* * * *
12/29/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: JNJ
Stop alerts: Took some losses for 2017 to have something to write against
the wins. BBBY; RMBS; UA
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- A late year rally, by any name, does not emerge.
- Weak action accelerates late on news Russia is also selling crude to North
Korea.
- Technically, SP500 and DJ30 still need a deeper test.
- The new year predictions and the unpredictability of new years.
- It's all about the money flow as the new year starts.
Ho no no. The tepid Pere Noel (Belgium), Babbo Natale (Italy), Hoteiosho
(Japan) went backwards Friday, ending a strong equities year with losses
that were stronger than they have been in over two weeks. They even
accelerated very late in the session when stories hit the wire that Russia
is also selling North Korea oil in contravention of UN sanctions, apparently
hooking up with North Korea bound tankers out at sea. And the UN was upset
about the US wanting to move its embassy to Jerusalem? Seriously? Anyway,
that dive at the close made things look a bit worse than they were most of
the session, and things didn't look that bad regardless.
SP500 -13.93, -0.52%
NASDAQ -46.77, -0.67%
Dj30 -118.29, -0.48%
SP400 -0.56%
RUTX -0.87%
SOX -1.05%
NASDAQ 100 -0.70%
VOLUME: NYSE +34%, NASDAQ +20%. Up significantly but both still well below
average. Last day of the year shuffling exacerbated some by the tax reform
going into effect.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -1.45:1, NASDAQ -1.9:1.
You could say the sellers took over, and they did on Friday for sure, but in
context it was the last day of the year, deductions will mean less next year
as tax rates are lower, and so take some losses to offset against this
year's gains. We did some of that as well.
That does not explain why some leaders were sold, but then again, some were
selling positions taken recently that were not doing anything in the yearend
lateral move. Take some off the table, book the loss this year, have the
money ready to go next year to put in whatever moves to start 2018 and the
lower tax rates that go with those gains.
Some stocks such as AMZN had their own reason to head lower, and when it did
not immediately rebound, there was piling on. The President unleashed his
final tweet storm for the 2017 stock market year and in it he mentioned AMZN
and its favorable treatment from the USPS, how the USPS should charge AMZN
more to keep the USPS from getting 'poorer and dumber.' When Trump comes in
on an issue, like it or not, things seem to change. Thus AMZN was punched
for a 1.40% loss back to the 20 day EMA.
Indeed, of the FAANG, AMZN, AAPL, FB did not have great sessions,
particularly the latter two. AAPL contritely offered battery changes for
$29 (regularly $79) for those seeking one, but let's face it, most of those
people already upgraded to another phone because their prior iPhone's
function degraded and they thought the phone was dying. If AAPL had told
customers that the phone function was decline when the battery weakened and
replacing the battery would return it to its original functionality then the
customer could have made an informed decision whether to upgrade because of
new features or not. As I tell the people in the office, communication
avoids 99% of the problems in the world.
Anyway, whether it was FAANG or chips or financials or machinery or software
or transports it was down. About all that was up were some oil stocks as
oil moved over $60/bbl, but even those moves were tame. The market
definitely suffered from a lack of leadership on the session as no one
wanted to step out and buy to end the year.
CHARTS
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
Where most of the week was marked by a lack of movement in the indices,
Friday saw larger moves and moves cracking the 10 day EMA on most indices.
Cracking the 10 day. What carnage. Again, likely just some loss taking on
recent positions ahead of the year end to use those for the higher tax rates
in 2017.
SP500: Closed just below the 10 day EMA, filling the gap higher 9 sessions
prior. Volume was significantly stronger than any on the week though still
well below average. Okay, SP500 is testing back on the last day of the year
but still nothing severe. The bigger issue are the five rallies up the 10
and 20 day EMA since leaving the 50 day EMA in early September. That is
typically the max number of runs you get and that means SP500 could see some
further testing to start 2018. The 20 day EMA is 2663, another 10 points
from the Friday close. The 50 day is down at 2620, another 50+ points
lower, and that is really where SP500 should go in a more typical technical
move.
DJ30: Faded to the 10 day EMA on the close, higher though still well below
average trade. Very much some pre-yearend positioning. As with SP500, five
rotations up the 10 and 20 day EMA and due a test lower at least to the 20
day EMA at 24,500. The 50 day is near 23,960, and as with SP500, after this
kind of run that is typically where you would expect it to test.
NASDAQ: Dropped to the 20 day EMA on rising but still well below average
volume. That makes four tests of the 20 day EMA for NASDAQ since leaving
the 50 day in late September. That leaves NASDAQ another rotation to go,
but if SP500 and DJ30 sell NASDAQ will likely be hard pressed to rally as
they fade unless there is a round of rotation back into techs.
NASDAQ 100 just cracked the 20 day EMA as the large cap NASDAQ continue to
underperform the overall NASDAQ.
SP400: Dropped to the 10 day EMA after gapping to a higher high on the
open. The midcaps still look quite good as they continue their trend into
the tax vote. Not a freight train upside of late, but still trending
higher.
RUTX: Fell through the 10 day EMA as RUTX was unable to make the break to a
higher high. Neither RUTX nor SP400 are extended.
LEADERSHIP
Retail: Actually showed some upside stocks though many were flat to lower.
TGT was up modestly. TJX a hair. Most were testing, e.g. HD, COST, ROST,
TLRD. ULTA, AAP in nice tests.
Oil: Some gains, e.g. DNR, PTEN, HAL, but a lot of tests in progress, e.g.
MRO, CVX, CRZO.
Financial: Testing in pretty good patterns, e.g. C, JPM, GS.
FAANG: AMZN hit by the Trump USPS pricing tweet and sent to the 20 day EMA.
AAPL broke the 50 day MA's. FB sold through the 50 day MA's again. NFLX
tested the Thursday surge. GOOG held the 20 day EMA test with a nice tight
doji.
Semiconductors: Struggled, even the chips in better patterns, e.g. MRVL,
CAVM. CREE, INTC still solid. SWKS, QRVO still have work to do. AMD, MU,
LRCX, AMAT all have more work. NVDA could be a downside play here with its
upward pointing wedge. Will have to see which way the money goes to start
the new year.
Machinery/Manufacturing: Even CAT and CMI were off, but ever so modestly.
HON, UTX down a bit harder but holding fine.
Transports: Airlines, truckers, the sector leaders, were down modestly on
the session after testing most of the week.
China: Struggled to end the week with the Chinese economic data questions
and the evidence China is selling North Korea oil in violation of the UN
sanctions. It's okay; so is Russia.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -118.29 points (-0.48%) to close at 24719.22
Nasdaq
Stats: -46.77 points (-0.67%) to close at 6903.39
Volume: 1.57B (+19.85%)
Up Volume: 368.35M (-421.88M)
Down Volume: 1.16B (+666.38M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.92 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.5 to 1
New Highs: 158 (+46)
New Lows: 27 (0)
S&P
Stats: -13.93 points (-0.52%) to close at 2673.61
NYSE Volume: 710.2M (+34.76%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.44 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.92 to 1
New Highs: 185 (+50)
New Lows: 13 (-11)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.04; +0.86
VXN: 15.68; +1.06
VXO: 9.46; +1.03
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; -0.02
Bulls and Bears: Pretty large drop though still easily over 60 for the
bulls. That is still in the overly optimistic range and of course the surge
Friday will bring them around again to the upside. This is a warning
indication, but not a great timing device.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3
versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1
versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0
versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5
versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7
versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5
versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
versus 19.1 versus 19.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2
versus 16.5 versus 16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3
versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9
versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75
versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6
versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Dollar selling off, bonds rallying, gold surging with a supposedly tighter
Fed and pro-growth policies coming into effect. That appears to make little
sense.
Bonds: 2.405% versus 2.434%. Bonds surged on the week after a massive
collapse the prior 1.5 weeks down to the 200 day SMA. Again bonds bounced
from this level.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.434%
versus 2.412% versus 2.474% versus 2.485% versus 2.484% versus 2.501% versus
2.459% versus 2.398% versus 2.351% versus 2.36% versus 2.403% versus 2.389%
versus 2.378% versus 2.34% versus 2.353% versus 2.381% versus 2.363% versus
2.363 versus 2.412% versus 2.385% versus 2.326% versus 2.329% versus 2.321%
versus 2.34% versus 2.354% versus 2.367% versus 2.345% versus 2.37% versus
2.336% versus 2.375% versus 2.407% versus 2.402% versus 2.34% versus 2.326%
versus 2.316% versus 2.32% versus 2.332% versus 2.349% versus 2.358% versus
2.378% versus 2.37% versus 2.419% versus 2.456% versus 2.435% versus 2.421%
versus 2.366% versus 2.383% versus 2.318% versus 2.341% versus 2.30% versus
2.302% versus 2.275%
EUR/USD: 1.12001 versus 1.1936. Huge breakout over the November high and
now challenging the September high.
Historical: 1.1936 versus 1.1936 versus 1.18998 versus 1.18593 versus
1.18628 versus 1.18658 versus 1.18792 versus 1.18408 versus 1.17703 versus
1.1752 versus 1.17798 versus 1.18392 versus 1.17430 versus 1.17652 versus
1.1764 versus 1.17754 versus 1.17990 versus 1.18276 versus 1.18727 versus
1.18983 versus 1.18976 versus 1.18529 versus 1.18489 versus 1.1899 versus
1.19329 versus 1.18148 versus 1.17402 versus 1.1791 versus 1.1787 versus
1.1786 versus 1.1799 versus 1.16443 versus 1.16646 versus 1.16439 versus
1.15871
USD/JPY: 112.690 versus 112.758. Faded Wednesday to Friday but holding well
within its range.
Historical: 112.758 versus 113.216 versus 113.208 versus 113.304 versus
113.363 versus 113.334 versus 112.870 versus 112.625 versus 112.619 versus
112.298 versus 112.639 versus 113.555 versus 113.476 versus 113.48 versus
113.473 versus 112.473 versus 112.554 versus 112.442 versus 112.190 versus
112.55 versus 112.102 versus 111.583 versus 111.244
Oil: 60.42, +0.58. First close over $60/bbl since 2015.
Gold: 1309.30, +12.10. Gold sprinting higher the past three weeks into the
yearend. Not at the highs for the year hit in August near 1365, but what a
recovery.
TUESDAY and the New Year
Predictions come flying this time of year and it seems everyone has one or
two or twenty. I predict that 99% of them don't occur, and the other 1%
were so vaguely worded that the claim of correctness will be dubious.
I don't know if the market will go up by year end or not. I do know it will
go up and down or down and up depending upon your perspective. By how much?
Again, I don't know and neither does anyone else.
Technically, SP500 and DJ30 should test deeper toward the 50 day EMA even if
the overall rally or uptrend in those indices continues. NASDAQ is close
enough to their extension to go along with them barring, as noted earlier,
rotation into big techs again.
The small and midcaps are not extended as are the large caps, so the
technical picture favors them continuing their uptrends barring any
character changes.
What could cause that? Well, the money that headed to the exits in late
2017 is a primary concern. Bonds rallied as money moved in, oil as well,
gold also. Bitcoin and other cyptos? Sure, some money went there as well.
The risk/reward with the tax cuts would suggest the small caps and midcaps
continue to perform. If that money does not come back in for the new year
and the better taxation scenario, then the market likely does not hit new
highs again any time soon.
I always hate new years in the market because there is often no predictable
direction. This year is even more tangled thanks to the tax reform and now
even more geopolitical intrigue thrown on top with the Russia/China UN
sanction-breaching oil sales to North Korea. Let the good times roll in
2018!
Our plan is to let the trends hold if they will. There are some very good
setups to buy into and there are very good ongoing plays to let rally if
they will. It is all about where the money goes to start the year. We have
some great plays working and ready to go to work if the money comes in.
At the same time, if the money leaves some areas, some downside plays would
be appropriate. DJ30 is extended as is SP500; some downside plays there
would be appropriate. We will look at others to start the week and add more
if the action remains ambivalent to lower to start 2018
Have a great New Year's celebration!
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Saturday, December 30, 2017
Friday, December 22, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 12-22-17
* * * *
12/22/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Market reopens Tuesday after Christmas holiday. Merry Christmas!
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Indices test nicely, waiting for Santa to bring his rally next week.
- SP500, DJ30 are extended, but this action does not indicate near term
topping.
- Still many leaders testing near support and looking good if the bids
return.
- Fund outflows jump post-tax passing and the market weathers it with a
modest test. The question is whether the outflows continue.
- Many plays are ready to move if they get the nod.
The stock market is apparently waiting on Santa to show up and bring a Santa
Clause rally. After gapping nicely upside Monday, the balance of the week
was testing. With outflows post-tax reform vote at $14.5B from equity funds
there is justification to the argument that the action showed 'smart money'
leaving the market. Hey, we took some profits as well based upon a specific
set of plans.
SP500 -1.23, -0.05%
NASDAQ -5.40, -0.08%
DJ30 -28.23, -0.11%
SP400 -0.03%
RUTX -0.27%
SOX -0.05%
NASDAQ 100 -0.12%
That said, the Tuesday to Friday action was not in itself damaging to the
market. Lower volume, quite modest fades by both the indices and leading
stocks. Sure DJ30 and SP500 are quite extended, but the action this week
did not suggest they are rolling over. That may still come as the market
moves past the yearend good tidings, and we are very cognizant of that, but
you can only take the market that presents itself.
Even so, as discussed earlier this week, while large caps may find the need
to fade and consolidate more than these past four sessions, other areas of
the market are still fresh and can easily make new moves. Indeed, even the
FAANG and some other NASDAQ large names can still move: they based all
summer and broke out in late October. We still own some of these (GOOG,
INTC, AMZN) and are looking at new positions on them as the case may be.
Money definitely flowed out as the flow indicators state, but if this is as
bad as it gets, that was nothing. The key is whether the money continues to
leave or if it was just some readjustment. If net outflows continue, stocks
of course will struggle more to find a floor. Again, thus far the outflows
resulted in only modest, low volume tests, indeed very normal tests back to
the 10 day EMA for the indices and for leading stocks.
TUESDAY
We have a lot of great plays on the report, plays that are ready to go if
they get the nod from investors and traders. AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, CAVM, CUTR,
FFIV, GOOG, PTN, PTLA -- lots that look really good, and still more not
mentioned. If they show the moves we want to play the moves. Also, love
the pullback on ROKU and we are putting on a new play on it for next week.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Friday added to the long list of the week's data. Again it was good in some
respects, not so good in others. On a week that saw regional PMI's beat
expectations and housing sales surge, other reports missed, even if
slightly.
Durable Goods, preliminary November: 1.2 vs 2.1% exp vs -0.4 prior
(from -1.2)
Ex-Transports: -0.1 vs +0.4 exp vs 1.3 prior (up from 0.4%)
Business investment: -0.1 vs +0.8 October (from 0.3%). That was the
largest drop since 2016. At least the revision from October helped offset
the miss.
Personal Income, Nov: 0.3 vs 0.4 exp vs 0.4 October
Personal Spending: 0.6 vs 0.4 exp vs 0.2 Oct (from 0.3)
New Home Sales, Nov: +17.5%, the largest in crease in 25 years. Well, I
suppose those people needed some money to finance the purchases so that
explains the outflows from the market? Good gains, lock in some profits to
pay for the new digs.
Tax reform effects: More companies announcing bonuses, etc.
BAC to pay $1K bonuses to 145K employees. BBT increases its minimum pay to
$15/hour.
Expect to see a LOT more of this next week.
Also, AMGN said it will face a 6% tax issue with the new code. Expect to
see these announcements as well.
Bitcoin: Crashed through 14K overnight, then through 13K. It held, however,
at the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the prior move and started to bounce
late in the session. Ah, some trading parameters are holding in its action.
