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2/13/2016 Investment House Report
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MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: JPM
Stop alerts: None issued
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks, bonds, currencies retrench, backfill their previous trend for the week ahead of a 3-day weekend.
- Three stories combine to get shorts to cover ahead of the weekend.
- Mixed data? Retail Sales stronger, Business Inventories weak, but look at the huge upward adjustment on retail sales.
- Experts and pundits all think the economy is better than the markets indicate. In other words, prepare for a recession.
- Big names bounced, but they did not change their trends one bit.
Friday stocks bounced as all major asset markets retrenched some of the move on the week. Stocks rose, bonds sold, the dollar gained, oil bounced from its latest selloff, and gold backtracked some of its surge.
SP500 35.70, 1.95%
NADSAQ 70.67, 1.66%
DJ30 313.66, 2.00%
SP400 1.86%
RUTX 1.92%
SOX 2.27%
VOLUME: NYSE trade fell 15% and back near average. NASDAQ volume tumbled to below average (-29%). Lower and light volume on a Friday rebound. Where have we seen this before? More aptly, how many times have we seen this before?
A/D: Quite solid. NYSE 3.8:1, NASDAQ 3:1. Very respectable, but then again, almost all stocks sold across the board, and in that case, when you get this kind of bounce, they all bounce.
A reversal with legs, a new bull run to come? Doubtful. A confluence of events set up the bounce. It started first with the selloff, already a strong one heading into Friday. But that was not the issue: stocks were ready to go lower before the first of the events hits.
First, there was the WSJ story on the UAE claiming a deal was in the offing to cut OPEC production. That halted a dive in stocks and oil, indeed just as stocks where breaking again to lower lows. Second, DB announced overnight a huge $5B+ buy back of its bonds. Third, Jamie Dimon of JPM showed his confidence in the market and JPM, announcing he was using a year's salary to buy JPM stock. Surely, surely the bottom was in.
Frankly, those stories just show how bad things are. That the WSJ rushed out a story of one OPEC member speculating about a coming production cut, a claim that the story itself doubted, shows how desperate the oil situation is. Also, why did DB need to buy back its debt? To show the de facto sovereign bank of Germany CAN buy back its debt and thus put on the trappings of strength? JPM has its head spend 2.5% of his net worth to buy some stock and that shows the bank's strength? I remember back in the crash of 2000 and 2001 how tech company CEO's, CFO's and any other officer they could force buy shares of company stock to show just how much confidence they had in the company's future. Not many of those companies are around anymore, and I dare say that if the CEO's, etc. had to do it over, the LAST thing they would do is buy shares but indeed dump whatever shares they had while they could. No, it shows how bombed the sector is.
I don't mean to sound cynical, but with a sharply lower market, a 3-day weekend, and lots of shorts with gain built in, those three stories gave reason to cover heading into a long weekend. Some say that OPEC and Russia 'blinked' re oil production. Not Saudi Arabia; it knows its plan works and it will stay with it until it does. Not some sudden vote of confidence by DB and JPM. Again, those are signs of almost desperation, that things are NOT well. They are also likely very transient, working ahead of a 3-day weekend but have very little probability of catalyzing a major reversal beyond Friday.
On the session we didn't do much. We did close JPM just because it was so strong on the Dimon purchase announcement. Otherwise we left things as they are and the hardest decision was whether to buy more SBUX, AMZN puts ahead of the weekend (we opted not) or close VRSN after it bounced on earnings but could not get past the recent highs.
