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3/12/2016 Investment House Daily
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Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: SWKS; THC
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: GOOG; MYL
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If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
- A day later and stocks show a Mario the Magnificent rally.
- The rally built on false stories, silent anti-plunge intervention, and now
overt Central Bank intervention, hits its fourth week with a new breakout.
- Money still rotating into the silent majority bear market stocks.
- Investor and trader dilemma: new breakout, money rotating, still good
patterns to play, BUT four weeks up, at resistance, overall market top still
in place, economy is still weakening despite best attempts to frame it
Friday investors decided they liked what Mario and his money printers
announced Thursday. Stocks gapped higher and never took one look over the
shoulder. New breakouts after a short test on all US indices as the rally
about nothing hit four weeks upside. Sharply upside.
SP500 32.62, 1.64%
NASDAQ 86.31, 1.85%
DJ30 218.18, 1.28%
VOLUME: NYSE -4.5%, NASDAQ -5.7%. Lower trade on a new rally high. NASDAQ
showing 1 above average volume session in 18. DJ30 is still looking for its
first above average volume session in 16. Not the strongest move and you
can understand the skeptics given the overall market picture, i.e. still a
15 month top firmly in place.
A/D: NYSE 5:1, NASDAQ 3.7:1. Powerful breadth on the move even if no
volume. That is this market's MO: lots of stocks moving higher, just not a
ton of buyers. BUT, lots more buyers than sellers of late.
This move started four weeks back on a UAE claim that OPEC had agreed to a
production cut. Flimsy and unconfirmed, the story nonetheless stopped
another market rollover in progress and bounced stock and oil prices for the
following week. Over the next three weeks, several sessions appeared to be
a repeat of the rollover session, but again with each ugly selloff the
market received a helping hand. The BOJ would intervene on the yen. The
PBOC would adjust its yuan peg. A Fed governor would go dovish. Another
OPEC member would claim another meeting and cut was ahead, even as the
initial production cut report devolved into a production freeze that key
At the time, we posited that the move would not last (wrong), but after a
second rollover attempt was stymied in its tracks by sudden sovereign
buying, I noted that if the move could extend laterally and consolidate,
bottoming patterns could be build that would help propel the market higher.
This even as the prior market leaders continued to struggle and sell. Why?
Because if money was leaving those leaders but not leaving the market,
stocks already beaten down in their own bear markets as those leaders led
the final rally's charge could enjoy their own runs, using the small bases
formed to propel them.
Retail, industrial machinery, industrials in general turned and rallied.
Metals and materials followed. Now financials and energy have done the same
while drugs/biotechs, Chinese stocks, telecom and others try the same. More
than that, some stocks didn't even base, just turned and rallied straight
All of this was enough to maintain the market levitation ahead of the main
events of the March ECB and FOMC policy meetings. Expectations were high
for Mario the artful dodger Draghi, and that set the stage for
disappointment. But, Draghi the Dodger became Draghi the Deliverer as he
and the ECB backed up the truck to the markets and unloaded a plethora of
market inspiring devices. Sure it took a day for the market to pinch itself
and decide it was real, but on Friday the US stock indices broke out to
higher recovery highs after a few sessions of stumbling. Even a Friday
story that totally confirmed Nigeria's story of a March OPEC/NOPEC meeting
was utter fabrication did not hurt the stock advance. Once again, when it
looked as if some key areas could break, they did not.
Thus the stock rally built on a rank and obviously manufactured rumor of
phantom OPEC meetings has lasted not a week, not two weeks, but a whole
month. It has brought DJ30 back up to the bottom of the late December 2015
series of three tops. It has SP500 at 2020 and the 200 day SMA, right at a
next level of resistance many consider key. Yes, another one.
Despite the move that has more than outdone any expectations (certainly on
our part), it has not changed the overall market character. Yes it
converted a selloff that was on the verge of becoming a major crash into a
mother of all short squeezes. It did so with the obvious hand and
coordination of central banks, OPEC, and who knows who and/or what else.
It has not, however, alleviated the market's negative overall condition.
