- Market responds as expected with an afternoon rally on the heels of further selling.
- Jobs data pulls the old switch-a-roo as payrolls fail to post a gain but unemployment falls.
- European PIIGS threaten a 2008-like slump as leverage questions breed fear.
- Friday rebound eases worries, but has to prove it was a character change.
Market sells again but rebounds in the last hour.
The Friday jobs report was somewhat preempted by the PIIGS running through the European Union on Thursday and its deleterious effect upon the stock market. Nonetheless, jobs did have their impact on Friday. The futures were negative beforehand, but bounced positive after the jobs report. There was a dichotomy in the report, and it was not as expected. There were 20K non-farm payroll jobs lost, but the unemployment number fell (9.7% versus 10% the prior month, 10% expected). The latter was able to boost the market higher despite massive revisions in the true number of jobs lost during the recession. That is rearview mirror information, so the market did not pay it much mind. The market opened a bit lower and tried a bounce, but then sold negative. We used that failed bounce to take some downside gain off the table. Then we would sit back and wait for the market to bounce. We were anticipating some short covering and wanted to get in on some other downside positions. We still thought the character of the market had not changed. The market bounced and sold, and it held the same low it held on two prior occasions during the day. It bounced higher, made a lower high, and it bounced and started to roll over after lunch. We took some positions there, but they came back to bite us somewhat as the market rebounded late and gave us the expected short covering to end the week. We did not panic, but we took a few more positions in the stocks that were still good plays to the downside. We did not get into many of the others from the report on Thursday because they sold early and did not rebound enough to make them good plays. We would be playing the edges, and that is more difficult. I thought we should wait and see if they rebounded more next week. There was a big reversal at the end of the day that sent many stocks back up even to positive; it even sent the indices positive by the end of the day. The question is whether this was just a short-covering rally or if there was a reversal. You cannot tell on the first day, particularly since the index patterns are atrocious. We will have to see how the market plays out in the first part of next week. It is important to note that the move itself did not change the downside character of the market.
The main issue facing the market was when the PIIGS started running through Europe on Thursday. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain are all in trouble. They have huge deficits, and the problem is the cost of insuring their debt through credit default swaps. You may remember those from the fall of 2008 everyone had too learn what they were very quickly because their spreads were rapidly widening, and the cost of these insurance policies in some cases went up 1000% overnight. The credit default swap spreads are exploding in Europe. They are getting much wider, and wide equals risk. If a spread is wide on an option, then it is either thinly traded or there is a lot of risk associated with it (or both). This is happening with the credit default swaps in these countries. It is becoming an increasingly expensive proposition for the countries that have been buying the debt of Greece. This is a dangerous time, and the ramifications are huge if Greece goes under. If Greece has to default, that is a serious issue that will ripple across the globe. Even the US 5 year credit default swap spreads widened by 30-40BP on Thursday alone. This is not just a European issue, and you can see that when you look at gold. One would think that gold would be surging during all this uncertainty, but it had a very tough week. It rebounded on Friday from its lows to close positive, but the fact that it is not rising when there is great uncertainty in the world indicates there is a worry of deflation rather than inflation.
Dollar. After a slight pause to start the week, the dollar surged higher Wednesday through Friday. It was fueled by the fear in the rest of the world, and particularly world currencies such as the Euro that dove down versus the dollar. Even the yen was lower against the dollar. Some are saying this was just because of an unwinding of the carry trade that is where you borrow against one currency and invest elsewhere and pocket the difference. With the dollar rising, they say it had to be unwound because it was being used as a carry currency to some extent. That was probably part of what caused the spike higher, but it was also a safe-haven play. One cannot ignore that the EU is in trouble, and it boggles the mind to see some people on TV treat this episode just as they treated the summer of 2008. Things were going down rapidly, but they refused to acknowledge that fact. The Euro had been moving up steadily against the dollar, and it is now being squashed because of the worries in the EU with the PIIGS nations. The dollar is rallying because people want to put their money in a safe currency. Even with all of our debt, we are still considered safe. The question is, if we keep spending as we are now, will we be in the same place Greece is five years down the road? Our credit worthiness could be questioned by the credit-rating mechanisms and, more importantly, the investors around the world. They are the ones with the final say. The dollar enjoyed a solid week, but it was at the expense of other currencies and at the expense of many stocks as well.
