- Stocks rally to House vote despite jobs report, then hedge funds sell the rally.
- Is there a panic in the house? Panic talk sends economy sharply lower. Long term damage or just temporary?
- The economy needs loose credit and more. After $700B, however, what can be done?
- Sentiment, internals hit extremes so watching for leaders and a market turn.
- After new lows Friday, history says watch out for Monday and Tuesday.
Once more market finds no solace in the bailout package.
There are three themes attacking the market. First there are hedge funds still in the liquidation process of those massively one-sided trades in commodities, energy, and agriculture. As the market has sold off further that has morphed into liquidation of most of their positions in other sectors as well as they have to raise cash to meet current and anticipated liquidations this month as investors panic and pull out of the market. Second, the bailout passed wont rescue the economy; it is simply a measure to free up credit, i.e. get the markets working the way they should. It does not provide incentive to invest in the economy. The market realizes this and is looking for something else to help stimulate it. Third, some panic from our leaders in selling the $700B bailout package that panicked the populace, causing many to pull in their buying drastically.
It was not the jobs report. The -159K was worse than expected, but the market didn't sell on it, instead rallying the futures after the number. The early optimism got a boost from WFC swooping in to buy Wachovia at a premium versus the FDIC-forced Citigroup purchase of WB. If WFC can find value at something other than federally induced rock bottom, there is hope for the market. Sure it had an IRS rule change aid, but unlike the vote on the bailout, the market liked the WFC/WB deal even if Citi got burned by the deal.
The market rallied through the morning and up to the House vote. The bailout passed. The market, as after the Senate passage, sold off. The news was out, the hedge funds had a rally, hedge funds needed money, the trigger was there. Didn't hurt that the bailout won't fix the problem. It is like a drowning person in the middle of the ocean finding a life preserver. It keeps them from drowning but the situation is still grim with not much hope in sight.
TECHNICAL. It was an ugly week starting with an ugly Monday, a rebound, an ugly Thursday that really got sentiment down given the Senate passage and then the rollover. Friday another passage, another rollover. Everyone is feeling trampled.
INTRADAY. Nice start and rally but SP500 and DJ30 only made it up to the closest resistance before they stalled and rolled over. Bulls never like to see the happy starts then long faces on the close. It shows that the sellers are still on top, as if the action all week didn't suggest just that.
INTERNALS. The week showed some massively negative internal readings with Monday the leader of the pack with new lows at 1392 on NYSE. The NYSE advance/decline ratio was almost -17:1. As extreme as we have seen it. Back in October 2002 -10:1 was pretty much the height of extremism. Thursday as SP500 hit new 2008 lows the A/D ratio was 'just' -5.3:1; new lows topped out at 629 even as SP600 and SP400 broke to new 2008 lows. Friday new lows were roughly even at 642 even as the indices struck out to new 2008 and selloff lows again. Less then half the new lows as the indices hit new lows. So you have extremes on selling and then on further selling the extremes normalize somewhat, though anything over 500 new lows and you start looking for a bottom. Got to that point. Now as the selling continues the lower number of new lows indicates less selling intensity. It is an issue of gradation, but after massively negative sentiment and internals it is another insight that shows the environment is right for the market to bottom.
CHARTS. New lows Monday for all indices but the small caps. Not to be left out, they cratered to a new closing low Thursday and then a new 2008 low Friday along with every other index. Before the Friday new lows the indices tapped at near resistance at the 10 day EMA ahead of the vote. Failing at the lowest rung of resistance is not a sign of inner strength. But this is nothing new. As I said on Thursday in relation to sentiment, we have been here before, this time in a technical sense. Back in 2002 the Dow bottomed, along with the other indices, forming a double bottom where the right leg undercut the left leg. The question we have here is - has it undercut too much and thus require a test of the new low?
You see, there is this technical analysis concept, some would say rule, that new lows have to be tested before a bottom can form. Some say if you violate the old low you have made a new low and thus you have to have a test, and if that test violates that new low then you have to have another test and see if it was violated, etc. Who knew technical analysis was so violent? Who knew there were tests involved? Some who say this are old salts and you would assume if an old salt was around long enough to become an old salt that he or she would be right and thus after breaking to new lows this week the indices would have to bounce and then test again, this time without breaking the lows in order for the selling to finally come to an end.
