Economy Gets Back to Work

SUMMARY:
- Big volume but no volatility on expiration Friday.
- Dollar bounces modestly and the rest of the market rests.
- Good week of economic data as economy continues to get back to work. How much work is the question.
- Near term story: Liquidity versus long run and resistance.
- Plenty of strong stocks already pulling back and setting up: healthy market but still need patience.

Sleepy expiration as market sizes up the run and resistance.

Sometimes you see fireworks on expiration Friday, but that certainly was not the case Friday even though it was the quadruple type where options, futures, and just about everything expire. Stocks simply didn't do much, but even then they still drifted higher overall. Great volume as well but none of that volatility often associated with expiration. It was a quiet, listless, sluggish, boring day. Pick your adjective to describe it, and that was pretty much it. The market is up 9 out of 12 sessions so you can understand why there would be some sluggishness. The question is whether the sluggishness will continue and turn into a pullback or correction, or if the market will just pause to catch its breath and resume the move driven by all the money circling the world and looking for a place to roost. Frankly, a lot of it (if not most of it) is roosting in financial markets here and elsewhere.

The analysts were somewhat busy. Upgrades to PG, the homebuilders, SNDK and others were somewhat of a surprise for a Friday, but the analysts, as with many fund managers, are playing catch-up to the rally. Barclays, one of the big financial houses, raised its estimates on Q1 2010 GDP to 5%. That is above trend, and maybe they are banking on a traditional recovery - tough call. There can be good growth in individual quarters even when malaise sets in, but strong growth is pretty difficult to come by. I usually do not correlate growth and inflation, but the problem our Fed and government is creating is an attempt at heavy demand and little supply with a very liberal helping of money. Demand will eventually ramp up without, and if supply doesn't find its own way to keep up you have excess demand. With all that extra money pumped into the system (even though the Fed and Treasury deny it), the roots of very serious inflation grow. The CPI and the PPI didn't show any inflation this past week, but that is near term and in the rearview mirror. The problem is 2 to 3 years out. That is why you see gold building higher now as asset prices take account of events well ahead of time.

PALM announced earnings, losing less than anticipated but sporting lousy guidance for the current quarter even though guidance for the year was increased. PALM has a new product that is supposed to be the end- all PDA yet it cannot ramp current earnings. Curious at least. The Federal Housing Administration didn't help the morning action as it announced its cash reserves are falling below the required 2%. Of course it is strapped as it deals with delinquencies as it backs the mortgages that the federal government authorizes and stands behind. FHA is strained given the high number of delinquencies and foreclosures.

All of this was summed up, chewed up, opined and thought upon by the investors, and the market opened a bit higher. Very similar action to the rest of the week sans Thursday. Higher open, quick fade, then a recovery and steady build higher into the close. The gains were hardly substantial with a 0.3% gain being solid though SOX did hang a 1.6% gain on the board. Stocks tailed off at the close, taking a bit of luster off the final tally. A snoozer of a day, and a lot of what we did was snooze. We took some gain, but overall did little. That was pretty much the plan as noted Thursday. It is simply not time just yet as NASDAQ and SOX hit some resistance and we need to see how the other indices react. We will get a wider range of opportunities a bit further down the road


Other Markets

The dollar rebounded after getting slaughtered earlier in the week (1.4697 versus 1.4730 Thursday). Even with that modest improvement oil was lower ($71.75, -$0.72). Gold tarnished just a bit ($1,008.30, -$5.20). All commodities pulled back, and indeed the main leadership groups for the week, i.e. those that rallied as the dollar sold, paused at the end of the week as the dollar bounced in relief. Nothing abnormal about that. As any asset class gets thrashed, it tends to bounce back and to catch its breath. That is what we saw on Friday with the dollar, and the sectors that feed off of the dollar's movement moved inversely to it.

