* * * *
12/30/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: CENX
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks again squander a higher open as the rebalance takes more of a toll.
- NASDAQ, SP500 break 2016 trendlines but other indices hold support.
- Most leaders hold nicely, financials even manage a small gain.
- Potential entries still look good post-Friday.
- New plays for the start of 2017
What looked as if it could be a poetic end to 2016 with an up session for an
up market fell to the harsh reality of a rebalance. Stocks sold to end 2016,
a victim of their own success in the post-election rally, necessitating year
end selling to end 2016 with stock funds at each fund's required proportion.
Stocks did open the session higher but were unable to hold the move -- from
almost the opening bell. Stocks sold from the higher open through midday
and to the last hour. A rebound in the last hour cut some losses.
SP500 -10.43, -0.46%
NASDAQ -48.97, -0.90%
DJ30 -57.18, -0.29%
SP400 -0.40%
RUTX -0.44%
SOX -1.60%
VOLUME: NYSE +35%, NASDAQ +15%. Up on the rebalance session to end the
year. The majority of volume occurred in the last 15 minutes with a huge
spike at 3:55ET
A/D: NYSE -1.2:1, NASDAQ -1.6:1
Cut some losses, but there was some damage done. SP500 broke lower, closing
just below the 2016 up trendline. NASDAQ broke the 20 day EMA and its 2016
trendline, led lower by the big name FAANG: GOOG diving below the 50 day MA;
AMZN diving from the 50 day MA's, falling 2%; FB down over 1%. A rather
narrow, finite group of NASDAQ stocks hurt the index.
DJ30 and SOX both closed at the 20 day EMA. SP400 just cracked its 20 day.
RUTX sold to its 20 day EMA as well.
Overall nothing major for most indices, but NASDAQ is under some pressure
and all are still somewhat extended in the overall picture. The difficulty
in quantifying the action given it was year end as well as that portfolio
rebalance.
Most stocks we watch held their patterns. Down on the day (outside of the
financials) but not any real damage to most as they held their patterns and
trends. That leaves many stocks in good position to move higher to start
the year -- if they get the money to start 2017.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Chicago PMI, Dec: 54.6 vs 55.2 vs 57.6 November.
Looking at the progression in the sub-indices as well as the overall PMI, it
looks as if November's spike was an aberration as sentiment jumped but the
hard numbers have dropped right back to prior levels.
New Orders: 56.5 vs 63.2 November vs 52.5 Oct vs 54.1 Sept
Production: 58.5 vs 59.1 Nov vs 54.4 Oct vs 59.8 Sept
Employment: 49.7 vs 49.7 Nov vs 51.1 Oct vs 49.2 Sept
Prices: 58.0 vs 56.8 Nov vs 59.5 Oct vs 55.5 Sept. The trend in prices is
the one area that is up. Others slowing, prices up, stagflation in the air?
Inventories: Below 50, making it 8 months out of 2016 in contraction. Many
respondents commented they did not want to build inventories ahead of year
end.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
To view charts, click on link or paste URL into browser.
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
LEADERSHIP
Mostly holding with minor losses, though financial stocks were up and some
chips related to AAPL sold harder.
Financial: Modest gains as these leaders held their positions. C, JPM, GS
all are fine.
Semiconductors: AAPL was reported to be cutting iPhone 7 production
according to an analyst looking at supplier numbers. Thus SWKS, AVGO, as
AAPL related stocks, sold harder, breaking near support. Most others were
lower but held their support, e.g. XLNX, MU, SLAB.
Telecom: For the most part solid enough as CIEN held the 10 day EMA and
other stocks held, e.g. MBT, HLIT.
Oil: Some nice patterns remain, e.g. GST, BTE, HOS, SDLP, RIG.
Tech: Not bad, holding support, e.g. MSFT at the 10 day EMA, JNPR ditto.
Drugs/Biotechs: Struggled. TTPH broke the 200 day SMA. KERX was off but
held the 20 day EMA easily enough, holding its range. BIIB faded to the 200
day SMA and MNKD dropped to the 50 day EMA.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -48.97 points (-0.9%) to close at 5383.12
Volume: 1.565B (+15.41%)
Up Volume: 415.67M (-177.57M)
Down Volume: 1.11B (+466.94M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.48 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.03 to 1
New Highs: 68 (-23)
New Lows: 53 (-4)
S&P
Stats: -10.43 points (-0.46%) to close at 2238.83
NYSE Volume: 803.6M (+35.47%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.21 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.46 to 1
New Highs: 63 (+8)
New Lows: 27 (+2)
DJ30
Stats: -57.18 points (-0.29%) to close at 19762.6
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 14.04; +0.67
VXN: 16.68; +1.12
VXO: 13.43; +0.52
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.09; +0.15
Second 1+ read of the past 2 weeks as some more protection was purchased.
Elevated into the 0.90's so a bit more caution but nothing major.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls slowed the ascent, up just 0.2 but that much closer
to 60.0. 60 to 65 have signed off on many a market correction since 1998.
Effectively there, so have to watch the technical indications. Bears rose
back up to 19.6 where they were 3 weeks back.
Bulls: 59.8 versus 59.6
Bears: 19.6 versus 19.2
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 59.8 versus 59.6
59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6
versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3
versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus
41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4%
versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 19.6 versus 19.2
19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9%
versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0%
versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8%
versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.42% versus 2.48%
Historical: 2.48% versus 2.51% versus 2.56% versus 2.54% versus 2.55% versus
2.54% versus 2.564% versus 2.544% versus 2.59% versus 2.59% versus 2.52%
versus 2.473% versus 2.475% versus 2.471% versus 2.40% versus 2.349% versus
2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394% versus 2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30%
versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus 2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus
2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14%
versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus
1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791%
EUR/USD: 1.05289 versus 1.05155
Historical: 1.05155 versus 1.04357 versus 1.04636 versus 1.0451 versus
1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus 1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459 versus
1.0415 versus 1.05094 versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586 versus
1.06140 versus 1.07745 versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638 versus
1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066 versus
1.05910 versus 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus 1.0587 versus
1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858 versus
1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406 versus
1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860 versus
1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793
USD/JPY: 116.739 versus 116.456.
Historical: 116.456 versus 116.793 versus 117.41 versus 117.413 versus
117.32 versus 117.537 versus 117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus
117.941 versus 118.257 versus 117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus
115.20 versus 114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus
113.52 versus 113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus
111.835 versus 113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus
110.905 versus 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99
Oil: 53.72, -0.05.
Gold: 1151.70, -6.40.
PLAYS:
LIVE: Testing the 10 day EMA with a doji after a big surge, we are looking
to catch some more upside momentum if LIVE takes off upside again. The
stock put in a reverse 1:6 stock split and that helped it move farther, but
it was already running for us moving into that split. Now we want to catch
any momentum that is left and ride it upside toward the prior high.
EARNINGS: 2/20 after the close
ENTRY: 24.38
TARGET: 32.89
POSITION: Stock
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/live.jpg
DIS: in a 2 week test of its last move to a higher rally high that matched
the May 2016 peak. After this test DIS will be ready to rally to a higher
high past that May peak. We will wait for the test to end, watching for a
break higher that holds the move. That is our entry point.
EARNINGS: 2/9 after
ENTRY: 105.09
TARGET: 114
POSITION: Stock and/or MAR 17 2017 105.00 C (49 delta)
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/dis.jpg
LULU: Gap test. LULU gapped sharply higher in early December on strong
earnings. Nice big gap on strong volume took LULU to the lower gap point
from early September. It has since put in a 3 week test back to the 20 day
EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the early December move. Strong
breakout move, nice test. MACD broke out on the move. We want to enter as
LULU surges back up through the entry point and holds the move toward the
close. That is the entry signal.
EARNINGS: 3/8 after the close
ENTRY: 65.74
TARGET: 74.94
POSITION: Stock and/or LULU MAR 17 2017 65.00 C (52 delta)
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/lulu.jpg
Have a great New Year's celebration!
End part 1 of 2
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Saturday, December 31, 2016
Saturday, December 24, 2016
The Daily, Part 1 of 2, 12-23-16
* * * *
12/23/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: KERX
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Modest rise but no late Santa or December run.
- Indices still working on patterns, SOX breaks higher again.
- Leaders status quo though chips rise and money moves toward smaller
biotechs.
- New Plays for Tuesday
There was no next-to-last week rally in the stock market in 2016. It
remains to be seen if the 'in-between' week from Christmas to New Year's
brings more year end cheer.
SP500 2.83, 0.13%
NASDAQ 15.27, 0.28%
DJ30 14.93, 0.07%
SP400 0.24%
RUTX 0.65%
SOX 0.53%
Not that the session was bad. As noted, all indices closed higher, but,
with the exception of SOX and its prior breakout, they did not breakout from
their consolidations. They did put in some decent work on the lateral
moves, particularly SP400 and RUTX, but that is about all. Again, it
remains an open question whether they will rally next week in to year end
with high bullishness and the indices sitting on highs.
To view charts, click on link or paste URL into browser.
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
Many leaders held the line similar to the indices, not selling, not
advancing. Financial stocks still look good in their lateral move and
indeed C edged through the buy point but it was just barely moving and
volume was extremely low. Metals were not bad, the same as transports, oil,
internet, telecom leading groups.
One area that stood out were the smaller biotechs and indeed even some of
the larger names looked a bit better. BCRX surged 9%. KERX jumped 3.76%.
We are looking at a position in CRIS for Tuesday if it can continue its
move. MNKD is already on the report and has a very nice pullback to the 10
day EMA setting up its move.
Of course semiconductors were still solid with NVDA leading higher again and
some other familiar names, e.g. XLNX, joining it.
In sum, it was more of the same but less of the same. The indices are
holding their gains but were not breaking higher for the Santa Run.
With that action we left our positions to work as most of them are just fine
though some of the oil plays are testing support. We bought some KERX on a
nice price and volume upside break (volume was good given the session).
For next week we will see if the year end move gets better. Biotechs/drugs
are getting some money so we like our BCRX and KERX positions, and are
watching MNKD and EXAS to see if they break higher. We are also putting on
CRIS as a play for next week. Then we spend next week hopefully playing a
run higher and also watching where money may be moving toward new areas
similar to what the smaller biotechs are showing right now That way we can
get a head start on the new year by observing where the money appears to be
heading, getting a bit of an early jump so to speak.
New Plays:
CRIS: Working higher in an 18 month base. After the surge higher in
September to October, CRIS has used the 50 day MA as support. It bounced
off that level this week then spent Wednesday and Thursday testing. Friday
it started back upside, and if that move continues we want to move in for
another solid upside run.
EARNINGS: 2-2 before
ENTRY: 3.47
TARGET: 4.32
POSITION: Stock
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/cris.jpg
IMMU: Forming a handle in a nice 7 month double bottom with handle base.
Classic action with volume dying down during the middle of the base,
building as it moved up the right side, then tapering next to nothing as it
has faded back to form the handle over the 20 day EMA. Good volume levels
on average, great pattern. A good break higher that holds the move is our
entry signal.
EARNINGS: 2/1 after
ENTRY: 3.86
TARGET: 4.98
POSITION: Stock
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/immu.jpg
Have a great Christmas, Hanukkah, holiday, or whatever suits you!
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +15.27 points (+0.28%) to close at 5462.69
Volume: 1.182B (-25.27%)
Up Volume: 735.42M (+168.27M)
Down Volume: 365.76M (-604.23M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.86 to 1
New Highs: 87 (-52)
New Lows: 34 (-24)
S&P
Stats: +2.83 points (+0.13%) to close at 2263.79
NYSE Volume: 515M (-28.94%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.46 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.39 to 1
New Highs: 81 (-13)
New Lows: 24 (-3)
DJ30
Stats: +14.93 points (+0.07%) to close at 19933.81
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.44; +0.01
VXN: 13.24; -0.18
VXO: 11.09; 0
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.86; -0.03
13 of 39. Interestingly, put activity lightened a bit on a downside
session. Put activity has picked up the past week as big funds are buying
downside protection at these last new highs.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls slowed the ascent, up just 0.2 but that much closer
to 60.0. 60 to 65 have signed off on many a market correction since 1998.
Effectively there, so have to watch the technical indications. Bears rose
back up to 19.6 where they were 3 weeks back.
Bulls: 59.8 versus 59.6
Bears: 19.6 versus 19.2
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 59.8 versus 59.6
59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6
versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3
versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus
41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4%
versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 19.6 versus 19.2
19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9%
versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0%
versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8%
versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.54% versus 2.55%
Historical: 2.54% versus 2.54% versus 2.564% versus 2.544% versus 2.59%
versus 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473% versus 2.475% versus 2.471% versus
2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394% versus 2.454%
versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus 2.355% versus
2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219% versus 2.22%
versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus
1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85%
versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73% versus
1.75% versus 1.74%
EUR/USD: 1.0451 versus 1.04368
Historical: 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus 1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459
versus 1.0415 versus 1.05094 versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586
versus 1.06140 versus 1.07745 versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638
versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066
versus 1.05910 versus 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus 1.0587
versus 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858
versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406
versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860
versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08851
versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217
USD/JPY: 117.32 versus 117.537.
Historical: 117.537 versus 117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus
117.941 versus 118.257 versus 117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus
115.20 versus 114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus
113.52 versus 113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus
111.835 versus 113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus
110.905 versus 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99
Oil: 53.02, +0.07. Managed to hold the breakout into Christmas.
