* * * *
3/25/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: IMMU; PENN
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
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********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks hang on for a vote, and when one does not come give back some gains
but not all.
- A somewhat muted reaction to the healthcare bill failure.
- We will see how resilient the investors are even as US citizens have to
gird for the failure of all our leaders to help solve the healthcare
problem.
- Still some very good leadership but we must be ready either direction when
the market shows its decision.
We are going to see just how much hope there is, just how resilient the
investor psyche is. President Trump is, deserved or not, now 0 for 2 in his
major initiatives.
The immigration ban was ruled unconstitutional by a few judges. Ironically
a majority of the Ninth Circuit justices (5) have said the ORIGINAL order,
despite their philosophical objections, was constitutional. Why the DOJ did
not ask for a rehearing en banc, i.e. of the entire court, is beyond me.
Second, the House could not even come up with a healthcare replacement bill
after seven years vowing it would, including dozens of Don Quixote-esque
House votes repealing the ACA. The stumbling block: the establishment GOP
convinced Trump there had to be a multi-stage replacement, that most of the
bill could not be handled in reconciliation. That is flat out wrong from
what the House parliamentarian and constitutional experts (experts, not
scholars; the two are completely different) are saying.
As a result, what the House got to vote on (well, actually not), was Ryan's
secretly written, insurer-welfare establishment baby, a bill that maintains
federal control over healthcare, the very thing many of the republicans were
elected NOT to do. Ironically, many of those in the GOP fervently
supporting the bill this process generated were those indignant that the
democrats wrote the ACA in secret and forced it upon them with no input,
discussion or amendments. Contrast that to those elected in the past three
cycles who actually have a conscience and actually vow to uphold their
promises. The President disappointed many in that he was, in many views,
hoodwinked by the establishment and simply did not do what he said he would
do and then make the republican majority hold to their promises to the
people who elected them.
Thus, healthcare reform is off the table, and we are told it will just be
left to crash as Obama knew it would crash after he left office given the
enforcement delays and multitudes of waivers granted. That is somewhat
true, but it is not an acceptable solution as it only continues, and
according to the administration's own statements will worsen, the burdens on
the Middle Class already crushed by the ACA. As it is they are forced to
buy incredibly expensive insurance and then have no money to pay the
deductibles. They buy something they cannot hope to use and thus are FORCED
to forgo medical care even though they are FORCED to have insurance to cover
that medical care. The utter lack of free choice in a supposedly free
enterprise system is shocking in America. The ironies are the sharpest I
have ever seen. They are also the most bitter: the life expectancy of
Americans is declining under this system, something that should never and
until now has NEVER happened in the history of the US.
With healthcare now in limbo, the Administration turns to tax reform,
something Trump says it would have been nice to do first but that it really
needed the ACA out of the way. Yes, nice because the ACA is a tax feeding
trough, taxing Americans at every turn. Repealing the ACA would eliminate
$1T+ in taxes over the next 10 years, but that is now moot, taken off the
table. So with those taxes still in place the question arises: will Trump
have any more success with other taxes? Will there truly be tax reform
versus the usual band aids applied to a horrendous system where the due
process protections of the fifth and fourteen amendments no longer apply?
Given the fixes proposed, this is highly doubtful.
Perhaps this is the art of deal, not playing the game that the establishment
plays. Maybe lifting the bill was the shock result that brings them back to
the table. Waiting until the system collapses is what many of the ACA
proponents wanted, a stepping stone to total single payer healthcare
designed to fail in the first place while making it impossible to fix.
Mission accomplished! Regardless, we all suffer in the interim as the
promises of the election are deferred. During this period awaiting
collapse, many small businesses and families will collapse under the
financial burdens. Already strapped to the maximum, they do not have the
time or resources to wait it out. A bill that was supposed to help save
families and businesses from catastrophic events has become the catastrophic
event that has sucked away their livelihoods and lives. Another bitter
irony.
Back to the market and its resilience.
With that backdrop, how will the market react to this pivot to tax reform?
As noted, an 0 for 2 start is not encouraging. Is Trump 'due' as they say
in baseball? Will the market wait around to see if he gets a hit or avoid
the Christmas rush and wait and see? Yes, yes, I mixed my metaphors.
Friday was a toss up. A stronger start to the session ran into afternoon
trouble as stories started to leak the Ryan bill would be pulled, that there
would be no vote.
SP500 -1.98, -0.08%
NASDAQ 11.05, 0.19%
DJ30 -59.86, -0.29%
SP400 0.12%
RUTX 0.09%
SOX 0.75%
VOLUME: NYSE -2%, NASDAQ +5%.
A/D: NYSE 1.1:1; NASDAQ 1.3:1
There will be arm-twisting this weekend and the usual DC trick bag will be
opened in an attempt to surprise everyone with an early session Monday vote.
THAT is the art of the deal at work. Appear to pivot then when no one
expects it, pivot right back and get it done.
Perhaps that is why the market did not out and out crash Friday when the
news came out. Perhaps Wall Street traders have all bought a copy of 'The
Art of the Deal' and actually read it. Bully for them.
But this is no business negotiation. The entrenched bureaucracy has no
desire to make any deal with someone who wants to diminish the bureaucracy.
That is a different mindset from business entities and agencies that
actually WANT to make some changes.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
DJ30: Making its way close to the 50 day MA as anticipated, tapping at that
support on the Friday low, rebounding some to close. Low volume, no heavy
selling after that Tuesday drop. Okay, the Dow has made its test, more or
less, and if it is going to continue rallying, this is the range it should
start.
SP500: Similar action to DJ30, testing near the 50 day MA, recovering off
the Friday low to close. Still hanging around the 2016 trendline as well.
Okay, tested support, has held for 3 sessions after the Tuesday drop, and as
with DJ30, will see if it recovers to continue the rally.
NASDAQ: Something of a 1-2-3 bear flag, moving up to the 20 day EMA and
showing a doji. Still trending higher, still easily over the 50 day MA's,
but not a strong upside pattern. Similar to SP500 and DJ30, NASDAQ looks in
line for a 50 day MA test (5750, another 80 points).
SOX: Held the 20 day EMA on the selling midweek, rebounded to test the high
hit Monday. Chips are still strong but some of the key names are extended
and look a bit exhausted.
SP400: Bearish pattern as SP500 fell hard through the 50 day MA Tuesday,
posted a 1-2-3 recovery through Friday. That formed a bear flag just below
the 50 day MA as SP400 builds an 8 week head and shoulders.
RUTX: Showing the same action as SP400, recovering Wednesday to Friday from
the sharp Tuesday drop, but showing a doji below the 10 day EMA in a bear
flag move.
LEADERSHIP
Semiconductors: MU reported great results and gapped higher along with some
other chips, e.g. CY, LRCX. Some look problematic, e.g. SWKS, XLNX, AVGO.
We will see if some of those leaders to this point roll over.
Biotechs/Healthcare: Again a solid group almost across the board with an
emphasis on the lower priced stocks: IDRA, IMMU, IMGN, INVA, XOMA.
China: Struggled on the week with some stocks rebounding (BABA, VIPS,
CTRP), others looking for help (ATHM, BIDU). BITA looks good to move
higher.
Software: Still holding in with CALD posting a good move. Kind of sketchy
outside that with RHT bouncing back up but in a weaker recovery from the
break downside. EBIX fell down to the 50 day EMA. FFIV still hanging on at
the 20 day as it fights to maintain its trend.
Financial: Bear flags around the horn: C, BAC, JPM, KEY.
Oil: Looks as if some oil stocks are going to attempt a bounce, e.g. CRK,
WFT, HAL.
Miscellaneous: PENN surged higher yet again. TSLA has a very nice pattern
going. DIS is still barely trending higher.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -59.86 points (-0.29%) to close at 20596.72
Nasdaq
Stats: +11.04 points (+0.19%) to close at 5828.74
Volume: 1.818B (+4.84%)
Up Volume: 1.16B (+234.87M)
Down Volume: 653.04M (-137.44M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.29 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.76 to 1
New Highs: 74 (+10)
New Lows: 44 (-4)
S&P
Stats: -1.98 points (-0.08%) to close at 2343.98
NYSE Volume: 787.8M (-2.17%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.08 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.88 to 1
New Highs: 75 (+7)
New Lows: 33 (0)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 12.96; -0.16
VXN: 12.66; -1.04
VXO: 13.34; +1.12
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.21; +0.08. 4 of 5 sessions back over 1.0 on the
close, indicating a lot of protection purchases as well as some out and out
playing the downside. Racking up quite a few sessions, and if gets near 10
that would be getting toward an extreme level.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls recovered some lost ground after plummeting off the
cycle high that saw several weeks of bullishness over 60%.
Bulls: 56.7 versus 53.4
Bears: 17.3 versus 17.5
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 56.7 versus 53.4
53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8
versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8
versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9
versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2
versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1%
versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus
35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 17.3 versus 17.5
13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus
17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0
versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus
24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7%
versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7%
versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus
35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.40% versus 2.41%
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.41%
versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus 2.529% versus
2.502% versus 2.602 versus 2.617% versus 2.58% versus 2.60% versus 2.55%
versus 2.51% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus 2.46% versus 2.260% versus
2.367% versus 2.31% versus 2.38% versus 2.42% versus 2.43% versus 2.42%
versus 2.45% versus 2.50% versus 2.473% versus 2.43% versus 2.41% versus
2.398% versus 2.340% versus 2.393% versus 2.41% versus 2.48% versus 2.474%
versus 2.477% versus 2.44% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus 2.512% versus
2.52% versus 2.467% versus 2.40% versus 2.47% versus 2.468% versus 2.422%
versus 2.372%
EUR/USD: 1.07984 versus 1.07670. Holding the move higher, attempting to
set up for a run at the 200 day SMA.
Historical: 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214 versus 1.05327 versus 1.05710 versus 1.05877 versus
1.05616 versus 1.05830 versus 1.0557 versus 1.05474 versus 1.06108 versus
1.06665 versus 1.06148 versus 1.05762 versus 1.06023 versus 1.06411 versus
1.06557 versus 1.06825 versus 1.06814 versus 1.07219 versus 1.07880 versus
1.07605 versus 1.07892 versus 1.0791 versus 1.07294 versus 1.06957 versus
1.06843 versus 1.0683 versus 1.0756 versus 1.07274 versus 1.0761 versus
1.07027 versus 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450 versus
1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346 versus
105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155 versus
1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus
1.0392
USD/JPY: 111.335 versus 111.242. Attempting to hold at 110.60 on the lows.
Historical: 111.242 versus 111.295 versus 111.502 versus 112.289 versus
112.707 versus 113.349 versus 113.447 versus 114.726 versus 114.833 versus
114.807 versus 115.259 versus 114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus
114.042 versus 114.169 versus 113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus
112.169 versus 112.745 versus 113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus
113.356 versus 113.880 versus 114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus
113.265 versus 113.401 versus 112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815 versus
112.567 versus 112.903 versus 112.68 versus 112.50 versus 114.493 versus
115.094 versus 114.469 versus 113.362 versus 113.850 versus 112.736 versus
114.39 versus 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983
Oil: 47.97, 0.27. Still below the 200 day SMA but perhaps it too attempts
to put in a near term double bottom.
Gold: 1248.50, +1.30. Rallied to near the 200 day SMA through Wednesday,
working laterally to end the week. Okay, back at resistance; what will it do
this time?
MONDAY
Again, how resilient will the market be in the face of a healthcare failure
thus far and the prospects of tax reform package getting the same kind of
treatment? Then again, perhaps some major arm-twisting and side deals can
shock the market with a vote Monday. Maybe; those republicans voting
against Ryan's bill are pretty adamant and steadfast in their reasons for
opposition.
Thus, we are not counting on any kind of deal though that does not mean it
cannot happen. And of course, it is all speculation as to which way the
political river flows. The key is being ready with different plays, upside
and downside, to take advantage of the direction. On top of all of that,
there are great trends in place in some areas, and we have some great
positions still working in very good trends, not just hanging on but showing
very good action.
With that we let the politics work itself out and play the moves that
generate off that. I know that does not sound so wise and sage, but I know
enough not to pretend to know what that outcome will be. I just want to be
ready and take what the market is going to give me.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5828.74
Resistance:
5912
5928 is the March all-time high.
Support:
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 50 day SMA at 5753
The 50 day EMA at 5750
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 2016 trendline at 5652
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
The 200 day SMA at 5343
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 2343.98
Resistance:
The 2016 trendline at 2354
2390 is the March interim recovery high
2401 is the all-time high
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 2332
The 50 day SMA at 2331
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
The 200 day SMA at 2208
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
Dow: Closed at 20,596.72
Resistance:
21,100 is the March interim recovery high
21,169 is the all-time high
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 20,472
The 50 day SMA at 20,449
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 19,047
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
March 21 - Tuesday
Current Account Bala, Q4 (8:30): -$112.4B actual versus -$128.2B
expected, -$116.0B prior (revised from -$113.0B)
March 22 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 03/18 (7:00)
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/18 (7:00): -2.7% actual versus 3.1% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, January (9:00): 0.0% actual versus 0.4% prior
Existing Home Sales, February (10:00): 5.48M actual versus 5.54M expected,
5.69M prior (no revisions)
Crude Inventories, 03/18 (10:30): +5.0M actual versus -0.2M prior
March 23 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/18 (8:30): 258K actual versus 239K expected, 243K prior
(revised from 241K)
Continuing Claims, 03/11 (8:30): 2000K actual versus 2039K prior (revised
from 2030K)
New Home Sales, February (10:00): 592K actual versus 560K expected, 558K
prior (revised from 555K)
Natural Gas Inventor, 03/18 (10:30): -150 bcf actual versus -53 bcf prior
March 24 - Friday
Durable Orders, February (8:30): 1.7% actual versus 1.3% expected, 2.3%
prior (revised from 1.8%)
Durable Goods -ex tr, February (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.7% expected,
0.2% prior (revised from -0.2%)
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
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Sunday, March 26, 2017
Sunday, March 19, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 3-18-17
* * * *
3/18/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: BIDU; MXWL
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: CRMD
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Big expiration volume, quiet action in the indices.