How do you answer that theory? 'Not true' comes to mind. As with the extremely negative new lows readings, it is yet again a gradation thing. It is also a historical thing. In late 2002 the Dow bottomed with a double bottom where the second low viol . . . er, breached the prior low. The Dow rallied off that second low. It never tested that second low. The 'test' theory must be false, right? Wrong. There was a test. The second low tested the first low. The key is how low can it go? In 2002 the second leg undercut the first by 4.5%. On the Friday low DJ30 undercut its July low by 4.6%. It is pretty much at the lick log point with respect to undercutting the prior low. It can head down more but on the close it needs to get back up in this range.
The pattern is interesting but it is not great. It is in a third leg lower in this selling and the current leg is about half the size of the prior leg. Legs tend to be the same size so if DJ30 is going to hold it needs to do so here or it is going to get well past that 5% grace level for undercutting a prior low and still forming a bottom.
LEADERSHIP. The Dow's chart is still in position to bottom as indicated above. Each technically feasible bottom, however, needs a leader. Actually, it needs a lot of leaders. Thursday we discussed financials shaping up nicely. They sold some Friday though are still holding up well. They are being supported by the ban on shorting though the bailout bill should help them. They sold some Friday as some profits were booked in case the SEC does not re-up its ban. We think it likely will give it another few weeks and thus we can look for them to rebound from this pullback. Homebuilders were solidly setting up bases; until Friday when they broke lower. Food is still good, but that is defensive. Healthcare is good and it can be defensive as well as growth oriented. We are looking around to see if anything else is out there. If leadership, particularly growth oriented leadership, does not develop during the next few weeks then any bounce has a low chance of succeeding.
THE ECONOMY
Everyone on television is panicked so there must be a panic.
All week you heard the comments and they really ratcheted up after the House voted down the $700B behemoth Monday. The President talked about losing our cars and televisions or something along those lines. Senate majority leader Reid launched a selloff of insurance stocks as he tried to sell the new deal, saying a committee member told him a major insurer we all knew the name of could go bankrupt. Not a smooth move. Of course he did the old Potomac two-step (watched "Clear and Present Danger" recently) and had his office say he had no specific knowledge of any insurance company in such a situation, but of course that doesn't mean what he said was not true but he just didn't know the name himself. You have to love it when our leaders make these idiotic blunders. It underscores just how little they really do know and understand about the financial markets. Heck, that statement is worthy of SEC investigation by itself.
In addition the financial stations are reporting on cases of credit impingement. Auto Nation's CEO was on CNBC listing statistics of loan approvals with just 60% of prime borrowers getting loans versus 91% normally. One current car lessor wanted a new lease but couldn't get it. He offered to pay 4 years of payments up from and still couldn't get it. The problem: banks have no money to lend, or at least had no money to lend before the $700B baby. There were stories about college funds ready to disappear, 401k's turning into 201k's, college students without money, car dealers unable to get credit to buy inventory, dogs sleeping with cats, plague, satanic worship, etc.
If your leaders panic then the people panic. When your Senate leader comes out and talks about big insurance going down that worries people, especially when you have had Midwest floods, Atlantic coast hurricanes, Gulf coast hurricanes, western fires - - you want to know your insurance company is at least solvent when Rome is burning.
This was a panic and it has notably curtailed economic activity the past two weeks. Brian Westbury, a very good economist though he was a bit too optimistic with respect to the mortgage meltdown, says this panic talk helped push the US into a sharp downturn since the Paulson proposal was pitched to Congress two weeks back. As noted there are many anecdotes of problems. An interesting statistic that shows the fear induced consumption shutdown is the disaster relief donations for Hurricane Ike. It is now believed that the death toll will top 400 because a lot of people that have been in the 'missing' category are presumed to have been washed out to sea in the communities east of Galveston where homes on pilings were washed away . . . along with the pilings as well. The devastation is as complete as with Katriana east of New Orleans and into Mississippi. Donations for Ike disaster relief are at $20M. For Katrina where far fewer died, donations were $400M. Money is tight, and with the feds spending $700B for bad mortgages, money is not going to be flowing from Washington for other matters.
