* * * *
9/24/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: NPTN
Entry alerts: CEMP; TCBI
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Two good post-FOMC upside sessions and a Friday test.
- AAPL, FB have a few issues, market takes a break.
- A day off on Friday, but the test of the FOMC rally is the key to the
continuing trend.
- Market rotation has kept the market rallying, thus far it is still
working.
- Tons of data next week as market moves toward next earnings season.
After 2 days higher following the FOMC 'stay the do nothing course' and
higher highs from NASDAQ, SOX, and RUTX, stock indices took a breather, some
more than others. Stocks started a bit lower, sold into early afternoon,
bounced, but then slid back near session lows to close.
SP500 -12.49, -0.57%
NASDAQ -33.77, -0.63%
DJ30 -131.01, -0.71%
RUTX -0.78%
RUTX -0.70%
SOX -1.10%
VOLUME: NYSE -5%, NASDAQ -8%. Lower volume on a decline means no heavy
selling, so no distribution damage done.
A/D: NYSE -1.7:1, NASDAQ -1.7:1
Pretty much even selling across the board outside of SOX, but that index is
more volatile. In short, after all stocks rose fairly evenly after the Fed,
all pulled back rather evenly Friday. The difference, of course, is in
their patterns and there relative position after the rally and pullback.
DJ30, SP500 and SP400 clearly lagged the FOMC induced bounce with DJ30 the
weakest link. NASDAQ, SOX and RUTX are the stronger and best positioned
after Friday, but SOX and RUTX did not make clear breakouts and indeed slid
back below their early September highs at the Friday close. Not sharp
reversals but something to watch as those indices tested the prior highs,
moved to higher highs, but have slipped back below the prior highs. That
leaves AAPL as the sold index holding a higher high. Hey, leadership has to
come from somewhere.
This coming week we see just what the post-FOMC move really gave the market.
Before the FOMC, the indices were less than inspirational, particularly
DJ30, SP500, SP400. That means this rather normal test heading into the
weekend after two solid surges needs to hold next week and not let those
indices slip back into the neutral to negative near term patterns shown
immediately ahead of the FOMC decision to once again cheese up and do
nothing. You almost have to laugh at the statement "for the time being" as
it implies the Fed really considered acting or will consider acting in the
future.
In any event, laughing or not at the Fed's invertebrate classification, the
market reaction this coming week after the surge on the news and then the
pullback. In some cases it is a normal test. In other cases such as DJ30,
SP500, they are quickly reverting to their weak upside position ahead of the
FOMC. If they fall back into that pattern, that is a sign of weakness.
There is a lot of Fed-speak next week with Fischer on Tuesday and Yellen
twice later in the week as she heads to Congress. The debate Monday is
considered an important event. As discussed Thursday, there is the notion a
good Trump performance is bad for stocks as it might mean he can win and of
course we cannot have an outsider enter Washington, DC and even talk about
changing up the power structure. Frankly, all of that talk is more
political BS. The politics are full bore, full press into every area they
feel they can achieve an advantage for their side. The market is a pawn in
that fight. It can have short term swings based on any event, political or
otherwise, but the utter nonsense about crashes if one candidate or the
other is elected is nonsensical (e.g. Mark Cuban). After all, there is the
Fed backstop, right?
Again, as the play in 'Hamlet' was the thing to catch the conscience of the
king, the test will be the thing to prove . . . the strength of the
FOMC-driven move.
We were confident enough of some moves to initiate positions on CEMP and
TCBI and to let our other positions work, upside and down. Remember, this
market has worked higher by rotation from sector to sector. That has
provided upside and downside plays even as the market rises as money leaves
one sector and moves to another. The test of the FOMC move will tell a lot
more about the market's ability to continue making higher highs. Thus far
the market has overcome near term selling, using the FOMC decision as the
upside catalyst. This coming week will tell the strength of the move
post-Fed.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
NASDAQ: The week's leader, NASDAQ hit two new all-time highs Wednesday then
Thursday. Friday it tested and likely fills the Thursday upside gap. With
AMZN at new highs, GOOG surging into Thursday, NASDAQ had the horsepower.
It does not look bad at all and should put in a rather normal test of this
move. Rallied up the 10 day EMA, tested back to the 50 day MA the second
week of September, now back over the 10 day EMA and punching out new highs.
Classic breakout, rally, test, resumption of the breakout move.
SOX: The other index punching out new highs on the week, though SOX is just
a post-2000 high. Still, impressive strength as it too put in the rally up
the 10 day EMA, the 50 day MA test, then the resumption of the rally.
Still, it looks a bit heavy here with some sluggish action and lower MACD on
the higher high. Not the kiss of death, but as noted earlier, the test is
the key.
RUTX: The same action, testing off a rally up the 10 and 20 day EMA,
holding the 50 day MA, rebounding back to a higher high Thursday. Looks as
if RUTX is resuming the uptrend over the 10 day EMA as well, though MACD is
lagging a bit, perhaps not as much as on SOX.
SP400: The midcaps did well enough, but now how they test is key. Gapped
back over the 50 day MA Thursday after selling to and holding the up
trendline from way back in January. Tested Friday, holding the 50 day MA.
No higher highs for SP400 yet and it only made it to the lower gap point
from where it gapped lower in early September. MACD is lagging as on the
other indices. Yes, the test will tell the story, but holding that
trendline was important. Now if it sells and breaks that TL, that of course
is a negative story.
SP500: Similar to SP400, gapped over the 50 day SMA Thursday then slipped
Friday, closing below that level. Just missed filling the early September
gap lower but was a point from it; close. MACD lagging, volume stronger on
the selling than the previous upside volume and the subsequent recovery
volume the past 2 weeks. Still trending higher, really not bad at all, but
the test this week tells the tale.
DJ30: You could say DJ30 struggled the most of the indices. It did
recovery, it did gap higher Thursday, but after hitting the 50 day SMA on
the high it faded to a doji. Friday DJ30 sold to fill the Thursday upside
gap. After recapturing the prior all-time high from 2015 Thursday, DJ30 gave
it up Friday. MACD lags, volume favored the stronger early September
selling. Not to be too repetitious, but the test this week is the real
story.
LEADERSHIP
Big Names: AMZN edged out a new all-time high after a strong Wednesday and
Thursday surge. GOOG took a breather after a strong Thursday gap and run.
FB gapped lower but remains in the trend after revealing for 2 years it
overstated its video ad views by as much as 80%. AAPL sold to the 10 day
EMA on volume after a private company reported that iPhone 7 sales might not
be that good. NFLX is struggling to hold the 50 day MA. MSFT faded some of
the move but holding over the 20 day EMA. MMM dropped on strong volume off
a Thursday tombstone doji.
Biotech: Good week, not much Friday, e.g. BIIB, CELG. IDRA enjoyed a
strong week as did AGIO, OVAS. BCRX still looks good as does NVIV. ACAD
moved up early week, tested nicely to Friday. Looks as if CEMP is starting
up a move as of Friday. ENDP surged Friday; could be interesting.
Chips/Electronics: Mixed, some looking heavy. LSCC posted a good move
Thursday. UNXL surged Friday. HIMX is still rending up the 10 day EMA.
AVGO and SWKS, however, suffered a weak Friday on that AAPL iPhone 7 report.
SLAB, XLNX look heavy but are holding on for now.
Financial: Picked up some TCBI options as it broke higher on strong volume.
C, BAC still look good in their 3 week flag tests. MS is holding, but going
nowhere. GS broke harder to the downside Friday, selling to the 50 day MA.
Utilities: A strong week but testing late week, and that means some
possibilities perhaps setting up. Others continued higher, e.g. AES, AEE.
Oil: After a good week in some issues, e.g. AXAS, CWEI, APC, Friday was a
downer. Still some very strong moves but as with the indices, the test this
week tells more of the tale.
Retail: Getting more interesting. JWN is starting to move and if it
continues we will enter. FL worked up off the 20 day EMA test. RL is
interesting at the 200 day SMA. ROST continued higher.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -33.78 points (-0.63%) to close at 5305.75
Volume: 1.719B (-7.86%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.65 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.52 to 1
New Highs: 109 (-98)
New Lows: 19 (-2)
S&P
Stats: -12.49 points (-0.57%) to close at 2164.69
NYSE Volume: 810.4M (-4.8%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.71 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.67 to 1
New Highs: 54 (-112)
New Lows: 6 (+1)
DJ30
Stats: +98.76 points (+0.54%) to close at 18392.46
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 12.29; +0.27
VXN: 13.98; +0.32
VXO: 12.24; +0.4
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.05; +0.08
Eleven 1.0+ Readings in 4 weeks, 7 of the last 12 sessions over 1.0.
Bulls and Bears: Of course bulls tumbled and bears jumped just as the
market bottomed.
Bulls: 44.6 versus 49.0
Bears: 24.3 versus 22.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 44.6 versus 49.0
49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus
52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6%
versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2
versus 39.2 versus 40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus 41.2% versus 45.4%
versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus
34.7% versus 26.5%
Bears: 24.3 versus 22.6
22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus
21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8%
versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus
21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus
27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3%
versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus
36.1%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.62% versus 1.625%. Big gap Thursday post-FOMC, Friday
TLT stalled at the 50 day EMA and just below the July through August range.
That makes bonds look a bit weak post-FOMC.
Historical: 1.625% versus 1.656% versus 1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698%
versus 1.70% versus 1.698% versus 1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus
1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54% versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58%
versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus
1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558%
versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.51% versus 1.54% versus 1.59% versus
1.585% versus 1.503% versus 1.54% versus 1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.46%
versus 1.50%
EUR/USD: 1.12259 versus 1.12061. Euro looks ready to move higher after
recovering the 200 day SMA and the 50 day MA's. Big inverted head and
shoulders pattern.
Historical: 1.12061 versus 1.11898 versus 1.1151 versus 1.1177 versus 1.1155
versus 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335 versus 1.12318
versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545 versus 1.11943
versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949 versus 1.12894
versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251 versus 1.1342
versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus 1.11636 versus 1.11372
versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus 1.10882
USD/JPY: 101.034 versus 101.045. Dollar broke down hard Wednesday below
the 50 day MA's, back into the downtrend. Overall, however, USD could be
bottoming in a 3 month range with a low at 99.50 to 100.
Historical: 101.045 versus 100.386 versus 101.714 versus 101.956 versus
102.280 versus 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus
101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus
101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus
102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus
100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843 versus 100.529 versus 100.953 versus
101.308 versus 101.864
Oil: 44.48, -1.84. Dropped like a rock after rallying Monday to Thursday.
Rig count jumped in the US, Iran told Saudi Arabia to take its production
freeze idea and . . .
Gold: 1341.70, -3.00. Goldl jumped Wednesday and Thursday on the FOMC,
then faded just modestly Friday, holding at the 50 day SMA. In the 2.5 month
range and will see if it can put in a higher low at the 50 day and move
higher.
MONDAY
The Fed decision is out, arguably the most important data point. Hell, you
know it is. Continuing virtually free money for the banks and big
corporations has done SO much for the economy as a whole. Okay, so
financial assets are up, but as is evident talking to a lot of FORMER
investors, people who used to have money to invest but now need it all just
to try and hang onto what they have. To add to the Fed's 'no action'
action, this week the market gets some Fed-speak from Fischer and then
Yellen at Congress. Who knows how many others chime in?
Lots of data as well. New home sales, consumer confidence, durable orders,
GDP Q2 final, income and spending, Chicago PMI. Data heavy.
Okay, here comes the repeat: how the market tests from the Wednesday
Thursday FOMC-induced surge tells the tale. Friday some stocks took some
pretty serious hits to their gains, e.g. MMM selling hard from a tombstone
doji at the top of the July through August range.
A pullback gives opportunity in overbought leaders, IF the market holds the
test and resumes. With the Fed still all in the market should hold and
continue higher. If not, then the market has hit the saturation point of
the Fed just doing nothing. Of course if the market dives lower, not to
fear as the Fed and other central banks will step in as they did in
February. But here's the rub (still in Shakespeare mode, right?): of course
the market has to dive first.
Still many good sectors and stocks in good position to move. Picked up some
this past week, looking at more of course this week. How they test and hold
is the important aspect. Those that don't care and move higher anyway, well
they are likely to be very solid movers.
