Sunday, March 14, 2010

SP500 Stalls at January High

- Daily theme eases Friday, but it is a difference without distinction
- A little pre-weekend profit taking as SP500 stalls at the January high.
- Dollar, bond trade gets a bit wilder on Friday.
- Retail sales surprise upside while Michigan sentiment sags.
- Market in position to test early in the week, but thus far the buyers keep the upside pressure on.

Investors reap the reward of the rally, bank some gain ahead of the weekend.

It has been another good week of gains that we were able to take to the bank. On Friday, the market did not quite hold the same theme that was prevalent for the week, i.e., starting softer, then moving up and melting higher into the close and producing nice gains for the entire week. On Friday, instead, there was a higher start and you always have to worry about that after having a good move up followed by softness. There was very narrow range trading for most of the day that moved the indices in and out of positive territory as they bounced up and down over the flat line. At the end of the day, there was a modest drift higher into the close, but that only made up for the dip that started mid-afternoon. The indices closed flat. They were mixed depending on which exchange you look at, but there was no relative movement on the session overall. There is a reason for that, and it was something we anticipated: after a good move higher the market wants to lock in gains before a weekend. On the initial burst to the upside, there was profit taking. We were in there as well, taking gains off of the table as the market opened higher. There was good news in the agricultural sector as well as the retail sector; we were able to bank gain on those stocks as the market started higher in general. It was unable to hold the move, however, and it faded into the close. That does not mean the bigger theme was not present on Friday the market is still getting a bid.

Despite being weak on Friday, the sellers were not present. They did show up last week on Tuesday and Wednesday and tried to push a market back, but that was quickly tamped out and the market showed intraday resilience as well. It was generally able to come back and produce gains on the session. That does not mean there will not be a pullback by any means. Looking at the SP500 chart, there has been a strong run. In the past month, the market has moved well with one small consolidation at the end of February. With SP500 at its January peak, along with NASDAQ, SP600, and SP400 well over their January peaks and having broken out through those ranges, you would expect a pullback and test of this strong move higher. The market's move up does not necessarily mean it will continue to move up without a test. Nothing goes up in a straight line, just like nothing typically goes down in a straight line.

The market had every opportunity to sell at the January high. Indeed, that is something we were anticipating given the strength of the correction from January into February. As it approached, it looked like it might be trying to sell. There was the lateral move as it started to stall in early March, but then it gapped higher and ran through the January peak. It overcame bad news throughout this rally. When it looked like it could roll back over and make good on the deeper correction, it did not. It broke through and ran to new rally highs. Instead of dealing from a position of weakness, now NASDAQ, SP600, and the SP400 are dealing from a position of strength. These will be coming back to test the prior high they have already broken versus having bumped up into it and failed. Yes, while SP500 is still below the January peak although it did break through it intraday on Friday the SP500 is not a leading index; it is following the others. I am not worried that the SP500 has not made the break yet. If the other indices show a reasonable test where they come back and tap at or near the breakout point at the January high and move back up, they are likely to drag the SP back up with it. It is not fun having to drag around your brothers, but it can be done. It has been done to this point. With the strength that is shown in the market with the continuing bid (and indeed on NASDAQ with the upside volume that has appeared over the past month), the strong spiked on the upside sessions shows that buyers are there. Thus far, they have been willing to push the market higher and drag the SP500 along with it. Nothing happened Friday that changes the underlying theme, though it did not necessarily follow the same day-to-day script that it had during the week.


Dollar. Looking at the DXY0 chart, it has been consolidating laterally after a nice move higher from January into mid-February, but then things got dicey on Friday. It sold off hard and broke to a new closing and intraday low on the session. It is still in pullback mode. It is not a dangerous break it is still rising above the 50 day EMA which is where it held in January with the first test of the trend break. It is not in any serious trouble right now, but the violence of the selling on Friday was somewhat surprising, particularly since there were stories that the UK would be the next Greece. One would think that would have bucked the dollar up against the pound as well as the Euro, but it did not (1.3758 Euro versus 1.3675 Thursday). The dollar had broken below the 1.36 level on the Euro, and it traded there quite a bit last week and early this week. It then slipped back above 1.36 and did not seem that nefarious, but at the end of the week it jumped higher almost toward the 1.38 top of the range. It fell against other currencies as well. Did weaker sentiment numbers cause this? It is hard to say. Sentiment is so vaporous, and it often does not translate into what consumers actually do. It is hard to say that it was the reason the dollar sold, particularly when retail sales for February came out better than expected. This is something we will have to watch because the dollar is correcting after a good run. That is normal, and it is still in a normal range, so it is not out of hand. It is concerning to see such a significant drop in one session, but it can happen and still recover, no problem. I want to see if it slows down or if the pressure stays on next week.

