Stocks Continue Their Oversold Bounce

SUMMARY:
- Stocks continue their oversold bounce, goosed by shorts concerned earnings may be stronger than originally anticipated.
- Interest rate hikes around the world boost investor interest in equities.
- Dollar, bonds behave as if rest of the world is starting to recover following that May scare the EU was imploding.
- Expiration, expiration, oversold bounce ready to drive stocks a bit higher this week.

Stocks push on, moving through their first test of the oversold bounce.

Stocks performed as expected on Friday. They continued their oversold bounce that really got under way on Wednesday with the big move, and coasted into the weekend with a decent gain Friday. Nothing huge, but a continuation of the rebound that started with the breakdown below the 2010 lows followed by the reversal. It was a false breakdown, and I love playing these. It reversed back to the upside and accelerated as it made the break on Wednesday. There could be many reasons for that. There was a view that some of the economies in the world were either improving or not as bad as originally felt in Q1 and Q2. That helped stocks tremendously starting midweek. There are also earnings next week starting in earnest. With such a large selloff on fears that the EU and US economies were stalling somewhat, there was the view that they may not be as bad as originally anticipated. We might get good results and good guidance for the future, and thus the shorts were nervous and covering. That helped the oversold bounce with a bit of juice from the possibility that earnings could be much better than expected.

I am not anticipating that earnings will be great, but I was anticipating the move higher. We were taking nice positions on the way up. As the market continues, we will let those plays continue to run. I am looking for a move back up toward the June peak, or the 200 day EMA if it can't make the June peak. You have to watch when you get in this range to see how much gas is in the tank. If there is a run up through expiration next Friday, that will give nice gain built into the positions we have been taking. We will be taking some of that gain off the table because I do not believe this is any major turn in the market. I still think there is plenty of basing that has to take place. I think the market is trying to base now, and to do so it would need to break up the six-month head and shoulders pattern. I think it is trying to do that, and I will be watching for it. If you get this kind of oversold bounce, you will get range trading back and forth. I am looking to play it up and down as it continues that move. Right now we are obviously in an upswing. I'll look for more to lock in some more profit, and after that we will have to see what happens. As of Friday the momentum to the upside remained. It was not frustrating investors yet, stocks continues to move upside, and many showed good momentum.

There was not a lot of news in the world on Friday, but the news that was there helped stocks. There were some countries raising interest rates, and that gave credence that to idea that the world economies were not as in bad of shape as originally thought. Stocks started higher on the session, they tested, and then they gradually melted up through the rest of the day. There was a last hour short-covering move for good measure to push stocks nicely positive. +1% NASDAQ, +0.6% Dow, +0.75% SP500, +1% SOX, +1.3% SP600. It was more of a growth day, but the gains were slowing down some from the early momentum. That is what one would expect. I still expect there might be some back and forth a bit of a stall that frustrated investors, and then a melt higher into the end of next week before the move runs out of gas.


OTHER MARKETS.

Dollar. The dollar was up on the session (1.2643 Euro versus 1.2703 Thursday). The dollar is well off its peaks near 1.21 hit a month back; it has had quite a slide. It was unable to hold a key support level, and now it is sliding back down to the next level. That level is the rising trendline off the bottom it made in late 2009. It is not in trouble, but it has lost some of its luster. Some of the other economies showed they are improving and were raising interest rates. The fear that was driving a lot of people into the dollar is not as rampant. The dollar has lost ground but has not lost its uptrend overall.

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Bonds. Bonds have similarly lost some of their allure as a safe haven because the economies look to be improving at least the perception is that the economies are better off than we thought in Q1 and Q2. Bonds have lost some of their ground as money is moved out of safe havens (10 year US Treasury 3.06% yield versus 3.02% Thursday). It was not long ago that yields were down at the 2.8% level. Just as with the dollar, there has been a shift of sentiment regarding the problems with economies around the world. US bonds, while still sought, are not as highly prized because they feel equities can rebound. Looking at a chart on the bond, it is selling back but is hardly in trouble. Indeed, it has set up an ABCD pattern and could test that prior peak and bounce off that level. Also notice the trendline from April rising. The old support line and this trendline intersect just about where the bond is coming back. Technically speaking that would be a double layer of support, and one would expect a bounce attempt off of it. How it fares off that bounce attempt will tell us about bonds over the next few months. If it fails, they will continue to fall and we should expect to see stocks rise. That is interesting given it is midsummer and stocks usually don't perform that well. You do see technology start to perform now, and that would be something to keep an eye on.