We are watching and looking for opportunities to trade this, and once
comfortable, we will share the trades with you of course.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
SP500/DJ30: Both are about the same in terms of extension with the Dow a
bit more than SP500. Both gapped higher Monday to new highs, both tested
the gain the rest of the week, showing doij at the 10 day EMA. Modest,
lower volume selling, holding near support. Thus far not flashing any
warning signs based on their trading action. That is different from their
technical position that is, as noted, extended with 4 and 5 runs up the
short term moving averages after the last 50 day EMA test.
NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100: Both are quite similar. They too gapped upside to highs
Monday then faded the move to the 10 day EMA through Friday, showing tight
doji there to close the week. NASDAQ on its fourth run up the 10/20 day
EMA, testing this week after its upside gap. No danger signals based upon
the trading action with the stronger volume rise, lower volume fade.
SP400/RUTX: Both the midcaps and small caps gapped higher Monday to the
prior highs from late November/early December and stopped there. Lateral
slides to Friday, not the fade of the large cap indices. Tax sensitive,
whether they can make good, solid breaks to new highs is important for the
market overall as that would indicate these domestically economic sensitive
stocks are building in more gains in the future.
SOX: You can argue SOX has put in an ABCD downside pattern off the late
November/early December selling. That would suggest a leg lower off this
last move into Wednesday that was tested Thursday and Friday. If you step
back a bit more, you see the big run from September to late November, and
the recent action as working on an ABCD upside pattern. That would suggest
another downside leg to undercut the early December low to around 1180 to
form a D point. That gives you the drop from the shorter downside ABCD, and
it sets up the larger upside ABCD that would indicate a rally back up toward
the prior highs. Either way you slice it, the prognosis would be weakness
off this last move higher. That said, SOX' action in the week was solid for
the upside: gapped through the 50 day MA, rallied some more, tested the 50
day MA with a doji Friday. While the ABCD patterns make sense, you have to
watch whether SOX goes rogue and just rallies back up.
LEADERSHIP
Oil: After a great upside week Friday was a day of rest. For some. CVX,
MRO, CRZO, PTEN, DNR all more or less took a day off. Those are our current
positions, and remember, we are watching HAL for a test of its break through
the 200 day SMA that we can use. APC added another 1.9% Friday.
FAANG: Still some very nice tests ongoing. AAPL is working laterally over
the 10 day EMA. AMZN testing the 20 day EMA. GOOG showing a very nice
pullback near the 10 day EMA that we were wanting to see. FB showing a doji
at the 50 day EMA. NFLX is still a mess technically.
Financial: Friday was somewhat mushy, but on the week these stocks closed
better after some volatility on some such as GS. BAC, JPM were back and
forth as well, but were trending upside all week.
Chips: Still a very mixed group with the struggling side such as LRCX,
AMAT, XLNX. The other side is not bad, just not moving outside of INTC:
CAVM, MRVL, CCMP, SIMO. These are good setups, however, and could surge.
Drugs/Biotechs: Big names struggling, e.g. CELG, BIIB. Smaller groups look
very good. PTLA set up well. ENDP, IMGN still solid. EXEL blasted higher,
never tested; waiting to see if it tests this coming week.
Retail: Same story with good tests, e.g. ULTA, COST, and good moves
continuing, e.g. TLRD, TGT, ROST, AAP.
Machinery/Manufacturing: CAT still on an upside tear. DE as well. Man.
Manufacturing testing a bit, e.g. HON, though EMR just hit a higher high.
Transports: Truckers rebounded right back up to higher highs, e.g. KNX,
WERN, ODFL. Airlines holding their gains on the week though pausing on the
busy travel day.
China: A few still look good. YY climbing up the 10 day EMA though off a
bit Friday. BIDU looks really good -- still -- just looking for the move.
NTES testing its great move on the week.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -28.23 points (-0.11%) to close at 24754.06
Nasdaq
Stats: -5.40 points (-0.08%) to close at 6959.96
Volume: 1.54B (-14.92%)
Up Volume: 680.07M (-369.93M)
Down Volume: 813.91M (+73.84M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.3 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.61 to 1
New Highs: 82 (-23)
New Lows: 36 (-1)
S&P
Stats: -1.23 points (-0.05%) to close at 2683.34
NYSE Volume: 598.6M (-23.24%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.02 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.55 to 1
New Highs: 137 (-55)
New Lows: 26 (-16)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 9.90; +0.28
VXN: 12.54; -0.11
VXO: 8.45; +0.12
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.95; +0.11
Bulls and Bears: Pretty large drop though still easily over 60 for the
bulls. That is still in the overly optimistic range and of course the surge
Friday will bring them around again to the upside. This is a warning
indication, but not a great timing device.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3
versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1
versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0
versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5
versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7
versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5
versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
versus 19.1 versus 19.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2
versus 16.5 versus 16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3
versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9
versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75
versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6
versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.485% versus 2.484%. Crashed on the week, holding near the 200 day
SMA just as it did in late October and it managed to recover from there.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.484%
versus 2.501% versus 2.459% versus 2.398% versus 2.351% versus 2.36% versus
2.403% versus 2.389% versus 2.378% versus 2.34% versus 2.353% versus 2.381%
versus 2.363% versus 2.363 versus 2.412% versus 2.385% versus 2.326% versus
2.329% versus 2.321% versus 2.34% versus 2.354% versus 2.367% versus 2.345%
versus 2.37% versus 2.336% versus 2.375% versus 2.407% versus 2.402% versus
2.34% versus 2.326% versus 2.316% versus 2.32% versus 2.332% versus 2.349%
versus 2.358% versus 2.378% versus 2.37% versus 2.419% versus 2.456% versus
2.435% versus 2.421% versus 2.366% versus 2.383% versus 2.318% versus 2.341%
versus 2.30% versus 2.302% versus 2.275%
EUR/USD: 1.18628 versus 1.18658. Setting up for another move higher
against the dollar.
Historical: 1.18658 versus 1.18792 versus 1.18408 versus 1.17703 versus
1.1752 versus 1.17798 versus 1.18392 versus 1.17430 versus 1.17652 versus
1.1764 versus 1.17754 versus 1.17990 versus 1.18276 versus 1.18727 versus
1.18983 versus 1.18976 versus 1.18529 versus 1.18489 versus 1.1899 versus
1.19329 versus 1.18148 versus 1.17402 versus 1.1791 versus 1.1787 versus
1.1786 versus 1.1799 versus 1.16443 versus 1.16646 versus 1.16439 versus
1.15871
USD/JPY: 113.304 versus 113.363. Building for another move up, testing the
early week rally.
Historical: 113.363 versus 113.334 versus 112.870 versus 112.625 versus
112.619 versus 112.298 versus 112.639 versus 113.555 versus 113.476 versus
113.48 versus 113.473 versus 112.473 versus 112.554 versus 112.442 versus
112.190 versus 112.55 versus 112.102 versus 111.583 versus 111.244
Oil: 58.47, +0.11. Approaching the late October recovery high.
Gold: 1278.80, +8.20. Cleared the 200 day SMA and the 50 day MA's on the
way back up from the sharp selloff into the second week of December.
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
12/22/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Market reopens Tuesday after Christmas holiday. Merry Christmas!
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Indices test nicely, waiting for Santa to bring his rally next week.
- SP500, DJ30 are extended, but this action does not indicate near term
topping.
- Still many leaders testing near support and looking good if the bids
return.
- Fund outflows jump post-tax passing and the market weathers it with a
modest test. The question is whether the outflows continue.
- Many plays are ready to move if they get the nod.
The stock market is apparently waiting on Santa to show up and bring a Santa
Clause rally. After gapping nicely upside Monday, the balance of the week
was testing. With outflows post-tax reform vote at $14.5B from equity funds
there is justification to the argument that the action showed 'smart money'
leaving the market. Hey, we took some profits as well based upon a specific
set of plans.
SP500 -1.23, -0.05%
NASDAQ -5.40, -0.08%
DJ30 -28.23, -0.11%
SP400 -0.03%
RUTX -0.27%
SOX -0.05%
NASDAQ 100 -0.12%
That said, the Tuesday to Friday action was not in itself damaging to the
market. Lower volume, quite modest fades by both the indices and leading
stocks. Sure DJ30 and SP500 are quite extended, but the action this week
did not suggest they are rolling over. That may still come as the market
moves past the yearend good tidings, and we are very cognizant of that, but
you can only take the market that presents itself.
Even so, as discussed earlier this week, while large caps may find the need
to fade and consolidate more than these past four sessions, other areas of
the market are still fresh and can easily make new moves. Indeed, even the
FAANG and some other NASDAQ large names can still move: they based all
summer and broke out in late October. We still own some of these (GOOG,
INTC, AMZN) and are looking at new positions on them as the case may be.
Money definitely flowed out as the flow indicators state, but if this is as
bad as it gets, that was nothing. The key is whether the money continues to
leave or if it was just some readjustment. If net outflows continue, stocks
of course will struggle more to find a floor. Again, thus far the outflows
resulted in only modest, low volume tests, indeed very normal tests back to
the 10 day EMA for the indices and for leading stocks.
TUESDAY
We have a lot of great plays on the report, plays that are ready to go if
they get the nod from investors and traders. AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, CAVM, CUTR,
FFIV, GOOG, PTN, PTLA -- lots that look really good, and still more not
mentioned. If they show the moves we want to play the moves. Also, love
the pullback on ROKU and we are putting on a new play on it for next week.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Friday added to the long list of the week's data. Again it was good in some
respects, not so good in others. On a week that saw regional PMI's beat
expectations and housing sales surge, other reports missed, even if
slightly.
Durable Goods, preliminary November: 1.2 vs 2.1% exp vs -0.4 prior
(from -1.2)
Ex-Transports: -0.1 vs +0.4 exp vs 1.3 prior (up from 0.4%)
Business investment: -0.1 vs +0.8 October (from 0.3%). That was the
largest drop since 2016. At least the revision from October helped offset
the miss.
Personal Income, Nov: 0.3 vs 0.4 exp vs 0.4 October
Personal Spending: 0.6 vs 0.4 exp vs 0.2 Oct (from 0.3)
New Home Sales, Nov: +17.5%, the largest in crease in 25 years. Well, I
suppose those people needed some money to finance the purchases so that
explains the outflows from the market? Good gains, lock in some profits to
pay for the new digs.
Tax reform effects: More companies announcing bonuses, etc.
BAC to pay $1K bonuses to 145K employees. BBT increases its minimum pay to
$15/hour.
Expect to see a LOT more of this next week.
Also, AMGN said it will face a 6% tax issue with the new code. Expect to
see these announcements as well.
Bitcoin: Crashed through 14K overnight, then through 13K. It held, however,
at the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the prior move and started to bounce
late in the session. Ah, some trading parameters are holding in its action.
We are watching and looking for opportunities to trade this, and once
comfortable, we will share the trades with you of course.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
SP500/DJ30: Both are about the same in terms of extension with the Dow a
bit more than SP500. Both gapped higher Monday to new highs, both tested
the gain the rest of the week, showing doij at the 10 day EMA. Modest,
lower volume selling, holding near support. Thus far not flashing any
warning signs based on their trading action. That is different from their
technical position that is, as noted, extended with 4 and 5 runs up the
short term moving averages after the last 50 day EMA test.
NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100: Both are quite similar. They too gapped upside to highs
Monday then faded the move to the 10 day EMA through Friday, showing tight
doji there to close the week. NASDAQ on its fourth run up the 10/20 day
EMA, testing this week after its upside gap. No danger signals based upon
the trading action with the stronger volume rise, lower volume fade.
SP400/RUTX: Both the midcaps and small caps gapped higher Monday to the
prior highs from late November/early December and stopped there. Lateral
slides to Friday, not the fade of the large cap indices. Tax sensitive,
whether they can make good, solid breaks to new highs is important for the
market overall as that would indicate these domestically economic sensitive
stocks are building in more gains in the future.
SOX: You can argue SOX has put in an ABCD downside pattern off the late
November/early December selling. That would suggest a leg lower off this
last move into Wednesday that was tested Thursday and Friday. If you step
back a bit more, you see the big run from September to late November, and
the recent action as working on an ABCD upside pattern. That would suggest
another downside leg to undercut the early December low to around 1180 to
form a D point. That gives you the drop from the shorter downside ABCD, and
it sets up the larger upside ABCD that would indicate a rally back up toward
the prior highs. Either way you slice it, the prognosis would be weakness
off this last move higher. That said, SOX' action in the week was solid for
the upside: gapped through the 50 day MA, rallied some more, tested the 50
day MA with a doji Friday. While the ABCD patterns make sense, you have to
watch whether SOX goes rogue and just rallies back up.
LEADERSHIP
Oil: After a great upside week Friday was a day of rest. For some. CVX,
MRO, CRZO, PTEN, DNR all more or less took a day off. Those are our current
positions, and remember, we are watching HAL for a test of its break through
the 200 day SMA that we can use. APC added another 1.9% Friday.
FAANG: Still some very nice tests ongoing. AAPL is working laterally over
the 10 day EMA. AMZN testing the 20 day EMA. GOOG showing a very nice
pullback near the 10 day EMA that we were wanting to see. FB showing a doji
at the 50 day EMA. NFLX is still a mess technically.
Financial: Friday was somewhat mushy, but on the week these stocks closed
better after some volatility on some such as GS. BAC, JPM were back and
forth as well, but were trending upside all week.
Chips: Still a very mixed group with the struggling side such as LRCX,
AMAT, XLNX. The other side is not bad, just not moving outside of INTC:
CAVM, MRVL, CCMP, SIMO. These are good setups, however, and could surge.
Drugs/Biotechs: Big names struggling, e.g. CELG, BIIB. Smaller groups look
very good. PTLA set up well. ENDP, IMGN still solid. EXEL blasted higher,
never tested; waiting to see if it tests this coming week.
Retail: Same story with good tests, e.g. ULTA, COST, and good moves
continuing, e.g. TLRD, TGT, ROST, AAP.
Machinery/Manufacturing: CAT still on an upside tear. DE as well. Man.
Manufacturing testing a bit, e.g. HON, though EMR just hit a higher high.
Transports: Truckers rebounded right back up to higher highs, e.g. KNX,
WERN, ODFL. Airlines holding their gains on the week though pausing on the
busy travel day.
China: A few still look good. YY climbing up the 10 day EMA though off a
bit Friday. BIDU looks really good -- still -- just looking for the move.
NTES testing its great move on the week.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -28.23 points (-0.11%) to close at 24754.06
Nasdaq
Stats: -5.40 points (-0.08%) to close at 6959.96
Volume: 1.54B (-14.92%)
Up Volume: 680.07M (-369.93M)
Down Volume: 813.91M (+73.84M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.3 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.61 to 1
New Highs: 82 (-23)
New Lows: 36 (-1)
S&P
Stats: -1.23 points (-0.05%) to close at 2683.34
NYSE Volume: 598.6M (-23.24%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.02 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.55 to 1
New Highs: 137 (-55)
New Lows: 26 (-16)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 9.90; +0.28
VXN: 12.54; -0.11
VXO: 8.45; +0.12
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.95; +0.11
Bulls and Bears: Pretty large drop though still easily over 60 for the
bulls. That is still in the overly optimistic range and of course the surge
Friday will bring them around again to the upside. This is a warning
indication, but not a great timing device.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3
versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1
versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0
versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5
versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7
versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5
versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
versus 19.1 versus 19.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2
versus 16.5 versus 16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3
versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9
versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75
versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6
versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.485% versus 2.484%. Crashed on the week, holding near the 200 day
SMA just as it did in late October and it managed to recover from there.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.484%
versus 2.501% versus 2.459% versus 2.398% versus 2.351% versus 2.36% versus
2.403% versus 2.389% versus 2.378% versus 2.34% versus 2.353% versus 2.381%
versus 2.363% versus 2.363 versus 2.412% versus 2.385% versus 2.326% versus
2.329% versus 2.321% versus 2.34% versus 2.354% versus 2.367% versus 2.345%
versus 2.37% versus 2.336% versus 2.375% versus 2.407% versus 2.402% versus
2.34% versus 2.326% versus 2.316% versus 2.32% versus 2.332% versus 2.349%
versus 2.358% versus 2.378% versus 2.37% versus 2.419% versus 2.456% versus
2.435% versus 2.421% versus 2.366% versus 2.383% versus 2.318% versus 2.341%
versus 2.30% versus 2.302% versus 2.275%
EUR/USD: 1.18628 versus 1.18658. Setting up for another move higher
against the dollar.