The indices such as DJ30, SP500 are bouncing off the January lows while NASDAQ and SOX still struggle; higher Friday but still struggling in weak patterns. Perhaps the head and shoulders does not produce a big break lower, but it will have to show it. Indeed, many 'names' were up but just bouncing in their downtrends. The session left many stocks off the recent lows and up at resistance. GOOG gapped near the 10 day EMA and gave it all up. AMZN showed a doji just below the 10 day EMA, SBUX is testing its 10 day EMA on low volume. PCLN has rebounded but is at similar resistance. Again, this looks like a bounce ahead of the weekend and not a lot more.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Some important economic reports received some splash Friday though outshined by the DB, DIMON, UAE stories. Once again the data was mixed with retail sales stronger than expected while business inventories were weak, particularly sales. But if you look below the headlines, once again you find rather curious handling of the data. That is a nice way of putting some absolutely amazing rewriting of the actual data. Sometimes you feel as if you live in the former Soviet Union and Pravda is reporting the daily communist line.
Retail Sales, January: It's all in the numbers, but what numbers?
0.2% versus 0.2% expected versus 0.2% December (from -0.1%)
Ex Autos and gas: 0.1% versus 0.0%
Control Group: 0.6% versus 0.3% expected versus -0.3% prior. Best since May 2015 at 0.8%.
Okay, looks solid. On the headline. How they got those headlines makes you realize we are being fed crapola.
When you look at the government's underlying data you see how the swing occurred.
It goes back, as it often does, to seasonal adjustments. Those are supposed to smooth out swings in the data based upon the different sales seasons through the year, taking out any unusual gyrations.
In January there were no unusual gyrations. It was pretty much an easy month without any major disruptions. The unadjusted sales fell $112.7B. Adjusted they rose $800M. Billion versus million.
Okay so they raw data and the adjusted data were $113.5B apart. Adjustments are normal. Was this one normal? Again, there were no major events in January to cause it to differ significantly from prior Januarys, specifically nothing negative that would require a sharp upward adjustment.
From 2011 to 2015 the average upward adjustment is 101%. Why so much in January? Winter storms, a natural slowdown following the holiday season are typical reasons. So, what was January 2016's revision?
+239%.
No significant negative events, particularly compared to major winter storms in a few of those Januarys the prior five years, yet the government applied an adjustment 2.4 times the average of those prior five years. What the heck is going on? It is called ends driven data reporting, a.k.a. your government is lying to you to make you doubt what you are experiencing in your life, to make you think that YOU are an outlier, that most are enjoying a 'great' economic recovery.
The Results are in and the Experts all agree -- the market has it wrong.
Add on top of that the commentary of the Federal reserve, leaders in the financial sector, and of course the Administration and President as to how great things are, and you start to think you are a failure.
Friday the Fed's Dudley stated he saw absolutely nothing wrong with the economy that would warrant any cessation of rate hikes, nothing the market was roiled over nothing significant. Also Friday one of JPM's economic analysts appeared on CNBC to discuss the economy versus the market. He termed the market selloff the 'immaculate correction' as he believes there is "absolutely no sign of the labor market or consumer" supporting the market's fall. The President declared economic victory after the last jobs report though the raw unadjusted data, as with retail sales, showed a decline of almost 700K jobs.
Whew, I thought we might have to go full QE . . .
Thursday Chairman Yellen gave her second testimony to Congress on the state of monetary policy. She did not alter the Fed's stance after its January statement at all. One reason: the Federal Advisory Council, made up of twelve banking CEO's, told her "the economy is stronger than the recent negative market sentiment would imply."
This dovetails exactly with the Blackstone CEO's outburst in Davos as to his total confusion at why there was so much anger from most of the populace given the current economic condition.
There you have it, the hubris of those doing very well in the status quo. I have called it the Let them Eat Cake moments of the 21st century. They are truly so far removed from reality they cannot comprehend how the middle class has suffered and how shredded the finances and prospects are for the majority of the middle class.
History shows when views of prosperity are so bifurcated among socio-economic groups that major upheaval is not far away. Hence the dominance of the primary season by those perceived as outside the DC power structure.
Business Inventories tick higher, sales plunge.
Inventories: 0.1% . Year/year +1.7%. Retail inventories +5.4% year/year.
Sales: -0.6%. Year/year -2.4%. Manufacturers -5.1% year/year.