Bond yields bounced back after Thursday's bond rally knocked the 10 year down to 3.39% (closed at 3.47% Friday). That continues that somewhat strange dichotomy I noted earlier in the week and last week about bonds rallying as stocks rally. That is not the typical case, and it leaves you to surmise that something else is going on. Inflation, perhaps commercial real estate issues, or maybe something no one sees. Bonds tend to reflect problems before the cause shows itself. We will find out eventually - we always do.

TECHNICAL

INTERNALS.

Friday was a throwaway day with respect to internals. Huge quadruple expiration volume. Big spikes on NYSE and NASDAQ. NYSE showed its largest spike since late June. NASDAQ showed the same. Large volume Friday, but really volume was strong all week and indeed all during this last rally let. This has not been wallflower-type volume. Strong, above-average trade as buyers flock in and chase performance. That makes things interesting, especially given the time of year. You are going to see a bunch of fund managers forced to spend more with year-end approaching as they account for what they have done with client money. There is a lot of catch-up buying taking place, helping drive the market. That is why we are seeing the moves to the upside and the big volume, but as for Friday, it did not really mean a whole lot because this was the quintessential example of what expiration volume looks like. Of course, even with fund managers chasing performance you can still get pullbacks and corrections; nothing goes straight up.

CHARTS.

NASDAQ is at a resistance range from the mid-September closing low on up to the July closing level (2099-2100, on up to 2155-2169). It is a large, rather strong range of resistance. NASDAQ has thus far shown no inclination to turn tail and sell as it has rallied into the range and is now pausing. Often an index breaks into a range, tests the bottom of the range (here at 2100) and then moves further into the resistance range. Thus NASDAQ can still make headway even though it has hit the initial levels of resistance. That is not just an automatic brick wall that slams into and reverses. Sometimes that is true, but usually it rallies into the resistance and then starts to struggle as it tries to work through it.

SOX is hitting resistance as well, and this looks to be more of the brick wall type because it has hit the level and stalled, unable to crack into it. Why? This is serious stuff with the Q1 2008 trading range low, the July 2008 low, and then the September recovery attempt failed there: a long range of consolidation, a subsequent bottom over the level, and then when it was broken in the heavy bear market selling, it failed a rebound at that level. This is a significant resistance range that the semiconductors are dealing with.

SP500 that still has room to run to the upside. It can do some open-field running because it does not have any resistance up to 1106. I know I have talked about the before but it is worth repeating. 1106 up to 1150-1160, which was the mid-September closing level. That is a range of resistance as well that could start putting the brakes on SP500 when it starts moving toward that level. Will SP500 get there, however, before NASDAQ exerts any influence?

Thursday I discussed the rally in terms of the 200 day SMA. A significant move leaving the indices 20% or better above their 200 day MA. When they get to that level, they start to stumble, maybe start to fall. At a minimum they have more trouble moving forward. As I just said about resistance in general, however, this is not a brick wall either. They start to have problems, maybe shorter runs, more frequent pullbacks basically just not as strong as the prior runs. Makes sense, right?

There are two forces fighting at this juncture. Can the momentum generated by the liquidity continue to push stocks higher or will resistance and the size of the rally start to take its toll? You have the money chasing performance, but can it overcome the drag on the indices when they are 20% for SP500, 26% for NASDAQ, and 31% for the SOX above the 200 day EMA? As seen in May and June, liquidity cannot solve all problems all of the time. The market made its initial run off the lows. Big strong run, but it was tired and needed to take a breather. Of course when it did consolidate the market never gave up the gains, instead forming a consolidation range before breaking higher again.