Historical: 1.18658 versus 1.18792 versus 1.18408 versus 1.17703 versus
1.1752 versus 1.17798 versus 1.18392 versus 1.17430 versus 1.17652 versus
1.1764 versus 1.17754 versus 1.17990 versus 1.18276 versus 1.18727 versus
1.18983 versus 1.18976 versus 1.18529 versus 1.18489 versus 1.1899 versus
1.19329 versus 1.18148 versus 1.17402 versus 1.1791 versus 1.1787 versus
1.1786 versus 1.1799 versus 1.16443 versus 1.16646 versus 1.16439 versus
1.15871
USD/JPY: 113.304 versus 113.363. Building for another move up, testing the
early week rally.
Historical: 113.363 versus 113.334 versus 112.870 versus 112.625 versus
112.619 versus 112.298 versus 112.639 versus 113.555 versus 113.476 versus
113.48 versus 113.473 versus 112.473 versus 112.554 versus 112.442 versus
112.190 versus 112.55 versus 112.102 versus 111.583 versus 111.244
Oil: 58.47, +0.11. Approaching the late October recovery high.
Gold: 1278.80, +8.20. Cleared the 200 day SMA and the 50 day MA's on the
way back up from the sharp selloff into the second week of December.
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Sunday, December 17, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 12-16-17
* * * *
12/16/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: ROKU; SKX
Entry alerts: LH
Trailing stops: PII
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- The tax reform dance: market drops, rallies based upon a few senators.
- Stocks surge back with even NASDAQ punching a new high ticket.
- FAANG trying to rejoin leadership, small caps as well.
- Economic data back and forth but trending higher ahead of a very busy data
week.
- Rally toward yearend may have just caught on for all indices.
-
Just when you thought the tax cut news was all baked into the market you get
a couple of 'no' votes crossing over to 'yes,' even Korker's, and you get a
market recovery, indeed, surge. Thursday RUTX and SP400 sold off on renewed
worries the bill would fail when Marco Rubio and Mike Lee were said to be a
'no' and a 'leaning no.' Rubio got what he wanted and Korker's came out of
nowhere as a yes. Stocks got what they wanted and rallied to new highs on
NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, SP500, and DJ30.
SP500 23.80, 0.90%
NASDAQ 80.05, 1.17%
DJ30 143.08, 0.58%
SP400 1.05%
RUTX 1.56%
SOX 1.50%
NASDAQ 100 1.20%
VOLUME: NYSE +194%, NASDAQ +77%. Okay, it was quadruple expiration and thus
volume exploded upside.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 2.2:1, NASDAQ 2.3:1. Very passable numbers. That is
all, just passable. With 1+% moves on the growth indices you would
anticipate 3:1 or so.
NEWS/ECONOMY
On a week of back and forth economic news the market showed a lot of back
and forth itself, but the major indices did not give up their trends.
Retail Sales, November topped expectations at 0.8%, 1.0% if you take out
autos. Clothing, Food and Drink, online sales were all strong.
Core CPI rose 0.1% month/month, sliding to +1.7% year/year versus the 1.8%
prior. Oh no, no inflation. The Phillips Curve readers remain confused.
Oh, there is inflation, it is just the kind that the antiquated way we
measure price increases misses. Producers make smaller sizes but charge the
same price; no inflation as per the government measures, but you pay more
for less. Voila, inflation.
New York Empire PMI at 18.0 fell from 19.4 and was the lowest since July.
At the same time, however, the New York Fed says the economy is growing at
4+% while the Atlanta Fed says 3.3%. Three 3+% GDP quarters in a row? That
is a long time coming.
So, the argument goes, why tax cuts? Because we need tax reform to compete
in the changing world. Lower corporate and small business taxes. Get out
of states forced to subsidize other states' profligate spending by limiting
SALT deductions (and they should be phased out for everyone). After years
of struggling with no investment, businesses and individuals are finally
feeling some optimism and are spending money.
That is all based upon an expectation for change and the repeal of thousands
of regulations from the prior administration. If you remove the restraints
on investment from the increased taxes, from the ACA, and from regulation,
the US could really boom, not just put in the 'usual' 3% growth experienced
these three last quarters. That is what we usually run. In a recovery, an
unfettered economy would really surge in the 4%, 5% or better range.
As you can see, I don't buy into the 'US has run its course' economic
argument. That is the SAME theory and argument heard in the late 1970's. I
recall it clearly: Newsweek, Time and others discussing how the US economic
run was impressive but over. Demographics changed, other countries were
rising, blah, blah, blah. SAME arguments are heard today: changing
demographics, changing world economics. IT DOESN'T MATTER. If we free up
our innovators from regulations and skewed tax codes, our system has always
produced the best and the most. Communism, even the updated version China
practices, cannot do that. Socialism obviously not. It is the system that
produces the outcomes. We need to let it work. Dance with who brought you
as the old Darrell Royal phrase goes.
Thus, if we truly reform the code to let money flow where it is most needed
or where the markets believe it should go, we will come up with the new
innovations that create demand where there was none before. No one needed a
personal computer. Heard that over and over in the 1980's. Apple made one
and what do you know, everyone needed one. People were not out saying 'we
need a personal computer!' People with vision saw the future and made the
goods that would be needed. That is how you make the innovations that drive
the next technology booms and the jobs they create.
That drives economic growth not at just a 3% average, but well above that.
In the 1980's that recovery produced 4%, 5%, 7%, 11% quarterly GDP growth.
If we had not loused up so bad in the 2000's with the recovery we would have
don't it again. Instead we regulated and mandated and taxed the economy to
less than 2% growth in a recovery. As I said then, that was no recovery.
Finally, NOW we are seeing are recovery, and it is based just on
ANTICIPATION of real change.
Now you see why the markets are up on tax reform talk and trade back and
forth based upon how that talk is going. If people would only READ and
attempt to understand what the tax reform bill is going to do for them
versus listening to soundbites from the network and cable news, they would
understand that the changes proposed are truly game changing and will
overall rev up the US economy once again. We then all benefit from the
growth, the new jobs, and yes, the increased tax revenues. We have to put
aside the 'what is in it for me that I directly get?' mindset and see the
big picture just as in the early 1980's.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
NASDAQ: A long time coming (since late November), NASDAQ broke to a new
high. After the rotation from these stocks to start December, they are back
for now after a brush near the 50 day EMA. NASDAQ is on its fourth run
after the third 20 day EMA test since breaking higher off the 50 day in
mid-September. Four to five such bounces are typical off a 50 day MA test.
DJ30: New high as well, the Dow now on its fifth rotation off the short
term moving averages after the last 50 day EMA in early September. DJ30 is
12+% over the 200 day MA, getting stretched on this move. No signs of
slowing thus far.
SP500: Still moving up off the 10 day EMA as SP500 presses its 14 week run
after starting at the 50 day MA in late August. 8% over the 200 day SMA and
still on the run thanks to the financial stocks working better and the big
techs rallying.
RUTX: RUTX was all over the map to end the week. Up Wednesday off support,
broke lower Thursday and fell to the 50 day EMA. Friday back up with a
higher recovery high. Nothing like tax cuts for the small caps.
SP400: Tested again on the week, a second week of consolidation after the
higher high to end November. Looked problematic Thursday as it closed below
the 20 day EMA, but then rebounded nicely to end the week. Nice trend
remains.
SOX: struggled all week below the 50 day EMA but Friday managed a close
above that level. Still below the 50 day SMA but trying to change its
outlook a la some of the NASDAQ big names that crashed their support but
have recovered.
LEADERSHIP
FAANG: A big part of NASDAQ, these stocks improved dicey patterns to good
moves. AAPL remains in a good pattern, and rallied nicely Friday. FB is up
off the 50 day MA test put in after the initial rebound from the early
December selling. AMZN doing the same. GOOG broke to a higher high --
recovery is in. NFLX is trying, but is lagging, back at the 50 day MA
still.
Drugs/Biotechs: Money is moving into the smaller names from what we are
seeing. IMGN is starting upside for us as did ENDP, MRTX. There are many
others we are looking at.
Financial: Tested to end the week, but a good week for GS, MS. Banks are
still solid enough as they put in a modest test, e.g. BAC, JPM. TCBI is
starting to break higher, one we are looking to enter.
Retail: COST gapped on its results. While most pulled back, the patterns
remain solid. TJX, ROST, BBBY, TGT.
Semiconductors: Some good setups and moves starting. INTC jumped, and if
it continues, we move in. CAVM looks very good and MRVL has a good pattern.
LRCX, AMAT recovering but still problematic. Very mixed but improving and
some are running, e.g. CREE.
Machinery/Manufacturing: Struggled to end the week, giving up some gains,
e.g. HON, MMM, TEX.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +143.08 points (+0.58%) to close at 24651.74
Nasdaq
Stats: +80.06 points (+1.17%) to close at 6936.58
Volume: 3.5B (+76.77%)
Up Volume: 2.51B (+1.744B)
Down Volume: 929.88M (-250.12M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.31 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.25 to 1
New Highs: 133 (+40)
New Lows: 51 (-19)
S&P
Stats: +23.80 points (+0.90%) to close at 2675.81
NYSE Volume: 2.4B (+194.91%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.22 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.85 to 1
New Highs: 123 (+42)
New Lows: 32 (-17)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 9.42; -1.07
VXN: 11.88; -0.51
VXO: 7.88; -0.81
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; +0.17
Bulls and Bears: Pretty large drop though still easily over 60 for the
bulls. That is still in the overly optimistic range and of course the surge
Friday will bring them around again to the upside. This is a warning
indication, but not a great timing device.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3
versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1
versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0
versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5
versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7
versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5
versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
versus 19.1 versus 19.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2
versus 16.5 versus 16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3
versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9
versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75
versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6
versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.351% versus 2.351%. Bonds overall rallied Friday even if the 10
year was steady. Curve flattens farther.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.351%
versus 2.36% versus 2.403% versus 2.389% versus 2.378% versus 2.34% versus
2.353% versus 2.381% versus 2.363% versus 2.363 versus 2.412% versus 2.385%
versus 2.326% versus 2.329% versus 2.321% versus 2.34% versus 2.354% versus
2.367% versus 2.345% versus 2.37% versus 2.336% versus 2.375% versus 2.407%
versus 2.402% versus 2.34% versus 2.326% versus 2.316% versus 2.32% versus
2.332% versus 2.349% versus 2.358% versus 2.378% versus 2.37% versus 2.419%
versus 2.456% versus 2.435% versus 2.421% versus 2.366% versus 2.383% versus
2.318% versus 2.341% versus 2.30% versus 2.302% versus 2.275%
EUR/USD: 1.1752 versus 1.17798. Euro tried to bounce Wednesday, fell back
to the 50 day SMA on the Friday close.
Historical: 1.17798 versus 1.18392 versus 1.17430 versus 1.17652 versus
1.1764 versus 1.17754 versus 1.17990 versus 1.18276 versus 1.18727 versus
1.18983 versus 1.18976 versus 1.18529 versus 1.18489 versus 1.1899 versus
1.19329 versus 1.18148 versus 1.17402 versus 1.1791 versus 1.1787 versus
1.1786 versus 1.1799 versus 1.16443 versus 1.16646 versus 1.16439 versus
1.15871 versus 1.15954 versus 1.1609 versus 1.16092 versus 1.16575 versus
1.15480 versus 1.1644 versus 1.16091 versus 1.16330 versus 1.18163 versus
1.17570 versus 1.1759 versus 1.17798 versus 1.18476 versus 1.17995 versus
1.1771 versus
USD/JPY: 112.619 versus 112.298. Dollar fell on the week, tried to buck up
Friday over the 200 day SMA.
Historical: 112.298 versus 112.639 versus 113.555 versus 113.476 versus
113.48 versus 113.473 versus 112.473 versus 112.554 versus 112.442 versus
112.190 versus 112.55 versus 112.102 versus 111.583 versus 111.244 versus
111.523 versus 111.247 versus 112.349 versus 112.615 versus 112.124 versus
112.91 versus 112.879 versus 113.430 versus 113.615 versus 113.526 versus
113.379 versus 113.99 versus 113.723 versus 113.758 versus 114.064 versus
114.010 versus 114.010 versus 113.845 versus 113.640 versus 113.175 versus
113.675 versus 114.071 versus 113.607 versus 113.913 versus 113.31 versus
113.530 versus 112.561 versus 113.031 versus 112.21 versus 112.20 versus
111.852
Oil: 57.33, +0.29. Still working in the lateral 3 week range over the
rising 50 day MA.
Gold: 1257.90, +0.40. Rebounded on the week to test up near the 200 day
SMA Showed a doji, looks as if it will break back downside.
MONDAY
Fed hiked rates as expected, has a gentle upward slope as expected, lots
more data to come in the week ahead: Housing starts, Existing Home Sales,
GDP third, Philly Fed, Leading indicators, Personal income and spending,
Durable Goods Orders, New Homes, Michigan Sentiment. A veritable data dump.
Overall the economic data is up and down but trending up.
The big event of course will be the tax reform vote set for Tuesday as of
this writing. Friday's rally built upon 'no' votes turning 'yes,' including
Corker (Korker's). Collins and Flake are still nut jobs while McCain and
Cochran, both suffering some medical impairment, are expected to be back
next week. Pence is hanging around DC just in case.
With the move Friday and based upon our belief the tax bill passes one way
or another, most new plays are to the upside. Some more drug plays,
software, even a chip or two. The market may be extended or on the last
move higher in these runs, but the plays down below are setting up. In
other words, some areas have not rallied and are setting up good patterns to
turn off the lows; seen that before, many times.
So, let the good positions continue working and watch for the money pushing
new plays such as the small drugs and others back upside.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6936.58
Resistance:
Support:
6914 is the late November all-time high
6796 is the early November 2017
The 50 day EMA at 6737
6641 is the October high
The 2016 trendline at 6589
6477 is the September intraday high
6461 is the July 2017 prior all-time high
6450 is the early September high
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
The 200 day SMA at 6320
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6205 is the late May all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
S&P 500: Closed at 2675.81
Resistance:
Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2634
2597 is the November 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2596
2549 is the upper channel line from the March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 is the August all-time high
2480 the late August and early August highs
The 200 day SMA at 2468
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2409 is the July 2017 closing low
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 24,651.74
Resistance:
Support:
24,255-ish
The 20 day EMA at 24,136
23,602 is the early November 2017 high
23,608 is the early November high
The 50 day EMA at 23,608
22,420 is the September high
22,179 is the August 2017 all-time high
22,086 is the mid-August lower high
The 200 day SMA at 21,935
21,681is the July prior all-time high
21,638 is the July 2017 closing high
21,529 is the June 2017 high
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
12/16/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: ROKU; SKX
Entry alerts: LH
Trailing stops: PII
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- The tax reform dance: market drops, rallies based upon a few senators.
- Stocks surge back with even NASDAQ punching a new high ticket.
- FAANG trying to rejoin leadership, small caps as well.
- Economic data back and forth but trending higher ahead of a very busy data
week.
- Rally toward yearend may have just caught on for all indices.
-
Just when you thought the tax cut news was all baked into the market you get
a couple of 'no' votes crossing over to 'yes,' even Korker's, and you get a
market recovery, indeed, surge. Thursday RUTX and SP400 sold off on renewed
worries the bill would fail when Marco Rubio and Mike Lee were said to be a
'no' and a 'leaning no.' Rubio got what he wanted and Korker's came out of
nowhere as a yes. Stocks got what they wanted and rallied to new highs on
NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, SP500, and DJ30.