- RUTX leads the upside rebound again, trying to make up some lost ground.
- Trump administration viewed by many as in turmoil, not able to push its
agenda. With the cost scoring of the ACA replacement and the G-20 outcome,
the administration is actually maneuvering to get its agenda passed.
- Plenty of worry about a market top though index uptrends remain and market
keeps finding leaders.
Well, Friday was another day of no follow through. A Wednesday afternoon
break higher after the FOMC raised rates 25BP but was seen as more dovish
sent bonds higher, stocks higher. Of course, that is exactly what the FOMC
did not want to happen. I mean it raised rates again, the third time in 16
months, twice in the past 3 months. It is 'clearly' serious dag nab it.
Yet the market rallies because the Fed was not really that hawkish. No
doubt the FOMC members are confused by the Joe Six Pack market players.
Comes from spending too much time in ivory towers away from the real world.
SP500 -3.13, -0.13%
NASDAQ 0.24, 0.01%
DJ30 -19.93, -0.10%
SP400 0.17%
RUTX 0.40%
SOX 0.18%
VOLUME: NYSE +190%, NASDAQ +70%. Quite an expiration Friday, but of course
that means you cannot put too much emphasis on the trade levels.
A/D: NYSE 1.5:1, NASDAQ 1.4:1. Another ho-hum breadth session. The market
has leaders but Friday many took a breather.
Of course, the rally was for just one day. Thursday and Friday stocks were
overall lethargic, holding the move but unable to provide follow through.
Those two words, follow through, were the most uttered on the end of week
market wraps. No follow through, Fed hiking, economic data not that
impressive as it does, market too high, stocks too extended, internals too
weak, Trump agenda supposedly stymied. Surely hell on earth for financial
markets has arrived.
Hey it's hard to argue against the points; they are all more or less true,
though after this weekend it appears some are less true, i.e. that the Trump
agenda is stymied. If there was ever a time he was going to be shown who
was in charge it was the G20, the gathering of the major economic leadership
countries to affirm allegiance to free trade, climate change, and other
globalist focal points.
Instead, after the US wanted changes and Germany and Canada were ready to
acquiesce, offering amendments to appease the US, amendments that were
rejected by the EU and China, the meeting adjourned with the G-20 dropping
its anti-protectionist, free trade, and financing anti-climate change
pledges. As one G-20 delegate put it tonight, 'Unless there is a last
minute miracle, there is no agreement on trade. This is not a good outcome
to the meeting."
This could roil the FX markets on Sunday night, but this caps a quietly good
week for the Trump administration. The CBO scored the GOP ACA replacement
as reducing federal spending $1.2T and taxes by $900B. That leaves $300B in
deficit reduction and a lot of room to cut deals to get everyone satisfied
and on board for pushing the bill through reconciliation. With the budget
about $1T lower thanks to the 'repeal and replace' of the ACA, the tax
reform plan can be passed under reconciliation as well. Much easier to get
51 senators than 60, and there is plenty of money to again cut deals to get
the job done.
So, while we all read and hear about how the Trump administration is out of
control and losing grip on every situation, the path is there, and those in
Congress know that is the case. So, it is going to be a process of
jockeying for a position at the trough as deals will be made. Now you
understand what all of this means. Now I need to go and hose off.
THE MARKET
A new high put in not quite 3 weeks back followed by a pullback to near
support. Last Wednesday a break higher post-FOMC rate hike. Orderly
pullback, new break upside, then fizzled Thursday and Friday. For some
indices. For some stocks. RUTX is still rebounding even as the other
indices stalled to end the week. Many leader stocks also paused Friday, but
many posted solid upside moves as well. Okay, so it was not a total bust as
it would appear many pundits fear the close to the week shows.
Yes, the uptrends remain in place, but there is a lot of market top guessing
right now as many feel the market is topping. I agree that it is working on
one, has been as for several weeks the internals and sentiment turned weaker
and overdone, respectively. But despite that belief, the stock indices
continue rising and more importantly, good, solid leadership continues to
lead. Perhaps the slow action to end the week marks a market peak, but
there is nothing overt that shows the trends are done.
CHARTS
SOX: Put in a higher high Wednesday, the only index to do so on the week.
Despite the stall to end the week, there was no give back of the new high.
Chips remain solid though many are extended after good rungs, but many
others have set up great patterns to move higher and help keep the sector as
a leader.
RUTX: Best mover Friday with a 0.40% gain. That pushes RUTX back over the
December to February trading range. Positive step but will there be . .
follow through?
NASDAQ: Came close to a higher high Wednesday but no cigar, sliding
laterally through Friday. A double top some are calling it. Premature even
if MACD is a bit lower as it tests the prior peak.
SP400: Solid break higher Wednesday off the short double bottom test of the
50 day MA, just could not keep the move going to end the week. SP400 still
looks promising after testing and holding the 50 day MA, producing a good
bounce.
SP500: SP500 put in a double test of the 20 day EMA and broke higher
Wednesday as well. Closed the week at the 10 day EMA, still trending
higher, still in great position to move. Will there be a continued upside
break after the quick test -- still looks solid but as of yet no catalyst to
drive the move.
DJ30: Same action as SP500, testing the 20 day EMA with a short double
bottom, bouncing Wednesday, then sliding laterally to end the week. No new
high, but has tested the SOTU high from 3 weeks back and is in position to
continue higher. Question is, will it.
LEADERSHIP
A pause in the market for a second session but there were still stocks
rising as many recent leaders took a day off.
Semiconductors: An early and continuing market leader saw some stocks
surge, others hold their moves. MXWL surged almost 10%. AAOI, RTEC, PLAB,
SLAB were up and look good. Others are holding the moves, e.g. SWKS, MU.
Others have come a long way and look ready to test, e.g. AVGO, possibly
QRVO.
Biotech/Drugs: Some huge moves up, some of those moves testing, but overall
a lot of good patterns. IDRA showed excellent upside action as did INFI.
IMMU remains solid. INVA, CNAT look very good to go. Others are testing
good moves, e.g. CORT, PLX.
Materials: Enjoyed a good end of the week, e.g. CX, LPX.
Software: Remains strong. VMW up nicely on the week. CALD surged
Thursday, held the move Friday. FFIV still moving higher and to a new high.
BLKB still rising. EBIX looks good to make a new move higher.
China: A mixed sector with some strong moves, e.g. VIPS, YY, BIDU. Others
look very good, e.g. CTRP, SOHU, YNDX.
Financial: Struggled post-FOMC as apparently the Fed was not hawkish enough
on rates. C broke the 20 day EMA Friday, BAC and JPM holding the line for
now.
Struggling: Oil, trucking, trains, metals, construction.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -19.93 points (-0.1%) to close at 20914.62
Nasdaq
Stats: +0.24 points (0%) to close at 5901
Volume: 2.967B (+69.85%)
Up Volume: 1.36B (+280M)
Down Volume: 1.73B (+1.092B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.43 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
New Highs: 177 (-17)
New Lows: 34 (-11)
S&P
Stats: -3.13 points (-0.13%) to close at 2378.25
NYSE Volume: 2.3B (+188.65%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.26 to 1
New Highs: 147 (-25)
New Lows: 17 (+1)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.28; +0.07
VXN: 10.57; -0.39
VXO: 9.15; -0.14
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; +0.05
Bulls and Bears: Impressive back to back drops in bulls all the way to
53.4, almost 10 points in just two weeks. Market pulls back in a normal
test and sentiment plunges. Wall of worry as USB says? Hmmm . . .
Bulls: 53.4 versus 57.7
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 53.4 versus 57.7
57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2
versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6
versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6
versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3
versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus
41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4%
versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.3
17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5
versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2
versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9%
versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0%
versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8%
versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.50% versus 2.529%. After selling to start March, bonds
recovered Wednesday to Friday AFTER the FOMC hiked rates. Hiking into an
economic slowdown or just not as hawkish as many expected? We will see.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.529%
versus 2.502% versus 2.602 versus 2.617% versus 2.58% versus 2.60% versus
2.55% versus 2.51% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus 2.46% versus 2.260%
versus 2.367% versus 2.31% versus 2.38% versus 2.42% versus 2.43% versus
2.42% versus 2.45% versus 2.50% versus 2.473% versus 2.43% versus 2.41%
versus 2.398% versus 2.340% versus 2.393% versus 2.41% versus 2.48% versus
2.474% versus 2.477% versus 2.44% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus 2.512%
versus 2.52% versus 2.467% versus 2.40% versus 2.47% versus 2.468% versus
2.422% versus 2.372%
EUR/USD: 1.07395 versus 1.07710. Euro rallied into Thursday, sold back
Friday. Will see how currencies react Sunday after the G-20 meeting broke
up.
Historical: 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214 versus 1.05327 versus 1.05710 versus 1.05877 versus
1.05616 versus 1.05830 versus 1.0557 versus 1.05474 versus 1.06108 versus
1.06665 versus 1.06148 versus 1.05762 versus 1.06023 versus 1.06411 versus
1.06557 versus 1.06825 versus 1.06814 versus 1.07219 versus 1.07880 versus
1.07605 versus 1.07892 versus 1.0791 versus 1.07294 versus 1.06957 versus
1.06843 versus 1.0683 versus 1.0756 versus 1.07274 versus 1.0761 versus
1.07027 versus 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450 versus
1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346 versus
105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155 versus
1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus
1.0392
USD/JPY: 112.707 versus 113.349. Dollar was rising versus the yen, then
last week it broke back below the 50 day MA's.
Historical: 113.349 versus 113.447 versus 114.726 versus 114.833 versus
114.807 versus 115.259 versus 114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus
114.042 versus 114.169 versus 113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus
112.169 versus 112.745 versus 113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus
113.356 versus 113.880 versus 114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus
113.265 versus 113.401 versus 112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815 versus
112.567 versus 112.903 versus 112.68 versus 112.50 versus 114.493 versus
115.094 versus 114.469 versus 113.362 versus 113.850 versus 112.736 versus
114.39 versus 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983
Oil: 49.31, +0.07. Bounced back after the sharp selloff, moving over the
200 day SMA to test the falling 10 day EMA. Bear flag setup.
Gold: 1230.20, +3.10. 3-day bounce from the selling that started in March.
Still recovering off the December low, and now we see if it can move back up
to the 200 da where it failed to end February.
MONDAY
Now the market has walked through the Jobs Report the prior Friday, the FOMC
rate decision, and the Dutch elections. This weekend the G-20 meeting
concludes with the US asserting more nationalistic positions. What will the
currencies do now? Could be interesting as the Chinese say.
The market continues dealing with one major story after the next, many with
the capability of moving the market, none really doing so. The FOMC rate
hike started to help, but -- as everyone points out, no follow through.
Even with no follow through the index patterns are quite solid and in
position to continue upside. Leadership keeps finding leaders to step up.
This weekend we are looking at plays from three leading groups:
biotechs/drugs, semiconductors, software. The patterns remain great, and
thus far stocks are not just drawing pretty pictures but are making
breakouts from those patterns. The breakouts are surging then testing just
as they should, no breakouts met with immediate selling. The sellers are
still standing back, thus far unwilling to step in front of the market.
It is interesting the viewpoints. The market faces one report after
another, a Fed decision, geopolitical issues, fiscal economic attempts. It
is maligned for not using these as a catalyst to surge.
Looked at from another viewpoint, however, the market is faced with worries
the Trump deregulation and tax policies are getting pushed back but is not
selling off. Indeed, it produces new leaders to come to the fore.
Leadership has narrowed as oil dropped out, metals are down, and transports
are struggling along with financial stocks.
For now the leadership is enough to keep the market in its trends. Thus for
now we are still playing the really good upside positions that keep setting
up.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5901.00
Resistance:
5912 is the March all-time high.
Support:
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 50 day EMA at 5731
The 50 day SMA at 5723
The 2016 trendline at 5652
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 200 day SMA at 5321
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 2378.25
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2340
The 50 day EMA at 2328
The 50 day SMA at 2323
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
The 200 day SMA at 2202
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
Dow: Closed at 20,914.62
Resistance:
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 20,424
The 50 day SMA at 20,371
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 18,977
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
March 17 - Friday
Industrial Production, February (9:15): 0.0% actual versus 0.2%
expected, -0.1% prior (revised from -0.3%)
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 75.4% actual versus 75.4% expected,
75.5% prior (revised from 75.3%)
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.6% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.6%
prior (no revisions)
Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary March (10:00): 97.6 actual versus 96.8
expected, 96.3 prior (no revisions)
March 21 - Tuesday
Current Account Bala, Q4 (8:30): -$128.2B expected, -$113.0B prior
March 22 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 03/18 (7:00)
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/18 (7:00): 3.1% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, January (9:00): 0.4% prior
Existing Home Sales, February (10:00): 5.54M expected, 5.69M prior
Crude Inventories, 03/18 (10:30): -0.2M prior
March 23 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/18 (8:30): 239K expected, 241K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/11 (8:30): 2030K prior
New Home Sales, February (10:00): 560K expected, 555K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 03/18 (10:30): -53 bcf prior
March 24 - Friday
Durable Orders, February (8:30): 1.3% expected, 1.8% prior
Durable Goods -ex tr, February (8:30): 0.7% expected, -0.2% prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Big expiration volume, quiet action in the indices.
