China Rattles the Market Again

SUMMARY:
- Stocks shake off early hangover, but can only post modest gains.
- China rattles the market again, but stocks, commodities recover.
- Bernanke takes on China, challenges Congress and Administration to get into the game.
- Sentiment a bit frothy, but liquidity still dominates the picture.
- New leaders emerging in time for the holidays.
- Thanksgiving week problematical, but from turkey to Santa the market looks good.

Modest gains to end the week still leave indices with room to recover.

Modest gains to end the week still leave indices with room to recover.

Stocks faced another crisis on Friday morning. China increased its bank reserve requirements, and Hong Kong increased taxes on properties sold that were owned for less than two years. There was a capital gains change, and that rattled the markets. That always happens when China does something attempting to slow its economy. It has not been able to do it yet. It did have a recession a year ago, but it had a V-shaped recovery because it promoted the right policies and got back on track. It is actually growing its economy and stock market. In our country, we have the wrong policies and we did not get any growth generated, but we have had our stock market go up because of massive liquidity. We have pumped a lot of money into the stock market just as we did in late 1999, and the stock market shot higher with all the Y2K money that was not used and put into financial markets.

Right now, trillions of dollars are not going anywhere because small businesses are not doing any business. With A 2% GDP growth rate, it is mediocre, and it is all funny money being purchased into the system. We are seeing all of the markets not just stock markets shoot higher. Of course, we will see inflation. The CPI said there was no inflation this week, but we know that is not the case. Cotton hit an all-time high this week, and several other commodities have hit or are pushing all-time highs. WMT said the rise in cotton prices was "freaky." We are ignoring some serious problems out there.

The market on Friday was able to shake off the Chinese problems. Looking at the SPX, early on it started lower, reversed, and moved through that flat line and posted a gain on the session. NASDAQ, +0.15%; SP500, +0.25%; Dow, +0.2%; SP600, +0.3%; SOX, +1.6%; NASDAQ 100, flat. Some of the key large cap techs that led the market higher are tired. That does not mean the rally is over. There are many new stocks coming up and taking a leadership role while the stalwarts of the market (AAPL, GOOG) take a pause. That is normal and perfectly good action. It is called rotation, and that is what we are seeing right now. Still, Friday was less than impressive with its moves.

There were great earnings out. DELL and MRVL posted good earnings and strong outlooks. ANN stores and the FL both posted strong earnings. Retail had a great day. It shows there is some traction in the market, but it is not much. We are sowing the seed of inflation and other issues that will overrun the modest gains in some areas of the economy. We have a 1970's-like economy going because we have bad policy decisions fiscal and monetary and we have the same kind of issues now that we were having then. Monetary issues, fiscal policy issues, and we also have overregulations. There are tons of new regulations coming into the market. There is healthcare, and we will see cap and trade come into the market. It is not through Congress but through the EPA. We will have a boatload of new regulations and a lot of uncertainty at the same time because we do not know what our tax rates will be. They will probably be higher. We do not know what our healthcare policy will be because no one read the bill or really knows what the effects are. With that background, it will be difficult to make any headway, but near term we have massive amounts of liquidity coming into the stock market. It is still being put into stocks and all kinds of commodities around the world, and thus we have inflation. Our CPI is just not showing it yet.

Bernanke was out talking to the rest of the world, and he had two targets. One was China and he was saying not to be so hard on us. He said they need to get their currency right and let it rise. He also had words for the administration and Congress. Bernanke says they are doing all they can with monetary policy, and they need the executive and legislative branches to take some responsibility. They need to stop this spending. He said we need better fiscal order in our house to help us with our monetary policy. It is going to create inflation if we do not stop this ridiculous spending. We are creating ridiculous demand without investing in the country to create supply. If you do not have supply but you have a lot of excess money pumping up false demand, then you get explosive inflation.

I grew up in the 1970's, and it was a terrible time. A lot of inflation, a lot of regulations and uncertainty about the future. There was a horrible malaise in the country, and I never thought we would see that again. We are reliving the 1970's, and the parallels are striking. From Nixon to Ford to Carter, we now have Bush to Bush to Obama. The muddled policies of all of them are leading to the same outcomes. That is one of the problems that come from not recognizing our history: We are repeating it in just a few generations. Amazing. Of course, I digress as usual.