Gold: 1133.60, +2.90.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5462.69
Resistance:
Support:
The November all-time high at 5404
The 2016 trendline at 5389
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 50 day EMA at 5338
The 50 day SMA at 5305
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
The 200 day SMA at 5080
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2263.79
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 2257
The 2016 trendline at 2232
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
The 50 day EMA at 2205
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 2185
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 2132
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,933.81
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 19,834
The 20 day EMA 19,613
The 50 day EMA at 19,130
The 50 day SMA at 18,904
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
The 200 day SMA at 18,247
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
December 23 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment -, December (10:00): 98.2 actual versus 98.2 expected,
98.0 prior
New Home Sales, November (10:00): 592K actual versus 573K expected, 563K
prior (no revisions)
December 27 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, October (9:00): 5.1% prior
Consumer Confidence, December (10:00): 109.8 expected, 107.1 prior
December 28 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/24 (7:00): 2.5% prior
Pending Home Sales, November (10:00): 0.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 12/24 (10:30): 2.256M prior
December 29 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 12/24 (8:30): 263K expected, 275K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/17 (8:30): 2036K prior
International Trade , November (8:30): -$62.0B prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/24 (10:30): -209 bcf prior
End part 1 of 2
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
12/23/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: KERX
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Modest rise but no late Santa or December run.
- Indices still working on patterns, SOX breaks higher again.
- Leaders status quo though chips rise and money moves toward smaller
biotechs.
- New Plays for Tuesday
There was no next-to-last week rally in the stock market in 2016. It
remains to be seen if the 'in-between' week from Christmas to New Year's
brings more year end cheer.
SP500 2.83, 0.13%
NASDAQ 15.27, 0.28%
DJ30 14.93, 0.07%
SP400 0.24%
RUTX 0.65%
SOX 0.53%
Not that the session was bad. As noted, all indices closed higher, but,
with the exception of SOX and its prior breakout, they did not breakout from
their consolidations. They did put in some decent work on the lateral
moves, particularly SP400 and RUTX, but that is about all. Again, it
remains an open question whether they will rally next week in to year end
with high bullishness and the indices sitting on highs.
To view charts, click on link or paste URL into browser.
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
Many leaders held the line similar to the indices, not selling, not
advancing. Financial stocks still look good in their lateral move and
indeed C edged through the buy point but it was just barely moving and
volume was extremely low. Metals were not bad, the same as transports, oil,
internet, telecom leading groups.
One area that stood out were the smaller biotechs and indeed even some of
the larger names looked a bit better. BCRX surged 9%. KERX jumped 3.76%.
We are looking at a position in CRIS for Tuesday if it can continue its
move. MNKD is already on the report and has a very nice pullback to the 10
day EMA setting up its move.
Of course semiconductors were still solid with NVDA leading higher again and
some other familiar names, e.g. XLNX, joining it.
In sum, it was more of the same but less of the same. The indices are
holding their gains but were not breaking higher for the Santa Run.
With that action we left our positions to work as most of them are just fine
though some of the oil plays are testing support. We bought some KERX on a
nice price and volume upside break (volume was good given the session).
For next week we will see if the year end move gets better. Biotechs/drugs
are getting some money so we like our BCRX and KERX positions, and are
watching MNKD and EXAS to see if they break higher. We are also putting on
CRIS as a play for next week. Then we spend next week hopefully playing a
run higher and also watching where money may be moving toward new areas
similar to what the smaller biotechs are showing right now That way we can
get a head start on the new year by observing where the money appears to be
heading, getting a bit of an early jump so to speak.
New Plays:
CRIS: Working higher in an 18 month base. After the surge higher in
September to October, CRIS has used the 50 day MA as support. It bounced
off that level this week then spent Wednesday and Thursday testing. Friday
it started back upside, and if that move continues we want to move in for
another solid upside run.
EARNINGS: 2-2 before
ENTRY: 3.47
TARGET: 4.32
POSITION: Stock
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/cris.jpg
IMMU: Forming a handle in a nice 7 month double bottom with handle base.
Classic action with volume dying down during the middle of the base,
building as it moved up the right side, then tapering next to nothing as it
has faded back to form the handle over the 20 day EMA. Good volume levels
on average, great pattern. A good break higher that holds the move is our
entry signal.
EARNINGS: 2/1 after
ENTRY: 3.86
TARGET: 4.98
POSITION: Stock
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/immu.jpg
Have a great Christmas, Hanukkah, holiday, or whatever suits you!
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +15.27 points (+0.28%) to close at 5462.69
Volume: 1.182B (-25.27%)
Up Volume: 735.42M (+168.27M)
Down Volume: 365.76M (-604.23M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.86 to 1
New Highs: 87 (-52)
New Lows: 34 (-24)
S&P
Stats: +2.83 points (+0.13%) to close at 2263.79
NYSE Volume: 515M (-28.94%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.46 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.39 to 1
New Highs: 81 (-13)
New Lows: 24 (-3)
DJ30
Stats: +14.93 points (+0.07%) to close at 19933.81
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.44; +0.01
VXN: 13.24; -0.18
VXO: 11.09; 0
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.86; -0.03
13 of 39. Interestingly, put activity lightened a bit on a downside
session. Put activity has picked up the past week as big funds are buying
downside protection at these last new highs.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls slowed the ascent, up just 0.2 but that much closer
to 60.0. 60 to 65 have signed off on many a market correction since 1998.
Effectively there, so have to watch the technical indications. Bears rose
back up to 19.6 where they were 3 weeks back.
Bulls: 59.8 versus 59.6
Bears: 19.6 versus 19.2
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 59.8 versus 59.6
59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6
versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3
versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus
41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4%
versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 19.6 versus 19.2
19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9%
versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0%
versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8%
versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.54% versus 2.55%
Historical: 2.54% versus 2.54% versus 2.564% versus 2.544% versus 2.59%
versus 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473% versus 2.475% versus 2.471% versus
2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394% versus 2.454%
versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus 2.355% versus
2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219% versus 2.22%
versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus
1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85%
versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73% versus
1.75% versus 1.74%
EUR/USD: 1.0451 versus 1.04368
Historical: 1.04368 versus 1.04412 versus 1.0392 versus 1.0407 versus 1.0459
versus 1.0415 versus 1.05094 versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus 1.05586
versus 1.06140 versus 1.07745 versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus 1.06638
versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066
versus 1.05910 versus 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus 1.0587
versus 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858
versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406
versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860
versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08851
versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217
USD/JPY: 117.32 versus 117.537.
Historical: 117.537 versus 117.544 versus 117.835 versus 117.453 versus
117.941 versus 118.257 versus 117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus
115.20 versus 114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus
113.52 versus 113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus
111.835 versus 113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus
110.905 versus 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99
Oil: 53.02, +0.07. Managed to hold the breakout into Christmas.
Gold: 1133.60, +2.90.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5462.69
Resistance:
Support:
The November all-time high at 5404
The 2016 trendline at 5389
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 50 day EMA at 5338
The 50 day SMA at 5305
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
The 200 day SMA at 5080
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2263.79
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 2257
The 2016 trendline at 2232
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
The 50 day EMA at 2205
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 2185
2175 is the June 2016 high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 2132
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,933.81
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 19,834
The 20 day EMA 19,613
The 50 day EMA at 19,130
The 50 day SMA at 18,904
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
The 200 day SMA at 18,247
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
December 23 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment -, December (10:00): 98.2 actual versus 98.2 expected,
98.0 prior
New Home Sales, November (10:00): 592K actual versus 573K expected, 563K
prior (no revisions)
December 27 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, October (9:00): 5.1% prior
Consumer Confidence, December (10:00): 109.8 expected, 107.1 prior
December 28 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/24 (7:00): 2.5% prior
Pending Home Sales, November (10:00): 0.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 12/24 (10:30): 2.256M prior
December 29 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 12/24 (8:30): 263K expected, 275K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/17 (8:30): 2036K prior
International Trade , November (8:30): -$62.0B prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/24 (10:30): -209 bcf prior
End part 1 of 2
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Sunday, December 18, 2016
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 12-17-16
* * * *
12/17/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: BCRX
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- With a lot to ponder, the stock indices spend last week moving laterally,
assessing where they are.
- Inflows are running, mostly to ETF's, of course after a big market surge.
- Yellen, Republicans appear to want to stand in the way of Trump fiscal
policies.
- Lots of reasons for market to sell, including lots of bulls. Also, there
are a lot of leaders.
The stock market spent the week assessing its situation. Sitting on top of
1.5 month moves that had RUTX, DJ30 and SP400 at their peaks rather extended
in terms of their 200 day SMA. The election result generated a lot of
excitement for economic expansion and 'reflation' trades soared first,
taking other areas with them later. Some struggled thanks to TT's (Trump
Tweets), e.g. defense and drugs, but even those are not down for the count.
SP500 -3.96, -0.18%
NASDAQ -19.69, -0.36%
DJ30 -8.83, -0.04%
SP400 -0.18%
RUTX -0.16%
SOX -1.00%
VOLUME: NYSE +120%, NASDAQ +30%. Quite the quadruple witching session.
A/D: NYSE 1.3:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1
The economic excitement and market moves snowballed into more enthusiasm.
Last week saw $21B inflows into stock funds, mostly ETF's as $31B moved into
ETF's overall. Investors like to play the index game though those can be
the least performing of the funds -- outside perhaps Gartman's . . . ?
Okay, cheap shot.
Inflows are surging as stocks are sitting on top of a 6 week run, a move
without a lot of rest. Moreover, bullish investment advisors moved to
59.6%, now fully in the range of readings that have, over as many years as
you want to count, resulted in market corrections. Okay, a few pullbacks
versus corrections, but typically a correction of some sort results from
readings of this sort at some point hence.
On top of the market centric stories, the political aspects came home to
roost so to speak. The FOMC made the bold move of hiking the Fed Funds rate
25BP for the second time in 13 months and promised an additional 3 hikes in
2017, really clamping down on runaway economic mediocrity in America. This
rapid fire rate hiking (when the 10 year is at 2.59%) surely puts the market
at risk, right?
It wasn't just the Fed threat of an ever so slight slowing of the stimulus
IV drip, but the politicians (those outside the Fed, that is) that had to
get their face time in front of the cameras to justify to us why they
deserve better healthcare than the piece of junk system we are forced to buy
into (no, I am not bitter), not to mention free haircuts, workout
facilities, insider trading privileges (to offset the cost of selling out to
special interests), and the license to lie with impunity.
Paul 'Cybil' Ryan met with Trump a few weeks back and his grass roots
conservative Tea Party personality appeared and gushed pro Trump. When he
slinked back to DC, the 'we cannot ever win an election without agreeing to
unlimited immigration and pandering to every special interest group'
personality appeared as he slow-danced cheek to cheek with Senate curmudgeon
Mitch McConnell as they complained about the deficit.
The congressional bookend twins.
Ah, once again when it suits them they talk of harmful deficits. Where were
these rapscallions when they could have stopped the Obama budget last year?
They were practicing the renowned French tactic of turning and running,
ironically reversed in the movie 'Monty Python and the Holy Grail' when
Arthur and his knights fled the French taunting with the battle cry, 'Run
away!
In any event, despite the Trump transition promises and the stock market
surging in anticipation of infrastructure spending, fiscal stimulus, and
regulatory rollbacks, the politicians are loathe to relinquish their power
and thus, when they get back in the pack they take on their old
characteristics of defending the group against any chance they lose their
power.
Okay, what does that long description of the market climate mean? The rally
is facing its first real test. Hope for expansion, real economic expansion
thanks to growth policies and a rollback of economic strangling policies,
versus the establishment resisting change AND market physics. The market is
assessing the threats, thus working laterally on the week.
I would say that the unholy wedding of Ryan and McConnell holds little
threat. If they see populist support for Trump policies the 'shucks, we were
just kidding' explanations will immediately issue just as they did during
Reagan's tenure. The Fed? Yes, it can be a real problem but the lucky
thing for Trump is the Fed is so far behind the curve it will have to really
work at killing off any real economic success.
That leaves the market's success in rallying as its own worst enemy.
Bullishness at levels that have set off past corrections and sharp advances
that surpass the safe margins above the 200 day SMA that force gravity to
take effect combine to suggest the market will need some kind of test,
typically more than it has shown of late with the weeklong lateral moves.
That said, the market put in another lateral move as it assesses the lay of
the land. Thus, there is already some ongoing consolidation. Per the
bullishness, however, that is likely not enough of a give back, and you
would anticipate a deeper bit to the selling. That is one reason we took
quite a bit of gain 2 weeks back all of that week, i.e. in anticipation of
this week's reassessment lateral slide.
The question is timing. Sentiment indicators tend to front run the market
action, and it can be a week, a few weeks, a couple of months before the
gravity turns them back over. That is one reason we didn't just wholesale
dump everything. There can still be a test/rest as seen last week and a new
break higher before any more serious selling starts. Thus we let good
patterns that remained good continue to work.
There are MANY very good patterns out there in current leading sectors and
in areas that are looking to become or are becoming leadership groups. When
it is all boiled down, it is leadership and its ability to continue setting
up, rallying, consolidating, then rallying some more that keeps a move
alive. Sentiment can get to extremes and stay at extremes for quite some
time before a market finally decides to give in.
Thus, we have some new solid upside plays on the report for this week.
Nothing yet suggests a big rollover in technical terms other than the
percentages above the 200 day SMA. Even so, some indices still have plenty
of upside to work with before they reach extreme levels (e.g. NASDAQ,
SP500). After this week of sideways movement many of the early market
leaders are in position to resume their runs and there are new contenders
coming to the fore to possibly take their shot at moving higher. If they
show the moves, all of our speculation about market tops, extended indices,
political headwinds is just that, speculation.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP500, DJ30, and NASDAQ spent last week mostly working laterally, at least
they did after the Tuesday upside surge to higher highs. Not much change
for SP500 and DJ30 as they hold near new highs, working laterally, very
similar to prior lateral consolidations in the current move higher.
