Monday, January 09, 2012

Solid Jobs Report Reflects Economic Improvement, But...


- A solid jobs report reflects the economic improvement, but stocks did not buy into it, at least on Friday.
- Rare revisions to the unemployment rate, the simple are you employed or not survey, raises eyebrows and questions about data accuracy and perhaps explains the market's lukewarm response.
- Dollar and bonds still acting as a safe haven for European funds.
- Stocks close the week with a flat session, unable to build upon the Tuesday, start of the year rally.
- Boat show indicator starts to turn positive but job cuts in 2012 are already high.
- Market still sports many levels of positive patterns supporting a continued move toward the prior highs.

Cool response to a decent jobs report suggests investors don't believe everything they are told in an election year.

Looking at the morning chart of the SP500 futures, you would not have thought a good jobs report was released. Looking at the chart of the day, it also does not look like much is happening. SP500 actually closed lower on the session. That somewhat belies a jobs report that was solid. It was not great, but it was pretty good. It topped expectations at 200K nonfarm payrolls, 50K more than originally anticipated. There was a revision to the downside in November by 20K. When you factor in some upside revisions in October, it was just an 8K job write down between the two months. The nonfarm private payrolls topped expectations, coming in at 212K. That topped the 170K expected. The prior month was also revised down to 120K from 140K.

The unemployment rate dropped 0.2% to 8.5% after it was revised up to 8.7% in November. It is rare to have an upside revision. It is strange because the unemployment number is completely based on a household survey. What reason would there be to revise when it is based on actual calls they made? That put the entire read of the unemployment rate into an even more skewed and skeptical eye than usual. A lot of people think there is some monkey business going on with the employment data. It just so happens that we get into an election year and suddenly the unemployment rate drops substantially below 9%, where it has been for years. It was pretty strange to have a revision, even if it was to the upside. As noted, it brought some skeptics out, and that was reflected in the morning action.

Looking at the intraday chart, you do not see the kind of enthusiasm you would expect this report to generate. There was more good news on the report with the average workweek. It bumped up to 34.4 hours when it was expected to hold steady at 34.3. It has been stagnant at 34.3 for months. What does a tenth of a percent bump mean? It reflects 200K jobs. Lo and behold, there are your 200K jobs. It was a solid report, and it reflects the improvement in the economy over the prior four months just as we felt it would. We also felt that given a decent, solid report, the market might want to bump higher. It might break it free to move to the upside after a good surge on Tuesday, and then a drift for the rest of the week. It continued to drift.

When the news came out, there was an initial pop. Just before the embargo was released, you could see the SP futures jump to the upside. The news hit a bit early. Before CNBC or Bloomberg got the news out, it surged to the upside and then fell back. Futures were up to begin. They got a bit more juice when the news came out, but then they fell back down. As the market opened up it traded lower. It recovered but then range traded for the rest of the day and closed virtually flat. Once again, the growth sectors were leading the way. They lost one of their important components, the SP600, as it turned in a negative session. As you recall on Thursday, there was the triumvirate of NASDAQ, SP600, and the SOX all posting solid gains in a growth renaissance of sorts. But it was not so much of a renaissance on Friday. It was a bit disappointing after a couple of months of solid economic data and a week that showed continued economic improvement. Perhaps some of the news was already built into the gain in the market that we saw on Tuesday.

Even with the disappointing action on Friday, we still look at the market overall in position to continue the moving higher, with SP500 clearing the October peak and then trading up toward the 2011 highs from April, May, and July. We see too many good patterns out there from too many solid sectors to think otherwise. It is interesting because the jobs report somewhat reflects this. There are positives on every sector of jobs growth. It was not huge growth, but construction gained 17K. I believe they said it was the first gain since 2006.

