Sunday, October 24, 2010

Earnings Turn in Solid Guidance

SUMMARY:
- Stocks finish out the week as it moved the entire week: upside bias but modest gains.
- Earnings continue to turn in solid guidance . . . for the most part.
- Housing prices head lower for the second month, raising worries of a double dip.
- Indices struggling to move higher, but many stocks sport solid moves Friday, presaging a move to the April highs.



OTHER MARKETS

Dollar.

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Bonds.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg




THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 18.78; -0.49
VXN: 20.42; -0.76
VXO: 18.53; -0.49

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.87; -0.09


Bulls versus Bears:

The CROSSOVER from August is long gone but it did its job.

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 45.1% versus 47.2%. First week to slip in more than a month though holding at an elevated level. Was 45.6% three weeks back. Steady rise since hitting 29% where bears overtook bulls back in early September. Still below the 65% level considered as bearish, above the 35% level below which is considered bullish. Where you would expect for a rally such as this one. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 22.0% versus 24.7%. Unlike bulls, bears continued to soften, meaning more bullishness. Down from 28.3% three weeks back. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level considered bearish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +19.72 points (+0.8%) to close at 2479.39
Volume: 1.587B (-25.99%)

Up Volume: 1.234B (+155.683M)
Down Volume: 405.424M (-648.659M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.75 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.59 to 1

New Highs: 101 (-26)
New Lows: 31 (-1)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +2.82 points (+0.24%) to close at 1183.08
NYSE Volume: 772.155M (-26.75%)

Up Volume: 451.726M (-16.457M)
Down Volume: 300.613M (-267.473M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.53 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.11 to 1

New Highs: 236 (-158)
New Lows: 12 (-33)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: -14.01 points (-0.13%) to close at 11132.56
Volume DJ30: 104M shares Friday versus 178M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2479.39

Resistance:
2482 is the recent October peak
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2530 is the April 2010 peak (2535.28 intraday)

Support:
2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
The 18 day EMA at 2419
2382-2395 from 2008
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2341 is the June 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2345
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2310 is the August 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2297
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the August 2010intraday low


S&P 500: Closed at 1183.08
Resistance:

1185 from late September 2008
1220 is the April 2010, post-bear market peak

Support:

1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
The 18 day EMA at 1165
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 1138
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
The 200 day SMA at 1121
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows


Dow: Closed at 11,132.56
Resistance:
11,205 is the April closing high
11258 is the April 2010 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
11,100 from the 7-08 low
The 18 day EMA at 10,990
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
The 50 day EMA at 10,747
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,515
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

November 01 - Monday
Personal Income, September (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.5% prior
Personal Spending, September (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
PCE Prices - Core, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
ISM Index, October (10:00): 53.6 expected, 54.4 prior
Construction Spending, September (10:00): -0.5% expected, 0.4% prior

November 03 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 10/29 (07:00)
Challenger Job Cuts , October (07:30): -44.1% prior
ADP Employment Change, October (08:15): 25K expected, -39K prior
ISM Services, October (10:00): 53.6 expected, 53.2 prior
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.6% expected, -0.5% prior
Crude Inventories, 10/30 (10:30)
Auto Sales, October (14:00): 3.75M prior
Truck Sales, October (14:00): 5.07M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, November 3 (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

November 04 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/30 (08:30)
Continuing Claims, 10/30 (08:30)
Productivity-Prel, Q3 (08:30): 0.6% expected, -1.8% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q3 (08:30): 1.9% expected, 1.1% prior

November 05 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (08:30): 45K expected, -95K prior
Nonfarm Payrolls - Private, October (08:30): 60K expected, 64K prior
Unemployment Rate, October (08:30): 9.6% expected, 9.6% prior
Hourly Earnings, October (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Average Workweek, October (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
Pending Home Sales, September (10:00): 0.5% expected, 4.3% prior
Consumer Credit, September (15:00): -3.8B expected, -$3.3B prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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Sunday, October 17, 2010

Techs Ride GOOG, AAPL to Leadership Role

SUMMARY:
- Techs ride GOOG, AAPL to the leadership role.
- NASDAQ climbs toward the April peak but financials hold SP500 at its 78% retracement level.
- CPI gives Bernanke cover for Quantitative Easing 2, but he admits there is not a lot the Fed can do.
- New York Manufacturing triples expectations.
- Retail sales top September expectations as sentiment flags: typical relationship.
- Can SP500 follow NASDAQ's lead and put some distance on this resistance point?

NASDAQ assumes the lead on strong early earnings results.

The rally off the July low has been focused on the SP500. It has been the clear leader with the rest of the market following its moves, but that started to change on Friday. The SP500 moved laterally on the session after a week-and-a-half move where it broke through the January peak. It rallied to the 78% Fibonacci retracement and the May interim peak, and then it slid laterally. That is very solid action. On Friday, the focus changed. NASDAQ made the break as well. It rallied up to its 78% Fibonacci retracement as well as the May peak. It gapped to the upside on Friday, filled the gap intraday, and continued higher led by the powerhouses of NASDAQ and the stock market. GOOG had a huge 11% gain, and the old tried and true AAPL made a massive 4% gain as it solidified its move above $300. You can foresee the duel taking shape now. AAPL likely wants to catch up with GOOG, and GOOG wants their stock price at $1K. I do not think you will get any splits announced from either one of them. As they vie for the top spot and as fund managers push their stocks higher, it gets more interesting in terms of a battle royale for price supremacy.

A comparison of NASDAQ versus SP500 shows that SP500 was the first off the mark and the better relative performer off the July and August lows. There was a crossover, however. NASDAQ started to assert itself in September and, as of this week, has clearly bolted into the lead. NASDAQ is moving toward its April peak having cleared the interim highs. SP500 is still bumping up against its interim peak and the 78% retracement. It is not definitive. One day does not change a trend, but NASDAQ has started to pull away over the past week, and started to cement that on Friday. SP500 finished the week moving laterally at its 78% retracement, while NASDAQ blasted higher and is moving forward on its way to the April peak. A change of the guard? Perhaps. It is not a bad thing. Markets rotate and leadership rotates. In a healthy market, you will find money moving around. SP500 needs the financials to come around, but they were struggling mightily even as most of a market moved higher on Friday.

Looking at the intraday chart, you can see what is happening in terms of the trend in place and how it asserted itself as the day went on. The GOOG earnings started things much higher SP500 was helped out by GOOG with a gap higher, and that was used by many people to sell into. We were one of them, using that as a reason to sell. We had several positions that had near-term options and wanted to bank some gain. Boy, did we bank some big gain on some of those positions. The early move was sold into on SP500 and the NASDAQ as well. Note how NASDAQ never moved down to negative while SP500 did. SP500 breached the zero line and struggled for the rest of the day to recover. It made a credible move, forming an intraday triangle and breaking out of it late in the day. That was able to bring SP500 back to positive, but only a +0.2% rise. Juxtapose that with NASDAQ's +1.4% gain and NASDAQ 100 at +2.1%, and you can see the large caps were lagging tech large caps. The Dow lost -0.3% on the day, and SP600 lost -0.2%. SOX staged a late rally, came close to its session highs, and managed a +0.65% gain.

Not a bad session, but not necessarily great across the board. The key factor for this was good news. The sellers tried to sell into the good news, but it was more profit taking. As the session wore on, the upside bias in the market took over, and stocks melted to the upside for the remainder of the session. That is particularly notable on the NASDAQ, but also on the NASDAQ 100 with a big gap to the upside on strong volume. Looking at a two day chart, NASDAQ 100 has already moved to an all-time high at least as far as this rally is concerned all off the 2009 bear market low. Thanks to the large-cap techs such as GOOG and AAPL, a new high was powering NASDAQ higher.

Note that I am not including MSFT and that ilk because they are not growth companies anymore. They are the quintessential mature companies at this point. They do not have growth; they have cash cows they use in order to generate a lot of money. I do not know how much you remember of your old marketing books from high school and college about how companies move through their life cycle. At some point they are mature, they do not grow anymore, and they have a few products that are cash cows. For MSFT, that is obviously Windows. They desperately seek to innovate and try to find other means to make money. It has XBOX and some games, but everything else has been a joke (its attempt to enter into search, its telephone entries, and the Zune that was supposed to challenge the iPod). I do not mean to be critical of it, but it does not have a new idea rattling inside its offices. Or if it does, it cannot seem to get it to market. It plays the tagalong game. It is a mature company with cash cows keeping it going, but the growth is elsewhere.

