- Investors focus on consumption, sentiment, and Amazon versus GDP and Spanish downgrades.
- Stocks post fourth straight gain as the indices continue their therapy.
- Approaching the prior highs the indices look better but maybe not good enough.
- GDP misses expectations even though weather driven consumption tops expectations.
- Michigan Sentiment final tops expectations.
- Spain downgraded to a couple of steps above junk as unemployment hits a staggering 24.4%.
- Google now sued by the DOJ. AAPL, GOOG . . . who next? Shades of MSFT yet again.
- End of month Monday, turn of new month may keep the money coming in for now but the indices then have to deal with the recent highs.
- Jobs report may put the move on hold: last time we were at these levels was, of course, the April jobs report and stocks sold afterward.
Uninspired but stocks hold on to a fourth day of gains.
Stocks made it four days in a row on Friday. It was not a huge move, but it was an upside day. Stocks had to overcome various issues. The GDP was not nearly as good as anticipated, although consumption was up. Apparently that is what everyone hung their hats on, as it helped lead to a rally. Earnings were out and they were mixed. We had big earnings from our dear friend AMZN. AMZN exploded to the upside and dragged a lot of retail higher with it. There were some other good results from travel companies and other stocks as well. Everything related to consumers seems to be doing better right now.
It was four out of five for the week, and the market has not done that in a while. It has not been at this level for almost a month. They are approaching those March peaks that were the post bear market highs. We will see what happens when we get there. As noted, investors seemed to hang their hats on the consumption aspect of the GDP, and that dovetailed with the big move from AMZN. Huge gap to the upside. This offset the Spanish downgrade that took it to two notches above junk. Amazing. Unemployment in Spain is 24.4%. Of those people 25 and under who are of working age, there is 50% unemployment. That is impressively bad.
Michigan Sentiment helped out and kept things moving to the upside. It fueled that extra consumption attitude where everyone thinks we will spend our way out of this. Maybe that is the case; it has been helping thus far. When you throw all that liquidity into the market, you have purchasing. What we still have to come back to is that real earnings are negative. A lot of this increase is on paper. There is a lot of money being made by some huge multinational corporations and financial institutions. They are handing out big bonuses, and that is helping to spur some of the consumption. The warm winter also helped drive the consumption aspect of the GDP number.
The indices are approaching those prior highs. Four days of rallying. They managed to hang on and show good effort even in the face of some Thursday selling and a selling attempt late in the session. You have to wonder just how strong they will be when they get back up to those prior highs. That said, they picked up some great positions on the week. We snagged PCLN as it came off of the 50 day EMA. It is rising back up near those prior highs. We snagged stocks such as BBBY that made a good move to the upside. It is not the only one. PII was coming off of its lows, and ISRG was doing the same. We have some great stocks that made moves to the upside. We got some that were not so high already that are starting to move as well.
Looking through the market tonight, there is a dearth of stocks in good position to buy. And I mean a dearth of stocks. We can try to buy some right before earnings, but that is loading up the gun with a couple of bullets, spinning it, and taking your shots. I do not like to do that. We have the jobs report coming out next Friday. It will be a very interesting week with respect to what the market will do. A lot of stocks have moved up just as the indices have moved up. The question is whether they will continue or if it was just a rise on lower MACD that will run out of juice. Those are all questions that will have to be answered. Maybe to start next week we can get a day or two to the upside. It is the end of the month on Monday. On Tuesday we have a new month which sometimes brings in new money. If we get a couple more days to the upside, we definitely want to bank some gain at that point.
With the jobs report, we will have to see. Things have not been good in the weekly jobless claims, and the last report was not that great. Heading into the jobs report, stocks were flat at best before starting to fade into Good Friday. Remember that the market was closed that Friday, but the jobs report came out. Nonetheless, we will focus on the fact that it was a good week for stocks and, thus, a very nice close to a week that was a bit unexpected with the strength to the upside.
On Friday the gains were rather modest. The indices sold back late, but they were never really that strong.
