- Stocks get some good and some bad, trade all over the map, but then post strong rallies.
- Q2 GDP not as bad as expected: when worse is better
- Michigan sentiment disappoints along with Bernanke as he fails to provide any concrete action.
- Stocks again swallow bad news, hold at support, rally.
- Stocks set for a bounce in the range. How far depends upon whether laggard sectors play a bit of catch up.
- A passel more economic data to come, capped by the jobs report. Can the market handle the truth again, i.e. the economy is not that great right now?
Stocks overcome the news, hold support and rally.
It took a while on Friday, but the market got its feet underneath it and was able to rally. It posted strong gains across the board, but it was not easy. The GLD numbers came in before the open, and they were a bit better than expected at 1.6%. That was better than the 1.4% anticipated, but well off the 2.4% in the first iteration of the Q2 number. Futures were up in a bizarre case of "lower is better" since it was not as bad as thought. The market opened higher, but then it sold off. It started back up, but then two things happened: Michigan Sentiment and Ben Bernanke's speech.
Michigan Sentiment came out almost a half hour into the open, and it showed a 68.9 reading versus the 70 expected. That was even below the 69.6 originally reported, and that sent the market into a tail spin. It sold off from gains to negative. Then Ben Bernanke's speech at the Jackson Hole Conference was put on top of that. He did not offer anything concrete. He said the Fed stood ready to do whatever it took in the event that it was needed. Investors thought it was needed now. That coupled with the Michigan Sentiment pushed stocks sharply lower.
It was a zigzag all morning, but the important thing was SP500 held 1040. That is coincident with the May and June lows. It held that level for the fourth time this week, and this time there was a sharp upside break. Short covering ahead of the weekend? Perhaps, but there was volume behind the move as well. The stock market has been showing the ability to hold support despite bad news. Friday was another day without very good news. There was a continuing M&A battle over IPAR between HP and DELL. That has some people excited, but overall the theme is that the economies of US and Europe are simply not that strong. That was weighing down the market.
US came out with relatively weak data all week, but that did not sink the indices below support; they are still in their range. When it was apparent that was not going to happen on Friday, they shot to the upside, and there was good leadership along the way with some of the stocks I talked about (such as the China stocks). Others were picking up nicely as well. Those leaders we were looking at to pull some weight actually started to do so. Not all of them, however. The financials need to come to the show, but the market has been able to rally without them at least trade in the range. If it is going to break out of the range, it will need their support along with the semiconductors. They have been a drag on the technology side of the equation.
On Friday the big news was a very choppy morning, back and forth trade. It looked like another selloff was in progress, only to hold support and reverse nicely. When I say nicely, I am talking about very solid gains. NASDAQ +1.6%, Dow +1.6%, SP500 +1.6%, SOX +2%, SP600 +2.66% that was huge. NASDAQ 100 was only up 1.3% versus 1.6% on the overall NASDAQ; that shows that the small caps were in the lead. What have I said about small caps and how important they are for determining what will happen with the future of the economy? We are seeing a bit of it. They were relative strength leaders all week. On the downside days they were not down as far, and on the upside days they posted better gains. That is a good sign.
The market is swallowing bad news and staying in its range. The market is a discounter of future corporate earnings, and earnings are tied to the economy. Small caps are very much tied to the US economy. If they start to break sharply higher and lead the market even, dare I say, break out later on that bodes well for the US economy. For now, we got the bounce we were looking for, and I am happy to take it. We already have great positions in place, and we will be looking to take more next week.
OTHER MARKETS
Dollar. The upside move and the ability to hold support over the past several sessions had stymied the moves we had seen in the fear sectors. The DXY0 was struggling on Thursday, and it struggled a bit more on Friday. There was no selloff (1.2734 Euro versus 1.2720 Thursday). It was peeling back to test. It is not the trouble, but it just made a good reversal from its downtrend. It tested that reversal, rallied again, and now it is putting in another flag pattern at the 50 day EMA. There is still plenty of room for it to run up to the key resistance level just below 85 on the DXY0. It has not changed anything; there was just no need to rush into the dollar on Thursday and Friday. That was particularly true on Friday because stocks were performing better and the fear level died down as the session went on. Perhaps investors thought helicopter Ben would not do anything to stop the Fed stimulus. He stands ready to do something no one knows exactly what in the event things worsen in the US economy.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. The strongest indicator of all on Friday was the bond market. Wednesday I noted the gap and reversal, and we took a big chunk of our TLT gain off the table (somewhere around 250% on the options). Thursday it tried to move up again on a little fear, but on Friday there was no fear. The bond market sold off sharply (US 10 year 2.64% versus 2.48% Thursday). We took the rest of our TLT (what little we had) off the table, banking that gain. Bonds as a fear play suddenly lost the fear aspect. That is a key piece of the puzzle I am looking at. The stock market is holding the bottom of its trading range, and bonds have been shooting higher as the stock market sold off into the bottom of its range.
