- Techs ride GOOG, AAPL to the leadership role.
- NASDAQ climbs toward the April peak but financials hold SP500 at its 78% retracement level.
- CPI gives Bernanke cover for Quantitative Easing 2, but he admits there is not a lot the Fed can do.
- New York Manufacturing triples expectations.
- Retail sales top September expectations as sentiment flags: typical relationship.
- Can SP500 follow NASDAQ's lead and put some distance on this resistance point?
NASDAQ assumes the lead on strong early earnings results.
The rally off the July low has been focused on the SP500. It has been the clear leader with the rest of the market following its moves, but that started to change on Friday. The SP500 moved laterally on the session after a week-and-a-half move where it broke through the January peak. It rallied to the 78% Fibonacci retracement and the May interim peak, and then it slid laterally. That is very solid action. On Friday, the focus changed. NASDAQ made the break as well. It rallied up to its 78% Fibonacci retracement as well as the May peak. It gapped to the upside on Friday, filled the gap intraday, and continued higher led by the powerhouses of NASDAQ and the stock market. GOOG had a huge 11% gain, and the old tried and true AAPL made a massive 4% gain as it solidified its move above $300. You can foresee the duel taking shape now. AAPL likely wants to catch up with GOOG, and GOOG wants their stock price at $1K. I do not think you will get any splits announced from either one of them. As they vie for the top spot and as fund managers push their stocks higher, it gets more interesting in terms of a battle royale for price supremacy.
A comparison of NASDAQ versus SP500 shows that SP500 was the first off the mark and the better relative performer off the July and August lows. There was a crossover, however. NASDAQ started to assert itself in September and, as of this week, has clearly bolted into the lead. NASDAQ is moving toward its April peak having cleared the interim highs. SP500 is still bumping up against its interim peak and the 78% retracement. It is not definitive. One day does not change a trend, but NASDAQ has started to pull away over the past week, and started to cement that on Friday. SP500 finished the week moving laterally at its 78% retracement, while NASDAQ blasted higher and is moving forward on its way to the April peak. A change of the guard? Perhaps. It is not a bad thing. Markets rotate and leadership rotates. In a healthy market, you will find money moving around. SP500 needs the financials to come around, but they were struggling mightily even as most of a market moved higher on Friday.
Looking at the intraday chart, you can see what is happening in terms of the trend in place and how it asserted itself as the day went on. The GOOG earnings started things much higher SP500 was helped out by GOOG with a gap higher, and that was used by many people to sell into. We were one of them, using that as a reason to sell. We had several positions that had near-term options and wanted to bank some gain. Boy, did we bank some big gain on some of those positions. The early move was sold into on SP500 and the NASDAQ as well. Note how NASDAQ never moved down to negative while SP500 did. SP500 breached the zero line and struggled for the rest of the day to recover. It made a credible move, forming an intraday triangle and breaking out of it late in the day. That was able to bring SP500 back to positive, but only a +0.2% rise. Juxtapose that with NASDAQ's +1.4% gain and NASDAQ 100 at +2.1%, and you can see the large caps were lagging tech large caps. The Dow lost -0.3% on the day, and SP600 lost -0.2%. SOX staged a late rally, came close to its session highs, and managed a +0.65% gain.
Not a bad session, but not necessarily great across the board. The key factor for this was good news. The sellers tried to sell into the good news, but it was more profit taking. As the session wore on, the upside bias in the market took over, and stocks melted to the upside for the remainder of the session. That is particularly notable on the NASDAQ, but also on the NASDAQ 100 with a big gap to the upside on strong volume. Looking at a two day chart, NASDAQ 100 has already moved to an all-time high at least as far as this rally is concerned all off the 2009 bear market low. Thanks to the large-cap techs such as GOOG and AAPL, a new high was powering NASDAQ higher.
Note that I am not including MSFT and that ilk because they are not growth companies anymore. They are the quintessential mature companies at this point. They do not have growth; they have cash cows they use in order to generate a lot of money. I do not know how much you remember of your old marketing books from high school and college about how companies move through their life cycle. At some point they are mature, they do not grow anymore, and they have a few products that are cash cows. For MSFT, that is obviously Windows. They desperately seek to innovate and try to find other means to make money. It has XBOX and some games, but everything else has been a joke (its attempt to enter into search, its telephone entries, and the Zune that was supposed to challenge the iPod). I do not mean to be critical of it, but it does not have a new idea rattling inside its offices. Or if it does, it cannot seem to get it to market. It plays the tagalong game. It is a mature company with cash cows keeping it going, but the growth is elsewhere.
