- More of the same as October ends with gains, and more of the same is not a bad thing.
- No pre-election spurt yet, but good enough moves to bank some gain.
- GDP rose by 2%, matching the conventional wisdom.
- Chicago PMI posts an upside surprise, but some of the internals are not as pleasant.
- Michigan Sentiment misses the mark, posts an 11 month low.
- Looking for one more spurt into the election, maybe more.
Flat session ends a good October as indices continue to hold gains, eye April highs.
More of the same. That is how October ended, but that was not necessarily a bad thing. The SP500 has worked laterally for over a week after breaking through the 78% Fibonacci retracement level. It was unable move higher toward the April peak, but in technical theory it should be able to do that since it has breached the 78% range and held it. It cannot get enough momentum to make the move despite good earnings that continued to come in Thursday night and Friday morning, sending some great stocks higher and banking some gain for us. SP500 overall could not extend the move at least not yet. That raises the question of whether it and the rest of the indices will be able to continue higher next week. New money often comes in on a new month to start things out, but we also have the elections on Tuesday and the FOMC decision on Quantitative Easing on Wednesday.
There was an added layer of intrigue to the session because bombs were being sent to the United States from Yemen. That had shades of the Madrid train bombings right before its election a few years ago, and it was able to swing the election. It was not a surprise to see these show up, and the market treated it as such; it was rather apathetic to the news. Looking at the intraday chart, stocks moved up and down. I think I counted SP500 crossing the flat line 10 times on the session. It closed slightly lower as the last rotation of the day was to the downside. NASDAQ, flat; SP500, -0.04%; Dow 30, +0.04%; SP600, +0.4%; SOX, +0.6%; NASDAQ 100, -0.25%
It was more of the same with flat lining across the day, particularly on SP500. NASDAQ looked similar to what it showed of late, continuing higher ...almost. It rallied on the week, though it had to overcome a downside gap on Tuesday. It managed to pull very close to the April peak, and it may be the leader that has made its high on this rally. We will have to see what next week holds. There are elections and the FOMC meeting. Conventional wisdom would say the indices are right at the April peak that is the rally high off the bear-market low therefore, you will encounter resistance here and fade back to correct. However, the markets could show a spurt higher on the news of the election or the FOMC meeting, and that may turn into a reversal that starts a correction. Then again, it may not.
This is telling us several things. Number one, the market has been moving ahead of massive liquidity. This last rally from August into the end of October is another example of the power of liquidity fostered by the Federal Reserve. The old adage about not fighting the Fed has proved to be true since late 2008 and early 2009. With the Fed ready to embark on a new Quantitative Easing program, the same adage will hold. The issue is what will happen near term. In the short term, the markets stock or otherwise tend to overreact and swing too far one way or the other. We could see some strange moves around the election and FOMC meeting given the nice run from August to now, but the market will likely continue higher with the Fed still in the game.
Liquidity will drive stocks higher because there is not much economic activity. The GDP was up 2%. That matched what was expected and was up from the prior read of 1.7%. 2% is not what I would consider my favorite growth path, and it is not the kind of activity that will lift the US economy to a level that will create many jobs. When there is not a lot of economic activity and there is a tremendous amount of liquidity stuffed into the financial markets, that excess liquidity is funneled into financial markets. Financial markets rise when there are periods of tremendous liquidity and little economic activity because there is nowhere to put the money. It has to be put somewhere, and it is put into financial markets. There may be hiccups near term given the strength of this recent August-October run. Once those hiccups pass and we get a correction, there is likely to be more upside. Unless other factors come into play, liquidity in a slack economy leads to higher financial markets. Unfortunately, that does not necessarily lead to higher economic output.
Dollar. The dollar was a bit stronger on the session overall (1.3919 Euro versus 1.3931 Thursday). The stock market has shown better action on the stronger dollar of late. Although it is not great action, it is a change. Typically, when the dollar has rallied the stock market has fallen. That was not the case toward the latter part of the week. Is that new change in the dollar? Some said the dollar was showing some stabilization. It also showed stabilization in August when it bounced off a roughly equal decline in steepness and degree. There is a similar selloff through mid October, and now a bounce in relief. It looks like that will try to continue.