The 15 month top post-QE is still in place. The US economy, despite what
you hear from the headline manipulators in our government and the compliant
headline readers on the news services, is overall trending lower. Yes Q1
2016 will show a bump in activity, but the trend remains in place. The
policies in place have hollowed out the economy, and while there are short
bursts of more activity, the economy that has bumped along for years similar
to the 1970's is now stalling out. Jim Rodgers says there is a 100% chance
of US recession this year. The data is not good.
Okay, so the prognosis is not great bigger picture. Here is the rub. You
knew it was coming.
In looking at stocks, LOTS of stocks, they are not suggesting this move is
over. The late 2015 recovery in stocks off the summer selling was led by
the Big Names. Most of the stock market had already sold off, was already
down 20% or more as most stocks suffered their own bear markets.
That leaves the dilemma an investor and trader is always put in at certain
times in the market. The move is overdone. The overall market pattern and
economic picture do not support a breakout to new highs. YET, there are
many, many stock patterns that not only are the kind that show accumulation,
but are ready to breakout, or have broken out but are nowhere near peaking
their run. This after four weeks of straight up, 10+% gains on the major
And there is the dilemma: the macro picture is not conducive to a lot more
upside as the indices bump into the bottoms of the hold highs, and the short
term market condition in terms of the indices is really overbought.
Further, the Fed is highly unlikely to change its current hiking stance
given the ECB's kitchen sink actions, the economic headlines it tells the
public it uses in its policy decisions, and yes the stock market action
itself that has provided the Fed all the cover it needs.
Yet, more patterns are in good shape to move higher and are indeed in the
process of making new breaks higher, either initial breakouts from bottoming
patterns or new rallies after testing that initial breakout (e.g. AKS, WLL).
These are very solid patterns showing money rotation and accumulation, e.g.
double bottoms, inverted head and shoulders for the longer patterns, and
cups with handles. As noted the past week, money is not wholesale leaving
the market and thus setting up a massive failure when this rally fizzles. A
lot of it is being diverted to these other stocks already beaten way, way
down. This gives this move the unexpected life AFTER the silent hands of
the world central banks and OPEC lies regarding production cut meetings
staved off a massive world market crash.
So, the question for us is, after four weeks of straight upside in a fairly
obvious short squeeze, there is nonetheless real and sustained buying in
several areas. Despite our belief the market bounce would fail earlier than
it did, it did not, and we have suffered with some downside plays. At the
same time we have made great money on KORS, QRVO, VRSN, AKS, WLL, FCX, FEYE,
CX, CENX -- most in areas that showed the bottoming action, set up good
patterns and broke higher in textbook fashion.
We still see a lot of these plays setting up either for initial runs or
after testing that first break higher. At the same time, the number of
really good downside plays, despite the run, is not that great. Yes there
are stocks that ran higher the past four weeks, but they don't look to be
imminently rolling over. Even the big names that continue to struggle, e.g.
AMZN, NFLX, GOOG (even though it gapped and rallied Friday), SBUX, are not
So, do you continue moving in on the upside even after a four week rally
straight off the bottom when DJ30 is bumping key resistance that includes
the bottoms of the last trading range before the January plunge? Or,
despite the good looking patterns, are you moving in just to see the big
money players pull the plug and scuttle the move for all stocks? If you
have been at this any time at all you know that a rally often looks good
right up until it does not, i.e. good plays keep setting up and are ready to
move higher long after the initial leaders have made their moves. They were
ready to go, it is just that the money was no longer ready to buy them.
On top of that this week is the FOMC meeting, the likely culmination of the
series of central bank events and silent hands feeding the market rally.
The Fed is forced by these events to hold to its rate hiking course it so
carefully laid out and began JUST AS the stock market finished its big top
and crashed. Even if the Fed is compliant with the rest of the central
banks, just how much more good news can this rally absorb with higher and
What we are going to do. Keep looking at the solid upside patterns for
opportunity, but not going too deep four weeks into the rally. There are
good financials, drugs/healthcare, Chinese stocks, chips, energy -- many
areas -- that sport excellent patterns. We have upside positions already
and we can add new positions as they show the moves, but it is a fact the
move is four weeks old, straight up, bumping into resistance, and has been
helped by fabricated stories, silent central bank intervention and highly
publicized central bank intervention (after the silent work kept the markets
propped up). If the plug gets pulled and the market makes a sharp downside
kick, we need to be ready to jump ship quickly and not look back or second
guess. So, we are going to buy good patterns but know the move is getting
stretched. Take logical gains, lighten up by so doing, and not expect the
move to continue just because things look good near term.