Inventories to Sales Ratio: 1.39. This is the highest since the spike in 2008 when there was recession and in 2001 when there was a previous recession.
Once again another economic data point hits recession levels.
Rome is burning, the economy is being gutted from the middle and killing the middle class, but those in power, those in charge, have no idea of their plight.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
Bounces on Friday but the indices are still below the 10 day EMA. That will be an important test because they all failed at or near the 10 day EMA before the last selloff, and if they do so again that shows the downtrend's strength.
SP500: After touching to a lower low Thursday then reversing on a well-timed 'OPEC has a deal!' report, SP500 continued upside Friday with a gap and rally. Falling, near average volume. Closed out at session highs with an impressive bear market rally. Yes I called it a bear market because that is what we have entered. It was a relief move ahead of a 3-day weekend after a solid two weeks downside to a prior low. Sure it can continue higher and perhaps this was a bottom; the odds of that are less than 10%. This very much looks to be nothing more than a Friday short covering bounce triggered by a likely bogus story and some desperate moves by a couple of banks. While the Fed thinks the economic issues are transitory, we believe this market bounce is transitory, if not contrived.
NASDAQ: Gapped higher with the other indices and closed out at the session high. First below average volume since the December holiday season. Impressive. NASDAQ is still below the January lows, still below the 10 day EMA. We anticipate a move back up to the 10 day EMA (4372) and then to stumble. Looking at AMZN, GOOG, SBUX and others on the Friday session, you get an idea that NASDAQ's move was not that strong.
DJ30: After dipping near the January intraday low Thursday, even DJ30 gapped upside. Rallied to the close on impressively light volume. With the bank stocks jumping, DJ30 jumped, but there was not a lot of internal power.
SOX: After gapping lower Thursday, SOX gapped upside Friday and filled the gap early. Below the January closing levels and the 10 day EMA. Key test at 577.
RUTX: After a lower low Thursday and doji with tail, RUTX rallied to fill the gap and past the Tuesday and Wednesday closes. Still below the 10 day EMA, and as noted above, that test is an important one in determining how strong the downtrend is.
SP400: Gapped and rallied Friday after testing the January lows Thursday. Closed 6 points off the 10 day EMA.
LEADERSHIP
News flash: Still no leaders. To all of those pundits out there calling for a bottom or how the market is just not cognizant of how great the economy is, the market is going to have a hard time rallying with no leaders. Oh you can have some utilities bounce and other sectors capture some confused money, but that is not leadership. Without it, any bounce is doomed.
Big Names: The NASDAQ big names struggled even with the market surge. AMZN was up but it gapped to a doji, just tapping at the 10 day EMA on the high. GOOG gapped to near the 10 day EMA and reversed the entire move. AAPL never sold much over the past two weeks as it led the downside earlier. It didn't bounce much Friday but it could be prepping for a new move. FB gapped over the 50 day MA's but then sold below them; bear flag here as well. MSFT was up, bouncing off the 200 day SMA after four days there. Hit the 10 day EMA, showed a doji. Struggled.
Energy: So back and forth but perhaps this rumor-driven rally can break them out. XOM is back over the 200 day SMA. It crossed that level three times in the past five sessions. CVX gapped up off the bottom trendline, still in the wedge. Smaller issues were not bad: SWN jumped upside, GPOR jumped off the 50 day EMA. Service companies are struggling, e.g. HAL. SLB, however, jumped higher.
Financial: JPM and DB helped gin up the sector. GS gapped off the Thursday new low but is in a pernicious downtrend now. BAC gapped and filled the Thursday gap lower, but still well below the 10 day EMA. MA is moving up to the 20 day EMA on low volume, its resistance in its downtrend. V gapped and rallied to the 10 day EMA on very low volume; perhaps a downside play is at hand. Still an ugly downtrend and as these stocks recover to the 10 day EMA we can look to play them on the next leg lower.