As shown on Friday, the real story is whether NASDAQ can rally to its April peak and take that peak out as has NASDAQ 100. The corollary to that is whether SP500 can garner the support of its financial sectors and also make the move up to the April peak and try to break out to a new rally high. It is clear that in order for SP500 to advance, it will need its financial sector to start participating in the move. If it will be able to compete with NASDAQ and keep up with the Joneses, it will need the help of financials. What needs to be added to the equation is that the financials are being given money your money. I have talked about this since the bailout came out. They are able to borrow money at 0%, gratis the Fed. They can then turn around and buy bonds. Bonds are not paying that well right now, but they are paying better than 0%. Are they lending the money? No. They come onto CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business to say they are lending money; but if you ask small businesses, they are not.

Try to get a loan if you are a small business. If you need $150K or $200K, you will be lucky to get 40-50% of that going through the private sectors. They are not willing to lend the money because the better risk is to borrow money at 0% and put it into treasuries. They make a risk-free return. A 100% loan would be foolish. They can hedge it by insuring that they get a return based upon whatever treasuries they want to buy with the 50% of the money they do not lend. That is 50% of the money they are getting for free, mind you. That is why all banks are now pushing small businesses toward SBA loans. It is because the new money available and it is guaranteed. It also does not take away from the banks' guaranteed profits from borrowing at 0% and then using that money to buy an item that gives a guaranteed return.

Who would not want to do that? Funds for free with a guaranteed return on them. Would you not do that with a sizable portion of your account? It is pure profit. I am beating this into the ground, but I want everyone to understand what is going on here. You need to understand that we are suffering because banks are able to make this kind of profit. Banks' stock charts are diving, however. JPM is in free fall, and WFC is diving back down as well. Even the government-owned/supported banks are tumbling lower. C has no reason to fall, but it is. This more than anything shows that there are serious issues with respect to the US financial system almost two years out from the financial crisis. We are still in a major financial crisis right now. The financial institutions that have been getting free money for two years are still hemorrhaging. That tells you how poor their balance sheets remain and that the hundreds of billions of dollars we have spent on them are tenuous. This money could vaporize overnight.

That is why Ben Bernanke is still very concerned about the future. He cannot do anything about fiscal policy, but Chairman Bernanke said there is still need for further stimulus in the very near future in his speech on Friday. He would not tell what kind it would be, but he said there would need to be more stimulus. In the same breath, he also warned of the problems that further stimulus will create. He is worried about inflation, and it is there. Gold has been surging, and there is no question that there are issues there. The CPI helped him out on Friday because it showed tame inflation, but he knows how inflation turns up. He knows it is coming. He has to figure out a way to help bring the economy back despite very bad fiscal policies in DC. He has to figure out how to keep the economy going until something in Washington changes and we rein in some of this unbelievable spending that is pushing us to the brink of financial collapse quicker than we thought could happen.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. The dollar was able to rebound. It has been slaughtered for about a month and a half. The bounce before that in August and September was just a respite from the bludgeoning it has received since it peaked in June. It closed stronger on Friday after selling off most of the week (1.3974 Euro versus 1.4086 Thursday). The dollar is oversold and will try to bounce. This is the pattern it showed, and it has pulled back almost the same amount that it did from June into August. You can try to argue for an ABCD pattern setting up, but there is a serious hitch in the pattern which suggests that is not the case. There is more of a double top and a breakdown. It is likely coming down to test the late 2009 lows before it is all over.

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Bonds. Bonds still did not like what Chairman Bernanke was staying, although it is clear there is going to be Quantitative Easing II. They sold off sharply again (10 year 2.57% versus 2.51% Thursday). Bonds were in the 2.3% range earlier this week before it started to sell off. The lack of specifics on how the Fed will continue with Quantitative Easing II, as well as when it will do that, has upset the bond traders. They have sold them near term. I do not think that will last. I think this will be a rebound. There is an ABCD pattern for bonds. We could very well get a turn back to the upside shortly.

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Gold. Gold took the day off because it has had a torrid run to the upside. It could not continue that move indefinitely. There have been a couple of hitches over the past week and a half in price. Gold did finish lower ($1,372.00, -$5.60). Modest losses, and note how it bounced off its lows to close.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil. Oil continues to struggle at the top of its range. It has an ugly day ($81.25, -$1.44). It has rallied up to a prior peak and a key resistance level in its lateral range. It is suffering a bit, but it is not breaking down. It is holding up well, and it may continue to rally. The key for oil right now is the dollar. If the dollar bottoms and bounces, oil will come back down and most likely test the June and July interim peaks. Then it may try to bounce from a higher low and make a breakout from its range. It is tied to the dollar. As the dollar falls, prices of oil rise because it is denominated in dollars. Those who have the oil will demand more dollars for every barrel if the dollar's value continues to decline. And it most certainly will continue to decline.

This shows some of the problems that I was discussing with respect to Bernanke. Gold is surging, and it is not because people in China and India want to wear gold. It is because there is massive speculation ongoing. We have a run from $1,150 to $1,390 in the span of less than three months. A 21% gain in the price of gold is not based upon demand. That is based upon speculation and inflation. You can call it "specuflation" if you want. They are speculating about inflation, and it is a hedge against inflation. It is flashing warning lights that we are near driving over the cliff right now. The Fed is listening, but the Fed can only do what the Fed can do. It is up to your politicians to stop the spending and stop trying to create a new word utopia. World history is littered with failed countries and economies that tried to do that.

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TECHNICAL SUMMARY

Volume. Volume rose 13% on NASDAQ to over 2B. It is great to see a gap higher and a +1.4% gain. Volume was up on SP500 as well. It is not necessarily that great since the NYSE indices struggled and churned at a resistance point. The financials are putting a real drag on the SP500.

Breadth. Breadth was not a good session. Even though NASDAQ was higher, it was negative on NASDAQ. That indicates it was totally a large-cap move thanks to GOOG and AAPL. It was not any kind of broad, strong move; it was just a few generals leading. NYSE was -1.5:1. There was not a lot of good news there either.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 tested lower intraday and managed to rebound. That is good action. Volume was up as it rebounded, and that is not bad. Maybe a little churn there, but a reach lower to test and then a recovery to close above the 78% retracement level. I can live with that for now. It now has to take on its April high, and it is in position to do that. It can move laterally some more, but it needs to follow NASDAQ to the upside.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ has taken out its interim peak from May, the interim peak from March, and the 78% Fibonacci retracement. It is on its way forward the April peak at 2535, about 75-77 points away. That is something easily doable for NASDAQ in a quick run. NASDAQ has to worry that the move is not broad. It is narrowing down as it moves higher. That means if it makes this run, it may not have anything left in the gas tank. It may have to have a good pullback or correction before it can continue to the upside.

SP600. SP600 struggled. While unable to post a gain, it did manage to come back and close flat. That is about as good as you can get for the day. Still moving higher, still in decent shape. We are letting them rally because they are playing follow the leaders right now. They are not the leaders, and that says something negative about the economy. Again, they are moving up.

SOX. The SOX did very little. The semiconductors are in the middle of their range that they gave up in August but recovered. They are following along as well.


LEADERSHIP

Financial. JPM is in full dive mode. GS may still be able to pull out of this, and it is in something of a triangle here. It might need to test lower and then try the break higher. It could help it is not necessarily a pure financial play, however. WFC was selling off on strong volume. The regionals are not in as much trouble. EWBC is moving laterally, but it is not moving up by any stretch of the imagination.

Technology. GOOG had its big gap to the upside, and AAPL had a gap and run to the upside as well. EMC has not had as much success. A big day on Thursday, but it is not a pattern you want to present to your grandma in right now. Cloud computing remains a problem. FFIV still looks ready to roll over, as does AKAM and ADTN. There is the good, the bad, and the ugly in tech land, and it is the leader of the market right now.

