Gold Explodes Higher

SUMMARY:

- Nondescript session to end the month, but it was a golden month.
- Gold, already on a tear, explodes higher after Bernanke press conference while the dollar suffers its worst decline in 20 years.
- Personal income and spending decent as Michigan sentiment recovers.
- Chicago PMI sags, joining other lackluster recent data.
- New month, new money, more upside?

MARKET SUMMARY

Another slow session but a very solid month for stocks and gold, but of course not the dollar.

Much as Thursday, it was a nondescript session to end the month. It did not tarnish the fact that it was quite a gold month, however. There are a few reasons to call it a gold month, one being that gold was exploding higher. Stocks were also moving up very well. They say it was one of the best Aprils in 20 years. That is a relatively meaningless statistic other than to show that we made a lot of money. Once again we had a good month, and that was where some of the other gold came in. No real complaints even though the market was rather boring to end the week and the month.

Stocks managed to post gains overall, though there was some drag in the large-cap technology sector thanks to RIMM's earnings. Earnings were driving much of the action, particularly in the industrials. Anything tied to the overseas trade or commodities was doing well. CAT says it is on its way to the best year in the history of the company. It is blowing away earnings and blowing away guidance.

GT announced strong earnings and guidance, noting trucking companies are finally replacing the tires on their vehicle fleets. They have cannibalized the trucks they mothballed during the recession, but now those tires are worn out and need replacing. Thus business is booming. CVX also reported great earnings. Nice gains down the entire list of announcers. We are about three-fourths through the S&P 500 earnings season, and earnings look good overall.

NASDAQ, +0.04%; SP500, +0.25%; Dow, +0.4%; SP600, +0.15%; SOX, +0.5%; NASDAQ 100, -0.25%. NASDAQ 100 was dragged down by RIMM and some other stocks that are struggling a bit in tech.

The day was very similar to Thursday with a modest start; indeed, trading lower early but then recovering and rallying through the end of the day. It was not the same altogether. Looking back at Thursday, it rallied into the close while there was some weakness on Friday. Some profit taking. Then as soon as stocks tested, they bounced back up toward the close. It was a positive move, but it looks tired after such a strong, solid move to the upside.

NASDAQ has rallied nicely off of the February low. It broke out, as did SP500, but it is bumping into a longer-term resistance point right now. You would expect it to slow down after such a good move. SP500 showed a little better on the day. It is still looking a bit extended. We will see what happens going forward. We have a new month coming next week, so we may get an additional rise as new money hits the market. We have been seeing that at the start of the month. After that, with this extended run, we may finally get that test of the breakout above the February highs. If it gives us that test, it will set up some new buy points.

Were we buying much or doing much of anything on Friday? Yes and no. We were buying some positions, but not many. We just moved in here and there on some good bounces from stocks in good patterns. We were also taking gain and banked nice profit across the board. For example, TRLG had a nice gap to the upside. A breakaway move. We have seen quite a few of those, and we banked some very nice 30% gain on the stock and almost 200% on the options.

We are seeing this pattern in the ones we like to play. We have seen gaps higher, and we were looking to play them after the breakaway move to the upside. PII made a big gap to the upside, and now it is in that tight lateral range. It is waiting for the 10 day EMA to catch up with it and likely be the catalyst to send it continuing in the direction of the gap.

It was more of the same with respect to the stock indices. They got liquidity reassurance when Ben Bernanke gave his press conference on Wednesday. He basically told the investors that, while he would not continue QE II, he would continue with a different form of Quantitative Easing by keeping the Fed's balance sheet at its current size. And that size is bloated. They will reinvest the income from mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries that the Fed owns, of course, by virtue of buying all of them. The liquidity will stay, and stocks continued to perform.


OTHER MARKETS

The other markets maintained the same moves based upon Chairman Ben's liquidity binge. Maybe "Ben's binge" can be my new catchphrase.

