Monday, January 30, 2012

GDP Tries to Stymie the Rally


- GDP tries to stymie the rally, but stocks recover in the afternoon.
- Still bumping the highs, still not breaking through.
- GDP at 2.8% is inflated by inventories adding almost 2 points to the total. This is recovery? Anyone could get this result by flooding the economy with dollars.
- GDP internals tell why Bernanke downplayed the economy Wednesday.
- Consumer Sentiment continues to improve thank goodness.
- Dollar struggles (where is the strong dollar mantra?), bonds rally on Fed action, economic data.
- Leaders rallied Friday but the market is not done selling as tops, even for near term tests, take a bit of time to form.
- Can make money but now our game plan has to change with the indices at the prior highs.

GDP internals underscore the problems with the economy and those that may come.

In the closing alert on Friday I included a note I sent to the traders in the office about my feelings on where this market was. We typically discuss that note live between the traders in the afternoon to figure out where we want to go and make sure we are all in the same page. We also look out over the next session or, in this case, Monday and next week. I included part of that note because I think it did a good job of spelling out what I was talking about on Wednesday and Thursday with respect to where the market is going in the coming week or two based on the additional information we received Friday in the economic numbers.

First I will go over a bit of the background for the day, and then I will get into that note in particular. It was a mixed back-and-forth session that saw the NYSE large cap indices struggling. The SP500 and the DJ30 closed slightly lower, but it was a growth day. The growth indices such as NASDAQ, SP600, and the SOX staked out the lead on the day, posting upside gains. Looking at where they closed on the session, if this market wants to sell (as surely seemed the case on Thursday), it does not seem to want to sell that hard. Stocks declined after the premarket GDP data came out. That data showed a consumer less consumption-minded and business falling sharply while inventories piled higher as a result.

In the backward world of GDP calculation, without inventories rising due to less spending, GDP would have risen only 0.8%. Now that is growth, my friends. The worry is we have a repeat of early 2011 when the economy sputtered after a good finish to 2010. Indeed, that finish was better than the first read of Q4 in 2011 showed us on Friday. The market had its issues.

SP500, -0.16%; NASDAQ, +0.4%; Dow, -0.58%; SP600, +0.59%; SOX, +0.34%; NASDAQ 100, +0.29%.

The market took a hit early on when the GDP numbers came out. At 2.8%, that was significantly less than expected. There are other factors I alluded to that I will talk about later. There was a recovery, however. A rebound but then a slump into lunch. Buyers reasserted themselves. They bought on a dip, driving stocks higher in the afternoon, pushing NASDAQ and the SP600 back to positive. It brought SP500 and the Dow well off of their lows to close out the session. SP500 bounced up off of its 10 day EMA. Again, if the market is trying to sell, it is not trying to sell that hard.


There was an impact from the weaker GDP numbers.

Dollar. 1.3209 versus 1.3156 euro. The dollar sold. With a weaker economy, why do you need to invest your money in the dollar? Money gets pulled out of weakening economies, and that is what the dollar showed on Friday. In the premarket alert this morning, I talked about the Fed's policies and what it is doing to the dollar. That would include the administration's policies as well. When was the last time you heard that old mantra that "A strong dollar is in the best interest of the United States?" In Bill Clinton's administration we heard it all the time. Even in President Bush's administration, although they did not really believe it, they still said it. Today I could not remember the last time I heard anyone from the Obama administration say that a strong dollar is in the best interest of the United States.

I know some of you will e-mail and say they said it on this day or that day. My point is that we used to hear it all the time on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, or wherever. You could not swing a dead cat without hitting someone in the administration who said something about a strong dollar being in the interest of the United States. And before I get the cat lovers writing in, that is just a phrase from Huckleberry Finn.

In any event, the dollar did not have a lot of faith in the U.S. recovery as investors fled the dollar for other currencies.

Bonds. 1.90% versus 1.96% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds rallied on the news. Why? People get scared when the economy weakness. They want safety and they ran to U.S. Treasuries. It does not hurt that the Fed's policies are pushing people toward Treasuries once again even though they are not yielding anything. Why? The Fed says it will keep interest rates low. You can make money as bonds rally and yields fall. Indeed, it was enough today to have the Fed's Lacker say that the U.S. may have to raise rates before 2014.

