- GDP bounce a temporary elixir as the market rolls back over
- Dollar rising on speculation of what the FOMC says next week
- 2010 may be rather flat.
- Personal income and spending match expectations. Low expectations.
- Chicago PMI makes its move to positive.
- Michigan sentiment backslides as well.
- Market selling ahead of FOMC decision. Setting up the year end run?
Season change is still hitting the market.
October has a bad reputation in the stock market. While the market enjoyed nice gains to start the month, the action over the last two weeks turned the market negative for the month. Friday was a continuation of that selling, and the selling was intense. There were many reasons thrown around as to why the market was selling off, one being that it is the end of the fiscal year for many mutual funds and they were adjusting their positions and portfolios. There is no doubt that was part of the selling, but there is more to it. There has been a lot of action to the downside showing both volume and percentage losses, and there have been some serious breakdowns in the indices as well as some of the leadership groups. This is not just end-of-the-month shuffling, or end-of-the-year portfolio management. There is actual distribution as investors are getting rid of the stocks that they were buying on the way up.
There has been a lot of news out. There is come into a critical earnings season because in Q2 there were many unexpected earnings beats, but that was due to cost cutting on the bottom line. In Q3, investors were looking for top line growth, and there was some of that. Early on, stocks such as AAPL, INTC, and MSFT were rewarded handsomely for that. There is a decent list of very solid companies that reported top line growth.
It seems like the news cycle culminated on Thursday with the Q3 GDP, which beat expectations and came in at 3.5%. A lot of news was built in to that. There was economic news that was showing backsliding, and then there was the great GDP number, and the market rallied one day in the face of that sharp selling on Wednesday only to reverse on Friday. The market anticipated a lot of this news and rallied ahead of it, but a lot of that is now being taken off the table. There are profits being booked for the end of the year. After they are booked, the question is whether the money will move back in and rally the market to the end of the year.
As the dollar has declined, stocks related to the overseas trade (industrials, energy, commodities) have been moving higher. Over the past week, the dollar has rebounded. Other countries such as the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Australia are raising or beginning to tighten their rates and pull in credit. That has strengthened their currencies. Are we doing that in the US? There is an FOMC policy meeting next week that culminates on Wednesday. Some anticipate that the Fed may start mitigating its language with respect to free and open credit. If that is the case, the dollar could continue to strengthen while stocks continue to fall. If that is the case, there will be issues with the market continuing to move higher, and the market has been pulling back in advance of that. After all this good news, and in anticipation of the Fed getting tougher with its statement, the dollar has rallied and stocks have fallen. That may reverse next Wednesday after the news is out and the market sees that the Fed is going to maintain an easy money policy.
This administration thinks that Japan made a critical mistake in the 1980's and 1990's. They believe that it raised rates too rapidly and its currency doubled in value, which choked off the recovery. That very well could be the case, but those are just two small factors in a much larger picture. One of the other things that the Japanese government did was spend a lot of money on propping up banks that should have fallen. It also spent a lot of money on stimulus packages for infrastructure and the like that did not really stimulate anything. Does that sound familiar? The current administration is worrying about the dollar and interest rates because it thinks those are the primary drivers. They are forgetting about other variables in the equation, however. All too often, administrations cherry pick what they want to trust and believe in (and not just Democrats; the Bush Administration did this as well). They do not look at the entire picture and factor in key variables. They are falling into a trap of thinking that if they devalue our currency and keep credit loose, we will recover.
I saw a cartoon just today that showed the President talking about how we did not want to repeat the same makes that Japan made in the 1980's. There are two men at a bar, and the American guy says, "What did the Japanese do in the 1980's?" The guy sitting next to him was a Japanese businessman, and he said, "Passed a lot of stimulus packages." We are attempting to do the right thing, but we are unfortunately forsaking what we do best, which is growing our economy. We need to encourage entrepreneurs to invest in the United States rather than funding the building of turtle crossings and the kind of things that do not create the jobs we need to lead the world economy in the future.
Friday turned out to be a continuation of the selling. This is leading up to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday which will determine - at least in the mind of the investors right now - which way the US will go with respect to its currency and interest rates. The statement will be something of a Rorschach test; everyone will see what they want to see in it. The bottom line is, with Bernanke doing what the administration wants, there will be easy money and there will be easy credit because they want to keep those home sales going and try to pick auto sales back up. Without the incentives, people are not interested in spending right now.