SP500 23.80, 0.90%
NASDAQ 80.05, 1.17%
DJ30 143.08, 0.58%
SP400 1.05%
RUTX 1.56%
SOX 1.50%
NASDAQ 100 1.20%
VOLUME: NYSE +194%, NASDAQ +77%. Okay, it was quadruple expiration and thus
volume exploded upside.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 2.2:1, NASDAQ 2.3:1. Very passable numbers. That is
all, just passable. With 1+% moves on the growth indices you would
anticipate 3:1 or so.
NEWS/ECONOMY
On a week of back and forth economic news the market showed a lot of back
and forth itself, but the major indices did not give up their trends.
Retail Sales, November topped expectations at 0.8%, 1.0% if you take out
autos. Clothing, Food and Drink, online sales were all strong.
Core CPI rose 0.1% month/month, sliding to +1.7% year/year versus the 1.8%
prior. Oh no, no inflation. The Phillips Curve readers remain confused.
Oh, there is inflation, it is just the kind that the antiquated way we
measure price increases misses. Producers make smaller sizes but charge the
same price; no inflation as per the government measures, but you pay more
for less. Voila, inflation.
New York Empire PMI at 18.0 fell from 19.4 and was the lowest since July.
At the same time, however, the New York Fed says the economy is growing at
4+% while the Atlanta Fed says 3.3%. Three 3+% GDP quarters in a row? That
is a long time coming.
So, the argument goes, why tax cuts? Because we need tax reform to compete
in the changing world. Lower corporate and small business taxes. Get out
of states forced to subsidize other states' profligate spending by limiting
SALT deductions (and they should be phased out for everyone). After years
of struggling with no investment, businesses and individuals are finally
feeling some optimism and are spending money.
That is all based upon an expectation for change and the repeal of thousands
of regulations from the prior administration. If you remove the restraints
on investment from the increased taxes, from the ACA, and from regulation,
the US could really boom, not just put in the 'usual' 3% growth experienced
these three last quarters. That is what we usually run. In a recovery, an
unfettered economy would really surge in the 4%, 5% or better range.
As you can see, I don't buy into the 'US has run its course' economic
argument. That is the SAME theory and argument heard in the late 1970's. I
recall it clearly: Newsweek, Time and others discussing how the US economic
run was impressive but over. Demographics changed, other countries were
rising, blah, blah, blah. SAME arguments are heard today: changing
demographics, changing world economics. IT DOESN'T MATTER. If we free up
our innovators from regulations and skewed tax codes, our system has always
produced the best and the most. Communism, even the updated version China
practices, cannot do that. Socialism obviously not. It is the system that
produces the outcomes. We need to let it work. Dance with who brought you
as the old Darrell Royal phrase goes.
Thus, if we truly reform the code to let money flow where it is most needed
or where the markets believe it should go, we will come up with the new
innovations that create demand where there was none before. No one needed a
personal computer. Heard that over and over in the 1980's. Apple made one
and what do you know, everyone needed one. People were not out saying 'we
need a personal computer!' People with vision saw the future and made the
goods that would be needed. That is how you make the innovations that drive
the next technology booms and the jobs they create.
That drives economic growth not at just a 3% average, but well above that.
In the 1980's that recovery produced 4%, 5%, 7%, 11% quarterly GDP growth.
If we had not loused up so bad in the 2000's with the recovery we would have
don't it again. Instead we regulated and mandated and taxed the economy to
less than 2% growth in a recovery. As I said then, that was no recovery.
Finally, NOW we are seeing are recovery, and it is based just on
ANTICIPATION of real change.
Now you see why the markets are up on tax reform talk and trade back and
forth based upon how that talk is going. If people would only READ and
attempt to understand what the tax reform bill is going to do for them
versus listening to soundbites from the network and cable news, they would
understand that the changes proposed are truly game changing and will
overall rev up the US economy once again. We then all benefit from the
growth, the new jobs, and yes, the increased tax revenues. We have to put
aside the 'what is in it for me that I directly get?' mindset and see the
big picture just as in the early 1980's.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
NASDAQ: A long time coming (since late November), NASDAQ broke to a new
high. After the rotation from these stocks to start December, they are back
for now after a brush near the 50 day EMA. NASDAQ is on its fourth run
after the third 20 day EMA test since breaking higher off the 50 day in
mid-September. Four to five such bounces are typical off a 50 day MA test.
DJ30: New high as well, the Dow now on its fifth rotation off the short
term moving averages after the last 50 day EMA in early September. DJ30 is
12+% over the 200 day MA, getting stretched on this move. No signs of
slowing thus far.
SP500: Still moving up off the 10 day EMA as SP500 presses its 14 week run
after starting at the 50 day MA in late August. 8% over the 200 day SMA and
still on the run thanks to the financial stocks working better and the big
techs rallying.
RUTX: RUTX was all over the map to end the week. Up Wednesday off support,
broke lower Thursday and fell to the 50 day EMA. Friday back up with a
higher recovery high. Nothing like tax cuts for the small caps.
SP400: Tested again on the week, a second week of consolidation after the
higher high to end November. Looked problematic Thursday as it closed below
the 20 day EMA, but then rebounded nicely to end the week. Nice trend
remains.
SOX: struggled all week below the 50 day EMA but Friday managed a close
above that level. Still below the 50 day SMA but trying to change its
outlook a la some of the NASDAQ big names that crashed their support but
have recovered.
LEADERSHIP
FAANG: A big part of NASDAQ, these stocks improved dicey patterns to good
moves. AAPL remains in a good pattern, and rallied nicely Friday. FB is up
off the 50 day MA test put in after the initial rebound from the early
December selling. AMZN doing the same. GOOG broke to a higher high --
recovery is in. NFLX is trying, but is lagging, back at the 50 day MA
still.
Drugs/Biotechs: Money is moving into the smaller names from what we are
seeing. IMGN is starting upside for us as did ENDP, MRTX. There are many
others we are looking at.
Financial: Tested to end the week, but a good week for GS, MS. Banks are
still solid enough as they put in a modest test, e.g. BAC, JPM. TCBI is
starting to break higher, one we are looking to enter.
Retail: COST gapped on its results. While most pulled back, the patterns
remain solid. TJX, ROST, BBBY, TGT.
Semiconductors: Some good setups and moves starting. INTC jumped, and if
it continues, we move in. CAVM looks very good and MRVL has a good pattern.
LRCX, AMAT recovering but still problematic. Very mixed but improving and
some are running, e.g. CREE.
Machinery/Manufacturing: Struggled to end the week, giving up some gains,
e.g. HON, MMM, TEX.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +143.08 points (+0.58%) to close at 24651.74
Nasdaq
Stats: +80.06 points (+1.17%) to close at 6936.58
Volume: 3.5B (+76.77%)
Up Volume: 2.51B (+1.744B)
Down Volume: 929.88M (-250.12M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.31 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.25 to 1
New Highs: 133 (+40)
New Lows: 51 (-19)
S&P
Stats: +23.80 points (+0.90%) to close at 2675.81
NYSE Volume: 2.4B (+194.91%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.22 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.85 to 1
New Highs: 123 (+42)
New Lows: 32 (-17)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 9.42; -1.07
VXN: 11.88; -0.51
VXO: 7.88; -0.81
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; +0.17
Bulls and Bears: Pretty large drop though still easily over 60 for the
bulls. That is still in the overly optimistic range and of course the surge
Friday will bring them around again to the upside. This is a warning
indication, but not a great timing device.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 61.9 versus 64.2
64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3
versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1
versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0
versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5
versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7
versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5
versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
Bears: 15.2 versus 15.1
15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
versus 19.1 versus 19.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2
versus 16.5 versus 16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3
versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9
versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75
versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6
versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.351% versus 2.351%. Bonds overall rallied Friday even if the 10
year was steady. Curve flattens farther.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.351%
versus 2.36% versus 2.403% versus 2.389% versus 2.378% versus 2.34% versus
2.353% versus 2.381% versus 2.363% versus 2.363 versus 2.412% versus 2.385%
versus 2.326% versus 2.329% versus 2.321% versus 2.34% versus 2.354% versus
2.367% versus 2.345% versus 2.37% versus 2.336% versus 2.375% versus 2.407%
versus 2.402% versus 2.34% versus 2.326% versus 2.316% versus 2.32% versus
2.332% versus 2.349% versus 2.358% versus 2.378% versus 2.37% versus 2.419%
versus 2.456% versus 2.435% versus 2.421% versus 2.366% versus 2.383% versus
2.318% versus 2.341% versus 2.30% versus 2.302% versus 2.275%
EUR/USD: 1.1752 versus 1.17798. Euro tried to bounce Wednesday, fell back
to the 50 day SMA on the Friday close.
Historical: 1.17798 versus 1.18392 versus 1.17430 versus 1.17652 versus
1.1764 versus 1.17754 versus 1.17990 versus 1.18276 versus 1.18727 versus
1.18983 versus 1.18976 versus 1.18529 versus 1.18489 versus 1.1899 versus
1.19329 versus 1.18148 versus 1.17402 versus 1.1791 versus 1.1787 versus
1.1786 versus 1.1799 versus 1.16443 versus 1.16646 versus 1.16439 versus
1.15871 versus 1.15954 versus 1.1609 versus 1.16092 versus 1.16575 versus
1.15480 versus 1.1644 versus 1.16091 versus 1.16330 versus 1.18163 versus
1.17570 versus 1.1759 versus 1.17798 versus 1.18476 versus 1.17995 versus
1.1771 versus
USD/JPY: 112.619 versus 112.298. Dollar fell on the week, tried to buck up
Friday over the 200 day SMA.
Historical: 112.298 versus 112.639 versus 113.555 versus 113.476 versus
113.48 versus 113.473 versus 112.473 versus 112.554 versus 112.442 versus
112.190 versus 112.55 versus 112.102 versus 111.583 versus 111.244 versus
111.523 versus 111.247 versus 112.349 versus 112.615 versus 112.124 versus
112.91 versus 112.879 versus 113.430 versus 113.615 versus 113.526 versus
113.379 versus 113.99 versus 113.723 versus 113.758 versus 114.064 versus
114.010 versus 114.010 versus 113.845 versus 113.640 versus 113.175 versus
113.675 versus 114.071 versus 113.607 versus 113.913 versus 113.31 versus
113.530 versus 112.561 versus 113.031 versus 112.21 versus 112.20 versus
111.852
Oil: 57.33, +0.29. Still working in the lateral 3 week range over the
rising 50 day MA.
Gold: 1257.90, +0.40. Rebounded on the week to test up near the 200 day
SMA Showed a doji, looks as if it will break back downside.
MONDAY
Fed hiked rates as expected, has a gentle upward slope as expected, lots
more data to come in the week ahead: Housing starts, Existing Home Sales,
GDP third, Philly Fed, Leading indicators, Personal income and spending,
Durable Goods Orders, New Homes, Michigan Sentiment. A veritable data dump.
Overall the economic data is up and down but trending up.
The big event of course will be the tax reform vote set for Tuesday as of
this writing. Friday's rally built upon 'no' votes turning 'yes,' including
Corker (Korker's). Collins and Flake are still nut jobs while McCain and
Cochran, both suffering some medical impairment, are expected to be back
next week. Pence is hanging around DC just in case.
With the move Friday and based upon our belief the tax bill passes one way
or another, most new plays are to the upside. Some more drug plays,
software, even a chip or two. The market may be extended or on the last
move higher in these runs, but the plays down below are setting up. In
other words, some areas have not rallied and are setting up good patterns to
turn off the lows; seen that before, many times.
So, let the good positions continue working and watch for the money pushing
new plays such as the small drugs and others back upside.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6936.58
Resistance:
Support:
6914 is the late November all-time high
6796 is the early November 2017
The 50 day EMA at 6737
6641 is the October high
The 2016 trendline at 6589
6477 is the September intraday high
6461 is the July 2017 prior all-time high
6450 is the early September high
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
The 200 day SMA at 6320
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6205 is the late May all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
S&P 500: Closed at 2675.81
Resistance:
Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2634
2597 is the November 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2596
2549 is the upper channel line from the March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 is the August all-time high
2480 the late August and early August highs
The 200 day SMA at 2468
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2409 is the July 2017 closing low
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 24,651.74
Resistance:
Support:
24,255-ish
The 20 day EMA at 24,136
23,602 is the early November 2017 high
23,608 is the early November high
The 50 day EMA at 23,608
22,420 is the September high
22,179 is the August 2017 all-time high
22,086 is the mid-August lower high
The 200 day SMA at 21,935
21,681is the July prior all-time high
21,638 is the July 2017 closing high
21,529 is the June 2017 high
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Sunday, December 10, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 12-9-17
* * * *
12/9/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: PII
Entry alerts: AAP; AMZN; BIIB
Trailing stops: FB
Stop alerts: TELL
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks continue the rebounds, NYSE indices off near support, NASDAQ
continuing its recovery, SOX gives up its gain.
- Jobs report decent, not great, but it is enough for stocks.
- NYSE leadership rebounds, FAANG rallies but closes off highs. All move up
together but NASDAQ, SOX face important tests that will either show buys or
retracements back lower.
-
After playing favorites the past three weeks, toward the end of last week
stocks tried their kumbaya move, i.e. all rising together versus supporting
some and forgetting others. The result was a recovery in NASDAQ and SOX,
but to varying degrees of success.
SP500 14.52, 0.55%
NASDAQ 27.24, 0.40%
DJ30 117.68, 0.49%
SP400 0.39%
RUTX 0.08%
SOX -0.50%
NASDAQ 100 0.45%
VOLUME: NYSE -10%, NASDAQ -6%. Trade backing off on a move higher, not the
best price/volume action. NYSE trade below average, NASDAQ trade below
average for the third straight session (i.e. all three upside days). Again,
not great price/volume action, particularly for NASDAQ on this bounce.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.5:1, NASDAQ 1.2:1. Nothing stellar, and indeed
somewhat lagging the day's price gains.
The NASDAQ recovery started Wednesday with a gap lower and recovery to
positive. Thursday and Friday continued the rebound with solid enough
gains, though Friday NASDAQ gapped higher then spent the day fading half the
move.
The fuel for the move? Well, the NYSE indices were perfectly set to bounce
after a short pullback to the 10 or 20 day EMA. NASDAQ and SOX were sold
off hard in that sudden rotation turn, and they were a bit overdone near
term and were rebounding through Thursday, showing some upside momentum
returning.
Friday itself saw the EU and UK strike a deal on Brexit to take it to the
'second phase.' Fears were things were not going well (they were not) and
that it might fall apart. Instead, the UK capitulated to blackmail and
struck a 'deal.'
Then there were jobs. It was a good report, not a great report, but it beat
non-farm expectations, manufacturing jobs grew solidly at 31K, wages were
decent, and the workweek improved nicely.
Non-Farms: 228K versus 190K expected versus 247K Oct (from 261K)
Manufacturing: One of the strongest months in a decade.
Workweek: 34.5 versus 34.4 expected versus 34.4 Oct. Could it finally be
that the workweek expands as companies need more work performed? Perhaps --
the PROBLEM is the ACA is still there with its 29 hour/week cap when the
mandates and taxes kick in. Until that changes, change in the workweek
remain likely muted.
Wages: 0.2% versus 0.3% expected versus -0.1% Oct. +2.5% year/year missing
the 2.7% expected.
What's with wages given that better paying manufacturing positions are
becoming more dominant? It could be a seasonal matter. Retail hires
rebounded from a weaker October given it is time to hire for holiday
demands. Those retail jobs are low pay jobs, and with that influx of jobs
that helped drag down the overall wage level.
Again, a good enough report, not great. It was more about the jobs mix and
the hours worked, and a bit of wage improvement. Important details no
doubt.
