- China clouds once again form over the market, but buyers use the dip to buy on volume.
- Economic data not as good as hoped, better than thought on Friday, but the movement still points to improvement.
- Michigan Preliminary Sentiment disappoints but Capacity and Production are solid.
- Leadership across the market jumps with chips leading the way.
- Market shows every intention to continue to rally to next resistance. Perfect. Just be skeptical.
Friday provides plenty of follow through to the new SP500 resistance break.
The stock market had a sluggish start. It was sluggish well into the night primarily because China raised its bank reserve lending requirements by 50BP. That is the fourth time in the last two months. Every time China takes a step to slow down its economy, it has deleterious effects on the rest of the markets in the world because of China's voracious growth appetite. It wants commodities, industrial equipment, and everything it can get its hands on.
Governments are typically not that successful in their ability to manage a slowdown. When they try, it worries investors and prices come out of the market. Even with the sluggishness, US futures were improving in the wee hours toward the open. This even though there were some not-too-great numbers with respect to retail sales and the CPI. That did not slow the market down; it continued its improvement into the open.
It tested down initially but then continued the rally unabated, although there was a hitch in the get-along half an hour into the session. The Michigan Sentiment preliminary for January came in at 72.7, well off the 75.5 anticipated. Note how the market sold back just as it hit the closing price from Thursday, at a technical resistance point. There was reason to stall with the news, but it overcame it. It rallied higher throughout the session. Nice action, indeed. Looking at the SP500 shows the sprint up to the close a bit clearer. Not bad action at all. No inclination to sell, and investors bought the entire day. NASDAQ, +0.75%; SP500, +0.75%; Dow, +0.5%; SP600, +1%; SOX, +2.7%; NASDAQ 100, +0.78%.
This was a fairly important move for the indices. The SP500 bumped up against the 127% Fibonacci extension and moved laterally for a week, but it did not stall out or roll back over. A lot of pundits thought it might do that. We kept an open mind about it. It was a perfect opportunity for a correction, but it didn't do it. It broke higher Wednesday, stalled a little on Thursday, and then continued to the upside on Friday. That has all the feel of a breakout, particularly when you look at the percentage gains as well as the increasing volume.
There were a lot of positive attributes to this move, and there is still room to the upside before SP500 hits the resistance from 2006, 2007, and 2008. There are peaks and valleys waiting for SP500 to hit them but they are still waiting. That gives SP500 extra room to move higher into earnings just as it is doing now. It may not last. It may not make the move stick, but it is having a great run. It is enjoying the first rounds of earnings and even overcoming some selling on Friday.
There was news contributing to the early depression in the market other than the Chinese data. The CPI for December came out hotter than expected. It rose 0.5% versus the 0.4% expected. The core was right in line at 0.1%. Food and energy is where most of the price increases are coming from, but we are told not to worry about that because they are stripped out and not part of the core. The problem is that the core consists of things that are not food and energy, such as flat-panel TVs and personal computers. These types of things declining in price, but we do not need to purchase them every day to survive. We do have to eat, and we do need gasoline and heating oil. We have to make it to work and heat our homes particularly given the weather of late.
We need to buy those things every day, but we are told by the economists in the government not to worry about it. They say we need to worry about PCs and flat panel TVs and whether those prices are going down. They don't put it exactly that way, but that is the sum total of it. Do you trust the economists and the government, or do you trust the numbers? I am not going to make any judgment calls, but I think you know what hits and really hurts in this struggling economy. Right now, it is food and energy, but it will bleed into other items. It takes energy to create steel and other items that go into the products we consume. Cotton is hitting all-time highs. Corn is surging. The clothes we wear, food we eat, and the petroleum we burn are all going up in price. There is no inflation, mind you.
The market was not buying into that, which is why there was some sluggishness on the day. Michigan Sentiment was also a problem. Industrial production was much better than expected at 0.8%, doubling the 0.4% anticipated. Capacity rose to 76%, up from 75.5%. That put it at its highest level since August of 2008. Remember, August of 2008 was right before it hit the fan. The SP500 was trading around 1260 on the first of August, before everything hit. Now we are closing at 1293. There are at least some parallels with the same SP500 price. It is the highest level on the capacity utilization since the market finally fell off in that big tumble right before all of the "stuff" hit the fan with the financial crisis. It was an ugly downdraft. It is nice to see things are coming back, but they are not coming back that fast. Hardly an inspiring recovery.