There were widespread employment gains. There are widespread good patterns in the market. With that kind of support for this move, you tend to have continued upside moves -- at least for the near term while those patterns somewhat consummate themselves. After that maybe it rolls back over. A lot of people said we could see similar action in the economic data as we saw in 2010 and 2011 (as I have been saying for a couple of months now). Improvement in late 2010 and then a peak and a decline in 2011. Lo and behold, I am reading all week, especially on Thursday and Friday, that we will have that same kind of action. A weakening 2012 before it picks up once again. But it all remains to be seen.

What we are worried about now is what we are always worried about. That is what is happening right here and right now. We keep an eye on the horizon, of course, so we can take what the market gives.


Once again the action in the other markets is getting somewhat turned around. Thursday the action somewhat behaving as you would think it would in a normal time. In other words, we had some improving U.S. economic data across the board, and we saw the dollar move higher and bonds move lower. That made a lot of sense. The dollar should strengthen if the economy strengthens. Bonds should move lower and yields should move higher if the economy is strengthening. It makes sense; you do not need the safety of Treasuries, you do not need to grab that yield. You put risk money out there to make a bigger return. Plus, money will be worth more down the road than it is now, so interest rates should rise. It makes sense (hey, something in economics actually does).

Dollar. 1.2730 versus 1.2788 euro. The dollar surged to the upside yet again. A big week for the greenback as it continues to break higher. There are still a lot of worries about what will happen in the eurozone. Will it break up? Will there be defaults? Will there be a smaller eurozone? Those clouds will continue to hound the continent as well as the U.S. markets through 2012. But the dollar was stronger because we have a stronger economy. And Europe still stinks -- I will admit that.

Bonds. 1.95% versus 1.99% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds were surging on the session as well. The 10 year has been hovering around that 2% level. There was a sharp break. Bonds rallied and yields tumbled. That is the opposite of what they should be doing on strong U.S. data. Then again, we are not in a situation where the U.S. is making its own wake. We have to worry about Europe, and I think we will still have a real problem out of China. I think the economy will go into some collapse in different areas. Real estate over there is just primed, but that is another story. We have that European issue, and that will continue to attract European currency to U.S. Treasuries and the safe havens. Therefore we see bonds rally.

It is not just the banks putting the money over here. ECB overnight deposits rose to a record yet again. The banks are keeping the money in Europe. They are keeping it near at hand, too; they are not just shipping it to the U.S. and buying Treasuries in a carry trade (although some of them are). We may have a possibility of some improvement in Europe as money gets put to work over there. I hope that is why they are putting money in the ECB overnight deposits. Then it is close at hand and when they need it they can use it and invest it instead of just parking it in the U.S. and doing that carry trade that U.S. banks did for so long. They borrowed for 0% from the Fed and then bought bonds and got a guaranteed return. There is still money going into U.S. bonds even with a stronger U.S. economy. That tells you there are still problems in the rest of the world, and they are seeking the safety of the U.S. Treasury market. As the dollar rallies, obviously they are buying U.S. dollars as well.

Gold. 1,617.30, -5.60. Gold was off slightly. Gold trades in many different markets and closes at different times. Looking at this chart, it looks like it is up and down. Do not get too bent out of shape about the actual closing numbers; it is the trend that matters. Here we have a doji below the 200 day EMA. It is at other resistance as well. It is right at the resistance from the September and October lows and the consolidation back in August. It could still fall from here. I am still looking at a downside play in gold.

Oil. 101.77, -1.45. Oil took a modest downside day. Still in great shape to make a new break higher. It is trying to put in a higher low near the 10 day EMA at the top of its range. It bounced up and has come back to test. If it puts in this higher low, it is in excellent position to break to the upside. No reason oil should fall now, despite troubles in Europe and despite troubles in China. That is, unless they become front-burner, raging issues. Iran is causing a lot of trouble in the Middle East, and that is helping prop prices higher despite a larger than expected build in the U.S. inventories announced on Thursday.


Volume. -7.5% NASDAQ, 1.7B; -16% NYSE, 648M. Volume fell off the table sharply.

Breadth. -1.2:1 NASDAQ; -1.2:1 NYSE. Breadth was mealy-mouthed as well.


