- Stocks pause Friday, reflect on gains, economics, ahead of earnings season.
- Small and midcaps slow their leadership move, contemplate their rise and massive margin requirement increases.
- Economics and US markets: who is more important, China or US?
- So this is our recovery: jobless claims spike to end the year, layoffs again on the rise.
- Hard to blame Bush so find something else: Sandy, Fiscal Cliff, and . . . the flu?
- Q4 GDP revisions slashed by everyone. Poor iPhone 5 even gets the blame.
- Goldman economic momentum chart setting up just as in 2012 and 2011.
- Spain joins the list of those proving higher taxes lower output.
- Stock mutual fund inflows second largest on record. Turning away from bonds or is this already suggesting a top?
- Despite the issues, stocks remain in very good position to continue higher. Still factoring in $85B/month?
Quiet end to a decent week as investors get their arms around all of the news.
With debates raging about end runs around the Constitution on the debt ceiling and the second amendment and a very backend loaded week in terms of market impacting data, it is easy to see why investors took a timeout Friday to try and get a handle on just what is going on. The fact that earnings season starts in earnest toward the end of the coming week was all the more reason to throttle back and try to get a better look at what is on the road up ahead.
Small and midcaps rethinking their gains?
A good move early in the week saw some shifts as it drew to a close. Small and midcaps are the clear leaders of this rally. As discussed before, not so much due to a belief that the economy is going to surge (after all, small business sentiment is negative for the next six months as NFIB reported Tuesday) but more of a January effect where funds buy them because they can produce bigger percentage gains. With Interactive Brokers raising margin requirements to 100% for buys of stocks with market caps of $250M or less, however, their leadership slipped to end the week with large cap indices performing better Thursday and arguably Friday. That begs the question: if small and midcaps slow, will the larger caps take their place?
China expanding again? Will it make as big a difference?
That question likely depends upon the economics of China, even more so than the US. Much was made last week and also the prior week about China's recovery. It is always a crapshoot believing what China says. Communist governments are, despite what many want to believe, not trustworthy. Seems we have forgotten in a short span of history how terrible they are. So the debate is always about whether you can trust the data. Export data is verifiable, however, and Thursday China reported a large jump to 31.6B versus the 20.1B expected, up 14% year/year. Along with the Shanghai 17% stock rally the past 5 weeks that reversed off a new selling low on this leg, this is evidence that things are improving in China.
It is said that as China goes we all go. True, China sucks up a lot of resources and equipment to manipulate those resources. The big factor in the future, however, is whether the Chinese people start to consume their wealth. That is how the rest of the world will benefit, i.e. as exporters to China. Sadly, we have WILLINGLY converted our economy under this administration to one that is a seller to a growth country versus being a growth country as we once were. We have conceded we are European, a supplier to those who make the wealth.
I said early on in the Obama administration that this was the obvious conclusion from the economic steps we were taking. He SAID he wanted us to be an exporter nation, as if that was a great thing. The US has always made its own wake. We consumed a lot, we created a lot, we drove technology. Countries lined up to sell us goods. Now we are one of those lining up to sell goods to growth countries such as China, India, and Brazil.
If you are not in the lead on technology and trying to grow it, you will not create the plum jobs. Look at what we are doing: funding old technology in windmills, trains, and in solar panels that are made the same way they were, basically, 20 years ago.
Tilting at the wrong things?
We cannot compete with China labor in making the same old solar panels. We have to be at the next level, creating the BREAKTHROUGH solar or hydrogen technology, not trying to out-produce China at making old products.
Our most heralded company now focuses on making a cell phone a bit better. Old technology as well. Phones have gone from bulky to minute, and are now expanding in size again, trending toward the tablets.
It is not new technology really for the devices, just better manufacturing. The real technology driving it? The wireless networks: as they get better they can provide more data for the devices. Without the wireless the devices don't matter. The IRONY is, the US is BEHIND the rest of the world in cell technology and has been for years. Call it the FCC.