Gold. Gold tried to bounce and make a double bottom off the December low, but it was unable to do so. It peaked on Wednesday and then was massively crushed on Thursday. It sold again on Friday. It broke through support, but managed to rebound and close positive ($1,065.38, +.38).
Oil. Oil had another tough week of its own. It did bounce as well, but it was shoved lower. It was unable to recapture all of the losses it felt during the day and closed down ($71.85, 1.29). When it was posting $4.00 losses intraday, then -$1.29 was not a bad session. It also held at the key support from December where it bottomed. It is right at the average of the trading range from August through September. Everything was on the recovery trail at the end of the session. That leads me to question whether it was just short covering (which I believe it was), versus some renewed buying just because it was time to buy. That is possible; maybe the economic data in the US is good enough. We will have to see how that plays out next week.
Bonds. Bonds were up all week, but they were back and forth. At the end of the day on Friday, the 10 year closed at 3.57%. That yield was down from the 3.60% posted on Thursday. Bond were rallying and pushing the yields lower once more. It was not too long ago that bond yields were up at 3.8%, and they are now down at 3.57%. There are worries out there, and the bonds have rallied accordingly.
The internals were hardly impressive. Advancers did move positive on the NASDAQ as it recovered, and it lead the recovery at 1.2:1. That was pale compared to the -6:1 on Thursday, but you have to take into account that it was a reversal session, so they do not swing that quickly. Interestingly, decliners on the NYSE led -1.4:1. That shows that there were still plenty of stocks downside, even though the indices recovered to positive. Narrow rebounds indicate short covering.
Volume moved up on NASDAQ to 2.7B and on the NYSE to 1.5B. You can argue that that is a reversal: the markets came back, rallied off lows, and closed positive on rising gain. There has definitely been a sharp selloff for the past three weeks and a good reversal off a support level. It could be a reversal, and maybe they will move up from here. The momentum could keep things going on Monday or Tuesday. We will see, but again, I view this as something of a short-covering move. The selling is not over yet. There are issues out there bigger than the economic data from the US, and that is a major overhang for the market as it trades over the next few weeks. In other words, investors will have to see what happens with these credit default swaps, what their spreads do, and how the rest of the world reacts to the debts in the EU PIIGS.
SP500. The SP500 reversed off support and did so on volume. This does not tell us whether or not the selling is over. It could be good for a short-term bounce since it held a support point and bounced. There was a significant selloff. It was 1100 down to 1050. 50 points in a couple of days is a lot of selling in a short period of time, and a bounce-back is normal. We could see a bounce back up to 1075 (the prior low from late January). There is other resistance there from the September peak. We will have to see how high it bounces, but I do not feel this changed the character of the move. The bias is still downwards, although the buyers might have put in a statement on Friday.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ showed the same action. There was higher volume (higher than already high volume on the Thursday selling), a selloff down to some support at 2100, and then a reversal to positive. Once again, you had the move back up after a selloff. Will that lead to more upside? It very well could. 2150 is a barrier, but the big barrier is at 2200-2205. NASDAQ will have to show us. If there is a big reversal like that, it could definitely be a sea change in the market. However, looking at the selloffs over the prior three weeks, it was due for a short-covering rally this time around. That is what we got, and now the question is whether a short-covering rally can turn into a full-fledged bull rally (in other words, the longer-term buyers come back in and buy). There has been significant damage done, and there is significant resistance to overcome. It is hard for an index to sell off like this and then find the kind of support it needs to break out and run again. It could be that this reversal leads to a rebound that comes higher than these prior levels. It may slingshot it back up to test the bottom of this range. There are many possibilities, but you also have to look at probabilities. I think this was short covering after a big selloff. We have been putting our money on it finding resistance and continuing down. Unless it proves otherwise, that is what we will continue to do.
SP600. The small caps showed the same action. They came down to an important support level where we figured they would come to. 310 was one of the levels that showed a lot of support. It could fall to 300 as well, but it decided to reverse off that level. It had a nice recovery to positive, and we will see how far it bounces to start the week. It has serious resistance of its own, but we will have so see how it works.
SOX. SOX was never down as much. It was down, but it reversed and was sold off harder than the other indices. It tested close to the bottom of its support range and reversed, basically following the rest of the market.
