* * * *
6/25/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Targets hit: None issued. DIA, CWEI hit targets but letting them both work
Entry alerts: AMZN
Trailing stops: CYBR; QRVO (took some gain off the table, left some on)
Stop alerts: EVEP; RHT; ROVI; WLL
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If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
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of the day of the week.
- The polls were wrong, the betting houses were wrong, the markets are
- 3.5% to 5.75% selloffs on US stock indices.
- Sharp reversals off Thursday sharp upside.
- Predictions of UK and EU doom are grossly exaggerated, but the economic
data for the rest of the world remains weak, US included.
- Durable Goods orders continue their trend lower.
- Leadership groups have decent sessions.
- Indices have some ground to give as the selling likely continues into next
- Will see how leadership holds up through next week's likely selling.
I am reminded of the TD Ameritrade commercial discussing predictable
patterns and then the marlin falls off the wall. 'There's no way of
predicting that' is the catch line.
There's no way of predicting that . . .
Was there no way of predicting the UK vote? Polls had it wrong. The
betting lines had it wrong. The politicians had it wrong. The experts had
it wrong. I felt that the British would be too 'civilized' to vote to leave
after a politician was killed over the matter. I was wrong as well. The
only people who seemed to get it right were the reporters in the UK who were
asking people how they were going to vote and they could not find anyone
voting to stay.
Perhaps the powers that be pulled out all the stops to try and stop the
anger rising to a majority desiring to leave. Reports Thursday of strange
bets on Brexit in the UK betting lines. The polls, just days before the
vote, showed the kind of margin the final vote showed. Yet they skewed away
from what the true outcome showed in the last couple of days. Trying to
influence the outcome?
As with the Clinton emails that have disappeared, we will never know will
we? The outcome, if that was the case, is sweet justice indeed.
So, the world markets were caught with their pants around their ankles.
Stock markets, currency markets, bond markets were bombed around the globe.
The marlin fell.
Now all that is left is the blame game, the round and round on the financial
stations arguing about what to do. Damn those Brits, right? You just
cannot trust the man on the street to do the right thing to protect his
elites and their elite asses -- assets.
Guest after guest after expert after expert squealed 'we have never been
here before!' As I said in the Last Hour alert, sure we have. It is called
panic, panic by those who should know better, who have been in these
situations before, but refuse to see the facts. So, they make statements
about 'never been here before' to cover their failure to adequately
structure their portfolios. They are in stocks that got slaughtered instead
of the leaders that held up well. They didn't have any downside plays on to
at least hedge the downside and protect the upside. I glanced at several
option accounts near the close and noted they were higher on the day or at
least flat. That is a pretty well hedged/diversified account considering
the indices lost 3.5% to 5.75%.
SP500 -75.91, -3.59%
NASDAQ -202.06, -4.12%
DJ30 -610.32, -3.39%
VOLUME: NYSE 193%, NASDAQ 115%. Big scare, Russell rebalance, lots of
A/D: NYSE -5.2:1, NASDAQ -5.2:1. Pretty even burn across the board.
Long before the opening bell it was clear US stocks were gapping lower.
They did. They then tried a quick snapback. As we warned in the pre-market
alert, this likely would not be a one-session event. Sure enough that early
rebound attempt failed. Stocks were not slamming back and forth, they were
just crawling around with a piano on their backs. They sank from that first
half hour bounce off the downside gap, moving back to session lows by the
last hour. A bounce in that hour took back some lost ground but in the last
5 minutes faded again.
Stocks just were not, as a whole, going up for the session. And likely,
this leads to more downside this coming week as the market tries to
reconcile what has happened and perhaps realizes this is not the end of the
world. The fifth largest economy in the world decided it was going to rule
itself again. It has a trade deficit with every one of the other EU
nations. Those nations will scramble as fast as they can to ink trade deals
with the UK because the UK is such a good customer. And will the US turn a
cold shoulder to the UK as our President suggested when he visited the UK a
few weeks back? Of course not. That was all part of protecting the status
quo, protecting those in charge. New day, baby.
