- Stocks start lower but ECB, Bernanke pull another Friday rescue.
- Bernanke says the Fed has scope.
- Durable Goods Orders surge on aircraft, dive on everything else.
- Obama-Side Economics: Incomes are now lower in the recovery than they were in the recession.
- Missing the obvious because clinging to hope.
- Indices bounce where they had to but with Jackson Hole on Friday, stocks may just bide time.
- At these levels, despite still overall good technical action, the risk/reward is just not what it was for the upside.
Bernanke sees 'scope for further action,' and the indices use his scope to rally back.
Stocks were lower for the fourth session as the indecision at the prior post-bear market highs continued weighing on investors and traders. Indeed, the sellers took control on Tuesday and continued to push stocks lower Friday. Modest declines but yet another day of red numbers.
Then the ECB said it was outlining a bond buying plan of action, this even after Draghi said the ECB had to wait for a German court ruling on the ESM before it could formulate a bond plan. While the statements from Europe are enough to leave any sane person scratching his or her head (or other body parts of individual preference), they seemed to console the stock markets.
Then the silver bullet was let. Once again the WSJ, via the pen of Mr. Hilsenrath, came to the market's rescue. Third time in just about as many weeks. This time it was from no other than Bernanke himself, speaking in a letter to Daryl Issa, addressing the Fed's use of its monetary policy weapons and perceptions the Fed was a market and political group of hacks (the WSJ published the letter via Hilsenrath). One area of particular concern was the use of further stimulus, if there was anything left for the Fed to use, and the potential impact.
The key line as reported a thousand times Friday: "There is scope for further action by the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions and strengthen the recovery." Now that statement certainly could have been worded more precisely. I am still not sure I understand whether the chairman was playing a massive joke on us all, referring not to the availability of additional stimulus methods but instead to the mouthwash to at least make the situation smell minty fresh.
Now that's minty fresh!
Whatever the meaning, the market liked it. DJ30 was down 30 points on the low. It finished 100 points higher. The indices all reversed, not to big gains, but considering they traded negative o start and then rallied back, it was not bad action.
SP500 9.05, 0.65%
NASDAQ 16.39, 0.54%
DJ30 100.51, 0.77%
SP600 1.55, 0.34%
Now there is no doubt the economy could use some strengthening. This week revealed more data indicating that the economy, if it is heading in the right direction as we are told, is moving in the slowest pace in history. We already know this is the worst recovery since the Great Depression, and the data is not getting better.
July Durable Goods Orders rose on the strength of Boeing orders. Take them out and it dove negative, 1% from where it was supposed to be. Further, we know that the July figure will be gutted this next month because Qantas cut a huge order for Dreamliners. So much for transports pulling us through.
Durable Orders, July (8:30): 4.2% actual versus 2.5% expected, 1.6% prior (revised from 1.3%)
Durable Orders -ex Transports, July (8:30): -0.4% actual versus 0.6% expected, -2.2% prior (revised from -1.4%)
Business orders: -3.4% versus -0.2% expected, -2.7% prior (revised lower from -1.4%)
Look at the ex-transports number: up from June, but still negative. Business orders diving much more than anticipated and roaring past a downwardly revised June number. Investment has fallen off the table of late as reported last night when discussing the commercial real estate market.
What is equally if not more disturbing: we learned that since the Obama recovery began in 2009 (and I use recovery only as the popular media is using it), incomes are 4.8% lower than they were BEFORE the recovery started. During the recession itself incomes only fell 2.6%! 800,000 more people are classified as long term unemployed than when the recession supposedly ended. 85% of the middle class say it is harder to maintain their standard of living than it was 10 years ago.
That poses the question: if a recovery leaves US citizens worse off in terms of earning power than they had during the recession, is it really a recovery?
Recovery turning over or is it simply that a recovery requires a turning back to free market, limited government principals that made the US great?