The indices reversed, they did so on high volume, but the internals were rather weak as far as breadth. There are many patterns that have the same look they did before Thursday. They bounce, but they still have that downside bias to them. If the buyers come back in flush with money and ready to buy, nothing is going to stop them. There has been a lot of technical damage, however, and it has hard for those kinds of moves to hold up. It will probably sell off again and have more downside before this is resolved. That makes sense because that is the way stocks typically act. They shoot up, they have big gains, and then they come back and start selling (and sell a bit harder than before). The downside is a bit stronger than it has been on any of the other moves. When that happens, there is technical damage done and they tend to move laterally and base out before they take back off to the upside. When you have this kind of selloff, "V" or knifepoint turns are not as common.
Technology. It is interesting to note that technology performed better. There is hardly a pattern of strength for AAPL, but it bottomed, bounced, and it bottomed again. It is still holding support at 190. It could very well bounce higher and come back to test the prior peaks. It is not a pattern of strength, but there is a double bottom set, and techs were showing more money flowing their way. GOOG was the same story. It did not break down further as the rest of the market sold off to end the week. It held tight at 525 and is showing some strength. INTC held at this steady and constant support level at 19. MCHP also did not sell off; it held tight at 26. This pattern repeated over and over again.
Industrials. Industrials came back. BUCY was in free fall, breaking below a key level at 50, but it reversed to close above that level and showed a hammer doji. After a selloff, that can mean a break higher, but it can also just be continuation doji. This has not been a huge selloff it has been a one-day event, so it is less likely to be a meaningful rebound. JOYG may be in position for a bounce. It has come down to support at the August peak, and it coincides with the 200 day EMA. It is showing a hammer doji as well. It is at a more significant selloff and may be ready for a bounce. That would be all because this is what you would call a damaged pattern that has to base out. DE did not break down, either. It hit the intraday low, but it reversed to hold the range it has been trading in for just over a week.
Metals. The metals are showing some of the same type of action. FCX has been in the doghouse for a while, but it has made a double bottom at the 200 day EMA as well as other important price points at 65. MTL reversed off this trendline. If it holds, that makes it a good trendline because that would be a third test of it. It is not a pretty pattern, but it looks like it wants to bounce. They do not all look great, but there is enough life in some of these. They are holding support and could put in a bounce to start next week.
Energy. APA sold down to a support level and rebounded off the intraday low. This is a common theme. SLB came down to our target, tapped above the 200 day EMA as well, and reversed. It made us nice gain and bounced. This is not a good pattern, but it is one where it could bounce higher as it trades in this range. We will have to see how much strength there is next week. DO recovered too, and it recovered off a support level. This is damaged goods, however. It could have a knifepoint turn, but the odds are not great for that.
Retail. Retail continues to be one of the stronger areas. ANN had nice same store sales, and it had a nice doji test on the gap. It could be ready to move back up. COH was a downside play. It bounced, but this is not what you would call a strong pattern. BWLD is another stock that, while it was down on the week, it did not really sell off. It is just moving in a range, holding the short term EMAs.
Overall, the indices are still showing a downside bias. There is also leadership that is showing a downside bias, but there are pockets (tech, retail, and some metals) that show they could post a near term rally or bounce off of the selloffs because they held a prior low and are trying to put in small double bottoms.
'Backwards' jobs report leaves pundits puzzled.
The jobs report on Friday was the main news after Thursday rattled the entire world's financial markets with the issues arising out of the EU countries. Non-farm payrolls fell 20K, and that was almost the mirror image of the expected gain. That was not helpful, but the unemployment rate fell to 9.7%, versus the 10% reported prior and expected. An important aspect was that the workweek moved up to 33.3 hours versus 33.2. It has been stagnant for quite some time at that level, and any rise is a positive. Although, that is a very low number of hours worked for the week, and it has to get closer to 36 before it makes a difference. Nonetheless, this market will grasp at anything, and you have to start turning before you can get to good levels.