That is damage control. The Fed is stretching the 0% interest rate timetable, and it does not like how that is being received and commented on in the financial markets. It is trying to say this is not just the printing press running again. "We are aware that there could be inflation, blah, blah, blah." No one is really buying it just as no one in the Bush era really bought the policy statement that they believed a strong dollar was in the interest of the U.S. Actions speak louder than words. They did so in the Bush administration with respect to the dollar, and they are now with the Fed's treatment of bonds and interest rates.

As an aside, it is no wonder that the Fed did what it did and Bernanke said what he did in the Q&A; the Fed got a pre-look at these numbers and was not impressed with what it saw. Thus it said it would keep these rates lower. But it has to do the damage control. It made that promise to keep money cheap and free to the big banks and companies. While the Fed cannot do anything else because it has itself in a box, it is really not helping. It is pushing money away from the U.S. as we see in the dollar.

Bonds are still in trouble, but they rallied back up to the 50 day EMA. The 5 year reached a record low yield at 0.75%.

Gold. 1,732.60, +2.70. Gold did not do a lot. That was after a big run for the week. After hours gold was up another 15 clicks. It continued to run. The Fed promises cheap, easy money and gold sees is as inflationary. Gold broke out of its range to the upside when it looked ready to roll over and head back down. It all hinged on what the Fed did, and you see the result.

Oil. 99.47, -0.23. Oil was virtually flat on the session. Still struggling in the range. Still not following, still not rising. A lot of it depends on what happens with Iran and others. Oil is being held hostage somewhat, if you will pardon the rather hackneyed allusion to the 1970's when Iran was involved with U.S. hostages.





Volume. -14% NASDAQ, 1.73B; -5.5% NYSE, 759M. Volume fell off the table. There was no selling strength, and there was no real buying strength.

Breadth. 1.87:1 NASDAQ; 1.85:1 NYSE. Breadth was to the upside.

On Friday many were saying that the Thursday reversal that I talked about quite extensively was apparently nothing. It may be nothing, but it is not likely. As discussed in the office this afternoon, this is one of those times you can get burned jumping in too quickly if you were expecting to get into trades and stay in for several weeks. Why? The market is likely hitting a level where it caps out this move near term. Does it roll over? Move sideways? Just test modestly? It can be any of those. We could get a rollover of significance that breaks down into this lower range. We could get a rollover that just tests the October peak. Or we could get a lateral, choppy move for weeks on end. Even if a rollover is coming and even if stocks will fall over the next few weeks, it often takes time for buyers to finally run out of steam and stop buying on the dips.

Looking at the mid-2010 recovery, we had that inverted head and shoulders and the rally back up to that prior peak. Right when it came back up to the peak before it broke out, it stalled and faded back from that April peak and tested just a bit. But then it turned around, broke out, and started the nice rally into April through July. Fast forwarding to the current situation, the indices are in the process of bumping into that prior peak. The Dow made that run on Thursday and reversed. It did not roll over completely, but it threw a big doji and was down on Friday. Not selling off, but it was down. They have not made that test, however. That is the same test from 2010. But that is likely to happen, and they are likely to come back and test near that October peak. That was the recovery high that they had a little trouble moving through. They will come back and test that to some degree. It has not been answered yet as to how far.

This time around why is it different? Why might it not continue to the upside? Things are not that great right now. GDP was crappy at 2.8%. As I noted, 1.9 points of that was an inventory bill as consumer and business spending dropped off even with auto sales up 38%. This may be an overall top, and not the bump of the prior high that precedes a test that then leads to a breakout. Again, that is the action we saw back in late 2010. As I noted, however, that is not an answered question as of yet. Thus you will always have up and down action as we saw on Friday. Part of the market did fine and other parts struggled. It is likely going to be choppy for awhile. Those that move in too quickly in anticipation of an upside breakout or a downside breakdown often get ground up in the choppy action.