For downside plays, on an further test how they move tells their fate. If
the market sells and they don't, they likely don't sell much more and we
jettison. I have to say MMM still looks ready to drop and it is not alone.
TEX broke lower hard Friday and CMI still looks ready to blow an engine.
Despite all of the upside Fed euphoria (of sorts), there are issues out
there in the economy, market, and well, I just don't want to go into the
long list of extra-market issues facing the country because it is simply too
depressing to dwell upon.
Overall, the indices are in uptrends. There is still leadership, and there
are still good stocks forming good patterns and moving higher as money
rotates through different sectors. Of course we want to take advantage of
the trend and those stocks as long as they work.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5305.75
Resistance:
Support:
5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5175
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4881
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2164.69
Resistance:
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 2154
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2060
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,285.92
Resistance:
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,431
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
The 200 day SMA at 17,589
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
September 26 - Monday
New Home Sales, August (10:00): 585K expected, 654K prior
September 27 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, July (9:00): 5.1% expected, 5.1% prior
Consumer Confidence, September (10:00): 98.0 expected, 101.1 prior (revised
from 99.8)
September 28 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/24 (7:00): -7.3% prior
Durable Orders, August (8:30): -1.9% expected, 4.4% prior
Durable Orders, Ex-T, August (8:30): -0.4% expected, 1.5% prior
Crude Inventories, 09/24 (10:30): -6.200M prior
September 29 - Thursday
GDP - Third Estimate, Q2 (8:30): 1.3% expected, 1.1% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q2 (8:30): 2.3% expected, 2.3% prior
Initial Claims, 09/24 (8:30): 259K expected, 252K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/17 (8:30): 2113K prior
International Trade , August (8:30): -$59.3B prior
Pending Home Sales, August (10:00): 1.0% expected, 1.3% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 09/24 (10:30): 52 bcf prior
September 30 - Friday
Personal Income, August (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Personal Spending, August (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core PCE Prices, August (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Chicago PMI, September (9:45): 52.0 expected, 51.5 prior
Michigan Sentiment -, September (10:00): 90.0 expected, 89.8 prior
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
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1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Saturday, September 24, 2016
Sunday, September 18, 2016
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 9-17-16
* * * *
9/17/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
NOTE: THERE IS NO MARKET SUMMARY VIDEO THIS WEEKEND AS JON JOHNSON IS
TRAVELING. THANK YOU.
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: EXAS
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: AMZN; CX
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks status quo on expiration and ahead of FOMC week.
- SOX, NASDAQ leading and in decent shape. SP500, DJ30 just cannot decide.
- CPI year/year core 2+% again, but this 'speed limit' won't limit the Fed.
- The Fed versus the bears. 8 year old habits are hard to break.
Day to day, back and forth volatility continued into Friday, the September
expiration. Volume shot higher as the stocks indices struggled, but the
losses were not severe. Indeed, SOX was positive until the very session end
when some weakness hit again and took it lower with the other indices.
SP500 -8.10, -0.38%
DJ30 -88.68, -0.49%
NASDAQ -5.12, -0.10%
RUTX -0.18%
SP400 -0.51%
SOX -0.03%
VOLUME: NYSE +140%, NASDAQ +44%. Big expiration volume.
A/D: NYSE -1.8:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1
SOX and NASDAQ were the clear leading indices last week as they posted
significant upside that helped break up some potentially near term bearish
patterns.
It would appear that the while there is concern about selling, indeed GS on
Friday again issued a downside warning for SP500, old habits are hard to
give up. That would be particularly true it would appear after almost 8
years of Fed market coddling, printing trillions of dollars to inflate
financial assets to generate a 'wealth effect' in individuals and instill
'animal spirits' in the economy. Yes the middle class has dropped below 50%
and capital investment in the US is still at recession levels, but look at
that unemployment rate and look at that 5.2% wage growth! Who cares if
there are still 94M working aged people out of the workforce thus pushing
the rate lower and the wage increase was due simply changing the way they
count wages and income. In a country that lives by headlines and sound
bites all you need to do is make the assertion and quote unsupported 'facts'
and it must be true.
Well, there I go again. Anyway, the market was in prime position to sell
off but even with the negative views by the big money, indeed maybe because
of it, the indices are trying to hang in and SOX and NASDAQ actually look
pretty strong after bouncing off their 50 day MA's.
Certainly the Wednesday FOMC meeting is playing a role. Sellers have tried
to enter the market of late, particularly the prior Friday. A Fed that
likely won't raise rates acts as a counterweight to that downside pressure,
keeping the indices from totally selling off.
Frankly with the Fed likely to keep rates steady thanks to a crappy retail
sales report Thursday. Even the hotter CPI Friday with a core reading of
2.3%, now 10 months over the presumed 'speed limit' of 2.0% likely won't act
to give Yellen pause. As Brainard said on Monday, better to overshoot on
the inflation than to have premature tightening.
With the Fed likely to keep rates the same (and that is just based upon the
numbers not really pushing hard upside; the Fed could always 'surprise' the
market though I don't think Yellen has that in her) if there is any downside
between now and the meeting, that might be the downside's last hurrah until
the market gets used to the Fed decision and then has to start thinking
about what is next.
Given that, if there is downside to start the week we let the downside
positions work as far as they will then, hopefully after sharp early week
drop, we can close them in preparation for upside. Heck, if there is sharp
downside that is all the more reason the Fed does not hike as it has to give
deference to the markets of course.
Anyway, we will see if we can get some downside in better position to take
at least some profits next week and then prep in the event there is upside
in some short covering just before the FOMC decision or after a 'no change'
rate hike verdict.
NEWS/ECONOMY
August CPI: 0.2% VS 0.1 VS 0.0. Year/year: 1.1%
Core CPI: 0.3% vs 0.2% vs 0.1%. Year/year: 2.3% Highest core since 9/2008
(2.5%)
10 months of core CPI > 2%
Household wealth jumps but has the same issues as the wage increase.
Household wealth hits a record $89T, but there is a but. A big but. 50% of
US households own just 1% of the wealth, down from 3% in 1989. And sadly,
the poor are even more in debt.
What this means is what we already knew: the wealthiest captures the lion's
share of the wealth gains. That naturally follows from the middle class
falling below 50% this past year for the first time since becoming the
majority. It is a no brainer. The administration painted rosy scenario
last week but failed to mention the really nasty details of all of this
prosperity, the plight of the middle class being one of those inconvenient
truths.
GS: Cuts its outlook on SP500 and US bonds in its most recent bearish call.
DB: DOJ wants $14B fine for DB' involvement in the 2005 - 2007 mortgage
underwriting.
Once again the DOJ operates a shakedown when the government wants more $
Irony: the banks were just doing the government's bidding in getting
mortgages in the hands of people whose finances simply could not afford
them. Bush administration started it then got cold feet, warning re Freddie
Mac and Fannie Mae insolvency, but then the Congress picked up the torch
with Bernie Frank and Schumer threatening banks with hellish audits if they
did not make these loans available. So, the banks stepped in, gladly
underwriting these and knowing they could sell them to the US. A very
incestuous setup and all have unclean hands.
BOJ: Abe advisor says the "positive aspects of negative rates are very big."
For who? Certainly not for the populace. Only profligate, spendthrift
governments like negative rates. Just who are they serving? If that is a
question that needs to be asked these days: government serves government.
INTC: INTC raises its Q3 guidance.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
To view charts, click on link or paste URL into browser.
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
SOX: Bounced off the 50 day MA tests, overcoming any notion of weakness.
Friday SOX moved higher to near the early September peak then backed off.
Trended up the 10 day EMA, needed a test, tested the 50 day, rebounded back
over the 10 day EMA. Thus far still a pretty normal test in an ongoing
uptrend.
NASDAQ: Looked somewhat iffy but managed a recovery over the 50 day EMA and
posted a solid upside break Thursday, taking the day off Friday. Nice
recovery, and with SOX leading NASDAQ has improved its look.
RUTX: Held near the 50 day MA's in the selling, bounced modestly Thursday.
RUTX remains in solid position to move higher after it too trended up the 10
day EMA and has come back to test the 50 day. Now it shows if it can bounce
a la SOX.
SP400: The midcaps fell off their 10 day EMA uptrend as well but unlike SOX
have not recovered. Of course the midcaps did not hold the 50 day MA's so
they have more resistance to deal with and right now are not dealing with
it.
SP500: Broke lower two Fridays back and have worked laterally since below
the 50 day MA's. Working laterally, trying to hang on. Has to show it can
do so, and of course a continued compliant Fed will help SP500 make a
bounce.
DJ30: Same action as SP500, moving laterally below the 50 day MA's and
below the July to early September lateral range.
LEADERSHIP
Big Names: Solid week overall. AAPL led with gaps and rallies past the
April prior high. FB trended up the 20 day EMA; not a big move but still
in the uptrend. AMZN held the 50 day EMA and bounced Friday so we
reluctantly closed it. NFLX bounced nicely Friday back to the 200 day SMA.
GOOG held the 50 day MA and is trying to move, just has not done so yet.
Biotech: Many look ready to move up out of bases formed post downtrend. We
will see if they can join in more to the upside. AMGN, AGEN have provided
good leadership. Many others are trying the same and this weekend we have a
lot on the report.
Chips: Big week for the AAPL related chips, e.g. SWKS, AVGO. Others look
ready to move as well, e.g. LSCC. MRVL may give us an entry this week as
well.
Financial: Struggled into Friday, factoring in that the Fed just may not
hike rates. C fell below recent lows while JPM faded to the 50 day EMA. MS
holding up well at the 20 day EMA.
Oil: Very mixed. Friday many oil stocks gapped lower, e.g. GPOR, COG.
CWEI, however, had another great week. APC tested near the 50 day MA and
bounced Friday. Very mixed.
Retail: Perked up nicely, e.g. JWN. Overall retail has some very resolute
stocks evne though some are selling off.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -5.12 points (-0.1%) to close at 5244.57
Volume: 2.728B (+43.58%)
Up Volume: 1.15B (-410M)
Down Volume: 1.84B (+1.478B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.17 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.67 to 1
New Highs: 83 (+12)
New Lows: 49 (+6)
S&P
Stats: -8.1 points (-0.38%) to close at 2139.16
NYSE Volume: 2B (+138.92%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.78 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.03 to 1
New Highs: 44 (-13)
New Lows: 28 (+1)
DJ30
Stats: -88.68 points (-0.49%) to close at 18123.8
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 15.37; -0.93
VXN: 15.14; -1.25
VXO: 14.8; -0.71
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; +0.16
Nine 1.0+ Readings in 3 weeks, 5 of 8 sessions over 1.0.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls and bears go different ways with bulls less bullish
and bears less bearish. Bulls are falling nicely off the 56.7% high hit on
this round that was enough to start at least some selling. The threshold
seems to get lower as this rally continues. Bears were strange, falling as
the market struggled.
Bulls: 49.0 versus 52.5
Bears: 22.6 versus 22.8
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 49.0 versus 52.5
52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus
53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5%
versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
versus 40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus
43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7%
versus 26.5%
Bears: 22.6 versus 22.8
22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus
21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2%
versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus
21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus
28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7%
versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.698% versus 1.70%. Rough week continuing downside
though Friday saw a bit of a rebound. Broke lower for sure.
Historical: 1.70% versus 1.698% versus 1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67%
versus 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54% versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus
1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56%
versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus
1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.51% versus 1.54% versus 1.59%
versus 1.585% versus 1.503% versus 1.54% versus 1.558% versus 1.51% versus
1.46% versus 1.50%
EUR/USD: 1.1155 versus 1.12444. Euro bombed lower through the 50 and 200
day SMA, back to the lows from late August. Wow. Looked pretty solid for a
bounce higher.
Historical: 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335 versus
1.12318 versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545 versus
1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949 versus
1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251 versus
1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus 1.11636 versus
1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus 1.10882
USD/JPY: 102.280 versus 102.086. Unlike versus the euro, dollar was mostly
steady versus yen on the week.
Historical: 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus
101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus
101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus
102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus
100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843 versus 100.529 versus 100.953 versus
101.308 versus 101.864
Oil: 43.03, -0.88. Testing the low from two weeks back. Will see if it can
find some bounce here.
