- A modest test on expiration as earnings quickly cool their pace.
- Industrial production, capacity increases jibe with improved manufacturing reports.
- National debt for fiscal year triples 2008, highest percentage of GDP since WWII
- How do you handle seniors angry over Administration & Congress plan to cut benefits and coverage while getting no COLA adjustment on Medicare and Social Security? Buy them off with a $250 payment.
- Market made the new breakout and is now testing. Expecting more liquidity to rush in after a short pullback.
Friday tests after a breakout on the week continued the rally.
This past week the market was pensive ahead of earnings, or more accurately the next round of serious earnings. The prior week saw the compulsories, e.g. Alcoa 'kicking off' earnings season with its results. Alcoa is always first but its importance is closer to last given it has a knack for losing money when it should make money and then make just mediocre gains when it does post some decent (for AA) earnings. In other words it is hardly a reliable indicator of the season. Its announcement is ceremonial with as much impact on the true earnings season as the President bouncing the 'first pitch' into home plate has on the outcome of the game to be played.
The real earnings season started this week with INTC, and before Intel's results Tuesday afternoon the major stock indices traded flat. When INTC kicked expectations in the keester for the second straight quarter and JPM drop-kicked the street, stocks took off Wednesday and broke to a new post-selloff high. Sure there were some decent economic reports along the way; retail sales and regional manufacturing reports were the highlights. 'Tis the season for earnings, and this season is very important as investors want to see top line revenue growth on top of the cost cutting in Q2 that provided surprise earnings beats.
Friday earnings were again paramount despite more economic data (industrial production and capacity) that topped expectations. The results, however, were not as dramatic and not as enthusiastically accepted. Indeed Friday was more similar to a collective yawn. Bank of America (you know, the bank where once of its branches pulled up US flags to honor our soldiers because it could not show favoritism to any flag) showed it is unable to make money even with free money provided gratis the US government and of course us taxpayers. BAC posted a $1B loss as it missed on the bottom line and on revenues as well. Man am I glad we bailed out that dog. IBM beat the street on both ends but it wasn't enough; investors sold it making us quite pleased we sold the rest of our October options for a 200+% gain earlier in the week. GE, the brown noser company with respect to the Administration's green initiatives, missed with its sales results and gapped lower, making a lower high.
The earnings were not nearly good enough to keep the breakout move running, at least not on expiration Friday. Earnings started great with those top line beats, but that dissipated quickly. With the kind of break higher the market enjoyed Wednesday, there were some positions that had to be adjusted on expiration Friday.
In addition, the dollar was stronger, another drag on the upside. It opened much stronger at 1.4860, but by the close it gave up some ground though at 1.4893 it was still ahead of Thursday's 1.4931). Gold bounced back some after it underwent some profit taking following its big run (1053.50, +2.90). Oil was up even as the dollar rose; oil's momentum is somewhat impressive, somewhat concerning (78.57, +0.99). Of course there was also just some plain old profit taking on Friday after another break to a new high on the week. The market was up 8 of 9 sessions through Thursday. A bit of selling on expiration Friday to bank some gain is no new event. We were taking gain all week as well.
INTRADAY. Stocks started lower and sold to session lows in the first hour. That took NASDAQ down to its March/July trendline and filled the Wednesday gap. SP500 did not fill its gap but it did test lower as well. Both and indeed all the indices rebounded into lunch and then really jumped upside into the early afternoon. They tried to add to the recovery in the last hour and looked as if they could make it to positive. They didn't. A late round of selling hit and losses reverted to the 0.7% to 2% levels. Off the lows on the close, however. Yee ha.
INTERNALS. -2:1 breadth. Kind of middle of the road for these days when 4:1 moves are easily hit on the strong days, up or down. Volume was up as it should be on expiration Friday, but it was still below average for NASDAQ and just clipped past average on NYSE. Hardly an impressive expiration and no distribution to speak of.
CHARTS. All gapped lower but after making session lows early they rebounded. SP500 tested back near the September peak and recovered almost half its losses. NASDAQ filled the Wednesday gapped, tapped its March/July uptrend and the 10 day EMA, then recouped almost half its losses as well. Lost and found. Down but no damage. Sure the market could roll over and dive lower from here. It could also finish a little test here and then continue this rather absurd liquidity driven rally. Oh well. It has happened before, e.g. 1999 ahead of Y2K. This time there is even more money circling the globe. NASDAQ rallied over 70% in 6 months. That shows the power of liquidity and that there is still plenty of room to the upside as fund managers chase performance to the year end.