Indeed, this absurdly backward outcome from the past 3.5 year's economic policies shows just how flawed the Obama approach was and still is: it put money into the banks (0% interest loans), large corporations (GM, GE) and friends of the Administration (Solyendra, etc.), but the majority of taxpaying citizens who footed that bill got no jobs, and those who did received less money. Ah, that 'job quality' I discussed in the spring, just ahead of this the third summer of recovery.
$900B in the first round of Keynesian stimulus. Still 14M+ unemployed, still negative in terms of net jobs, and those with jobs bring home less money.
The Obama-side economics apologists lambast 'trickle down' economics, but when that was tried under Reagan and Clinton it worked because it was much more than trickle: tens of millions of jobs created, new technologies, higher standard of living across the board. The Obama-side economic plan saw NO flow, trickle, or otherwise to the lower levels. Indeed, based upon the wages numbers, it TOOK money from the workers and put it into the large corporations, the EXACT thing the Administration and the Occupiers supposedly decry.
So, despite the truly idiotic parrots who call themselves analysts on the financial stations currently claiming the economic data is too strong for more stimulus, the facts show that the 'recovery' is hardly that.
INDEED, think about this: the government statistics, as pointed out here the past few months, are so deviant from the reality of low to no job creation, wage declines, negative manufacturing reports, and negative durables orders, does it not make sense that we are ALREADY in recession and the analysts are simply in denial? The data overwhelmingly shows we have slowed and slowed sharply this summer. In denying the obvious and trying to point out the few inconsistent and indeed fabricated positives as proof of economic recovery, these people are showing their lack of basic pragmatism when looking at economic data. I say we are already in recession now.
Dollar. 1.2511 versus 1.2562 euro. The dollar was up versus the euro but down against everything else. It surged at one point. The ECB news helped it rally to the upside. It goes up when the ECB says it will do something. That makes sense, of course, given that the ECB would be eviscerating its currency for once, and that would make ours stronger. But when Bernanke said there was still scope, the dollar fell right back down. It remains in its rounded top with a potential head and shoulders. A shoulder and a head are in place right now.
Bonds. 1.68% versus 1.67% 10 year US Treasury. Bonds closed flat. They gapped higher, reversed and lost a little bit of ground. It has been a strong run on the week given the economic data and the commentary out of the Fed. A nice, big run to the upside off of a double bottom at the 200 day EMA. It is still a toppish pattern right now, and it is bumping up against resistance and fading. We will see what happens as bonds continue trying to run back and recover some of that lost ground. They have some serious resistance to deal with at this level in terms of gaps and other consolidations.
Gold. 1672.30, -0.50. Gold was flat for a change. Gold has been streaking to the upside, looking very strong. It just had to take a pause after that strong rally this week. A lot of talk from the Fed, a lot of talk from the ECB, and then gold was right back in the game. It has been higher anyway before this talk, and then it made a serious break up through the 200 day EMA on the week. That also took it through some important resistance levels. Now it is bumping up against the other highs. It is a tough job getting out of a hole, but it is doing it with the aid of some inflation worries. Despite what a lot of pundits say, more QE appears to be pricing into the various markets.
Oil. 96.15, -0.12. Oil was down a bit on Friday, but it has had a good last couple of weeks. It broke higher, consolidated this week, and still looks to be in position to continue the move to the upside.
Volume. NASDAQ -3%, 1.3B; NYSE -13%, 468M. Meager volume, indeed, as the indices bounced back to the upside. Once more we see more downside volume than upside. It is Friday in late summer, so you have to take some of the volume -- or lack thereof -- into account for that reason. Nonetheless, overall volume could not find many supporters on the way back up.
Breadth. NASDAQ +1.5:1; NYSE +1.86:1. This was after -2:1 on Wednesday. The advance/decline line was decent but nothing to write home about.
SP500. The charts tell the story. After a selloff below the 10 day EMA and down to the 20 day EMA on Thursday, the SP500 tapped that 20 day EMA on the Friday low and recovered. It closed near the session high. Not bad action at all. That was where it needed to hold and put in a bounce. It was not anything stellar, volume was lower. It is still not out of the woods; it just did what it needed to do. As noted, this is pretty good action if you get rid of these and do not factor them into the picture. I do not know you cannot rely do that, but let's just pretend. This is a pretty solid pattern: higher highs, higher lows, a lateral consolidation, a break, a test of it. It looks pretty good. The only thing is when you peel back this cover and see that it is at these old highs. That gets everyone quaking in their boots. It is not a great time of year. The end of August and into September is typically the worst month for the market. Not great news, but it is still a pretty decent pattern overall.