Oil. Oil had another struggle at the top of its range. It tried to break higher as it did on Wednesday, but it reversed even with a weaker dollar. Oil was unable to make any headway and closing down ($81.24, -0.87). It is at the top of the range, and we are looking to see whether it will fall down. This is not definitive, but it is definitely struggling with the closes off the peak. If it closed up, and then reversed sharply, that would be a clear reversal signal. It is not there yet, but we still have our DUG position ready in the event that oil breaks lower and we can play that drop in the range. This was despite not only the weaker dollar but the EIA raising its forecast for anticipated oil demand for 2010. With the trade balance on Thursday, oil imports were down to 1991 levels (actual number of barrels imported). There is a question as to whether the demand will increase. It is factoring in an economic increase the United States a continuing recovery. While the data suggests that there is a slow recovery continuing, the debate is over how strong it will be.

Gold. Gold had a bit of a weaker day as well ($1,102.22, -6.00). Depending on which market you look at, it has a different close because some close at different times, but the close was 1100. It held near 1100 on the week, and that is considered a support level by many analysts. It is still in a pullback mode and still above support at the 1100 level, so it is not in any real danger. If there was concern about the US economy and other economies, then there would have been some strength in gold. It did not show up on Friday, and the reason the dollar sold might be the correction it has been in up to now.

Bonds. Bonds had another interesting day. All of the markets were trading very strangely. Early in the morning, bonds were selling and the yields were rising up to 3.76%, above a 3.73% close on Thursday. As the session progressed, however, bonds reversed. They rallied back and the yield fell below 3.7% intraday. By the close, however, they sold just a bit and closed at 3.70%. Bonds still held gains on the session, and a move into bonds would suggest worry about the economy. Even though the Fed says it will eventually start raisings rates, there was back and forth all day. Was it the fact that Janet Yellen may be put forth as the Vice Chair on the Federal Reserve (and she is considered a dove by many)? There were many undercurrents today, so it was hard to figure out what was going on. It was not the end of the month, it was not expiration, and yet there was a lot of movement in the other markets. We will have to see how it plays out, but bonds were stronger. Pushing yields lower, they held at the bottom of this range. I am a big believer in the bond market foretelling the future. If bonds continue to strengthen, despite the Fed's jawboning that they will have to raise rates, then there is something they are concerned about. We will just have to see what it is. There was talk back and forth on Capitol Hill about the healthcare bill. It will look like things are going well, and then there is a move back with people still peeling away from voting for the bill. It is an ebb and flow, and maybe some of the market gyration is related to that. Looking at some of the individual stocks and the healthcare plans, they bounce higher one day to sell off the next day. This will be a huge bill, regardless of what side of the fence you are on. It is so expensive and will affect so much of the American economy. In any event, we saw a lot of back and forth in many different markets on Friday and, while that may just be end-of-the-week juggling and position shuffling, there was no reason in the market for them to be so volatile.



Breadth. The internals were blas . Decliners led 1.2:1 on NASDAQ while advancers led 1.3:1 on NYSE. The small caps and mid caps are still helping quite a bit.

Volume. Volume fell considerably, down to less than 2B on NASDAQ and pushing it well below average. It rose slightly on the NYSE. You can take these as good or bad. You could say it had higher volume on a mixed or churn day on the SP500, but volume was still below average. It is bumping up against the prior high and struggling a bit. There were some sellers her, but it was hardly something to be worried about. In short, volume has been better overall. Even on the NYSE, volume was up earlier in the week as the market moved higher. NASDAQ volume was much stronger on the up days during the rally the past week. Price/volume action has improved.