- RUTX leads the upside rebound again, trying to make up some lost ground.
- Trump administration viewed by many as in turmoil, not able to push its
agenda. With the cost scoring of the ACA replacement and the G-20 outcome,
the administration is actually maneuvering to get its agenda passed.
- Plenty of worry about a market top though index uptrends remain and market
keeps finding leaders.
Well, Friday was another day of no follow through. A Wednesday afternoon
break higher after the FOMC raised rates 25BP but was seen as more dovish
sent bonds higher, stocks higher. Of course, that is exactly what the FOMC
did not want to happen. I mean it raised rates again, the third time in 16
months, twice in the past 3 months. It is 'clearly' serious dag nab it.
Yet the market rallies because the Fed was not really that hawkish. No
doubt the FOMC members are confused by the Joe Six Pack market players.
Comes from spending too much time in ivory towers away from the real world.
SP500 -3.13, -0.13%
NASDAQ 0.24, 0.01%
DJ30 -19.93, -0.10%
SP400 0.17%
RUTX 0.40%
SOX 0.18%
VOLUME: NYSE +190%, NASDAQ +70%. Quite an expiration Friday, but of course
that means you cannot put too much emphasis on the trade levels.
A/D: NYSE 1.5:1, NASDAQ 1.4:1. Another ho-hum breadth session. The market
has leaders but Friday many took a breather.
Of course, the rally was for just one day. Thursday and Friday stocks were
overall lethargic, holding the move but unable to provide follow through.
Those two words, follow through, were the most uttered on the end of week
market wraps. No follow through, Fed hiking, economic data not that
impressive as it does, market too high, stocks too extended, internals too
weak, Trump agenda supposedly stymied. Surely hell on earth for financial
markets has arrived.
Hey it's hard to argue against the points; they are all more or less true,
though after this weekend it appears some are less true, i.e. that the Trump
agenda is stymied. If there was ever a time he was going to be shown who
was in charge it was the G20, the gathering of the major economic leadership
countries to affirm allegiance to free trade, climate change, and other
globalist focal points.
Instead, after the US wanted changes and Germany and Canada were ready to
acquiesce, offering amendments to appease the US, amendments that were
rejected by the EU and China, the meeting adjourned with the G-20 dropping
its anti-protectionist, free trade, and financing anti-climate change
pledges. As one G-20 delegate put it tonight, 'Unless there is a last
minute miracle, there is no agreement on trade. This is not a good outcome
to the meeting."
This could roil the FX markets on Sunday night, but this caps a quietly good
week for the Trump administration. The CBO scored the GOP ACA replacement
as reducing federal spending $1.2T and taxes by $900B. That leaves $300B in
deficit reduction and a lot of room to cut deals to get everyone satisfied
and on board for pushing the bill through reconciliation. With the budget
about $1T lower thanks to the 'repeal and replace' of the ACA, the tax
reform plan can be passed under reconciliation as well. Much easier to get
51 senators than 60, and there is plenty of money to again cut deals to get
the job done.
So, while we all read and hear about how the Trump administration is out of
control and losing grip on every situation, the path is there, and those in
Congress know that is the case. So, it is going to be a process of
jockeying for a position at the trough as deals will be made. Now you
understand what all of this means. Now I need to go and hose off.
THE MARKET
A new high put in not quite 3 weeks back followed by a pullback to near
support. Last Wednesday a break higher post-FOMC rate hike. Orderly
pullback, new break upside, then fizzled Thursday and Friday. For some
indices. For some stocks. RUTX is still rebounding even as the other
indices stalled to end the week. Many leader stocks also paused Friday, but
many posted solid upside moves as well. Okay, so it was not a total bust as
it would appear many pundits fear the close to the week shows.
Yes, the uptrends remain in place, but there is a lot of market top guessing
right now as many feel the market is topping. I agree that it is working on
one, has been as for several weeks the internals and sentiment turned weaker
and overdone, respectively. But despite that belief, the stock indices
continue rising and more importantly, good, solid leadership continues to
lead. Perhaps the slow action to end the week marks a market peak, but
there is nothing overt that shows the trends are done.
CHARTS
SOX: Put in a higher high Wednesday, the only index to do so on the week.
Despite the stall to end the week, there was no give back of the new high.
Chips remain solid though many are extended after good rungs, but many
others have set up great patterns to move higher and help keep the sector as
a leader.
RUTX: Best mover Friday with a 0.40% gain. That pushes RUTX back over the
December to February trading range. Positive step but will there be . .
follow through?
NASDAQ: Came close to a higher high Wednesday but no cigar, sliding
laterally through Friday. A double top some are calling it. Premature even
if MACD is a bit lower as it tests the prior peak.
SP400: Solid break higher Wednesday off the short double bottom test of the
50 day MA, just could not keep the move going to end the week. SP400 still
looks promising after testing and holding the 50 day MA, producing a good
bounce.
SP500: SP500 put in a double test of the 20 day EMA and broke higher
Wednesday as well. Closed the week at the 10 day EMA, still trending
higher, still in great position to move. Will there be a continued upside
break after the quick test -- still looks solid but as of yet no catalyst to
drive the move.
DJ30: Same action as SP500, testing the 20 day EMA with a short double
bottom, bouncing Wednesday, then sliding laterally to end the week. No new
high, but has tested the SOTU high from 3 weeks back and is in position to
continue higher. Question is, will it.
LEADERSHIP
A pause in the market for a second session but there were still stocks
rising as many recent leaders took a day off.
Semiconductors: An early and continuing market leader saw some stocks
surge, others hold their moves. MXWL surged almost 10%. AAOI, RTEC, PLAB,
SLAB were up and look good. Others are holding the moves, e.g. SWKS, MU.
Others have come a long way and look ready to test, e.g. AVGO, possibly
QRVO.
Biotech/Drugs: Some huge moves up, some of those moves testing, but overall
a lot of good patterns. IDRA showed excellent upside action as did INFI.
IMMU remains solid. INVA, CNAT look very good to go. Others are testing
good moves, e.g. CORT, PLX.
Materials: Enjoyed a good end of the week, e.g. CX, LPX.
Software: Remains strong. VMW up nicely on the week. CALD surged
Thursday, held the move Friday. FFIV still moving higher and to a new high.
BLKB still rising. EBIX looks good to make a new move higher.
China: A mixed sector with some strong moves, e.g. VIPS, YY, BIDU. Others
look very good, e.g. CTRP, SOHU, YNDX.
Financial: Struggled post-FOMC as apparently the Fed was not hawkish enough
on rates. C broke the 20 day EMA Friday, BAC and JPM holding the line for
now.
Struggling: Oil, trucking, trains, metals, construction.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -19.93 points (-0.1%) to close at 20914.62
Nasdaq
Stats: +0.24 points (0%) to close at 5901
Volume: 2.967B (+69.85%)
Up Volume: 1.36B (+280M)
Down Volume: 1.73B (+1.092B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.43 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
New Highs: 177 (-17)
New Lows: 34 (-11)
S&P
Stats: -3.13 points (-0.13%) to close at 2378.25
NYSE Volume: 2.3B (+188.65%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.26 to 1
New Highs: 147 (-25)
New Lows: 17 (+1)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.28; +0.07
VXN: 10.57; -0.39
VXO: 9.15; -0.14
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; +0.05
Bulls and Bears: Impressive back to back drops in bulls all the way to
53.4, almost 10 points in just two weeks. Market pulls back in a normal
test and sentiment plunges. Wall of worry as USB says? Hmmm . . .
Bulls: 53.4 versus 57.7
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 53.4 versus 57.7
57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2
versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6
versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6
versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3
versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus
41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4%
versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.3
17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5
versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2
versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9%
versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0%
versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8%
versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.50% versus 2.529%. After selling to start March, bonds
recovered Wednesday to Friday AFTER the FOMC hiked rates. Hiking into an
economic slowdown or just not as hawkish as many expected? We will see.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.529%
versus 2.502% versus 2.602 versus 2.617% versus 2.58% versus 2.60% versus
2.55% versus 2.51% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus 2.46% versus 2.260%
versus 2.367% versus 2.31% versus 2.38% versus 2.42% versus 2.43% versus
2.42% versus 2.45% versus 2.50% versus 2.473% versus 2.43% versus 2.41%
versus 2.398% versus 2.340% versus 2.393% versus 2.41% versus 2.48% versus
2.474% versus 2.477% versus 2.44% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus 2.512%
versus 2.52% versus 2.467% versus 2.40% versus 2.47% versus 2.468% versus
2.422% versus 2.372%
EUR/USD: 1.07395 versus 1.07710. Euro rallied into Thursday, sold back
Friday. Will see how currencies react Sunday after the G-20 meeting broke
up.
Historical: 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214 versus 1.05327 versus 1.05710 versus 1.05877 versus
1.05616 versus 1.05830 versus 1.0557 versus 1.05474 versus 1.06108 versus
1.06665 versus 1.06148 versus 1.05762 versus 1.06023 versus 1.06411 versus
1.06557 versus 1.06825 versus 1.06814 versus 1.07219 versus 1.07880 versus
1.07605 versus 1.07892 versus 1.0791 versus 1.07294 versus 1.06957 versus
1.06843 versus 1.0683 versus 1.0756 versus 1.07274 versus 1.0761 versus
1.07027 versus 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450 versus
1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346 versus
105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155 versus
1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus
1.0392
USD/JPY: 112.707 versus 113.349. Dollar was rising versus the yen, then
last week it broke back below the 50 day MA's.
Historical: 113.349 versus 113.447 versus 114.726 versus 114.833 versus
114.807 versus 115.259 versus 114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus
114.042 versus 114.169 versus 113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus
112.169 versus 112.745 versus 113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus
113.356 versus 113.880 versus 114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus
113.265 versus 113.401 versus 112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815 versus
112.567 versus 112.903 versus 112.68 versus 112.50 versus 114.493 versus
115.094 versus 114.469 versus 113.362 versus 113.850 versus 112.736 versus
114.39 versus 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983
Oil: 49.31, +0.07. Bounced back after the sharp selloff, moving over the
200 day SMA to test the falling 10 day EMA. Bear flag setup.
Gold: 1230.20, +3.10. 3-day bounce from the selling that started in March.
Still recovering off the December low, and now we see if it can move back up
to the 200 da where it failed to end February.
MONDAY
Now the market has walked through the Jobs Report the prior Friday, the FOMC
rate decision, and the Dutch elections. This weekend the G-20 meeting
concludes with the US asserting more nationalistic positions. What will the
currencies do now? Could be interesting as the Chinese say.
The market continues dealing with one major story after the next, many with
the capability of moving the market, none really doing so. The FOMC rate
hike started to help, but -- as everyone points out, no follow through.
Even with no follow through the index patterns are quite solid and in
position to continue upside. Leadership keeps finding leaders to step up.
This weekend we are looking at plays from three leading groups:
biotechs/drugs, semiconductors, software. The patterns remain great, and
thus far stocks are not just drawing pretty pictures but are making
breakouts from those patterns. The breakouts are surging then testing just
as they should, no breakouts met with immediate selling. The sellers are
still standing back, thus far unwilling to step in front of the market.
It is interesting the viewpoints. The market faces one report after
another, a Fed decision, geopolitical issues, fiscal economic attempts. It
is maligned for not using these as a catalyst to surge.
Looked at from another viewpoint, however, the market is faced with worries
the Trump deregulation and tax policies are getting pushed back but is not
selling off. Indeed, it produces new leaders to come to the fore.
Leadership has narrowed as oil dropped out, metals are down, and transports
are struggling along with financial stocks.
For now the leadership is enough to keep the market in its trends. Thus for
now we are still playing the really good upside positions that keep setting
up.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5901.00
Resistance:
5912 is the March all-time high.
Support:
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 50 day EMA at 5731
The 50 day SMA at 5723
The 2016 trendline at 5652
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 200 day SMA at 5321
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 2378.25
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2340
The 50 day EMA at 2328
The 50 day SMA at 2323
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
The 200 day SMA at 2202
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
Dow: Closed at 20,914.62
Resistance:
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 20,424
The 50 day SMA at 20,371
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 18,977
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
March 17 - Friday
Industrial Production, February (9:15): 0.0% actual versus 0.2%
expected, -0.1% prior (revised from -0.3%)
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 75.4% actual versus 75.4% expected,
75.5% prior (revised from 75.3%)
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.6% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.6%
prior (no revisions)
Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary March (10:00): 97.6 actual versus 96.8
expected, 96.3 prior (no revisions)
March 21 - Tuesday
Current Account Bala, Q4 (8:30): -$128.2B expected, -$113.0B prior
March 22 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 03/18 (7:00)
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/18 (7:00): 3.1% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, January (9:00): 0.4% prior
Existing Home Sales, February (10:00): 5.54M expected, 5.69M prior
Crude Inventories, 03/18 (10:30): -0.2M prior
March 23 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/18 (8:30): 239K expected, 241K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/11 (8:30): 2030K prior
New Home Sales, February (10:00): 560K expected, 555K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 03/18 (10:30): -53 bcf prior
March 24 - Friday
Durable Orders, February (8:30): 1.3% expected, 1.8% prior
Durable Goods -ex tr, February (8:30): 0.7% expected, -0.2% prior
End part 1 of 3
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Saturday, March 11, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 3-11-17
* * * *
3/11/2017 Investment House Daily
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Jobs Report comes, goes, stocks rise, fade, but SOX breaks to a higher
high.