There was no standard economic news, but other news was out. We had Bernanke and the China story, and the market still managed to recover and post a gain. It was not an outstanding move. Stocks surged on Thursday, and they had a little hangover on Friday. It was expiration, and you would expect a little volatility. We got some, but not much at all. We got a quiet day, and it sold off and rallied back. The market tested logical support during the week. SP500 is coming back to its October consolidation range, and it bounced. Thanksgiving week is coming up, and that is a problematic week. Sometimes it has up and sometimes it is down during the week. Often stocks do not perform too well ahead of Thanksgiving, but then we have Turkey Day to Christmas where there is a rise in the market. That is your Santa Claus rally, and often it is a stealth rally. Stocks do not race upside; they just melt higher, and then stocks are suddenly up. They are up nicely, but it is not a huge move on an individual day. Typically, after a couple of weeks, the talking heads on the financial stations say, "I guess that was our Santa Claus rally." Next week there may not be a lot happening, but then you look for the upside bias to continue for the rest of the holiday season. With the indices having pulled back to support and in position to move back up, they have a nice setup to do just that.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. The dollar is on a bit of a pullback. This is a flag pattern after a double bottom. You can see where it broke below a support level and then reversed. A little false bottom there. It has rallied up through these prior peaks, made a higher high, and now it is testing back after bumping into some resistance. Looks like it is ready to move back to the upside (1.3689 Euro versus 1.3639 Thursday). It lost a little ground, but the pattern suggests it will move right back up after this test.

The dollar suffered a little at the end of the week because the EU situation improved. Ireland was talking about a bailout, and that calmed the markets down. The Euro was able to stabilize some, and it drove the dollar lower as it did so.

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Bonds. Bonds were relatively unimpressive on the week. They bounced, and they are in a selloff. They have bounced in relief, and they added a little more to the upside on Friday (10 year yield 2.87% versus 2.90% Thursday).

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Gold. Gold had a rough week itself actually a rough two weeks. It managed to rebound late in the week, bouncing as the dollar sold back. Not a convincing bounce. It was unable to recover the trendline from the July low. The dollar looks as if it is in a modest pullback and a flag that will bounce back to the upside, and gold has to prove that it can move back to the upside itself. It has bounced, but can it sustain? It is at the trendline, showing a hangman doji. It needs to be careful. Gold was basically flat on the session ($1,353.40, -0.15).

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Oil. As the dollar pulled back to end the week, oil manage to rebound. It was a tough week for oil. It sold off sharply early in the week with the worries about Europe and China. It did rally some on Friday, but it was unable to hold the move ($81.65, -0.20). It has bounced back up to resistance, and it is finding resistance. It gapped lower, and it is having trouble with that gap point. This is a key level that it tapped on the high Friday. It is that all-important January level it had such a hard time getting through that back in October.

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TECHNICAL SUMMARY

INTERNALS

Volume. Volume fell 10% on NASDAQ to 1.8B shares. It fell 9% on the NYSE to 1.1B. It was a little better showing overall on the NYSE. Keeping it closer to average volume.

Breadth. Breadth was not committal. Advancers led 1.2:1 on the NASDAQ, and they led 1.5:1 on the NYSE. Nothing earth shattering there given the quiet, calm session.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 was not very exciting with its 0.25% gain. It put in another inside day after selling off for the prior week and a half. It bounced sharply on Thursday off a key support level the rising 50 day EMA, October consolidation, and just above the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff. It has held and bounced the market, and that is a logical move. Does it go higher from here? I anticipate it may move laterally again and then make the next move upside after Thanksgiving. That is from general historical moves; it does not mean they will follow every year. The important thing is we have an upside bias that should continue if new leadership continues to develop and take the place of some of the winded names of leadership.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ showed similar action. It sold back into the gap a bit. It managed to recover for a gain, but it was very noncommittal action. It is still in no man's land. It never made it back down to the 50 day EMA or the Fibonacci retracement level. It is below the April peak, and it has several gaps. It could stand to move laterally a little and make the move. It is having some issues because some of the big names such as AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, and CSCO are having troubles of their own.

SP600. The small caps advanced 0.3%. They are showing the same action, moving a little higher. An inside day, unable to advance the ball after this pullback. They are in good shape to run up toward the April peak, but they need to get it together and have the right catalyst to do so. Still shaping up, decent, looking at that April peak.

SOX. SOX had a very good session. A nice, strong move, taking it back up to a key level. Still below the April peak, but the semiconductors continue to show improvement across the board. They were the strongest move in October. They were testing with a double bottom and look to be trying to take point on the lead again in a move back up through Thanksgiving into Christmas. They still have to deal with that April peak. They never made it through, but semiconductors have been doing well. They are breaking back into this trading range that they fell out of in August and have been on the rally ever since. Looks like they have their ears pinned back and are making their upside move.