NASDAQ is less extended than the other two large cap indices and its move
last week is very similar, i.e. a lateral move, holding the Tuesday move to
a new high, waiting for the 10 day EMA to catch up. That is typically
bullish action, i.e. holding a gain, consolidating above near support.
RUTX and SP400 spent the week forming a 10 day EMA test similar to the late
November test that led to the most recent leg higher. Wednesday the selling
looked too sharp, but Thursday and Friday they slowed the selling and held
the 10 day EMA. Still a bullish trend, it is just their moves put them well
above the 200 day SMA. If all want to rally, however, these two are in good
position.
SOX: Broke to a higher post-2000 high Thursday, continued upside Friday,
but then flipped rather sharply negative. Still holding the trend, but a
second Friday where SOX started higher only to give it up.
LEADERSHIP
Some of the first leaders in the rally are pressured, e.g. metals, retailers
(though the latter are more late comers), industrial equipment, suggesting
that some are buying into the notion the infrastructure and stimulus may not
be a sure thing.
Metals: It is said economic gains have a copper roof. FCX did not break
higher from its pennant, instead breaking down last week. Steel is hanging
in, e.g. AKS, STLD, but there are stocks in the group struggling, e.g. SID,
SCHN.
Industrial Equipment: CMI, CAT sold on the week but UTX, MMM, TEX are
holding in.
Retail: Box stores clobbered, e.g. JWN, DDS, M, KSS. Specialty not as bad,
e.g. KIRK. Some apparel makers are struggling, e.g. DECK, LB.
Chips: A good week but not a great Friday. XLNX surged only to give a
chunk back. AMAT did the same. SLAB is testing the 20 day EMA after
pushing to a higher rally high. AMD also posted a nice week, surged Friday,
then gave up that move and a bit more. Overall still solid.
Oil: Definitely some issues on the week. APC tested back to the 10 day EMA
and looks solid. HAL is in a 2.5 week lateral move after hitting a higher
rally high. CWEI jumped midweek off the 50 day EMA after a tough 4 weeks.
LGCY still looks good to move higher. Service companies struggled but is
setting up, e.g. PKD, PDS, ESV. Others are setting up, lots of them.
Financial: UP and down the past week as they try to consolidate prior moves
and set up the next. BAC, C, JPM, GS.
Telecom: Some interesting patterns setting up, e.g. SWIR, VIP, MBT, CIEN.
Internet: Trying to make some moves, e.g. LIVE, LLNW. YNDX in a good
setup.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -19.69 points (-0.36%) to close at 5437.16
Volume: 2.708B (+29.95%)
Up Volume: 1.37B (+100M)
Down Volume: 1.84B (+1.027B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.17 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.5 to 1
New Highs: 179 (+4)
New Lows: 42 (-31)
S&P
Stats: -3.96 points (-0.18%) to close at 2258.07
NYSE Volume: 2.2B (+120%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.3 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.28 to 1
New Highs: 121 (+17)
New Lows: 68 (-57)
DJ30
Stats: -8.83 points (-0.04%) to close at 19843.41
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 12.2; -0.59
VXN: 13.23; -0.98
VXO: 11.58; -0.47
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.91; +0.06
12 of 35 sessions over 1.0 on the close. Saw a modest rise in put option
action on the week.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls continued marching to 60, now just 0.4 away. 60 to
65 have signed off on many a market correction since 1998. Bulls are
effectively there, suggesting that the 'tired' indices look that way for a
reason.
Bulls: 59.6 versus 58.8
Bears: 19.2 versus 19.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 59.6 versus 58.8
58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1
versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0
versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9%
versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus
47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus
39.2
Bears: 19.2 versus 19.6
19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6
versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2%
versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7%
versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8%
versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.59% versus 2.59%. Bonds around the world are still
struggling.
Historical: 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473% versus 2.475% versus 2.471%
versus 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394% versus
2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus 2.355%
versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219% versus
2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83%
versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus
1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73%
versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus
1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72%
versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus
1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.0459 versus 1.0415. Tough back end of the week for the euro.
Historical: 1.0415 versus 1.05094 versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus
1.05586 versus 1.06140 versus 1.07745 versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus
1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus
1.066 versus 1.05910 versus 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus
1.0587 versus 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus
1.0858 versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus
1.11406 versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus
1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217
USD/JPY: 117.941 versus 118.257. Big surge post-FOMC for the dollar,
continuing the move upside.
Historical: 118.257 versus 117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus
115.20 versus 114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus
113.52 versus 113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus
111.835 versus 113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus
110.905 versus 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55
Oil: 52.95, +2.05. After giving up the breakout, oil held the 20 day EMA
Thursday then gapped and rallied back to the week's closing high Friday.
Impressive as oil did try the bounce upside we opined about on Thursday.
Gold: 1137.40, +7.60. Ugly gap lower Thursday post-FOMC, modest Friday
recovery, but gold has been . . . hammered.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5437.16
Resistance:
Support:
The November all-time high at 5404
The 2016 trendline at 5385
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 50 day EMA at 5310
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
The 50 day SMA at 5285
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
The 200 day SMA at 5061
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2258.07
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 2246
The 2016 trendline at 2225
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2192
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 50 day SMA at 2174
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 2125
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,843.41
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 19,664
The 20 day EMA 19,407
The 50 day EMA at 18,952
The 50 day SMA at 18,730
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
The 200 day SMA at 18,172
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
December 21 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/17 (7:00): -4.0% prior
Existing Home Sales, November (10:00): 5.50M expected, 5.60M prior
Crude Inventories, 12/17 (10:30): -2.600M prior
December 22 - Thursday
GDP - Third Estimate, Q3 (8:30): 3.3% expected, 3.2% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q3 (8:30): 1.4% expected, 1.4% prior
Initial Claims, 12/17 (8:30): 256K expected, 254K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/10 (8:30): 2018K prior
Durable Orders, November (8:30): -4.5% expected, 4.8% prior
Durable Orders, Ex- , November (8:30): 0.2% expected, 1.0% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, October (9:00): 0.6% prior
Leading Indicators, November (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Personal Income, November (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior
Personal Spending, November (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior
Core PCE Price Index, November (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/17 (10:30): -147 bcf prior
December 23 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment -, December (10:00): 98.2 expected, 98.0 prior
New Home Sales, November (10:00): 573K expected, 563K prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- With a lot to ponder, the stock indices spend last week moving laterally,
assessing where they are.
- Inflows are running, mostly to ETF's, of course after a big market surge.
- Yellen, Republicans appear to want to stand in the way of Trump fiscal
policies.
- Lots of reasons for market to sell, including lots of bulls. Also, there
are a lot of leaders.
The stock market spent the week assessing its situation. Sitting on top of
1.5 month moves that had RUTX, DJ30 and SP400 at their peaks rather extended
in terms of their 200 day SMA. The election result generated a lot of
excitement for economic expansion and 'reflation' trades soared first,
taking other areas with them later. Some struggled thanks to TT's (Trump
Tweets), e.g. defense and drugs, but even those are not down for the count.
SP500 -3.96, -0.18%
NASDAQ -19.69, -0.36%
DJ30 -8.83, -0.04%
SP400 -0.18%
RUTX -0.16%
SOX -1.00%
VOLUME: NYSE +120%, NASDAQ +30%. Quite the quadruple witching session.
A/D: NYSE 1.3:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1
The economic excitement and market moves snowballed into more enthusiasm.
Last week saw $21B inflows into stock funds, mostly ETF's as $31B moved into
ETF's overall. Investors like to play the index game though those can be
the least performing of the funds -- outside perhaps Gartman's . . . ?
Okay, cheap shot.
Inflows are surging as stocks are sitting on top of a 6 week run, a move
without a lot of rest. Moreover, bullish investment advisors moved to
59.6%, now fully in the range of readings that have, over as many years as
you want to count, resulted in market corrections. Okay, a few pullbacks
versus corrections, but typically a correction of some sort results from
readings of this sort at some point hence.
On top of the market centric stories, the political aspects came home to
roost so to speak. The FOMC made the bold move of hiking the Fed Funds rate
25BP for the second time in 13 months and promised an additional 3 hikes in
2017, really clamping down on runaway economic mediocrity in America. This
rapid fire rate hiking (when the 10 year is at 2.59%) surely puts the market
at risk, right?
It wasn't just the Fed threat of an ever so slight slowing of the stimulus
IV drip, but the politicians (those outside the Fed, that is) that had to
get their face time in front of the cameras to justify to us why they
deserve better healthcare than the piece of junk system we are forced to buy
into (no, I am not bitter), not to mention free haircuts, workout
facilities, insider trading privileges (to offset the cost of selling out to
special interests), and the license to lie with impunity.
Paul 'Cybil' Ryan met with Trump a few weeks back and his grass roots
conservative Tea Party personality appeared and gushed pro Trump. When he
slinked back to DC, the 'we cannot ever win an election without agreeing to
unlimited immigration and pandering to every special interest group'
personality appeared as he slow-danced cheek to cheek with Senate curmudgeon
Mitch McConnell as they complained about the deficit.
The congressional bookend twins.
Ah, once again when it suits them they talk of harmful deficits. Where were
these rapscallions when they could have stopped the Obama budget last year?
They were practicing the renowned French tactic of turning and running,
ironically reversed in the movie 'Monty Python and the Holy Grail' when
Arthur and his knights fled the French taunting with the battle cry, 'Run
away!
In any event, despite the Trump transition promises and the stock market
surging in anticipation of infrastructure spending, fiscal stimulus, and
regulatory rollbacks, the politicians are loathe to relinquish their power
and thus, when they get back in the pack they take on their old
characteristics of defending the group against any chance they lose their
power.
Okay, what does that long description of the market climate mean? The rally
is facing its first real test. Hope for expansion, real economic expansion
thanks to growth policies and a rollback of economic strangling policies,
versus the establishment resisting change AND market physics. The market is
assessing the threats, thus working laterally on the week.
I would say that the unholy wedding of Ryan and McConnell holds little
threat. If they see populist support for Trump policies the 'shucks, we were
just kidding' explanations will immediately issue just as they did during
Reagan's tenure. The Fed? Yes, it can be a real problem but the lucky
thing for Trump is the Fed is so far behind the curve it will have to really
work at killing off any real economic success.
That leaves the market's success in rallying as its own worst enemy.
Bullishness at levels that have set off past corrections and sharp advances
that surpass the safe margins above the 200 day SMA that force gravity to
take effect combine to suggest the market will need some kind of test,
typically more than it has shown of late with the weeklong lateral moves.
That said, the market put in another lateral move as it assesses the lay of
the land. Thus, there is already some ongoing consolidation. Per the
bullishness, however, that is likely not enough of a give back, and you
would anticipate a deeper bit to the selling. That is one reason we took
quite a bit of gain 2 weeks back all of that week, i.e. in anticipation of
this week's reassessment lateral slide.
The question is timing. Sentiment indicators tend to front run the market
action, and it can be a week, a few weeks, a couple of months before the
gravity turns them back over. That is one reason we didn't just wholesale
dump everything. There can still be a test/rest as seen last week and a new
break higher before any more serious selling starts. Thus we let good
patterns that remained good continue to work.
There are MANY very good patterns out there in current leading sectors and
in areas that are looking to become or are becoming leadership groups. When
it is all boiled down, it is leadership and its ability to continue setting
up, rallying, consolidating, then rallying some more that keeps a move
alive. Sentiment can get to extremes and stay at extremes for quite some
time before a market finally decides to give in.
Thus, we have some new solid upside plays on the report for this week.
Nothing yet suggests a big rollover in technical terms other than the
percentages above the 200 day SMA. Even so, some indices still have plenty
of upside to work with before they reach extreme levels (e.g. NASDAQ,
SP500). After this week of sideways movement many of the early market
leaders are in position to resume their runs and there are new contenders
coming to the fore to possibly take their shot at moving higher. If they
show the moves, all of our speculation about market tops, extended indices,
political headwinds is just that, speculation.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP500, DJ30, and NASDAQ spent last week mostly working laterally, at least
they did after the Tuesday upside surge to higher highs. Not much change
for SP500 and DJ30 as they hold near new highs, working laterally, very
similar to prior lateral consolidations in the current move higher.
NASDAQ is less extended than the other two large cap indices and its move
last week is very similar, i.e. a lateral move, holding the Tuesday move to
a new high, waiting for the 10 day EMA to catch up. That is typically
bullish action, i.e. holding a gain, consolidating above near support.
RUTX and SP400 spent the week forming a 10 day EMA test similar to the late
November test that led to the most recent leg higher. Wednesday the selling
looked too sharp, but Thursday and Friday they slowed the selling and held
the 10 day EMA. Still a bullish trend, it is just their moves put them well
above the 200 day SMA. If all want to rally, however, these two are in good
position.
SOX: Broke to a higher post-2000 high Thursday, continued upside Friday,
but then flipped rather sharply negative. Still holding the trend, but a
second Friday where SOX started higher only to give it up.
LEADERSHIP
Some of the first leaders in the rally are pressured, e.g. metals, retailers
(though the latter are more late comers), industrial equipment, suggesting
that some are buying into the notion the infrastructure and stimulus may not
be a sure thing.
Metals: It is said economic gains have a copper roof. FCX did not break
higher from its pennant, instead breaking down last week. Steel is hanging
in, e.g. AKS, STLD, but there are stocks in the group struggling, e.g. SID,
SCHN.
Industrial Equipment: CMI, CAT sold on the week but UTX, MMM, TEX are
holding in.
Retail: Box stores clobbered, e.g. JWN, DDS, M, KSS. Specialty not as bad,
e.g. KIRK. Some apparel makers are struggling, e.g. DECK, LB.