On the SP500, it is selling in August while the TLT has been rising in August. Then, suddenly, a massive reversal. Bonds all of a sudden do not look so great. They will fill the gap from mid August, but the question is whether they break below the June and July peaks. We sold out. Bonds are not having the fear money put into them. Remember, the bonds market is a very good indicator of the economic future. They have been racing higher, and that had me very concerned about what was going on. That was mitigated somewhat by what the stock market was doing. If bonds sell off and interest rates rise, even if the Fed says it will help out, you can read that to mean bond traders are perhaps seeing improving economics. It could also be seeing more inflation down the road.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold. It was not a banner day for gold either. Gold gapped higher Thursday and sold off. It rallied again to just below the Thursday peak, and faded back to close just slightly higher on the session ($1,239.80, +2.00). Whichever market you look at, it was not a big day for gold. It has bounced up to this prior peak, but it is stalling below that level. Indeed, take a look at the GLD and its Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from June into early August. It has bounced up to the 78% Fibonacci retracement, and that is where the bulk of the last trade has been. It is having a hard time moving through that level. This shows that the recovery for that high means there is not that much downside momentum. When there is a recovery to the 78%, start looking for a roll back over if it cannot break through. If it forms a double top here, that is almost a sure sign that gold will be heading lower.
The interesting feature about the action on Friday was that gold was not rising higher on fears of inflation. Remember, bonds could have been selling because of a fear of inflation if the Fed was going to be very loose with money. They weren't they were just selling from what it looks like, and that may be on economic improvement. Gold is not spiking through the moon; it is struggling at the 78% Fibonacci retracement. It bears watching, and indeed we have a GLD play to the downside because it is at the 78% Fibonacci retracement. We could get a nice fall down to these lows from July and August, and then maybe a bounce higher before a double top at the 78% retracement sends it lower toward the July low. We will have to see how it develops, but this looks like a top at least an interim top.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. If the stock market was doing better because it is factoring in positives with respect to the economy, you would expect oil to be up. That is precisely what happened. After a very nasty three-week selloff, oil was churning back to the upside ($75.17, +1.81). That is almost a 2.5% move on the session. It held this interim support this week and bounced. Again, if there is a belief that the economy is going to improve, one would expect oil to improve and it is. Fill up your gas tanks before oil rallies back up over $80 and they jack the price back up.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
TECHNICAL SUMMARY
INTERNALS
Volume. Volume was up 20% on NASDAQ to 2.1B. Not a blowout session at all, but it was good to see volume rise on an upside day. At 1.1B, volume on the NYSE was not a barn burner, but it made it up to average. I will not complain about that. A 4% rise is a 4% rise on a summer Friday. Think about how many Fridays have been deathly quiet in the market.
Breadth. Breadth was relatively outstanding, but that is how it has been. It is big either way the market goes. 4.5:1 on the NASDAQ, and 6.6:1 on the NYSE. The small caps were exploding into the lead and they were doing the same on NASDAQ. Big upside volume, big outsized breadth to the upside. That is exactly what you want to see if you are worried about the economy, i.e., the small caps leading the charge to the upside.
CHARTS
SP500. The key was the hold at 1040. It was a very volatile morning; it whipsawed back and forth. You had a hang tough and watch the leaders. We were watching the leaders early and looking at stocks such as NTES those kind of stocks that have been holding up well during the selling. They were holding the line and moving higher in the morning. By the end of the day, SP500 posted a solid break, finally, off of the May and June lows. After four days of testing, it broke sharply higher. It did not quite fill the gap down from Tuesday, and next week it will be interesting when SP500 gets up to the May 6th flash crash low at 1065. It is sitting right below it at 1064. I think we have the momentum on our side up to these interim peaks at a minimum. It may make it back up to the bottom of the January peak and the June peak as well. Now it would be the July/August peak from the last time SP500 visited that level.
NASDAQ. Same kind of action on the NASDAQ. It undercut the February low again, touched down where it touched bottom on Wednesday and rallied back up for a gain. It, too, has not filled the gap. It has much fun to come, but we are seeing good action in MACD. There is a higher high when price was below the June peak, and that is a positive divergence. There is a little bit of momentum; maybe it will make it up there. It may not get that far and it only get to the 200 day EMA, but I still anticipate a good move here based upon the indices swallowing a lot of bad news and hanging onto support.
