* * * *
1/28/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: BLUE; CERN; EXAS; MU
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Market ponders a President who says what he will do and does it as the
rest of the world rethinks its strategy.
- Another day of stall post-breakout, but is SOX leading already?
- Obama final GDP a barking dog.
- Breakout, test, and now will there be follow through?
In the 1980's McDonald's introduced the McDLT, a tomato and lettuce sandwich
served in a split Styrofoam container that had the burger and bun on one
side and the lettuce and tomato on the other side. That way it could "keep
the hot side hot and the cool side cool." How groundbreaking. A hamburger
with lettuce and tomato. As David Letterman noted at the time, "is America
ready for a hamburger with lettuce and tomato?" Hey, it gave Jason
Alexander his start as he danced his way down the street in a McDonald's
commercial, amazing people with, yes, a lettuce and tomato hamburger.
The 'revolutionary' McDonald's McD.L.T. And Jason Alexander WITH hair.
Well, the US and indeed the world now has a President with the audacity to
say what he wants to do and follows through with it with no subterfuge or
obfuscation. After 28 years of Presidents making promises they never
intended to keep or giving us the old bait and switch to get our votes and
then forget us and go about their agenda, the US has to survive a President
who tells you what his agenda is and then makes no apologies for doing it.
Is the US, the leader of republics and democracies for over two centuries
ready for such openness from an elected official?
Sounds like a preposterous question, but in a world where non-citizens
blocked from immigrating to the US file suit so they can enter, it is not
surprising. Yes, non-citizens, many who have never been in the US, filing
lawsuits because the President ordered a cessation of immigration while the
methods used to vet would be immigrants is reviewed. If there were ever
cases that should be tossed from the courts in a matter of seconds, these
are them. Where is the legal standing for a non-citizen to demand entry into
a country? Try making that demand to Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China or
basically any country in the world. Good luck with that.
THE POINT: After a solid rally Wednesday that saw all indices outside of
RUTX break to new highs, Thursday and Friday they waffled. The first week
of the Trump presidency saw a flurry of action I cannot recall witnessing in
any administration in the 11 I have seen in my lifetime. Some of the
actions the markets cheered. Some of the actions the markets just don't
know what to make of. The irony is that Trump is doing exactly what he said
he was going to do and the markets are having a hard time figuring out if it
is what they want or not.
Thus after a breakout Wednesday, the week ended with a mixed and overall
weak Thursday followed by the same kind of confused, spineless trade on
Friday. Not that the indices rolled over or otherwise spit out the Tuesday
advance and the Wednesday breakout, but they certainly were not powering
ahead to end the week.
SP500 -1.99, -0.09%
NASDAQ 5.6, 0.10%
DJ30 -7.13, -0.04%
SP400 -0.49%
RUTX -0.36%
SOX 1.26%
VOLUME: NYSE -11%, NASDAQ -15%. A mixed day in the indices and a fade in
volume is not a bad thing. The day was no conviction and the volume shows
that as well.
A/D: NYSE -1.3:1, NASDAQ -1.1:1.
That does not mean they won't. After six weeks moving laterally on top of
the post-election rally the indices broke higher. That is a base, one where
they refused to give up their gains, typically a good sign of continuing
underlying strength. Now they broke higher and have held the gains with a
2-day lateral test. This coming week you look for confirmation of the
breakout, i.e. another strong upside move on solid volume. That will show
the buyers are back in after a short post-breakout respite, and it gives the
move a lot more credence that the breakout holds and continues.
Remember, the offset out there is the Bullish Advisor sentiment coming in at
60+% two of the last four weeks. That has marked the top of rallies for
many, many years, with the market subsequently correcting to some degree.
Timing is not a direct correlation. The selling can happen even weeks after
the levels are hit, usually with the market starting to show signs the move
stumbling into a rollover. If for instance the current break higher is
thrown back on volume in the coming week, that is pretty strong evidence the
break didn't have the support it needed and the upside odds are scaled back
even more.
That makes this coming week important for the upside. The market needs to
confirm the break higher with another break higher on some good volume.
There are plenty of good stocks out there in position to move and that are
moving. A rally needs to keep bringing the up to the front, and with the
moves late the prior week with some early leaders and then the Tuesday and
Wednesday break higher, they were doing that. After this pause they need to
bring it on again.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Q4 GDP ends the Obama era as the first President ever to never have one year
of at least 3% GDP growth.
Q4, GDP: 1.9% versus 2.2% expected versus 3.5% Q3.
2016 annual: 1.6% GDP growth. Nice showing for another year of recovery --
European style.
What can you say about this? The worst stretch of GDP growth since the
Great Depression. The first 10-year stretch without a year of 3% average
growth. I know there are those who say that the depth of the financial
crisis was such that we should not have anticipated strong growth. That
belies history. We have had depressions outside of the Great Depression
(that was only 'great' because it was so long) that recovered in a year.
It is the policies implemented to recover that determine the recovery
period. The Great Depression and the 1970's should have taught us that
excessive government intervention and regulation post-economic upheaval
leads to longer, anemic recovery periods. Why? Because instead of going
where it is called for by the economic forces, government officials
substitute their beliefs (often political) as to where the money should go.
The result is an inefficient allocation of money and thus an inefficient and
unnecessarily slower recovery, just as this has been. You can go back in
history and review the periods of slow recoveries and tie them all back to
too much managing the recovery versus a market-driven recovery. The seminal
study and book on the Great Depression clearly details this.
History lesson taught yet again, but the lesson is never really learned or
by the time we get to the next crisis, forgotten.
MARKET
A second day of pausing after a break higher Tuesday and then new highs
Wednesday on all but RUTX. Nice price break higher but volume was still
relatively anemic and breadth rather pitiful. But, there are good stocks
moving well . . .
CHARTS
NASDAQ: Led the move early on, led the indices in the new move, hitting its
new high on Tuesday, paving the way for the others on Wednesday. Decent
volume Thursday; not blowout but decent. At a new high, holding the move as
it takes what should be a quick nap if the move is going to continue.
RUTX: The only index that did not hit a new high on the week, RUTX had a
farther way to go as it undercut its 6 week range on the low. Backed off to
test the 10 day EMA on the Friday low, bounced to cut some of the loss. In
good position to make a run at the prior high after this test to mid-range
in the 6 week lateral move.
DJ30: Solid Tuesday/Wednesday move, added some Thursday. Good break to a
higher high Wednesday and Thursday, tight finish Friday. Nice break from
the range on better volume, holding the move, looking for a follow through
this week.
SOX: Unlike the other indices, SOX pushed higher Friday to a new high.
Very solid action as the semis continue as a market leader overall.
SP500: Broke to a higher closing high Wednesday, added a nice big gain
Thursday to a clear new high, closed out the week with a lateral move. Nice
break but weak volume, majorly lagging MACD.
SP400: Gapped higher Wednesday to a new high, faded to fill the gap and
test the 10 day EMA Friday. Not bad getting the gap out of the way and
holding the breakout as well. Nice break, nice test, ready to move again.
LEADERSHIP
Semiconductors: Some big moves the past two weeks. SWKS gapped and rallied
into Wednesday. MLNX, QRVO, AVGO surged on the week. XLNX has issues
Thursday on earnings but found its footing Friday. MRVL, SMTC solid weeks.
MU up on Friday and we picked up some.
FAANG: Some nice moves, e.g. FB Monday to Thursday. AAPL put in a new
recovery high into Wednesday. AMZN rallied as well, moving to the October
high Thursday. NFLX broke higher again after a modest lateral test. GOOG
announced less than great results for GOOG and it fell, but still easily
held over the 10 day EMA.
China: NTES broke higher, tested to end the week but still solid. BABA
gapped on results and rallied into Wednesday, testing Thursday and Friday.
ATHM is solid with a steady move higher up the 10 day EMA. YNDX posted a
big move into Wednesday, did a good job of holding it. SINA in a great
1-2-3 test, looking good for an entry.
Industrial Machinery: Some nice breaks higher last week, e.g. CMI, CAT. TEX
solid as well.
Oil: Holding up, some good patterns still waiting to make a move. HOS
looks good, DNR still in a good pullback.
Software: Some earnings starting to move stocks, e.g. VMW. BLKB looks
pretty good coming in toward its results. CALD looks pretty good.
Materials/Construction: MDR testing a good initial break higher. USG
testing a strong move higher. CX in a modest test of a strong surge.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -7.13 points (-0.04%) to close at 20093.78
Nasdaq
Stats: +5.61 points (+0.1%) to close at 5660.78
Volume: 1.522B (-15.46%)
Up Volume: 897.23M (+42.56M)
Down Volume: 715.6M (-232.4M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.13 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.55 to 1
New Highs: 147 (-77)
New Lows: 34 (+5)
S&P
Stats: -1.99 points (-0.09%) to close at 2294.69
NYSE Volume: 738.4M (-10.95%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.33 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.08 to 1
New Highs: 142 (-125)
New Lows: 22 (+9)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.58; -0.05
VXN: 12.3; -0.34
VXO: 9.87; +0.48
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; +0.13. Back up to 1 Friday on a bit of
protection buying after a week that saw the ratio dip into the 70's, the
lowest it has been in quite some time. Suggested not as much worry on the
week after weeks of elevated put buying.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls fell back below 60, making it 2 and 2 for the past
four weeks. It has logged the 60% level, however, and that typically
signals a move is working on its last leg before a larger correction.
Bulls: 58.2 versus 60.60
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.2 versus 60.6
60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8
versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1
versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0
versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9%
versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus
47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus
39.2
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.3
17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6
versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6
versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2%
versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7%
versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8%
versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.48% versus 2.512%. Gapped upside to the 50 day MA after
selling hard Wednesday.
Historical: 2.512% versus 2.52% versus 2.467% versus 2.40% versus 2.47%
versus 2.468% versus 2.422% versus 2.372% versus 2.393% versus 2.358% versus
2.365% versus 2.38% versus 2.962% versus 2.42% versus 2.357% versus 2.45%
versus 2.448% versus 2.42% versus 2.48% versus 2.51% versus 2.56% versus
2.54% versus 2.55% versus 2.54% versus 2.564% versus 2.544% versus 2.59%
versus 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473% versus 2.475% versus 2.471% versus
2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394% versus 2.454%
versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus 2.355% versus
2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219% versus 2.22%
versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus
1.778%
EUR/USD: 1.06957 versus 1.06843. Euro testing the 50 day MA on a four week
run.
Historical: 1.06843 versus 1.0683 versus 1.0756 versus 1.07274 versus 1.0761
versus 1.07027 versus 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450
versus 1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346
versus 105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155
versus 1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412
versus 1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459 versus 1.0415 versus 1.05094
versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586 versus 1.06140 versus 1.07745
versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601
versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066 versus 1.05910
USD/JPY: 115.094 versus 114.469
Historical: 114.469 versus 113.362 versus 113.850 versus 112.736 versus
114.39 versus 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983 versus 116.739 versus 116.456 versus
116.793 versus 117.41 versus 117.413 versus 117.32 versus 117.537 versus
117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus 117.941 versus 118.257 versus
117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus 115.20 versus 114.23 versus
113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus 113.52 versus 113.945 versus
114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus 111.835 versus 113.14 versus
112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809
Oil: 53.17, -0.61. Still, still cannot get away from the breakout point
over the 2016 highs.
Gold: 1188.40, -1.40. Excellent doji test of the 50 day SMA sets gold in
position to resume the run that started in mid-December.
MONDAY
Okay, the break higher, the test, now can the indices follow through on the
move and give another solid buy signal? Lots of activity from the Trump
administration probably keeps up its pace this week as earnings continue
flying. We can prognosticate one way or the other, but that is all just
talk. The market made a good move, is testing it, and it will show if it
can continue.
