Sunday, August 14, 2011

Oil Bounced but Looks Ready to Sell


- Stocks finish the week adding to the relief rally, but the move didn't scare the sellers.
- July retail sales not bad considering the period it covered, but August Michigan sentiment considers more recent events and dives below expectations.
- Oil has bounced but looks ready to sell again. Doesn't speak well for world economies, but works for lower gas prices.
- Market has nothing to seriously rally for without some kind of further economic change or aid.
- Private insurance mandate overturned by appeals court, setting up a summer 2012 Supreme Court date.
- Still looking for a continued upside relief rally, but for now looks only like a . . . relief rally.


Relief bounce continues, but it hits some headwinds Friday.

Stocks finished the week continuing the relief rally that started to gel this past week. "Relief rally" is an awkward term, however, given that the market bounced back and forth each session. For three days in a row, SP500 either gained 50 points or lost 50 points. Friday was the rubber match. It bounced higher, and all the indices managed to put in respectable gains. They were not huge gains, and they certainly did not scare any of the sellers out there. Stocks did close off their highs significantly, and I will talk more about that later. SP500 gave back two-thirds of its gains after stalling below the 10 day EMA. It did not even come close to the November peak.

The Friday session started out all right. It was under water early in the day, but then retail sales came in better than expected. They put in a 0.5% gain, which was in line. The June number was revised upward to 0.3% from just a 0.1% gain previously reported. If you take out autos, they were still solid, coming in at 0.5% again. That was much better than the 0.2% expected. Importantly, June was revised higher again up 0.2% from flat. It is always great to see the revisions to the data, because it shows the experts are too pessimistic. They cling to their old beliefs of weakness or strength just as, I suppose, a lot of America clings to their religion and guns. But I digress. The experts are made to change their ways by the change in the data. I am not saying retail sales are about to explode to the upside, but they are tenaciously hanging on despite all of the weakening indicators in the economy and the negativity in the sentiment.

Another important thing to consider is that retail sales just measure gross dollars. It does not matter if they sell more or less of a product; it is all about price. If the price goes up and they sell less, it may still look like Retail Sales are strong. If we have a lot of inflation, retail sales can literally be inflated by inflation. There would be no net benefit in gained sales, however. You also have to factor in a lot of the expense in retail sales each month. Gasoline builds a lot of the prices. The price of gas has been rampaging. You have to cut that out of the equation because gasoline just represents money we burn in the tank. We do not produce anything with it. We still have to get to work those who have work, that is. There are 14M+ unemployed. But we have to use the gas regardless. If it goes up in price it makes it look like Retail Sales are stronger, so you have to ex out gas as well. Ex out gas and autos, and you then have a 0.3% gain, and that is still very respectable. It is tenaciously hanging in there despite all the negatives we have here and elsewhere.

On Friday we had the same issues about France. Again the worries were that there would be a downgrade. Industrial production was down in June in the EU overall, and there were more rumors that France would go under or be downgraded. Indeed, Italy has passed an emergency package this weekend to try to stave off any kind of collapse.

Stocks were able to rebound on the retail numbers, and that bolstered the open and got stocks moving well. Then a half hour into the trade, we had another important economic report. The preliminary Michigan Sentiment for August was much lower than expected at 54.9 versus 62.5 expected. People felt it would fall anyway, but it was not believed it would fall to these very weak levels that scream recession.

There was a lot to impact people's psyches here. You had the budget debate, and maybe that is what impacted it. You have people thinking, "What do we do? This is such a mess." Congress cannot get its act together and the President can't agree with them either, but that is the way our system works. Sausage-making is not pretty, and unlike the President and many others in Congress republicans and democrats alike it is their job to represent the people who elected them and do what they say. You cannot blame them for doing that. That is what they are supposed to do, and that is what makes the process like kind of ugly.

