- Stocks have reason to sell and the sellers take their shot, but they fall short and stocks turn positive.
- Renewed upside bias shows itself Friday as NASDAQ joins the other growth industries with a new 2010 closing high.
- Market finding solid leadership from many areas, but SP500 could use some financial help to get through the November high.
- Job creation 1/3 of expectations, unemployment rises to 9.8%. Should anyone be surprised? Economic data has improved, but it is not THAT strong.
- VIX drops to its October-November lows again as SP500 tries the November peak.
- Key test for SP500 after a solid bounce already: can it follow the growth indices?
Stocks overcome a weak jobs report, showing the renewed upside bias.
Two strong days on Wednesday and Thursday and in the Thursday night report I talked about possibly getting an opportunity in the morning to buy some positions a bit cheaper after the jobs report. I did not have any inside news on what the report, but I expected it might be a little bit disappointing because everyone was getting ginned up with the economic data. There has been a definite improvement in US economic data in manufacturing and retail. Same store sales came in very well for November, and people got a little overexcited with their expectations. Jobs lagged, and the economic data is simply not strong enough for a long enough time to generate the job growth people were hoping for.
Expectations were only 130K, so that was not any massive leap in jobs. In fact, it was lower than what was reported in October. When jobs came in at 39K versus the expectations of 130K, however, that was a bit hard for the market to swallow. The non-farm payrolls were bumped up for October to 172K from 151K but the actual numbers were disappointing at 1/3 of expectations. Significant to the headline factor, the unemployment rate ticked up to 9.8% from 9.6%. That is always a problem. More people entered the work force because of that optimism seen in the Michigan Sentiment report, consumer confidence, and retail sales. The unemployment rate went up because more entered the market than there were jobs to absorb. That was a disappointment as was the average workweek holding steady at 34.3 hours. Average hourly earnings were also unchanged versus a modest gain that was expected, and that was on top of a decent 0.3% gain in October. It was a letdown all the way around.
Looking at the SPY before the jobs report, there were nice gains in the futures. After the jobs report, we hit the bottom just before 8:00 o'clock central time. The market came back and performed fairly decently. It was down at the open, but on the upswing from the opening bell. Indeed, the market put in a jagged performance through lunch and early afternoon, and then it started higher. The market showed its renewed upside bias. Remember, it just went through a good correction and lateral consolidation over the prior three weeks. It showed a lot of buy support, particularly in the SP500, and it made a nice break to the upside. There was a good pullback, a nice lateral consolidation, and a strong upside break.
During this rise from August into early November, the market seemed to continue to find an upside bias. It disappeared during this correction, of course. That is what happens. Now that upside bias is returning. There was every reason for the market not to recover on Friday. The jobs report was highly anticipated to be better and turned out worse than expected, yet stocks rebounded as investors used the dip to buy back in. That tells us that buyers are still here. The upside bias asserted itself in the afternoon, and stocks rallied nicely to the close. There was a broad lateral move during the session into early afternoon, and then stocks caught a bid into the weekend.
I thought we would not have much to buy given the solid two upside days Wednesday and Thursday, but it turned out that we actually had the opportunity to buy some stocks on Friday. I was looking at GS, and it had rallied nicely the day before. I thought we could get a pullback after the jobs number. It did have problems early on in the session. It was higher premarket, but as the session opened it traded lower and we were able to pick it up at a lower price. Then the stock churned upside the rest of the day. Indeed, there were some great stocks and really classic patterns that we looked at on the Thursday report that performed very well on Friday. They were moving up nicely, and I was not going to second guess the pattern and second guess what the market was showing. We bought positions, and more than I anticipated we would. That is the way the market is.
We do not rule the market; the market tells us what to do. You just have to be smart enough to see what is happening and follow it. I was not going to say that I do not like the buy on Friday and stick to that plan even though stocks in great patterns were showing great action. That is the way you miss out on moves. Sometimes you get in a little early on a Friday. We could have a test on Monday -- after all, SP500 still has to deal with its November peak. The growth indices are moving very well, however. A lot of these stocks were growth-type stocks. You just do not want to turn a blind eye to good moves, and we did not. We stepped into those positions.