Dollar: 1.4815 versus 1.4819 Euro. The dollar was basically flat it rose against the Euro slightly. For reference, the dollar closed at 1.4554 Euro last week. Those are huge moves in a currency, particularly in just one week. The dollar index closed a bit lower, but it looks like it could bounce after a pretty sharp two weeks to the downside.

The dollar has lost 10% over the last five months. It is the worst decline in about 20 years. A sickening drop for all of us dollar holders who have to buy commodities denominated in dollars. It does not look like there is any respite for the dollar. Look how stretched it is to the downside. It has been bouncing down the 20 day EMA, and it is well below its typical bounce at this juncture. It is more or less matching the late-February/early-March rundown. We can anticipate a bounce back at some point, probably starting next week.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds: 3.29% versus 3.31% 10 year US Treasury. Bonds were up again. Note how the bonds have been bouncing around in a range all week. One day they were at 3.35, and then they were at 3.31. The next day they are at 3.35 again. Back and forth, all the while holding this elevated level that is above where they were during the germination of the Egyptian crisis, before it broke. Something else is worrying the bond market. I am not sure what it is. Syria is getting out of control. I have a feeling that the problem in Syria will leapfrog to another country. I think the bond market is trying to tell us it may be Saudi Arabia. Looking at the pattern, there is an inverted head and shoulders. Bonds still look like they want to move to the upside.

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Gold: $1,556.30, +25.10. Gold had an explosive day. After hours it was up even more, over $32. Gold is exploding to the upside. It may be getting ready to top, but maybe it will not. There is the bond market problem. There is the inflation worry with gold coupled with a fear trade. This is exploding higher. As the dollar has careened sharply lower and is due for a bounce back to the upside, you would believe that gold would do the same given its meteoric rise over the last month.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil: $113.84, +0.93. Oil is relatively calm right now. It is not really falling, but it is not exploding to the upside either. It was up on Friday, however. It is at the prior peak. That is where it sold off last time because we had some demand destruction. We will see if that is the case this time. Frankly, I am starting to think about where I drive along with many other people I have talked to.

My vehicles do not necessarily get a lot of gas mileage. I live on some acreage, so I need some trucks to pull timber, gravel, etc. We have big four-wheel drive vehicles in my family, and we are starting to think about it. We do not just drive around looking for something anymore. We let our fingers do the walking on the web or call around to see where to get the hay or whatever we need. It is definitely having an impact. At this level, I think we will see some demand destruction again. The question is, with the problems in Syria and elsewhere, will there be any depletion in pressure that would allow oil to fall? It certainly does not seem eager to do that while breaking to a new rally high.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

INTERNALS.

Volume. Volume was up big. Up 21% on NASDAQ to 2.43B. It rose modestly, just 1.5% on the NYSE. We had some earnings out in both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. As usual the negative results garner the most volume, such as RIMM. CAT and others posted great numbers, but they did not have the commensurate type of volume.

CAT traded on almost 12M shares, and that was higher than average. Looking at RIMM, it traded almost 50M shares when its average session is 9.7M. The downside volume got the most press and moved the internals the most. Thus, you do not want to take too much solace from the fact that NASDAQ posted a modest gain on rising volume. Indeed, it would be more of a churning situation where you have so much volume and it went nowhere at a resistance point. That would suggest that NASDAQ wants to come back down and test the breakout. As noted, that would be normal.

Breadth. Breadth was 2:1 on the NYSE. Not bad at all. NASDAQ was mediocre at 1.2:1 advancers over decliners. Not a lot of umph in the techs, but they are not lagging. They are moving lockstep with the SP500.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 has had a nice nearly-two-week run to the upside. After the breakout this week, it powered higher. Decent volume, back to average or a bit better. Solid action and still moving higher. No issues here. It broke out and avoided an immediate reversal. It has continued to put distance on the breakout point. It will come back and probably test it, but we are halfway through earnings. It is typical to get a nice run if the earnings are solid. Now it might use the rest of the earnings season to test a bit. It is looking very solid at this point.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ is similar. It has moved up after its breakout as well. It has rallied and is putting distance on its February peak. It is pausing a bit here, running into a bit of resistance. It would be normal for it to fade as well. There is that higher volume, and the indices showed a doji on the session. That would suggest that there is a little pullback ahead, but it is nothing nefarious at this point.