After the jobs report the futures more than doubled their gains from 49 on
DJ30 to 131 at the morning peak. As Reuben Feffer's (Ben Stiller) boss
(Alec Baldwin) in 'Along Came Polly' would say, good things.
The stock indices all started higher, but all but SP500 and DJ30 closed off
the high. Those two rallied into midday, faded into mid-afternoon, then
sprinted to the close and a higher high.
SP400 midcaps were similar but they could not find the legs for a for a last
hour sprint, instead just hanging on. RUTX peaked midday and faded the rest
of the session.
NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and SOX were similar. The first two peaked at the open
and faded the rest of the session. SOX' action was the same, but its
descent was more severe, giving up all of the gains and closing lower.
So, gains yes, but it was not an all-out, damn the torpedoes rush higher.
Most of the NYSE stocks that were up held their moves higher. Many NASDAQ
stocks, including FAANG, closed well off the high and indeed hit their high
on the open or very early and then backed off.
That can mean the recovery moves on NASDAQ and SOX are capping out. It can
also mean that after the reversal session Tuesday and the recovery into
Friday, those stocks need to take a breather after 4 days upside. After
that they can continue on upside, and if so, any little pullback can be used
to pick up positions. Indeed, Friday we took FB off with a trailing stop
because of its action, intending to move back in after it tests with some
better option positions.
Overall the session was solidly decent. High praise indeed, right? But,
after a 4-day recovery by NASDAQ showed some weariness and SOX hitting the
50 day SMA on the open and then flipping negative, solidly decent is not
bad.
NASDAQ and SOX are hardly out of the woods and free to sail higher. SOX
looks extremely problematic right now. NASDAQ, as noted, can take a short
break and continue higher, but it could also be that the rebound from the
sharp selloff has run out of gas. How the leaders respond this week tells
that tale. Again, if we get a nice, short test and a new move in NASDAQ
leaders, we are all over them with more positions.
As it was we picked up some AAP, BIIB and AMZN Friday, took some gain in
PII, and closed TELL and FB. Again, a test by FB to the 50 day MA-ish (176)
that holds and starts up is a new buy. Indeed, a GOOG test of the 20 day
EMA (1022ish), and AMZN looks really good testing the 10 day EMA, one of the
reasons we picked up new positions Friday.
Getting into the last bit of the year, NYSE indices made a test and started
to bounce, looking very good in their trends higher. SOX looks at best
iffy, while NASDAQ, if it just takes a pause or a modest pullback, could
continue with a second move off the selling and challenge for a new high.
After all, it was a nice, orderly test that still held its uptrend even with
the NASDAQ mega caps and FAANG selling sharply, then bounced back upside.
Therefore we continue to look at upside plays even if they are trades on
stocks such as HON that is in a great uptrend but in a routine test. Or
perhaps CVX that broke out then put in a great 10 day EMA last week. DIOD
is possible with a big ABCD at the 78% Fibonacci retracement.
At the same time, SOX and SMH look bearish with failing tests of the 50 day
MA from below. They can set up ABCD patterns and ultimately rally back, but
that means another downside leg in the pattern to establish a D point.
Playing that leg lower is a perfectly legitimate play and can make excellent
money, as long as you know what you are playing.
LEADERSHIP
FAANG: Up for another session then reversing in some cases to losses.
Important pause/test for them this coming week, i.e. can they keep the move
going after a breather, or was that all that was left in the tank? FB
gapped higher, started to sag so we closed the position and will see if it
tests the 50 day or some other support and resets to continue the upside
move. AAPL still looks good to move higher off its downward wedge. AMZN up
on the week, up more Friday but it too closed off its high. GOOG Gapped to
a doji Friday, its fourth upside session. It could pause a bit and test
1025ish and if that holds, that would be a good entry once again.
Financial: Bouncing after tests into midweek. BAC up off the 10 day EMA
Thursday and Friday, JPM showing the same action. GS showing the same
action and indeed we entered last week.
Transports: Same action as the financials, i.e. a test into Wednesday
followed by upside into the weekend. CSX, KSU in rails show this action.
Truckers such as JBHT, ODFL rallied from Wednesday to weekend after their
tests. Airlines showed big moves Thursday, but Friday gave up some good
gains e.g. DAL, AAL, LUV. SAVE managed to hold its gains through Friday.
Chips: Some look great, e.g. MRVL. INTC is at the 50 day MA and looks in
very good position. Others are in position for more downside from the look:
NVDA shows a bear flag. AMAT, LRCX, XLNX show this as well, but after
another drop they could put in an ABCD pattern that would suggest more
upside.
Retail: After a pullback from Tuesday, many started back up Friday, e.g.
COST, AAP, JWN, AZO. Others look ready, just did not move yet, e.g. DDS,
TGT, WMT.
Metals: STLD, RS -- US steel stocks -- ran hard into the weekend. FCX is
very interesting, particularly if it can hold a test.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +117.68 points (+0.49%) to close at 24329.16
Nasdaq
Stats: +27.24 points (+0.40%) to close at 6840.08
Volume: 1.82B (-5.7%)
Up Volume: 1.16B (-200M)
Down Volume: 616.9M (+73.55M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.22 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.75 to 1
New Highs: 97 (+21)
New Lows: 49 (-17)
S&P
Stats: +14.52 points (+0.55%) to close at 2651.50
NYSE Volume: 738.5M (-10.20%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.51 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.68 to 1
New Highs: 111 (+31)
New Lows: 29 (-19)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 9.58; -0.58
VXN: 14.42; -1.44
VXO: 8.54; -1.02
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; +0.10
Bulls and Bears: Bulls roared back from the dip a dip 3 weeks back, but
never fell below 60. That is a high level of bulls, suggesting that a lot
of money is already in the market. For now, however, the market still is
moving higher but it is noteworthy SOX is under pressure and the big name
techs, while they did bounce the past week, still have to show they can
recover the prior highs without slipping into a basing/consolidation
process. Why? Because you want the yearend rally to continue and to play
it.
Bulls: 64.2 versus 62.3
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 64.2 versus 62.3
62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6
versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5
versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2
versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00
versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5
versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7
versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7
versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8
versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0
versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.1
15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2
versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2 versus 19.1
versus 19.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2 versus 16.5
versus 16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2
versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3
versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3
versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5
versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2
versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.378% versus 2.362%. Bonds sold off hard Thursday, held the 20 day
EMA Friday. Sharp bounce, sharp drop. Now we see if bonds rally again and
drop rates.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.378%
versus 2.34% versus 2.353% versus 2.381% versus 2.363% versus 2.363 versus
2.412% versus 2.385% versus 2.326% versus 2.329% versus 2.321% versus 2.34%
versus 2.354% versus 2.367% versus 2.345% versus 2.37% versus 2.336% versus
2.375% versus 2.407% versus 2.402% versus 2.34% versus 2.326% versus 2.316%
versus 2.32% versus 2.332% versus 2.349% versus 2.358% versus 2.378% versus
2.37% versus 2.419% versus 2.456% versus 2.435% versus 2.421% versus 2.366%
versus 2.383% versus 2.318% versus 2.341% versus 2.30% versus 2.302% versus
2.275%
EUR/USD: 1.1764 versus 1.17754. Fell to the 50 day EMA and showing a doji
with tail that might bounce.
Historical: 1.17754 versus 1.17990 versus 1.18276 versus 1.18727 versus
1.18983 versus 1.18976 versus 1.18529 versus 1.18489 versus 1.1899 versus
1.19329 versus 1.18148 versus 1.17402 versus 1.1791 versus 1.1787 versus
1.1786 versus 1.1799 versus 1.16443 versus 1.16646 versus 1.16439 versus
1.15871 versus 1.15954 versus 1.1609 versus 1.16092 versus 1.16575 versus
1.15480 versus 1.1644 versus 1.16091 versus 1.16330 versus 1.18163 versus
1.17570 versus 1.1759 versus 1.17798 versus 1.18476 versus 1.17995 versus
1.1771 versus
USD/JPY: 113.48 versus 113.094. Good bounce on the week, moving through
the 50 day SMA.
Historical: 113.473 versus 112.473 versus 112.554 versus 112.442 versus
112.190 versus 112.55 versus 112.102 versus 111.583 versus 111.244 versus
111.523 versus 111.247 versus 112.349 versus 112.615 versus 112.124 versus
112.91 versus 112.879 versus 113.430 versus 113.615 versus 113.526 versus
113.379 versus 113.99 versus 113.723 versus 113.758 versus 114.064 versus
114.010 versus 114.010 versus 113.845 versus 113.640 versus 113.175 versus
113.675 versus 114.071 versus 113.607 versus 113.913 versus 113.31 versus
113.530 versus 112.561 versus 113.031 versus 112.21 versus 112.20 versus
111.852
Oil: 57.36, +0.67. Broke lower Wednesday, recovered the 20 day EMA nicely
to end the week, still trending higher.
Gold: 1248.40, -4.70. Broke through the 200 day SMA early week the really
broke lower Thursday. Friday a bit lower, showing a doji.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6840.08
Resistance:
6914 is the late November all-time high
Support:
6796 is the early November 2017
The 50 day EMA at 6705
6641 is the October high
The 2016 trendline at 6565
6477 is the September intraday high
6461 is the July 2017 prior all-time high
6450 is the early September high
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
6300 is the mid-June interim high
The 200 day SMA at 6295
6205 is the late May all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
S&P 500: Closed at 2651.50
Resistance:
Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2616
2597 is the November 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2581
2549 is the upper channel line from the March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 is the August all-time high
2480 the late August and early August highs
The 200 day SMA at 2461
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2409 is the July 2017 closing low
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 24,329.16
Resistance:
24534 is the all-time high
Support:
23,602 is the early November 2017 high
The 20 day EMA at 23,875
23,608 is the early November high
The 50 day EMA at 23,404
22,420 is the September high
22,179 is the August 2017 all-time high
22,086 is the mid-August lower high
The 200 day SMA at 21,846
21,681is the July prior all-time high
21,638 is the July 2017 closing high
21,529 is the June 2017 high
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
12/9/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: PII
Entry alerts: AAP; AMZN; BIIB
Trailing stops: FB
Stop alerts: TELL
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks continue the rebounds, NYSE indices off near support, NASDAQ
continuing its recovery, SOX gives up its gain.
- Jobs report decent, not great, but it is enough for stocks.
- NYSE leadership rebounds, FAANG rallies but closes off highs. All move up
together but NASDAQ, SOX face important tests that will either show buys or
retracements back lower.
-
After playing favorites the past three weeks, toward the end of last week
stocks tried their kumbaya move, i.e. all rising together versus supporting
some and forgetting others. The result was a recovery in NASDAQ and SOX,
but to varying degrees of success.
SP500 14.52, 0.55%
NASDAQ 27.24, 0.40%
DJ30 117.68, 0.49%
SP400 0.39%
RUTX 0.08%
SOX -0.50%
NASDAQ 100 0.45%
VOLUME: NYSE -10%, NASDAQ -6%. Trade backing off on a move higher, not the
best price/volume action. NYSE trade below average, NASDAQ trade below
average for the third straight session (i.e. all three upside days). Again,
not great price/volume action, particularly for NASDAQ on this bounce.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.5:1, NASDAQ 1.2:1. Nothing stellar, and indeed
somewhat lagging the day's price gains.
The NASDAQ recovery started Wednesday with a gap lower and recovery to
positive. Thursday and Friday continued the rebound with solid enough
gains, though Friday NASDAQ gapped higher then spent the day fading half the
move.
The fuel for the move? Well, the NYSE indices were perfectly set to bounce
after a short pullback to the 10 or 20 day EMA. NASDAQ and SOX were sold
off hard in that sudden rotation turn, and they were a bit overdone near
term and were rebounding through Thursday, showing some upside momentum
returning.
Friday itself saw the EU and UK strike a deal on Brexit to take it to the
'second phase.' Fears were things were not going well (they were not) and
that it might fall apart. Instead, the UK capitulated to blackmail and
struck a 'deal.'
Then there were jobs. It was a good report, not a great report, but it beat
non-farm expectations, manufacturing jobs grew solidly at 31K, wages were
decent, and the workweek improved nicely.
Non-Farms: 228K versus 190K expected versus 247K Oct (from 261K)
Manufacturing: One of the strongest months in a decade.
Workweek: 34.5 versus 34.4 expected versus 34.4 Oct. Could it finally be
that the workweek expands as companies need more work performed? Perhaps --
the PROBLEM is the ACA is still there with its 29 hour/week cap when the
mandates and taxes kick in. Until that changes, change in the workweek
remain likely muted.
Wages: 0.2% versus 0.3% expected versus -0.1% Oct. +2.5% year/year missing
the 2.7% expected.
What's with wages given that better paying manufacturing positions are
becoming more dominant? It could be a seasonal matter. Retail hires
rebounded from a weaker October given it is time to hire for holiday
demands. Those retail jobs are low pay jobs, and with that influx of jobs
that helped drag down the overall wage level.
Again, a good enough report, not great. It was more about the jobs mix and
the hours worked, and a bit of wage improvement. Important details no
doubt.
After the jobs report the futures more than doubled their gains from 49 on
DJ30 to 131 at the morning peak. As Reuben Feffer's (Ben Stiller) boss
(Alec Baldwin) in 'Along Came Polly' would say, good things.
The stock indices all started higher, but all but SP500 and DJ30 closed off
the high. Those two rallied into midday, faded into mid-afternoon, then
sprinted to the close and a higher high.
SP400 midcaps were similar but they could not find the legs for a for a last
hour sprint, instead just hanging on. RUTX peaked midday and faded the rest
of the session.
NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and SOX were similar. The first two peaked at the open
and faded the rest of the session. SOX' action was the same, but its
descent was more severe, giving up all of the gains and closing lower.
So, gains yes, but it was not an all-out, damn the torpedoes rush higher.
Most of the NYSE stocks that were up held their moves higher. Many NASDAQ
stocks, including FAANG, closed well off the high and indeed hit their high
on the open or very early and then backed off.
That can mean the recovery moves on NASDAQ and SOX are capping out. It can
also mean that after the reversal session Tuesday and the recovery into
Friday, those stocks need to take a breather after 4 days upside. After
that they can continue on upside, and if so, any little pullback can be used
to pick up positions. Indeed, Friday we took FB off with a trailing stop
because of its action, intending to move back in after it tests with some
better option positions.
Overall the session was solidly decent. High praise indeed, right? But,
after a 4-day recovery by NASDAQ showed some weariness and SOX hitting the
50 day SMA on the open and then flipping negative, solidly decent is not
bad.
NASDAQ and SOX are hardly out of the woods and free to sail higher. SOX
looks extremely problematic right now. NASDAQ, as noted, can take a short
break and continue higher, but it could also be that the rebound from the
sharp selloff has run out of gas. How the leaders respond this week tells
that tale. Again, if we get a nice, short test and a new move in NASDAQ
leaders, we are all over them with more positions.
As it was we picked up some AAP, BIIB and AMZN Friday, took some gain in
PII, and closed TELL and FB. Again, a test by FB to the 50 day MA-ish (176)
that holds and starts up is a new buy. Indeed, a GOOG test of the 20 day
EMA (1022ish), and AMZN looks really good testing the 10 day EMA, one of the
reasons we picked up new positions Friday.
Getting into the last bit of the year, NYSE indices made a test and started
to bounce, looking very good in their trends higher. SOX looks at best
iffy, while NASDAQ, if it just takes a pause or a modest pullback, could
continue with a second move off the selling and challenge for a new high.
After all, it was a nice, orderly test that still held its uptrend even with
the NASDAQ mega caps and FAANG selling sharply, then bounced back upside.
Therefore we continue to look at upside plays even if they are trades on
stocks such as HON that is in a great uptrend but in a routine test. Or
perhaps CVX that broke out then put in a great 10 day EMA last week. DIOD
is possible with a big ABCD at the 78% Fibonacci retracement.