The non-farm payrolls were down 20K, but that was not the worst of it. Revisions were terrible. December was -150K versus -80K originally reported. November was written up to 64K versus the 4K reported. In October, it was written way down to -224K versus the -127K originally shown. Overall, the revisions were based upon a change in the benchmarks to more accurately reflect what happened during the year. The revisions showed 1.2M additional jobs lost. In other words, since the recession started, there were -8.4M jobs lost versus the -7.2M previously reported. That is fairly staggering. That leaves 14M people unemployed. The tough aspect of this recession is that the unemployed typically stay unemployed for a period of two months. During this recession, the average period of unemployment has been seven months. As the weekly new jobless claims show, they continue to add onto the unemployed payrolls. That is a great burden on the economy and society. The unemployment rate did fall to 9.7%, and that is a positive. This usually means that, as the country comes out of recession, the entrepreneurs cannot find a job so they start their own businesses out of desperation and the inability to find a "normal" job. The interesting thing is that the household survey showed that 541K more people were working in January. That is the largest jump in 5 years. That is a positive because jobs recover ahead of the non-farm payrolls number. That topped the 430K that were unemployed or lost their jobs in the household survey, and that gave the net jump higher to jobs. Further, the job pool fell by around 250K. That always makes the unemployment rate look better simply because people are leaving the workforce. You have a mixed showing. There are actual positives where, in the months before, there were no positives at all. There is improvement in the household survey. Even the disgruntled workers came in at 16.5%, down almost 1 point from the 17.4% in December. There is improvement even on that level.
Temporaries rose 52K. That is four months in a row temporary hiring has improved. That is important because companies typically hire people on a temporary basis before they make permanent offers. On a temporary basis, an employer does not have to provide healthcare and that type of thing. You can hire them, see if they work out, and then make a full time offer. It starts in baby steps, and there were good forward steps taken in January. Without the revisions and adjustments, there is still a 10.6% unemployment rate. That shows where the problem is because many of the other numbers are just numbers games. The actual number of people is what we should be measuring, and that puts it at about 10.6%. That is as the government does it as most people would measure it, it would be around 16%. There are still discouraged workers that have given up, and there is a 50% increase since President Obama took the office. He has the unfortunate position of being the president at the time a recession hit. George Bush had the same issues, and other presidents did as well. There is improvement, but the question is whether it is sustainable. That depends on whether the economic bounce we see is sustainable as well. It would be nice to see some of the stimulus money given back to people to invest in businesses versus trying to prime the pump with credits for hiring employees. It is somewhat heartening to hear that many people on the financial stations and other places are saying a jobs credit will not do anything. It is interesting to note that when George Bush was dealing with his recession, the idea was floated by some to have a credit for hiring people just like we are doing now. The irony is that there were many Democrats who came out against it saying they tried it in the past and it had no impact on net jobs. They were absolutely right; it does not. It is interesting how the focus and logic shifts depending on who is in the White House or who is in charge of Congress.
The VIX surged to a new rally high on Friday as the market sold off early. Remember, the market did sell off through the middle of the day, but then it recovered. As it recovered, of course, the volatility fell. There was a higher low and a huge surge on Thursday. It was running well on Friday before it came back. Once the VIX makes a big move, it can really run. It will hold tight for a long time, but then it breaks the ice and can easily slide higher or lower. Thus, what happened on Friday may not mean much. There is a big gravestone doji, and that could mean it is going to turn down. However, you have to think that it has broken through the ice. It may shoot back up if the market was just subject to short covering on Friday ahead of a weekend and after a big selloff. Although volatility faded back, that does not say to me that there was a major problem with respect to a reversal to the upside in the market.
VIX: 26.11; +0.03
VXN: 25.96; -0.03
VXO: 25.28; -1.25
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.21; +0.15
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 38.9%. The selling took further toll on bulls, dropping them from 40.0%. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls continue to run, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Getting close to the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 22.2%. Surprisingly bears fell for the week, down from 23.3% after a brisk rise up from 16%ish on the lows this leg where it held for several weeks. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +15.69 points (+0.74%) to close at 2141.12
Volume: 2.751B (+0.41%)
Up Volume: 1.907B (+1.61B)
Down Volume: 866.637M (-1.666B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.19 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 6.03 to 1
New Highs: 16 (-4)
New Lows: 52 (-1)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: +3.07 points (+0.29%) to close at 1066.18
NYSE Volume: 1.563B (+5.33%)
Up Volume: 832.375M (+792.031M)
Down Volume: 712.345M (-727.385M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.42 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 7.64 to 1
New Highs: 63 (-15)
New Lows: 89 (+25)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +10.05 points (+0.1%) to close at 10012.23
Volume DJ30: 308m shares Friday versus 304M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
The dollar will play a role in what happens in the stock market. It may not be the leading cause, but it may be a symptom of what is going on. Whether the dollar continues to rise or not could tell what will happen with the rest of the stock market. The dollar is gaining strength because of worries overseas. Maybe that is what it was telling us when it reversed its downtrend and started this rally the rally that is becoming stronger as the world economic picture grows weaker. People move to US currency even though we have unreal amounts of debt. It is just not as unreal as some of the places in Europe and other parts of the world. People are putting their money into US currency, and that is a symptom of what may happen next week. One of the things we need to consider is the reversal on Friday. I consider that short covering while others consider it a reversal signal. We will find out in the first couple of days in the week.