- Jobs headlines are okay while the underlying numbers are finally better.
- Analysts calling for a pullback from the highs. Is that not just what
happened or do they mean a correction?
- Leaders have a pretty good Friday as they and the uptrends still don't
have any real sellers.
- This week sees the Fed rate decision, Dutch election, and debt ceiling all
hit on Wednesday.
February jobs topped Friday's news. It was an okay report on the headlines,
beating expectations along with an upward revision to January. The
internals were significantly better with participation rising to 63.0% as
those not in the workforce fell another 176K on top of January's 736K,
combining for the biggest ever 2 month drop.
Non-farm payrolls: 235K versus 188K expected versus 239K January (from 227K)
Unemployment: 4.7% versus 4.7% expected versus 4.8% January
Hourly wages: 0.2% versus 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%). +2.8% year/year
Average hourly workweek: Steady at 34.4. Again.
Participation: 63.0%
The mix of jobs improved as well:
Construction 58K, roughly a 10 year high water mark
Manufacturing 28K
Mining 6K, a modest improvement
Private Education 39K
Professional and Business: 37K
Healthcare 27K
Leisure and Hospitality 26K
Retail -26K
Futures were already higher ahead of the report, and when the news hit, they
rallied a bit farther. The news, however, did not have a lot of staying
power. Even before the market opened stocks slid off the pre-market highs,
and when the opening bell sounded prices slid. Three down legs into early
afternoon led to back half recovery, but it was a very anticlimactic session
to a much anticipated report that could have been, but was not, the next
upside catalyst.
SP500 7.73, 0.33%
NASDAQ 22.92, 0.39%
DJ30 44.79, 0.21%
SP400 0.42%
RUTX 0.38%
SOX 1.17%
VOLUME: NYSE -4.5%, NASDAQ +6%. Lower on NYSE as the indices traded more or
less flat, up on NASDAQ as it broke higher, albeit modestly. Not bad
price/volume action.
A/D: NYSE 2:1, NASDAQ 1.4:1. A bit of a recovery in the small and midcaps
helped breadth recover to decent levels.
Thus the market was still in the test mode, more or less; SOX did break to a
higher high, and it is hard to argue with a semiconductor index that wants
to lead higher. Often the rest of the market follows.
Perhaps the market is still contemplating what is to come this week: FOMC
rate decision, Dutch election with a populist anti-EU candidate leading, and
the US debt hitting the ceiling, and all on Wednesday. Will they or won't
they raise it? Republican President, republican Congress. Sure they will.
After the super positive, olive branch extending SOTU address and subsequent
one-day gap and rally, the stock market has tested that move. That entire
move. Lots of infighting subsequent to the address, lots of obstructionism,
yet the Trump administration keeps coming out in decent shape. More
companies announce jobs in the US, even foreign companies. CEO's that talk
with the President come out pumped and excited. Polls show continued
approval of the job being done.
At the same time there is a lot of negativity surrounding a market testing
back from higher highs. I have made it clear; I am not a fan of the move
because of the weak internals and the high bullish sentiment. Yet,
leadership remains despite the dropout of some leader groups (e.g. oil
stocks). Moreover, as soon as the market started to test, bullish advisor
sentiment dropped precipitously -- it would appear advisors are as jumpy as
a 10 year old in a Halloween fright house.
Thus, while we still view this rally as being on its last legs, that is just
opinion. The market punched out some new highs, is putting in a very
orderly test of those highs, and it still has leadership in great position
and indeed making good moves. We bought into some of those moves on Friday
after moving into other positions during the week. Some great moves are in
progress from this new rebound of leaders -- even as the market tests.
SIMO, CTRP, PLX, IMMU, VRSN, BLUE, SWKS, AVGO, SOHU, ATHM -- excellent moves
even as the market tests, not suggesting that buyers are backing away from
the market. Bids are still there, and you have to, as corny as it sounds,
follow the leaders.
MARKET
CHARTS
SOX: The star of the session, SOX put in a rather unheralded break to a new
high, gapping and rallying past the late February high. SOX put in a 3 week
lateral move after a new high in February, and is now at a new high once
more. SOX tends to lead the rest of the market.
NASDAQ: After a four day lateral move over the 20 day EMA, NASDAQ gapped
upside, filled the gap, then rebounded to hold the move. All in all, not bad
with a nice showing of above average volume and some life moving back into
some chips while FANG still showed some upside.
SP500: After a 6 session test of the post-SOTU rally, SP500 completely
filled the gap higher, holding the 20 day EMA. Friday a gap higher to a
doji. Decent but nothing breakthrough, nothing showing a clear return to
the upside. It delivered a bounce where it needed to but did not add any
bling to it.
DJ30: Gapped modestly higher to a doji as well, also coming off a gap fill
and 20 day EMA test. Started higher, but that is about all it did.
SP400: After a 6 session fade to the 50 day MA's, SP400 midcaps gapped
higher Friday but could only manage a doji. As with SP500, it delivered a
bounce where it needed to but not anything more.
RUTX: The small caps fell into the lower third of the December to February
range as of Thursday, posted a modest bounce with a doji. Nothing
definitive, just held after a week of downside.
LEADERSHIP
As noted, there is a swath of leadership from many sectors even as some have
broken lower such as oil stocks. Even some of those, however, after long
selloffs, are going to try and bounce.
Biotech: Continues to produce some impressive moves. CORT is surging for
us. IMMU is in a powerful move. PLX exploded higher. CELG was up on the
week then tried to give it up Friday. BLUE put in solid moves up off the 20
day EMA test. SRPT looks ready to move. Some got away with upside gaps,
e.g. TTPH.
China: Some great moves again Friday, e.g. CTRP, ATHM, SOHU. YY looks
good. Still waiting for BIDU, BABA, YNDX to start upside again.
Chips: Definitely coming back to life as evidenced Friday. SIMO put in a
great week for us as we caught it on the breakout. SWKS put in a new high.
SLAB regained its feet after that early March gap lower, starting up off the
50 day MA on strong volume. AVGO surged Friday.
Financial: Not a spectacular week, but they held the line. BAC working in
a flat lateral move over the 10 day EMA. C gapped higher Wednesday and
edged higher to the early January highs. JPM put in a nice test of the 20
day EMA, looks ready to move. GS looks a bit wobbly as of Friday, trying to
hold the 20 day EMA.
Oil: Bouncing some after big drops but have not reversed the move yet. CVX
bounced but has a lot of resistance. HAL bounced modestly. SPN bombed
lower. SWN will be ready to bounce after putting in a small double bottom.
Industrial machinery: Struggling. TEX broke lower. CAT remains in
trouble. CMI is holding over the 20 day EMA.
Metals: After some selling, some possibilities. AKS is trying to hold the
late January low, showing higher MACD on this second low. It is somewhat by
itself, however, as STLD, SCHN, RS have work to do. AA is trying to break
below the 50 day EMA and the late February low.
Miscellaneous: GRMN breaking higher after testing its earnings gap. VRSN
broke out on the week.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +44.79 points (+0.21%) to close at 20902.98
Nasdaq
Stats: +22.92 points (+0.39%) to close at 5861.73
Volume: 1.977B (+5.81%)
Up Volume: 1.23B (+261.52M)
Down Volume: 728.62M (-148.01M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.39 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.4 to 1
New Highs: 99 (+22)
New Lows: 40 (-26)
S&P
Stats: +7.73 points (+0.33%) to close at 2372.6
NYSE Volume: 838.7M (-4.51%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.03 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.32 to 1
New Highs: 71 (+30)
New Lows: 70 (-39)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.66; -0.64
VXN: 11.9; -0.57
VXO: 10.5; -0.67
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; -0.24
Bulls and Bears: Bulls fell back below 60 in a big drop. Bears back over
17. A bit of a bluster? Certainly in line with other sentiment we are
hearing.
Bulls: 57.7 versus 63.1
Bears: 17.3 versus 16.5
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 57.7 versus 63.1
63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6
versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8
versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1
versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0
versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9%
versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus
47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus
39.2
Bears: 17.3 versus 16.5
16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3
versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6
versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6
versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2%
versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7%
versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8%
versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.58% versus 2.60%. Trying to put in a second bottom at
the December low. Look oversold from this pattern. Now what does that
suggest? The Fed NOT hiking rates? Would it really do that? Perhaps a
bounce into the FOMC announcement Wednesday.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.60%
versus 2.55% versus 2.51% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus 2.46% versus
2.260% versus 2.367% versus 2.31% versus 2.38% versus 2.42% versus 2.43%
versus 2.42% versus 2.45% versus 2.50% versus 2.473% versus 2.43% versus
2.41% versus 2.398% versus 2.340% versus 2.393% versus 2.41% versus 2.48%
versus 2.474% versus 2.477% versus 2.44% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus
2.512% versus 2.52% versus 2.467% versus 2.40% versus 2.47% versus 2.468%
versus 2.422% versus 2.372%
EUR/USD: 1.06746 versus 1.05948, Euro surging back upside Thursday and
Friday. Bouncing up off the higher low.
Historical: 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214 versus 1.05327 versus 1.05710 versus 1.05877 versus
1.05616 versus 1.05830 versus 1.0557 versus 1.05474 versus 1.06108 versus
1.06665 versus 1.06148 versus 1.05762 versus 1.06023 versus 1.06411 versus
1.06557 versus 1.06825 versus 1.06814 versus 1.07219 versus 1.07880 versus
1.07605 versus 1.07892 versus 1.0791 versus 1.07294 versus 1.06957 versus
1.06843 versus 1.0683 versus 1.0756 versus 1.07274 versus 1.0761 versus
1.07027 versus 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450 versus
1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346 versus
105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155 versus
1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus
1.0392
USD/JPY: 114.807 versus 115.259. After a break higher Wednesday and
Thursday out of the handle, the dollar backed off.
Historical: 115.259 versus 114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus
114.042 versus 114.169 versus 113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus
112.169 versus 112.745 versus 113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus
113.356 versus 113.880 versus 114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus
113.265 versus 113.401 versus 112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815 versus
112.567 versus 112.903 versus 112.68 versus 112.50 versus 114.493 versus
115.094 versus 114.469 versus 113.362 versus 113.850 versus 112.736 versus
114.39 versus 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983
Oil: 48.49, -0.79. Bombed lower Wednesday to Friday, closing just below
the 200 day SMA. This is where oil held in November, i.e. at the 200 day
SMA.
Gold: 1201.40, -1.80. Nine sessions to the downside, showing a doji just
below the 50 day SMA. Oversold near term.
MONDAY
Some important milestones this coming week converging Wednesday with the
FOMC rate hike (100% according to the Fed Funds Futures), the Dutch
election, and the US reaching the debt ceiling limit. Of course the Jobs
Report supposedly sealed the hike and that could have been a catalyst, but
it was not, at least not for the entire market; there were some good moves.
Friday I heard more than one market analyst talking about a pullback from
the highs being likely before the market rallied again. I looked at the
charts again just to make sure what I saw over the past 7 sessions. Yep,
still a nice orderly pullback off of the highs. Still no signs of sellers.
Now once again the indices have pulled right back off a higher high. Did it
in late January with a gap higher out of a 6 week lateral consolidation, but
they also immediately held the line and rallied sharply in February. New
high 8 sessions back on the post-SOTU rally, now a steady fade to fill the
gap and hold near support. Perhaps a pullback is coming, but with the index
action and the leadership action, once again there appears to be no sellers
of any number willing to take on the uptrend.
That can all change with the right news (wrong news for the bulls), but what
will that news be? The Dutch nationalists winning and wanting out of the EU
as did the UK? The market seemed to get used to the UK leaving and frankly
I don't think it would be surprised if the Dutch want out as well.
A Fed rate hike? That is supposed to be good news, right? Strong economy
if the Fed hikes, right? After 2 hikes in 15 months can the economy stand
another quarter point? If it cannot, and if the market cannot, then perhaps
the Fed grossly 'misoverestimated' the economy's strength. If that is the
case, well then stocks will ultimately react negatively to a hike.
The debt ceiling might be the silent rally killer. Treasury's Mnuchin is
asking to raise the debt limit to keep spending. The ironic news item is
the Deficit is down $90B since January.
So, reason to keep an eye out for what the politics are (and the Fed is
political by the way) as we watch how the indices bounce and behave AND how
leadership works. As of the end of the week it was working pretty well. Of
course we still took advantage of APC selling off to make some downside
money.
As for plays this week, we picked up some nice upside when things were not
so great the past week. Heck they are not all that great now according to
many pundits with this 'market top'. I guess we will just have to look at
those great upside setups and pass them up because the market might top off
of this pullback. Uh, hell no. As noted last week, the trend, despite all
misgivings, is still holding, and our worries or the worries of others don't
really change that trend and certainly have not changed the leaders setting
up and breaking upside. Until the leaders are breaking down and the trends
break, you look for stocks setting up for the upside and play them as them
make their moves.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5861.73
Resistance:
5912 is the March all-time high.
