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12/12/2015 Investment House Report
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Targets hit: SDS
Entry alerts: AAPL; CTRP
Trailing stops: NFLX; PCLN
Stop alerts: AKS; PCLN; SBUX; SIMO
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- SP500 breaks support, DJ30 breaks trend, following the small and midcaps lower. SOX remains decent.
- Watching support levels as more leaders start to fail.
- Retail sales decent enough though rising prices color the result.
- M&A to cut more US jobs
- Insiders selling at historically high levels.
- Is a rate hike really factored in?
- Largest option expiration in years looms with lots of long puts at lower SP500 strikes.
- The makings of another turbulent week. Time to protect positions, use moves to our advantage, be patient to let the next move set up.
It would appear RUTX and SP400 were simply early leaders -- to the downside. Those indices faltered at support early week, broke lower to midweek, giving up their trendlines. Friday SP500, DJ30 and NASDAQ joined them in the trendline break. They also added 2% losses on the session, but they are just trying to keep up with the small and midcaps that continue diving lower. They have a long way to go, however, given the smaller cap indices bombed another 1.5% to 2% Friday themselves.
Stock futures fell off of decent levels early morning, then flopped just ahead of the opening bell. Unlike other sessions, no attempt at bids on the session as the low open was sold and the indices trended lower all day, closing at the session lows.
SP500 -39.86, -1.94%
NASDAQ -111.70, -2.21%
Dj30 -309.54, -1.76%
VOLUME: Of course it rose on the downside session, NYSE +14%, NASDAQ +18%, both easily back above average after Thursday's lower volume upside relief move. Stocks continue to fall on rising volume as investors don't want to own them right now.
A/D: Impressively weak. NYSE -7:1, NASDAQ -5:1. Weak, but not extreme. When it gets to around -10:1 NYSE, THAT is extreme.
Why the weakness? Likely because there is just nothing good to report economically that shows any real improvement with the FOMC rate hike on top of those numbers. After 10 years the market is a bit apprehensive as to what the result will be in terms of the economy and market, and the 'sell' button received a lot of use today.
SP500 crashed the 38% Fibonacci retracement as well as the trendline while DJ30 and NASDAQ held the 38% level. Ironically, NASDAQ broke below the 200 day SMA just days after the 50 day SMA moved up through the 200 day SMA, trying to reverse the 'death cross.' Decent that those two held the retracement, but that has not meant a thing thus far in terms of holding and bouncing back upside.
The market is in full sell mode ahead of the FOMC and as usual when in this circumstance, it is a matter of watching and seeing where the leading stocks and the indices actually decide to hold the line. Friday some of the big names broke lower through next support (e.g. AAPL, SBUX) while others hung in decently (e.g. GOOG, PCLN). Others are in between, e.g. NFLX, FB. We closed several just to avoid getting caught in a further selloff, noting if they suddenly hold we can always get back in.
We picked up some AAPL and CTRP puts, took some gain on the SDS position as it brushed the initial target, and closed others such as PCLN, NFLX to avoid any damage. Again, we can always move back into those stocks if they hold versus fold if, after all of the volatility and then downside on the week, the market gets comfortable with what the Fed will do next week.
A bit of a sense of certainty regarding the Fed could change the new market character, but when you look back at the pattern since October 2014, this looks as if it is a break lower that is hardly resolved at this point. Doesn't mean the market won't bounce on an interim basis to test the break, but once it does, the likelihood of holding and continuing to higher highs is slim.
Quite a bit of news out Friday, some of it planned, some not. Some perhaps impacted the market action, but it was hard to tell. Some was solid enough, some others were less great.
Retail Sales, Nov: 0.2% vs 0.3% exp vs 0.3% prior. Weakest year/year since 11/2009
Ex-autos: 0.4% vs 0.3% exp vs 0.1% prior as autos fell 0.4%.
Control group: 0.6%. That feeds into GDP so GDP will get a boost.
How reliable are these numbers? At this point who knows? Gasoline is lower so that is a drag. Food is higher and that is inflation versus eating more food. Remember, retail sales measures dollars spent, not quantities purchased. Better than expected in some areas, worse in others. Overall, taken at face value, the 'ex-' group is better. The overall number is kind of recessionary.
PPI: 0.3% versus 0.1% versus -0.3% prior
Core: 0.3% versus 0.1% expected versus -0.4% prior
Prices higher, retail sales higher, retail sales based upon dollars, not quantity. That suggests some influence from higher prices on retail sales.