The intraday action was skewed as either very bearish or very bullish - as it was all week. On Friday, there was a lower open and the market sold lower all session. It tried to bounce along and find support in the last three hours of the day, and it did because it stemmed the decline. It still closed near the session low, however, and that is very bearish action. On Thursday, there was the higher to high that shows bullish action. On a day-to-day basis, it does not mean a lot in the current market. You have to look at the bigger picture. There is tremendous volatility jerking the market back and forth each session and that somewhat renders these intraday swings less meaningful. If there was a reversal, as seen in prior sessions in mid-October, that would be more meaningful.
Looking at a chart of the SP600 makes it easy to understand why the advance/decline line was not very weak once again. Advancers trailed decliners by 4.2:1 on NASDAQ and by -5.6:1 on the NYSE. The small caps are a part of the NYSE, and you can see they made the lower low and are leading the rest of the market to the downside. When the small and mid-caps make the strong move lower, there will be the kind of negative readings in breadth that are happening.
On SP500, there was high-volume on Wednesday, lower volume on the Thursday reflex bounce, and then crushingly heavy volume again on Friday as it tested the trendline and rolled back down on very strong volume. You will see the same thing on the NASDAQ. It came back up and kissed the 50 day EMA, and then rolled back over and sold on strong volume once again. The hallmark of the market the past two weeks has been the high volume on the intraday reversals. That showed that every time the market went up, sellers used it to dump shares, and then the breaks lower on high volume shows that the selling gained momentum. There is higher volume on the downside, which tends to beget more selling.
NASDAQ got a lower low intraday by just a hair. That does not mean a whole lot, but it is making steadier lows and will take out the early October low. That breaks the trend and changes the character of the move. There is similar action on SP500. It was breaking down, although it is still well above the early-October low. Even though it has broken its trend, it can consolidate and move on just as it did in June and July. It is not a terrible development on SP500, but it is not a good thing near term. SP600 actually made that new lower low after breaking its trendline and then not trying to give it a test. It looks like it is coming down to the 290 or perhaps 280 range from the June 2009 peak.
The SOX is in serious trouble as well. It has made a lower low already, and now it is in this range from 285 to just under 310. There is some good support in the 285 range, and I am looking for it to shoot down to that area and fill this gap in July putting it down at 270. That is another 26 points on the SOX which is a significant move on that index. It is very volatile, but it is still a significant move to the downside. There are some lower lows in place, and it is important to note that on the SP600 because those stocks are economic harbingers. If they are selling off, that says they do not think Q4 will be as good as Q3. It says that the Q3 stimulus plans were basically one-off events that did not stimulate any sustained economic activity. That corresponds to what history shows with these rebates and one-off stimulus proposals. This pump-priming in this respect simply does not work.
SP500 has made the break, but where is it going to go? 1,025 is support, and there is going to be an attempt. It may sidestep there because there was a lateral move before it fell. It held there in early October, so it may slow a bit when it gets there, but that is not likely the place where it will find a bottom on this selling. There is a stronger point of resistance at roughly 1,013 and that range of resistance runs down to roughly 980. There is the mid-August bottom and another support range from the same level in late July. That is a good support level and is also a very good pullback for this index. To drive that point home, let us take a look at the daily chart on the SP500 and do some Fibonacci work. The move in this last rally in October is coming back and has given up almost 100% of that move at 1,020. We can look at 1025 as being a level it is going to hit. At the 127% extension, there is good support, and that takes it to 1,000. 161% is at 971. It is a good range from just under 1,000 to 970 where you can see that SP500 will try to come down and likely try to hold the line.
The techs were in some trouble. They are still in trouble, but are not as bad off as the small caps. On NASDAQ, there is a pretty solid support range at the early August consolidation at 2,000. That is a definite possibility. You have to think of support more in a range than a particular point. There is a range that runs from roughly 1,960 up to 2,000, but there is also a spot at 1,930 in August. There are two significant support lines from way back running right through this level. This is the gap point from October 2008, and that will be a significant level. NASDAQ was at 1,930 in mid-August, and the lower part of the gap takes it down to just over 1,900. That is the range you are looking at to fill on this particular bout of selling.
