* * * *
5/27/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued.
Entry alerts: DIOD; GRUB; VECO
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Market pauses after a 6-day recovery, before Memorial Day weekend.
- Economic data continues to erode, market doesn't mind. So far.
- Corporate profits decline according to what is reported to the IRS.
- Business investment continues a second month of nothing.
- Leaders still in good shape.
Friday the market was quiet, and quite flat, as it digested six days of
upside following that Wednesday one-day selloff. Often of late the Friday
ahead of a 3-day weekend is contra-trend, and with the markets in an uptrend
and the leading indices overcoming the Wednesday thumping, Friday was due
for some weakness. If that was it, however, it certainly was not much.
SP500 0.75, 0.03%
NASDAQ 4.93, 0.08%
DJ30 -2.67, -0.01%
SP400 -0.24%
RUTX -0.08%
SOX 0.38%
NASDAQ 100 0.17%
VOLUME: NYSE -16%, NASDAQ -12%. Volume down ahead of the long weekend.
Advance/Decline: NYSE 1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.1:1. Definitely a large cap
session, at least on NASDAQ.
It was an unexciting day on a day that nothing was going to excite the
market. Trump was still overseas and had not had his handshake war with the
new French President, had not knocked over the G-7's card table about the
Paris climate accord, Merkel had not stated that Britain and the US could no
longer be relied upon, had not told Abbas that he lied to Trump in DC, etc.
All that fun transpired over the weekend.
The market only had the second iteration of Q1 GDP and Durable Goods Orders
to chew on. Both were less than satisfactory and bonds still look ready to
break higher as a result of the weaker economics. RBC even said its
indicators are flashing an 'imminent yield breakdown' is threatened.
GDP Q1 2nd: 1.2% vs 0.8% expected vs 0.7% first read (2.1% Q4 final)
Consumption: 0.6% vs 0.3% prior. This added 0.44% to bottom line GDP
(+0.23% prior reading)
Corporate Profits: -1.9% vs +0.5% prior.
Whoa. How can profits be lower when companies just reported one of the best
earnings and profits quarters in a very long time? Several reasons, two
standing out.
First, the big corporations that have done so well since the handouts
starting with the Obama stimulus and carried through the ACA, executive
orders, etc. has continued thus far under Trump because his administration
just got started and it has been unable to push through tax or healthcare
reform. A lot of executive orders and regulations are getting rolled back
and that helps, but it takes awhile.
Second, and more immediately germane to this last report: the profits
reported to the IRS are actual, GAAP profits, not the non-GAAP fiction
designed to jump stock prices that are reported to shareholders and the
markets each quarter. So, you have corporate profits actually lower. Sorry
to burst bubbles, but then again, the market does not care about that. Big
moves on made up earnings in a market that is made up of years of Fed easy
money.
Nonetheless, the market moved, perhaps not higher, but not lower. This even
with more calls that the end of the equity rally is over. Indeed, on many
of the more negative websites there are more and more stories with headlines
including 'the last time this happened' warnings of a major, end of this
stage of western society market and economic event.
Durables Orders, April: -0.7% vs -1.8% expected vs 2.3 prior (from 0.7%)
Ex-Tansports: -0.4% vs +0.4% expected vs 0.8% prior (from -0.2%)
Business Investment: 0.0% vs 0.5% prior. 2017 low as businesses,
supposedly so flush with profits, are not investing.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
Nonetheless, the indices held their gains on the week and SOX even nicely
extended its move to higher highs. The market continued its indifference to
weakening economic data, a bond chart that looks ready to break higher, and
at least through Friday, the issues in DC. Of course with Trump back in
country and leakers, the press, etc. hell bent on fighting the
administration every step of the way, that could all change.
That said, last week once again showed how the indices are quick to shake
off disruptive market moves and continue the trends.
SP500: Added fractionally to its new high as it successfully recaptured the
Wednesday losses and Thursday put a bit of distance on the old high.
NASDAQ: Also added a nominally higher new high as it too put distance on
the prior high Thursday. Still trending up the 10 day EMA, having quickly
recaptured it after that Wednesday upheaval.
SOX: Impressive session, starting lower, rallying positive and adding some
padding to its break to a higher post-2000 high. Many chips continue to
recover and set up to deliver more upside.
DJ30: Lost a bit of ground Friday, still just shy of its March all-time
high, but set up to make a new high. Of course, it has not done so and MACD
is lower as it tests that high. Not exactly an upside juggernaut but the
other big cap indices are leading.
SP400/RUTX: Up on the week but only made it to mid-range before fading some
to the weekend. SP400 is nicely over the 50 day MA's, in position to move
if the bids come. RUTX shows the same action, pausing after breaking back
up through the 50 day MA's.
LEADERSHIP
Semiconductors: Still leading, having posted a nice comeback. AVGO to a
higher high late week. QRVO rallied sharply, off a bit Friday. MU broke to
a higher closing high. DIOD jumped higher on stronger volume. NVDA broke
to a higher high on strong volume. SIMO posted a great break higher on the
week. CY looks good and MXL and PXLW look good to go higher again.
China: Still solid though some took a powder. SOHU in a nice test, setting
for a new move. BABA continues up the 10 day EMA. SINA is strong. QIWI
made us another higher high. CTRP looks ready to break higher again. BIDU
looks ready to make a new break higher.
Casual eateries were off Friday but good on the week: SONC, WEN, DRI, YUM
Manufacturing enjoyed a good week: ZBRA, HON still showing good uptrends
Transports: Very solid across the board. Airlines DAL, UAL. Rails rallied,
making us quite upset about selling KSU prematurely.
Internet: GOOG still very solid. BCOR ditto. GRUB posted a great move
upside Friday.
Miscellaneous: Great moves continued in several of our plays across
sectors. MNST, STMP, SQ, COL.
Medical/Healthcare: IMGN looks good to move again. CO rallied nicely.
Some of these look to be forming up better.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -2.67 points (-0.01%) to close at 21080.28
Nasdaq
Stats: +4.94 points (+0.08%) to close at 6210.19
Volume: 1.57B (-11.8%)
Up Volume: 868.45M (-271.55M)
Down Volume: 652.1M (+41.73M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.13 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.16 to 1
New Highs: 135 (-86)
New Lows: 65 (+1)
S&P
Stats: +0.75 points (+0.03%) to close at 2415.82
NYSE Volume: 682.8M (-15.63%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.11 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.1 to 1
New Highs: 157 (-80)
New Lows: 39 (-3)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 9.81; -0.18
VXN: 12.26; -0.32
VXO: 9.16; -0.1
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.91; +0.05
Bulls and Bears: Bulls faded HARD. Bears jumped HARD. Lots of pessimism
quickly injected itself into the market. Lots of fund managers and market
mavens are negative and it is spreading around. That is good.
Bulls: 51.9 versus 58.1
Bears: 18.3 versus 17.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 51.9 versus 58.1
58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8
versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2
versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6
versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3
versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 18.3 versus 17.1
18.3 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3
versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5
versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3
versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3
versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.26% versus 2.255%. Bonds still look ready to break
higher once more.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.255%
versus 2.252% versus 2.287% versus 2.254% versus 2.233% versus 2.229% versus
2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.34% versus 2.393% versus 2.401%
versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus 2.322% versus 2.289% versus
2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus 2.275% versus 2.236%
versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248% versus 2.232% versus
2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus 2.37% versus 2.34% versus 2.33%
versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus 2.40% versus 2.41% versus
2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40% versus 2.41% versus 2.40%
versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus 2.529% versus 2.502% versus
2.602
EUR/USD: 1.11810 versus 1.12148
Historical: 1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus
1.11916 versus 1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus
1.09833 versus 1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus
1.09286 versus 1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus
1.090984 versus 1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus
1.08449 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus
1.07304 versus 1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus
1.05984 versus 1.05906 versus 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus
1.06702 versus 1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus
1.08640 versus 1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus
1.0748 versus 1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus
1.0636 versus 1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus
1.05764 versus 1.06266 versus 1.05214
USD/JPY: 111.217 versus 111.828
Historical: 111.828 versus 111.678 versus 111.835 versus 111.076 versus
111.534 versus 111.271 versus 111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus
113.074 versus 113.749 versus 113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus
113.771 versus 113.217 versus 112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus
112.779 versus 111.793 versus 111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus
111.234 versus 109.704 versus 110.022 versus 109.00 versus 109.357 versus
108.974 versus 108.525 versus 109.150 versus 109.170 versus 108.926 versus
109.691 versus 110.704 versus 111.096 versus 110.85 versus 110.794 versus
110.705 versus 111.386 versus 111.255 versus 111.114 versus 110.581 versus
111.335 versus 111.242 versus 111.295 versus 111.502 versus 112.289
Oil: 49.80, +0.90. Oil imploded Thursday after hitting 52. That stalled
it a bit below the range highs (53-55). Friday a recovery of the 200 day
SMA, but still problematic. Can oil recovery the same as equity markets?
Gold: 1268.10, +11.70. Solid break higher after the weeklong consolidation
of the move that recovered the 200 day SMA. Gold still looks ready to move
higher.
TUESDAY
Market closed Monday for Memorial Day. That means plenty of time for the
Asian and European markets to work through the weekend stories from the G-7,
etc. Then we see if the US markets pick up where the left off, including
the US stock indices. SOX, NASDAQ, and SP500 at higher highs. Will they
continue higher and pull the others with them?
Lots of negatives still swirl in the headlines and just because the indices
hit new highs does not mean they will necessarily hold or extend them.
True, but thus far the indices have met adversity with steady buying. Did
it again last week.
Thus this weekend we have more upside plays to take advantage of good setups
and more upside if the market can deliver. Semiconductors are leading
again, internet is still moving higher, Chinese stocks, FAANG, and others
are working as well.
Have a great Memorial Day!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6210.19
Resistance:
Support:
6170 is the recent all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6003
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
The 50 day SMA at 5983
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
The 2016 trendline at 5882
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5568
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2415.82
Resistance:
The 2016 trendline at 2437
Support:
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2374
The 50 day SMA at 2372
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2262
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 21,080.28
Resistance:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 20,787
The 50 day SMA at 20,786
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
The 200 day SMA at 19,633
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Sunday, May 28, 2017
Saturday, May 20, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 5-19-17
* * * *
5/19/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: BITA; EXAS; SOHU
Entry alerts: BTE; TSRO
Trailing stops: MU; PXLW
Stop alerts: BLUE; SWIRs
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Market rebounds Thursday and Friday as political intrigue dies down but
resurfaces late week.