So, you get some more downside, everyone realizes that, lo, the UK is still
there, that it didn't just self immolate. Then stocks try and rebound.
IF . . . the US market is still moving up. Remember, THAT was the big
question surrounding the market already without the Brexit issue. The
indices were on a recovery move ever since the February low and were
starting to bump into the last range from the summer 2015 that held the
all-time highs. They were getting to the point where they either going to
break higher or roll over.
Some of the big names in NASDAQ that had led the move fell onto harder
times, e.g. SBUX, AAPL, FB, even GOOG. At the same time some stocks that
had suffered long declines were moving up and providing leadership, e.g. oil
stocks. Indeed, many of these held up fine even on Friday.
Big names struggling, others working well, rising off the lows. With money
moving into new areas as it left others, the stock market found support to
continue the climb into the range of those prior highs.
If that rotation continues into the stocks formerly sold off, the upside can
remain, and thus once the turmoil from accepting the fact of Brexit that
would present a buying opportunity.
If this blast lower represents the event that breaks the upside's will, then
there is a whole lot of downside ahead.
Of course the Fed is always there and can rush the market's aid with more
stimulus of some sort. Indeed, the Fed Funds Futures show a greater
probability of rate CUTS than rate hikes in 2017, with traders buying
positions indicating NIRP is coming. Fed intervention on the stimulus side
could stem any selling tide, but there are some smart people out there who
posit the Fed and other central banks really have no resources left to
really help the stock markets. They did in February, however, with the help
of the BOE and ECB directly intervening into stock markets. I dare say that
we see similar telephone calls and resultant interventions if this Friday
selloff continues with earnest.
What does that mean for us? We continue looking for those stocks that are
holding up in their patterns despite the market weakness. Those that do are
the ones we move into if the selling subsides next week and the buyers
return. We have quite a bit of cash right now, indeed some accounts are
close to 100% cash, that we want to allocate (school accounts, etc.). We
will be watching to see if the washout reverses and leadership is there to
lead. If so, we can go back in with those accounts as well as others. If
not, we continue to pick up the downside positions as they set up and show
their moves similar to what we are doing with AAPL, DIA, FB, and on Friday,
All the talk was about Brexit. We have heard it, discussed it, and now the
market has to deal with it. It will. The pundits are describing disaster
for Britain's economy. They can only see in the rearview mirror. They fail
to see what this does for the future, the potential for the UK versus being
stymied in the EU with its regulations. As noted before, each EU country
will rush to ink deals with the UK in order to keep the sale of their goods
flowing to the Brits.
What about the future? Those who only see disaster just don't understand
how a liberated, free economy can grow and produce. They are the same who
groused about the American Revolution, the loyalists who didn't have the
foresight to see what freedom could bring for all of them. Stuck in the
past with blinders on. They deserve the EU and its suffocating
Durable Goods Orders, May: -2.2% versus -0.6% expected versus 3.3% prior
Ex-Defense: -0.9%. Lots of defense spending trying to prop things up.
Non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft (business investment): -0.7%, well
This is the longest run of downward trending durables orders in US history
outside of an textbook recession. I say 'textbook' because much of the
country has been in recession for years while the largest corporations
enjoyed the benefits of free money, protected markets, and basic good old
government cronyism. The socialists like to call it capitalistic cronyism,
but there is nothing capitalist about it: it is the government that set up
this playing field with the TARP, stimulus, bailouts, multitudes of new
taxes, and hundreds of thousands of new regulations strangling small
businesses. That is socialism, i.e. the government chooses who to allocate
resources and preferences to. Nothing capitalistic about that at all.
In any event, Keynesian theories are not working. Again. They never work.
They just neatly fit into the current mindset that government knows best and
are thus trumpeted by those in power and their enablers. I heard Austan
Goolsby on Fox Business today saying that the Brits threw a temper tantrum.
He belittled their fight for their country by comparing it to a child's
inability to control his feelings. That is the kind of outright denial and
unwillingness to look at the facts that you have to deal with.
