Monday, July 02, 2012

Stocks Rally on Unexpected EU E-TARP Agreement


- Stocks ride an unexpected EU E-TARP agreement to 3% gains, overlooking another round of week US economic data and earnings misses.
- EU to use emergency fund for supporting Italian, Spanish bonds.
- Other markets react as if US QE was announced.
- Spending flat for the first time in 6 months, incomes post a modest gain.
- Only 42% of the average wage consists of wages. The other 58%: entitlements.
- Michigan Sentiment final for June hits a low for 2012.
- Chicago PMI still above 50, but survey authors say this is a 'wicked' report. Wicked in a bad way.
- The rally: trying to withstand earnings warnings, economic data and continue toward the prior highs.

It's E-TARP and stocks rally.

It's a bailout US-style for southern Europe.

Of course that raises the same old question about moral hazard . . .

But stocks don't really care about that!

Ring the bells and dance in street for TARP European style. We called it E-TARP. Everyone was celebrating including the US. Stocks rallied 2-3% on the indices. Of course that raises the question about moral hazard. When the little girl in the cartoon asks Santa Claus whether the kids on the naughty list get a lump of coal, he says, "No, of course not. They get a bailout." Those who act irresponsibly are the ones we all have to pay for. You would think that, as parents, we would know this lesson. It applies not only to kids but to any human being (and a lot of animals). We have not seemed to learn that.

The indices surged to the upside. These were big moves that took them up to the highs of a couple weeks back. SP500 and SP600 cleared those highs, at least on a closing basis. Strong moves, indeed. Futures were up in the wee hours of the morning on a deal that the European leaders struck. It would use the emergency fund for supporting -- and you can read that as "buying" -- Spanish and Italian bonds. That is the US version of a bailout. It is the old TARP. We did not necessarily do it that way, but that was the intent. That sent stocks higher. Futures were up all night, and stocks just got better with age as the market rally continued.

SP500, +2.49%; NASDAQ, +3%; Dow, +2.2%; SP600, +3%; SOX, +4.35%

It was a boffo day to say the least.

The E-TARP effect was enough to overcome some fairly weak US data in personal income and spending. Michigan sentiment also hit a 2012 low. The Chicago PMI showed a report that, even though it was above 50, the authors called "wicked." It was not wicked in a good way. But stocks had seen that story before in the US; what they really cared about was Europe getting grips on liquidity, and they surged.


The other markets reacted as you would expect, I guess. A lot of them acted as if the world would be all candy and apples come Christmastime.

Dollar. 1.2658 versus 1.2435 euro. The dollar tanked. A huge move down in the dollar to the 50 day EMA. That is where it held on the last dump. We will see if it does so again. Last time it was a much more orderly pullback to test the breakout. It still has a chance of putting in a higher low. It just received a pretty big setback, obviously, when it was viewed that the bailout in Europe will help firm the euro by firming European economies.

Bonds. 1.65% versus 1.59% 10 year US Treasury. Bonds tanked. A big drop in bonds as you would expect. Overall they held up fairly well, however.

Gold. 1,603.50, +53.10.Gold surged. After all, if we start reducing the value of currencies, then we need to raise the price of gold. It jumped much higher.

Oil. 85.02, +7.32. Oil had a banner day. A big break to the upside. I noted that it was moving laterally in a consolidation. But it looked as if it was setting up at the 10 day EMA for another fall, as we have seen in this trend lower that started in early May. It did not happen. I guess the perception that there will be improvement in the European economy helped bolster demand for oil, not to mention the dollar falling like a stone. Nothing like that to pump up the price of anything based in dollars.

Interestingly, there were even more countries this week who said they would not use dollars when dealing with China. Chile was the most recent saying they will use the renminbi with them. That makes Brazil, Chile, Korea, and the list goes on. Some friendly and some unfriendly. They are dealing with China directly in renminbi and bypassing the dollar. We will see that more and more. At one point we may just see the dollar quietly slip into reserve currency oblivion similar to the pound. That will have dire ill effects on the US economy.

