- Thursday 'normal' pullback trumped by Friday gap lower.
- Solid US economic data, upside European stock gains once again cannot offset rising worries of an EU collapse.
- Rumors of France then Germany dropping the euro continue the fear trade.
- LIBOR continues its climb as EU bailout fails to calm the financials.
- Congress takes on credit companies and your use of cards as the Nanny state grows.
- Retail sales lower but beat expectations with strong revisions.
- Production climbs nicely.
- Michigan sentiment rises once more.
- First we saw mortgage applications fall 9+% and now lumber prices plunge after the home buyer credit expires.
- Stocks rebound modestly into the close: since 2009 down Fridays lead to Monday bounces.
- Gaps continue, gaps get filled, and that gives us the entry point without having to chase the bus.
Downside continues on EU fears even as US data remains solid.
Thursday was a normal pullback in a rather abnormal market condition (as well as a world condition), but Friday the market succumbed more to the abnormal side than the normal side. Stocks opened lower and sold off sharply right out of the gates. Looking at the SPYder chart, stocks were holding up fairly well premarket, though down from the Thursday close. They held up decently, but then as it moved toward the market open, stocks started to tumble. On the open they did in fact tumble hard and continued down sharply into lunch. Then they traded laterally for several hours before a late bounce pushed them back to the upside. There was solid US economic data once again, and even the European stock indices moved higher. That news could not offset the worries about a potential European Union or Euro collapse. There were rumors that France and Germany both feel that they could drop the Euro if it continues to trade down. There are the laggards in the EU, such as Greece, pulling down their currency and their economies along with the laggards. It did not help that Congress was taking on the credit card companies. The Senate was getting deep into just what banks and the credit card issuing companies could do with respect to fees. That left the market susceptible to the same fears we have seen of late. There were the fear trades in other markets such as gold moving higher, oil tanking, and bonds rallying sharply h in the US as a flight-to-safety trade. Of course the US dollar was surging against the Euro and other currencies. Even with that push up late, stocks were still hit hard on the US indices. NASDAQ -2%, the Dow -1.5%, SP500 -1.9%, SOX -3%, SP600 -2%, and NASDAQ 100 -2%. The rebound did help, but it only alleviated a very serious decline once more in the markets.
There were some positives with respect to what the charts did late, and that may figure into what happens Monday. Overall, the bias is down with the chance of a bounce near term. That is a grim scenario, but we will pick it apart later as we look at other markets and the technicals. Of course the dollar was on the front burner again as it has been for the past month. By the front burner, I am not talking about Greece and Europe on fire just using a colloquialism there.
Dollar. The dollar surged (1.2372 Euros versus 1.2531 Thursday). Indeed, it jumped through the 1.24s all the way down to 1.23, and it has not been there in a long time. We are looking at 1.11 as a support level for the Euro. If the problems are not resolved and the trillion dollar baby was not able to restore confidence, then we are looking at the Euro and the dollar trading on par. That has not happened since shortly after the Euro was issued. There seems to be no stopping the juggernaut of the dollar right now. It is something of a safety trade versus the Euro and other currencies in the world. Indeed, the DXY0 shows the US versus a basket of currencies, not just the Euro.
Gold. Gold was surging early in the session before it fell back. It actually closed with a slight gain on the session ($1,231.50, +2.30), though it was back and forth into the close. What we have here is a big breakout and a normal pullback. Gold broke above the November and December peak, and now it is coming back to test that same level. That is normal. There is nothing strange about gold coming in with a rather normal test of a prior high. Remember, this surge was the surge that took gold to a new all-time high to end 2009. Now it has broken over that, and look where it came back to test on Friday. It was tapping on the low right at the closing high that was hit back in late 2009. We saw this base setting up, and this was the time to buy. It had a little chop right in here, but a nice rally, and it is making us money. After a little test of this old peak, gold is ready to move again.
Bonds. US bonds were on fire as well. The 10 year was smoking on Friday (3.45% versus 3.54% Thursday). It gained strength all session because premarket it was trading at 3.48%. Bold, strong moves as US bonds continue to act as a safe haven for money. That money is fleeing from European bond markets and thus driving European bond yields higher and higher. That is not necessarily a good thing, although if you are having a recovering economy, you typically see yields rise simply because money becomes more valuable. If you have massive debt issues and no real hope of recovering from them, interest rates tend to spike and move toward hyperinflation because the currency and everything in the country is devalued with no bright economic future. Thus we see money flowing into the US bond market when, rationally, it should be moving out of bonds. As the US economy recovers, the Fed would be forced to raise interest rates and therefore push money out of bonds naturally if you can call any Fed action natural. That is not happening because of the fires burning over in Europe.