Industrial. BUCY looks okay. It is just testing, moving laterally, and holding its gains. I would not necessarily buy into it right now, but it is a possibility. Looking at the weekly chart, it has cleared important resistance of twin peaks spanning multiple years. It is testing that and could make the next move to the upside off of it. It is not necessarily overbought in this condition. CMI is similar; it is not a great pullback to take advantage of. CAT is still moving laterally as well. Not necessarily in a wonderful buy position, but not giving up any ground.

Metals. FCX is taking a break, but what an uptrend. MTL is not bad, showing good volume to the upside late in the week. It may try a breakout all its own. The other metals outside of copper are not necessarily racing to the upside.

Retail. Retail is a mixed bag. BWLD is starting to move higher, and it garnered volume at the end of the week after a three-week lateral consolidation. BBBY is getting some volume. Looks like it might try to break out of its lateral move. MCD's earnings are coming out next week. It always rallies into its earnings and then performs relatively poorly afterward. That is the typical story. It is moving up into these results, so it may not have a good pop on the actual news. AMZN boasted an excellent gain on Friday on strong volume. It is moving to a new rally high, clearing resistance from late September and early October.

Summary. There are still leaders out there, and there are still stocks coming up to fill in from the bottom side. I did not go over many of those tonight, but they are moving up from below. We need more and more of them to keep the rally going. One of the problems I mentioned about Friday was the terrible breadth. Even on NASDAQ, which soared to the upside, the breadth was negative. There were just a few names doing the leading, and those are prone to come back on you. Next week we could see the market do some backfilling. Of course, that means SP500 still holding near the 78% Fibonacci retracement and trying to establish a new shelf to rally from. It did this in late September when it was bumping below the January peak. That may mean NASDAQ has to come back, fill in some of these gaps, and then start back from a run at the April peak.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. The VIX has broken below its range. It gapped lower and recovered, and it has filled the gap. This does not mean the market is overbought and will sell off. While there is a relationship between oversold and overbought conditions on the market, it does not always tie into volatility. A correlation sets up at times, as it did during the summer, but that is broken now. Volatility continues to drop while the market moves higher. There is nothing to suggest a major problem with respect to volatility breaking to the downside right now.

VIX: 19.03; -0.85
VXN: 20.44; -0.19
VXO: 19.43; -0.82

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.71; -0.11

Bulls versus Bears:

The CROSSOVER from August is long gone but it did its job.

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 47.2% versus 45.6%. Steady rise since hitting 29% where bears overtook bulls back in early September. Still below the 65% level considered as bearish, above the 35% level below which is considered bullish. Where you would expect for a rally such as this one. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 24.7% versus 28.3%. Also on a steady move as the market advances upside. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level considered bearish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +33.39 points (+1.37%) to close at 2468.77
Volume: 2.175B (+12.99%)

Up Volume: 1.367B (+591.708M)
Down Volume: 750.32M (-442.713M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.06 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.19 to 1

New Highs: 185 (+30)
New Lows: 27 (+4)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +2.38 points (+0.2%) to close at 1176.19
NYSE Volume: 1.416B (+27.09%)

Up Volume: 478.262M (+133.174M)
Down Volume: 899.821M (+143.916M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.51 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.48 to 1

New Highs: 416 (-37)
New Lows: 37 (+5)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +33.39 points (+1.37%) to close at 2468.77
Volume DJ30: 319M shares Friday versus 196.2M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

Industrial production and capacity is out on Monday. Tuesday's housing starts are always important. Wednesday brings crude inventories and mortgage applications. Weekly jobless claims are on Thursday, as well as leading economic indicators. They are not as important because they do not lead that much. The Philly Fed will be important given the good news on the New York PMI released on Friday.

Getting back to the market itself, we will be in full-blown earnings season. NASDAQ gapped to the upside twice last week. Good volume on the gaps to the upside, so it is showing good action. Even though breadth is weak, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 can continue higher. This has happened many times before over many, many years. Even if breadth is narrow, some horsemen on NASDAQ or another index are the ones that lead it to the upside. They can continue to run higher and higher. It is showing good upside volume, so that does not indicate bad action. Breadth is important in the long, long run, but an index can continue to move higher on minimal breadth a lot longer than you would rationally think it could. There is still room to the upside, although I anticipate some giveback starting next week. Perhaps just a bit of a hangover on NASDAQ. It was good news with respect to AAPL and GOOG on Friday, and more sellers may come in and try to push it back a bit before the move continues to the upside.

We also have earnings to consider. They will be important because we are in the teeth of it. Thus far, the market has been rallying nicely on the early results. There were good results with GOOG and INTC. INTC did not move commensurate with its earnings report and outlook, but GOOG did. AAPL is moving in anticipation of its earnings. It looks like the action is still to the upside. The bias definitely showed itself on Friday after sellers sold off the initial move. Investors came back in and pushed the indices back up using the opportunity to move in on that dip. We probably still have that same upside bias to the market. The question is how long it will last. We can typically have two to three weeks of earnings that show a boost to the upside as earnings come in better than expected. Then the market gets the gist of what is going on, and it starts to take some profits on the move. NASDAQ is definitely on the move to the upside. If it gets another couple of good sessions in, that will likely put it near the April peak. Then it needs to come back and test a bit.

Our plan remains what it has been: We will let our positions run. We took gain on the good news on Friday, and we did not buy much. We have been buying up into these numbers. If we get a pullback to start next week, that will be the time to take new positions. We already have some very good new positions. We have others riding higher, and we banked some outstanding gain on Friday on some stocks, particularly some that had near-term expiration of their options. We took huge gain off the table with those. We are moving well. The indices are moving up. They still have room to run if more good earnings news comes out. After that, they will probably come back and test.

We do not want to take a lot of new positions going into the heart of earnings season. It becomes more of a gamble than a calculated probability equation. That is why we took gain on the way up, and that is why we took gain on Friday. We had excellent gain to lock in, and we do that before earnings because they can have the opposite reaction of what you would anticipate. I want to put the probabilities on our side. If we have nice gains in stocks, we can take those before the earnings. Then we can go into earnings with less on the table, still able to take advantage of any upside, but not get hurt if it does not work out. As for new positions, we have some that are kind of on the bubble. They have not really moved, and we may close them out if they do not get themselves in a better position ahead of earnings. Then we will see how earnings play out and can move back in.

The beauty of earnings is that, if you are not in the stock, gaps up or gaps down are just going to set up possibilities for you in new plays. That is particularly true with breakaway gaps. I love those on earnings. Once the breakaway gap occurs, it settles down and tests, and then it starts to move again in the direction of the gap. That is when we can move in, catch that next run, and make some great money. Earnings always make things a little different, and they definitely make it exciting. We just need to be cautious moving into them. We have been lightening up our positions and not buying as much. We will continue to do that, but we will also take advantage of opportunity as it presents itself. If there are great positions to buy into, and we will take what the market gives. Have a great weekend.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2468.77

Resistance:
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2530 is the April 2010 peak (2535.28 intraday)

Support:
2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
The 10 day EMA at 2415
2382-2395 from 2008
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2319
2310 is the August 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2293
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the August 2010intraday low


S&P 500: Closed at 1176.19
Resistance:

1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1220 is the April 2010, post-bear market peak

Support:

1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
The 50 day EMA at 1129
The 200 day SMA at 1120
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows


Dow: Closed at 11,062.78
Resistance:
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11258 is the April 2010 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 10,668
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,501
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

October 15 - Friday
CPI, September (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, September (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Retail Sales, September (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, September (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.4% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 0.6%)
NY Fed - Empire Manu, October (08:30): 15.73 actual versus 5.75 expected, 4.10 prior
Mich Sentiment, October (09:55): 67.9 actual versus 68.5 expected, 68.2 prior
Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.6% actual versus 0.5% expected, 1.1% prior (revised from 1.0%)
Treasury Budget, September (14:00): -$34.5B actual versus -$33.5B expected, -$45.2B prior (revised from -$46.6B)

October 18 - Monday
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, August (09:00): $61.2B prior
Industrial Production, September (09:15): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Capacity Utilization, September (09:15): 74.8% expected, 74.7% prior
NAHB Housing Market Survey, October (10:00): 13 expected, 13 prior

October 19 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, September (08:30): 575K expected, 598K prior
Building Permits, September (08:30): 565K expected, 569K prior

October 20 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applications, 10/15 (07:00): 14.6% prior
Crude Inventories, 10/16 (10:30): -0.416M prior

October 21 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/16 (08:30): 455K expected, 462K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/09 (08:30): 4400K expected, 4399K prior
Leading Indicators, September (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Philadelphia Fed, October (10:00): 1.4 expected, -0.7 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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Sunday, October 10, 2010

Stocks Respond Well to Pathetic Jobs Report

SUMMARY:
- Stocks respond surprisingly well to another pathetic jobs report.
- 95K jobs lost. Private sector creates jobs but at 64K, even less than expected.
- Stock market adds to its breakout to close the week, and volume rises as a nice bonus.
- Some new areas are starting to step up. Can they keep it up?