For now, I can only say it is a relief bounce. It is at a significant support level it has that going for it. That is trying to bounce it higher, but that is in the face of the Fed about to embark upon a new round of Quantitative Easing. That will have a detrimental effect on the dollar and other currencies from around the world. Countries are trying to keep their currencies devalued because they do not want to deal with slowing their fragile economies because we in the US are adopting a weak-dollar policy and want to devalue our currency to prosperity ahead of everyone else. Right now, there seems to be a rush to devalue currency. That is an absolutely asinine thing for central banks around the world to do. They never learn from history. It is all short-term nonsense, and it could come back to bite us all. Some of the soothsayers in Washington and government centers around the world say we are in a world economic recovery that could suddenly flip into a world economic depression.
Not a fun thought, but we have to consider these types of events given the ridiculous return to policies from the past. Will we expect different results? Of course not. As Einstein said, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. If that is the case, can we have our Congressional leaders and administrative officials relieved from duty on the grounds of insanity?
Bonds. Bonds had a decent day. Bonds have posted a nice rally again (10 year yield 2.60% versus 2.66% Thursday). Yields are down, and that means bond are rallying. They are trying to fight back after a good selloff that started in late August.
Gold. Gold had another great session. It tipped its hand on Thursday as it made a higher low. I put a GLD play on the report, and sure enough gold broke to the upside and we bought into the GLD on Friday. Not huge, but a solid move by gold ($1,359.60, +$17.40). A very nice move indeed, and it was in the face of a dollar that was not too weak. That means that gold was anticipating what the Fed would do again, and it is pricing in more inflation. Pretty cut and dried.
Oil. Oil continued its lateral move. Not bad action at all. It was down on the session, but in a tight range and is holding in the top portion of its larger trading range above the midpoint. It is trying to consolidate and set up a breakout. Whether it does or not will depend on what the dollar does with the Fed action this week. ($81.43, -$0.75).
Volume. Volume increased to 2B shares on the NASDAQ, up 2.7%. Volume managed to move up roughly 2.5% on the NYSE to 1.03B shares. The indices traded flat and volume rose. That shows stocks changing hands at a more rapid rate as the indices work laterally or trade right below an important resistance point. That is what you call churning. That means there is high-volume trade, and people are passing the stocks around like hot potatoes. It shows there is not a lot of conviction by the buyers wanting to hold onto them. Take that little caveat going into next week. Some concern, but it was also the end of the month. There may be some window dressing ongoing.
Breadth. Breadth was lackluster at 1.2:1 on NASDAQ and 1.6:1 on the NYSE. Given that the indices were flat and were trading back and forth around the flat line, it was a modest positive to see the breadth come in to the upside on both exchanges.
SP500. SP500 was working laterally. Still the same volatile up and down action during the session, but holding over the 78% Fibonacci retracement as well as the late-May interim peak. Technically speaking, it should try a rally up to the April peak, but there are other events on the road ahead (the election and FOMC meeting) that may influence that one way or the other. Many of the expectations for the election are built into this move from August to the end of October. There may be some expectation built in as well with respect to more liquidity from the Fed. Conventional wisdom would suggest that the market would move down and correct once the speculation became fact with the election and the FOMC meeting. We could very well get a spike higher once more before that happens. That is the conventional wisdom. There is a possibility that, given that the SP500 has moved above this level and held the gain, it just makes the spike and tries to continue to run. There are still stocks in very good shape out there, and they could power the index higher. Heaven forbid the financial stocks finally get a fire lit under their tails. If they take off, SP500 could get real traction.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ had a modest gain, virtually flat. It had a decent week after gapping higher on Monday, and it came within 25-30 points of the April peak. It was the leader to the upside in October, and it was the leader last week as it came the closest to the April peak. It could be done. It has not consolidated as the SP500 has over the past weak. As the leader, maybe it is finished and ready to test. It is the same scenario as the SP500. It has not moved laterally, but it is still in position to move. It has many great stocks in position as well.
SP600. SP600 were one of the leader groups of the day. Although, similar to SP500, they are still mired in their lateral trading range. Still have not even taken out the May interim peak. Not actual leaders, but performing well enough. A nice setup that looks like it wants to try the break to the upside at least.
SOX. Semiconductors had the best week of all with a great surge on Wednesday. They added to the gains on Friday, clearing some interim peaks from July and August in the process. It has been a great move from the semiconductors after breaking back into their trading range that they gave up in late August through mid-September. It was hard to complain. We picked up some of those positions on the way, and we were able to bank some gain on them on Friday.