After the break higher naturally you look at plays that play a continuation
of the breakout as that is the dominant pattern.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5660.78
Resistance:
Support:
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 2016 trendline at 5500
The 50 day EMA at 5462
The 50 day SMA at 5450
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 200 day SMA at 5158
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2294.69
Resistance:
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
The 2016 trendline at 2272
The 50 day EMA at 2245
The 50 day SMA at 2245
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2156
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 20,093.78
Resistance:
Support:
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 50 day SMA at 19,628
The 50 day EMA at 19,583
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 200 day SMA at 18,502
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
January 27 - Friday
GDP Deflator, Q4 (8:30): 2.1% actual versus 2.1% expected, 1.4% prior
GDP-Adv., Q4 (8:30): 1.9% actual versus 2.2% expected, 3.5% prior
Durable Orders, December (8:30): -0.4% actual versus 3.0% expected, -4.8%
prior (revised from -4.6%)
Durable Goods -ex tr, December (8:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.5% expected,
1.0% prior (revised from 0.5%)
Michigan Sentiment -, January (10:00): 98.5 actual versus 98.0 expected,
98.1 prior (no revisions)
January 30 - Monday
Personal Income, December (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.0% prior
Personal Spending, December (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.2% prior
PCE Prices - Core, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Pending Home Sales, December (10:00): 1.3% expected, -2.5% prior
January 31 - Tuesday
Employment Cost Index, Q4 (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior
S&P Case Shiller Homes, November (9:00): 5.0% expected, 5.1% prior
Chicago PMI, January (9:45): 55.0 expected, 54.6 prior
Consumer Confidence, January (10:00): 112.5 expected, 113.7 prior
February 1 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 01/28 (7:00): 4.0% prior
MBA Mortgage Purchas, 01/28 (7:00): 4.0% prior
ADP Employment Change, January (8:15): 165K expected, 153K prior
ISM Index, January (10:00): 55.0 expected, 54.7 prior
Construction Spending, December (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.9% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/28 (10:30): +2.840M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, February (14:00): 0.625% expected, 0.625% prior
Auto Sales, January (14:00): 5.30M prior
Truck Sales, January (14:00): 9.25M prior
February 2 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, January (7:30): 42.4% prior
Initial Claims, 01/28 (8:30): 250K expected, 259K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/28 (8:30): 2100K prior
Productivity-Prel, Q4 (8:30): 1.0% expected, 3.1% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q4 (8:30): 1.9% expected, 0.7% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/28 (10:30): -119 bcf prior
February 3 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, January (8:30): 170K expected, 156K prior
Nonfarm Private Payr, January (8:30): 175K expected, 144K prior
Unemployment Rate, January (8:30): 4.7% expected, 4.7% prior
Avg. Hourly Earnings, January (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Average Workweek, January (8:30): 34.3 expected, 34.3 prior
Factory Orders, December (10:00): 1.4% expected, -2.4% prior
ISM Services, January (10:00): 57.0 expected, 57.2 prior
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
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Sunday, January 29, 2017
Sunday, January 22, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 1-21-17
* * * *
1/21/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: NVDA
Entry alerts: ATHM; VMC
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Inauguration in the books, Trump presidency starts, market still waiting
to see what happens.
- Earnings beats, earnings misses fairly evenly split in what is thus far a
let down season.
- PBOC lowers reserve requirements, an odd move given how it is supposedly
improving economically.
- Plenty of good stocks in good positions ready to go if they get a reason
to do so.
Inauguration day. Some thought it the greatest event ever, some thought it
was the worst event ever. The stock market gave it a lukewarm reception.
Not a thumbs down, just holding their position until investors and traders
hear more about the policies Trump puts out and with how much howling the
democrats AND republicans respond. It will also be a matter of timing, i.e.
how fast they come out. There is a lot of anticipation that the new
administration was ready to go with a plan in hand. There were some orders
regarding the ACA and word from Priebus of a government-wide freeze on
regulations. A start, but of course the market wants more and wants them
now.
SP500 7.62, 0.34%
NASDAQ 15.25, 0.28%
DJ30 94.85, 0.48%
SP400 0.49%
RUTX 0.45%
SOX 1.30%
VOLUME: NYSE +32%, NASDAQ -6%. NYSE trade jumped above average as a lot of
trades were made but on both sides of the ledger as the NYSE gains were
limited. NASDAQ volume faded from just below average as it held steady at
the 10 day EMA. Lots of undecideds on the session.
A/D: NYSE 1.8:1, NASDAQ 1.6:1.
Lost in the pageantry of the inauguration and the vandalization and criminal
mischief of the 'protests' a few blocks over, was other news. Some seemed
rather important but again, it was lost in the inaugural festivities that
some covered with delight, others covered with sneers and 'we are doomed'
tweets and comments.
China: The PBOC announced it lowered its reserve requirements for banks.
It also injected massive amounts of yuan overnight yet again. All is not
well, not well at all, in China. It is going to find out that its desperate
attempt to continue injecting money into the economy and piling stimulus
program after stimulus program in order to outrun economic rollover has not
worked. It knows the plan is not working and thus is trying other things in
order to keep the masses placated, e.g. aggressive and indeed provocative
actions in the South China Sea, talking tough against the US regarding trade
and Taiwan. Keep the people looking outside the country to assign blame as
to why things at home are not going that well. It works inside a country as
well: the republicans and democrats blame each other all the time for the
inability to accomplish anything, then go back to their constituents and say
there was nothing they could do, the other side blocked them, was being
mean, etc. Sadly, we all know THAT story. I wonder if the Chinese people
get as mad about it as we do? Hmmm.
Australia: Nothing economic, just tragic. A car plowed into a crowd,
killing four, injuring 20. Reportedly the perpetrator had ISIS-related
intentions.
Earnings: NFLX reported strong earnings Wednesday night and gapped higher,
but thus far has not made the kind of gap and surge as it did in October.
Other results are a mixed bag:
Beats: SWKS; NFLX; PG; IBM (but revenue fell for the nineteenth quarter);
GS; CAL; JPM
Misses: GE (top line); AXP (bottom line); C (TL); BAC (TL); BLK (TL); WFC
(BL, TL); CSX
Hardly the kind of reports that herald the end of the earnings recession.
Oh sure you had the bald-headed guy on CNBC, as usual, shorting and blowing
about how good the financial earnings are, etc., but they certainly are not
driving stocks higher, not even the beats. At least for now.
THE MARKET
No change outside of SOX and its 1.3% move as SWKS' earnings surged chips.
Perhaps SOX will be enough to gin up the rest of the market from its lateral
doldrums, but it could not do it with any authority Friday.
As noted Thursday, the buyers and sellers are evenly balanced as the indices
work laterally in a 6 week range. The risk outweighs the reward given the
move higher, the inability to make a new break upside, and the bullish
sentiment putting in a second week over 60% out of the past three weeks.
The 60% level has accurately capped market upside moves for the past twenty
years.
Even a breakout from the range upside is suspect. With the 60% readings the
market should have a built in governor on any further moves. Of course, if
the Trump administration strikes the right chords with its deregulation and
executive orders it could perhaps reset the lifespan of the rally and break
stocks back upside in a new run that could perhaps rival the post-election
run.
That is speculation. There are patterns good enough to do it; makes sense
given the 6 week lateral move.
Even in the event of a new breakout that occurs on news of Trump actions, I
believe the rally has to be viewed as suspect thanks to the sentiment
levels. Doesn't mean you don't participate, just that you have to
acknowledge the bullishness level as an additional risk to a new break
higher.
CHARTS
Not a lot of change, not a lot new to discuss in the 6 week lateral moves.
SOX: Gapped upside on the SWKS earnings results and guidance hike. Even
with the gap this was not a really strong move as SOX faded off the session
high, still well below the December peak. Trending higher of course, but
even with some really good earnings from a big AAPL supplier, the move was
not blowout.
DJ30: recovered from its Thursday break to a lower low in the 6 week double
toppish pattern. Strong volume on the session, but it was expiration so
volume is not that big a deal. It is holding and for now that buys it time.
NASDAQ: Tight doji Friday at the 10 day EMA as NASDAQ continued trending
upside though slowing a bit on the week as the big name NASDAQ stocks took a
breather after a good move. Mostly holding the gains, still in very good
shape to continue the trend higher.
SP500: And still in the tight lateral range for three weeks, part of the
six week lateral move. Holding the 2016 trendline though weaker MACD at the
highs. Waiting, waiting, waiting for a sign so it can move.
SP400: Very similar to the other NYSE indices, holding at the 20 day EMA in
the six week range, lighter MACD.
RUTX: Sold back to the bottom of the range on the week, holding the
November high on the Thursday lower close. Very important support level for
RUTX.
LEADERSHIP
There is software, materials, chips, some drugs, metals, chemicals,
industrials, Chinese stocks and more in some good patterns. Indeed some
materials stocks are already breaking higher. There are definitely a number
of stocks that can move if the market resumes the rally.
Financial: GS is showing a doji just over the 50 day MA's. Perhaps it is
ready to make its move. STT is at the 50 day MA's as well. C, however, has
cracked and is selling below the 50 day MA. BAC is working laterally,
holding the 20 day EMA.
China: Still solid. NTES bounced off the 10 day EMA Thursday and was up
again Friday. BIDU testing the 200 day SMA but still looks good to move.
ATHM still looks solid in its move. SOHU, SINA are starting to set up.
Semis: Some great moves we wish we had grabbed, e.g. AVGO and QRVO. But,
XLNX looks good to go. MU is setting up again, ENPH is very interesting in
the 'unknown' category. RTEC looks nice.
Metals: Still like RS. CENX is one we missed as it rips higher. AKS is at
the 50 day, SID is not bad. FCX looks solid as it comes off the 10 day EMA
tset.
Materials: Stronger. CX surging. EXP could be moving soon (earnings
1/24). USG looks very interesting.
FAANG: FB is testing that big move and could be set up for an entry this
week. AMZN is working laterally over the 10 day EMA as it tests its move.
It too could be set up for a new entry this week but those earnings are
there. AAPL trending up the 10 day EMA. NFLX held up on the earnings gap
higher but needs to show more upside authority. GOOG in its two week tight
lateral range over the 10 day EMA.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +94.85 points (+0.48%) to close at 19827.25
Nasdaq
Stats: +15.25 points (+0.28%) to close at 5555.33
Volume: 1.975B (-5.89%)
Up Volume: 963.26M (+343.38M)
Down Volume: 684.46M (-485.54M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.58 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.52 to 1
New Highs: 104 (+12)
New Lows: 39 (-1)
S&P
Stats: +7.62 points (+0.34%) to close at 2271.31
NYSE Volume: 1B (+32.42%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.77 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.89 to 1
New Highs: 95 (+11)
New Lows: 19 (-1)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.54; -1.24
VXN: 13.04; -1.02
VXO: 10.5; -1.11
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; +0.06. Back to 1 after never backing much out
of the 0.90's. Still a rather high level of apprehension/protection buying.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls popped right back up from the one-week dip, posting
the second 60+ close in 3 weeks. Bears, fell back below 17. Showing some
stickiness at the 60+ level
Bulls: 60.60 versus 58.6
Bears: 17.3 versus 18.4
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 60.6 versus 58.6
58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3
versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5
versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9%
versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus
45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 17.3 versus 18.3
18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3
versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8
versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6%
versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus
23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6%
versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9%
versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.47% versus 2.468%. TLT rallied to the 50 day MA's and
has backed down from there, falling back below them.
Historical: 2.468% versus 2.422% versus 2.372% versus 2.393% versus 2.358%
versus 2.365% versus 2.38% versus 2.962% versus 2.42% versus 2.357% versus
2.45% versus 2.448% versus 2.42% versus 2.48% versus 2.51% versus 2.56%
versus 2.54% versus 2.55% versus 2.54% versus 2.564% versus 2.544% versus
2.59% versus 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473% versus 2.475% versus 2.471%
versus 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394% versus
2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus 2.355%
versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219% versus
2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83%
versus 1.778%
EUR/USD: 1.07027 versus 1.06394
Historical: 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450 versus
1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346 versus
105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155 versus
1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus
1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459 versus 1.0415 versus 1.05094 versus
1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586 versus 1.06140 versus 1.07745 versus
1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus
1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066 versus 1.05910
USD/JPY: 114.390 versus 114.686. Hugging the 50 day EMA.
Historical: 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983 versus 116.739 versus 116.456 versus
116.793 versus 117.41 versus 117.413 versus 117.32 versus 117.537 versus
117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus 117.941 versus 118.257 versus
117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus 115.20 versus 114.23 versus
113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus 113.52 versus 113.945 versus
114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus 111.835 versus 113.14 versus
112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809
Oil: 53.22, +1.10. Oil has found some footing at the 52 level, managing to
hold but thus far unable to extend the move. Kind of waiting and watching as
are the other markets.
Gold: 1204.90, +3.40. Gold broke through the 50 day MA's Tuesday then
stumbled, giving the move back but managing to close over the 50 day EMA
Friday. Some impressive stamina.
MONDAY
The market indices are in position (perhaps not DJ30, RUTX), many stocks are
in position, but thus far the market cannot find the bids to send stocks
higher again. Trump is in, some executive orders are signed about the ACA,
the National Parks Service lost its Twitter privileges after many of its
'public servants' sent critical tweets about the inauguration. Many will
likely lose their jobs. There is some 'settling out' to take place for
sure.
Looking to 2017 and beyond I feel there could be a significant
reorganization of alliances in the world. Could it be that Russia and the
US have better relations than the US and those countries remaining in the
EU? To that point, many of the smaller economies are asking the question
'why are we in this union?' How about Israel and Iran? Israel is making
overtures to Iran. If Russia's Putin and Trump forge a relationship, where
does that leave China? It could be very interesting, this time perhaps for
China (that old Chinese curse).
Okay, that is all conjecture about the future. What about those executive
orders? Conway says Trump may stop enforcing the ACA's individual mandate.
Speculation as to the first executive orders is not that drastic, not that
cutting. Thus . . . what will propel markets waiting on some real policies
to give the new buy signal?
But that works. You want to see these good setups break higher and not
massively gap upside. As noted many times, there are very good stocks in
very good position to move higher, they just need something to spring them.
Anything can happen in this environment that is scanning headlines to decide
when to move and where to go.