A good day of gains to close the week despite the lack of jobs report.

Friday was supposed to be all about jobs. The jobs number on the headline was not that positive with -95K versus expectations that it would be 0 to -10K jobs. Even with that bad number the market, though choppy at first, did rally with SP500 posting a 7 point gain. Futures actually moved up after the number though it was a volatile premarket session after the jobs report, no doubt, but there was a theme of the futures moving higher toward the open. Stocks sold off after the initial rise, but then slow, steady gains all the way to the close. A dip at the bell, but that had more to do with it being a Friday and investors thought they better take profits given the rally, just to make things balance out.

It was a decent upside day. NASDAQ +0.77%, SP500 +0.6%, Dow +0.5%, SP600 +1.3%, SOX +1%, NASDAQ 100 +0.77%. Gains across the board on a terrible jobs number. But, maybe it was not as terrible as the headline indicated. After all, government jobs were down -159K, and that has to make any free enterprise, capitalist, republic-loving investor happier. The government finally shrinks after exploding in growth over the past two years; a positive, but in the bigger picture, hardly a dent. The private sector jobs did rise 64K, but that was less than the 75K expected. 65K jobs is nothing; it takes 150-200K just to keep up with population growth. Despite the recession, people are still trying to come to the US to get jobs, although the word needs to go out that there are not many out there. Indeed, that is why illegal immigration is somewhat down across our southern borders.

Friday I heard financial station guests talking about how great it is that 850K jobs have been created over the last year and a half to two years. While it is nice to see people actually getting some jobs, jobs are not moving higher and sustaining a drop in the unemployment rate. Or maybe it did. After all, the unemployment rate held at 9.6% when it was expected to rise to 9.7%. Maybe happy times are here! Not. We all know there are fewer and fewer people in the jobs pool looking for work. Crowing about 65K private sector jobs is not enough to get the unemployed excited and coming back into the market and looking for jobs. Once they do feel things are better, they will come back in and then we will see that unemployment rate likely hop over 10%. You can spin this any way you want to, and you can get a little traction out of it. You can talk about the decrease in government jobs and the increase in private sector jobs, but that is about all you can get out of it. It is not any kind of great increase at all. Manufacturing lost 6K jobs and construction lost 21K. Retail managed to add 6K, and services were the bright spot with an 86K gain. There were solid indications in some sectors, but it was hit or miss. Very spotty but mostly negative or flat growth, just like the overall number.

Telling once more was the chronically unemployed -- those looking for work and not finding it for more than 6 months. Those are at 6.1M people, and that is way too many in a country such as ours. Despite that rather gloomy look, the market managed to rally. It put on a good show of it at that. It did not matter that MU missed its earnings or that Deutsche Bank downgraded the entire semiconductors equipment manufacturing sector. It did not seem to hurt stocks that had a mind to move higher. After breaking out earlier, we can see why. There was a solid move on Tuesday that cleared the resistance on SP500. Now it is free to try to run up toward the 78% Fibonacci at 1175, just another 10 points away. That is exactly what we are looking for, and the market is continuing to show an upside bias despite gloomy news in the economy.

Perhaps it is looking down the road (as it is supposed to be doing) and sees something better. Whatever the reason, it is trying to move higher right now. Could it possibly be a flood of liquidity coming from the Fed again? You never want to fight the Fed. History shows that stocks do perform better when it goes on a liquidity binge, at least while the liquidity is being added to the system. The problem comes after going on such a massive spending spree. Other markets are telling us that there is a problem out there. If we keep going on the path of devaluing our dollar and trying to jumpstart the economy by making everything worth less by devaluing our currency, eventually it leads to spiking inflation.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. The dollar was down. It tried to buck up and move higher on Thursday, and indeed it did, and it was trying to extend that gain on Friday. It was positive premarket as well as in the first half of the day, but as the session wore on it faded (1.3927 Euro versus 1.3918 Thursday). The dollar is getting ripped by the belief that there will be quantitative easing on the table again. When that happens, you devalue your currency. That is the way it works, pure and simple. The Fed has no problem doing it because Bernanke fears another Great Depression, and the administration likes it because it wants to inflate its way out of the massive debt it has saddled on the America public. It is not just this administration; it was the one before it as well. There is plenty of blame to spread on everyone. Some called themselves conservatives and free-market people and they were not. Others are adamantly not free-market people. The irony is that the policies in both administrations are so confused that all they have done is grow the government and grow the debt.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds. Bonds overall lost a little ground in an amalgam of all the issues, but the 10 year Note held fairly steady. As a matter of fact, it was flat at 2.39%. It was stronger during the day with the yield at 2.36%, but it could not hold it into the close. Nonetheless, it remains elevated. Gold and other markets are running higher or are in anticipation of more buying of bonds and printing of money. The interesting thing is that bonds are not spiking higher. That is something I am watching and pondering. We will continue to look at them and see how they perform. Bonds should be running higher right now but they are not. Maybe they are telling us something is better down the road.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold. Gold has been up all week, and after a really wild reversal session on Thursday, it was right back into the game ($1,345.50, +10.50). I am looking for a pullback, and I would hate to think that is all it will give us. It has been strong, and there is reason for it to be strong. Those reasons have not changed. While it does need to have some sort of consolidation, it does not seem to want to give up any ground.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil. Oil had a very good week, and it ended on a good note as well ($82.63, +0.93). It rallied up to one of its resistance levels in its range, and fell back Thursday. It tested even lower on Friday but reversed off the 10 day EMA for that gain. As the dollar falls, it takes more dollars to buy a barrel of oil. That is why oil is running higher. Maybe you can make the correlation between bonds not moving higher and oil running higher. If bonds are not rallying, then perhaps the economy is going to do better instead of worse. Bonds tend to rally when the idea is that stocks are not going to do well because the economy will be poor. Maybe it is just the fact that bonds have rallied too far right now and they are running out of the ability to move higher. It could take more to get them to move than just the same old story about the Fed coming in and buying more assets.

It was clear that oil was running higher most likely because the dollar was running lower. Gold was running sharply higher because the US is bound and determined to stick with the easy money, asset-buying binge they have been on for the past three years. That holds true for all the other central banks, as we saw this week with Australia, Europe, Japan, etc.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

Volume. Volume rose on the NASDAQ as well as on the NYSE. For a Friday that is a good sign, particularly when the market started soft and closed high. That is your good high-to-low price action coupled with rising volume. That is what you call good price/volume action.

Breadth. The advance/decline line was not bad at 2.5:1 on NASDAQ, and 3:1 on the NYSE. Everything was solid all week. There were not any sudden changes in price/volume volume action or in breadth that would make you think that something was lurking below the surface.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 did post a gain. It has moved through the 1151 January peak this week. It held the move, tested it Thursday, and then it bounced. It posted a nice gain on Friday. It is coming up to the 78% Fibonacci retracement at 1175, just a mere 10 points away. It is looking solid, and it will rally likely to this level at the May peak. It may stall some and then try to make the move up to the April peak. It has been showing good momentum and getting support from other areas. It may make that move despite a lot of misgivings as to how the market could perform in the Q4.

Note that some fund managers might be trying to play catch up since they missed a lot of this run off of the August low (some even off the July low). Thus there would be more money coming in and pushing the market higher and higher. You have to juxtapose this with the earnings season coming out, so it might get up to the 78% Fibonacci retracement level and then stall out. It is never a straight shot one way or the other. There are road signs -- and sometimes car wrecks -- along the way as a stock or index moves higher.


