Saturday, August 15, 2015

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 8-15-15

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8/15/2015 Investment House Report
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Targets hit: None issued
Buy alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

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The REPORTS SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play tables.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.


- And on the fourth day the PBOC rested.
- Visualize a market without the Fed. And the Federal government intervention.
- Fed is in a box as it prepares to hike when it likely needs more QE to save its markets and the 'wealth effect.'
- Near term SP500 looks ready to lead a bounce to the top of the range, but longer term the prognosis is not that great.
- A lack of leadership stepping up despite the trading range action.
- Playing a move up then we see what the sellers can do.

Friday China decided not to intervene and indeed pegged the yuan 0.05% higher. Well that took the pressure off; I for one was so relieved. Apparently everyone else as well as it was reported $14B flowed out of US equity funds on the week.

I often wish I didn't have anything to write about or think about market other than the market. What do I mean? Think how great it would be without a Federal Reserve, or at least one that morphed its mandate from two simple objectives, maximum growth while maintaining price stability, into the obligation to micromanage the economy. A federal government that did not intrude on every aspect of business, that did not implement massively unpopular regulations on people and businesses, that did not intervene or promulgate new massive regulatory schemes by the stroke of a pen with rules written by unelected bureaucrats versus deliberation and passage by Congress. Or an administration that just flat out fabricates stories to get its way? Thursday and Friday Secretary of State Kerry was pushing the theory that if the Iran deal was not passed the US dollar would crash. Seriously. With that kind of crap, who believes anything they hear?

If we don't give Iran $150B, the US dollar will crash. I know. I was in Viet Nam and saw atrocities and compared them to the barbarism of Genghis Kahn.

Instead, how about a market that reflected a freer business climate, not for the huge conglomerates that have thrived under the favoritism displayed the past few decades, but one that turns back to the way it used to be, keeping the playing field open for anyone with a better idea to succeed and then letting those that succeed actually reap the reward?

I remember the 1980's, and that was a great time for the startup. After a decade and more of terrible policies leading to stagnation, inflation, unemployment, lack of confidence, and disco, taxes were slashed, capital investment incentives provided that everyone could take advantage of, enthusiasm surged, and millions of new businesses were born. Morning in America.

It can happen again. I have written more than a few times that the next President in the US could preside over a boom as good as or better than the Reagan boom with just a few simple and history proven actions. The question is whether we remain mired in esoteric crapola the ruling class from both parties want to keep us preoccupied with, or do we get back to basics and foster an entrepreneurial environment where the best ideas and the hardest and smartest workers succeed? We can grow size of the pie once again and mint many new millionaires from the middle and lower class, not just grow existing millionaires into billionaires under a 'favorites win' system as we have now.

Okay, okay. Enough reminiscing, but it is a worthwhile exercise. Those were exciting times. Fresh out of school I bought a new vehicle and a new fangled personal computer, using accelerated depreciation and investment tax credits, took that technology to the oil patch, and started my own company. In a year I was running several dozen people, using that new portable technology to create opportunities and advantages beyond what was thought possible. Multiply that by millions upon millions and you can understand how the US went from stagflation and malaise to a booming economy with quarter after quarter, year after year, of massive GDP growth. It can be done again, but the policies have to be changed. No change in policies, no change in outcomes.

Stock market still in a topping pattern. It can't help it: QE over, rate hikes ending, economy still weak.

Overall the market still looks to be in a topping pattern. QE ended in October, and as with the end of each QE round since the Fed implemented it in March 2009, the market has struggled. Trending higher, indeed putting in higher highs, but it is a struggle as each high is rather unceremoniously punted and a new index has to step up and try its leadership hand.

Now the economic apologists claim that the economy has truly turned the corner this time. I guess they figure after 6 years the odds are on their side even more now than when the predicted the turn in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and of course 2015. If so, why did many big forecasters this past week lower their Q3 and Q4 outlook to levels that bring GDP growth to sub-2% for the year? The Fed didn't quite go that far, but it did lower its forecast as well. I can finally empathize with Chicago Cubs fans on that long wait for a pennant.