As shown on Friday, the real story is whether NASDAQ can rally to its April peak and take that peak out as has NASDAQ 100. The corollary to that is whether SP500 can garner the support of its financial sectors and also make the move up to the April peak and try to break out to a new rally high. It is clear that in order for SP500 to advance, it will need its financial sector to start participating in the move. If it will be able to compete with NASDAQ and keep up with the Joneses, it will need the help of financials. What needs to be added to the equation is that the financials are being given money your money. I have talked about this since the bailout came out. They are able to borrow money at 0%, gratis the Fed. They can then turn around and buy bonds. Bonds are not paying that well right now, but they are paying better than 0%. Are they lending the money? No. They come onto CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business to say they are lending money; but if you ask small businesses, they are not.
Try to get a loan if you are a small business. If you need $150K or $200K, you will be lucky to get 40-50% of that going through the private sectors. They are not willing to lend the money because the better risk is to borrow money at 0% and put it into treasuries. They make a risk-free return. A 100% loan would be foolish. They can hedge it by insuring that they get a return based upon whatever treasuries they want to buy with the 50% of the money they do not lend. That is 50% of the money they are getting for free, mind you. That is why all banks are now pushing small businesses toward SBA loans. It is because the new money available and it is guaranteed. It also does not take away from the banks' guaranteed profits from borrowing at 0% and then using that money to buy an item that gives a guaranteed return.
Who would not want to do that? Funds for free with a guaranteed return on them. Would you not do that with a sizable portion of your account? It is pure profit. I am beating this into the ground, but I want everyone to understand what is going on here. You need to understand that we are suffering because banks are able to make this kind of profit. Banks' stock charts are diving, however. JPM is in free fall, and WFC is diving back down as well. Even the government-owned/supported banks are tumbling lower. C has no reason to fall, but it is. This more than anything shows that there are serious issues with respect to the US financial system almost two years out from the financial crisis. We are still in a major financial crisis right now. The financial institutions that have been getting free money for two years are still hemorrhaging. That tells you how poor their balance sheets remain and that the hundreds of billions of dollars we have spent on them are tenuous. This money could vaporize overnight.
That is why Ben Bernanke is still very concerned about the future. He cannot do anything about fiscal policy, but Chairman Bernanke said there is still need for further stimulus in the very near future in his speech on Friday. He would not tell what kind it would be, but he said there would need to be more stimulus. In the same breath, he also warned of the problems that further stimulus will create. He is worried about inflation, and it is there. Gold has been surging, and there is no question that there are issues there. The CPI helped him out on Friday because it showed tame inflation, but he knows how inflation turns up. He knows it is coming. He has to figure out a way to help bring the economy back despite very bad fiscal policies in DC. He has to figure out how to keep the economy going until something in Washington changes and we rein in some of this unbelievable spending that is pushing us to the brink of financial collapse quicker than we thought could happen.
Dollar. The dollar was able to rebound. It has been slaughtered for about a month and a half. The bounce before that in August and September was just a respite from the bludgeoning it has received since it peaked in June. It closed stronger on Friday after selling off most of the week (1.3974 Euro versus 1.4086 Thursday). The dollar is oversold and will try to bounce. This is the pattern it showed, and it has pulled back almost the same amount that it did from June into August. You can try to argue for an ABCD pattern setting up, but there is a serious hitch in the pattern which suggests that is not the case. There is more of a double top and a breakdown. It is likely coming down to test the late 2009 lows before it is all over.
Bonds. Bonds still did not like what Chairman Bernanke was staying, although it is clear there is going to be Quantitative Easing II. They sold off sharply again (10 year 2.57% versus 2.51% Thursday). Bonds were in the 2.3% range earlier this week before it started to sell off. The lack of specifics on how the Fed will continue with Quantitative Easing II, as well as when it will do that, has upset the bond traders. They have sold them near term. I do not think that will last. I think this will be a rebound. There is an ABCD pattern for bonds. We could very well get a turn back to the upside shortly.