That is the way the process works, and we need to know how it works. We do not need to be so thin-skinned about it. We need to have principle people there who, whatever side they are on, stick to their guns and try to get the best deal they can. That is what they were doing. It was not a great deal, and it will not really do anything. It did not help prevent a down grade. SP said if we did not do "X," we would get a downgrade, and we did not do "X." It was not even a "Y" we just did something strange.

In any event, it is done. We just have to deal with it and stop being so thinned-skinned. It is good to see retail sales were not bad in the face of all the negative economic data. Of course these were July numbers. A lot of what happened recently was in August, and that was not factored into the Retail Sales numbers. But, as it turns out, people tend to be more thin-skinned than their wallets. Historically that is the case, so I would not expect too much damage from the sausage-making being done in Washington over the debt deal.

Stocks managed to recover, but they were still just a shadow of what they were before the news came out. They were moving well and looked strong, then the rest of the data just was never the same. It kind of frittered away the gains toward the end, and the indices gave up quite a bit of ground.

NASDAQ, +0.6%; SP500, +0.5%; Dow, +1.1%; SP600, +0.34%; SOX, -0.4%. SOX is really being the anchor chain on the market. The chart of the SOX is not great, as you would expect.

Again, this action left stocks with decent gains on the day, all things considered for such a wild week. But they were well off their session lows. Looking at the charts, it looks like they were giving up or running out of gas well below the November peak. NASDAQ is the same thing. It reached up and actually gapped to a doji below the 10 day EMA, right in the middle of the November range. Not great action. The DJ30 did the same thing. It surged to the upside, fell way off the high, not coming close to the November peak. It looks as if they are running out of gas on this relief bounce before they ever got started.

That is going to be the question of the week. Do they turn over right here or will they continue to put forth the relief bounce spawned from the extreme internals and the sharp selling over the last couple of weeks? We also have to worry next week about the European issue and, of course, the U.S. data. There will be a lot out. But a lot of people are pointing only to Europe as it problem. The U.S. has its troubles as well. The data shows that the economy is hanging on, but it is hardly growing after two years of "stimulus," the "Summer of Recovery," and two rounds of Quantitative Easing thrown in by the Federal Reserve. It is pathetic. We are talking 1930's and 1970's kind of growth, which should be no surprise since we are promulgating 1930's and 1970's style economic policies.


Dollar: 1.4249 versus 1.4223. Off modestly Friday, not moving much on the week. If Europe is in such dire straits, the dollar would be surging. It would but for the fact that the U.S. is not that strong either. Remember, the Fed is keeping interest rates at 0% for the next two years. At least that is offsetting any issues in Europe. As noted, the US economy is not diving, but it is not growing. It has been trailing off all of 2011. That explains why the dollar is not going anywhere versus the Euro even though there are legitimate worries out of the EU.

Bonds: 2.25% versus 2.33% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds recovered. It was a huge two weeks for bonds. Bonds are not doing what you would expect if the U.S. economy was performing well. Bonds should be selling off, so bonds are telling the story that the U.S. economy is not as strong as some say it is. Larry Kudlow is saying, "What recession? What recession?" Well, I would say, "What grand expansion?" They are all saying things will be fine and dandy, but bonds are not forecasting that. Bonds are forecasting a weak economy and more Fed Quantitative Easing. What they are not forecasting right now is more inflation, but that will be baked into the cake. With the Fed saying we will have 0% interest rates for two years, it is just a matter of time before the seeds of inflation are seriously sown in our economy.

Gold: 1743.20, -8.30. Gold continued its decline for the second day. It has not been a massive rollover. We were looking for a move back down to the gap point, but it may not make it. It may come back down to the 10 day EMA. If it does, we have to be ready to move out of our downside positions if it holds and tries to bounce at that level. Gold is hardly in any kind of serious trouble; it is just making a normal pullback. That is what we have to playing with the GLD puts. We also have our IAU position that is returning nicely for us. We are just letting it test before it continues its run to the upside.