Higher prices so I guess the Fed has to hike, right? But there's more.
Business Inventories, October: 0.0% versus 0.1% exp vs 0.1% prior (from 0.3%). Second weakest reading of the year.
Sales: -0.2% versus 0.0% versus -0.6% September.
As with Wholesale Inventories, sales fell as inventories fell. So, no jump in sales driving inventories lower, just a lack of production and stocking the shelves, not all that surprising seeing what the PMI and ISM manufacturing reports have shown.
Michigan Sentiment, December preliminary: 91.8 versus 91.6 expected versus 93.1 November final.
Virtually worthless statistic at this juncture.
BRK.B covets another railroad in NSC (Norfolk Southern). Doubling down? CSX hasn't exactly been a barn burner for Berkshire since that acquisition.
DD/DOW marriage is officially on. A bonus: Laying off 10% of combined workforce. The bald guy on CNBC says this deal was necessary to compete due to globalization.
Translated: US workers are again losing jobs in an effort to make the rest of the world richer.
Hey, at least there is something to keep stock prices higher now that companies are starting to cancel or lower dividends.
Insider Selling Surges.
TrimTabs reports November insider sales at $7.6B. The big deal? That is the fourth highest ever recorded. Hey, it's not the highest.
But, it dovetails with the indices making highs, posting massive selloffs, recovering but not capturing or surpassing the old highs, then selling off again.
NASDAQ: Some of the big names broke lower and NASDAQ did as well, gapping through the 200 day SMA and selling toward the mid-November low. That low is at the 38% Fibonacci retracement so you could think double bottom, but NASDAQ also put in a double top at the November and early December peaks; competing doubles? The 4900 level that is the 38% Fibonacci retracement is support from other price points as well, so it is fairly significant. That said, for the upside about the best you can look for is a trading range. Premature to say that will happen, just noting the possibilities. There will likely be an attempt at a hold at 4900 before any further selling. The irony: the 50 day SMA crossed up through the 200 day MA just a few days ago.
SOX: Gapped through the 200 day SMA as well, landing on the 50 day MA's and still easily above the prior low from mid-November. There is some support here from the late March low and gap points in July and October. A very interesting level for SOX to try to bounce. Interesting to see how it reacts this week, particularly given the FOMC decision, a massive options expiration, and who knows what else.
SP500: No double bottom at the 38% Fibonacci retracement, breaking through the mid-November low. As noted Thursday, it is a matter of seeing where it holds. There is option expiration Friday, and it is the largest in years given the number of open interest, particularly the downside contracts on SP500. Some are positing a crash to the 1800's. SP500 is definitely under pressure. What for some support at 1990. After this kind of selling SP500 will try and hold an important level to at least post a relief move. 1990 is an important level. Hey, it could put in an D point to an ABCD pullback at that level; yes, you always have to watch for the potential support levels.
DJ30: Fell like a stone similar to SP500, but unlike that index it held the 38% Fibonacci retracement on the close. Oh wow, a double bottom? Don't hold your breath. Just have to watch for now.
RUTX: Blew right through the November low and the coincident bottom of the October consolidation. Small caps getting smaller, suggesting the economics for the US are not that great.
SP400: Bombing below the mid-November low. Not great for the economy as well.
Still some quality leadership but of course much thinner. Further, the sectors have winners and losers as the selling takes down more and more stocks.
Big Names: Mixed with some breaks lower and some not so bad breaks lower. AAPL broke through its trendline from August. SBUX broke the 50 day EMA though it is in its lateral trading range. FB sold to the 50 day MA and some support. GOOG gapped to a doji, still fine. NFLX selling through the 20 day EMA as its test continues. AMZN continued its roll lower.
Semiconductors: LSCC gave up some of the Thursday move, still in good position but of course needs to hold. MXWL flat, basically sold out on this pullback. AMD lost all of the solid Thursday move. SWKS gapped lower though still in the pattern. QRVO held well at the 20 day EMA. Still hanging in, but the sector was not immune from the selling.
China: Somewhat divergent again. SINA selling harder. WUBA tested but holding near support at the 10 day EMA. NTES testing at the 10 day EMA as well. CTRP gapped and sold.
Energy: Down on the week, bounced into Thursday, but then kicked and gouged again Friday. XOM gapped lower from a bear flag. Ditto HAL. And the same action on CVX.
Biotech/Drugs: Under pressure, but performing pretty decently under that pressure. MYL lost just a bit of ground. TEVA off but a rather routine test. ACHN in a pretty nice pullback, working on its pattern. BIIB is holding its pattern, still working on a base.
