Sunday, June 02, 2019

Did the Proposed Tariffs on Mexico Break the Market's Back? (Weekend Newsletter)

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Weekend Newsletter for
June 2, 2019


Table Of Contents

1) MARKET SUMMARY from THE DAILY

2) STOCK SPLIT REPORT

3) IH ALERTS

4) SUCCESS TRADING GROUP

5) COVERED CALL SERVICE

      

Jon Johnson
1) MARKET SUMMARY
         > >From "The Daily" by Jon Johnson at InvestmentHouse.com


Friday was a case of piling on.

- Trump proposes tariffs on Mexico, perhaps breaks the market's back.
- Economic data still mixed in US, bad elsewhere.
- SP500, NASDAQ fail the attempt to hold the 200 day SMA.
- Leadership as thin as tissue paper, but those leading are solid.
- One pair of bonds inverted, oil in freefall, gold jumping, stocks down for another week.
- Bias remains downside but remember oversold bounces start when things look worst.


Market Summary (continued)
Friday was a case of piling on. Even though there was some decent news (Chicago PMI, Incomes) there was also less than good news. Trump ready to assess 5% tariffs on Mexican goods in a bid to force Mexico to crack down on illegal immigration to the US. China PMI manufacturing fell back to contraction at 49.4. China said it is ready to 'blacklist' certain US companies. Personal spending fell to 0.3% from 1.1% with real spending flat after a surge in March. Yen and yang.

The economic data for the most part did not help - core PCE rose to 1.6% from 1.5%, though the 1.5 was a downward revision. Nonetheless, that data was seen as anti-FOMC rate cut although various contracts are pricing in a 75BP, yes 75, rate cut with 50BP as early as September.

What was the killer that killed futures Thursday evening: the proposed 5% tariffs on all Mexican goods with the added insult that the rate could rise if Mexico does not quell the illegal immigration into the US.

This threat by the Administration may be the thing that broke the market's back. Already weak from the head and shoulders patterns the past 3 months; the double tops on SP500, NASDAQ and DJ30; the 17 months of lateral movement since January 2018; worries about China trade, European economics, a yield curve inversion . . . this news was more than the market could bear.

Read "The Daily" Entire Weekend Summary
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Watch Technical Summary Video
Watch Next Session Video


Here's a trade from "The Daily" and insights into our trading strategy:


Chart by StockCharts.com
Please turn on your ability to receive graphics. We are providing you with a detailed chart of this stock. If you are unable to turn on graphics, please CLICK HERE or on the *Read Our Weekend Report Online* link above.
CDNS (Cadence Design Systems--$63.57; -0.74; optionable): Software
Company Profile
EARNINGS: 07/22/2019
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Excellent rally from the January breakout, moving up the 10 day EMA through mid-May. What a move. Two big gaps on the way up, one not so big; three gaps we can see, and that means start watching for a reversal. As CDNS put in a higher high in early May, MACD did not follow and volume was tepid. A short double top then a gap lower two weeks back. Sold to the 50 day in one move, followed by sideways movement last week that formed the right shoulder. Friday a gap lower on strong volume. We are ready to move in as CDNS continues lower with an eye on the upper gap point as the initial target. That move gains 85%ish on the put options.
CHART VIDEO
Volume: 2.207M Avg Volume: 2.289M
BUY POINT: $63.07 Volume=2.5M Target=$55.65 Stop=$65.52
POSITION: CDNS AUG 16 2019 65.00 P - (-55 delta)

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2) STOCK SPLIT REPORT

Here's a leader play and our current analysis.

Chart by StockCharts.com
Please turn on your ability to receive graphics. We are providing you with a detailed chart of this stock. If you are unable to turn on graphics, please CLICK HERE or on the *Read Our Weekend Report Online* link above.
HIIQ (Health Insurance Innovations--$25.79; +2.32; optionable): Health care plans
Company Profile
EARNINGS: 08/05/2019
STATUS: Inverted head and shoulders. Nifty pattern with a peak in September 2018 that then formed a large 6+ month double bottom with lows in December and May. The past 8 weeks as the second bottom formed, HIIQ formed an inverted head and shoulders. Note how MACD put in a higher low as price put in a lower low early May. Nice break higher Friday on volume when most of the market sold - money moving its way. As HIIQ moves through the 50 day EMA we want to move in. Our initial target is not that aggressive but lands a good gain, 20% stock, 70%ish on the options.
CHART VIDEO
Volume: 689.355K Avg Volume: 955.372K
BUY POINT: $25.89 Volume=1.2M Target=$31.31 Stop=$24.09
POSITION: HIIQ AUG 16 2019 25.00 C - (61 delta) &/or Stock

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Chart by StockCharts.com
Please turn on your ability to receive graphics. We are providing you with a detailed chart of this stock. If you are unable to turn on graphics, please CLICK HERE or on the *Read Our Weekend Report Online* link above.
3) IH ALERTS

EL (Estee Lauder--$161.03; -4.58; optionable): Makeup
Company Profile
EARNINGS: 07/31/2019
STATUS: EL broke out in February from an 8 month base, rallying very nicely into late April. As it put in that high MACD was trending lower; momentum waning. On May 1 a big gap higher (earnings) that reversed intraday to a loss. That prompted a drop to the 50 day MA, a bounce, then a new slide lower the past 2+ weeks, breaking the 50 day EMA with some authority on Friday. Anticipating a continued drop to near the upper gap point from early February. That move gains 65%ish on the put options.
CHART VIDEO
Volume: 1.385M Avg Volume: 1.569M
BUY POINT: $160.89 Volume=1.6M Target=$149.45 Stop=$164.22
POSITION: EL JUL 19 2019 160.00 P - (-35 delta)

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Chart by StockCharts.com
Please turn on your ability to receive graphics. We are providing you with a detailed chart of this stock. If you are unable to turn on graphics, please CLICK HERE or on the *Read Our Weekend Report Online* link above.
4) SUCCESS TRADING GROUP
--by the MarketFN STG Team

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc.)
Company Profile
Our Success Trading Group members closed a winning trade on Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (Ticker: AMD) this week when we traded in and out of AMD the same day. We have several stocks on our radar and are looking forward to trading next week.

Our Success Trading Group closed
7 years with 0 losses on our Main Trade Table. In fact, we closed 100% winning trades for the calendar years 2016, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009. All of these trades are posted on our Main Trade Table for your review during your free membership trial period.

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Chart by StockCharts.com
Please turn on your ability to receive graphics. We are providing you with a detailed chart of this stock. If you are unable to turn on graphics, please CLICK HERE or on the *Read Our Weekend Report Online* link above.
5) COVERED CALL PLAY

KBH - KB Home is currently trading at $25.13. The July $25.00 Calls (KBH20190720C00025000) are trading at $1.54. That provides a return of about 6% if KBH is above $25.00 on expiration Friday in July.
Company Profile



Learn more about our Covered Call Tables


PREMIUM SERVICES
IH Alerts: InvestmentHouse.com's Best of The Best Plays!
Stock Split Report: Forbes.com Best of the Web
Covered Calls: Allowed in your IRA - Energize your portfolio!
The Daily: "The Daily" is a must read for all investors!
Success Trading Group: 7 years without a trading loss!
The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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