Business inventories turned out to be quite interesting at 0.2% when 0.8% were expected. Very similar to wholesale inventories. Companies are not excited to build up inventory, but sales are good. Sales are depleting inventory, and in theory that means there will ultimately be production to refill the coffers. We still have to go through an ugly 2011, most likely. The housing crisis slide that began in the summer of 2005 will probably crescendo in 2011 with foreclosures at the worst they have been. As is often the case, when the negatives hit their peaks (or what appear to be horrible numbers that will not get better), that is when the bottoms are put in. There is anticipation of a bottom in houses in 2011. That may just be a forecast where it cannot get any worse, so it is about time a bottom is hit. Sometimes those can be your most accurate forecasts.
Dollar: 1.3378 versus 1.3350 euro. The dollar appears to have set up a new short range from 79 to 81-82. Friday it looked ready to hold and turn back up once more.
Bonds: 3.32% versus 3.29% 10 year. Down on the session but still working laterally the past month, putting in a floor to rally from. That is in line with what gold is suggesting, that it is going to sell. Lower gold means lower interest rates (no inflation) and if bonds rally that means lower rates as well. That is the opposite of what Bernanke is saying about rising rates because of a rising economy. Bonds have not broken out yet, but they certainly look to be ready to do so.
Gold: 1359.00, -28.00. Doesn't look like any bounce for gold as it broke below its recent lows. Triple topped, tried to make a higher low once more, but failed. Better economic data may be read as requiring less government money printing, but with the fake Euro bond offerings that seems unlikely. Nonetheless, the markets typically do not lie.
Oil: 91.53, +0.13. Still very strong after another good week, and it held even with the China story.
Volume. Volume rose 3.5% on NASDAQ to slightly over 2B shares. Volume rose on a solid upside session. It was up 14% on the NYSE to 1.05B. Excellent volume trade.
Breadth. The advance/decline line was lackluster. The NASDAQ 100 topped the NASDAQ overall and shows up in the advance/declines at 1.75:1. The NYSE is not any better at 1.4:1. Even though the small caps are in the lead, it was not an overall broad move. That is worrisome, but a lot of financials were moving upside along with some big energy stocks, if it does not fan out a little more next week, it could be an issue, but I would not worry much about it now.
SP500. I am looking at the inverted head and shoulders of the summer. The rally from August into November, the consolidation through November, the new breakout and rally up through now. It is still moving higher and showing the right kind of action. Higher volume on the upside day. It broke out, it tested, and it rallied again. SP500 moved through the November peak and then came back and tested it. Then it rallied slowly, made it to the 127% extension. It moved laterally, broke higher, tested, and is continuing to the upside.
There is still room to the upside right now. It can go into the 1300's easily, and that carries it into the meat of earnings season. That would be normal. It may hit resistance at that point and then back off in the last half of earnings season. That is typical action I almost hate to talk about it because it seems too pat. It does look that way, however. Then again, the market can go further than you think. While we anticipate that might happen, we will just go with what the market tells us. We are ready for everything that could happen. We have many avenues, and we take it the way the market goes.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ is the same story. It stalled out, broke over the November peak, and tested. Then it stalled out below the 127% Fibonacci extension, gapped through it, and was up running again on Friday on rising volume. Great volume here, all that accumulation is now popping it to the upside as well.
SP600. SP600 rose to a new closing high on the rally. That was good to see as it gained almost a whole percent. It continues rallying up this trendline. Nice to see the small caps making that new high in the rally and following the large-cap indices.
SOX. SOX has been the true leader of late, and it added another 2.7% on Friday. It is surging to the upside. INTC's earnings did not help INTC that much, but it sure helped the chip equipment companies such as AMAT and NVLS. NVLS was moving really well and we banked some gain on it. The semiconductors are performing very well.
Indeed, all of the indices are doing well right now. They entered this new leg a little tentatively, but now they have made up their mind. They are really moving after breaking the 127% Fibonacci range. There will still be some resistance ahead, no doubt. It cannot be avoided, but it has been able to shoot down all resistance to this point. NASDAQ has broken through the two shoulders of its 2007-2008 head and shoulders pattern. Now it is taking aim at the head. Very strong action. It does not mean it will take that out, but it means it has a good run to it.
If we get to that level, we will probably have some more resistance. It would be a good point to take some gain off the table, or at least be a little lighter when you got there, having taken gain on the way. There will be a pullback before too long. We want to be light going into it, and we have been taking positions all the way up. With earnings, we may get to a point where we run out of good will to the upside.