Financial. It seems like the same boring story from yesterday. Financials are important, and they are not doing anything. JPM is holding steady. It is the same action that SP500 was showing the past week and a half at the top of its recent range, but it was at the bottom of its range. GS was the bright spot on the week, though it was unable to hold the move all the way to Friday. It is a nice test of the break over resistance. If you are not in, you can use this test to move in as it rebounds to the upside. EWBC had a nice break higher on some earnings, and a good test. Starting to bounce on Friday. If it continues, it could be a good entry point.
Technology. MSFT announced earnings, and it was nice. It gapped up, but it could not hold the move through the 200 day EMA and closed with about a 1.5% gain. Rather inauspicious. Maybe that will take it out of this big rectangle at the bottom of the selloff from April. Maybe it will start to make a move at this point. AAPL finished weak. It gapped higher, had an island reversal, and it has been testing but holding on fairly well through Thursday. It started to crack on Friday. We will see what happens. It is still in position where it could make a break higher, but maybe it will come back all the way to test the first high and first peak following the breakout from its April-September trading range.
Semiconductors. Semiconductors were performing well again. VSEA had a nice break to the upside, and we took some interim gain on it because it was moving so well. NVLS was surging past some prior peaks. It is bumping into old resistance right now, but there are solid moves from the semiconductors. They came to life. I had a few of them, and it helped pay some bills, no doubt about that. SAPE is moving higher and looking strong again. Many of these little stocks that are not household names are moving up nicely and are in position to continue their move. If that is the case, you can build is strong case that the market will continue trying to further its rally into next week and through the election even the FOMC meeting. If that is the case, there are stocks that would be good buys to move into. At this point, take advantage of good plays, but you have to be a bit cautious given the length of the move and where the key resistance is right now. I would love to see a pullback to give us better positioning and better entry points, but you do not always get what you would love to see.
Retail. After a tough week, retail redeemed itself in some instances on Friday. DECK gapped today the upside with a breakaway gap. Took some gain on that. With a breakaway gap, we will be looking for another chance to move in. A breakaway gap that holds the gap tends to move in the direction of the gap. I will be looking for that play. CSTR announced earnings and blasted higher with a breakaway gap. Took nice gain on that as well. It was not a great week for the casual restaurants. PNRA gapped lower, struggling. PFCB had gap issues as well below the 50 day EMA. Retail was a mixed bag. It was looking strong, and then some of the big names that have been moving it up fell on hard times this week.
China. Chinese stocks continue to look great. NTES looks like it is trying to bounce back up after the test from the breakout of this triangle. You can always catch a stock on the breakout and then likely catch it on a triangle play as it tests. I will often take a partial position on the breakout, and then come back and fill it in on the test once I see it will actually test, hold, and start to bounce. It is a good place to move in. SOHU made its breakaway gap and started to move higher on Friday. CTRP is continuing to move higher toward its earnings next week. We are letting it do just that. TZOO had a very nice pullback to test its gap and breakout of its own triangle. China is a bit different from the others; it is controlled by what is going on over there versus here in the US. We can continue to look at plays when we would pass up some of the domestic stocks.
Energy. CVX gapped lower. It was in a lateral move and announced. They were not as pleasing, and investors punished it a bit. CHK looks like it might try to roll up in its range. APC had a nice break higher just over a week back. Now it is testing that move and could set up a decent buy for a good trade.
Industrial. CAT has a rounded top. I will be looking at CAT for a possible downside play. If the markets weaken going into the election or immediately after, we could get a downside play from CAT. Maybe it will come back down to the April and August peaks that are roughly coincident. It would be a nice play to that level.
VIX. The VIX managed to rise through last week given the lateral uncertainty in the SP500. Each day SP500 was up or down and reversed once to three or more times in one session. Volatility crept higher. Note that as volatility on SP500 crept higher, NASDAQ rallied. Thus, volatility fell on the NASDAQ volatility index. There is still very low volatility, and some say that means it is time for a selloff. That is not necessarily the correlation volatility in the stock market was showing in the summer months. That was broken recently. Now we may get a pullback or correction as the market is bouncing up to the April peaks. There is talk of a correction by some very smart people. That is why volatility is creeping to the upside, but it does not mean much now.