Compare: you have the run from March into May, the May to early July consolidation, and then the July to September run. The initial run to the first peak was 39% for SP500. This last run 24%. A significant enough difference, but it has taken an extra 2 weeks to generate these gains than that initial move. That is normal: the initial run is usually the strongest. In any event that first rally consolidated for 6 to 7 weeks after that initial run. Now the indices put in more time on this move and they are substantially above their 200 day EMAs with NASDAQ and the SOX bumping into resistance. It makes a little bit of sense they might try to take another pause at some point in the near future. Strong liquidity keeps driving the market, but it just cannot defeat the force of gravity, so to speak, when the indices get so far ahead of the curve. Of course the question is always 'when?' It is prudent to watch a bit here. This could be a potential inflection point. I feel we still get more upside out of this before it corrects more substantially, but it won't be another 20%. You have to ask yourself how much money you are willing to put into play in addition to what is already on the table. With the nice setups out there the market could rally on for continue for a couple more weeks. I hate to leave money on the table, i.e. not making plays when they are there, but some caution when we move in is SOP as is looking for good risk/reward positions when we do.

LEADERSHIP.

Everything that moved up this past week as the dollar sold took a pause on Thursday and Friday. Industrials (TEX), steel (AKS, RS), etc., there was a pause. They are not getting tossed back on their cans necessarily, but they are taking a breather now. That is perfectly understandable after the nice runs gratis the dollar's slaughter. Whether it was industrials, commodities, or large cap tech, you are seeing kind of a stall here. Is it going to be the pause that refreshes and just continues on, or are they going to come back? As noted above, the answer is 'yes' and 'no.' In answering that question, let us look at some of the stocks that have moved up are already doing right now.

BRCM has a cool pullback, tight consolidation. Nice breaks higher on rising volume and a pullback on lower trade. BRCM looks pretty doggone good as long as the market has more upside strength overall. What if AKS broke out of this neat little triangle right here? You see it broke out of the prior triangle and will come back and test. If it comes down to 22 and holds that, then we have another great buy point. BHP in industrial metals broke out of an uptrending triangle and is coming back to test as well. Good volume on the upside. Low volume on the downside and thus not many sellers. Love to see that. The list goes on. TITN gapped up over some resistance and has come back to test it and backfill. It is in great shape. TIE is another industrial metal stock with a nice rally, a pullback for another day or two and you have a nice little cup with handle - or a flag pattern if you want to look at it more short term. Setups are not just limited to the metals and commodities. Semiconductors are setting up. A neat little breakout and test from ARMH and a similar pattern with FORM as it also broke out and is making an orderly test. CEDC (eastern Europe spirits distribution) is in a neat ascending triangle pattern as well.

You can see there are great pullbacks already in progress. That is the result of money coming to the market and rotating: it gives great entry points on stocks that pullback while others have rallied ahead. We keep seeing places to put our money. The lure of that is that you keep seeing those setups right until there is trouble. That market can start to struggle overall but you can still see these setups right up until it corrects. The market can go one bridge too far and suck in money right up to the end before it reverses. That is why you will often see a good break higher, but it is a late-stage break, and it reverses and sells off sharply. You know a rally gets long in the tooth and you keep asking yourself, how much more money you want to put in as the rally moves forward.

You can answer that by keeping position size relatively even, i.e. not loading and skewing your trading account or your larger portfolios with one or two overloaded positions. For example with AKS I can have three plays running but I treat them all separately. Some people say that is foolish because it is all the same stock, but if you treat them as separate plays and have different parameters on each one (and you should as you move in at different times) you have your risk defined and know how to react. You have to be able to divorce yourself from the emotion of the situation. Just because it has made you money in the past does not mean it will make you money in the future and vice versa. It is not the stock, it is what it is doing. It is what its chart is telling you along with its fundamentals and earnings. You combine all those and you get good entry points even if it is one stock. You keep a level head with respect to what you are doing and still never overly load the boat with one stock to where it accounts for 20% or more of your portfolio. That allows you to come in maybe later in a rally and still make some money. At worst, it allows you not to minimize any losses because you are moving in at good risk/reward points, right? If the play goes against you, you are out. If it continues higher, you make some great money.

Finally, not all is perfect in the market. Some key names are struggling. GLW is getting kind of toppy here and we have been talking about QCOM as it continues to struggle. Of course it has not broken down either; it has come to a support level here at 44, so even though some stocks that sagging and look kind of heavy, they are not necessarily crumbling.