Support:
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 50 day EMA at 5697
The 50 day SMA at 5677
The 2016 trendline at 5630
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 200 day SMA at 5297
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 2372.60
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2329
2301 is the late January 2017 high
The 50 day EMA at 2313
The 50 day SMA at 2310
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
The 200 day SMA at 2195
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
Dow: Closed at 20,902.98
Resistance:
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 20,317
The 50 day SMA at 20,265
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
The 200 day SMA at 18,900
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
March 10 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, February (8:30): 235K actual versus 188K expected, 238K
prior (revised from 227K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, February (8:30): 227K actual versus 185K expected,
221K prior (revised from 237K)
Unemployment Rate, February (8:30): 4.7% actual versus 4.7% expected, 4.8%
prior
Avg. Hourly Earnings, February (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected,
0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)
Average Workweek, February (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.4
prior (no revisions)
Treasury Budget, February (14:00): -$192.0B actual versus -$192.6B prior
March 14 - Tuesday
PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.6% prior
Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
March 15 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 03/11 (7:00)
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/11 (7:00): 3.3% prior
CPI, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.6% prior
Core CPI, February (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Retail Sales, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.8% prior
Empire Manufacturing, March (8:30): 14.5 expected, 18.7 prior
Business Inventories, January (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
NAHB Housing Market , March (10:00): 65 expected, 65 prior
Crude Inventories, 03/11 (10:30): +8.2M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, March (14:00): 0.875% expected, 0.625% prior
Net Long-Term TIC Flows, March (16:00): -$12.9B prior
March 16 - Thursday
Housing Starts, February (8:30): 1260K expected, 1246K prior
Building Permits, February (8:30): 1251K expected, 1285K prior
Initial Claims, 03/11 (8:30): 242K expected, 243K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/04 (8:30): 2058K prior
Philadelphia Fed, March (8:30): 25.0 expected, 43.3 prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, January (10:00): 5.501M prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 03/11 (10:30): -68 bcf prior
March 17 - Friday
Industrial Production, February (9:15): 0.2% expected, -0.3% prior
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 75.4% expected, 75.3% prior
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.6% prior
Michigan Sentiment, March (10:00): 96.8 expected, 96.3 prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Jobs Report comes, goes, stocks rise, fade, but SOX breaks to a higher
high.
- Jobs headlines are okay while the underlying numbers are finally better.
- Analysts calling for a pullback from the highs. Is that not just what
happened or do they mean a correction?
- Leaders have a pretty good Friday as they and the uptrends still don't
have any real sellers.
- This week sees the Fed rate decision, Dutch election, and debt ceiling all
hit on Wednesday.
February jobs topped Friday's news. It was an okay report on the headlines,
beating expectations along with an upward revision to January. The
internals were significantly better with participation rising to 63.0% as
those not in the workforce fell another 176K on top of January's 736K,
combining for the biggest ever 2 month drop.
Non-farm payrolls: 235K versus 188K expected versus 239K January (from 227K)
Unemployment: 4.7% versus 4.7% expected versus 4.8% January
Hourly wages: 0.2% versus 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%). +2.8% year/year
Average hourly workweek: Steady at 34.4. Again.
Participation: 63.0%
The mix of jobs improved as well:
Construction 58K, roughly a 10 year high water mark
Manufacturing 28K
Mining 6K, a modest improvement
Private Education 39K
Professional and Business: 37K
Healthcare 27K
Leisure and Hospitality 26K
Retail -26K
Futures were already higher ahead of the report, and when the news hit, they
rallied a bit farther. The news, however, did not have a lot of staying
power. Even before the market opened stocks slid off the pre-market highs,
and when the opening bell sounded prices slid. Three down legs into early
afternoon led to back half recovery, but it was a very anticlimactic session
to a much anticipated report that could have been, but was not, the next
upside catalyst.
SP500 7.73, 0.33%
NASDAQ 22.92, 0.39%
DJ30 44.79, 0.21%
SP400 0.42%
RUTX 0.38%
SOX 1.17%
VOLUME: NYSE -4.5%, NASDAQ +6%. Lower on NYSE as the indices traded more or
less flat, up on NASDAQ as it broke higher, albeit modestly. Not bad
price/volume action.
A/D: NYSE 2:1, NASDAQ 1.4:1. A bit of a recovery in the small and midcaps
helped breadth recover to decent levels.
Thus the market was still in the test mode, more or less; SOX did break to a
higher high, and it is hard to argue with a semiconductor index that wants
to lead higher. Often the rest of the market follows.
Perhaps the market is still contemplating what is to come this week: FOMC
rate decision, Dutch election with a populist anti-EU candidate leading, and
the US debt hitting the ceiling, and all on Wednesday. Will they or won't
they raise it? Republican President, republican Congress. Sure they will.
After the super positive, olive branch extending SOTU address and subsequent
one-day gap and rally, the stock market has tested that move. That entire
move. Lots of infighting subsequent to the address, lots of obstructionism,
yet the Trump administration keeps coming out in decent shape. More
companies announce jobs in the US, even foreign companies. CEO's that talk
with the President come out pumped and excited. Polls show continued
approval of the job being done.
At the same time there is a lot of negativity surrounding a market testing
back from higher highs. I have made it clear; I am not a fan of the move
because of the weak internals and the high bullish sentiment. Yet,
leadership remains despite the dropout of some leader groups (e.g. oil
stocks). Moreover, as soon as the market started to test, bullish advisor
sentiment dropped precipitously -- it would appear advisors are as jumpy as
a 10 year old in a Halloween fright house.
Thus, while we still view this rally as being on its last legs, that is just
opinion. The market punched out some new highs, is putting in a very
orderly test of those highs, and it still has leadership in great position
and indeed making good moves. We bought into some of those moves on Friday
after moving into other positions during the week. Some great moves are in
progress from this new rebound of leaders -- even as the market tests.
SIMO, CTRP, PLX, IMMU, VRSN, BLUE, SWKS, AVGO, SOHU, ATHM -- excellent moves
even as the market tests, not suggesting that buyers are backing away from
the market. Bids are still there, and you have to, as corny as it sounds,
follow the leaders.
MARKET
CHARTS
SOX: The star of the session, SOX put in a rather unheralded break to a new
high, gapping and rallying past the late February high. SOX put in a 3 week
lateral move after a new high in February, and is now at a new high once
more. SOX tends to lead the rest of the market.
NASDAQ: After a four day lateral move over the 20 day EMA, NASDAQ gapped
upside, filled the gap, then rebounded to hold the move. All in all, not bad
with a nice showing of above average volume and some life moving back into
some chips while FANG still showed some upside.
SP500: After a 6 session test of the post-SOTU rally, SP500 completely
filled the gap higher, holding the 20 day EMA. Friday a gap higher to a
doji. Decent but nothing breakthrough, nothing showing a clear return to
the upside. It delivered a bounce where it needed to but did not add any
bling to it.
DJ30: Gapped modestly higher to a doji as well, also coming off a gap fill
and 20 day EMA test. Started higher, but that is about all it did.
SP400: After a 6 session fade to the 50 day MA's, SP400 midcaps gapped
higher Friday but could only manage a doji. As with SP500, it delivered a
bounce where it needed to but not anything more.
RUTX: The small caps fell into the lower third of the December to February
range as of Thursday, posted a modest bounce with a doji. Nothing
definitive, just held after a week of downside.
LEADERSHIP
As noted, there is a swath of leadership from many sectors even as some have
broken lower such as oil stocks. Even some of those, however, after long
selloffs, are going to try and bounce.
Biotech: Continues to produce some impressive moves. CORT is surging for
us. IMMU is in a powerful move. PLX exploded higher. CELG was up on the
week then tried to give it up Friday. BLUE put in solid moves up off the 20
day EMA test. SRPT looks ready to move. Some got away with upside gaps,
e.g. TTPH.
China: Some great moves again Friday, e.g. CTRP, ATHM, SOHU. YY looks
good. Still waiting for BIDU, BABA, YNDX to start upside again.
Chips: Definitely coming back to life as evidenced Friday. SIMO put in a
great week for us as we caught it on the breakout. SWKS put in a new high.
SLAB regained its feet after that early March gap lower, starting up off the
50 day MA on strong volume. AVGO surged Friday.
Financial: Not a spectacular week, but they held the line. BAC working in
a flat lateral move over the 10 day EMA. C gapped higher Wednesday and
edged higher to the early January highs. JPM put in a nice test of the 20
day EMA, looks ready to move. GS looks a bit wobbly as of Friday, trying to
hold the 20 day EMA.
Oil: Bouncing some after big drops but have not reversed the move yet. CVX
bounced but has a lot of resistance. HAL bounced modestly. SPN bombed
lower. SWN will be ready to bounce after putting in a small double bottom.
Industrial machinery: Struggling. TEX broke lower. CAT remains in
trouble. CMI is holding over the 20 day EMA.
Metals: After some selling, some possibilities. AKS is trying to hold the
late January low, showing higher MACD on this second low. It is somewhat by
itself, however, as STLD, SCHN, RS have work to do. AA is trying to break
below the 50 day EMA and the late February low.
Miscellaneous: GRMN breaking higher after testing its earnings gap. VRSN
broke out on the week.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +44.79 points (+0.21%) to close at 20902.98
Nasdaq
Stats: +22.92 points (+0.39%) to close at 5861.73
Volume: 1.977B (+5.81%)
Up Volume: 1.23B (+261.52M)
Down Volume: 728.62M (-148.01M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.39 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.4 to 1
New Highs: 99 (+22)
New Lows: 40 (-26)
S&P
Stats: +7.73 points (+0.33%) to close at 2372.6
NYSE Volume: 838.7M (-4.51%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.03 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.32 to 1
New Highs: 71 (+30)
New Lows: 70 (-39)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.66; -0.64
VXN: 11.9; -0.57
VXO: 10.5; -0.67
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; -0.24
Bulls and Bears: Bulls fell back below 60 in a big drop. Bears back over
17. A bit of a bluster? Certainly in line with other sentiment we are
hearing.
Bulls: 57.7 versus 63.1
Bears: 17.3 versus 16.5
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 57.7 versus 63.1
63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6
versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8
versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1
versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0
versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9%
versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus
47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus
39.2
Bears: 17.3 versus 16.5
16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3
versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6
versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6
versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2%
versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7%
versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8%
versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.58% versus 2.60%. Trying to put in a second bottom at
the December low. Look oversold from this pattern. Now what does that
suggest? The Fed NOT hiking rates? Would it really do that? Perhaps a
bounce into the FOMC announcement Wednesday.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.60%
versus 2.55% versus 2.51% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus 2.46% versus
2.260% versus 2.367% versus 2.31% versus 2.38% versus 2.42% versus 2.43%
versus 2.42% versus 2.45% versus 2.50% versus 2.473% versus 2.43% versus
2.41% versus 2.398% versus 2.340% versus 2.393% versus 2.41% versus 2.48%
versus 2.474% versus 2.477% versus 2.44% versus 2.49% versus 2.48% versus
2.512% versus 2.52% versus 2.467% versus 2.40% versus 2.47% versus 2.468%
versus 2.422% versus 2.372%
EUR/USD: 1.06746 versus 1.05948, Euro surging back upside Thursday and
Friday. Bouncing up off the higher low.
Historical: 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214 versus 1.05327 versus 1.05710 versus 1.05877 versus
1.05616 versus 1.05830 versus 1.0557 versus 1.05474 versus 1.06108 versus
1.06665 versus 1.06148 versus 1.05762 versus 1.06023 versus 1.06411 versus
1.06557 versus 1.06825 versus 1.06814 versus 1.07219 versus 1.07880 versus
1.07605 versus 1.07892 versus 1.0791 versus 1.07294 versus 1.06957 versus
1.06843 versus 1.0683 versus 1.0756 versus 1.07274 versus 1.0761 versus
1.07027 versus 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450 versus
1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346 versus
105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155 versus
1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus
1.0392
USD/JPY: 114.807 versus 115.259. After a break higher Wednesday and
Thursday out of the handle, the dollar backed off.
Historical: 115.259 versus 114.563 versus 113.498 versus 113.966 versus
114.042 versus 114.169 versus 113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus
112.169 versus 112.745 versus 113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus
113.356 versus 113.880 versus 114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus
113.265 versus 113.401 versus 112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815 versus
112.567 versus 112.903 versus 112.68 versus 112.50 versus 114.493 versus
115.094 versus 114.469 versus 113.362 versus 113.850 versus 112.736 versus
114.39 versus 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983
Oil: 48.49, -0.79. Bombed lower Wednesday to Friday, closing just below
the 200 day SMA. This is where oil held in November, i.e. at the 200 day
SMA.
Gold: 1201.40, -1.80. Nine sessions to the downside, showing a doji just
below the 50 day SMA. Oversold near term.
MONDAY
Some important milestones this coming week converging Wednesday with the
FOMC rate hike (100% according to the Fed Funds Futures), the Dutch
election, and the US reaching the debt ceiling limit. Of course the Jobs
Report supposedly sealed the hike and that could have been a catalyst, but
it was not, at least not for the entire market; there were some good moves.
Friday I heard more than one market analyst talking about a pullback from
the highs being likely before the market rallied again. I looked at the
charts again just to make sure what I saw over the past 7 sessions. Yep,
still a nice orderly pullback off of the highs. Still no signs of sellers.