Gold: 1310.20, -7.80. Selling back to the late August low as gold tries to
hold its 3 month trading range.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5244.57
Resistance:
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016
Support:
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 5150
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4876
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2139.16
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 2154
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2059
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,222.15
Resistance:
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,288 from March 2015
The 50 day EMA at 18,310
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
The 200 day SMA at 17,574
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
September 16 - Friday
CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior (no
revisions)
Core CPI, August (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior (no
revisions)
Mich Sentiment, September (10:00): 89.8 actual versus 91.5 expected, 89.8
prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, July (16:00): $103.9B actual versus -$0.5B prior
(revised from -$3.6B)
September 19 - Monday
NAHB Housing Market , September (10:00): 59 expected, 60 prior
September 20 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, August (8:30): 1186K expected, 1211K prior
Building Permits, August (8:30): 1160K expected, 1152K prior
September 21 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/17 (7:00): 4.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 09/17 (10:30): -0.559M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, September (14:00): 0.375% expected, 0.375% prior
September 22 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/17 (8:30): 262K expected, 260K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/10 (8:30): 2143K prior
FHFA Housing Price I, July (9:00): 0.2% prior
Existing Home Sales, August (10:00): 5.50M expected, 5.39M prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 09/17 (10:30): 62 bcf prior
End part 1 of 3
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Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: AMZN; CX
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Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
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links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
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of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks status quo on expiration and ahead of FOMC week.
- SOX, NASDAQ leading and in decent shape. SP500, DJ30 just cannot decide.
- CPI year/year core 2+% again, but this 'speed limit' won't limit the Fed.
- The Fed versus the bears. 8 year old habits are hard to break.
Day to day, back and forth volatility continued into Friday, the September
expiration. Volume shot higher as the stocks indices struggled, but the
losses were not severe. Indeed, SOX was positive until the very session end
when some weakness hit again and took it lower with the other indices.
SP500 -8.10, -0.38%
DJ30 -88.68, -0.49%
NASDAQ -5.12, -0.10%
RUTX -0.18%
SP400 -0.51%
SOX -0.03%
VOLUME: NYSE +140%, NASDAQ +44%. Big expiration volume.
A/D: NYSE -1.8:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1
SOX and NASDAQ were the clear leading indices last week as they posted
significant upside that helped break up some potentially near term bearish
patterns.
It would appear that the while there is concern about selling, indeed GS on
Friday again issued a downside warning for SP500, old habits are hard to
give up. That would be particularly true it would appear after almost 8
years of Fed market coddling, printing trillions of dollars to inflate
financial assets to generate a 'wealth effect' in individuals and instill
'animal spirits' in the economy. Yes the middle class has dropped below 50%
and capital investment in the US is still at recession levels, but look at
that unemployment rate and look at that 5.2% wage growth! Who cares if
there are still 94M working aged people out of the workforce thus pushing
the rate lower and the wage increase was due simply changing the way they
count wages and income. In a country that lives by headlines and sound
bites all you need to do is make the assertion and quote unsupported 'facts'
and it must be true.
Well, there I go again. Anyway, the market was in prime position to sell
off but even with the negative views by the big money, indeed maybe because
of it, the indices are trying to hang in and SOX and NASDAQ actually look
pretty strong after bouncing off their 50 day MA's.
Certainly the Wednesday FOMC meeting is playing a role. Sellers have tried
to enter the market of late, particularly the prior Friday. A Fed that
likely won't raise rates acts as a counterweight to that downside pressure,
keeping the indices from totally selling off.
Frankly with the Fed likely to keep rates steady thanks to a crappy retail
sales report Thursday. Even the hotter CPI Friday with a core reading of
2.3%, now 10 months over the presumed 'speed limit' of 2.0% likely won't act
to give Yellen pause. As Brainard said on Monday, better to overshoot on
the inflation than to have premature tightening.
With the Fed likely to keep rates the same (and that is just based upon the
numbers not really pushing hard upside; the Fed could always 'surprise' the
market though I don't think Yellen has that in her) if there is any downside
between now and the meeting, that might be the downside's last hurrah until
the market gets used to the Fed decision and then has to start thinking
about what is next.
Given that, if there is downside to start the week we let the downside
positions work as far as they will then, hopefully after sharp early week
drop, we can close them in preparation for upside. Heck, if there is sharp
downside that is all the more reason the Fed does not hike as it has to give
deference to the markets of course.
Anyway, we will see if we can get some downside in better position to take
at least some profits next week and then prep in the event there is upside
in some short covering just before the FOMC decision or after a 'no change'
rate hike verdict.
NEWS/ECONOMY
August CPI: 0.2% VS 0.1 VS 0.0. Year/year: 1.1%
Core CPI: 0.3% vs 0.2% vs 0.1%. Year/year: 2.3% Highest core since 9/2008
(2.5%)
10 months of core CPI > 2%
Household wealth jumps but has the same issues as the wage increase.
Household wealth hits a record $89T, but there is a but. A big but. 50% of
US households own just 1% of the wealth, down from 3% in 1989. And sadly,
the poor are even more in debt.
What this means is what we already knew: the wealthiest captures the lion's
share of the wealth gains. That naturally follows from the middle class
falling below 50% this past year for the first time since becoming the
majority. It is a no brainer. The administration painted rosy scenario
last week but failed to mention the really nasty details of all of this
prosperity, the plight of the middle class being one of those inconvenient
truths.
GS: Cuts its outlook on SP500 and US bonds in its most recent bearish call.
DB: DOJ wants $14B fine for DB' involvement in the 2005 - 2007 mortgage
underwriting.
Once again the DOJ operates a shakedown when the government wants more $
Irony: the banks were just doing the government's bidding in getting
mortgages in the hands of people whose finances simply could not afford
them. Bush administration started it then got cold feet, warning re Freddie
Mac and Fannie Mae insolvency, but then the Congress picked up the torch
with Bernie Frank and Schumer threatening banks with hellish audits if they
did not make these loans available. So, the banks stepped in, gladly
underwriting these and knowing they could sell them to the US. A very
incestuous setup and all have unclean hands.
BOJ: Abe advisor says the "positive aspects of negative rates are very big."
For who? Certainly not for the populace. Only profligate, spendthrift
governments like negative rates. Just who are they serving? If that is a
question that needs to be asked these days: government serves government.
INTC: INTC raises its Q3 guidance.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
To view charts, click on link or paste URL into browser.
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
SOX: Bounced off the 50 day MA tests, overcoming any notion of weakness.
Friday SOX moved higher to near the early September peak then backed off.
Trended up the 10 day EMA, needed a test, tested the 50 day, rebounded back
over the 10 day EMA. Thus far still a pretty normal test in an ongoing
uptrend.
NASDAQ: Looked somewhat iffy but managed a recovery over the 50 day EMA and
posted a solid upside break Thursday, taking the day off Friday. Nice
recovery, and with SOX leading NASDAQ has improved its look.
RUTX: Held near the 50 day MA's in the selling, bounced modestly Thursday.
RUTX remains in solid position to move higher after it too trended up the 10
day EMA and has come back to test the 50 day. Now it shows if it can bounce
a la SOX.
SP400: The midcaps fell off their 10 day EMA uptrend as well but unlike SOX
have not recovered. Of course the midcaps did not hold the 50 day MA's so
they have more resistance to deal with and right now are not dealing with
it.
SP500: Broke lower two Fridays back and have worked laterally since below
the 50 day MA's. Working laterally, trying to hang on. Has to show it can
do so, and of course a continued compliant Fed will help SP500 make a
bounce.
DJ30: Same action as SP500, moving laterally below the 50 day MA's and
below the July to early September lateral range.
LEADERSHIP
Big Names: Solid week overall. AAPL led with gaps and rallies past the
April prior high. FB trended up the 20 day EMA; not a big move but still
in the uptrend. AMZN held the 50 day EMA and bounced Friday so we
reluctantly closed it. NFLX bounced nicely Friday back to the 200 day SMA.
GOOG held the 50 day MA and is trying to move, just has not done so yet.
Biotech: Many look ready to move up out of bases formed post downtrend. We
will see if they can join in more to the upside. AMGN, AGEN have provided
good leadership. Many others are trying the same and this weekend we have a
lot on the report.
Chips: Big week for the AAPL related chips, e.g. SWKS, AVGO. Others look
ready to move as well, e.g. LSCC. MRVL may give us an entry this week as
well.
Financial: Struggled into Friday, factoring in that the Fed just may not
hike rates. C fell below recent lows while JPM faded to the 50 day EMA. MS
holding up well at the 20 day EMA.
Oil: Very mixed. Friday many oil stocks gapped lower, e.g. GPOR, COG.
CWEI, however, had another great week. APC tested near the 50 day MA and
bounced Friday. Very mixed.
Retail: Perked up nicely, e.g. JWN. Overall retail has some very resolute
stocks evne though some are selling off.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -5.12 points (-0.1%) to close at 5244.57
Volume: 2.728B (+43.58%)
Up Volume: 1.15B (-410M)
Down Volume: 1.84B (+1.478B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.17 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.67 to 1
New Highs: 83 (+12)
New Lows: 49 (+6)
S&P
Stats: -8.1 points (-0.38%) to close at 2139.16
NYSE Volume: 2B (+138.92%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.78 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.03 to 1
New Highs: 44 (-13)
New Lows: 28 (+1)
DJ30
Stats: -88.68 points (-0.49%) to close at 18123.8
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 15.37; -0.93
VXN: 15.14; -1.25
VXO: 14.8; -0.71
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; +0.16
Nine 1.0+ Readings in 3 weeks, 5 of 8 sessions over 1.0.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls and bears go different ways with bulls less bullish
and bears less bearish. Bulls are falling nicely off the 56.7% high hit on
this round that was enough to start at least some selling. The threshold
seems to get lower as this rally continues. Bears were strange, falling as
the market struggled.
Bulls: 49.0 versus 52.5
Bears: 22.6 versus 22.8
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 49.0 versus 52.5
52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus
53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5%
versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
versus 40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus
43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7%
versus 26.5%
Bears: 22.6 versus 22.8
22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus
21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2%
versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus
21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus
28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7%
versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.698% versus 1.70%. Rough week continuing downside
though Friday saw a bit of a rebound. Broke lower for sure.
Historical: 1.70% versus 1.698% versus 1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67%
versus 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54% versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus
1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56%
versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus
1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.51% versus 1.54% versus 1.59%
versus 1.585% versus 1.503% versus 1.54% versus 1.558% versus 1.51% versus
1.46% versus 1.50%
EUR/USD: 1.1155 versus 1.12444. Euro bombed lower through the 50 and 200
day SMA, back to the lows from late August. Wow. Looked pretty solid for a
bounce higher.
Historical: 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335 versus
1.12318 versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545 versus
1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949 versus
1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251 versus
1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus 1.11636 versus
1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus 1.10882
USD/JPY: 102.280 versus 102.086. Unlike versus the euro, dollar was mostly
steady versus yen on the week.
Historical: 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus
101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus
101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus
102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus
100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843 versus 100.529 versus 100.953 versus
101.308 versus 101.864
Oil: 43.03, -0.88. Testing the low from two weeks back. Will see if it can
find some bounce here.
Gold: 1310.20, -7.80. Selling back to the late August low as gold tries to
hold its 3 month trading range.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5244.57
Resistance:
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016
Support:
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 5150
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4876
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2139.16
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 2154
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2059
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,222.15
Resistance:
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,288 from March 2015
The 50 day EMA at 18,310
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
The 200 day SMA at 17,574
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
September 16 - Friday
CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior (no
revisions)
Core CPI, August (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior (no
revisions)
Mich Sentiment, September (10:00): 89.8 actual versus 91.5 expected, 89.8
prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, July (16:00): $103.9B actual versus -$0.5B prior
(revised from -$3.6B)
September 19 - Monday
NAHB Housing Market , September (10:00): 59 expected, 60 prior
September 20 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, August (8:30): 1186K expected, 1211K prior
Building Permits, August (8:30): 1160K expected, 1152K prior
September 21 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/17 (7:00): 4.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 09/17 (10:30): -0.559M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, September (14:00): 0.375% expected, 0.375% prior
September 22 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/17 (8:30): 262K expected, 260K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/10 (8:30): 2143K prior
FHFA Housing Price I, July (9:00): 0.2% prior
Existing Home Sales, August (10:00): 5.50M expected, 5.39M prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 09/17 (10:30): 62 bcf prior
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Saturday, September 10, 2016
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 9-10-16
* * * *
9/10/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: AVGO; STX
Entry alerts: AMZN; HAL
Trailing stops: NFLX; NSC; P; UNP
Stop alerts: AMZN; BIIB; HAR; GOOG; SCHN
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- The feared selling ignites Friday after the ECB sinks in, a Fed dove talks
rate hikes.