That is the life of investing and trading in world markets where the central
banks are desperately trying to hold the stimulus induced financial market
rallies of the past 7 years together. My word, after 7 years of recovery,
if you were dropped in from any other time in US history, you would be very
confident the Fed was NOT acting at all, that rates would be normalized,
that the Fed's balance sheet would be show at worst nominal debt. Instead
the rates are effectively below 0%, the Fed just started acting, its balance
sheet is in the trillions, and the Fed is still extremely hesitant to act.
We are in a whole new world where central banks have usurped power from many
areas, and I am not sure if I will see this change in my lifetime, and I
plan on living another 50+ years.
DJ30: Broke through the 200 day SMA Friday on rising but still below
average volume. That puts the Dow at the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the
selloff from the late December lower high as well as at the lows form
November and December 2015. Very key levels, but those levels have not
stopped the move yet. Indeed, Friday was a breakout after a three day flag
test of the last leg higher. Okay, that is well and good, but always,
always watch for a false move when this occurs. Four weeks straight up, the
last three weeks of the move (out of four) on below average volume. Nothing
has stopped the move thus far but the setup is one that could do that.
Cannot discount it.
SP500: Gapped out of a three day flag test of its own, moving just past the
200 day SMA on the close. SP500 is also at the November and December 2015
range lows, also at the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from that
November/December 2015 range. Broke out as well but on lower, below average
volume Friday, lower than the consolidation volume. Still moving higher but
as with the Dow, it is in a scenario that you have to at least be cognizant.
NASDAQ: Gapped and rallied to the prior Friday's intraday high. New closing
high on the rally, putting NASDAQ just inside the last gap lower from the
12/30 to 1/7 series of downside gaps. Meaning? NASDAQ is just now getting
to the business of filling those gaps, and there are 300+ points of gaps in
that series. Friday renewed the rally from an inverted head and shoulders
breakout from the start of March. Heading higher, but still below average
volume on all but one session in the past 17 sessions. Friday's breakout was
on very low trade.
RUTX: Surged to end the week following a sharp Tuesday selloff that turned
into a routine 10 day EMA test. Still at the September 2015 low, still at
the 61% Fibonacci Retracement, but a nice test and moving higher on a MACD
breakout. After leading the downside, small caps are trying to lead upside
but have a lot of catching up to do.
SOX: Gapped to a higher recovery high Friday, moving well into the second
gap lower from late December. Huge move, getting bigger as SOX is well into
the October to December trading range, about one-third in.
SP400: Higher recovery high after a three session test of the surge. SP400
is halfway into the late August through December range. The 200 day SMA is
about 15 points higher.
Many of the same groups and some new ones are setting up those bottoming
patterns and surging.
China: Newly returned. SINA surged on earnings. WUBA surged through the
200 day SMA Friday, breaking from a 7 week inverted head and shoulders.
VIPS is attempting a bottom. ATHMA and BITA made an initial move and are
testing. BIDU looks really solid.
Financial: Still looking good with classic patterns. JPM is still forming
the cup with handle. TCBI ditto, starting to break higher. BAC sports an
inverted head and shoulders.
Metals: AKS started breaking higher again Thursday though rested Friday.
FCX ditto. ZEUS, TX, etc. all show the same action.
Energy: OII surging through the 50 day MA's. WLL gapped to a higher
recovery high. CVX capped a good week, gapping to a doji. HAL gapped off a
3 day test to the 10 day EMA. Still solid recoveries ongoing.
Tech: VASD has put in an inverted head and shoulders bottoming pattern.
FEYE looks ready to move higher once more. QRVO moving up off a 10 day EMA
test after a strong move higher. FFIV has a nice lateral consolidation in
place after moving off the low.
Drugs/Biotech: AGEN bouncing on strong trade. BMRN looking ready to move.