There were gains across the board. NASDAQ, +1%; SP500, +0.25%; Dow, +0.2%; SP600, +0.7%; SOX, +0.5%. The NASDAQ 100 stocks are not doing as well as the smaller cap NASDAQ stocks. That is no surprise right now because a lot of the large-cap techs led the initial move upside, and stocks such as AAPL and GOOG are struggling right now. It is no problem; other stocks are coming in and leading from other areas. Energy and industrial stocks are performing well, material stocks are starting to pick up the pace. Semiconductors are performing well, and of course retail is looking great -- particularly stocks like DECK. SP500 will need help from the financials, and they were not able to continue the rally on Friday. They looked good Thursday, and some of them are moving up, but SP500 will probably need some help if it is going to break through that November peak and continue following the growth areas. The financial stocks are coming to life. We will see if they can continue higher next week after taking a pause on Friday.
Dollar. The dollar took it on the chin on Friday. On Wednesday and Thursday, it pulled back after a strong seven-day rally. The pullback was normal, but the move Friday was not that normal. It was a hefty loss at 1.3%. Versus the Euro, the dollar completely tanked (1.3416 Euro versus 1.3224 Thursday). That does not tell the story, however. The dollar broke below 1.3 Euro early in the week, and what a reversal it has shown. It has almost given up the entire move higher on the second leg off of that low. Is it in jeopardy now? Yes and no. It is down to its 50 day EMA, and that is a support level. It is holding near that prior peak on the first run off the low, so it can find support here and continue to the upside. It is the size of these losses that are worrisome. These are big daily losses, and they ramped up on Friday. We will see if the dollar can hold.
Why did the dollar have trouble? Worries about the EU were somewhat mitigated this week given the Irish bailout, and that immediately firmed up the Euro and dropped the dollar. We had good economic data, and that would tend to firm up the dollar because the Fed would be less inclined to continue with as much Quantitative Easing. When the jobs report was a disappointment and the jobless claims on Thursday were disappointing, that helped weaken the dollar further to close out the week.
Bonds. Bonds were rather flat on Friday after taking a thumping during the week (10 year 3.01% versus 3.00% Thursday). It was not long ago that the 10 year treasury was trading between 2.7 and 2.8%. It has been a fairly quick turn for the bond, but as the economic data improved, bond traders became concerned that the Fed would not need to use as much Quantitative Easing and buy as many debt instruments. Therefore, there is not as much demand for them, and bonds to sell while yields start to rise.
Gold. Gold had an excellent day and a strong week. It took the day off Wednesday and Thursday, but it had a big Tuesday and a big Friday ($1,408.00, +18.70). There was a lot of activity late in the day, and gold continued to run up. It was a very strong day for gold, and it was a strong finish on the day as well. In November, gold closed at a high of $1,410.10, and it hit a high of $1,424.00. It is not at that old high, but it posted a new closing high. I will not toot the horn too much because we are not there yet, but back in March I said gold would hit $1,500 this year. It does not look like it will make it, but it has had a heck of a run. It has been a heck of a run just in the last 5 months. It is strong, and now they are saying it will go to $2,000. I am not sure about that, but I do know $1,500 is still reachable and it will probably get there.
Gold is looking stronger, and it has taken out the October interim peak. It has taken out the closing high from November, and we will see if it can continue the momentum. It is definitely looking stronger because it is shooting down the resistance points in front of it.
Oil. Oil had an outstanding week, and it was up again on Friday. Lo and behold, it hit a new high -- closing and intraday -- over the November peak as it topped them quite easily ($89.22, +1.22). A strong session for oil, and as you can see, it has topped the April and May peaks. Looking at a weekly chart, it is not an all-time high, but it has cleared just about everything else outside of this sprint higher in 2008. This could be a bit of tarnish on the holiday season. The average gasoline price is already jumping higher. I believe it was quoted at almost $2.90 nationwide. Can you believe in the winter we have gasoline prices approaching and topping $3.00 a gallon? I even want to think about next summer, but we will be doing that not too long after the first of the year. They saying oil is rising because of the perceived recovery in the world economy -- that would mean the US joining the fight with India and China. If that is the case, that means more oil being used and more demand on the black gold.
