Stocks Rise After a 3-Day Pullback

SUMMARY:

- Stocks rise after a 3-day pullback, ending 'losing streak' and keeping the same action in place, just don't generate any pre-weekend excitement.
- Oil, gold jump ahead of a weekend as weekends now have to factor in rising geopolitical issues.
- There they go again: European bond yields screaming back up.
- KB Homes demand plunges, New Home Sales drop versus the expected rise, and large revisions to prior data are discouraging.
- Lots of data next week but watch for earnings warnings thanks to higher prices, tougher comps (remember FedEx).
- Market character has not changed so we look to play more emerging leaders while tending current leaders that may be losing the mojo.

No change at all as market shakes of negatives to rally back from a weak open.

The market did what you would expect it to do in an uptrend after a three-day pullback: It bounced on Friday. It ended the "losing streak" that I heard talked about before the open. Yes, the market was in a three day, horrid losing streak where it had rallied and retraced roughly a third of the move off of that last low and was holding over support. That left it in position to what? End its losing streak, I guess. It was preposterous. Listening to the financial stations you will get that kind of nonsense. It is totally out of perspective. They say "Today oil is surging" or "Today oil is plunging." It all depends on whether it is holding the trend or breaking the trend. You get the idea.

Stocks bounced as we would expect them to do after a three-day pullback given that they are still in this uptrend. Everything was normal. Nothing changed as of Friday. Of course, the bounce was rather anemic. It did not do a lot to change the situation, particularly on SP600 as it is still below the prior bear market high. It has yet to make a breakout that will stick above that prior peak. It is in position to move, making a higher low; but it has done that before as well. Maybe MACD will pick up the pace and it will make the break. Again, on Friday it did not do anything to change the character of the market. That in itself did not answer a lot of questions.

Looking at the action on the day, the futures were all over the map. They were down but moving higher up toward the flatline before the open. But they sold off sharply when the news came out that New Home Sales for February were worse than expected. There were some pretty ugly revisions. They did not make the headlines, but I think the market saw some of that. It did not last for long, however. Look at that reversal doji. A big reach lower, a reversal, and volume picked up on the move. Voila. The bids came back in on the dip, investors rallied stocks once more on a pullback. This is very instructive. You see the dip, the reversal, the rally. Note how it made it up to these prior levels, stalled a bit, and then burst through.

Often it will not come up and touch it; they will stall and consolidate before they get there and then explode through there. That is exactly what happened. It came back to test sitting right on top of that early session double top. It does not matter if it was premarket or not because that is where the trade was. It formed those pyramids higher for the rest of the session, riding up the 15 minute moving average. A nice spurt at the end of the day did not hurt at all.

It was not a grand day. There were relatively modest gains.

SP500, +0.3%; NASDAQ, +0.15%; Dow, +0.27%; SP600, +0.98%; SOX, +0.26%

NASDAQ 100 was down, meaning the large cap tech stocks were not performing that well. AAPL had an interesting day. The BATS exchange IPO was out. It was trading its own stock on its own exchange, and it was trading for 0. Not the day they expected. There were some other mixups as well. On that exchange, on the day of your IPO, AAPL sold at $452. That triggered the circuit breakers and the trades were cancelled, but it was a travesty for the IPO and for the company. Before the day was over, they stopped trading and just pulled the IPO. Those poor son of a guns. But it was not a good day. The BATS exchange was referred to as the "bats-it" exchange after that, if you get my drift. It was comical in a sad way; you had to feel sorry for them.

The market moved to the upside. Nothing grand, but after three days the market did rise again. It was not any kind of glory, though, just a bounce off of near support. Given it was a weekend, we were not too excited about the move. If it had done something extra special, we may have been engaged, but there was no point with SP600 still below its prior peaks. With so much intrigue potential over the weekend with the Iran/Israel situation, it is not worth moving into those plays. Indeed, there are plenty of good setups for next week, and we can participate in those if the market wants to continue the rally. Perhaps we would see SP600 break out and join SP500, the Dow, and NASDAQ above its prior bear market highs.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. 1.3258 versus 1.3181 euro. The dollar sold off. That was interesting given some geopolitical intrigue. Perhaps it was the economic data that was somewhat disappointing. New Home Sales were not that great. On the other hand, there were problems in Spain and Greece with their bond yields surging back to the upside. For whatever reason the dollar sold off. It is still holding up right at the 50 day EMA. It still has to prove itself. Looking back, it is just below some important levels but is holding some interim peaks.