Your next statement might be, "Then why the heck are we even worrying about this right now?" Because the subscribers and those of us in the office that want to trade positions can make money. You have to look for the juicy, ripe moves to the upside and downside that can make us nice gains without having to break any resistance or support. You want to capture moves without needing any kind of breakout or breakdown because in a choppy, indecisive market that is testing those prior highs, you are not going to get as many breakouts. Just when you get the move going, you hit resistance and at it stalls out and fades. If you have to break through resistance, you will be in trouble. You end up getting stuck in a play or you have to bail on the play or just have some dead money for awhile. If you are banking on a breakout in order to make money, the odds are stacked against you in this market and the market that is likely to come over the next few weeks. The probabilities do not have your back as they have. Again, that kind of action can grind you up if you are looking to position trade for several weeks.

What do you do? For now you play partials. Do not get too far into a potentially choppy market, and you play the really ripe moves where you do not have to make that break through any resistance or break down through support to make some nice money. We are not trying to pick up a dollar while risking a dollar or two. You still want to have that good ratio. A good probability of a sold return but without making the move through a resistance level. That makes finding plays a lot harder. That is what everyone was moaning about today while looking ahead for the weekend. That is one of the reasons we had this talk. You have to put your mind in sync with what the market is showing you. Do not try to force that square peg into a round hole. Be smarter.

Again, we will play partial positions. We took a couple of partial positions today. We also took gain on other positions and closed some others. You have to continue your position maintenance. You have to be smart. This is not the time to load the boat. Things looked great on Friday, and we made some money on plays that moved wonderfully for us. I was very pleased with the action on Friday, and not because I feel the troubles are over and the market is going to race higher now or lower over the next 5 days. I was pleased because our positions made us a lot more money.

Many surged. JAZZ made a nice break to the upside. NFLX continued to push higher after its gap to the upside. SCSS moved up. KLAC continued its move on good volume. LULU was up as well on a good move. SOHU posted a nice 6%+ gain. STX broke higher out of a lateral consolidation. Those are just a few of them that moved up nicely, and this is on top off a great week for us. Leaders in good position making their moves. We are not assuming that this will last, however. We let most of them run today. We did not take a lot of gain. We will watch closely next week, careful to bank more gain if they start to wear out (i.e. the market bumps up against that resistance again and starts to falter).

Remember, it takes a bit of time for the momentum to wear out. The momentum is upside right now. If it keeps bumping up against those prior highs and selling off, it will wear itself out. Thus it is likely to give us that test. If it holds on that pullback, we will see new setups, no doubt. Indeed, we see some pretty juicy setups with no resistance overhead to be broken in order to make us the kind of money to makes the play worthwhile. We will look at those this weekend for the coming week.

There you have it. That is basically the meeting we had this afternoon talking about what we are doing and why we are doing it. It just summarized what I have been saying over the past several sessions. You have to play smart now and get the probabilities in your favor. You have to keep them in your favor and not lose sight of what is happening in the market overall. We can still make great money, but we have to protect what we have made to this point. Do not be caught up in days such as Friday that saw a lot of our positions the leaders making great moves. You can say, "Man, this market is going to higher." But leaders lead, right? They perform better than other stocks, and they were leading on Friday. But if the market cannot break through these highs, those leaders will not be able to take us out of it all by themselves. They, too, will come back.


I will just note that all of the major indices other than the SOX experienced the 50 day EMA moving up through the 200 SMA. Most places look at the 50 day EMA versus the SMA. The EMA is the one that most of the traders are watching now. We know the SP500 and the Dow have already made that move along with the NASDAQ. On the SP600 the golden cross as occurred. That is an overall bullish indication. Why? The 10 day, 20 day, and the 50 day are now sloping to the upside. The momentum is moving higher. If it sustains, the 200 day will flatten further and then turn up. Then all of the major indices will be moving higher. That is a powerful trend.

If there is a test, do not panic. With what we see in stocks and EMAs as well, it could precipitate a test of the cross. Then, just about the time that the test and the cross start to materialize as the 50 day slides lower, stocks should find their bottom and break back to the upside. That would be perfectly normal. It is all in the test. It is how stocks and indices test moves that tells you the tale as to the underlying strength. This cross is a good indication, but it is not the answer in itself.