When you consider the big picture, the notion the economy has recovered or is 'turning the corner' is preposterous. As preposterous as the Fed and others commenting this past week that we are at 'full employment.' How can that be when 93.7M working aged workers are out of the labor force (over 40% of all workers)? It is not because everyone is retiring to live the good life: the vast majority of all jobs created have gone to the 55+ age demographic as they re-enter the workforce to make ends meet to pay for their twenty-something kids living at home who have $100K in college debt but no job to show for it. Perhaps the EPA breached the mine containment dam near Silverton, CO as a jobs creator similar to the Great Depression jobs programs: dig that ditch then fill it up. By the way, you should read the account of the geologist who predicted this disaster just days before it happened. Someone needs to hire the 2500 KHZ just announced it would lay off, or the 'hundreds' of management level jobs Union Pacific will close down due to lower and lower coal shipments.

How can the economy be in great shape when food banks are running out of food as the lines get longer and longer? We have 'created or saved' so many more food service jobs than manufacturing jobs that we now have as many bartenders and wait-staff in the US as manufacturing workers. Yet at the same time you hear people such as Bill Gates lamenting the lack of available STEM (Science Technology Engineering Mathematics) employee candidates to fill positions while tens of thousands of graduates with degrees in those areas live in Mom and Dad's basement unemployed in their field. Grand editorials are written by Gates, Zuckerburg and others demanding increased immigration to fill the need for workers, but apparently they only want foreign workers they can pay much less than US citizens. If they don't get their way, they claim they are 'forced' to go overseas.

No, the illusion that the US economy has turned the corner and is on a normal growth cycle is as contrived as the jobs numbers and the 'full employment' meme. This week one of the administration apologists said that the severity of the recession caused the timidity of the recovery (my words, and I think much more descriptive). That is nonsense. History shows that the recovery is proportionate, indeed stronger, than the downturn. Of course, it goes back to policies. The wrong policies lead to weak recoveries no matter how hard the downturn: look at the 1930's and the 1970's as the clear historical record on that.

Of course the stock market reflects these issues, and as when other QE programs ended, the market is waffling. There is not the economic activity to support more sales and thus greater earnings. Once again another earnings season has revealed a lack of sales growth.

For the Dow 30 stocks: Q1 -0.8%. Q2 -3.58%. Q3 -4.0% expected. Q4 -1.8% expected.

If the economy is turning the corner, it has turned it and is staring a massive mountain top climb ahead of it. The Fed, however, has boxed itself into a corner in terms of a rate hike. It has said there will be one this year. If it doesn't hike, everyone knows something is wrong. If it does hike it risks being just another Fed that, by the time it got around to tightening its easy money ways, tightened just at the wrong time.

If the economic deterioration continues around the world and in the US the Fed is in a box. It will be forced, similar to that one-term first Bush disaster to go back on its 'read my lips, first rate hike in 2015' words. But it cannot do that without crashing the markets (after an initial rally) on fear of something wicked this way coming. So, as many have predicted (GS, BAC, Art Cashin, Rick Santelli), the Fed will have to save the market, and thus preserve the utter nonsense of what it calls the 'wealth effect', by implementing a new round of QE. That will only enrich the rich more and further crush the middle class that has to pay for the growing number of lower class citizens those policies create, but that is not the point. We are only talking about markets here, not the citizenry. We will again make great money but it is not the same as that made as companies surge sales, the citizens do well, and the gains are from the success of the country. It is just a monetary event, and at some point history shows that monetary events always unwind.

The Particulars

Friday was mostly higher after a week that started big but as with every good move it seems, it was met Tuesday with selling. A Wednesday reversal looked promising, but the market wandered laterally to the weekend. At least it did not roll over after the Wednesday reversal struggled to continue.

SP500 8.15, 0.39%
NASDAQ 14.68, 0.29%
DJ30 69.15, 0.40%
SP400 0.66%
RUTX 0.66%
SOX -0.60%

VOLUME: NYSE -13%, NASDAQ -9%. Volume lower and still below average on both exchanges in a pretty typical Friday in late summer.