After all there is a pretty decent technical picture in place. The indices are still in up trends and even though they are extended, nothing has been able to turn them back. They are at somewhat of an inflection point right now with NASDAQ and SOX at resistance, and it will show us what it has left in the take with respect to this rally. Serious resistance, the indices well above their 200 day EMAs, and a rally that has pretty much matched the length of the prior March to May run. With that in mind, a little caution and patience goes a long way as we wait for the plays to develop and come to us. We have positions on many great stocks, and if the market goes against us and starts heading back down, we can let the market take us out and will still have a lot of gain in the positions we have left and can look to play the other side.

THE ECONOMY

Solid week of data shows the business of getting back to business continues.

This past week saw the economy show improving data. Once more, there was bit by bit positive numbers coming out. The stock market started to rally in March because it anticipated improving economics. After the economy shut down to virtually no business given the financial system crash, no one could get any money to do anything. We were lucky the ATM measures still worked. Now that things are flowing again and the Fed has pumped trillions of dollars into the system along with the central banks from around the world, things are actually loosing up and moving. People have to live, and so that is necessarily going to throw off a certain amount of economic activity and therefore we are seeing the improvement. That is great; I have no problem with that. The concern is how strong it is going to be? We saw the Philly Fed show its second month of positive numbers. The New York PMI showed the same thing on Monday with another month of positive numbers. There is some real traction in the manufacturing sector. That was bolstered by our import/export data that shows we are importing a lot of not only consumer goods, but industrial goods and the capital goods that we use to conduct business.

That is a positive. These facts are dovetailing with each other and showing that there really is some improvement - it is not just one outlying number somewhere showing improvement as it was earlier in the year. Retail sales were up 1.1%. That is not as strong as the prior month, but still another month of gains. What did we see in the import data? There were a lot of consumer goods imported as well, even with a weak dollar. It makes you hurt almost to look at anything made overseas, but nonetheless, we were buying a lot of imports. There is pent up demand and we are spending money, so that is not bad at all. We continue to see sentiment improve; it is still at pathetic levels, but is moving in the right direction. You have to crawl before you walk and walk before you run, and it seems that we are getting to that point. Industrial production and capacity went up.

What I am getting at is that we are seeing a recovery. This is something that happens even in periods were it looks like you will have long-term malaise. The question is what is coming down the road? I talked earlier about the commercial real estate market and that is really a fear among many in the financial area - frankly, in the government as well. They are not talking about it because the last thing we need is to talk about this other pit that we are going the stumble across as we move down the road. The hope is that the Fed and Treasury will be able to liquefy the economy enough not the get into that trouble and to maybe create enough demand and it will snowball to where we actually get things going. Even if there is inflation, they do not care. I tell you right now - they do not care about inflation because inflation is something they feel they can kick down the road. Inflation is not something that is going to happen tomorrow or the next day or in the next six months. It will be 6 months to a year or two out, so they are not that worried about it. That is what concerns me. They are just trying to liquefy everything to get out of this mess now and will worry about the other troubles later. That is acceptable to some people, but if you look at history and how things work, it is avoidable. The problem is that we have loggerheads - we always do.

There is politics and then there is what needs to be done. There is the Constitution and then there is ideology. There are loggerheads oftentimes. While I love to see things done constitutionally where we free people up and give them back more of their money and let them make their decisions, that is not the situation we are in right now. The administration does not believe in that. It is a different ideology and we have to deal with it.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 23.92; +0.27
VXN: 24.69; +0.43
VXO: 23.56; -0.21

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; +0.07

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 47.9%. While the market moved higher the past two weeks bullish sentiment fell. It hit 50.6% three weeks back but some worry is creeping in. Success breeds doubters, eh? Still well over the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. It does not mean things are necessarily bearish; that takes a reading in the 60% range. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.