NASDAQ. NASDAQ showed similar action, breaking higher this week again. Testing and then moving up to the new rally high on the Friday close. Volume was up, so there was good buying as it made the move. It, too, is closing in on its Fibonacci extension. Here you see the May peak. Looking at the Fibonacci chart, the 78% retracement at 2434 matches the May high. NASDAQ was just about 33 points away from that level. It is just a good day's work before it makes that resistance level. How it reacts at that point, as with the SP500, tells a little what will happen down the road. It looks like these stocks are in good shape to move higher; that is, if some of these that have pulled back can consolidate. If SP500 gets a little help from the financials, that would not hurt anything. And then it could get help from some other areas as well. We are seeing that happen with some of them.


SP600. SP600 was up 1.3% and also moved to a rally high. A straight shot moving up, testing 1-2-3, moving up, testing, and moving up. Just a nice building of these small pyramids one on top of the other, showing a healthy upside move. There will be resistance near term as well. It has this gap point from April, and it will hit that at the same time NASDAQ and SP500 hit their 78% retracement marks. Indeed, looking at the SP600 78% retracement level, it is just above that gap up point. It is going to be bumping into its resistance just about the time that the other indices do the same.


SOX. Semiconductors were up almost 1%, but they have not done anything on the week. Maybe holding steady is a win for this sector. It overcame the downgrade of the chip equipments sector as well as MU's missed earnings. All it could do was bump the 200 day EMA on the high and back off modestly to the close. It is trying to make the break through. It is not turning tail and running, but it is still following the other indices. Indeed they are probably dragging the semiconductor index higher whether it wants to or not.


LEADERSHIP

Financial. Once again, as the market moves higher, financials did not. JPM was down, but it is on the 50 day EMA. It has an interesting pattern, and maybe something comes of it. Maybe. GS bounced up to the 200 day EMA, posting a 1% gain. Interesting, but it is just at the top of its range right now. I guess you could call this a triangle. I have been watching these patterns form up in the financials, but they are not as pretty a pattern as I would want to see. There is something here, but I do not think they are quite ready. Looks like there could be more rotations here before they break higher. On a positive note, they are setting up, and we will continue to watch them. WFC looks a lot like JPM. It rallied up, it has pulled back a couple of days, and it is holding at the 50 day EMA. It is trying to set up for another bounce. That would be very helpful for the SP500 and the other indices. Note that a lot of those financials start reporting their earnings next week, and that will be important news for the market overall. Financials still make up a big percentage of the SP500 despite being gutted and trampled over the last three years.

Metals. Metals had a great week. AA beat its earnings and had a great day, bouncing over the 200 day EMA. FCX continued its unbelievable gold-like run higher. Steel is better, but STLD is still mired in a range. AKS is also mired in a range.

Technology. AAPL made a new closing high on this rally and bounced back nicely. It did not give up, and it did not have the issues a lot of other stocks have. Really nice boost for NASDAQ. GOOG had a good day as well. It is moving laterally, forming a flag on top of a flag. No complaints on how it is moving, but I would like to see more action. EMC has been an interesting stock for the market over the last several months. It is not performing as well, and that is something to keep an eye on. FFIV continued to sell, but it also rallied off of its low. Note that that was off at the last consolidation level. We will see if anything develops there. AKAM is very negative. A little head and shoulders and a break lower. It tried to hold an important level, it slumped through it on Wednesday, and it is making a low-volume recovery to that level. You call this a downside play.

Agriculture. There was data about the corn crop being pathetic, and that blasted them higher. AGU surged to the upside, and MOS gapped as well. It was a banner day for those stocks once we found out that we need more food produced and the crops will not be that great.

Retail. Retail had a good week as well. Good comeback with the same store sales. It was better than expected overall, with some saying the back-to-school season was really great. ANF gapped higher and continued to move to the upside on Friday. ZUMZ continued higher as well after it gapped up Thursday on its same store sales. There are many stocks in retail performing well and coming back to life. It is a huge sector, and not all of them move at once. You can never say all of retail is doing better. It is easy to say that, but in reality it is divided into many sectors. Overall, however, retail is performing quite nicely.

The question is how many new groups will come up and help us out. There is some movement in chemicals. There is movement in the retail stocks, although they have been volatile of late. Metals continue to move well, and some of the small industrials are starting to move. There were some coal stocks heading higher. There are stocks out there stepping up. They are coming in off very low prices, but not because they are in the trash heap. They have been working on their bases while the rest of the market rallied. Some of them have started to move up as some of the market pulls back on profit taking. That is, if it can continue and we see more of them move up, that is a sign of rotation. That the very healthy for the market. There is still not a lot surging higher to fill the shoes of those that moved ahead of it, but more and more are getting money thrown their way. Maybe we will see the tide turning before too long.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. Volatility has broken below its lows from late spring 2010. As the market broke higher, volatility broke lower. It did not produce a selloff as it had in July and as we thought it might have done in September. Looked like it might do it, but no. It is going to break down. This is not necessarily a bad thing. It likely just tells us that the correlation that set up during this period is now broken because the market is moving to a new range in itself. Volatility can fall to very low levels for extended periods, and it does not mean that the market is going to start selling again. You have to watch for the correlations when they set up. They did for awhile, but now it looks like that is not the case. The market the breaking higher, volatility is falling, and that is exactly what I would expect it to do.

VIX: 20.71; -0.85
VXN: 21.98; -1.08
VXO: 19.74; -0.86

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; -0.22

Bulls versus Bears:

The CROSSOVER from August is long gone but it did its job.

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 45.6% versus 43.3%. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. Again, investors play catch-up with the market. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 28.3% versus 27.8%. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level considered bearish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

NASDAQ enjoyed the 'golden cross' this past week, a positive indication as it shows near term momentum swinging.

Stats: +18.24 points (+0.77%) to close at 2401.91
Volume: 1.944B (+7.67%)

Up Volume: 1.285B (+117.75M)
Down Volume: 646.807M (-8.287M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.54 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.27 to 1

New Highs: 137 (+24)
New Lows: 25 (0)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Almost, basically a gnat's butt, from the golden cross.

Stats: +7.09 points (+0.61%) to close at 1165.15
NYSE Volume: 945.135M (+3.25%)

Up Volume: 704.545M (+333.787M)
Down Volume: 232.256M (-290.175M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.03 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.17 to 1

New Highs: 330 (+20)
New Lows: 7 (-2)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +57.9 points (+0.53%) to close at 11006.48
Volume DJ30: 152M shares Friday versus 142M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

Next week there is more data, but the jobs report is out of the way. Everyone lets their breath out after that. The minutes of the Fed come out on Tuesday. Continuing claims and initial claims are on Thursday, and then there is more interesting data on Friday with retail sales for September as well as Michigan Sentiment and the New York Fed. There will also be the business inventories number. It will be interesting to see whether it is falling or rising and whether that is due to sales are falling or rising. That will give a barometer of where this recovery is.

What will be the real driver next week? There are two things occurring. Number one is the technical move that we are seeing with NASDAQ and the SP500 wanting to move up toward their 78% Fibonacci retracement. That will be a key level because it shows just how much strength the move has. If it turns tail and dives lower, that is a problem. Often they come back and test again, however. If that fails, it typically means a rollover. That is a long way off before seeing what is going to happen along those lines. I am anticipating a move up to that 78% level. Then this run we are currently on will need to take a breather, and it will then come back and test. It will either sell off or continue on, making the break and heading toward a full retracement of the April to July selloff. Things right now are looking solid. More leadership will have to show up and start pulling its own weight.

The other aspect, of course, will be earnings. They really take off next week, and they could help give us a bump and run up to that 78% Fibonacci retracement level. The market is moving as if it wants to go there, and some decent early earnings, such as AA, could give the market the impetus to run up to that level sooner than later. As we have seen in many earnings cycles, there is an initial reaction that is either positive or negative, and then the back half of the season trades in the opposite direction. That is often the case when you have stocks rallying into earnings, getting a good boost initially. We rallied into them because we thought they would be better, and they are better. So they rally some more, but then they run out of juice and sell back on the back half of the season.

The only thing that means to us is that we have to be more cautious around the 78% retracement level. Indeed, we will look to take some gain off of the table when the indices get there. Of course, that is always our game plan. We have good runs to the upside; we take gain of we have a good, sustained move; and then we let it make its test and set up all over again. The 78% is a little more important simply because it is the 78% level. It is a long retracement, and it is hard to keep the momentum up much longer past that unless it is very, very solid. The 78% Fibonacci level will tell us a whole lot about this market. It could make it all the way up there, it could make it there and stall. It could blow past it and come back and test, or it could test and then break down.