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Gold. Gold had a much better day. It rallied with a nice move to the upside ($1,210.00, +15.00). It may have been premature, but we used that to exit some of our GLD positions because it has moved back to the prior high before this last breakout. The GLD gapped, tested that level on the high, and then it backed off. With that action, I felt it would be best to take some of it off table and see what happens. We can always come back and pick up more gold when it is ready to make its move again. Gold had a decent day, but it had two serious breaks lower over the past month and a half. It is struggling to get back up to the prior high. We can look back and see the prior high to gold hit back in late 2009, and it is bumping up against that level right now after breaking back below it. Gold doesn't look as alluring right now. We will give it some time, let it base out, and see if it will produce another buy point for us. I still think we will be able to buy and it will run higher with all the money printed in the world. We just have to get the next best entry point.

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Oil. Oil looks to be back on track. It was seriously on the ropes with concern about the US economy over the past few weeks. It was in real trouble over the concerns about the EU in May. It rebounded off the bottom of its range. The US concerns sent it reeling, but now it is making a solid recovery. Inventories fell sharply this past week over -4.5M barrels and that helped send the price higher. On Friday it was up again ($76.20, +0.75). A very solid move back over the trendline that may challenge the March range. It is taking its time, but it is in a trading range so you do have ups and downs. It made a higher low, it recovered its trendline, and it could move back up to the top of its range if the world economies continue to move higher: If there is good earnings and guidance, that would indicate that the world economies may actually need to continue using all the oil; thus there would be more demand. Rising demand plus limited quantities equals higher prices.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


TECHNICAL PICTURE

INTERNALS

Volume. Volume was somewhat dramatic. It dropped rather precipitously, falling over 20% on NASDAQ to 1.5B shares and down 25% on the NYSE to 881M shares. Very light trade.

Breadth. Breadth was not bad at 3:1 on NASDAQ, 3.4:1 on the NYSE. It is still quite strong on these indices, and that was good to see. The moves were not huge, but they were broad. Stocks from all over the market moved higher. The SP600 was one of the big movers and was again a relative strength leader. You can understand why breadth was stronger. There are more small caps than large cap stocks. When they perform well the breadth looks good, and we like to see that because they are a harbinger of economic activity to come. If they improve and do well, then the economy will likely do well also.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 broke through the 1070 level which was its first challenge on this oversold bounce. It has hit this point many times in the past, and it is also roughly that long-term support level and is back over that. It has not put too much distance on it, so it is not out of woods. I still anticipate it to rally back toward the 200 day EMA or the June peak. That would also correspond with the bottom of the January peak. That gives it some more room, but after this big surge, it may have to move laterally for a day or two before continuing higher to end the week. I want it to be up in this range by expiration Friday. We can bank some profits. We will have to see how it works, but thus far the oversold bounce the working as anticipated. Given the low volume, I cannot put more expectation on it other than an oversold bounce that is being fueled also by short covering moving into earnings season. Earnings season may be able to give it an extra goose and send it higher. From a technical standpoint, thus far a move up to the 200 day EMA or the June peak would be all we could squeeze out of this move without something else helping it along the way.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ posted a gain as well. It moved through its first test, moving back into this gap point. It has not been back here since it gapped down just over two weeks back. This is an important move. When it gets back to the top of this gap point, that would put it at 2220. That is only 24 points away, and we will have to see how it handles that. I am still looking for it to move up to the 200 day EMA, through it, and up toward the June peak as well. This entire range will be tough for it to move into. I will be watching to see when the momentum runs out. Volume was low again on NASDAQ. It has been low on the entire move higher; indeed, volume has been lower for all the indices.

SP600. It was good to see SP600 post +1.3% and pick up momentum. It broke through resistance, and they finally put mileage on their first test. They are at the 200 day EMA as well roughly the mid-range of the January peak. This will be where it gets tough for the SP600. From the 200 day EMA up to the June peak where there is a gapdown point as well as the March consolidation range. That is about all I can hope to squeeze out of this one as well unless something changes. I think there will still be more basing after this move with all of these. Maybe a breakdown. Some say there will be a breakdown, but that's one of the good things: Everyone is so pessimistic right now, it is a benefit for the market overall.

