- No fireworks, but indices fight off another intraday reversal, close near session highs.
- Semiconductors try to undermine the rally, manage to come back.
- Wholesale inventories post 2 year gain, but as sales rise as well this is a glass half full story.
- Some stocks extended on this run, but others are setting up to push the indices higher in the range.
- Still nothing to say this is anything more than a rally inside the range, but we can live with that.
- Option open interests, spreads.
Stocks keep the market bounce chugging along for a second week, though the momentum wanes.
The one thing that the market action told us this week was it is still very much in a trading range. There was the big move up the prior week, and then on Tuesday it tried to give the move back. The rest of the week was almost spent in recovery mode. Thursday saw a big intraday reversal that made things somewhat precarious, but on Friday the market overcame an attempt to sell it off intraday and rallied into the close. It closed near session highs, keeping the rally in good shape. But it is already losing momentum. Yes, the upside push appears to be waning, even though there is still roughly 20-22 points for the SP500 to move up just to get to the June and August peaks. That is not even counting the top of the resistance range at the January peak. We have a bit of waning momentum.
On the flipside, while some of the stocks that have led the charge are running out of steam, others are setting up and ready to make the move higher. We will look at some of these when I talk about leaders, but you are well aware of the casual diners in retail that I have been talking about. DRI is making a solid move, and our good friend EAT is trying to make the move, but it could not stick on the day. The new emerging leaders coming back into play, as retail appears to be doing, may give extra legs and new life to the rally up toward the top of the range. That may provide, lo and behold, a breakout of the range. I am not predicting a breakout at this point. I only said this action showed that this is definitely trading inside of a range. Just look at the volume. If a significant number of new leaders step up to the plate or prior leaders that have been recycled through this basing process that could send the indices to a breakout. I will put this caveat on it: A lot more need to shape up and step up before that would happen. There is not enough quality leadership in position to move right now to break the indices out. It does not mean that will not change, but there has to be more stepping up.
What does the trading range tell us? Right now, the economic data and the gloom are such that it is ripe for a contrary play, which would be a breakout. What would a breakout tell you? That would mean that the economic conditions are better than the current conventional wisdom, i.e., slowing and in trouble. I said earlier in the week that the gloom is about as bad as you can get for the economy. Typically there are turns in the market or a bottom of a trough in the economic data when things appear to be their darkest. Those tend to occur at the same time because the market precedes the turn in the economy. We will not know about the bottom of a trough in an economic cycle until months after the fact, but the market sniffs it out in advance and makes its move early. We will watch key indices that is all of them, but particularly the growth indices and the SP600.
We will watch them all for breakouts of trading ranges because a trading range is a period of indecision. The buyers and sellers are evenly matched. Sure, the buyers take over at some points and drive stocks higher, but then the sellers come back in and drive them right back down and the cycle repeats itself. It does that until there is a breakout. In other words, one side dominates the other. It is not the Aggie sex manual, as we say down here in Texas: "In, out, repeat as necessary," where there is only one rotation. No, it is several rotations as they slug it out and eventually make the breakout. Again, I am not predicting it. But, as they said in Stripes, "We are open to new ideas." I think I may have gotten that quote wrong, but you get the idea.
Where does that leave the market? That leaves the market still well off the peak in this trading range, so is there room to run. That is a positive because we have great plays that can go to the upside and still make us even more money beyond the gain we took this week. We banked some nice gain indeed. It also means we can have some new plays to continue to move higher. There are stocks in position to move, like some of the casual eateries. On the day, it was not a grand performance, but it beat the heck out of Thursday's intraday reversal. NASDAQ +0.3%, SP500 +0.5%, Dow +0.46%, SP600 +0.15%, NASDAQ 100 +0.3%, SOX -1.4%. The chip stocks were down because there was bad word out of TXN and NSM. The market was hoping the chips would say business was actually improving; instead they said the opposite and were taken out and beaten about the head and shoulders. They did recover in the session, however.
Dollar. The dollar once again did a big nothing on the day, stalling out once more at the 50 day EMA. It has been moving laterally since coming off of the last test. That is not necessarily bad action. It is trying to set up for a second break to the upside. Its second attempt never got underway before the three-week, lateral-to-slightly-lower move. We will see if the dollar can make this break and continue higher. The dollar has been something of a fear trade as worries about Europe and the US hit a crescendo. It seems strange that the dollar would get investors when the US economy was in question, but that goes to show you how concerned investors around the world are about the world economic recovery. The dollar closed slightly weaker (1.2712 Euro versus 1.2701 Thursday). Intraday it was stronger, trading down to 1.26 range, but as the day went on it lost ground. A little bit of concern crept in and stocks were able to hold their gain, making the dollar less a repository of extra funds on the day. No big change in the chart at all.