SP500, +0.24%; NASDAQ, +0.61%; Dow, +0.18%; SP600, +0.99%; SOX, +0.17%
In sum, the indices looked better. They were engaged in a little self-help therapy, trying to overcome the recent weakness. They did a decent job. They are approaching those highs. They did decently, but, again, you wonder if it will be good enough. We have Europe that is in so much trouble. Looking at some of the numbers in the U.S. economic reports, you cannot put a lot of faith in what you are seeing. But there are good stocks that are on the move. By golly, we will let them move for us as long as they will.
OTHER MARKETS
There was a bit of impact in other markets, but maybe it was not what would be expected.
Dollar. 1.3251 versus 1.3239 euro. If the U.S. numbers were as strong as the market seemed to indicate, you would have thought the dollar would rise. But it did not. As much trouble as there is in Europe, the dollar still went down on Friday. Spain got cut two notches, and now it is two notches above junk, and yet the dollar declined. What is going on?
Bonds. 1.93% versus 1.95% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds managed a modest gain. Bonds were stronger. Indeed, they were stronger intraday at 1.88% yield on the low. Perhaps bonds were a bit worried about the GDP number. Maybe not that much, as they bounced down from their highs.
Gold. 1,664.80, +4.20. Gold had another upside session. Gold is worried about something, and it has been eking higher. But it is still below the 50 day EMA. It reached lower several times over the past week and a half, and it found support and rallied up. Now it is back at the nemesis. It failed the last four times it has hit the 50 day EMA, but it has remained in this lateral move. It is forming a rounded base after breaking out from this downward wedge. It broke out, it gave it up, but it held the trendline and has moved laterally. It is forming a base, a rounded bottom, and an inverted head and shoulders is setting up. From the look of it right now, gold is anticipating a break to the upside. Something may happen. Maybe the indices break lower and gold breaks higher. We will have to see.
Oil. 104.85, 0.30. Oil was up on the session. It was a decent week for oil overall. It was not huge to the upside, but note the trend. After bottoming in early April, oil is slowly moving higher. It did break through the 50 day EMA. As with gold, oil broke out from a range and then tested the range. It looked as if it would fail, but it moved back up. It has not broken higher yet, but it sure looks like it wants to do that.
TECHNICAL SUMMARY
Note that the internals were much more subdued this past week versus what we saw in the day to day volatility and the back and forth action from mid- to late March and early April.
Volume. NASDAQ +1%, 1.76B; NYSE -3.2%, 690M. The volume was mixed on this move to the upside. It did not tell us much. Some days were higher; some days were lower. No clear, definitive statement that the buyers were totally back in and ready to run stocks to the upside. That said, volume was stronger on this move than it has been in prior moves, and that is a positive. It shows there was some buying and, as we saw in many of our key stocks that make good moves to the upside, there was good volume this past week.
Breadth. NASDAQ +1.8:1; NYSE +2:1. Breadth was blas , and that is what you would expect given the rather lackluster gains on the indices. Nothing that significant. The session itself was not too significant other than the fact that the indices avoided rolling over after three upside days.
THE CHARTS
SP500. SP500 did have three upside days and then a fourth added on Friday. Not much, and it put it right into the teeth of some resistance, this interim peak from mid March, and also what we will call twin peaks from late March and early April. It is just below those levels, but it has to get through this interim level first. That is the problem with success at this point. The indices were in trouble, they have been getting boxed around since mid March, and they bounced back and forth in day to day volatility. They had a pretty good slide, and then they were back and forth all through the first half of April. Then they caught a bid this past week and moved to the upside, rescuing themselves by moving back above the 50 day EMA. They are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination.
SP500 still shows a weak MACD. It is approaching the prior highs and MACD is lagging. Volume has been up and down, but it has been a bit better. It is trying to heal itself and continue the run; indeed, that is what it did. The most significant question we have to deal with is what will happen when it bumps up against these March and early April highs that were the post bear market highs. As we will see, that is an issue with just about all of the indices.