LEADERSHIP

Leaders in distress. Some of the NASDAQ leaders have come upon hard times. It is not that they are selling off radically, but they are just unable to advance the move. They have had strong runs, lead the market to the upside, and they are now working through bases. AAPL is working in a trading range. Looking back, it did the same thing from April into late August before it broke out and made its next rally. Now it is moving up and down just as it did back then. It does not mean it is done with its run. It just means it is tired and the market needs to find someone else to come along and help. GOOG has had its issues. It had a great earnings report, but now it sold off into its gap zone, it has rallied back, and it looks like it might be ready to turn over. Some of these leaders have had issues and are no longer helping NASDAQ. CSCO is having the same issues. It gapped lower on earnings, and it moved to a lower low. Not helping NASDAQ along. These are holding it back, but there are other stocks helping move NASDAQ and is other indices along or at least keeping them to the upside for now.

Financial. JPM is still in its pullback. Not able to break out of the top of its range. GS is looking good. It is trying to get ready to move higher, but it was not able to do it on Friday.

Industrial. CAT had a nice day to the upside. Not a lot of volume, but it broke to a new rally high. DE posted a bit more of a gain after a good break off its 50 day EMA. There is a little trouble with MACD. It is not showing a same strength it had in recent times, but it has been a consistent rally off the 50 day EMA. Some of these industrial stocks are still in quite good shape.

Energy. I have been talking about some of the leaders having to go into rotation. They are taking their time out while others appear and come to the upside. PCX has been struggling a bit, but it has found its feet. It has volume to the upside, and it is breaking back upside. Energy is showing strength. HAL had a new high on the rally this week, and SLB new high on the rally this week. Not all energy is moving higher, but these areas are stirring and making their moves. That has been missing for quite some time.

Semiconductors. Semiconductors had a great day. BRCM had a new rally high on volume. MRVL had a strong surge off a test of the 200 day EMA and a Fibonacci retracement as well. NVDA keeps winning for us, moving higher. New rally high after breaking through the 200 day EMA. Semiconductors took a big chunk of the lead back in the rally up through early November. A quick test and they are at it again right now.

Retail. There are problems with the economy, but there are still retail leaders knocking the cover off the ball. DECK is exploding higher this week, and LULU is exploding higher on volume. NFLX pulled back, tested, and it is starting back up after holding its trendline. That is a positive. NKE is exploding to the upside to a new rally high on tremendous volume Friday. UA is exploding to a new high as well. Very strong moves.

Miscellaneous. Certain sectors in energy, semiconductors, and retail are taking the leadership by the horns and rallying nicely. There are other areas showing leadership as well, like some internet stocks that you have never heard of before. ACOM is exploding higher as well out of a little triangle. TROW is breaking higher after a nice pullback. A little flag to the 18 day EMA. VIT gapped higher over another flag that tested the 50 day EMA. It was not a huge move on Friday, but it looks ready to move. There are many stocks that are great, quality stocks that you may not have heard of very much. They are performing very well and are ready to move up.


Leadership may be changing somewhat. Some of the early leaders are turning weary, but money is rotating into other areas. This makes perfect sense. Am I planning on the economy booming down the road? No, but some people are wearing rose-colored glasses about what may happen. I guess 3% growth would be very good given what we have had. I do know that there are hundreds of billions of dollars that will be pushed into the financial markets whether the stock markets, currency markets, bond market, or the commodities markets and that will cause them to rise. There is not enough economic activity to soak up all of those funds, so they will go quickly into the financial system and push stocks higher.

That is why I am anticipating more of a move upside through the end of the year as some big hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds chase performance. All that money will be shoved into the market. It is a great racket for the banks and financial institutions that get the money at virtually 0% borrowing it from our Fed and then turn around and either buy bonds and collect the yield for easy money, or they push it into the commodities markets or the stock market and try to get really big gains. That happened in 1999, and it has happened other times in history when we have massive liquifications of the market by the Fed. That is why the old adage exists that says, "You do not fight the Fed." When it starts to push massive amounts of money in, it will make markets higher whether there is economic growth or not. While there will be ups and downs just as we saw this past week with the SP500 and other indices pulling back, they cannot withstand the tidal wave of money that continues to come to the market.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. The VIX tumbled lower to end the week as stocks tried to rebound off of their early selling. Tuesday volatility gapped to the upside, and then gapped right back down. It is now trading at the October and early November levels where the market encountered a bit of trouble. There is a little correlation setting up now between volatility and market action. That correlation breaks down, it solidifies again, and then it breaks down. Repeat the process. There may be a correlation developing now, and I would anticipate that the market runs into a bit of trouble here. That makes sense with Thanksgiving week and stocks often having trouble finding traction before they start moving up between Thanksgiving and Christmas. We may see a little giveback next week based upon the VIX, but it is not a strong correlation at this point.