At the same time, SOX and SMH look bearish with failing tests of the 50 day
MA from below. They can set up ABCD patterns and ultimately rally back, but
that means another downside leg in the pattern to establish a D point.
Playing that leg lower is a perfectly legitimate play and can make excellent
money, as long as you know what you are playing.
LEADERSHIP
FAANG: Up for another session then reversing in some cases to losses.
Important pause/test for them this coming week, i.e. can they keep the move
going after a breather, or was that all that was left in the tank? FB
gapped higher, started to sag so we closed the position and will see if it
tests the 50 day or some other support and resets to continue the upside
move. AAPL still looks good to move higher off its downward wedge. AMZN up
on the week, up more Friday but it too closed off its high. GOOG Gapped to
a doji Friday, its fourth upside session. It could pause a bit and test
1025ish and if that holds, that would be a good entry once again.
Financial: Bouncing after tests into midweek. BAC up off the 10 day EMA
Thursday and Friday, JPM showing the same action. GS showing the same
action and indeed we entered last week.
Transports: Same action as the financials, i.e. a test into Wednesday
followed by upside into the weekend. CSX, KSU in rails show this action.
Truckers such as JBHT, ODFL rallied from Wednesday to weekend after their
tests. Airlines showed big moves Thursday, but Friday gave up some good
gains e.g. DAL, AAL, LUV. SAVE managed to hold its gains through Friday.
Chips: Some look great, e.g. MRVL. INTC is at the 50 day MA and looks in
very good position. Others are in position for more downside from the look:
NVDA shows a bear flag. AMAT, LRCX, XLNX show this as well, but after
another drop they could put in an ABCD pattern that would suggest more
upside.
Retail: After a pullback from Tuesday, many started back up Friday, e.g.
COST, AAP, JWN, AZO. Others look ready, just did not move yet, e.g. DDS,
TGT, WMT.
Metals: STLD, RS -- US steel stocks -- ran hard into the weekend. FCX is
very interesting, particularly if it can hold a test.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +117.68 points (+0.49%) to close at 24329.16
Nasdaq
Stats: +27.24 points (+0.40%) to close at 6840.08
Volume: 1.82B (-5.7%)
Up Volume: 1.16B (-200M)
Down Volume: 616.9M (+73.55M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.22 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.75 to 1
New Highs: 97 (+21)
New Lows: 49 (-17)
S&P
Stats: +14.52 points (+0.55%) to close at 2651.50
NYSE Volume: 738.5M (-10.20%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.51 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.68 to 1
New Highs: 111 (+31)
New Lows: 29 (-19)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 9.58; -0.58
VXN: 14.42; -1.44
VXO: 8.54; -1.02
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; +0.10
Bulls and Bears: Bulls roared back from the dip a dip 3 weeks back, but
never fell below 60. That is a high level of bulls, suggesting that a lot
of money is already in the market. For now, however, the market still is
moving higher but it is noteworthy SOX is under pressure and the big name
techs, while they did bounce the past week, still have to show they can
recover the prior highs without slipping into a basing/consolidation
process. Why? Because you want the yearend rally to continue and to play
it.
Bulls: 64.2 versus 62.3
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 64.2 versus 62.3
62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6
versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5
versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2
versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00
versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5
versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7
versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7
versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8
versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0
versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.1
15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2
versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2 versus 19.1
versus 19.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2 versus 16.5
versus 16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2
versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3
versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3
versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5
versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2
versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.378% versus 2.362%. Bonds sold off hard Thursday, held the 20 day
EMA Friday. Sharp bounce, sharp drop. Now we see if bonds rally again and
drop rates.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.378%
versus 2.34% versus 2.353% versus 2.381% versus 2.363% versus 2.363 versus
2.412% versus 2.385% versus 2.326% versus 2.329% versus 2.321% versus 2.34%
versus 2.354% versus 2.367% versus 2.345% versus 2.37% versus 2.336% versus
2.375% versus 2.407% versus 2.402% versus 2.34% versus 2.326% versus 2.316%
versus 2.32% versus 2.332% versus 2.349% versus 2.358% versus 2.378% versus
2.37% versus 2.419% versus 2.456% versus 2.435% versus 2.421% versus 2.366%
versus 2.383% versus 2.318% versus 2.341% versus 2.30% versus 2.302% versus
2.275%
EUR/USD: 1.1764 versus 1.17754. Fell to the 50 day EMA and showing a doji
with tail that might bounce.
Historical: 1.17754 versus 1.17990 versus 1.18276 versus 1.18727 versus
1.18983 versus 1.18976 versus 1.18529 versus 1.18489 versus 1.1899 versus
1.19329 versus 1.18148 versus 1.17402 versus 1.1791 versus 1.1787 versus
1.1786 versus 1.1799 versus 1.16443 versus 1.16646 versus 1.16439 versus
1.15871 versus 1.15954 versus 1.1609 versus 1.16092 versus 1.16575 versus
1.15480 versus 1.1644 versus 1.16091 versus 1.16330 versus 1.18163 versus
1.17570 versus 1.1759 versus 1.17798 versus 1.18476 versus 1.17995 versus
1.1771 versus
USD/JPY: 113.48 versus 113.094. Good bounce on the week, moving through
the 50 day SMA.
Historical: 113.473 versus 112.473 versus 112.554 versus 112.442 versus
112.190 versus 112.55 versus 112.102 versus 111.583 versus 111.244 versus
111.523 versus 111.247 versus 112.349 versus 112.615 versus 112.124 versus
112.91 versus 112.879 versus 113.430 versus 113.615 versus 113.526 versus
113.379 versus 113.99 versus 113.723 versus 113.758 versus 114.064 versus
114.010 versus 114.010 versus 113.845 versus 113.640 versus 113.175 versus
113.675 versus 114.071 versus 113.607 versus 113.913 versus 113.31 versus
113.530 versus 112.561 versus 113.031 versus 112.21 versus 112.20 versus
111.852
Oil: 57.36, +0.67. Broke lower Wednesday, recovered the 20 day EMA nicely
to end the week, still trending higher.
Gold: 1248.40, -4.70. Broke through the 200 day SMA early week the really
broke lower Thursday. Friday a bit lower, showing a doji.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6840.08
Resistance:
6914 is the late November all-time high
Support:
6796 is the early November 2017
The 50 day EMA at 6705
6641 is the October high
The 2016 trendline at 6565
6477 is the September intraday high
6461 is the July 2017 prior all-time high
6450 is the early September high
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
6300 is the mid-June interim high
The 200 day SMA at 6295
6205 is the late May all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
S&P 500: Closed at 2651.50
Resistance:
Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2616
2597 is the November 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2581
2549 is the upper channel line from the March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 is the August all-time high
2480 the late August and early August highs
The 200 day SMA at 2461
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2409 is the July 2017 closing low
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 24,329.16
Resistance:
24534 is the all-time high
Support:
23,602 is the early November 2017 high
The 20 day EMA at 23,875
23,608 is the early November high
The 50 day EMA at 23,404
22,420 is the September high
22,179 is the August 2017 all-time high
22,086 is the mid-August lower high
The 200 day SMA at 21,846
21,681is the July prior all-time high
21,638 is the July 2017 closing high
21,529 is the June 2017 high
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Saturday, December 02, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 12-2-17
* * * *
12/2/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: DEPO; SM; PTLA
Trailing stops: ACLS
Stop alerts: QRVO
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- An avoidable firestorm: ABC misreporting aids a huge selloff.
- Stocks recover as the dip is bought, but close negative.
- Senate tax sausage making hard for the market to watch, ABC broke the
back -- for Friday.
- Afterhours ABC changes the crux of its story, Senate passes tax reform
bill
- Rotation produces some new potential leaders.
- FAANG, other NASDAQ large caps at an important juncture. A September-like
recovery or not?
- Perhaps a 'normal' market week ahead with 'just' the jobs report?
-
Anything But Correct. Altogether Biased Coverage. American Broadcasting
Charlatans. ABC and its reporter Brian Ross should be held liable for
covering any losses any investor or trader suffered Friday. During the
session Mr. Ross reported that 'candidate Trump' ordered Michael Flynn to
contact Russia. On the heels of Flynn being charged and pleading guilty in
a deal that was dependent upon 'others being prosecuted,' that news appeared
to jeopardize Trump and his administration.
Stocks dove lower with DJ30 -350 points on the low, NASDAQ off a whopping
136 points (2%), RUTX -3%. That sent DJ30 to the 10 day EMA, NASDAQ below
the 20 day EMA, and RUTX all the way to the 50 day EMA.
Then the market seemed to sense something was not right. Bids returned,
massive recoveries ensued, and while all of the indices still closed
negative on the day, the losses were pikers compared to the bloodletting
that peaked at 11:30ET.
SP500 -5.36, -0.20%
NASDAQ -26.38, -0.38%
DJ30 -40.76, -0.17%
SP400 -0.24%
RUTX -0.46%
SOX -1.09%
NASDAQ 100 -0.43%
VOLUME: NYSE -33%, NASDAQ -6.5%. Lower trade yes, but still impressive
trade on a rebound. Volume jumped on the ABC report but was strong as well
as stocks bottomed and reversed the 40 minutes after hitting bottom. Again,
there was buying once the kneejerk, algo-driven headline reaction was
thought through.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.5:1. Again NASDAQ lags the NYSE
indices.
Late Friday, hours after the financial markets closed for the weekend, ABC
put Brian Ross live on the air. To give further damning detail to his prior
report? NO! To RETRACT the single most important aspect of the report, the
one piece of information that differed from what we all knew for more than a
year: it was not candidate Trump or anyone in his administration, but the
newly elected administration that sought contact with Russia. Specifically,
Ross changed his earlier report to say "candidate Trump asked him [Flynn]
during the campaign to FIND WAYS to repair relations with Russia and other
hot spots, and then after the election, the President-elect asked him, told
him to CONTACT Russia on issues, including working together to fight ISIS."
Oh, just a small oversight there. Therefore, when the balance of the
reporting Friday is reckoned and measured, nothing new was added to what was
known 12 months ago, i.e. that the newly elected administration, as is the
case for all new administrations, started reaching out and making contacts
with key members of other governments so they could hit the ground running
on inauguration day. How shocking. How against the interest of Americans.
Just as Presidents Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, etc. acted against the
interest of Americans when they, as Presidents-elect, reached out to foreign
governments to get the relations started in advance of taking office. We
were all grateful they did and felt it was part of getting ready for the
most important job in the world.
Goodness, we have learned in the intervening months that Russia,
post-election, was buying Facebook ads to try and sew seeds of discord in
the US to make the Trump administration LESS effective. It saw in Trump a
Ronald Reagan figure that would not put up with BS, and Russia is,
shockingly I know, trying to get ahead of the curve, actually using what it
learned from the history of the USSR dealing with a personality such as
Trump's. It would appear that Russia has been successful in that endeavor
given how readily US citizens are to attack one another.
Back to the markets. They dove on a combination of stories regarding the
administration that appeared worse than they were. On top of that, they
were already rattled by what appeared to be a sure thing tax reform bill in
the Senate get scuttled when more utterly BS Senate rules got in the way of
common sense. In reality, it was a ploy by the Corkscrew/Korkers sub-party
of newly found anti-deficit religious zealots -- reformed -- to keep tax
reform from passing.
That was a powerful 1-2-3 punch to the market psyche, and the already
rattled indices fell all over themselves. But, as noted, the sense was the
reporting was not correct. Also, a few senators, including Johnson (got
some pass-through amendments he wanted), Collins (got whatever she wanted;
still cannot figure out what that was), gave thumbs up to the tax bill.
Stocks then recovered and pared the losses as noted.
On the heels of the Abysmal Background Checking network's
retraction-but-not-called-retraction of its story, the Senate passed its
bill late, late night. Not sure what the heck is in it -- heard they were
handwriting parts of it on scraps of paper -- but it is passed and now the
House and Senate go to the next level of war, reconciliation. It is
apparently beneficial enough for CNBC to print a story titled "This tax plan
will spark an investment boom that will benefit everyone." Of course it was
penned by Larry Kudlow . . .
So, after Mr. Toad's wild ride induced as a result of some very
self-centered and goal-seeking reports and actions, the market got what it
anticipated: the senate passing a tax reform package. It may not have
anticipated the ABC retraction, but it also didn't anticipate the ABC
fabricated or at the very least poorly, poorly fact-checked story. Usually
when you rush to judgment you end up being the more harshly judged.
Now we see how the markets react to everything being pretty status quo
before all of the running in place that occurred in the very short span of
Friday. You also watch to see if the big NASDAQ stocks pull a September,
and after a sharp down session as on Wednesday, they get purchased yet again
along with other stocks. They based during the summer, broke out of new
bases and rallied, tested, and started back up when all of this started
hitting. Again, will they resume the breakout moves after this pretty big
Wednesday speed bump?
Don't forget about the semiconductors either. Tough week with a sharp drop,
but as noted in last weekend's report, they were extended with a long run up
the 10 day EMA and no inkling of a 50 day EMA test since last touched in
late August. Well, they have not put in that touch, falling to it on
Wednesday, holding it Thursday, undercutting it Friday, then recovering with
a big doji with tail right on top of the 50 day. Quite the shakeout move.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SOX: Let's start with SOX. A leader upside turned leader downside. 22%
above its 200 day SMA on the high heading into last week. That was
corrected as of Friday all the way back to 11% at the low. Halved the
extension. Now, if the uptrend is to hold what should happen is a new
bounce and new rotation up the 10 and 20 day EMA. Stocks and indices will
breakout, rally up the 10/20 day EMA 4 to 5 rotations or bounces, then
correct back to the 50 day MA where they reset the move and do it again.
SOX broke out of a 4 month base in mid-September and rallied up the 10 day
EMA afterward, putting in the full 5 bounces. It ran out of gas and fell,
but it has hit the 50 day, showing a big doji with tail. Again, if the move
is going to continue with some strength, it should hold and start a new move
here.
NASDAQ: A lot of headlines on the week because the mega caps and FAANG were
down. The chart, however, shows a 20 day EMA test with an intraday
undercut, just as it did in late October and mid-November on the first and
second tests of that level after the mid-September breakout from its late
July to mid-September base. As with SOX, it has another bounce or two ahead
of it if the status quo remains, and as of the Anything goes Broadcast
Crapola story retraction and curmudgeon-defying senate passage of a tax
reform bill (and there is truly some tax reform in that bill), the status
quo remains.
DJ30: Yes the Dow was off 350 points Friday, but it was up 330+ points
Thursday. Moreover, it recovered 310 of the lost points intraday. Huge
surge higher on the week, even more extended (11%) over the 200 day SMA. It
CAN get to 15% extension before it starts to struggle, but that is rarer.
As you can see, it was primed for a pullback Friday with the ease in which
it gave up the Thursday gains. Again, however, it did recover.
RUTX: What a new breakout move Tuesday that coasted a bit higher into
Thursday. Then the Friday jolt sent the small caps all the way back to the
50 day EMA intraday. With the last-minute tax bill blockade attempts that
paired 'I have always been a deficit hawk since Trump was elected' Corkster
with his buddy Schumer when they aided the prior administration more than
doubling the debt, it is no wonder the tax sensitive small caps seized up
and plummeted. They too recovered vast amounts of lost ground to close, and
leave themselves in still good position to continue onward toward the 127%
Fibonacci extension at 1558 (closed at 1537) after bouncing off the 38%
Fibonacci retracement mid-November.
SP400: Massive Friday drop as well, tapping the 20 day EMA from a new
all-time high Thursday. Then the same massive recovery to hold its
breakout. Breakout, shakeout, all in 24 hours. Impressive breakout indeed,
and a test of the move is not at all abnormal.
SP500: New high Thursday, tested almost to the 20 day EMA Friday, recovered
to almost flat by the close. Broke out on a new leg higher 8 sessions back,
very strong Tuesday to Thursday move, and as with SP400, a test would not be
out of the question.