Bears: 24.4%. Bears continue to bounce higher on that same skepticism impacting the bullish figures, but the bounce is slowing (24.1% 2 weeks back). Hit a low of 21.3% on this leg. Rebounding some from the big drop 31.1% and 35.6%. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +6.11 points (+0.29%) to close at 2132.86
Volume: 2.915B (+14.52%)

Up Volume: 1.826B (+905.657M)
Down Volume: 1.186B (-517.266M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.1 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.02 to 1

New Highs: 115 (-38)
New Lows: 5 (-3)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +2.81 points (+0.26%) to close at 1068.3
NYSE Volume: 2.1B (+38.83%)

Up Volume: 1.117B (+547.488M)
Down Volume: 1.135B (+202.069M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.36 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.3 to 1

New Highs: 247 (-119)
New Lows: 39 (-50)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +36.28 points (+0.37%) to close at 9820.2
Volume DJ30: 424M shares Friday versus 225M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

Do we worry, gnash our teeth and wring our hands about what will happen in the future? We can, and sometimes I do that. I have been known to get a little sackcloth and ashes on at times and then go out and howl at the moon as well, but it does not do me a lot of good. I want to make money. So I will do what I need to in order to do that. I look ahead at what is happening now, not what is going to happen a year or two or three from now because that is not going to make me money today, at least most of the time. In some cases it will, like the GLD, but not most of the time and thus it is a low percentage worry with respect to my trading accounts.

For now, the market is hitting up against resistance but there are a lot of stocks in great position to buy. Do we run out and buy them right now? No, this should not be a general grab bag of buying. Be a little patient and see what happens after expiration. Let us see what happens with NASDAQ and SOX up against this resistance. SP500 can run a few more days and start bumping up against 1106, and then maybe it stalls out as well. Then we get something of a correction. Remember the two runs - the one from March to May and the one from July to mid-September may not be identical twins but their look, trajectory, and ground covered are worth noting. Markets tend to do the same thing over and over again. Legs tend to be similar in length with the longest, strongest ones usually the first couple of legs. There is a case to be made that we see some sort of correction after we get another move upside by SP500.

With all of the money chasing performance into the end of the year, we could get a really nice rally after correction, pullback, consolidation whatever you want to call it. With September being something of a lamb this year it would almost be poetic if the market sold in October and then put in some kind of bottom for a new run. Everyone has thumbed their nose at the idea that September is a tough month. It has not been tough on anyone but the bears, so maybe we finally get a correction and come back. Is that a big worry? It will seem that way; always does. Combat it by using good stops- we have a lot of gain built in a lot of positions, we will let the market take us out of those if it does, using those stops. On our other positions entered recently, we have good risk/reward positions so we can exercise our stops and not get hurt. Over the next few weeks it is a matter of being patient and trying not to get too excited about the setups we see with pullbacks right now and pullbacks that will be forming.

Of course, if you get a great entry point, then you have to put your money to work. That is how you make money investing or trading, you have to put that money to work when an opportunity is there. Despite what you see on TV, despite what all of the pundits tell you, and despite what I tell you and what I think I know, the market does what the market does. When it shows you setups that you like to play, you play them. Then if it does not go your way, you shut it down. If it goes your way, you let it run as long as it will, e.g. AAPL, BIDU, AKS, RS, ESRX - you let them run and make big money for you. So, if we see the setups, we know there is money out there. We just do not know how long it will be able to trump the need to pullback.

Everything tells us we need to be careful moving ahead because we are entering a range that historically shows the market struggles a bit. Counterbalancing that is all of the money wanting to get into financial markets and chase performance and basically get put to work for the year end run given the banks are not lending and no one is borrowing. We have those two competing forces fighting near term and it could get bumpy. We will still just try and take what the market gives. If we see a set up, we will take it, but do not get too concentrated in one particular play, i.e. don't put too much of your account into one play. I might have three or four plays on one stock, but as noted above, I treat them as separate plays because I have different entry and exit points for each one. I have different parameters for them because they are separate plays to me. I am risking a certain amount of capital on each one. That does not mean if I get a gap down I don't get hurt, but if bad news hits the market most stocks will go down as well. That is a market risk. Still, that does not mean you overly concentrate and stack 30% of your portfolio into one play. We may have a lot of money in several plays on the same security, but not all money riding at once on one buy or sell point.