Oil. Oil played on the same fear trade as well, plunging down toward the bottom of its range. It was not too long ago that I was talking about how resilient oil was. Looking at a weekly chart, it was able to hold near the top of this range, broke out, and would not sell off. It looked super, but all of that changed in the blink of an eye when Europe started to catch fire. Even the massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico is not impacting the price of oil. It does not amount to much with respect to the European economies tanking and fear of contagion in the EU and beyond. Thus oil took another blast lower ($71.88, -2.52). The one positive is that we should start to see gasoline prices fall in the next week, and that will help us out for the summer. We are also not importing such high-priced inflation anymore. The dollar is stronger; oil is weaker. We are getting the synergistic effect that worked against us as the dollar fell and oil prices rose. We were importing inflation with every barrel of oil and with every tick lower in the dollar. Oil is in trouble. It is skidding right now, and we could (and should) see it try to hold up near the $70 range where it bottomed in December and again in early February of 2010. For now the fear trades are still in full bloom, and I do not see anything to stop them. Maybe the ECB and the EU will come out with a new plan this weekend that tries to bounce the market higher on Monday. Let us face it, though: you have pretty much shot all your bullets when you throw $1T on the table. If that did not stop the bleeding, another trillion will not do anything because no one will believe you.
Volume. Volume jumped back up 12% on the NASDAQ to 2.5B. Strong session, back above average, but not as strong as some of the others last week where we saw 4B share trades. Volume rose 27% on the NYSE to 1.5B. It is getting back up in that range it was trading when things were really ugly. Of course things were ugly here, and you see downside on rising volume. That shows that the sellers are in control after a pullback on Thursday. It was that ordinary, normal pullback that we were enamored with, but it was turned on its head with higher-volume selling on Friday.
Breadth. Breadth got ugly again after a pretty modest 1.7:1 to the downside on Thursday. It turned to 5.4:1 downside on the NASDAQ and 5.8:1 to the downside on the NYSE. Back to those impressive extremes both in volume and the breadth; that is what keeps this selling alive right now. What happens when things calm down? You get to extremes, and then they calm down. Right now we are not at the extremes we have been at. We still have more to go with respect to breadth and volume indeed, even new highs and new lows. When you look at the new highs and new lows, there are basically no changes going on. Before we get near a bottom, we will see the new lows explode. Remember, we saw almost one thousand new lows when the market bottomed the last time. We will have to see something getting close to those levels. 600 is a good move at that point. 600 gives a good indication you are getting to extremes. You always look for extremes in the market to make the difference and to show that turns are coming. We are not yet seeing extremes when we look at volatility with the VIX, breadth and volume, and when we look at new highs and new lows. Even the put/call ratio was at 1.11. That is good. That is starting to get extreme, but we have to see many, many sessions of that before we get to a turn. We are not there yet.
SP500. There was the volume spike I was talking about. Not quite the level hit last Thursday and Friday, but not a shrinking violet either. Very strong, above-average volume as the sellers came back and pushed the market down. That shows they are definitely in charge. Interesting features: It broke back below the January peak. It also undercut the bottom of that January peak consolidation on the low, but it recovered back above that level by the close. That is a good move. As I always say, support and resistance are ranges; they are never one particular point. On the financial stations they always like to focus on one finite point as being the answer, but that is not the case. Case in point: We have a selloff, we break a key level, but a recovery over this low. We will see if this can lead to a further bounce on Monday back up near the mid-March range and the top of the January peak. If it rolls over there, there is serious trouble for the SP500 and we will be looking for a trade down near the February levels. With the gap lower today, we were not able to get as much of a great trade as we wanted to. We did not want to chase the bus to the downside, so we are going to wait for a bounce back up.
NASDAQ. The charts were not so ordinary and mundane as they were on Thursday, and NASDAQ has a very interesting chart. There was a gap lower after bouncing into the March peak, but look where it held up. It finally made the full test of the January peak; it held it on the low and bounced back. Watch how it tried to hold this level and in fact did on Thursday as it closed back well up off the low. Friday it gapped below it, but then it immediately came back up above it. There were buyers here. There was reason for buying with the trillion dollar baby announced, and now it has come back to test this level. Now it is interesting. There is a bounce up off the January peak that acted as support, and now we will see what happens on Monday. Can it bounce back up and fill this gap from Friday? Can it get back up to the March consolidation range and the recent highs? I am not holding my breath that that will be the case, but we could get a better entry point. After a down Friday, we could have an up Monday that gives a good entry for later in the week when it rolls back over.