LEADERSHIP
Friday some of the recent leaders in retail, manufacturing, transportation
tested their moves. They recovered off the lows, but were due for a bit of
a test after at least 3 good sessions upside. May get some entries out of
them this week.
Retail: Some testing after good moves though COST, M added gains. JWN,
ROST, TGT put in modest tests while WMT continues its 2 week lateral flag.
HD strong all week. They paused some but for most they held their gains
nicely.
Transports: Most paused. Rails saw KSU, NSC test, but CSX continued its
break higher. Some interesting tests in trucking, e.g. JBHT after a good
break higher. WERN barely tested, same with ODFL. Airlines tested, barely
as well: LUV, SAVE. The DJ20 new high along with the DJ30 new high still
has Dow Theory working even as many with fear of flying forget about that
confirmation indication simply because they have a fear of flying.
Drugs/Biotechs/Healthcare: Trying to come around again. PFE broke higher
early week, MYL at the end of the week. Generics bounced on AMZN showing
interest. Healthcare plans also moved with UNH surging early week. LH is
testing the huge Wednesday move and may give us the entry after a bit more
testing. VSTM looks good even though it gave up its gap higher Friday.
PTLA gave us the entry. IMGN and some other smaller names are interesting.
Manufacturing/Machinery: MMM gave us the target Thursday, took Friday off.
HON surged on the week, also took Friday off. CAT showed a solid new break
higher Thursday, did not give it back.
Oil: Some good moves continued and started. SM popped Friday and we moved
in. SN continued its Thursday move, indeed accelerating the surge for us.
CVX, XOM and other big names paused some Friday after their strong Wednesday
moves. PTEN, SWN may be setting up for new moves or breaks higher,
respectively.
Financial; Strong Tuesday and Wednesday moves, then took Thursday and Friday
as personal days. Great recovery moves and we will see if we can get any
new entries off this. TCBI testing nicely as is STT. BAC looks great still
and C could now give the entry.
Semiconductors: With SOX SMH showing a possible shakeout at the 50 day MA,
some stocks should be setting up after a rough week. LRCX and AMAT are
still well below the 50 day EMA and at the 78% and 61% Fibonacci
retracement, respectively. More work to be done to form a pattern there.
AVGO held up well, reaching lower but recovering to the 20 day EMA to close
yet again. QRVO reached down toward the 200 day SMA but did manage a
recovery; work to do now to get set back up. INTC looks good. CAVM as
well. Many, however, have a lot of work to do to rebuild patterns.
FAANG: Have to look at these of course. Still in the hanging on stage
after the Wednesday drop, similar to September. FB holding the 50 day MA
with a pair of doji. AMZN holding the 10 day EMA in a test. AAPL trying to
hang on at the 20 day EMA. NFLX broke the 50 day Wednesday and sank more
from there. GOOG all the way to tap the 50 day EMA on the Friday low,
modest rebound. Okay, at least it is in great position to bounce.
Software: Took on water Wednesday and Thursday, but some recovered. MSFT
was never in jeopardy. SYNT still working well. VMW announced earnings and
jumped off the 50 day MA. BLKB took a trip to the 50 day MA on the Friday
low; will see if it can make something of the fast test. FFIV paused Friday
but gave us the target Thursday. CRM fell Wednesday, but it might pull off
a hold and new setup.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -40.76 points (-0.17%) to close at 24231.59
Nasdaq
Stats: -26.39 points (-0.38%) to close at 6847.59
Volume: 2.29B (-6.53%)
Up Volume: 965.05M (-514.95M)
Down Volume: 1.29B (+360.44M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.54 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.13 to 1
New Highs: 103 (-179)
New Lows: 43 (+9)
S&P
Stats: -5.36 points (-0.20%) to close at 2642.22
NYSE Volume: 1B (-33.33%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.06 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.38 to 1
New Highs: 151 (-147)
New Lows: 31 (-6)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.43; +0.15
VXN: 16.57; +0.64
VXO: 10.86; +0.50
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.78; -0.07
Bulls and Bears: Bulls dipped two weeks back then recovered this past week
though still off the recent peaks. It will be interesting to see how the
DJ30 versus NASDAQ/SOX will play out this past week. Bears dipped but still
hold a more elevated level, though still way off the highs. Still very high
bullish reading.
Bulls: 62.3 versus 61.5
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.4
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 62.3 versus 61.5
61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4
versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5
versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8
versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8
versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7
versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4
versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8
versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8
versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9
versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.4
15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1
versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2 versus 19.1 versus 19.1
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2 versus 16.5 versus 16.7
versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3
versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5
versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3
versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6
versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.363% versus 2.412%. Given the Friday uncertainty, bonds surged as
a safe haven play. Still below the late November highs, but a big bounce
off the 50 day EMA.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.363
versus 2.412% versus 2.385% versus 2.326% versus 2.329% versus 2.321% versus
2.34% versus 2.354% versus 2.367% versus 2.345% versus 2.37% versus 2.336%
versus 2.375% versus 2.407% versus 2.402% versus 2.34% versus 2.326% versus
2.316% versus 2.32% versus 2.332% versus 2.349% versus 2.358% versus 2.378%
versus 2.37% versus 2.419% versus 2.456% versus 2.435% versus 2.421% versus
2.366% versus 2.383% versus 2.318% versus 2.341% versus 2.30% versus 2.302%
versus 2.275% versus 2.321% versus 2.345% versus 2.345% versus 2.361% versus
2.348% versus 2.327% versus 2.326% versus 2.341% versus 2.339% versus 2.312%
versus 2.307% versus 2.236% versus 2.222% versus 2.253% versus 2.276% versus
2.273% versus 2.246% versus 2.234% versus 2.201% versus 2.186% versus 2.19%
versus 2.167% versus 2.134% versus 2.042%
EUR/USD: 1.18983 versus 1.18976. Working laterally over the 10 day EMA,
testing the mid-November break higher off the 50 day EMA.
Historical: 1.18976 versus 1.18529 versus 1.18489 versus 1.1899 versus
1.19329 versus 1.18148 versus 1.17402 versus 1.1791 versus 1.1787 versus
1.1786 versus 1.1799 versus 1.16443 versus 1.16646 versus 1.16439 versus
1.15871 versus 1.15954 versus 1.1609 versus 1.16092 versus 1.16575 versus
1.15480 versus 1.1644 versus 1.16091 versus 1.16330 versus 1.18163 versus
1.17570 versus 1.1759 versus 1.17798 versus 1.18476 versus 1.17995 versus
1.1771 versus 1.17932 versus 1.1823 versus 1.1834 versus 1.18662 versus
1.1813 versus 1.17460 versus 1.17352 versus 1.17100 versus 1.1754 versus
1.17676 versus 1.17315 versus 1.1812 versus 1.17817 versus 1.1746 versus
1.17852 versus 1.18540 versus 1.19476 versus 1.19420 versus 1.19420 versus
1.19954 versus 1.19436 versus 1.1918 versus 1.1874 versus 1.19706 versus
1.19551 versus 1.20379 versus 1.2025 versus 1.19258 versus 1.19143 versus
1.18621 versus 1.19131 versus 1.18938 versus 1.19731 versus 1.19678 versus
1.19212 versus 1.18 versus 1.17516 versus 1.1813 versus 1.17595 versus
1.17107 versus 1.17812 versus 1.17445 versus 1.17751 versus 1.18216 versus
1.17652
USD/JPY: 112.190 versus 112.55. Gave back some ground in the turmoil, but
bounced off an intraday 200 day SMA test, holding much of the week's bounce
off that support.
Historical: 112.55 versus 112.102 versus 111.583 versus 111.244 versus
111.523 versus 111.247 versus 112.349 versus 112.615 versus 112.124 versus
112.91 versus 112.879 versus 113.430 versus 113.615 versus 113.526 versus
113.379 versus 113.99 versus 113.723 versus 113.758 versus 114.064 versus
114.010 versus 114.010 versus 113.845 versus 113.640 versus 113.175 versus
113.675 versus 114.071 versus 113.607 versus 113.913 versus 113.31 versus
113.530 versus 112.561 versus 113.031 versus 112.21 versus 112.20 versus
111.852 versus 112.25 versus 112.413 versus 112.41 versus 112.700 versus
112.653 versus 112.818 versus 112.79 versus 112.667 versus 112.716 versus
112.442 versus 112.86 versus 112.289 versus 111.649 versus 1.12125 versus
111.995 versus 112.454 versus 111.559 versus 111.435 versus 110.846 versus
110.01 versus 110.62 versus 110.216 versus 109.434 versus 107.847 versus
108.444
Oil: 58.36, +0.96. Solid bounce Friday after a Monday to Thursday pullback
to the 10 day EMA. OPEC and Russia extended the production cuts through
then end of 2018.
Gold: 1282.30, +5.60. Still having a hard time getting off the 200 day
SMA.
MONDAY
Hey, a jobs report is due out this coming week. Back to normal perhaps in
terms of the market and the news flow? What a hectic Friday, but we here
were happy, at least for now, we stayed the course Friday. NASDAQ and FAANG
still have to show if this was a 'September thing' type of move Wednesday,
but they recovered well enough Friday. Regret? Perhaps should have bought
in with a few positions on that Friday morning selloff.
That said, the market is being called too high by most quarters, and the
bulls/bears supports those calls. Thing is, the market can become more and
more extended before it breaks. Last week certainly shows volatility, at
least in some leadership areas, but others surged. Moreover, this market
has shown that certain groups get sold quickly and then recovery quickly.
That is one of the key areas we are watching to start the week, e.g. FAANG
and others in software, chips. Chips suffered a lot of damage, however; may
take them time to come back around and set up.
There is money moving into new areas and some are testing; will see what
they produce in terms of entries. Some leaders were hit as noted, but some
are already very interesting for new positions. Always worth a look.
At the same time there are downside plays, and given the sentiment and some
of the volatility you have to look at some of those plays. This past week
we had some, but the opening moves were extremely quick; always best to play
the test that fails. So, we look at some of those just in case.
Big picture: stocks are extended, but it is a time of year runs are often
made. Some of the big names broke out of bases, rallied and tested -- then
Wednesday to Friday tested them more. IF there is a mindset to rally to
yearend those tests may make them intriguing to those wanting to play a
yearend move. We will see. The indices are all in uptrends, there were 50
day EMA tests by SOX and even RUTX intraday. If the trends are to continue,
you would anticipate bounces off the 50 day with the resumption of the moves
up the 10/20 day EMA to follow. Again, it all depends upon if the bids
remain and want to carry stocks higher to yearend.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6847.59
Resistance:
6914 is the late November all-time high
Support:
6796 is the early November 2017
The 20 day EMA at 6802
The 50 day EMA at 6685
6641 is the October high
6477 is the September intraday high
The 2016 trendline at 6463
6461 is the July 2017 prior all-time high
6450 is the early September high
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
6300 is the mid-June interim high
The 200 day SMA at 6271
6205 is the late May all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
S&P 500: Closed at 2642.22
Resistance:
Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2601
2597 is the November 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2569
2544 is the upper channel line from the March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 is the August all-time high
2480 the late August and early August highs
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
The 200 day SMA at 2454
2409 is the July 2017 closing low
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 24,231.59
Resistance:
Support:
23,602 is the early November 2017 high
The 20 day EMA at 23,642
The 50 day EMA at 23,221
22,420 is the September high
22,179 is the August 2017 all-time high
22,086 is the mid-August lower high
The 200 day SMA at 21,759
21,681is the July prior all-time high
21,638 is the July 2017 closing high
21,529 is the June 2017 high
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
12/2/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: DEPO; SM; PTLA
Trailing stops: ACLS
Stop alerts: QRVO
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- An avoidable firestorm: ABC misreporting aids a huge selloff.
- Stocks recover as the dip is bought, but close negative.
- Senate tax sausage making hard for the market to watch, ABC broke the
back -- for Friday.
- Afterhours ABC changes the crux of its story, Senate passes tax reform
bill
- Rotation produces some new potential leaders.
- FAANG, other NASDAQ large caps at an important juncture. A September-like
recovery or not?
- Perhaps a 'normal' market week ahead with 'just' the jobs report?
-
Anything But Correct. Altogether Biased Coverage. American Broadcasting
Charlatans. ABC and its reporter Brian Ross should be held liable for
covering any losses any investor or trader suffered Friday. During the
session Mr. Ross reported that 'candidate Trump' ordered Michael Flynn to
contact Russia. On the heels of Flynn being charged and pleading guilty in
a deal that was dependent upon 'others being prosecuted,' that news appeared
to jeopardize Trump and his administration.
Stocks dove lower with DJ30 -350 points on the low, NASDAQ off a whopping
136 points (2%), RUTX -3%. That sent DJ30 to the 10 day EMA, NASDAQ below
the 20 day EMA, and RUTX all the way to the 50 day EMA.
Then the market seemed to sense something was not right. Bids returned,
massive recoveries ensued, and while all of the indices still closed
negative on the day, the losses were pikers compared to the bloodletting
that peaked at 11:30ET.
SP500 -5.36, -0.20%
NASDAQ -26.38, -0.38%
DJ30 -40.76, -0.17%
SP400 -0.24%
RUTX -0.46%
SOX -1.09%
NASDAQ 100 -0.43%
VOLUME: NYSE -33%, NASDAQ -6.5%. Lower trade yes, but still impressive
trade on a rebound. Volume jumped on the ABC report but was strong as well
as stocks bottomed and reversed the 40 minutes after hitting bottom. Again,
there was buying once the kneejerk, algo-driven headline reaction was
thought through.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.5:1. Again NASDAQ lags the NYSE
indices.
Late Friday, hours after the financial markets closed for the weekend, ABC
put Brian Ross live on the air. To give further damning detail to his prior
report? NO! To RETRACT the single most important aspect of the report, the
one piece of information that differed from what we all knew for more than a
year: it was not candidate Trump or anyone in his administration, but the
newly elected administration that sought contact with Russia. Specifically,
Ross changed his earlier report to say "candidate Trump asked him [Flynn]
during the campaign to FIND WAYS to repair relations with Russia and other
hot spots, and then after the election, the President-elect asked him, told
him to CONTACT Russia on issues, including working together to fight ISIS."
Oh, just a small oversight there. Therefore, when the balance of the
reporting Friday is reckoned and measured, nothing new was added to what was
known 12 months ago, i.e. that the newly elected administration, as is the
case for all new administrations, started reaching out and making contacts
with key members of other governments so they could hit the ground running
on inauguration day. How shocking. How against the interest of Americans.
Just as Presidents Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, etc. acted against the
interest of Americans when they, as Presidents-elect, reached out to foreign
governments to get the relations started in advance of taking office. We
were all grateful they did and felt it was part of getting ready for the
most important job in the world.
Goodness, we have learned in the intervening months that Russia,
post-election, was buying Facebook ads to try and sew seeds of discord in
the US to make the Trump administration LESS effective. It saw in Trump a
Ronald Reagan figure that would not put up with BS, and Russia is,
shockingly I know, trying to get ahead of the curve, actually using what it
learned from the history of the USSR dealing with a personality such as
Trump's. It would appear that Russia has been successful in that endeavor
given how readily US citizens are to attack one another.
Back to the markets. They dove on a combination of stories regarding the
administration that appeared worse than they were. On top of that, they
were already rattled by what appeared to be a sure thing tax reform bill in
the Senate get scuttled when more utterly BS Senate rules got in the way of
common sense. In reality, it was a ploy by the Corkscrew/Korkers sub-party
of newly found anti-deficit religious zealots -- reformed -- to keep tax
reform from passing.
That was a powerful 1-2-3 punch to the market psyche, and the already
rattled indices fell all over themselves. But, as noted, the sense was the
reporting was not correct. Also, a few senators, including Johnson (got
some pass-through amendments he wanted), Collins (got whatever she wanted;
still cannot figure out what that was), gave thumbs up to the tax bill.
Stocks then recovered and pared the losses as noted.