Now once again the indices have pulled right back off a higher high. Did it
in late January with a gap higher out of a 6 week lateral consolidation, but
they also immediately held the line and rallied sharply in February. New
high 8 sessions back on the post-SOTU rally, now a steady fade to fill the
gap and hold near support. Perhaps a pullback is coming, but with the index
action and the leadership action, once again there appears to be no sellers
of any number willing to take on the uptrend.
That can all change with the right news (wrong news for the bulls), but what
will that news be? The Dutch nationalists winning and wanting out of the EU
as did the UK? The market seemed to get used to the UK leaving and frankly
I don't think it would be surprised if the Dutch want out as well.
A Fed rate hike? That is supposed to be good news, right? Strong economy
if the Fed hikes, right? After 2 hikes in 15 months can the economy stand
another quarter point? If it cannot, and if the market cannot, then perhaps
the Fed grossly 'misoverestimated' the economy's strength. If that is the
case, well then stocks will ultimately react negatively to a hike.
The debt ceiling might be the silent rally killer. Treasury's Mnuchin is
asking to raise the debt limit to keep spending. The ironic news item is
the Deficit is down $90B since January.
So, reason to keep an eye out for what the politics are (and the Fed is
political by the way) as we watch how the indices bounce and behave AND how
leadership works. As of the end of the week it was working pretty well. Of
course we still took advantage of APC selling off to make some downside
money.
As for plays this week, we picked up some nice upside when things were not
so great the past week. Heck they are not all that great now according to
many pundits with this 'market top'. I guess we will just have to look at
those great upside setups and pass them up because the market might top off
of this pullback. Uh, hell no. As noted last week, the trend, despite all
misgivings, is still holding, and our worries or the worries of others don't
really change that trend and certainly have not changed the leaders setting
up and breaking upside. Until the leaders are breaking down and the trends
break, you look for stocks setting up for the upside and play them as them
make their moves.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5861.73
Resistance:
5912 is the March all-time high.
Support:
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 50 day EMA at 5697
The 50 day SMA at 5677
The 2016 trendline at 5630
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 200 day SMA at 5297
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 2372.60
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2329
2301 is the late January 2017 high
The 50 day EMA at 2313
The 50 day SMA at 2310
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
The 200 day SMA at 2195
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
Dow: Closed at 20,902.98
Resistance:
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 20,317
The 50 day SMA at 20,265
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
The 200 day SMA at 18,900
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
March 10 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, February (8:30): 235K actual versus 188K expected, 238K
prior (revised from 227K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, February (8:30): 227K actual versus 185K expected,
221K prior (revised from 237K)
Unemployment Rate, February (8:30): 4.7% actual versus 4.7% expected, 4.8%
prior
Avg. Hourly Earnings, February (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected,
0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)
Average Workweek, February (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.4
prior (no revisions)
Treasury Budget, February (14:00): -$192.0B actual versus -$192.6B prior
March 14 - Tuesday
PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.6% prior
Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
March 15 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 03/11 (7:00)
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/11 (7:00): 3.3% prior
CPI, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.6% prior
Core CPI, February (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Retail Sales, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, February (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.8% prior
Empire Manufacturing, March (8:30): 14.5 expected, 18.7 prior
Business Inventories, January (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
NAHB Housing Market , March (10:00): 65 expected, 65 prior
Crude Inventories, 03/11 (10:30): +8.2M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, March (14:00): 0.875% expected, 0.625% prior
Net Long-Term TIC Flows, March (16:00): -$12.9B prior
March 16 - Thursday
Housing Starts, February (8:30): 1260K expected, 1246K prior
Building Permits, February (8:30): 1251K expected, 1285K prior
Initial Claims, 03/11 (8:30): 242K expected, 243K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/04 (8:30): 2058K prior
Philadelphia Fed, March (8:30): 25.0 expected, 43.3 prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, January (10:00): 5.501M prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 03/11 (10:30): -68 bcf prior
March 17 - Friday
Industrial Production, February (9:15): 0.2% expected, -0.3% prior
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 75.4% expected, 75.3% prior
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.6% prior
Michigan Sentiment, March (10:00): 96.8 expected, 96.3 prior
End part 1 of 3
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Sunday, March 05, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 3-4-17
* * * *
3/4/2017 Investment House Daily
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Indices settle down, test the SOTU rally, leave themselves in good enough
position.
- Same old story with some new twists in DC
- What is so hard about the health care issue? Free markets do actually
work, unless your goal is control.
- Pundits say market surges, pundits say the end is near. Trend is up, no
sellers, and until leaders break down in quantity, the trend continues.
A bit of a hangover after the Wednesday Trump SOTU rally.
After a big surge such as Wednesday in response to a specific catalyst such
as the excitement over the State of the Union address, you have to see how
the market reacts. Thursday was problematic, particularly on the growth
indices; DJ30 and SP500, not so much.
Friday was no great day for the stock indices, but it was good for the
upside in that the indices held, to different degrees, the Wednesday
breakout. Again it was the large cap NYSE holding up quite well thanks to
their financial components while the other indices almost tested the entire
move.
The end result, however, are some pretty decent charts and definitely the
ability to extend the new, SOTU hope higher.
Of course the same old issues emerged immediately after the hope-inspired
move: AG Sessions accused of lying during confirmation, counter accusations
of the same conduct by all senators and House reps, wiretapping of Trump's
offices and campaign with references to Watergate -- you know, the usual
business in DC. One step forward, one step to who knows where.
That leaves many pundits split. After the Wednesday breakout the bullish of
bulls are supercharged, calling for DJ30 23K by Labor Day. Others are
calling for a drop after a last upside move spurred by this latest breakout.
I believed that there would be a last leg and then a drop; thus far that
last leg is still going. The right answer? The way the market goes.
There are many reasons to anticipate a decline even as the market broke to
new highs last week. There are some breaks in leadership. Okay, 'breaks'
are not really the right word. More like leadership is getting ragged and
it needs to clean itself up or find new leaders. That is what has kept the
move going, and with semiconductors, China, oil, and small caps in general
turning choppy (medium volatility) and sporting some breaks, the market
needs to generate some new leadership.
On top of that there is another week of 60+% bullish sentiment, hitting a
cycle high on its seventh of nine weeks over 60%. Coupled with that,
however, is an interesting phenomena that occurred: wealthy investors for
some big banks, etc. sold out only to have to move back in when the rally
continued. Bulls to bears back to reluctant bulls. That prompted BAC to
opine SP500 hitting 2450 as those clients moved back in. THEN the pullback.
Right now everyone is guessing at the top. Dangerous stuff. As long as the
market pushes new leaders upside it is a good idea to play the trend with
those good moves as your dominant strategy. Pick up some downside as they
set up bearish patterns and break lower, but most money has to be focused
with the trend in place.
Yes DC has and will have its impact. If Trump is stymied in the silent coup
many claim is occurring then there will be a stock price to pay. For now it
appears the market is willing to continue on faith that there is enough
momentum to get the job done. With a poll released this weekend showing
Trump with a 53% approval rating it would seem the detractors have not made
significant inroads, at least not yet. So, the market is holding a pretty
solid uptrend, still is summoning leadership, and thus the bias and
expectation, near term, remains upside.
NEWS/ECONOMY
The news impacting the stock market boils down to this: will Trump be able
to move his marquis programs through Congress: ACA repeal, tax reform.
After that there is immigration, etc., but the first two are key. As well
as one of his apparent new initiatives, reducing the federal government
size.
He has tweeted and/or discussed plans of reducing the State Department by
roughly 40%. If he would do that to ALL federal agencies and demand the
same output in services, the federal government might start loosely
approaching the level of private sector output. No slam against public
sector workers, but in many audits the findings are the same: to much staff
for the job at hand, too much management. Cut the middle out and let the
workers do their work without so many managers supposedly managing. That
would be truly game changing and might be the counter silent coup to the
silent coup.
Anyway, with respect to the ACA, the idiots in control of the House majority
show they have learned nothing after the TTP debacle where the document was
locked in a secret room where no cameras, phones, or any writing or copying
material was allowed. You could take notes about what you read and saw but
you had to leave the notes when you left. Those without impressive
photographic memories were simply SOL. Of course most in Congress NEVER
BOTHERED to even go look at it, so I suppose it doesn't really matter.
Garbage in, garbage out, right?
So, somewhere in DC there is a room with the House majority plan for the
ACA. And it is not a repeal. It is doing the same thing just not as much.
Like lessening the tension being used on the 'rack' in a medieval dungeon,
like toning down the level of the 'agony booth' on the parallel universe in
the classic Star Trek episode 'Mirror, Mirror.' Oh, THAT will make us all
whole.
What the hell? What about just the good old free market? Look what it did
for the cost of Lasik and other non-insured procedures: costs have
plummeted, quality is excellent, and now everyone can take part. There was
no fixed overhead, no 'insurance will pay for it' cost inflator attached so
those providing the service had to get real and get prices down to what the
market would bear. That capitalism is a pretty amazing thing.
Hmm, but could it work for insurance, without massive government oversight?
How could that possibly happen. Oh, auto insurance works pretty well; not
great, but pretty well because . . . you can shop all over the country for
it. Geico and others are offering plans where you can get the coverage you
want. Oh sure, you have to actually EDUCATE yourself on what you should
have, but we are grownups or at least should be. And by golly, it seems to
work. Prices are way, way down, and frankly could go even lower if the
regulation was further reduced.
How about college accounts? You don't have to go to your state. The first
529 plans were somewhat high priced but then you could buy them anywhere.
Prices plunged, quality was at least as good.
Brokerage and financial services. You probably don't remember when the big
brokers had the market locked up. You could only trade in large blocks,
minimum of 100 shares. Commissions were astronomical so no one wanted to
trade. Then along came Charles Schwab, and after several court fights the
age of the individual investor was born. People could all of the sudden
take control of their investments. They could shop for the best deal as
they built their own wealth. Prices plunged, and competition is STILL at
play 35 years later as Fidelity just dropped its fees again, now charging
just $4.95 per stock trade with very high quality service. Spreads have
narrowed, market information has improved -- so many wonderful things for
investors.
Wow, the free market CAN work, and it MOST CERTAINLY can and will work with
health insurance. When we had HSA's that actually were worth having we had
great choices and prices. We chose low premium, high deductible plans and
could save tax free into our account. I am talking for a self-employed
family, less than $300/month with a $5K deductible for the whole family,
100% coverage after deductible was paid, no exclusions. Great healthcare,
and that was WITHOUT the ability to really shop from state to state and have
competition lower it even more. Now we pay almost $3,000/month and suffer
an effective $12,000 deductible with a separate $6K carveout for my wife.
Free market versus controlled markets.
Why then try to control the market process? Control. If you control one of
the large and important areas in a person's life, particularly healthcare,
you have a lot of say over a person's life. The governing class, whether
espousing to be liberals or conservatives, democrats or republicans,
communists or capitalists, all want power and control. What better way to
control the masses than control healthcare, education, communications (the
unchecked ability to eavesdrop on every communication), and money (required
declaration of every penny a person possesses, control of money rates, and
ultimately, eliminating cash altogether). You make the call.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP500, DJ30: Both are holding the upper gap point from the Wednesday
post-SOTU gap and run, showing tight doji. They are in very good position
to continue the move.
NASDAQ: Faded through the 10 day EMA Friday, but recovered to hold the 10
day EMA and a modest gain. That keeps the breakout intact, the trend up the
10 day EMA in place. Some volatility crept into NASDAQ, but it was on
mostly lower relative volume, and NASDAQ is currently holding that trend. It
can really use the chips to hang onto the trend.
SOX: No new high for SOX on the week as the SOTU address produced a bounce
off the 20 day EMA, but by Friday SOX was right back at the 20 day, closing
with a doji. The trend remains in place using that near support, but over
the past two weeks SOX turned choppy, selling back but it did manage to
close out with the trend. Limping along for now, but it is following the
other indices.
SP400: Midcaps rallied to a higher high Wednesday on the SOTU but sold half
the gain Thursday. Friday SP400 reached lower but held the 10 day EMA on
the close. That keeps the uptrend in place, but as with NASDAQ, a lot of
volatility the past 2 weeks as SP400 continued the uptrend. Lower MACD
suggests slowing momentum. SP400 will show great surge pops but then it
also shows selling sessions on their heels. Will have to hold the trend,
heal itself, then continue. As with SOX, for now it is holding on and
following the other indices.
RUTX: Closed lower Friday but fractionally, holding the 20 day EMA on the
low and showing a tight doji. That is a good hold of support, but as with
SP400, the small caps turned volatile the past 1.5 weeks after moving to a
higher high. Another new high Wednesday was immediately sold. Thus far,
however, no breakdown as it tests and holds the break over the December to
January range.
LEADERSHIP
Materials: Still volatile, surging post-SOTU, selling after that. Friday a
move higher, but not taking on the Wednesday highs. Example: CX.
Interesting thing, CX says it will bid for concrete on the border wall. LPX
is testing the 10 day EMA, looking a bit heavy after lethargic trading on
the week. USCR (concrete) rallied up to the late January high on low MACD,
some decent volumes. Trying to work, but very choppy.
Metals: Weak to end the week but some are still holding support, e.g. STLD.
Have to get the patterns back together, however. AKS showed a doji on
Friday after falling down away from resistance Thursday. AKS is not bad,
but is not the best pattern in the market by a long shot. Precious metals
suffered another week as the Fed appears ready to actually hike rates.
