Sunday, June 26, 2011

Market Still in Position to Bounce


- Better economic data should have aided the Thursday reversal . . . but it didn't.
- Who cares category: GDP clicks up a tenth in its final revision
- Durable goods orders post a very decent showing with some good upside revisions.
- Geithner admonishes Congress that the budget agreement needs to include 'revenue' aspects, i.e. tax hikes. We have already bailed out their favored companies and now they want us to bail them out?
- Even with the selling the market is still in position to bounce, but there is just no upside follow through.
- Darn few earnings warnings as the warnings season draws toward its end. Lower energy could lead to surprises for Q2 results, and with the market set up for a bounce that could give us the fabled summertime rally.


Unable to hold another promising upside move, but still hanging in at support.

What can you say about the action on Friday or, for that matter, the entire week? Thursday there was a reversal off the 200 day EMA. This was after the market tried to rally early in the week but sold off. It held support again and bounced nicely to end the session. On Friday the sellers came right back in, and the indices fell back down to trade and close in the same range they have been in for the past couple of weeks. There was some better economic data that may have aided the Thursday reversal and continuing movement to the upside. China was more upbeat with respect to pricing pressures. It thinks it has things under control. That is like a coach getting a vote of confidence when it comes to central banks and governments talking about having inflation under control. It seems like the market figured it out anyway; propaganda is still one of the main exports from China.

There was other good news. The final GDP number came in at 1.9%, and that was a tick better than the 1.8% prior. Durable goods were very solid at a 1.9% gain. When you take out transports, they were 0.1% less than expected, but it was good-enough data to make a difference. Yet it really did not. Futures were lower from the open and did not recover too well. The market did put on a good move -- or at least tried to put on the face of a good move. It gapped lower but then reversed to rally to the upside, turning positive. Then the sellers came in big time and sold the market into the mid-morning. It tried to rebound and progressively failed the rest of the day, making lower highs and lower lows into the close. Looking at the chart, they did not implode; they were just unable hold their ground.

NASDAQ had its issues thanks to ORCL. Its earnings were decent but not enough to impress investors. It slid back to the 200 day EMA but is still in that recent range. The small caps look decent. They slid back as well, but they are well inside their range. There was a relatively minor loss when looking at other action in the market. Again, it was a day that found no traction. It was part of a rather frustrating week. Everyone trying to catch a rally to the upside or a selloff to the downside was somewhat disappointed. That does not mean we did not make decent money this week on the trades we closed. We made good upside money. Not huge gains, but it did what we wanted it to. Caught a nice move up and made some great money there. We enjoyed that but could never get the break one way or the other. We banked some good gain on short term and some longer term we held. We could not get the move we wanted for the new stuff, however.

Did I say it was a bit frustrating? Yes. I also want to reiterate that the indices are still holding a key support level. They found no purchase on Friday after what looked to be a good reversal, but they did not give up the goods. They are still there in position to move. The question is whether they are going to get the impetus they need to make the break higher. They have to find some kind of follow through, and they will. The market always does, but it does it in its own time. First you have frustration that things are not moving well. You lose a little interest, and the next thing you know you have the break one way or the other.

I do not want to sound pollyanna, but even with the Friday pullback, the market is still in position to rally. Why am I focusing on a rally versus the downside? We all know I feel the bias is to the downside. I think things are ugly in the economy and that it will bear more bad fruit for the market. Near term, however, it is still holding up. Despite the negative news and the fact that the market has sold off and failed to hold a bounce higher off the 200 day EMA -- whether you are looking at the SP500 or the NASDAQ -- it is still holding in there. Thus I feel it can still deliver the upside bounce. That is just a feeling coupled with some patterns I see from decent stocks, but it is strong enough for me to keep looking to the upside. It is not strong enough for me to give up on the downside and close all of our plays. As a matter of fact, we picked up some QID (NASDAQ) just to balance out the portfolio. We have some upside on the SSO (SP500) and on the SMH (SOX). We have some IWM out there. We also needed more balance, so we took a bit of the downside on the techs to give our index plays a bit of balance and a little hedge.

We will wait and see which way it breaks and go heavier that way. For now, I always want to try picking up money on these interim swings. With the indices holding at some key and relatively near support, we have to stay open to the idea that the market can still bounce despite how frustrating it has been in trying to hold a move.


