Monday, March 07, 2011

Keep a Watch for Oil Spikes

- Jobs report, even with its beat, could not live up to expectations, Chavez 'peace' overtures face harsh reality, market sells back.
- Late rally puts a better light on the session, and in the bigger picture this is still just a normal, albeit choppy, consolidation.
- Liquidity continues to trump overall, but keep a watch for oil spikes, spreading unrest, food shortages . . .
- Greenspan tells the feds to butt out with its regulations and taxes while Gross says Bernanke is way off regarding inflation.
- Jobs are being created, but the statistics are misleading as US labor participation rate is well below the historical average, making unemployment figures look better than they are.
- Friday may have been down, but it still suggests a November-like correction versus any major selloff. But, watch out for those hot points that could set off the old stagflation malaise.


Late rebound as shorts cover cuts losses to manageable, or at least more comfortable, levels.

Investors anticipated a better-than-expected jobs report. They got it, but it may not have been as good as they hoped. The 192K jobs beat the 185K expected, but futures were not loving it. Indeed, they bounced a bit on the news and then immediately sold off. As the stock market started to trade, the selling continued. It lasted most of the session until a late rebound. It was not just a late rebound, but a try that could not quite hold it together. At the end of the day, there was a rally into the Friday close. I think that was likely some short covering going into the weekend.

There was some bad news out about Libya. There was some fighting after the "peace day" offered by Hugo Chavez. Reality set in. Who will want Moammar Gadhafi as the head if they rose up in opposition of him? Saner heads prevailed. There were also issues the Saudi Arabia with some expected protests. The market was not too happy about it. Nonetheless, that late short covering came along in the event that good news occurs over the weekend. After all, the trend is still up in the markets, and you do not want to be caught short if good news pops. Who knows, maybe oil will drops to $40 a barrel. Yeah, right.

There was a lot of commentary in the market about economic data, about what the Fed is doing, about what former Fed officials are doing, etc. A lot of news and turmoil. Looking at the SP500 chart, it somewhat reflects the indecision that is occurring at this point. It had a nice upside day on Thursday. It could not quite get it together on Friday, although the rebound cut the losses almost in half and made it a fairly respectable-looking session on the close.

The bigger picture is just a nice, easy and I mean very easy consolidation of a strong, nearly three-month run. There is the initial run, the consolidation, and the second run and consolidation. This one is about half as long as the first one in November. There still could be more room to consolidate here. The day's trade was instructive, at least in part. The market did not sell off wholesale even though good numbers were expected and they were not blowout. It is not rallying right now either.

That is the definition of a lateral trading range. In the big picture, that is not bad at all. We have a good base behind this market from the summer of 2010. There is the breakout, the first test, the next run, and now the second test. Hopefully the economy continues to improve (even at this slow pace) and nothing upsets the apple cart. There are surging oil prices, unrest spreading throughout the Middle East, inflation running rampant. There are several things to upset it that are definite possibilities, but right now nothing appears that burdensome for investors in the face of all the of the Fed liquidity.

Remember, liquidity is what is driving this action. It is not the booming economy although without improvement, the market would not be moving up. It is obviously not oil prices over $100 a barrel. That does not help anybody with respect to our economy. It is that the Fed is still pumping in the liquidity. As of last week, Ben Bernanke gave no indication that he would stop the liquidity pump any time soon. If that is the case, stocks will rise because all of that money has to be pushed somewhere namely the financial markets and commodity market. Any market that can hold some money is getting dollars shoved into it even now.


Dollar: (1.3984 Euro versus 1.3961 Thursday). The trend of the week indeed for the last three weeks continued as the dollar lost ground. It is slowing down in its descent but heading lower. Now it is coming up to a support range from the October and November lows. It is slowing at that level, but it has not stopped at this point. There is nothing to make it stop. We continue to pump liquidity into the system and, at the same time, the ECB says it will raise rates no matter what at its next meeting. That is not good for our currency which will continue to be devalued in the face of other currencies that are being propped up but their central banks. Rather, I will put it this way: Other currencies have the color of being propped up by their central banks.

