- Market cannot continue the gains, but that is rather normal.
- Pundits negative on the action, but with the news Friday, if things were still bad it would have been down a lot more.
- Personal income rises, spending falls.
- Michigan sentiment rising, but now sentiment means less.
- ECRI indicators predicting 'noticeable slowing.'
- Still just a bounce in an overall bearish environment. Again, we are not married to the bounce, just using it for what it has.
North Korea blusters, Spain debt downgraded, and stocks fall . . . but not as bad as you would think.
There were some negative things said about the market after the Friday close. After a big 4%+ run on Thursday, the indices closed in the neighborhood of 1%. NASDAQ -0.9%, the Dow -1.2%, SP500 -1.2%, and SP600 -1.3%. They were down across the board. The NASDAQ 100 fell only 0.5%, so maybe there is a little positive light there. In fact, I think there is more than just a little positive light. Looking at the chart for the day, a lot of the loss came late in the session. The market was down most of the day, but it held and rallied back into the last half hour. It was moving higher until the last 20 minutes or so, but it was still holding on and recovering. Then, right at the end of the day, some sell programs pushed the indices down perhaps making the losses appear worse than they were. The market was coming back, and that was not bad action. Why am I not too negative? I am not a raging bull about this market at all, but I think we are still due for more of a bounce. The market was in a tremendously oversold condition as the SP500 undercut its February lows and reversed. Massively oversold and ready to bounce in the short term, and it started to do that. Maybe it will fail; the SP500 failed at the 200 day EMA on Friday, so maybe it will not make the continued move.
There are a few things to consider before you conclude that this bounce is dead and buried. Number one, it is normal after such a huge run higher to be a bit soft the next day. There was a lot of short covering on Thursday. There was not the need to cover as much on Friday, but there was still some covering late in the day. The market rallied off new lows for the session and almost eclipsed the highs on the day, so there was some short covering. It was down and a little bit weak, but it was not a massive rollover where the sellers blew out whatever buyers there were on Thursday. Number two, there was a lot of bad news out on Friday, yet the market still managed to rebound in the afternoon. North Korea threatened all out war or something silly of that nature as it usually does. It is silly with a threat behind it, however, because they are a nuclear power. They could do a lot of harm to some of our allies and more peace-loving nations. Another piece of bad news came during the day when Fitch lowered the credit rating of Spain from AAA to AA+. That is one notch and not a huge move, but it was huge in the fact that it was actually done. There is always a lot of talk about whether the PIIGS are credit-worthy or not. The fact that Fitch is recognizing this and moving down the credit rating is just the tip of the iceberg. Remember how late to the party all of the rating agencies were when the economy basically collapsed? All of these great companies were holding a bunch of crud and no one bothered to lower the ratings even though everyone knew it was crud. To many, that means that when the credit agencies finally get on board it is a bit late in the game. That was bad news, and yet the market still managed to come back late in the session. But for that last five minutes were it got ugly, it was not a bad close at all.
It is understandable to be a bit negative with the recent selling; it has been the worst May since 1940. I think that is the statistic all of the financial stations were throwing out. What is the old adage? "Sell in May and go away." We sold a lot and made a lot on the downside, and now I think we will get a bounce even with all of this negativity. Again, it is understandable to be down on the market, but most people are negative at the wrong times. It crescendos. A lot of the sentiment indicators are starting to show the extremes. VIX surged higher, and after it surges the market typically rallies. It is not right away, but a week or two down the road. Looks like we are trying to get that started right now. That is a lot of negativity. We are also seeing -11:1 closing breadth, and that was getting to be extreme. The put call ratio was over 1.0, and indeed up to 1.3-1.5 several sessions in a row. These are all extremes that indicate the market is getting overdone to the downside. This bounce we saw in the SP500 and the other indices on Thursday, while it did relieve some of the downside pressure, did not relieve a significant amount. After all, you have the indices at a key level. SP500 is at the February low as well as long term lows it is still holding right now. Note how it reversed to get back. It is the same with the NASDAQ. It is holding up at long term support levels that date back to 2000. These key levels combined with the extreme indications suggest this bounce is not over. I am still looking for a move back up to the January high on NASDAQ and, more specifically, on the SP500. Maybe it will only get to the bottom of this consolidation range in January. Whatever. We will just watch it, and we have taken some upside. We will let them bounce up. If it stalls out there, we will close down most of our positions. If there is a further run higher, then that is great. If not, we are out of them, and we will flip it to the downside and go from there.