SP500. SP500 did break over the January peak intraday, but was unable to hold the move. It was showing something of a hangman doji, but that is nothing to get worried about at this point. Again, SP500 is not the leading index it is following. It has had a great run. It would be normal for it to pullback and test to 1125 where this late-December bump is at the interim high without coming all the way back to the November-December consolidation level. A normal pullback would put it anywhere between the 10 day EMA and down to 1125 near the 18 day EMA. It may make a run from there. It may double top there are many scenarios that could play out but, on top of those, you overlay the action of the growth indices.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ is considered a growth index, even though it is heavily weighted by some of the behemoths such as MSFT that do not grow that fast. Nonetheless, it had an impressive gap, a breakout, and a rally straight up. It gapped higher on Friday but could not hold the move. It was a bit negative as well, but volume dried up, and there were no real sellers. Some profit taking and a pullback to test this peak would be perfectly normal and healthy. It would give all these stocks a chance to rest, come back to around the 10 day EMA, and then make the next break higher. It sounds too pat and very easy. We will have to see what happens a political storm may hit that changes things (healthcare passing, et cetera.) For now, it has plenty of upside volume, breadth, and plenty of leadership.

SP600. SP600 has a very strong pattern. It is very similar to NASDAQ and even stronger because it was one of the early leaders. It has recovered leadership status, and that is good for the overall market as well as the economy. It is an indicator of economic success (increase or decline). SP600 showed a hammer doji on Friday, but that is no big deal; it has a very strong pattern. Coming back to test would be normal, but the question is how far it will go. If it has to come all the way back down to 345, then that is a significant drop since it closed at roughly 359. As a leader of the market, I would expect it to hold around the 10 day EMA. If it holds there, that would be a tremendously strong move (and something that happened in late February). It tapped it on the low, closing above the 10 day EMA and taking off once more.

SOX. The SOX continues to struggle somewhat. It is still below its January peak and below some interim peaks in December and mid-January. It is struggling but slowing some life. Last week it started to come to life and, with a strong move on Wednesday, could not quite finish it off to end the week. There are some improving patterns in the semiconductors, however. We will see if it is able to make the break and follow the others higher because it is a growth area that I want to see do that.


Financial. The financials were what pushed the SP500 up on the week. GS was the strongest of the group, and it gapped to a doji at prior resistance on Friday. It was an evening star doji, and it could be in for a pullback. If it pulls back, then SP500 will pull back, but it has support at 175, so it may hold there. This is the little pullback in the market we are looking for and that is ripe for. JPM was up as well. It was not nearly as dramatic or spectacular, but just a steady move higher. It did show it had same doji pattern seen on other charts on Friday. WFC led up, but it gapped higher and closed lower on Friday. The regional banks were all the talk. EWBC broke to a new high on Wednesday. It faded at the end of the week, but they have been one of the backbones helping the NYSE indices move higher. They are already testing, so you can take from that that the SP500 and the small caps may test as well.

Technology. Techs had the big names leading the way on the week. AAPL was up on a tremendous run; it gapped higher last week and continued on this week. It gapped higher and actually held the gain on Friday. It is a bit extended, but is in a nice run what can you say? It is a leader. GOOG was down. It gapped higher and rolled over with a modest loss. It has been a great two weeks for GOOG. It is still in good shape and could come back. It has serious support at 575. If it comes back and tests that, it is off to the races and up toward 600 once more.

Energy. Energy was coming back around early in the week, and we put some plays on. UPL bounced off of a support level, and there are a lot of these. They bounce off a support level and rally. It was a little slower at the end of the week, but a good start to the rollback up in the range. HK is similar. It bounced off its support level as well with volume picking up as it rallies. Indeed, it rallied on Friday as it continued and posted a solid price gain.

Medical. Medical stocks were up. Biotech was a big one, and medical appliance was big. HOLX had a good day on Thursday. It was off a bit on Friday, but not bad at all. RMD had a good week (it was a great month altogether). Biotech had a really good week. CELG is moving laterally, but there is a lot of takeover speculation in biotechs. It was pushing a lot of these stocks higher. AWC was not huge on this one, but it had a good week and approached a prior high. Medical, drugs, and biotechs had a good week.

Retail. Retail was strong again. ANN is showing great strength. ARO had more good numbers and gapped higher once more. PNRA is still moving up. BBBY has been lagging, but finally made a breakout on Friday. It had some downgrades before this, but it swallowed and digested them and then broke over this consolidation range from late February and March on good volume. It might prove an interesting play.

Metals. Metals have been lagging. They have downside ABCD patterns, but are trying to recover. STLD gapped higher on Friday, but it stalled at resistance. AKS is pulling back, and maybe it will set a flag and can bounce. FCX is trying to make the break higher and get on track with the rest of the growth industries, but it is struggling. NEM has formed something of a flag or pennant pattern, and maybe it can make the break higher. It may be some precursor to what gold will try to do. Notice how it broke the downtrend, rallied more than gold did, and is now coming back to test as gold did over the past two weeks. If it starts to break higher, we can anticipate gold will break higher as well.