Volume. Volume declined 11% on NASDAQ to 1.75B shares, and it declined almost 19% on the NYSE to 907M. It was not a big volume day, and that is okay. The indices were either at new 2000 highs or bumping up against old resistance, and they were under some pressure. They were not doing too well on the day, so I do not mind seeing some lighter volume. There was no churning at these highs; they just drifted higher in the face of some bad news. I do not have an issue with that, and you probably should not either.
Breadth. Breadth was tame. 1.5:1 on NASDAQ and 1.8:1 advancers over decliners on the NYSE. Those small caps helping to push the NYSE breadth higher.
SP500. After spending two weeks down at that key level and bouncing up each day, SP500 finally made the break this week. Big moves on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday it was not able to take out that November peak, but it has taken out the April peak and that is good news. It has not taken out the November peak yet, and MACD has not moved up. I cannot say there is a divergent top here yet, but I am watching that. You have to keep an eye on leadership as well, and I will talk about that soon. MACD is not going to rule the roost versus having good leadership and rotation in the market.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ broke through the April peak earlier in the week. On Friday it broke through to a new November closing high. That would be a new closing high for 2010 as well. Volume was not great. MACD is making a bit of a lower high here. It is something to watch, but it does not tell the entire story. One of the reasons we have trouble with MACD is that the momentum from the large cap stocks are not helping NASDAQ that much. On SP500, the financials are trying to help but are not doing a banner job.
SP600. SP600 was an excellent performer, up almost 0.7%. It, too, cleared its April and November peaks. Note that its November peak never did top April, so this was a significant move for the small caps. They have taken the bull by the horns and taken leadership by the horns as well.
SOX. SOX is doing well. It broke through its April and November peaks this week. It did so Thursday for the April peak, and it added to the gains on Friday after a gap lower. Growth is showing excellent strength. There is some good news. There was a higher high with MACD as it made its move, so it is looking somewhat positive, leading the rest of the market to the upside.
Financial. GS dipped on the open. It still lost some ground on the day, but it was modest and we used that to move in. I still think it has a little ABCD pattern we can make some money off of. Some of the other financials contributed nicely. WFC posted another gain, almost 1% on the session. Hard to complain about the action. It is approaching the November peak, and it is going to have something to prove. That is important because SP500 is approaching that November peak and will need help from the financials. The financials have to deal with that themselves. That will make this a very important challenge for the market this coming week. JPM added to the gains as well, up 0.75% on the session. It is rolling back up in its rolling pattern. There is hope from the financials that they can help SP500 break through that November peak next week.
Industrials. Industrials were strong as well. They had a great week, and it was epitomized by CAT moving up for four strong sessions after a Monday doji at the 18 day EMA. Good volume on the initial move higher, and coasted up to close higher on the week. Very solid move. CMI closed a little bit down on the session Friday, but it had a great week. It gapped higher Wednesday, clear some resistance and came off of a little flag pattern. Very strong, nice action from many of the industrials.
Semiconductors. XLNX had a strong week, moving up to its summertime peak. It will have a little challenge because there is not a lot of volume here, but it is just moving nicely to the upside. NVLS is breaking to the upside, getting some open field to run in. It had a nice rally that broke through a resistance level, it came back and formed a flag pattern, and then it has broken higher and is working very nicely to the upside. NVDA had a strong move, continued higher and beat the odds. It has filled this gap from way back in May with a big base. It came back, nice handle, a gap to the upside, and it has the power this time. It is challenging and breaking through that gap point.
JASO has an ABCD pattern. It held right at a key support level, and note that gap point in the prior highs. It put in a good high-volume break to the upside on Friday, and it looks like it is pulling away from its D point. TSL may have a similar pattern, something of an ABCD. It is a little more wobbly than JASO, but I am going to watch TSL. It may be worth taking a deeper look.