Bonds. 2.23% versus 2.29% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds had a good day. A good upside week for bonds, recovering from the gutting they took the week before. Now they are up in this gap zone. We will see if they can continue to rally and move back above this key level that marked the bottom of the triangle. It was a week that saw some interesting moves in bonds as money continued to run their way. Yesterday we saw the 10 year TIPS trade at a negative yield. Pretty crazy, but that is the way things go when you have problems all over the world.


Gold. 1,662.50, +20.00. Gold responded favorably to the issues in the Middle East. There was a little fear trade going. It is not a recovery by any means. Gold has been beaten about the head and shoulders, but it is still fighting back and holding where it needs to hold.


Oil. 106.86, +1.52. Oil also enjoyed the old pre-weekend Iran/Israel issues. Oil rose and held the lateral pennant after the breakout. Oil is going to hold that until something happens in Iran. Either there is no issue or there is a break and oil surges.


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

VIX. VIX is down at lows. It is below the 2011 low, so surely that must mean that the market will sell off. It can mean that, but it does not have to mean that. It is still above lows hit in 2006 and 2007 before the market started to sell off. People associate that selloff with the mere fact that volatility is low. That is incorrect. Just because volatility is low does not suggest a selloff. A long time ago the market broke free of the notion that volatility was normal between 20-30. That is no longer the case. Volatility and how it impacts the market depends on whether a relationship is set up between the market moves, as it does from time to time (but those are short term moves). Longer term, volatility rises ahead of a selloff even as stocks rise. That is the key for the major moves that people look at volatility to suggest. Traders always talk about the correlation. Sometimes it sets up short term, but it is always present longer term, i.e., stocks rise and volatility rises as we saw in 2007. That is a signal that the market is ready to sell off big.

That is exactly what happened in 1999 into early 2000. Volatility started to run higher at the turn of the year in 2000 as the stock market ran higher. That was a telltale sign that the market was topping. We do not have that right how. Volatility is not running higher as the stock market is running higher. The mere fact that it is low does not mean that it will sell off. We have had volatility much lower for much longer periods of time, and these were prosperous times for the market. I hope I have made that point clear. I have to make it from time to time because I hear so many people on the financial stations misrepresenting what volatility means.


Volume. NASDAQ, -5%, 1.41B; NYSE, -6%, 662M. The day was nothing special. We had an upside day where volume fell. On Thursday we had a downside day that saw volume rise on the NYSE. We had more selling volume than we have had upside volume. That is not a good thing, but (and this is a big but), it is not hugely big volume either way. I know volumes overall are down a good 25% from years gone by, but my point is the relative volume from day to day is low and the change in the relative volume is low. It is not a situation where you are seeing big spikes of volume one way or the other. There are days where you get an outsized volume day such as February 29, or again on the selloff day of March 6. Volume cracked above average. Then we got an upside volume day on March 13, again on the March 14, and one more on March 15. They were upside volume, and then we had expiration; throw that one out the window.

Then on the downside, the volume was not bumping as high as it was to the upside on this run. It was not nearly as high as it was on the earlier time. We are not getting that distribution that would suggest the market is emptying out the cupboard, so to speak. What do I mean by that? If there is a lot of downside volume in other words on days that stocks sell, volume is high and it is low as the market rebounds, then you are taking the goods off the shelves on the down days. You are not restocking them on the up days as much as you are taking off the shelves on the down days. If you keep that up for enough days (usually a week or so on that action), then all of the goods are off the shelves, and it is time to restock. To do that the market has to go down to the store, restock, and then move back to the upside. That is my simplistic grocery store analogy, but I think it is clear. We are not getting that here. The market is mostly rising, lately on higher volume, than it has been declining. That makes this a perfect 1-2-3 test with a further reach down on Friday and a reversal, as you can see on the SP500.