A/D: NYSE 2.2:1, NASDAQ 1.5:1. NASDAQ still sporting very narrow breadth, meaning the big names are still the leaders.

That bought time into this week where SP500 will again attempt the amazing feat of rallying back to its May to July three peaks and perhaps a new high similar to NASDAQ's move four weeks back. It is, after all, SP500's turn. It remains in a pretty decent double bottom test of the July rally, and it is not the lone index showing decent near term (repeat, near term) upside potential. SP400 looks quite good at its 200 day SMA with an inverted head and shoulders, and even NASDAQ is hanging in with a double bottom Fibonacci retracement of the July rally.

So they can bounce. They still have to do it, and near term we think they will, for what that is worth. It all depends upon what the leadership stocks decide. There are leadership stocks that are in position to move from many different sectors. Some look great, many look good, a lot are just okay.

Indeed, many stocks that sported good patterns are just unable to put together the move needed. They are holding the line, but just wandering sideways as the patterns start to deteriorate. We have seen some breakouts get reversed, always as telltale sign to be careful, that perhaps an upside run is running out of stamina. Several plays on the report are just doing nothing, not up, not down, just nothing as we wait to see if they can produce the definitive move to signal an entry. The longer they take, the more we lose interest in them.

That said, SP400, SP500, NASDAQ are set to make a bounce higher off these patterns and we intend to continue playing that move and bank some gain on it.

After that, however, we are not all that confident. The market will go where it wants but if the history of this market during the recovery from the Great Recession holds, it will struggle post-Fed stimulus. Unfortunately, the Fed will be even slower with any new QE this time around and thus there likely will be a rather precipitous tumble before the bald-headed guys on CNBC figure it out and one of them rants and raves again that the Fed now again knows nothing, having forgot the 'lessons' of 2008-2009. Remember, in the current mindset in the US and the world, you cannot let markets go down, everything must be bailed out. The Fed is needed to cheapen the money so the federal government can spend ever more. Without the Fed, interest rates and the dollar would seek their appropriate levels versus the 98% reduction in value seen since the Fed's inception.



SP500: This looks to be the large cap hope index, at least near term. Still in the 78% Fibonacci retracement double bottom off the July rally to the top of the range, we wait to see if SP500 can make the new break higher to again test the top of the range or put in its own higher high, following NASDAQ's lead. Held the 200 day SMA all last week on the closes, showing a good setup, now looking for that move to follow.

SP400: Also holding the 200 day SMA on last week's closes, SP400 undercut the 200 day Wednesday, reversed to hold it on the close, and Friday jumped higher off that support. Still working on the bottom of a right shoulder to an 8 week inverted head and shoulders pattern. In very good shape to make its own run to the top of its range. Good setup, now has to show the move.

NASDAQ: Lost some of its edge on the week, but it too still holds its double bottom or even ABCD at the 61%/78% Fibonacci retracement. Wednesday looked to be a solid reversal but Thursday was massively disappointing in the tap at the 50 day MA on the high and the fade. It left itself in position to move, and as with the S&P brothers above, it is time to make that move.

DJ30: Struggling below its March to July trading range, rebounding to end the week, but just managing to make it to the rapidly declining 10 day EMA. DJ30 'death crossed' last week with the 50 day MA moving down through the 200 day MA. Typically that signals a near term oversold condition that leads to a rebound, but bigger picture it takes more than just a relief rally from selling to change the cross.

RUTX: Russell small caps are attempting a bottom at 1200, the lowest level of support in its range. That is about all I can say at this point.

SOX: After its 11 weeks of selling, SOX is attempting to put in a temporary floor to rally back upside. MACD has improved with higher lows as it puts in lower price lows. Oversold, trying to work laterally to bottom, and definitely in relief bounce position. What kind of a bounce? Not planning on anything major.