VIX: 18.53; -0.04
VXN: 19.31; -0.25
VXO: 18.06; +0.49

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; -0.1

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 50.0% versus 50.0%. Still at the flat line as it has been for all of January. To the end of 2011 showed a slow, steady increase to this level. Still probing the overdone range and could be part of the picture that tops out the current in January, but it is not there yet. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 28.7% versus 29.8%. Backing off but just modestly from that 30% level where bears moved down to in early December and have held ever since. Again, bears are not growing but they are not necessarily buying into the upside move. Back and forth around 30% where it has flat-lined for 8 weeks. Again, Bears remain skeptical. Skeptics in the face of a move is a good sign the move continues. Lower but not anywhere near suggesting investors are carefree. The average the past month and more is 30%. The index spent seven weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: +11.27 points (+0.4%) to close at 2816.55
Volume: 1.736B (-13.89%)

Up Volume: 973.01M (+329.94M)
Down Volume: 716.4M (-483.6M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.87 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.23 to 1

New Highs: 71 (-27)
New Lows: 9 (-4)


Stats: -2.1 points (-0.16%) to close at 1316.33
NYSE Volume: 759M (-5.6%)

Up Volume: 1.96B (+420M)
Down Volume: 1.95B (-1.1B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.85 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.04 to 1

New Highs: 177 (-68)
New Lows: 8 (-1)


Stats: -74.17 points (-0.58%) to close at 12660.46
Volume DJ30: 164M shares Friday versus 131M shares Thursday.


We have a ton of economic data. It will be the first Friday of the new month, and that means we will have the payrolls report ending the week. Everyone will be looking at that. It will be interesting to see how that turns out. Can it continue to improve? Or will what appears to be a slowdown in Q4 in some very key economic metrics starts to slow down the improvement (for want of a better word) in employment.

On Monday there is Personal Income and Spending. Tuesday brings the Case/Shiller, the Chicago PMI, and Consumer Confidence as well. We have ADP on Wednesday as well as the ISM. Huge numbers. Challenger on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. Productivity on Thursday. Friday brings not only the employment report but Factory Orders and the ISM Services. A huge week of news, not to mention more earnings.

It will be a busy news week. There will be a lot more on Europe. There were downgrades by Fitch of Spain and Italy on Friday. No surprise there with a two-notch downgrade. There will be more Europe news that may or may not impact negatively on the market. We have been able to overcome a lot of that, but now we are back at these highs. That tends to magnify the news that is negative. Investors naturally pull back and wait to see.

Remember that we could see a choppy back-and-forth. Thursday was down. Friday was quasi up. The big cap NYSE was not. Otherwise tech and growth was up, and our leaders performed well. We have down days and we will have up days. I do not think we will get a breakout. Typically you do not get that move on the first try. What happened back in the summer of 2010 is classic. You have the rally and then, in the fall, the tap of the prior high and the test before the breakout. We will have to watch and see.

If the Fed announces another QE3 at some point, the market will break out and go to the upside. Before that happens, the Fed will be watching to see how they perform at these prior highs and if we get a fall back. The deeper the fall back, the better the chance we have of the Fed acting. Why? The Fed knows that if the market falls back it is seeing 2012 weakening. After the GDP advance report for Q4 that was released on Friday, we understand why Bernanke talked down the economy on Wednesday in the press conference.

Prepare for chop. It will happen. Do not get too married to positions. Do not stay heavy in all positions. We have lightened up on a lot of them. Those we have been taking lately have been partials. When we move into any new plays coming up, it will be partials. We will take our gain. We will take that partial and reduce it even more by logging the gain when we get there (or we get darn close) as we have been. We can make money in this, no doubt about it. We just have to adapt and cannot apply breakout strategies in all cases. Maybe there will be some, but we will play those on the test. The market will be choppy and up and down. Again, that can grind you up.

Do not be impatient. This is one of those times that patience pays off. Take the move when it is there. Do not chase the bus and do not rush in too quickly. Those are very much related at these times in the market. You can chase the bus and be in too quickly at the same time. It makes no sense, but it has the same effect. That is the way I look at it. The other day I said you do not have to be that smart to make money in the market, but you just have to think a little differently. There is an example of it.