DJ30. Even the Dow recovered, bouncing up through the 20 day EMA.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ gapped below the 10 day EMA that it has very nicely held, and it reversed right back to the upside and closed with a very solid, credible gain on the session. That keeps it right in line with that late-April peak. It is still below the March post-bear market highs, but it is putting in the right moves to advance and make a try at that former high.
SP600. The small caps managed to rebound off of pullback, holding at the 20 day EMA with something of a doji. Not a great move, but it did what it needed to do right at that former peak. It held where it had to, and on Monday we will see if they can continue the move that was ECB-led and then Bernanke-led on Friday.
SOX. SOX had a nice bounce off of the 20 day EMA. Nice test, nice bounce, and it held the old breakout point. It is looking very solid overall and in great shape to continue to the upside.
NASDAQ, SP600, SP500, and the SOX all look great to continue upside. Why won't they? There are many reasons that they would not and many reasons that they would. A lot of the won'ts have to do with the prior highs and just idea that they have run far enough and cannot make the break. I will not necessarily subscribe to that. I did not like the action on the week, but it did not show me that there was a total breakdown. The Dow broke through and gave back its last breakout and run. That is not a positive by any stretch, but the other indices held and bounced. They still remain positive. There is still a bit of leadership out there to propel the stocks higher as well, even though there are some groups such as energy that continued their troubles on Friday.
Energy. Some energy stocks were breaking down. PTEN broke. It did try to recover off of the lows, and it did manage to recover some ground. A lot of the energy has left the energy sector, at least temporarily. We see some good tests, such as APA. It is showing a doji at the 50 day EMA and trying to turn the corner. Even APC has formed a little pennant or triangle of sorts at the 50 day EMA. It might to be able to make a break to the upside as well. We will have to see. It got a bit heavy last week. Maybe it was just a test and they can continue to the upside. We will see if that is the case.
Financial. Financials are starting to come back around again, helping out the rest of the market. BAC looks good with this nice flag pullback to the 10 day EMA. JPM has a nice pullback to the 200 day EMA. Even WFC is trying to hold at the 20 day EMA and put in a bounce. Although it does not look as good as it has in the past, it is still trending to the upside. This is a jumbled trend, however.
Industrial. CAT is trying to hang on at the 50 day EMA. JOY is trying to do the same, right at the 50 day EMA. These will be important tests come next week if they can make the break to the upside.
Retail. Retail continues to perform. RL broke to the upside with a solid gain on the session. KORS broke sharply higher as well. We are seeing these kinds of sharp breaks from apparel. Retail is doing all right. DECK was not screaming higher on Friday, but it held at the 10 day EMA. It has a nifty pullback after a nice initial break of that downtrend that moved through the 50 day EMA and passed that last high.
These stocks are still holding. Retail continues to show that it wants to move higher in anticipation of more sales, even though we learned that citizens just do not have as much money as they used to. The jobs they are working now do not pay as much. Is this the sign of a secular decline in the country? Is it a true change where we no longer advance our standard of living? Where we have to agree to take less money? Why? Because in the government spent it all, so no one else has any money to spend.
It seems like rudimentary economics and finance, but our government has not grasped that. If it spends all the money, we cannot make enough money to repay it because the life is sucked out of the economy and out of our capital investment. But I digress.
There are still areas that can lead the market to the upside. There were some breakdowns on the week, no doubt. Some techs went down, some medical stocks went down. There were some problems, but there are still leaders out there. There are enough to move the market higher; it is just a matter of whether the money comes back in and starts pushing stocks once more.