SP600. The small caps added a bit on top as well with a 0.16% gain. There is an even more pronounced doji on the SP600 as it broke to a new all-time high this week. After that move, it is pretty much on top of a two-week run with this doji. You would expect a bit of a pullback come next week, maybe after some new money hits.

SOX. Semiconductors had a 0.5% gain. Did not do much, but I like what I am seeing. There is a break above the recent peaks that were holding it back from late March and early April. It is working laterally in a narrowing range, and it is showing positive action. We are seeing several semiconductors stocks looking better, such as NVDA. It is also coming off of a support level and moving nicely. There are others out there as well. The SOX may be able to get some support and actually reengage and join the party.


LEADERSHIP

Industrial. If you are talking about the market, you have to talk about CAT on Friday with its gap to the upside. It did not go anywhere after gapping, but it reported a boffo quarter. There is a breakaway gap, so the question is whether it will continue here or if the doji will create problems. Is it tired and ready to fall? Hard to tell at this point. It has had two deeper tests than normal, but it is continuing its trend it just may not be at the same accelerated pace it was before it started to get choppy in February. DE posted a nice gain, bouncing off the 10 day EMA. The industrials and anything tied to overseas or commodity businesses performed quite well.

Financial. Financials are still in the doghouse as far as I'm concerned. JPM is sitting on top of its 50 day EMA after a week and a half rally right into the teeth of a trading range. We will have to see what happens to it at this point. WFC is trying to hold over its 200 day EMA. Nothing spectacular there. BAC is moving laterally, below resistance. There is nothing here. They are not providing any kind of help at all.

I understand there are more puts being bought on the XLF, the financial services ETF. It has had a rebound as some of its components have rallied. It is right at a downtrend line. You have some people taking puts on it, and I have been looking as well. There is a possibility it will roll back down. There are two patterns at work here. There is a double bottom trying to come up, and you have this trendline. How it fares at that point will tell us if we should try to play it to the upside as it breaks that trend or back to the downside.

Technology. AAPL is making a higher low in its trading range. It gapped up on earnings and it has come back to fill a lot of that gap, holding at the 10 day EMA. It is trying to move higher on volume now. This is very interesting. Of course that was in response to RIMM's poor earnings results, but that is the way the market works. I like what I see with AAPL. We may have to play another upside move with it.

GOOG continues trying to make a comeback after it imploded on its earnings. It has come back up to the gap point now. We have to watch it for a potential downside play. As it made this price low, note that MACD did not make a price low. There was a shift in momentum. Similar to the XLF, we have to watch how it handles the point where it gapped. This will tell us what we can do with respect to an upside play that fills this gap or a downside play that continues GOOG's woes.

CRM is in an excellent pullback. A higher-low flag inside of its trading range. Very nice. We would anticipate playing this to the upside for a breakout. We already have some positions in it. It is a possibility for another play to the upside if you have not jumped into the stock at this point.

While some technology stocks are down, they are trying to set up and rally and bolster the NASDAQ's prospects for continuing a move to the upside. NTGR gapped to the upside on earnings today and made us a bundle of money. That was a sweet move that we enjoyed. There are other stocks performing well in tech that I want to call out because they are symbolic of the moves we are seeing. SIMO reported nice earnings and is moving to the upside. CTSH is ready to break back to the upside after a consolidation. Very solid action. INFA is in the midst of a strong run. I understand why NASDAQ has broken out and moved higher; a lot of the main names may not be leading to new highs, but a lot of strong stocks are.

Retail. BWLD is continuing a very strong move to the upside. TRLG had a nice gap to the upside a breakaway move that made us some outstanding money today with that rally. DDS continues to look good. It is just pausing after a strong week. JCP is not as strong as DDS, but there are steady movements to the upside. We are still getting money moving into the retail sector even though gasoline continues to move higher.