The key is finding great plays, great ENTRY points in those plays, and then managing your money. They are all important but they build one upon the other: managing a position depends upon good entry points. Managing a position, however, is difficult of you put all of your money into one play: it makes it hard to keep the emotion out of the play. If I know I can lose on a trade and it won't hurt me then I don't sweat just killing it if it does not go my way while I let the other plays that are going my direction continue to run. Do I like it when a play goes against me? Of course not. Do I let it ruin my trading mindset or prevent me from moving into other plays that fit my parameters? No way. If traded that way then the impact of a losing trade would be magnified: not just the loss itself but the ripple effect on my other trades that I manage or just not making a trade because of emotion. Not good. It is very empowering to have a system that allows you to now worry about any one trade.

Have a wonderful weekend. The weather is getting nicer, and everyone is enjoying football season and just being outside. Despite all of the troubles we have, it is a great place to live and a great time to be alive. Let us think about that a bit and enjoy some of the money we have made for ourselves and don't forget others that may need some help. Have a great weekend and I will see you on Monday to make some more money.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2132.86
Resistance:
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)

Support:
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
The 18 day EMA at 2062
2060 is the August peak
The March up trendline at 2020
2016 is the early August peak
The 50 day EMA at 1985
1984 from late September
1962 is the bottom of the August 2009 range.
1947 is the October gap down point
1897 is the October post gap intraday high.
1880 is the June peak
1862 is the July peak
1786 is the November intraday high
1780 is the November 2008 closing peak
1773 is the May intraday peak
1770 is the mid-October interim peak
The 200 day SM A at 1701


S&P 500: Closed at 1068.30
Resistance:
1106 is the September 2008 low
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low

Support:
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The 18 day EMA at 1037
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
The 50 day EMA at 1001
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
956 is the June intraday peak
944 is the January 2009 high
935 is the January closing high
932 is the July peak
930 is the May peak
919 is the early December peak is bending
899 is the early October closing low
896 is the late November 2008 peak
The 200 day SMA at 892
888.70 is the April intraday high.


Dow: Closed at 9820.20
Resistance:
10,365 is the late September low

Support:
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
The 18 day EMA at 9575
9387 is the mid-October peak
The 50 day EMA at 9274
9116 is the August low
9088 is the January 2009 peak
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
8934 is the December closing high
8878 is the June peak
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8626 from December 2002
8588 is the May high
8581 is the July peak
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8451 is the early October closing low
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
The 200 day SMA at 8414


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

September 29 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller Housing, July (09:00): -15.44% prior
Consumer Confidence, September (09:00): 54.1 prior

September 30 - Wednesday
ADP Employment, September (08:15): -298K prior
GDP - Final, Q2 (08:30): -1.2% expected, -1.0% prior
Chicago PMI, September (09:45): 50.0 prior
Crude Inventories, 09/25 (10:30)

October 01 - Thursday
Personal Income, August (08:30): 0.0% prior
Personal Spending, August (08:30): 0.2% prior
Initial Claims, 09/26 (08:30)
Continuing Claims, 09/19 (08:30)
Construction Spending, August (10:00): 0.3% expected, -0.2% prior
ISM Index, September (10:00): 52.9 prior
Pending Home Sales, August (10:00): 12.9% prior
Auto Sales, September (14:00)
Truck Sales, September (14:00)

October 02 - Friday
Average Workweek, September (08:30): 33.1 prior
Hourly Earnings, September (08:30): 0.3% prior
Nonfarm Payrolls, September (08:30): -216K prior
Unemployment Rate, September (08:30): 9.7% prior
Factory Orders, August (10:00): 1.3% prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2009 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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