Retail: Deep discounters holding up, testing during the selling. DG, DLTR are still testing. DDS, M, JWN still stink.
Stats: -111.71 points (-2.21%) to close at 4933.47
Volume: 2.01B (+18.64%)
Up Volume: 300.39M (-879.61M)
Down Volume: 1.78B (+1.235B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 5.1 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.15 to 1
New Highs: 21 (-9)
New Lows: 219 (+98)
Stats: -39.86 points (-1.94%) to close at 2012.37
NYSE Volume: 995M (+14.08%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 7.12 to 1. Getting there but not there. 10:1 is in the extreme range.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.03 to 1
New Highs: 6 (-13)
New Lows: 359 (+210). Getting more interesting, but not at the 500-600 for an extreme reading.
Stats: -309.54 points (-1.76%) to close at 17265.21
VIX: 24.39; +5.05
VXN: 24.38; +4.27
VXO: 25.28; +5.76
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.08; -0.17
Recent history: 12 of 14 sessions above 1.0.
Bulls and Bears: The spread shows a familiar pattern in this market: bulls higher while bears rise as well. Of course after this past week bulls will tumble and bears will growl higher.
Bulls: 44.9 versus 41.2.
Bears: 27.6 versus 26.8. Up but not near 35% level considered bullish.
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 45.3% versus 46.9% versus 43.7% versus 37.5% versus 36.5% versus 30.2% versus 24.7% versus 26.0% versus 26.8% versus 25.7% versus 27.8% versus 31.6% versus 37.7% versus 40.2% versus 42.2% versus 43.3% versus 49.0% versus 43.7% versus 44.8% versus 49.5
Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in 2015 since the 2008 and 2009 market plummet.
26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5% versus 17.5% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.4% versus 15.4% versus 16.5% versus 16.5% versus 15.8% versus 14.9% versus 15.8% versus 13.9%
Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Both occurred in fall 2015.
Bonds (10 year): 2.13% versus 2.23%. After trading back and forth session to session, bonds blast higher, gapping over the 200 day SMA and the early December high. Not much fear of the Fed.
Historical: 2.23% versus 2.21% versus 2.23% versus 2.23% versus 2.27% versus 2.33% versus 2.18% versus 2.15% versus 2.21% versus 2.22% versus 2.24% versus 2.25% versus 2.26% versus 2.23% versus 2.27% versus 2.26% versus 2.27% versus 2.28% versus 2.32% versus 2.32% versus 2.35% versus 2.33% versus 2.24% versus 2.23% versus 2.22% versus 2.19% versus 2.15% versus 2.17% versus 2.09% versus 2.03% versus 2.06% versus 2.09% versus 2.03% versus 2.07% versus 2.03% versus 2.03% versus 1.98%
EUR/USD: 1.0987 versus 1.0944. Holding the gains on the week as the euro continues to climb post-ECB and even ahead of a purported Fed rate hike.
Historical: 1.0944 versus 1.1029 versus 1.0892 versus 1.0844 versus 1.0872 versus 1.0948 versus 1.0595 versus 1.0625 versus 1.0566 versus 1.0592 versus 1.0627 versus 1.0630 versus 1.06486 versus 1.0659 versus 1.0642 versus 1.0669 versus 1.0751 versus 1.0821 versus 1.0740 versus 1.0725 versus 1.0754 versus 1.0742 versus 1.0878 versus 1.0860 versus 1.0963 versus 1.1012 versus 1.1015 versus 1.10979 versus 1.1030 versus 1.1047 versus 1.1049 versus 1.1017 versus 1.1108 versus 1.1339
DXY0: Holding at the 50 day SMA as the dollar continues its struggle after the peak to start December.
USD/JPY: 120.85 versus 121.64. Dollar broke hard downside through the 200 day SMA. The dollar has given up the four week lateral range and is diving.
Historical: 121.64 versus 121.40 versus 122.97 versus 123.28 versus 123.15 versus 122.49 versus 123.30 versus 122.91 versus 123.107 versus 122.76 versus 122.79 versus 123.22 versus 122.79 versus 122.98 versus 123.55 versus 123.44 versus 123.20 versus 122.67 versus 122.56 versus 122.85 versus 122.90 versus 123.16 versus 123.16 versus 121.76 versus 121.58 versus 120.98 versus 120.77 versus 120.62 versus 121.10 versus 120.34 versus 120.36 versus 121.10 versus 121.46 versus 120.71 versus 119.925
Oil: 35.62, -1.14. The EIA said that 2016 the glut would continue. The selloff in oil continued as well. On the week oil was down 10% and gapped below the August low. 32ish is next support.