There are problems in the bond market. Gold is running higher, the dollar is running lower, and gasoline is moving to the upside. Yet retail stocks continue to build in gains in the future. Should you argue with it? Do you say it cannot continue because it does not make any sense? Often it does not make sense. Your gut may tell you one thing and the patterns in the market tell you another. Will you make money if you do not pay attention to what the stocks are doing? No. William O'Neil used to talk about red dresses and yellow dresses. The red dresses may have been made better or had a better style to them, but if everyone wants the yellow dresses, it does not matter. They want the yellow and they will bid the price up. That is what you have to go with.


THE ECONOMY

Personal income and spending decent as Michigan sentiment recovers.

Chicago PMI sags, joining other lackluster recent data.


TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:

Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.html



THE MARKET

VIX. Volatility is quite low. It has broken below the levels hit from late 2010 and early 2011. That would seem to suggest that we are due for a pullback. The last time volatility broke below this level, SP500 had sold off. Then it rebounded and volatility has now faded after that selloff. It bounced and now it has faded once again. The volatility has moved back down as the SP500 has broken to a new rally high. It suggests it might try to fall. It suggests that, but it is not a guarantee.

Interestingly, the markets were up on Friday and volatility was up as well. That is not typical movement. If you see volatility rise when the market rises, that is a warning flag. I am not saying it is a long-term bad signal. It is just a near-term interesting feature that could indicate that the market is ready to pull back. Looking at SP500 and the length of the run it has made of breaking out, a pullback to test that move would be normal.

Do not get wrapped up when people are talking about the VIX and how it was up on a day that the market was up. It is not making those big runs higher. If it ran higher for three or four weeks with the market, that would be worrisome. Right now, it just suggests that the market may be overbought and may want to come back to test the move. You always need to look at the charts when looking at volatility. You have to compare it to what is going on with the market itself. It looks like it could be due for a pullback.

VIX: 14.75; +0.13
VXN: 16.54; +0.34
VXO: 14.06; +0.52

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.93; +0.1

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 54.3% versus 54.2%. After falling the past three weeks Bulls held basically steady, not buying into the continued upside move in the markets. Like the wall of worry so to speak even if it is at an elevated level. Still close to that 60+ level that indicates some trouble for a bull run. Hit 55.1% in January and 58.8% on the December high on this leg. It is matching those readings in a string of high readings but below the 5 year high at 62.0. Fading back from the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. This is where you start to be careful and watch for breakdowns, but there is also a lot of liquidity being pushed into the market and that can continue the move despite excess bullishness. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 18.5% versus 19.2%. Not buying into recent rally but not as negative as they were the prior week. Still up sharply from 16.3% three weeks back. The pullback from the February peak unnerved some investors as likely did the surge in gasoline, oil, and gold. Down from 23.1% to start April, but making their way back. Fell like a stone on that decline, moving below the April 2010 low. 28.3% in September 2010. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +1.01 points (+0.04%) to close at 2873.54
Volume: 2.439B (+21.26%)

Up Volume: 1.37B (+330M)
Down Volume: 1.33B (+454.57M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.23 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.27 to 1

New Highs: 201 (+24)
New Lows: 29 (0)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +3.13 points (+0.23%) to close at 1363.61
NYSE Volume: 972.47M (+1.51%)

Up Volume: 540.56M (-43.12M)
Down Volume: 363.32M (-170K)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.03 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.63 to 1

New Highs: 667 (-30)
New Lows: 83 (+4)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +47.23 points (+0.37%) to close at 12810.54
Volume DJ30: 378M shares Friday versus 149M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

Next week will be packed with a lot of economic data just as this week was, but it will be the big boys, so to speak. It all leads up to that Friday nonfarm payrolls report. We will get to see what the unemployment rate is. Right now it is expected to come in at 8.8% again. Can it last? Not with the initial jobless claims moving back up over 400K for the past three weeks. They are anticipated to be at 400K this week. That would make it a month of 400K or more, and that is not good for the jobs market and the unemployment report.