We are no longer as focused on creating the next technologies, but instead are gearing up (or should that be gearing down) to produce goods for those countries that are going to create the next major breakthroughs. It doesn't have to be this way, but under this group of leaders and with the massive debts we have accumulated, it is FORCING us down this road.
So, the question asked in the above headlines, is it China or the US economy that matters more, sadly is China as a result of the current leadership's intent or incompetence placing servicing China's economy or competing in areas we cannot and should not compete above our economy leading the world as it has always done.
Despite claims of ongoing economic recovery, six years out from the start of this depression our economy is in real trouble. President Obama likes to compare himself to Reagan and Lincoln. I hate to be accused of being too negative again, but there is no morning in America. 11 score and 17 years since our founding we have not found another Lincoln, and Reagan's ideals are quickly fading.
Win one for the gipper, will you boys?
The Action Friday.
Futures were flat and sluggish, but that allows the buyers an opening if they want it. Friday they didn't want it. With small and midcaps undecided bids were scarce and a flat open turned into some early selling. Stocks bottomed, however, after the first hour and managed a slow, steady, slow recovery to the close. The large cap indices fared better as they had on Thursday, but nothing was lighting up the scoreboard though you could say SOX sank a few shots with a half percent gain.
SP500 -0.07, -0.0%
NASD 3.87, 0.12%
DJ30 17.21, 0.13%
Dollar 1.3366 versus 1.3252 euro. A day after the ECB decided to leave rates unchanged the dollar was crushed. After bouncing up to the 200 day SMA and trying to bounce a higher low off the 50 day EMA, the greenback gapped sharply lower. Did the ECB get the drop on the Fed? Remember, I said earlier this week the US should RAISE rates now. China's stronger economy diminished its likelihood of stimulus, Europe is not cutting, and that leaves the US to just start talking about higher rates. It started that with the FOMC minutes, but it is a long, long, long way from any change in policy. Thus with a weakening US economy once more (jobless claims, layoffs, GDP going to be lower), the dollar has but one way to go.
Bonds. 1.87% 10 year versus 1.89%. Rallied back a bit more after the butt-kicking it received two weeks back. The idea was the Fed would have to raise rates or more likely back off its QE. The crappy US economic numbers and the slew of GDP downgrades Friday changed that outlook just a bit.
Gold. 1660.40, -17.60. After a great break back above the 200 day SMA Thursday the dollar was up to its old tricks, fading back below that important level Friday. Not a collapse but more of the same indecision and weakness at a key level. Still in the pattern, however, and that keeps it in good position to rise.
Oil. $93.56, -0.26. No real movement but a bit more volatile. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and recovered most of the decline. The action kept oil in its lateral move the past two weeks after breaking back above the 200 day SMA. REMARKABLY inelastic to the supply builds as it holds its break over a key level.
Economic data pointing to another disappointing flop into summer?
Jobless claims are on the high side of 400K for the past four weeks. Layoffs are being announced with new vigor as FDX cans 5K, NYT drops 700, DIS says it is looking at layoffs, Boeing is cutting some and looking at others.
Other numbers are not as easy to read, mainly because they are so distorted by either unprecedented uncertainty in what is going on making the adjustments wild stabs in the dark or flat out intentional skewing in an attempt to bolster confidence.
We have tried our best to report the 'real' numbers, pointing out the strange occurrences when a negative retail sales number is adjusted to positive or when the actual jobs created is negative or a fraction of the final adjustment. That can happen, but when the adjustments are factors of 10 from the same month in prior years or are suddenly positive this year when negative for the same month for a decade, confidence in the numbers declines.
Confidence declines. We know how small and midcap stocks have led the rally through the first half of last week. At the same time the NFIB small business confidence survey still sags, showing businesses with no faith in the next six months. They are not engaged in capital investment, not just small caps but ALL caps, and without that, there are no new jobs.
The real data, even as the monthly reports improve, just prompted a raft of downgrades to the US Q4 GDP.
Goldman is the high water mark still: 1.3% from 1.8%
JPM: 0.8% from 1.5%
Royal Banc Scotland: 0.7% from 1.5%
Nomura: 1.3% from 2%
Who, or more accurately at this point, what, do you blame?