VIX: 21.2; +0.32
VXN: 22.24; +0.59
VXO: 21.33; +0.77
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.9; +0.03
Bulls versus Bears:
The CROSSOVER from August is long gone but it did its job.
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 45.6%. A slight rise after a fade the weak before (45.1% versus 47.2%). Steady rise since hitting 29% where bears overtook bulls back in early September, but now somewhat indecisive with SP500 moving laterally. Still below the 65% level considered as bearish, above the 35% level below which is considered bullish. Where you would expect for a rally such as this one. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 24.4%. A bit of caution moving back into the market after dipping modestly the prior week (22.0% versus 24.7%). Down from 28.3% a month back. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level considered bearish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +0.04 points (0%) to close at 2507.41
Volume: 2.043B (+2.73%). Some churning just below the April peak.
Up Volume: 1.163B (+51.87M)
Down Volume: 858.573M (-41.809M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.36 to 1
New Highs: 113 (-13)
New Lows: 45 (+10)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: -0.52 points (-0.04%) to close at 1183.26
NYSE Volume: 1.034B (+2.52%)
Up Volume: 547.74M (+79.13M)
Down Volume: 436.605M (-58.957M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.62 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.19 to 1
New Highs: 282 (-13)
New Lows: 24 (+2)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +4.54 points (+0.04%) to close at 11118.49
Volume DJ30: 189.7M shares Friday versus 156.2M shares Thursday. A little churning here at the April peak as well.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
It is an interesting week, data-wise. We start right out of the box on Monday with personal income and spending and the ISM index. The interesting thing with respect to the ISM is that the Chicago PMI topped expectations on Friday at 60.6. That was better than the 58 expected. That seemed like good news, but the problem is some of the internals were not that great. New orders improved, and that is a positive, but prices posted a huge jump. That is the inflation factor. Gold and other commodity prices are rising because they are denominated in the weakening dollar. We will continue to see an inflationary aspect.
Order backlogs were below 50% for the second month in a row, and that means they are contracting. The economy is not strong and factories are not humming anyway, but order backlogs are dissipating. The orders coming in are getting fewer and fewer, and the backlog is being worked off. That could lead to slack manufacturing and more jobs pressure in the coming months. The news was not that great when looking beyond the headlines.
Michigan Sentiment was a bit less than expected at 67.7 versus 68.0 expected. That was an 11-month low, but that does mean a lot. It is a recession level, but consumers are spending a little bit. These are still levels that are concerning, and it would not take much to upset the consumers and keep them down. One of the major problems facing consumers is falling housing prices. There is no reason for them to go up. There are still too many houses, not enough buyers, and we have propped up the prices instead of just letting them tumble.
If we had only let them fall in the beginning, we would most likely be pulling out of that problem already. The foreclosures would have happened rapidly; they would have dropped and bounced. That typically happens when you let the markets go, but your fearless leaders want us to avoid any pain even though it is not possible. They try to stretch it out, and it gets the misery going like it was in the 1970's and 1930's. By trying to keep the inevitable from happening, they only prolong it and make things worse because they bleed our resources dry. We are trying to hang on during this "recovery." It was the summer of recovery, and now I suppose it is the fall of recovery? Perhaps it will be the fall of the fall. The point is, they are trying to help ease the pain but are only stretching out the problem. Without creating jobs and demand, prices cannot go up. They will fall, and we just need to get it over with.
There is a lot of news coming out. Wednesday is the Challenger jobs report, ISM services, factory orders, and the FOMC rate decision. Thursday brings the weekly jobless claims, and then on Friday the non-farm payrolls for October come out. As you can see, there will be a data overload. On top of that, we will have earnings. A very important week.
Looking out at the market, there is the same setup. We have the flat lateral move, and that would suggest the SP500 will try to rally up to the April peak. It may try to do it moving into the election and the FOMC meeting. We took some gain off the table on Friday on positions that we had not taken gain on as of yet. Then we will let the remaining positions ride (as well as others that we have already banked some gain on). If there is a nice spurt up into the the election, we will definitely take some profits off the table. We have already had a good run. There is a lateral move and a sprint higher for a couple of days that is begging us to take some more gain off the table especially with the big event risks coming up this week. We will not take them all off. For all I know, they may continue to the upside and we will all be singing and dancing in the streets. We have had some outstanding gains, and I would not mind having a few more.