Bonds. Since there was no fear and stocks were up, bonds sold off again (US 10 year 2.79% versus 2.75% Thursday). It was not long ago that the 10 year was in the 2.5 range. It sold back off and broke below the 50 day EMA. Indeed, it hit a new closing low for this selloff of the past three weeks. Now it has filled the gap, and it is sitting right on top of the June and July peaks That is where it sold off last week before it bounced, and now it has come back to test. It is a key point for the bonds. If it can hold and bounce here, we will have an upside play. This is going to be key, and I note that there was a tight doji on Friday at this level, so it may yield an upside play on the TLT. We will have to see. Bonds have gone about as far as they can go. If there is any hint that the world economies will improve, then bonds are going to sell. They have been rallying like crazy. Right now we will watch. Maybe next week we can get another quick upside play off of this one but, overall, I do not like the prospects for bonds getting much higher long term, although they are at key support right now.
Gold. Gold has been struggling a bit. It made an excellent run back up to the all-time peaks posted in June of this year, and it started to sell off some during the week. We entered a GLD play to the downside, and we are just seeing if it will break down. It was showing a lack of momentum up at the top. It had that evening star doji, and then it sold off but tried to hold. It did hold at the 18 day EMA on Friday. Still looking for a downside move to test this range. It could go near the 50 day EMA, and it could go even lower. We will see what happens. I am still banking that it goes a bit lower, but gold is one of the inflation hedges above all. In other words, fear sends money into the gold, but gold is ultimately an inflation hedge. If the economies start to show any inkling of a solid economic recovery, gold prices will run higher because of the insanely large amounts of liquidity flowing through the world economies. If gold senses that the economies are getting ready to take off, it will sense inflation ratcheting up and it will jump higher. We have to watch it. The downside play is one of not anticipating any immediate recovery in the economies, and we will see how that works out. It looks somewhat weak right here and ready to test back some after such a great run since mid-July.
Oil. Oil jumped up sharply today, breaking through the 50 day EMA and the recent peaks, and it was a strong move ($76.45, +$2.20). There was a pipeline closure. It had to be shut down in the west, and that is causing a shortage in the US. That drove prices artificially higher. You might consider filling up your tanks. It looked like oil might try to make a break higher, and though it got an unexpected catalyst, it did push it higher. With this type of news, it may not be able to hold those gains for long.
Overall, the fear trade died down over the week. It tried to flare up early in the week when stocks sold off but, as the rally continued, the fear trade diminished somewhat. I expect it to diminish further as long as the indices continue to trek higher in their trading range. How much higher? There is not much room, so there could be a bit more upside. That will be the most telling point whether there will be a breakout by the indices, and then the other markets will react accordingly.
Volume. Volume was slightly lower at 1.65 shares on NASDAQ. It was down less than 1%, but still well below average. It was down almost 10% on the NYSE to 754M shares, well below the billion-level everyone uses as the yardstick for moves for those indices.
Breadth. Breadth was nondescript at +1.2:1 on the NASDAQ, +1.9:1 on the NYSE. No excitement at all, just basically boring, blas , and tracking the lack of movement in the indices.
SP500. SP500 continued the move. It tried to sell off, but it held its poise through Tuesday and the intraday reversal on Thursday. It closed near the high on the week. That pushed it over 1106, the next resistance for the index, but it has serious resistance ahead of it. It still has to get through the 200 day EMA at 1116, and then it has the August and June peak at 1131 on the intraday high. That does not even account for the January peak, and the top of that is all the way up to 1150. That would be a nice extension of this move. It would not necessarily be a breakout, although it would be a breakout over the past five month's trading range. It would be an excellent move, and we would make a lot of money off of that on our upside plays. But we cannot count on that because momentum was waning. We need to see a good, strong break next week to the upside. I will be watching closely. The VIX is at levels were the index peaked before in August it was at the top of the range. Remember, the VIX was down here. Well, it is down here again, and the index is not even at the top of its range. That bears close watching next week as a new full-strength week gets underway.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ was able to post a gain as well after it gapped and reversed on Thursday. Same issue here: A lack of momentum. After a strong move the first week of the rebound, it slowed down. That is typical. There is nothing strange about momentum waning on the second week, but there was a lot of struggle going on here as well. And it still has a significant way before it makes it to the top of its range. There is plenty of room to run, but we have to watch to make sure it does not run out of gas prematurely.