- Fed's Bullard spouts off about too aggressive rate hikes, economic data
very mixed, Comey melodrama continues.
- Volume solid on recovery, but the indices and several leaders are not that
convincing on the bounce.
- Still some solid leaders and the indices have shown what looked to be
downside breaks before only to recover.
Stocks bounced again, but outside of a few of the same leaders and some new
ones, the moves simply were not convincing. Not convincing, that is, in the
sense new highs are to come on this particular move.
Futures started higher, stocks rallied, and the move held into
mid-afternoon, indeed putting in higher highs to that time. James Bullard
of the Fed was talking, always a mistake, and, among other things, noted
market expectations of rate hikes were "too aggressive," and he even
ventured that more QE was a possibility. Well why not rally?
Then the daily dose of White House leaks arrived, this one from another
anonymous source claiming to have seen notes taken from the meeting between
Trump and the Russian representative where Trump called Comey, among others,
a nut job, and said basically Trump was now free to do whatever. I have to
say, I am not a Trump fan nor a Clinton fan, but I have a hard time
believing either would have done the things attributed to them by the
opposition. You just don't get to where they are being so blatantly stupid.
But, that didn't matter for Clinton in the election and it apparently does
not matter for Trump now.
As for the market, perhaps this was what threw the monkey wrench in the
moves higher. Fading chances of tax reform, healthcare reform, regulatory
reform does remove the lion's share of the reason for rallying.
SP500 16.01, 0.68%
NASDAQ 28.57, 0.47%
DJ30 141.92, 0.69%
SP400 1.01%
RUTX 0.46%
SOX 1.09%
VOLUME: NYSE +3%, NASDAQ -10%. NASDAQ trade fell but remained above
average, where NASDAQ has traded most of the past two months on the way up.
That shows a lot of buying. There was a distribution session Wednesday on
that selling, but the market can survive a single distribution day and
continue.
NYSE trade edged higher and was still solidly above average. The last three
sessions of the week were all above average after NYSE trade flipped back
and forth but mostly on light trade before that. Interestingly, volume was
stronger Thursday and Friday than the selling volume Wednesday. Thus, there
was distribution Wednesday, but buying in the wake of that session. Again,
one day typically does not kill a rally though on NYSE, the volume was not
all that stellar on the way up, certainly not the NASDAQ level.
It was also expiration so some volume is attributable to that given there
were violent moves ahead of expiration, necessitating further moves to
adjust positions.
A/D: NYSE 3:1, NASDAQ 1.8:1. Not bad breadth on NYSE as the midcaps posted
a decent move.
CHARTS
The Index action was on some good volume and in the case of NYSE indices, on
solid enough breadth. Two days up in response to the distribution reversal
selling Wednesday is not a bad response. The problem arises in the
technical look. All of the indices rebounded, SP500 and DJ30 recovering the
50 day MA's. NASDAQ bounced from above the 50 day MA's. SP400 never broke
back over them. SOX was never in trouble in terms of breaking support; it
bounced off the 20 day EMA though it was not immune from the Wednesday
distribution session.
The issue is where it leaves the indices heading into next week: A big break
lower with distribution, coming off new highs for SOX, NASDAQ, and SP500,
and no index recovering the losses. It has the look of a rebound in relief
but not a false break lower and then reversal to propel back to new highs.
That said, this has happened before, i.e. technical hiccups that looked very
damaging but then the buyers just outmuscled the sellers. Happened in
November 2016 when NASDAQ moved to a new high then was rocked on high
volume. Held, rebounded, recovered new highs. In late January 2017 there
was that island reversal that did not reverse. A new high in March was sold
hard, but again NASDAQ held the 50 day MA in an 8 week consolidation and
broke to new highs in April.
Of course at some point the magic lamp fails to light. This is another
opportunity for the buyers to show they still want to buy, that there is
still confidence at some level in the ability of the government to pass some
tax, healthcare, and regulatory reform in one shape or another.
LEADERSHIP
As a market participant, not only is it the index action, but what you need
to focus on is the action in leadership stocks even more so than the action
in the indices. Many leaders broke to higher highs just ahead of the
Wednesday selling only to face serious reversals downside. AAPL, AMZN,
NFLX, GOOG, AVGO, AMAT, MSFT, TSLA, RHT. All of these stocks hit higher
highs but then reversed. Some are recovering decently but even so they
still have not put that sharp downside session behind them.
Breakouts that reverse is a key element to watch in determining market
health. How these 'name brand' leaders perform in the aftermath of that
reversal will tell a lot. Moreover, it is not just those stocks. Many of
the market leaders in chips and elsewhere suffered the same type of action,
and how they recover is equally important.
Oil stocks: Still trying to become new leaders. BTE broke to a higher high
on better volume, coming off the lows. JONE looks similar. GPOR is setting
up. Others are acting that way but not as good yet, e.g. MRO, CVX.
China: Already leaders. SOHU and BITA surged to initial targets Friday.
NTES held its ground and pattern on a volatile week. BABA sold and
reversed. YNDX bounced off a quick 20 day EMA test.
Drugs: Trying to move off some good patterns but struggling to hold moves,
Friday is a case in point. NVAX looks good. CGIX is setting up. PCRX is
down but still looks good. AUPH is similar. SRPT started higher, had a
hard time holding up Friday, still solid. The theme: still solid but still
struggling to hold the move.
Semiconductors: Struggled but still showing leadership qualities. AVGO up
and down but holding its move and trying to form up for a new move. LSCC in
excellent position to break higher. NVDA gapped back upside to challenge
the Tuesday new high. XLNX is at a new high, ignoring the selling. ON,
NPTN decent enough. SIMO sold off but then surged off the 50 day MA Friday.
Not all are as nice. SLAB, PLAB hit hard times. PXLW is too volatile.
Still showing some buying; will know more this week.
FAANG: Mixed. AAPL, AMZN not bad. FB trying to make a break off the 50
day MA. NFLX, GOOG rebounded from selling but show patterns similar to the
indices.
NOTE: The drugs and medical stocks do not look bad at all. Oil stocks are
attempting to set up. Chemical stocks are not bad. China continues solid
as do many chips. What the market MIGHT be showing is some rotation OUT of
the initial leaders that pushed NASDAQ to those consecutive, day after day
highs. Thus we need to be open to the possibility of these stocks fading as
simply a part of the market still moving upside, just with some other
leaders while these pull back and take a breather.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +141.82 points (+0.69%) to close at 20804.84
Nasdaq
Stats: +28.57 points (+0.47%) to close at 6083.7
Volume: 1.91B (-10.33%)
Up Volume: 1.35B (-30M)
Down Volume: 517.08M (-201.72M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.75 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.36 to 1
New Highs: 102 (+51)
New Lows: 58 (-50)
S&P
Stats: +16.01 points (+0.68%) to close at 2381.73
NYSE Volume: 1.08B (+2.86%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.95 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.04 to 1
New Highs: 98 (+60)
New Lows: 43 (-35)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 12.04; -2.62
VXN: 13.86; -1.8
VXO: 11.07; -1.62
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.99; -0.14. The week saw the ratio jump back over
1.0 Wednesday and Thursday. This is an inverse indicator, i.e. when there
are more puts traded than calls it starts indicating selling is over. It
has to have a series of such closes to mean anything, e.g. 8 to 10.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls faded slightly but not much. Of course the
Wednesday market drop is not factored into these numbers. It will next
week, but that does not change the fact of the string of 60+ closes from
early 2017. That level typically results in selling at some point.
Bulls: 58.1 versus 58.7
Bears: 17.1 versus 17.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.1 versus 58.7
58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5
versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 17.1 versus 17.3
17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1
versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6
versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4
versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6
versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.233% versus 2.229%. Bonds surged on the week,
particularly Wednesday. Makes sense given the uncertainty. Overall, bonds
are still suggesting issues, e.g. the economy here in the US is just not
that good despite some super huge companies reporting super huge earnings.
Most people do not work for those companies.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.229%
versus 2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.34% versus 2.393% versus
2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus 2.322% versus 2.289%
versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus 2.275% versus
2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248% versus 2.232%
versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus 2.37% versus 2.34% versus
2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus 2.40% versus 2.41%
versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40% versus 2.41% versus
2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus 2.529% versus 2.502%
versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.12077 versus 1.10985. After a one-day pause Thursday, the euro
rallied to a new recovery high, up 4 of 5 sessions on the week and extending
the breakout after that mid-month test.
Historical: 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984 versus
1.05906 versus 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus 1.06702 versus
1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus 1.08640 versus
1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214
USD/JPY: 111.271 versus 111.584. Dollar trying to hold at the 200 day SMA
after bombing lower Monday and Tuesday.
Historical: 111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus
113.749 versus 113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus
113.217 versus 112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus
111.793 versus 111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus
109.704 versus 110.022 versus 109.00 versus 109.357 versus 108.974 versus
108.525 versus 109.150 versus 109.170 versus 108.926 versus 109.691 versus
110.704 versus 111.096 versus 110.85 versus 110.794 versus 110.705 versus
111.386 versus 111.255 versus 111.114 versus 110.581 versus 111.335 versus
111.242 versus 111.295 versus 111.502 versus 112.289
Oil: 50.67, +1.01. Oil was up all week, its second week of gains. Moved
through the 200 day SMA Thursday after a pause below that level. Friday a
strong break higher again. Oil continues its rally higher in its range.
Gold: 1253.60, +0.80. Gold broke through the 200 day SMA Wednesday during
that turmoil. Paused Thursday, sold Friday, reversed to hold the 200 day.
Rallied, paused, resumed.
MONDAY
The market certainly took on water Wednesday and did not redeem itself
through Friday. The indices are still trying to swim back upstream. Many
leaders such as NFLX, GOOG mirror that action, up but not strong. Many
other leaders, however, sport very good recoveries or did not fall victim to
the selling in the first place.
So, there are still leaders that look good and sectors that look very good.
Still, the fact that many leaders reversed hard off of new highs, and some
indices as well, raises a caution flag to see how the market responds this
week. In the past it has shrugged off these kind of half-weeks and
continued. Now with the insane, hyperventilating political news
environment, it is especially something to watch. Indeed, the latest story
today is that Comey is now changing his mind about whether there was
attempted political influence. Of course Comey lost whatever credibility he
had during the election by stepping in when he should have just done his job
quietly. Either he is truly a 'nut job' or he is just getting the same
treatment everyone in DC is getting these days.
The end result? It is up to the market to show if it will shake off these
issues and again overcome a market jolt. We have upside positions working
well. We have upside plays that look good if they can show the move. We
have more upside this weekend. We also have downside plays ready to go and
more this weekend. PWR turned in a great downside gain for us; we closed it
Thursday as it showed a bit of life after a 2+ week drop through the 200 day
SMA as we held May options.