As noted above, there are many stocks that are still hanging in at the same price levels, but more just working laterally than working. Now the old adage is never short a dull market or stock. That plays into the notion that the indices are preparing for a bounce higher in the range in some cases or a bounce off new lows in other cases. NASDAQ leadership remains more limited to the big names though there are others in various stages of moves that can provide upside support. The big name leaders are not broken, but they have yet to get any sustained new help, and the market has to develop new leaders.

Recall my comments about the back and forth action typically producing more leaders as patterns are built and then launched? Damn few new names are showing up from this lateral, range-trading action. Oh sure, there are the utilities moving up in decent patterns; now THAT is a real signal of bullish strength.

New leadership remains unsatisfactorily thin. Sure we found several good names in position to take advantage of another run by SP500, SP400 and NASDAQ to the prior highs, but no groundswell of good patterns massing to support not only that move but a move to higher highs. That as much as anything else, indeed more so, is a reason we look at the market with concern for the upside, particularly after this next leg that takes SP500 to the prior peaks.

Big Names: FB remains in a solid four week test of the earnings rally. AMZN is holding its lateral range post-earnings. NFLX bounced Thursday from the 10 day EMA, was flat Friday. Important time for it to reignite the upside. MSFT is putting in a higher low on its test. ULTA is moving to a higher high. EBAY is trying to recover from its Wednesday dip. SBUX broke higher off its 50 day EMA. BA has a nice pattern in place.

Retail: Some interesting stocks, some turning the corner. LOW surged Thursday and Friday, proving the old adage (I made up I think) that if you watch a good pattern long enough you will watch a good move occur. KORS looks ready to put in a relief move of some sort off its selling. WSM is moving to higher highs again. FIVE is showing some good volume as it makes a move from a three week 200 day SMA consolidation. Some leaders still moving to higher highs, others trying to turn the corner and help out.

Biotechs/Drugs: CELG still looks solid. AMGN still looks solid. Both are in pullbacks and could give us buys. ENDP is coming back around in its pattern. HLF is in a nice flag. Others not so great, e.g. KITE, TTPH. ZIOP, BRLI. Formerly great, now goats.

Transports: Some look to be ready for a counter move to the selling. KSU in rails. ODFL and SAIA in trucking. Shipping is still horrid, e.g. TK, DRYS.

Energy: Many still prepping for that second move higher after that initial break from the downtrend. APC, XEC, maybe RIG. Others look solid, testing recent moves, e.g. VLO.


Stats: +14.68 points (+0.29%) to close at 5048.24
Volume: 1.453B (-8.88%)

Up Volume: 815.69M (+99.21M)
Down Volume: 633.29M (-270.56M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.53 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.28 to 1

New Highs: 60 (+11)
New Lows: 108 (+24)

Stats: +8.15 points (+0.39%) to close at 2091.54
NYSE Volume: 671.6M (-12.61%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.15 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.51 to 1

New Highs: 49 (-12)
New Lows: 105 (-17)

Stats: +69.15 points (+0.4%) to close at 17477.4


VIX: 12.83; -0.66
VXN: 16.41; -0.54
VXO: 13.93; -0.92

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.01; +0.05

Recent history: 1 over, 1 below, 5 over to 4 under the past 9 sessions. Pretty even as it was before: 3 below, 3 over, 8 below, 11 above. The 11 above helped bounce the last move upside.

Bulls and Bears: Actually converging, the closest in 9 months but still miles apart. Bulls are slowly trending lower, bears are just now starting to trend higher after months and months at the 12 to 15 level.

Bulls: 40.2% versus 42.2% versus 43.3% versus 49.0%

Bears: 18.6% versus 17.5% versus 17.5% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.6%

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.

Bulls: 40.2%
42.2% versus 43.3% versus 49.0% versus 43.7% versus 44.8% versus 49.5% versus 51.6% versus 45.5% versus 47.4% versus 51.5% versus 47.5% versus 51.5% versus 48.5%

Background: Last undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June 2012.

Bears: 18.6%
17.5% versus 17.5% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.4% versus 15.4% versus 16.5% versus 16.5% versus 15.8% versus 14.9% versus 15.8% versus 13.9%

Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Right now bulls are coming back down from the 60 level that has consistently marked market tops over the past two years. The rapid decline in progress is pushing the bulls/bears lines toward one another. Still far from a cross with bulls falling faster than bears are rising, but bears are warming up to the notion of market weakness.