VIX: 18.04; -0.71
VXN: 19.78; -0.48
VXO: 17.44; -1.05

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.66; -0.17

Bulls versus Bears:

The CROSSOVER from August is long gone but it did its job.

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 56.2 versus 48.4%. The strongest move upside since May, indeed topping that level and getting closer to the 5 year high at 62.0. Moving toward the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. This is where you start to be careful and watch for breakdowns, but there is also a lot of liquidity being pushed into the market and that can continue the move despite excess bullishness. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 20.2% versus 23.1%. Continuing the slide after holding steady at 24.4% for two weeks. Down from 28.3% in September. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +3.72 points (+0.15%) to close at 2518.12
Volume: 1.796B (-9.96%)

Up Volume: 1.018B (-602.285M)
Down Volume: 735.769M (+308.692M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.23 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.99 to 1

New Highs: 95 (+6)
New Lows: 50 (+7)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +3.04 points (+0.25%) to close at 1199.73
NYSE Volume: 1.104B (-8.9%)

Up Volume: 635.459M (-410.663M)
Down Volume: 444.027M (+301.843M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.46 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.11 to 1

New Highs: 184 (-26)
New Lows: 17 (+2)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +22.32 points (+0.2%) to close at 11203.55
Volume DJ30: 219M shares Friday versus 172M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

It is Thanksgiving. It is a fun week, but it means a lot of the economic data will be jumbled up around the day. Tuesday and Wednesday, we will have a lot of information. The second rendition of the GDP is out Tuesday morning. 2.4% expected versus 2%. Then there will be existing home sales, and that will catch the attention of the market. We need to know how many sales are out there and what those inventory levels are. Wednesday is a lot more data. Income and spending, core PCE, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, Michigan Sentiment, and new home sales just to name a few. A full week crammed in ahead of the holiday. It will be a short week. The market will not be open on Thursday, and it is a half day on Friday. They should close it on Friday, but the old theory is that the market cannot be closed for four days straight.

Thanksgiving week in the market is usually problematic. It goes up, it goes down, and it is not a clear directional week. The bias is upside. Near term, it has been back to the downside, so we may muddle around a little more as the indices test back. NASDAQ is still in no man's land, so it may find difficulty moving higher. It probably wanted to test lower and never got opportunity to do so. Maybe this week it will just bang around laterally a bit, tighten its range, and then it would be ready for a move higher after Thanksgiving. When the market has an upside bias and tons of money is coming into the market on a good year that a lot of hedge funds and mutual funds missed, they will want to chase that performance to the end of the year. Then they can show their investors that they were actually doing something and making some money. That money is being purchased into the financial system and will find its way into the markets. I anticipate these stocks to move higher.

Some of these old leaders that we have been following and still have positions in are not breaking down. They are just moving laterally. I want to let them base out because there is no reason to sell AAPL when it is up 100% or so for us. We can just let it move. Other stocks, however, are coming out with new leaders that you may not know that well, but are excellent companies. They will get money, and they will race to the upside. We have been buying them when things were not so great, but they were showing upside because they are leaders. By definition, leaders take off first. You can see a stock like DECK exploding to the upside while the indices are still below their November peaks. The leaders are already taking off to the upside, and we got good buys on them earlier in the week. We will continue to look for those. We will have some plays for next week, and we will see if we get buys on them. We may get some better entry points if the pre-Thanksgiving sessions are a little bit weaker. A little more consolidation would not hurt at all. We can be ready for some plays to start the next week.

To recap, we have some good entry points and we took advantage of them this week. Next week, we may get some more decent entry points if the markets do not rally to the upside. We will have to see what happens. Again, the days before Thanksgiving are problematic, and they can be up or down. Recently, they have been down over the years, but not dramatically so. We could get a little more pullback, a perfect position for more of the new emerging leaders to start higher with that money that will come in and push stocks higher, I believe, toward the end of the year as big funds chase performance.