Stats: +86.31 points (+1.85%) to close at 4748.47
Volume: 1.78B (-5.67%)
Up Volume: 1.5B (+765.78M)
Down Volume: 277.58M (-892.42M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.7 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.82 to 1
New Highs: 43 (+12)
New Lows: 23 (-23)
Stats: +32.62 points (+1.64%) to close at 2022.19
NYSE Volume: 974M (-4.42%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 5.01 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.35 to 1
New Highs: 77 (+7)
New Lows: 10 (-7)
Stats: +218.18 points (+1.28%) to close at 17213.31
VIX: 16.5; -1.55
VXN: 19.65; -1.84
VXO: 17.26; -2.1
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.01; +0.02. Over 1.0 on a surge as short
positions were closed.
Recent history: 8 of 18 sessions over 1.0.
16 of 26 sessions below 1.0, 28 of the last 50 sessions above 1.0.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls recovered a bit of ground after falling the prior
week from over 30. Bears remain very skeptical with their numbers rising
despite a market bounce. Still in a crossover position. This indicator is
strongly suggesting a bounce, but this is not a timing indicator.
Bulls: 39.4 versus 36.4. Second week back over 35%
Bears: 35.4 versus 34.3. Surprisingly moved back over 35 on a market
upside week. Apparently the bears believe the move is topping out.
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5% versus 24.7% 34.0% versus 29.2% versus 26.8%
versus 28.6% versus 34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus
41.2% versus 45.4%
Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in late 2015 and 2016 since the
2008 and 2009 market plummet.
34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4%
versus 36.1% versus 35.7% versus 31.6% versus 29.6% versus 29.6% versus
27.6% versus 26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2%
versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus
26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus
Background: Finally back below 35% after spiking to 39.8 three weeks back.
Bonds (10 year): 1.979% versus 1.927%. The back and forth flopping stopped
Friday as bonds broke lower and yields jumped as the ECB's actions appear to
cement the Fed continuing its rate hiking. TLT broke below the 50 day MA's.
Historical: 1.927% versus 1.88% versus 1.82% versus 1.91% versus 1.88%
versus 1.83% versus 1.84% versus 1.82% versus 1.74% versus 1.757% versus
1.70% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.76% versus 1.75% versus 1.74%
versus 1.81% versus 1.78% versus 1.75% versus 1.64% versus 1.69% versus
1.73% versus 1.76% versus 1.85% versus 1.85% versus 1.88% versus 1.86%
versus 1.96% versus 1.93% versus 1.99% versus 2.019%
EUR/USD: 1.1149 versus 1.1180.
Historical: 1.1106 versus 1.1107 versus 1.1017 versus 1.0999 versus 1.0961
versus 1.0865 versus 1.0866 versus 1.0880 versus 1.0940 versus 1.102 versus
1.1016 versus 1.1039 versus 1.1130 versus 1.1103 versus 1.1124 versus 1.1275
versus 1.1154 versus 1.1249 versus 1.1322 versus 1.1293 versus 1.1294 versus
1.1197 versus 1.1159 versus 1.1206 versus 1.1110 versus 1.0916
USD/JPY: 113.78 versus 113.15
Historical: 113.15 versus 113.396 versus 112.58 versus 112.965 versus
113.795 versus 113.70 versus 113.45 versus 113.896 versus 112.76 versus
113.965 versus 112.90 versus 112.11 versus 112.435 versus 112.65 versus
113.25 versus 114.04 versus 114.33 versus 114.747 versus 113.29 versus
112.39 versus 113.36 versus 115.085
Oil: 38.50, +0.58. Still trending higher ahead of the 10 day EMA, filling
the gap from early December.
Gold: 1259.40, -13.70. Surged to a higher high then reversed. Held the 10
day EMA but getting very volatile with back and forth moves each session.
Volatility typically spells trouble for a trend. With the Fed set to stay on
its hiking bias, gold loses some of its luster. It has not, however, broken
its uptrend and is holding over the 10 day EMA. That is a pretty strong
trend, but again, watch the volatility.
ECB is in the bag and now the FOMC meets to tell the world on Wednesday
afternoon that while it is a bit cautious given inflation expectations and
the rest of the world, it still sees risks fading for the US. It will have
more data to use, e.g. retail sales than will be adjusted positive similar
to how January was adjusted from a loss of billions to a gain of millions.