As usual, you follow the leaders' lead, playing a bit cautiously right now
given the market jerky moves, but still recognizing good patterns and
potentially emerging leaders. Oil stocks look pretty darn solid in many
cases despite surging US production and more rigs churning; heck, there are
two rigs in my area and one well just completed. Nonetheless, these stocks
are setting up and moving higher. We picked up some BTE Friday and like
JONE if it can hold the move.
Okay, those are specifics. Overall the market has to prove it can hold and
move higher gain, but it does have groups trying to emerge even as it
struggles. Perhaps that is simply some rotation from the big names that
have led the move to this point, perhaps it is more insidious for the upside
than that. It is a positive there are new groups trying to improve and
others still working well, and we will see how the market shakes out this
week.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6083.70
Resistance:
The 10 day EMA at 6088
6170 is the recent all-time high
Support:
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
The 50 day EMA at 5965
The 50 day SMA at 5954
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
The 2016 trendline at 5864
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5544
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2381.73
Resistance:
The 2016 trendline at 2419
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 2369
The 50 day EMA at 2367
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2257
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 20,804.84
Resistance:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 20,775
The 50 day EMA at 20,738
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
The 200 day SMA at 19,571
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
5/19/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: BITA; EXAS; SOHU
Entry alerts: BTE; TSRO
Trailing stops: MU; PXLW
Stop alerts: BLUE; SWIRs
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Market rebounds Thursday and Friday as political intrigue dies down but
resurfaces late week.
- Fed's Bullard spouts off about too aggressive rate hikes, economic data
very mixed, Comey melodrama continues.
- Volume solid on recovery, but the indices and several leaders are not that
convincing on the bounce.
- Still some solid leaders and the indices have shown what looked to be
downside breaks before only to recover.
Stocks bounced again, but outside of a few of the same leaders and some new
ones, the moves simply were not convincing. Not convincing, that is, in the
sense new highs are to come on this particular move.
Futures started higher, stocks rallied, and the move held into
mid-afternoon, indeed putting in higher highs to that time. James Bullard
of the Fed was talking, always a mistake, and, among other things, noted
market expectations of rate hikes were "too aggressive," and he even
ventured that more QE was a possibility. Well why not rally?
Then the daily dose of White House leaks arrived, this one from another
anonymous source claiming to have seen notes taken from the meeting between
Trump and the Russian representative where Trump called Comey, among others,
a nut job, and said basically Trump was now free to do whatever. I have to
say, I am not a Trump fan nor a Clinton fan, but I have a hard time
believing either would have done the things attributed to them by the
opposition. You just don't get to where they are being so blatantly stupid.
But, that didn't matter for Clinton in the election and it apparently does
not matter for Trump now.
As for the market, perhaps this was what threw the monkey wrench in the
moves higher. Fading chances of tax reform, healthcare reform, regulatory
reform does remove the lion's share of the reason for rallying.
SP500 16.01, 0.68%
NASDAQ 28.57, 0.47%
DJ30 141.92, 0.69%
SP400 1.01%
RUTX 0.46%
SOX 1.09%
VOLUME: NYSE +3%, NASDAQ -10%. NASDAQ trade fell but remained above
average, where NASDAQ has traded most of the past two months on the way up.
That shows a lot of buying. There was a distribution session Wednesday on
that selling, but the market can survive a single distribution day and
continue.
NYSE trade edged higher and was still solidly above average. The last three
sessions of the week were all above average after NYSE trade flipped back
and forth but mostly on light trade before that. Interestingly, volume was
stronger Thursday and Friday than the selling volume Wednesday. Thus, there
was distribution Wednesday, but buying in the wake of that session. Again,
one day typically does not kill a rally though on NYSE, the volume was not
all that stellar on the way up, certainly not the NASDAQ level.
It was also expiration so some volume is attributable to that given there
were violent moves ahead of expiration, necessitating further moves to
adjust positions.
A/D: NYSE 3:1, NASDAQ 1.8:1. Not bad breadth on NYSE as the midcaps posted
a decent move.
CHARTS
The Index action was on some good volume and in the case of NYSE indices, on
solid enough breadth. Two days up in response to the distribution reversal
selling Wednesday is not a bad response. The problem arises in the
technical look. All of the indices rebounded, SP500 and DJ30 recovering the
50 day MA's. NASDAQ bounced from above the 50 day MA's. SP400 never broke
back over them. SOX was never in trouble in terms of breaking support; it
bounced off the 20 day EMA though it was not immune from the Wednesday
distribution session.
The issue is where it leaves the indices heading into next week: A big break
lower with distribution, coming off new highs for SOX, NASDAQ, and SP500,
and no index recovering the losses. It has the look of a rebound in relief
but not a false break lower and then reversal to propel back to new highs.
That said, this has happened before, i.e. technical hiccups that looked very
damaging but then the buyers just outmuscled the sellers. Happened in
November 2016 when NASDAQ moved to a new high then was rocked on high
volume. Held, rebounded, recovered new highs. In late January 2017 there
was that island reversal that did not reverse. A new high in March was sold
hard, but again NASDAQ held the 50 day MA in an 8 week consolidation and
broke to new highs in April.
Of course at some point the magic lamp fails to light. This is another
opportunity for the buyers to show they still want to buy, that there is
still confidence at some level in the ability of the government to pass some
tax, healthcare, and regulatory reform in one shape or another.
LEADERSHIP
As a market participant, not only is it the index action, but what you need
to focus on is the action in leadership stocks even more so than the action
in the indices. Many leaders broke to higher highs just ahead of the
Wednesday selling only to face serious reversals downside. AAPL, AMZN,
NFLX, GOOG, AVGO, AMAT, MSFT, TSLA, RHT. All of these stocks hit higher
highs but then reversed. Some are recovering decently but even so they
still have not put that sharp downside session behind them.
Breakouts that reverse is a key element to watch in determining market
health. How these 'name brand' leaders perform in the aftermath of that
reversal will tell a lot. Moreover, it is not just those stocks. Many of
the market leaders in chips and elsewhere suffered the same type of action,
and how they recover is equally important.
Oil stocks: Still trying to become new leaders. BTE broke to a higher high
on better volume, coming off the lows. JONE looks similar. GPOR is setting
up. Others are acting that way but not as good yet, e.g. MRO, CVX.
China: Already leaders. SOHU and BITA surged to initial targets Friday.
NTES held its ground and pattern on a volatile week. BABA sold and
reversed. YNDX bounced off a quick 20 day EMA test.
Drugs: Trying to move off some good patterns but struggling to hold moves,
Friday is a case in point. NVAX looks good. CGIX is setting up. PCRX is
down but still looks good. AUPH is similar. SRPT started higher, had a
hard time holding up Friday, still solid. The theme: still solid but still
struggling to hold the move.
Semiconductors: Struggled but still showing leadership qualities. AVGO up
and down but holding its move and trying to form up for a new move. LSCC in
excellent position to break higher. NVDA gapped back upside to challenge
the Tuesday new high. XLNX is at a new high, ignoring the selling. ON,
NPTN decent enough. SIMO sold off but then surged off the 50 day MA Friday.
Not all are as nice. SLAB, PLAB hit hard times. PXLW is too volatile.
Still showing some buying; will know more this week.
FAANG: Mixed. AAPL, AMZN not bad. FB trying to make a break off the 50
day MA. NFLX, GOOG rebounded from selling but show patterns similar to the
indices.
NOTE: The drugs and medical stocks do not look bad at all. Oil stocks are
attempting to set up. Chemical stocks are not bad. China continues solid
as do many chips. What the market MIGHT be showing is some rotation OUT of
the initial leaders that pushed NASDAQ to those consecutive, day after day
highs. Thus we need to be open to the possibility of these stocks fading as
simply a part of the market still moving upside, just with some other
leaders while these pull back and take a breather.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +141.82 points (+0.69%) to close at 20804.84
Nasdaq
Stats: +28.57 points (+0.47%) to close at 6083.7
Volume: 1.91B (-10.33%)
Up Volume: 1.35B (-30M)
Down Volume: 517.08M (-201.72M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.75 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.36 to 1
New Highs: 102 (+51)
New Lows: 58 (-50)
S&P
Stats: +16.01 points (+0.68%) to close at 2381.73
NYSE Volume: 1.08B (+2.86%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.95 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.04 to 1
New Highs: 98 (+60)
New Lows: 43 (-35)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 12.04; -2.62
VXN: 13.86; -1.8
VXO: 11.07; -1.62
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.99; -0.14. The week saw the ratio jump back over
1.0 Wednesday and Thursday. This is an inverse indicator, i.e. when there
are more puts traded than calls it starts indicating selling is over. It
has to have a series of such closes to mean anything, e.g. 8 to 10.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls faded slightly but not much. Of course the
Wednesday market drop is not factored into these numbers. It will next
week, but that does not change the fact of the string of 60+ closes from
early 2017. That level typically results in selling at some point.
Bulls: 58.1 versus 58.7
Bears: 17.1 versus 17.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.1 versus 58.7
58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5
versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 17.1 versus 17.3
17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1
versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6
versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4
versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6
versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.233% versus 2.229%. Bonds surged on the week,
particularly Wednesday. Makes sense given the uncertainty. Overall, bonds
are still suggesting issues, e.g. the economy here in the US is just not
that good despite some super huge companies reporting super huge earnings.
Most people do not work for those companies.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.229%
versus 2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.34% versus 2.393% versus
2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus 2.322% versus 2.289%
versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus 2.275% versus
2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248% versus 2.232%
versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus 2.37% versus 2.34% versus
2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus 2.40% versus 2.41%
versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40% versus 2.41% versus
2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus 2.529% versus 2.502%
versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.12077 versus 1.10985. After a one-day pause Thursday, the euro
rallied to a new recovery high, up 4 of 5 sessions on the week and extending
the breakout after that mid-month test.
Historical: 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984 versus
1.05906 versus 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus 1.06702 versus
1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus 1.08640 versus
1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214
USD/JPY: 111.271 versus 111.584. Dollar trying to hold at the 200 day SMA
after bombing lower Monday and Tuesday.
Historical: 111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus
113.749 versus 113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus
113.217 versus 112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus
111.793 versus 111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus
109.704 versus 110.022 versus 109.00 versus 109.357 versus 108.974 versus
108.525 versus 109.150 versus 109.170 versus 108.926 versus 109.691 versus
110.704 versus 111.096 versus 110.85 versus 110.794 versus 110.705 versus
111.386 versus 111.255 versus 111.114 versus 110.581 versus 111.335 versus
111.242 versus 111.295 versus 111.502 versus 112.289
Oil: 50.67, +1.01. Oil was up all week, its second week of gains. Moved
through the 200 day SMA Thursday after a pause below that level. Friday a
strong break higher again. Oil continues its rally higher in its range.