Again, I never said we were married to this bounce. I did not think it was the bottom of any correction and the start of a new bull run. It is an oversold bounce. There is still a lot of work to be done because these are very sharp moves. There are two old adages in the market. You either grind them out with a long, slow process of going nowhere, or you scare them out with the huge moves up and down. That is how double bottoms are formed. Maybe there will be a double bottom that shoots the market higher or maybe not. I think we will get a double bottom that will take us up mid range. That is obviously a tradeable move and we are already in positions for that. This has definitely got the "scare them out" flavor to it. With so many pundits still negative and with the market at such extremes as far as the internals and sentiment, that suggests we have more of a bounce coming. Let us not forgot it is the end of the month. Tuesday is the first day of the new month and starts the last month of Q2. There will be money put to work, I believe, on Tuesday. That could be the catalyst that carries SP500 up for another couple of days. That is all it really needs: two good days to the upside, and we have nice gains on our upside positions. Then we can take some off the table and see where it goes from there.
In a nutshell, the market is still in a negative bias. Yes, there is still a lot of negative sentiment, but that is working for us. The market did not collapse on bad news. It is holding some key levels, and it bounced off of those key levels. It took a day off on Friday with a bit of a hangover. There is new money that could come in on Tuesday with the new month, and that suggests there is more upside. Maybe I am wrong, but these kinds of sharp, downside moves have to have a pressure release, and I think we will get more of a pressure release. I do not think we will get all the way back up to the early-May peak after the May 6th flash crash, but I think we will get into the range between the January lows and the January highs. Again, that will make us money on the upside before we flip it back to the downside. Marriage? No. We will use this date for all we can get out of it. I know that sounds cheap and trashy, but sometimes you have to treat the market that way because you know very well it will try to treat you that way.
Dollar. The dollar was up on Friday. It had a rough week because there was some belief that Europe may recover when China said they are European backers. Of course China holds a lot of European bonds and Euros and it will back its investments. Just the way it says it will stay with the US, even though sometimes it does so a bit begrudgingly. The dollar rallied (1.2268 Euros versus 1.2361 Thursday). The dollar is still at a double top at an important level. It is at the late 2008/early 2009 peaks and is encountering a bit of resistance there. There is a bit of double top and a bit of good news out of the EU, so the dollar is stalling a little. It does not look to be in serious trouble even though it has a small double top in place. It may try to come back a bit more and test. This was a heck of a run during the fear that hit in early May. A bit of a pullback into the range above the 50 day EMA would not be out of the ordinary.
Bonds. Bonds had a better day after getting crushed on Thursday with the improving economic conditions in the EU and China's backing of the Europeans. Not huge, but it was still a move up (US 10 year 3.30% versus 3.35% yield Thursday). There was a bounce in bonds. It was clubbed, and this is interesting because there was an island reversal. There was a gap higher, then five days across, and then a gap lower on Thursday. It is at the bottom of this gap point and at the 18 day EMA, and we will see if it bounces from there. Bonds should be selling if the US economy is strong and everything is working correctly. The problem is that the EU scared everybody, so bonds have been rallying in the US as a safe-haven trade. If we get over the idea that the EU will collapse and we assume that the US economy will improve, then bonds should continue to sell. They are showing a little weakness but are not showing a breakdown yet.