Technology. The big techs continue to struggle. AAPL is at the top of its trading range. There is a bit of a divergent top, but it formed a big trading range as well during the summer and it broke higher off that. I am not going to get in a snit over that. GOOG is trying. It has gapped sharply lower this week. It tried to rebound late in the week, and it did, but it is more of a bear flag. More aggressive. You would try to play it down to the gap point, and we could do that. It closed at $573 and, the gap point is at $541. That gives a significant area to play to the downside. You could play a downside move. Then we would look to catch a rebound after the gap fill and see if we could ride it back up to the prior high. That would be a pair of good moves just taking what the mark gives you -- whether downside or upside.
Energy. Energy had a great week. HAL went straight up, showing excellent strength. PBR continued a great roll up higher in its trading range on the week. I like that and am letting it move. I like the fact that it broke through the 50 day EMA. It has a gap point here, but it is a gappy stock. You do not worry about gaps as much with a stock that gaps as much as PBR. It is making the steady move upside as I want it to. APC did not have a great session, but it came to life this week. It is primarily known as a gas producer, although it has a lot of oil production. It was good to see some of the gas companies starting to rally to end last week.
Retail. Every time it looks like DECK will have trouble, it continues higher. Here it gapped up to a hangman doji a week ago, and that did not stop it. It gapped up higher the next two sessions. Volume has taken off. It is getting ballistic -- you might start thinking, "This is getting frothy; is it a blow off top or not?" Then it tested on Thursday. It could have been coming back, but then on Friday there was more volume to the upside in a huge 6.5% move. Now the volume is big and the stock has run tremendously. You could start thinking it is a blow off top here, but I am going to let it run. If it gets to $100 on this move and volume crescendos even more, then we will definitely take some money off the table. You would be a fool not to. Right now, we will see how this runs. We all know that a stock and the market can run much further than anyone would rationally think it could. We will let it work until it tells us it is not going to work anymore. DECK was not the only one, although it was one of the more spectacular stocks. SKS did not have great same store sales, but it held in there and put in a flag after a great run to the upside. On Friday it broke through the topside of that flag. It continues to show strength even though you may not think it could do it. PNRA had an excellent week and an excellent month. It gapped higher on Wednesday and to the gains on Thursday.
Select areas are doing much better in retail. I will throw in ANF because it moved well on its same store sales the other day. Very nice, but some of them are getting crushed. They still have to perform, and ARO was not able to do that. ZUMZ was up 20% with its same store sales, topping expectations, but it got hit on the move. Now it is holding support, so we will see if it can hold and continue to the upside. There are some cracks in the armor. They have had big runs, no doubt. From $14.00 up to over $32.00 -- is a big run in any book. With a lot of good expectations already being built in for the Christmas season, some people are taking money out.
Summary. Overall, leadership is very solid. It would help if the financials came around, but money is pushed into the other areas. This week it went into materials, and we were already into some VMC. It went more into energy, and we have already gotten into several energy stocks as well. It is going into some of the housing stocks, although I am still not wild about them. Of course, a lot of the small caps are moving higher and the semiconductors are starting to break back to the upside after a consolidation. Money continues to flow into the market, and it continues to move around in the market. That is a healthy indication. That leads me to believe that, after this nice correction that the market showed these past three weeks, that it is going to give us a nice run toward the end of the year.
Will it make it to December 31st? I don't know. Who does? There is Quantitative Easing coming in, there are fund managers chasing performance to the year end, and that is producing a lot of good leaders with a lot of great patterns to play. When that happens, you tend to get continued runs to the upside. Now we have had a nice correction and consolidation, so the table is set to continue the move upside. Indeed, the market started eating at that table this week. Of course we were there, too. We took the market's invitation.
VIX. The VIX had a tough week. It gapped lower Wednesday, falling Thursday, and again Friday with big chunks. It landed down near its October and November lows. There is a lot of speculation that that means the market is going to sell. It might and it might not. It was lower back in March and April of this year as well. What does this mean? When looking at volatility, many people say if it gets too low it means the market is set up to sell. That is really not the case. Looking at historical charts, volatility can be low for a long, long time and the market still rallies. After a long rally, you should worry when volatility rises as the market rises. Back in 2007 right before the financial crisis, the market was rising. Then volatility started to rise with the market in that last part of the run. That is not a good thing to see. Looking back to 2000, you can see volatility spiking, starting to rise as the market was ready to peak out. Not a great thing to see. Right now, we do not necessarily have that. The market is rising, yet volatility is falling.