Gold: 1075.70, +3.70. After bouncing the prior week, gold managed ot hold the gain, trying to set up the next move higher.
Huge week ahead. This past week saw the indices break. They didn't look that strong with the recovery attempt after the recovery attempt coming up short, all of this just below the summertime highs. Ever since QE3 ended the market has struggled even though the large cap indices punched out new highs. The recovery came up short, then the latest bounce, as noted, came up short as well. Then they broke the past two weeks, the large caps joining the small and midcaps this week.
The action was of course aided by the ECB failing to satisfy the market's desires even if Mario Draghi came to the microphone the following session to pick them back up.
This week the Chinese, while they were still sweeping up after the meeting to include the yuan in the reserve currency basket, went back to the massive currency manipulation it is so fond of. It laid off long enough to get approval for the inclusion, then it was back to manipulation as always. Everyone acts so surprised by the move. They are communists and they do what communists do. Reminds me of 'Casablanca' and Captain Renault stating he was 'shocked, shocked to find that gambling going on in here.'
Rick (Bogart): 'How can you close me up? On what grounds? '
Captain Renault: 'I am shocked, shocked, to find that there is gambling going on in here.'
'Your winnings sir.'
Renault: 'Thank you very much.'
Quite the lively setup for this week that sees the FOMC ready to hike rates and the largest expiration in years.
Is that factored in, Sir?
Is the Fed ready to hike? It's rhetoric is such, but the past day or two many have said that if the Fed was meeting right now it would not hike. Really? A rather modest drop in the market and a hike is off?
Well, there is the Chinese devaluation. The last time that happened in late August there was the massive market dive, the almost flash crash that one Monday that did finally set the bottom of a big drop off. Could a devaluation have such intense effects? It certainly did not help. This current round of devaluation is no less than the prior and it could be that the selling this week was in part the after effect yet again. That makes you wonder what early next week could be like.
The Fed is in that difficult position where if it hikes it is doing so into an economic slowdown no matter how some of the television pundits speak their prayer that it is not happening as they predict a rosy 2016. It has, as Archie Bunker would say on the 1970's show 'All in the Family,' painted itself in a corner and thrown away the key. By its own metrics it has to hike, but by the leading metrics it should not. Or maybe it should and throw the stimulus responsibility back to Congress and the Executive where it belongs. What a novel idea.
Don't forget, if the Fed is going to hike and make the hike a real one, it has to drain liquidity. Given the amount of liquidity and the General Capital level, it has to be huge withdrawal. I heard a surprising number of 'experts' talking this past week about how the rate hike is no big deal, means nothing in terms of the big picture, and is 'factored into' the financial markets.
Really? Bonds flying higher. The dollar falling as fast as Jeb Bush's ranking in the polls.
Stocks careening lower. The Chinese devaluing the yuan fast and furious to get ahead of the Fed's expected hike next week. Yes, it is SO factored in. And, of course, the Fed withdrawing $400B to $800B in liquidity from the economy 'means nothing' to financial markets.
On the other hand, perhaps the market is factoring too much negative in. Maybe it is scared of the possibilities similar to Y2K when people were hoarding food and had escape plans in place because of the coming end of the mechanized world. Perhaps the rate hike will be nothing. If the Fed is worried it might cause disruption (more disruption?) then it hikes and does not withdraw the liquidity. Of course then it has no credibility, but then again, it doesn't have much to lose anyway.
It is the first rate hike in 10 years. The market acts as if it does not know what to make of it and is doing what it does with uncertainty: selling. It could be it gets enough out of its system, gets comfortable with the pricing after the decline, and firms. It is, unfortunately, an unknown given how long it has been since the last hike. The market patterns are, however, quite clear in their weakness as they prepare for the event.
That's one big expiration.
This week is expiration, and with $1.1T in options open it is the largest in years. A lot of the open interests are long puts on SP500 in the 2000 to 1900 range. Sometimes such a large block is a draw, pulling the index toward it. Other times it repels, sending the market in the direction or at a level that inflicts the most pain on participants. If so, the market holds higher and those with the long puts lose.
Again, possibilities, but as with the reaction to the FOMC action (or inaction), there is no clear right or wrong. The market is selling after breaking support. That is paramount. Where it may find support is where you look.