Comparisons to the 1907 panic-led recession.
Westbury believes that the panic will subside quickly and believes consumption will rebound quickly as well. In the history of the US, the only time a recession resulted from a panic was in 1908 on the heels of the Bank Panic of 1907. J. P. Morgan himself was at the center of that panic, adding stability in a famous afternoon meeting with all of the New York bankers where he raised $25M in a matter of minutes to stave off panic at the NYSE due to a lack of liquidity. He told the panicked head of the NYSE who ran to his office saying the exchange had to close early that it would not close early and then called the bankers together, raised the money, and saved the day. After that day he left his office at about 7PM to see a group of reporters outside. He said slowly 'If people will keep their money in the banks, everything will be all right.' After that day when he went to his office in his coach the street would clear ahead of him to shouts of 'there goes the Big Chief!' Morgan ultimately could not defeat the market failure but it is not without a note of irony that we watched JPM bank as the first big bank to get the nod from the Fed to rescue other banks in this current credit panic.
The 1907 panic followed the 1906 recession and immediately preceded the 1908 recession. Interesting. We said we had a recession in the last half of 2007 and early 2008 despite some pumped up GDP numbers strewn around in the mix. Inventories and exports kept us positive while most of the country fell from lofty levels to just scraping along. The pre-panic recession. The problems snowballed into the current panic just as the economic data starting in the spring started to turn back up as we chronicled all summer. The panic has shut down more than just big business. Now we are going to likely see a new downturn to recession as the more recent data have taken a sharp turn lower.
Westbury says that such a recession will be short-lived as was the 1908 recession, the only other 'go by' we have with respect to panic recessions. Maybe. While there is no doubt that the economy seized up the past two weeks when the credit freeze manifested itself, there was slowing taking place before the panic hit Main street. Auto sales tanked. The ISM fell well off the breakeven point. Factory orders tanked. Spending fell to flat. Retail sales turned negative. It was not just that past two weeks and that means as the credit freeze worsened the impact on the economy worsened. Thus the worst is yet to come because even with passage of the $700 Billion Dollar Baby credit spreads are still huge and it takes time to get the process underway just to get the bailout apparatus on line and thus credit flowing.
Thus we could face a couple of ugly quarters before things break positive. Much has to do with what the federal government can do in addition to the bailout. As for the market, we have to see how it discounts this recession and how far out it expects it to last based upon the market action. As noted above, more leaders are needed because even if the market bottoms right now it doesn't have enough growth companies in position to sustain the move.
The Next Step.
The dog catches the car. Then what? Congress passed the 700 Billion Dollar Baby to get credit flowing. As all of our leaders were saying today, it stopped the bleeding. Okay, now how about the transfusions, surgery, medication, etc.?
That is the unspoken part of the equation. Everyone seems to know something is needed but no leader is yet voicing it because the timing is terrible, i.e. just 34 days ahead of a presidential election. Something needs to be done immediately but logistics suggest it will take at least 6 months to get some form of stimulus passed if it can be passed after this budget busting bill. By that time the recession will be entrenched, not likely the quick snapback Westbury calls for.
Stimulus package. As discussed Thursday, the economy needs a Kennedy, Reagan, and Bush 2 stimulus package #2 stimulus package. That means better marginal rates, lower corporate rates, and 'use it or lose it' tax stimulus such as tax credits for investing in US business, research, home improvement, etc. I have to laugh when I hear some democrats talk about bringing back 'Reagan tax policies' yet say they want the top marginal bracket at 39.6%. By 1986 in the Tax Reform Act of 1986 the top bracket was lowered to 29%. When Reagan took office the top rate was 70%, reduced in 1965 from 94%.
But I digress though just slightly. Credit may be available, but that does not mean people in a recession will use it. The problem with recessions is no one spends money even if it is available. That is why investment tax credits work so well: if you spend the money you get something of value rather than shipping it off to Washington to, as Ronald Reagan put it, "feed the fat man." Unlike the so-called 'rebates' that are sent out and often just saved because consumers are worried about their jobs and thus their income stream, you don't get the benefit of a tax credit unless you spend the money up front. That is the 'use it or lose it' aspect. No wonder the economy did not recover after the 2000 crash with the first 'stimulus' package that was all rebates. It took the second one with its tax incentives that jumped the market forward almost to THE DAY the package was passed as the market bet, correctly, that this package would bring about prosperity. The 7.3% GDP growth in Q3 2003 was the proof. Once again history shows that these tax incentives work.