Gold: 1253.60, +0.80. Gold broke through the 200 day SMA Wednesday during
that turmoil. Paused Thursday, sold Friday, reversed to hold the 200 day.
Rallied, paused, resumed.
MONDAY
The market certainly took on water Wednesday and did not redeem itself
through Friday. The indices are still trying to swim back upstream. Many
leaders such as NFLX, GOOG mirror that action, up but not strong. Many
other leaders, however, sport very good recoveries or did not fall victim to
the selling in the first place.
So, there are still leaders that look good and sectors that look very good.
Still, the fact that many leaders reversed hard off of new highs, and some
indices as well, raises a caution flag to see how the market responds this
week. In the past it has shrugged off these kind of half-weeks and
continued. Now with the insane, hyperventilating political news
environment, it is especially something to watch. Indeed, the latest story
today is that Comey is now changing his mind about whether there was
attempted political influence. Of course Comey lost whatever credibility he
had during the election by stepping in when he should have just done his job
quietly. Either he is truly a 'nut job' or he is just getting the same
treatment everyone in DC is getting these days.
The end result? It is up to the market to show if it will shake off these
issues and again overcome a market jolt. We have upside positions working
well. We have upside plays that look good if they can show the move. We
have more upside this weekend. We also have downside plays ready to go and
more this weekend. PWR turned in a great downside gain for us; we closed it
Thursday as it showed a bit of life after a 2+ week drop through the 200 day
SMA as we held May options.
As usual, you follow the leaders' lead, playing a bit cautiously right now
given the market jerky moves, but still recognizing good patterns and
potentially emerging leaders. Oil stocks look pretty darn solid in many
cases despite surging US production and more rigs churning; heck, there are
two rigs in my area and one well just completed. Nonetheless, these stocks
are setting up and moving higher. We picked up some BTE Friday and like
JONE if it can hold the move.
Okay, those are specifics. Overall the market has to prove it can hold and
move higher gain, but it does have groups trying to emerge even as it
struggles. Perhaps that is simply some rotation from the big names that
have led the move to this point, perhaps it is more insidious for the upside
than that. It is a positive there are new groups trying to improve and
others still working well, and we will see how the market shakes out this
week.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6083.70
Resistance:
The 10 day EMA at 6088
6170 is the recent all-time high
Support:
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
The 50 day EMA at 5965
The 50 day SMA at 5954
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
The 2016 trendline at 5864
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5544
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2381.73
Resistance:
The 2016 trendline at 2419
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 2369
The 50 day EMA at 2367
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2257
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 20,804.84
Resistance:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 20,775
The 50 day EMA at 20,738
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
The 200 day SMA at 19,571
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Sunday, May 14, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 5-13-17
* * * *
5/13/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: PWR
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Friday a microcosm of the recent action.
- NASDAQ, SOX lead higher while the NSYE indices continue to test.
- Same group of leaders into the weekend.
- CPI cooler but inflation is not in the prices.
- Retail sales are decent, but decent only.
- Move remains narrow but the market is throwing you winners.
Friday another off session for most of the market -- nothing new for the
NYSE indices, but for NASDAQ and SOX, it would be. Only, it wasn't. Both
NASDAQ and SOX managed gains, modest, but still gains. Apparently, when in
doubt, go for the status quo leaders: some FAANG (AAPL, AMZN, NFLX), some
chips (AVGO, MXL, NVDA), China (BITA, BABA, VIPS, YNDX), and a mix of
miscellaneous stocks (SSYS, SPLK, ZBRA).
Thus, while the overall market was again flat, there were again leaders.
That of course leads to questions about the market's ability to further
generate further upside, and indeed, it has lacked a major break higher --
if you discount NASDAQ and SOX. Both of those broke to higher highs of
late, and that is where the leaders are coming from.
SP500 -3.54, -0.15%
NASDAQ 5.27, 0.09%
DJ30 -22.81, -0.11%
SP400 -0.48%
RUTX -0.53%
SOX 0.27%
VOLUME: NYSE -11%, NASDAQ -11%. Dipping back below average after a very
nice string of above average volume, at least on NASDAQ's rise. NYSE trade
is lower on its lateral move, also better price/volume action.
A/D: NYSE -1.3:1, NASDAQ +1.4:1. Flat as you would expect.
So, no change, just the same leaders moving higher, the same indices moving
higher (kind of), and the same indices not going anywhere. Still in
position to move, but not finding any reason to do so.
Even so, when the market is down early, its tendency is to move back to the
upside. Did it Wednesday, Thursday, and indeed Friday, though Friday was
all over the map before it recovered.
Okay, so it finds the upside bias thanks to a group of leaders, it just
still cannot find reason enough to capitalize on some good NYSE index
pullbacks. Keep looking for NASDAQ and SOX to pull them up, still not
happening yet.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Not necessarily an easy task with the economic data coming in, though the
Friday data was a bit better though still passable.
Retail Sales grow, but at a 2017 low.
Retail Sales, April: 0.4% versus 0.6% expected versus 0.1% prior
(from -0.3%). 4.5% year/year growth.
Control Group: 0.2% versus 0.4% expected versus 0.7% prior (from 0.5%).
Some upside revisions helped paper over some rather disappointing April
numbers. Retail sales are yes still growing, but this no consumption
renaissance. Sales were at the 2017 low. JCP, JWN same store sales
plunged. Plunged. Department stores are in a sad death spiral. Hardly the
stuff of legendary months.
CPI heads the opposite way of PPI
CPI: 0.2% versus 0.2% expected versus -0.3% prior. 2.2% year/year versus
2.4%
Core: 0.1% versus 0.2% versus -0.1% prior. 1.9% year/year. This after 18
consecutive months over 2.0%, falling to a 19 month low.
So much for a stagflation argument -- this month. Thus far no pressure
pushing over from the PPI, and to be fair, often it does not cross over as
sellers try to absorb costs to avoid losing customers.
Ah, but that is kind of a lie isn't it? While they may not be raising
prices, they are 'getting even' in other ways. Have you noticed the
so-called silent inflation? You pay the same amount for an item to but the
package is slightly smaller or perhaps the same size but less contents? I
have noticed some manufactured products, while the same size, are 25% to 30%
lighter, using less steel to fabricate the same item. The thickness is
lessened, thus allowing for less material used. Of course it costs the SAME
as before, just made of less material. THAT is how manufacturers 'absorb'
the higher costs -- by passing them along to the consumer in a way other
than an overt price hike.
A similar inflation technique was used in the time of European kings and
monarchies: 'sweating' coins, i.e. putting coins in a leather bag and
violent shaking them to flake off gold from the coins, then collecting the
gold flakes and dust. The coin, after several sweating sessions, was well
short of the original amount of gold used to mint it.
So, yes, consumer inflation may appear low or lower, but it is all around
you, just not in the traditional price sense. So, once again we reveal that
the government numbers, the data painstakingly put together by the
professionals in the multitudinous government agencies is really not all
that helpful. Not knocking the job those people are doing, but I am
wondering why we are paying so many to put out data that does not accurately
measure what we are all experiencing. And believe me, those jobs will be
there long after all of the private sector jobs are burned away by events
such as the financial crisis and the 'recovery' we experienced the past 10
years. How on earth could the US have experienced such a great recovery as
we were told and still be losing more businesses per year than created? Of
course it cannot. Again, it is just numbers manipulated to make everyone
feel better.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SOX: Modest gain but nonetheless continuing the Wednesday gap to a new
post-2000 high. The chips continue as one of the best leadership groups,
rallying again after a bit of volatility during the late April/early March
lateral move.
NASDAQ: NASDAQ gained modestly Friday, continuing the move up the 10 day
EMA after its breakout to a new high in late April. NASDAQ has slowed its
ascent, but the move remains as the same leadership stocks continue to show
gains as noted at the first of the report. FAANG and friends still
garnering the bids.
SP500: Lower Friday, still fading from the high set just a week before.
SP500 gapped and rallied higher in late April, consolidated, rallied
modestly higher, and is not consolidating again, holding near the 10 day
EMA. Still in excellent position to make a new break higher. Still of
course waiting for that to happen. Friday C looked better; perhaps it can
lead a group of financials and thus help the SP500 make a breakout.
DJ30: Tight doji Friday at the 20 day EMA as the Dow tests back from its 2
week lateral consolidation. This perhaps is the shakeout that finally
launches DJ30 higher out of its three month consolidation.
SP400: The midcaps struggled to close the week after looking so good
Wednesday as they attempted a break higher. Once again that failed, and
they are at the 50 day MA's. Possibly a double bottom at that level that is
also at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April rally. Okay, the midcaps
tried an inverted head and shoulders that didn't pan out. put in a double
bottom that broke higher, and now are testing that move with another double
bottom.
RUTX: Same action as the midcaps, fading the hew high the past 2+ weeks,
falling to the 50 day MA's and 50% Fibonacci retracement Friday. That makes
for a small double bottom similar to SP400 and now we see if RUTX can make a
new upside break.
LEADERSHIP
Chips: AVGO breaking sharply higher. MXL ditto. Many quality stocks here
looking very good.
China: Another group that was strong, got a bit shaky, and now is looking
mostly good. BITA, VIPS, YNDX, SINA. SOHU is kind of the monkey in the
wrench, and NTES failed to hold an initial nice move on earnings.
FAANG: FB is in good shape to move and we are putting on a new play. AMZN,
AAPL, NFLX all moved well Friday and indeed on the week. GOOG was resting
with a nice 1-2-3 pullback to the end of the week.
Internet: Saw some rocks to end the week. LLNW surged Thursday but purged
to the 10 day EMA Friday. BCOR is still fine. GOOG looks good. VIPS up
big all week.
Machinery: Weaker to end the week but not bad at all with good test that
might set up good buys, e.g. CAT, CMI.
Oil stocks: Still setting up some decent patterns. HFC looks very good for
us. GPOR is set up well. JONE is slipping. BTE, however, is setting up
well.