Bonds: (10 year 3.48% versus 3.5% Thursday). Rallying back sharply after a week of getting the snot knocked out of it. A bounce on the uncertainty in Libya, and a pullback this week as things looked to be better, including the Chavez peace accord announced on Thursday. As noted, saner heads are coming back and bonds started to rally back. It does not make a lot of sense that they would rally given all the problems with inflation.

PIMCO's Bill Gross said Bernanke was dead wrong with respect to inflation in the country right now. He feels it is much worse. He feels it is being exaggerated by stripping out everything that is actually moving higher. As I noted before, if you use the same standards as the old CPI we would have 9% year-over-year inflation in the US right now. Ouch. That is not the low 1-2% they are claiming we have at this time. We even saw it move up in the core CPI because it rose at 0.2% in this last round. That is the highest in almost two years. There is a little ramp up regardless of what our faithful Federal Reserve chairman says.

Gold: Gold bounced right back after the Thursday peace selloff ($1,431.00, +14.16). Again, people said this would not fly and it bounced right back up. The comments of PIMCO's Bill Gross had some influence on the trading of gold and other assets related to bonds. Gold was back up sharply. Not an all-time high, but it is heading right back up in that direction.

Oil: Of course, oil was not slowing down at all ($104.42, +2.51). There is some unrest in Saudi Arabia and there is more fighting in Libya, so it shot up. Another strong day for oil as it goes ever higher.

We have heard nothing from the administration with respect to our oil problem. They did approve one offshore permit that had been in the works for months before the moratorium was issued. There is no comment from our President as to the severity of the situation. Supposedly he is for the common man, the small guy, the hard worker. Yet he is letting their gasoline prices run over $3.00, heading to $4.00-5.00 per gallon. This is all part of his plan. He was very clear about this when he was interviewed in 2008. He said the price of electricity would have to spike, and he was all for gasoline at $5.00-$10.00 per gallon. That would help implement is nirvana plan of somehow forcing us to switch to other fuels whether they are efficient or not.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been looking at the electric engines of the Volt and the Leaf, and he says the technology is not there. He said it cannot provide the kind of power we need to run in the USA. We are not Europe; you can bike across Europe in a few days. We are a big country and we have a lot of land to cover. We have to get serious about whether we can put one million electric cars on the road and ask ourselves whether that will help anything.

You also have to think of the production costs of those cars. Studies have shown that a car such as the Prius takes more energy to manufacture than a normal car. You also have to factor in the disposal of the batteries the energy used to recycle them or dispose of them altogether. You end up using more energy than in a standard combustion engine that gets decent gas mileage (I am not talking about a V10 gas guzzler, of course).

We have to frame this in reality. It all sounds nice, but we are trying to push the technology right now. When the time is right and is there a market for it, it will work. There are private companies coming up with electric cars as we speak not government-owned companies. You need to push the envelope sometimes, no doubt about that, but you also cannot pick who will win and lose. You have to let the best idea emerge. If you create these pressures, then you have problems. Allen Greenspan wrote an article out on Friday that talked about the government intruding too much. It has too many regulations and too many policies right now. They are creating imbalances and holding back the economic recovery.

Greenspan is a free-market guy. That is ironic. They call him the free-market guy given that he ran the Fed and did everything he could to micromanage the free market. His idea is correct, however. You cannot let the government decide who wins and loses and decide what people should and should not do. They do that and then say they will keep their hands off and let everything work. That is nonsense. It is not working. You should not regulate people to death. Look at the EU they have unbelievable numbers of regulations on signage alone. Sure, you need some uniformity, but you do not need 850 pages detailing different types of signage.

You can go overboard with too many regulations, and that is what Greenspan is worried about. He is right. We always have troubles when overregulate. In the Great Depression era, the government was trying to tell everyone what to do and how to do it. It taxed all the money and then spent it the way it thought was best. The leading books and scholars on the era say that was one reason it took so long to get out of the Great Depression.