Oil: $85.24, -0.48. Oil rebounded all week, doing exactly as expected. I figured it would rebound this week after it came down and tapped support. It reversed and moved higher. It is now at the 10 day EMA and at the gap point from February. It is showing a doji at that level. I do not think oil will go much higher. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe some economic news will come out and it will bounce to the upside, but it is not forecasting a lot of economic strength. It has broken its trend. It broke again and then very sharply over the last three weeks. It is not showing that it is ready to race to the upside. But watch it and we will see. This is not any ABCD pattern at least not to the upside. I think oil may head lower after this modest bounce from last week.



The internals and volatility hit levels that would warrant a reversal. Many extremes were popped in. There was the put/call ratio, and then the VIX hit 48 on the close last week. That almost matched the intraday high back in May of 2010 during that summer base and selloff. We had new lows spike to almost 1500-2000. Two days of very high new lows on the NYSE. We had huge negative breadth at almost -19:1 and -20:1 as well. Those are extremes. They sow the seeds of a rebound, and the stock market is trying the make that bounce. As I noted, it has not been scaring anyone on the move, especially on Friday, but it is trying to make the bounce. In theory it should make the bounce.

Volume. Volume fell 30% on NASDAQ and the NYSE.

It was not a powerful upside day at all. It was a late summer, Friday, "Let's get the heck out of the office and go home after a crazy week" kind of volume session. There was not a lot of power here. It does not tell you a lot about the session, and that tells us why the indices closed well off the highs on the day. There was not any staying power late in the day to keep bids there to close out the indices to the upside. That is why I am still thinking this is likely a continuation move of the relief rally to come this week.

Breadth. Friday was not any great shakes. The advance/decline line was flat on NASDAQ and +1.8:1 on the NYSE.


SP500. SP500 tapped at the 10 day EMA and faded, giving back two-thirds of its gains. It was not a strong move, but it was a move to the upside. It was probably mitigated for the reasons stated: Late on a Friday, an exhausting week, and everyone wanted to get out of dodge.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ gapped up, showing a doji below the 10 day EMA. It has just about filled the gapdown point from two weeks back. It is still well below the November peak. Has not even made that level. Trying to move up, but not scaring anyone with its move.

SP600. SP600 was up 0.34%. It gapped to a doji. It is right in the middle of the November range, still well below 10 day EMA. Not a lot of strength there.

SOX. SOX gapped higher, rolled over, and closed negative. It is right at the 10 day EMA. It is well below its November peak. It is mired in this range, and I think there could be downside coming. If it does, that will drag the rest of the market. Ultimately I think it will pull the rest of the market down. I really view this as just a relief bounce, and nothing fancier than that in the market. This is, as I have always said, a relief bounce that we want to play. I think it is a tradeable one given the massive negative extremes in the sentiment and internal indicators.

It is trying to bounce. Friday did not look great, so we have to be very aware of that next week in case things deteriorate and the move collapses. Again, we know it was a tough week. The market was moving fine until late in the session when basically everyone had left for the day and the bids dried up. Volume tumbled and stocks just managed to close out to the upside. Thus I still feel there is more upside room on this relief bounce and that Friday was not necessarily indicative of what it will do next week.

Again, you have to look at the patterns, and the patterns are showing a little weariness. If they do not pan out, then you need to get out of the upside.


Internet. There are a lot of categories to cover, and I will just talk about one stock in the internet sector has been performing well for us. We saw NTES come off of this low with an island reversal. There is the gap down and the gap back up. We have been playing it to the upside. It came off of a support level in doing this, so it is just a classic rebound. Note it is not a stock necessarily in a great position. It is in a rolling range. We can play that, but it does not look ready to break out to a new high on this run.

Healthcare/Medical Appliance. Healthcare has been one of the best performers. ISRG continued its move on Friday, although it also closed well off of its high. Health insurance stocks may not belong here, but I am putting anything related to health in this category. LPHI continues higher with a 9% gain on Friday. Just churning it out. RTIX is in medical appliances. It posted a nice 6%+ gain on Friday. This is an area that is making moves.