Industrials. Industrials are similar to metals they are just holding on. CMI has been going well, but has stalled out its move for us. JOYG is still moving up but is stalling out below the old high. DE looked like it was in trouble. It stalled out below the old high on low volume, and it is starting to struggle with high-volume selling. The industrials those tied to what they used to call the "old economy" stocks are struggling while the other growth sectors lead. Overall, there is still plenty of solid leadership, and as we saw with some parts of energy this past week, there are stocks that will try to make a run up and become leaders as they bounce off of key sport. Rotation from one sector to another is part of a healthy market. One sector will be hot, such as the metal stocks and the industrials were. They may be tapering off a bit now but, as they did, we can see money flowing into retail and technology or moving back into financials, for that matter, as well as the healthcare stocks. That is a healthy rotation of money in the market. Even though I reported last week that a lot of mutual funds are at almost record lows on their cash levels, there is a lot of money on the sidelines in money market funds that could move their way. If people start selling out of bond funds, then that will bring more money to bear on the stock market. That does not mean it will go up in a straight line and go up forever, but it is an indication that there could be money brought to play if this market keeps moving higher.



VIX: 17.58; -0.48
VXN: 19.14; +0.05
VXO: 17.7; +0.19

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.86; -0.07

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn t have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 44.9%. Continues higher and understandably so as the market continues higher, up from 42.1% and 41.1% prior. Rising from 35.6% and over the 35% threshold level below which suggests bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 23.6%. Bears are not as convinced as bulls, rising even as the market rises, up from 22.7%. Bears have been more skeptical on this move though they are down sharply falling from 27.8%. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market, so still a ways off even though bulls are falling to a bullish level. Continuing the rise from 16%ish on the lows this leg where it held for several weeks. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: -0.8 points (-0.03%) to close at 2367.66
Volume: 1.998B (-4.02%)

Up Volume: 894.106M (-406.956M)
Down Volume: 1.118B (+284.56M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.21 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.33 to 1

New Highs: 217 (+22)
New Lows: 7 (-2)





Stats: -0.25 points (-0.02%) to close at 1149.99
NYSE Volume: 1.049B (+7.48%)

Up Volume: 448.418M (-235.46M)
Down Volume: 588.882M (+320.42M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.31 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.52 to 1

New Highs: 592 (+214)
New Lows: 56 (+17)




Stats: +12.85 points (+0.12%) to close at 10624.69
Volume DJ30: 166M shares Friday versus 150M shares Thursday.


There is a lot of data coming out on the table, including an FOMC rate decision meeting on Tuesday. The Fed will say they will leave rates where they are, but there is always more intrigue as to what the Fed's actually going to say about hiking rates in the future. Treasury Secretary Giethner said on Friday that the last thing the Fed wants to do is follow the lead of other countries such as Japan. As soon as they saw any sign of recovery, they raised interest rates and then squelched off any hope of a strong recovery. The Fed will keep rates low, but it is all about perceptions and the jawboning the Fed does with respect to raising rates in the future. .

There are a lot of reports coming out. There are manufacturing reports, and there will be the important import prices. There is always the housing starts, and then wrapping it up with some inflation numbers and the initial claims. We will have a full schedule of data, but the question is whether it will change the theme very much. Overall, it is a good place for the pullback I have been talking about. The markets have rallied. Friday there was a microcosm of that with a little profit taking ahead of the weekend. With SP500 still at resistance, maybe this is where there will be a pullback. It may be a good spot to test a bit without breaking higher. If it does break higher, that is fine because it will be dealing from a position of strength as well. As long as it does not break to the upside and end up in a nasty reversal. That is one of the things you have to worry about when you get to these levels. There can be a break and a close over that level, and then a big, sharp selloff. It would show is sellers are back on.