SP600. Look where SP600 held. It came down to its 50 day EMA that is roughly coincident with the top of this March and early April range. It bounced off of that level to the close. Not a huge move to regain a lot of lost ground, but it is just the action on the day. Where did it hold? It is not bad. I am not going to complain whenever an index (particularly a leading index such as SP600) holds the 50 day EMA and a peak from March and a low from early April. There is some support here and it held. Now we see if it can continue to hold and bounce Monday and take out this prior lower high. That will be very important for this leader of the market.
SOX. SOX does not look that healthy. Gapping lower, unable to make a big dent on the way back up. It did come back off the lows, but it is right in the middle of no man's land in an ugly pattern. The key will be if it can hold the 200 day EMA again at the other price support. If it can hold there, maybe it can make a double bottom and bounce. A lot will be riding on what NASDAQ and the SP600 do to determine what SOX ultimately does.
Financial. JPM gapped lower on the session, and that took away the new buy that we wanted on it. It also held at the prior low from Thursday, so we have to watch that. We will see how it comes back. WFC is a big credit card issuer, and it was struggling on Friday as well. Indeed, a lot of the credit card issuers were struggling because of what the Senate has passed with respect to regulating bank cards (what they can charge for fees, etc). It is designed to benefit small businesses and individuals. That is purportedly what is happening, and I hope it will work out that way. I am not too sure that will be the situation, but that is the idea. WFC is trading and bouncing up and down in a relatively narrow range. Not getting too much of an impact. On the other hand, MA gapped sharply lower below key levels. That is a breakaway gap, so it is likely to continue lower after that move. That is typically what you see on a breakaway. Once it breaks through an important level on big volume, it usually continues in the direction of the gap. V is in the same situation. There was the gap lower, and I am looking at it as a possible furtherer downside move as well. Big volume through these key levels. Again, a breakaway gap tends to continue in the direction of the break.
Retail. As I said on Thursday, it looked like retail was in the death throes of this current rally. BBBY has rolled over, made a lower high, and it is breaking through the 50 day EMA. It does not look that healthy right now. A bounce back up to test this level where it gapped (as well as that consolidation that it gapped through) would be a good chance to play the stock to the downside toward the consolidation at roughly 42-41. PCLN's price was realigned the past two weeks as it was struggling to hold ground after a stellar run. A series of gaps lower has put it down to the 200 day EMA and a support level a double bottom in early February. It has fallen through this gap level, showing a doji at the 200 day EMA. We will see if it is the kind of play that would make a new run higher, but this is not a well-established trading range yet. They all have to start somewhere, right? YUM had a great run higher. It held at the 50 day EMA and bounced. A lower high, and now it is trying to hold the 50 day EMA again. Maybe it will. This is still not what you would call a great pattern. A lot of the leadership is not in great position now, and it still has work to do to set up.
Metals. FCX bounced nicely off of some support. It gapped lower on Friday with almost everything else, but it did post a nice recovery off those lows. We are playing this for the roll higher. I see a well-defined trading range, and we will see if it can come back. It gets choppy in other moves as it continues higher, so we are letting it work. We will see if it will continue higher after it was down in sympathy with the market.
Healthcare. Medical is acting as something of a safe haven as it always does. RMD is still holding its gains, down just fractionally on Friday. It is basically immune to the selling. ILMN is also holding up and ignoring the selling. They tend to fare better of course, just as medical is considered a safe haven because everyone needs healthcare.
Leadership is highly fragmented. There are some safety areas that are still holding gains, but most of the leadership is suffering from either a correction that is going into a new base, or is in the initial stages of pulling back retailers, for example. They are trying to hold up but are being slowly beat done lower and lower, and that is typical of a correction in the market overall. Leadership thins out, and it is harder and harder to make money to the upside. We just have to take care of our positions and look for opportunity once the correction has run its course. Of course the leaders will have set up earlier and will be ready to move higher before a lot of the other stock are. We will be watching for that, but right now leadership has taken a beat-down overall. It is really just a victim of its success in the run higher before this recent pullback and correction began.
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
France and Germany hint they want out.
LIBOR continues its climb.
Lumber prices plunge after homebuyer tax credit expires.
Retail sales lower but beat expectations.
Production, Michigan sentiment solid.