In the 1970's there were tons of new regulations, taxes, and stagflation. We tried to control everything, and we had those problems. Now we have the slowest recovery since the Great Depression because we have a heavy-handed government trying to pick winners and losers. I digress, but I like to bring it up to put everything in perspective as to where we are going. It is good to hear guys like Greenspan stir the pot a bit and get people thinking about new ideas.


Jobs report beats but where is it in terms of historical norms?

To see the Economy Video click the following link:




Volume. Volume was up 4% on NASDAQ to 1.95, and it was up 4% as well as the NYSE to 1.04B. There is some selling pressure on a little higher volume. There is some churn and distribution, but nothing to get in a snit about, as they said in "The Shawshank Redemption." Just a bit higher churn. It is normal in the choppy, volatile correction we are seeing right now.

Breadth. Breadth was milder at -1.9:1 on NASDAQ with an almost identical reading on the NYSE.


SP500. The SP500 turned back at the early-week peak. It cleared it on Thursday, but it was not a definitive move and it came back to test. It held right at the 20 day EMA, bouncing up off the lows. There was a little short covering, sure. That shows us that it is not a run straight to the upside or downside. It is a lateral, choppy, volatile move. That is characteristic of a consolidation just as we saw back in November. Hard to get too excited about it.

NASDAQ. The rubber match on NASDAQ is the same. Tapped the 20 day EMA on the low and cut its losses in half. It is holding right at the gap point from mid-February. It, too, is bouncing up and down in a choppy, volatile pattern. That is not suggesting a major selloff; it is just a lateral consolidation as it works through these last series of gains.

SP600. SP600 showed similar action. The small caps bounced nicely off of their lows to close down just over 0.3%. Volatile, yes, but there were higher lows and higher highs. It is hard to complain about the action as this is a consolidation that continues to find support and bounce to the upside.

SOX. The SOX had the same action. It was down just over 1%, but it was holding above the 20 day EMA. Higher lows and higher highs as it works laterally. That is nothing to complain about, so we will just let the market work through this.

In the bigger picture, it looks as if stocks are just taking a pause. We do not want to get complacent and assume it will be a November-like test. For now, however, that is exactly what it is showing. It could get worse. We could have oil prices rip higher if there are problems in Saudi Arabia and other places.

$150-200 per barrel of oil is not something that the consumer could deal with. It would be something a lot of businesses could not deal with. It would be an oil shock, and prices would race higher. With all the liquidity in the world, that would be a problem. That would be the same situation we have had before, where we monetize the debts and higher prices, and we put the money out there so prices can rise. With all this money, it is easy for prices to rise if there is some kind of shock.

It is absurd. We have the Federal Reserve chairman telling us this week that prices are not going to rise even though oil is shooting to over $100 a barrel. Let's look at the last time in history we had these circumstances: unbelievably massive liquidity, a super oil shock, and shortages all over the world of food and commodities. That was back in the '70's, and prices exploded higher, bond yields exploded higher, and there was stagflation. The economy did not move at all. This 2.8% is rather illusory as well.

You have to look at the TV in awe when you hear the things they say. These are smart men, but what are they going to say in reality? Bernanke wants to work hand-in-hand with the administration and the Treasury to cure our problems. Is he going to get on television and say that we really screwed the pooch and we have way too much money out here? Will he say these oil shocks are really going to bring us back to a 1970's scenario? Of course not; he would be fired immediately. The American people would lose confidence overnight and it would make Wisconsin look tame in retrospect.

The markets are handling it for now. That is because we have all the liquidity in the world literally going into financial markets, commodities markets, and anywhere else they can find to put the printed money that is not be being used to actually run the economy.


Financials. JPM is putting in a nice flag or pennant pattern. It does not have the nice race to the upside you like to see before a pennant is formed, but it is holding above the 50 day EMA and looks decent. Hard to complain about the action. It could give us a break to the upside. GS had a nice test of this old, long-time support level. Highs, gaps, more gaps, and lows. It has held many times. Look at the volume moving up as it tests. It did so on Tuesday and again on Friday as it sold, but it is holding. No follow-through to break this level. If it can bounce here, GS may prove to be a buy again.