The blame? Take your pick. I know, I know, everyone automatically, in jest or not, says 'Bush.' Well, normally you would be right, but after four years it is getting harder for even that old theme to hold up. After all, it did its job and got the President through the election. Now he needs a new shtick.
So, you find the first disaster that comes along. Nature helps with Sandy that is credited for ruining October (of course it hit with just a couple of days left in the month) and all of November. Never mind the surge in sales ahead of the storm on the entire Eastern seaboard and the massive cleanup afterward that is employing thousands. I know this story. I have seen it many times. After Ike people from all over the country descend to get some work. Now even more so given the horrid economic times. They are called derogatory names, e.g. carpetbaggers, storm chasers, etc., but they are simply seeking work where it is available. They manage to find jobs, help alleviate the carnage, and add to the economy. So blame Sandy? Really? In ALL past storms they always say there is a boom afterward that more than negates any adverse impacts. I dare say that has at least happened here. But, we are finding scapegoats here. I know, before you say Bush again get over it; even the administration is looking elsewhere.
Second, there was the Fiscal Cliff; that has to be good for at least December. I mean no one apparently did business in Q4 if you hear the stories reported. There was a slowdown but it was not a screeching halt. Retail sales were hit. Toys 'r' Us reported that December US sales were down 1.9% versus +1.2% in 2011. International sales fell 4.1% versus a rise of 5.1% in 2011.
Friday Joe LaVorgna of Deutsche Bank proclaimed it was the iPhone 5 that stole Christmas. Recall the JPM analyst who said the iPhone 5 would boost US GDP by 0.5% during the quarter? Well Mr. LaVorgna is saying that IMPORTS of iPhone 5's from where they are made in China worked to lower GDP because imports are subtracted from GDP. But don't worry, we are all so much more productive because of the iPhone 5, right? That of course is sarcasm, harkening back to the argument about so little being invented that would ADD to our rise in economic power; as noted above, most of what we have 'invented' in the past 10 years has been game boxes, music devices, and variations of the cell phone. Oh, yes, wind turbines; gee those haven't been around for . . . centuries.
Third, we have January's numbers that are expected to degrade. The blame for the January is already circulating: the flu.
CNBC and others are reporting that the darn flu could hamper the economy yet further. Six years out from the start of this depression and the economy is so weak we are blaming the flu? How many times have we had serious flu epidemics in the US and it was not even a pimple on the economy? Maybe because this is such a PATHETIC excuse for a recovery that they are saying something such as the flu could mess with its junk.
Of course the hysteria is ramping. I may live to eat these words, but comparing this to the 1918 Spanish influenza outbreak in WW1 is a bit absurd at that point. 100 million people worldwide died from that outbreak spawned in large part due to the war concentrating so many people in such deplorable conditions. I know times are bad, but really?
Think of it this way: the typical flu season peaks in late January or early February. It is now January 12. This one started five weeks early and by November was already severe and widespread in the South and Southeast. Yet we didn't hear about it until the past couple of weeks. Caught napping? Not as bad as reported, but very worthy of making into an excuse? At this point folks, I don't know if anyone with an inquisitive mind can take without question anything the government is saying.
So there you have it. A triumvirate (or a quad if you include the iPhone 5) of non-Bush factors found to explain the hideous economy we face. The truth of the matter: bad fiscal policies, bad monetary policies, overregulation, big government, anti-free enterprise, and anti-entrepreneur policies and actions continue to keep us mired in this depression.
Don't forget your taxes. France, the UK, and now Spain won't.
Oh yes, and don't forget the taxes set to hit soon. New Obama taxes are already here. Pelosi, Reid, and Obama all say that taxes will have to be raised again as part of the debt ceiling deal. Expect higher taxes on firearms and ammunition.
Goldman has another GDP model out that concludes that 3.5% of 2013 GDP could be wiped out by the recent tax hikes.
Does the Goldman study have any real world relevance? Sure. History is awash with examples of higher taxes stunting growth. But we don't have to go back to ancient times, look at the past few years, indeed, the past few months.