SP500. We had a couple of higher lows formed in late November and mid December. You had a higher high, and now it is trying to break over the October high on SP500. We had a consolidation, a big break to the upside on Tuesday as the New Year trade got underway, and then pretty much a lateral move to a slight drift higher to end the week. That leaves the SP500 just below the October peak. October clocks in at 1285 on the high, and SP500 closed almost 1278. It is right there. It has put in higher lows, and it is consolidating laterally. It is in good shape to make the break higher.

The question is whether it will get the impetus to get that break. A lot of patterns still look good. The financials have been improving. They took the day off Friday, and that is why we got no traction on the SP500. Overall, its position is one of strength and there are still good patterns to push it and the other indices higher. This coming week we may get a little more lateral move. Maybe a slip back, or maybe not. It looks good either way. We could get a little giveback or just a new break to the upside. We look for it to take out that October peak. If it does, that is a positive sign for the next week or two for a rally up toward those April and July peaks. We are looking for a good, sharp rally. Then we may get the pullback. Some people say 1300 is the peak, and it may be. We just have to take what it gives and let the play run. For now we have the upside bias that we wanted to see. It is playing out the way we wanted it to.

DJ30. DJ30 was down on the day, but it was a modest loss. It broke to that new high. It is testing it as the 10 day EMA rises above it. I think when the 10 day gets there, it will make its move. It has a good shot to get to 12750. That is the double top from July. That would be a very good move for it. That puts it up another 400 points or so. That can make us money on the positions we already have that are already logging good gains.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ edged higher. It was one of the market leaders again, although it did not make much headway. It is above the 200 day EMA. It is at other resistance from way back, some other gap points March and January. It is still roughly at the early-December peak. It has moved just past it, but it has a lot of resistance still overhead. It is fighting, but it is making some moves, getting help from stocks such as AAPL, GOOG, NTGR, and other big name techs that are moving to the upside for now. They are showing good momentum and carrying this pre-earnings into early earnings rally to the upside.

SP600. The small caps could not make it a threesome when it came to the growth indices moving higher again. They faded back 0.3%. Still in this lateral move. Looked like they wanted to make the break on Tuesday. Tried it, did it, but could not hold it. Now they are still measuring it, moving laterally over the 200 day EMA and right at that late-October peak. In excellent position, as with the Dow, to continue to the upside.

SOX. SOX was up. It was a market-leading kind of move, although it was a weak move. There were semiconductors moving, breaking higher off of the lows in their patterns. That is positive. This will help. The SOX is still mired in its trading range, but it is trying to make a move to the upside. If it does rally higher over the next couple of weeks, the rest of the market will benefit from that. I am not saying it will make the breakout even over the November peaks, but it does not have to for us to make money. If it merely moves to those levels, that means the rest of the market will break above its October peaks and go into that April-to-July trading range and bounce up toward the top of the that range. Then we make some nice money on this end of 2011/beginning of 2012 rally that we have been looking for and have been playing. Why have we been playing it? The individual stock patterns have been saying please come in and buy us because we are going higher.


I have been talking a lot about stocks that are forming good patterns and moving higher. Stocks that have done so already and others that are coming up to fill in the void and provide that extra support for the momentum to the upside. Those waves of new buys coming in. That is always the lifeblood of any rally. It has to live off the initial stocks that move higher, and then it has others step up to take the baton, so to speak, and continue the move.

Financial. Financials have finally started to step up over the past week. The gap higher on Tuesday started money into the sector, and then they continued up through Thursday. Friday was not their day. They were off, but still just modestly, and holding their gains. JPM was off slightly, but it had a very good week under its belt. WFC is the same situation. A great week to the upside after clearing the 200 day EMA a couple of weeks back and testing it. It is moving quite well. Financial institutions have joined the party and are moving up. If they continued to do so, the SP500 makes the break over the October peak, and we continued this rally up near those April and July peaks.