SOX. The SOX held the long term support the entire month of May and June, and then finally made the break higher. It cleared the 200 day EMA this week, and it is trying to move back up toward the mid section of its range. That would put it at the January peak, and that is where I am shooting on most of these. Other indices failed to get there, so I will be looking to see if the other indices make it to that level this time. That would give nice gains on our upside positions. We could clear out some and see where they go from there.


LEADERSHIP

Financial. JPM mimicked the SP500 with its break below the 2010 lows and then the reversal (the false breakdown). It is setting up a nice pattern: a surge, a test, and then another surge on Friday. I like what it is showing, and looks like it can build on this and continue higher. GS had a good day on Friday as well. There is a nice bounce trying to form a rounded bottom. Before it gives us a really good buy, it may come up toward this peak in late June at the 50 day EMA and test back a bit and then start back up. We would be looking for that as our entry point on this, and that would complete this rounded bottom. It is not just big names. FITB broke higher over a resistance level on Friday after stalling at that level on Thursday. Financials are looking better, and it will help SP500 if they are on the move. That, of course, helps the entire market.

Technology. AAPL is still trading in the middle of its three-month trading range. It has bounced right in the middle, it held the middle part of that level today where it gapped up in April, and it posted a modest gain. It is not adding much, but it is not detracting at this point either. GOOG had an interesting session because it announced it had renewed its license in China. It gapped to the upside, and BIDU struggled just a little as a result. It looks like GOOG may try to have an island reversal. It gapped lower in late June, sold off, has recovered and gapped back up through that same point. That will get more momentum to the upside, maybe up to the June peak at roughly 505. That might be an interesting play to watch on the technical move alone. AKAM came off its 50 day EMA and is continuing its recovery move. FFIV took a day off on Friday. After breaking out back up to a new 2010 high, a little bit of pause in normal. Technology is showing better action, and that is exactly what I want to see. It often improves in the summer months, and we will see if more leadership appears in the techs.

Retail. PNRA was one we moved into on Friday. It had rising volume in a low-volume market as it continues to move off the bottom of its trading range. It has a well-defined support level and started to move higher. I like what I see here. I was looking for a trade back up in its range near the June peak at 85; a nice move if we can ride that one back up to that point. We picked up some NFLX. It tested back like I wanted it to after the big Wednesday surge. It came back, held the near the 10 and 18 day EMAs and started to bounce. We moved into it on Friday thinking it has room to the upside after a little ABCD pattern and a test of the initial move off that pattern. PCLN continued higher. A very nice move here, clearing the 50 day EMA and not stopping at all. It looks very solid and like it will continue to the upside. It looks like it has put in its base and is ready to run. Next entry point would be when this breakout move stalls, tests back toward the gap point, and then continues to the upside. If it can do that, that's the next point you would be looking to take some positions. CMG is one we played on this strong move upside. It has yet to respond in the market recovery, and that makes it suspect. It could break either way, but it might end up breaking to the downside because it is not moving well at all as the market rebounded in the oversold bounce. It was up much stronger and longer than any of the other stocks. Maybe it is not unexpected that it has a longer recovery period and may actually need to form a new base.

Energy. Energy has rebounded over the past week as well. A lot of stocks are moving up in the range but haven't gotten that far. They are halfway up or not even that far. SU is a stock whose price depends very much on the price of oil. It is mimicking what oil is doing. APA bounced up, but it is still just not that strong. UNT has bounced as well but it is not that strong either.

Industrial. Industrials seem to be improving on the idea that the European and US economies may not be that bad off. Although the US economy may not be as good as was anticipated. This average is that they will be okay, and thus we see those industrial stocks that may sell in Europe and other foreign countries doing quite well. CAT added a very nice +2.5% Friday on top of the nice move Wednesday. Glad to have positions in CAT as it climbed higher. BUCY may try to break out over a three-month's base. A strong move this week clearing the 50 day EMA Friday. We should not move in here. We should watch for a bit further move higher and then a test. If it can hold and make a new upside move, that's when we would want to move in.

Leadership is still out there, but it is not blanketing the market. There are a lot of stocks that have sold off and are either making oversold bounces or have put in decent bases and are moving higher. Others are just continuing to the upside and having yet to slow down significantly. That is fine. We will look for new buy points on them and on those that come off the bottoms of their trading ranges. We have seen that when moving into stocks such as PNRA as it bounces off a well-defined support range.


THE ECONOMY

Latest rate hikes in South Korea and India bolster the idea world economies are recovering.