- Volume surges, breadth is massively negative, but new lows are light, VIX
has a long way to go. Hard to bottom right after you put in a top.
- Have to respect that kind of selling and shift focus. Upside becomes
selling opportunity.
Perhaps a delayed reaction to Mario Draghi and the ECB failing to discuss
equity purchases, perhaps a reaction to a purported dove Fed voting member
(Rosengren) arguing that rate hikes are needed to prevent economic damage.
With talk of two hikes this year by some esteemed Fed members, that
certainly means September is on the menu. Perhaps those comments on top of
a less than great economy were more than investors could bear.
Whatever the ultimate reason the market went ahead and broke lower. A hard
break lower. SP500, DJ30, SP400 all crashed through their 50 day MA's while
SOX, NASDAQ and RUTX dove to close at their 50 day MA's.
SP500 -53.49, -2.45%
NASDAQ -133.57, -2.54%
DJ30 -394.46, -2.13%
SP400 -2.92%
RUTX -3.11%
SOX -3.66%
VOLUME: NYSE +31%, NASDAQ +18%. Both exchanges sold on impressive jumps in
volume coming in well above average. Low volume advances can get dropped
like bags of dirt when the sellers show up.
A/D: NYSE -17:1. NASDAQ -6:1. One downside session and the downside
breadth is at an extreme level. -6:1 is extreme, -10:1 is typically market
turning. -17:1 is so bad it is almost meaningless, like getting blown out
in a basketball game by 50 points. Just forget about it and go on to the
next one. By itself the massively negative breadth doesn't mean a whole
lot. Just coming off new highs none of the other indicators are nearly that
extreme.
VIX: +40%, but even that move took it just to 17.50.
New lows: Barely moving thus far given the indices at or near highs.
As you can see, the indicators are a mixed bag with some massively negative,
others not. Until they all line up together they mean little individually.
Not a lot of magic or mystery to this move. The market was still producing
up and coming leadership as noted last weekend, leadership turning the
corner after long downtrends. Many of those are actually still in good
shape even after Friday.
The gutting occurred in the big names and in the stocks that have already
enjoyed the biggest runs. GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, MMM, UTX, HD, NVDA -- stocks
that hit or nearly hit new highs getting turned over.
The question is going to be how far they fall, whether this is the start of
the feared plunge or just a violent shakeout in an otherwise continuing move
higher.
Given the virulence of the decline, even if it was on a Friday and a lot of
strange moves occur on Fridays, you have to give the move its due. For us
that means not assuming it is just a drop in a trend higher but the start of
some selling whose end is uncertain. The breaks were violent enough to put
the uptrends in question.
Thus we closed many positions that were not holding their trends. More than
a few held and we let them work; after Friday bombs if the move was just an
overreaction you can get a rebound early week to at least get a better exit
point. Outside of that, we don't want to count on Friday being a one-off
event. The strength of the drop has to be respected.
We were fortunate enough to get to take some gain, banking a nice profit on
STX as it jumped early, taking some solid downside gain on the AVGO
position. Wish we had taken more from other positions earlier in the week
but the trend was working well. Closed many positions with trailing stops
and managed to open some downside positions.
So we manage the remaining upside to see if they continue their trends and
patterns, if not we see if we can get good exit points. Any bounce that
fails is a better exit point and also a better entry point for downside
positions.
Again, with the force of the selling you have to respect the downside. We
were already somewhat defensive in that we were not letting upside plays
stray far before we closed them and we were moving into some downside
positions. Wish we had done more as noted above, but the shift was underway.
For now we are looking for downside opportunity and limiting damage
regarding upside positions.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
Sharp breaks through near support with 2+% to 3+% losses on the indices.
The NYSE large caps and midcaps blew up the 50 day MA's, the small caps,
NASDAQ and SOX fell to those levels.
SP500: Gave up its 50 day MA's early session, gave up the July/September
trading range, gave up the 2015 prior all-time high. Just over some support
at 2120-2100, but with this kind of drop it is more of seeing where it
finally shows some support.
DJ30: Diving below the 2 month trading range and giving up the 2015 prior
all-time high, already at the mid-April high.
SP400: Gapped lower, broke the 50 day MA's, undercut the late July low,
landing on the early June high. Nice uptrend flipped in a session.
NASDAQ: NASDAQ gapped upside to start August on its way to higher highs.
After hitting a higher high Wednesday, Friday NASDAQ gapped lower and sold
through the early August upside gap. As with the other large cap indices,
NASDAQ broke below its new high range all in one move. Closed just below
the 50 day MA's. A little better positioning than the other large cap
indices, but no less virulent a selloff.
RUTX: From a higher recovery high to right back to where the move of the
last 5 weeks started from. That puts RUTX at the 50 day EMA that are
coincident with the bottom of the summer 2015 range that holds RUTX'
all-time high.
SOX: Gapped through the 20 day EMA and sold to just above the 50 day EMA.
Of all the indices, a more 'normal' looking drop to a key support level.
LEADERSHIP
Big Names: FB folded off of the strong move through Wednesday. AAPL, already
heading lower, broke the 50 day MA's. AMZN gapped and sold to the late
August lows, still holding over the 50 day MA's. NFLX fell hard away from
the 200 day SMA test. GOOG gapped and sold to the 50 day EMA. Not good.
Chips: Not all carnage. MRVL sold to the 20 day EMA, recovering to hold
it. MU is holding the 10 day EMA. Others are not as well off. AMD undercut
the 50 day MA's. XLNX is selling back toward the 50 day from its high.
Ditto SLAB. AVGO dove below the 50 day MA's, landing us a nice gain.
Financial: Even as interest rates jumped higher the financials struggled,
victims of the strong overall market decline. C gapped and faded but still
holds over the 20 day EMA. JPM is testing its 20 day EMA. GS surged then
reversed to the 10 day EMA. Struggled but fared better than most.
Oil: Oil gave back part of its big Thursday move, but held well enough.
CWEI did the same. APC gave back just a bit while APA put in a gain. AXAS
is testing a great move higher. WMB lost just a bit of ground. Others are
not so pretty, e.g. PTEN.
Industrial equipment: Started breaking down. CAT, TEX were fine but put in
strong breaks lower. CMI tested and is heading lower.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -133.57 points (-2.54%) to close at 5125.91
Volume: 2.135B (+17.9%)
Up Volume: 195.16M (-596.07M)
Down Volume: 2.01B (+990M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 5.98 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.02 to 1
New Highs: 45 (-106)
New Lows: 47 (+14)
S&P
Stats: -53.49 points (-2.45%) to close at 2127.81
NYSE Volume: 1.1B (+31.06%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 17.16 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.2 to 1
New Highs: 68 (-165)
New Lows: 24 (+15)
DJ30
Stats: -394.46 points (-2.13%) to close at 18085.45
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 17.5; +17.5. VIX jumps 40% but is still only at 17. 30 starts getting
interesting, 40+ is more important when considering a recovery.
VXN: 17.96; +17.96
VXO: 17.36; +17.36
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.18; +1.18
Six 1.0+ Readings in 3 weeks. Likely still several more of these to come.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls are backing off nicely without hitting near 60 and
bears are climbing. Not bad action for the rally to continue.
Bulls: 52.5 versus 55.9
Bears: 22.8 versus 20.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 52.5 versus 55.9
55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus
54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9%
versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2%
versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus
47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5%
Bears: 22.8 versus 20.6
20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus
23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5%
versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7
versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus
27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8%
versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.67% versus 1.61%. After selling through the 50 day EMA
Thursday, TLT gapped sharply lower and through the late June upside gap.
Bonds broke this past week.
Historical: 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54% versus 1.601% versus 1.57%
versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus 1.58% versus
1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55% versus 1.57%
versus 1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.51% versus 1.54% versus
1.59% versus 1.585% versus 1.503% versus 1.54% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%
versus 1.46% versus 1.50% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.57% versus
1.56% versus 1.558% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.59% versus 1.58%
versus 1.53% versus 1.47%
EUR/USD: 1.12318 versus 1.12661
Historical: 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545 versus
1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949 versus
1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251 versus
1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus 1.11636 versus
1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus 1.10882 versus
1.1130 versus 1.1148 versus 1.1219 versus 1.1164 versus 1.1173 versus
1.10806
USD/JPY: 102.685 versus 102.439. After a massive Tuesday drop, the dollar
recovered lost ground back up to the 50 day MA's, but that still keeps it in
the downtrend channel.
Historical: 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus 101.412 versus
103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus 102.160 versus
101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus 100.297 versus
100.21 versus 99.843 versus 100.529 versus 100.953 versus 101.308 versus
101.864 versus 101.23 versus 101.857 versus 102.356 versus 101.832 versus
101.178 versus 101.256 versus 101.09 versus 102.599 versus 102.045 versus
104.679 versus 105.98 versus 104.731 versus 105.76 versus 106.05
Oil: 45.99, -1.74. Big recovery Tuesday through Thursday. Friday oil
tested that move, coming back to close just over the 50 day SMA.
Gold: 1334.90, -7.10. Big move through Tuesday then fading much of that
move Wednesday to Friday. Hanging in at some support . . . for now. If the
Fed hikes and if the ECB does not expand its QE, gold loses some of its
support.
MONDAY
As noted in the Market Overview, you have to respect the power of the
downside. Even if there is a reflex bounce early next week it has to show
it can hold in the face of that selling.
For now we are using a bounce to let upside plays holding their trends
continue working, hopefully to take some gain. Others that are more
problematic we use a bounce to close.
For new positions, of course we will look at some upside as there are some
still very good patterns and on the circumstance the market shakes off this
downside day and continues back to trending higher. Downside of course is
very important, but we would prefer a rebound to set up better entry points
versus where the closed Friday. Some are not oversold and can be entered
on further selling, but overall, a little bounce is a better setup to enter.
Watching leadership groups offers clues, e.g. chips, financial, oil, Chinese
stocks. A market has to have leadership to move higher, and if more of the
leadership groups reverse trends or break patterns then the upside's chance
of reasserting itself diminish.
Again, you have to respect the sharp selling, and use the moves next week to
set up for the next move.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5125.91
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 5138
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday all-time high
Support:
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4874
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2127.81
Resistance:
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2157
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2057
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,089.69
Resistance:
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,288 from March 2015
The 50 day EMA at 18,345
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
The 200 day SMA at 17,566
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
September 9 - Friday
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.3%
prior (no revisions)
September 13 - Tuesday
Treasury Budget, August (14:00): -$64.4B prior
September 14 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/10 (7:00): 0.9% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., August (8:30): 0.3% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, August (8:30): 0.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 09/10 (10:30): -14.513M prior
September 15 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/10 (8:30): 263K expected, 259K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/03 (8:30): 2144K prior
Retail Sales, August (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.3% prior
PPI, August (8:30): 0.1% expected, -0.4% prior
Core PPI, August (8:30): 0.1% expected, -0.3% prior
Philadelphia Fed, September (8:30): 0.0 expected, 2.0 prior
Current Account Balance, Q2 (8:30): -$122.8B expected, -$124.7B prior
Empire Manufacturing, September (8:30): 0.0 expected, -4.2 prior
Industrial Production, August (9:15): -0.3% expected, 0.7% prior
Capacity Utilization, August (9:15): 75.7% expected, 75.9% prior
Business Inventories, July (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 09/10 (10:30): 36 bcf prior
September 16 - Friday
CPI, August (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Core CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Mich Sentiment, September (10:00): 91.5 expected, 89.8 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, July (16:00): -$3.6B prior
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
9/10/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: AVGO; STX
Entry alerts: AMZN; HAL
Trailing stops: NFLX; NSC; P; UNP
Stop alerts: AMZN; BIIB; HAR; GOOG; SCHN
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- The feared selling ignites Friday after the ECB sinks in, a Fed dove talks
rate hikes.