DJ30. DJ30 posted a very modest gain, but it was nonetheless up for the fourth session as well, having recovered the 50 day EMA early in the week and rallying to the upside. It cleared an interim peak, and that is important. It still has serious work ahead, however. It made a nice bounce, no question, just as SP500 did , but now it has real work to do at the twin peaks spanning March into early April. In any event, you have a selloff, a recovery, and now the lick log. Will it be able to break through, or will it roll over in a more significant fashion? This is a classic downside set up. We just have to see if it makes the roll to the downside. Note that MACD is trying to come back, but we also note that it is lagging considerably where it was in mid March when stocks were just a little bit higher than they are now. It has the same issues. What will it do when it reaches that level?
NASDAQ. NASDAQ shows the same picture. A gap to the upside on Wednesday with the strong earnings from AAPL, and then a gap to the upside on Friday with strong earnings from AMZN. It cleared this interim range from early April, and now it is sitting right below. NASDAQ is now at these interim peaks. It is at a gap up point and, interestingly, a point where NASDAQ gapped up and then gapped down. It had two really great earnings reports from two important NASDAQ stocks. That has brought it back up to this interim gap point. As with the other indices, we will see this week whether AAPL as any more gas in the tank. It has put some really good earnings out on the table. The market has rallied very nicely, coming back from an ugly gap lower below a key support level. It has rallied and it is trying to heal itself. There is a big test ahead this week.
SP600. The small caps are important to the economy, as we have heard ad nauseam. They are back up to those prior highs from the bear market. This is where it gets interesting in terms of the potential head and shoulders pattern. A four-day rally. It overcame this little hump that could have been a right shoulder, and now it is back up to a key level. As with the other indices, this is where it will have to earn its pay (or not).
The small caps look good. They have held with a little double bottom at support and are bouncing. If they can lead, that would be huge for the market overall. But they have not answered that question yet. They have rallied well, and now they have to continue. They may to want test a bit first, move laterally, and then break higher. If they do that, it is a very solid move. The small caps will be an important index to watch over the next week as the large cap indices (SP500, Dow, and NASDAQ) bounce up closer to their highs. Will the small caps fill in and provide that strength?
SP400. SP400 is even closer to its prior highs than the small caps. It has moved through that February flat top, and now it is looking at the twin and even triple peaks from March. This will be an important index to watch as well. It may not be as economically sensitive as the SP600, but it is more significant with respect to the domestic economy than the large cap indices because the large caps are the companies that deal with international and overseas operations. Those are the places getting all the jobs. We are talking about the U.S. rather than that export economy that really will not do it for us; it has only produced pathetic gains in economic terms. We need the small and mid caps to do the lifting. Thus we will be watching these two indices this week.
SOX. SOX still looks very weak. It did bounce without a doubt, but it had also broken below its March low and its April low. It has recovered back into the range, but it is still below some very significant levels, not to mention the 50 day EMA. This is an important index to watch in the coming week as well. Semiconductors tend to lead or give the indications downside a bit earlier than the rest of the indices.
LEADERSHIP
Note that the week saw mostly leads from retail in stocks like AMZN AAPL, PCLN and EXPE. It was travel, internet shopping, bricks and mortar, or those companies that supply consumer goods. They were the market leaders, but that is not to say there were not leaders elsewhere.
Some of the financial stocks did just fine. STT had a good week and moved up to a prior high. JPM still looks halfway decent, sitting on the 50 day EMA, but it just does not go very far. Nonetheless, you get the point. There are some significant possibilities for additional moves, but overall there are darn few plays out there to the upside. Perhaps that would be expected given the action in the indices. They were up, coming back from some pretty significant selling and weakness, particularly if you look at NASDAQ. It made it back up, but it was struggling.
Thus a lot of the stocks have rebounded from troubling patterns. A lot of semiconductors have rebounded, but you do not really want to buy into them at this point. After four days to the upside, we have stocks such as PCLN that ran quite well to the upside. They are approaching old highs and, as with the indices, they will have to show something here. But they had great weeks. Then we have other stocks that rebounded but are still struggling somewhat. There are more than a few of those out there. One example in the semiconductors is NVLS. It bounced back up, but it is at some resistance and has a series of tops that it has to face.