LEADERSHIP. Speaking of leadership, there is plenty. The dollar was on the skids again the past week and though it managed to bounce Friday it did hit a new low on this run. That pushed energy, commodities, metals, industrials, etc., the ROWEARFTO trade (rest of the world's economies are recovering faster than ours), higher. Nicely higher. They gave back a bit Friday, but those losses were minor versus the gains. The other usual suspects were fine as well, e.g. retail and tech. Missing from this picture, despite INTC's earnings, are the chips. After bursting to a new rally high they as quickly reversed. They didn't just test the break higher, they gave it up and fell back into the range. Once again the chips act as if they are ready to roll over. They have feinted this before but then held up as the money returned. It is as if they want to just quit already and go take a nap but the money keeps pushing them higher. When the money runs out it could be ugly. Of course as the Fed told us last week, it is not going to run out, at least in terms of the Fed taking any back. We might run out elsewhere as discussed below.
Fiscal Year Debt hits a record $1.42 trillion.
The fiscal year ending 9-30-09 saw the annual deficit more than triple the $455B, a record in its own right, set in 2008. A new record eclipsed by another record tripling the debt. The national debt now stands at 10% of GDP, the highest since WWII. That is ahead of expectations but nothing compared to what it is going to be. Does Congress think we are playing with Monopoly money? Of course not. It knows it is playing with our money, not theirs. Thus it is the same as monopoly money to them. If you never had to run a business, make a payroll, find customers, etc. you tend not to have a grasp on just what reality is.
Friday Treasury Secretary Geithner professed great concern over US deficits. A lack of confidence that the US will return to fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker economic recovery, higher interest rates, and constrained investment. No kidding. Welcome to the party pal (Bruce Willis in 'Die Hard'). Geithner went on: "That's why deficits matter. That's why deficits in the end can be very damaging to growth. That's why you cannot live with future deficits as large as ours are likely to be."
When asked whether the prior tax cuts should be allowed to expire in 2010 Geithner responded "it does not make sense to raise taxes in a recession . . . getting growth on track led by the private sector is our most important priority."
Sounds great. Sounds as if Geithner may not have a job much longer if he keeps up this tirade of fiscal responsibility and championing free enterprise and capitalism. It is so not the 'Big brother, Big government' our comrades in DC are actively pursuing. Strangely, on Friday Senator Reid seemed to undercut the healthcare plan when he opined the healthcare plan would add another $2T to the deficit. Is he suddenly having an attack of 'fiscal responsibility' that the democrats commandeered as their issue in the last election? The oath of office echoes had not died when the current Administration jettisoned any notion of fiscal responsibility. Turtle crossings keep coming to mind. A bit late for buyer's remorse senator Reid. Well, not too late.
Geithner is right in many respects. If taxes go up the attempt at recovery will unravel. The recent economic improvement is not a great surge of economic activity but a response to an economic shutdown, a re-start aided by trillions of dollars spent in helter skelter fashion. Tax revenues to the government have imploded; too many out of work and business activity is way down. Do you really want to pile more taxes on top of that? 'Yes' if you are driven by ideology versus logic.
That could very well be the case. Friday the Administration claimed it had 'saved or created' 30K jobs with the stimulus. Those are extremely, insanely expensive jobs. As I noted at the time, why not just divide the money up and GIVE it to the people; they would be better off. How can you say you saved 30K jobs when you are losing over 200K per month and new unemployment claims each week are in excess of 500K? It is utter nonsense. Any job saved or created to make a turtle crossing stole funds from a real job in the real economy as those funds were taxed away from the private sector. Ideology versus logic.
No Cost of Living Adjustment for seniors, so why not buy off their anger?
With inflation so low this past year during the measurement period (the inflation rate between the third quarter and the year ago quarter), at least as measured by the CPI, the formulas for Social Security say no cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2010. That marks the first time since 1975 there will be no COLA adjustment. Remember that date.
Why no increase? Because energy prices decreased sharply during that period. Recall that oil prices were at $140/bbl and gasoline was at $4/gallon in some places. Gasoline prices are down 21.6% over the past year following the surge. Once again our dependence upon foreign oil and oil in general adversely impacts our standard of living and will continue to do so.
Of course the reality is prices are not dropping at all. This past week I went through why the CPI is not measuring our true inflation rate thanks to the diving dollar and the general inaccuracy in the way the federal government measures prices. As Jim Rogers often says, you don't need the government to tell you whether prices are rising or not.