- Volume surges, breadth is massively negative, but new lows are light, VIX
has a long way to go. Hard to bottom right after you put in a top.
- Have to respect that kind of selling and shift focus. Upside becomes
selling opportunity.
Perhaps a delayed reaction to Mario Draghi and the ECB failing to discuss
equity purchases, perhaps a reaction to a purported dove Fed voting member
(Rosengren) arguing that rate hikes are needed to prevent economic damage.
With talk of two hikes this year by some esteemed Fed members, that
certainly means September is on the menu. Perhaps those comments on top of
a less than great economy were more than investors could bear.
Whatever the ultimate reason the market went ahead and broke lower. A hard
break lower. SP500, DJ30, SP400 all crashed through their 50 day MA's while
SOX, NASDAQ and RUTX dove to close at their 50 day MA's.
SP500 -53.49, -2.45%
NASDAQ -133.57, -2.54%
DJ30 -394.46, -2.13%
SP400 -2.92%
RUTX -3.11%
SOX -3.66%
VOLUME: NYSE +31%, NASDAQ +18%. Both exchanges sold on impressive jumps in
volume coming in well above average. Low volume advances can get dropped
like bags of dirt when the sellers show up.
A/D: NYSE -17:1. NASDAQ -6:1. One downside session and the downside
breadth is at an extreme level. -6:1 is extreme, -10:1 is typically market
turning. -17:1 is so bad it is almost meaningless, like getting blown out
in a basketball game by 50 points. Just forget about it and go on to the
next one. By itself the massively negative breadth doesn't mean a whole
lot. Just coming off new highs none of the other indicators are nearly that
extreme.
VIX: +40%, but even that move took it just to 17.50.
New lows: Barely moving thus far given the indices at or near highs.
As you can see, the indicators are a mixed bag with some massively negative,
others not. Until they all line up together they mean little individually.
Not a lot of magic or mystery to this move. The market was still producing
up and coming leadership as noted last weekend, leadership turning the
corner after long downtrends. Many of those are actually still in good
shape even after Friday.
The gutting occurred in the big names and in the stocks that have already
enjoyed the biggest runs. GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, MMM, UTX, HD, NVDA -- stocks
that hit or nearly hit new highs getting turned over.
The question is going to be how far they fall, whether this is the start of
the feared plunge or just a violent shakeout in an otherwise continuing move
higher.
Given the virulence of the decline, even if it was on a Friday and a lot of
strange moves occur on Fridays, you have to give the move its due. For us
that means not assuming it is just a drop in a trend higher but the start of
some selling whose end is uncertain. The breaks were violent enough to put
the uptrends in question.
Thus we closed many positions that were not holding their trends. More than
a few held and we let them work; after Friday bombs if the move was just an
overreaction you can get a rebound early week to at least get a better exit
point. Outside of that, we don't want to count on Friday being a one-off
event. The strength of the drop has to be respected.
We were fortunate enough to get to take some gain, banking a nice profit on
STX as it jumped early, taking some solid downside gain on the AVGO
position. Wish we had taken more from other positions earlier in the week
but the trend was working well. Closed many positions with trailing stops
and managed to open some downside positions.
So we manage the remaining upside to see if they continue their trends and
patterns, if not we see if we can get good exit points. Any bounce that
fails is a better exit point and also a better entry point for downside
positions.
Again, with the force of the selling you have to respect the downside. We
were already somewhat defensive in that we were not letting upside plays
stray far before we closed them and we were moving into some downside
positions. Wish we had done more as noted above, but the shift was underway.
For now we are looking for downside opportunity and limiting damage
regarding upside positions.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
Sharp breaks through near support with 2+% to 3+% losses on the indices.
The NYSE large caps and midcaps blew up the 50 day MA's, the small caps,
NASDAQ and SOX fell to those levels.
SP500: Gave up its 50 day MA's early session, gave up the July/September
trading range, gave up the 2015 prior all-time high. Just over some support
at 2120-2100, but with this kind of drop it is more of seeing where it
finally shows some support.
DJ30: Diving below the 2 month trading range and giving up the 2015 prior
all-time high, already at the mid-April high.
SP400: Gapped lower, broke the 50 day MA's, undercut the late July low,
landing on the early June high. Nice uptrend flipped in a session.
NASDAQ: NASDAQ gapped upside to start August on its way to higher highs.
After hitting a higher high Wednesday, Friday NASDAQ gapped lower and sold
through the early August upside gap. As with the other large cap indices,
NASDAQ broke below its new high range all in one move. Closed just below
the 50 day MA's. A little better positioning than the other large cap
indices, but no less virulent a selloff.
RUTX: From a higher recovery high to right back to where the move of the
last 5 weeks started from. That puts RUTX at the 50 day EMA that are
coincident with the bottom of the summer 2015 range that holds RUTX'
all-time high.
SOX: Gapped through the 20 day EMA and sold to just above the 50 day EMA.
Of all the indices, a more 'normal' looking drop to a key support level.
LEADERSHIP
Big Names: FB folded off of the strong move through Wednesday. AAPL, already
heading lower, broke the 50 day MA's. AMZN gapped and sold to the late
August lows, still holding over the 50 day MA's. NFLX fell hard away from
the 200 day SMA test. GOOG gapped and sold to the 50 day EMA. Not good.
Chips: Not all carnage. MRVL sold to the 20 day EMA, recovering to hold
it. MU is holding the 10 day EMA. Others are not as well off. AMD undercut
the 50 day MA's. XLNX is selling back toward the 50 day from its high.
Ditto SLAB. AVGO dove below the 50 day MA's, landing us a nice gain.
Financial: Even as interest rates jumped higher the financials struggled,
victims of the strong overall market decline. C gapped and faded but still
holds over the 20 day EMA. JPM is testing its 20 day EMA. GS surged then
reversed to the 10 day EMA. Struggled but fared better than most.
Oil: Oil gave back part of its big Thursday move, but held well enough.
CWEI did the same. APC gave back just a bit while APA put in a gain. AXAS
is testing a great move higher. WMB lost just a bit of ground. Others are
not so pretty, e.g. PTEN.
Industrial equipment: Started breaking down. CAT, TEX were fine but put in
strong breaks lower. CMI tested and is heading lower.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -133.57 points (-2.54%) to close at 5125.91
Volume: 2.135B (+17.9%)
Up Volume: 195.16M (-596.07M)
Down Volume: 2.01B (+990M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 5.98 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.02 to 1
New Highs: 45 (-106)
New Lows: 47 (+14)
S&P
Stats: -53.49 points (-2.45%) to close at 2127.81
NYSE Volume: 1.1B (+31.06%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 17.16 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.2 to 1
New Highs: 68 (-165)
New Lows: 24 (+15)
DJ30
Stats: -394.46 points (-2.13%) to close at 18085.45
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 17.5; +17.5. VIX jumps 40% but is still only at 17. 30 starts getting
interesting, 40+ is more important when considering a recovery.
VXN: 17.96; +17.96
VXO: 17.36; +17.36
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.18; +1.18
Six 1.0+ Readings in 3 weeks. Likely still several more of these to come.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls are backing off nicely without hitting near 60 and
bears are climbing. Not bad action for the rally to continue.
Bulls: 52.5 versus 55.9
Bears: 22.8 versus 20.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 52.5 versus 55.9
55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus
54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9%
versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2%
versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus
47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5%
Bears: 22.8 versus 20.6
20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus
23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5%
versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7
versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus
27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8%
versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.67% versus 1.61%. After selling through the 50 day EMA
Thursday, TLT gapped sharply lower and through the late June upside gap.
Bonds broke this past week.
Historical: 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54% versus 1.601% versus 1.57%
versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus 1.58% versus
1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55% versus 1.57%
versus 1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.51% versus 1.54% versus
1.59% versus 1.585% versus 1.503% versus 1.54% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%
versus 1.46% versus 1.50% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.57% versus
1.56% versus 1.558% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.59% versus 1.58%
versus 1.53% versus 1.47%
EUR/USD: 1.12318 versus 1.12661
Historical: 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545 versus
1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949 versus
1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251 versus
1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus 1.11636 versus
1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus 1.10882 versus
1.1130 versus 1.1148 versus 1.1219 versus 1.1164 versus 1.1173 versus
1.10806
USD/JPY: 102.685 versus 102.439. After a massive Tuesday drop, the dollar
recovered lost ground back up to the 50 day MA's, but that still keeps it in
the downtrend channel.
Historical: 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus 101.412 versus
103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus 102.160 versus
101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus 100.297 versus
100.21 versus 99.843 versus 100.529 versus 100.953 versus 101.308 versus
101.864 versus 101.23 versus 101.857 versus 102.356 versus 101.832 versus
101.178 versus 101.256 versus 101.09 versus 102.599 versus 102.045 versus
104.679 versus 105.98 versus 104.731 versus 105.76 versus 106.05
Oil: 45.99, -1.74. Big recovery Tuesday through Thursday. Friday oil
tested that move, coming back to close just over the 50 day SMA.
Gold: 1334.90, -7.10. Big move through Tuesday then fading much of that
move Wednesday to Friday. Hanging in at some support . . . for now. If the
Fed hikes and if the ECB does not expand its QE, gold loses some of its
support.
MONDAY
As noted in the Market Overview, you have to respect the power of the
downside. Even if there is a reflex bounce early next week it has to show
it can hold in the face of that selling.
For now we are using a bounce to let upside plays holding their trends
continue working, hopefully to take some gain. Others that are more
problematic we use a bounce to close.
For new positions, of course we will look at some upside as there are some
still very good patterns and on the circumstance the market shakes off this
downside day and continues back to trending higher. Downside of course is
very important, but we would prefer a rebound to set up better entry points
versus where the closed Friday. Some are not oversold and can be entered
on further selling, but overall, a little bounce is a better setup to enter.
Watching leadership groups offers clues, e.g. chips, financial, oil, Chinese
stocks. A market has to have leadership to move higher, and if more of the
leadership groups reverse trends or break patterns then the upside's chance
of reasserting itself diminish.
Again, you have to respect the sharp selling, and use the moves next week to
set up for the next move.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5125.91
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 5138
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday all-time high
Support:
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4874
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2127.81
Resistance:
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2157
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2057
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,089.69
Resistance:
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,288 from March 2015
The 50 day EMA at 18,345
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
The 200 day SMA at 17,566
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
September 9 - Friday
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.3%
prior (no revisions)
September 13 - Tuesday
Treasury Budget, August (14:00): -$64.4B prior
September 14 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/10 (7:00): 0.9% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., August (8:30): 0.3% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, August (8:30): 0.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 09/10 (10:30): -14.513M prior
September 15 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/10 (8:30): 263K expected, 259K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/03 (8:30): 2144K prior
Retail Sales, August (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.3% prior
PPI, August (8:30): 0.1% expected, -0.4% prior
Core PPI, August (8:30): 0.1% expected, -0.3% prior
Philadelphia Fed, September (8:30): 0.0 expected, 2.0 prior
Current Account Balance, Q2 (8:30): -$122.8B expected, -$124.7B prior
Empire Manufacturing, September (8:30): 0.0 expected, -4.2 prior
Industrial Production, August (9:15): -0.3% expected, 0.7% prior
Capacity Utilization, August (9:15): 75.7% expected, 75.9% prior
Business Inventories, July (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 09/10 (10:30): 36 bcf prior
September 16 - Friday
CPI, August (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Core CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Mich Sentiment, September (10:00): 91.5 expected, 89.8 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, July (16:00): -$3.6B prior
End part 1 of 3
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Saturday, September 03, 2016
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 9-3-16
* * * *
9/3/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: AAPL; WMB
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
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Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEWS/ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- A sad Labor Day: jobs report shows the secular weakening of the American
jobs market.
- A confused session: bonds sell, stocks rally, gold rallies as jobs miss.
- SP400 posts a strong break upside. Can it avoid the session-after
clubbing?
- Tons of data absorbed and the modest trend holds, but no guarantees.
After a couple of better months of job creation in terms of the headline
numbers, August reverted more to the mean with 151K jobs created. Of
course, the underlying data was worse than the headlines with some very
telling numbers in terms of wages and hours worked. Suffice it to say those
internal numbers were not great and quite frankly match the list of weaker
data from the week ranging from Chicago PMI, pending home sales, and the ISM
manufacturing report. These were quite bad, and all of the hopeful 'wait
until next year' calls for the 3rd and 4th quarters to show an economic
pickup just won't cut it.