Gold. Gold was up slightly on the session ($1,213.70, +1.80). It rebounded last week. There was a little bit of the fear that drove it lower on deflation worries. Now that China is backing the EU and the US economy is continuing to chug along with modest gains in the economic numbers, gold is moving higher on an inflation trade again versus a deflation selloff. Gold is back at the December 2009 peaks and has held there for three sessions. It had trouble getting through it back in late April and early May. This is a key point for gold. It could come back, test further, and break higher. It could be an ABCD pattern perhaps. This is one I am watching. If inflation wins out and everything gets copacetic, then it could run back up. With all the outstanding money, the worry would be inflation. Later I will look at some of the economic data which suggests that may not be the case.
Oil. After a strong week with a double bottom at the bottom of its seven-month trading range, it had a nice surge to the upside. Friday it gave back a bit ($74.09, -0.46). Considering that oil was breaking $68.00 per barrel not even a week ago, it is a pretty impressive move. It is a technical move on some better feelings about the fear and the economic future in Europe. That helped bolster oil this week, and we will see if it can hold. It is down at the bottom part of the trading range. Oil is kind of in the same situation as the SP500 and the stock indices that still have an oversold condition to work off.
Breadth. The internals were pretty ho-hum on Friday. Breadth was -2:1 on the NASDAQ, and basically -2:1 on the NYSE. It was not weak or insignificant breadth, but it was relatively tame action compared to what it has been at -5:1 to -10:1 (and of course you can flip it on the upside days).
Volume. Volume was weak again, down 8.5% on NASDAQ and up 2.4% to 1.4B on the NYSE. It is elevated but lower compared to where it has been of late. Can you read much into that? It was lower-volume selling, so that would be good. Less selling pressure, fewer players influencing the market. If a few of them decide to sell, of course it can move the market without a lot of volume showing up. Then when everyone comes back it changes its tune. You can look at it that way, but it was also Friday before a three day week. It will be lower and always is. It is a bit significant, but I will not read much into it. It did not change much.
SP500. There was the flash crash on May 6th, and it held above the February closing low and then undercut it last Tuesday with the big reversal day. Then it sent it higher on Thursday with a big surge. Low volume, so it looks like a bounce. I am not saying this is one to get hitched on, but just play the bounce. I think it will be tradeable coming into the range at the January peak. On the low that puts it around roughly 1130, and on the high it is roughly 1150. That is a band of resistance that I will watch. Hopefully it will continue higher with new money to start next week and the new month.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ did the same thing: It made a lower low, but it did not undercut the February lows. It did hold long-term support dating all the way back to 2004. It has held many times at this level which is where, notably, the flash crash touched on the May 6th low at 2185. That general level has held 8 times since 2000. It held it, it has bounced up, and it is above the 200 day EMA with that gap. I am looking for a move up toward the January peak at roughly 2325. It closed at 2257, so there is another 75 or so points to that level. That is exactly the trade I am looking for and we are playing right now.
SP600. SP600 was down 1.3% on the day, right in line with the other NYSE indices. It bounced off its 200 day EMA, held the January peak, and rallied last week. It was a modest turn down on Friday and still looks like it has room to the upside. It has some resistance in March, but I am looking more in the range where it gapped up in early April to be the resistance. We will see how it plays out. We are anticipating this run, and we have IWM calls we are going to play up. Then I do expect it to get to this May peak, but I am looking for it to get to the point where it gapped up. Then we can look at taking some gain off the table.
SOX. The semiconductors have not been blasting off to the upside, but they have been a relative strength leader. They moved back up to the bottom of the January consolidation and March consolidation and then stalled. They finished well off the low on the day. I still anticipate a higher move from the semiconductors. They could get up to this gap point from early April at 381 after closing at 355. They could have a nice chug to the upside before I expect a rollover and a comeback to consolidate. I am looking for consolidation by the indices. It is not that this jerky action is going to necessarily set the bottom to make a new rally to a new high off the 2009 lows. It is possible. We have set up a double bottom and it could ricochet it much higher, but this is not a very broad double bottom. Usually you have a larger-term picture. If you look at the two-day chart, you can see a rise, a fall, and a head coming back down the same level. Then it could make a shoulder if it goes back up to that January peak. That could be a longer-term head and shoulders, and that is usually what you see at a significant bottom. This could be forming a significant top if we put in a head and shoulders.