Chips: A good week but not a great Friday. XLNX surged only to give a
chunk back. AMAT did the same. SLAB is testing the 20 day EMA after
pushing to a higher rally high. AMD also posted a nice week, surged Friday,
then gave up that move and a bit more. Overall still solid.
Oil: Definitely some issues on the week. APC tested back to the 10 day EMA
and looks solid. HAL is in a 2.5 week lateral move after hitting a higher
rally high. CWEI jumped midweek off the 50 day EMA after a tough 4 weeks.
LGCY still looks good to move higher. Service companies struggled but is
setting up, e.g. PKD, PDS, ESV. Others are setting up, lots of them.
Financial: UP and down the past week as they try to consolidate prior moves
and set up the next. BAC, C, JPM, GS.
Telecom: Some interesting patterns setting up, e.g. SWIR, VIP, MBT, CIEN.
Internet: Trying to make some moves, e.g. LIVE, LLNW. YNDX in a good
setup.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -19.69 points (-0.36%) to close at 5437.16
Volume: 2.708B (+29.95%)
Up Volume: 1.37B (+100M)
Down Volume: 1.84B (+1.027B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.17 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.5 to 1
New Highs: 179 (+4)
New Lows: 42 (-31)
S&P
Stats: -3.96 points (-0.18%) to close at 2258.07
NYSE Volume: 2.2B (+120%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.3 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.28 to 1
New Highs: 121 (+17)
New Lows: 68 (-57)
DJ30
Stats: -8.83 points (-0.04%) to close at 19843.41
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 12.2; -0.59
VXN: 13.23; -0.98
VXO: 11.58; -0.47
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.91; +0.06
12 of 35 sessions over 1.0 on the close. Saw a modest rise in put option
action on the week.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls continued marching to 60, now just 0.4 away. 60 to
65 have signed off on many a market correction since 1998. Bulls are
effectively there, suggesting that the 'tired' indices look that way for a
reason.
Bulls: 59.6 versus 58.8
Bears: 19.2 versus 19.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 59.6 versus 58.8
58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1
versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0
versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9%
versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus
47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus
39.2
Bears: 19.2 versus 19.6
19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6
versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2%
versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7%
versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8%
versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.59% versus 2.59%. Bonds around the world are still
struggling.
Historical: 2.59% versus 2.52% versus 2.473% versus 2.475% versus 2.471%
versus 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394% versus
2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus 2.355%
versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219% versus
2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83%
versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus
1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73%
versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus
1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72%
versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus
1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.0459 versus 1.0415. Tough back end of the week for the euro.
Historical: 1.0415 versus 1.05094 versus 1.0636 versus 1.06326 versus
1.05586 versus 1.06140 versus 1.07745 versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus
1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus
1.066 versus 1.05910 versus 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus
1.0587 versus 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus
1.0858 versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus
1.11406 versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus
1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217
USD/JPY: 117.941 versus 118.257. Big surge post-FOMC for the dollar,
continuing the move upside.
Historical: 118.257 versus 117.397 versus 115.038 versus 115.058 versus
115.20 versus 114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus
113.52 versus 113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus
111.835 versus 113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus
110.905 versus 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55
Oil: 52.95, +2.05. After giving up the breakout, oil held the 20 day EMA
Thursday then gapped and rallied back to the week's closing high Friday.
Impressive as oil did try the bounce upside we opined about on Thursday.
Gold: 1137.40, +7.60. Ugly gap lower Thursday post-FOMC, modest Friday
recovery, but gold has been . . . hammered.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5437.16
Resistance:
Support:
The November all-time high at 5404
The 2016 trendline at 5385
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
The 50 day EMA at 5310
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
The 50 day SMA at 5285
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
The 200 day SMA at 5061
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
S&P 500: Closed at 2258.07
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 2246
The 2016 trendline at 2225
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2192
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 50 day SMA at 2174
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 2125
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,843.41
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 19,664
The 20 day EMA 19,407
The 50 day EMA at 18,952
The 50 day SMA at 18,730
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
The 200 day SMA at 18,172
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
December 21 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/17 (7:00): -4.0% prior
Existing Home Sales, November (10:00): 5.50M expected, 5.60M prior
Crude Inventories, 12/17 (10:30): -2.600M prior
December 22 - Thursday
GDP - Third Estimate, Q3 (8:30): 3.3% expected, 3.2% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q3 (8:30): 1.4% expected, 1.4% prior
Initial Claims, 12/17 (8:30): 256K expected, 254K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/10 (8:30): 2018K prior
Durable Orders, November (8:30): -4.5% expected, 4.8% prior
Durable Orders, Ex- , November (8:30): 0.2% expected, 1.0% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, October (9:00): 0.6% prior
Leading Indicators, November (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Personal Income, November (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior
Personal Spending, November (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior
Core PCE Price Index, November (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/17 (10:30): -147 bcf prior
December 23 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment -, December (10:00): 98.2 expected, 98.0 prior
New Home Sales, November (10:00): 573K expected, 563K prior
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
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Saturday, December 10, 2016
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 12-10-16
* * * *
12/10/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: BAC; C; DIS; JNPR; MAN; PDS
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: CWEI
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
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Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Large cap NYSE soars as smaller caps take a break from leading.
- Sentiment indicators getting to the point you start looking for technical
issues to crop up and suggest a pullback.
- New highs spike Thursday to arguably extreme levels.
- Still plenty of leadership, but lots of stocks are extended and the market
needs new leaders to continue stepping up.
- FOMC announces its yearly rate hike Wednesday.
- DJ30 20,000 likely to act like magnet. After that we see.
A familiar pattern. Stocks start flat and move higher to the close. Stocks
start lower and move higher to the close. Friday they started higher and
rallied into the close.
That low to high action, or for Friday, high to higher, is the hallmark of
this very bullish rally.
Rotation is another feature. Friday money rotated back to large cap stocks
after four big days of upside for the small and midcap indices, particularly
Thursday when those two far outpaced the other the rest of the market. So
far the rotation is the more favorable type where new money enters when the
mood strikes to migrate to another sector. That means those sectors that
take the back seat don't dive lower as the money is cashed out; they simply
rest and set up for the next move.
Volume again surged on DJ30, making back-to-back sessions of volume not seen
since 2013 and just a few times in the past decade. That is still somewhat
worrisome as money piles into a few Dow stocks. Volume fell on NYSE and
NASDAQ Friday, still above average on NASDAQ, sliding below average on NYSE.
Not the best trade but still above average on NASDAQ as it pushes higher.
All week NASDAQ showed stronger, above average volume, a sign of
accumulation.
VIX fell as the indices rose Friday, just as it should. It climbed
Wednesday and Thursday as SP500 climbed. That rise on upside sessions
suggests pullback coming in the not too distant future, but it was not that
evident, at least for DJ30 and SP500 as they closed out near the session
highs.
As for NASDAQ, SP400, SOX and RUTX, the action was more problematic. NASDAQ
gapped upside but could not move much farther. Indeed, SOX gapped higher
and then ended up lower. SP400 did likewise but just a modest loss. RUTX
needed a late push higher to close up 1.7 points. No reversals at all, just
some impressive moves higher for the entire week and a bit tired by Friday.
SP500 13.34, 0.59%
NASDAQ 27.14, 0.50%
DJ30 142.04, 0.72%
SP400 -0.19%
RUTX 0.12%
SOX -0.36%
VOLUME: NYSE -7%, NASDAQ -12%. Trade fell to below average on NYSE; not
the same accumulation seen on the big Wednesday move. Much of the volume on
the week for NYSE was somewhat anemic. NASDAQ trade faded but for the
fourth straight session logged above average volume. Plenty of accumulation
in NASDAQ stocks, not so much in NYSE tocks.
A/D: NYSE just slightly positive. NASDAQ 1.4:1. Quite anemic. The Friday
action was very focused, very narrow. Breadth never really soared on the
week, the best showing a 3:1 on NYSE Wednesday when the small and midcaps
led big.
I referenced a possible pullback in the not too distant future based on the
VIX rising as SP500 rose Wednesday and Thursday. Hey, these are big moves
and a pullback is no big deal. Indeed, new highs spiked Thursday well over
500, getting to extreme levels upside. Seasonally, this is a strong period
for the stock market, the last weeks of December.
On top of that there is Dow 20,000. With just 243 points to go, that is
acting as a flame for the moth. Okay, maybe not such a good analogy as the
moth dies when it gets to the flame. Perhaps a magnet drawing it closer?
Perhaps moth is not bad, however. This is a heck of a run and it will need
to test. The VIX action this past week historically suggests a pullback
coming, and after a run to DJ30 20,000 that is a very good setup for a test.
That leaves you looking at a big run for the week, some questionable VIX
action, but still strong leadership from many sectors. The VIX action seems
somewhat less significant looking at the move's internals, and with Dow 20K
so close, so we don't just want to shut down picking up positions. We
bought some good ones on the week, and we took some great gain all week
long, particularly Friday as per our plan. We are looking for more good
positions regardless of the move thus far as money rotating to new sectors
will find stocks that are in position to rally but have not made the moves
yet. In a continuing healthy market, when money finds them they jump, and
we want to be in on those moves regardless of what VIX says.
After all, VIX is more a sentiment indicator than a hard market indicator
such as leadership and price/volume action. You don't make your final
decision based upon its readings. You maintain a logical plan and factor it
into the equation, but it is just part of the equation. That is why we took
partial gains and didn't just close out positions based upon the Wednesday
and Thursday VIX moves.
We did take some solid gain on BAC, C, DIS, JNPR, MAN, PDS -- they are still
moving but our plan was to take some gain after a week of big upside. So,
we took some gain, left good portions of the plays to work as the market is
still moving higher. And frankly if there are more solid stocks that are in
position and make the moves, we take new positions because, though there are
some adverse indications, the best indicator is leadership in position and
making good moves.
NEWS/ECONOMY
A lot of the economic news right now is in our opinion 'old' news because it
represents the end of an 8 year turn to more regulation and taxation that
saw the first 10 year period with annual GDP below 3% since the Great
Depression. With a new administration in the wings and looking to be much
more pro-growth, the view has to be for the future, not the tail end of the
second economic 'malaise' in my lifetime.
There are indications, however, even now. Our own surveys as well as those
from many other more official survey sources show that enthusiasm and
optimism has jumped. Michigan Sentiment hit an 11 year high as reported
Friday (98.0 versus 94.3 expected versus 93.8 prior).
More than just sentiment, but as a direct corollary to it from what we hear,
businesses are pulling the trigger on equipment and other capital purchases
they have put off. Oil industry activity has jumped thanks to rising prices
and to what is perceived a more friendly administration coming in. Machine
shops, after slowing the past year and more with the oilfield bust, are
suddenly backlogged with 'rush' and 'emergency' jobs.
I said it two years back when the presidential campaigns were gearing up:
the next President could oversee a huge boom by simply rolling back taxes
and regulations that have hamstrung business and as a result pushed a lot of
money that could be invested into idle uses such as stock buybacks,
acquisitions, and dividends. Those do not produce anything new. The risk
for creating new is too high given the lowered rewards caused by extra taxes
and lower demand. So, the money is idled.
The right policies that once again make it PAY to invest in growing your
business will do just that. It is the age-old truism that I ask each person
I talk with who is seeking an elected office: if you pay someone to do
something or NOT to do something, they will do it. In terms of taxes and
regulations running higher, you are paying them NOT to do anything, exactly
what we have seen in the US the past 8 to 10 years.
If that changes and suddenly companies are paid to invest because they can
now get a great return on their investment, the money will run to
investment. You suddenly turn the tables from making it more profitable to
NOT do anything to making it cost them to just buy back stock and pay
dividends.
THE MARKET
The week saw rotation through the market with small, midcaps and chips
starting the move, large caps joining in Wednesday, small and midcaps again
taking point Thursday with some new moves in techs as well, then Friday the
NYSE large caps again while the others rested. So far the rotation is with
new money, leaving all boats rising. That is very healthy market action and
with the Dow getting support from a new high on DJ20 transports and flirting
with 20,000, there appears to be upside impetus near term, then we see what
the VIX action on Wednesday and Thursday as it rose with SP500 means to the
current market rally.
CHARTS
DJ30: After already up for two weeks after breaking higher from the
mid-November lateral consolidation, the Dow exploded higher Wednesday and
then again Friday on some massive volume. Wednesday trade was huge, the
kind seen just now and then in the past decade. It was lower Thursday and
Friday, but not by much. Huge trade going into these stocks. The Dow is
closing in on 20K, and with less than 250 points it looks as if it is going
to make a run at that level. Then we see what happens. It is now 9.1% over
its 200 day SMA. At 20,000 it is roughly 10.5%. That is where you start
looking for signs DJ30 is struggling as historically it tends to correct
after getting that far above its longer term MA.
SP500: Surged through its 2016 up trendline Wednesday and continued to
higher new highs into Friday, closing at the week at the high. Not a lot of
trade though Wednesday was above average as SP500 surged for the big move of
the week. Not impressive volume, but hard to argue with the results. SP500
is now 6.6% over its 200 day SMA, still plenty of room to run by this
measure.
RUTX: Huge Monday to Thursday, clearing to a new high. Friday RUTX gapped
to a very tight doji. Perhaps it is overdone near term, but RUTX also just
rallied off a weeklong test of the 10 day EMA the prior week so it has had a
rest. 17% above its 200 day SMA, however, and that is at the point where
RUTX, a growth index, historically would struggle. So, perhaps Friday is
just a continuation doji in a new rally off that weeklong test, but we will
have to see how it reacts.