Dollar: 1.4182 versus 1.4259 Euro. The dollar had a big day. Looks as if the dollar is trying to make the breakout again. Now it has formed the inverted head and shoulders. It is back up toward the neckline. It looks strong to make the move higher. A higher dollar would mean either a weaker Europe and a stronger US or some degree of variation in the two. It could be that we had better economic data; that did not hurt. Even though we know that Greece will be bailed out after what happened Thursday. There is an agreement among the triumvirate of the IMF, the EU, and Greece. There was some movement on the austerity in Greece as well. You would think that might help the Euro, but instead the dollar was the main beneficiary. It is looking stronger. That is probably to the chagrin of the Obama administration and its desire for a weaker currency to aid in its export-nation economy.

Bonds: 2.87% versus 2.92% 10 year US Treasury. Bonds had on outstanding day. Bonds rallied and pushed yields lower. Overall bonds were not up all around in the US, but the benchmark 10 year was very strong, continuing its rally and starting to make the next breakout. Why would it be stronger on a supposedly stronger economy with the improving economic data on Friday? It is probably because no one really believes it will be permanent. They think any positive increases in economic data would be, to use the Fed's word, "transitory" as the economy continues to find its way lower.

Gold: $1,500.90, -19.60. It was another thrashing for gold as it broke below its trendline and its 50 day EMA. It was the first time below the 50 day EMA on the close since mid-February. We will see if it can make a reversal. It was cruising, not having any trouble at all. It just broke free of the early-June peak and, as is often the case, it is a vulnerable point. When you break down or break to the upside, you can see a reverse occur. That is exactly what happened on Thursday, and it was some follow through on Friday. Again, we will give it a day to see if it was a false breakout and it can recover over the 50 day EMA. With two downside days, it will have to prove it.

Oil: $91.16, +0.14. This was the day after the "big" 60M barrel release was announced from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Oil did not fare that well, but it was not bad. It is still struggling. Oil had already broken down, even before the announcement of the release. Those tend to be transitory. They can be timely. Maybe if it was done when the problems in Libya first emerged. 2M barrels a day were taken offline, and it could have had an impact in that case, showing that the non-producing nations (but those with oil reserves) were willing to do what it takes to keep prices down. They did not. They hesitated, and even people on the left said it was a politically-motivated release. If it works it looks great to the uninformed. It looks as if the administration may have had a hand in bringing oil down. How many people actually pull out the chart of the oil index and see that it had already broken its trend and was breaking down once more as the announcement was made? Not many.

Oil remains weak, and that is a bonus for the economy. What is the reason for the weakness? Is it speculators going out of the market? A bit. But it is also because the economic data from the US since January pretty much stinks.



Volume. Volume jumped up. It was the Russell rebalance. We had the SP500 rebalance last week. Here we had a 37% increase on NASDAQ to 2.85B shares, and a 9% increase on the NYSE to 1.14B. That was not as big, but a lot of the Russell stocks are four-letter stocks on the NASDAQ. That is where most of the action took place.

Breadth. Breadth was decidedly downside, although not overbearingly so, as we have seen on recent downside sessions. It came in at -1.4:1 on the NASDAQ and -1.75:1 on the NYSE.


SP500. SP500 fell back down to the 200 day EMA. It is still in the range it has been in for the past two and a half weeks. That is roughly at the 200 day EMA and the March low. The fact that it has not given up the goods at this point indicates to me that it still wants to try a bounce. I don't think it will get out of it. That is pretty much going to be the end of the line for it, but nonetheless it could be the point where it does make a bounce.

Looking at the Fibonacci chart, it is putting in a double bottom near the 78% retracement level. That is a good indication that you could get a bounce. If you see a double bottom at the 78%, then you get a bounce that could theoretically take you up to the old highs -- but we have way too much resistance in here. We are still looking at the early-April peak to early-March peak as the potential bounce points. Just keep that in mind. It has not giving up this range. It is holding at the 200 day EMA and right around the 78%. It is trying to put in a double bottom, and it should yield an upside. We will see.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ has been one of the dogs, getting beaten pretty hard lately. It was down 1.25%, but it, too, held near the 200 day EMA on the close. Volume jumped as it made that move, but note how it was not nearly as big a move as we have seen on some other sessions. That volume jumped up as it held support. That could suggest that buyers are still stepping in to push it back up. It tested and actually broke its March low. This prior week it bounced off of it, and it is holding above that level. That is a positive. No one wanted to think of this as a positive session. It really was not, but overall the compilation suggests that we may still get that bounce higher that takes NASDAQ up into the range, maybe near that early-April peak.