We will let positions run. I am not in the habit of cutting runs off because I am trying to pick a top or bottom. The question is, with the risk/reward situation, do we continue to try to look at new plays? There are plays I keep seeing that look good for setups. If we see them and the market acts right, of course we will take them. Once again, the market is the final decision-maker on these moves. If it says it will go higher, it will go higher. We will not turn down plays on stocks such as NTES, TZOO, and maybe APC. There are also possible downside plays such as CAT. Many stocks look very good and are positioned to move higher. SSYS could still move back up as well as AMZN. The list goes on. Will I turn my back on these because I think the overall market is too high? No. AMZN broke resistance, tested it, and now it is stair stepping its way higher. That is what you would expect a strong stock to do, and it is acting as if it is still a strong stock. If you think you can make money on a strong stock, you would want to play that. We will be looking at more positions on AMZN and similar stocks.
The moral of the story: Even though conventional wisdom says that the market is due for a correction, the market may not think so. It may rally up through the event risks of the FOMC meeting and the election that I am worried about. I was worried about the earnings season, too. I did not know if it would be a good one after we had a move upside in September. Earnings season turned out okay and stocks continued to rally. They are still showing good setups. We will be ready for both the upside and the downside. We have been taking gain off all the way. If we get in trouble, we will take some more out of the picture. We will look to play the downside if it shows up. Right now it has not, but everyone is anticipating it. The fact that everyone is anticipating it makes it almost a coin toss at this point. I am happy to let our stock and option positions move higher, and I would be happy to continue letting them move higher if the market so desires. There is some pretty weather out there this weekend from the looks of it, so go out and enjoy yourself. I will see you on Monday for the fascinating week to come.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2507.41
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2530 is the April 2010 peak (2535.28 intraday)
2482 is the recent October peak
The 18 day EMA at 2455
2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
2382-2395 from 2008
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2373
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2310 is the August 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2302
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the August 2010intraday low
S&P 500: Closed at 1183.26
1185 from late September 2008
1220 is the April 2010, post-bear market peak
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
The 18 day EMA at 1173
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1146
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
The 200 day SMA at 1122
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows
Dow: Closed at 11,118.45
11,205 is the April closing high
11258 is the April 2010 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,100 from the 7-08 low
The 18 day EMA at 11,052
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
The 50 day EMA at 10,818
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,527
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 29 - Friday
GDP-Adv., Q3 (08:30): 2.0% actual versus 2.0% expected, 1.7% prior
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (08:30): 2.3% actual versus 1.9% expected, 1.9% prior
Employment Cost Index, Q3 (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior
Chicago PMI, October (09:45): 60.6 actual versus 58.0 expected, 60.40 prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, October (09:55): 67.7 actual versus 68.0 expected, 67.9 prior
November 01 - Monday
Personal Income, September (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.5% prior
Personal Spending, September (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
PCE Prices - Core, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
ISM Index, October (10:00): 53.6 expected, 54.4 prior
Construction Spending, September (10:00): -0.5% expected, 0.4% prior
November 03 - Wednesday
MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications, 10/29 (07:00): 3.2% prior
Challenger Job Cuts, October (07:30): -44.1% prior
ADP Employment Change, October (08:15): 25K expected, -39K prior
ISM Services, October (10:00): 53.6 expected, 53.2 prior
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.6% expected, -0.5% prior
Crude Inventories, 10/30 (10:30): 5.01M prior
Auto Sales, October (14:00): 3.75M prior
Truck Sales, October (14:00): 5.07M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, November 3 (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
November 04 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/30 (08:30): 434K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/23 (08:30): 4356K prior
Productivity-Preliminary, Q3 (08:30): 0.6% expected, -1.8% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q3 (08:30): 1.9% expected, 1.1% prior
November 05 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (08:30): 45K expected, -95K prior
Nonfarm Payrolls - Private, October (08:30): 60K expected, 64K prior
Unemployment Rate, October (08:30): 9.6% expected, 9.6% prior
Hourly Earnings, October (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Average Workweek, October (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
Pending Home Sales, September (10:00): 0.5% expected, 4.3% prior
Consumer Credit, September (15:00): -3.8B expected, -$3.3B prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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