The earnings season is winding down, and there will be more economic data. Retail sales are a big component, but that is out late in the week. There is not a lot in the beginning of the week to drive things, so we will get to see what the market will do. The bias is down right now. We will have to see if liquidity comes back in to stir it back to the upside. Many Fed members, including Bernanke, are going to be speaking next week to Congress with respect to how and when they will remove all of the stimulus. That is something the market has factored in and will be listening to next week. There are still a lot of negatives out there, but it is when everything gets negative that things can turn positive again. I just do not think the selling is over yet. There are still unresolved issues. As long as serious issues remain unresolved and are incalculable (such as how bad the credit default swap will be in the EU), the market views that as uncertainty and does not like to move higher. No one wants to buy in that kind of uncertainty. When things get as bad as they can get, that is typically when the uncertainty is resolved (because it cannot get any worse than it is) and the market rallies. We are not at that stage right now.
We have downside positions we took on Friday and that we have had over the course of the last few weeks. We will keep those on. We will see how the stocks bounce early in the week. We can play upside bounces on stocks that can move well. There are stocks that can race higher if things go well. FCX is capable of doing that. There are other stocks that have sold off but held support and have set up a double bottom pattern. We can make a play off those. As for the others, we will be watching for them to rebound in their downtrends, hit resistance, and set up new downside. We have played others to the upside while they rebound and set up to the downside. Then we take our gains, flip out of the upside, and look at the downside plays. This is a market you have to trade right now because many patterns are broken and have to go through a healing process. There has been a deeper selloff than on any of the prior moves to the upside, so you have to do some work to get your house back in order. Then you can set up another run like the one we see in FCX spanning July through November. We will employ the same theory right now, which is to take what the market gives. That means we play good movers as the market bounces, and as it stalls out, we switch into plays that are set up to fall and can let our current plays fall again. Have a great weekend, and enjoy the Super Bowl.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2141.12
2143 is the October 2009 range low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
The 50 day EMA at 2212
2218 is the August 2005 peak
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2326.28 is the January high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2453 is the August 2008 peak
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2048 is the early October 2009 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2020
2015 from an early August 2008 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 1066.19
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1078 is the October range low
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1101 is the October 2009 high
The 50 day EMA at 1104
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1150 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The early October 2009 closing low at 1025
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The 200 day SMA at 1019
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
Dow: Closed at 10,012.23
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 50 day EMA at 10,314
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 9481
9430 is the early October low
9387 is the mid-October peak
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
February 05 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, January (08:30): -20K actual versus 15K expected, -150K prior (revised from -85K)
Unemployment Rate, January (08:30): 9.7% actual versus 10.0% expected, 10.0% prior
Average Workweek, January (08:30): 33.3 actual versus 33.2 expected, 33.2 prior
Hourly Earnings, January (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Consumer Credit, December (15:00): -$1.7B actual versus -$10.0B expected, -$21.8B prior (revised from -$17.5B)
February 09 - Tuesday
Wholesale Inventories, December (10:00): 0.6% expected, 1.5% prior
February 10 - Wednesday
Trade Balance, December (08:30): -$35.0B expected, -$36.4B prior
Crude Inventories, 2/5 (10:30): 2.32M prior
Treasury Budget, January (14:00): -$60.0B expected, -$91.9B prior
February 11 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 02/06 (08:30)
Continuing Claims, 02/06 (08:30)
Retail Sales, January (08:30): 0.4% expected, -0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, January (08:30): 0.4% expected, -0.2% prior
Business Inventories, December (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
February 12 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, February (09:55): 74.8 expected, 74.4 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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