There are always many options that can happen as the market moves, but right now there is good volume to the upside, breaking through resistance. There is enough leadership to get the job done. I would like to see more coming in from new areas, and maybe that was starting last week. Financials look like they are in position to move. They have pulled back ahead of their earnings, albeit modestly, and some of their patterns are building. They are not what you would tell your mother to invest in, but they are getting to that point. If we got good earnings, they may try to make a move. That would really help SP500. The question is how much we want to buy moving towards the 78% retracement given that it is very close on NASDAQ and SP500. We will never turn down a good set up. A lot of these stocks have not become extended because they did not participate in much of that rally that started off the July and August lows. They are not that extended, and they could have room to run even if the overall market bumps into those levels and stalls out. If we get that run up to the 78% range, we will be taking some gain off the table.

I will still be looking for the plays that are obvious -- the stuff that looks good and still has plenty of room to run. They may run even further beyond the indices even if the indices stall at the 78% level. I do not know if the indices will do that. I could try to start guessing where the tops and bottoms are, and I do always make educated guesses as to where they might peak or might bottom, but no one knows for sure. Many a good trader has not scored the profits he should have scored on trades by cutting it off too early because he figured this is the top or the bottom. I stand here guilty as charged; I have done it before and I still do it on trades instead of letting them all run. That is why I often take partial profits and let the trades continue to run. We all do it here in the office because we are not smarter than the market. We play the probabilities as best we can, and then you have to let the probabilities work for you. When they do, you just let them run and let them make you money.

I have seen that over and over again in the last several months with these plays that continue to run higher. Eventually they run out of juice, such as FFIV, but it sure does make you a lot of must be in the interim. You just continue to let those positions run for as long as they will, and that is how you make your money. Pick high-probability plays, and then you let the probabilities work for you. It is like playing blackjack -- not that I want to compare this to gambling. The only one who can get away with it is James Bond. If you play the probabilities, however, you increase your chances of winning. If you play and let your stocks run for you, you increase your chances of winning and winning big.

Enough of my lesson on probabilities, although it is one of the hardest to learn. Out of 10 trades, you may only have four that work, but you will still make good money in the stock market if you manage your trades and the probabilities. With that, I will see you on Monday with some more plays in our pockets and ways to make money as the market continues on toward the 78% Fibonacci retracement.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2401.91

Resistance:
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.
2530 is the April 2010 peak (2535.28 intraday)

Support:
2382-2395 from 2008
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2310 is the August 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2294
2292 is a low from January 2008
The 200 day SMA at 2289
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the recent August intraday low


S&P 500: Closed at 1165.15
Resistance:

1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
1119 is the early December intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 1119
The 50 day EMA at 1118
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows


Dow: Closed at 11,006.48
Resistance:
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11258 is the April 2010 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 10,582
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 10,488
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

October 08 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, September (08:30): -94K actual versus 0K expected, -57K prior (revised from -54K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, September (08:30): 64K actual versus 74K expected, 93K prior (revised from 67K)
Unemployment Rate, September (08:30): 9.6% actual versus 9.7% expected, 9.6% prior
Hourly Earnings, September (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, September (08:30): 34.2 actual versus 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
Wholesale Inventories, August (10:00): 0.8% actual versus 0.4% expected, 1.5% prior (revised from 1.3%)

October 12 - Tuesday
Minutes of FOMC Meeting, 9/21 (2:00)

October 13 - Wednesday
MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications, 10/08 (07:00): -0.2% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., September (08:30): 0.5% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, September (08:30): 0.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 10/09 (10:30): 3.09M prior
Treasury Budget, September (14:00): -$32.0B expected, -$46.6B prior

October 14 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/09 (08:30): 449K expected, 445K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/02 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4462K prior
PPI, September (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Core PPI, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Trade Balance, August (08:30): -$44.5B expected, -$42.8B prior

October 15 - Friday
CPI, September (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail Sales, September (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, September (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.6% prior
NY Fed - Empire Manu, October (08:30): 6.0 expected, 4.10 prior
Michigan Sentiment, October (09:55): 68.6 expected, 68.2 prior
Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.5% expected, 1.0% prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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Sunday, October 03, 2010

New Quarter, New Money, Market Rallies

SUMMARY:
- New quarter, new money, market rallies, but still no breakout even with financial trying to help.
- Data good enough to support a rally, but stocks just don't.
- Income and spending rise as sentiment climbs
- ISM still expanding, but slower than expected and in prior months
- FOMC member reiterates the Fed stands ready to 'cut' rates.
- SP500 still has 1151 in its sights, then 1175 . . . if it gets support from new sectors or perhaps the testing leaders find renewed strength.

Plenty of reasons to break higher but just a lazy session.

All the data was there, and it was plenty good enough for the market to make a break to the upside. It tried to do it, but it was not very convincing. Once more the SP500 failed to take out the 1151 resistance that is marked by the January 2010 peak. That does not mean it will roll over; indeed, it still looks decent. It salvaged the lateral consolidation after a shaky session on Thursday that saw it surge through 1151 only to reverse and sell off on higher volume. To its credit, it was able to get things under control and move laterally today, and that keeps the break above 1131 alive, and the run back further in the base. I am looking for a move up near 1175 before it runs out of gas, but it may or may not agree with what I think it should do.

The news was certainly good enough. Personal income and spending ticked higher than expected, and china manufacturing improved more than expected. Michigan Sentiment was better than expected at 68.2. That beat expectations as well as the first iteration of the number. The only blemish was the ISM for September. It came in light at 54.4, with 54.8 expected and 56.3 recorded in August. Even construction was better, coming in at +0.4% when -0.5% was expected. Maybe the revision down to -1.4% in August from a -1.0% was a little too heavy for the investor class to take.

Stocks did try to start higher, and they succeeded. Futures were up. SP500 moved higher, but almost within minutes of the open it turned back down and started to sell off and turned negative. It managed to fight back. It moved up during the afternoon session and into the close, although there was weakness in the last hour. The big indices managed to close positive while lesser-known indices were lower. NASDAQ +0.1%, SP500 +0.44%, Dow, +0.4%, SP600 +0.44%, SOX -0.3%, and NASDAQ 100 -0.1%.

The big factor for the day (and one that did not get a lot of headlines) was likely the fact that it is a start of a new quarter. New money came in and, after the profit taking on Thursday, it was not able to sustain a strong move. SP500 closed below the 1151 resistance. It did not challenge it on the session. We did not get that first-of-the-quarter rush higher. That is interesting because many floor traders and fund managers expect there is going to be a lot of playing catch-up in the fourth quarter. A lot of them were under-invested through the year. They did not play the rallies or the ups and down in the summer trading range, and they did not believe in the breakout. They may prove to be right if this thing rolls over and SP500 cannot make the break through 1151, but there are gains out there. A lot of the funds have not participated in them, and if they are going to get any gains, they need to put some money to work in the market. That could send the market higher for another month or so.

I am looking for a move up to 1175 on the SP500, and that is not too far. 1220 is the high hit in April, and that is significantly higher than 1175. It all depends on how it handles the 78% Fibonacci retracement area. Looking at the Fibonacci chart, that is up at 1175, and I have the market down below 1150. There is still a nice run to get to that point, and that is the next critical area. If the retracement holds, it may come back down and then rally again to test it. That would be the key move, but you always watch for a double top at a 78% retracement of a selloff. A double top is very good indication of a selloff, but that is well down the road. I am now looking to see whether it can break through 1151 and get up to the 78% level. If it moves through 78%, it has a good shot at testing the prior peak and retracing the entire level. But first things first: 1151, and then 1175 after that.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. The dollar was hammered again. I was wondering if it would be able to bounce. On Wednesday and Thursday, it looked as if it was trying to put in a bounce, but that was not the case on Friday. The dollar sold (1.3791 Euro versus 1.3644 Thursday). There were big moves to the downside as the gutting of the dollar continues. It is due to the Fed's quantitative easing stance because it means more money printing. On Friday Mr. Dudley, one of the Fed's own, came out with a very dovish interview. He was giving numbers and percentages as to what the Fed would do. He said if the economy did not improve, the Fed would have to lower interest rates.