Financial. JPM announced its earnings on the day and shot higher, but it could not hold all the gain. It was a nice move. It closed off the high oh, well. GS was up on the day. Very nice move. If you look at GS longer term, you can see an inverted head and shoulders that runs from mid-2009 to present. It looks like it will make a break from there, and that could propel it higher. If you go further back, you can see a bigger type of inverted head and shoulders. It is askew, but you can see the pattern. It looks very good for GS, and I am happy we are in it. We picked up some new positions this week. There are good things happening in financials. When good things happen in financials, good things happen to the SP500.
Energy. SP500 and energy go hand in hand. HAL was bouncing up off the 50 day EMA. We can handle that. XEC is moving up well yet again. What a week for that company. We have some XOM, too, and it is rallying on volume. It is hard to complain about the moves of these big guys.
Retail. PNRA is trying to make a bounce to the upside. It looked interesting, but it did not make the move. SKX is coming off of a long sell off. It looks decent for a rally to the upside. DECK looks like it may turn the tide and actually go to the upside. LULU has reported great earnings this week. It gapped to the upside, but it is at that December peak. It will be interesting to see what it can do at that level.
Industrial. Industrials are interesting. CAT has been moving four weeks in a lateral, flat range. Maybe this is just a good consolidation like it put together in September and October and rallied higher off of that. Sometimes after long runs these can be bearish. Just before the rollover in 2000-2001, a lot of stocks had rallied well, formed this pattern, and then rolled over. The market was done at that point, however, and it was ready to come back. I am not saying that is the case here. It should be an expanding market given the improving economy. Therefore, I will view CAT as maybe taking a breather for a new break higher. TERX had a nice break to the upside. A good week for it, but we missed it. Sometimes that happens.
Technology. AAPL had a big week. It was up, leading the large cap indices higher. AAPL has earnings next week, I believe on Tuesday after the close. We got a nice rally into earnings. If it continues higher, I think a lot of the VZ news will be built in. You might want to take more gain off the table if you have any options out there. You have good gain in them after the last two weeks. BMC started higher on Friday. It is looking pretty tasty. As noted yesterday, SNIC is also moving up quite well. There are several business software stocks making the move to the upside.
Semiconductors. Semiconductors are moving well. NVLS was screaming to the upside thanks to INTC and its anticipated expansion. It will need more chip equipment. TQNT is breaking to the upside as well. Very solid. AMAT was up almost 8% on the day. It was a very strong day for the semiconductors. No wonder SOX the rallying sharply to the upside.
Miscellaneous. EZPW surged to the upside on volume. It is still going strong in an economy that is supposed to be improving. These do improve as the economy starts to improve, however. Believe it or not, pawnshops are not the bad places they are made out to be. They handle a lot of business in neighborhoods and are performing quite well.
Along that line, look at the pattern in URI. It shows that people may not be buying a lot of equipment, but they are renting it for a job here and there. They may not want to invest in that big piece of equipment right now, but in 2011 they will be able to take credits on a lot of these purchases. It is not just expensing them, but taking credits; that is a big difference.
A credit is almost as good as money because it comes off the bottom line of your tax return. If you owe $10,000 in taxes and can buy something that costs $3000, you can get a credit for the entire amount. You will have saved almost a third of your tax bill for buying a piece of equipment. Then you actually have something. You are not giving the money to the government and getting nothing back. Let's face it: with our debt, it ain't coming back to you.
A credit allows you to take that money, reduce your tax bill by the very amount, and you get something that you need. Hard to argue with that. I love credits use them if you have them. Things like URI are going up now, but we may see actual buying thanks to programs that can help people buy what they need.
I have to go to the black-and-blue bottom stock of the week: CMG. We looked at it when it had no follow-through on the reversal, and it came back up. Then it reversed back into its support range and looked great, but then it faded down. Once again, it showed no follow-through to the downside and bounced higher on Thursday, so we did it again. Sometimes you just have to forget it and just do it. Sometimes it takes two or three times to get it right and get in, or at least have the patience to get in and stay in.
We jumped in CMG early on Friday, and it is starting to pay off. We got it at $2.30, so we have a little gain going in. This is a classic case of just having to stick with it. It does not matter how many times you try and do not succeed on something as long as you keep your losses small. When the opportunity comes back, be ready to make the move. Hopefully we will see some great returns from CMG on this run.
VIX. The VIX has dropped back down to the start of the Q2 2010 lows. That matches up with the lows of summer 2008 before the financial crisis sent volatility exploding higher. It is back to these levels, and that has people calling for corrections. When it is was down to this level before the summer of 2010 and that selloff, it led to a big spurt higher. It can lead to selling. The market is at a point where it has rallied nicely for two strong legs in a row. It is approaching next resistance. The problem is, it is not showing any signs that it wants to slow down right now. Volatility indicates that there could be a correction in an ongoing rally. It is not indicating there is a long-term major turn to the downside in the market. If volatility was rising higher as the stock market rallied higher, that would be a danger sign. I do not see danger now; I see a level that could indicate an interim correction coming. There is still room for SP500 to run to the upside before it hits next resistance.