With the jobs miss and weak internals, stock futures jumped in something of
a bad news is good news reaction. Stocks started higher, rallied at the
open, peaking a half hour into the session, at least in terms of the large
cap indices. A fade to early afternoon cut the gains but a rebound the last
two hours recovered some lost ground. The big cap indices didn't get back
to session highs but they put in respectable gains.
The real action was in RUTX and SP500. Same action as the large cap indices
except they didn't dip as far intraday, and their afternoon recovery took
them to new session highs and to new rally highs. Impressive moves. NASDAQ
gapped to a doji at the top of its August range while SOX gapped higher but
closed more or less flat.
SP500 9.12, 0.42%
NASDAQ 22.69, 0.43%
DJ30 72.66, 0.39%
SP400 0.97%
RUTX 0.97%
SOX -0.17%
VOLUME: NYSE -3%, NASDAQ -6.5%
A/D: NYSE 4:1, NASDAQ 2.25:1. Blistering breadth as the small and midcaps
jumped to higher rally highs, SP400 to a new all-time high.
Low rates benefit, in theory, smaller cap stocks. Money they need to grow
is easier to come by so that makes growth easier. Of course we know that
banks such as WFC and its CEO go on CNBC and tout how small business
friendly they are, but we also know they are full of beans. I know bankers
at WFC on a personal basis and they tell me they are not writing any loans
for small businesses. No need to.
So, the theories are great, but reality is not. In the end, it is anyone's
guess as to what drove stocks higher Friday. Bond yields rose even as the
market supposedly priced in less chance of a rate hike in September and
December (falling to 22% from 36% and to 55% from 59%, respectively).
Financials, sensitive to rates, faded even as rates moved higher. Small and
midcaps rallied even as higher rates imply loans are harder to come by.
As Lucilla told her brother the emperor in 'Gladiator,' the mob is fickle.
The mob is fickle, brother -- Lucilla, 'Gladiator' (2000)
The end result Friday is no change. RUTX and SP400 are taking a hand at
leading higher, but you know what the market has done to indices that dared
to break to higher highs: shot them right back down the next session.
Indeed, despite the jobs report and the 'bad news works because the Fed may
be on hold longer' mindset, the stock indices did not race in the chosen
direction. That leaves NASDAQ at the top of its four week range along with
SP500 and DJ30 toiling in their lateral moves as well.
Perhaps the children along with SOX are the ones to lead the big indices
higher. There are still very good leadership patterns in the market
overall. If so, Friday was a good step to get that move started, but again,
those indices have to survive the attacks on their success when next week
comes around. Suffice it to say that Friday, while a positive upside
development, did not eliminate the possibility that declining MACD and lower
volume on these gains is indicating a top in the large cap indices. The
market is still in the same situation of having to show it can make the
break higher and make it stick.
NEWS/ECONOMY
And we were told Q3 would be better: a bad week for economic data.
Chicago PMI, August: 51.5 versus 54.5 expected versus 55.8 June. Sharp
drop.
ISM Index, August: 49.4 versus 52.2 expected versus 52.6 prior. Falling
back to contraction.
Productivity, Q2 Revised: -0.6% versus -0.5% first reported. Third quarter
of negative productivity, something not seen in years.
Unit Labor Costs explode higher: 4.3% versus 2.1% expected versus 2.0%
prior
Construction Spending, July: 0.0% versus 0.6% expected versus 0.9% June
Auto sales: Ford says the sales cycle has hit a plateau.
JOBS: disappoint after 2 stronger months as the sub-headings show the same
serious issues.
NON-FARM JOBS, August: 151K versus 180K expected versus 275K July (from
255K)
June revised to 271K from 292K.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.9% versus 4.8% expected versus 4.9% July
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 0.1% versus 0.2% versus 0.3% July.
Year/year: 1.5%. That rate of growth is the worst annual rate in 32 months
(2.75 years).
Many states raised and are raising the minimum wage, but they are
eliminating the really well paying jobs in the economy, and thus the average
rate earned is falling more than the rise in minimum wages.
AVERAGE WORKWEEK: 34.3 versus 34.5 expected versus 34.4 July (from 34.5)
BIG news here. How can the workweek be falling when jobs are created and
there is supposedly this insatiable demand for more workers? Several
factors.
First, we know the ACA (Affordable Care Act) is an hours worked destroyer.
It pressures employers to limit workers logging more than 29 hours per week.
If they work more they fall under the ACA's rules of providing insurance or
paying fines.
Second, the mandated increases in minimum wages in many states has the
perverse effect of raising wages but lowering the number of hours an
employee works. There is only a finite pool of money in a business. If
wages rise and nothing increases revenues to offset it, another area has to
suffer. Businesses are loath to lose profits because in this economy so
many are running on thin margins already. So, if required to raise the rate
paid per hour, a way to keep labor costs the same is to lower the number of
hours worked.
We reported this was happening at SBUX as employees are finding their work
hours reduced as SBUX implements higher wages. It is happening elsewhere as
the data shows, but SBUX is so interesting because it has championed higher
minimum wages, even implementing them itself without a government mandate.
Yet, it too must play by the same laws of economics every business
experiences (outside of the monopolies that our government still lets occur
today despite its claims otherwise). Thus instead of cutting Mr. Shultz'
take home, they are simply reducing hours worked and becoming more efficient
with a leaner staff. As purely anecdotal evidence, I have personally heard
workers complain about not having enough staff on to properly run stores.
Texas, California, Colorado -- the complaint heard is the same.
PARTICIPATION RATE: 62.8% versus 62.8% July
Not in the workforce: +58,000 to 94.39M
Household Survey jobs created: 97K.
WHERE THE JOBS ARE: Same old story, just worse.
Leisure and Hospitality: +29K
Food and Beverage Service: +34K
Professional/Business Services: +20K
Government: +25K
Retail: +15K
Manufacturing: -14K
Mining: -4K
Construction: -6K
Temporary: -3K (heralded in July as showing a turn was in progress)
Since 2014: +520,000 waiters and bartenders, -13,000 manufacturing workers
There are now 9.93M more government workers than manufacturing workers in
the US (22.21M versus 12.28M).
The US employment decline continues. Sure there are respites from the fade
as in June and July, but even those months, as I showed when the reports
were issued, did not show an increase in the number of breadwinner jobs.
The US labor force has morphed, under the restrictions from regulations and
taxes, into one geared to create low wage service jobs that service other
low wage workers. The US simply does not have the level of capital
investment needed to create the new industries and technologies that drive
higher wages and higher standards of living.
Moreover, even when there are good jobs, the industry titans such as
Facebook's Zuckerburg, MSFT's Gates, AAPL's Tim Cook clamor for the
importation of more and more STEM degree graduates from other countries
using the US Visa system. They claim there are no US trained graduates to
do these jobs, but that is simply incorrect. Tens upon tens upon tens of
thousands of US degreed grads in the STEM fields (Science, Technology,
Engineering, Mathematics) are in the US and unemployed. The industry
leaders simply want to hire CHEAPER labor from overseas versus those trained
at home.
Quite the irony is it not? Our leaders feel that such educations are so
important they are shoving more and more free money into education every
year to get more into college. That result? Higher college costs through
inflation for one. Second, we have thousands of ready, willing, and able
grads, but our leaders then allow thousands of foreign workers in to
undercut them in salaries.
This is another election when fundamental change is necessary. If it does
not occur, if we do not get back to unshackling smaller business to be the
innovators and job creators they have been for over 200 years, then the
changes in the labor market wrought over the past 20 years will become
permanent until there is collapse and rebuilding.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP400: Have to lead with the midcaps because they rallied well and punched
out a new all-time high. Nice gap and rally to close at the high and a new
all-time high. MACD is trying to cross back through itself and turn upside.
A solid move. Just as 7/29 was a solid break to a new high that was
immediately sold. Just as 8/15 was a solid new high that was also
immediately thrown back. Just as 8/23 was a solid gap upside that was
reversed the next session. Don't get me wrong; SP400 is still trending
higher, it just cannot seem to put together a several session rally.
RUTX: Similar session to SP400 though the small caps did not put in an
all-time high, just a new rally high. This after an eight session lateral
move at the 10 day EMA. A nice session Friday, but no definitive breakout.
As with SP400, the Russell has its share of new rally high reversals that
met a solid upside session with a day of selling. For now, however, RUTX
keeps finding the buyers.
SOX: The clear market leader got a bit tired last week though it certainly
looks somewhat rejuvenated Thursday as it broke higher off the 10 day EMA to
a new post-2000 high. Friday a gap higher but could not hold it as SOX was
the only index to close negative. Nonetheless, a solid trend up the 10 day
EMA continued for a fifth week. Perhaps a bit extended, but many chips are
still in very good upside patterns.
NASDAQ: Gapped to a tight doji of its own at the top of the four week flat
lateral range. A bit better volume Tuesday to Thursday as NASDAQ tested the
20 day EMA with doji. Big names still look as if they can support a break
higher, and the increased volume on that test of near support is not a bad
indication.
SP500: Gapped over the 10 and 20 day EMA but still below the August highs
in the most recent lateral move a 4 week flat range. Trying to stretch this
lateral move sideways and set up a new move. MACD continues to slide lower
as momentum is low. A lateral move sets up a better upside chance.
DJ30: Gapped to a doji at the 10 and 20 day EMA. Trying to put in a higher
low at the 50 day MA's from last week. Not bad action, but DJ30 is in the
same position with its own declining MACD and trying to stretch the move
laterally, put in a solid bounce and break up that July/August double top.
LEADERSHIP
Big Name NASDAQ: AAPL gapped above the 10 and 20 day EMA on rising trade.
Gapped close to a higher high then faded for a modest gain. Edging higher
but needs to show the breakout. FB gapped, faded some, held some of the
gain. NFLX continued its tight, flat move along the 10 day EMA. Gapped
over the 10 and 20 day EMA, no volume. Still a good pattern. SBUX is still
struggling after failing at the 200 day SMA.
Financial: Modest gains after losing some ground Thursday. Upside for the
week, however, and a bit of a pause here is not bad with still good
patterns, e.g. JPM working laterally over the 10 day EMA, GS and C doing the
same.
Chips: Mostly another good week. Stocks such as MRVL, RMBS surged nicely.
Others moved higher though not a blast off: MCHP, AMAT, NPTN. Others are
setting up interesting possibilities, e.g. ON, NVDA.
Retail: Got a bit shaky into midweek but recovered nicely. JWN is still
working a good pattern as is KSS. M, DDS, however, sold much farther. Some
of the apparel makers were sold. LULU hammered, DECK down to the 50 day MA,
UA breaking below the 200 day SMA and selling on volume. FL still looks
great to make a move form a great setup.
Restaurants: Still some improving patterns but work to do for most. BWLD
looks good. PNRA working on it. CAKE could set something up out of this
pattern. EAT still in a nice 3 week flag test.
Software: ROVI jumped nicely off a test of the 20 day EMA into Thursday.
BLKB not bad at all, forming an inverted head and shoulders the past two
months, breaking higher. RHT gapped to the 50 day MA's on the high.
China stocks: BIDU gapped over the 200 day SMA to a doji. SOHU in a nice
test of the initial surge; adjusting the buy point to get in if we can.
SINA continues running upside.
MARKET STATISTICS
NASDAQ
Stats: +22.69 points (+0.43%) to close at 5249.9
Volume: 1.462B (-6.5%)
Up Volume: 999.47M (+91.66M)
Down Volume: 448.48M (-202.5M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.14 to 1
New Highs: 180 (+67)
New Lows: 25 (-9)
S&P
Stats: +9.12 points (+0.42%) to close at 2179.98
NYSE Volume: 803.2M (-3.03%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.04 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.1 to 1
New Highs: 219 (+102)
New Lows: 13 (-8)
DJ30
Stats: +72.66 points (+0.39%) to close at 18491.96
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.98; -1.5
VXN: 14.32; -1.07
VXO: 10.8; -1.55
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; -0.05. Busted over 1.0 a few times last
week, now 5 over 3 weeks. Getting better but typically takes a few more to
get a move going. That said, the indices are moving as RUTX, SP400 showed
Friday, SOX on Wednesday.