Energy. Energy is making moves as well, just not in the right places. It bounced last week. Nice run and rebound, but it does not look that powerful. MRO gapped higher as most of the refiners did on Friday, but it just hung onto part of the gain. Very much a bear flag, bouncing back and still looking weak. CVX gapped higher upside as well on Friday, but it gapped to a doji that tapped the 10 day EMA on the high and faded. Bear flag. Lots of resistance. BTU gapped higher to the 10 day EMA and reversed. It is the definition of a bear flag: a sharp selloff and a weaker lower-volume recovery to the upside.

Industrial. CAT gapped to the upside Friday, but it is still an ugly pattern. Maybe it can make some more headway here and the market could use it. It did bounce off of a support level. We will see if it can rally back up to this key range. As I said, the market could use its help.

CMI gapped up as well. It gapped through some resistance. We will see what happens, but that is an ugly pattern. Lower high, lower lows, and it is not an ABCD by any stretch. UTX was up. Industrials were trying to recover. After a hideous beating they are rebounding, and UTX put in an almost 4% move on Friday. There is recovery, but it is only recovery; these are not leadership patterns ready to spark rallies to the highs.

Technology. AAPL is coming back. It held last week on these lows from early in the year that marked the top of that range. It gapped higher on Friday and held much of the gains. It is trying to come back. GOOG is hanging on. It held a key support level and bounced on Thursday. Now it is trying to hang onto that move. The big technical story at the end of the week was CSCO actually getting back to profitability. It beat the street, showing good revenues and decent outlook, and it gapped over the 50 day EMA and managed to hold that level on Friday.

Retail. JWN gapped up on Friday on a good earnings report. It gapped through some resistance. We will see if we can make something out of it, but it still kind of an ugly pattern with a lot of technical damage at this point. TJX is a discounter, and it is bouncing nicely off of a support level. Not bad. Looking like it will try to put in a higher low and try to rally toward that last higher high. It is one I have looked at and watched. Just goes to show you that you cannot watch stocks and expect to make money off of them.

COST is not great. It bounced a bit last week, but it got torched and is not getting itself up off the ground. RL reported great earnings last week, and it is looking for a new high. What a move. It was tailing off and put in a big reversal. If you were watching and RL was one you tracked all the time, you would have seen this and would have wanted to buy into it. We have a sharp selloff and a massive reversal. That was your only chance because it gapped higher the next session and then it was gone.

We watch a lot of stocks so we can try to capture these, but on something like this you have to be watching it intraday. It was diving the day before and then it gapped higher the next day and had a wild session. Some of them you just have to watch. If you have favorites, watch them. We do the same, but there is no way I could have issued anything on this in a report basis because the move was over in a day.

Restaurants had a good end of the week. EAT had good earnings on the week, and it had a nice rebound. But look how it has come back to this massive resistance range. That is what you call overhead supply. A trading range, it tried to break out, and then it rolled over. All of this is just massive overhead, particularly here when people bought into it as it started to move higher again. Now they have to clear out all of this overhead before it can rally. The odds are it may have to come back down and sell some more.

Metals. Metals are not pretty. FCX sold off with a nasty gap a week ago. It has recovered, but look where it has hit and rolled over on Friday right at serious resistance. It does not look good. AKS had a massive selloff. Weak rebound to the 10 day EMA, setting up a bear flag.

There are a lot of issues with leadership. There is not the clear-cut leadership because there was a lot of technical damage done last week in the selling. Nonetheless, there are stocks able to bounce off the bottoms of trading ranges. Those are what we have been mostly moving into. We are able to pick up some here and there. And a good pattern or two out there were providing plays as the market started to rebound. But overall a lot of damage is done in leadership, and the ranks are very thin. That, of course, makes it difficult for a market to rally if there are not a lot of good stocks in good position to make credible runs at new rally highs. If they are just rebounding off the lows, you can make money off of that, obviously. But longer term, it does not mean the market is ready to break out. If there is no leadership, the market has trouble making further moves to new highs.