VIX: 15.46; -0.93
VXN: 16.49; -0.96
VXO: 14.36; -1.11
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.57; -0.15
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 57.3% versus 54.5%. Back on the upside after a couple weeks of fade, but still below the 58.8% high on this leg. Dipped at year end as many anticipate a first of the year correction. Again you have to as if this is self-fulfilling given the market is still trending higher. Still high in a string of high readings but below the 5 year high at 62.0. Still bearish enough. Closing in on the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. This is where you start to be careful and watch for breakdowns, but there is also a lot of liquidity being pushed into the market and that can continue the move despite excess bullishness. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 19.1% versus 20.5%. Breaking lower after hanging around in the 20% for a few weeks. Down from 28.3% in September. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +20.01 points (+0.73%) to close at 2755.3
Volume: 1.952B (+3.58%)
Up Volume: 1.363B (+384.366M)
Down Volume: 656.207M (-287.003M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.76 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.27 to 1
New Highs: 233 (+26)
New Lows: 11 (0)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: +9.48 points (+0.74%) to close at 1293.24
NYSE Volume: 1.058B (+13.98%)
Up Volume: 759.955M (+399.018M)
Down Volume: 288.564M (-268.368M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.43 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.17 to 1
New Highs: 487 (+4)
New Lows: 211 (+52)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +55.48 points (+0.47%) to close at 11787.38
Volume DJ30: 200M shares Friday versus 162M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
The market is closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. Tuesday will open with the Empire Manufacturing Index out of New York. We will have some housing market sentiment. On Wednesday we will see the usual stories about mortgage purchases, but then it will kick into building permits and housing starts. While they are important, they really do not mean anything at this stage.
We do not want to see them higher right now. They have been volatile, and volatility is a sign of change. We will have to see. We do not want the builders building a lot of new homes. If they get that confidence, that is always worrisome. If they are confident enough to build right now, however, more power to them. I guess I have to say that simply because someone has to be doing something in this economy.
People I know are trying to get loans for their small businesses, and it is incredible. You can get the loans if you can put up collateral such as money, but if you had the money maybe you would not be seeking a loan. I will not get caught up in that, but small businesses are still having a hell of a time out there getting the funding to move forward. Credits will help, but still you still need the money to buy something.
On Thursday we go back to the usual initial claims, but there are also existing home sales, leading indicators, and the Philly Fed. Remember, that was just revised to 20.8 from 24.3. The expectations have dropped considerably.
That is the news that will hit, but there could be other stories out of China. Remember, it always comes in threes. There is definitely more economic data ahead, some possible news out of China and other growth areas, and we have more earnings. The flood gates will open, as they say on the financial stations. Thus far, the reception has been favorable overall. It has helped break SP500 out of this consolidation below the 127% Fibonacci extension. It is picking up steam. The indices and the market are gathering momentum overall as they make the break. Volume is up, pricing is strong, and leadership is breaking to the upside.
Many believe that a correction is imminent. This even as the SP600 hits a new rally high and as the SOX blasts off, leading the market upside. We may get a sudden reversal that takes the gains out of the system, but it typically does not happen that way. It can if there are bad things out there and there could be. Europe could be a problem, and it was this week. There could be implosions that the market does not see coming. That is always detrimental. It can take a quick 5% out of the market if something unexpected hits. Right now, nothing nefarious seems to be in the weeds.
The market is running higher and we have been taking positions on the upside. We have also been taking gain as stocks rally higher. At some point there is a turn in earnings. The good news (if it is a good-news season) saturates the market and individual stocks. They get all the gains they can handle and just cannot go any higher. What goes up starts to slide back down even on good news. We are very impressed with this move without a doubt. We are in the group anticipating a top. The thing is, while we anticipate it, we cannot call exactly where it is. There are areas where it looks like it may occur. With SP500 it could have been at the 127% extension, but it was not.
What you can do is prepare. The market has the final say, but we have to prepare for what may happen. We have some downside plays and some upside plays. We take gains partial or whole were necessary. We do not go in blind. We do not try to pick the tops and bottoms, but we have to be ready. You have to prepare for whatever comes your way.