SP400: Powerful week here similar to RUTX, coming off a week of rest and
relaxation back to the 10 day EMA. Strong, then Friday a day off with a
modest loss on lighter NYSE trade. No distribution, so perhaps just a day
off before resuming the run. Growth index same as RUTX, so they likely
trade hand in hand. 12% over its 200 day SMA, not as far along as RUTX, but
still high enough to start watching for signs of struggle. Friday was a
pause but thus far nothing major.
NASDAQ: A strong 5-session move to a new high, gapping higher Friday,
holding a gain but closing off the high. Volume faded but still above
average. Techs got a new boost on the week with WDC earnings among others,
and MSFT breaking to a higher high Friday. NASDAQ posted a breakout on
stronger, above average volume and you cannot argue with that. It is also
8% over its 200 day SMA, historically not that high for NASDAQ.
SOX: Strong run on the week, off the 50 day MA's to a new post-2000 high by
Thursday. A gap higher Friday then a reversal for a modest loss. Important
to watch SOX on its next move. New high immediately sold, important though
volatile leadership group. 21% above its 200 day SMA on the Friday high.
That's pretty darn high.
LEADERSHIP
Still plenty of leadership in the market with rotation to some new areas.
Metals: Not a lot of leadership Friday as metals, particularly steel,
struggled. AKS, STLD, X all faded, looking as if they are going to test the
10 day EMA. FCX (copper) is already in a 2+ week pennant consolidation,
attempting to set up the next rally. AA (aluminum) found a new high Friday.
Retail: Attempting to emerge as a leader. Some good moves on the week were
sold a bit Friday while others continued upside. KSS sold back some of its
good move. Others hanging in: KIRK, JWN. Others are still set to move, e.g.
TJX, ROST, DDS.
Financial: Not as strong Friday, but a strong week. BAC, C, JPM, GS all
slower on the day but a big week.
Transports: A strong week as DJ20 broke to a new all-time high. Friday
more of a pause as rails (CSX) were flat. Airlines were up but some showed
some reversing Friday, e.g. HA with a big doji along with DAL, SAVE.
Trucking lost some ground after a long run upside. JBHT surged to another
higher high then reversed to a sizeable loss. SAIA showed a doji closing
off the high.
Chips: A strong week, moving with the small and midcaps. Friday a similar
result as those, with some fades though not terrible. AMD, XLNX, MU showed
doji after good runs. AVGO announced earnings and surged. Strong overall
with a very important week coming as SOX bounced off the 50 day MA's to a
new high and is now testing that high.
Oil: Up on the week but not a huge move. APC bounced off the 10 day EMA to
match last week's higher high. Big service companies are consolidating
laterally, e.g. HAL, SLB. Smaller service companies are moving well, e.g.
ESV, PKD. Drilling is good, e.g. RIG's huge move along with DO blasting off
Friday. Still a very solid group.
Telecom: Picked up last week. CAMP broke over resistance Friday. S broke
higher on the week, tested into Friday. GLW ditto.
Internet: Some good patterns. LIVE posted a 1:6 reverse split and moved up
well before and after. LLNW looks good. AKAM had an off Friday, but its
pattern is still solid.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +27.14 points (+0.5%) to close at 5444.5
Volume: 1.956B (-11.58%)
Up Volume: 1.05B (-440M)
Down Volume: 908.79M (+207.67M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.39 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.05 to 1
New Highs: 438 (-124). New highs hit 562 on Thursday. That is getting
extreme, and extremes tend to precede moves back toward the mean.
New Lows: 25 (-5)
S&P
Stats: +13.34 points (+0.59%) to close at 2259.53
NYSE Volume: 894.8M (-7.27%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.03 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.63 to 1
New Highs: 336 (-195). New highs hit 531 Thursday, also a bit extreme.
New Lows: 114 (+10)
DJ30
Stats: +142.04 points (+0.72%) to close at 19756.85
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.75; -0.89. VIX moved lower as stocks rallied Friday, the typical
relation after that aberration Wednesday and Thursday when VIX rose with the
market. Overall VIX is not trending higher as the market trends higher, and
thus no indication of a major top, but possibly a near term one approaching.
Given the kind of moves the indices have shown, that is no surprise, VIX or
not, right?
VXN: 14.27; -0.55
VXO: 10.85; -2.01
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.82; +0.07
12 of 30 sessions over 1.0 on the close. Thursday showed the lowest reading
in quite some time. Downside capitulation, something to watch along with
the bulls as it shows a significant drop in put activity.
Bulls and Bears: Big jump in bulls up to near 59. Rapidly approaching 60
that starts waving the red flag for the top of market moves. Has done that
for at least the past 30 years. Bears fell hard but still have room to
give. Bulls are a more immediate concern at this point.
Bulls: 58.8 versus 56.3
Bears: 19.6 versus 22.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.8 versus 56.3
56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5
versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9%
versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus
45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 19.6 versus 22.3
22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8
versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6%
versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus
23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6%
versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9%
versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.471% versus 2.40%. Lower low on this selling for TLT as
the downtrend below the 10 day EMA remains firmly intact.
Historical: 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394%
versus 2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus
2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219%
versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus
1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83%
versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus
1.73% versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80%
versus 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus
1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569%
versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.05586 versus 1.06140. Dollar has rallied to end the week,
pushing right back to the November low where the euro jumped Monday.
Historical: 1.06140 versus 1.07745 versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus
1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus
1.066 versus 1.05910 versus 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus
1.0587 versus 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus
1.0858 versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus
1.11406 versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus
1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217
USD/JPY: 115.20 versus 114.23. Broke to a higher high, clearing a week+
lateral consolidation along the 10 day EMA.
Historical: 114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus
113.52 versus 113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus
111.835 versus 113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus
110.905 versus 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55
Oil: 51.50, +0.66. Monday oil tested the 52 to 52.50 level hit in October
where it immediately reversed and sold to 43. It rallied back to that level
and sold again, falling hard Wednesday to the 10 day EMA. Thursday and
Friday oil bounced back up and looks as if it will try to challenge that
level again.
Gold: 1161.90, -10.50. Sold to a lower low in this selloff with the 10 day
EMA acting as resistance. Now at last week's intraday low that corresponds
to the early February lower gap point. Nothing really suggests it tries a
bounce yet.
MONDAY
A boatload of data is due next week including the FOMC decision on Wednesday
afternoon. Surely the Fed will raise rates as it did a year ago and then
danced around for the next year as if it had to urinate but had no place to
do so. Pathetic. Again, surely it will hike. Surely. Right?
Wednesday also sees Retail sales, PPI, Industrial Production and Capacity.
CPI on Thursday, Philly Fed, Empire manufacturing.
Lots of data but does it matter right now? Improving data doesn't hurt, but
what the new administration can do with new policies is more important than
the last huffs and puffs from the economic malaise resulting from the past 8
years of policies, regulations, and taxes.
The market action is the key for us. Big moves last week rotating from
group to group, index to index. Still good technical action for the most
part with NASDAQ showing good volume on the upside, RUTX and SP400 blasting
upside as a sign of strong growth.
At the same time there are some structural and sentiment issues. RUTX,
SP400, DJ30 are at or near levels above their 200 day SMA where,
historically, they have started to struggle. Bullish sentiment is at 59,
right below levels where it has topped and the market has corrected. VIX
had those two aberrant sessions, rising along with the stock market, an
event that historically leads to some selling back off a 52 week high. New
highs are getting -- high, at least on NASDAQ.
Definitely things to watch but not the end word on the move. Still good
leadership, others trying to step up, positive rotation.
There is also DJ30 hitting the 20K level. That is a magnet to draw the Dow
and market higher. Once there, then there could very well be a pullback to
test this move. Hitting milestones such as that are funny: the indices run
to them, then once there is profit taking.
So, we are not too crazy about chasing a lot of new positions but will play
those that we can make money on during another run while Dow seeks 20,000.
We also would let our existing plays tag along for that run and look to bank
more gain as they follow DJ30 to 20K. At that point we expect a test or
some larger fade, but that is just an expectation based upon typical
patterns. Trump and his atypical approach have led to some atypical results
elsewhere so we will continue watching good stocks in good position and see
if they provide opportunity for us.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5444.50
Resistance:
Support:
The November all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September all-time closing high.
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
The 50 day EMA at 5281
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 5271
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
The 200 day SMA at 5042
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 2259.53
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2216
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2177
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 50 day SMA at 2163
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 2118
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,756.85
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 19,361
The 50 day EMA at 18,756
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 50 day SMA at 18,572
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
The 200 day SMA at 18,100
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
December 9 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, December (10:00): 98.0 actual versus 94.3 expected, 93.8
prior (no revisions)
Wholesale Inventories, October (10:00): -0.4% actual versus -0.4% expected,
0.1% prior (no revisions)
December 12 - Monday
Treasury Budget, November (14:00): -$135.0B expected, -$56.8B prior
December 13 - Tuesday
Export Prices ex-ag., November (8:30): 0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, November (8:30): -0.1% prior
December 14 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/10 (7:00): -0.7% prior
Retail Sales, November (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.8% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, November (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.8% prior
PPI, November (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Core PPI, November (8:30): 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Industrial Productio, November (9:15): -0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Capacity Utilization, November (9:15): 75.1% expected, 75.3% prior
Business Inventories, October (10:00): -0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 12/10 (10:30): -2.389M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, December (14:00): 0.625% expected, 0.375% prior
December 15 - Thursday
CPI, November (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Core CPI, November (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 12/10 (8:30): 256K expected, 258K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/03 (8:30): 2005K prior
Philadelphia Fed, December (8:30): 9.0 expected, 7.6 prior
Empire Manufacturing, December (8:30): 3.0 expected, 1.5 prior
Current Account Bala, Q3 (8:30): -$111.6B expected, -$119.9B prior
NAHB Housing Market , December (10:00): 63 expected, 63 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/10 (10:30): -42 bcf prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, October (16:00): -$26.2B prior
December 16 - Friday
Housing Starts, November (8:30): 1225K expected, 1323K prior
End part 1 of 3
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12/10/2016 Investment House Daily
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Entry alerts: None issued
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Large cap NYSE soars as smaller caps take a break from leading.
- Sentiment indicators getting to the point you start looking for technical
issues to crop up and suggest a pullback.
- New highs spike Thursday to arguably extreme levels.
- Still plenty of leadership, but lots of stocks are extended and the market
needs new leaders to continue stepping up.
- FOMC announces its yearly rate hike Wednesday.
- DJ30 20,000 likely to act like magnet. After that we see.
A familiar pattern. Stocks start flat and move higher to the close. Stocks
start lower and move higher to the close. Friday they started higher and
rallied into the close.
That low to high action, or for Friday, high to higher, is the hallmark of
this very bullish rally.
Rotation is another feature. Friday money rotated back to large cap stocks
after four big days of upside for the small and midcap indices, particularly
Thursday when those two far outpaced the other the rest of the market. So
far the rotation is the more favorable type where new money enters when the
mood strikes to migrate to another sector. That means those sectors that
take the back seat don't dive lower as the money is cashed out; they simply
rest and set up for the next move.
Volume again surged on DJ30, making back-to-back sessions of volume not seen
since 2013 and just a few times in the past decade. That is still somewhat
worrisome as money piles into a few Dow stocks. Volume fell on NYSE and
NASDAQ Friday, still above average on NASDAQ, sliding below average on NYSE.
Not the best trade but still above average on NASDAQ as it pushes higher.
All week NASDAQ showed stronger, above average volume, a sign of
accumulation.
VIX fell as the indices rose Friday, just as it should. It climbed
Wednesday and Thursday as SP500 climbed. That rise on upside sessions
suggests pullback coming in the not too distant future, but it was not that
evident, at least for DJ30 and SP500 as they closed out near the session
highs.
As for NASDAQ, SP400, SOX and RUTX, the action was more problematic. NASDAQ
gapped upside but could not move much farther. Indeed, SOX gapped higher
and then ended up lower. SP400 did likewise but just a modest loss. RUTX
needed a late push higher to close up 1.7 points. No reversals at all, just
some impressive moves higher for the entire week and a bit tired by Friday.
SP500 13.34, 0.59%
NASDAQ 27.14, 0.50%
DJ30 142.04, 0.72%
SP400 -0.19%
RUTX 0.12%
SOX -0.36%
VOLUME: NYSE -7%, NASDAQ -12%. Trade fell to below average on NYSE; not
the same accumulation seen on the big Wednesday move. Much of the volume on
the week for NYSE was somewhat anemic. NASDAQ trade faded but for the
fourth straight session logged above average volume. Plenty of accumulation
in NASDAQ stocks, not so much in NYSE tocks.
A/D: NYSE just slightly positive. NASDAQ 1.4:1. Quite anemic. The Friday
action was very focused, very narrow. Breadth never really soared on the
week, the best showing a 3:1 on NYSE Wednesday when the small and midcaps
led big.
I referenced a possible pullback in the not too distant future based on the
VIX rising as SP500 rose Wednesday and Thursday. Hey, these are big moves
and a pullback is no big deal. Indeed, new highs spiked Thursday well over
500, getting to extreme levels upside. Seasonally, this is a strong period
for the stock market, the last weeks of December.
On top of that there is Dow 20,000. With just 243 points to go, that is
acting as a flame for the moth. Okay, maybe not such a good analogy as the
moth dies when it gets to the flame. Perhaps a magnet drawing it closer?
Perhaps moth is not bad, however. This is a heck of a run and it will need
to test. The VIX action this past week historically suggests a pullback
coming, and after a run to DJ30 20,000 that is a very good setup for a test.