SP600. SP600 held the July low. Remember, it never broke its February low. It has held the July low, and it still has the head and shoulders look to it, but it was a big move. Lots of small caps moving well a 2.6% move is nothing to sneeze at but it has a lot of resistance. It has the May 6th flash crash, it has the June low (it is just at that point), and then it has the January peak to deal with. Not to mention the March, June, July, and August peaks. It is never easy digging out of a hole, and that is what has to happen when stocks or indices sell off. It happened in July. It was not a straight shot, and it never is. Now we see what kind of guts the small caps have as they move higher. Is it a harbinger of better economic times to come, or is it just a technical bounce in the range? I will be more than happy with a technical bounce in the range because that is what I have been looking for all week.
SOX. SOX broke to a new low on this selloff intraday, and then reversed to close positive. It did not scare anyone with this move. The most interesting thing is it held the February low and reversed off of that after toying with it all week. Still have to get above the Tuesday gap, and it has to get back up to this gap point from mid August. There is a lot of resistance overhead. When it gets to that gap point, it will struggle a bit. What the SOX does at the August gap down point will tell us a lot from the tech side of the equation whether the bounce will have any stamina. If it blows through there, that is a very good indication that the bounce for NASDAQ and SP500 is going to go into the upper reaches of the trading range. If it stalls there, this may be a short-lived bounce. They might just make it up to mid range and then roll back over. It will be a key index to watch in order to determine just how strong the other indices are.
LEADERSHIP
Financial. Financials have not participated in the rally. They are not giving the kind of leadership that is going to take the NYSE indices higher or lower; they are tagging along. We will see how they respond as the market bounces. JPM was up on Friday on good volume, perhaps putting in a double bottom attempt here. At least that will give it a foot higher, and maybe it can break through that February low and move up toward the June and July peaks. We will see. GS was still lagging. It was lagging on Friday. Even though the market was up, it was down. We sold out of our positions and it just continued lower on Friday. It is a good thing we got out, but I am watching it. It has a ragged ABCD pattern, and we will see where (and if) it finds bottom and can rally once more. There are not a lot of good moves in financials. WFC was up, but it is in an atrocious pattern. We will have to see how this plays out. Financials will have to participate, or the bounce will never make it out of the trading range.
Semiconductors. AMAT is trying to mass for a bounce, but it is in a continuing downtrend that the 10 day EMA is holding in check. It does not look like it will be contributing much to the upside anytime soon. XLNX is not in much better shape. It is trying to put in a low at the prior bottom in August, but it still does not look very good itself. XLNX is not in any position to post a strong rally, although it could bounce. I guess any stock could bounce. Many other semiconductors show the same kind of patterns: The sharp selloff and not in a good pattern. NVLS has a trading range at least, and it is holding at support. It had that big selloff Friday and reversal on volume, so buyers stepped in again as they did back in May and June. We will see if it can bounce it back up. Some semiconductors look better than others, of course. BRCM held its support and bounced off the bottom of the support range on strong volume. Support is typically a range, remember. There are lows, and then a second set of lows. It has used both of them, and now it looks like it will try to bounce back up in its trading range. Semiconductors are very mixed, but overall are still very negative in their patterns.
Industrials. Industrials improved on the day, but they had a rough week. CAT gapped lower on Tuesday, but it was not able to recover much of that move. Still struggling. JOYG sold to the 200 day EMA, undercut it on Thursday, but then it managed to reverse on Friday. Still not a great pattern. There is a double top below the April peak, so it is not a picture of strength, although it looks like it will try to bounce. DE held a key level at the March and April peaks, and it reversed and managed to bounce on Friday.
China. BIDU started to bounce back up on a bit better volume on Friday. NTES gapped higher, tested, and continued upside. No volume, but it is in a nice pattern. CAGC started to move up. Low volume, and it looks like it might be ready to bounce this coming week.
Technology. AAPL did not participate sharply in the move, but it did sell off to a new low on the selling and reversed to hold the base. Perhaps we see a trade higher. An important stock for NASDAQ to continue higher. AKAM is trading near the top of its range and is still in decent shape. FFIV is all right, but it is looking toppy.