I have talked about this at length before. It does not seem to matter whether it was Bush or Obama. They are content to let the dollar crater. Frankly, they have to be because the debts are so big. If they ever hope to repay them, they need cheap dollars. Unfortunately that eviscerates every US citizen's retirements. What is good for the profligate spenders in our government is not good for those that have to earn the money. Then the government takes that money from us in order to provide us goods and services that we may not want or need or that should be provided by the private sector. But what can I say? That is the way it will be from now on. We have Obamacare, and the likelihood of repeal is very small. I doubt the republicans will win the Senate. It is a tossup as to whether even Romney can defeat Obama with his horrid economic record. Enough said on that.

Other markets reversed according to a massive stimulus program similar to what they would do if there was a stimulus program in the US. Of course stocks reacted in the same way with upside vigor.



Volume. NASDAQ +7%, 1.73B; NYSE +19%, 745M. A solid increase in volume to the upside. Now the question is: Was that all payoff the E-TARP? Surely some of it was because of that. There was a lot of short covering ongoing. A lot of stocks were shorted. NYSE short interest was at the highest since October 2011. That was quite a surge. When you get that high of a reading, you will have a counter move. That is what we saw. Sentiment reached somewhat of an extreme level, and we had a reaction to the other side. If you get too many shorts or too many longs, you get to the point of extreme levels where it needs adjusting. We got something of an adjustment on Friday, I would say.

Breadth. NASDAQ 5.7:1; NYSE 6.6:1. Breadth was impressive. It was a strong day in terms of internals. Typically if you have just short covering, you are looking at a rather narrow rally with breadth not anywhere approaching the 5:1 and 6:1 levels that we saw on Friday. This has attributes of real strength to the move. I guess the exuberance is noteworthy, and it is expected because the Europeans seem to be in agreement. They have crossed a bridge that heretofore they did not want to take -- or at least Germany did not want to take it. Now it looks like they are there, so that is worth celebrating, indeed. Stocks did just that.

Again, the question is whether there will be staying power after that move. All the others have failed. Of course all the others have not reached this level of stimulus or liquidity injection that the bond support provides. That is a completely different animal. Thus we can understand the exuberance in all of the markets whether in Europe or in the United States.


SP500. There was a big break to the upside by SP500. It also moved to a closing high, at least in terms of the mid-June highs. It did not make an intraday high, but it produced a closing high on some very solid, above-average volume. Thursday volume jumped up above average as the index reached lower and reverse. This is decent action as well. Let's recap. We had the top and a selloff, but immediately upon the conclusion of the three-week selloff, we had the formation of an inverted head and shoulders. It put that in right above the next support level. It broke higher, could not make it hold, but then it formed something of an ABCD pattern. This week it has been moving up. With this rally at the end of the month, it gave SP500 its best June ever. The Dow put in its best June since 1999. It was noteworthy. The move set some records.

Again, will the move be able to keep the records going into July? That is the question. I will talk about that shortly. As a precursor, I still think it can get up into this range where the March and April highs were before it rolls over again.

DJ30. DJ30 showed similar action. It, too, put in a higher closing high over the mid-June peaks. These are solid. Higher lows, bounces, higher closing highs. That is building; that is not tailing off. We see some strength coming.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ put in a new closing high. It was not able to put in a new intraday high over those mid-June highs, however. But it did not do a bad job. It put in that closing high and it made a higher low. It held at support. You name it. It is the same as SP500. It takes out this recent high, and it is playing in the range of the March and April peaks.

SP600. The small caps were impressive, indeed. Not only putting in a higher closing high above the mid-June highs but also simply a higher high. Very solid. It has broken back into the range that it was rejected from two weeks back and a month ago. Not bad.

SOX. SOX put in the biggest percentage move on the day, of course. It just has not played along yet. It broke through the 50 day EMA, but it is not above its next resistance. It has yet to break through. It tried it two weeks ago and failed. We will see what happens here. The key for the indices is whether they are going to be able to hold this move. When you ask whether they will be able to hold, of course you have to ask whether they have leadership to push them to the upside.


Big Names. AAPL was up 2.6%. A solid, respectable move. Not a blowout move, but we will take it. AMZN was very good as well, up 3.2%. Very solid, very respectable. It is an outstanding pattern. PCLN was not bad. It gapped to the upside, but it stopped at the 50 day EMA. GOOG was rolling off of the bottom of its range. Look at this big gap. It had been banging up and down at a support level, and it gapped to the upside after that doji on Thursday. Not bad.