Semiconductors: Ups and downs. AVGO reported strong earnings on the week
and was up though even the surge was sold some. AMD gapped below the 20 day
EMA Friday, holding the mid-February closing low so we see if it can bounce.
XLNX still cannot break the pull of the 50 day MA. SWKS, MCHP, LRCX, QRVO
remain in their trends, but they have been on those trends for some time.
Financial: All financials rallied Wednesday then tested the move Thursday,
Friday rebounding to hold much of the move. C, BAC, JPM all show the same
testing action. GS similar as well. The group is in good shape.
FAANG: FB continued a trend ups the 10 day EMA but rather slow in the
uptake last week. AAPL broke higher Wednesday, held the move to the
weekend. AMZN never made it to a higher high, but did hold the 10 day EMA
on the close. NFLX broke lower Thursday, but showed a doji Friday over the
upper gap point. GOOG rallied to the January highs Wednesday, tested to the
10 day EMA Friday.
Drugs/Biotech: Still looks to be, again, an up and coming group. CELG
rallied early week, tested to the 10 day EMA Friday in a 1-2-3 test, then
rallied higher Friday off that test. AMGN is working on a nice trend up the
10 day EMA. JAZZ is in a nice 3 week test of a run higher into early
February. IMMU still looks as if it wants to break higher while CORT
continues its impressive climb up the 10 day EMA toward the target.
Oil: Breaking down as a group. APC sold to a lower low on this fade. HAL
is struggling below the 50 day MA's. CVX is trying to hold the line and MRO
is trying to set a base over the 200 day SMA, but those are works in
progress. SN is interesting in a pullback to the 50 day MA, but many have a
lot of work to do.
China: Mixed and that is a change for the worse. CTRP still looks good
over the 10 day EMA. SOHU can still pull off a nice break higher as can
VIPS and BABA. BIDU is still in the tank. SINA is struggling. NTES
struggled on the week but held the 20 day EMA Thursday.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +2.74 points (+0.01%) to close at 21005.71
Nasdaq
Stats: +9.53 points (+0.16%) to close at 5870.75
Volume: 1.843B (-8.96%)
Up Volume: 893.07M (+255.89M)
Down Volume: 905.84M (-474.16M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.04 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.23 to 1
New Highs: 80 (-69)
New Lows: 38 (-7)
S&P
Stats: +1.2 points (+0.05%) to close at 2383.12
NYSE Volume: 825.3M (-2.38%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.07 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.73 to 1
New Highs: 65 (-61)
New Lows: 38 (+7)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.96; -0.85
VXN: 11.77; -0.94
VXO: 10.08; -1.92
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; -0.08. Jumped over 1.0 Thursday and Tuesday.
At this juncture that simply looks like some protection buying.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls rallied to a new cycle high while bears slipped back
a whole point. 7 of 9 weeks over 60%. Not at cycle lows for bears, but
historically low.
Bulls: 63.1 versus 61.2
Bears: 16.5 versus 17.5
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 63.1 versus 61.2
61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6
versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3
versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5
versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9%
versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus
45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 16.5 versus 17.5
17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3
versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3
versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8
versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6%
versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus
23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6%
versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9%
versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.48% versus 2.46%.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.46%
versus 2.260% versus 2.367% versus 2.31% versus 2.38% versus 2.42% versus
2.43% versus 2.42% versus 2.45% versus 2.50% versus 2.473% versus 2.43%
versus 2.41% versus 2.398% versus 2.340% versus 2.393% versus 2.41% versus
2.48% versus 2.474% versus 2.477% versus 2.44% versus 2.49% versus 2.48%
versus 2.512% versus 2.52% versus 2.467% versus 2.40% versus 2.47% versus
2.468% versus 2.422% versus 2.372%
EUR/USD: 1.60266 versus 1.05214. Jumped late week even though Yellen pretty
much confirmed a rate hike. Could it be Commerce Secretary Ross talking
about a "sensible" NAFTA deal?
Historical: 1.05214 versus 1.05327 versus 1.05710 versus 1.05877 versus
1.05616 versus 1.05830 versus 1.0557 versus 1.05474 versus 1.06108 versus
1.06665 versus 1.06148 versus 1.05762 versus 1.06023 versus 1.06411 versus
1.06557 versus 1.06825 versus 1.06814 versus 1.07219 versus 1.07880 versus
1.07605 versus 1.07892 versus 1.0791 versus 1.07294 versus 1.06957 versus
1.06843 versus 1.0683 versus 1.0756 versus 1.07274 versus 1.0761 versus
1.07027 versus 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450 versus
1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346 versus
105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155 versus
1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus
1.0392
USD/JPY: 114.042 versus 114.169. Rallied on the week just over the 50 day
SMA, then stalled Thursday and Friday.
Historical: 114.169 versus 113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus
112.169 versus 112.745 versus 113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus
113.356 versus 113.880 versus 114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus
113.265 versus 113.401 versus 112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815 versus
112.567 versus 112.903 versus 112.68 versus 112.50 versus 114.493 versus
115.094 versus 114.469 versus 113.362 versus 113.850 versus 112.736 versus
114.39 versus 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983
Oil: 53.33, +0.72. Sold hard to the 50 day EMA then bounced Friday. Tried
the 54-55 level the prior week, stalled, then fell to support. Now it shows
if it can bounce again.
Gold: 1226.50, -6.40. Gold rallied to the 200 day SMA the prior week and
then spent the past week testing the move, falling back to the 50 day EMA
Friday.
MONDAY
The Fed has moved into its quiet time with a series of statements and
speeches about how the time is appropriate for a rate hike. If the Jobs
Report Friday comes in solid enough, then March is on for a rate hike. At
this stage of the Fed cycle and with the hope trade in place, a good report
should be met with cheer if not much rejoicing. Yea.
As noted, the trends remain in place. There is some chop and moderate
volatility in the smaller indices, but they are following the large cap NYSE
lead, and that is still upside. Financial stocks should still provide
leadership, perhaps biotechs and drugs will continue improving, and we will
see if the chips can pull out of their near term choppy trade. The market
will need more than a narrow group of leaders to seriously rally, but of
course certain indices can still push higher on a narrow band of gainers,
e.g. DJ30, SP500.
The trend remains higher with some signs of wear and tear and internal and
sentiment issues, but there is still a lack of sellers -- seller-itis -- and
without earnest sellers, the downside cannot get a foothold. Sure the
market will fade and test moves with a lack of bids, just as it is doing
now. To this point, however, the shortage of bids has been met with new
buys after a rather modest pullback.
Therefore the majority of plays you have to look at are in line with that
trend. It is noteworthy how many good plays/setups there are as that gives
you a barometer of the life of the current upside leg, i.e. if there are few
it could take more testing to better setup the continuation of the upside
move. It does not mean the uptrend is over; that would take actual
breakdowns in several leading groups, demonstrated usually by breakouts that
fail relatively quickly that then break down the pattern. That is when you
have to worry that the trend is over. Before that, it is usually just a lot
of worry for no real reason.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5870.75
Resistance:
5912 is the March all-time high.
Support:
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 50 day EMA at 5664
The 50 day SMA at 5640
The 2016 trendline at 5604
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 5270
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 2383.12
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2320
2301 is the late January 2017 high
The 50 day EMA at 2305
The 50 day SMA at 2300
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 2187
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
Dow: Closed at 21,005.71
Resistance:
Support:
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
The 50 day EMA at 20,189
The 50 day SMA at 20,170
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
The 200 day SMA at 18,816
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
March 6 - Monday
Factory Orders, January (10:00): 1.0% expected, 1.3% prior
March 7 - Tuesday
Trade Balance, January (8:30): -$48.5B expected, -$44.3B prior
Consumer Credit, January (15:00): $17.0B expected, $14.2B prior
March 8 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/04 (7:00): 5.8% prior
ADP Employment Chang, February (8:15): 180K expected, 246K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q4 (8:30): 1.5% expected, 1.3% prior
Unit Labor Costs - R, Q4 (8:30): 1.6% expected, 1.7% prior
Wholesale Inventorie, January (10:00): -0.1% expected, 1.0% prior
Crude Inventories, 03/04 (10:30): +1.5M prior
March 9 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, February (7:30): -38.8% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., February (8:30): 0.1% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, February (8:30): -0.2% prior
Initial Claims, 03/04 (8:30): 240K expected, 223K prior
Continuing Claims, 2/25 (8:30): 2066K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 03/04 (10:30): +7 bcf prior
March 10 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, February (8:30): 188K expected, 227K prior
Nonfarm Private Payr, February (8:30): 185K expected, 237K prior
Unemployment Rate, February (8:30): 4.7% expected, 4.8% prior
Avg. Hourly Earnings, February (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Average Workweek, February (8:30): 34.4 expected, 34.4 prior
Treasury Budget, February (14:00): -$192.6B prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Indices settle down, test the SOTU rally, leave themselves in good enough
position.
- Same old story with some new twists in DC
- What is so hard about the health care issue? Free markets do actually
work, unless your goal is control.
- Pundits say market surges, pundits say the end is near. Trend is up, no
sellers, and until leaders break down in quantity, the trend continues.
A bit of a hangover after the Wednesday Trump SOTU rally.
After a big surge such as Wednesday in response to a specific catalyst such
as the excitement over the State of the Union address, you have to see how
the market reacts. Thursday was problematic, particularly on the growth
indices; DJ30 and SP500, not so much.
Friday was no great day for the stock indices, but it was good for the
upside in that the indices held, to different degrees, the Wednesday
breakout. Again it was the large cap NYSE holding up quite well thanks to
their financial components while the other indices almost tested the entire
move.
The end result, however, are some pretty decent charts and definitely the
ability to extend the new, SOTU hope higher.
Of course the same old issues emerged immediately after the hope-inspired
move: AG Sessions accused of lying during confirmation, counter accusations
of the same conduct by all senators and House reps, wiretapping of Trump's
offices and campaign with references to Watergate -- you know, the usual
business in DC. One step forward, one step to who knows where.
That leaves many pundits split. After the Wednesday breakout the bullish of
bulls are supercharged, calling for DJ30 23K by Labor Day. Others are
calling for a drop after a last upside move spurred by this latest breakout.
I believed that there would be a last leg and then a drop; thus far that
last leg is still going. The right answer? The way the market goes.
There are many reasons to anticipate a decline even as the market broke to
new highs last week. There are some breaks in leadership. Okay, 'breaks'
are not really the right word. More like leadership is getting ragged and
it needs to clean itself up or find new leaders. That is what has kept the
move going, and with semiconductors, China, oil, and small caps in general
turning choppy (medium volatility) and sporting some breaks, the market
needs to generate some new leadership.
On top of that there is another week of 60+% bullish sentiment, hitting a
cycle high on its seventh of nine weeks over 60%. Coupled with that,
however, is an interesting phenomena that occurred: wealthy investors for
some big banks, etc. sold out only to have to move back in when the rally
continued. Bulls to bears back to reluctant bulls. That prompted BAC to
opine SP500 hitting 2450 as those clients moved back in. THEN the pullback.
Right now everyone is guessing at the top. Dangerous stuff. As long as the
market pushes new leaders upside it is a good idea to play the trend with
those good moves as your dominant strategy. Pick up some downside as they
set up bearish patterns and break lower, but most money has to be focused
with the trend in place.
Yes DC has and will have its impact. If Trump is stymied in the silent coup
many claim is occurring then there will be a stock price to pay. For now it
appears the market is willing to continue on faith that there is enough
momentum to get the job done. With a poll released this weekend showing
Trump with a 53% approval rating it would seem the detractors have not made
significant inroads, at least not yet. So, the market is holding a pretty
solid uptrend, still is summoning leadership, and thus the bias and
expectation, near term, remains upside.
NEWS/ECONOMY
The news impacting the stock market boils down to this: will Trump be able
to move his marquis programs through Congress: ACA repeal, tax reform.
After that there is immigration, etc., but the first two are key. As well
as one of his apparent new initiatives, reducing the federal government
size.
He has tweeted and/or discussed plans of reducing the State Department by
roughly 40%. If he would do that to ALL federal agencies and demand the
same output in services, the federal government might start loosely
approaching the level of private sector output. No slam against public
sector workers, but in many audits the findings are the same: to much staff
for the job at hand, too much management. Cut the middle out and let the
workers do their work without so many managers supposedly managing. That
would be truly game changing and might be the counter silent coup to the
silent coup.
Anyway, with respect to the ACA, the idiots in control of the House majority
show they have learned nothing after the TTP debacle where the document was
locked in a secret room where no cameras, phones, or any writing or copying
material was allowed. You could take notes about what you read and saw but
you had to leave the notes when you left. Those without impressive
photographic memories were simply SOL. Of course most in Congress NEVER
BOTHERED to even go look at it, so I suppose it doesn't really matter.
Garbage in, garbage out, right?
So, somewhere in DC there is a room with the House majority plan for the
ACA. And it is not a repeal. It is doing the same thing just not as much.
Like lessening the tension being used on the 'rack' in a medieval dungeon,
like toning down the level of the 'agony booth' on the parallel universe in
the classic Star Trek episode 'Mirror, Mirror.' Oh, THAT will make us all
whole.
What the hell? What about just the good old free market? Look what it did
for the cost of Lasik and other non-insured procedures: costs have
plummeted, quality is excellent, and now everyone can take part. There was
no fixed overhead, no 'insurance will pay for it' cost inflator attached so
those providing the service had to get real and get prices down to what the
market would bear. That capitalism is a pretty amazing thing.