On the heels of the Abysmal Background Checking network's
retraction-but-not-called-retraction of its story, the Senate passed its
bill late, late night. Not sure what the heck is in it -- heard they were
handwriting parts of it on scraps of paper -- but it is passed and now the
House and Senate go to the next level of war, reconciliation. It is
apparently beneficial enough for CNBC to print a story titled "This tax plan
will spark an investment boom that will benefit everyone." Of course it was
penned by Larry Kudlow . . .
So, after Mr. Toad's wild ride induced as a result of some very
self-centered and goal-seeking reports and actions, the market got what it
anticipated: the senate passing a tax reform package. It may not have
anticipated the ABC retraction, but it also didn't anticipate the ABC
fabricated or at the very least poorly, poorly fact-checked story. Usually
when you rush to judgment you end up being the more harshly judged.
Now we see how the markets react to everything being pretty status quo
before all of the running in place that occurred in the very short span of
Friday. You also watch to see if the big NASDAQ stocks pull a September,
and after a sharp down session as on Wednesday, they get purchased yet again
along with other stocks. They based during the summer, broke out of new
bases and rallied, tested, and started back up when all of this started
hitting. Again, will they resume the breakout moves after this pretty big
Wednesday speed bump?
Don't forget about the semiconductors either. Tough week with a sharp drop,
but as noted in last weekend's report, they were extended with a long run up
the 10 day EMA and no inkling of a 50 day EMA test since last touched in
late August. Well, they have not put in that touch, falling to it on
Wednesday, holding it Thursday, undercutting it Friday, then recovering with
a big doji with tail right on top of the 50 day. Quite the shakeout move.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SOX: Let's start with SOX. A leader upside turned leader downside. 22%
above its 200 day SMA on the high heading into last week. That was
corrected as of Friday all the way back to 11% at the low. Halved the
extension. Now, if the uptrend is to hold what should happen is a new
bounce and new rotation up the 10 and 20 day EMA. Stocks and indices will
breakout, rally up the 10/20 day EMA 4 to 5 rotations or bounces, then
correct back to the 50 day MA where they reset the move and do it again.
SOX broke out of a 4 month base in mid-September and rallied up the 10 day
EMA afterward, putting in the full 5 bounces. It ran out of gas and fell,
but it has hit the 50 day, showing a big doji with tail. Again, if the move
is going to continue with some strength, it should hold and start a new move
here.
NASDAQ: A lot of headlines on the week because the mega caps and FAANG were
down. The chart, however, shows a 20 day EMA test with an intraday
undercut, just as it did in late October and mid-November on the first and
second tests of that level after the mid-September breakout from its late
July to mid-September base. As with SOX, it has another bounce or two ahead
of it if the status quo remains, and as of the Anything goes Broadcast
Crapola story retraction and curmudgeon-defying senate passage of a tax
reform bill (and there is truly some tax reform in that bill), the status
quo remains.
DJ30: Yes the Dow was off 350 points Friday, but it was up 330+ points
Thursday. Moreover, it recovered 310 of the lost points intraday. Huge
surge higher on the week, even more extended (11%) over the 200 day SMA. It
CAN get to 15% extension before it starts to struggle, but that is rarer.
As you can see, it was primed for a pullback Friday with the ease in which
it gave up the Thursday gains. Again, however, it did recover.
RUTX: What a new breakout move Tuesday that coasted a bit higher into
Thursday. Then the Friday jolt sent the small caps all the way back to the
50 day EMA intraday. With the last-minute tax bill blockade attempts that
paired 'I have always been a deficit hawk since Trump was elected' Corkster
with his buddy Schumer when they aided the prior administration more than
doubling the debt, it is no wonder the tax sensitive small caps seized up
and plummeted. They too recovered vast amounts of lost ground to close, and
leave themselves in still good position to continue onward toward the 127%
Fibonacci extension at 1558 (closed at 1537) after bouncing off the 38%
Fibonacci retracement mid-November.
SP400: Massive Friday drop as well, tapping the 20 day EMA from a new
all-time high Thursday. Then the same massive recovery to hold its
breakout. Breakout, shakeout, all in 24 hours. Impressive breakout indeed,
and a test of the move is not at all abnormal.
SP500: New high Thursday, tested almost to the 20 day EMA Friday, recovered
to almost flat by the close. Broke out on a new leg higher 8 sessions back,
very strong Tuesday to Thursday move, and as with SP400, a test would not be
out of the question.
LEADERSHIP
Friday some of the recent leaders in retail, manufacturing, transportation
tested their moves. They recovered off the lows, but were due for a bit of
a test after at least 3 good sessions upside. May get some entries out of
them this week.
Retail: Some testing after good moves though COST, M added gains. JWN,
ROST, TGT put in modest tests while WMT continues its 2 week lateral flag.
HD strong all week. They paused some but for most they held their gains
nicely.
Transports: Most paused. Rails saw KSU, NSC test, but CSX continued its
break higher. Some interesting tests in trucking, e.g. JBHT after a good
break higher. WERN barely tested, same with ODFL. Airlines tested, barely
as well: LUV, SAVE. The DJ20 new high along with the DJ30 new high still
has Dow Theory working even as many with fear of flying forget about that
confirmation indication simply because they have a fear of flying.
Drugs/Biotechs/Healthcare: Trying to come around again. PFE broke higher
early week, MYL at the end of the week. Generics bounced on AMZN showing
interest. Healthcare plans also moved with UNH surging early week. LH is
testing the huge Wednesday move and may give us the entry after a bit more
testing. VSTM looks good even though it gave up its gap higher Friday.
PTLA gave us the entry. IMGN and some other smaller names are interesting.
Manufacturing/Machinery: MMM gave us the target Thursday, took Friday off.
HON surged on the week, also took Friday off. CAT showed a solid new break
higher Thursday, did not give it back.
Oil: Some good moves continued and started. SM popped Friday and we moved
in. SN continued its Thursday move, indeed accelerating the surge for us.
CVX, XOM and other big names paused some Friday after their strong Wednesday
moves. PTEN, SWN may be setting up for new moves or breaks higher,
respectively.
Financial; Strong Tuesday and Wednesday moves, then took Thursday and Friday
as personal days. Great recovery moves and we will see if we can get any
new entries off this. TCBI testing nicely as is STT. BAC looks great still
and C could now give the entry.
Semiconductors: With SOX SMH showing a possible shakeout at the 50 day MA,
some stocks should be setting up after a rough week. LRCX and AMAT are
still well below the 50 day EMA and at the 78% and 61% Fibonacci
retracement, respectively. More work to be done to form a pattern there.
AVGO held up well, reaching lower but recovering to the 20 day EMA to close
yet again. QRVO reached down toward the 200 day SMA but did manage a
recovery; work to do now to get set back up. INTC looks good. CAVM as
well. Many, however, have a lot of work to do to rebuild patterns.
FAANG: Have to look at these of course. Still in the hanging on stage
after the Wednesday drop, similar to September. FB holding the 50 day MA
with a pair of doji. AMZN holding the 10 day EMA in a test. AAPL trying to
hang on at the 20 day EMA. NFLX broke the 50 day Wednesday and sank more
from there. GOOG all the way to tap the 50 day EMA on the Friday low,
modest rebound. Okay, at least it is in great position to bounce.
Software: Took on water Wednesday and Thursday, but some recovered. MSFT
was never in jeopardy. SYNT still working well. VMW announced earnings and
jumped off the 50 day MA. BLKB took a trip to the 50 day MA on the Friday
low; will see if it can make something of the fast test. FFIV paused Friday
but gave us the target Thursday. CRM fell Wednesday, but it might pull off
a hold and new setup.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -40.76 points (-0.17%) to close at 24231.59
Nasdaq
Stats: -26.39 points (-0.38%) to close at 6847.59
Volume: 2.29B (-6.53%)
Up Volume: 965.05M (-514.95M)
Down Volume: 1.29B (+360.44M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.54 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.13 to 1
New Highs: 103 (-179)
New Lows: 43 (+9)
S&P
Stats: -5.36 points (-0.20%) to close at 2642.22
NYSE Volume: 1B (-33.33%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.06 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.38 to 1
New Highs: 151 (-147)
New Lows: 31 (-6)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.43; +0.15
VXN: 16.57; +0.64
VXO: 10.86; +0.50
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.78; -0.07
Bulls and Bears: Bulls dipped two weeks back then recovered this past week
though still off the recent peaks. It will be interesting to see how the
DJ30 versus NASDAQ/SOX will play out this past week. Bears dipped but still
hold a more elevated level, though still way off the highs. Still very high
bullish reading.
Bulls: 62.3 versus 61.5
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.4
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 62.3 versus 61.5
61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4
versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5
versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8
versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8
versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7
versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4
versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8
versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8
versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9
versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
Bears: 15.1 versus 15.4
15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1
versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2 versus 19.1 versus 19.1
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2 versus 16.5 versus 16.7
versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3
versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5
versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3
versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6
versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.363% versus 2.412%. Given the Friday uncertainty, bonds surged as
a safe haven play. Still below the late November highs, but a big bounce
off the 50 day EMA.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.363
versus 2.412% versus 2.385% versus 2.326% versus 2.329% versus 2.321% versus
2.34% versus 2.354% versus 2.367% versus 2.345% versus 2.37% versus 2.336%
versus 2.375% versus 2.407% versus 2.402% versus 2.34% versus 2.326% versus
2.316% versus 2.32% versus 2.332% versus 2.349% versus 2.358% versus 2.378%
versus 2.37% versus 2.419% versus 2.456% versus 2.435% versus 2.421% versus
2.366% versus 2.383% versus 2.318% versus 2.341% versus 2.30% versus 2.302%
versus 2.275% versus 2.321% versus 2.345% versus 2.345% versus 2.361% versus
2.348% versus 2.327% versus 2.326% versus 2.341% versus 2.339% versus 2.312%
versus 2.307% versus 2.236% versus 2.222% versus 2.253% versus 2.276% versus
2.273% versus 2.246% versus 2.234% versus 2.201% versus 2.186% versus 2.19%
versus 2.167% versus 2.134% versus 2.042%
EUR/USD: 1.18983 versus 1.18976. Working laterally over the 10 day EMA,
testing the mid-November break higher off the 50 day EMA.
Historical: 1.18976 versus 1.18529 versus 1.18489 versus 1.1899 versus
1.19329 versus 1.18148 versus 1.17402 versus 1.1791 versus 1.1787 versus
1.1786 versus 1.1799 versus 1.16443 versus 1.16646 versus 1.16439 versus
1.15871 versus 1.15954 versus 1.1609 versus 1.16092 versus 1.16575 versus
1.15480 versus 1.1644 versus 1.16091 versus 1.16330 versus 1.18163 versus
1.17570 versus 1.1759 versus 1.17798 versus 1.18476 versus 1.17995 versus
1.1771 versus 1.17932 versus 1.1823 versus 1.1834 versus 1.18662 versus
1.1813 versus 1.17460 versus 1.17352 versus 1.17100 versus 1.1754 versus
1.17676 versus 1.17315 versus 1.1812 versus 1.17817 versus 1.1746 versus
1.17852 versus 1.18540 versus 1.19476 versus 1.19420 versus 1.19420 versus
1.19954 versus 1.19436 versus 1.1918 versus 1.1874 versus 1.19706 versus
1.19551 versus 1.20379 versus 1.2025 versus 1.19258 versus 1.19143 versus
1.18621 versus 1.19131 versus 1.18938 versus 1.19731 versus 1.19678 versus
1.19212 versus 1.18 versus 1.17516 versus 1.1813 versus 1.17595 versus
1.17107 versus 1.17812 versus 1.17445 versus 1.17751 versus 1.18216 versus
1.17652
USD/JPY: 112.190 versus 112.55. Gave back some ground in the turmoil, but
bounced off an intraday 200 day SMA test, holding much of the week's bounce
off that support.
Historical: 112.55 versus 112.102 versus 111.583 versus 111.244 versus
111.523 versus 111.247 versus 112.349 versus 112.615 versus 112.124 versus
112.91 versus 112.879 versus 113.430 versus 113.615 versus 113.526 versus
113.379 versus 113.99 versus 113.723 versus 113.758 versus 114.064 versus
114.010 versus 114.010 versus 113.845 versus 113.640 versus 113.175 versus
113.675 versus 114.071 versus 113.607 versus 113.913 versus 113.31 versus
113.530 versus 112.561 versus 113.031 versus 112.21 versus 112.20 versus
111.852 versus 112.25 versus 112.413 versus 112.41 versus 112.700 versus
112.653 versus 112.818 versus 112.79 versus 112.667 versus 112.716 versus
112.442 versus 112.86 versus 112.289 versus 111.649 versus 1.12125 versus
111.995 versus 112.454 versus 111.559 versus 111.435 versus 110.846 versus
110.01 versus 110.62 versus 110.216 versus 109.434 versus 107.847 versus
108.444
Oil: 58.36, +0.96. Solid bounce Friday after a Monday to Thursday pullback
to the 10 day EMA. OPEC and Russia extended the production cuts through
then end of 2018.
Gold: 1282.30, +5.60. Still having a hard time getting off the 200 day
SMA.
MONDAY
Hey, a jobs report is due out this coming week. Back to normal perhaps in
terms of the market and the news flow? What a hectic Friday, but we here
were happy, at least for now, we stayed the course Friday. NASDAQ and FAANG
still have to show if this was a 'September thing' type of move Wednesday,
but they recovered well enough Friday. Regret? Perhaps should have bought
in with a few positions on that Friday morning selloff.
That said, the market is being called too high by most quarters, and the
bulls/bears supports those calls. Thing is, the market can become more and
more extended before it breaks. Last week certainly shows volatility, at
least in some leadership areas, but others surged. Moreover, this market
has shown that certain groups get sold quickly and then recovery quickly.
That is one of the key areas we are watching to start the week, e.g. FAANG
and others in software, chips. Chips suffered a lot of damage, however; may
take them time to come back around and set up.
There is money moving into new areas and some are testing; will see what
they produce in terms of entries. Some leaders were hit as noted, but some
are already very interesting for new positions. Always worth a look.
At the same time there are downside plays, and given the sentiment and some
of the volatility you have to look at some of those plays. This past week
we had some, but the opening moves were extremely quick; always best to play
the test that fails. So, we look at some of those just in case.
Big picture: stocks are extended, but it is a time of year runs are often
made. Some of the big names broke out of bases, rallied and tested -- then
Wednesday to Friday tested them more. IF there is a mindset to rally to
yearend those tests may make them intriguing to those wanting to play a
yearend move. We will see. The indices are all in uptrends, there were 50
day EMA tests by SOX and even RUTX intraday. If the trends are to continue,
you would anticipate bounces off the 50 day with the resumption of the moves
up the 10/20 day EMA to follow. Again, it all depends upon if the bids
remain and want to carry stocks higher to yearend.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6847.59
Resistance:
6914 is the late November all-time high
Support:
6796 is the early November 2017
The 20 day EMA at 6802
The 50 day EMA at 6685
6641 is the October high
6477 is the September intraday high
The 2016 trendline at 6463
6461 is the July 2017 prior all-time high
6450 is the early September high
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
6300 is the mid-June interim high
The 200 day SMA at 6271
6205 is the late May all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
S&P 500: Closed at 2642.22
Resistance:
Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2601
2597 is the November 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2569
2544 is the upper channel line from the March 2009 uptrend channel
2491 is the August all-time high
2480 the late August and early August highs
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
The 200 day SMA at 2454
2409 is the July 2017 closing low
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 24,231.59
Resistance:
Support:
23,602 is the early November 2017 high
The 20 day EMA at 23,642
The 50 day EMA at 23,221
22,420 is the September high
22,179 is the August 2017 all-time high
22,086 is the mid-August lower high
The 200 day SMA at 21,759
21,681is the July prior all-time high
21,638 is the July 2017 closing high
21,529 is the June 2017 high
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)