Retail. Retail is widely mixed, with some stocks sporting decent action such as NTES but that is not the rule. There has been improvement over the week, however, such as in COST. There was a big volume move to the upside, and now a nice test. It may make an interesting entry point, although there is not a tremendous amount of upside if you look at these prices and the scale of it. There is some retail improving. If you have improvement in some technology, improvement in some retail, and then the industrials can pick back up, then there is a decent move under way. It does not hurt that the China stocks are moving as well. We might be able to get some momentum in the upside on this rally. Again, I am not anticipating a breakout unless is there a lot more improvement in leadership, financials, and semiconductors. Right now we are looking for a trade up in the range versus a breakout. If it comes, that is great. If not, we will make money on the move to the upside.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX. The VIX dove 10% on Friday. A big, strong move by the stock market, but it was really a volatile session. It spiked early and reversed as the market rallied. What does this mean? Remember, look how the VIX did not ramp up during the selling. It basically held the prior peaks, and that tells you there is not the kind of fear in the market that will lead to a major selloff. Some would say that means there will not be any upside movement, but that is incorrect. The VIX can go low for a long time, yet the market rallies and rallies. Now the VIX is trading in a trading range just as the index has been trading in a trading range. This is a big move. It is a move that could mean we have a break in volatility, but we have to watch when it gets down to the levels from July and August. If the stock market stalls at that level, we will start watching to see if the stock market stalls when volatility gets down to that level. That is exactly where it stalled before, and the markets are in a trading range until they prove otherwise. That is what volatility is telling us right now.
VIX: 24.45; -2.92
VXN: 26.31; -2.57
VXO: 24.91; -2.47
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.8; -0.08
Bulls versus Bears:
Bulls still outnumber bears, but they are merging again for another possible crossover. With the market set to bounce higher in its range, however, it looks as if a second crossover this year is not going to happen, at least not yet.
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 33.3% versus 36.7%. Continuing the decline and indeed falling below the 35% considered a bullish indicator. This bolsters the upside run in the range. Bulls and bears are starting to merge again though no crossover yet. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 31.2% versus 31.1%. Barely budged after the big move from 27% the prior week. Sure would have liked more bears rising to meet the falling bulls for another crossover; that would be powerful, but we will take this. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +34.94 points (+1.65%) to close at 2153.63
Volume: 2.126B (+20.21%)
Up Volume: 1.978B (+1.703B)
Down Volume: 174.925M (-1.345B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.55 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.03 to 1
New Highs: 24 (+7)
New Lows: 88 (-10)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +17.37 points (+1.66%) to close at 1064.59
NYSE Volume: 1.09B (+4.33%)
Up Volume: 1.005B (+769.248M)
Down Volume: 79.472M (-713.58M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 6.61 to 1. The Breadth suggests more than just short covering taking place.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.86 to 1
New Highs: 219 (+29)
New Lows: 73 (+38)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +164.84 points (+1.65%) to close at 10150.65
Volume DJ30: 208M shares Friday versus 176M shares Thursday. Some good upside volume moving in here as well.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
MONDAY
The coming week is chock full of economic data. We got through some important pieces of data this week that were not good: Existing home sales, new home sales, GLD, and Sentiment. They were not that good, but the market managed to swallow the bad news and rally. It will have another chance to do that this week. There is personal income and spending on Monday. Case-Shiller and the Chicago PMI come in on Tuesday, along with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Then we will also get the minutes of the last FOMC meeting.
That is a hell of a start to the week, but it does not slow down. Wednesday we have ADP because it is the first week of September , and that means the jobs report will be on Friday. But it doesn't stop with ADP or the ISM index. There are initial jobless claims on Thursday. There is productivity, factory orders, pending home sales, and then Friday that is all a lead-in to the non-farm payrolls. Non-farm payrolls are expected to come in at -118K. A bit better than the prior month, but that is still pathetic.
With all this data, what is the market going to do? It depends on how it takes it but, technically, I like what I see with respect to the stock market particularly the SP500 and the SP600. Maybe Friday was some short covering; we will see. This market showed a lot of tenacity at this important level, whether it was SP500, NASDAQ, or SP600. I think we could get a decent bounce. It is a matter of gradation. I would love to see it make it back up to the June and August peaks. Maybe it will only make it to the interim peak, but we will just watch it. We have some great positions in place, and we will let them bounce. If it runs out of gas, we will take some money off the table.
When it gets mid-range, we will have pretty good coin built into some of our positions. It will not be my favorite target, but if it stalls out, we can take some gain off the table and then see if it continues to break higher toward the top of the range. That is what happened in past bounces. It will stall, test, and then it just works its way back to the upside. If we get a good, sharp move early in the week that carries us to that interim level, and then we anticipate it testing and moving higher. If it struggles to get up to that midpoint, then it may not make it beyond that. If we get better economic data, Katie bar the door, because we may get a serious move to the upside that has serious strength behind it.