The UK implemented a 10% surtax on the rich. Revenues fell within 6 months. Tax repealed. At least the Brits were smart about it.
France raises taxes on the 'rich.' The 'rich' leave, tax revenues fall. France threatens to take retaliatory action against any that leave with a massive tax. We hear the US is contemplating the same. That is one of the latter stage steps of tyranny: cut off the retreat people want to take after your policies drain their wealth and their desire to stay.
Now it is Spain's turn. Spain passed an additional 3% VAT increase in September 2012. It just reported industrial production fell 7.2%, the biggest decline since 1993.
'Cause and effect my sweet.' The Frenchman from the Matrix trilogy.
The last Goldman study.
You can see that the hits/misses on economic reports and the absolute numbers are set up exactly as they have been the prior two years. Maybe this time is different. Maybe the new Treasury head and the Fed can figure it out. But . . . back in the 1990's when we had the budget surpluses, it was because of no spending coupled with the huge economic boom that continued because of a reduction in the capital gains tax even as marginal rates were raised that led to those surpluses. We don't have a boom thanks to current policies and we don't have big spending reductions. What is the secret plan to end the malaise?
Stats: +3.87 points (+0.12%) to close at 3125.63
Volume: 1.752B (+1.15%)
Up Volume: 1.18B (-40M)
Down Volume: 545.39M (+21.42M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.03 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.38 to 1
New Highs: 142 (-30)
New Lows: 12 (0)
Stats: -0.07 points (0%) to close at 1472.05
NYSE Volume: 572M (-11.86%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.05 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.07 to 1
New Highs: 359 (-108)
New Lows: 40 (-9)
Stats: +17.21 points (+0.13%) to close at 13488.43
SP500. After a nice Wednesday and very good Thursday, the large caps paused as the entire market tried to digest all of the news hitting right before the weekend. Given the uncertainty, that they closed upside shows there is still upside bias. A new closing high for the SP500 post-bear market and a good initial break after the lateral consolidation that tested the prior high.
NASDAQ. Gapped lower but recovered to flat on Friday, holding the Thursday break from the lateral consolidation. NASDAQ is still below the October and September highs. Techs improved but are not surging to the leader board.
Russell 2000/SP400. Edged higher all week with good Wednesday and even Thursday moves. Large caps caught up on Thursday, however, and on Friday the small caps lagged by just a bit.
SP400 midcaps rallied Wednesday and again Thursday but the other indices matched its move. Friday was a standstill session, sizing up the new margin requirements and all the other news. Solid, trending higher, but a bit indecisive right now.
SOX. The leader Thursday and Friday with a gap and then a run. About 5 points off the August and September highs (408 intraday, closed at 395). Coming to life a bit.
DJ30/DJ20. Nice end to the back half of the week as the Dow came off the 10 day EMA and hit a new rally high. 13,600 is next real resistance and slowly working its way there.
DJ20. Doji after a strong two weeks to the upside. A bit of rest would be, as they say, normal.
Summary: Slowed at the end of the week trying to digest all of the late-hitting news. Small and midcaps are reacting to increased margin requirements and the possibility of perhaps more brokers doing the same. No fade, just slowed down and the large caps caught up. Broke higher after the week of lateral movement, but not convincing. Overall, however, the upside bias remains because even with indecision Friday the market held its gains.
Big names. AMZN is solid, consolidating its big move. EBAY is consolidating nicely ahead of its Wednesday earnings. GOOG rested but it has steadily moved higher. AAPL is trying to put in a higher low at 520.
Financial. Good week for most then taking Friday off. JPM looked great. C is holding the 10 day EMA as it trends steadily higher.
Retail. Struggling across the board as ANN broke down and PNRA was hit. CHS fell from its consolidation. Not all are down but most. PII is still strong, rallying 1.2% Friday. Very problematical post-Christmas.
Technology. A good week with CTXS, STX, SNDK, ATML and others sporting solid moves. Not out in front as a group but some key names are performing very well for us.