Earnings are flying in now, but thus far they are impacting individual
stocks, not the market overall. After a couple of weeks of results,
however, the direction tends to readjust. With the indices working
laterally it could be that the results finally give a reason to buy. If
they make the moves then we will be buying some, at the same time fully
aware of the 2 out of 3 weeks of sentiment readings over 60% and how that is
ultimately a governor on the rally.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5555.33
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 5480
The 50 day EMA at 5425
The 50 day SMA at 5410
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 200 day SMA at 5139
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2271.31
Resistance:
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2262
The 50 day EMA at 2236
The 50 day SMA at 2233
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2150
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,827.25
Resistance:
19,987.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 50 day SMA at 19,497
The 50 day EMA at 19,491
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 200 day SMA at 18,443
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
January 24 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, December (10:00): 5.55M expected, 5.61M prior
January 25 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 01/21 (7:00): 0.8% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, November (9:00): 0.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/21 (10:30): +2.300M prior
January 26 - Thursday
Adv. International T, December (8:30): -$65.0M expected, -$65.3B prior
Initial Claims, 01/21 (8:30): 246K expected, 234K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/21 (8:30): 2046K prior
Leading Indicators, December (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.0% prior
New Home Sales, December (10:00): 589K expected, 592K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/21 (10:30): -243 bcf prior
January 27 - Friday
GDP Deflator, Q4 (8:30): 2.1% expected, 1.4% prior
GDP-Adv., Q4 (8:30): 2.2% expected, 3.5% prior
Durable Orders, December (8:30): 3.0% expected, -4.6% prior
Durable Goods -ex tr, December (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior
Michigan Sentiment -, January (10:00): 98.0 expected, 98.1 prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
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MARKET SUMMARY
- Inauguration in the books, Trump presidency starts, market still waiting
to see what happens.
- Earnings beats, earnings misses fairly evenly split in what is thus far a
let down season.
- PBOC lowers reserve requirements, an odd move given how it is supposedly
improving economically.
- Plenty of good stocks in good positions ready to go if they get a reason
to do so.
Inauguration day. Some thought it the greatest event ever, some thought it
was the worst event ever. The stock market gave it a lukewarm reception.
Not a thumbs down, just holding their position until investors and traders
hear more about the policies Trump puts out and with how much howling the
democrats AND republicans respond. It will also be a matter of timing, i.e.
how fast they come out. There is a lot of anticipation that the new
administration was ready to go with a plan in hand. There were some orders
regarding the ACA and word from Priebus of a government-wide freeze on
regulations. A start, but of course the market wants more and wants them
now.
SP500 7.62, 0.34%
NASDAQ 15.25, 0.28%
DJ30 94.85, 0.48%
SP400 0.49%
RUTX 0.45%
SOX 1.30%
VOLUME: NYSE +32%, NASDAQ -6%. NYSE trade jumped above average as a lot of
trades were made but on both sides of the ledger as the NYSE gains were
limited. NASDAQ volume faded from just below average as it held steady at
the 10 day EMA. Lots of undecideds on the session.
A/D: NYSE 1.8:1, NASDAQ 1.6:1.
Lost in the pageantry of the inauguration and the vandalization and criminal
mischief of the 'protests' a few blocks over, was other news. Some seemed
rather important but again, it was lost in the inaugural festivities that
some covered with delight, others covered with sneers and 'we are doomed'
tweets and comments.
China: The PBOC announced it lowered its reserve requirements for banks.
It also injected massive amounts of yuan overnight yet again. All is not
well, not well at all, in China. It is going to find out that its desperate
attempt to continue injecting money into the economy and piling stimulus
program after stimulus program in order to outrun economic rollover has not
worked. It knows the plan is not working and thus is trying other things in
order to keep the masses placated, e.g. aggressive and indeed provocative
actions in the South China Sea, talking tough against the US regarding trade
and Taiwan. Keep the people looking outside the country to assign blame as
to why things at home are not going that well. It works inside a country as
well: the republicans and democrats blame each other all the time for the
inability to accomplish anything, then go back to their constituents and say
there was nothing they could do, the other side blocked them, was being
mean, etc. Sadly, we all know THAT story. I wonder if the Chinese people
get as mad about it as we do? Hmmm.
Australia: Nothing economic, just tragic. A car plowed into a crowd,
killing four, injuring 20. Reportedly the perpetrator had ISIS-related
intentions.
Earnings: NFLX reported strong earnings Wednesday night and gapped higher,
but thus far has not made the kind of gap and surge as it did in October.
Other results are a mixed bag:
Beats: SWKS; NFLX; PG; IBM (but revenue fell for the nineteenth quarter);
GS; CAL; JPM
Misses: GE (top line); AXP (bottom line); C (TL); BAC (TL); BLK (TL); WFC
(BL, TL); CSX
Hardly the kind of reports that herald the end of the earnings recession.
Oh sure you had the bald-headed guy on CNBC, as usual, shorting and blowing
about how good the financial earnings are, etc., but they certainly are not
driving stocks higher, not even the beats. At least for now.
THE MARKET
No change outside of SOX and its 1.3% move as SWKS' earnings surged chips.
Perhaps SOX will be enough to gin up the rest of the market from its lateral
doldrums, but it could not do it with any authority Friday.
As noted Thursday, the buyers and sellers are evenly balanced as the indices
work laterally in a 6 week range. The risk outweighs the reward given the
move higher, the inability to make a new break upside, and the bullish
sentiment putting in a second week over 60% out of the past three weeks.
The 60% level has accurately capped market upside moves for the past twenty
years.
Even a breakout from the range upside is suspect. With the 60% readings the
market should have a built in governor on any further moves. Of course, if
the Trump administration strikes the right chords with its deregulation and
executive orders it could perhaps reset the lifespan of the rally and break
stocks back upside in a new run that could perhaps rival the post-election
run.
That is speculation. There are patterns good enough to do it; makes sense
given the 6 week lateral move.
Even in the event of a new breakout that occurs on news of Trump actions, I
believe the rally has to be viewed as suspect thanks to the sentiment
levels. Doesn't mean you don't participate, just that you have to
acknowledge the bullishness level as an additional risk to a new break
higher.
CHARTS
Not a lot of change, not a lot new to discuss in the 6 week lateral moves.
SOX: Gapped upside on the SWKS earnings results and guidance hike. Even
with the gap this was not a really strong move as SOX faded off the session
high, still well below the December peak. Trending higher of course, but
even with some really good earnings from a big AAPL supplier, the move was
not blowout.
DJ30: recovered from its Thursday break to a lower low in the 6 week double
toppish pattern. Strong volume on the session, but it was expiration so
volume is not that big a deal. It is holding and for now that buys it time.
NASDAQ: Tight doji Friday at the 10 day EMA as NASDAQ continued trending
upside though slowing a bit on the week as the big name NASDAQ stocks took a
breather after a good move. Mostly holding the gains, still in very good
shape to continue the trend higher.
SP500: And still in the tight lateral range for three weeks, part of the
six week lateral move. Holding the 2016 trendline though weaker MACD at the
highs. Waiting, waiting, waiting for a sign so it can move.
SP400: Very similar to the other NYSE indices, holding at the 20 day EMA in
the six week range, lighter MACD.
RUTX: Sold back to the bottom of the range on the week, holding the
November high on the Thursday lower close. Very important support level for
RUTX.
LEADERSHIP
There is software, materials, chips, some drugs, metals, chemicals,
industrials, Chinese stocks and more in some good patterns. Indeed some
materials stocks are already breaking higher. There are definitely a number
of stocks that can move if the market resumes the rally.
Financial: GS is showing a doji just over the 50 day MA's. Perhaps it is
ready to make its move. STT is at the 50 day MA's as well. C, however, has
cracked and is selling below the 50 day MA. BAC is working laterally,
holding the 20 day EMA.
China: Still solid. NTES bounced off the 10 day EMA Thursday and was up
again Friday. BIDU testing the 200 day SMA but still looks good to move.
ATHM still looks solid in its move. SOHU, SINA are starting to set up.
Semis: Some great moves we wish we had grabbed, e.g. AVGO and QRVO. But,
XLNX looks good to go. MU is setting up again, ENPH is very interesting in
the 'unknown' category. RTEC looks nice.
Metals: Still like RS. CENX is one we missed as it rips higher. AKS is at
the 50 day, SID is not bad. FCX looks solid as it comes off the 10 day EMA
tset.
Materials: Stronger. CX surging. EXP could be moving soon (earnings
1/24). USG looks very interesting.
FAANG: FB is testing that big move and could be set up for an entry this
week. AMZN is working laterally over the 10 day EMA as it tests its move.
It too could be set up for a new entry this week but those earnings are
there. AAPL trending up the 10 day EMA. NFLX held up on the earnings gap
higher but needs to show more upside authority. GOOG in its two week tight
lateral range over the 10 day EMA.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +94.85 points (+0.48%) to close at 19827.25
Nasdaq
Stats: +15.25 points (+0.28%) to close at 5555.33
Volume: 1.975B (-5.89%)
Up Volume: 963.26M (+343.38M)
Down Volume: 684.46M (-485.54M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.58 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.52 to 1
New Highs: 104 (+12)
New Lows: 39 (-1)
S&P
Stats: +7.62 points (+0.34%) to close at 2271.31
NYSE Volume: 1B (+32.42%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.77 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.89 to 1
New Highs: 95 (+11)
New Lows: 19 (-1)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.54; -1.24
VXN: 13.04; -1.02
VXO: 10.5; -1.11
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; +0.06. Back to 1 after never backing much out
of the 0.90's. Still a rather high level of apprehension/protection buying.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls popped right back up from the one-week dip, posting
the second 60+ close in 3 weeks. Bears, fell back below 17. Showing some
stickiness at the 60+ level
Bulls: 60.60 versus 58.6
Bears: 17.3 versus 18.4
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 60.6 versus 58.6
58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3
versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5
versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9%
versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus
45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 17.3 versus 18.3
18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3
versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8
versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6%
versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus
23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6%
versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9%
versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.47% versus 2.468%. TLT rallied to the 50 day MA's and
has backed down from there, falling back below them.
Historical: 2.468% versus 2.422% versus 2.372% versus 2.393% versus 2.358%
versus 2.365% versus 2.38% versus 2.962% versus 2.42% versus 2.357% versus
2.45% versus 2.448% versus 2.42% versus 2.48% versus 2.51% versus 2.56%
versus 2.54% versus 2.55% versus 2.54% versus 2.564% versus 2.544% versus
2.59% versus 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473% versus 2.475% versus 2.471%
versus 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394% versus
2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus 2.355%
versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219% versus
2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83%
versus 1.778%
EUR/USD: 1.07027 versus 1.06394
Historical: 1.06394 versus 1.06381 versus 1.07114 versus 1.06450 versus
1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346 versus
105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155 versus
1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus
1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459 versus 1.0415 versus 1.05094 versus
1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586 versus 1.06140 versus 1.07745 versus
1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus
1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066 versus 1.05910
USD/JPY: 114.390 versus 114.686. Hugging the 50 day EMA.
Historical: 114.686 versus 114.538 versus 112.774 versus 114.473 versus
114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus 116.923 versus
115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983 versus 116.739 versus 116.456 versus
116.793 versus 117.41 versus 117.413 versus 117.32 versus 117.537 versus
117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus 117.941 versus 118.257 versus
117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus 115.20 versus 114.23 versus
113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus 113.52 versus 113.945 versus
114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus 111.835 versus 113.14 versus
112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809
Oil: 53.22, +1.10. Oil has found some footing at the 52 level, managing to
hold but thus far unable to extend the move. Kind of waiting and watching as
are the other markets.
Gold: 1204.90, +3.40. Gold broke through the 50 day MA's Tuesday then
stumbled, giving the move back but managing to close over the 50 day EMA
Friday. Some impressive stamina.
MONDAY
The market indices are in position (perhaps not DJ30, RUTX), many stocks are
in position, but thus far the market cannot find the bids to send stocks
higher again. Trump is in, some executive orders are signed about the ACA,
the National Parks Service lost its Twitter privileges after many of its
'public servants' sent critical tweets about the inauguration. Many will
likely lose their jobs. There is some 'settling out' to take place for
sure.
Looking to 2017 and beyond I feel there could be a significant
reorganization of alliances in the world. Could it be that Russia and the
US have better relations than the US and those countries remaining in the
EU? To that point, many of the smaller economies are asking the question
'why are we in this union?' How about Israel and Iran? Israel is making
overtures to Iran. If Russia's Putin and Trump forge a relationship, where
does that leave China? It could be very interesting, this time perhaps for
China (that old Chinese curse).
Okay, that is all conjecture about the future. What about those executive
orders? Conway says Trump may stop enforcing the ACA's individual mandate.
Speculation as to the first executive orders is not that drastic, not that
cutting. Thus . . . what will propel markets waiting on some real policies
to give the new buy signal?
But that works. You want to see these good setups break higher and not
massively gap upside. As noted many times, there are very good stocks in
very good position to move higher, they just need something to spring them.
Anything can happen in this environment that is scanning headlines to decide
when to move and where to go.