Retail. Retail had a big week with Same Store Sales. BWLD has an ABCD pattern in shape. It started moving higher on a bit of volume on Friday. It was worth picking up a position or two, and that is what we did. There were also the department stores that reported great Same Store Sales on Thursday. SKS is not that great, but it is holding at the 50 day EMA and above these peaks in this consolidation. It is not taking advantage of the good news at all. JCP had a nice pullback to support, holding over some prior peaks. That is interesting. It may give us a trade, but it was not making a lot of impact out of its news. ZUMZ gapped higher on its Same Store Sales on Thursday, but it could not do a thing with it on Friday.

Metals. FCX is trying to roll over again. It looked like it was trying to roll over at the start of the week. It bounced back up, and now it is sagging again. The volume is ramping up as it starts to sag. More selling volume. BOOM had a nice flag pattern forming after a strong ballistic move upside. SCHN is performing fairly well, making a nice bounce. It looks like it could make it to the December high. It is a decent trade for a short-term swing trade if you are not looking to make a lot on it. The problem is it has already moved up quite a bit from this dip. You are looking at as much to the downside if you are wrong as you do on your gain. That is not necessarily the best risk/reward position.

Industrial. CAT is doing the same thing the market is. It has rallied with the market to the upside, and now it is just playing market. It is choppy and volatile but, as with the indices, it is holding up. TEX has a pullback and held the 50 day EMA. We will see what it can do from here. It is trying to make that bounce. It is not looking really bad, but it is not looking great as a new buy. JOYG gapped lower on its earnings on Wednesday, but it is right back in the game, trying to set up a pennant or triangle. It is one worth watching to see if anything develops. It is at $100. You need a decent move for a stock gain, but it could make a good option play.

Technology. AAPL had a modest gain and gapped to a doji. It has had a good week and a half, moving back up off of the 50 day EMA to near the top of its range. Hard to complain about it. It came out with the new iPad and Jobs was there. He did not look like he was at death's door or at least any closer to it. The stock had a great week. Not a breakaway week, but it looks like it is doing a little range trading action right now. The cloud computing stocks were looking good on the week, but they kind of stalled out on Friday. RAX did not go anywhere. ADTN had a good move on Thursday to a new closing high on the rally, but it could not push it forward on Friday. It is still not in bad shape at all.

That gets me back to what the market is overall: Not in that bad of shape. It is consolidating. It is moving laterally and is choppy. A lot of these stocks are the same way. They are not decided on what they will do, but there is no indication of a major breakdown. There are some that could come along and defeat the liquidity of course. There could be major oil shocks, major issues that drive oil higher with all the liquidity out, as I mentioned. They have not shown up yet, so these stocks continue to hold up. We will look for opportunities to buy them as they pull back in good bases.



VIX. The VIX faded back this week after that spike higher on the worries about Libya. It is still at an "elevated" level compared to the recent couple of months, but it is at a level it has held many times. It is really at the low end of the "normal" level of 20-30. Volatility is not high. It has not been ramping up as the market rallied up. This is a normal situation as far as I am concerned. It is trying to make a higher low here, and it might want to bounce some more. That would coincide with more chop and volatility in the stock market itself. That would be normal during a correction.

VIX: 19.06; +0.46
VXN: 20.47; +0.37
VXO: 18.14; +0.97

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.79; -0.08

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 50.6% versus 53.3%. The market chop is taking its toll, sending bears to their lowest on this leg and since November. Below the 55.1% hit in January and the 58.8% high on this leg. Still at a high level in a string of high readings but below the 5 year high at 62.0. Fading back from the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. This is where you start to be careful and watch for breakdowns, but there is also a lot of liquidity being pushed into the market and that can continue the move despite excess bullishness. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 19.5% versus 18.9%. Right back up close to the 19.6% three weeks back. Still well below the 23.3% a month back and below the 28.3% in September. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: -14.07 points (-0.5%) to close at 2784.67
Volume: 1.95B (+3.94%)

Up Volume: 615.29M (-552.391M)
Down Volume: 1.3B (+543.921M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.86 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1 to 1

New Highs: 137 (-4)
New Lows: 48 (+25)





Stats: -9.82 points (-0.74%) to close at 1321.15
NYSE Volume: 1.04B (+4.23%)

Up Volume: 248.13M (-347.296M)
Down Volume: 775.55M (+392.185M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.87 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.15 to 1

New Highs: 202 (-185)
New Lows: 29 (-1)




Stats: -88.32 points (-0.72%) to close at 12169.88
Volume DJ30: 167M shares Friday versus 158M shares Thursday.