Drugs. Very interesting as money started to flow their way. ARNA remains very intriguing. SRPT is setting up again.
VIX: 13.36; -0.13
VXN: 15.87; -0.21
VXO: 13.32; +0.03
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.72; -0.06
Bulls versus Bears
Bulls: 51.1% versus 47.8% versus 46.8% versus 45.7% versus 43.6% versus 39.3% versus 37.2% versus 38.3% versus 43.6 versus 41.5% versus 45.7% . On the run and heading toward that September peak that preceded a market decline. Still quite similar to the pattern in September when the market started a two month selloff, so bears watching. Background: Undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June. As noted, hit 34% in early June. It did its job and the market is on the rally. Hard drop to 34 from 39.3% as economic reality and a choppy stock market hit. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 23.4% versus 24.5% versus 24.5% versus 23.4% versus 25.5% versus 27.7% versus 27.7% versus 28.7% versus 27.7% versus 27.7% versus 25.5%. Fading but not cutting into new ground on the downside, matching the low set four weeks back. As with the bulls, it bears watching. Over 35% is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
One of the key areas to watch this week are the RUTX and the SP400. They backed off to end last week and how they respond will tell of their character. A normal test is fine. We will watch.
Other areas: technology has improved as noted. If it continues, solid. Drugs are also interesting; money started their way and watch to see if it continues.
Earnings. The early batch is of course mixed, but they are showing some top line revenues beats that were missing in Q3. That is encouraging. That said, however, many are expecting a disappointing season.
Money always talks. This past week bond flows started to lose money and stock mutual funds, domestic and international, saw big inflows. $4B into domestic, $3.6B into international. A very good, big week.
The bond grip on funds may be cracking and investors are looking, likely belatedly, at stocks. Stocks are at new post-bear market highs in terms of SP500 and the small and midcap indices and NOW retail is coming around?
Often is the case that when the retail investor gets committed, the top is in. It will, however, take awhile for the retail investor to shift from bonds to stocks and the influx of new money will help maintain an upside market bid as it occurs.
There is also the notion that all that money kept bonds running much longer than many smart people thought. Bill Gross' funds lost millions and millions because he bet the bond run was over, but that money just kept pushing it higher and higher.
Thus, even if the switch does ultimately mark the top of this stock rally, it could take months for that to manifest in a reversal and the market can rally nicely higher in the interim.
Thus we could see more of the 'normal' action of late, i.e. a bid to stocks that at times ebbs on the news, but returns when it senses the timing is right. Earnings may provide the catalyst to take some gains back; stocks have rallied nicely ahead of them. After that, however, with the Fed's $85B/month and a stream of money out of bond funds, there would be quite the upside impetus remaining to push stocks higher again.
In addition, stocks remain in very good position with more patterns setting up to move higher. The problem: earnings. Patterns can set up nicely but then if the market gets wind that the gist of the season will be misses or disappointments whether top line misses or some other issue, it could take those patterns and sell them and then set back up.
Thus we are still picking stocks for plays that have earnings far enough out to make money before the announcement or have already announced. More of the latter will of course emerge over the next few weeks and frankly we prefer playing them after earnings as the news has hit and the stocks have made the initial move that we can then play off of with much better risk/reward probabilities for us.
Lots of sub-currents flowing to end the week and more are ahead. With good setups, however, we like what it is showing. We will watch earnings reports for the plays, managing the positions ahead of time to take some gain, pare down, or otherwise limit exposure if we have not already taken some off the table.
Support and resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 3125.64
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3171 is the October intraday high
3197 is the September 2012 post-bear market high
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low
3104-3112 from August and mid-October peaks.