No index chart looked great after Friday as they slammed lower when they
were just on the cusp of moving to the prior rally highs or indeed after
breaking to a new recovery high in terms of SOX. Those kind of reversals
are the harshest and in many cases, the most damaging. We will see how the
indices can hang on next week with the help of those leading groups that
held up pretty well even with the Friday selloff. This is either just an
upset in the move higher or it could be the start of a bigger selloff that
the large 21 month top since October 2014.
SOX: Gapped and rallied to a higher recovery high Thursday but then gapped
lower, indeed gapping below the recent pullback low. Sold down to the 50
day SMA on the close after trying to rebound, filling half the gap, but then
reversing to close at the session low. These are the ugliest of reversals:
a move to a higher high wholly rejected.
SP400: The midcaps closed in on the early June high on Thursday then Friday
were ripped lower, closing below the 50 day EMA as well as last week's
pullback low. It can recover, the pattern is not wholly broken, but it is
going to need to hold in this general area to keep the pattern in an overall
uptrend. It can test some more this coming week and find its footing and be
just fine. Will have to show it.
RUTX: Gapped lower and sold through the 50 day MA's and last week's
pullback test low. Still over the 200 day SMA by 10 points, and as with
SP400, can test a bit lower, hold that support, and still continue an upside
NASDAQ: Nasty gap to the May lows. An intraday rebound took NASDAQ back
close to the 200 day SMA, but it failed and rolled back down to close at
those May lows. NASDAQ was trying to recover its pattern and mount a move
off the 200 day SMA, a move it started Thursday. Friday somewhat dumped on
SP500: Gapped lower and bombed down to the May lows. Similar to RUTX,
SP500 is holding over the 200 day SMA about 35 points lower. This two month
range is looking a LOT like the November through December 2 month range that
collapsed into the January/February selloff.
DJ30: Very similar to SP500, crashing lower to the May lows and holding 150
points over the 200 day SMA. This April to June range looks remarkably
similar to the November/December range that led to the January bomb lower.
Big Names: A late bounce actually helped some of these patterns. FB gapped
lower but managed to work off the low. AAPL gapped lower and managed a
small move off that sharp gap. AMZN gapped lower, rebounded, then folded.
It moved up late and we picked up some downside positions for a move to fill
those gaps. SBUX dropped to a lower selloff low. GOOG gapped sharply
lower, closing where it opened, just above the February lows. The big names
don't look all that good.
Oil: Not a wondrous session, but they showed some holds in their patterns.
ATW, gapped lower but showed low volume as it holds its pattern. ORIG sold
to the 20 day EMA but is easily holding its trend. UNT faded to the 10 day
EMA. SPN gapped lower to the 20 day EMA, showing a doji. Selling yes, but
mostly holding their patterns and trends.
Construction: GRAM held easily at the 50 day SMA. MDR gapped to a doji at
the 20 day EMA, still in the trend up the 50 day EMA.
Software: Some issues. CYBR gapped to a doji below the 10 day EMA; we
closed it to preserve some gain and let it set up again. ROI sold below the
50 day MA's. RHT Fell through the 200 day SMA.
Retail: Retail leaders held up quite well, e.g. KORS, WWW, ULTA, DLTR.
Industrial: CAT fell through the 50 day MA's and the June pullback low. DE
gapped through the 50 day MA's. HON, UTX gapped below the 50 day MA's.
Metals: AKS sold to the 50 day MA's and held. SID slipped to the 20 day
EMA on lighter trade. FCX gapped lower and closed below the 50 day EMA.
CENX sold back to the lows in the double bottom. TX broke below the 50 day
Chips: Some leaders are holding fine, e.g. AMD, testing its recent move,
holding the trend. MU is testing the 200 day SMA after surging through it.
Others struggling. SLAB gapped below the 50 day MA. AVGO ditto. QRVO sold
to the 20 day EMA, showing very tame action. We took part of the gain on off
the table, leaving some on, preserving some upside while we see if a good
pattern can hold the line. NVDA, a major chip leader, gapped below the 20
day EMA; after a long run NVDA may be ready to trade downside.