What I see in the near term with these pictures is a small correlation set up. As the market or volatility goes up and down and they move inversely, you get a rise in volatility indicating a drop in the stock market price. Then when it falls, you see the market bounce back. When the volatility rises, the market falls. Does this look like much of a correlation? Right now, it is a modest one at best. Volatility was rising and the market was trending slightly lower, and then as volatility fell, the market spurted higher this week. That is the inverse relationship. It is down to levels that the market hit on other occasions in October and November. Now the question is if it will mean a pullback in the stock market. The SP500 is at a key level, but NASDAQ, SP600, and the SOX are all moving through their April and November peaks. They could come back to test in a pullback, and that would bounce volatility up somewhat. That would be fine, but it probably will not be anything major. It will probably be more like what we have seen right here.
VIX: 18.01; -1.38
VXN: 19.77; -1.65
VXO: 17.19; -1.72
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.79; +0.09
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 55.4% versus 55.7%. A second week of fading even as the market continued its gains, falling from 56.2. Strong surge from 48.4% just a month back, the strongest move upside since May, indeed topping that level and getting closer to the 5 year high at 62.0. Moving toward the level considered bearish, i.e. where so many are in the market and believe it is going up that the ammunition to send it higher runs low. This is where you start to be careful and watch for breakdowns, but there is also a lot of liquidity being pushed into the market and that can continue the move despite excess bullishness. The crossover level at 29% bulls is long gone, but it did its job. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 21.8% versus 21.6%. A modest gain, rebounding from 20.2%. Fell from 23.1% a month back. Pausing the slide after holding steady at 24.4% for two weeks. Down from 28.3% in September. The 37.7% peak at the height of the crossover is well in the rearview mirror but bears remain well below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish for the market overall. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +12.11 points (+0.47%) to close at 2591.46
Volume: 1.751B (-11.24%)
Up Volume: 1.191B (-299.292M)
Down Volume: 626.839M (+113.189M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.55 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.76 to 1
New Highs: 230 (+8)
New Lows: 27 (-9)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: +3.18 points (+0.26%) to close at 1224.71
NYSE Volume: 907.531M (-18.81%)
Up Volume: 631.905M (-319.301M)
Down Volume: 259.157M (+97.081M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.8 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.51 to 1
New Highs: 475 (+13)
New Lows: 60 (+2)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +19.68 points (+0.17%) to close at 11382.09
Volume DJ30: 149M shares Friday versus 212M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
There is more economic data next week, but the bulk of the important data was released this week. There will be crude inventories, initial claims, and some wholesale inventories. Then there will be the import/export prices. It will be interesting to see just how much inflation we are importing or not. It will be good to see if Michigan Sentiment clicks up higher and continues its improvement. The consumer has been fairly ebullient of late and has been buying and helping send stock prices higher.
Maybe it is a chicken-or-the-egg scenario. Bernanke wanted people to feel wealthier, so he is pumped a lot of money into the economy. He knew it would not be used for economic activity, but that it would be put into the financial markets. Thus, the financial markets would rise and people's stocks would be worth more. Even though the prices for their houses are in the toilet, at least they would feel better because their stock portfolios are up. Maybe they would go out and spend some money. Good grief, was he correct? After all, look at those retail sales and same store sales. Hard to argue with that. There is a lot of money out there, and there is a lot of pent-up demand after a couple of really crappy Christmases. The stage is set, and stocks are making the most of it thus far.
I will keep looking around for leaders in the market. I will see if I can find more that are in good position or some new leaders trying to step up. Financials might prove interesting given that the SP500 is at its November peak and a lot of the financials have to break through that level as well. Maybe we will get some action from them, and that should really energize the large cap index and help it follow along with the growth indices. I did not think I would see many plays after the great run on Wednesday and Thursday, but looking around, there were several. There were a lot of those ABCD patterns that I talk about quite a bit. JASO had its ABCD pattern set up. All of a sudden there bunch of triangles forming. In the summertime, it was an inverted head and shoulders. Then the break out from that, and then a lot of stocks formed a triangle. JASO formed an ABCD pattern. There are all these consolidation patterns that formed. The triangles are breaking higher, and now the ABCD patterns are breaking higher. I will continue to look for new opportunities.