Breadth. NASDAQ, 2:1; NYSE 2.5:1. The NYSE was pushed buy those small caps that were performing quite nicely.


Bulls versus bears. I am borrowing this from Investor's Business Daily. A big jump in bulls up to 48.4 from 43.6. At the same time, bears fell to 23.6 versus the 26.6 shown last week. What does this mean? Investors were turning more bearish with bulls falling and bears rising even as the market rose. The breaks to the new highs by SP500 joining the Dow and the NASDAQ broke sentiment higher as well. A lot of investment advisors took this as a positive and are back on the "everything is roses" parade. This is not an extreme level, but it is approaching the highs that were hit in past peaks. In April of 2011 as the market peaked out, you were looking at highs near 60 as close as February. A good selloff took some of the froth out of the investment advisors and sentiment, and it put it on a better track to move higher. This is another indication, similar to VIX but somewhat different, that the market can continue higher. In other words, this will not prevent the market from moving higher from here just as volatility at the low level it is right now will not prevent the market from moving higher either.


THE CHARTS

SP500. There was the breakout by SP500 a couple of weeks back, the additional rally, and then this week's pullback. A nice Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday pullback to support. The Friday tap a little lower, and then a reversal to the upside. Volume did not scream higher. Obviously it was lower, so maybe a little distribution Thursday, maybe no accumulation Friday. But that is the way it has been on this rally. You are playing patterns more than anything else. Volumes count when volumes say something, but they are not saying much. Overall, volumes are telling you this rally cannot last, and ultimately we will have an ugly ending. Overall, that is what will likely happen. It is going on happen someday, but the question is when. Right now there is nothing suggesting that it will turn. Leaders are still hanging in there, and other leaders are trying to emerge to take their spot in case they do falter.


DJ30. DJ30 had its pullback, but it was not a 1-2-3. It was kind of a 4 out of 5 to the downside, but it held the 20 day EMA and the prior peak. It even tapped at it on the Friday low and Thursday as well. Then it reversed for a gain. Not a barn burner, not setting any records, but looking decent. MACD is worrisome, but it is shaping up. It did not do anything to change the trend of modest pullbacks and buys on the dip.


DJ20. We got that flop back to the 50 day EMA on Thursday, but an undercut and a rebound. Maybe the transports will try to drag their sorry rears back to the upside. This even with FDX saying they have issues with their business. People are going to trucks versus airfreight because it is so expensive. In any event, the transports can put in a higher low and break to the upside. Maybe they can take out this prior peak that they failed to do last time. That would be the transports, the small caps, and the semiconductors failing to take out those prior highs, but at least they are keeping themselves in the game and giving themselves shots to do it by making higher lows.


NASDAQ. NASDAQ was a leader all week and indeed on this rally. It faltered and had somewhat of a pullback, but it was not much of one. It still showed great relative strength even as it tested. Very strong, holding above the 10 day EMA, tapping below it on Friday but recovering as well. I guess it got a bit of an AAPL dip there, even though that trade was canceled. Very sold. 1-2-3 pullback and not even that because NASDAQ held up very well on the week.


SP600. The small caps remain the issue, and I am a broken record to this. They are making a higher low just as the transports are. They are trying to hold, at a logical level at that April 2011 peak. They want to mount another bounce off of that level. They are not dead yet (the old Monty Python and the Holy Grail mantra) and it is hanging in there. Maybe they can make the move. Why? They are so important because they are an economic harbinger, blah, blah, blah. You get the point. It will be one to watch again this week.


SOX. We should watch the semiconductors as well. They look pretty good. They did not pull back much, very much like NASDAQ. A simple, easy, shallow slide to the 10 day EMA. Maybe this higher low sets up the break over that February peak. Something it has not been able to do.