US dollar, bonds also suggest world economies are recovering.

If Europe is recovering, Fed may raise rates sooner than expected. After all, the only reason the Fed dropped its rate hike talk was because the EU implosion in May.


TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:

http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/Economy.wmv



THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

Extreme bearishness hit ahead of this oversold rally. The AAII reported bearish sentiment at 57%, one of its highest levels ever. Investment advisors are getting bearish and less bullish, coming close to a crossover, always a significant move. It is clear that investors are very bearish and how they respond to this market bounce will give very good insight into just how pervasive the gloomy view is.

VIX. The VIX has traded down to the 200 day EMA as the market rebounded over the past week. The notable feature is that the SP500 and NASDAQ hit new 2010 lows, but volatility did not hit new 2010 highs. That was put in back in May with all the fear about Europe. That tells you that option traders are not pricing in the kind of volatility and fear they did in May, and they were expecting there to be more of a rally. We are getting that rally right now. We have had a heck of a rally on the indices with the Dow, for instance, putting in its best weekly move in a year. Will it continue? We have volatility at the 200 day EMA, and it is slowing down. The question is whether the market will be able to continue if volatility bounces. This is the point where there may be some struggling that frustrates investors and could lead them to believe that the oversold bounce has ended. I expect volatility to bounce a bit as the stock indices fade to start next week. That would be before a continued run into earnings and expiration Friday. We may get a head fake, a bounce, and then it can break through the 200 day EMA and come back down to the levels hit in April. The important thing is that the volatility did not move to a new high as the indices moved to a new low. That told us that the market was improving and there would be an oversold bounce. The question now is how far that bounce will go.

VIX: 24.98; -0.73
VXN: 25.99; -1.06
VXO: 23.54; -1.22

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; +0.04

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 37.0%. Another drop and a fairly significant one, coming close to the 35% threshold level considered bullish for the market. Down from 41.1% where it held for two weeks. Fell from 43.8%, 47.2%, and 56.0% before that. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 34.8%. Up from 33.3% as bears approach the 35% threshold level as well, not to mention a crossover with the bulls. Those crossovers are very bullish, but likely won't get there given the market rally. Solid rise from the mid to upper 20's. Fell to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +21.05 points (+0.97%) to close at 2196.45
Volume: 1.56B (-22.13%)

Up Volume: 1.19B (-239.607M)
Down Volume: 407.575M (-164.594M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.05 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.32 to 1

New Highs: 26 (+7)
New Lows: 41 (-4)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +7.71 points (+0.72%) to close at 1077.96
NYSE Volume: 881.988M (-24.41%)

Up Volume: 718.195M (-224.021M)
Down Volume: 155.932M (-58.668M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.44 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.1 to 1

New Highs: 140 (+14)
New Lows: 30 (-10)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +59.04 points (+0.58%) to close at 10198.03
Volume DJ30: 135M shares Friday versus 192M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

There is a lot of economic data on the table. Retail sales and the FOMC minutes are out on Wednesday. Initial claims on Thursday. Regional manufacturing from New York, industrial production, the Philly Fed, and then the CPI and Michigan Sentiment on Friday. There is a lot of data in addition to the start of earnings season, and all of that can work to drive the market higher. The market has been moving to the upside on the false breakdown/oversold bounce based upon very high negative sentiment. AAII has an incredibly high negative reading with bears at 57%. That negative view of the market helped turn it from this breakdown. Now we have concerns from the shorts that the market may move higher because Europe may not be as bad as was thought. The rest of the world is not as bad as believed either given central banks are raising interest rates. Therefore, we could have some serious issues with respect to the market actually selling off near term.

That is no problem if you are moving to the upside. The question is how far it will go. We may have a stall out Monday. It may continue higher, but earlier in the week I expect there to be a pause in the move. I still expect the earnings momentum and concern by the shorts to drive the market higher indeed up toward the 200 day EMA and roughly in the June peak. After that I don't expect much more. We will be looking to take some profits at that point and see what the earnings bring. We would have had a very nice run into earnings, and the initial earnings may spur the market a bit higher. We will of course be more than willing to let our positions run higher.