Utilities: Struggled to end the week, but overall decent, an indication of a still weak bias in the market. AEP fell Thursday and Friday, falling below the 20 day EMA Friday. PCG is not bad, tapping at the 20 day EMA on the low, bouncing to flat and a doji. EQT is getting it back together.
Metals: Not a bad day, not bad setups. FCX broke higher off the 20 day EMA after a 5 day test; not any volume, but we will see if it can continue next week. STLD gapped off the 50 day EMA test. SCHN surged. AKS jumped off of its 50 day EMA test.
Retail: Recovered some ground lost Wednesday and Thursday. M managed to move up off the 50 day EMA but on very low trade. LOW is bouncing off of an utter gutting. COST is trying to set up something at the 200 day SMA. WSM is still trying to build something. KORS is still in a pretty nice 10 day EMA test after its big earnings gap breakout.
Chips: Relief bounce after a gutting. AVGO hit a new low and bounced but on pitifully low trade. Ditto NXPI. QRVO bounced on stronger, average volume; interesting. MCHP bounced off a doji low Thursday but no volume; none. MLNX moved up through the 200 day SMA, still showing relative strength to the group. CAVM is jumping off the lows. Many bounces off a tail kicking, but for the most part you have to wait for them to setup again.
MARKET STATISTICS
NASDAQ
Stats: +70.67 points (+1.66%) to close at 4337.51
Volume: 1.924B (-29.14%)
Up Volume: 1.62B (+836.45M)
Down Volume: 345.09M (-1.665B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.06 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.3 to 1
New Highs: 10 (+3)
New Lows: 147 (-357)
S&P
Stats: +35.7 points (+1.95%) to close at 1864.78
NYSE Volume: 1.12B (-15.15%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.83 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.32 to 1
New Highs: 21 (-16)
New Lows: 122 (-479)
DJ30
Stats: +313.66 points (+2%) to close at 15973.84
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 25.4; -2.74. Gapped higher Thursday but only matched the January highs before fading to the 10 day EMA Friday. Not enough to bounce the market before, not enough now. Again, however, it is setting up for a breakout and that will push stocks lower and may finally set up a serious relief rally.
VXN: 29.74; -2.13
VXO: 26.9; -3.88
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.04
Recent history: 5 of 8 sessions below 1.0, 20 of the last 31 sessions above 1.0.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls post a massive plunge after a big surge. Bulls hold mostly steady, rising modestly. Still a major crossover. This indicator is screaming rally, but it is an indicator that definitely precedes a move, and timing is not its specialty. Another big selloff that spikes VIX might do the trick for a serious tradable relief move. Without leaders, that is all it would be.
Bulls: 24.7 versus 34.0. What a plunge.
Bears: 39.2 versus 38.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 24.7%
34.0% versus 29.2% versus 26.8% versus 28.6% versus 34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 45.3% versus 46.9% versus 43.7% versus 37.5% versus 36.5% versus 30.2% versus 24.7% versus 26.0% versus 26.8% versus 25.7% versus 27.8% versus 31.6% versus 37.7% versus 40.2%
Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in 2015 since the 2008 and 2009 market plummet.
Bears: 39.2%
38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1% versus 35.7% versus 31.6% versus 29.6% versus 29.6% versus 27.6% versus 26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5% versus 17.5%
Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Both occurred in fall 2015.
OTHER MARKETS
A bit of retrenchment after some pretty strong moves.
Bonds (10 year): 1.75% versus 1.64%. Gapped lower after gapping Thursday. Kind of island reversal-like after clearing the March 2015 high and taking aim at the January 2015 peak. Tremendous move the past six weeks, so some retrenchment makes sense.