It is the same thing if you look at SP500 over the longer term. You could be putting in a left shoulder, a head, and if it bounces up to that January high and comes back down, you have a right shoulder there. That is something to watch for. That is a longer-term pattern than the little potential double bottom over the past four weeks. I am not expecting SP500 to get through the January peak, but we will be watching out for that. I will also be looking at that to play some downside and flip it over if the market stalls out there. The market is still in transition and still attempting to base out. It is not there yet, but the double bottom could shoot it back up to the January highs. Everyone is thinking it will roll over, and it may. It could be a real weak bounce and take it right back down, but we have seen such extremes in sentiment and volatility that this oversold condition is not worked out of the market yet. We will get the bounce we want before it rolls back over and gives a nice gain to the upside. Then we will get the heck out of dodge.
There is not a lot of leadership right now. Many stocks have taken it on the chin and are down, but there have been relative strength leaders in this market.
Retail. This sector led on the way up and is recovering faster. TJX has bounced nicely this week off its own double bottom from the May 6th low and the recent low last week. Nice move up off that level after breaching the 50 day EMA. It has recovered it. COST had a big surge up on Tuesday. It cleared the 200 day EMA and gave it up marginally on Friday, but there was no volume there. Nice move up, and it could continue higher as well. You can see this in many other stocks in the retail sector. PNRA had a nice double bottom coming back up, and it has room to run a bit to the upside as well.
Semiconductors. Semiconductors were stronger, showing relative strength. LSCC is looking better. There was a nice, good-volume break higher on Thursday. It gave it back on Friday but is holding on low volume above the near support. NVLS had a strong move off a little double bottom, and that is actually working as a handle. If you look at a weekly chart, you can see something of a double bottom with handle forming. Not bad.
Metals. Metals made something of a comeback. They held key levels and bounced last week, and we will find out what they are made of next week. We will see if they can get back up toward the May peak. MTL has significant resistance at 26. That is a nice bounce if it will make the run for us, and it started it. We will see if it can finish. FCX is the same story. It held an important level, undercut one of the levels, and then bounced with a little double bottom off the lower level, breaking back through there is that false breakdown and rallying higher. I am looking for more upside to see if it can extend with the continued market rebound before it rolls back over. The rest of the market is in a lot of disarray at this point.
Financials. JPM bounced nicely off of a support level, broke it, came back and tested, and rallied higher. It came back Friday on lower volume, and we picked up some upside positions. It broke the near term downtrend. It was holding tight at the 10 day EMA and broke through that. We will see if it can continue higher after the hitch on Friday. It has plenty of oversold pressure built up and could easily pop up into the 44 level and give a nice move. We picked up some positions on it Friday. GS looks like it is trying to form a double bottom. I talked about the rising MACD on the play. It is still holding up nicely on Friday and in excellent position to continue higher.
We have three areas of leadership. Two of them are showing relative strength retailers and semiconductors. While the metals and some of the financials, after getting beaten down, have held key support and are trying to bounce. This is similar to NASDAQ and the SP500.
Personal income and spending so-so.
Michigan sentiment continues to rise but its importance wanes.
ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) points toward 'noticeable' economic slowing.
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
VIX. The VIX has had big spikes and higher lows. That typically builds into more selling in the stock market, so you can anticipate that the selling is not over. There was a major spike, and now it has been a week of the VIX pulling back. It looks like it could bounce given the Friday action, but I think there is still more bounce that could take volatility back near the early-May low and the 50 day EMA. That would take the SP500 up toward its January peak, and that is the inverse relationship between the two at work. After you have a big spike in volatility, typically there is a move in stocks later down the road. I am expecting more of a bounce here. If we get a bit more upside, that is exactly the kind of oversold relief bounce we are looking for the upside plays.