Bulls and Bears: The sideways move in the market pulled bulls back below 56
and pushed bears to 20.6 from 20.2. Not huge moves, just a pause in the leg
higher.
Bulls: 55.9 versus 56.7
Bears: 20.6 versus 20.2
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 55.9 versus 56.7
56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus
52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3%
versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2% versus 44.3%
versus 47.4% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus
44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5%
Bears: 20.6 versus 20.2
20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus
24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8%
versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6%
versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus
30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2%
versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.601% versus 1.57%. The pattern is tightening up a bit
as TLT still holds the lateral move over the 50 day EMA. Testing the 50 day
EMA late week, showing a doji at that level Friday. The TLT pattern still
shows a bullish setup consolidating the June to early July bond rally.
Historical: 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus
1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55%
versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.51% versus
1.54% versus 1.59% versus 1.585% versus 1.503% versus 1.54% versus 1.558%
versus 1.51% versus 1.46% versus 1.50% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus
1.57% versus 1.56% versus 1.558% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.59%
versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.47%
EUR/USD: 1.11545 versus 1.11943. Euro sold to the 50 day SMA then started
a bounce Thursday. Friday the EUR surged but then reversed to close back
below the 200 day SMA.
Historical: 1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus
1.11949 versus 1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus
1.13251 versus 1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus
1.11636 versus 1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus
1.10882 versus 1.1130 versus 1.1148 versus 1.1219 versus 1.1164 versus
1.1173 versus 1.10806 versus 1.10732 versus 109857 versus 1.0992 versus
1.0977 versus 1.1021 versus 1.1022 versus 1.1021 versus 1.10654 versus
1.1035 versus 1.1117 versus 1.1099
USD/JPY: 103.92 versus 103.226. Dollar is on the recovery, up 5 of 7
sessions off the low. Broke through the 50 day MA's on the week, extended
the gain Friday. Pretty nifty double bottom off the June/July and August
lows.
Historical: 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus 102.160 versus
101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus 100.297 versus
100.21 versus 99.843 versus 100.529 versus 100.953 versus 101.308 versus
101.864 versus 101.23 versus 101.857 versus 102.356 versus 101.832 versus
101.178 versus 101.256 versus 101.09 versus 102.599 versus 102.045 versus
104.679 versus 105.98 versus 104.731 versus 105.76 versus 106.05
Oil: 44.44, +1.28. After a harsh Wednesday and Thursday broke oil below
the 50 day MA's. Rebounded Friday but nothing major.
Gold: 1326.70, +9.60. Rebounding off the early week selling. Held the
July low and is rebounding, making it back to the 50 day EMA on the Friday
close. This is an important move for gold to hold the more bullish pattern.
MONDAY
And even more data is now out. Jobs, ISM, Yellen/Fischer/Bullard at Jackson
Hole. GDP. Earnings.
The market has trended slightly higher on this data but over the past 7
weeks has not made a significant break higher on SP500, DJ30, 5 weeks on
NASDAQ. SP400 has trended slightly higher for 9 weeks then a good break
higher Friday. Maybe this is the charm. RUTX is similar, though a bit
better advance. SOX of course is the leader with a steady, albeit slow,
move up the 10 day EMA.
Yes the data is behind the market, again, but surviving the data dumps are
not enough. Something has to catalyze the buyers to take the still good
uptrends and send them higher.
Leadership remains solid enough and there are stocks that have put in good
moves that used some of the market lateral action to test and set up for
potential new moves. With leadership still in position to move that means
looking at more upside to take advantage of upside moves. Friday we picked
up some AAPL and WMB, adding to our buys into positions on BABY, HIMX, NPTN,
STX, VIP. Good stocks in good position and we are looking at some more this
week.
Of course with the market still unable to make clean breaks higher and with
momentum waning, you have to also be ready in the event the upside runs out
of gas and rolls over.
Letting the upside run continue, ready if the move reverses. Friday was
decent enough with no major negatives on the jobs report, but there were no
major positives, at least across the entire market. As we have seen, doesn't
have to be in order for the moves to continue, but it is always nice to see
more power. Kind of like what our presidential candidates seek.
Have a great Labor Day holiday!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5249.90
Resistance:
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday all-time high
Support:
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 5121
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4871
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2179.98
Resistance:
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 50 day EMA at 2155
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2056
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,478.27
Resistance:
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
Support:
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day EMA at 18,355
18,288 from March 2015
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
The 200 day SMA at 17,553
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
September 2 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, August (8:30): 151K actual versus 180K expected, 275K
prior (revised from 255K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, August (8:30): 126K actual versus 175K expected,
225K prior (revised from 217K)
Unemployment Rate, August (8:30): 4.9% actual versus 4.8% expected, 4.9%
prior (no revisions)
Average Hourly Earnings, August (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected,
0.3% prior (no revisions)
Hourly Earnings, August (8:30): 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, August (8:30): 34.3 actual versus 34.5 expected, 34.4
prior (revised from 34.5)
Trade Balance, July (8:30): -$39.5B actual versus -$43.0B expected, -$44.7B
prior (revised from -$44.5B)
Factory Orders, July (10:00): 1.9% actual versus 2.0% expected, -1.8% prior
(revised from -1.5%)
September 6 - Tuesday
ISM Services, August (10:00): 54.7 expected, 55.5 prior
September 7 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/03 (7:00): 2.8% prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, July (10:00): 5.624M prior
Crude Inventories, 09/03 (10:30): 2.276M prior
September 8 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/03 (8:30): 265K expected, 263K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/27 (8:30): 2159K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 09/03 (10:30): 51 bcf prior
Crude Inventories, 09/03 (11:00): 2.276M prior
Consumer Credit, July (15:00): $16.0B expected, $12.3B prior
September 9 - Friday
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 0.0% expected, 0.3% prior
End part 1 of 3
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MARKET SUMMARY
- A sad Labor Day: jobs report shows the secular weakening of the American
jobs market.
- A confused session: bonds sell, stocks rally, gold rallies as jobs miss.
- SP400 posts a strong break upside. Can it avoid the session-after
clubbing?
- Tons of data absorbed and the modest trend holds, but no guarantees.
After a couple of better months of job creation in terms of the headline
numbers, August reverted more to the mean with 151K jobs created. Of
course, the underlying data was worse than the headlines with some very
telling numbers in terms of wages and hours worked. Suffice it to say those
internal numbers were not great and quite frankly match the list of weaker
data from the week ranging from Chicago PMI, pending home sales, and the ISM
manufacturing report. These were quite bad, and all of the hopeful 'wait
until next year' calls for the 3rd and 4th quarters to show an economic
pickup just won't cut it.
With the jobs miss and weak internals, stock futures jumped in something of
a bad news is good news reaction. Stocks started higher, rallied at the
open, peaking a half hour into the session, at least in terms of the large
cap indices. A fade to early afternoon cut the gains but a rebound the last
two hours recovered some lost ground. The big cap indices didn't get back
to session highs but they put in respectable gains.
The real action was in RUTX and SP500. Same action as the large cap indices
except they didn't dip as far intraday, and their afternoon recovery took
them to new session highs and to new rally highs. Impressive moves. NASDAQ
gapped to a doji at the top of its August range while SOX gapped higher but
closed more or less flat.
SP500 9.12, 0.42%
NASDAQ 22.69, 0.43%
DJ30 72.66, 0.39%
SP400 0.97%
RUTX 0.97%
SOX -0.17%
VOLUME: NYSE -3%, NASDAQ -6.5%
A/D: NYSE 4:1, NASDAQ 2.25:1. Blistering breadth as the small and midcaps
jumped to higher rally highs, SP400 to a new all-time high.
Low rates benefit, in theory, smaller cap stocks. Money they need to grow
is easier to come by so that makes growth easier. Of course we know that
banks such as WFC and its CEO go on CNBC and tout how small business
friendly they are, but we also know they are full of beans. I know bankers
at WFC on a personal basis and they tell me they are not writing any loans
for small businesses. No need to.
So, the theories are great, but reality is not. In the end, it is anyone's
guess as to what drove stocks higher Friday. Bond yields rose even as the
market supposedly priced in less chance of a rate hike in September and
December (falling to 22% from 36% and to 55% from 59%, respectively).
Financials, sensitive to rates, faded even as rates moved higher. Small and
midcaps rallied even as higher rates imply loans are harder to come by.
As Lucilla told her brother the emperor in 'Gladiator,' the mob is fickle.
The mob is fickle, brother -- Lucilla, 'Gladiator' (2000)
The end result Friday is no change. RUTX and SP400 are taking a hand at
leading higher, but you know what the market has done to indices that dared
to break to higher highs: shot them right back down the next session.
Indeed, despite the jobs report and the 'bad news works because the Fed may
be on hold longer' mindset, the stock indices did not race in the chosen
direction. That leaves NASDAQ at the top of its four week range along with
SP500 and DJ30 toiling in their lateral moves as well.
Perhaps the children along with SOX are the ones to lead the big indices
higher. There are still very good leadership patterns in the market
overall. If so, Friday was a good step to get that move started, but again,
those indices have to survive the attacks on their success when next week
comes around. Suffice it to say that Friday, while a positive upside
development, did not eliminate the possibility that declining MACD and lower
volume on these gains is indicating a top in the large cap indices. The
market is still in the same situation of having to show it can make the
break higher and make it stick.
NEWS/ECONOMY
And we were told Q3 would be better: a bad week for economic data.
Chicago PMI, August: 51.5 versus 54.5 expected versus 55.8 June. Sharp
drop.
ISM Index, August: 49.4 versus 52.2 expected versus 52.6 prior. Falling
back to contraction.
Productivity, Q2 Revised: -0.6% versus -0.5% first reported. Third quarter
of negative productivity, something not seen in years.
Unit Labor Costs explode higher: 4.3% versus 2.1% expected versus 2.0%
prior
Construction Spending, July: 0.0% versus 0.6% expected versus 0.9% June
Auto sales: Ford says the sales cycle has hit a plateau.
JOBS: disappoint after 2 stronger months as the sub-headings show the same
serious issues.
NON-FARM JOBS, August: 151K versus 180K expected versus 275K July (from
255K)
June revised to 271K from 292K.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.9% versus 4.8% expected versus 4.9% July
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 0.1% versus 0.2% versus 0.3% July.
Year/year: 1.5%. That rate of growth is the worst annual rate in 32 months
(2.75 years).
Many states raised and are raising the minimum wage, but they are
eliminating the really well paying jobs in the economy, and thus the average
rate earned is falling more than the rise in minimum wages.
AVERAGE WORKWEEK: 34.3 versus 34.5 expected versus 34.4 July (from 34.5)
BIG news here. How can the workweek be falling when jobs are created and
there is supposedly this insatiable demand for more workers? Several
factors.
First, we know the ACA (Affordable Care Act) is an hours worked destroyer.
It pressures employers to limit workers logging more than 29 hours per week.
If they work more they fall under the ACA's rules of providing insurance or
paying fines.
Second, the mandated increases in minimum wages in many states has the
perverse effect of raising wages but lowering the number of hours an
employee works. There is only a finite pool of money in a business. If
wages rise and nothing increases revenues to offset it, another area has to
suffer. Businesses are loath to lose profits because in this economy so
many are running on thin margins already. So, if required to raise the rate
paid per hour, a way to keep labor costs the same is to lower the number of
hours worked.
We reported this was happening at SBUX as employees are finding their work
hours reduced as SBUX implements higher wages. It is happening elsewhere as
the data shows, but SBUX is so interesting because it has championed higher
minimum wages, even implementing them itself without a government mandate.
Yet, it too must play by the same laws of economics every business
experiences (outside of the monopolies that our government still lets occur
today despite its claims otherwise). Thus instead of cutting Mr. Shultz'
take home, they are simply reducing hours worked and becoming more efficient
with a leaner staff. As purely anecdotal evidence, I have personally heard
workers complain about not having enough staff on to properly run stores.
Texas, California, Colorado -- the complaint heard is the same.
PARTICIPATION RATE: 62.8% versus 62.8% July
Not in the workforce: +58,000 to 94.39M
Household Survey jobs created: 97K.
WHERE THE JOBS ARE: Same old story, just worse.