VIX. The VIX rallied nicely on the week, and a little bit of selling will do that. It bounced back down from the 20 day EMA on Friday given that the market posted a solid recovery. Still, it put in a little double bottom at those prior lows that bounced the VIX higher and the market lower in 2011 and earlier this year. We still have the issue of a potential selloff even though the markets held at near support and bounced on Friday. That was good action to take, but it does not necessarily mean that the indices will continue higher from here. They will need that leadership to come back around and provide, well, more leadership.
VIX: 15.18; -0.78
VXN: 16.6; +1.28
VXO: 14.62; -2.06
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; -0.08
Bulls versus Bears
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 43.6% versus 43.6% versus 39.4%. Wow, talk about lack of care. Bulls, elevate from recent levels mind you, held steady. Makes sense given the lateral move below the prior highs that had so many pundits negative. Undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June. You would expect it to rise and it has. Still not at a dangerous level, just working as it should. As noted, hit 34% in early June. It did its job and the market is on the rally. Hard drop to 34 from 39.3% as economic reality and a choppy stock market hit. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 26.6% versus 25.5% versus 27.7%. Bounced back up to a level from four weeks back. Also makes sense given the lateral move that had many pundits calling for a market rollover. Never made it to the 35% that can be a bullish indication, but the bulls were weak enough back in June. Over 35% is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +16.38 points (+0.54%) to close at 3069.79
Volume: 1.321B (-2.97%)
Up Volume: 863.15M (+474.47M)
Down Volume: 453.76M (-525.15M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.5 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.97 to 1
New Highs: 56 (+20)
New Lows: 33 (-2)
Stats: +9.05 points (+0.65%) to close at 1411.13
NYSE Volume: 468M (-13.22%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.86 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.23 to 1
New Highs: 77 (+18)
New Lows: 13 (-1)
Stats: +100.51 points (+0.77%) to close at 13157.97
Volume: 88M shares Friday versus 108M shares Thursday.
There is a lot more economic data back on the agenda next week. Tuesday Consumer Confidence is the main read. Wednesday the second reading the GDP on the Q2 is out. It is expected to rise to 1.6%. They are lunatics for thinking that. The numbers may show that, but with inventories and the issues we have with exports and other areas, I don't see how that could be. I think it is all a bunch of hogwash right now. I think we are in negative numbers, and we will have revisions in the future that will show historically that we were in a recession.
Pending Home Sales are out. Thursday we have Initial Claims, as always, and then Personal Income and Spending. Very important, particularly in light of the word we got this week that wages are not rising but are actually down. Friday we have the important Chicago PMI. Michigan Sentiment, and Factory Orders. A trio of fairly important data. Sentiment and Confidence (we get that Tuesday) are tied in when there are very strong, long, negative times in the economy. They tend to be more truthful and leading as to what consumers are actually going to do. Versus good times when they always say they will cut back but never do.
We have quite an agenda for the data, but, of course, we still have to look at the technical picture because it will key much of the action. I am talking about SP500 and its test of the 20 day EMA as well as NASDAQ's test of the 10 day EMA and the SP600 holding at the 20 day EMA as well. All of those are important, and if we get a nice break higher, then they get it at least a shot at the prior bear market highs.
There are many analysts out there every day talking about how things are negative and are going down. That makes sense because the economy is so bad and the market has rallied well in a bad economic period. This has all been in anticipation of the Fed and ECB taking action. It cannot be on the economic data because the market is too smart to be fooled by government tinkering of the data. Yes, on a near-term basis it will react positively to the smoke and mirrors, but ultimately it sees through it. Ultimately more data comes in, and the market is always a leading indicator.
The question is, what is the market seeing that makes it go up or down? If it was just the economy, right now this market has been going down for these past two to three months and not going higher. As it is, it sees more stimulus and more liquidity. Not that it will work or that it will save the economy, but for what it can do near term for the market. That is to push it higher with a flush of liquidity that will not be used by anyone (because there are no jobs). Banks will just borrow for 0% and buy foreign bonds, or even our bonds, and get a return off of those. The money will not be put to work.