Problem is, who is going to take the lead on this and fight for it over the next two months? The 'blue dog' democrats would not vote for the $700B bailout because it had tax cuts that were not offset by spending cuts. Nothing wrong with spending cuts but what this means to the blue dogs is no tax cuts because they offset them by eliminating tax cuts elsewhere as their 'spending.' Tax cuts are not spending; it is not taking the taxpayers' money. With a weak, lame duck President and a new administration coming that will want to take credit for any stimulus, nothing will happen. Of course, there are many that like to take no chances, and if they can pass something now and it doesn't work they can always blame the last administration. . . Washington, as we all know, is a strange place that tends to suspend reality.
There is talk of a plan to insure or otherwise back up commercial credit paper. That market helps companies and their liquidity as they sell paper to buyers. That market is in virtual lockdown as no paper is trading hands. It is vital to companies, and there is serious discussion of providing some kind of federal backstop to get that market moving as well. Hey, in for an ounce, in for a pound. The federal government is on a roll so why stop now?
The private mortgage insurance the House republicans put in the bill as an option though one disdained by Treasury's Paulson, may prove to be very useful. It could be the surprise in the bill as a market based solution outperforms the heavy handed federal buy out methodology of the RTC in the past. The Wells Fargo/Wachovia deal shows there is a market out there that does not require the government to buy. FDIC was going to put tend of billions of taxpayer dollars at risk on the Citi/Wachovia deal even if Citi had to take the first $42B risk. Wells said it would do it without the feds at all, aided by a smart and timely IRS rule change allowing acquiring companies sensible tax breaks if it bought a company with distressed assets and wrote them down immediately. That gets companies into the game again and uses a private mechanism to bail out distressed companies. The House plan works very much the same way and hand in hand these two approaches could solve much of the problem without touching much of that $700B boondoggle.
Finally there is the talk of Fed rate cuts. Some are saying the Fed was waiting for passage of the bailout bomb to cut rates so Congress could not use the cut as an excuse not to pass the bill. There could be a cut this weekend or Monday according to a couple of sources we have. Big mistake. Huge mistake. Yes lets put rates back down to where they were that sewed the seeds for this current disaster (1% Fed Funds rate). Let's follow the Japan Plan from the 1980's and 1990's that helped it land that 12 year depression following a similar banking crisis. Japan lowered rates to less than 0% in real terms for 10 years. It did not help at all, but once down it could not raise them or so it feared. Japan has planted the inflation seeds for years to come.
If we go back down to 1% in an even greater attempt at liquidity flooding we build in the same problems as before. This is the band aid approach I discussed last week that doesn't solve the problem but instead keeps us running like a hamster on a wheel from one liquidity/inflation/panic crisis to the next without ever solving the problems of bad debt, a debased currency, and declining foreign confidence. Bad idea. Very bad idea.
What should be done? If we want to try and save the system and keep the bad debt around by shifting it from mortgages to other areas of the economy we will need the first three steps above. As we passed the $700B baby that is the route we are going to take so we need to get the economy going with some stimulus or it is all for naught. Otherwise the Fed should raise rates a bit at a time and the Congress pass stimulus to encourage real investment in solid US businesses and new businesses and ventures while letting the terminal financial institutions go under. That takes the bad debt off the books forever while we build new, strong, viable businesses with the new investment. Out with the old and failed and corrupt, in with new and entrepreneurial companies just as we have done for centuries. Of course we would like to get the government new and improved versus the socialist mess it is in now, but we have to keep things somewhat tethered to reality.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
Market sentiment hit levels high enough to indicate a turn in the market. The gloom hit Main street in fear over a total meltdown. The only thing I didn't hear, though I am sure it manifested itself at some point, was the 'it is different this time.' Maybe comparing things to something that occurred 100 years ago before the advent of the Fed is enough.