Retail: Still Anti-leadership as JCP dove lower, JWN down even harder. M
still falling. For the non-department stores, WMT is testing a nice move,
AMZN is still moving up. Eateries are testing nicely, e.g. WEN, SONC.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -22.81 points (-0.11%) to close at 20896.61
Nasdaq
Stats: +5.27 points (+0.09%) to close at 6121.23
Volume: 1.74B (-11.22%)
Up Volume: 806.58M (-16.83M)
Down Volume: 907.31M (-202.69M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.38 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.73 to 1
New Highs: 118 (-3)
New Lows: 76 (+14)
S&P
Stats: -3.54 points (-0.15%) to close at 2390.9
NYSE Volume: 768.9M (-10.7%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.28 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.61 to 1
New Highs: 74 (-9)
New Lows: 41 (-2)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.4; -0.2
VXN: 12.3; -0.46
VXO: 9.56; -0.35
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; -0.06
Bulls and Bears: Despite the negativity, bulls rose and bears fell. Again,
still near that 60 level that has launched selloffs in the past, and there
is that string of 60+ closes still hanging over this rally. A return to 60+
would have us looking at a possible end to the upside after SP500, DJ30
break higher from their current pullbacks. Of course, with the rallying
bulls it could be that they don't breakout.
Bulls: 58.7 versus 58.5
Bears: 17.3 versus 17.9
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.7 versus 58.5
58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7
versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7
versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8
versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0
versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7
versus 45.2
Bears: 17.3 versus 17.9
17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3
versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7
versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6
versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5
versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8
versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.34% versus 2.393%. Bonds certainly rallied Friday after
trending lower all week. Gapped higher and moved back through the 50 day
MA's.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.393%
versus 2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus 2.322% versus
2.289% versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus 2.275%
versus 2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248% versus
2.232% versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus 2.37% versus 2.34%
versus 2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus 2.40% versus
2.41% versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40% versus 2.41%
versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus 2.529% versus
2.502% versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.09328 versus 1.08665. Euro makes a big jump higher off the 20
day EMA test. Still ready to continue the break higher.
Historical: 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984 versus
1.05906 versus 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus 1.06702 versus
1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus 1.08640 versus
1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214
USD/JPY: 113.349 versus 113.759. Modest test of the 10 day EMA after the
nice run higher.
Historical: 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus 113.217 versus
112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704 versus
110.022 versus 109.00 versus 109.357 versus 108.974 versus 108.525 versus
109.150 versus 109.170 versus 108.926 versus 109.691 versus 110.704 versus
111.096 versus 110.85 versus 110.794 versus 110.705 versus 111.386 versus
111.255 versus 111.114 versus 110.581 versus 111.335 versus 111.242 versus
111.295 versus 111.502 versus 112.289 versus 112.707 versus 113.349 versus
113.447 versus 114.726 versus 114.833 versus 114.807 versus 115.259 versus
114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus 114.042 versus 114.169 versus
113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus 112.169 versus 112.745 versus
113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus 113.356 versus 113.880 versus
114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus 113.265 versus 113.401 versus
112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815
Oil: 47.84, +0.01. Up on the week though flat Friday, sitting right at the
March lows. Some resistance is there.
Gold: 1227.70, +3.50. Modest bounce Thursday and Friday toward a 10 day
EMA test. Gold still under pressure.
MONDAY
Empire manufacturing Monday. Housing starts, Industrial production and
Capacity Tuesday. Philly Fed to end the week. A bit lighter on the
economic data front. Even earnings are winding on down.
Looks as if the market will be more or less on its own as the NYSE indices
try to follow the path of NASDAQ and SOX, i.e. to higher highs and actually
make them stick.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there are still a lot of good
setups out there, a lot of good leaders, at least the stocks we are
following and playing. There are of course many out there doing nowhere,
but there is potential for more to follow as this consolidation is allowing
more stocks to carve out good patterns. Oil stocks, for example, are trying
to make a new move to the upside. Machinery is setting up to rally again
just as chips and China stocks after they suffered a hiatus and some
volatility.
With plenty to choose from we will continue playing the stocks that are
making moves with the trend. Of course with the NYSE indices again in a
lateral to lower consolidation there is a lot of negativity about the
market's future. As noted last week, that type of sentiment is a positive
for the upside. I recall Tepper being nervous and the market bottoming and
surging. Gundlach is shorting. We will see. I will say when Tepper made
his comments NASDAQ was not punching out new highs.
Now don't get me wrong. Gundlach is very smart and may be right. The thing
is, the market is not showing it yet. Sure leadership is narrower than you
like, but it is also trying to expand some. Yes the stocks moving higher
are a limited group, but they are solid stocks and the indices are not
flopping. That said, this is no broad, lift all boats kind of move. So, we
play the upside because it is paying off, but you always watch for failed
breakouts, good moves that reverse, etc. as a normal course of watching the
market, even more so when leadership is a bit narrow.
Some great plays from a wide swath of sectors. Somewhat belies the
narrowness argument, but it is true the move upside is narrower than not.
Okay, so we play the stocks that are moving.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6121.23
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 6092
5937 is the all-time high from April, hit intraday
The 50 day EMA at 5937
The 50 day SMA at 5930
The 2016 trendline at 5835
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5521
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2390.99
Resistance:
The 2016 trendline at 2419
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 2368
The 50 day EMA at 2364
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2252
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
Dow: Closed at 20,896.61
Resistance:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 20,787
The 50 day EMA at 20,724
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 19,510
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
5/13/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: PWR
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Friday a microcosm of the recent action.
- NASDAQ, SOX lead higher while the NSYE indices continue to test.
- Same group of leaders into the weekend.
- CPI cooler but inflation is not in the prices.
- Retail sales are decent, but decent only.
- Move remains narrow but the market is throwing you winners.
Friday another off session for most of the market -- nothing new for the
NYSE indices, but for NASDAQ and SOX, it would be. Only, it wasn't. Both
NASDAQ and SOX managed gains, modest, but still gains. Apparently, when in
doubt, go for the status quo leaders: some FAANG (AAPL, AMZN, NFLX), some
chips (AVGO, MXL, NVDA), China (BITA, BABA, VIPS, YNDX), and a mix of
miscellaneous stocks (SSYS, SPLK, ZBRA).
Thus, while the overall market was again flat, there were again leaders.
That of course leads to questions about the market's ability to further
generate further upside, and indeed, it has lacked a major break higher --
if you discount NASDAQ and SOX. Both of those broke to higher highs of
late, and that is where the leaders are coming from.
SP500 -3.54, -0.15%
NASDAQ 5.27, 0.09%
DJ30 -22.81, -0.11%
SP400 -0.48%
RUTX -0.53%
SOX 0.27%
VOLUME: NYSE -11%, NASDAQ -11%. Dipping back below average after a very
nice string of above average volume, at least on NASDAQ's rise. NYSE trade
is lower on its lateral move, also better price/volume action.
A/D: NYSE -1.3:1, NASDAQ +1.4:1. Flat as you would expect.
So, no change, just the same leaders moving higher, the same indices moving
higher (kind of), and the same indices not going anywhere. Still in
position to move, but not finding any reason to do so.
Even so, when the market is down early, its tendency is to move back to the
upside. Did it Wednesday, Thursday, and indeed Friday, though Friday was
all over the map before it recovered.
Okay, so it finds the upside bias thanks to a group of leaders, it just
still cannot find reason enough to capitalize on some good NYSE index
pullbacks. Keep looking for NASDAQ and SOX to pull them up, still not
happening yet.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Not necessarily an easy task with the economic data coming in, though the
Friday data was a bit better though still passable.
Retail Sales grow, but at a 2017 low.
Retail Sales, April: 0.4% versus 0.6% expected versus 0.1% prior
(from -0.3%). 4.5% year/year growth.
Control Group: 0.2% versus 0.4% expected versus 0.7% prior (from 0.5%).
Some upside revisions helped paper over some rather disappointing April
numbers. Retail sales are yes still growing, but this no consumption
renaissance. Sales were at the 2017 low. JCP, JWN same store sales
plunged. Plunged. Department stores are in a sad death spiral. Hardly the
stuff of legendary months.
CPI heads the opposite way of PPI
CPI: 0.2% versus 0.2% expected versus -0.3% prior. 2.2% year/year versus
2.4%
Core: 0.1% versus 0.2% versus -0.1% prior. 1.9% year/year. This after 18
consecutive months over 2.0%, falling to a 19 month low.
So much for a stagflation argument -- this month. Thus far no pressure
pushing over from the PPI, and to be fair, often it does not cross over as
sellers try to absorb costs to avoid losing customers.
Ah, but that is kind of a lie isn't it? While they may not be raising
prices, they are 'getting even' in other ways. Have you noticed the
so-called silent inflation? You pay the same amount for an item to but the
package is slightly smaller or perhaps the same size but less contents? I
have noticed some manufactured products, while the same size, are 25% to 30%
lighter, using less steel to fabricate the same item. The thickness is
lessened, thus allowing for less material used. Of course it costs the SAME
as before, just made of less material. THAT is how manufacturers 'absorb'
the higher costs -- by passing them along to the consumer in a way other
than an overt price hike.
A similar inflation technique was used in the time of European kings and
monarchies: 'sweating' coins, i.e. putting coins in a leather bag and
violent shaking them to flake off gold from the coins, then collecting the
gold flakes and dust. The coin, after several sweating sessions, was well
short of the original amount of gold used to mint it.
So, yes, consumer inflation may appear low or lower, but it is all around
you, just not in the traditional price sense. So, once again we reveal that
the government numbers, the data painstakingly put together by the
professionals in the multitudinous government agencies is really not all
that helpful. Not knocking the job those people are doing, but I am
wondering why we are paying so many to put out data that does not accurately
measure what we are all experiencing. And believe me, those jobs will be
there long after all of the private sector jobs are burned away by events
such as the financial crisis and the 'recovery' we experienced the past 10
years. How on earth could the US have experienced such a great recovery as
we were told and still be losing more businesses per year than created? Of
course it cannot. Again, it is just numbers manipulated to make everyone
feel better.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SOX: Modest gain but nonetheless continuing the Wednesday gap to a new
post-2000 high. The chips continue as one of the best leadership groups,
rallying again after a bit of volatility during the late April/early March
lateral move.
NASDAQ: NASDAQ gained modestly Friday, continuing the move up the 10 day
EMA after its breakout to a new high in late April. NASDAQ has slowed its
ascent, but the move remains as the same leadership stocks continue to show
gains as noted at the first of the report. FAANG and friends still
garnering the bids.
SP500: Lower Friday, still fading from the high set just a week before.
SP500 gapped and rallied higher in late April, consolidated, rallied
modestly higher, and is not consolidating again, holding near the 10 day
EMA. Still in excellent position to make a new break higher. Still of
course waiting for that to happen. Friday C looked better; perhaps it can
lead a group of financials and thus help the SP500 make a breakout.