The problem with the COLA adjustments, just one of the litany of problems with Social Security, is that it is based on PAST prices. Right now what are energy prices doing as the rest of the world sans the US enjoys a pretty solid recovery? They are rising on anticipated demand. They are also rising, at least for us here in the US, because of our government's weak dollar policy that forces prices higher on any good that is denominated in dollars that is imported to the US.
There is another issue for seniors as Medicare insurance premiums are anticipated to rise 11% in 2010. So, seniors that have Medicare insurance costs deducted from their SS checks will see their checks drop.
It is interesting that this is the first year that there will be no COLA. I am not writing in favor of SS and endless COLA adjustments. I am one of those that views this kind of program as totally outside the enumerated powers of the federal government in our Constitution. It was left for the states to come up with a plan for their people, if they so desired, and thus the control would be at the local level not removed to DC with its balls, international travel, and mega power brokers. But I, as usual, digress.
Low inflation before during prosperous times, but there were still COLA adjustments.
Why is it interesting? Because inflation was very low in the 1980's as well after Reagan and Volcker broke its back, and it was also low in the 1990's. While those periods saw spikes in energy prices on occasion (what era does not have those spikes?) they were also times of great prosperity AND low inflation.
Nonetheless there were COLA adjustments. It seems incongruent to many given the crapola they are fed with respect to economics these days, but inflation is NOT the result of prosperity and a strong economy, it usually follows recession and economic malaise. That is because supply slows down but the government tries to keep demand going by printing dollars. Textbook inflation: more dollars circulating without growth in supply. It creates inflation and continued stagnation as in the 1970's versus the supply side stimulus in the 1980's and 1990's (Clinton's capital gains tax cuts) that increased R&D and new business and created new supply and new technologies that CREATED their OWN demand. That is a lesson forgotten in the current administration. Nonetheless there were COLA adjustments: the inevitability of government trying to spread its control, right?
No COLA? Make one anyway.
Thus it is kind of surprising that ANY administration would try and say 'no COLA adjustments.' Maybe not. Within minutes of the SS Administration making the determination (not the announcement) the Obama administration announced that the government should add another $13B to the deficit and make one-time $250 payments to every senior.
One time when things were going to work the way they were supposed to (at least going to by the government's rules and ignoring the Constitution and reality), i.e. the deepest recession since the Great Depression, the government decides to toss the rulebook out the window.
Was there any doubt, however? This government tossed out the Constitution long ago and this $13B is a gnat on an elephant's butt compared to the $1.42T debt AND the trillions that are to be added to the debt if healthcare passes. Yes, toss out the $900B figure (roughly), the supposed cost of the Baucus bill. Even toss out Harry Reid's $2T figure. They will all be off and off big. It is a no-brainer Big Brother will hand out some candy to the seniors given the lack of COLA adjustment.
A payoff? Hush money?
The thing is, this came out without any uproar over COLA. The announcement followed, indeed even preceded, the SS Administration going public with the COLA plans. Hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but with the senior uproar over healthcare this looks like a bald-faced payoff to try and buy some silence to allow the socialization of our healthcare to pass quietly in the night (or in this case in Congress where debate will be cut off prematurely on the most expensive and important piece of legislation ever passed given its size and its expansion of the federal government).
A lot has been made of the 'death panels' by both sides. Let's face it; that is a distortion. No one, at least the ones in the administration that don't believe in sterilization via drinking water and related loony tune ideas, envisioned death panels. Planning yes.
The problem is the indirect, clandestine nature of the changes and pressure. If you cut benefits as much as planned you are taking benefits from the class that uses the most benefits, i.e. the elderly in the twilight of their lives. Obama has decried the expenditures in the last three years of life as being the most costly. That is, sadly, the fate of human beings. We get old and our systems start failing.
Unfortunately, at least for those spending our money through government programs, humans have a strong will to try and live and make the best of their lives. Thus many never give up. There are too many good things to enjoy and make life worth living those last few years even if you are in some pain: grandkids who love you and crave learning about the their families, the past, and life's secrets from those who know. Sunrises; sunsets; flowers; ocean smells, sounds and vistas. The list is as endless as people are varied.
What about the rights to life and the pursuit of happiness in our Declaration of Independence?
While there are no death panels, at least in the initial legislation, the effect of the cuts is to reduce the services to the elderly at the very time they need them most. That necessarily cuts their life expectancies as surely as if someone held a hearing and decided that, given the ailments versus the costs, that person simply was not a good use of limited funds. I have been there. My brother moved to Australia years ago and was 'treated' in its healthcare system. He was deemed too old to make the expenditures on for treatment of a form of cancer (he was just in his early fifties for crying out loud). When no one younger matched the donated tissue, and after waiting months and months, he finally received the treatment. Too late and the procedures were too antiquated. The disease had spread during the waiting period and the procedures used were too outdated to handle it. The doctors here in Houston said he was totally treatable . . . in the US using our technology that was far advanced over that in Australia's public system.