VIX: 36.36; -2.64
VXN: 35.22; -2.63
VXO: 37.37; -2.85

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.09; +0.06

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 47.2% versus 46.3%. Bulls bouncing, heading back toward 49.5% hit three weeks back. Holding higher even in the turmoil, perhaps seeing the selling as overdone. This, however, a contrary indicator and if they are not scared out then it is not working in terms of an upside advance. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 23.7% versus 24.7%. Wrong way as well, falling versus rising in the turmoil. Still up from the 21.5% three weeks back and still off the July high near 28%. The 35% level is considered bullish for the market overall. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: +15.3 points (+0.61%) to close at 2507.98
Volume: 2.224B (-28.74%)

Up Volume: 1.37B (-1.41B)
Down Volume: 802.11M (+710.99M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.08 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 5.08 to 1

New Highs: 8 (0)
New Lows: 61 (-87)





Stats: +6.17 points (+0.53%) to close at 1178.81
NYSE Volume: 1.205B (-29.45%)

Up Volume: 2.92B (-3.84B)
Down Volume: 2.04B (+1.786B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.8 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 7.15 to 1

New Highs: 31 (-5)
New Lows: 30 (-126)




Stats: +125.71 points (+1.13%) to close at 11269.02
Volume DJ30: 228M shares Wednesday versus 393M shares Thursday.



There is a lot of data out next week. There are a couple of manufacturing reports from the regions one starts the week and one ends the week. New York is early and Philly Fed comes late. There are housing starts, there are existing home sales. The CPI is coming out. There is industrial production and capacity and leading economic indicators, which have not been very accurate. They never really are. It has been showing things are improving, and they are not.

Lots of data to digest as the market tries to make its rebound. Looking at the market, there is plenty of room for stocks to rebound. But looking at the economic data in the US and the problems out of Europe, there is not a lot of reason for the market to rally without some kind of economic aid, whether from the Congress and the administration or from the Federal Reserve.

The economic data has been waning. The indications are not good for any kind of pickup, so everyone has their eyes on the Fed to see if it will do something. No one really expects anything out of Congress or the administration since they could barely get a budget detail because there was supposed to be no more spending.

Of course, there is the perverse idea in Washington, DC that cutting taxes and giving incentives to invest in the U.S. is spending. That is not spending because it is not their money in the first place. It is OUR money. It is not spending to let people keep their money. It is a philosophy about government and economics, but it is not spending.

The market really needs something to make a new, sustained rally. I am talking about just a relief rally, right? That is all I am viewing this as. I am not viewing this as any nirvana move to a new high. We just want to scratch out a rally either to the top of the November low which is our low point or, better yet, up to the neckline in the SP500's head and shoulders near 1260. That is what we want to play. That is what we have positioned ourselves in as the market positioned itself to bounce higher, given the extremes and the indicators it put in earlier in the week. It very well could continue; it is set up quite well to do so. I think Friday it was just fading back because of a late-afternoon lack of bids on a "Let's get out of dodge" Mentality after a very tough week.

We are looking for further upside this week. The caveat is that the patterns are what the patterns are. On Friday there was low volume as they bounced up toward the 10 day EMA and could not hold the move. They looked tired. If they roll over, we have to be ready to deal with reality and take what the market gives. That means playing some of those downside patterns that look so good.

We are going to have downside patterns at the ready. We already have some, and we are looking at other plays we can take advantage of as well. There are a lot of them out there. Just by preponderance, you would think the market may want to turn lower given the technical picture. That is why we have to be ready to take it that way if that is where it wants to go. We will be ready to do that. But if it continues the rally, which would be the unexpected course for many people, then we stick to the same plan we had already. We will let our positions we have purchased move higher. Some that are still in good position can run for us without needing a huge gain in the market overall. In other words, they are well-placed and ready to move. We can pick up some of those. We already have many in hand that we want to let run. We do not want to get too extended on this move. It is just a relief rally, and they can reverse at any point in time.