That leaves you looking at a big run for the week, some questionable VIX
action, but still strong leadership from many sectors. The VIX action seems
somewhat less significant looking at the move's internals, and with Dow 20K
so close, so we don't just want to shut down picking up positions. We
bought some good ones on the week, and we took some great gain all week
long, particularly Friday as per our plan. We are looking for more good
positions regardless of the move thus far as money rotating to new sectors
will find stocks that are in position to rally but have not made the moves
yet. In a continuing healthy market, when money finds them they jump, and
we want to be in on those moves regardless of what VIX says.
After all, VIX is more a sentiment indicator than a hard market indicator
such as leadership and price/volume action. You don't make your final
decision based upon its readings. You maintain a logical plan and factor it
into the equation, but it is just part of the equation. That is why we took
partial gains and didn't just close out positions based upon the Wednesday
and Thursday VIX moves.
We did take some solid gain on BAC, C, DIS, JNPR, MAN, PDS -- they are still
moving but our plan was to take some gain after a week of big upside. So,
we took some gain, left good portions of the plays to work as the market is
still moving higher. And frankly if there are more solid stocks that are in
position and make the moves, we take new positions because, though there are
some adverse indications, the best indicator is leadership in position and
making good moves.
NEWS/ECONOMY
A lot of the economic news right now is in our opinion 'old' news because it
represents the end of an 8 year turn to more regulation and taxation that
saw the first 10 year period with annual GDP below 3% since the Great
Depression. With a new administration in the wings and looking to be much
more pro-growth, the view has to be for the future, not the tail end of the
second economic 'malaise' in my lifetime.
There are indications, however, even now. Our own surveys as well as those
from many other more official survey sources show that enthusiasm and
optimism has jumped. Michigan Sentiment hit an 11 year high as reported
Friday (98.0 versus 94.3 expected versus 93.8 prior).
More than just sentiment, but as a direct corollary to it from what we hear,
businesses are pulling the trigger on equipment and other capital purchases
they have put off. Oil industry activity has jumped thanks to rising prices
and to what is perceived a more friendly administration coming in. Machine
shops, after slowing the past year and more with the oilfield bust, are
suddenly backlogged with 'rush' and 'emergency' jobs.
I said it two years back when the presidential campaigns were gearing up:
the next President could oversee a huge boom by simply rolling back taxes
and regulations that have hamstrung business and as a result pushed a lot of
money that could be invested into idle uses such as stock buybacks,
acquisitions, and dividends. Those do not produce anything new. The risk
for creating new is too high given the lowered rewards caused by extra taxes
and lower demand. So, the money is idled.
The right policies that once again make it PAY to invest in growing your
business will do just that. It is the age-old truism that I ask each person
I talk with who is seeking an elected office: if you pay someone to do
something or NOT to do something, they will do it. In terms of taxes and
regulations running higher, you are paying them NOT to do anything, exactly
what we have seen in the US the past 8 to 10 years.
If that changes and suddenly companies are paid to invest because they can
now get a great return on their investment, the money will run to
investment. You suddenly turn the tables from making it more profitable to
NOT do anything to making it cost them to just buy back stock and pay
dividends.
THE MARKET
The week saw rotation through the market with small, midcaps and chips
starting the move, large caps joining in Wednesday, small and midcaps again
taking point Thursday with some new moves in techs as well, then Friday the
NYSE large caps again while the others rested. So far the rotation is with
new money, leaving all boats rising. That is very healthy market action and
with the Dow getting support from a new high on DJ20 transports and flirting
with 20,000, there appears to be upside impetus near term, then we see what
the VIX action on Wednesday and Thursday as it rose with SP500 means to the
current market rally.
CHARTS
DJ30: After already up for two weeks after breaking higher from the
mid-November lateral consolidation, the Dow exploded higher Wednesday and
then again Friday on some massive volume. Wednesday trade was huge, the
kind seen just now and then in the past decade. It was lower Thursday and
Friday, but not by much. Huge trade going into these stocks. The Dow is
closing in on 20K, and with less than 250 points it looks as if it is going
to make a run at that level. Then we see what happens. It is now 9.1% over
its 200 day SMA. At 20,000 it is roughly 10.5%. That is where you start
looking for signs DJ30 is struggling as historically it tends to correct
after getting that far above its longer term MA.
SP500: Surged through its 2016 up trendline Wednesday and continued to
higher new highs into Friday, closing at the week at the high. Not a lot of
trade though Wednesday was above average as SP500 surged for the big move of
the week. Not impressive volume, but hard to argue with the results. SP500
is now 6.6% over its 200 day SMA, still plenty of room to run by this
measure.
RUTX: Huge Monday to Thursday, clearing to a new high. Friday RUTX gapped
to a very tight doji. Perhaps it is overdone near term, but RUTX also just
rallied off a weeklong test of the 10 day EMA the prior week so it has had a
rest. 17% above its 200 day SMA, however, and that is at the point where
RUTX, a growth index, historically would struggle. So, perhaps Friday is
just a continuation doji in a new rally off that weeklong test, but we will
have to see how it reacts.
SP400: Powerful week here similar to RUTX, coming off a week of rest and
relaxation back to the 10 day EMA. Strong, then Friday a day off with a
modest loss on lighter NYSE trade. No distribution, so perhaps just a day
off before resuming the run. Growth index same as RUTX, so they likely
trade hand in hand. 12% over its 200 day SMA, not as far along as RUTX, but
still high enough to start watching for signs of struggle. Friday was a
pause but thus far nothing major.
NASDAQ: A strong 5-session move to a new high, gapping higher Friday,
holding a gain but closing off the high. Volume faded but still above
average. Techs got a new boost on the week with WDC earnings among others,
and MSFT breaking to a higher high Friday. NASDAQ posted a breakout on
stronger, above average volume and you cannot argue with that. It is also
8% over its 200 day SMA, historically not that high for NASDAQ.
SOX: Strong run on the week, off the 50 day MA's to a new post-2000 high by
Thursday. A gap higher Friday then a reversal for a modest loss. Important
to watch SOX on its next move. New high immediately sold, important though
volatile leadership group. 21% above its 200 day SMA on the Friday high.
That's pretty darn high.
LEADERSHIP
Still plenty of leadership in the market with rotation to some new areas.
Metals: Not a lot of leadership Friday as metals, particularly steel,
struggled. AKS, STLD, X all faded, looking as if they are going to test the
10 day EMA. FCX (copper) is already in a 2+ week pennant consolidation,
attempting to set up the next rally. AA (aluminum) found a new high Friday.
Retail: Attempting to emerge as a leader. Some good moves on the week were
sold a bit Friday while others continued upside. KSS sold back some of its
good move. Others hanging in: KIRK, JWN. Others are still set to move, e.g.
TJX, ROST, DDS.
Financial: Not as strong Friday, but a strong week. BAC, C, JPM, GS all
slower on the day but a big week.
Transports: A strong week as DJ20 broke to a new all-time high. Friday
more of a pause as rails (CSX) were flat. Airlines were up but some showed
some reversing Friday, e.g. HA with a big doji along with DAL, SAVE.
Trucking lost some ground after a long run upside. JBHT surged to another
higher high then reversed to a sizeable loss. SAIA showed a doji closing
off the high.
Chips: A strong week, moving with the small and midcaps. Friday a similar
result as those, with some fades though not terrible. AMD, XLNX, MU showed
doji after good runs. AVGO announced earnings and surged. Strong overall
with a very important week coming as SOX bounced off the 50 day MA's to a
new high and is now testing that high.
Oil: Up on the week but not a huge move. APC bounced off the 10 day EMA to
match last week's higher high. Big service companies are consolidating
laterally, e.g. HAL, SLB. Smaller service companies are moving well, e.g.
ESV, PKD. Drilling is good, e.g. RIG's huge move along with DO blasting off
Friday. Still a very solid group.
Telecom: Picked up last week. CAMP broke over resistance Friday. S broke
higher on the week, tested into Friday. GLW ditto.
Internet: Some good patterns. LIVE posted a 1:6 reverse split and moved up
well before and after. LLNW looks good. AKAM had an off Friday, but its
pattern is still solid.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +27.14 points (+0.5%) to close at 5444.5
Volume: 1.956B (-11.58%)
Up Volume: 1.05B (-440M)
Down Volume: 908.79M (+207.67M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.39 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.05 to 1
New Highs: 438 (-124). New highs hit 562 on Thursday. That is getting
extreme, and extremes tend to precede moves back toward the mean.
New Lows: 25 (-5)
S&P
Stats: +13.34 points (+0.59%) to close at 2259.53
NYSE Volume: 894.8M (-7.27%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.03 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.63 to 1
New Highs: 336 (-195). New highs hit 531 Thursday, also a bit extreme.
New Lows: 114 (+10)
DJ30
Stats: +142.04 points (+0.72%) to close at 19756.85
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 11.75; -0.89. VIX moved lower as stocks rallied Friday, the typical
relation after that aberration Wednesday and Thursday when VIX rose with the
market. Overall VIX is not trending higher as the market trends higher, and
thus no indication of a major top, but possibly a near term one approaching.
Given the kind of moves the indices have shown, that is no surprise, VIX or
not, right?
VXN: 14.27; -0.55
VXO: 10.85; -2.01
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.82; +0.07
12 of 30 sessions over 1.0 on the close. Thursday showed the lowest reading
in quite some time. Downside capitulation, something to watch along with
the bulls as it shows a significant drop in put activity.
Bulls and Bears: Big jump in bulls up to near 59. Rapidly approaching 60
that starts waving the red flag for the top of market moves. Has done that
for at least the past 30 years. Bears fell hard but still have room to
give. Bulls are a more immediate concern at this point.
Bulls: 58.8 versus 56.3
Bears: 19.6 versus 22.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 58.8 versus 56.3
56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5
versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9%
versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus
45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 19.6 versus 22.3
22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8
versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6%
versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus
23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6%
versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9%
versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.471% versus 2.40%. Lower low on this selling for TLT as
the downtrend below the 10 day EMA remains firmly intact.
Historical: 2.40% versus 2.349% versus 2.39% versus 2.396% versus 2.394%
versus 2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36% versus
2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus 2.219%
versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus
1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83%
versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus
1.73% versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80%
versus 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus
1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569%
versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.05586 versus 1.06140. Dollar has rallied to end the week,
pushing right back to the November low where the euro jumped Monday.
Historical: 1.06140 versus 1.07745 versus 1.07194 versus 1.07614 versus
1.06638 versus 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus
1.066 versus 1.05910 versus 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus
1.0587 versus 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus
1.0858 versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus
1.11406 versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus
1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217
USD/JPY: 115.20 versus 114.23. Broke to a higher high, clearing a week+
lateral consolidation along the 10 day EMA.
Historical: 114.23 versus 113.325 versus 113.993 versus 113.601 versus
113.52 versus 113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus
111.835 versus 113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus
110.905 versus 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55
Oil: 51.50, +0.66. Monday oil tested the 52 to 52.50 level hit in October
where it immediately reversed and sold to 43. It rallied back to that level
and sold again, falling hard Wednesday to the 10 day EMA. Thursday and
Friday oil bounced back up and looks as if it will try to challenge that
level again.
Gold: 1161.90, -10.50. Sold to a lower low in this selloff with the 10 day
EMA acting as resistance. Now at last week's intraday low that corresponds
to the early February lower gap point. Nothing really suggests it tries a
bounce yet.
MONDAY
A boatload of data is due next week including the FOMC decision on Wednesday
afternoon. Surely the Fed will raise rates as it did a year ago and then
danced around for the next year as if it had to urinate but had no place to
do so. Pathetic. Again, surely it will hike. Surely. Right?
Wednesday also sees Retail sales, PPI, Industrial Production and Capacity.
CPI on Thursday, Philly Fed, Empire manufacturing.
Lots of data but does it matter right now? Improving data doesn't hurt, but
what the new administration can do with new policies is more important than
the last huffs and puffs from the economic malaise resulting from the past 8
years of policies, regulations, and taxes.
The market action is the key for us. Big moves last week rotating from
group to group, index to index. Still good technical action for the most
part with NASDAQ showing good volume on the upside, RUTX and SP400 blasting
upside as a sign of strong growth.
At the same time there are some structural and sentiment issues. RUTX,
SP400, DJ30 are at or near levels above their 200 day SMA where,
historically, they have started to struggle. Bullish sentiment is at 59,
right below levels where it has topped and the market has corrected. VIX
had those two aberrant sessions, rising along with the stock market, an
event that historically leads to some selling back off a 52 week high. New
highs are getting -- high, at least on NASDAQ.
Definitely things to watch but not the end word on the move. Still good
leadership, others trying to step up, positive rotation.
There is also DJ30 hitting the 20K level. That is a magnet to draw the Dow
and market higher. Once there, then there could very well be a pullback to
test this move. Hitting milestones such as that are funny: the indices run
to them, then once there is profit taking.
So, we are not too crazy about chasing a lot of new positions but will play
those that we can make money on during another run while Dow seeks 20,000.
We also would let our existing plays tag along for that run and look to bank
more gain as they follow DJ30 to 20K. At that point we expect a test or
some larger fade, but that is just an expectation based upon typical
patterns. Trump and his atypical approach have led to some atypical results
elsewhere so we will continue watching good stocks in good position and see
if they provide opportunity for us.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5444.50
Resistance:
Support:
The November all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September all-time closing high.