SP600. SP600 was up just 0.15%, and it went nowhere on the day. As noted on Thursday, however, it has one of the better-looking consolidations mid-range in its trading range. It is skirting sideways, just over the 50 day EMA, showing a tight doji on Friday. It is in position to make the break to the upside. It would be very nice to see the small caps lead to the upside. That will be one of the indicators as to whether the market is pricing in better economic times ahead, right in the midst of the gloomiest period for economic data that we have seen. Often they go together, but right now is there nothing to suggest from the market that there will be a sustained recovery because they are not in position to make to breakout at this point.
SOX. SOX sold off on the TXN and NSM news, and a lot of semiconductors were hit hard, but they did manage to come back. They are still below the bottom of the range, and that did some damage to the Friday action. You can see the left shoulder, the head, and then it's trying to form the right shoulder. It was starting to try a move up, but then it was smacked down on Friday. It does not mean it will not happen, it was just a setback. Since I short the SMH, that is fine with me.
There is a pattern here. A lot of the stocks that have led the move are extended. Other stocks that were not leading but have come to life are extended after a short rally higher because their patterns are not that great. There are some stocks that are in position to move, but we need to see more of them.
Financial. JPM has made a good move off of the bottom of its range over the last two weeks. It could move higher as could SP500, but it has some serious resistance overhead, and it is not in the best entry point right now. Same with MS. It has rallied nicely as well. Good move the prior week, a test early this week, and then a rally to close out the week. It is already at some significant resistance points. Again, not a great buy position right now. It is a bit extended off the bottom of its range. Will it be leading higher? It is not in a great risk/reward position for a new move. It does not mean it cannot do it, but it is not in a great position. With the resistance, you would not put your money to work right here, and that typically indicates the move needs a pullback or test first.
Metals. CLF had a nice pullback to near support at the 10 day EMA and above another peak. It might lead to a new bounce. That has the potential to rally back up to the prior high and help lead the market. The last two weeks, FCX it has helped lead the market. It has moved laterally somewhat, trying to consolidate at some resistance. It has room to run up to 88 or so and help lead the market higher as well. There is some room here, but it needs more consolidation.
Technology. AAPL is at the top of its range, and it is stalling a bit. If AAPL breaks out, that would be a positive sign for technology, but it is not showing it is ready to do that just yet. I am looking at MACD and the last time it was at this level. It is trying to move above that and show a bit of a positive divergence, but it has not done it yet. We have had some great moves from the cloud computers, such as FFIV. It is pulling back to test. It seems to have a lot of lives in it, and it just broke out of a triangle and is coming back to test. We can make a trade out of that, but not necessarily one that you would think has another 50% move in front of it. RAX surged higher on Friday, good for us. That will help. That is one that broke out of a flag pattern itself and has given a nice run higher. AKAM is making a test similar to FFIV, but it has another good run under its belt. We can make a trade out of it but, again, you are just looking at a trade and not necessarily the stock going up 50% again from here.
Industrial. CAT is back up at a significant resistance point, and MACD is lagging far behind. That would be a negative divergent top that could indicate some downside. You have to be wary. DE is the same story. It is up at a key resistance point, but it is pulling back in a flag after a nice break higher in its ABCD pattern. It has come back to hold above the 10 day EMA. MACD was lower here as well, so we are watching to see if we get a breakout move on a position. JOYG has come back to a prior peak and is struggling a bit as well. It is not in a position to extend or come back and test right now.
Energy. Energy has been kind of quiet. LUFK is one that I am in, and it bolted higher to the top of its range on Friday. I took some off the table as that was the plan. Now we see if it can break out of the range, but it is more of a rare bird in energy. CVX is performing fairly well, but it has a ragged pattern and is coming back up to a key resistance point. Not necessarily in the position you would want to buy. The oil service companies are similar; they have rallied higher but they are not necessarily impressive. They are approaching resistance as well. We may not get a lot more help from them on this move either.
Retail. We need to find stocks that will help the market extend, and there are some retailers performing better. EAT is in a nice flag pattern after a strong surge the prior week. Still in position to move higher. DRI moved higher nicely on Friday.YUM started to break higher on Friday as well. There are stocks in position to move higher, but we need to get more of them. ROST looks ready to move up, but most of the retailers are like this. They are rebuilding. They may provide the leadership that is needed, but outside of these, the leadership is scattered among the various sectors. It is not easy to find new sectors with a bunch of stocks that are ready to make the break to the upside. They are all pretty much extended.