DJ30: Tight doji Friday at the 20 day EMA as the Dow tests back from its 2
week lateral consolidation. This perhaps is the shakeout that finally
launches DJ30 higher out of its three month consolidation.
SP400: The midcaps struggled to close the week after looking so good
Wednesday as they attempted a break higher. Once again that failed, and
they are at the 50 day MA's. Possibly a double bottom at that level that is
also at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April rally. Okay, the midcaps
tried an inverted head and shoulders that didn't pan out. put in a double
bottom that broke higher, and now are testing that move with another double
bottom.
RUTX: Same action as the midcaps, fading the hew high the past 2+ weeks,
falling to the 50 day MA's and 50% Fibonacci retracement Friday. That makes
for a small double bottom similar to SP400 and now we see if RUTX can make a
new upside break.
LEADERSHIP
Chips: AVGO breaking sharply higher. MXL ditto. Many quality stocks here
looking very good.
China: Another group that was strong, got a bit shaky, and now is looking
mostly good. BITA, VIPS, YNDX, SINA. SOHU is kind of the monkey in the
wrench, and NTES failed to hold an initial nice move on earnings.
FAANG: FB is in good shape to move and we are putting on a new play. AMZN,
AAPL, NFLX all moved well Friday and indeed on the week. GOOG was resting
with a nice 1-2-3 pullback to the end of the week.
Internet: Saw some rocks to end the week. LLNW surged Thursday but purged
to the 10 day EMA Friday. BCOR is still fine. GOOG looks good. VIPS up
big all week.
Machinery: Weaker to end the week but not bad at all with good test that
might set up good buys, e.g. CAT, CMI.
Oil stocks: Still setting up some decent patterns. HFC looks very good for
us. GPOR is set up well. JONE is slipping. BTE, however, is setting up
well.
Retail: Still Anti-leadership as JCP dove lower, JWN down even harder. M
still falling. For the non-department stores, WMT is testing a nice move,
AMZN is still moving up. Eateries are testing nicely, e.g. WEN, SONC.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -22.81 points (-0.11%) to close at 20896.61
Nasdaq
Stats: +5.27 points (+0.09%) to close at 6121.23
Volume: 1.74B (-11.22%)
Up Volume: 806.58M (-16.83M)
Down Volume: 907.31M (-202.69M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.38 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.73 to 1
New Highs: 118 (-3)
New Lows: 76 (+14)
S&P
Stats: -3.54 points (-0.15%) to close at 2390.9
NYSE Volume: 768.9M (-10.7%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.28 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.61 to 1
New Highs: 74 (-9)
New Lows: 41 (-2)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.4; -0.2
VXN: 12.3; -0.46
VXO: 9.56; -0.35
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; -0.06
Bulls and Bears: Despite the negativity, bulls rose and bears fell. Again,
still near that 60 level that has launched selloffs in the past, and there
is that string of 60+ closes still hanging over this rally. A return to 60+
would have us looking at a possible end to the upside after SP500, DJ30
break higher from their current pullbacks. Of course, with the rallying
bulls it could be that they don't breakout.
Bulls: 58.7 versus 58.5
Bears: 17.3 versus 17.9
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.7 versus 58.5
58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7
versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7
versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8
versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0
versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7
versus 45.2
Bears: 17.3 versus 17.9
17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3
versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7
versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6
versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5
versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8
versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.34% versus 2.393%. Bonds certainly rallied Friday after
trending lower all week. Gapped higher and moved back through the 50 day
MA's.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.393%
versus 2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus 2.322% versus
2.289% versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus 2.275%
versus 2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248% versus
2.232% versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus 2.37% versus 2.34%
versus 2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus 2.40% versus
2.41% versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40% versus 2.41%
versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus 2.529% versus
2.502% versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.09328 versus 1.08665. Euro makes a big jump higher off the 20
day EMA test. Still ready to continue the break higher.
Historical: 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984 versus
1.05906 versus 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus 1.06702 versus
1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus 1.08640 versus
1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214
USD/JPY: 113.349 versus 113.759. Modest test of the 10 day EMA after the
nice run higher.
Historical: 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus 113.217 versus
112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704 versus
110.022 versus 109.00 versus 109.357 versus 108.974 versus 108.525 versus
109.150 versus 109.170 versus 108.926 versus 109.691 versus 110.704 versus
111.096 versus 110.85 versus 110.794 versus 110.705 versus 111.386 versus
111.255 versus 111.114 versus 110.581 versus 111.335 versus 111.242 versus
111.295 versus 111.502 versus 112.289 versus 112.707 versus 113.349 versus
113.447 versus 114.726 versus 114.833 versus 114.807 versus 115.259 versus
114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus 114.042 versus 114.169 versus
113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus 112.169 versus 112.745 versus
113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus 113.356 versus 113.880 versus
114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus 113.265 versus 113.401 versus
112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815
Oil: 47.84, +0.01. Up on the week though flat Friday, sitting right at the
March lows. Some resistance is there.
Gold: 1227.70, +3.50. Modest bounce Thursday and Friday toward a 10 day
EMA test. Gold still under pressure.
MONDAY
Empire manufacturing Monday. Housing starts, Industrial production and
Capacity Tuesday. Philly Fed to end the week. A bit lighter on the
economic data front. Even earnings are winding on down.
Looks as if the market will be more or less on its own as the NYSE indices
try to follow the path of NASDAQ and SOX, i.e. to higher highs and actually
make them stick.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there are still a lot of good
setups out there, a lot of good leaders, at least the stocks we are
following and playing. There are of course many out there doing nowhere,
but there is potential for more to follow as this consolidation is allowing
more stocks to carve out good patterns. Oil stocks, for example, are trying
to make a new move to the upside. Machinery is setting up to rally again
just as chips and China stocks after they suffered a hiatus and some
volatility.
With plenty to choose from we will continue playing the stocks that are
making moves with the trend. Of course with the NYSE indices again in a
lateral to lower consolidation there is a lot of negativity about the
market's future. As noted last week, that type of sentiment is a positive
for the upside. I recall Tepper being nervous and the market bottoming and
surging. Gundlach is shorting. We will see. I will say when Tepper made
his comments NASDAQ was not punching out new highs.
Now don't get me wrong. Gundlach is very smart and may be right. The thing
is, the market is not showing it yet. Sure leadership is narrower than you
like, but it is also trying to expand some. Yes the stocks moving higher
are a limited group, but they are solid stocks and the indices are not
flopping. That said, this is no broad, lift all boats kind of move. So, we
play the upside because it is paying off, but you always watch for failed
breakouts, good moves that reverse, etc. as a normal course of watching the
market, even more so when leadership is a bit narrow.
Some great plays from a wide swath of sectors. Somewhat belies the
narrowness argument, but it is true the move upside is narrower than not.
Okay, so we play the stocks that are moving.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6121.23
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 6092
5937 is the all-time high from April, hit intraday
The 50 day EMA at 5937
The 50 day SMA at 5930
The 2016 trendline at 5835
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5521
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2390.99
Resistance:
The 2016 trendline at 2419
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 2368
The 50 day EMA at 2364
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2252
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
Dow: Closed at 20,896.61
Resistance:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 20,787
The 50 day EMA at 20,724
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 19,510
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Sunday, May 07, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 5-6-17
* * * *
5/6/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: PXLW
Entry alerts: XLNX; YNDX
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Modest breaks higher Friday look positive for a new breakout, but still
waiting on the French.
- Jobs Report looks better, but without any real economic changes, the same
issues remain.
- SP500 posts a new high, NASDAQ bounces after two day's rest. Trying to
lead higher.
- The stage is set for the next move higher, now we see if the world
cooperates.
There were indeed signs of life Friday in the NYSE indices that had appeared
to be terminally bored to death. SP500, SP400, RUTX put for the respectable
moves off the lows in their pullbacks. Even DJ30 did pretty well
considering IBM was another massive drag upon that index with a 2.5% loss
after Buffett revealed he had sold a third of his position (and since then I
would bet he has sold more of his position but that won't be revealed until
he absolutely has to).
They were not huge breaks higher, but they were showing the right moves as
SP500 cleared the highs in its 2 week lateral consolidation. Volume was
lousy, but we will give it a pass on that for the session.
SP500 9.77, 0.41%
NASDAQ 25.42, 0.42%
DJ30 55.47, 0.42%
SP400 0.83%
RUTX 0.59%
SOX 0.42%
VOLUME: NYSE -17%, NASDAQ -8%. Trade fell to just below average on NYSE,
held just above average on NASDAQ.
A/D: NYSE 2.6:1, NASDAQ 1.4:1. Nothing spectacular, but we also expect
NASDAQ to be a bit weaker than the NYSE because NASDAQ rallied nicely and is
testing while the NYSE indices are attempting a break higher.
Perhaps the jobs report at 211K versus the 180K expected and the paltry 79K
from March was actually a catalyst. I don't think it hurt, but if it was a
catalyst, it didn't have investors jumping for joy. Maybe in combination
with the House passing a healthcare reform bill Thursday and oil not diving
lower for a session it was able to help cobble together a move perhaps help
some new breaks higher in the NYSE indices.
Interesting that the market did hold onto gains ahead of the French election
Sunday. The belief is very US 2016-like in that everyone believes Marcon is
a sure bet, primarily because the polls appeared to be an accurate gauge in
the initial election. Could be, but I am reading a lot of on the ground
reporting about how many groups from the LGBT to the small businesses prefer
Le Pen over the perceived establishment banker candidate. We will see. If
Le Pen does win, then the markets may have a Frexit fit.
As of the Friday close, however, the US markets appeared comfortable with
the lay of the land. The Fed saw the recent economic data slowdowns as
transitory and thus stuck to its rate hike guns. Oil reached way down to
the November, September, and May lows, really the support in its trading
range, and rebounded to positive. Oil could very well be at the bottom of
its range and prepping for a bounce. Despite comments that healthcare was
DOA in the Senate, the House did pass a bill and the Senate will work on its
own bill. The process is in the process of working. Good thing it is.
Maryland's insurer just filed seeking at 50% premium increase in 2018.
Jobs Report
211K versus 180K expected versus 79K March (from 98K)
Unemployment: 4.4% versus 4.6% versus 4.5% prior
Average earnings: 0.3% versus 0.3% expected versus 0.1% March (from 0.2%)
Year/year: 2.5% versus 2.7% March.
Workweek: 34.4 versus 34.3 March. Positive, positive.
Participation: 62.9% versus 63.0% March
94.375M working aged people not in the workforce. Highest level in 2017.