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
The 50 day EMA at 5281
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 5271
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
The 200 day SMA at 5042
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 2259.53
Resistance:
Support:
The 2016 trendline at 2216
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2177
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 50 day SMA at 2163
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 2118
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,756.85
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 19,361
The 50 day EMA at 18,756
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 50 day SMA at 18,572
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
The 200 day SMA at 18,100
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
December 9 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, December (10:00): 98.0 actual versus 94.3 expected, 93.8
prior (no revisions)
Wholesale Inventories, October (10:00): -0.4% actual versus -0.4% expected,
0.1% prior (no revisions)
December 12 - Monday
Treasury Budget, November (14:00): -$135.0B expected, -$56.8B prior
December 13 - Tuesday
Export Prices ex-ag., November (8:30): 0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, November (8:30): -0.1% prior
December 14 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/10 (7:00): -0.7% prior
Retail Sales, November (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.8% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, November (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.8% prior
PPI, November (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Core PPI, November (8:30): 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Industrial Productio, November (9:15): -0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Capacity Utilization, November (9:15): 75.1% expected, 75.3% prior
Business Inventories, October (10:00): -0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Crude Inventories, 12/10 (10:30): -2.389M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, December (14:00): 0.625% expected, 0.375% prior
December 15 - Thursday
CPI, November (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Core CPI, November (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 12/10 (8:30): 256K expected, 258K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/03 (8:30): 2005K prior
Philadelphia Fed, December (8:30): 9.0 expected, 7.6 prior
Empire Manufacturing, December (8:30): 3.0 expected, 1.5 prior
Current Account Bala, Q3 (8:30): -$111.6B expected, -$119.9B prior
NAHB Housing Market , December (10:00): 63 expected, 63 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/10 (10:30): -42 bcf prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, October (16:00): -$26.2B prior
December 16 - Friday
Housing Starts, November (8:30): 1225K expected, 1323K prior
End part 1 of 3
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Saturday, December 03, 2016
The Daily, CORRECTED Part 1 of 3, 12-3-16
* * * *
12/03/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: ADBE; URI
Entry alerts: NFLX
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
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Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- No real change Friday as NYSE indices test rather normally, NASDAQ and SOX
try to hang in.
- Jobs Report still shows the same issues with new records, not on
unemployment, but on numbers out of workforce and those holding multiple
jobs.
- Market started to split Wednesday and Thursday, still has great
leadership, but is losing the techs and possibly the chips.
What was down Thursday was up Friday, and what was up Thursday was down
Friday -- for the most part, and just slightly at that. The problem is for
those that fell Thursday, the Friday rebound was nowhere near the strength
or ferocity of the downside. Thus, many tech stocks, while recovering some
lost ground, made little progress in repairing patterns damaged Thursday.
At the same time, some of the first leaders in the market rally, e.g. steel,
enjoyed a solid session: AKS, ZEUS, X. As these early rally leaders resumed
the upside, other early leaders that rallied Thursday, e.g. financial and
transportation, took a breather.
The mix of recovering tech, chip and softer industrial related stocks left
the stock indices flat. Much better situation than Thursday where NASDAQ
bombed lower 72 points and SOX lost almost 5%. Again, however, the modest
recoveries did nothing to repair Thursday's damage.
SP500 0.87, 0.04%
NASDAQ 4.54, 0.09%
DJ30 -21.51, -0.11%
SP400 0.09%
RUTX 0.03%
SOX 1.30%
VOLUME: NYSE -26%. NASDAQ -16%. Both exchanges saw volume fall back to
average. Lower volume on the relief upside sessions keeps the 'pullback'
yellow caution flag out for the overall market.
A/D: NYSE 1.2:1, NASDAQ barely positive.
Looking at the Friday action and indeed the action for the past 3 weeks and
it is apparent the test that started this week is not over, at least in
terms of NASDAQ and likely SOX.
They both suffered some serious damage in the distribution and likely that
is not over. SP400, DJ30, SP500 and RUTX look decent enough in tests of the
10 day EMA, but some violent rotation has returned as the technology sector,
what should be a growth area if the economy is going to rally, sells. It
tried to rally and actually looked pretty solid, but just as fast as it
improved it was sold off. Anticipating bad relations with the President
elect in terms of visas for cheap overseas labor, building products outside
the US? Perhaps, but if the methodology for keeping them in the US is to
make the US a place they WANT to be through lower regulation, taxes, and a
once-again strong rule of law, that is a good thing for them and for
everyone.
Thus it may be that that market further splits given the 10 day EMA tests
from the NYSE indices and the damage control on NASDAQ and SOX. If so, we
will play those leaders that tested in the week's pullback and start back
upside.
On Friday we stepped out and picked up some NFLX as it showed a break
higher. Also took some gain on URI and the rest of the gain on ADBE as it
tried to break the 200 day SMA, but rebounded to a nice doji with tail.
ECONOMY/NEWS
Another Jobs Report is in the books but unlike the prior jobs reports, this
one was no longer billed as 'the most important' jobs report. As noted all
week long, the data now coming in is 'old administration' data outside the
sentiment indicators that have surged. Despite the supposed changes in the
report, the underlying report is still the same: fewer people working, more
out of the workforce, earnings still well behind any typical recovery and
indeed fell in November.
Jobs Report
Non-Farm Payrolls: 178K versus 179K expected versus 142 prior (from 161K)
Unemployment: 4.6% versus 4.9% prior. Must be a great jobs market!
U6 unemployment: 9.6%, lowest since 2008.
Earnings: -0.1% versus 0.2% versus 0.4% prior. Worst showing since 2014.
Workweek: 34.4 versus 34.4 versus 34.4
PARTICIPATOIN RATE: 62.7% versus 62.8% prior. 446K people LEFT the
workforce, bringing the total working aged people outside the labor force at
a NEW RECORD 95.1M! THAT is how you get the unemployment rate down 3-tenths
in one month: have a huge number leave the workforce, unable to find work.
Full-time versus part-time jobs
October: Part-time +90K, Full-time -103K
November: Part-time +118K, Fulltime +9K. Hey, at least full-time jobs rose
in November.
3-month totals: Part-time +638K, Full-time -99K
Multiple Job Holders: People holding 2 or more jobs as a result of economic
necessity.
Seasonally adjusted +61K to 7.8M. Unadjusted +57K to 8.1M, a high for the
2000's.
Where the jobs are:
-Business and Professional: +63K
-Healthcare: +28K
-Food service and drinking establishments: +19K
-Construction: +19K (second nice gain)
-Temporary: +14.3K. This has not been a good sign for the economy in this
recovery.
-Government: +22K
-Mining/Logging: +2K. First gain in many months and it comports with what
we are seeing in oilfield activity and in machine shops servicing the
industry. An OPEC deal, if it sticks, only helps.
-Information Tech: -10K (second straight decline)
-Retail: -8K (second straight decline)
-Manufacturing: -4K
SUMMARY: As the internals show, this is the same report as the one before
it, and the one before that, the one before that . . . you can go as far
back as you want. Fewer people working, more people forced to hold multiple
jobs, wages falling. How on earth can that be spun as a positive? I said
it years ago in analyzing one of the same over-hyped jobs reports: is
creating 180K, 500K, 1M or even millions of low wage, part-time jobs the
equivalent of the same number of full-time, high-wage jobs? Half that
number? The answer is of course, 'no.'
THE MARKET
CHARTS
DJ30: Very modest move lower Friday but the advance has slowed. Slowed
versus selling hard a la NASDAQ. Still trending up the 10 day EMA, now 6.3%
over its 200 day SMA. That gives DJ30 some more upside potential, but a 10
day EMA (19,062; closed 19,170) test would not be surprising. Straight up,
more or less, for 4 weeks, sure a bit oversold, and again, a 10 day EMA
test, even a 20 day down to 18,900 where the November lateral consolidation
occurred, is not out of the normal realm. Thus far, however, nothing
indicates DJ30 is due for a major rollover outside of a major turn in
sentiment about the rally. For now we watch for a test as described and use
that as an entry if the leaders hold and set up again.
SP500: Similar to DJ30 but already on the test. Faded to the August
lateral consolidation Thursday and Friday, just below the 10 day EMA. Nice
run to a higher high, nice test to a logical point, the August
consolidation. The 20 day at 2180 is another. The 38% Fibonacci
retracement is at 2164 (and the 50 day EMA as well). Thus far an orderly
test as financial, energy, and industrial stocks are helping hold SP500's
gains.
NASDAQ: Bombed on Wednesday and Thursday, Friday posted a modest gain and a
doji just below the 50 day MA's and just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement
of the November rally. This leaves NASDAQ at the early August highs, a
potential support level, but at this point, even with the Friday band aid,
NASDAQ has not showed it has made the low on this selling. It is in a
logjam of prices from August to mid-November, but again, it has not showed
it is ready to rally from here.
SP400: As noted earlier in the week, a textbook rally test, using the
entire week to fade a test to the 10 day EMA. One of the very impressive
runs of the smaller cap indices, this test is equally impressive in its
order. Still way, way over the 38% Fibonacci retracement (1577; closed
1625). Doubt it would fall that far, but have to see when and how hard the
bids return.
SOX: A Friday bounce after Thursday's 4.85% dive bomb to the 61% Fibonacci
retracement. That wiped away the entire higher high gains over the early
October peak. Friday's bounce recovered the October peak but a lot of
damage was inflicted and after that we want to see how the chips can
recover. Friday saw many in a modest relief move, but still suffering
unrepaired damage from the Thursday drop.
RUTX: Russell spent the week testing the wholly impressive 15 session rally
from the early November low, holding at the 10 day EMA Friday with a doji.
Some symmetry in the move, up 15 days, testing back 5 days. Still way over
the prior highs at 1264 and the 38% Fibonacci retracement (1274; closed at
1314). Thus far orderly, but still not convinced the small caps hold at
this level.
LEADERSHIP
As discussed Thursday, leadership narrowed when techs and semiconductors
were dropped Thursday. While there were rebounds Friday, the rebounds did
little to repair the Thursday damage or the split in the market that
occurred Wednesday and particularly Friday.
Metals: While most traded indecisively Friday, metals decisively moved
higher. AKS, X, ZEUS, STLD posted nice moves. Early market leader in the
lead again.
Financial: After great Wednesday and Thursday success, financial stocks
tested Friday. GS, JPM, BAC posted modest losses. C fell harder, but
managed to hold the 10 day EMA.
Transports: Similar to financials, transports took a breather Friday but
did not harm the patterns. CSX, JBHT, DAL all sluggish on the day but
holding gains.
Industrial equipment: Decent though slow. CMI continued its climb. CAT
was lower but did not hurt itself. TEX tests the 10 day EMA while EMR holds
a strong Wednesday break higher.
Oil: Explosive move Wednesday that quieted down, in some cases, by the
weekend. PDS continued higher Friday, along with other oil service
companies, e.g. HAL, SLB. Most others took the session off but are still
solid, e.g. WLL, APC.
Semiconductors: Bounced Friday but for most that didn't wipe away Thursday.
Some are still in their trends even if they sold, e.g. SLAB, XLNX, AMD, MU.
Others broke their trends, e.g. SWKS. Will see how this leadership group
recovers, if it can.
Software: Tried to recovery Friday, but not that successful. RHT gapped
lower but did recover some of the Thursday lost ground. VMW gapped to the
50 day EMA and posted a reversal to a modest gain. Many questions here as
well.
Big Names: Still looking something like warmed over horse manure, but not
for all. AMZN is still heading lower. AAPL bounced some Friday but very
low trade. FB is still in its 78% Fibonacci retracement double bottom.
GOOG held the 200 day SMA and is trying to bounce. NFLX posted a nice,
higher volume move as it looks to continue the break higher off the 50 day
EMA and the D point in its ABCD. Not all are fertilizer.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +4.55 points (+0.09%) to close at 5255.65
Volume: 1.871B (-16.04%)
Up Volume: 1.06B (+510.23M)
Down Volume: 766.9M (-893.1M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.04 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.6 to 1
New Highs: 111 (-95)
New Lows: 59 (-21)
S&P
Stats: +0.87 points (+0.04%) to close at 2191.95
NYSE Volume: 882M (-26.5%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.23 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.63 to 1
New Highs: 94 (-194)
New Lows: 167 (-45)
DJ30
Stats: -21.51 points (-0.11%) to close at 19170.42
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 14.12; +0.05
VXN: 16.99; -0.19
VXO: 14.11; +0.08
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.03
12 of 25 sessions over 1.0 on the close. Edging closer to 1.0 but as of yet
in the rally and now test, still not much downside speculation.
Bulls and Bears: Not the huge surge from the prior week, but another gain
by bulls, moving toward that 60 level that, at least during the Obama years,
acted as a barrier to the upside moves. That still leaves room to move
higher, but definitely in the upper end of the range. Bears actually moved
higher on the week, leaving them mid-range and thus not as much an indicator
as bulls.
Bulls: 56.3 versus 55.6
Bears: 22.3 versus 21.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 56.3 versus 55.6
55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9
versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4%
versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus
47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 22.3 versus 21.6
21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6
Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3%
versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus
20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8%
versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.394% versus 2.454%. Rebounded some Friday despite the
supposedly better economic data. Still an ugly week for bonds as they
continue trending lower below the 10 day EMA.
Historical: 2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36%
versus 2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus
2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867%
versus 1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus
1.83% versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76%
versus 1.73% versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus
1.80% versus 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74%
versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus
1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.06638 versus 1.06631. Modest 2 week recovery up to the 20 day
EMA but still in a major downtrend.
Historical: 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066
versus 1.05910 versus 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus 1.0587
versus 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858
versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406
versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860
versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08851
versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus 1.0966
versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183
versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239
versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus
1.12259
USD/JPY: 113.52 versus 113.945. Big week again, testing the move Thursday
and Friday.
Historical: 113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus
111.835 versus 113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus
110.905 versus 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386
Oil: 51.68, +0.62. Big week up Wednesday to Friday. The move carries oil
to its October and June highs. Of course the OPEC deal was the huge event
on the week. Ironically, Friday Saudi Arabia commented that they "tend to
cheat" on OPEC agreements. Really? No, say it isn't so! Of COURSE it is.