The leadership is something you would expect. We have had some good moves on the week. There are still stocks in position to move higher, although many of those have already made the break. But there are still a few out there. But, as noted on Thursday, there was not going to be a lot of buying to do on Friday. There may still not be a lot of upside buying to do because there are just not that many stocks in good position to buy. At least not stocks that we want to buy that have good enough trading volume or good enough option spreads. It is getting hard to find those stocks. Of course we will come up with a few, but when you couple it with the fact that there are earnings, that makes is difficult to locate them as well.
There many stocks to the downside that we can look at, and we will be looking at more of those. But as we saw this past week, a lot of these stocks bounced to the upside such as RL. It had broken down, it was heading to fill the gap, but a funny thing happened along the way: It reversed and rallied Wednesday through Friday. It is still in trouble. It is at this down trendline and could easily roll back over. That is just what I am talking about. Some stocks that broke, tried to recover and did a decent job, but still have a hard road to hoe in order to get back above the prior highs and hit new rally highs. That will be the dilemma of the market this week and maybe into next week. We have the jobs report coming, and the market has four days to the upside. At the minimum, it would probably want to test ahead of that number.
THE ECONOMY
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.html
GDP at 2.2% saved by the 'Consumer Spring in Winter', but nothing else in the report looks terribly positive.
GDP- 1st read, Q1 (8:30): 2.2% actual versus 2.5% expected, 3.0% Q4 2011
1. Warm weather: April in February
2. An extra day in the quarter (Leap Year)
3. Supposed jobs surge
AND 2.2% IS ALL WE GET???
Inventories: In Q4 they added 2.2% to growth. In Q1 just 0.59%.
But . . . Consumption (the consumer) rose 2.9%, topping expectations. This was the part of the report the news people jumped on. Yes things are weak but not the consumer. No doubt the consumer spent, aided by that non-winter.
BUT . . . 29% of the gain was from sub-prime auto loans as the government tries to sell the cars its two kept companies manufacture. Yes, sub-prime is back. Anyone who can crawl into a GM or Chrysler dealership qualifies for a loan. Likely his dead grandmother as well.
Business investment: -2.1% versus +5.2% in Q4. The first decline in 3 years!
Key points:
1. Consumer saved the quarter but how long will that last? Wages adjusted for inflation are negative. Just how much buying was pulled forward by warm weather?
2. At 18 quarters from the collapse the economy has yet to produce a quarter of 4% GDP growth and we are supposedly in recovery. FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, the US has not had a 4% or better GDP quarter in SIX YEARS.
3. US Debt to GDP ratio stands at 100.8% (more debt than GDP output) as of 3/31/12.
Big Problem: ECRI's recession call looks more and more likely. It said recession by late summer. It is on track.
Michigan Sentiment Tops Expectations
Michigan Sentiment - Final, April (9:55): 76.4 actual versus 75.7 expected, 75.7 prior (76.2 March Final)
What can you say? It was a warm spring in the frozen north.
Spain on the brink: unemployment explodes, debt downgraded.
Hard to imagine: Unemployment at 24.4%, an all-time record.
Workers 25 years and younger: 50% unemployment rate.
Debt: BBB+, outlook negative. Just two more notches to junk!
What this means for the US:
US Sues Google, and AAPL, and . . .
The FTC hired a top gun lawyer on its antitrust case against Google. That means the government is ready to proceed with a lawsuit against Google.
In 1998 the US took on Microsoft because it was successful. That was the beginning of the end of the tech rally. When government attacks success, the success is at least truncated.
MSFT came up with a good product and good marketing and garnered most of the market. AAPL has produced such successful products it has changed markets and captured large shares. These are not monopolies; they were not created by the government. Indeed AAPL almost FAILED, took no government money, and then re-invented markets to become the greatest tech company today. That success makes it a target in this administrative environment.
This Administration is hostile to business, at least business its friends don't run.