Historical: 1.64% versus 1.69% versus 1.73% versus 1.76% versus 1.85% versus 1.85% versus 1.88% versus 1.86% versus 1.96% versus 1.93% versus 1.99% versus 2.019% versus 2.01% versus 2.01% versus 2.05% versus 2.01% versus 1.99% versus 2.05% versus 2.03% versus 2.09% versus 2.07% versus 2.105% versus 2.17% versus 2.11% versus 2.15% versus 2.18% versus 2.25% versus 2.18% versus 2.24% versus 2.27% versus 2.30%
EUR/USD: 1.1249 versus 1.1322. The euro actually fell a bit after a two week break higher that tested the May to October 2015 tops of the trading range.
Historical: 1.1322 versus 1.1293 versus 1.1294 versus 1.1197 versus 1.1159 versus 1.1206 versus 1.1110 versus 1.0916 versus 1.0905 versus 1.0836 versus 1.0939 versus 1.0899 versus 1.0854 versus 1.0849 versus 1.0798 versus 1.0769 versus 1.0815 versus 1.0910 versus 1.0917 versus 1.0869 versus 1.0879 versus 1.0851
USD/JPY: 113.29 versus 112.39. The dollar actually bounced after a two-week tail kicking. What a plunge. If it didn't bounce the dollar would need to be converted to gold immediately.
Historical: 112.39 versus 113.36 versus 115.085 versus 115.74 versus 116.83 versus 116.76 versus 117.88 versus 120.04 versus 121.014 versus 121.055 versus 118.27 versus 118.64 versus 118.48 versus 118.32 versus 118.78 versus 118.85 versus 116.99 versus 117.60 versus 117.02 versus 118.06 versus 117.72 versus 117.50 versus 117.73 versus 117.71 versus 117.24 versus 117.58 versus 118.25 versus 119.02 versus 119.397 versus 120.495
Oil: 29.02, 1.72, +6.30%. It took a rank rumor to get oil off its hind end and bounce. 6.3% and that got oil to tap at the 10 day EMA on the high. Maybe it can make more upside here but it is still in the nasty downtrend that renewed after an 8 week bounce attempt. At some point it needs to do that again, and oil has sold in four rotations down the 10 and 20 day EMA. Perhaps time for a base.
Gold: 1238.50, -8.50. After a huge rally the past two weeks on top of the prior three weeks, gold may have hit the apex for just a bit. What a surge Thursday then a pause Friday, still 65 points or so off of the January 2015 peak. A bit of consolidation makes sense.
TUESDAY
Market closed Monday for the aggregation of all the Presidents' birthdays. That is what helped the market bounce Friday when those short covering triggers started to hit from OPEC deals to banks and their votes of confidence.
Of course there are those saying this is a new rally time for the market and of course there is always the possibility they are correct. Looking at the stock charts, however, they do not suggest that is the case. The market was ready to plunge Thursday when the OPEC report/rumor/wish hit. After the weekend is through, China opens, and those upside catalysts dissipate, if nothing new hits we anticipate the downside to resume.
Indeed, some of the setups already look great even as Friday closed out. Perhaps they are just a head fake on a continued move higher, but until they show that move we are going to look for the downside plays. The downside is the trend, the setups are there, and there just are not that many great looking upside plays ready to go. And, of course, the experts and pundits are talking about value, and buying into stocks. Indeed, late Friday we heard that David Tepper went long a huge number of S&P 500 calls on the week. Tepper is rich and makes a lot of money, but he has made some huge misses. One in 2013 when he came on CNBC and said he was worried even as we saw great setups in AMZN, GOOG, etc. That day was THE bottom in that selling. He has also made bullish calls at tops. This could be one.
That is interesting in terms of market psychology, the old 'it's got to be better now because it has been so bad' mentality. They cite better valuations, but of course valuations always get better on any significant selling. But values don't turn markets; they are part of the setup after a big selloff, but it takes stocks under accumulation to produce a sustained move. Not enough of those right now.