Earnings are flying in now, but thus far they are impacting individual
stocks, not the market overall. After a couple of weeks of results,
however, the direction tends to readjust. With the indices working
laterally it could be that the results finally give a reason to buy. If
they make the moves then we will be buying some, at the same time fully
aware of the 2 out of 3 weeks of sentiment readings over 60% and how that is
ultimately a governor on the rally.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5555.33
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 5480
The 50 day EMA at 5425
The 50 day SMA at 5410
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 200 day SMA at 5139
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2271.31
Resistance:
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2262
The 50 day EMA at 2236
The 50 day SMA at 2233
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2150
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,827.25
Resistance:
19,987.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 50 day SMA at 19,497
The 50 day EMA at 19,491
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 200 day SMA at 18,443
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
January 24 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, December (10:00): 5.55M expected, 5.61M prior
January 25 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 01/21 (7:00): 0.8% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, November (9:00): 0.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/21 (10:30): +2.300M prior
January 26 - Thursday
Adv. International T, December (8:30): -$65.0M expected, -$65.3B prior
Initial Claims, 01/21 (8:30): 246K expected, 234K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/21 (8:30): 2046K prior
Leading Indicators, December (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.0% prior
New Home Sales, December (10:00): 589K expected, 592K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/21 (10:30): -243 bcf prior
January 27 - Friday
GDP Deflator, Q4 (8:30): 2.1% expected, 1.4% prior
GDP-Adv., Q4 (8:30): 2.2% expected, 3.5% prior
Durable Orders, December (8:30): 3.0% expected, -4.6% prior
Durable Goods -ex tr, December (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior
Michigan Sentiment -, January (10:00): 98.0 expected, 98.1 prior
End part 1 of 3
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Sunday, January 15, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 1/14/16
* * * *
1/14/2017 Investment House Daily
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Despite a flurry of financial earnings, status quo remains as NASDAQ leads
the market.
- Status quo perhaps, but signs the buyers are still there even after the
lateral tedium.
- December Retail sales rally 0.6% headline, but without autos and the
gasoline that goes in them, sales were flat.
- Fake news weary: so many headlines, so many conflicting stories, a sort of
'had enough' numbing in the markets. That may not be such a bad thing.
- Retail sales disappoint huge.
- Many early rally leaders are holding up but not yet moving while
Semiconductors show some renewal and more stocks from many areas improve
their patterns. Hope for a continued rally after all.
- Market waiting on the inauguration?
Friday the status quo continued: NASDAQ moved to a new high, DJ30 missed
out, while SP500, SP400, RUTX, and SOX traded in their ranges just below
their highs.
SP500 4.2, 0.18%
NASDAQ 26.63, 0.48%
DJ30 -5.27, -0.03%
SP400 0.54%
RUTX 0.81%
SOX 0.71%
VOLUME: NYSE -6%, NASDAQ -11%. Volume was 3-day holiday light as the
indices mostly posted gains. Not much of an indication other than the
continued bullish bias in the absence of any other catalyst.
A/D: NYSE +1.7:1; NASDAQ 2.3:1.
It is getting tedious, the lateral range bound move just below the prior
highs. Outside, of course, NASDAQ. We are playing some of those FAANG and
other NASDAQ stocks higher, but for most of the market the pullback remains.
Friday showed some signs of life, and Thursday as well. First, you had a
selloff on Thursday that took the small and midcaps lower, SP500 as well.
The small and midcaps tapped the bottom of their 5-6 week ranges. Then the
bids returned and bounced stocks right back up to the upper part of the
range. After 5+ weeks of plodding laterally in lethargy, buyers still
showed up to buy when the market sold to the bottom of the range. That
shows the buyers are still ahead at this time, even after the sleepwalk.
Second, there were some interesting moves from leaders and wannabes.
Transports started to rise off their tests. Some semiconductor leaders
started to struggle on the week, but late week several improved their
outlook. Other areas, several areas, not necessarily in the leadership that
led the post-election move, have put together some pretty interesting
patterns. China stocks started to move nicely along with some biotech.
Gold stocks and other downtrodden and forgotten stocks are trying to turn
the corner. Money many be slowly accumulating during the 5 week range given
the look of some of these patterns. That is good given other areas such as
oil had looked so good but started to have issues the back half of the week.
Thus I am looking at the new week with just a bit of optimism for the
upside. It is still a Missouri 'show me' market, meaning the stocks have to
show the breakouts and make them stick. The plays for the weekend are a
rather eclectic mix, leaning toward the semiconductors but also representing
telecom, China, metals, software. If they make the breaks, that shows the
market rally has some broader support versus the very narrow move of NASDAQ
the past two weeks while everything else was stymied in a lateral range.
Friday we picked up some CAVM in chips and some more NFLX as it broke
higher. Closed PDS as it broke lower. The oil-related stocks are on the
bubble in several cases as we enter the new week. If other areas we noted
perform, it will be instructive if oil and other early move leaders hold
their gains or are sold. Rotation is good for a rally, but the better type
of rotation is that where sectors pause while others move higher, then
return to rallying when the money rotates again. Many sectors have held
their ground the past 5 weeks, so that is encouraging. Now we see if they
rally with the new promising areas -- IF the rally does indeed resume.
MARKET
The range to nowhere continues but some of the indices show signs of buying
still, and good individual stock setups supports the idea buyers still want
to push higher. At the same time, DJ30 is still churning on high volume.
NASDAQ's move is almost frighteningly narrow though it got a bit broader
Friday. Getting to the point where you would expect to see the range make a
move, but look back at September to early November: range-bound for 8 weeks
and that was after 7 weeks just ahead of it. The only thing to do in this
situation is keep alert, keep positions neat and trim, keep a watch on
leaders and potentially up and coming sectors, and be ready to act of they
break higher out of a range as in early November.
CHARTS
NASDAQ: Another all-time high as NASDAQ is the most recent darling as the
FAANG and a few other big name tech stocks rally. FB, AMZN, NFLX rallied
while AAPL, GOOG took a personal day. That was enough to post half percent
gains for the tech index.
RUTX: Biggest gainer on the Friday session but that leaves RUTX still
solidly entrenched in its 5 week lateral range along the 20 day EMA. Sold
to the bottom of the range on the week, tested deep Thursday and undercut
it, but recovered. It is holding and started to rebound. Now will it
continue and then make a break?
SP400: Very similar to RUTX and SP500, the midcaps are in a sixth week of
consolidation in a 40 point range from 1660 to 1700, bumping at a new high.
Currently in the upper half of the range. MACD is lower. What does it
mean? For now the upside momentum has waned but there are no real sellers.
Indeed as with RUTX, it was sold Thursday and fell to the bottom of the
range just to be bought. That shows you there are still buyers ready to move
in even after 6 weeks of lethargy.
SP500: Tested lower Thursday, rebounded back to the top half of the 5 week
range. Friday a modest bounce tapped the top of the range, faded slightly.
So, the large caps are at the top of the range on lower MACD. Yes, momentum
has slowed but the buyers are still ready, at this point, to pick up stocks
on a dip. The next logical question are they gaining strength such that
they can push a breakout?
DJ30: Very similar action, now 5 weeks into a rather tight lateral range
with a bottom at 19,750 and a top at . . . just below 20K. MACD still
dropping suggesting waning momentum -- but that can be deceiving in these
lateral moves. If there is a second high that is on lower MACD, that is a
more negative indication. If it elongates like we are seeing, not so much.
There is that high volume taking it to nowhere, and that is churn, an
indication of unloading stocks. That makes this a bit inconsistent with the
other indices as it is more an indication the move is running out of gas,
being undermined as sellers sell as fast as buyers are buying, unloading a
lot of stock.
SOX: Bounced off the 20 day EMA last week, but failed to really make a
serious move. SOX posted a higher high three weeks back but MACD did not;
that is a more accurate sign of waning momentum than as on DJ30 as noted
above. It looked as if chips were in trouble, but many key names held on
just find, others recovered, and still others made upside moves. SOX is an
important indicator, and if that downside move was just a head fakes -- as
many of the moves suggest -- that is a positive for the overall market.
LEADERSHIP
Semiconductors: Some good moves on the week, some good recoveries. QRVO
came out of the bottom of its range to surge, MXL came to life, and LRCX
broke to a higher high Friday. AMAT continues as a leader. MU is hanging
in, SMTC, SLAB look quite solid. Not all is candy and nuts; AMD is still
fading, XLNX is challenged to hang on.
FAANG: FB again rallied and NFLX made a new break higher. AMZN put in a
Friday gain on top of a strong week. GOOG, AAPL rested.
Big tech: Holding on in most cases, e.g. MSFT in its narrow range, while
others such as JNPR struggled.
China: Still looks solid. YNDX in a nice 10 day EMA test of its prior
move. NTES in a great little pullback. BABA is very similar as is BIDU.
Transports: Could be starting the rebound. CSX continues as it has already
made its move, but others could be starting. Trucking is moving, e.g. SAIA,
ODFL breaking higher Friday. Airlines, not so much yet.
Financial: Lots of earnings hit and at least they avoided selling off. Sure
the bald headed guy on CNBC was touting the results, but BAC, BLK, WFC
missed on their metrics. Again, however, they did not fall so we will see if
they can resume the higher out of their flat lateral ranges.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +26.63 points (+0.48%) to close at 5574.12
Volume: 1.805B (-11.42%)
Up Volume: 999.11M (+324.45M)
Down Volume: 588.04M (-481.96M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.34 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.93 to 1
New Highs: 153 (+65)
New Lows: 19 (-6)
S&P
Stats: +4.2 points (+0.18%) to close at 2274.64
NYSE Volume: 754.3M (-5.56%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.67 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.5 to 1
New Highs: 128 (+44)
New Lows: 10 (-7)
DJ30
Stats: -5.27 points (-0.03%) to close at 19885.73
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.23; -0.31
VXN: 13.34; -0.52
VXO: 10.62; -0.42
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.15
After a day back over 1.0 on the Thursday intraday selling the ratio fell,
but still is high overall, indicating still plenty of put protection buying
as the market moves laterally. At this juncture, that is starting to look
as a positive as the funds are still worried about selling enough to
continue buying protection.
Bulls and Bears: Well, back down and quite a drop in bulls, moving below 60
and below the prior week's 59.8 reading. Typically, however, the damage has
been done once 60 is broached.
Bulls: 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8
Bears: 18.4 versus 18.4 versus 19.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.6 versus 60.2
60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9
versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4%
versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus
47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 18.3 versus 18.4
18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6
versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6
Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3%
versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus
20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8%
versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.393% versus 2.358%
Historical: 2.358% versus 2.365% versus 2.38% versus 2.962% versus 2.42%
versus 2.357% versus 2.45% versus 2.448% versus 2.42% versus 2.48% versus
2.51% versus 2.56% versus 2.54% versus 2.55% versus 2.54% versus 2.564%
versus 2.544% versus 2.59% versus 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473% versus
2.475% versus 2.471% versus 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396%
versus 2.394% versus 2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus
2.36% versus 2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297%
versus 2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus
1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778%
Dollar: Landed on the 50 day MA's last week as other countries intervened
to support their currencies. They cannot keep that up forever, the US looks
stronger and with the Trump growth policies planned it will likely be
stronger. Thus the dollar is well-positioned to bounce.
EUR/USD: 1.06450 versus 1.0624
Historical: 1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346
versus 105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155
versus 1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412
versus 1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459 versus 1.0415 versus 1.05094
versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586 versus 1.06140 versus 1.07745
versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601
versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066 versus 1.05910
USD/JPY: 114.473 versus 114.57
Historical: 114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus
116.923 versus 115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983 versus 116.739 versus
116.456 versus 116.793 versus 117.41 versus 117.413 versus 117.32 versus
117.537 versus 117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus 117.941 versus
118.257 versus 117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus 115.20 versus
114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus 113.52 versus
113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus 111.835 versus
113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809
Oil: 52.37, -0.64. Oil dropped like a rock Monday and Tuesday, held the 50
day EMA and rebounded. Friday was a bit weak but oil held just over the
breakout point that is, after so many back and forth moves, somewhat porous.
Gold: 1196.20, -3.60. Showed a Friday doji after clearing the 50 day MA's
midweek. Not bad action but gold has not proved it can sustain the 3 week
rally and hold a break over the 50 day MA's. Those stopped it in September
and again in early November when it tried to recover.
TUESDAY
NASDAQ leads but the move is extremely narrow, the other indices locked in
5+ week ranges, unable to push higher. The tedium is here for certain as
the market watches the upcoming inauguration as well as all of the issues
swirling that have little to do with what is actually going to happen once
the new administration begins.
We hear China blustering about the US had better prepare for military action
if the US won't adhere to the 'one China' fiction. The factually bereft
rumor mill about the Russian connection, trade protectionism, and on and on.
All speculation and it is as if the market has said 'enough, I am going to
wait until the inauguration.' Often it is not the results of the event but
the start that is enough for the market. Ahead of the Iraq war the market
was at a standstill, but when the 'shock and awe' bombs started to fly, so
did the market. Sometimes it is not upside, but the point is if the market
idles during a swirl of stories and confusion, it will likely make its move
when the event finally begins. Oh yes, and don't forget earnings just
getting started.