The market remains strong. It is continuing its rally on volume, defying a lot of the pundits. As I said in the market close alert, I am more than fine with that. Our positions continue to increase in value, making us very good money. It is a very good start to 2011, adding onto an outstanding 2010. Again, we are in that area where we see another strong run to the upside and the indices are approaching resistance. 1313 is SP500, and that gives another 20 points to the upside. The next is 1325 to 1327. That gives even more possibility to the upside, and we will be more than happy to let our positions run toward those resistance levels.
Do not get too excited, however. Do not think it can only go up. The indices look strong. There is no reason to believe they will roll over anytime soon based on the technical action: Higher volume, strong price moves, breakouts, and leadership. Although General Patton said that there was no reason to assume the Germans would launch a major winter offensive, and therefore he expected that is exactly what Germany would do. We cannot let down our guard and believe everything is going to continue to rally.
Expect the unexpected. More than that, be ready for the unexpected. Stay skeptical. Be critical with respect to the market and your plays. As soon as you think you have it licked, that is when you get licked. For now, the market and stocks are acting right and looking good. All is right in the world, but do not forget that this is earnings season. There has been a rally into earnings season. They are just getting cranked up, and the initial response has been favorable. A lot of euphoria on the early earnings announcements often leads to the back half of the season getting profits taken. The saturation point is hit, as noted earlier, and the good news simply cannot drive stocks further. That does not mean a crash, but it means a pullback.
We will do what we have been doing. As stocks rally and they hit initial targets in logical places (127% extension, 161% extension), you take gain. Not all of it. You take partial profits because you will let some run, and they do keep running. As we get closer and you have good gains built up into stock positions, take some money off the table. NKE was running well into earnings. We took some money off the table, and then it gapped and was never was able to recover. We had to take the rest of them off. We did not lose much because we had a huge gain built into it.
We will be taking some more gain. A lot of our positions do not have earnings reported until late January or early February. I know we can get more out of this run. We do not want to get greedy and try to squeeze the last nickel out of it, though, because we might get the squeeze put on us. If you have good gains in a position going into earnings, take some profit. We have already taken profits on AAPL, but it has had a great run this week. We can look at taking some more.
Have a great long weekend!
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2755.30
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2862 is the 2007 peak
2735 from late 2007 interim peak
2729 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
2725 from July 2007 interim peak
The 10 day EMA at 2716
The 18 day EMA at 2693
The 50 day EMA at 2615
2593 is the November 2010 high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2550 from May and June 2008 peaks
2540 is the gap up point from early November
2535.28 is the April 2010 intraday peak
2530 is the April 2010 closing peak
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2511 is the lower range of the November gap up point
2482 is the recent October peak
2460 is the November 2010 low.
2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
2382-2395 from 2008
The 200 day SMA at 2388
S&P 500: Closed at 1293.24
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1278 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
The 10 day EMA at 1277
The 18 day EMA at 1268
The 50 day EMA at 1236
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1185 from late September 2008
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1173 is the November 2010 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
The 200 day SM A at 1152
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
Dow: Closed at 11,787.38
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,893, from March 2008 closing low
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
11,734 from 11-98 peak
The 18 day EMA at 11,638
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 11,430
11,258 is the April 2010 peak
11,205 is the April closing high
11,100 from the 7-08 low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
The 200 day SMA at 10,780
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
January 14 - Friday
CPI, December (08:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
Core CPI, December (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail Sales, December (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.7% expected, 0.8% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, December (08:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.6% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 1.2%)
Industrial Production, December (09:15): 0.8% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Capacity Utilization, December (09:15): 76.0% actual versus 75.5% expected, 75.4% prior (revised from 75.2%)
Michigan Sentiment, January (09:55): 72.7 actual versus 75.5 expected, 74.5 prior
Business Inventories, November (10:00): 0.2% actual versus 0.8% expected, 0.7% prior
January 18 - Tuesday
Empire Manufacturing, January (08:30): 12.0 expected, 10.57 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, November (09:00): $27.6B prior
NAHB Housing Market Sentiment, January (10:00): 16 expected, 16 prior
January 19 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Purchases, 01/14 (07:00): +2.2% prior
Housing Starts, December (08:30): 550K expected, 555K prior
Building Permits, December (08:30): 560K expected, 530K prior
January 20 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/15 (08:30): 425K expected, 445K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/08 (08:30): 3900K expected, 3879K prior
Existing Home Sales, December (10:00): 4.80M expected, 4.68M prior
Leading Indicators, December (10:00): 0.6% expected, 1.1% prior
Philadelphia Fed, January (10:00): 20.5 expected, 20.8 prior (revised from 24.3)
Crude Inventories, 01/15 (11:00): -2.15M prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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