Monday, May 28, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 5-26-18

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5/26/2018 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:


Targets hit: ATHM; NFLX
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: ESV; HAL; PTEN; SPN
Stop alerts: CVX; NBR; RIG; SLB

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- NKorean summit back on after NK spanked. Of course the US and China are
now facing off in the South China Sea.
- Several old and new leadership groups posted decent moves the second half
of the week.
- SOX breaks past the top of its range while NYSE indices, NASDAQ still
trying to make the next break. Nice patterns, getting to be time to move.

Hello everyone! This weekend we graduate one of our children so we are very
heavy on the festivities. We have some great new plays to present. The
play tables are updated with analysis. The Market Summary is a bit briefer,
but there was little change in the overall market Friday. No videos this
weekend. Thank you for letting us take a bit of time with the family on an
important occasion.

The week saw some improvement in upside movement as some leadership groups
started higher off tests and managed to push their indices higher, e.g. SOX,
NASDAQ. The move started Wednesday and was mostly growth based. RUTX did
not participate as much after Monday's fourth straight new all-time high,
but other growth areas picked up some of the slack. SP500, DJ30 and the
midcap SP400 all slid laterally along the 10 day EMA unable to make any
upside breaks.

SP500 -6.43, -0.24%
NASDAQ 9.42, 0.13%
DJ30 -58.67, -0.24%
SP400 -0.24%
RUTX -0.08%
SOX 0.88%
NASDAQ 100 0.16%

VOLUME: NYSE -10%, NASDAQ -13%. Volume slid well below average ahead of a
3-day weekend. Not much surprise there and not much selling activity for the
downside other than in the oil sector.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -1.2:1, NASDAQ +1.1:1. More stagnant breadth in an
overall quiet market.

Friday saw more of the same for the week: not really going anywhere though
some leadership from some 'older' leadership groups such as chips and
software. Drugs are not bad at all.

On the other hand, oil stocks, after a fairly normal test of the prior nice
rally, gapped lower with several breaking the 50 day MA and others suffering
a hard landing at the 50 day.

Overall the week saw the indices again holding the range, some trying higher
but not really making breakouts, and all but RUTX still looking for that new
break higher. There are really solid patterns and stocks, some are trying
to move, e.g. software, and others such as drugs/healthcare are in very good
position. Some chip stocks as well are setting up. Large cap NASDAQ stocks
such as FAANG are much improved. Some important groups are set to lead. If
they do then other indices than RUTX will make breaks higher.

Trade: The market still performs to trade news. Friday the White House said
it could take a harder line given the NKorea summit was off. But NKorea
stated that a summit was "desperately needed" and that it would engage in
one "whenever, wherever." That prompted the President to say later in the
day that the sides were again talking.

This weekend the NKoreans are even more conciliatory, stating they would
agree to total nuclear disarmament, etc.

That sounds great, but of course, US/China tensions are spiking as US naval
vessels cruised 12 nautical miles from the disputed South China Sea island
and China sent out its ships in response. Nothing is easy trying to fix
years of acquiescence. Markets don't like it, and perhaps that is
undermining the attempts higher, but frankly, this is the Trump style and
China's response to the Trump style. Thus far, despite all of the
hand-wringing by the conventional wisdom pundits, it is yielding results.

As for the stock market, we still like the patterns in individual stocks and
the stock indices are not bad either. It is time for many to make their
moves -- you can only base laterally so long. Some did make moves the back
half of the week, including some chips, software, tech, drugs. NFLX as
well. We will see if those can continue upside this week as we let our
other positions work.


To view, click on the following links:

SOX broke from the two week lateral move, the first to really follow RUTX

RUTX tested Tuesday to frday, holding over the 10 day EMA after a series of
four consecutive new highs.

NASDAQ is holding at the top of its two week range, the consolidation of the
early May rally. If the big names can break higher after some positive
action this week, NASDAQ follows SOX clearing the highs in the range.

SP400: Higher recovery high Monday then a gap lower and finished the week
over the 10 day EMA in a lateral move. Same position as the large cap NYSE
indices and the pattern is upside positive with a break higher consolidating
and holding the upside with MACD leading higher.

SP500 shows the same pattern as SP400, working laterally in a relatively
narrow range after the break higher three weeks back.