Financial. If you just saw JPM, you would think financials did not have a very good day. But outside of that stock they did. BAC rallied almost 6% in a solid upside break. WFC added 3%. Very nice, indeed. TCBI gapped to the upside, but it could not keep the move rolling. Financials overall held up very well. They did not have huge moves in some instances, but some of the leaders were performing just fine.

Medical/Drugs/Healthcare. We had the same results from some of the medical stocks. ALGN posted a very credible 4.9% move. ARAY moved up 4.5%. Medical appliances, health services and drugs are moving up well. Some that had fallen back ahead of the ruling were moving back up such as CERN. It gained almost 6%. That leadership group continues.

Homebuilders, Materials. Once again, the builders are looking strong. BZH was up 7.6%. KBH reported very good earnings and rallied over 12%. Strong moves from the home builders, and some materials are also moving well. LPX rallied 3%. That is another sector that continues to lead.

Industrials. DE continues to the upside, gapping through the 200 day EMA. CAT bounced as well, up 2.75%, although it is still mired in the muck. It is coming back, but it does not look like it has any real pattern. The interesting thing, however, is that it has a higher MACD as the stock put in a lower price low. We could be seeing the formation of a bottom. The question is how much room do you have to run? You can get yourself up to 95 or so. Another 10 points is a possibility for a play to the upside. We will be looking at this one as well as some other plays in this sector to see if we can get enough of a gain and have enough sweet spots, so to speak, to take out of the middle of the move.

Software. Software is looking good again, although it has been treacherous. There are some nice bases out here. TIBX gapped to the upside in its little cup base. It posted a nice pullback to the Fibonacci. AZPN made a nice upside break out of its triangle.

Energy. Energy is rebounding. HAL has bounced nicely, but it is just up to the 20 day EMA, showing a doji in a continuing downtrend. That is one of the problems we are seeing. A lot of stocks have bounced to the upside, but they still do not have great patterns. APC is considered a gas play predominantly, although it has a lot of oil as well. It gapped up to the 50 day EMA, matching the highs from two weeks ago.

We have service stocks that are still trending lower but have bounced. We have oil stocks that have been beaten up but have been trying to turn the corner and bounce as well. We will be looking at some those to see if they can produce anything. If there is going to be some kind of turn in oil, it would be worth picking it up. We will have to see if there are any better patterns that what we have seen in our quick scan.

The point is there are still good stocks in position to lead, and others are stepping up such as software. That is what you like to see. The defensive stocks held up nicely through the selling, and so did the household brand stocks. For the most part they did just fine, and now they are trying to bounce and help lead. All week we were saying that they needed to step up if this move would continue. On Friday they did that. The question for next week -- and it is just a four-day week because of the July 4th holiday on Wednesday -- is whether they can keep the move rolling and post some nice gains before they decide to turn back over.



Income benefits from inflation decline but spending hits a 6 month low.

Personal Income, May (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, May (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.3%)

Still counting the change as wage growth remains tepid.
Wages up just 3% year/year.

Private wages trend lower as entitlements make up more and more of take home.

Wages % of take home pay.

1959: 54% private wages versus entitlements.
1980-1990: 45%
2000-2011: 42%

Conclusion: The average wage earner gets more from the government than from the employer via a paycheck. Is it any wonder we have people voting for more and more entitlements? And who pays them? Those whose percent of private wages is the highest. That is the 'other people's money' Margaret Thatcher talked of.

June Final Michigan Sentiment hits a 2012 low. What happened to the cheer in Michigan?

Sentiment at 73.2 when 74.1 was expected? What about Government Motors helping the economy? Oh the heartbreak.

Chicago PMI for June rises, but report is described as 'wicked' in a bad way.

Not the play.

Chicago PMI, June (9:45): 52.9 actual versus 53.0 expected, 52.7 prior

Prices Paid: -6.4
Inventories up
Order backlogs down
New Orders down: 51.9 vs 52.9

No new orders and thus eating into the backlogs with nothing to replace them to keep activity going.

Down 3 straight months. A sign of trouble for the economy according to the report authors.