Leisure and Hospitality: +29K
Food and Beverage Service: +34K
Professional/Business Services: +20K
Government: +25K
Retail: +15K
Manufacturing: -14K
Mining: -4K
Construction: -6K
Temporary: -3K (heralded in July as showing a turn was in progress)
Since 2014: +520,000 waiters and bartenders, -13,000 manufacturing workers
There are now 9.93M more government workers than manufacturing workers in
the US (22.21M versus 12.28M).
The US employment decline continues. Sure there are respites from the fade
as in June and July, but even those months, as I showed when the reports
were issued, did not show an increase in the number of breadwinner jobs.
The US labor force has morphed, under the restrictions from regulations and
taxes, into one geared to create low wage service jobs that service other
low wage workers. The US simply does not have the level of capital
investment needed to create the new industries and technologies that drive
higher wages and higher standards of living.
Moreover, even when there are good jobs, the industry titans such as
Facebook's Zuckerburg, MSFT's Gates, AAPL's Tim Cook clamor for the
importation of more and more STEM degree graduates from other countries
using the US Visa system. They claim there are no US trained graduates to
do these jobs, but that is simply incorrect. Tens upon tens upon tens of
thousands of US degreed grads in the STEM fields (Science, Technology,
Engineering, Mathematics) are in the US and unemployed. The industry
leaders simply want to hire CHEAPER labor from overseas versus those trained
at home.
Quite the irony is it not? Our leaders feel that such educations are so
important they are shoving more and more free money into education every
year to get more into college. That result? Higher college costs through
inflation for one. Second, we have thousands of ready, willing, and able
grads, but our leaders then allow thousands of foreign workers in to
undercut them in salaries.
This is another election when fundamental change is necessary. If it does
not occur, if we do not get back to unshackling smaller business to be the
innovators and job creators they have been for over 200 years, then the
changes in the labor market wrought over the past 20 years will become
permanent until there is collapse and rebuilding.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP400: Have to lead with the midcaps because they rallied well and punched
out a new all-time high. Nice gap and rally to close at the high and a new
all-time high. MACD is trying to cross back through itself and turn upside.
A solid move. Just as 7/29 was a solid break to a new high that was
immediately sold. Just as 8/15 was a solid new high that was also
immediately thrown back. Just as 8/23 was a solid gap upside that was
reversed the next session. Don't get me wrong; SP400 is still trending
higher, it just cannot seem to put together a several session rally.
RUTX: Similar session to SP400 though the small caps did not put in an
all-time high, just a new rally high. This after an eight session lateral
move at the 10 day EMA. A nice session Friday, but no definitive breakout.
As with SP400, the Russell has its share of new rally high reversals that
met a solid upside session with a day of selling. For now, however, RUTX
keeps finding the buyers.
SOX: The clear market leader got a bit tired last week though it certainly
looks somewhat rejuvenated Thursday as it broke higher off the 10 day EMA to
a new post-2000 high. Friday a gap higher but could not hold it as SOX was
the only index to close negative. Nonetheless, a solid trend up the 10 day
EMA continued for a fifth week. Perhaps a bit extended, but many chips are
still in very good upside patterns.
NASDAQ: Gapped to a tight doji of its own at the top of the four week flat
lateral range. A bit better volume Tuesday to Thursday as NASDAQ tested the
20 day EMA with doji. Big names still look as if they can support a break
higher, and the increased volume on that test of near support is not a bad
indication.
SP500: Gapped over the 10 and 20 day EMA but still below the August highs
in the most recent lateral move a 4 week flat range. Trying to stretch this
lateral move sideways and set up a new move. MACD continues to slide lower
as momentum is low. A lateral move sets up a better upside chance.
DJ30: Gapped to a doji at the 10 and 20 day EMA. Trying to put in a higher
low at the 50 day MA's from last week. Not bad action, but DJ30 is in the
same position with its own declining MACD and trying to stretch the move
laterally, put in a solid bounce and break up that July/August double top.
LEADERSHIP
Big Name NASDAQ: AAPL gapped above the 10 and 20 day EMA on rising trade.
Gapped close to a higher high then faded for a modest gain. Edging higher
but needs to show the breakout. FB gapped, faded some, held some of the
gain. NFLX continued its tight, flat move along the 10 day EMA. Gapped
over the 10 and 20 day EMA, no volume. Still a good pattern. SBUX is still
struggling after failing at the 200 day SMA.
Financial: Modest gains after losing some ground Thursday. Upside for the
week, however, and a bit of a pause here is not bad with still good
patterns, e.g. JPM working laterally over the 10 day EMA, GS and C doing the
same.
Chips: Mostly another good week. Stocks such as MRVL, RMBS surged nicely.
Others moved higher though not a blast off: MCHP, AMAT, NPTN. Others are
setting up interesting possibilities, e.g. ON, NVDA.
Retail: Got a bit shaky into midweek but recovered nicely. JWN is still
working a good pattern as is KSS. M, DDS, however, sold much farther. Some
of the apparel makers were sold. LULU hammered, DECK down to the 50 day MA,
UA breaking below the 200 day SMA and selling on volume. FL still looks
great to make a move form a great setup.
Restaurants: Still some improving patterns but work to do for most. BWLD
looks good. PNRA working on it. CAKE could set something up out of this
pattern. EAT still in a nice 3 week flag test.
Software: ROVI jumped nicely off a test of the 20 day EMA into Thursday.
BLKB not bad at all, forming an inverted head and shoulders the past two
months, breaking higher. RHT gapped to the 50 day MA's on the high.
China stocks: BIDU gapped over the 200 day SMA to a doji. SOHU in a nice
test of the initial surge; adjusting the buy point to get in if we can.
SINA continues running upside.
MARKET STATISTICS
NASDAQ
Stats: +22.69 points (+0.43%) to close at 5249.9
Volume: 1.462B (-6.5%)
Up Volume: 999.47M (+91.66M)
Down Volume: 448.48M (-202.5M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.14 to 1
New Highs: 180 (+67)
New Lows: 25 (-9)
S&P
Stats: +9.12 points (+0.42%) to close at 2179.98
NYSE Volume: 803.2M (-3.03%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.04 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.1 to 1
New Highs: 219 (+102)
New Lows: 13 (-8)
DJ30
Stats: +72.66 points (+0.39%) to close at 18491.96
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.98; -1.5
VXN: 14.32; -1.07
VXO: 10.8; -1.55
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; -0.05. Busted over 1.0 a few times last
week, now 5 over 3 weeks. Getting better but typically takes a few more to
get a move going. That said, the indices are moving as RUTX, SP400 showed
Friday, SOX on Wednesday.
Bulls and Bears: The sideways move in the market pulled bulls back below 56
and pushed bears to 20.6 from 20.2. Not huge moves, just a pause in the leg
higher.
Bulls: 55.9 versus 56.7
Bears: 20.6 versus 20.2
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 55.9 versus 56.7
56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus
52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3%
versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2% versus 44.3%
versus 47.4% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus
44.4% versus 39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5%
Bears: 20.6 versus 20.2
20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus
24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8%
versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6%
versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus
30.3% versus 35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2%
versus 38.1% versus 35.4% versus 36.1%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.601% versus 1.57%. The pattern is tightening up a bit
as TLT still holds the lateral move over the 50 day EMA. Testing the 50 day
EMA late week, showing a doji at that level Friday. The TLT pattern still
shows a bullish setup consolidating the June to early July bond rally.
Historical: 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus
1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55%
versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.51% versus
1.54% versus 1.59% versus 1.585% versus 1.503% versus 1.54% versus 1.558%
versus 1.51% versus 1.46% versus 1.50% versus 1.51% versus 1.56% versus
1.57% versus 1.56% versus 1.558% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.59%
versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.47%
EUR/USD: 1.11545 versus 1.11943. Euro sold to the 50 day SMA then started
a bounce Thursday. Friday the EUR surged but then reversed to close back
below the 200 day SMA.
Historical: 1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus
1.11949 versus 1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus
1.13251 versus 1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus
1.11636 versus 1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus
1.10882 versus 1.1130 versus 1.1148 versus 1.1219 versus 1.1164 versus
1.1173 versus 1.10806 versus 1.10732 versus 109857 versus 1.0992 versus
1.0977 versus 1.1021 versus 1.1022 versus 1.1021 versus 1.10654 versus
1.1035 versus 1.1117 versus 1.1099
USD/JPY: 103.92 versus 103.226. Dollar is on the recovery, up 5 of 7
sessions off the low. Broke through the 50 day MA's on the week, extended
the gain Friday. Pretty nifty double bottom off the June/July and August
lows.
Historical: 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus 102.160 versus
101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus 100.297 versus
100.21 versus 99.843 versus 100.529 versus 100.953 versus 101.308 versus
101.864 versus 101.23 versus 101.857 versus 102.356 versus 101.832 versus
101.178 versus 101.256 versus 101.09 versus 102.599 versus 102.045 versus
104.679 versus 105.98 versus 104.731 versus 105.76 versus 106.05
Oil: 44.44, +1.28. After a harsh Wednesday and Thursday broke oil below
the 50 day MA's. Rebounded Friday but nothing major.
Gold: 1326.70, +9.60. Rebounding off the early week selling. Held the
July low and is rebounding, making it back to the 50 day EMA on the Friday
close. This is an important move for gold to hold the more bullish pattern.
MONDAY
And even more data is now out. Jobs, ISM, Yellen/Fischer/Bullard at Jackson
Hole. GDP. Earnings.
The market has trended slightly higher on this data but over the past 7
weeks has not made a significant break higher on SP500, DJ30, 5 weeks on
NASDAQ. SP400 has trended slightly higher for 9 weeks then a good break
higher Friday. Maybe this is the charm. RUTX is similar, though a bit
better advance. SOX of course is the leader with a steady, albeit slow,
move up the 10 day EMA.
Yes the data is behind the market, again, but surviving the data dumps are
not enough. Something has to catalyze the buyers to take the still good
uptrends and send them higher.
Leadership remains solid enough and there are stocks that have put in good
moves that used some of the market lateral action to test and set up for
potential new moves. With leadership still in position to move that means
looking at more upside to take advantage of upside moves. Friday we picked
up some AAPL and WMB, adding to our buys into positions on BABY, HIMX, NPTN,
STX, VIP. Good stocks in good position and we are looking at some more this
week.
Of course with the market still unable to make clean breaks higher and with
momentum waning, you have to also be ready in the event the upside runs out
of gas and rolls over.
Letting the upside run continue, ready if the move reverses. Friday was
decent enough with no major negatives on the jobs report, but there were no
major positives, at least across the entire market. As we have seen, doesn't
have to be in order for the moves to continue, but it is always nice to see
more power. Kind of like what our presidential candidates seek.
Have a great Labor Day holiday!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5249.90
Resistance:
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday all-time high
Support:
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 5121
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4871
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2179.98
Resistance:
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 50 day EMA at 2155
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2056
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,478.27
Resistance:
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
Support:
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day EMA at 18,355
18,288 from March 2015
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
The 200 day SMA at 17,553
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
September 2 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, August (8:30): 151K actual versus 180K expected, 275K
prior (revised from 255K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, August (8:30): 126K actual versus 175K expected,
225K prior (revised from 217K)
Unemployment Rate, August (8:30): 4.9% actual versus 4.8% expected, 4.9%
prior (no revisions)
Average Hourly Earnings, August (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected,
0.3% prior (no revisions)
Hourly Earnings, August (8:30): 0.3% prior
Average Workweek, August (8:30): 34.3 actual versus 34.5 expected, 34.4
prior (revised from 34.5)
Trade Balance, July (8:30): -$39.5B actual versus -$43.0B expected, -$44.7B
prior (revised from -$44.5B)
Factory Orders, July (10:00): 1.9% actual versus 2.0% expected, -1.8% prior
(revised from -1.5%)
September 6 - Tuesday
ISM Services, August (10:00): 54.7 expected, 55.5 prior
September 7 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/03 (7:00): 2.8% prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, July (10:00): 5.624M prior
Crude Inventories, 09/03 (10:30): 2.276M prior
September 8 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/03 (8:30): 265K expected, 263K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/27 (8:30): 2159K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 09/03 (10:30): 51 bcf prior
Crude Inventories, 09/03 (11:00): 2.276M prior
Consumer Credit, July (15:00): $16.0B expected, $12.3B prior
September 9 - Friday
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 0.0% expected, 0.3% prior
End part 1 of 3
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