Medical/Healthcare. Healthcare is not getting a lot of play but it has been doing fine. JAZZ had a nice 10% move up, making a super break to the upside. MYL is testing back this week, but it has had a great run under its belt so far. TEVA has rallied up to its 200 day EMA. Looks as if it wants to continue on.

Retail. Retail has had its home runs and its strikeouts, but it is also holding up well and continuing to the upside. Many stores are doing the upside move, continuing up from Thursday. PIR continued its move after a great blast upside on Thursday. We took some gain off the table for LULU on Friday because it ran right up to its upper trendline. Was not quite to our target, but it was very close. After a nice move up for the week, we decided to bank some gain before next Monday just to have it in pocket. SCSS broke to the upside, looking good. Very solid move. Retail is hanging in there. It is not only those patterns that have already moved, but we see stocks that look like they could move as well. GES could make the upside break as well and continue to provide support to the market and to this sector overall.

Technology/Semiconductors. Technology has tried to step up and lead over the last few days. GOOG is pulling back, but it is at the 10 day EMA. It might give us another buy for a continued bounce to the upside. AAPL was churning away again, moving up another 4+ clicks on the session. SNDK looks like it was trying to break higher out of its triangle. Other chips are looking solid as well. ALTR looks like it might try to make a break to the upside. ATML is moving up off of its lows, breaking higher on some solid volume. During the week, MU gapped higher and rallied up to its 200 day EMA.

These are some of the chips I am talking about. While the stocks overall may not look that great, it is getting some support from various chips. Those could really add to the move to the upside over the next couple of weeks and put some life into this market (something more than just this gradual drift we have seen). I could show you a lot more, but I need something left to put on the report. It is where these stocks are set up in these bases. These rounded bottoms or trading ranges -- whatever you want to look at. There are many different patterns out there. We are seeing a lot of little triangles at the bottom of a selloff. They are setting up to move higher. We see them in many sectors, just as we saw jobs growth in many sectors.

I cannot emphasize enough what a positive this is for the market. You have to have a lot of stocks in position to move up, and in a staggered position. It is like buying fruit. If you buy a dozen peaches and they are all ripe, they will start to rot before you can eat them. Or if you have some that are very ripe and some that are real really green, you may not be able to eat all the ripe peaches before they rot, and then the others you have to wait a week before they are ready. But if you stagger them, then you can eat peaches constantly and enjoy them. The market comes up, these others ripen, they move, and you eat them. You grab the others as they come along and ripen. You get the idea with respect to how important it is to have several good sectors in position to move higher to keep rallies moving.



VIX. The VIX is trading down to the low it hit two weeks ago. The market had a little struggle at this level. There is a support level here. It may try to bounce, and the market may try to consolidate a bit. When we look at the charts, you will see it is already consolidating. I am not putting too much stock in what the VIX is showing now. It is not an absolute correlation. A lot of talk about it, but the talk has not done anyone much good. Everyone has been saying the market is going to fall or what have you. Yet the market keeps rising. They said the Christmas rally would end, and then the market keeps going up. It is not going gangbusters, but it is showing that positive action. That is the low to high action. Once again we saw the market dip on Friday and then it recovered as bids came back. They did not knock the cover off the ball, but they did come back in. It is a positive, though it was not raging. As long as the buy stays there my thesis remains in place that the market continues to move up.

VIX: 20.63; -0.85
VXN: 20.52; -0.88
VXO: 19.77; -0.37

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; +0.13

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 49.5% versus 50.5%. Fading modestly on a week of consolidation ahead of the first of the year, but still well above the 45.3% from three weeks back. Still probing the overdone range and could be part of the picture that tops out the current in January, but it is not there yet. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 30.5% versus 29.5%. Right back up to the same level sported three weeks back as bears remain skeptical. Skeptics in the face of a move is a good sign the move continues. Lower but not anywhere near suggesting investors are carefree. The average the past month and more is 30%. The index spent seven weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: +4.36 points (+0.16%) to close at 2674.22
Volume: 1.693B (-7.54%)

Up Volume: 994.71M (-375.29M)
Down Volume: 676.22M (+239.24M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.55 to 1

New Highs: 43 (+2)
New Lows: 34 (+7)


Stats: -3.25 points (-0.25%) to close at 1277.81
NYSE Volume: 648M (-16.17%)

Up Volume: 1.24B (-1.39B)
Down Volume: 2.28B (+670M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.52 to 1

New Highs: 107 (+1)
New Lows: 14 (-4)


Stats: -55.78 points (-0.45%) to close at 12359.92
Volume DJ30: 131M shares Friday versus 158M shares Thursday.