People start feeling better and want to come into the job market. As soon as they start looking around, they find there are not that many jobs. Then the unemployment rate will rise and everyone will get gloomy again. That is part of the recovery process, however. We need to recognize it for what it is and deal with it.

There are a lot of important stories out. The ISM starts the week, and that will be important. Manufacturing has led the recovery, and it is expected to fall below 60. That is still a high level, do not get me wrong. But it does shows that the momentum is slowing. We know the momentum is slowing when looking at Q1 and the first few reports we have seen of Q2. This will be a big one. If it slows down as expected or is worse that shows that Q2 is starting off on the wrong foot.

Factory orders are on Tuesday, and they could mean something. I do not expect much from the Challenger job cuts. ADP employment has been adjusted and may be a bit more accurate. They are expecting a good-sized gain. Note how the nonfarm private payrolls are mirroring that. What do you know? They should mirror each other if they are accurate. I do not pay much attention to ISM Services; no one seems to unless it gets really ugly. Continuing claims and initial claims will be watched closely along with productivity. As noted, it all leads up to the nonfarm payroll on Friday. There will also be scads of earnings.

As noted, we are only halfway through the earnings season. Half the SP500 stocks have reported, so we still have half to go, and it will be May. It is no longer just an April earnings season. It runs through mid-May as well because some big names announce in the following month. We will have earnings also driving the action. What often happens when you get a move one way or the other in the initial phase of earnings? You get halfway through, everyone knows the gist, and then the earnings do not have the same impact.

While individual stocks have been blasting off and providing those breakaway gaps that we can play, overall the move is slow. It makes sense after almost two weeks of upside. Remember, the market sold off into earnings and set itself up beautifully for this rally on good results. This is all a very solid technical setup. The facts came out in support of a move higher, and we have had that.

Now can the news be good enough to continue stocks upward without wanting to come back and test? There are a number of reasons that would suggest that stocks will come back and test. Number one, there is the two-week run. Number two, we are getting a little churn on both the SP500 and the NASDAQ. Number three, we broke through resistance; after such a long run, it has a tendency to want to come back and test that move.

The market does not have a lot of new ideas to create that next impetus to get it to break higher. Down around at this level back in mid-April, I was saying how the market needed impetus to move higher. It needed a catalyst, and it got it with the earnings. Now what is next? Peace in Libya? In Syria? That would help. A good jobs report might help, too, but it will have to pull back at some point. A lot of leaders that have been leading the move are stretched. As noted, there are others ready to move after taking a back seat for awhile.

Again, there is AAPL. Again, you have CRM. There are others out there that are the same. They are at a point where they have gone through a base or a trading range or making higher lows. They look ready to make a break to the upside and will take that baton of leadership as others are testing back after good runs. That is how a rally works. New waves of stocks come back up. They can be recycled ones that were leaders and got a bit too far ahead, and then they needed a rest. Now they are ready to move again. Or there are brand new ones coming up. After forming long bases, are ready to break out. That is great leadership.

You take what you can again both in leadership and in the market. We still see them coming up. That means this week, despite the fact that the market has rallied considerably, we will continue to look for upside plays. We may get that pullback on NASDAQ, SP500, and all the indices pretty much. But I do not think it will be any kind of cataclysmic selloff. I think it would come back to test the breakout. That would be totally normal, and it would also set up more stocks to move higher. Leaders that are extended come back and test, and they get ready to break back to the upside. They take a pause that refreshes and move on.

We will continue to look to the upside. It is tough to get in front of this market right now. There are not a lot of stocks that are in trouble. Just as we had gaps to the upside breakaways that we are looking to play we have breakaways to the downside that we will be looking to play as well. The problem is, in this kind of market, even if you get a breakaway move to the downside there is so much money coming into the market. After awhile, it flows back into these stocks because they have to put their money somewhere. They tend to drag them along back to the upside with the rest of the market no matter how bad it looked.