Where the jobs are:
Leisure and hospitality: 55K
Healthcare: 37K
Professional and Business Services: 39K
Food Services: 26K
Mining: 9K
Retail: +6.3K (from -27K March, -29K February)
Manufacturing: 6K (from 13K March)
Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale Trade, Longshore/Dock: All basically
unchanged.
Okay, okay. The $10B question. How with a 4.4% unemployment rate, called
'full employment by many, are wages unable to rise?
Answer: It is the kind of jobs created. Retail returned to positive growth,
but that is a low-wage category. Leisure and hospitality, Food services
combined for 81K. Business services saw 9.9K of those jobs (25%) go to
'services to buildings and dwellings.' As one commentator put it, more
doormen were hired.
These jobs still dominate, and indeed in April they became a larger
percentage of all jobs as they have been for years. March, despite its
lower overall jobs numbers, was qualitatively better as the jobs created
were a much higher percentage of better paying jobs. What does that mean?
The better paying jobs are still not very plentiful, and the swing jobs are
the lower paying jobs in retail and similar sectors.
Thus, even with lower unemployment you get lower wages because those taking
the jobs are taking lower paying jobs, dragging down the hourly average.
Again that begs the question: are more jobs necessarily better, do they show
true economic recovery? If you compare to the jobs lost in the 2007-2009
recession, no. Replacing quality, well-paying jobs with low quality,
low-pay jobs is NOT an equitable trade. Thus all of the gloating about the
jobs created the past 10 years is bunk. We need to create standard of
living improving jobs, and that is where tax, healthcare, and regulatory
play a huge role. Time to get them done and time to start growing real
jobs.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP500: A new all-time closing high Friday as SP500 cleared the April/May
flat range/handle. Nice price move but volume lagged, falling back below
average. Okay, not a clear launch higher and Monday is more of a litmus
test after the French election, but it certainly made the right move and
rather timely given the 10 day EMA had just caught up with SP500 Wednesday
and Thursday.
DJ30: Broke higher but could not clear the range as IBM weighed on the Dow
once again. Moved higher up off the 10 day EMA, a good hold of support it
found Wednesday, but there was no volume power here either. Still looks
solid, just needs to expand the move this week.
SP400: Nice doji with tail at the 50 day MA's, Thursday followed by a gap
higher and a close at the session high Friday. Much lower in the handle
formation than SP500 or DJ30, so a 0.83% move did not bring it anywhere near
the prior highs. It did bounce where it technically should have, however.
RUTX: After the Thursday doji that tapped the 50 day MA's on the low and
rebounded, Friday saw some upside as RUTX moved over the interim highs in
the base as well as the tops of the December/February trading range. Held
at an important support level, decent bounce. Now it has to really deliver
upside this week.
NASDAQ: Gapped lower Wednesday but easily held over the 10 day EMA. Friday
NASDAQ gapped back upside edged to a new closing high. Not much of a
rest/test, but NASDAQ did pause. It may want to lead higher from here if
all things remain equal, e.g. the French election.
SOX: Did not really participate in Friday's modest bounce. Upside yes, but
more working laterally over the 20 day EMA than breaking higher, at least
not yet.
LEADERSHIP
Oil stocks: Some may be working on setting a relief move, e.g. BHI, APA,
BTE. We are watching them.
Semiconductors: Still very mixed but some good moves. XLNX, PXLW, SIMO,
BRKS all worked decently to very well on the week. PLAB remains set to move
higher again. AVGO broke higher.
Internet: Continues its strength. BCOR put on a strong showing for us.
LLNW is bouncing off a nice 1-2-3 test. EXPE enjoyed a strong week as did
GOOG.
Biotechs/Drugs: Struggling as many of the prior leaders are trying to hold
onto bids, e.g. CNAT. AUPH still holds a good pattern.
Retail: Still moving higher including the department stores (e.g. DDS,
JWN). DLTR, DG pausing after a move though WMT continues higher. EBAY is
hanging on while AMZN puts in a good 10 day EMA test to set up the new leg
higher. RH gaped higher Friday.
Financial: Promising, but still not making the moves, e.g. JPM. C, BAC did
break higher midweek but stalled out some to end the week. Others in asset
management look good, e.g. KKR.
FAANG: FB testing the 10 day EMA in a rather normal move. AAPL announced
earnings, tested the 10 day EMA, then Friday was at a new all-time high.
AMZN putting in a nice flag test. NFLX rallied nicely on the week though
off some Friday. GOOG rested Friday but enjoyed a very strong week as it
extended its earnings run.
Machinery: Tested a bit deeper but the bases are still good, e.g. CMI, CAT.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +55.47 points (+0.26%) to close at 21006.94
Nasdaq
Stats: +25.42 points (+0.42%) to close at 6100.76
Volume: 1.9B (-7.77%)
Up Volume: 1.29B (+391.16M)
Down Volume: 582.97M (-547.03M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.39 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.17 to 1
New Highs: 183 (+46)
New Lows: 75 (-7)
S&P
Stats: +9.77 points (+0.41%) to close at 2399.29
NYSE Volume: 826.7M (-17.33%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.62 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.76 to 1
New Highs: 183 (+40)
New Lows: 28 (-67)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.57; +0.11
VXN: 12.31; +0.13
VXO: 9.93; -0.63
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; +0.09. 2 of the last 3 days were 1.0 or better.
A little market lateral movement and the put buyers rush in.
Bulls and Bears: Somewhat disconcerting to see the bulls charging back near
60 so quickly. That string of 60+ closes is still hanging over this rally,
and a return to 60+ would have us looking at a possible end to the upside
after SP500, DJ30 break higher from their current pullbacks. Of course,
with the rallying bulls it could be that they don't breakout.
Bulls: 58.5 versus 54.7
Bears: 17.9 versus 17.9
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.5 versus 54.7
54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4
versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8
versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8
versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9
versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 17.9 versus 17.9
17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus
13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus
17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.354% versus 2.322%. Holding at the 50 day SMA with a
doji. The FOMC indicated all is 'go' for a June rate hike. Bonds
predictably sold but then held the 50 day, looking as if they want to try a
bounce. For some reason, perhaps economic data, bonds are not breaking down.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.322%
versus 2.289% versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus
2.275% versus 2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248%
versus 2.232% versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus 2.37% versus
2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus 2.40%
versus 2.41% versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40% versus
2.41% versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus 2.529%
versus 2.502% versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.09994 versus 1.09086. Euro continues the breakout versus the
dollar. Now would it not be rather hilarious of Le Pen won the French
election. The euro would reverse violently.
Historical: 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984 versus
1.05906 versus 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus 1.06702 versus
1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus 1.08640 versus
1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214
USD/JPY: 112.683 versus 112.495
Historical: 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704 versus
110.022 versus 109.00 versus 109.357 versus 108.974 versus 108.525 versus
109.150 versus 109.170 versus 108.926 versus 109.691 versus 110.704 versus
111.096 versus 110.85 versus 110.794 versus 110.705 versus 111.386 versus
111.255 versus 111.114 versus 110.581 versus 111.335 versus 111.242 versus
111.295 versus 111.502 versus 112.289 versus 112.707 versus 113.349 versus
113.447 versus 114.726 versus 114.833 versus 114.807 versus 115.259 versus
114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus 114.042 versus 114.169 versus
113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus 112.169 versus 112.745 versus
113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus 113.356 versus 113.880 versus
114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus 113.265 versus 113.401 versus
112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815
Oil: 46.22, +0.70. Oil reached way down to 43.80 then reversed to a gain.
It tested the lows in the range from November 2016 and reversed. An upside
roll in the range looks very possible.
Gold: 1226.90, -1.70. Gapped lower and sold Thursday, unable to hold a
bounce Friday. Gold has gapped sharply lower through support and does not
look well.
MONDAY
Friday gave the appearance the NYSE indices were ready to make the next
break higher. SP500 led the move with a solid advance through the highs of
the recent range. That was about all there was. That is not bad, but a
Friday move on lighter volume is not necessarily a harbinger of a continued
and stronger move the following week.
That is true, but then again, the market is not giving up the moves.
Indeed, it has consolidated in a tight range and is starting to break
higher. NASDAQ even bounced upside after a very brief respite. The right
kind of moves off this setup. Now will they still be there Monday post
French election and continue higher?
We have some great upside plays we are looking at to start the week. It
even looks as if some oil stocks will be ready to move as the week
progresses, predicated in large part on oil's selloff to the bottom of its
range. There are indeed several possible sectors to help push the market
higher if the status quo, and that includes the French election, continue
falling in place.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6100.76
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 6046
5937 is the all-time high from April, hit intraday
The 50 day SMA at 5904
The 50 day EMA at 5897
The 2016 trendline at 5801
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5495
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2399.29
Resistance:
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 2016 trendline at 2409
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 2366
The 50 day EMA at 2357
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2246
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
Dow: Closed at 21,006.94
Resistance:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 20,784
The 50 day EMA at 20,675
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 19,449
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time highs
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
5/6/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: PXLW
Entry alerts: XLNX; YNDX
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Modest breaks higher Friday look positive for a new breakout, but still
waiting on the French.
- Jobs Report looks better, but without any real economic changes, the same
issues remain.
- SP500 posts a new high, NASDAQ bounces after two day's rest. Trying to
lead higher.
- The stage is set for the next move higher, now we see if the world
cooperates.
There were indeed signs of life Friday in the NYSE indices that had appeared
to be terminally bored to death. SP500, SP400, RUTX put for the respectable
moves off the lows in their pullbacks. Even DJ30 did pretty well
considering IBM was another massive drag upon that index with a 2.5% loss
after Buffett revealed he had sold a third of his position (and since then I
would bet he has sold more of his position but that won't be revealed until
he absolutely has to).
They were not huge breaks higher, but they were showing the right moves as
SP500 cleared the highs in its 2 week lateral consolidation. Volume was
lousy, but we will give it a pass on that for the session.
SP500 9.77, 0.41%
NASDAQ 25.42, 0.42%
DJ30 55.47, 0.42%
SP400 0.83%
RUTX 0.59%
SOX 0.42%
VOLUME: NYSE -17%, NASDAQ -8%. Trade fell to just below average on NYSE,
held just above average on NASDAQ.
A/D: NYSE 2.6:1, NASDAQ 1.4:1. Nothing spectacular, but we also expect
NASDAQ to be a bit weaker than the NYSE because NASDAQ rallied nicely and is
testing while the NYSE indices are attempting a break higher.