Hmm, but could it work for insurance, without massive government oversight?
How could that possibly happen. Oh, auto insurance works pretty well; not
great, but pretty well because . . . you can shop all over the country for
it. Geico and others are offering plans where you can get the coverage you
want. Oh sure, you have to actually EDUCATE yourself on what you should
have, but we are grownups or at least should be. And by golly, it seems to
work. Prices are way, way down, and frankly could go even lower if the
regulation was further reduced.
How about college accounts? You don't have to go to your state. The first
529 plans were somewhat high priced but then you could buy them anywhere.
Prices plunged, quality was at least as good.
Brokerage and financial services. You probably don't remember when the big
brokers had the market locked up. You could only trade in large blocks,
minimum of 100 shares. Commissions were astronomical so no one wanted to
trade. Then along came Charles Schwab, and after several court fights the
age of the individual investor was born. People could all of the sudden
take control of their investments. They could shop for the best deal as
they built their own wealth. Prices plunged, and competition is STILL at
play 35 years later as Fidelity just dropped its fees again, now charging
just $4.95 per stock trade with very high quality service. Spreads have
narrowed, market information has improved -- so many wonderful things for
investors.
Wow, the free market CAN work, and it MOST CERTAINLY can and will work with
health insurance. When we had HSA's that actually were worth having we had
great choices and prices. We chose low premium, high deductible plans and
could save tax free into our account. I am talking for a self-employed
family, less than $300/month with a $5K deductible for the whole family,
100% coverage after deductible was paid, no exclusions. Great healthcare,
and that was WITHOUT the ability to really shop from state to state and have
competition lower it even more. Now we pay almost $3,000/month and suffer
an effective $12,000 deductible with a separate $6K carveout for my wife.
Free market versus controlled markets.
Why then try to control the market process? Control. If you control one of
the large and important areas in a person's life, particularly healthcare,
you have a lot of say over a person's life. The governing class, whether
espousing to be liberals or conservatives, democrats or republicans,
communists or capitalists, all want power and control. What better way to
control the masses than control healthcare, education, communications (the
unchecked ability to eavesdrop on every communication), and money (required
declaration of every penny a person possesses, control of money rates, and
ultimately, eliminating cash altogether). You make the call.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP500, DJ30: Both are holding the upper gap point from the Wednesday
post-SOTU gap and run, showing tight doji. They are in very good position
to continue the move.
NASDAQ: Faded through the 10 day EMA Friday, but recovered to hold the 10
day EMA and a modest gain. That keeps the breakout intact, the trend up the
10 day EMA in place. Some volatility crept into NASDAQ, but it was on
mostly lower relative volume, and NASDAQ is currently holding that trend. It
can really use the chips to hang onto the trend.
SOX: No new high for SOX on the week as the SOTU address produced a bounce
off the 20 day EMA, but by Friday SOX was right back at the 20 day, closing
with a doji. The trend remains in place using that near support, but over
the past two weeks SOX turned choppy, selling back but it did manage to
close out with the trend. Limping along for now, but it is following the
other indices.
SP400: Midcaps rallied to a higher high Wednesday on the SOTU but sold half
the gain Thursday. Friday SP400 reached lower but held the 10 day EMA on
the close. That keeps the uptrend in place, but as with NASDAQ, a lot of
volatility the past 2 weeks as SP400 continued the uptrend. Lower MACD
suggests slowing momentum. SP400 will show great surge pops but then it
also shows selling sessions on their heels. Will have to hold the trend,
heal itself, then continue. As with SOX, for now it is holding on and
following the other indices.
RUTX: Closed lower Friday but fractionally, holding the 20 day EMA on the
low and showing a tight doji. That is a good hold of support, but as with
SP400, the small caps turned volatile the past 1.5 weeks after moving to a
higher high. Another new high Wednesday was immediately sold. Thus far,
however, no breakdown as it tests and holds the break over the December to
January range.
LEADERSHIP
Materials: Still volatile, surging post-SOTU, selling after that. Friday a
move higher, but not taking on the Wednesday highs. Example: CX.
Interesting thing, CX says it will bid for concrete on the border wall. LPX
is testing the 10 day EMA, looking a bit heavy after lethargic trading on
the week. USCR (concrete) rallied up to the late January high on low MACD,
some decent volumes. Trying to work, but very choppy.
Metals: Weak to end the week but some are still holding support, e.g. STLD.
Have to get the patterns back together, however. AKS showed a doji on
Friday after falling down away from resistance Thursday. AKS is not bad,
but is not the best pattern in the market by a long shot. Precious metals
suffered another week as the Fed appears ready to actually hike rates.
Semiconductors: Ups and downs. AVGO reported strong earnings on the week
and was up though even the surge was sold some. AMD gapped below the 20 day
EMA Friday, holding the mid-February closing low so we see if it can bounce.
XLNX still cannot break the pull of the 50 day MA. SWKS, MCHP, LRCX, QRVO
remain in their trends, but they have been on those trends for some time.
Financial: All financials rallied Wednesday then tested the move Thursday,
Friday rebounding to hold much of the move. C, BAC, JPM all show the same
testing action. GS similar as well. The group is in good shape.
FAANG: FB continued a trend ups the 10 day EMA but rather slow in the
uptake last week. AAPL broke higher Wednesday, held the move to the
weekend. AMZN never made it to a higher high, but did hold the 10 day EMA
on the close. NFLX broke lower Thursday, but showed a doji Friday over the
upper gap point. GOOG rallied to the January highs Wednesday, tested to the
10 day EMA Friday.
Drugs/Biotech: Still looks to be, again, an up and coming group. CELG
rallied early week, tested to the 10 day EMA Friday in a 1-2-3 test, then
rallied higher Friday off that test. AMGN is working on a nice trend up the
10 day EMA. JAZZ is in a nice 3 week test of a run higher into early
February. IMMU still looks as if it wants to break higher while CORT
continues its impressive climb up the 10 day EMA toward the target.
Oil: Breaking down as a group. APC sold to a lower low on this fade. HAL
is struggling below the 50 day MA's. CVX is trying to hold the line and MRO
is trying to set a base over the 200 day SMA, but those are works in
progress. SN is interesting in a pullback to the 50 day MA, but many have a
lot of work to do.
China: Mixed and that is a change for the worse. CTRP still looks good
over the 10 day EMA. SOHU can still pull off a nice break higher as can
VIPS and BABA. BIDU is still in the tank. SINA is struggling. NTES
struggled on the week but held the 20 day EMA Thursday.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +2.74 points (+0.01%) to close at 21005.71
Nasdaq
Stats: +9.53 points (+0.16%) to close at 5870.75
Volume: 1.843B (-8.96%)
Up Volume: 893.07M (+255.89M)
Down Volume: 905.84M (-474.16M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.04 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.23 to 1
New Highs: 80 (-69)
New Lows: 38 (-7)
S&P
Stats: +1.2 points (+0.05%) to close at 2383.12
NYSE Volume: 825.3M (-2.38%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.07 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.73 to 1
New Highs: 65 (-61)
New Lows: 38 (+7)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.96; -0.85
VXN: 11.77; -0.94
VXO: 10.08; -1.92
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; -0.08. Jumped over 1.0 Thursday and Tuesday.
At this juncture that simply looks like some protection buying.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls rallied to a new cycle high while bears slipped back
a whole point. 7 of 9 weeks over 60%. Not at cycle lows for bears, but
historically low.
Bulls: 63.1 versus 61.2
Bears: 16.5 versus 17.5
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 63.1 versus 61.2
61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6
versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3
versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5
versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9%
versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus
45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 16.5 versus 17.5
17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3
versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3
versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8
versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6%
versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus
23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6%
versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9%
versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.48% versus 2.46%.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.46%
versus 2.260% versus 2.367% versus 2.31% versus 2.38% versus 2.42% versus
2.43% versus 2.42% versus 2.45% versus 2.50% versus 2.473% versus 2.43%
versus 2.41% versus 2.398% versus 2.340% versus 2.393% versus 2.41% versus
2.48% versus 2.474% versus 2.477% versus 2.44% versus 2.49% versus 2.48%
versus 2.512% versus 2.52% versus 2.467% versus 2.40% versus 2.47% versus
2.468% versus 2.422% versus 2.372%
EUR/USD: 1.60266 versus 1.05214. Jumped late week even though Yellen pretty
much confirmed a rate hike. Could it be Commerce Secretary Ross talking
about a "sensible" NAFTA deal?
Historical: 1.05214 versus 1.05327 versus 1.05710 versus 1.05877 versus
1.05616 versus 1.05830 versus 1.0557 versus 1.05474 versus 1.06108 versus
1.06665 versus 1.06148 versus 1.05762 versus 1.06023 versus 1.06411 versus
1.06557 versus 1.06825 versus 1.06814 versus 1.07219 versus 1.07880 versus
1.07605 versus 1.07892 versus 1.0791 versus 1.07294 versus 1.06957 versus
1.06843 versus 1.0683 versus 1.0756 versus 1.07274 versus 1.0761 versus
1.07027 versus 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450 versus
1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346 versus
105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155 versus
1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus
1.0392
USD/JPY: 114.042 versus 114.169. Rallied on the week just over the 50 day
SMA, then stalled Thursday and Friday.
Historical: 114.169 versus 113.951 versus 112.966 versus 223.982 versus
112.169 versus 112.745 versus 113.324 versus 113.399 versus 112.906 versus
113.356 versus 113.880 versus 114.306 versus 113.65 versus 113.856 versus
113.265 versus 113.401 versus 112.207 versus 112.332 versus 111.815 versus
112.567 versus 112.903 versus 112.68 versus 112.50 versus 114.493 versus
115.094 versus 114.469 versus 113.362 versus 113.850 versus 112.736 versus
114.39 versus 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983
Oil: 53.33, +0.72. Sold hard to the 50 day EMA then bounced Friday. Tried
the 54-55 level the prior week, stalled, then fell to support. Now it shows
if it can bounce again.
Gold: 1226.50, -6.40. Gold rallied to the 200 day SMA the prior week and
then spent the past week testing the move, falling back to the 50 day EMA
Friday.
MONDAY
The Fed has moved into its quiet time with a series of statements and
speeches about how the time is appropriate for a rate hike. If the Jobs
Report Friday comes in solid enough, then March is on for a rate hike. At
this stage of the Fed cycle and with the hope trade in place, a good report
should be met with cheer if not much rejoicing. Yea.
As noted, the trends remain in place. There is some chop and moderate
volatility in the smaller indices, but they are following the large cap NYSE
lead, and that is still upside. Financial stocks should still provide
leadership, perhaps biotechs and drugs will continue improving, and we will
see if the chips can pull out of their near term choppy trade. The market
will need more than a narrow group of leaders to seriously rally, but of
course certain indices can still push higher on a narrow band of gainers,
e.g. DJ30, SP500.
The trend remains higher with some signs of wear and tear and internal and
sentiment issues, but there is still a lack of sellers -- seller-itis -- and
without earnest sellers, the downside cannot get a foothold. Sure the
market will fade and test moves with a lack of bids, just as it is doing
now. To this point, however, the shortage of bids has been met with new
buys after a rather modest pullback.
Therefore the majority of plays you have to look at are in line with that
trend. It is noteworthy how many good plays/setups there are as that gives
you a barometer of the life of the current upside leg, i.e. if there are few
it could take more testing to better setup the continuation of the upside
move. It does not mean the uptrend is over; that would take actual
breakdowns in several leading groups, demonstrated usually by breakouts that
fail relatively quickly that then break down the pattern. That is when you
have to worry that the trend is over. Before that, it is usually just a lot
of worry for no real reason.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5870.75
Resistance:
5912 is the March all-time high.
Support:
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 50 day EMA at 5664
The 50 day SMA at 5640
The 2016 trendline at 5604
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 5270
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 2383.12
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2320
2301 is the late January 2017 high
The 50 day EMA at 2305
The 50 day SMA at 2300
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 2187
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
Dow: Closed at 21,005.71
Resistance:
Support:
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
The 50 day EMA at 20,189
The 50 day SMA at 20,170
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
The 200 day SMA at 18,816
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
March 6 - Monday
Factory Orders, January (10:00): 1.0% expected, 1.3% prior
March 7 - Tuesday
Trade Balance, January (8:30): -$48.5B expected, -$44.3B prior
Consumer Credit, January (15:00): $17.0B expected, $14.2B prior
March 8 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/04 (7:00): 5.8% prior
ADP Employment Chang, February (8:15): 180K expected, 246K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q4 (8:30): 1.5% expected, 1.3% prior
Unit Labor Costs - R, Q4 (8:30): 1.6% expected, 1.7% prior
Wholesale Inventorie, January (10:00): -0.1% expected, 1.0% prior
Crude Inventories, 03/04 (10:30): +1.5M prior
March 9 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, February (7:30): -38.8% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., February (8:30): 0.1% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, February (8:30): -0.2% prior
Initial Claims, 03/04 (8:30): 240K expected, 223K prior
Continuing Claims, 2/25 (8:30): 2066K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 03/04 (10:30): +7 bcf prior
March 10 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, February (8:30): 188K expected, 227K prior
Nonfarm Private Payr, February (8:30): 185K expected, 237K prior
Unemployment Rate, February (8:30): 4.7% expected, 4.8% prior
Avg. Hourly Earnings, February (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Average Workweek, February (8:30): 34.4 expected, 34.4 prior
Treasury Budget, February (14:00): -$192.6B prior
End part 1 of 3
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