Look at GOOG. They are dragging it back up. It is at that critical point. Can it move through the gapdown point? You understand what I am saying. With all the liquidity out there, a lot of downside plays do not stay downside for long. If they make a quick hit and you can make some money, that is great. But playing a long downtrend is tough unless you are looking at the US dollar.

In any event, you see what I am talking about. We have the stock market, whatever index you are looking at other than the SOX (although even the SOX looks like it might want to move to the upside) you have big moves that are in progress. They have been under way for a couple of weeks. If we get a pullback, it is likely to be one that tests rather than a reversal.

Again, we will continue to look for plays to the upside. Our preferred course of events is that we get an additional move higher to start next week the new money for May. Then we get a pullback to test. We will use any further move to the upside to take more gain as we have been doing on this move thus far. We will focus on newer stocks that we have not taken gain on (or just taken a little bit of gain on) that are making great moves. Then we will look for the pullback. We will probably not be too wild about buying a lot of positions on a continued move to the upside.

If we see good stocks like CRM or AAPL that are in position and start to move, we will not back off. We will buy some positions, but we will not load the boat. Then if we get a pullback, we can add some more. We will not back away from good stocks in position to move, but overall we will anticipate something of a pullback. At the same time, we know that rallies and selloffs can continue much further than any rational person would expect. That is why we buy when we see good stocks in good position saying, "Buy me." With that, I will see you on Monday. We will see just how much new money comes into the market.

Have a great weekend!



Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2873.54

Resistance:
2956 from November 2000
3026 from October 2000 low
3042 is the May 2000 low

Support:
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
The 10 day EMA at 2830
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2816 is the early April peak
2802 is the early March intraday peak
2796 is the February gap down point
The 50 day EMA at 2767
2762 is the February low
2729 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low
2686 is the recent January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2603 is the March 2011 low
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2550 from May and June 2008 peaks
The 200 day SMA at 2548
2540 is the gap up point from early November


S&P 500: Closed at 1363.61
Resistance:
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low

Support:
1344 is the February 2011 peak
The 10 day EMA at 1343
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March peak
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
The 50 day EMA at 1318
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1220


Dow: Closed at 12,810.54
Resistance:
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

Support:
The 10 day EMA at 12,573
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,283 is the March 2011 peak is bending
The 50 day EMA at 12,264
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 11,388


Economic Calendar

April 29 - Friday
Personal Income, March (08:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
Personal Spending, March (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.9% prior (revised from 0.5%)
PCE Prices - Core, March (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Employment Cost Index, Q1 (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior
Chicago PMI, April (09:45): 67.6 actual versus 68.0 expected, 70.6 prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, April (09:55): 69.8 actual versus 69.6 expected, 69.6 prior

May 02 - Monday
Construction Spending, March (10:00): 0.0% expected, -1.4% prior
ISM Index, April (10:00): 59.7 expected, 61.2 prior
Auto Sales, May (15:00): 4.75M prior
Truck Sales, May (15:00): 5.19 prior

May 03 - Tuesday
Factory Orders, March (10:00): 1.9% expected, -0.1% prior

May 04 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 04/29 (07:00): -5.6% prior
Challenger Job Cuts, April (07:30): -38.6% prior
ADP Employment Change, April (08:15): 200K expected, 201K prior
ISM Services, April (10:00): 57.3 expected, 57.3 prior
Crude Inventories, 04/30 (10:30): 6.156M prior

May 05 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 04/30 (08:30): 400K expected, 429K prior
Continuing Claims, 04/23 (08:30): 3638 expected, 3641K prior
Productivity-Preliminary, Q1 (08:30): 1.0% expected, 2.6% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q1 (08:30): 0.8% expected, -0.6% prior

May 06 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, April (08:30): 183K expected, 216K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, April (08:30): 200K expected, 230K prior
Unemployment Rate, April (08:30): 8.8% expected, 8.8% prior
Hourly Earnings, April (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Average Workweek, April (08:30): 34.3 expected, 34.3 prior
Consumer Credit, March (15:00): $5.0B expected, $7.6B prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2011 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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