Biotech/Drug: Usually slaughtered in uncertainty, but some of the recent
leaders are not doing bad. XLRN is still in a very nice 50 day MA/200 day
MA test. GALE is a bit volatile but not doing poorly. EXAS looks super,
moving higher. SUPN still looks good to move higher. KITE was steady,
holding the line at the 50 day EMA in the range of the past two weeks. Some
possible life here.
Stats: -202.06 points (-4.12%) to close at 4707.98
Volume: 3.628B (+114.98%)
Up Volume: 454.14M (-1.016B)
Down Volume: 3.79B (+3.534B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 5.15 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.52 to 1
New Highs: 44 (-52)
New Lows: 125 (+92)
Stats: -76.02 points (-3.6%) to close at 2037.3
NYSE Volume: 2.5B (+193.46%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 5.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.93 to 1
New Highs: 138 (-27)
New Lows: 48 (+38)
Stats: -611.21 points (-3.39%) to close at 17399.86
VIX: 25.76; +8.51
VXN: 24.88; +6.67
VXO: 23.27; +7.35
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.24; -0.04
8 of 9 over 1.0. Another session of a lot of put activity.
11 of the last 21 below 1.0. 28 of 41 over 1.0. Still a LOT of skepticism.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls rebounded back to the 47 level of three weeks back.
Bears faded, a bit, but still at 23 and change.
Bulls: 47.5 versus 45.9
Bears: 23.2 versus 23.5
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus
40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3%
versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus
26.5% versus 24.7% 34.0% versus 29.2% versus 26.8% versus 28.6% versus 34.7%
versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4%
23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6%
versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9%
versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus
39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1% versus 35.7%
versus 31.6% versus 29.6%
Bonds (10 year): 1.57% versus 1.74%. Able to leap week of selling in a
single bound. TLT gapped off the 50 day EMA test found over five sessions,
closing just below the recent higher highs.
Historical: 1.74% versus 1.68% versus 1.70% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus
1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.62% versus 1.61% versus 1.64% versus 1.68%
versus 1.70% versus 1.72% versus 1.73% versus 1.70% versus 1.80% versus
1.84% versus 1.85% versus 1.85% versus 1.83% versus 1.87% versus 1.86%
versus 1.83% versus 1.85% versus 1.85% versus 1.85% versus 1.76%
EUR/USD: 1.1101 versus 1.14070. After the overnight surge, the overnight
purge. EUR did bounce off the gap below the 200 day SMA and held the 200
Historical: 1.14070 versus 1.13324 versus 1.1251 versus 1.13131 versus
1.13749 versus 1.12778 versus 1.12554 versus 1.12731 versus 1.2104 versus
1.1297 versus 1.12526 versus 1.13149 versus 1.1412 versus 1.13570
USD/JPY: 102.32 versus 106.73. Similar to the euro, after plunging
overnight the dollar bounced. Some. It hit that 100 level and indeed below
it. Did the BOJ intervene at 100? We will look at the numbers and see if we
can find the scent of a BOJ move.
Historical: 106.73 versus 104.87 versus 104.788 versus 103.98 versus 104.58
versus 104.12 versus 104.68 versus 105.62 versus 106.085 versus 106.019
versus 106.933 versus 106.966 versus 106.66 versus 107.347 versus 107.72
versus 106.55 versus 106.66 versus 108.86 versus 109.99 versus 111.285
versus 110.233 versus 109.70 versus 109.72 versus 109.99 versus 109.25
versus 110.165 versus 109.985 versus 110.187
Oil: 47.57, -2.54. Oil flopped, but it held the 50 day MA's. That holds
the trend and we will see if oil holds this trend. Important to do so for
the market as oil stocks are one of the staunchest leadership groups.
Gold: 1319.10, +56.00. Broke to a higher recovery high. Closed off the
high but holding the break to that high.
A full week next week ahead of the Independence Day (US) shortened following
week. This gives the market plenty of time to absorb, digest, come to grips
with the Brexit result and the subsequent market moves.
The Friday move was likely not the bottom. Stocks tried to rally early,
failed, closed very near session lows. On a Friday that is not a bottom
There are some massive quant positions that will be unwound over the start
of next week and those have to move through the system. Also, with the head
fake upside then sharp reversal, there will be margin calls that have to be
met. That will add to the downside pressure.