As for the longer-term picture, if you looking at a weekly chart back to 2007, that is where the market peaked before this selloff. There is a trendline from that peak and coming along Q2 of 2008. It is not the greatest trendline, but it is nonetheless the main trendline off of that peak. There was a major breakdown, a bottom, and then there was the 60%+ rally back up. It started to struggle right under where the trendline is going. That is where the market started to struggle, so logically, it is a normal place for it to turn down and test. There was a big move down, a big move up. Now it needs to test, and it could go back down to the levels I spoke of, such as 1013 and all the way down to 975-980.
I will go back further to the 2000 peak. There was the rally back from that selloff and something of the double top within a bigger double top, and there was a trendline that formed on that selling. What happened after the market came up off this big rally? Remember, this was the large rally that is comparable to the one there was here, although this one is larger on SP500. There was stimulus - this was a different kind of stimulus that tends to create longer-lasting effects. Then there was the rally, but in 2004, there was a big goose egg as far as rallying further. The market moved laterally for almost the entire year, but it was ten months out of that year that the stock market moved laterally. We could expect that to happen now with the similar rally.
We have come up to resistance, and will the market shoot back up from here or move laterally? It might be a situation that, after the liquidity runs out at the end of the year, we will have a lateral move. What will be the catalyst to send things higher in 2010? The Obama Administration's White House economic advisors already said that the stimulus is going to run dry at the end of Q1 of 2010. One can expect that there will not be a lot to drive the market forward. They are hoping their stimulus will have primed the pump and will move things higher. That remains to be seen, but I would not be surprised if the market moves laterally for a lot of 2010 after a run to the close of 2009. If you buy and hold, that is tough, but if you are trading in a range, we can play some great stocks that move up and down. I like that actually. I can find stocks that I like that are active and that can really run inside of a solid range up and down. That is a 10-40 point range for stocks such as ICE, CME, BIDU (even though it was hit, it will be back), and they establish nice, steady ranges that we can trade up and down in. We can use the range parameters, support and resistance, and Fibonacci to help us pick the entry and exit points. That is not necessarily a bad thing. I kind of like them myself because I can make a ton of money in those and I can do it in a pretty predictable way.
Financials are an interesting group right now, and one that does not look bad is MS; it had a nice pullback and looks solid. We are playing GS to the downside, and it looks like it has trouble. It is at a support range, but you get the idea that it has rolled over with a being umbrella and is heading lower. JPM is in the same situation and is starting to break down. There are also financial sector stocks that look good, such as ACF. It has a really nice pattern - a cup with handle, a breakout, and a test. In all this market selling, all it did was come back, test, and hold support. It is in excellent position. There are diamonds even in all the charred remains of the market after this last selling.
Energy is okay. It is not in great shape after the selling, but it is hanging in there. That is one of the sectors that can move up when things turn back up. I am looking at APA, APC, and CVX, and you can see that they look solid. That is not the case across the board. CHK has broken lower, but it is trying to hold at some support and may set something up. One that follows oil more closely is CNQ. It has had its dips, too, but it is not out of the picture. As for the industrials, DE, CAT, and ITW all look very solid.
As for the techs, AAPL is down but hardly out. It simply filled the gap and is trying to hold. It IS technology right now, and how it performs at the 50 day EMA will show what technology will do. MSFT is doing well in earnings with Windows 7. It had a gap up, a nice test, and is in a flag pattern. It is not all bad.
Metals are not great. Steel has been in trouble. RS is a steel fabrication company and it is not doing well. AKS is all the way back to its 200 day EMA, but FCX is not in that bad a shape. It looks a lot like the energy companies: down but hardly out.
Retail is also down but not out. COST looks solid, and URBN is still holding its trend higher. Not all are great; JOSB is breaking down. BBY is not bad. BBBY is not in great shape, but not bad. Leadership is still there, but we will see how it holds up as the indices continue to pull back and test. Once they do, we will see how they hold, see what is left standing, and see what we can ride higher to the end of the year on a liquidity run.
Personal income just is not strong enough to propel continuing gains.
It was a week heavy on economic data, and Friday was no exception. There were big reports out that followed the GDP report on Thursday. Personal income and spending for September were out, but they are old data because they are incorporated into the GDP report that was released on Thursday. It was not any news other than it was parsed out and we could take a closer look at what the numbers were. Income was flat as expected. Personal spending fell 0.5% after the Cash for Clunkers went off the books.