Where does that leave us with the indices? Not in bad shape. Same position. Showing the overall upward bias even with the small caps bumping up against that high and not able to make the break yet. They have not made the break, but here is an important point: They have not broken down either. They have had all kinds of chance to do it, but they have not. That speaks fairly loudly if you ask me.


LEADERSHIP

Retail. RL had a tough day, and it had a tough Thursday as well. It broke lower on Friday but managed to rebound. It managed to hold, reverse, and hold above the lows in its range after the breakaway gap. That fact kept us in the play. We will see if it can continue to move to the upside. NKE had a tough day after earnings. It did not perform well, but it held the 50 day EMA and bounced. Now we see if it can recover and move to the upside. COH looks like it is having a little issue as well. It has done this before and bounced right back. Note how on Friday it recovered nicely on volume as the buyers came back in.

Various apparel makers are having a bit of an issue, but not rolling over. DRI has been reporting some less-than-stellar earnings of late. It saw better results at its Olive Garden. Still lagging and bounced off of the 50 day EMA. Maybe there will be something there that will send it to the upside. PNRA was moving laterally in its trend last week, but not being spectacular. We are noticing that on a lot of these plays. They maybe moving higher, but not spectacularly so. Then you throw in one like TJX, and it continues to perform well with a great move over the past month. But it, too, may flatten out. It has not yet, but it may. Okay, we will not worry about that. As long as it runs, we are more than happy. HLF is one that has run. It has come back to test. Normal test thus far, and it looks fine to continue. Will it? WFM has broken below its trendline. It is trying to move up. It will be an important week for it as well. Some leaders may be coming under fire, and that is something we have seen in many of the different sectors.

Industrial. CAT bounced on Friday. Lower volume on the bounce. It may fill that gap and give us the downside play we were looking for initially.

Financial. Banks and financials overall had a pretty good week even though they were down to end the week. WFC closed at its 10 day EMA, hardly in any danger. MS actually bounced Friday. The regional banks are holding up. HSBC and HBAB, this is a nice pullback to test the breakout. That could be an interesting play. It has a lot of resistance overhead, but it is working its way back to the upside. The financials still look good, and if they find support, the market will perform well.

Technology. VELT is a small software company with a nice pattern. GLUU had a 21% move today. Not bad. Some of the small techs are actually able to produce some solid moves. ATHN is trying to make the break to the upside. CHKP is breaking higher. If it continues to move, it looks pretty good to pick up.

There are a lot of stocks in patterns that are not extended. That is what I have been saying for the last two weeks. They will lead this market. If they do continue to move higher and move up to leadership status, the market will look good working its way forward.



THE ECONOMY

That was a short respite: European bond yields jump.

Is the Financial Facility losing its efficacy in the European recession?


The new 2023 (10 year) Greek bonds, just two weeks old, are experiencing a rough childhood. Prices plunged 17.5% and sent yields over 20%. Ten year yields over 20%. Two bailouts in the bank and bonds are still unable to hold any value. Bailout three is apparently coming but will Germany agree to part with more money without something in return, say the Greek islands themselves?

Spanish bonds are starting to get edgy as well. They were starting to behave after the financial facility was placed, but now Spanish 10 year bonds are yielding over 5.5%, the highest in 11 months.

It appears as if the carefully planned EU recovery is not holding to plan. The problem is a recession is the last thing the Continent needs as the economic activity needed to bring the Greek and other debt to GDP ratios in line according to the bailout cannot occur without robust growth. But the austerity is preventing growth as well. Double edged sword and frankly things do not look good for the EU.


New Home Sales sports worrisome numbers and KBH misses big on sales.

New Home Sales, February (10:00): 313K actual versus 323K expected, 318K prior (revised from 321K)


The numbers look relatively innocuous with a 1.6% drop. A 1.3% gain was expected, however.

Revisions: 318K from 321K does not look bad either. BUT . . . that is down from 336K in December, -5.5% month/month. That is the largest decline in over a year.

Inventories: Total units for sale remained at 150K for the second month but with the lower sales numbers that pushed inventories to 5.8 months to deplete.