VIX: 32.07; +2.39
VXN: 31.61; +1.31
VXO: 30.83; +2.43
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.21; +0.17
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 39.3 versus 43.8%. Another substantial drop on top of the fall from 47.2% the prior week. Down from 56.0% before that, the high on this move, falling short of the 60% to 65% considered bearish, but not that short. As with horseshoes, it was close enough. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 29.2% versus 24.7%. After holding at 24.7% for two weeks the bears' ranks swelled after falling to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: -20.64 points (-0.91%) to close at 2257.04
Volume: 2.124B (-8.5%)
Up Volume: 448.581M (-1.744B)
Down Volume: 1.637B (+1.519B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.11 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 6.71 to 1
New Highs: 36 (+5)
New Lows: 36 (+14)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: -13.65 points (-1.24%) to close at 1089.41
NYSE Volume: 1.456B (+2.38%)
Up Volume: 248.841M (-1.133B)
Down Volume: 1.196B (+1.158B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.96 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 8.54 to 1
New Highs: 74 (-3)
New Lows: 37 (-4)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: -122.36 points (-1.19%) to close at 10136.63
Volume DJ30: 244M shares Friday versus 265M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
Monday is Memorial Day. We are going to have several important economic reports out including the jobs report on Friday. We will be building into that number. They are expecting 500K after 290K the month before, but a lot of those are government jobs. That is stimulus money going to states. Construction spending and ISM will both be important the ISM more so. We will see the impact of the weakening in the regional reports on the overall ISM. There will be pending home sales and then ADP on Thursday. That is the warm up for the jobs report. There are the always-important initial claims. Factory orders come in on Friday, and the non-farm unemployment rate. 9.8% down from 9.9%. We will see.
Sentiment has been rising, and that means more people coming into the jobs market. With 460-480K new weekly claims, they are likely not finding as many jobs as the more hopeful pundits believe they are finding. We may see more people coming into the market and pushing that rate up to 10%. It may or may not happen. It is pretty close, but I do not expect it to go down. These are all just wild guesses, and they are all close to 10% regardless of what you are looking at. With weekly claims of 460+, it is hard to say you are getting a lot of jobs growth. That will have a lot of impact on the market. If it is moving higher up at that point and the number is bad, you can expect it is heading lower
We are going to look at more of a technical orientation (of course that is the way we usually do it). I am still looking for a bounce higher off this reversal at important support points. One of the drivers for next week is that Tuesday is June 1st and money has been coming into the market at the beginning of the month. We will see if more money comes in and trumps any urge of the sellers to sell when they get back from vacation. That should drive the market back up toward this range of resistance between the bottom of the January consolidation on SP500 and the top or peak in January. That is our target on this move. If it gets there I expect it to stall some. We will take plays off the table. If there is a laggard that is not performing well, we will definitely close it out. The ones that are moving higher, we will take some of the gain off of the table on them. We can leave some depending on how we feel about the move and what it looks like. If there is a big reversal, I am inclined to close it out. If it just stalls a bit, we can take some gain and see if it just rests and then pushes higher. I will err on the side of taking more off than less given that the overall bias of the market is still down.
It has not shown that it has turned the corner by any stretch. We may have a longer-term bearish pattern setting up with a head and shoulders. We already have a left shoulder and a head, now we are back down the neckline and bouncing. Moving back up to this January range is the perfect setup for a head and shoulders top. That is what I will be looking for, and that is our entire game plan to this point. Once it gets there, we reevaluate, we take some off the table, and maybe have to flip it to the downside. We will take whatever the market gives.