You never know exactly what the market will do, yet everyone is very confident about what is happening. Today, there was one person on a financial station saying that the market was setting up for another leg higher even after this run. After a rally of a week straight up, how is it setting up for another leg higher? It may be setting up for another leg higher after it sets up for a test. In any event, it shows you there is a lot of bullish sentiment out there. Whenever the market goes up, there are bulls everywhere. Then the market sells back few days, then there are bears everywhere. Right now, we have to focus on the theme of the market, and that is there is a bid to the market; it has not left. The sellers tested the water on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then they left the pool. Maybe they will show up next week, and we will have to watch. Again, this is a good point for the SP500 to make a test back down to 1125. That gives NASDAQ and the other growth indices a chance to come back and test their breakouts as well. They are primed for a breakout, but should we panic over that? No. We have been taking profits on the way up because stocks have been hitting our initial targets. You run to the certain levels of the 127% Fibonacci extension or other support and resistance levels, you stick by your plan, and you take gains to the bank. There already inevitable pullbacks and we would like to be as with the indices dealing from a position of strength when we do that. Take some profits and then let them run, and you will be surprised at how far these moves can last. Frankly, I did not think this move would last to see NASDAQ and the small cap indices break through the January peak. But they did, and then they kept running after that. We would buy when it was time to buy, and take gain when your target was met according to our plan for that particular play.

We will be dealing from strength. When they come back to test, we can let our stocks make good tests at good support. At the same time, we can look for new positions on our plays, as well as new positions on other stocks that may have gotten away from us. We can use this pullback as a opportunity as well. We will not forget about the downside; there are stocks that are struggling and in trouble. Some of the metals, industrials, and those type of stocks have rallied but have not rallied that well or cleared out to new highs. They could be subject to a pullback, and they might be able to give us some plays. Just because a stock is not going into a major correction does not mean you cannot make money off of it. You can profit to the downside, like when a stock becomes extended. Or, if it is a weak stock that has rallied back to a resistance level, you can play it back down as it falls back and tries to base further. We can take advantage of those moves. You have to be more nimble to do so, but it does not mean you cannot bank 40-50% gain on a put option on those moves. You often only need a three-point move or so to make that kind of money on those stocks, and I would hate to turn that down.

We will be looking for those, and maybe some stocks that are extended, weak, and ready to pull back. We will also look for stocks that have already been pulled back or have been basing during this period and are ready to break higher. Many stocks are extended right now, so the upside is kind of picked over, but we will still find some. Then as the market pulls back (if it does to start to week), we can see what stocks end up in good position for us to buy into after they hold a test. Of course that is all predicated upon the lack of any change in the status quo that knocks the bid out of the market. There are so many political and global issues out there, that we will have to see what the weekend brings. However, based upon what we saw last week, investors were more than ready to buy. Every time they had the opportunity, the bid was there under the market. Have a great weekend.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2367.66
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2453 is the August 2008 peak

2320 to 2326.28 is the January high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
The 10 day EMA at 2325
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 C 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
The 50 day EMA at 2249
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2143 is the October 2009 range low
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2085
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2048 is the early October 2009 closing low
2015 from an early August 2008 peak

S&P 500: Closed at 1149.99
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low

1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
The 10 day EMA at 1135
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak is breaking
The 50 day EMA at 1111
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1045
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The early October 2009 closing low at 1025
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low

Dow: Closed at 10,624.69
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,963 is the July 2008 low

10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 50 day EMA at 10,366
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 9726
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9430 is the early October low
9387 is the mid-October peak

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the Economy section.

March 12 - Friday
Retail Sales, February (08:30): 0.3% actual versus -0.2% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.5%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, February (08:30): 0.8% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.6%)
Michigan Sentiment, March (09:55): 72.5 actual versus 74.0 expected, 73.6 prior
Business Inventories, January (10:00): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, -0.2% prior

March 15 - Monday
Empire Manufacturing, March (08:30): 21.45 expected, 24.91 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, December (09:00): $50.0B expected, $63.3B prior
Capacity Utilization, February (09:15): 72.6% expected, 72.6% prior
Industrial Production, February (09:15): 0.0% expected, 0.9% prior

March 16 - Tuesday
Building Permits, February (08:30): 602K expected, 622K prior
Housing Starts, February (08:30): 570K expected, 591K prior
Import Prices ex-oil, February (08:30): 0.4% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., February (08:30): 0.7% prior
FOMC Rate Decision, March 16 (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

March 17 - Wednesday
Core PPI, February (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
PPI, February (08:30): -0.2% expected, 1.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 03/13 (10:30): 1.43M prior

March 18 - Thursday
Core CPI, February (08:30): 0.1% expected, -0.1% prior
CPI, February (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Initial Claims, 03/13 (08:30): 450K expected, 462K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/6 (08:30): 4500K expected, 4558K prior
Current Account Balance, Q4 (08:30): -$120.0B expected, -$108.0B prior
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Philadelphia Fed, March (10:00): 18.0 expected, 17.6 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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