This is an ALL-TIME low (since records started in 1963) in new homes available for sale. All time. I searched Bloomberg, Briefing.com, and other financial sites. CNBC actually noted the 150K was a record low. Bloomberg made no mention of the 150K number, record low or no. Is that good news or bad? There need to be fewer homes for sale to ultimately firm prices and turn the market. Consider, however, the following.


KB Homes reported earnings and also that orders for new homes dropped 9% in the quarter. Not great, but then figure that +20% was expected. Thus the above 150K figure is not because of a lot of sales, but also drops in new home construction. Combined with the distressed sales of existing homes that still make up over 30% of the market and you get the lowest number of new homes on the market since the records were kept.

Chart anticipating a drop? Double top, lower MACD on a nominal, low volume new high.


TO VIEW THE ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:

Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.html



THE MARKET

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 14.82; -0.75
VXN: 16.57; -0.26
VXO: 14.41; -0.68

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.05; -0.06

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 48.4% versus 43.6%. Bouncing right back up after three week decline. 47.9% before that and 51% even before. Bullish sentiment is returning. Again, it is not excessively bullish. They are off the 55+ level even near the highs as investors get a bit pensive. Bigger picture that is good for the upside. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. Now the indices are back at that level and so are the bulls. All the more reason to watch this action at the prior highs. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 23.6% versus 26.6%. After a three week stint near 25 to 26% bears are falling. As with bulls, not excessive either way. Solidly lower after spending weeks at 30%ish. Not at a bearish level but they are growing more confident even as the market hits the prior highs and is not blasting on through. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +4.6 points (+0.15%) to close at 3067.92
Volume: 1.414B (-5.29%)

Up Volume: 695.89M (+232.17M)
Down Volume: 711.23M (-318.77M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.27 to 1

New Highs: 72 (+16)
New Lows: 20 (-1)


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +4.33 points (+0.31%) to close at 1397.11
NYSE Volume: 662M (-6.1%)

Up Volume: 2.39B (+1.929B)
Down Volume: 956.62M (-2.283B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.47 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.85 to 1

New Highs: 75 (+23)
New Lows: 11 (-8)


DJ30

Stats: +34.59 points (+0.27%) to close at 13080.73
Volume DJ30: 130M shares Friday versus 122M shares Thursday.


MONDAY

Next week we have a full slate of economic data from Monday through Friday. We start with Pending Home Sales on Monday. More housing data. It played a big role this week. Case/Shiller, Consumer Confidence, Durable Orders. They we come back with the third iteration of GDP. Initial Claims on Thursday with that. Then Friday Personal Income and Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment. This will be the final for March. We got a load of data coming out. We will be able to ride the rails with that, not to mention the geopolitical data and what is going on with Europe with the bond yields starting to spike again.

That is all important. It will be very important, and the political campaign will be important. But we are also coming into earnings season. That will be important because we are anticipating that earnings will start to abate. The comparisons are tougher, and the growth has been less. Despite all of this talk about expanding economic recovery, we will have lower earnings. We saw NKE's gross margins falling. Why? Costs. Costs will play a role across the board. There has been a lot of good cost management to this point, but companies have done about all they can do to cut the fat. They have not hired anybody or have not been higher much. They have been holding on to their money because they anticipated higher costs ahead. Higher costs for the raw materials or from regulations such as Obamacare or EPA mandates about what they have to do with respect to their energy consumption. The Energy Department is putting coal companies out of business and raising the energy cost to heat and cool buildings. And then the farmers with the Labor Department passed a bunch of regulations about what kids can do on the farm. A lot of kids now cannot even ride the golf cart down to take care of the animals if they are not 16. It is insane, but that is what we have.

There are a lot of extra costs built in. These regulations are not free. Those costs go up to companies, and they will pass the cost onto us sooner than later. It will be one crescendo. We have energy cost going up, we have the cost of regulations going up, and looks like we will have taxes going up. Do you wonder why companies are hoarding all that money? They know taxes will go up. They have this money that they made and paid tax on, so will they spend it? They will be very careful with what they do with it.