VIX: 45.14; -0.12. Hit 48.40 on the high and posted the highest closing price in 20 years. Closed the week high as well. After the peak is hit it takes several weeks for the market to make its break higher.
VXN: 49.76; +0.23
VXO: 51.76; -2.4
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; -0.26. Impressive series of closes above 1.0, showing plenty of expectation to the downside.
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 33.7%. Big drop from 37.5% and below the 35% threshold considered bullish. Now with the bulls down and the bears up big there is plenty of pessimism here. Down from 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July lows. Heading back toward the 27.8% on the low this round. Hit 30.9% low hit in March. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.
Bears: 47.2%. Surging from 40.9%. Closer toward 50.0%, the high on this move, but a long way off. As the NYSE indices test the lows you would want it higher. Still above the 35% threshold so still a bullish indication. A move over 50 takes it to the highest since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. 35% is the level that historically indicates too much pessimism. As with the bulls the jump in bears did its job after hitting 44.7% in the third week of March. Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). This is a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -29.33 points (-1.48%) to close at 1947.39
Volume: 2.549B (+18.96%)
Up Volume: 649.453M (+550.722M)
Down Volume: 1.87B (-239.098M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.53 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.33 to 1
New Highs: 6 (0)
New Lows: 461 (+59)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
Unlike DJ30's second low, NASDAQ has gone too far. Its leaders are in the tank in dives straight down with no semblance of accumulation patterns. If the market is going to find leadership it won't be from NASDAQ unless things change dramatically in the next few weeks.
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -15.05 points (-1.35%) to close at 1099.23
NYSE Volume: 1.42B (-2.98%). above average volume but at least a bit lower to end a week marked by higher volume selling, i.e. distribution or dumping of stocks.
Up Volume: 434.836M (+274.873M)
Down Volume: 976.109M (-318.913M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.87 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 5.35 to 1
New Highs: 17 (+6)
New Lows: 642 (+13)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
Rallied to the 10 day EMA on the high, the lowest level of resistance, and then turned back down to close at a new low for 2008 and in this selling. SP500, despite improvement in many financials given the bailout plan that was coming (and is now here) and the no-short rule on the financials, is in a serious downtrend. This looks to be the third downside leg in the selling. If it matches the other legs (and they often do), SP500 has about 50 to 100 points more to the downside.
SP600 (-2.63%) broke its 9 month trading range to the downside, posting a new closing low on this selling since the July peaks. Not a good sign for the economy as the economically sensitive small caps should lead upside.
SP600 Chart: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.JPEG
SP400 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP400.jpeg
DJ30
As discussed above, DJ30 broke to a new bear market low as it, similar to SP500, sells in its third leg lower. If it cannot hold the line here and form a double bottom then it is going down to 9500 or so.
Stats: -157.47 points (-1.5%) to close at 10325.38
VOLUME: 299M shares Friday versus 395M shares Thursday. Still strong volume.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
MONDAY
Now that the bailout has passed the market has a lot of sizing up to do. Perhaps it started that Friday when it reversed gains and hit new lows for the year. It has to figure in the possibility of stimulus anytime soon (slim), the success of the bailout and perhaps the private solution, and compare that to the expected damage the credit freeze and recent panic did to the economy. That will take some time and that may help, if DJ30 can hold up, the formation of bases by new leaders.
As for the market action associated with this mulling over process, history says that in a bear market, when new lows are hit on Thursday or Friday, you need to watch out for deeper lows on Monday and Tuesday. While that will break up any bottom attempt in DJ30 it would match up historically with other bottoming processes where sentiment and internals hit these extreme levels and then there was a big flush out to start the next week. Then the market works through a few weeks of movement where bases are built, a new test is made, and then if there are some leaders emerging, a new break higher attempt.
You look for what drivers are out there for the market right now, and outside of the bailout bill that is aimed at credit, the list is thin. Europe is in the crapper. That is helping the dollar and thus making exports less helpful to the US economy. Oil is lower on demand issues. We are expecting a move to 85 soon and if things are as dire as the initial readings from Europe appear to be then it could fall to the fifties as amazing as that seems.
In a way the lack of external forces is good. Now the market can go about getting the pipes cleaned out and discounting the future economic activity.