SP600. SP600 did not have a bad day. Relative strength, only down 0.7%, holding at the 10 day EMA. Selling, but not selling off. Still inside the trading range that they recovered early last week. Again, that is not bad action. Small caps are economic indicators, and they are holding the line. We can take some heart from that. If they can break higher, that is great. But I don't think they will do much more than that. I do stand open to any change that is for the positive.

SOX. SOX was beaten about the head and shoulders, down 2.5%. But it did manage to hold above its recent lows and in its recent range. It is definitely in a downtrend. It is having a hell of a time getting it together, but it still looks good for a bounce up into the lower reaches of its trading range. That 50 day EMA sitting right on the upper support level sure looks like a logical place for the SOX to try to hit. That is at 419, and SOX closed at 392. That gives it a nice 27 point run up to that level.


Financial. There was not much leadership here. JPM was down to a new rally low -- a rally to the downside, of course. GS was the same story. WFC is actually looking somewhat lively, holding above the 20 day EMA. Maybe it will provide some real leadership and hold the move to the upside.

Industrial. CAT is hanging in there. It is trying to continue the bounce off its 200 day EMA. Gotta love that. CMI is doing the same. It is bouncing, not off its 200 day EMA, but it undercut its March low and has bounced right back up. It is testing that level right now. It may be able to make the move upside. I am still looking at UTX to the downside. It may fall. Not showing negative MACD, but it is just a weak pattern. You have your head and shoulders, and we are looking for a fade off of this shoulder. If it continues on Monday, it is likely time to pull the trigger.

Technology. AAPL faded back, but it is holding near its 200 day EMA. It may still try to move a bit higher in its range before it folds the tent and heads lower. GOOG looks like crap as it continues to find new lows on the selloff. One of the problems for NASDAQ was the ORCL earnings. It did hold near the 200 day EMA. Just like NASDAQ, and it may try to make a bounce off of that level.

Metals. The precious metals and gold had a hard time, but copper had a good day. FCX was down, but copper bounced higher on indications (or propaganda) that China may be feeling better about its future. Steel is struggling, but it is holding the bottom of its range as well. Aluminum is at the 200 day EMA. All those patterns are very similar. If we get a bounce, they are all going to go up. They are trying to hold up. BHP is trying to hold that 200 day EMA. A bit weak. It is in a good downtrend, but we will see what happens. We could get that break to the upside. In this market, with a lot of these stocks it is basically about which government will issue what report next. Good, bad, or indifferent, that is what is driving much of this. That is unfortunate. Even so, trends are trends and we can still make money playing them.

Healthcare/Drugs. These sectors performed very well. I thought they would perform better as the economy slowed, and they did better and then hit some rocky times. They are starting to move back up. HNSN had a nice break to the upside off of a double bottom with handle. That is sweet. BIIB is getting it together after that gap higher. Good volume, but it is a Russell thing, of course. Maybe that is what is driving these higher, but they look really solid on the session. EXAS has been defying the market, continuing higher. Not huge moves but slow and steady to the upside. Looking very solid. ELOS looked like it was dying, but it is trying to break back to the upside and perform. There are leaders out there. You have to delve around and look for them, but they are showing up.

These have somewhat of a defensive flavor to them, but that is the flavor of the month given the market. With the rest, we are looking for bounces from stocks that we have upside positions in. These are stocks that are able to make good moves. You know the ones I am talking about. BIDU has made a good bounce for us, and we are looking for it to continue that move higher in any relief move this coming week. There are stocks in good shape and moving up, and sectors that look good overall. Then there are stocks that have had the snot knocked out of them but have come back to a support level and are moving up off of there as well. They may not lead to new highs, but they can make us money if this relief bounce continues in the coming week.