3101 is the August 2012 high
3090 is the mid-March interim high
The 10 day EMA at 3088
3076 is the late April 2012 high
3062 is the December 2012 prior peak
The 2011 up trendline at 3050
3042 from 5/2000 low and several other price points
The 50 day EMA at 3029
3024 is the gap point from early May
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
2999 is the bottom of the August 2012 consolidation
The 200 day SMA at 2992
2988 is the July 2012 high
2977 to 2980 is the bottom of the late October 2012 consolidation, July 2012 peak
2962 is the April 2012 low
2950 is the mid-April closing low
2942 is the mid-June 2012 high
2900 is the March 2012 intraday low
2858 is the late July 2011 peak
2847 is the mid-May 2012 low
2838 from the July 2012 lows
S&P 500: Closed at 1472.05
1471 is the October 2012 intraday high
1475 is the September 2012 high
1499 from January 2008
1539 from June 2007
1466 is the September 2012 closing peak and rally closing high
The 10 day EMA at 1457
1441 is a short term down TL from the September 2012 peak
1440 from November 2007 closing lows
1434 from early November 2012
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
The 50 day EMA at 1429
1427 is the August 2012 peak
1425 from May 2008 closing highs and the October 2012 low
1408 is the late October 2012 range closing low
1406 is the early May 2012 peak
1402.22 - 1400 is the closing low of the August 2012 lateral consolidation
The 200 day SMA at 1393
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1375 is the early July 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1363.46 is June 2012 high
1359 is the April 2012 low
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
Dow: Closed at 13,488.43
13,557 to 13,662
13,653 is the September 2012 high
13662 is the October 2012 intraday high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak
13,413 from the late September 2012 low
The 10 day EMA at 13,363
13,300 to 13,331 is the August 2012 post-bear market high
13,297 is the April 2012, prior post bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 13,194
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,056 is the February 2012 high
The 200 day SMA at 13,024
12,716 is the April 2012 closing low
12,524 is a range of support from early 2012 and summertime 2012
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,369 is the left shoulder low from May 2012
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
12,035 is the June 2012 base low
The June 2011 low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
January 8 - Tuesday
Consumer Credit, November (15:00): $16.0B actual versus $10.6B expected, $14.1B prior (revised from $14.2B)
January 9 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/05 (7:00): 11.7% actual versus -10.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/05 (10:30): 1.314M actual versus -11.1M prior
January 10 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/05 (8:30): 371K actual versus 364K expected, 367K prior (revised from 372K)
Continuing Claims, 12/29 (8:30): 3109K actual versus 3200K expected, 3236K prior (revised from 3245K)
Wholesale Inventories, November (10:00): 0.6% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.6%)
Natural Gas Inventories, 01/05 (10:30): -189 BCF actual versus -135BCF prior
January 11 - Friday
Trade Balance, November (8:30): -$48.7B actual versus -$41.8B expected, -$42.1B prior (revised from -$42.2B)
Export Prices ex-ag., December (8:30): -0.2% actual versus -0.8% prior (revised from -0.7%)
Import Prices ex-oil, December (8:30): -0.1% actual versus -0.2% prior
Treasury Budget, December (14:00): -$0.3B actual versus -$1.0B expected, -$86.0B prior
January 15 - Tuesday
Retail Sales, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, December (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.0% prior
PPI, December (8:30): 0.0% expected, -0.8% prior
Core PPI, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Empire Manufacturing, January (8:30): 2.0 expected, -8.1 prior
Business Inventories, November (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
January 16 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/12 (7:00): 11.7% prior
CPI, December (8:30): 0.0% expected, -0.3% prior
Core CPI, December (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, November (9:00): $1.3B prior
Industrial Production, December (9:15): 0.2% expected, 1.1% prior
Capacity Utilization, December (9:15): 78.5% expected, 78.4% prior
NAHB Housing Market , January (10:00): 48 expected, 47 prior
Crude Inventories, 01/12 (10:30): 1.314M prior
January 17 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/12 (8:30): 370K expected, 371K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/05 (8:30): 3100K expected, 3109K prior
Housing Starts, December (8:30): 889K expected, 861K prior
Building Permits, December (8:30): 905K expected, 899K prior
Philadelphia Fed, January (10:00): 5.2 expected, 4.6 prior (revised from 8.1)
Natural Gas Inventories, 01/12 (10:30): -189 BCF prior
January 18 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, January (9:55): 75.0 expected, 72.9 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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