We will play any further move with those plays. We will let the positions we need to have recover do so. If they run out of gas, we will close them. Then we will be ready to initiate the downside plays and make more money downside when what I think is a relief rally caps out either at the 10 day EMA, at the November peak, or even up at the neckline from the SP500 head and shoulders.

Have a great weekend! I will see you on Monday with that ton of economic data and the test of key near-term resistance on the indices.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2507.98

2532 is the August gap down point
The 10 day EMA at 2540
2540 is the early November 2010 lower gap point
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2599 is the June 2011 low
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2676 is the January 2010 low
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 2694
The 200 day SMA at 2709
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2759 is the May low
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak

2469 is the November 2010 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows

S&P 500: Closed at 1178.81
1127 from August 2010
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
The 10 day EMA at 1196
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1234 is the August 2011 low
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1274
The 200 day SMA at 1286
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak

1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low

Dow: Closed at 11,269.02
The 10 day EMA at 11,38911,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,555 is the March low
The August low at 11,700
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
The 50 day EMA at 12,040
The 200 day SMA at 11,992
12,094 is the April 2011 low
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,283 is the March 2011 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,876 is the May high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low

Economic Calendar

August 9 - Tuesday
Productivity-Preliminary, Q2 (8:30): -0.3% actual versus -0.6% expected, -0.6% prior (revised from 1.8%)
Unit Labor Costs, Q2 (8:30): 2.2% actual versus 2.2% expected, 4.8% prior (revised from 0.7%)
FOMC Rate Decision, August (14:15): 0.25% actual versus 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

August 10 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 08/06 (7:00): +21.7% actual versus +7.1% prior
Wholesale Inventories, June (10:00): 0.6% actual versus 1.0% expected, 1.7% prior (revised from 1.8%)
Crude Inventories, 08/06 (10:30): -5.225M actual versus 0.950M prior
Treasury Budget, July (14:00): -$129.4B actual versus -$132.0B expected, -$165.0B prior

August 11 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/06 (8:30): 395K actual versus 409K expected, 402K prior (revised from 400K)
Continuing Claims, 7/30 (8:30): 3688K actual versus 3700K expected, 3748K prior (revised from 3730K)
Trade Balance, June (8:30): -$53.1B actual versus -$48.0B expected, -$50.8B prior (revised from -$50.2B)

August 12 - Friday
Retail Sales, July (8:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.1%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, July (8:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.0%)
Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary August (9:55): 54.9 actual versus 62.5 expected, 63.7 prior
Business Inventories, June (10:00): 0.3% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.9% prior (revised from 1.0%)

August 15 - Monday
NY Empire Manufacturing, August (8:30): -0.4 expected, -3.76 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (9:00): $23.6B prior
NAHB Housing Market Index, August (10:00): 15 expected, 15 prior

August 16 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, July (8:30): 608K expected, 629K prior
Building Permits, July (8:30): 606K expected, 624K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., July (8:30): 0.0% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, July (8:30): -0.1% prior
Industrial Production, July (9:15): 0.4% expected, 0.2% prior
Capacity Utilization, July (9:15): 77.0% expected, 76.7% prior

August 17 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 08/13 (7:00): +21.7% prior
PPI, July (8:30): 0.0% expected, -0.4% prior
Core PPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 08/13 (10:30): -5.225M prior

August 18 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/13 (8:30): 400K expected, 395K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/6 (8:30): 3698K expected, 3688K prior
CPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Core CPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Existing Home Sales, July (10:00): 4.87M expected, 4.77M prior
Philadelphia Fed, August (10:00): 1.0 expected, 3.20 prior
Leading Economic Indicators, July (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2011 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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