Liquefying the markets and pushing them higher, making people have to get out of cash because they are earning zero this wealth-effect attempt will likely not end up with the best results. As chairman Bernanke said on Friday, we need different fiscal programs to help the monetary side of the equation. Raising taxes and spending like there is no tomorrow are not the fiscal solutions to help solve the problem. If we do that, it would be better for chairman Bernanke to raise interest rates. It would also be a great move if we would just get rid of the income tax and replace it with a national sales tax. We would get more real savings going there, if we raised interest rates, we would get more real savings going on. We could be smart about Social Security and parcel it up. For those that are too old to save for their future right now, we keep the promises we made for them. For the younger group anywhere from 40's, 50's and below we would start changing that to a privatized system and unleash all kinds of capital in the US.

We could really put some smart fiscal policies in place to take advantage of the monetary policies and create growth in the US. We could have China holding our debt, but not because it has to. We would make the US once again a great place for people to invest in because they would see real growth emerging from these kinds of policies. We should pull back from the policies of big government and regulating all parts of our lives. We should let the individuals use their ingenuity and entrepreneurial spirit to create new businesses and new ways of doing things that only individuals can come up with. If we would do that, we would create the climate where other countries want to invest in the US for growth reasons versus just having to hold our debt and pray that we do not totally screw up with our monetary and fiscal policies.

A bit of me on the soap box to wrap it up, but it is getting toward the end of the year. I always need to start prognosticating about what is coming. With cotton hitting an all-time high and other commodities right at that level as well, it is worrisome about what we are promulgating out of Washington. We need to get our eye back on the ball, or we will see a lot of inflation exploding. If we think we have had bad times to this point, just wait and see what happens if that inflation comes. People are not paying back debts or borrowing money right now because there is inflation. When inflation comes, that is when you want to pay back your debts. You want to pay back your debts with cheaper dollars. If there is a lot of inflation to come, which people are anticipating, there is no reason to start paying back debts or take on big projects because they would rather do it with funny money later.

Have a great weekend. All that funny money means the market probably continues to the upside after this pullback, and we have some great positions this week to take advantage of it. I think there will be more coming our way as we ride this wave of liquidity higher.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2518.12

Resistance:
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2530 is the April 2010 closing peak
2535.28 is the April 2010 intraday peak
2540 is the gap up point from early November
2550 from May and June 2008 peaks
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2593 is the November 2010 high
2725 from July 2007 interim peak
2735 from late 2007 interim peak
2862 is the 2007 peak

Support:
2511 is the lower range of the November gap up point
2482 is the recent October peak
The 50 day EMA at 2445
2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
2382-2395 from 2008
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
The 200 day SMA at 2326
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2310 is the August 2010 peak


S&P 500: Closed at 1199.73
Resistance:
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak

Support:
1185 from late September 2008
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
The 50 day EMA at 1171
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
The 200 day SM A at 1130
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows


Dow: Closed at 11,203.55
Resistance:
11,205 is the April closing high
11,258 is the April 2010 peak
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
11,100 from the 7-08 low
The 50 day EMA at 11,004
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
The 200 day SMA at 10,599
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

November 23 - Tuesday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q3 (08:30): 2.4% expected, 2.0% prior
GDP Deflator - Second estimate, Q3 (08:30): 2.3% expected, 2.3% prior
Existing Home Sales, October (10:00): 4.42M expected, 4.53M prior
Minutes of FOMC Meet, November 3 (14:00)

November 24 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Application, 11/19 (07:00): -14.4% prior
Personal Income, October (08:30): 0.4% expected, -0.1% prior
Personal Spending, October (08:30): 0.5% expected, 0.2% prior
PCE Prices - Core, October (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Durable Orders, October (08:30): -0.3% expected, 3.3% prior
Durable Orders -ex t, October (08:30): 0.4% expected, -0.8% prior
Initial Claims, 11/20 (08:30): 442K expected, 440K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/13 (08:30): 4280K expected, 4295K prior
Michigan Sentiment, November (09:55): 69.4 expected, 69.3 prior
New Home Sales, October (10:00): 312K expected, 307 prior
FHFA Home Price Index, Q3 (10:00): 0.9% prior
Crude Inventories, 11/20 (10:30): -7.29M prior

November 18 - Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims, 11/13 (08:30): 439K actual versus 442K expected, 437K prior (revised from 435K)
Continuing Claims, 11/06 (08:30): 4295K actual versus 4300K expected, 4343K prior (revised from 4301K)
Leading Economic Indicators, October (10:00): 0.5% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%)
Philadelphia Fed, November (10:00): 22.5 actual versus 5.0 expected, 1.0 prior (no revisions)

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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