There are a series of higher lows. There is the spike from Thursday and Friday a week before, then the selloff, and the pullback (given the Monday strength). With the bounce lower in the indices on Friday, there is a gap higher in volatility and a higher low. That is what you would expect as the market sells off. We are not in that serious, deep, terrible correction market where you see rising lows as the stock market hits new highs. We are definitely not seeing rising highs in the stock market; indeed, when the stock market was still making highs VIX was still making lows. That is important. It did make a higher high, but it came back and made a lower low as the market continued higher. It is a big difference. Historically you have higher lows in the VIX and higher highs in the stock index. Then you are in for a very serious correction. More than a correction more like a bear market. That is not what VIX is indicating here, and hopefully it will remain that way.
VIX: 31.24; +4.56
VXN: 31.55; +3.5
VXO: 29.49; +4.18
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; +0.25
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 47.2%. Now THAT is a drop, falling from 56.0%. That was the high on this move, never making the 60% to 65% considered bearish, but again, with the other factors it was high enough. More bulls than in February. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. Over the 35% threshold level below suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 24.7%. Surging higher from 18.7%. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the high of this leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: -47.51 points (-1.98%) to close at 2346.85
Volume: 2.517B (+12.36%)
Up Volume: 283.832M (-236.347M)
Down Volume: 2.298B (+566.29M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 5.37 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.74 to 1
New Highs: 29 (-95)
New Lows: 27 (+11)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: -21.75 points (-1.88%) to close at 1135.68
NYSE Volume: 1.522B (+27%)
Up Volume: 64.733M (-184.111M)
Down Volume: 1.455B (+519.314M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 5.79 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.81 to 1
New Highs: 84 (-86)
New Lows: 55 (+17)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: -162.79 points (-1.51%) to close at 10620.16
Volume DJ30: 265M shares Friday versus 202M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
Heading into Monday and the next session, there are a few factors that will I be paying very close attention to. Number one will be the SP500 and how it holds the bottom of the January peak consolidation. Then, if it bounces, how it is treated by the top of the January peak at 1151. That will be an important move for the SP500 since it has broken down, but it is showing it has some resilience at this particular point at 1135 or so. It can tell the tale for us as to what will happen. If it bounces back to the January peak and stalls, we will be looking to move in for a play down to more like the February low.
That changes somewhat with NASDAQ, although the theme is still the same. It is a downside-looking pattern on SP500, and it is downside looking on NASDAQ as well. Nonetheless, it has held its January peak and bounced off that level. NASDAQ can continue higher and test the March peak as well as the early-week's high. We have to watch for a bounce back up, and then we will see how strong it is and whether it can continue higher. A lot of people will be watching for this. They will say if it breaks through the March consolidation and the last peak hit on Wednesday, then it is clear for a shot higher. It may be for a little bit more, but we have to watch out for the ABC downside pattern. We have the sharp move lower. The A point is down at last Thursday's low, there is the surge back up to the B point, and this could be the C at the January peak. If it bounces back up over this week's peak and stalls out below the April high on this move the rally high then we look for a downside move back to this low as your initial target. That is the ABC down pattern, and it is basically the reverse of the ABC upside pattern. There is a lot to look at with respect to NASDAQ, the SP500, and the SP600.
The SP600 is holding as well at a key level (the March peak and the consolidation in early April), but there are the same issues with respect to NASDAQ. A sharp selloff held the January peak on the low, and that could be the potential A point. The rally back up to Wednesday could be the B point, and then the hold at the 50 day EMA on Friday is the potential C point. If it bounces up between the Wednesday peak and the April peak and turns back over, you look for a trade back down to the Thursday low from just over a week back. That is also coincident with the January peak. You would play the downside on that as well because that would be an ABCD downside pattern. We are watching to see them set up, and it takes a bit of patience. With the market and the indices in these volatile patterns, you have to have a bit of patience right now to let things set up and move. At the same time, you have to be ready to jump into place. Just because it looks like this might set up does not mean it will. It could still bounce up close to that Wednesday peak and roll back over. You could go ahead and initiate some downside positions at that point because it may not make it back up to that pattern. The bias looks like it could be down overall. The SP600 and NASDAQ are a bit stronger with their bounces off of key areas, though. They have made a lower low and a lower high. We will see how it plays out. It is still a situation that would turn into a positive if the money in terms of what the Fed is doing remains in the system. This could still turn into an ABC upside pattern where you have the strong move from February forming your A point in April. B would be the Thursday low of just over a week back. Your C point is at the high on Wednesday, and a further selloff toward the 200 day EMA and a bounce up from there would be your D point and lead to a continuation rally. We just have to see how it sets up. Again, even if you get a bounce to start the week and it rolls back over to make the D point, we can play that to the downside. We can make good money even while we wait for what could be the eventual upside pattern to take root once again.
