- Market apparently comfortable with Libya, continues the Thursday rebound.
- GDP misses its mark as government spending falls and inventories plunge.
- Michigan sentiment, while not showing good cheer, improves much more than expected.
- Some key leaders looking a bit bearish.
- News filled week sets up a rubber match for the rebound attempt.
MARKET SUMMARY
OTHER MARKETS
Dollar: 1.3751 versus 1.3803.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds: 3.41% versus 3.45%.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold: 1409.70, -6.10
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil: 97.97, 0.69
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 19.22; -2.1
VXN: 20.64; -3.03
VXO: 17.81; -2.1
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.83; -0.16
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 53.3% versus 52.2%. Bounced back up after a slight dip from 53.4%. Back up, but not surging to the upside. Bulls are still below the 55.1% hit in January and the 58.8% high on this leg. Still at a high level in a string of high readings but below the 5 year high at 62.0. Fading back from the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. This is where you start to be careful and watch for breakdowns, but there is also a lot of liquidity being pushed into the market and that can continue the move despite excess bullishness. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 18.9% versus 19.6%. Continuing the decline after that sharp drop from 23.3% three weeks back. Well below the 28.3% in September, back at the level where they dallied for a month in December and January. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +43.15 points (+1.58%) to close at 2781.05
Volume: 1.817B (-9.06%)
Up Volume: 1.622B (+237.478M)
Down Volume: 266.865M (-421.486M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.92 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.51 to 1
New Highs: 91 (+39)
New Lows: 19 (-21)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +13.78 points (+1.06%) to close at 1319.88
NYSE Volume: 952.991M (-21.93%)
Up Volume: 815.196M (+305.743M)
Down Volume: 131.655M (-565.29M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.27 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.1 to 1
New Highs: 174 (+45)
New Lows: 16 (-15)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +61.95 points (+0.51%) to close at 12130.45
Volume DJ30: 147M shares Friday versus 191M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2781.05
Resistance:
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
Support:
2762 is the February low
2735 from late 2007 interim peak
2729 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
2725 from July 2007 interim peak
The 50 day EMA at 2718
2688 is the recent January low
2676 is the January 2010 low
2593 is the November 2010 high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2550 from May and June 2008 peaks
2540 is the gap up point from early November
2535.28 is the April 2010 intraday peak
2530 is the April 2010 closing peak
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2511 is the lower range of the November gap up point
2482 is the recent October peak
2460 is the November 2010 low.
The 200 day SMA at 2432
S&P 500: Closed at 1319.88
Resistance:
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
Support:
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
The 50 day EMA at 1288
1278 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
1275 is the January 2010 low
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1185 from late September 2008
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1173 is the November 2010 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
The 200 day SM A at 1169
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
Dow: Closed at 12,130.45
Resistance:
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
Support:
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
11,893, from March 2008 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 11,898
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,258 is the April 2010 peak
11,205 is the April closing high
11,100 from the 7-08 low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
The 200 day SMA at 10,935
10,920 is the recent May high
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
February 25 - Friday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q4 (08:30): 2.8% actual versus 3.3% expected, 3.2% prior
GDP Deflator - Second, Q4 (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Michigan Sentiment -Final, February (09:55): 77.5 actual versus 75.1 expected, 75.1 prior
February 28 - Monday
Personal Income, January (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Personal Spending, January (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.7% prior
PCE Prices - Core, January (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Chicago PMI, February (09:45): 67.5 expected, 68.8 prior
Pending Home Sales, December (10:00): -3.2% expected, 2.0% prior
March 01 - Tuesday
Construction Spending, January (10:00): -0.6% expected, -2.5% prior
ISM Index, February (10:00): 60.5 expected, 60.8 prior
Auto Sales, March (15:00): 3.95M prior
Truck Sales, March (15:00): 5.64M prior
March 02 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 02/25 (07:00): +13.2% prior
Challenger Job Cuts, February (07:30): -46.1% prior
ADP Employment Change, February (08:15): 163K expected, 187K prior
Crude Inventories, 02/26 (10:30): 0.822M prior
March 03 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 02/26 (08:30): 400K expected, 391K prior
Continuing Claims, 02/19 (08:30): 3800K expected, 3790K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q4 (08:30): 2.3% expected, 2.6% prior
Unit Labor Costs - R, Q4 (08:30): -0.3% expected, -0.6% prior
ISM Services, February (10:00): 59.0 expected, 59.4 prior
March 04 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, February (08:30): 180K expected, 36K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, February (08:30): 193K expected, 50K prior
Unemployment Rate, February (08:30): 9.1% expected, 9.0% prior
Average Workweek, February (08:30): 34.3 expected, 34.2 prior
Hourly Earnings, February (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Factory Orders, January (10:00): 2.1% expected, 0.2% prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2011 | All Rights Reserved
Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com
Technorati tags: stock trading stock market investing Jon Johnson InvestmentHouse.com
No comments:
Post a Comment