Perhaps the jobs report at 211K versus the 180K expected and the paltry 79K
from March was actually a catalyst. I don't think it hurt, but if it was a
catalyst, it didn't have investors jumping for joy. Maybe in combination
with the House passing a healthcare reform bill Thursday and oil not diving
lower for a session it was able to help cobble together a move perhaps help
some new breaks higher in the NYSE indices.
Interesting that the market did hold onto gains ahead of the French election
Sunday. The belief is very US 2016-like in that everyone believes Marcon is
a sure bet, primarily because the polls appeared to be an accurate gauge in
the initial election. Could be, but I am reading a lot of on the ground
reporting about how many groups from the LGBT to the small businesses prefer
Le Pen over the perceived establishment banker candidate. We will see. If
Le Pen does win, then the markets may have a Frexit fit.
As of the Friday close, however, the US markets appeared comfortable with
the lay of the land. The Fed saw the recent economic data slowdowns as
transitory and thus stuck to its rate hike guns. Oil reached way down to
the November, September, and May lows, really the support in its trading
range, and rebounded to positive. Oil could very well be at the bottom of
its range and prepping for a bounce. Despite comments that healthcare was
DOA in the Senate, the House did pass a bill and the Senate will work on its
own bill. The process is in the process of working. Good thing it is.
Maryland's insurer just filed seeking at 50% premium increase in 2018.
Jobs Report
211K versus 180K expected versus 79K March (from 98K)
Unemployment: 4.4% versus 4.6% versus 4.5% prior
Average earnings: 0.3% versus 0.3% expected versus 0.1% March (from 0.2%)
Year/year: 2.5% versus 2.7% March.
Workweek: 34.4 versus 34.3 March. Positive, positive.
Participation: 62.9% versus 63.0% March
94.375M working aged people not in the workforce. Highest level in 2017.
Where the jobs are:
Leisure and hospitality: 55K
Healthcare: 37K
Professional and Business Services: 39K
Food Services: 26K
Mining: 9K
Retail: +6.3K (from -27K March, -29K February)
Manufacturing: 6K (from 13K March)
Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale Trade, Longshore/Dock: All basically
unchanged.
Okay, okay. The $10B question. How with a 4.4% unemployment rate, called
'full employment by many, are wages unable to rise?
Answer: It is the kind of jobs created. Retail returned to positive growth,
but that is a low-wage category. Leisure and hospitality, Food services
combined for 81K. Business services saw 9.9K of those jobs (25%) go to
'services to buildings and dwellings.' As one commentator put it, more
doormen were hired.
These jobs still dominate, and indeed in April they became a larger
percentage of all jobs as they have been for years. March, despite its
lower overall jobs numbers, was qualitatively better as the jobs created
were a much higher percentage of better paying jobs. What does that mean?
The better paying jobs are still not very plentiful, and the swing jobs are
the lower paying jobs in retail and similar sectors.
Thus, even with lower unemployment you get lower wages because those taking
the jobs are taking lower paying jobs, dragging down the hourly average.
Again that begs the question: are more jobs necessarily better, do they show
true economic recovery? If you compare to the jobs lost in the 2007-2009
recession, no. Replacing quality, well-paying jobs with low quality,
low-pay jobs is NOT an equitable trade. Thus all of the gloating about the
jobs created the past 10 years is bunk. We need to create standard of
living improving jobs, and that is where tax, healthcare, and regulatory
play a huge role. Time to get them done and time to start growing real
jobs.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP500: A new all-time closing high Friday as SP500 cleared the April/May
flat range/handle. Nice price move but volume lagged, falling back below
average. Okay, not a clear launch higher and Monday is more of a litmus
test after the French election, but it certainly made the right move and
rather timely given the 10 day EMA had just caught up with SP500 Wednesday
and Thursday.
DJ30: Broke higher but could not clear the range as IBM weighed on the Dow
once again. Moved higher up off the 10 day EMA, a good hold of support it
found Wednesday, but there was no volume power here either. Still looks
solid, just needs to expand the move this week.
SP400: Nice doji with tail at the 50 day MA's, Thursday followed by a gap
higher and a close at the session high Friday. Much lower in the handle
formation than SP500 or DJ30, so a 0.83% move did not bring it anywhere near
the prior highs. It did bounce where it technically should have, however.
RUTX: After the Thursday doji that tapped the 50 day MA's on the low and
rebounded, Friday saw some upside as RUTX moved over the interim highs in
the base as well as the tops of the December/February trading range. Held
at an important support level, decent bounce. Now it has to really deliver
upside this week.
NASDAQ: Gapped lower Wednesday but easily held over the 10 day EMA. Friday
NASDAQ gapped back upside edged to a new closing high. Not much of a
rest/test, but NASDAQ did pause. It may want to lead higher from here if
all things remain equal, e.g. the French election.
SOX: Did not really participate in Friday's modest bounce. Upside yes, but
more working laterally over the 20 day EMA than breaking higher, at least
not yet.
LEADERSHIP
Oil stocks: Some may be working on setting a relief move, e.g. BHI, APA,
BTE. We are watching them.
Semiconductors: Still very mixed but some good moves. XLNX, PXLW, SIMO,
BRKS all worked decently to very well on the week. PLAB remains set to move
higher again. AVGO broke higher.
Internet: Continues its strength. BCOR put on a strong showing for us.
LLNW is bouncing off a nice 1-2-3 test. EXPE enjoyed a strong week as did
GOOG.
Biotechs/Drugs: Struggling as many of the prior leaders are trying to hold
onto bids, e.g. CNAT. AUPH still holds a good pattern.
Retail: Still moving higher including the department stores (e.g. DDS,
JWN). DLTR, DG pausing after a move though WMT continues higher. EBAY is
hanging on while AMZN puts in a good 10 day EMA test to set up the new leg
higher. RH gaped higher Friday.
Financial: Promising, but still not making the moves, e.g. JPM. C, BAC did
break higher midweek but stalled out some to end the week. Others in asset
management look good, e.g. KKR.
FAANG: FB testing the 10 day EMA in a rather normal move. AAPL announced
earnings, tested the 10 day EMA, then Friday was at a new all-time high.
AMZN putting in a nice flag test. NFLX rallied nicely on the week though
off some Friday. GOOG rested Friday but enjoyed a very strong week as it
extended its earnings run.
Machinery: Tested a bit deeper but the bases are still good, e.g. CMI, CAT.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +55.47 points (+0.26%) to close at 21006.94
Nasdaq
Stats: +25.42 points (+0.42%) to close at 6100.76
Volume: 1.9B (-7.77%)
Up Volume: 1.29B (+391.16M)
Down Volume: 582.97M (-547.03M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.39 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.17 to 1
New Highs: 183 (+46)
New Lows: 75 (-7)
S&P
Stats: +9.77 points (+0.41%) to close at 2399.29
NYSE Volume: 826.7M (-17.33%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.62 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.76 to 1
New Highs: 183 (+40)
New Lows: 28 (-67)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.57; +0.11
VXN: 12.31; +0.13
VXO: 9.93; -0.63
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; +0.09. 2 of the last 3 days were 1.0 or better.
A little market lateral movement and the put buyers rush in.
Bulls and Bears: Somewhat disconcerting to see the bulls charging back near
60 so quickly. That string of 60+ closes is still hanging over this rally,
and a return to 60+ would have us looking at a possible end to the upside
after SP500, DJ30 break higher from their current pullbacks. Of course,
with the rallying bulls it could be that they don't breakout.
Bulls: 58.5 versus 54.7
Bears: 17.9 versus 17.9
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.5 versus 54.7
54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4
versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8
versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8
versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9
versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 17.9 versus 17.9
17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus
13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus
17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.354% versus 2.322%. Holding at the 50 day SMA with a
doji. The FOMC indicated all is 'go' for a June rate hike. Bonds
predictably sold but then held the 50 day, looking as if they want to try a
bounce. For some reason, perhaps economic data, bonds are not breaking down.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.322%
versus 2.289% versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus
2.275% versus 2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248%
versus 2.232% versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus 2.37% versus
2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus 2.40%
versus 2.41% versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40% versus
2.41% versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus 2.529%
versus 2.502% versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.09994 versus 1.09086. Euro continues the breakout versus the
dollar. Now would it not be rather hilarious of Le Pen won the French
election. The euro would reverse violently.
Historical: 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984 versus
1.05906 versus 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus 1.06702 versus
1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus 1.08640 versus
1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214
USD/JPY: 112.683 versus 112.495
Historical: 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704 versus
110.022 versus 109.00 versus 109.357 versus 108.974 versus 108.525 versus
109.150 versus 109.170 versus 108.926 versus 109.691 versus 110.704 versus
111.096 versus 110.85 versus 110.794 versus 110.705 versus 111.386 versus
111.255 versus 111.114 versus 110.581 versus 111.335 versus 111.242 versus
111.295 versus 111.502 versus 112.289 versus 112.707 versus 113.349 versus
113.447 versus 114.726 versus 114.833 versus 114.807 versus 115.259 versus
114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus 114.042 versus 114.169 versus
113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus 112.169 versus 112.745 versus
113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus 113.356 versus 113.880 versus
114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus 113.265 versus 113.401 versus
112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815
Oil: 46.22, +0.70. Oil reached way down to 43.80 then reversed to a gain.
It tested the lows in the range from November 2016 and reversed. An upside
roll in the range looks very possible.
Gold: 1226.90, -1.70. Gapped lower and sold Thursday, unable to hold a
bounce Friday. Gold has gapped sharply lower through support and does not
look well.
MONDAY
Friday gave the appearance the NYSE indices were ready to make the next
break higher. SP500 led the move with a solid advance through the highs of
the recent range. That was about all there was. That is not bad, but a
Friday move on lighter volume is not necessarily a harbinger of a continued
and stronger move the following week.
That is true, but then again, the market is not giving up the moves.
Indeed, it has consolidated in a tight range and is starting to break
higher. NASDAQ even bounced upside after a very brief respite. The right
kind of moves off this setup. Now will they still be there Monday post
French election and continue higher?
We have some great upside plays we are looking at to start the week. It
even looks as if some oil stocks will be ready to move as the week
progresses, predicated in large part on oil's selloff to the bottom of its
range. There are indeed several possible sectors to help push the market
higher if the status quo, and that includes the French election, continue
falling in place.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6100.76
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 6046
5937 is the all-time high from April, hit intraday
The 50 day SMA at 5904
The 50 day EMA at 5897
The 2016 trendline at 5801
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5495
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2399.29
Resistance:
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 2016 trendline at 2409
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 2366
The 50 day EMA at 2357
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2246
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
Dow: Closed at 21,006.94
Resistance:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 20,784
The 50 day EMA at 20,675
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 19,449
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time highs
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)