Our founding documents say that our right to life is inalienable. When the government institutes programs that crowd out the private sectors and end up making vast portions of the population dependent upon it for items such as healthcare and then CHANGES the program in a manner that impacts their ability to live (as outlined above), that is in direct violation of our rights set out in our founding documents. If you are 88 and want a knee replacement because you feel you still have many good years ahead of you, that is exercising your pursuit of happiness. If the government effectively takes over healthcare and denies your request for a new knee because you are deemed too old and not a wise use of funds, that violates your inalienable right to pursue happiness.
This discussion of healthcare is only tangentially addressing these issues. The outrage and anger is there, it is just not getting articulated in these terms. These are, however, the VERY TERMS that they should be addressed in. 95% of the US population believes our founding documents are damn good and should be followed. If the arguments are articulated in this manner many would awaken and demand our Declaration and Constitution be followed. At least you would hope so. Our seniors are screaming loud.
It is of the highest irony that this debate is over limiting unconstitutional programs (Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security). Of course, limiting is them not really the case. What is happening is the most massive expansion of all. Sure there will be some cuts in Medicare and Medicaid but they will be replaced by a behemoth comprehensive healthcare program that will swallow most of our GDP. Thus while many argue to save unconstitutional programs, it is in an effort to prevent the greatest damage to our founding documents of all time.
VIX: 21.43; -0.29
VXN: 22.22; -0.29
VXO: 21.2; -0.1
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.76; +0.07
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 48.9%. Paring back from the 50.6% the prior week. Tough week of selling knocked the bulls back but the bounce will bring them up again. Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 24.4%. Climbing on the market selloff, up from 23.6%. That puts it back up to the level hit three weeks back, still showing sufficient pessimism. Hit a low of 21.3% on this leg. Rebounding some from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: -16.49 points (-0.76%) to close at 2156.8
Volume: 2.174B (+4.32%)
Up Volume: 535.208M (-373.124M)
Down Volume: 1.659B (+453.467M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.14 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.28 to 1
New Highs: 116 (-59)
New Lows: 8 (-3)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ posted an interesting and somewhat instructive move. After gapping higher Wednesday, clearing the September peaks and moving to a new rally high, NASDAQ tested Friday. It reached lower intraday, filled the gap, tapped the 10 day EMA, and rebounded to hold the breakout, all in one session. Not definitive in itself, but even after this run higher it shows some continued willingness to buy a dip, even one after gapping higher. Expiration had some impact of course, and NASDAQ will likely test further, but you have to be impressed with the continued resilience on dips. A new week is always a new challenge, particularly after a gap higher to a new high, so we watch the test as more earnings come out and see if the buyers keep stepping in on dips.
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: -8.88 points (-0.81%) to close at 1087.68
NYSE Volume: 1.386B (+2.11%)
Up Volume: 334.478M (-358.762M)
Down Volume: 1.041B (+417.427M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.91 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.04 to 1
New Highs: 251 (-303)
New Lows: 36 (-25)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: -67.03 points (-0.67%) to close at 9995.91
Volume DJ30: 307M shares versus 252M shares Thursday. Expiration Friday saw a spike in volume as you would anticipate. Nothing major here.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
The liquidity rally was again in force last week as the indices gapped to new rally highs. Friday there was some hesitation on so-so earnings, rather normal after a new strong surge, particularly after putting in just over a week's rally ahead of the gap to the new high. This coming week could see some more testing as more earnings releases hit the market. Earnings season is still very young and while there were initial successes the end of week results were not as ebullient.
So we see how much testing the market shows. Wouldn't complain about that as it would set up some new plays as they come back to test last week's new breakouts. Thus far the liquidity keeps hitting the market similar to 1999, and with the year end run to make the books look as good as possible for those funds that were caught with their pants at their ankles when the market took off, there is impetus to keep the market moving higher off each dip.
Of course if earnings disappoint horribly then there is likely a sharper near term pullback though again, with the liquidity and the desire to chase performance that would only make the year end run more violent when it occurs. Thus on a steeper pullback we are going to be all over strong stocks that can run like the wind as they get into buy position on a pullback.
We are going to let our current positions run as much as they will in any kind of continued rally. Some came under pressure Friday as expiration shuffling washed through the market and some earnings apprehension hit. Earnings are always a tough decision: do you hold or close them out ahead of time? With the rebound from nothing to restarting the economy, this season is still a good one to err on the side of letting them ride though of course all will not work out with roses.