We may get to the top of that range on the back of some of these retailers perhaps, and a continued extension of the current runs and the leaders that have rallied nicely over the last couple of weeks. Then, after that, we get a trade back down in the range as they test the recent moves. That would not necessarily be a bad thing. What if SP500 rallies up to the prior peaks and stalls? We talk our gain on the SSO and a bunch of other positions. And then it comes back down and holds the 50 day EMA which would have risen up behind it (maybe the 200 day EMA, but not as likely). Then you may get your breakout. I always watch a trading range and look for a significant higher low in the top half of the range. If you see that, then you watch for that breakout. You can actually see the move out of the range.
It could be setting up for a run up to the peak or close to it and then we could get the test back into this range near 1110, where it is now. Then if it can hold between the 200 day EMA and the 50 day EMA, we might get the upside breakout. That would be truly exciting for the upside, as it would indicate this market is starting to build in some economic improvement down the road. Obviously it would start to improve based upon just how strong it thinks the economic recovery would be. I do not think there is any way a renewed economic recovery can have any real strength to it. This may all be a play on the election coming up in November. If it feels that will happen, they will stop some spending, get some programs in place that help business the market would rally on that as well. We will just have to watch how the technical action plays out and how the indices test the highs. And, if they do break back down, whether they can make a higher low. What does that tell us for now? We are in a trading range, and we are playing it as such.
VIX. The VIX has fallen to the range it hit in August when the market peaked out and rotated back down in its trading range. There is some suggestion that the market may be peaking out on this move. It does not mean it will immediately turn over, but there was weak momentum on the upside on SP500 this week, and we will be watching how much momentum there is early in the week. In other words, whether the move completely runs out as the real post-summer session begins (typically the week after the Labor Day holiday week). VIX is at a level where it has led to a market correction within the trading range during the last four to five months. We will see if we get that this week, and that is worth noting as we start a new week with the SP500 and the other indices showing a bit of weakness.
VIX: 21.99; -0.82
VXN: 22.98; -0.31
VXO: 20.89; -0.64
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.28; +0.22
Bulls versus Bears:
The CROSSOVER from the prior week reverted, but the bulls and bears are still close together. That crossover is a bullish indicator, and the market has rallied off of it. Question is, did it generate the momentum for a range breakout?
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 33.3% versus 29.4%. Back to the exact level from three weeks back. Still below the 35% considered a bullish indicator. This bolsters the upside run in the range. Bulls and bears are starting to merge again though no crossover yet. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 32.2% versus 37.7%. Sharp decline in bears and back below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +6.28 points (+0.28%) to close at 2242.48
Volume: 1.648B (-0.77%)
Up Volume: 750.579M (-226.144M)
Down Volume: 903.484M (+263.452M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.21 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
New Highs: 37 (-39)
New Lows: 43 (+1)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: +5.37 points (+0.49%) to close at 1109.55
NYSE Volume: 754.848M (-9.89%)
Up Volume: 493.973M (-73.362M)
Down Volume: 221.294M (-40.086M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.87 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.67 to 1
New Highs: 256 (-47)
New Lows: 8 (-6)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +47.53 points (+0.46%) to close at 10462.77
Volume DJ30: 140M shares Friday versus 163M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
We have a lot of data coming out once more. Monday not as much, but we get the important retail sales for August on Tuesday, and that will be the back to school sales. We saw same store sales were better than expected, and that will be important. We get regional manufacturing data, the New York Fed on Wednesday. That will be important along with industrial production and capacity, and then we will get the initial claims. In addition, there will be the Philly Fed on Thursday. We will have the PPI that will have some influence, but not a lot. CPI will also have some but not a lot. Michigan Sentiment is something people will really be looking at. There was improving sentiment based on gasoline prices and maybe some wage growth, as the last jobs report showed. We want to see that sentiment continue to ramp up.