We think earnings warnings could start up this coming week. We could see some problems. Some of the stocks that are already kind of wobbly could be an issue. We need to be diligent with our positions. If they break down (and that is what happens, leaders break down and recycle through the market), we need to go ahead and book the rest of the gains on them and put our money in the stocks that are the up-and-comers I have been talking about. They are out there, and they have some interesting patterns. ABCD patterns. Here is SZYM with a nice flag pattern. There are many different solid patterns out there on the up-and-comers that we can take advantage of.

We will focus on those still as our next battery of upside. Nothing has really changed in the market to alter the character of the modest rallies followed by modest pullbacks, followed by modest rallies. We will keep an eye on the SP600, of course, because it is something of an issue not being able to make the break. That may just be a formality as it makes a higher low. If the market wants to rally next week, odds are it will pull SP600 with it.

What do we do? We want to be at the table to eat when hedge funds and money market funds put their money to work in these other stocks. You can see them developing their patterns. We made money on many of the stocks when they came off of the lows and made us some great gains as they broke higher out of those nice, rounded bottoms. The ones that are doing it now, we want to do the same thing and make great gains on them. All the while protecting what we have made on those that have rallied but may be showing a bit of wear-and-tear.

Have a great weekend! I will see you on Monday for the start of a busy week.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 3067.92

Resistance:
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low


Support:
3042 from 5/2000 low
3026 from 10/2000 low
The 20 day EMA at 3015
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 2922
2910 is the recent March 2012 low
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
The 200 day SMA at 2691
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low


S&P 500: Closed at 1397.11

Resistance:
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 1383
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1357 is the July 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1352
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1318.51 is the May 2011 low
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1264
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low


Dow: Closed at 13,080.73
Resistance:
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak


Support:
13,056 is the February 2012 high
12,876 is the May high
The 50 day EMA at 12,841
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 12,063
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak


Economic Calendar

March 19 - Monday
NAHB Housing Market , March (10:00): 28 actual versus 31 expected, 28 prior (revised from 29)

March 20 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, February (8:30): 698K actual versus 705K expected, 706K prior (revised from 699K)
Building Permits, February (8:30): 717K actual versus 695K expected, 682K prior (revised from 676K)

March 21 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/17 (7:00): -7.4% actual versus -2.4% prior
Existing Home Sales, February (10:00): 4.59M actual versus 4.60M expected, 4.63M prior (revised from 4.57M)
Crude Inventories, 03/17 (10:30): -1.160M actual versus 1.750M prior

March 22 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/17 (8:30): 348K actual versus 355K expected, 353K prior (revised from 351K)
Continuing Claims, 03/10 (8:30): 3352K actual versus 3363K expected, 3361K prior (revised from 3343K)
FHFA Housing Price I, January (10:00): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% prior (revised from 0.7%)
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.7% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.4%)

March 23 - Friday
New Home Sales, February (10:00): 313K actual versus 323K expected, 318K prior (revised from 321K)


March 26 - Monday
Pending Home Sales, February (10:00): 0.5% expected, 2.0% prior

March 27 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, January (9:00): -3.8% expected, -4.0% prior
Consumer Confidence, March (10:00): 70.0 expected, 70.8 prior

March 28 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/24 (7:00): -7.4% prior
Durable Orders, February (8:30): 2.5% expected, -3.7% prior (revised from -4.0%)
Durable Orders -ex Transports, February (8:30): 1.0% expected, -3.0% prior (revised from -3.2%)
Crude Inventories, 03/24 (10:30): -1.160M prior

March 29 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/24 (8:30): 350K expected, 348K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/17 (8:30): 3385K expected, 3352K prior
GDP - Third Estimate, Q4 (8:30): 3.0% expected, 3.0% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q4 (8:30): 0.9% expected, 0.9% prior

March 30 - Friday
Personal Income, February (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior
Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.2% prior
PCE Prices - Core, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 62.0 expected, 64.0 prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, March (9:55): 74.3 expected, 74.3 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2012 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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