This is all part of the liquidity rally and ultimately it is a race against time unless the policies out of DC appreciably change. The markets can rally as long as there is excess capital being pushed into them. With interest rates at 0% and inflation out in the future, everyone is putting money into financial markets, thus fueling the appearance of a recovery. At some point the liquidity has to be removed and the hope is that 'natural' forces will take over when it is or will already be running so when the liquidity leaves there are no hiccups.
Problem is, even when things appear to be smooth, when you remove massive amounts of liquidity things can seize up. Just look at 1999 into 2000. Things appeared to be running smoothly to most of the world but they were not. There were many signs of trouble we chronicled at the time, but it was the Fed flooding the world with liquidity ahead of Y2K, even as it raised interest rates to supposedly fight inflation, that kept things humming along. . . until the Fed pulled the plug on the money and the supposedly healthy economy that the Fed felt it had to raise rates to beat back some to prevent inflation turned over and dove lower.
This recovery, as I have discussed in the past few weeks, is a re-start after a shutdown. Thus it has the look of being a full-fledged recovery given the improvement rates in the data. You go to zero and you should get some impressive improvement rates on a recovery. In reality, however, these recovery rates are not that great compared to past recoveries. The reason in our book is the type of stimulus used, the type of government spending expansions planned (and thus the increase in taxes that the entire business world anticipates), and the new Administration's complete lack of concern and in some cases open disdain for the rule of law and contract that always made the US a beacon for investment dollars from across the globe.
The auto bailouts, bank bailouts, dollar gutting, and attacks on all institutions of capitalism in the US has quelled foreign appetite for US risk. That is why you see countries actively working on alternatives to the dollar to conduct their business. With the Administration signing international agreements putting US sovereignty over our economy in the hands of the rest of the world it is no wonder they are now looking elsewhere. The US was a good investment when the US did what it did best: capitalism. As it turns from those roots it is not going to be a strong economically. Money looks to go elsewhere. Basic economics, but those basic economics mean that for the first time in modern times our children and grandchildren may not enjoy an improving standard of living. Thus this rally, without a real change in our course (a change from the 'change' promised in the last election) will end when the money is pulled. That is why the market bucked when the Fed even mentioned that someday it would have to pull the plug. When that inevitability approaches the market will suffer.
So this move is on borrowed time for now, but that does not mean it is already dead. The year end can make us a lot of money and if the liquidity remains, then Q1 can still produce great upside as well. It is after that, i.e. when the summer starts to roll around that things could get bleak.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2156.80
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
The March up trendline at 2145
The 18 day EMA at 2124
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 2064
2060 is the August peak
2016 is the early August peak
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
1786 is the November intraday high
1780 is the November 2008 closing peak
1773 is the May intraday peak
1770 is the mid-October interim peak
The 200 day SM A at 1760
S&P 500: Closed at 1087.68
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
1080 is the September 2009 peak
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
The 18 day EMA at 1066
The March/July up trendline at 1047
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The 50 day EMA at 1036
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak
919 is the early December peak is bending
The 200 day SMA at 910
Dow: Closed at 9995.91
10,365 is the late September low
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
The 18 day EMA at 9810
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
The 50 day EMA at 9561
9387 is the mid-October peak
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8626 from December 2002
8588 is the May high
8581 is the July peak
The 200 day SMA at 8529
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 16 - Friday
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, August (09:00): $28.6B actual versus $30.0B expected, $15.3B prior
Capacity Utilization, September (09:15): 70.5% actual versus 69.8% expected, 69.9% prior (revised from 69.6%)
Industrial Production, September (09:15): 0.7% actual versus 0.2% expected, 1.2% prior (revised from 0.8%)
Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary, October (09:55): 69.4 actual versus 73.3 expected, 73.5 prior
October 20 - Tuesday
Building Permits, September (08:30): 590K expected, 579K prior
Housing Starts, September (08:30): 610K expected, 598K prior
PPI, September (08:30): 0.0% expected, 1.7% prior
Core PPI, September (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
October 21 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 10/16 (10:30): 0.33M prior
October 22 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/17 (08:30): 517K expected, 514K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/10 (08:30): 5990K expected, 5992K prior
Leading Indicators, September (10:00): 0.9% expected, 0.6% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, AUG (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
October 23 - Friday
Existing Home Sales, September (10:00): 5.35M expected, 5.10M prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2009 | All Rights Reserved