Real disposable income fell for the fourth consecutive month. We are losing 0.5M + jobs each week, so incomes are not going to rise. The average hour workweek is not going up because they do not need more employees. If you take out the transfer payments - Social Security and those types of things - then you see that incomes fell 0.3%. They fell 0.3% in August as well, so there is a trend of declining incomes. If you have declining incomes, then there will not be ramped up consumption. We fooled it with the Cash for Clunkers; it got people to buy cars and it jumped things higher, but as seen time and time again, rebates for buying things do not work. Whether you give someone money and tell them to spend it, or give them a credit on a car, it only works temporarily. Car manufacturers are not ordering any more cars even though inventory is down because they do not think people will buy them. The durable goods report showed that. Inventories remain low and there are not many new orders coming in.
Chicago PMI turns 50.
The Chicago PMI came out (54.2 with 49 expected; 46.1 the prior month), and it is one of the key regional production reports. It was the first time over 50 since September of 2008. Chicago is finally coming around, but it has been pushed up by Cash for Clunkers because that is in their district. The outlooks were positive after they see the sales they had, but they are not ordering new cars, so take this with a grain of salt.
Production made a huge move up (63.9 from 47.2), as did Orders (61.4 from 46.3). There is activity going on, but it is not going to be the same without the stimulus that they were experiencing that caused these numbers to rise. While these are forecasts, they are based on what they just did with Cash for Clunkers.
Michigan sentiment somewhat depressed.
Michigan Sentiment came in (70.6 versus 69.4; down from 73.5 in September). Once again, confidence is falling, and these are not that great of numbers for Michigan. Confidence was down in the upper 40's from the conference board, and that is more typical of a recession. These are similar recession numbers for the Michigan report as well.
In summary, there were decent numbers out, but there were also troubling numbers and backsliding in the economy. Durables were fine, but new home sales were terrible. Existing home sales were fine, and the GDP looked good. There were problems with inventory levels and regional manufacturing (other than the Chicago) have been going back. We will see next week if they start coming back up and we will get another look at the national ISM as well. It was doing some backsliding last month and we will see if it picks back up or if this time it will slide below 50 again.
VIX continue its explosion higher. It has now easily cleared the September and early September peaks as volatility, a.k.a. uncertainty and fear, ratchets higher. It is now at the June and July peak levels and its 200 day SMA. Given the explosive move and the index chart patterns that show more potential weakness as well as VIX' propensity to explode and show momentum once it breaks out, it could run to next resistance at 40.
VIX: 30.69; +5.93
VXN: 29.81; +4.41
VXO: 28.89; +5.25
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.21; +0.37
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 48.3. Fell slightly from 49.5%. They are still holding up surprisingly well, indicating that there was indeed excessive belief that the rally would sustain itself. Bulls have held in the 48% to 50% range for several weeks now though that will start changing some now, and that is for the better in terms of a renewed upside move. Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 22.5%. Bears surprisingly show little strength despite the selling, barely moving from 23.1%. Bears have trended slightly lower the past several weeks but are mostly holding the line at this level. Now we expect them to jump, an upside positive. Hit a low of 21.3% on this leg. Rebounding some from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: -52.44 points (-2.5%) to close at 2045.11
Volume: 2.546B (+10.06%)
Up Volume: 216.23M (-1.765B)
Down Volume: 2.397B (+2.078B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 4.18 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.34 to 1
New Highs: 24 (+5)
New Lows: 44 (+5)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: -29.92 points (-2.81%) to close at 1036.19
NYSE Volume: 1.655B (+13.87%)
Up Volume: 80.547M (-1.213B)
Down Volume: 1.573B (+1.423B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 5.63 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.04 to 1
New Highs: 59 (+4)
New Lows: 45 (+9)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
The strongest of the market, the Dow is holding its 50 day EMA that it held on the early October test. A lower high but not in any real danger.
Stats: -249.85 points (-2.51%) to close at 9712.73
Volume DJ30: 327M shares Friday versus 248M shares Thursday. High volume as DJ30 holds the 50 day EMA.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
It was a hell of a week to finish out October, and maybe we can get a run toward the end of the year. That is a possibility. The liquidity is still there, but investors are waiting to see what the FOMC has to say about that liquidity. Once it is clear that the Fed is not going to reduce liquidity any time soon, things may turn back around. The dollar has been rallying because of the uncertainty of what the Fed will do. The Fed is not going the support the dollar and the Obama administration does not want it to support the dollar. It could tick right back down after the oversold rally that happened over the past week that contributed to the stock market pulling back.