VIX: 17.08; -2.63
VXN: 18.65; -2.86
VXO: 16.54; -3.15

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; -0.09

Bulls versus Bears

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 38.7% versus 37.2%. Bounced after two weeks flat. It is now back above 35% after hitting 34% in early June. It did its job and the market is on the rally. Hard drop to 34 from 39.3% as economic reality and a choppy stock market hit. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 24.7% versus 25.6%. Falling for the second week after two weeks at 26.6%. Never did get close to the 35% level that is very bullish. It is always the best signal of bulls and bears cross paths so to speak. Not bad given the bulls' action, but not the best signal. Over 35% is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: +85.56 points (+3%) to close at 2935.05
Volume: 1.88B (+8.67%)

Up Volume: 1.75B (+1.289B)
Down Volume: 295.12M (-1.005B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 5.69 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.63 to 1

New Highs: 144 (+98)
New Lows: 27 (-37)


Stats: +33.12 points (+2.49%) to close at 1362.16
NYSE Volume: 874M (+17.32%)

Up Volume: 3.93B (+1.88B)
Down Volume: 623.63M (-1.286B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 6.62 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.3 to 1

New Highs: 235 (+143)
New Lows: 9 (-34)


Stats: +277.83 points (+2.2%) to close at 12880.09
Volume: 191M shares Friday versus 126M shares Thursday.



Next week is a full calendar of economic data. The ISM index is on Monday. Factory orders are on Tuesday. Thursday we have our usual pre-jobs report warm up with Challenger and ADP initial jobless claims. Of course we have the nonfarm payrolls as well. Wednesday the market is closed for the 4th. Everyone should go out and enjoy that. I will not comment on what I think we ought to do, but I think everyone has their own idea of how they need to participate and how we need to bring about the change we need in this country.

A lot of data but also a lot of earnings. As we saw on Friday, it still plays a big role. Ford announced that its European losses were tripling. We have had a spate of rather poor earnings warnings and results of late with almost 4:1 negative over positive pre-announcements. We will see how this goes. Profits are down; we know they are falling. We are concerned about what the results will show. Next week is still a rather light week for earnings. We have gone through the list, and there are not that many. The following week is where things really start. That means that earnings may not play as big of a role. A lot of companies will be going into quiet time. While we will get some warnings, it may slow down. It is the holiday week, and they may not want to give them, or they may sneak some in. You never know about that; you always have to watch out for that late in the week.

It will also be a new month. June went out with a big finish, and one of the best months for June in many years. Now we have July to face. Of course, that will mean earnings and the meat of the summer. It also means that if the indices continue this move, they will be punching up toward the March and April peaks. It has been our thesis that we will get a continued rally off of this inverted head and shoulders that formed above the prior resistance point. And we are getting that. It has a good initial move, and a test that was kind of dicey. We still saw patterns and stocks looking good, so we hung with it. Sure enough, there was a good break higher on this week. It was capped off by the Friday move. We want to see it continue and break higher next week.

Do we buy a lot of new positions? That will be the question. We do not think we will get a move up through these prior highs -- or if it does it will not hold. We can ride our existing positions higher and do quite well on that move. We will look for some new ones that have not made their breaks yet or are just starting to make their breaks and are not extended. They are out there. They are the next tier of stocks moving higher, and they will play a support role in the continuing move to the upside. We will look for some of those to play but, at the same time, we need to start looking for some downside plays. If we get another few days of upside, that will put the indices at the foothills of the highs from March and April. In that case, we need to be ready in case things want to turn back to the downside or the euphoria from another European deal runs out of gas.

That is the concern, of course. Will this rally be able to continue on the hope of an E-TARP bailout really bringing about good economic results in Europe? Will it be able to withstand earnings warnings or earnings themselves? How about all the economic data next week? Do we want to be around on Friday when the jobs report comes in, or do we want to be out? Last time was a pitiful 69K. They are expecting 100K this time. I think that may just be wishful thinking because the economy has gotten worse rather than better since the prior report. We will see.

We want to focus on winners and focus on the good patterns as we have been. They have been panning out for us. If we get two or three more days of rallying, we will be able to take more gain off of the table for those plays. It will be probably a natural transition at that point over to looking at downside plays as they bump up against the next resistance levels. It will be a natural progression into those if we see the move start to run out of gas. For now it looks as if it still wants to move higher. We will not argue with the move, particularly if the central banks and the leaders of the countries in need start offering more stimulus that reflects the United States style.