Next week we will have more economic data, but I want to talk about a couple of other economic indicators first before I get into that. One of them is what I called the "boat show" indicator. The boat shows are just getting started now, and the New York one as has been underway. After a five-year decline in new boat sales, they are finally starting to see them rise. They have been on the rise since August 2011. During the recession, new boat sales fell 55%. Previously-owned boats declined only 7%. The pre-owned is the largest part of the market, but the new boats, just as in housing sales, are always important because it gives a better indication of the health of the market. If people are looking to buy new, they have the money and the confidence to do so.

There is an old saying in the economy that the luxury is the last to go down when the economy goes down and the first to come back when the economy comes back. Regardless of their size, boat sales are considered a luxury item. You need the extra cash to buy one. It is nice to see them improving in sales. We will have to see how the boat shows hold out, but that is a positive indication for the economy coming back. It flies somewhat in the face of the idea that the economy will go down in 2012. There are reasons for it to go down, but there are reasons to think it is on the comeback trail as well. The smaller boats are still outperforming the big ones. The small ones always come back faster. It will be interesting to see if the big luxury yachts come back this year.

Another important indicator is jobs. They were better on Friday, but there is another indicator out there. Already this year there have been 2,348 job cuts announced. Boeing has announced cuts. A solar company has announced cuts. And Pepsi will announce cuts as well. They will be significant. They will not be huge numbers, but already we are seeing job cuts as the economy is supposedly improving. That is something to keep an eye on as we move forward because jobs lag the economy. If we are seeing job cuts after seeing an improvement in the jobs numbers, that could indicate that we have seen the apex of the jobs recovery. Then we could start seeing it come back down over 2012, particularly if the economists saying that the economy will fall are actually correct.

As for the actual data next week, we have Consumer Credit along with Wholesale and Business Inventories. Retail Sales for December will be out on Thursday, and that will be big. Friday we have Michigan Sentiment. Those are the big ones for the week. That said, we have to go back and look at the market overall and what I anticipate ahead. It is basically what I have talked about earlier.

The bias is upside right now. There are plenty of good patterns in the market to continue the push to the upside. If we avoid any major problems out of Europe and any major problems from China, the market has a very good shot over the next 2-3 weeks of rising up into the initial rounds of earnings (starting next week) and putting in some good gains toward the July and even the April and late-May peaks. Again, that would put SP500 up around 1350. Plenty of room to run to the upside and make us a lot of money. We have great positions that are already moving. Indeed, we took just a bit of gain off the table on Friday. If we get some more days to the upside, even with this slow drift up, our plays are hitting or coming close to our targets.

As the market moves up, if it has another great surge as it did in mid December or late November, we will have plays hitting targets all over. That is exactly what we have been playing for. We will take partial profits on that, and then we will see how the market handles these peaks. If it struggles, and I think it might, we will book some more of the gain. We will leave a little bit there because if there is a breakout we want to be in those stocks. I have said it many times before: The market can run further than you ever think it could, either upside or downside. It can run more than you would ever rationally believe was possible. Why? Because the market always overshoots near term. Longer term it evens out, but near term it always overshoots. If it gets a good rally going, it can keep going and going. It has a tendency to do the opposite of what a lot of smart people think it should do -- or what your gut tells you it can do. If you rely on your gut when you are investing or trading in the market, you typically end up gutted.