PPI, New York Fed, CPI, Industrial Production, Capacity, even oil
inventories are all out before the FOMC decision. It won't be data poor,
that is for sure.
The stock indices broke higher Friday, moving to higher recovery highs.
First, as noted before, be a bit wary of a low volume breakout on a Friday
in the fourth week of a short covering move. With some indices at key
resistance, it is worth noting so if the unlikely occurs and it reverses, we
are aware of what just happened.
Second, almost three days ahead of the Fed gives some time to get into some
upside as some areas have been ripping off big moves, and frankly all areas
that have set up those bottoming patterns are producing big moves when they
finally start upside. So, we can look at more of those for some upside.
Will it hold post-FOMC? We expect the Fed to stay its course, to still
commit to rate hikes versus anything else, but it may not give a time for
the next hike and the vast majority think it won't put in its second one on
Wednesday. Perhaps that keeps the market going as perhaps that was all
factored in on Friday's rally after a lukewarm reception to the ECB on
At this juncture we will still pursue upside positions on solid stocks that
can make us money in fairly decent timeframes. You know what we are talking
about, e.g. WLL, AKC, FCX. But there is also FEYE, OII, MRO, BIDU -- plenty
of stocks are setup quite nicely. This move may be based on a bunch of
fabrications and silent hand assists, but it has survived, and as noted last
weekend, STILL nothing is standing in its way in terms of sellers. Until
they show up with vigor, we look to play some sensible, rational upside that
the market is presenting. Oh, and we still think selling will show up with
some vigor, but the fat lady has not yet sung on this rally.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 4748.47
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4815 is the December 2014 peak
The March 2015 lows at 4843 and 4825
The 200 day SMA at 4880
4902 is the July 2015 low
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4999 is the October upper gap point
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
4736 is the early January lower gap point downside, the last downside gap in
The 50 day EMA at 4640
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4425 is the late February intraday low
4363 is the February upper gap point
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
4212 is the February intraday low
4116 is the October 2014 low
S&P 500: Closed at 2022.19
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 2020. Okay, broke it but not definitively.
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
The 10 day EMA at 1985
1972 is the December 2014 low
The 50 day EMA at 1956
1947 is the February 2016 intraday high, the late February peak
1940 is the January 2016 recovery bounce peak closing high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1891 is last week's intraday low prior to the miraculous reversal.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
1859 is the January 2016 closing low
1820 is the October 2014 intraday low
1815 is the April 2014 low
1812 is the January 2016 intraday low
1772 are the Q4 2013 highs and lows
Dow: Closed at 17,213.31
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
June 2015 low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month
The March low at 17,786
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,153
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to
a head and shoulders pattern
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
The 50 day EMA at 16,691
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,621 is the late February 2016 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,526 is the early January resistance
16,511 is the January 2016 intraday high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,466 is the January 2016 recovery closing peak.
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
15,855 is the October 2014 intraday low
15,766 is the January closing low
15,666 is the August 2015 closing low
15,450 is the January 2016 intraday low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
15,370 is the August 2015 low
March 15 - Tuesday
Retail Sales, February (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, February (8:30): -0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
PPI, February (8:30): -0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Empire Manufacturing, March (8:30): -9.5 expected, -16.6 prior
Business Inventories, January (10:00): 0.0% expected, 0.1% prior
NAHB Housing Market , March (10:00): 59 expected, 58 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, January (16:00): -$29.4B prior
March 16 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/12 (7:00): 0.2% prior
CPI, February (8:30): -0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Core CPI, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Housing Starts, February (8:30): 1137K expected, 1099K prior
Building Permits, February (8:30): 1204K expected, 1202K prior
Industrial Production, February (9:15): -0.3% expected, 0.9% prior
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 76.9% expected, 77.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 03/12 (10:30): 3.88M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, March (14:00): 0.375% expected, 0.375% prior
March 17 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/12 (8:30): 266K expected, 259K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/05 (8:30): 2225K prior
Philadelphia Fed, March (8:30): -1.4 expected, -2.8 prior
Current Account Balance, Q4 (8:30): -$116.0B expected, -$124.1B prior
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 03/12 (10:30): -57 bcf prior
March 18 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, March (10:00): 92.2 expected, 91.7 prior
End part 1 of 3
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