As for the China comments, you can tell China has done its homework on The
Donald, throwing out its extreme negotiating point in the first salvo just
as outlined in Trump's 'The Art of the Deal.' Anyone who thinks China is
serious or is hand-wringing over what Trump says, you should go read that
book as well. You don't have to buy it if you don't want Trump to get any
royalties; just borrow it. Indeed, I think the country would have been much
more at ease in the election process if everyone actually knew something
about the candidates other than what the news reports. Most everyone in the
primaries and certainly the final two candidates have books out and you can
tell a lot about a person by not only what they write in a book but what
they include and don't include. But alas, the majority of the citizenry
gets its 'information' from headline snippets and 30 second stories that
barely get the headline out before they get the cue to move onto the next
non-story. But, I digress.
So, it makes sense with all of the speculation and supposition versus facts
in the news that the market is idling laterally. We have tightened up our
positions in anticipation of the triggering moment, at the same time still
picking up positions that look good, and having a lot of good looking plays
from many sectors at the ready for when the move occurs.
Now we see which way the market will break. Earnings might provide a
catalyst, but Friday they certainly were not for the financials. Beat or
miss they were status quo. While earnings will no doubt move individual
stocks, it may indeed be the inauguration that moves stocks as a whole,
getting the certainty of at least getting to the point some of the plans can
actually be executed.
What about the current economic data? Well, as usual, the feds love to
paint the data with glowing commentary, but also as usual, the facts don't
support it. Friday the December retail sales were issues, and the headline
at 0.6% looked good enough compared to the 0.2% in November.
Of course the details were bedeviling. If you take out autos and gasoline
sales as is always done by most serious economists, you get a 0.0% gain when
a 0.4% gain was expected! Outside of auto sales that were at a record pace
and now are expected to drop off, and gasoline prices that made up the bulk
of the December increase, you had NO increase in spending in December.
Recall there was supposed to be a late surge of buying after a weak
November. Did not happen. Much room for the new Administration to improve
despite the feverish legacy building ongoing right now.
So, with the sellers rarely showing any strength and the buyers returning on
each test of the range lows, we are still looking upside in terms of new
plays, but it is also still a 'show me' move upside as discussed before.
With the inauguration on Friday, it could still be another week of range
trading, but we are already seeing some stocks get out in front of a move.
As on Friday, we will get out there with them if they can hold the gains.
Have a great weekend and Martin Luther King Day!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5574.12
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 5458
The November prior all-time high at 5404
The 50 day EMA at 5404
The 50 day SMA at 5373
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 200 day SMA at 5126
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2274.64
Resistance:
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2255
The 50 day EMA at 2230
The 50 day SMA at 2219
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2146
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,885.73
Resistance:
19,987.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 20 day EMA 19,816
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 50 day EMA at 19,437
The 50 day SMA at 19,355
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 200 day SMA at 18,402
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
January 13 - Friday
PPI, December (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior (no
revisions)
Core PPI, December (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior (no
revisions)
Retail Sales, December (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.7% expected, 0.2% prior
(revised from 0.1%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, December (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.6% expected,
0.3% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Business Inventories, November (10:00): 0.7% actual versus 0.6%
expected, -0.1% prior (revised from -0.2%)
Michigan Sentiment - Pre, January (10:00): 98.1 actual versus 98.5 expected,
98.2 prior (no revisions)
January 17 - Tuesday
Empire Manufacturing, January (8:30): 8.3 expected, 9.0 prior
January 18 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applications, 01/14 (7:00)
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/14 (7:00): 5.8% prior
CPI, December (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Core CPI, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Industrial Production, December (9:15): 0.6% expected, -0.4% prior
Capacity Utilization, December (9:15): 75.4% expected, 75.0% prior
NAHB Housing Market , January (10:00): 70 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Flows, January (16:00): $9.4B prior
January 19 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/14 (8:30): 252K expected, 247K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/07 (8:30): 2087K prior
Housing Starts, December (8:30): 1193K expected, 1090K prior
Building Permits, December (8:30): 1217K expected, 1201K prior
Philadelphia Fed, January (8:30): 15.3 expected, 21.5 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/14 (10:30): -151 bcf prior
Crude Inventories, 01/13 (11:00): +4.100M prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Despite a flurry of financial earnings, status quo remains as NASDAQ leads
the market.
- Status quo perhaps, but signs the buyers are still there even after the
lateral tedium.
- December Retail sales rally 0.6% headline, but without autos and the
gasoline that goes in them, sales were flat.
- Fake news weary: so many headlines, so many conflicting stories, a sort of
'had enough' numbing in the markets. That may not be such a bad thing.
- Retail sales disappoint huge.
- Many early rally leaders are holding up but not yet moving while
Semiconductors show some renewal and more stocks from many areas improve
their patterns. Hope for a continued rally after all.
- Market waiting on the inauguration?
Friday the status quo continued: NASDAQ moved to a new high, DJ30 missed
out, while SP500, SP400, RUTX, and SOX traded in their ranges just below
their highs.
SP500 4.2, 0.18%
NASDAQ 26.63, 0.48%
DJ30 -5.27, -0.03%
SP400 0.54%
RUTX 0.81%
SOX 0.71%
VOLUME: NYSE -6%, NASDAQ -11%. Volume was 3-day holiday light as the
indices mostly posted gains. Not much of an indication other than the
continued bullish bias in the absence of any other catalyst.
A/D: NYSE +1.7:1; NASDAQ 2.3:1.
It is getting tedious, the lateral range bound move just below the prior
highs. Outside, of course, NASDAQ. We are playing some of those FAANG and
other NASDAQ stocks higher, but for most of the market the pullback remains.
Friday showed some signs of life, and Thursday as well. First, you had a
selloff on Thursday that took the small and midcaps lower, SP500 as well.
The small and midcaps tapped the bottom of their 5-6 week ranges. Then the
bids returned and bounced stocks right back up to the upper part of the
range. After 5+ weeks of plodding laterally in lethargy, buyers still
showed up to buy when the market sold to the bottom of the range. That
shows the buyers are still ahead at this time, even after the sleepwalk.
Second, there were some interesting moves from leaders and wannabes.
Transports started to rise off their tests. Some semiconductor leaders
started to struggle on the week, but late week several improved their
outlook. Other areas, several areas, not necessarily in the leadership that
led the post-election move, have put together some pretty interesting
patterns. China stocks started to move nicely along with some biotech.
Gold stocks and other downtrodden and forgotten stocks are trying to turn
the corner. Money many be slowly accumulating during the 5 week range given
the look of some of these patterns. That is good given other areas such as
oil had looked so good but started to have issues the back half of the week.
Thus I am looking at the new week with just a bit of optimism for the
upside. It is still a Missouri 'show me' market, meaning the stocks have to
show the breakouts and make them stick. The plays for the weekend are a
rather eclectic mix, leaning toward the semiconductors but also representing
telecom, China, metals, software. If they make the breaks, that shows the
market rally has some broader support versus the very narrow move of NASDAQ
the past two weeks while everything else was stymied in a lateral range.
Friday we picked up some CAVM in chips and some more NFLX as it broke
higher. Closed PDS as it broke lower. The oil-related stocks are on the
bubble in several cases as we enter the new week. If other areas we noted
perform, it will be instructive if oil and other early move leaders hold
their gains or are sold. Rotation is good for a rally, but the better type
of rotation is that where sectors pause while others move higher, then
return to rallying when the money rotates again. Many sectors have held
their ground the past 5 weeks, so that is encouraging. Now we see if they
rally with the new promising areas -- IF the rally does indeed resume.
MARKET
The range to nowhere continues but some of the indices show signs of buying
still, and good individual stock setups supports the idea buyers still want
to push higher. At the same time, DJ30 is still churning on high volume.
NASDAQ's move is almost frighteningly narrow though it got a bit broader
Friday. Getting to the point where you would expect to see the range make a
move, but look back at September to early November: range-bound for 8 weeks
and that was after 7 weeks just ahead of it. The only thing to do in this
situation is keep alert, keep positions neat and trim, keep a watch on
leaders and potentially up and coming sectors, and be ready to act of they
break higher out of a range as in early November.
CHARTS
NASDAQ: Another all-time high as NASDAQ is the most recent darling as the
FAANG and a few other big name tech stocks rally. FB, AMZN, NFLX rallied
while AAPL, GOOG took a personal day. That was enough to post half percent
gains for the tech index.
RUTX: Biggest gainer on the Friday session but that leaves RUTX still
solidly entrenched in its 5 week lateral range along the 20 day EMA. Sold
to the bottom of the range on the week, tested deep Thursday and undercut
it, but recovered. It is holding and started to rebound. Now will it
continue and then make a break?
SP400: Very similar to RUTX and SP500, the midcaps are in a sixth week of
consolidation in a 40 point range from 1660 to 1700, bumping at a new high.
Currently in the upper half of the range. MACD is lower. What does it
mean? For now the upside momentum has waned but there are no real sellers.
Indeed as with RUTX, it was sold Thursday and fell to the bottom of the
range just to be bought. That shows you there are still buyers ready to move
in even after 6 weeks of lethargy.
SP500: Tested lower Thursday, rebounded back to the top half of the 5 week
range. Friday a modest bounce tapped the top of the range, faded slightly.
So, the large caps are at the top of the range on lower MACD. Yes, momentum
has slowed but the buyers are still ready, at this point, to pick up stocks
on a dip. The next logical question are they gaining strength such that
they can push a breakout?
DJ30: Very similar action, now 5 weeks into a rather tight lateral range
with a bottom at 19,750 and a top at . . . just below 20K. MACD still
dropping suggesting waning momentum -- but that can be deceiving in these
lateral moves. If there is a second high that is on lower MACD, that is a
more negative indication. If it elongates like we are seeing, not so much.
There is that high volume taking it to nowhere, and that is churn, an
indication of unloading stocks. That makes this a bit inconsistent with the
other indices as it is more an indication the move is running out of gas,
being undermined as sellers sell as fast as buyers are buying, unloading a
lot of stock.
SOX: Bounced off the 20 day EMA last week, but failed to really make a
serious move. SOX posted a higher high three weeks back but MACD did not;
that is a more accurate sign of waning momentum than as on DJ30 as noted
above. It looked as if chips were in trouble, but many key names held on
just find, others recovered, and still others made upside moves. SOX is an
important indicator, and if that downside move was just a head fakes -- as
many of the moves suggest -- that is a positive for the overall market.
LEADERSHIP
Semiconductors: Some good moves on the week, some good recoveries. QRVO
came out of the bottom of its range to surge, MXL came to life, and LRCX
broke to a higher high Friday. AMAT continues as a leader. MU is hanging
in, SMTC, SLAB look quite solid. Not all is candy and nuts; AMD is still
fading, XLNX is challenged to hang on.
FAANG: FB again rallied and NFLX made a new break higher. AMZN put in a
Friday gain on top of a strong week. GOOG, AAPL rested.
Big tech: Holding on in most cases, e.g. MSFT in its narrow range, while
others such as JNPR struggled.
China: Still looks solid. YNDX in a nice 10 day EMA test of its prior
move. NTES in a great little pullback. BABA is very similar as is BIDU.
Transports: Could be starting the rebound. CSX continues as it has already
made its move, but others could be starting. Trucking is moving, e.g. SAIA,
ODFL breaking higher Friday. Airlines, not so much yet.
Financial: Lots of earnings hit and at least they avoided selling off. Sure
the bald headed guy on CNBC was touting the results, but BAC, BLK, WFC
missed on their metrics. Again, however, they did not fall so we will see if
they can resume the higher out of their flat lateral ranges.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +26.63 points (+0.48%) to close at 5574.12
Volume: 1.805B (-11.42%)
Up Volume: 999.11M (+324.45M)
Down Volume: 588.04M (-481.96M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.34 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.93 to 1
New Highs: 153 (+65)
New Lows: 19 (-6)
S&P
Stats: +4.2 points (+0.18%) to close at 2274.64
NYSE Volume: 754.3M (-5.56%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.67 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.5 to 1
New Highs: 128 (+44)
New Lows: 10 (-7)
DJ30
Stats: -5.27 points (-0.03%) to close at 19885.73
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.23; -0.31
VXN: 13.34; -0.52
VXO: 10.62; -0.42
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.15
After a day back over 1.0 on the Thursday intraday selling the ratio fell,
but still is high overall, indicating still plenty of put protection buying
as the market moves laterally. At this juncture, that is starting to look
as a positive as the funds are still worried about selling enough to
continue buying protection.
Bulls and Bears: Well, back down and quite a drop in bulls, moving below 60
and below the prior week's 59.8 reading. Typically, however, the damage has
been done once 60 is broached.