Bonds (10 year): 2.20% versus 2.19%. Rallied to midweek, hit the 200 day SMA, faded to test the 10 day EMA to close the week. Important level in this five week move off the lows.

Historical: 2.19% versus 2.15% versus 2.14% versus 2.24% versus 2.17% versus 2.27% versus 2.15% versus 2.19% versus 2.29% versus 2.25% versus 2.23% versus 2.27% versus 2.27% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.37% versus 2.34% versus 2.35% versus 2.35% versus 2.40% versus 2.44% versus 2.42% versus 2.31% versus 2.206% versus 2.26% versus 2.29% versus 2.38% versus 2.42% versus 2.34% versus 2.364% versus 2.48% versus 2.40% versus 2.37% versus 2.40% versus 2.36% versus 2.26% versus 2.35% versus 2.32% versus 2.32% versus 2.36% versus 2.39% versus 2.39% versus 2.48%

Euro/$: 1.1110 versus 1.1154. Dollar faded on the week but after the pair hit the 200 day SMA, the dollar firmed a bit.

Historical: 1.1154 versus 1.1165 versus 1.10448 versus 1.0966 versus 1.0906 versus 1.0953 versus 1.0978 versus 1.0936 versus 1.0983 versus 1.1058 versus 1.1092 versus 1.0977 versus 1.0992 versus 1.0927 versus 1.0944 versus 1.0927 versus 1.0825 versus 1.0836 versus 1.0880 versus 1.0946 versus 1.1005 versus 1.0999 versus 1.1157 versus 1.1032 versus 1.11069 versus 1.1099 versus 1.1055 versus 1.1082 versus 1.1054 versus 1.1131 versus 1.1243 versus 1.1205

$/JPY: 124.32 versus 124.41. Rallied into Tuesday then stalled, holding the 20 day EMA to end the week, just below the June highs.

Historical: 124.41 versus 124.15 versus 125.08 versus 124.36 versus 124.74 versus 124.78 versus 124.31 versus 123.99 versus 123.89 versus 124.15 versus 123.99 versus 123.56 versus 123.26 versus 123.79 versus 123.89 versus 123.96 versus 123.88 versus 124.31 versus 124.07 versus 124.13 versus 123.78 versus 123.38 versus 123.42 versus 122.76 versus 121.29 versus 120.66 versus 122.46 versus 122.51 versus 123.04 versus 123.115 versus 122.43 versus 122.497 versus 123.82 versus 123.63 versus 123.88 versus 123.69 versus 123.37 versus 122.66

Oil: 42.74, +0.51. Modest bounce to end the week after a straight line decline below the 10 day EMA in July. No trend change, still very weak.

Gold: 1113.20, -2.40. Rallied nicely on the week but stalled Thursday and Friday, testing the move, holding over the 20 day EMA. Still lots of resistance overhead, but if the feeling is the Fed is on hold, gold has some breathing room.


The Market Summary section pretty much laid it out. SP500, SP400, and NASDAQ are in near term bullish patterns, and there is enough leadership near term to bounce them back near the prior SP500 highs. From there perhaps a higher high, or not. After that, our view is still the stock market indices are in overall topping patterns, setting up for a bigger decline to consolidate the last moves and perhaps beg for some Fed QE. Hey, it has worked before and it is hard to teach an old dog new tricks as the clich goes.

We intend to continue playing that upside move, though as you know our active positions in terms of positions we are holding are very reduced in number. We have spotted some good vehicles to ride a move back upside, and many are not the traditional ones we have played but are from retail, industrial, drugs. We are also looking at some downside, but of course after this selling would prefer this bounce up to the old highs to really set up some nice downside entries in the event the rally stalls as expected.

This market has consistently turned these kind of selloffs into money making entries and we are willing to commit some more money to that proposition if the upside resumes, knowing full well, of course, that the move could end as the prior peaks. Going in with eyes wide open as it were.