GDP hardly worth comment.

Durable Goods Orders and the revisions are very encouraging.

Administration says revenues need to be a part of the debt reduction, but facts are pesky to deal with. No matter how much we are taxed, revenues will remain relatively constant.


VIX. Volatility was up 1.81 on the VIX to 2110. That bounced the VIX off of the 200 day EMA. On Tuesday and Wednesday it sold back down to the 50 day EMA, but each day it reversed off of that level. After breaking higher and looking as if it would roll back over, the VIX has found support and it will try to rally. That could mean there is more selling ahead. We will see. I think there is more selling ahead. It is just whether it occurs Monday, Tuesday and/or Wednesday or if it holds off, lets the market try a bounce and pushes it back down to the 50 day EMA level again. Then it sells off and we have a spike higher to a more meaningful level that could indicate a reversal.

VIX: 21.1; +1.81
VXN: 22.58; +1.82
VXO: 21.59; +2.19

Put/Call Ratio. The put/call ratio jumped back over 1 on the close, coming in at 1.07. It has been putting in a lot of closes over 1.0. With the recent ups and downs in the market, it actually started coming back somewhat, but the preponderance is over 1.0. That is a contrary indicator. The more pessimistic investors become, the more likely that they are wrong that the market is going to turn. That is why I say we have a lot of pessimism even though volatility looks like it wants to bounce. I think we will get another extension of the relief rally. That would help bounce the market up, give a little upside, and make most of the investors feel good just in time to rip the rug out from under them and have them fall back down. I think that will happen. We get another bounce and then, boom, you get the selloff that goes deeper.

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.07; +0.04

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 37.6% versus 37.0%. Edged higher as the market bounced early in the week. Still on the trend lower, down from 45.2% in the past three weeks. 35% is considered bullish. Getting there rapidly. Well below the 5 year high at 62.0. Fading back from the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 28.0% versus 26.0%. Continuing the climb after that big upside burst last week from 22.6%. Passed the 23.1% hit to start April and putting the moves on 28.3% from September 2010, just as the market pulled out of that base. The 35% level is considered bullish for the market overall. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: -33.86 points (-1.26%) to close at 2652.89
Volume: 2.85B (+37.81%)

Up Volume: 761.09M (-368.91M)
Down Volume: 2.21B (+1.556B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.4 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.14 to 1

New Highs: 65 (+21)
New Lows: 53 (-18)





Stats: -15.05 points (-1.17%) to close at 1268.45
NYSE Volume: 1.142B (+8.87%)

Up Volume: 871.03M (-598.97M)
Down Volume: 3.7B (+1.08B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.76 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.55 to 1

New Highs: 88 (+20)
New Lows: 112 (-59)




Stats: -115.42 points (-0.96%) to close at 11934.58
Volume DJ30: 280M shares Friday versus 207M shares Thursday.



Next week there is a load of economic data. We have Personal Income and Spending, which is always important. Case/Shiller and Consumer Confidence is out on Tuesday. Pending Home Sales on Wednesday. Thursday there are Initial Jobless Claims and then the Chicago PMI. There is also the ISM on Friday. That is the national manufacturing, ant that will be very important. It is expected to come in just over the 50 level, the threshold for expansion and contraction. At 51 it could still be expanding. I do not think it will contract. There are only two regions, and they only did it this month as well. It usually takes a month or two before the national reflects that. If they keep heading down, of course it will go negative. That would be a blow to everybody -- the current administration and all of us. It is not good at all.

There is a lot of data out, and we are also getting very close to earnings season. Have you noticed that there have been few warnings and most of them have been positive? They are talking about how good things will be, so we might have a decent summertime earnings season. It is very possible because we still had a low dollar. We may be having some lower energy prices, although they will not factor into this as much. As we know, oil had already broken its trend before the SPRO was opened. That is our little secret I guess. It peaked back in late April, so you would say there has been a goodly amount of reduced energy prices during this quarter. That would help the bottom line for most every company out there.

There is the potential that we get upside surprises yet again. That would be a boost of confidence even if it does not boost the market. This is a tough time of the year for the market, but we have late-summer rallies. We are getting set up for a late-summer move. Yes, the fabled summertime rally that everyone looks for and often never sees. It does happen, and it is usually in July into August before things get gnarly in September and October.