Bulls: 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8
Bears: 18.4 versus 18.4 versus 19.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.6 versus 60.2
60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9
versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4%
versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus
47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 18.3 versus 18.4
18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6
versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6
Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3%
versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus
20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8%
versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.393% versus 2.358%
Historical: 2.358% versus 2.365% versus 2.38% versus 2.962% versus 2.42%
versus 2.357% versus 2.45% versus 2.448% versus 2.42% versus 2.48% versus
2.51% versus 2.56% versus 2.54% versus 2.55% versus 2.54% versus 2.564%
versus 2.544% versus 2.59% versus 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473% versus
2.475% versus 2.471% versus 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396%
versus 2.394% versus 2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus
2.36% versus 2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297%
versus 2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus
1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778%
Dollar: Landed on the 50 day MA's last week as other countries intervened
to support their currencies. They cannot keep that up forever, the US looks
stronger and with the Trump growth policies planned it will likely be
stronger. Thus the dollar is well-positioned to bounce.
EUR/USD: 1.06450 versus 1.0624
Historical: 1.0624 versus 1.05982 versus 1.0555 versus 1.0585 versus 1.05346
versus 105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus 1.05155
versus 1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus 1.04412
versus 1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459 versus 1.0415 versus 1.05094
versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586 versus 1.06140 versus 1.07745
versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601
versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066 versus 1.05910
USD/JPY: 114.473 versus 114.57
Historical: 114.57 versus 114.70 versus 115.811 versus 116.023 versus
116.923 versus 115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983 versus 116.739 versus
116.456 versus 116.793 versus 117.41 versus 117.413 versus 117.32 versus
117.537 versus 117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus 117.941 versus
118.257 versus 117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus 115.20 versus
114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus 113.52 versus
113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus 111.835 versus
113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809
Oil: 52.37, -0.64. Oil dropped like a rock Monday and Tuesday, held the 50
day EMA and rebounded. Friday was a bit weak but oil held just over the
breakout point that is, after so many back and forth moves, somewhat porous.
Gold: 1196.20, -3.60. Showed a Friday doji after clearing the 50 day MA's
midweek. Not bad action but gold has not proved it can sustain the 3 week
rally and hold a break over the 50 day MA's. Those stopped it in September
and again in early November when it tried to recover.
TUESDAY
NASDAQ leads but the move is extremely narrow, the other indices locked in
5+ week ranges, unable to push higher. The tedium is here for certain as
the market watches the upcoming inauguration as well as all of the issues
swirling that have little to do with what is actually going to happen once
the new administration begins.
We hear China blustering about the US had better prepare for military action
if the US won't adhere to the 'one China' fiction. The factually bereft
rumor mill about the Russian connection, trade protectionism, and on and on.
All speculation and it is as if the market has said 'enough, I am going to
wait until the inauguration.' Often it is not the results of the event but
the start that is enough for the market. Ahead of the Iraq war the market
was at a standstill, but when the 'shock and awe' bombs started to fly, so
did the market. Sometimes it is not upside, but the point is if the market
idles during a swirl of stories and confusion, it will likely make its move
when the event finally begins. Oh yes, and don't forget earnings just
getting started.
As for the China comments, you can tell China has done its homework on The
Donald, throwing out its extreme negotiating point in the first salvo just
as outlined in Trump's 'The Art of the Deal.' Anyone who thinks China is
serious or is hand-wringing over what Trump says, you should go read that
book as well. You don't have to buy it if you don't want Trump to get any
royalties; just borrow it. Indeed, I think the country would have been much
more at ease in the election process if everyone actually knew something
about the candidates other than what the news reports. Most everyone in the
primaries and certainly the final two candidates have books out and you can
tell a lot about a person by not only what they write in a book but what
they include and don't include. But alas, the majority of the citizenry
gets its 'information' from headline snippets and 30 second stories that
barely get the headline out before they get the cue to move onto the next
non-story. But, I digress.
So, it makes sense with all of the speculation and supposition versus facts
in the news that the market is idling laterally. We have tightened up our
positions in anticipation of the triggering moment, at the same time still
picking up positions that look good, and having a lot of good looking plays
from many sectors at the ready for when the move occurs.
Now we see which way the market will break. Earnings might provide a
catalyst, but Friday they certainly were not for the financials. Beat or
miss they were status quo. While earnings will no doubt move individual
stocks, it may indeed be the inauguration that moves stocks as a whole,
getting the certainty of at least getting to the point some of the plans can
actually be executed.
What about the current economic data? Well, as usual, the feds love to
paint the data with glowing commentary, but also as usual, the facts don't
support it. Friday the December retail sales were issues, and the headline
at 0.6% looked good enough compared to the 0.2% in November.
Of course the details were bedeviling. If you take out autos and gasoline
sales as is always done by most serious economists, you get a 0.0% gain when
a 0.4% gain was expected! Outside of auto sales that were at a record pace
and now are expected to drop off, and gasoline prices that made up the bulk
of the December increase, you had NO increase in spending in December.
Recall there was supposed to be a late surge of buying after a weak
November. Did not happen. Much room for the new Administration to improve
despite the feverish legacy building ongoing right now.
So, with the sellers rarely showing any strength and the buyers returning on
each test of the range lows, we are still looking upside in terms of new
plays, but it is also still a 'show me' move upside as discussed before.
With the inauguration on Friday, it could still be another week of range
trading, but we are already seeing some stocks get out in front of a move.
As on Friday, we will get out there with them if they can hold the gains.
Have a great weekend and Martin Luther King Day!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5574.12
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 5458
The November prior all-time high at 5404
The 50 day EMA at 5404
The 50 day SMA at 5373
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 200 day SMA at 5126
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2274.64
Resistance:
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2255
The 50 day EMA at 2230
The 50 day SMA at 2219
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2146
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,885.73
Resistance:
19,987.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 20 day EMA 19,816
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 50 day EMA at 19,437
The 50 day SMA at 19,355
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 200 day SMA at 18,402
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
January 13 - Friday
PPI, December (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior (no
revisions)
Core PPI, December (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior (no
revisions)
Retail Sales, December (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.7% expected, 0.2% prior
(revised from 0.1%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, December (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.6% expected,
0.3% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Business Inventories, November (10:00): 0.7% actual versus 0.6%
expected, -0.1% prior (revised from -0.2%)
Michigan Sentiment - Pre, January (10:00): 98.1 actual versus 98.5 expected,
98.2 prior (no revisions)
January 17 - Tuesday
Empire Manufacturing, January (8:30): 8.3 expected, 9.0 prior
January 18 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applications, 01/14 (7:00)
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/14 (7:00): 5.8% prior
CPI, December (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Core CPI, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Industrial Production, December (9:15): 0.6% expected, -0.4% prior
Capacity Utilization, December (9:15): 75.4% expected, 75.0% prior
NAHB Housing Market , January (10:00): 70 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Flows, January (16:00): $9.4B prior
January 19 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/14 (8:30): 252K expected, 247K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/07 (8:30): 2087K prior
Housing Starts, December (8:30): 1193K expected, 1090K prior
Building Permits, December (8:30): 1217K expected, 1201K prior
Philadelphia Fed, January (8:30): 15.3 expected, 21.5 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/14 (10:30): -151 bcf prior
Crude Inventories, 01/13 (11:00): +4.100M prior
End part 1 of 3
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Sunday, January 08, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 1-6-17
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1/6/2017 Investment House Daily
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- SP500, NASDAQ move to new highs, but low trade and very narrow leadership.
- DJ30 fails at 20K again, no cigar, but a lot of volume, suggesting churn.
- Jobs Report heralded just as it is every month, but the facts show a
different story than the headlines.
- Great patterns are still abundant.
- With bullishness over 60% the rally now has a governor on it, but there
are many great setups that can provide another playable upside move before
that takes hold.
And still no Dow 20K. 0.37 points separated D30 from that 'magical' level.
Traders and bigwigs were on the NYSE floor, Dow 20,000 hats in hand, but . .
. no cigar.
After a week that small and midcaps put in great moves Wednesday, assuming
the lead in what looked to be a January Effect move, they faded to end the
week, failing to put in a new high. DJ30 put in a new high, it just could
not hold it. SOX is still down at the 20 day EMA as it puts in an important
test of prior gains.
While the small and midcaps slipped modestly from the prior highs to end the
week, NASDAQ and SP500, led by the FAANG stocks, moved to new all-time
highs. So, you have some large cap indices moving to new highs but on very
narrow breadth, unlike Wednesday that saw advance/decline readings of better
than 5:1. Thus, you had some new highs, but that was somewhat of a hollow
victory for the week.
SP500 7.98, 0.35%
NASDAQ 33.12, 0.60%
DJ30 64.51, 0.32%
SP400 -0.08%
RUTX -0.34%
SOX 0.77%
VOLUME: NYSE -15%, NASDAQ -1%. After average-ish volume on the first week
of the new year, trade fell below average. Definitely not a surge in buying
to start the new year, and SP500 and NASDAQ hit new highs on really light
volume. Unlike the Russian Hacking Intelligence Report, that does not give
the move 'high confidence.'
A/D: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1. Negative breadth on the session shows the
thinness of the NASDAQ and SP500 gains.
Thus ended the first week of 2017. Many view this as a positive omen for
the market, but frankly I put little stock in the January indicator. Last
year January was a bloodbath but the market ended higher. Okay, a lot of
that was due to the post-election rally, because without it, the horrific
start to the year would have left the indices flat despite rallying from
February to October.
In any event, the past week showed the minimal in terms of new money
entering the market. There are plenty of great stocks in great patterns in
energy, financial, transports, telecom, metals. There are others trying to
turn back up such as some biotechs, drugs. The question the market has to
answer is whether new money is going to enter to drive these good patterns
to breakouts or otherwise solid upside moves.
As such we have some nice new plays in sectors that would be considered
candidates for new money in a new year, as well as plays on stocks that have
made some good moves but have consolidated and set up the foundation for a
new good move.
At the same time we let our current positions work as long as they do, but
we are also closing positions that show questionable action, preferring to
hold onto some gain versus risking bigger drops in a market that is less
than sure about its next moves.
NEWS/ECONOMY
The Final Obama Jobs Report
In 8 years $10T has been added to the debt to increase the number of people
out of the workforce by 18% to 95.1M and produce the worst recovery in
history.
Not one year of 3% growth, part of the only streak of 10 years of no 3%
annual GDP growth since the Great Depression. An average of 2.1% yearly
growth for 8 years, an all-time low.
The Administration touts the creation of millions of jobs, but as we have
chronicled for the duration, those jobs are by far and away low pay, hourly
jobs. Indeed, thanks to regulations such as the ACA, the Administration has
encouraged the creation of part-time, temporary, and contract jobs and that
is exactly what has happened. I penned the query many times: are millions
of part-time and low-pay jobs that require a person to work 2 or 3 jobs an
equitable trade for what used to be full-time breadwinner jobs where one job
could support and provide a future for a family? Of course not, and you
have to wonder if November was in large part about that result.
With the December report (156K jobs) the final tally for 2016 is 180K jobs
per month. Hardly banner and indeed the lowest since and well off the pace
from 2011, and that was not a barnburner.
The December details:
Unemployment rate: 4.7% vs 4.7% expected versus 4.6% November
Participation: 62.7% versus 62.8%
Number out of workforce: +18K to 95.1M (+841K in Q4), an all-time high.
For Obama's term that number has risen 18%. A great jobs recovery we are
told in what are, to borrow the parlance of the day, 'fake news' stories.
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.39% to 2.9% year/year, a 7 year high.
Average Workweek: 34.3 versus 34.4 expected versus 34.3 prior (revised from
34.4)
The earnings are heralded, but as with each monthly jobs report the past 8
years, the headlines deceive you.
First, how do you get declining average workweeks, chronically weak the
entire recovery, and rising wages? Typically employers work employees to
the max, increasing the average workweek more and more until employees are
ready to quit, then the wages rise as the employers have to give wages or
lose workers to other employers. That is not the case right now.
Second, look at the causes of a wage rise. The workweek is not rising, but
in several states and localities, employers are forced to raise wages due to
higher minimum wage requirements, thus required to pay more than the
skillsets of the workers would draw in a free market. Rising wages by
government fiat. As Amazon is already showing, the shift to robotics can be
quick if the economics favor it.
Third, just where are the higher wages going? Production workers and
non-supervisory workers, 82.3% of the workforce have seen gains of 2.5%
annually, basically unchanged since 2014. This after annual gains of 4%
leading into the recession starting in 2007. Thus, for the vast majority of
workers, wages are growing just barely ahead of even the government reported
inflation that we know is not the real world inflation rate because they
take out some of the major components that the average citizen CANNOT
ex-out.
What about the other 17.7% of the workforce? Those are the supervisors and
management. They have enjoyed 4.7% gains in December ALONE!
Thus, even the wage gains are overstated, because just as everything else in
this economy where we were told that the policies were designed to help the
middle class, it has actually CRUSHED the middle class while the very high
end were greatly rewarded. Indeed, as I have often wrote, in the past few
years the middle class, for the first time since it became the majority
decades and decades ago, is no longer the majority of US citizens.
You can read all the headlines you want and fool yourself how great this
past 10 years has been for the economy, but if you look at the facts they
are lousy. You can compare to all of the prior recessions and recoveries
and they are the worst. Even without that comparison, however, when you
have the middle class fall from majority to minority that speaks for itself.
When a worker is forced to work 2 or 3 jobs and not even make the same
income has he or she did with 1 job before losing that job, that speaks for
itself. When you have an 8 year run to new highs in the stock market and
the middle class collapses you know the policies did not benefit them.