As reported earlier in the week, velocity is at an all-time low. It is lower than it was in the Great Depression. Velocity is how many times money turns over. It is the old story about the magic penny: "If you hold it tight you will not have any; but lend it, spend it, and you'll have so many they roll all over the floor." Remember that one? That is the velocity. It is how many times a single dollar moves through the economy as a loan, something that is then used to buy something else, and then it is spent on something else. It keeps turning over hands. There is no velocity right now.
Those who are getting the money -- the banks -- are not lending it. They are putting it into safe returns. The big companies made a bunch of money off of that stimulus, and they are not spending it either. They are hoarding it. Revenues are declining, so they will not be spending money on improving capital investment or their businesses. They are hanging on to see what will happen and who will be elected. There is no real spending of money; there is a hoarding of money. If there is more liquidity put into the market, that means it does not go into the economy and is used that way. Instead it goes into financial instruments from the banks or from companies that use it and put it into commodities or other types of investments other than increasing overhead costs. That is why the market likes it: It goes directly into the financial instruments, and that drives them higher.
Talk about ruining a nice view . . .
That is what this rally is based on. There is also the Jackson Hole Conference in Wyoming next week. Bernanke will be there with his cohorts as well as some others from the ECB and elsewhere. They will be discussing the word's economic future and how they can control it -- I mean, how they can help it along in recovery. That will be a point where the markets will look to Bernanke for some kind of guidance. Friday he gave a bit in the letter to Darrell Issa, and he may be giving some more. The fear is that he will not do anything because of that "strong economic data" we have seen of late. True, Bernanke does not want to do anything if he can avoid it. Thus he might put it off next week and wait until later in September. Remember, they said it would be in August or September, and the implication was that it would be at the August or September meeting and not at some point in between or off the cuff.
The market could be disappointed next week if it does not get any news from Mr. Bernanke on Quantitative Easing. It likely will not. It may get a little bone thrown to it, but it will not get a definitive announcement of any Quantitative Easing. It will want to do so with the ECB, perhaps. It says it still has to wait on Germany. Near term there could be an upset in the market. An upset in the market would send it down a bit given that it is bumping up at those prior highs.
We will just watch how the indices interact at this level. We are not totally comfortable with what we are seeing with some stocks breaking lower, but we continue to see stocks move. When you have a stock like RL breaking sharply to the upside again, it is hard to think that everything is totally negative in our economy. If that is the case, as long as these stocks continue to set up, we like what we see. Despite the old highs right overhead, we will not call the top of the market. We will be darn careful here. We will keep our stops up because we have seen stocks breaking down and good patterns cracking under the stress. It is a stressful time in the market because the buyers and the sellers are fighting it out right here at those old highs.
Right now we have a good move to the upside. On what? Hopes of stimulus. This entire rally, as noted before, is about stimulus. So if Jackson Hole does not come out with anything positive, we will get thrown back. We will be very careful with the upside. It is only prudent to be careful right now. Why? Because the risk/rewards are not as great for the market overall because they are bumping right up against highs. RL has a better risk/reward because it has a nice rounded bottom, it broke higher, tested, and now it is breaking higher. It has room to run. That is a different risk scenario, but the entire market is not there. Much of the market is higher than this. Therefore even plays like RL have more risk associated with them merely because the market overall is higher. In quality stocks such as RL, we will put some money to work to the upside. Overall we have to be cautious next week, however. We have to wait for the Jackson Hole commentary. Then we can see the reaction and move in with more plays at that point, upside or downside. We want to be ready for both.
Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech is not until Friday. There will be movement ahead of that. The question is whether we will get any significant movement or if it will be a choppy, lateral trade? We have had a good pullback to the 20 day EMA on SP500. We had a bounce to the upside on low volume, but driven by Bernanke's statements. It could very well move to the upside and continue the run. If it does, that is fantastic and we will let our plays run. I do not think we will get off that easy this week. I think it will be more of a choppy move, bouncing up and down and not really able to break through those highs before Friday. We will wait and see what Bernanke does. Near term, if he does not come through, he could be setting us up for some downside for a little bit of time.