How can the Fed lower interest rates, you might ask, when they are at 0 to 0.25% right now? They will do it in different ways. It is not just dropping of the rates, it is manipulating how many treasuries are sold and how many dollars are sold or purchased. There are a lot of things the Fed can do to monkey around with the money supply. The funny thing is the Fed has all the subtlety of a stampede of elephants. It tries to conduct brain surgery with a sledge hammer. It does not really have the great finesse that we all would like to believe it has. Thus, when Mr. Dudley said the Fed would do what it had to do if the economy did not get better, the dollar decided to avoid the Christmas rush and dive lower immediately.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds. Bonds struggled on the session (10 year flat at 2.51%, off at 2.55% premarket). Bonds continue to work higher though it is a very choppy move. I am still looking for a continued run higher. With the Fed talking about buying bonds, that should be the case.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold. Gold continued its run, enjoying fresh all-time highs ($1,370.80, +8.20.) gold is on a run, and it should be. It fears inflation. The dollar dives and gold is doing the opposite.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil. Oil made its decision because the dollar started to dive decisively. It broke below the February and March consolidation range; it did not even try to bounce and is still heading lower. Oil is screaming higher and playing catch up at this point because the dollar is being devalued. Thus as the dollar devalues, oil is worth more. Oil is denominated in dollars, and you need more devalued dollar to pay for a barrel of oil. Thus oil is rising higher, with the past three sessions adding to its gains on Friday ($81.58, +1.61).

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


Other markets definitely show an inflation bias. You can say oil is racing up because the economies are going to be better, but I just explained why that is not true. It is because the US dollar is diving. Gold is surging higher because of that, and oil is feeding off of the dollar's demise.


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

Volume. Volume fell 20% on the NASDAQ to 1.8B shares. There is no real accumulation on this first day of a new quarter. There was maybe some money put to work, but not a lot because volume was down. Looking at SP500, you see the same thing. Volume fell almost 16% to 1.08B shares. It is elevated from where it has been, but still lower on the start of a new quarter. If you were going to see new money put to work, you would expect volume to bump higher.

Breadth. Breadth saw advancers at 1.3:1 on the NASDAQ. They came back late after being slightly lower. It was a decent 2.2:1 advancers over decliners on the NYSE. That was helped by the small caps performing decently.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 moving flat line, narrowing its range over the 10 day EMA. It is right below 1151 resistance, and that is not bad action. The Thursday reversal had me concerned because it occurred on volume. On Friday was lateral, it was a modest gain, but it was on decent volume nonetheless. Lower, but still decent. That does not tell us a whole lot. We still have to see break higher, and then I am looking for the move up to 1175 as the next key move, at least for the upside of the SP500. I still anticipate a move to the upside because it has not shown it is going to roll. Thursday was bit dicier, but it didn't change anything in and of itself.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ is working laterally, and showed a modest gain on Friday above the 10 day EMA. Tapping it on the lows and holding. It has rallied. It broke through resistance, came back to test and has rallied. It has stalled, moving laterally. It is hand-in-hand with the SP500. Not a bad picture. It could take another few days to just come out flatline laterally and then make a new break. That would be very solid action.

SP600. Small caps put in almost a 0.5% gain, but all they have managed to do is rally up to the June and July peaks. Tried to break through on Thursday and could not quite do it. They reversed and were just hanging out there on Friday. Still in decent shape. The small caps look a bit toppy here, having rallied up to those prior peaks and unable to move through. A lateral move next week would not hurt them at all.

SOX. The semiconductors bolted higher on the week, but they could not finish it out. They stalled at the 200 day EMA. They are at their next resistance. It would not hurt them to fade laterally for a few sessions, let the 10 day EMA rise up beneath them, and maybe give a new break to the upside. Right now many of the indices have rallied and are trying to consolidate a bit. That is fine. I did not necessarily like what I saw Thursday when they tried to reverse, but Friday was a decent session, especially for SP500. It held up, moved laterally, and tightened its range. It is looking as if it wants to make the break to the upside. It is at its next inflection point. I think it is going to go to 1175, but of course the market does not care what I think. It just needs to get support from the rest of the market, and then it can make the move.


LEADERSHIP

Financial. JPM managed a bounce on decent, above-average volume. It still sold off significantly over the past two weeks, and this is just a modest bounce up to the 50 day EMA. GS bounced a bit better, got a bit more volume. It moved through the 50 day EMA. It could actually provide a boost to the upside, and maybe a trade back up to the prior highs. Although it is not a whole lot of room to move for GS, I do note a higher low and maybe something breaks here. It is looking very range-bound at this point, however. Not much has changed with WFC. Up on the day, still a lot of overhead, and still not what you would call the pattern to take home to mom or at least put your mom's money into right now.

Technology. AAPL was one of the reasons NASDAQ 100 was negative on the day, but it is not a bad pattern at all. It is just pulling back on lighter trade. It has room to give, so a little pullback could give another buying opportunity on this market leader. GOOG is doing the same, moving laterally on lighter trade. A nice-looking pattern. We have a play on it, and I am still looking for it to break to the upside. There are some other stocks that have rolled well but may be in trouble near term. AKAM is selling on a little higher volume, but still below average. It has a little ABCD pattern, but it is also a bit toppy. That move is not straight up this has more of an interim head and shoulders. If it cannot bounce on Monday, we will take the rest off and see how it sells. We may be able to pick some up around these tops at just over 46 and get into a new play with AKAM. FFIV has been one of the leaders. It is hanging in there, but it is not making headway right now. Not a bad pattern, however. It does this sometimes. It made this triangle back in August and provided a new position on it. If it comes back a little more over the next few days, you might get a triangle forming again for another break to the upside, or at least for another trade out of that stock. ADTN had a good end of the week on very strong volume. I am pleased with what I saw there. MICC showed a second doji at the 50 day EMA on strong volume. It is very interesting. It is at other support as well, and I am looking for this one to bounce and make a play on it as well.

Healthcare/Biotech. ESRX had a nice flag that has formed after something of a double bottom. CELG is very similar. It has kind of a double bottom. It broke over some resistance, and now it is working laterally the last week and testing that move. There is some upside room here that makes it quite interesting; there is new life in these. That helps support the market even though some of the leaders of late are flagging a bit.

Industrial. CAT has a nice flag pattern and is pulling back to test. It had a gap higher a week ago. If it gaps lower from here after this strong run, you have an island reversal. That is something to watch out for because that would set up downside for this market leader. CMI is continuing to creep higher, but its move has slowed tremendously as it has maintained its upside. DE is diving. We took some gain off the table the other day. We will see where it lands and if we can get a new play on it as well.

Energy. Energy has been interesting. RRC is one of the plays I like. It has been working laterally the past couple of days to test that strong move to start the week. Tapping at the 50 day EMA on the low on Friday and rebounding. Good point to enter if you are not in, or a good point to add to if you are already in. XTEX had strong upside volume on Friday. Could be some money for the new quarter being put into these stocks. Look around for some small energy stocks. They may prove fruitful, particularly with oil moving up.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. Volatility is holding basically flat. SP500 has moved up to the 1151 resistance and has started to work laterally. As it has done that, volatility is working laterally as well. It tried to jump on Thursday as the SP500 rallied and then reversed. That was a bit of a strange day, and volatility bumped higher on it. It was immediately back down on Friday. Recall that in August, when volatility hit this level, the market peaked. We are at that level again. The market is stalling, but it has not indicated that it has peaked. Still looking for a breakout. It is important to note that volatility is hanging in there. It is not showing a lot, although it is waving a caution flag because it is at the level where the market put in an interim high and rolled over at resistance back in August.

VIX: 22.5; -1.2
VXN: 23.98; -0.98
VXO: 21.05; -1.35

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.82; -0.02

Bulls versus Bears:

The CROSSOVER from the prior week reverted, but the bulls and bears are still close together. That crossover is a bullish indicator, and the market has rallied off of it. Question is, did it generate the momentum for a range breakout?