THE MARKET
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 16.32; +0.08
VXN: 17.52; -0.31
VXO: 15.68; -0.07
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; +0.02
Bulls versus Bears
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 41.9% versus 44.1% versus 48.4%. The fade is turning into a full out run (stampede?) as the bulls leave the optimistic arena. Still over 35% (below which is considered bullish) but dropping fast. Ironic, eh? Just as the market found support to bounce the bulls ran. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 23.7% versus 23.7% versus 21.5%. Unable to push higher to match the bull's retreat. Have to get over 45% to really be a good upside indicator, but do you think it will move over 35% anytime soon given how high the indices are? Does not seem likely, does it? Back where it was in late March, and that was down from the 25% to 26% level it held for weeks. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +18.59 points (+0.61%) to close at 3069.2
Volume: 1.762B (+1.03%)
Up Volume: 963.62M (-286.38M)
Down Volume: 776.35M (+289.29M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.81 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.57 to 1
New Highs: 143 (+46)
New Lows: 30 (-2)
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +3.38 points (+0.24%) to close at 1403.36
NYSE Volume: 690M (-3.23%)
Up Volume: 2.02B (-640M)
Down Volume: 1.48B (+180M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.1 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.18 to 1
New Highs: 203 (+31)
New Lows: 12 (-3)
DJ30
Stats: +23.69 points (+0.18%) to close at 13228.31
Volume DJ30: 110M shares Friday versus 107M shares Thursday.
MONDAY
Some serious economic data is on tap. Monday is Personal Income and Spending along with Chicago PMI, both very important data given the import of the consumer and given how manufacturing led the economic recovery. Tuesday is the ISM. Very important as well; will it follow the regions lower? Construction Spending, well, not so important. Wednesday is ADP, important as the pre-jobs warm up. Thursday is Challenger layoffs, and, of course, Initial Claims. Friday it's the nonfarm payrolls, and with the Initial Claims number less than good there is room for disappointment for the second month (or more accurately, second year). Of course it the results are jumbled because we simply trust what our government gives us anymore.
Important week for data and for market action. The indices rebounded but have a serious test of the prior highs ahead of them. Many stocks that rebounded and aided in this move are also in position where they could roll back over. There are some seriously good stocks out there: PCLN, ISRG, PII, BBBY, and EBAY. They are all performing well and moving up. We are happy to have them on board, but then we get back to the market and indices such as the SOX and SP600 and whether they will be able to follow through to the upside.
With the jobs report, we may get a pause. Maybe a little nervousness ahead of the report given a four-day run. There is the end of the month on Monday and the beginning of a new month on Tuesday. Sometimes that brings in new money. That could be offset by the jobs report looming. We have had a good run thus far. We can expect a little test back at some point this week.
One thing to keep in mind is that we were close to this level when we had the last jobs report. That would have been on April 5, and that was the Friday that the market was closed. Stocks bounced a bit and then faded a bit ahead of the number, closing slightly lower just before the jobs report. Now we are back there again, and now we have another jobs report to deal with.
If we get some more upside, we will be more than happy to bank a little gain. We have not had a huge move, but we have had a decent move. We can bank some gain on positions that we have taken and that have run back up after some of the chop from late March and early April. I remain skeptical as to whether the market can continue given the economic data. I do not think it is nearly as strong as we are being led to believe by some of the reports. Looking at the data, it is difficult to see where the strength is coming from. But those are my opinions, and the market does what the market does.
Right now we have a good rally and some good leadership stocks. There are not that many to buy right now. Do not be disappointed if we do not have a lot of upside plays. It is just the nature of the beast. Again, we had the chop, the selloff, and now a rebound back to the upside. The quality stocks held support and are bouncing nicely. A lot of the market is in trouble after a good move to the upside and need to test. The ultimate question is whether this lateral move that started in late January turns into a nice consolidation that breaks to the upside. Indeed, what we have right now is just a little lateral move trading in a range, and it could break out to the upside.
Overlay that with the economy and the economic data weakening somewhat, and that throws it into question. But that is all it does, so we just make good plays and good decisions. We are wading through earnings season. There are always landmines in earnings season. As we have seen, some stocks blow up and some stocks run up. That is the way it is. Often that is why we get out of at least part of a position ahead of the results, and we will continue to do that next week as well.