In any event, we will get good plays where we do not have to make breakouts. We do not have to count on a break to make us money. Harder to find, yes. Fewer plays, yes. That is the way it is at these potential tops and bottoms where the market is trying to figure out itself what will happen. Be smart and be patient. Let the plays come, and then jump on them when you see them. If they do not go your way, we will get the heck out of Dodge. Preserve your money. Take the money when it is there for taking. Do not try to push for something that is not there; the odds are against you in this kind of market, and it will most likely be taken away from you.

I will see you on Monday for a busy news week. Have a great weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2816.55

2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak

2796 is the February gap down point
2762 is the February low
2759 is the mid-May low
2754 is the recent October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2674
The 200 day SMA at 2659
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2572 is the November 2-11 gap down point
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2441 is the November 2011 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows

S&P 500: Closed at 1316.33
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak

1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1268
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 1257
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1090 is the early September 2010 gap up point
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low

Dow: Closed at 12,660.46
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,876 is the May high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 12,244
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 11,972
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low

Economic Calendar

January 25 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/21 (7:00): -5.0% actual versus 23.1% prior
Pending Home Sales, December (10:00): -3.5% actual versus -3.0% expected, 7.3% prior
FHFA Housing Price Index, November (10:00): +1.0% actual versus -0.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/21 (10:30): +3.56M actual versus -3.438M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, January (12:30): 0-0.25% actual versus 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior. Extended low rates from mid-2013 to late 2014. Wow.

January 26 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/21 (8:30): 377K actual versus 375K expected, 356K prior (revised from 352K)
Continuing Claims, 01/14 (8:30): 3554K actual versus 3550K expected, 3466K prior (revised from 3432K)
Durable Orders, December (8:30): 3.0% actual versus 2.0% expected, 4.3% prior (revised from 3.7%)
Durable Orders -ex A, December (8:30): 2.1% actual versus 0.7% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%)
New Home Sales, December (10:00): 307K actual versus 321K expected, 314K prior (revised from 315K)
Leading Indicators, December (10:00): 0.4% actual versus 0.7% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.5%)

January 27 - Friday
Chain Deflator - Q4, First iteration (8:30): 2.6% prior
GDP - Q4, First iteration (8:30): 2.8% actual versus 3.2% expected, 1.8% prior
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q4 (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 1.5% expected, 2.6% prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, January (9:55): 75.0 actual versus 74.2 expected, 74.0 prior

January 30 - Monday
Personal Income, December (8:30): 0.4 expected, 0.1% prior
Personal Spending, December (8:30): 0.1 expected, 0.1% prior
PCE Prices - Core, December (8:30): 0.2 expected, 0.1% prior

January 31 - Tuesday
Employment Cost Index, Q4 (8:30): 0.4 expected, 0.3% prior
Case-Shiller 20-city, November (9:00): -2.6 expected, -3.4% prior
Chicago PMI, January (9:45): 62 expected, 62.5 prior
Consumer Confidence, January (10:00): 67 expected, 64.5 prior

February 1 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/28 (7:00)
ADP Employment Change, January (8:15): 175K expected, 325K prior
ISM Index, January (10:00): 54.7 expected, 53.9 prior
Construction Spending, December (10:00): 0.4% expected, 1.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/28 (10:30)
Auto Sales, January (14:00): 13.5M expected, 4.20M prior
Truck Sales, January (14:00): 6.04M prior

February 2 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, January (7:30): 30.6% prior
Initial Claims, 01/28 (8:30): 375K expected,
Continuing Claims, 01/21 (8:30): 3525K expected,
Productivity-Preliminary, Q4 (8:30): 0.6% expected, 2.3% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q4 (8:30): 0.8% expected, -2.5% prior

February 3 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, January (8:30): 170K expected, 200K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, January (8:30): 145K expected, 212K prior
Unemployment Rate, January (8:30): 8.5% expected, 8.5% prior
Hourly Earnings, January (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Average Workweek, January (8:30): 34.4 expected, 34.4 prior
Factory Orders, December (10:00): 1.6% expected, 1.8% prior
ISM Services, January (10:00): 53.1 expected, 52.6 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2012 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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