DJ30 is very similar, holding over the 20 day EMA with a doji, unable to
hold the Monday break higher but looking quite good still.


Stats: -58.67 points (-0.24%) to close at 24753.09

Stats: +9.42 points (+0.13%) to close at 7433.85
Volume: 1.76B (-12.87%)

Up Volume: 936.61M (-163.39M)
Down Volume: 803.04M (-86.03M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.05 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.09 to 1

New Highs: 118 (+6)
New Lows: 40 (-7)

Stats: -6.43 points (-0.24%) to close at 2721.33
NYSE Volume: 719.4M (-10.19%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.17 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.01 to 1

New Highs: 76 (+10)
New Lows: 44 (-4)


VIX: 13.22; +0.69
VXN: 16.06; +0.24
VXO: 12.74; +2.21

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; +0.05

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls continued their recovery with another 2.5 to 3 point gain. Still well
off the highs. Bears held basically steady after a pair of big moves

Bulls: 49.1 versus 46.6

Bears: 19.2 versus 19.4

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.

Bulls: 49.1 versus 46.6
46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5
versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9
versus 54.4 versus 66.00 versus 64.7 versus 66.7 versus 64.4 versus 61.9
versus 64.1 versus 64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4
versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3
versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5
versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5
versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9
versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3
versus 55.8 versus 49.5

Bears: 19.2 versus 19.4
19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5
versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4
versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2
versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4
versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0
versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2


Bonds: 2.931% versus 2.992%

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.992%
versus 2.982% versus 3.063% versus 3.056% versus 3.06% versus 3.123% versus
3.096% versus 3.069% versus 2.997% versus 2.97% versus 2.966% versus 3.006%
versus 2.952% versus 2.948% versus 2.968% versus 2.954% versus 2.959% versus
2.975% versus 3.0245% versus 3.00% versus 2.962% versus 2.96% versus 2.914%
versus 2.867% versus 2.83% versus 2.829 versus 2.825% versus 2.781% versus
2.801% versus 2.805% versus 2.775% versus 2.812% versus 2.806% versus 2.781%
versus 2.739% versus 2.714% versus 2.781% versus 2.775% versus 2.854% versus
2.813% versus 2.814% versus 2.881% versus 2.90% versus 2.852%

EUR/USD: 1.17148 versus 1.17096. Euro recovers a bit of lost ground, but
it is just one day up versus the strong trend down the 10 day EMA.

Historical: 1.17096 versus 1.17022 versus 1.17826 versus 1.1786 versus
1.17714 versus 1.1802 versus 1.1811 versus 1.18272 versus 1.19358 versus
1.19411 versus 1.1913 versus 1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus
1.19619 versus 1.1983 versus 1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus
1.21291 versus 1.21788 versus 1.2163 versus 1.22232 versus 1.22094 versus
1.22876 versus 1.23464 versus 1.23748 versus 1.23712 versus 1.238532 versus
1.23313 versus 1.23299 versus 1.23720 versus 1.2359 versus 1.2311 versus
1.22812 versus 1.2247 versus 1.2285

USD/JPY: 109.385 versus 109.667. Dollar fell back below the 200 day SMA,
held the 50 day, and now we see if it can recover that level.

Historical: 109.667 versus 109.502 versus 110.833 versus 110.95 versus
110.76 versus 110.935 versus 110.376 versus 110.246 versus 109.693 versus
109.384 versus 109.40 versus 109.746 versus 109.038 versus 109.022 versus
109.08 versus 109.175 versus 109.628 versus 109.91 versus 109.354 versus
109.051 versus 109.28 versus 109.373 versus 108.894 versus 108.728 versus
107.645 versus 107.404 versus 107.409 versus 107.027 versus 107.010 versus
107.362 versus 107.267 versus 106.882 versus 106.873 versus 107.09 versus
107.16 versus 106.939 versus 107.11 versus 106.816 versus 106.797 versus
105.901 versus 106.286 versus 106.81 versus 105.397 versus 105.473 versus
104.789 versus 104.829 versus 105.892 versus 106.478 versus 105.945 versus

Oil: 67.88, -2.83. Now THAT is a drop. Oil fell to the 50 ay MA; hard.

Gold: 1303.70, -0.70. Rebounded up to the 200 day SMA to test that break
below the key level.

End part 1
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