Great economy? Great recovery? Hogwash.
THE MARKET
New highs on NASDAQ and SP500, but no volume. DJ30 on the other hand showed
big volume but could not punch higher. Neither of these are good
indications.
CHARTS
NASDAQ: After a questionable end to 2016 that saw NASDAQ break the 2016 up
trendline, NASDAQ posted an upside week that took it to a new all-time high
Friday. Volume jumped above average on Tuesday after the slow holiday
period, but after that session volume fell off and the Friday new high was
on the lowest trade of the week. Not a powerful move and indeed a very
narrow move as NASDAQ was driven by a very few large cap stocks.
SP500: A new all-time high here as well after a 4 week lateral move after a
new high in early December. Volume moved higher on the week but was never
back above average. Friday trade was the lowest of the week on the high --
not a good combination, not one that instills a lot of confidence the move
will hold. Very narrow move here as well.
DJ30: Hit a new all-time high intraday but did not hold it. Also missed
the 20K level again. Still in the four week lateral move. Unlike the other
indices, strong, above average volume each session. What does that mean?
Bumping up against 20K but every time it approached that level sell programs
kicked it, preventing the break. Going nowhere in the macro picture, the
high volume indicates churn, high volume selling that undermines attempts to
move higher after a rally. Thus time to be very observant as how the DJ30
leaders act.
SOX: Second week testing the new high hit late December. Holding the 20
day EMA for four sessions. A good test thus far but SOX has rallied well
and MACD did not breakout on the last high. As with the other indices,
showing a bit of lethargy after a good rally. Can still make the move,
however.
SP400: Big move Wednesday to test the early December high, but could not
push through as money shifted to the large caps to end the week. Closed at
the 10 day EMA with a doji on Friday, leaving it in very good position
still.
RUTX: Also a big Wednesday move that came just shy of a new high, followed
by a fall Thursday and Friday. Holding the range. Money was moving into
the small caps, as it should this time of year, but then stalled. It will
have to show more money coming its way this week.
LEADERSHIP:
Semiconductors: In the pullback phase. NVDA, XLNX holding near support,
trying to hold and set up a new move. INTC is still in a great pattern and
indeed many chips remain in good position to rally. After a lot of good and
long moves, they have to show they can hold and make the move.
Financial: GS looked good Friday, starting to break higher. The other big
names, e.g. C, BAC, JPM struggled in their continuing lateral 3 to 4 week
moves.
FAANG: Solid week. NFLX led the move, never really selling hard. Then FB,
AMZN, GOOG moved as well. GOOG had a pretty good setup. Some other big
NASDAQ stocks moved as well, e.g. MSFT, but not nearly showing the strength
of the FAANG stocks.
Oil: Still solid as oil struggled some but finished the week stronger. APC
is holding its range. PKD, PDS had very respectable weeks, moving back up
off tests. HAL hit a higher high. NE surged on the week. GST, BTE, SDLP,
DNR remain in very good setups.
Transports: Rails are starting to bounce with CSX in the lead. Truckers
are still solid though not moving higher yet, e.g. JBHT, SAIA, ODFL.
Airlines are in a similar way, e.g. DAL, AAL.
Metals: Not a bad week. FCX broke nicely higher. AKS holding its lateral
move. RS testing the 50 day EMA.
Biotech/Drugs: AMGN gapped higher Friday. BIIB is in a decent pattern.
KERX looks solid. IMGN, IMMU, SRPT, CORT -- many look solid.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +33.12 points (+0.6%) to close at 5521.06
Volume: 1.889B (-0.68%)
Up Volume: 995.63M (+125.16M)
Down Volume: 677.69M (-192.1M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.2 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.44 to 1
New Highs: 102 (-20)
New Lows: 21 (+3)
S&P
Stats: +7.98 points (+0.35%) to close at 2276.98
NYSE Volume: 769.4M (-14.51%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.11 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
New Highs: 108 (-91)
New Lows: 20 (+6)
DJ30
Stats: +64.51 points (+0.32%) to close at 19963.8
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.32; -0.35
VXN: 13.85; -0.78
VXO: 11.05; +0.05
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; -0.19
Slipped from 1.0+, but still holding at a higher level, still showing funds
are buying protection.
Bulls and Bears: After holding at 59.8, bulls jumped over 60 the past week,
moving over that level considered indicative of coming peaks in rallies.
Bears declined as they should have.
Bulls: 60.2 versus 59.8
Bears: 18.4 versus 19.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 60.2 versus 59.8
59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0
versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7
versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7
versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5%
versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus
45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 19.4 versus 19.6
19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5
versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8
versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2
versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7%
versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus
21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3%
versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.42% versus 2.357%. After surging to the 50 day MA's, TLT
faded to test and we will see if it can make the break higher after testing
the initial move.
Historical: 2.357% versus 2.45% versus 2.448% versus 2.42% versus 2.48%
versus 2.51% versus 2.56% versus 2.54% versus 2.55% versus 2.54% versus
2.564% versus 2.544% versus 2.59% versus 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473%
versus 2.475% versus 2.471% versus 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus
2.396% versus 2.394% versus 2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%.
versus 2.36% versus 2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus
2.297% versus 2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077%
versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus
1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791%
EUR/USD: 1.05346 versus 1.05837. After surging to the 50 day EMA Thursday,
the euro backed off Friday. This is where it failed in early December.
Historical: 105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus
1.05155 versus 1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus
1.04412 versus 1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459 versus 1.0415 versus
1.05094 versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586 versus 1.06140 versus
1.07745 versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus
1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066 versus 1.05910 versus
1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus 1.0587 versus 1.0650 versus
1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858 versus 1.08898 versus
1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406 versus 1.11059 versus
1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus
1.0895 versus 1.08793
USD/JPY: 116.923 versus 115.93. Faded on the week but rebounded Friday to
the 10 day EMA.
Historical: 115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983 versus 116.739 versus
116.456 versus 116.793 versus 117.41 versus 117.413 versus 117.32 versus
117.537 versus 117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus 117.941 versus
118.257 versus 117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus 115.20 versus
114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus 113.52 versus
113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus 111.835 versus
113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus 110.905 versus
110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus 106.621 versus
106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus 103.112 versus
102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus 104.710 versus
105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus 103.83 versus
103.99 versus 103.99
Oil: 53.99, +0.23. Back up to the recent closing highs post-breakout.
Struggling to get through 54.50.
Gold: 1173.40, -7.90. Rallied up near the 50 day MA's Thursday, took a day
off Friday.
MONDAY
Second week of 2017. The first week saw some good moves in small and
midcaps give way to a narrow break higher by some select large caps Friday.
You would expect the smaller caps to fare better as big funds buy them in a
January Effect move, so this week and how they perform will be instructive
as to the market's continued efforts to rally.
Other items to watch as noted earlier. NASDAQ and SP500 put in new highs on
low volume and failing MACD. DJ30 failed to break 20K, but more importantly
it moved laterally just below that level on very high volume, suggesting
that sellers were very active, selling each time DJ30 tried to take out 20K.
That churn is an indication of money moving out of the market and can spell
the end of a rally. Overlay bullish advisor sentiment over 60 and you have
to be careful and watch how the leaders hold up.
There are still many good setups in the market in many sectors. We have
some very good plays that are in great position to move, including some
China stocks that are now moving well.
With the sentiment over 60, you have to proceed under the assumption that
the rally is now in its end game before a deeper correction. It can still
put in a further rally and it has the setups to do so. We will play good
moves as long as they show up and good runs continue. When breaks higher
quickly roll and fail, and when good rallies break trend, then you know the
move is out of gas.
Moving forward we will have to see if the money comes in on the buy side and
can rally the indices to higher highs on strong volume versus the anemic
trade shown last week. Good setups need to yield good upside moves and
produce broad index moves. Oh, not that difficult, right?
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5521.06
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 5440
The November prior all-time high at 5404
The 50 day EMA at 5371
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 50 day SMA at 5338
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 200 day SMA at 5107
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2276.98
Resistance:
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2247
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
The 50 day EMA at 2220
The 50 day SMA at 2205
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2141
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,963.80
Resistance:
10,987.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 20 day EMA 19,764
The 50 day EMA at 19,336
The 50 day SMA at 19,179
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
The 200 day SMA at 18,345
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
January 6 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, December (8:30): 156K actual versus 175K expected, 204K
prior (revised from 178K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, December (8:30): 144K actual versus 170K expected,
198K prior (revised from 156K)
Unemployment Rate, December (8:30): 4.7% actual versus 4.7% expected, 4.6%
prior (no revisions)
Hourly Earnings, December (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, -0.1%
prior (no revisions)
Average Workweek, December (8:30): 34.3 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.3
prior (revised from 34.4)
Trade Balance, November (8:30): -$45.2B actual versus -$42.2B
expected, -$42.4B prior (revised from -$42.6B)
Factory Orders, November (10:00): -2.4% actual versus -2.1% expected, 2.8%
prior (revised from 2.7%)
January 9 - Monday
Consumer Credit, November (15:00): $18.0B expected, $16.0B prior
January 10 - Tuesday
JOLTS - Job Openings, November (10:00): 5.534M prior
Wholesale Inventorie, November (10:00): 0.9% expected, -0.4% prior
January 11 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 01/06 (7:00): 0.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/06 (10:30): -7.100M prior
January 12 - Thursday
Export Prices ex-ag., December (8:30): 0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, December (8:30): -0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 01/07 (8:30): 255K expected, 235K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/31 (8:30): 2112K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/07 (10:30): -49 bcf prior
Treasury Budget, December (14:00): -$14.4B prior
January 13 - Friday
PPI, December (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Core PPI, December (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales, December (8:30): 0.7% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, December (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.2% prior
Business Inventories, November (10:00): 0.6% expected, -0.2% prior
Mich Sentiment, January (10:00): 98.5 expected, 98.2 prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
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MARKET SUMMARY
- SP500, NASDAQ move to new highs, but low trade and very narrow leadership.
- DJ30 fails at 20K again, no cigar, but a lot of volume, suggesting churn.
- Jobs Report heralded just as it is every month, but the facts show a
different story than the headlines.
- Great patterns are still abundant.
- With bullishness over 60% the rally now has a governor on it, but there
are many great setups that can provide another playable upside move before
that takes hold.
And still no Dow 20K. 0.37 points separated D30 from that 'magical' level.
Traders and bigwigs were on the NYSE floor, Dow 20,000 hats in hand, but . .
. no cigar.
After a week that small and midcaps put in great moves Wednesday, assuming
the lead in what looked to be a January Effect move, they faded to end the
week, failing to put in a new high. DJ30 put in a new high, it just could
not hold it. SOX is still down at the 20 day EMA as it puts in an important
test of prior gains.
While the small and midcaps slipped modestly from the prior highs to end the
week, NASDAQ and SP500, led by the FAANG stocks, moved to new all-time
highs. So, you have some large cap indices moving to new highs but on very
narrow breadth, unlike Wednesday that saw advance/decline readings of better
than 5:1. Thus, you had some new highs, but that was somewhat of a hollow
victory for the week.
SP500 7.98, 0.35%
NASDAQ 33.12, 0.60%
DJ30 64.51, 0.32%
SP400 -0.08%
RUTX -0.34%
SOX 0.77%
VOLUME: NYSE -15%, NASDAQ -1%. After average-ish volume on the first week
of the new year, trade fell below average. Definitely not a surge in buying
to start the new year, and SP500 and NASDAQ hit new highs on really light
volume. Unlike the Russian Hacking Intelligence Report, that does not give
the move 'high confidence.'
A/D: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1. Negative breadth on the session shows the
thinness of the NASDAQ and SP500 gains.
Thus ended the first week of 2017. Many view this as a positive omen for
the market, but frankly I put little stock in the January indicator. Last
year January was a bloodbath but the market ended higher. Okay, a lot of
that was due to the post-election rally, because without it, the horrific
start to the year would have left the indices flat despite rallying from
February to October.
In any event, the past week showed the minimal in terms of new money
entering the market. There are plenty of great stocks in great patterns in
energy, financial, transports, telecom, metals. There are others trying to
turn back up such as some biotechs, drugs. The question the market has to
answer is whether new money is going to enter to drive these good patterns
to breakouts or otherwise solid upside moves.
As such we have some nice new plays in sectors that would be considered
candidates for new money in a new year, as well as plays on stocks that have
made some good moves but have consolidated and set up the foundation for a
new good move.
At the same time we let our current positions work as long as they do, but
we are also closing positions that show questionable action, preferring to
hold onto some gain versus risking bigger drops in a market that is less
than sure about its next moves.
NEWS/ECONOMY
The Final Obama Jobs Report
In 8 years $10T has been added to the debt to increase the number of people
out of the workforce by 18% to 95.1M and produce the worst recovery in
history.
Not one year of 3% growth, part of the only streak of 10 years of no 3%
annual GDP growth since the Great Depression. An average of 2.1% yearly
growth for 8 years, an all-time low.