It could go one way, and it could go the other way. That tells you that the market is in transition and is trying to determine its next trend. We want to play the tradable moves inside those trends as it continues to set up for its next move. We could get downside plays even if it ultimately moves back up. Something that was talked about on a lot of the financial stations was that down Fridays have typically led to upside Mondays; it has been true since the summer of 2009. Of course that was during the liquidity binge that we have seen in the market thanks to the Fed. There is an issue as to whether that will remain now. Although with the EU in flames, the Fed is in no hurry to remove the liquidity. It happened again this past Monday, but it was fueled by the trillion dollar bailout in the ECB. If we do get that same action on Monday, we will look for that bounce and see where it pans out and where it fizzles out. Dare I say that? Again, with SP500, we would be looking at the January peak. If it fades out in this range, we could get a roll back over and we would be looking to play that. It will be the same with the NASDAQ and the SP600. We can make money to the downside even if things move higher ultimately.
It has been a tough couple of weeks, but we have to be patient. We have to let things set up, and when they give us the plays, we take advantage of them. It may be as early as Monday when we are able to take advantage of more plays if we get a bounce up that stalls. It was very frustrating on Friday to have all these plays set up and then have the market gap sharply lower and take those plays out of contention. It is very difficult not to move in those situations, but many times you end up chasing the bus and are always just behind it. Sometimes the market just gaps away from you. Most of the time it does not and you get the plays. As we have all along on this rally actually as it started to turn over we got great plays to the downside. There are times, however, that the pressure builds up, a story hits, and it just gaps away from you. We let it go because gaps either continue or gaps are filled. That is when we move in, and we make great money when that happens. Do not let your frustrations force you into bad decisions with trade entry points. Let us keep the good risk/reward and be patient. I tell you, those gaps will either hold and we can play them as the gaps continue, or they will get filled and we can play them after the fill. Have a great weekend.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2346.85
2382-2395 from 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2398
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
2535 is the April 2010 peak
2546 from July 2007, February 2007, November 2007: a level touched many times as a high and low.
2725-2730 from the July 2007 and May 2009 peaks
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2215
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1135.68
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 1165
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
1214 is the first April peak, 1220 is the second high.
1240 is the key July 2008 interim low.
1293 from a March 2008 low
1298 is the November 2008 rebound high that made a lower high. Also part of the Q1 2008 double bottom.
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 1100
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
Dow: Closed at 10,620.16
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 10,815
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,234
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
May 11 - Tuesday
Wholesale Inventories, March (10:00): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.6% prior
May 12 - Wednesday
Trade Balance, March (08:30): -$40.4B actual versus -$40.5B expected, -$39.4B prior (revised from -$39.7B)
Crude Inventories, 05/08 (10:30): 1.95M actual versus 2.75M prior
Treasury Budget, April (14:00): -$82.7B actual versus -$52.0 expected, -$20.9B prior
May 13 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 05/01 (08:30): 4627K actual versus 4570K expected, 4615K prior (revised from 4594K)
Initial Claims, 05/08 (08:30): 444K actual versus 440K expected, 448K prior (revised from 444K)
Export Prices ex-ag., April (08:30): 1.4% actual versus 0.7% prior (revised from 0.6%)
Import Prices ex-oil, April (08:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.2% prior
May 14 - Friday
Retail Sales, April (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.2% expected, 2.1% prior (revised from 1.9%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, April (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, 1.2% prior (revised from 0.9%)
Capacity Utilization, April (09:15): 73.7% actual versus 73.9% expected, 73.1% prior (revised from 73.2%)
Industrial Production, April (09:15): 0.8% actual versus 0.8% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)
Michigan Sentiment, May (09:55): 73.3 actual versus 73.5 expected, 72.2 prior
Business Inventories, March (10:00): 0.4% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.5%)
May 17 - Monday
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, February (09:00): 40.0 expected, 47.1 prior
May 18 - Tuesday
Building Permits, April (08:30): 680K expected, 680K prior
Core PPI, April (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Housing Starts, April (08:30): 656K expected, 626K prior
PPI, April (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.7% prior
May 19 - Wednesday
Core CPI, April (08:30): 0.0% expected, 0.0% prior
CPI, April (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 05/15 (10:30): 1.95M prior
May 20 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 05/15 (08:30): 4600K expected, 4627K prior
Initial Claims, 05/15 (08:30): 440K expected, 444K prior
Leading Indicators, April (10:00): 0.2% expected, 1.4% prior
Philadelphia Fed, May (10:00): 21.3 expected, 20.2 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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