Watch what the stocks are telling you. If they are saying "buy me" as MU said this week, then you buy them. If they bounce off of support such as BWLD did this week, you buy it. If you see a decent move or a decent pattern in a stock like FWLT and it starts to move, pick up some shares. If it works, you make good money. If it does not work, you have a good risk/reward point and you can get out of it. You are not hurt significantly. You have more risk to the gain than you have to the loss, and that is the way you play the game.

We have more exposure in great stocks now because we have good patterns out there. We will take advantage of it as long as the market continues. As Roy McAvoy said in Tin Cup, "You ride her till she bucks ya." Of course Roy was not that great a success. He was a great striker, but he did not have the mental aspect of the game. That is what you do by watching what the market tells you versus playing from your gut.

We will continue to watch what this market tells us. Right now I think it is telling us to continue buying. My caveat is that we may be getting to the point where we do not want to buy too many more stocks. We have a lot of good positions. If the market does rally up to the old highs and stalls, that will put our upside positions in with great gains for us. If we buy a lot of them ahead of the peaks, that leaves us in a position where we could be left high and dry when the tide goes out. We will play the stocks that have good patterns, that are not extended, and that can make us money in this kind of move. If we stay with stocks that are not extended, we will be fine.

I will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2674.22

2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2754 is the recent October 2011 high
2759 is the mid-May low
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak

The 200 day SMA at 2660
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2605
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2572 is the November 2-11 gap down point
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2441 is the November 2011 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows

S&P 500: Closed at 1277.81
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak

1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1259
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
The 50 day EMA at 1239
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1090 is the early September 2010 gap up point
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low

Dow: Closed at 12,359.92
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,876 is the May high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 50 day EMA at 11,978
The 200 day SMA at 11,955
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low

Economic Calendar

January 3 - Tuesday
ISM Index, December (10:00): 53.9 actual versus 53.4 expected, 52.7 prior
Construction Spending, November (10:00): 1.2% actual versus 0.5% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from 0.8%)
FOMC Minutes, 12/13 (14:00)

January 4 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/31 (7:00): -3.7% actual versus -2.6% prior
Factory Orders, November (10:00): 1.8% actual versus 2.1% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%)
Auto Sales, December (14:00): 4.36M prior
Truck Sales, December (14:00): 5.98M prior

January 5 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, December (7:30): 30.6% actual versus -12.8% prior
ADP Employment Change, December (8:15): 325K actual versus 180K expected, 204K prior (revised from 206K)
Initial Claims, 12/31 (8:30): 372K actual versus 375K expected, 387K prior (revised from 381K)
Continuing Claims, 12/24 (8:30): 3595K actual versus 3620K expected, 3617K prior (revised from 3601K)
ISM Services, December (10:00): 52.6 actual versus 53.0 expected, 52.0 prior
Crude Inventories, 12/31 (11:00): 2.209M actual versus 3.899M prior

January 6 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, December (8:30): 200K actual versus 150K expected, 100K prior (revised from 120K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, December (8:30): 212K actual versus 170K expected, 120K prior (revised from 140K)
Unemployment Rate, December (8:30): 8.5% actual versus 8.7% expected, 8.7% prior (revised from 8.6%)
Hourly Earnings, December (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior (revised from -0.1%)
Average Workweek, December (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.3 expected, 34.3 prior

January 9 - Monday
Consumer Credit, November (15:00): $7.6B prior

January 10 - Tuesday
Wholesale Inventories, November (10:00): 1.6% prior

January 11 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Purchasing Index, 01/07 (7:00): -3.7% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/07 (10:30): 2.209M prior

January 12 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/07 (8:30): 372K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/31 (8:30): 3595K prior
Retail Sales, December (8:30): 0.2% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, December (8:30): 0.2% prior
Business Inventories, November (10:00): 0.8% prior
Treasury Budget, December (14:00): -$78.1B prior

January 13 - Friday
Trade Balance, November (8:30): -$43.5B prior
Export Prices ex-agriculture, December (8:30): -0.1% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, December (8:30): -0.2% prior
Michigan Sentiment, January (9:55): 69.9 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2012 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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