There are setups for upside, and then there are setups for upside. If we look at what the market is showing us right now after this pullback since the late-April peak, we are getting a setup. We are holding old support, holding the 200 day EMA that has risen below the indices. They are in position to rally. Do they rally on the numbers? They usually start rallying ahead of time. If we go into next week with few warnings, the market starts to sniff out that it may be a good earnings season. Then you start your rally before the numbers come out. You get a few boosts on the actually numbers, the rally holds for awhile, and then it runs its course and starts to roll over into September and October. That sets up nicely.

That leads me right back to where I started the day, looking at a frustrating week. The market was up, down, looked like it was going to go back up, but then it could not make the move. That is okay. We are still in a position to make that rally. We have exposure upside and downside. We have some plays we can throw either way. We are well-represented right now. We do not have to take a lot of new plays. We will have some plays to look at, but we will not go crazy looking for every little play out there. That would not be productive at this point. We have very good stocks that can move for us. They are in positions to do so.

We have already taken gain on quite a few of those positions. If we get another good move to the upside, that is just lagniappe. We will look for more positions. There will be some to the upside and some to the downside. I want to play the break whichever way it comes. Things are frustrating. People are getting frustrated in the market. You can see the traders and the financial stations getting that way. That is good. The market will break one way or the other. I think there is still a good possibility for an upside break before it rolls over hard once more. That will make us some money to the upside. I am not against that. I am not against making money to the downside either.

As a matter of fact, I am pretty much for making money regardless. That is what I'll try to do for you, and what you have hopefully been able to accomplish. I will see you on Monday, and we will see if that bounce delivers. When it does, do not get greedy. Take the gains and enjoy the move. Dump the positions that are not working too well that we get a better exit point on. Then play the downside if things roll over.

Have a great weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2652.89

2676 is the January 2010 low
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
The 50 day EMA at 2730
2759 is the May low
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak. Key.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak
2956 from November 2000
3026 from October 2000 low
3042 is the May 2000 low

The 200 day SMA at 2652
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak

S&P 500: Closed at 1268.45
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
The 50 day EMA at 1305
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak

The 200 day SMA at 1263
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak

Dow: Closed at 11,934.58
The 50 day EMA at 12,239
12,283 is the March 2011 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,605 is the mid-May 2011 high
12,876 is the May high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
The 200 day SMA at 11,777
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak

Economic Calendar

June 21 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, May (10:00): 4.81M actual versus 4.78M expected, 5.00M prior (revised from 5.05M)

June 22 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 06/17 (07:00): -5.9% actual versus +13.0% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, April (10:00): 0.8% actual versus -0.4% prior (revised from -0.3%)
Crude Inventories, 06/18 (10:30): -1.711M actual versus -3.406M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, June (12:30): 0.25% actual versus 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

June 23 - Thursday
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 429K actual versus 413K expected, 420K prior (revised from 414K)
New Home Sales, May (10:00): -2.1%, 319K actual versus 305K expected, 323K prior

June 24 - Friday
Q1 GDP, third estimate (8:30): 1.9% actual versus 1.9% expected, 1.8% prior
Durable Goods Orders, May (8:30): 1.9% actual versus 1.5% expected, -2.7% prior (revised from -3.6%)
Durables ex-Transports (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.7% expected, -0.4% prior (revised from -1.6%)

June 27 - Monday
Personal Income, May (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Personal Spending, May (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
PCE Prices - Core, May (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior

June 28 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, April (09:00): -3.9% expected, -3.61% prior
Consumer Confidence, June (10:00): 60.3 expected, 60.8 prior

June 29 - Wednesday
Pending home sales, May (10:00): 2.0% expected, -11.6% prior. Oooh, that is reaching out with hope and change.
Crude oil inventories (10:30): -1.71M prior

June 30 - Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 420K expected, 429K prior
Chicago PMI (9:45): 53.5 expected, 56.6 prior

July 1 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment Final, June (9:55): 71.8 expected, 71.8 prior
ISM Index, June (10:00): 51.1 expected, 53.5 prior
Construction Spending, May (10:00): -0.5% expected, 0.4% prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2011 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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