That will be one of the keys this week, and the number will come out on Wednesday afternoon. Until that point, the market may continue to slide back. I do expect some bottoming coming ahead. We are looking at SP500 to test back to about 980 on the low. That is a logical area for it to do so, and it is not difficult to see it fall back another 50-60 points into Wednesday and the market start to bottom ahead of the FOMC. As it factored in the better earnings and better economic data moving into those numbers, now it has pulled off on worries that the Fed might tighten credit and thus impact the dollar to the upside. Once that is taken out of stocks, then they can start to move back up; indeed, they may start to move back up at some point ahead of the number on Wednesday.
If the Fed comes out and says it is going to tighten or give some substantive change to its statement that indicates it will start doing that, then all bets are off. The dollar is going to shoot higher and that will damage the stock market. Up to that point, I want to look around and see what is left in the carnage. Some sectors are still hanging on, but it is hard to call them great setups. What is still out there are a bunch of smaller issues that people do not really pay attention to but are quite solid. They could still produce some very good results to the upside for us. That gets a bit iffy if you are playing against the current. It is difficult to get into a lot of downside right now, but there are some setups that I am looking at to play 2-3 days to the downside, to make a quick move while we let our current downside positions run.
The last two weeks, we were taking a lot of positions off the table in anticipation of a heavier downturn. That is what has happened, so we have some cash and can be ready to move into some quick trades to the downside. Then we will be ready and see what happens from there. We can move to where the market heads after the FOMC meeting. If the Fed does what I expect, and it does not change its statement and what it is going to do with rates and the dollar, we can see the dollar slide and industrials, energy, etc. rebound and provide excellent upside opportunity.
That would play perfectly into the idea that there are mutual funds that are going to want to chase performance to the end of the year. Some of them closed out their fiscal year, but what a great way to get a start on the next year. Others have a calendar year, so they will want to catch up with these results as well. This kind of pullback that the market has right now will set up a great opportunity. If the SP500 gets down to 980, that is going to provide those mutual funds (and they have the big money) with a perfect entry point to buy, buy, buy and drive things up toward the end of the year. After that, it could be a different story when we get to 2010 and the economy actually slows down. Until then, it could be a nice run to the end of the year once we get this cycle of worry about the FOMC out of the way.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2045.11
2060 is the August peak
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 2082
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
The 18 day EMA at 2118
2143 is the October range low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2191 is the October 2009 peak
The March up trendline at 2192
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2016 is the early August peak
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
1786 is the November intraday high
1780 is the November 2008 closing peak
The 200 day SM A at 1774
1773 is the May intraday peak
S&P 500: Closed at 1036.19
The August peak at 1040
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 1047
The 18 day EMA at 1066
The March/July up trendline at 1068
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1078 is the October range low
1080 is the September 2009 peak
1101 is the October high
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak
919 is the early December peak is bending
The 200 day SMA at 919
Dow: Closed at 9712.73
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
The 18 day EMA at 9872
9918 is the September 2008 peak
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 9680
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9387 is the mid-October peak
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8626 from December 2002
The 200 day SMA at 8593
8588 is the May high
8581 is the July peak
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
November 02 - Monday
Construction Spending, September (10:00): -0.2% expected, 0.8% prior
ISM Index, October (10:00): 53.0 expected, 52.6 prior
Pending Home Sales, September (10:00): -0.1% expected, 6.4% prior
November 03 - Tuesday
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.9% expected, -0.8% prior
Auto Sales, October (2:00)
Truck Sales, October (2:00)
November 04 - Wednesday
Challenger Job Cuts, October (07:30): -30.2% prior
ADP Employment Report, October (08:15): -190K expected, -254K prior
ISM Services, October (10:00): 51.5 expected, 50.9 prior
Crude Inventories, 10/30 (10:30): 0.78M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, 11/4 (2:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
November 05 - Thursday
Productivity-Preliminary, Q3 (08:30): 6.5% expected, 6.6% prior
Initial Claims, 10/31 (08:30): 520K expected, 530K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/24 (08:30): 5750K expected, 5797K prior
November 06 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (08:30): -175K expected, -263K prior
Unemployment Rate, October (08:30): 9.9% expected, 9.8% prior
Average Workweek, October (08:30): 33.1 expected, 33.0 prior
Hourly Earnings, October (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Wholesale Inventories, September (10:00): -1.0% expected, -1.3% prior
Consumer Credit, September (2:00): -$10.3B expected, -$12.0B prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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