Finally, there is the issue of the Fed. With jobs out Friday, that will be the key it is looking for. Another poor performance well less than expectations could trigger our Fed. The Fed now has the Europeans doing what the Fed has been saying they need to do, and our Treasury Secretary as well. The Fed might feel that they do not have to do anything for now. They likely convinced the Europeans to take this step. Germany made a 180 degree turn. I wonder what caused that? But they did make the step. If it was at the urging of the Fed, now the Fed can sit back a bit, let that run its course, and wait on any new Quantitative Easing stimulus.

There is a lot ahead. A lot of issues, but there are issues that this market has faced every day, and it is moving to the upside. As long as it has the leadership it will move. And we want to participate in that move. We will continue to pick up sweet plays. We are not overloading because we have been buying all along. There are still plays in position, and we will be more than happy to pick them up and let them run for us.

Enjoy getting ready for that 4th of July celebration. Have a great weekend!

Support and resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2935.05

2942 is the mid-June 2012 high
2950 is the mid-April closing low
2962 is the April 2012 low
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
3024 is the gap point from early May
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3076 is the late April 2012 high
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low

2910 is the recent March 2012 low
2900 is the March 2012 low
The 50 day EMA at 2889
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2810 is the low in the shoulders
The 200 day SMA at 2794
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low

S&P 500: Closed at 1362.16

1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1406 is the early May 2012 peak
1422.38 is the Post-bear market high (March 2012)
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows

1359 is the April 2012 low
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1337
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1309 is the right shoulder low from June 2012
The 200 day SMA at 1299
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 12,880.09
13,056 is the February 2012 high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,297 is the April 2012, post bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak

12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,716 is the April 2012 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 12,671
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 12,387
12,369 is the left shoulder low from May 2012
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak

Economic Calendar

June 25 - Monday
New Home Sales, May (10:00): 369K actual versus 350K expected, 343K prior

June 26 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, April (9:00): -1.9% actual versus -2.5% expected, -2.6% prior
Consumer Confidence, June (10:00): 62.0 actual versus 64.0 expected, 64.4 prior (revised from 64.9)

June 27 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 06/23 (7:00): -7.1% actual versus -0.8% prior
Durable Orders, May (8:30): 1.1% actual versus 0.5% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from 0.0%)
Durable Orders -ex Transports, May (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.7% expected, -0.6% prior (revised from -0.9%)
Pending Home Sales, May (10:00): 5.9% actual versus 0.5% expected, -5.5% prior
Crude Inventories, 06/23 (10:30): -0.133M actual versus 2.861M prior

June 28 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 06/23 (8:30): 386K actual versus 385K expected, 392K prior (revised from 387K)
Continuing Claims, 06/16 (8:30): 3296K actual versus 3283K expected, 3311K prior (revised from 3299K)
GDP - Third Estimate, Q1 (8:30): 1.9% actual versus 1.9% expected, 1.9% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q1 (8:30): 2.0% actual versus 1.7% expected, 1.7% prior

June 29 - Friday
Personal Income, May (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, May (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.3%)
PCE Prices - Core, May (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Chicago PMI, June (9:45): 52.9 actual versus 53.0 expected, 52.7 prior
Michigan Sentiment -, June (9:55): 73.2 actual versus 74.1 expected, 74.1 prior

July 2 - Monday
ISM Index, June (10:00): 52.2 expected, 53.5 prior
Construction Spending, May (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior

July 3 - Tuesday
Factory Orders, May (10:00): 0.4% expected, -0.6% prior
Auto Sales, June (14:00): 4.7M prior
Truck Sales, June (14:00): 5.9M prior

July 5 - Thursday
MBA Mortgage Index, 06/30 (7:00): -7.1% prior
Challenger Job Cuts, June (7:30): 66.7% prior
ADP Employment Change, June (8:15): 105K expected, 133K prior
Initial Claims, 06/30 (8:30): 385K expected, 386K prior
Continuing Claims, 06/23 (8:30): 3283K expected, 3296K prior
ISM Services, June (10:00): 53.0 expected, 53.7 prior
Crude Inventories, 06/30 (11:00): -0.133M prior

July 6 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, June (8:30): 100K expected, 69K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, June (8:30): 105K expected, 82K prior
Unemployment Rate, June (8:30): 8.2% expected, 8.2% prior
Hourly Earnings, June (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Average Workweek, June (8:30): 34.4 expected, 34.4 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2012 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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