As for the market, what do we expect looking at stocks? Again, the momentum waned somewhat this week in the push up toward the top of the trading range. That does not mean it is over. We could still get some extra momentum next week that carries the SP500 to the 200 day EMA, and even beyond to the 1131 peak of the near resistance in the trading range. Indeed, that is key resistance because the market has been thwarted the last two times it has made it that high. We will be watching for that. At the same time, we are watching what happens early in the week. There were some selling attempts this week on Tuesday and Thursday even on Friday, but they overcame them Friday. More players will be back in the market, and we are getting close to the top of the range. I see volatility at a level were the last market rally peaked out and the selling started. We have a confluence of many factors. We also have many of the leaders in this bounce off of the low. They are extended after two weeks to the upside. There are some others coming up to bat, such as the casual diners, but there are not a lot of sectors that are in the same position that can push the market to the upside.
We have to be very careful with what we have. We have some nice gains, and we have been taking nice gains along the way. If is there a push higher, we will let them rally, but we are still in a trading range. We still have the volatility and the volume of a trading range, so we need to be careful. If we get the moves we want up to the top of the range, we will have to take gains. That is because the odds of this market giving the extended position of many leaders the odds of the market breaking out of the range on this move are low. If there is a test back toward the 1110 level, where SP500 is now, then we could make a higher low. If so, a break to the upside. That would be great. We will get some of those leaders, and we will get a good test and be in position to move higher. That will buy time also for more stocks to finish bases and get into good position to move. This is going to be a two-to-three week event. Maybe even a month-long event, i.e. rallying up to the old resistance and pulling back to consolidate and test at a higher low.
We need to be a bit cautious and stick to the plan; that is, when the market gets to the top of the range, take some gain. We also want to be able to play that move. We have those eateries, the specialty casual diners, and we will be looking at other retail and other stocks in position. Again, there are just not that many to drive things higher. We found some great plays like RAX and others, but they are more scattered. I like to see waves come in and have waves back behind the leaders to push earning higher. Use a little caution, play the move up to the top of the range (or as close as it comes), take some gain, and then watch how the test comes about. We can play some downside that is ripe, but we will still be watching to see if there is an upside break. Right now, there is nothing to indicate there will be. Other than some historical facts of prior recessions and recoveries that tend to suggest that a trough could be in place. Extreme gloom and pessimism about the market, all the while the indices trading in a trading range and not breaking lower as you would anticipate given all the extreme pessimism.
Then there is some leadership coming up nicely. One sector that is returning not to prominence yet, but showing great promise is retail. It should not be doing well if the economy is going to head lower. There are some positives out there. There are some nascent possibilities of a breakout, but I do not want to read too much into them. The market will tell us what will happen. Until it changes its character, we are in a trading range and we will play that trading range. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2242.48
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2273
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2310 is the August 2010 peak
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
The 50 day EMA at 2215
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the recent August intraday low
2061 is the July 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 1109.55
1114 is the November 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1116
1119 is the early December intraday high
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
The 50 day EMA at 1089
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,462.77
The 200 day SMA at 10,452 is cracking
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 10,318
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 13 - Monday
Treasury Budget, August (14:00): -$95.0B expected, -$103.6B prior
September 14 - Tuesday
Retail Sales, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Business Inventories, July (10:00): 0.8% expected, 0.3% prior
September 15 - Wednesday
NY Fed - Empire Manu, September (08:30): 5.0 expected, 7.1 prior
Export Prices ex-ag., August (08:30): -0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, August (08:30): -0.3% prior
Industrial Production, August (09:15): 0.3% expected, 1.0% prior
Capacity Utilization, August (09:15): 75.0 expected, 74.8% prior
Crude Inventories, 09/11 (10:30): -1.85M prior
September 16 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/11 (08:30): 460K expected, 451K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/4 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4478K prior
PPI, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Current Account, Q2 (08:30): -$125.0 expected, -$109.0B prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (09:00): $44.4B prior
Philadelphia Fed, September (10:00): 0.0 expected, -7.7 prior
September 17 - Friday
CPI, August (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, September (09:55): 70.0 expected, 68.9 prior
September 08 - Wednesday
Consumer Credit, July (15:00): -$3.6B actual versus -$5.25B expected, -$1.0B prior (revised from -$1.3B)
September 09 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/04 (08:30): 451K actual versus 470K expected, 478K prior (revised from 478K)
Continuing Claims, 08/28 (08:30): 4478K actual versus 4445K expected, 4480K prior (revised from 4456K)
Trade Balance, July (08:30): -$42.8B actual versus -$47.3B expected, -$49.8B prior (revised from -$49.9B)
Crude Inventories, 09/03 (11:00): -1.85M actual versus 3.42M prior
September 10 - Friday
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 1.3% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.1%)
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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