That said, some of these stocks are in sectors and patterns that can yield continued moves despite wherever the indices top out the move. Not counting on it, but recognizing the patterns and the sectors that have held up well during the selling bouts.

As you can tell from the discussion of the economic and policy situation, from the market pattern discussion, and the leadership issues, things are pretty basic right now. I lamented being able to just write about the market, but you know as well as I do, despite the outside influences that exert pressure on stocks and can in the near term influence their action, the same market actions still apply and still occur time and time again. Thus while it is a pain in the rear to each day hear some Fed official setting up his/her post-Fed speaking circuit, book tour, cushy job with a Wall Street firm, or all of the above, the statements have a rather transient effect before the market trends again take over.

Thus as always we watch the patterns, watch the leaders, watch the plays that set up, and make the plays when they flash the moves. Sure some have made breaks then gave them up, but most are not doing that. Thus when they flash the 'buy me' signal we pick some up and take what is given. If the market is going to make a move on those prior highs we should find out this week. If it takes longer than that, well, that speaks to the indecision in the overall pattern does it not?

Have a great weekend!


NASDAQ: Closed at 5048.24

The 50 day EMA at 5072
The lower trendline is at 5110
5120 is the April 2015 post-bear market high
5132.52 is the 3/2000 all-time high
5150-5160 is the June peak range
5164 is the June prior all-time high
5232 is the July 2015 all-time high.

5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
The June low at 4974
4912 the mid-April China dip
The 200 day SMA at 4904
The March lows at 4843 and 4825
4815 is the December 2014 prior market peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4631 is the October 2014 upside gap point
4610 is the September 2014 post-bear market high.
4566 is the lower gap point from late October
4563 and 4567 are the January lows
4547 is the December low

S&P 500: Closed at 2091.54

2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2095
The lower channel line at 2100
2115 is the late March lower high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high

2079 is the intraday all-time high from November
2076 is the all-time high from November
The 200 day SMA at 2076
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July closing low
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1991 is the July 2014 high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1883.57 is the early March high.
The December and January highs at 1848
The April 2014 low at 1814
1808 is the November and December 2013 twin peaks
1775.22 is the October prior all-time high

Dow: Closed at 17,477.40

17,515 is the early July closing low
17,585 to 17,579, the March intraday lows, helping mark the bottom of the Dow's The February to present trading range.
June low at 17,715
The March low at 17,718
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
The 50 day EMA at 17,735
The 200 day SMA at 17,822
17,923 is the January 2015 lower high
17,991 is the early December intraday high
18,104 is the December high
18,200 to 18,206 (late March lower high)
18,289 is the March 2015 high, the prior all-time high
18,351 is the May 2015 all-time high

17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,736 is the penultimate all-time high from May 2014
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak


August 14 - Friday
PPI, July (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Core PPI, July (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Industrial Production, July (9:15): 0.6% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Capacity Utilization, July (9:15): 78.0% actual versus 78.0% expected, 77.7% prior (revised from 77.8%)
Michigan Sentiment, August (10:00): 92.9 actual versus 93.7 expected, 93.1 prior

August 17 - Monday
Empire Manufacturing, August (8:30): 5.0 expected, 3.9 prior
NAHB Housing Market , August (10:00): 61.0 expected, 60 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (16:00): $93.0B prior

August 18 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, July (8:30): 1200K expected, 1174K prior
Building Permits, July (8:30): 1257K expected, 1343K prior

August 19 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 08/15 (7:00): 0.1% prior
CPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 08/15 (10:30): -1.682M prior
FOMC Minutes, 7/29 (14:00)

August 20 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/15 (8:30): 272K expected, 274K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/08 (8:30): 2265K expected, 2273K prior
Existing Home Sales, July (10:00): 5.42M expected, 5.49M prior
Philadelphia Fed, August (10:00): 7.0 expected, 5.7 prior
Leading Indicators, July (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.6% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 08/15 (10:30): 65 bcf prior

End part 1 of 3
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