Gold. Gold took the day off because it has had a torrid run to the upside. It could not continue that move indefinitely. There have been a couple of hitches over the past week and a half in price. Gold did finish lower ($1,372.00, -$5.60). Modest losses, and note how it bounced off its lows to close.
Oil. Oil continues to struggle at the top of its range. It has an ugly day ($81.25, -$1.44). It has rallied up to a prior peak and a key resistance level in its lateral range. It is suffering a bit, but it is not breaking down. It is holding up well, and it may continue to rally. The key for oil right now is the dollar. If the dollar bottoms and bounces, oil will come back down and most likely test the June and July interim peaks. Then it may try to bounce from a higher low and make a breakout from its range. It is tied to the dollar. As the dollar falls, prices of oil rise because it is denominated in dollars. Those who have the oil will demand more dollars for every barrel if the dollar's value continues to decline. And it most certainly will continue to decline.
This shows some of the problems that I was discussing with respect to Bernanke. Gold is surging, and it is not because people in China and India want to wear gold. It is because there is massive speculation ongoing. We have a run from $1,150 to $1,390 in the span of less than three months. A 21% gain in the price of gold is not based upon demand. That is based upon speculation and inflation. You can call it "specuflation" if you want. They are speculating about inflation, and it is a hedge against inflation. It is flashing warning lights that we are near driving over the cliff right now. The Fed is listening, but the Fed can only do what the Fed can do. It is up to your politicians to stop the spending and stop trying to create a new word utopia. World history is littered with failed countries and economies that tried to do that.
Volume. Volume rose 13% on NASDAQ to over 2B. It is great to see a gap higher and a +1.4% gain. Volume was up on SP500 as well. It is not necessarily that great since the NYSE indices struggled and churned at a resistance point. The financials are putting a real drag on the SP500.
Breadth. Breadth was not a good session. Even though NASDAQ was higher, it was negative on NASDAQ. That indicates it was totally a large-cap move thanks to GOOG and AAPL. It was not any kind of broad, strong move; it was just a few generals leading. NYSE was -1.5:1. There was not a lot of good news there either.
SP500. SP500 tested lower intraday and managed to rebound. That is good action. Volume was up as it rebounded, and that is not bad. Maybe a little churn there, but a reach lower to test and then a recovery to close above the 78% retracement level. I can live with that for now. It now has to take on its April high, and it is in position to do that. It can move laterally some more, but it needs to follow NASDAQ to the upside.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ has taken out its interim peak from May, the interim peak from March, and the 78% Fibonacci retracement. It is on its way forward the April peak at 2535, about 75-77 points away. That is something easily doable for NASDAQ in a quick run. NASDAQ has to worry that the move is not broad. It is narrowing down as it moves higher. That means if it makes this run, it may not have anything left in the gas tank. It may have to have a good pullback or correction before it can continue to the upside.
SP600. SP600 struggled. While unable to post a gain, it did manage to come back and close flat. That is about as good as you can get for the day. Still moving higher, still in decent shape. We are letting them rally because they are playing follow the leaders right now. They are not the leaders, and that says something negative about the economy. Again, they are moving up.
SOX. The SOX did very little. The semiconductors are in the middle of their range that they gave up in August but recovered. They are following along as well.
Financial. JPM is in full dive mode. GS may still be able to pull out of this, and it is in something of a triangle here. It might need to test lower and then try the break higher. It could help it is not necessarily a pure financial play, however. WFC was selling off on strong volume. The regionals are not in as much trouble. EWBC is moving laterally, but it is not moving up by any stretch of the imagination.
Technology. GOOG had its big gap to the upside, and AAPL had a gap and run to the upside as well. EMC has not had as much success. A big day on Thursday, but it is not a pattern you want to present to your grandma in right now. Cloud computing remains a problem. FFIV still looks ready to roll over, as does AKAM and ADTN. There is the good, the bad, and the ugly in tech land, and it is the leader of the market right now.
Industrial. BUCY looks okay. It is just testing, moving laterally, and holding its gains. I would not necessarily buy into it right now, but it is a possibility. Looking at the weekly chart, it has cleared important resistance of twin peaks spanning multiple years. It is testing that and could make the next move to the upside off of it. It is not necessarily overbought in this condition. CMI is similar; it is not a great pullback to take advantage of. CAT is still moving laterally as well. Not necessarily in a wonderful buy position, but not giving up any ground.