So, where is the bottom? Where does the bell ring? We will have to see.
There is no 'x' marks the spot. There are points to look for, but until the
indices show reversal action along with some quality stocks in quality
patterns in position to move, the bottom remains, as the New Mexico state
trooper said in the sequel 'Vacation,' an idea.
'This border represents an idea, that's all that I'm saying.'
So, we watch the action in the indices as well as the groups that have led:
oil, chips, industrial, heavy construction, leading retail. How they hold
tells a lot. Also watch for possible new leadership emerging out of the
ashes of other sectors that crashed. That is how this market has rallied
off the lows and made it close to the 2015 highs.
If the current leaders fail and no others emerge to take their place, that
is bad for the upside. If that is the case we remain light on the upside
and play more downside. If this is the case, this is more of the scenario
that the market has tried for higher highs and failed, and this could be the
final hurray of the 21 month market top, leading to a major market
revaluation (aka major selloff/bear market).
For now we are closely watching the leadership groups and how they test,
looking at them for possible entry points. SP500, RUTX are over their 200
day SMA, SP400 well over its 200 day. SOX is at the 50 day SMA. They have
some room to test, some room to give into support as the week progresses.
As they do, we can play some downside and watch how the leadership groups
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 4707.98
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4815 is the December 2014 peak
The 200 day SMA at 4820
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4999 is the October upper gap point
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4425 is the late February intraday low
4363 is the February upper gap point
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
4212 is the February intraday low
S&P 500: Closed at 2037.41
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 50 day EMA at 2073
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2094 is the December 2014 high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
The 200 day SMA at 2021
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1947 is the February 2016 intraday high, the late February peak
1940 is the January 2016 recovery bounce peak closing high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1891 is last week's intraday low prior to the miraculous reversal.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
1859 is the January 2016 closing low
1820 is the October 2014 intraday low
1815 is the April 2014 low
1812 is the January 2016 intraday low
1772 are the Q4 2013 highs and lows
Dow: Closed at 17,400.75
The 50 day EMA at 17,703
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 17,235
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to
a head and shoulders pattern
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,621 is the late February 2016 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,526 is the early January resistance
16,511 is the January 2016 intraday high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,466 is the January 2016 recovery closing peak.
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
15,855 is the October 2014 intraday low
15,766 is the January closing low
15,666 is the August 2015 closing low
15,450 is the January 2016 intraday low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
15,370 is the August 2015 low
June 24 - Friday
Durable Orders, May (8:30): -2.2% actual versus -0.6% expected, 3.3% prior
(revised from 3.4%)
Durable Orders, ex-t, May (8:30): -0.3% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.5%
prior (revised from 0.4%)
Michigan Sentiment - Final, June (10:00): 93.5 actual versus 94.0 expected,
94.3 prior (no revisions)
June 27 - Monday
International Trade , May (8:30): -$59.2B expected, -$57.5B prior
June 28 - Tuesday
GDP - Third Estimate, Q1 (8:30): 1.0% expected, 0.8% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q1 (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior
Case-Shiller 20-city, April (9:00): 5.5% expected, 5.4% prior
Consumer Confidence, June (10:00): 93.1 expected, 92.6 prior
June 29 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 06/25 (7:00): 2.9% prior
Personal Income, May (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Personal Spending, May (8:30): 0.3% expected, 1.0% prior
Core PCE Price Index, May (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Pending Home Sales, May (10:00): -1.4% expected, 5.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 06/25 (10:30): -0.917M prior
June 30 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 06/25 (8:30): 265K expected, 259K prior
Continuing Claims, 06/18 (8:30): 2142K prior
Chicago PMI, June (9:45): 50.8 expected, 49.3 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 06/25 (10:30): 62 bcf prior
July 1 - Friday
ISM Index, June (10:00): 51.4 expected, 51.3 prior
Construction Spending, May (10:00): 0.5% expected, -1.8% prior
Auto Sales, June (14:00): 5.16M prior
Truck Sales, June (14:00): 8.55M prior
End part 1 of 3
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