Next week is a shortened week, but that does not mean there will not be fireworks. I am looking for new money to come in to push the indices higher toward the January peak. Then we will take gain, reevaluate, and be ready to take downside at that point. If we have to, we will close them out on the upside, move them in on the downside, and play another leg lower. You just have to take what the market gives as it goes through these consolidation ranges. If ECRI is accurate and it usually is and if there is going to be noticeable slowing in the economy, then why would the stock market build in gains? Indeed, the stock market is taking some of them out. With this potential head and shoulders forming, it could be heading lower before it goes higher significantly toward a new high. Thus we want to play that move. The character has not changed; we are only playing a near-term bounce. Even though the market has been wild, we have made some excellent money. The February through April rally was great. We made good money on the downside, and now we will scalp a bit on the upside before we roll over and probably make a big chunk to the downside on this next drop. Have a great three-day weekend.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2257.04
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2350
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2228
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1089.41
1101 is the October 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 1105
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 1142
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,136.63
The 200 day SMA at 10,282
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
The 50 day EMA at 10,617
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
May 24 - Monday
Existing Home Sales, April (10:00): 5.77M actual versus 5.65M expected, 5.36M prior (revised from 5.35M)
May 25 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, March (09:00): 2.4% actual versus 3.0% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.6%)
Consumer Confidence, May (10:00): 63.3 actual versus 58.3 expected, 57.7 prior (revised from 57.9)
FHFA Housing Price I, March (10:00): 0.3% actual versus -0.4% prior (revised from -0.2%)
May 26 - Wednesday
Durable Orders, April (08:30): 2.9% actual versus 1.5% expected, 0.0% prior (revised from -1.2%)
Durable Orders ex Transportation, April (08:30): -1.0% actual versus 0.7% expected, 4.8% prior (revised from 3.5%)
New Home Sales, April (10:00): 504K actual versus 425K expected, 439K prior (revised from 411K)
Crude Inventories, 05/22 (10:30): 2.46M actual versus 0.162M prior
May 27 - Thursday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q1 (08:30): 3.0% actual versus 3.3% expected, 3.2% prior
GDP Deflator - Second, Q1 (08:30): 1.0% actual versus 0.9% expected, 0.9% prior
Initial Claims, 05/22 (08:30): 460K actual versus 455K expected, 474K prior (revised from 471K)
Continuing Claims, 05/15 (08:30): 4607K actual versus 4600K expected, 4656K prior (revised from 4625K)
May 28 - Friday
Personal Income, April (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.3%)
Personal Spending, April (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior
PCE Prices - Core, April (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Chicago PMI, May (09:45): 59.7 actual versus 60.0 expected, 63.8 prior
U. Michigan Consumer, May (09:55): 73.6 actual versus 73.2 expected, 73.3 prior
June 01 - Tuesday
Construction Spending, April (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
ISM Index, May (10:00): 58.9 expected, 60.4 prior
June 02 - Wednesday
Pending Home Sales, April (10:00): 3.5% expected, 5.3 prior
Crude Inventories, 05/29 (10:30): 2.46M prior
Auto Sales, May (14:00): 4.1M expected, 3.9M prior
Truck Sales, May (14:00): 4.8M expected, 4.9M prior
June 03 - Thursday
ADP Employment Survey, May (08:15): 56K expected, 32K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q1 (08:30): 3.4% expected, 3.6% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q1 (08:30): -1.6% expected, -1.6% prior
Initial Claims, 05/29 (08:30): 455K expected, 460K prior
Continuing Claims, 05/22 (08:30): 4600K expected, 4607K prior
Factory Orders, April (10:00): 1.7% expected, 1.3% prior
ISM Services, May (10:00): 55.5 expected, 55.4 prior
June 04 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, May (08:30): 500K expected, 290K prior
Unemployment Rate, May (08:30): 9.8% expected, 9.9% prior
Hourly Earnings, May (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Average Workweek, May (08:30): 34.1 expected, 34.1 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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