At the same time as it makes the move up, we have several downside plays on the report I am looking at. I am just following them higher as they move to the upside and still are below resistance points. If they turn, they would make great downside plays. I will continue to look for other downside plays this weekend and through next week. If the market does run out of steam and turn back over, it will trade right back down in its range and we can play that move. It is either going to sell off to the bottom of the range and bounce to continue the base, or it will break down and fall back down near 1000 or back into the 900's as some are predicting. It will do one of those, thus downside place will be advantageous to us. We will take what we can to the upside, and when the move starts to peak out, close a lot of them or reduce the size of our positions. Then when they fall, we can take the rest off the table, or if they move we will let them.

Often the reason we leave parts of positions on the table is because what I believe is not necessarily what the market will do. I try to anticipate tops and bottoms, but it is difficult to pick them. The market will often move up higher than you think it will. It will continue to rally and rally, and the positions you leave on the table really start to return the huge moves. We all like to think we are omniscient and can tell when the market will top and bottom, but we cannot. We can just read the technical signals, get into positions when they are good, and then ride them. What we will do is take some gain off the table at this point when it looks like the move is slowing down. Then if it continues higher, that is great. We will let those positions run and look for new opportunity to get into more. I don't think it will. If it does roll over, we will take care of our upside positions and play the downside as well while the market continues to trade in this range. That is what I think it will do. I don't believe necessarily that this head and shoulders will fully consummate. In other words, I do not think it will give us a decline that is equivalent to the amplitude from the neckline to the top of the head.

We are going to continue to let our positions run. We will look for a few more opportunities to the upside on quality stocks that have pulled back a bit such as NFLX and then started to move to the upside. We do not want to take a lot of positions in this move. We already have half our move under our belt. I want to let these positions we took on Tuesday and Wednesday rally for us and then take gain. I do not want to take a bunch of positions to the upside near the peak and have it turn back on us. We will truncate our buys to the upside, we will put on more downside plays as we see them develop, and we will be ready for the market if it turns over. I still have to view this as an oversold bounce. Lower volume on the move, very big topping pattern for the entirety of 2010. The odds are we will get a bounce that will stall out and roll back over. That is my game plan for now, but it is subject to change as always, based on what the market shows. We will always follow the market and take what it gives. Have a great weekend.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2196.45

Resistance:
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2221 is the gap down up side point from June.
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 50 day EMA at 2250
The 200 day SMA at 2253
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008

Support:
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks


S&P 500: Closed at 1077.96
Resistance:
1078 is the October range low
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
The 50 day EMA at 1094
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1106 is the September 2008 low
The 200 day SMA at 1112
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009


Dow: Closed at 10,198
Resistance:
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks
The 50 day EMA at 10,260
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,365
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

July 06 - Tuesday
ISM Services, June (10:00): 53.8 actual versus 55.0 expected, 55.4 prior

July 07 - Wednesday

July 08 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 06/26 (08:30): 4413K actual versus 4600K expected, 4637K prior (revised from 4616K)
Initial Claims, 07/03 (08:30): 454K actual versus 460K expected, 475K prior (revised from 472K)
Crude Inventories, 07/03 (11:00): -4.96M actual versus -2.01M prior
Consumer Credit, May (15:00): -$9.1B actual versus -$3.0B expected, -$14.9B prior (revised from $1.0B)

July 09 - Friday
Wholesale Inventories, May (10:00): 0.5% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.4%)

July 13 - Tuesday
Trade Balance, May (08:30): -$39.5B expected, -$40.3B prior
Treasury Budget, June (2:00): -$70.0B expected, -$135.9B prior

July 14 - Wednesday
Retail Sales, June (08:30): -0.2% expected, -1.2% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, June (08:30): 0.0% expected, -0.8% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., June (08:30): 0.6% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, June (08:30): 0.5% prior
Business Inventories, May (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 07/10 (10:30): -4.96M prior
Minutes of FOMC Meeting (2:00)

July 15 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 07/10 (08:30): 449K expected, 454K prior
Continuing Claims, 07/03 (08:30): 4425K expected, 4413K prior
PPI, June (08:30): -0.1% expected, -0.3% prior
Core PPI, June (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
NY Fed - Empire Manu, July (08:30): 18.0 expected, 19.57 prior
Industrial Production, June (09:15): 0.0% expected, 1.3% prior
Capacity Utilization, June (09:15): 74.2 expected, 74.1% prior
Philadelphia Fed, July (10:00): 10 expected, 8.0 prior

July 16 - Friday
Core CPI, June (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
CPI, June (08:30): 0.0% expected, -0.2% prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, April (09:00): $83.0B prior
Michigan Sentiment, July (09:55): 74.5 expected, 76.0 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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