In any event, with so much money on the line you get . . . volatility. The market is down big for over a week, perhaps a bit of cold feet selling. It can keep selling, but even a weak market gets oversold and bounces back.
Bigger picture, the market pattern formed a top at the end of QE. The Fed wants out of the stimulus game. It is set to hike. It could pull a lot of liquidity out if it is real in its desire to tighten. The economy has slowed and is still slowing. The indices have failed, for the most part, in their attempt to recover the upside momentum. The outlook frankly does not look good as there is no catalyst to own stocks.
Thus, despite the any ups and downs this week, look at them in the bigger context of whether they change the character back to the upside. No change and the market will continue its overall decline. There will be upside bouts that are tradable and can make money. There are still good upside plays right now. The market just has to be in position where there is more than a few days upside to make those plays.
This week will be more about just seeing how the market reacts to the forces upon it. We are lighter in our positions upside, have picked up more downside. We can look at more downside and are, but the market is down pretty hard already. If it opens lower to start the week, it likely is not long before it tests back upside. That may set up a better downside entry point once again.
We will defend positions we have and see how the market sets up after this selloff and ahead of the FOMC and expiration. A bounce has to be viewed as a relief move and thus a potential exit move for upside positions and as a setup for more downside for when the move stalls.
Not the best prognosis, but it is what it is. I plan on being patient this week in terms of new positions though some here in the office will be trading furiously intraday. We will have downside and upside plays at the ready in the event there is a strong, character building market move. Whether that occurs before or after the big events of the week remains to be seen, if indeed it occurs at all.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 4933.47
The June low at 4974
The 200 day SMA at 4977
4999 is the October upper gap point
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 5017
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5164 is the June 2015 peak, 5175 is the August intraday peak
5232 is the July high
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4912 the mid-April China dip
4902 is the July 2015 low
4837 is the late August 2015 rebound high
4828 is the late August peak
The March lows at 4843 and 4825
4815 is the December 2014 prior market peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
S&P 500: Closed at 2012.37
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 2056
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2063
2076 is the all-time high from November
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2115 is the late March lower high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
1989 is the last August closing high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1883.57 is the early March high.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
Dow: Closed at 17,265.21
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
The 50 day EMA at 17,480
The 200 day SMA at 17,564
17,585 to 17,579, the March intraday lows, helping mark the bottom of the Dow's The February to July trading range.
June low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
The March low at 17,786
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
18,110 - 18,120 from December 2014, July 2015 peaks
18,289 from February 2015
18,351 from May 2015 and the all-time high
17,200 is the 38% Fibonacci retracement
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery peak
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce peak.
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high. Key, key level.
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
December 11 - Friday
Core PPI, November (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.1% expected, -0.3% prior (no revisions)
PPI, November (8:30): 0.3% actual versus -0.1% expected, -0.4% prior (no revisions)
Retail Sales, November (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior (no revisions)
Retail Sales ex-auto, November (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Business Inventories, October (10:00): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.3%)
Michigan Sentiment, December preliminary (10:00): 91.8 actual versus 91.6 expected, 91.3 prior final, November
December 15 - Tuesday
Core CPI, November (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
CPI, November (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.2% prior
Empire Manufacturing, December (8:30): -5.9 expected, -10.7 prior
NAHB Housing Market , December (10:00): 63 expected, 62 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, October (16:00): $33.6B prior
December 16 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/12 (7:00): 1.2% prior
MBA Mortgage Purchas, 12/12 (7:00): 1.2% prior
Building Permits, November (8:30): 1150K expected, 1150K prior
Housing Starts, November (8:30): 1135K expected, 1060K prior
Capacity Utilization, November (9:15): 77.5% expected, 77.5% prior
Industrial Productio, November (9:15): -0.1% expected, -0.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 12/12 (10:30): -3.568M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, December (14:00): 0.50% expected, 0.25% prior
December 17 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 12/12 (8:30): 2211K expected, 2243K prior
Current Account Bala, Q3 (8:30): -$109.7B prior
Initial Claims, 12/12 (8:30): 276K expected, 282K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/5 (8:30): 2211K expected, 2243K prior
Philadelphia Fed, December (8:30): 2.0 expected, 1.9 prior
Current Account Bala, Q3 (8:30): -$114.2B expected, -$109.7B prior
Leading Indicators, November (10:00): 0.6% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/12 (10:30): -76 bcf prior
End part 1 of 3
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