Therefore we will look for downside plays, for the most part, and we see quite a few. We will not forget the upside; they can still produce gains, and if the market defies the probabilities and keeps rallying, it is of course good to have those in the pocket, ready to go. There are some bounces and some stocks moving upside. Some chips are showing stronger moves. KORS is set up for a bounce higher again. NVDA can bounce but earnings are 2/17. CAKE is trying to rise from a cup with handle but its earnings are 2/16. Utilities still decent but they are utilities.
So now we wait and see how China performs for a couple of days while the US is closed. It may allow China to catch down and give the US markets a clean slate by Tuesday. We will see, but overall the trend is still down and nothing thus far has changed that because there is no change in fiscal or monetary policy, and judging from Chairman Yellen's testimony and Dudley's Friday comments, the Fed is not even near the idea of stopping rate hikes, a much lower standard than reversing course.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 4337.51
Resistance:
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4363 is the February upper gap point
The 10 day EMA at 4372
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August 2015 low.
4635 is the February peak
The 50 day EMA at 4656
4736 is the early January lower gap point downside, the last downside gap in the selloff.
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4815 is the December 2014 peak
The March 2015 lows at 4843 and 4825
4902 is the July 2015 low
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
The 200 day SMA at 4919
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4999 is the October upper gap point
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
Support:
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
4212 is the February intraday low
4116 is the October 2014 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1864.78
Resistance:
1867 is the August 2015 low
The 10 day EMA at 1871
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1905 is the August 2014 low
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the August selling
1940 is the early January 2016 failed bounce peak
The 50 day EMA at 1945
1972 is the December 2014 low
1991 is the July 2014 high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
2011 is the September prior all-time high
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 2034
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
Support:
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
1859 is the January 2016 closing low
1820 is the October 2014 intraday low
1815 is the April 2014 low
1812 is the January 2016 intraday low
1772 are the Q4 2013 highs and lows
Dow: Closed at 15,968.77
Resistance:
16,026 is the April 2014 low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,466 is the January 2016 recovery attempt closing peak.
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,526 is the early January resistance
The 50 day EMA at 16,584
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce peak.
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to a head and shoulders pattern
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
The 200 day SMA at 17,285
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
June 2015 low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
The March low at 17,786
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
Support:
15,855 is the October 2014 intraday low
15,766 is the January closing low
15,666 is the August 2015 closing low
15,450 is the January 2016 intraday low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
15,370 is the August 2015 low
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
February 12 - Friday
Export Prices ex-ag., January (8:30): -0.8% actual versus -1.1% prior (revised from -1.0%)
Import Prices ex-oil, January (8:30): -0.2% actual versus -0.3% prior (no revisions)
Retail Sales, January (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from -0.1%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, January (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from -0.1%)
Business Inventories, December (10:00): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from -0.2%)
Michigan Sentiment Preliminary, February (10:00): 90.7 actual versus 92.7 expected, 92.0 prior (January Final)
February 16 - Tuesday
Empire Manufacturing, February (8:30): -9.9 expected, -19.4 prior
NAHB Housing Market , February (10:00): 60 expected, 60 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, December (16:00): $31.4B prior
February 17 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 02/13 (7:00): 9.3% prior
PPI, January (8:30): -0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Core PPI, January (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.1% prior
Housing Starts, January (8:30): 1171K expected, 1149K prior
Building Permits, January (8:30): 1200K expected, 1232K prior
Industrial Productio, January (9:15): 0.3% expected, -0.4% prior
Capacity Utilization, January (9:15): 76.6% expected, 76.5% prior
Crude Inventories, 02/13 (10:30): -0.754M prior
FOMC Minutes, January 27 (14:00)
February 18 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 02/13 (8:30): 274K expected, 269K prior
Continuing Claims, 02/06 (8:30): 2237K expected, 2239K prior
Philadelphia Fed, February (8:30): -2.9 expected, -3.5 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 02/13 (10:30): -70 bcf prior
February 19 - Friday
CPI, January (8:30): -0.1% expected, -0.1% prior
Core CPI, January (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
End part 1 of 3
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