If we do not get much movement before Friday, we are looking at taking some off the table. If we get movement before Friday, then that market is set up for some potential disappointment or a little sell on the news. We may just be taking some of the table on Friday, regardless of what happens. Bernanke is a wild card, and I have my doubts as to whether he will announce anything significant at Jackson Hole versus waiting until the September Fed meeting.
I will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend!
Support and resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 3069.79
3076 is the late April 2012 high
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3101 is the August 2012 high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3026 from 10/2000 low
3024 is the gap point from early May
The 20 day EMA at 3021
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
2999 is the bottom of the August 2012 consolidation
2988 is the July 2012 high
The 50 day EMA at 2970
2962 is the April 2012 low
2950 is the mid-April closing low
2942 is the mid-June 2012 high
2910 is the March 2012 low
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2868
2866 is the July 2012 closing low
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2810 is the low in the shoulders
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
S&P 500: Closed at 1411.13
1422.38 is the prior post-bear market high (March 2012)
1427 is the August 2012 peak
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows
1406 is the early May 2012 peak
1402.22 is the closing low of the August 2012 lateral consolidation
The 20 day EMA at 1399
1378 is the February 2012 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1378
1375 is the early July 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1363.46 is June 2012 high
1359 is the April 2012 low
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1334
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1325 is the July 2012 intraday low
1309 is the right shoulder low from June 2012
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1266 is the June 2012 base low
Dow: Closed at 13,157.97
13,297 is the April 2012, prior post bear market high
13,331 is the August 2012 post-bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak
The 20 day EMA is at 13,111
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,056 is the February 2012 high
12,971 is the early July 2012 high
The 50 day EMA at 12,964
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,716 is the April 2012 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 12,680
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,369 is the left shoulder low from May 2012
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
12,035 is the June 2012 base low
The June 2011 low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
August 21 - Tuesday
FOMC Minutes, 7/31 (14:00)
August 22 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 08/18 (7:00): -7.4% actual versus -4.5% prior
Existing Home Sales, July (10:00): 4.47M actual versus 4.55M expected, 4.37M prior
Crude Inventories, 08/18 (10:30): -5.412M actual versus -3.699M prior
FOMC Minutes, 7/31 (14:00)
August 23 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/18 (8:30): 372K actual versus 365K expected, 368K prior (revised from 366K)
Continuing Claims, 08/11 (8:30): 3317K actual versus 3298K expected, 3313K prior (revised from 3305K)
FHFA Housing Price I, June (10:00): 0.8% prior
New Home Sales, July (10:00): 372K actual versus 368K expected, 359K prior (revised from 350K)
FHFA Housing Price I, June (10:00): 0.7% actual versus 0.6% prior (revised from 0.8%)
August 24 - Friday
Durable Orders, July (8:30): 4.2% actual versus 2.5% expected, 1.6% prior (revised from 1.3%)
Durable Orders -ex Transports, July (8:30): -0.4% actual versus 0.6% expected, -2.2% prior (revised from -1.4%)
Business orders: -3.4% versus -0.2% expected, -2.7% prior (revised lower from -1.4%)
August 28 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, June (9:00): -0.3% expected, -0.7% prior
Consumer Confidence, August (10:00): 65.5 expected, 65.9 prior
August 29 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 08/25 (7:00): -7.4% prior
GDP - Second Estimate, Q2 (8:30): 1.6% expected, 1.5% prior
GDP Deflator - Second, Q2 (8:30): 1.6% expected, 1.6% prior
Pending Home Sales, July (10:00): 0.0% expected, -1.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 08/25 (10:30): -5.412M prior
August 30 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/25 (8:30): 370K expected, 372K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/18 (8:30): 3300K expected, 3317K prior
Personal Income, July (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.5% prior
Personal Spending, July (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.0% prior
PCE Prices - Core, July (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
August 31 - Friday
Chicago PMI, August (9:45): 53.8 expected, 53.7 prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, August (9:55): 73.6 expected, 73.6 prior
Factory Orders, July (10:00): 2.0% expected, -0.5% prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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