Next week the news slows down somewhat as far as the scheduled data, but there will still be some out there. Consumer credit will be interesting to see. It is expected to drop almost in half from what it was in December. We will have initial claims again. They will not be as important this time around because the jobs report is already in the bag. We will be watching it for next time. They are expected to rise a bit but still stay below 400K.

Retail sales will come out on Friday along with Michigan Sentiment. It will be cool to see what the consumer feels about the high-priced gasoline they have to burn in the tank versus spending it on their favorite latte or what-have-you.

The market is in a chop right now, whether it is with the leading stocks or the indices themselves. Of course there are stocks in position or setting up to move higher. We can buy them, but it looks like we have more time to spend with this consolidation. Thursday was a good move. Friday was just a giveback. The numbers were not as great as anticipated, but it was nothing major. If we could get another week or so of lateral movement lateral maybe down to the 50 day EMA that would be outstanding action. That would be a lot like November. It looks similar, and it is still a good consolidation. There is no major selloff that I can see.

It all comes back to liquidity versus anything else that could possibility take the market down. Number one on that would be if Bernanke says they are getting ready to wind this thing up. Then you would see interest rates probably take off even more to the upside. That is why he is probably deathly afraid of even mentioning it under his breath as a joke. If he did and someone heard it, you would not believe the selling that would occur in bonds.

In any event, it will be pretty ugly. It is like when DELL and other companies ran up tens of thousands of percent eventually they were going to miss an earnings report. When they did it was not going to be pretty. Someday the Fed has to say they are out of here, and it may not be pretty. Maybe they can prepare the markets, but with this much liquidity out there they will have to sop it up at some point. When it happens it will be a gut-check period. For now nothing has upset the market. A bit of action in Saudi Arabia and Libya perhaps is getting things a little choppy, but it is not defeating the uptrend. It has not changed the character and there have not been any major breakdowns.

What do we do? I hate to say it, but we are going to do the same thing. We will look for opportunity to the upside. Again, it may take another week or so for this consolidation to finish. There will be leaders that move higher before the end of the consolidation, hence the name "leaders." They will be setting up and taking off. We want to look at those and be ready. Always keep your watch list going. As they present buys, even though things may look a little dicey, you can take some positions.

Often they start coming out ahead of the market. You may not want to do it. Your gut may be telling you not to, but when the stock says "buy me," you should pay attention. You may not want to load the boat, but take some positions and see how it plays out. The important thing is to get the risk/reward right so you are not hurt if it does not go your way, if you were a little early, or if the market does gets an unexpected (but really expected) shock.

We are going to look for those plays. They are still out there. BWLD was one today. They will show up, and will continue to form up as long as the liquidity stays there and there is nothing to trump the Fed's hand at pushing money into the financial and commodity markets. We might get some downside plays because there are still some beauties. We took some more gain on the AKAM play today. It was a nice downside play, but it looks like it is trying to bounce. We decided to bag the rest of that. Others are starting to fall as well. As the market chops, those will tend to fall. That is how they will consolidate. While some stocks will bounce up and down or form shallow bases, others want to correct more. We will take advantage of those to the downside as well, just as we are doing now.

All the while, we have our eyes focused on the Mercedes-Granada corrections and when this one looks like it may end and make the break higher. Right now we have a higher high and a higher low. That is very positive action. We could see the break at any time. I anticipate and hope it will take longer than that so we get better buying opportunities. If the play presents itself, we have to stay with what has been driving the market to the upside and what has not been upset by the choppy consolidation brought about by unrest in Libya.