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 43.3% versus 41.4%. A more modest rise after the jump from 36.7%. Still on the run upside as investors play catch up with the market. Now we will really see if this rally drags more money back to the stock market. Back above the 35% threshold, below which is considered a bullish indicator. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 27.8% versus 29.3%. Losing a bit more ground as more turn bullish. Below 30% for the first time in four months, continuing the decline from 37.7% four weeks back. Further below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +2.13 points (+0.09%) to close at 2370.75
Volume: 1.879B (-19.95%)

Up Volume: 1.004B (+222.953M)
Down Volume: 901.842M (-738.081M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.35 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.02 to 1

New Highs: 107 (-28)
New Lows: 15 (-14)


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +5.04 points (+0.44%) to close at 1146.24
NYSE Volume: 1.083B (-15.85%)

Up Volume: 804.87M (+269.024M)
Down Volume: 260.581M (-442.121M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.01 to 1

New Highs: 302 (-42)
New Lows: 8 (0)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +41.63 points (+0.39%) to close at 10829.68
Volume DJ30: 162M shares Friday versus 215M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

There is a lot of data out, and it is the employment report week. That means Friday we will have the payroll report. Right now they are not too excited about it. They are expected no new nonfarm payrolls, but that is better than the -54K in August. It is just a crapshoot at this point.

We start the week on Monday with some factory orders and pending home sales. Everyone wonders what sales are pending or, in recent times, not pending. Although I have to say that July was a nice bump up 5.2%. ISM services are on Tuesday, but that has really gone by the wayside. Everyone is focusing on the ISM that was out on Friday. NBA mortgage applications are out. Then the ADP will be the warm up for the Friday jobs report. Initial claims will be on deck Thursday for the jobs report, and they are not expected to get any better. Then there are the nonfarm payrolls. I will be watching the average hourly workweek a lot. I will be watching the unemployment rate to see if more people are coming into the market.

I heard some rather discouraging words on Friday about the prospects for employment. They say we could have 9.7-9.8% all the way through 2011. This is based on economic growth, GDP expectations, and what the PMI has been showing. There is no job creation in the pipeline, and that is not very encouraging. Those are the economic reports, and the market will have to deal with them. It will be anticipating the jobs report on Friday, so there might be a slowdown ahead of that.

Technically, the key is what SP500 does near term with 1151. I would not mind seeing it and the other indices move laterally for another couple days and then make a new upside break. SP500 got a little dicey Thursday, but it looks like it is trying to set up for that move if it can continue the lateral trend. That would not be bad at all, and it would benefit all the other indices as well. They have rallied decently over the past week and a half, and now they are just bumping resistance and need a rest in order to recharge for a new break to the upside. Stocks are still setting up just as other big names are coming back down. The big leaders earlier in the rally are not tanking. Some of them are a bit dicier, but they are not rolling over and plunging lower. There are new sectors with healthcare, drug areas, and bio tech. Energy is trying to step up as well, and there are some other techs showing themselves that have been out of play for awhile. There are positions that are trying to set up as new leader areas. They are not that stellar. They have not had a clear-cut rush of volume their way.

We do have a new quarter still, and it was Friday. Maybe it was not an accurate representation of the new money that may be put to work. I am going to watch for how the money and volume moves early next week. That will give more of an idea of what kind of money is being put to work and if there are managers out there trying to play catch up that will start driving things higher. We will see. That seemed to be the pervasive notion in the market on Friday. Again, always be concerned when the majority starts thinking one way because then it typically runs the other way. We will see what happens, but I still see good enough plays where we can put our money.

You have to watch out. You do not want to get caught with your pants down if this thing starts to fall back on us. There are indications that things are not perfect out there in the stock market. If the sellers continue to show up with some downside volume, we will continue to prune gains. The beauty of it is we have already banked a lot of gains on the upside, so we are in decent shape in that regard. We do have new positions we were taking last week in anticipation of a breakout. They are showing us good moves, but the market has not been able to capitalize yet. There has not been a groundswell of new leaders cropping up and shooting the market back to the upside and supporting a breakout. If the market does test a few more days, maybe some of these leaders will turn back up and start to lead once more. AAPL was not in such a bad position to do that. It has pulled back and has had a strong run. We could look for a pullback to the 38% Fibonacci retracement. It is still well above that level. The retracement is at 272 roughly, closed at 282. It does not necessarily have to get back there, but in this range, it has the prior peaks as well. You can find a pullback anywhere from 272 to 277 and it could still move higher.

One thing instructional to note is that AAPL did rally up to the 127% extension of the Fibonacci of this big prior move that took it into this recent range. Notice what happened when it hit that extension: It hit it and rolled over. One of the traders here in the office pointed it out to me the other day and said you usually play these when you have a break like this that moves up to the 127% or even higher. He said we play these back to the downside because it will run, particularly if you have had a move straight up for a long period of time. You will come back and make the test. You can see it hit the 127 and it is coming back up. You would expect it to come back to the 38% retracement of this last move. That would give you a very nice gain indeed. Basically from 295 down to 272 gives a very good short. We talked about selling calls on AAPL, but we could also have played it downside. Looking for too much upside, and I could have also been mixing in some quick hitters to the downside. That is a little instruction. Remember to look for that whenever you see a good move such as this.

There is still plenty of upside out there, and I will be looking for it. If we get a little more pullback to start next week, then that will set up these plays even better. Then we can make some upside gains and log more positions and upside gains. Have an outstanding weekend.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2370.75

Resistance:
2382-2395 from 2008
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.
2530 is the April 2010 peak (2535.28 intraday)

Support:
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2310 is the August 2010 peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
The 200 day SMA at 2285
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
The 50 day EMA at 2274
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the recent August intraday low


S&P 500: Closed at 1146.24
Resistance:

1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
1119 is the early December intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 1118
1114 is the November 2009 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1111
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows


Dow: Closed at 10,829.68
Resistance:
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11258 is the April 2010 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 50 day EMA at 10,506
The 200 day SMA at 10,475
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

September 28 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, July (09:00): 3.18% actual versus 3.3% expected, 4.21% prior (revised from 4.23%)
Consumer Confidence, September (10:00): 48.5 actual versus 53.0 expected, 53.2 prior (revised from 53.5)

September 29 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 09/24 (07:00): -0.8% actual versus -1.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 09/25 (10:30): -3.47M actual versus 0.970M prior

September 30 - Thursday
GDP - Third Estimate, Q2 (08:30): 1.7% actual versus 1.6% expected, 1.6% prior
GDP - Deflator, Q2 (08:30): 1.9% actual versus 1.9% expected, 1.9% prior
Initial Claims, 09/25 (08:30): 453K actual versus 457K expected, 469K prior (revised from 465K)
Continuing Claims, 09/18 (08:30): 4457K actual versus 4450K expected, 4540K prior (revised from 4489K)
Chicago PMI, September (09:45): 60.4 actual versus 56.0 expected, 56.7 prior

October 01 - Friday
Personal Income, August (08:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, August (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
PCE Prices - Core, August (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
U Michigan Consumer , September (09:55): 68.2 actual versus 67.0 expected, 66.6 prior
Construction Spending, August (10:00): 0.4% actual versus -0.5% expected, -1.4% prior (revised from -1.0%)
ISM Index, September (10:00): 54.4 actual versus 54.8 expected, 56.3 prior
Auto Sales, September (14:00): 3.8M expected, 3.7M prior
Truck Sales, September (14:00): 4.9M expected, 4.96M prior


October 04 - Monday
Factory Orders, August (10:00): -0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
Pending Home Sales, August (10:00): 1.0% expected, 5.2% prior

October 05 - Tuesday
ISM Services, September (10:00): 51.8 expected, 51.5 prior

October 06 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Application, 10/01 (07:00): -0.8% prior
ADP Employment Change, September (08:15): 18K expected, -10K prior
Crude Inventories, 10/02 (10:30): -0.475M prior

October 07 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/02 (08:30): 455K expected, 453K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/25 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4457K prior
Consumer Credit, August (15:00): -$3.0B expected, -$3.6B prior

October 08 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, September (08:30): 0K expected, -54K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, September (08:30): 70K expected, 67K prior
Unemployment Rate, September (08:30): 9.7% expected, 9.6% prior
Hourly Earnings, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, September (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
Wholesale Inventories, August (10:00): 0.4% expected, 1.3% prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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