Metals. FCX is taking a break, but what an uptrend. MTL is not bad, showing good volume to the upside late in the week. It may try a breakout all its own. The other metals outside of copper are not necessarily racing to the upside.
Retail. Retail is a mixed bag. BWLD is starting to move higher, and it garnered volume at the end of the week after a three-week lateral consolidation. BBBY is getting some volume. Looks like it might try to break out of its lateral move. MCD's earnings are coming out next week. It always rallies into its earnings and then performs relatively poorly afterward. That is the typical story. It is moving up into these results, so it may not have a good pop on the actual news. AMZN boasted an excellent gain on Friday on strong volume. It is moving to a new rally high, clearing resistance from late September and early October.
Summary. There are still leaders out there, and there are still stocks coming up to fill in from the bottom side. I did not go over many of those tonight, but they are moving up from below. We need more and more of them to keep the rally going. One of the problems I mentioned about Friday was the terrible breadth. Even on NASDAQ, which soared to the upside, the breadth was negative. There were just a few names doing the leading, and those are prone to come back on you. Next week we could see the market do some backfilling. Of course, that means SP500 still holding near the 78% Fibonacci retracement and trying to establish a new shelf to rally from. It did this in late September when it was bumping below the January peak. That may mean NASDAQ has to come back, fill in some of these gaps, and then start back from a run at the April peak.
VIX. The VIX has broken below its range. It gapped lower and recovered, and it has filled the gap. This does not mean the market is overbought and will sell off. While there is a relationship between oversold and overbought conditions on the market, it does not always tie into volatility. A correlation sets up at times, as it did during the summer, but that is broken now. Volatility continues to drop while the market moves higher. There is nothing to suggest a major problem with respect to volatility breaking to the downside right now.
VIX: 19.03; -0.85
VXN: 20.44; -0.19
VXO: 19.43; -0.82
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.71; -0.11
Bulls versus Bears:
The CROSSOVER from August is long gone but it did its job.
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 47.2% versus 45.6%. Steady rise since hitting 29% where bears overtook bulls back in early September. Still below the 65% level considered as bearish, above the 35% level below which is considered bullish. Where you would expect for a rally such as this one. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 24.7% versus 28.3%. Also on a steady move as the market advances upside. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level considered bearish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +33.39 points (+1.37%) to close at 2468.77
Volume: 2.175B (+12.99%)
Up Volume: 1.367B (+591.708M)
Down Volume: 750.32M (-442.713M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.06 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.19 to 1
New Highs: 185 (+30)
New Lows: 27 (+4)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: +2.38 points (+0.2%) to close at 1176.19
NYSE Volume: 1.416B (+27.09%)
Up Volume: 478.262M (+133.174M)
Down Volume: 899.821M (+143.916M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.51 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.48 to 1
New Highs: 416 (-37)
New Lows: 37 (+5)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +33.39 points (+1.37%) to close at 2468.77
Volume DJ30: 319M shares Friday versus 196.2M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
Industrial production and capacity is out on Monday. Tuesday's housing starts are always important. Wednesday brings crude inventories and mortgage applications. Weekly jobless claims are on Thursday, as well as leading economic indicators. They are not as important because they do not lead that much. The Philly Fed will be important given the good news on the New York PMI released on Friday.
Getting back to the market itself, we will be in full-blown earnings season. NASDAQ gapped to the upside twice last week. Good volume on the gaps to the upside, so it is showing good action. Even though breadth is weak, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 can continue higher. This has happened many times before over many, many years. Even if breadth is narrow, some horsemen on NASDAQ or another index are the ones that lead it to the upside. They can continue to run higher and higher. It is showing good upside volume, so that does not indicate bad action. Breadth is important in the long, long run, but an index can continue to move higher on minimal breadth a lot longer than you would rationally think it could. There is still room to the upside, although I anticipate some giveback starting next week. Perhaps just a bit of a hangover on NASDAQ. It was good news with respect to AAPL and GOOG on Friday, and more sellers may come in and try to push it back a bit before the move continues to the upside.