During this time we do what we said Thursday. First, we look at what stocks are setting up in bases. Hopefully some will do so as the ranks thinned more Friday with the homebuilders flaring out. Second, we look to take what the market gives in the interim. That means downside as it sets up and presents itself, some quick bounce plays on stocks that have fallen straight down, and some rolling ranges as the move up and down. It is not a time for investing per se outside of buying just pieces of solid stocks as they move from solid bases, seeing if they hold up. If they test, hold and bounce we add some more incrementally. If more stocks form nice bases over the next few weeks after the Dow holds in this range or dumps lower but then tries to bottom again, we prepare for more buys.
The sentiment indications and internal indications are at levels associated with bottoms. The Dow has an outside chance at holding here and forming a 2002 like double bottom. At the 2002 bottom the chips were leaders but not all of them were in bases. Some were in straight dives lower such as AAPL and other big techs are right now, and turned on the knifepoint. Others double bottomed. Ebay was set up well as was TSCO. AMZN for instance was forming a base and when ahead and completed its pattern while the chips rallied. Financials were in patterns similar to the AAPL's right now, i.e. in dives and then rallying with a V bottom.
The point: with the sentiment indicators this high the market can bottom despite the apparent odds against it, but that means some of these diving stocks will have to find sudden buyers as with chips and financials in 2002, and other growth stocks will need to be in some decent patterns already. There are key stocks in similar patterns, e.g. MSFT, MU, but while they are at bottoms and are setting up bases of sorts, there is still a lack of really good bases on some quality growth stocks. The market needs more of these to form up over the next 2 to 3 weeks as this is usually the Achille's heel in bottom attempts.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1947.39
Resistance:
2070 from September 2008
The 10 day EMA is 2074
2099 is the mid-September closing low
The 18 day EMA at 2131
2155 is the March 2008 low
2167 is the July 2008 low
2202 is the January 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 2237
2261 is a March 2008 interim low
2286 is the first April 2008 gap up point.
2300 is some resistance
2340 from the March 2007 low
The 200 day SMA at 2358
Support:
1912 from April 2005
1900 from August 2004
1882 from October 2003
1782 from August 2004
S&P 500: Closed at 1099.23
Resistance:
1133.50 is the September 2008 low
The 10 day EMA at 11.57
The 18 day EMA at 1182
1200 is the July 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 1231
1240 is the 2002/2003 up trendline
1244 is an August 2005 peak
1257 is the March low
1270 is the January low
The 90 day SMA at 1272
1285 is the recent July peak
1313.15 is the August 2008 peak
1317 from the February low
1324 is the April low
1331 is the June low
The 200 day SMA at 1328
1365 is an ancient trendline
Support:
1075 from August 2004.
1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.
995 from June 2003 peak
Dow: Closed at 10,325.38
Resistance:
10,215 from Q4 2005
10,365 is the new 2008 low
10,459 is a September 2008 low
The 10 day EMA at 10,734
10,827 is the July 2008 intraday low
The 18 day EMA at 10,890
10,962 is the July closing low
11,061 from February 2006
The 50 day EMA at 11,216
11,317 from March 2006
11,388 is the prior August low
The 90 day SMA at 11,497
11,635 is the January intraday low
11,670 is the May 2006 intraday high; 11,642 closing
11,710 is the 2004/2005 up trendline
11,731 is the March 2008 low
11,867 is the August 2008 peak
12,050 from the March 2007
12,070 from the early February 2008 lows
The 200 day SMA at 12,098
Support:
10,127 is an April 2005 low
10,100 to 10,000
9937 from May 2004 low
9814 from August 2004
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 7 - Tuesday
FOMC Minutes, September 16 (2:00)
Consumer Credit, August (3:00): $5.5B expected, $4.6B prior
October 8 - Wednesday
Pending home sales, August, (10:00): -1.0% expected, -3.2% prior
Crude oil inventories (10:35): +4.2M prior
October 9 - Thursday
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 497K prior
Wholesale Inventories, August (10:00): 0.4% expected, 1.4% prior
October 10 - Friday
Export price ex-ag, September (8:30)
Import prices ex oil, September (8:30)
Trade Balance, August (8:30): -$60.0B expected, -$62.2B prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2008 | All Rights Reserved
Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com
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