There are landmines everywhere. There are possibilities of catastrophe with possibilities of a new breakout. The market is, as always, a game of probabilities. We will continue to look for plays that give us good probabilities in these conditions. That is what we want to play. Pure and simple, you look at each play as a probability: the amount of money you can make for a good pattern versus the amount of money you stand to lose if it goes against you. Obviously, you want to have much more money to the upside than potential loss. That is the way the game is played. Thus if we do not get those good probability plays, then we will not make the plays. Since we do not have scads of those to choose from after a four-day rally, there simply will not be that many upside plays until we get a bit better development in the market either moving higher, clearing resistance, and coming back to the U.S. or failing and rolling over.
We have had a good week, and we will see if we can bring more positives next week that will make us a bit of money on our upside plays before the market decides to fall, if, in fact, that is what it does. Have a great weekend!
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 3069.20
Resistance:
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low
Support:
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 2995
2910 is the recent March 2012 low
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
The 200 day SMA at 2730
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1403.36
Resistance:
1422.38 is the Post-bear market high (March 2012)
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows
Support:
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 1374
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1318.51 is the May 2011 low
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1274
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 13,228.31
Resistance:
13,297 is the April 2012, post bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak
Support:
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,056 is the February 2012 high
The 50 day EMA at 12,969
12,876 is the May high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 12,161
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
Economic Calendar
April 24 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, February (9:00): -3.5% actual versus -3.4% expected, -3.9% prior (revised from -3.8%)
Consumer Confidence, April (10:00): 69.2 actual versus 69.5 expected, 69.5 prior (revised from 70.2)
New Home Sales, March (10:00): 328K actual versus 318K expected, 353K prior (revised from 313K)
FHFA Housing Price I, February (10:00): 0.3% actual versus -0.5% prior (revised from 0.0%)
April 25 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 04/21 (7:00): -3.8% actual versus 6.9% prior
Durable Orders, March (8:30): -4.2% actual versus -1.7% expected, 1.9% prior (revised from 2.4%)
Durable Goods -ex Transports, March (8:30): -1.1% actual versus 0.5% expected, 1.9% prior (revised from 1.8%)
Crude Inventories, 04/21 (10:30): 3.978M actual versus 3.856M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, April (24:30): 0.25% actual versus 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
April 26 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 04/21 (8:30): 388K actual versus 373K expected, 389K prior (revised from 386K)
Continuing Claims, 04/14 (8:30): 3315K actual versus 3300K expected, 3312K prior (revised from 3297K)
Pending Home Sales, March (10:00): 4.1% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from -0.5%)
April 27 - Friday
GDP-Adv., Q1 (8:30): 2.2% actual versus 2.5% expected, 3.0% prior
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q1 (8:30): 1.5% actual versus 2.2% expected, 0.9% prior
Employment Cost Index, Q1 (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, April (9:55): 76.4 actual versus 75.7 expected, 75.7 prior
April 30 - Monday
Personal Income, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, March (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.8% prior
PCE Prices - Core, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Chicago PMI, April (9:45): 60.0 expected, 62.2 prior
May 1 - Tuesday
ISM Index, April (10:00): 53.0 expected, 53.4 prior
Construction Spending, March (10:00): 0.5% expected, -1.1% prior
Auto Sales, April (14:00): 5.4M expected, 5.1M prior
Truck Sales, April (14:00): 5.7M expected, 5.7M prior
May 2 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 04/28 (7:00): -3.8% prior
ADP Employment Change, April (8:15): 170K expected, 209K prior
Factory Orders, March (10:00): -1.8% expected, 1.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 04/28 (10:30): 3.978M prior
May 3 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, April (7:30): -8.8% prior
Initial Claims, 04/28 (8:30): 375K expected, 388K prior
Continuing Claims, 04/21 (8:30): 3300K expected, 3315K prior
Productivity-Preliminary, Q1 (8:30): -0.6% expected, 0.9% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q1 (8:30): 3.0% expected, 2.8% prior
ISM Services, April (10:00): 55.5 expected, 56.0 prior
May 4 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, April (8:30): 162K expected, 120K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, April (8:30): 167K expected, 121K prior
Unemployment Rate, April (8:30): 8.2% expected, 8.2% prior
Hourly Earnings, April (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Average Workweek, April (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2012 | All Rights Reserved
Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com
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