We are going to keep looking for upside plays. We took good positions on Friday, and we will be looking for more next week. Maybe things will change; maybe it will break. This could be a false hold, but I do not think so. We will be ready with downside plays for bounces. As the week progresses, and the market moves up, there will be some stocks ripe for a bounce some that maybe broke below their ranges and have sold off and are coming back up to test. Maybe some semiconductors since the SOX and the SMH are below their ranges. If the stocks rally back up to those ranges and stall, then they could be ripe for the downside. That could coincide with the SP500 moving to the mid range or the next interim level of resistance and stalling. Then we would get downside. We have to be ready for that because we are range trading. Sometimes the market goes all the way to the top of the range and sometimes it does not.
Some confirmation would be nice early next week, but what makes me believe it will go higher is the tenacity at that prior low the ability to overcome bad news and still hold support and then to start to rally. That is why we will look for more upside plays from stocks that have made pullbacks and are still in position to move CAGC, for instance, is in good position to move higher. We will look for other stocks similarly situated to rally upside and make us money, and nice, strong patterns and support levels to bounce them up into the tops of their range. Have an excellent weekend. Remember next week is the employment week, and then we have a three-day weekend for Labor Day after that. Start factoring that in to your trading equation.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2118.69
Resistance:
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
The 10 day EMA at 2167
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
The 50 day EMA at 2225
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2272
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
Support:
2100 is the February 2010 low
2061 is the July 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 1047.22
Resistance:
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
The 10 day EMA at 1070
1078 is the October range low
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
The 50 day EMA at 1090
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1116
1119 is the early December intraday high
1131 is the June 2010 peak
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May and June 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 9985.21
Resistance:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 50 day EMA at 10,328
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 200 day SMA at 10,454
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
August 30 - Monday
Personal Income, July (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Personal Spending, July (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior
PCE Prices - Core, July (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
August 31 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Survey, June (09:00): 3.5% expected, 4.61% prior
Chicago PMI, August (09:45): 57.5 expected, 62.3 prior
Consumer Confidence, August (10:00): 50.0 expected, 50.40 prior
Minutes of FOMC Meeting, 08/10 (14:00)
September 01 - Wednesday
ADP Employment Change, August (08:15): 13K expected, 42K prior
Construction Spending, July (10:00): -0.7% expected, 0.1% prior
ISM Index, August (10:00): 53.0 expected, 55.5 prior
Crude Inventories, 08/28 (10:30): 4.11M prior
Auto Sales, August (14:00): 3.9M expected, 3.8M prior
Truck Sales, August (14:00): 5.1M expected, 5.14M prior
September 02 - Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims, 08/28 (08:30): 475K expected, 473K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/21 (08:30): 4435K expected, 4456K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q2 (08:30): -1.6% expected, -0.9% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q2 (08:30): 1.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Factory Orders, July (10:00): 0.3% expected, -1.2% prior
Pending Home Sales, July (10:00): 0.0% expected, -2.6% prior
September 03 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, August (08:30): -118K expected, -131K prior
Nonfarm Payrolls - Private, August (08:30): 42K expected, 71K prior
Unemployment Rate, August (08:30): 9.6% expected, 9.5% prior
Hourly Earnings, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Average Workweek, August (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
ISM Services, August (10:00): 53.2 expected, 54.3 prior
August 24 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, July (10:00): 3.83M actual versus 4.72M expected, 5.26M prior (revised from 5.37M)
August 25 - Wednesday
Durable Orders, July (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 3.0% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from -1.2%)
Durable Goods -ex Transportation, July (08:30): -3.8% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from -0.9%)
New Home Sales, July (10:00): 276K actual versus 334K expected, 315K prior (revised from 330K)
Crude Inventories, 08/21 (10:30): 4.11M actual versus -0.818M prior
August 26 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/21 (08:30): 473K actual versus 485K expected, 504K prior (revised from 500K)
Continuing Claims, 08/14 (08:30): 4456K actual versus 4515K expected, 4518K prior (revised from 4478K)
August 27 - Friday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q2 (08:30): 1.6% actual versus 1.4% expected, 2.4% prior
GDP Deflator - Second iteration, Q2 (08:30): 1.9% actual versus 1.8% expected, 1.8% prior
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, August (09:55): 68.9 actual versus 70.0 expected, 69.6 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com
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