We also have earnings to consider. They will be important because we are in the teeth of it. Thus far, the market has been rallying nicely on the early results. There were good results with GOOG and INTC. INTC did not move commensurate with its earnings report and outlook, but GOOG did. AAPL is moving in anticipation of its earnings. It looks like the action is still to the upside. The bias definitely showed itself on Friday after sellers sold off the initial move. Investors came back in and pushed the indices back up using the opportunity to move in on that dip. We probably still have that same upside bias to the market. The question is how long it will last. We can typically have two to three weeks of earnings that show a boost to the upside as earnings come in better than expected. Then the market gets the gist of what is going on, and it starts to take some profits on the move. NASDAQ is definitely on the move to the upside. If it gets another couple of good sessions in, that will likely put it near the April peak. Then it needs to come back and test a bit.
Our plan remains what it has been: We will let our positions run. We took gain on the good news on Friday, and we did not buy much. We have been buying up into these numbers. If we get a pullback to start next week, that will be the time to take new positions. We already have some very good new positions. We have others riding higher, and we banked some outstanding gain on Friday on some stocks, particularly some that had near-term expiration of their options. We took huge gain off the table with those. We are moving well. The indices are moving up. They still have room to run if more good earnings news comes out. After that, they will probably come back and test.
We do not want to take a lot of new positions going into the heart of earnings season. It becomes more of a gamble than a calculated probability equation. That is why we took gain on the way up, and that is why we took gain on Friday. We had excellent gain to lock in, and we do that before earnings because they can have the opposite reaction of what you would anticipate. I want to put the probabilities on our side. If we have nice gains in stocks, we can take those before the earnings. Then we can go into earnings with less on the table, still able to take advantage of any upside, but not get hurt if it does not work out. As for new positions, we have some that are kind of on the bubble. They have not really moved, and we may close them out if they do not get themselves in a better position ahead of earnings. Then we will see how earnings play out and can move back in.
The beauty of earnings is that, if you are not in the stock, gaps up or gaps down are just going to set up possibilities for you in new plays. That is particularly true with breakaway gaps. I love those on earnings. Once the breakaway gap occurs, it settles down and tests, and then it starts to move again in the direction of the gap. That is when we can move in, catch that next run, and make some great money. Earnings always make things a little different, and they definitely make it exciting. We just need to be cautious moving into them. We have been lightening up our positions and not buying as much. We will continue to do that, but we will also take advantage of opportunity as it presents itself. If there are great positions to buy into, and we will take what the market gives. Have a great weekend.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2468.77
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2530 is the April 2010 peak (2535.28 intraday)
2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
The 10 day EMA at 2415
2382-2395 from 2008
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2319
2310 is the August 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2293
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the August 2010intraday low
S&P 500: Closed at 1176.19
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1220 is the April 2010, post-bear market peak
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
The 50 day EMA at 1129
The 200 day SMA at 1120
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows
Dow: Closed at 11,062.78
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11258 is the April 2010 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 10,668
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,501
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 15 - Friday
CPI, September (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, September (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Retail Sales, September (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, September (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.4% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 0.6%)
NY Fed - Empire Manu, October (08:30): 15.73 actual versus 5.75 expected, 4.10 prior
Mich Sentiment, October (09:55): 67.9 actual versus 68.5 expected, 68.2 prior
Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.6% actual versus 0.5% expected, 1.1% prior (revised from 1.0%)
Treasury Budget, September (14:00): -$34.5B actual versus -$33.5B expected, -$45.2B prior (revised from -$46.6B)
October 18 - Monday
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, August (09:00): $61.2B prior
Industrial Production, September (09:15): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Capacity Utilization, September (09:15): 74.8% expected, 74.7% prior
NAHB Housing Market Survey, October (10:00): 13 expected, 13 prior
October 19 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, September (08:30): 575K expected, 598K prior
Building Permits, September (08:30): 565K expected, 569K prior
October 20 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applications, 10/15 (07:00): 14.6% prior
Crude Inventories, 10/16 (10:30): -0.416M prior
October 21 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/16 (08:30): 455K expected, 462K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/09 (08:30): 4400K expected, 4399K prior
Leading Indicators, September (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Philadelphia Fed, October (10:00): 1.4 expected, -0.7 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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