I will see you on Monday. We will see how long this chop goes and if it starts back to the upside. If it does, you know we will be there.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2798.74

2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak

2796 is the February gap down point
2762 is the February low
2735 from late 2007 interim peak
2729 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
The 50 day EMA at 2726
2725 from July 2007 interim peak
2686 is the recent January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2593 is the November 2010 high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2550 from May and June 2008 peaks
2540 is the gap up point from early November
2535.28 is the April 2010 intraday peak
2530 is the April 2010 closing peak
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2511 is the lower range of the November gap up point
2482 is the recent October peak
2460 is the November 2010 low.
The 200 day SMA at 2440

S&P 500: Closed at 1330.97
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low

1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
The 50 day EMA at 1293
1278 is the 127% Fibonacci extension of the August 2010 run
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1185 from late September 2008
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1173 is the November 2010 low
The 200 day SM A at 1172
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks

Dow: Closed at 12,258.20
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 11,936
11,893, from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,258 is the April 2010 peak
11,205 is the April closing high
11,100 from the 7-08 low
The 200 day SMA at 10,965
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
10,730 is the January 2010 peak

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

February 28 - Monday
Personal Income, January (08:30): 1.0% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior (no revisions)
Personal Spending, January (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.7%)
PCE Prices - Core, January (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior (no revisions)
Chicago PMI, February (09:45): 71.2 actual versus 67.5 expected, 68.8 prior (no revisions)
Pending Home Sales, December (10:00): -2.8% actual versus -3.2% expected, -3.2% prior (revised from 2.0%)

March 01 - Tuesday
Construction Spending, January (10:00): -0.7% actual versus -0.6% expected, -1.6% prior (revised from -2.5%)
ISM Index, February (10:00): 61.4 actual versus 60.5 expected, 60.8 prior

March 02 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 02/25 (07:00): -6.5% actual versus +13.2% prior
Challenger Job Cuts, February (07:30): 20.0% actual versus -46.1% prior
ADP Employment Change, February (08:15): 217K actual versus 165K expected, 189K prior (revised from 187K)
Crude Inventories, 02/26 (10:30): -0.364M actual versus 0.822M prior

March 03 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 02/26 (08:30): 368K actual versus 400K expected, 388K prior (revised from 391K)
Continuing Claims, 02/19 (08:30): 3774K actual versus 3800K expected, 3833K prior (revised from 3790K)
Productivity-Rev., Q4 (08:30): 2.6% actual versus 2.3% expected, 2.6% prior
Unit Labor Costs - R, Q4 (08:30): -0.6% actual versus -0.4% expected, -0.6% prior
ISM Services, February (10:00): 59.7 actual versus 59.0 expected, 59.4 prior

March 04 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, February (08:30): 192K actual versus 185K expected, 63K prior (revised from 36K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, February (08:30): 222K actual versus 198K expected, 68K prior (revised from 50K)
Unemployment Rate, February (08:30): 8.9% actual versus 9.1% expected, 9.0% prior
Average Workweek, February (08:30): 34.2 actual versus 34.3 expected, 34.2 prior
Hourly Earnings, February (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Factory Orders, January (10:00): 3.1% actual versus 2.1% expected, 1.4% prior (revised from 0.2%)

March 07 - Monday
Consumer Credit, January (15:00): $3.3B expected, $6.1B prior

March 09 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/04 (07:00): -6.5% prior
Wholesale Inventories, January (10:00): 1.0% expected, 1.0% prior
Crude Inventories, 03/05 (10:30): -0.364M prior

March 10 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/05 (08:30): 382K expected, 368K prior
Continuing Claims, 02/26 (08:30): 3750K expected, 3774K prior
Trade Balance, January (08:30): -$41.5B expected, -$40.6B prior
Treasury Budget, February (14:00): -$196B expected, -$220.9B prior

March 11 - Friday
Retail Sales, February (08:30): 1.0% expected, 0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, February (08:30): 0.6% expected, 0.3% prior
Michigan Sentiment, March (09:55): 76.5 expected, 77.5 prior
Business Inventories, January (10:00): 0.8% expected, 0.8% prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2011 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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