We have quite a few positions in the market, but that is the way it is. When the market runs and money is flowing into different sectors, different sectors perk up, set up, and break higher. You just have to play it when the market is there. In certain times of the year, fish run. Whether it is spawning season or the fall when they are fattening up, you need to be out there fishing for them when they are on the move. That is what you do with the market because there are going to be slow times ahead. There are these kinds of runs now into the end of the year. At some point after the first of the year, there will be a pullback; there always is.
We will keep playing this rally because that is what the market is giving us. Whatever I think about the future does not amount to a hill of beans. We will take what the market gives, watch what it shows us and tells us, and then we will respond accordingly. I will continue to look for good setups as money moves around the market into new areas. I will try to find some quality stocks in quality positions that we can take advantage of and make more money this year. We have had a great year, and it looks like this Christmas rally is going to turn a great year into an outstanding one. That means you need to stay on your toes, however. When it looks good and everyone thinks we will get the run to the end of the year, it may come up short. We may start checking up before Christmas. If that is the case, we will just bank some great gains.
Have an excellent weekend!
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2591.46
2593 is the November 2010 high
2725 from July 2007 interim peak
2735 from late 2007 interim peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2550 from May and June 2008 peaks
2540 is the gap up point from early November
2535.28 is the April 2010 intraday peak
2530 is the April 2010 closing peak
2518 is interim peak from April 2010
2511 is the lower range of the November gap up point
2482 is the recent October peak
The 50 day EMA at 2474
2460 is the November 2010 low.
2434 is the May interim peak and the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the April selloff.
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
2382-2395 from 2008
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
The 200 day SMA at 2342
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2310 is the August 2010 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 1224.71
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1185 from late September 2008
The 50 day EMA at 1180
1174 is the May 2010 high, 78% Fibonacci retracement of April peak
1173 is the November 2010 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
The 200 day SM A at 1135
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows
Dow: Closed at 11,382.09
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,258 is the April 2010 peak
11,205 is the April closing high
11,100 from the 7-08 low
The 50 day EMA at 11,058
10,963 is the July 2008 low
10,920 is the recent May high
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,644
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
December 07 - Tuesday
Consumer Credit, October (15:00): -$2.3B expected, $2.1B prior
December 08 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applications, 12/03 (07:00): -16.5% prior
Crude Inventories, 12/04 (10:30): 1.07M prior
December 09 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 12/04 (08:30): 430K expected, 436K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/27 (08:30): 4250K expected, 4270K prior
Wholesale Inventories, October (10:00): 0.8% expected, 1.5% prior
December 10 - Friday
Trade Balance, October (08:30): -$44.4B expected, -$44.0B prior
Export Prices ex-ag., November (08:30): 0.7% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, November (08:30): 0.3% prior
Michigan Sentiment, December (09:55): 72.5 expected, 71.6 prior
Treasury Budget, November (14:00): -$134.0B expected, -$120.3B prior
December 02 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 11/27 (08:30): 436K actual versus 422K expected, 410K prior (revised from 407K)
Continuing Claims, 11/20 (08:30): 4270K actual versus 4200K expected, 4217K prior (revised from 4182K)
Pending Home Sales, October (10:00): 10.4% actual versus 0.0% expected, -1.8% prior
December 03 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, November (08:30): 39K actual versus 130K expected, 172K prior (revised from 151K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, November (08:30): 50K actual versus 140K expected, 160K prior (revised from 159K)
Unemployment Rate, November (08:30): 9.8% actual versus 9.6% expected, 9.6% prior
Hourly Earnings, November (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Average Workweek, November (08:30): 34.3 actual versus 34.3 expected, 34.3 prior
Factory Orders, October (10:00): -0.9% actual versus -1.3% expected, 3.0% prior (revised from 2.1%)
ISM Services, November (10:00): 55.0 actual versus 54.5 expected, 54.3 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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