The Administration touts the creation of millions of jobs, but as we have
chronicled for the duration, those jobs are by far and away low pay, hourly
jobs. Indeed, thanks to regulations such as the ACA, the Administration has
encouraged the creation of part-time, temporary, and contract jobs and that
is exactly what has happened. I penned the query many times: are millions
of part-time and low-pay jobs that require a person to work 2 or 3 jobs an
equitable trade for what used to be full-time breadwinner jobs where one job
could support and provide a future for a family? Of course not, and you
have to wonder if November was in large part about that result.
With the December report (156K jobs) the final tally for 2016 is 180K jobs
per month. Hardly banner and indeed the lowest since and well off the pace
from 2011, and that was not a barnburner.
The December details:
Unemployment rate: 4.7% vs 4.7% expected versus 4.6% November
Participation: 62.7% versus 62.8%
Number out of workforce: +18K to 95.1M (+841K in Q4), an all-time high.
For Obama's term that number has risen 18%. A great jobs recovery we are
told in what are, to borrow the parlance of the day, 'fake news' stories.
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.39% to 2.9% year/year, a 7 year high.
Average Workweek: 34.3 versus 34.4 expected versus 34.3 prior (revised from
34.4)
The earnings are heralded, but as with each monthly jobs report the past 8
years, the headlines deceive you.
First, how do you get declining average workweeks, chronically weak the
entire recovery, and rising wages? Typically employers work employees to
the max, increasing the average workweek more and more until employees are
ready to quit, then the wages rise as the employers have to give wages or
lose workers to other employers. That is not the case right now.
Second, look at the causes of a wage rise. The workweek is not rising, but
in several states and localities, employers are forced to raise wages due to
higher minimum wage requirements, thus required to pay more than the
skillsets of the workers would draw in a free market. Rising wages by
government fiat. As Amazon is already showing, the shift to robotics can be
quick if the economics favor it.
Third, just where are the higher wages going? Production workers and
non-supervisory workers, 82.3% of the workforce have seen gains of 2.5%
annually, basically unchanged since 2014. This after annual gains of 4%
leading into the recession starting in 2007. Thus, for the vast majority of
workers, wages are growing just barely ahead of even the government reported
inflation that we know is not the real world inflation rate because they
take out some of the major components that the average citizen CANNOT
ex-out.
What about the other 17.7% of the workforce? Those are the supervisors and
management. They have enjoyed 4.7% gains in December ALONE!
Thus, even the wage gains are overstated, because just as everything else in
this economy where we were told that the policies were designed to help the
middle class, it has actually CRUSHED the middle class while the very high
end were greatly rewarded. Indeed, as I have often wrote, in the past few
years the middle class, for the first time since it became the majority
decades and decades ago, is no longer the majority of US citizens.
You can read all the headlines you want and fool yourself how great this
past 10 years has been for the economy, but if you look at the facts they
are lousy. You can compare to all of the prior recessions and recoveries
and they are the worst. Even without that comparison, however, when you
have the middle class fall from majority to minority that speaks for itself.
When a worker is forced to work 2 or 3 jobs and not even make the same
income has he or she did with 1 job before losing that job, that speaks for
itself. When you have an 8 year run to new highs in the stock market and
the middle class collapses you know the policies did not benefit them.
Great economy? Great recovery? Hogwash.
THE MARKET
New highs on NASDAQ and SP500, but no volume. DJ30 on the other hand showed
big volume but could not punch higher. Neither of these are good
indications.
CHARTS
NASDAQ: After a questionable end to 2016 that saw NASDAQ break the 2016 up
trendline, NASDAQ posted an upside week that took it to a new all-time high
Friday. Volume jumped above average on Tuesday after the slow holiday
period, but after that session volume fell off and the Friday new high was
on the lowest trade of the week. Not a powerful move and indeed a very
narrow move as NASDAQ was driven by a very few large cap stocks.
SP500: A new all-time high here as well after a 4 week lateral move after a
new high in early December. Volume moved higher on the week but was never
back above average. Friday trade was the lowest of the week on the high --
not a good combination, not one that instills a lot of confidence the move
will hold. Very narrow move here as well.
DJ30: Hit a new all-time high intraday but did not hold it. Also missed
the 20K level again. Still in the four week lateral move. Unlike the other
indices, strong, above average volume each session. What does that mean?
Bumping up against 20K but every time it approached that level sell programs
kicked it, preventing the break. Going nowhere in the macro picture, the
high volume indicates churn, high volume selling that undermines attempts to
move higher after a rally. Thus time to be very observant as how the DJ30
leaders act.
SOX: Second week testing the new high hit late December. Holding the 20
day EMA for four sessions. A good test thus far but SOX has rallied well
and MACD did not breakout on the last high. As with the other indices,
showing a bit of lethargy after a good rally. Can still make the move,
however.
SP400: Big move Wednesday to test the early December high, but could not
push through as money shifted to the large caps to end the week. Closed at
the 10 day EMA with a doji on Friday, leaving it in very good position
still.
RUTX: Also a big Wednesday move that came just shy of a new high, followed
by a fall Thursday and Friday. Holding the range. Money was moving into
the small caps, as it should this time of year, but then stalled. It will
have to show more money coming its way this week.
LEADERSHIP:
Semiconductors: In the pullback phase. NVDA, XLNX holding near support,
trying to hold and set up a new move. INTC is still in a great pattern and
indeed many chips remain in good position to rally. After a lot of good and
long moves, they have to show they can hold and make the move.
Financial: GS looked good Friday, starting to break higher. The other big
names, e.g. C, BAC, JPM struggled in their continuing lateral 3 to 4 week
moves.
FAANG: Solid week. NFLX led the move, never really selling hard. Then FB,
AMZN, GOOG moved as well. GOOG had a pretty good setup. Some other big
NASDAQ stocks moved as well, e.g. MSFT, but not nearly showing the strength
of the FAANG stocks.
Oil: Still solid as oil struggled some but finished the week stronger. APC
is holding its range. PKD, PDS had very respectable weeks, moving back up
off tests. HAL hit a higher high. NE surged on the week. GST, BTE, SDLP,
DNR remain in very good setups.
Transports: Rails are starting to bounce with CSX in the lead. Truckers
are still solid though not moving higher yet, e.g. JBHT, SAIA, ODFL.
Airlines are in a similar way, e.g. DAL, AAL.
Metals: Not a bad week. FCX broke nicely higher. AKS holding its lateral
move. RS testing the 50 day EMA.
Biotech/Drugs: AMGN gapped higher Friday. BIIB is in a decent pattern.
KERX looks solid. IMGN, IMMU, SRPT, CORT -- many look solid.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +33.12 points (+0.6%) to close at 5521.06
Volume: 1.889B (-0.68%)
Up Volume: 995.63M (+125.16M)
Down Volume: 677.69M (-192.1M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.2 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.44 to 1
New Highs: 102 (-20)
New Lows: 21 (+3)
S&P
Stats: +7.98 points (+0.35%) to close at 2276.98
NYSE Volume: 769.4M (-14.51%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.11 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
New Highs: 108 (-91)
New Lows: 20 (+6)
DJ30
Stats: +64.51 points (+0.32%) to close at 19963.8
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.32; -0.35
VXN: 13.85; -0.78
VXO: 11.05; +0.05
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; -0.19
Slipped from 1.0+, but still holding at a higher level, still showing funds
are buying protection.
Bulls and Bears: After holding at 59.8, bulls jumped over 60 the past week,
moving over that level considered indicative of coming peaks in rallies.
Bears declined as they should have.
Bulls: 60.2 versus 59.8
Bears: 18.4 versus 19.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 60.2 versus 59.8
59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0
versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7
versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7
versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5%
versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus
45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 19.4 versus 19.6
19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5
versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8
versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2
versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7%
versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus
21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3%
versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.42% versus 2.357%. After surging to the 50 day MA's, TLT
faded to test and we will see if it can make the break higher after testing
the initial move.
Historical: 2.357% versus 2.45% versus 2.448% versus 2.42% versus 2.48%
versus 2.51% versus 2.56% versus 2.54% versus 2.55% versus 2.54% versus
2.564% versus 2.544% versus 2.59% versus 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473%
versus 2.475% versus 2.471% versus 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus
2.396% versus 2.394% versus 2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%.
versus 2.36% versus 2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus
2.297% versus 2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077%
versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus
1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791%
EUR/USD: 1.05346 versus 1.05837. After surging to the 50 day EMA Thursday,
the euro backed off Friday. This is where it failed in early December.
Historical: 105837 versus 1.0525 versus 1.03914 versus 1.05289 versus
1.05155 versus 1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus 1.04368 versus
1.04412 versus 1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459 versus 1.0415 versus
1.05094 versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586 versus 1.06140 versus
1.07745 versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus
1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066 versus 1.05910 versus
1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus 1.0587 versus 1.0650 versus
1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858 versus 1.08898 versus
1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406 versus 1.11059 versus
1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus
1.0895 versus 1.08793
USD/JPY: 116.923 versus 115.93. Faded on the week but rebounded Friday to
the 10 day EMA.
Historical: 115.93 versus 116.46 versus 117.983 versus 116.739 versus
116.456 versus 116.793 versus 117.41 versus 117.413 versus 117.32 versus
117.537 versus 117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus 117.941 versus
118.257 versus 117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus 115.20 versus
114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus 113.52 versus
113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus 111.835 versus
113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus 110.905 versus
110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus 106.621 versus
106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus 103.112 versus
102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus 104.710 versus
105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus 103.83 versus
103.99 versus 103.99
Oil: 53.99, +0.23. Back up to the recent closing highs post-breakout.
Struggling to get through 54.50.
Gold: 1173.40, -7.90. Rallied up near the 50 day MA's Thursday, took a day
off Friday.
MONDAY
Second week of 2017. The first week saw some good moves in small and
midcaps give way to a narrow break higher by some select large caps Friday.
You would expect the smaller caps to fare better as big funds buy them in a
January Effect move, so this week and how they perform will be instructive
as to the market's continued efforts to rally.
Other items to watch as noted earlier. NASDAQ and SP500 put in new highs on
low volume and failing MACD. DJ30 failed to break 20K, but more importantly
it moved laterally just below that level on very high volume, suggesting
that sellers were very active, selling each time DJ30 tried to take out 20K.
That churn is an indication of money moving out of the market and can spell
the end of a rally. Overlay bullish advisor sentiment over 60 and you have
to be careful and watch how the leaders hold up.
There are still many good setups in the market in many sectors. We have
some very good plays that are in great position to move, including some
China stocks that are now moving well.
With the sentiment over 60, you have to proceed under the assumption that
the rally is now in its end game before a deeper correction. It can still
put in a further rally and it has the setups to do so. We will play good
moves as long as they show up and good runs continue. When breaks higher
quickly roll and fail, and when good rallies break trend, then you know the
move is out of gas.
Moving forward we will have to see if the money comes in on the buy side and
can rally the indices to higher highs on strong volume versus the anemic
trade shown last week. Good setups need to yield good upside moves and
produce broad index moves. Oh, not that difficult, right?
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5521.06
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 5440
The November prior all-time high at 5404
The 50 day EMA at 5371
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 50 day SMA at 5338
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 200 day SMA at 5107
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2276.98
Resistance:
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2247
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
The 50 day EMA at 2220
The 50 day SMA at 2205
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2141
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,963.80
Resistance:
10,987.53 is the December 2016 high
Support:
The 20 day EMA 19,764
The 50 day EMA at 19,336
The 50 day SMA at 19,179
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
The 200 day SMA at 18,345
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
January 6 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, December (8:30): 156K actual versus 175K expected, 204K
prior (revised from 178K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, December (8:30): 144K actual versus 170K expected,
198K prior (revised from 156K)
Unemployment Rate, December (8:30): 4.7% actual versus 4.7% expected, 4.6%
prior (no revisions)
Hourly Earnings, December (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, -0.1%
prior (no revisions)
Average Workweek, December (8:30): 34.3 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.3
prior (revised from 34.4)
Trade Balance, November (8:30): -$45.2B actual versus -$42.2B
expected, -$42.4B prior (revised from -$42.6B)
Factory Orders, November (10:00): -2.4% actual versus -2.1% expected, 2.8%
prior (revised from 2.7%)
January 9 - Monday
Consumer Credit, November (15:00): $18.0B expected, $16.0B prior
January 10 - Tuesday
JOLTS - Job Openings, November (10:00): 5.534M prior
Wholesale Inventorie, November (10:00): 0.9% expected, -0.4% prior
January 11 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Applica, 01/06 (7:00): 0.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/06 (10:30): -7.100M prior
January 12 - Thursday
Export Prices ex-ag., December (8:30): 0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, December (8:30): -0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 01/07 (8:30): 255K expected, 235K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/31 (8:30): 2112K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/07 (10:30): -49 bcf prior
Treasury Budget, December (14:00): -$14.4B prior
January 13 - Friday
PPI, December (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Core PPI, December (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales, December (8:30): 0.7% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, December (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.2% prior
Business Inventories, November (10:00): 0.6% expected, -0.2% prior
Mich Sentiment, January (10:00): 98.5 expected, 98.2 prior
End part 1 of 3
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