Gold: 1177.80, +8.40. Ugly week as gold continued its trend lower below
the 10 day EMA. Gold is now at the gap point from early February and may
try to find some support for a bounce.
MONDAY
Over the weekend there is the Italian election and it is feared the
Italians, suffering from oppressively high unemployment and the huge costs
of the new immigrants, will move toward an 'Italiexit' from the EU. I
listened to a short debate on the topic afterhours, and one analyst
commented it was better to have the EU than separate countries with
different currencies, central banks, etc. because of "all the additional
regulation." Hmmm. Go read a history book on just how regulation EXPLODED
under the EU versus what was in place in individual countries before
joining. I am sure MANY EU countries, basically all but Germany and France,
would LOVE to leave. Might see the next shoe drop this weekend.
If it does, of course markets will panic. Will they panic similar to the
Trump election, i.e. drop massively in the overnight trade and then erase
all signs of worry by morning? Perhaps not, but I am just not too sure how
that will hurt the US.
Indeed, it might lead to a bit more testing/consolidating, but that only
helps a market already engaged in a much-needed test from the last run
higher.
Thus, we will watch for more leadership stocks to consolidate and set up new
moves. EMR is one that could be ready with another session or two. Some
energy is setting up still. Retail is also still showing nice fades.
Perhaps some chips can rally that group such as AVGO that has sold to the
200 day SMA and other support. Or SLAB that hit the 50 day MA and bounced.
Software could find some help from VMW, but not sure who else. It would
appear the 'safer' plays are in the initial market leaders, but you always
have to watch for the next group to arise, e.g. the possibility of retail.
Anyway, we will see how the Italian election plays out as well as new
developments in Pennsylvania where supposedly some recounts show Trump
losing 22K votes. If the market rally in the current leaders was built on
the hope of pro-economic policies versus the same old policies that produced
this most recent jobs report, then that rally could be facing a new reality.
Always interesting, eh? Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5255.65
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 5259
The 50 day SMA at 5263
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5309 is the late October lower high
5310 is the 2016 up trendline
5340 is the September all-time closing high.
Support:
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
The 200 day SMA at 5021
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 2191.95
Resistance:
The 10 day EMA at 2193
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
The 2016 trendline at 2205
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
Support:
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 50 day EMA at 2163
The 50 day SMA at 2156
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
The 200 day SMA at 2109
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,170.42
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 19,061
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 50 day EMA at 18,593
The 50 day SMA at 18,462
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
The 200 day SMA at 18,028
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
December 2 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, November (8:30): 178K actual versus 180K expected, 142K
prior (revised from 161K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, November (8:30): 156K actual versus 170K expected,
135K prior (revised from 142K)
Hourly Earnings, November (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.4%
prior (no revisions)
Unemployment Rate, November (8:30): 4.6% actual versus 4.9% expected, 4.9%
prior (no revisions)
Average Workweek, November (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.4
prior (no revisions)
December 5 - Monday
ISM Services, November (10:00): 55.6 expected, 54.8 prior
December 6 - Tuesday
Productivity-Rev., Q3 (8:30): 3.3% expected, 3.1% prior
Unit Labor Costs - R, Q3 (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Trade Balance, October (8:30): -$41.8B expected, -$36.4B prior
Factory Orders, October (10:00): 2.5% expected, 0.3% prior
December 7 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/03 (7:00): -9.4% prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, October (10:00): 5.486M prior
Crude Inventories, 12/03 (10:30): -0.884M prior
Consumer Credit, October (15:00): $18.7B expected, $19.3B prior
December 8 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 12/03 (8:30): 255K expected, 268K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/26 (8:30): 2081K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/03 (10:30)
December 9 - Friday
Mich Sentiment, December (10:00): 94.3 expected, 93.8 prior
Wholesale Inventorie, October (10:00): -0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- No real change Friday as NYSE indices test rather normally, NASDAQ and SOX
try to hang in.
- Jobs Report still shows the same issues with new records, not on
unemployment, but on numbers out of workforce and those holding multiple
jobs.
- Market started to split Wednesday and Thursday, still has great
leadership, but is losing the techs and possibly the chips.
What was down Thursday was up Friday, and what was up Thursday was down
Friday -- for the most part, and just slightly at that. The problem is for
those that fell Thursday, the Friday rebound was nowhere near the strength
or ferocity of the downside. Thus, many tech stocks, while recovering some
lost ground, made little progress in repairing patterns damaged Thursday.
At the same time, some of the first leaders in the market rally, e.g. steel,
enjoyed a solid session: AKS, ZEUS, X. As these early rally leaders resumed
the upside, other early leaders that rallied Thursday, e.g. financial and
transportation, took a breather.
The mix of recovering tech, chip and softer industrial related stocks left
the stock indices flat. Much better situation than Thursday where NASDAQ
bombed lower 72 points and SOX lost almost 5%. Again, however, the modest
recoveries did nothing to repair Thursday's damage.
SP500 0.87, 0.04%
NASDAQ 4.54, 0.09%
DJ30 -21.51, -0.11%
SP400 0.09%
RUTX 0.03%
SOX 1.30%
VOLUME: NYSE -26%. NASDAQ -16%. Both exchanges saw volume fall back to
average. Lower volume on the relief upside sessions keeps the 'pullback'
yellow caution flag out for the overall market.
A/D: NYSE 1.2:1, NASDAQ barely positive.
Looking at the Friday action and indeed the action for the past 3 weeks and
it is apparent the test that started this week is not over, at least in
terms of NASDAQ and likely SOX.
They both suffered some serious damage in the distribution and likely that
is not over. SP400, DJ30, SP500 and RUTX look decent enough in tests of the
10 day EMA, but some violent rotation has returned as the technology sector,
what should be a growth area if the economy is going to rally, sells. It
tried to rally and actually looked pretty solid, but just as fast as it
improved it was sold off. Anticipating bad relations with the President
elect in terms of visas for cheap overseas labor, building products outside
the US? Perhaps, but if the methodology for keeping them in the US is to
make the US a place they WANT to be through lower regulation, taxes, and a
once-again strong rule of law, that is a good thing for them and for
everyone.
Thus it may be that that market further splits given the 10 day EMA tests
from the NYSE indices and the damage control on NASDAQ and SOX. If so, we
will play those leaders that tested in the week's pullback and start back
upside.
On Friday we stepped out and picked up some NFLX as it showed a break
higher. Also took some gain on URI and the rest of the gain on ADBE as it
tried to break the 200 day SMA, but rebounded to a nice doji with tail.
ECONOMY/NEWS
Another Jobs Report is in the books but unlike the prior jobs reports, this
one was no longer billed as 'the most important' jobs report. As noted all
week long, the data now coming in is 'old administration' data outside the
sentiment indicators that have surged. Despite the supposed changes in the
report, the underlying report is still the same: fewer people working, more
out of the workforce, earnings still well behind any typical recovery and
indeed fell in November.
Jobs Report
Non-Farm Payrolls: 178K versus 179K expected versus 142 prior (from 161K)
Unemployment: 4.6% versus 4.9% prior. Must be a great jobs market!
U6 unemployment: 9.6%, lowest since 2008.
Earnings: -0.1% versus 0.2% versus 0.4% prior. Worst showing since 2014.
Workweek: 34.4 versus 34.4 versus 34.4
PARTICIPATOIN RATE: 62.7% versus 62.8% prior. 446K people LEFT the
workforce, bringing the total working aged people outside the labor force at
a NEW RECORD 95.1M! THAT is how you get the unemployment rate down 3-tenths
in one month: have a huge number leave the workforce, unable to find work.
Full-time versus part-time jobs
October: Part-time +90K, Full-time -103K
November: Part-time +118K, Fulltime +9K. Hey, at least full-time jobs rose
in November.
3-month totals: Part-time +638K, Full-time -99K
Multiple Job Holders: People holding 2 or more jobs as a result of economic
necessity.
Seasonally adjusted +61K to 7.8M. Unadjusted +57K to 8.1M, a high for the
2000's.
Where the jobs are:
-Business and Professional: +63K
-Healthcare: +28K
-Food service and drinking establishments: +19K
-Construction: +19K (second nice gain)
-Temporary: +14.3K. This has not been a good sign for the economy in this
recovery.
-Government: +22K
-Mining/Logging: +2K. First gain in many months and it comports with what
we are seeing in oilfield activity and in machine shops servicing the
industry. An OPEC deal, if it sticks, only helps.
-Information Tech: -10K (second straight decline)
-Retail: -8K (second straight decline)
-Manufacturing: -4K
SUMMARY: As the internals show, this is the same report as the one before
it, and the one before that, the one before that . . . you can go as far
back as you want. Fewer people working, more people forced to hold multiple
jobs, wages falling. How on earth can that be spun as a positive? I said
it years ago in analyzing one of the same over-hyped jobs reports: is
creating 180K, 500K, 1M or even millions of low wage, part-time jobs the
equivalent of the same number of full-time, high-wage jobs? Half that
number? The answer is of course, 'no.'
THE MARKET
CHARTS
DJ30: Very modest move lower Friday but the advance has slowed. Slowed
versus selling hard a la NASDAQ. Still trending up the 10 day EMA, now 6.3%
over its 200 day SMA. That gives DJ30 some more upside potential, but a 10
day EMA (19,062; closed 19,170) test would not be surprising. Straight up,
more or less, for 4 weeks, sure a bit oversold, and again, a 10 day EMA
test, even a 20 day down to 18,900 where the November lateral consolidation
occurred, is not out of the normal realm. Thus far, however, nothing
indicates DJ30 is due for a major rollover outside of a major turn in
sentiment about the rally. For now we watch for a test as described and use
that as an entry if the leaders hold and set up again.
SP500: Similar to DJ30 but already on the test. Faded to the August
lateral consolidation Thursday and Friday, just below the 10 day EMA. Nice
run to a higher high, nice test to a logical point, the August
consolidation. The 20 day at 2180 is another. The 38% Fibonacci
retracement is at 2164 (and the 50 day EMA as well). Thus far an orderly
test as financial, energy, and industrial stocks are helping hold SP500's
gains.
NASDAQ: Bombed on Wednesday and Thursday, Friday posted a modest gain and a
doji just below the 50 day MA's and just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement
of the November rally. This leaves NASDAQ at the early August highs, a
potential support level, but at this point, even with the Friday band aid,
NASDAQ has not showed it has made the low on this selling. It is in a
logjam of prices from August to mid-November, but again, it has not showed
it is ready to rally from here.
SP400: As noted earlier in the week, a textbook rally test, using the
entire week to fade a test to the 10 day EMA. One of the very impressive
runs of the smaller cap indices, this test is equally impressive in its
order. Still way, way over the 38% Fibonacci retracement (1577; closed
1625). Doubt it would fall that far, but have to see when and how hard the
bids return.
SOX: A Friday bounce after Thursday's 4.85% dive bomb to the 61% Fibonacci
retracement. That wiped away the entire higher high gains over the early
October peak. Friday's bounce recovered the October peak but a lot of
damage was inflicted and after that we want to see how the chips can
recover. Friday saw many in a modest relief move, but still suffering
unrepaired damage from the Thursday drop.
RUTX: Russell spent the week testing the wholly impressive 15 session rally
from the early November low, holding at the 10 day EMA Friday with a doji.
Some symmetry in the move, up 15 days, testing back 5 days. Still way over
the prior highs at 1264 and the 38% Fibonacci retracement (1274; closed at
1314). Thus far orderly, but still not convinced the small caps hold at
this level.
LEADERSHIP
As discussed Thursday, leadership narrowed when techs and semiconductors
were dropped Thursday. While there were rebounds Friday, the rebounds did
little to repair the Thursday damage or the split in the market that
occurred Wednesday and particularly Friday.
Metals: While most traded indecisively Friday, metals decisively moved
higher. AKS, X, ZEUS, STLD posted nice moves. Early market leader in the
lead again.
Financial: After great Wednesday and Thursday success, financial stocks
tested Friday. GS, JPM, BAC posted modest losses. C fell harder, but
managed to hold the 10 day EMA.
Transports: Similar to financials, transports took a breather Friday but
did not harm the patterns. CSX, JBHT, DAL all sluggish on the day but
holding gains.
Industrial equipment: Decent though slow. CMI continued its climb. CAT
was lower but did not hurt itself. TEX tests the 10 day EMA while EMR holds
a strong Wednesday break higher.
Oil: Explosive move Wednesday that quieted down, in some cases, by the
weekend. PDS continued higher Friday, along with other oil service
companies, e.g. HAL, SLB. Most others took the session off but are still
solid, e.g. WLL, APC.
Semiconductors: Bounced Friday but for most that didn't wipe away Thursday.
Some are still in their trends even if they sold, e.g. SLAB, XLNX, AMD, MU.
Others broke their trends, e.g. SWKS. Will see how this leadership group
recovers, if it can.
Software: Tried to recovery Friday, but not that successful. RHT gapped
lower but did recover some of the Thursday lost ground. VMW gapped to the
50 day EMA and posted a reversal to a modest gain. Many questions here as
well.
Big Names: Still looking something like warmed over horse manure, but not
for all. AMZN is still heading lower. AAPL bounced some Friday but very
low trade. FB is still in its 78% Fibonacci retracement double bottom.
GOOG held the 200 day SMA and is trying to bounce. NFLX posted a nice,
higher volume move as it looks to continue the break higher off the 50 day
EMA and the D point in its ABCD. Not all are fertilizer.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +4.55 points (+0.09%) to close at 5255.65
Volume: 1.871B (-16.04%)
Up Volume: 1.06B (+510.23M)
Down Volume: 766.9M (-893.1M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.04 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.6 to 1
New Highs: 111 (-95)
New Lows: 59 (-21)
S&P
Stats: +0.87 points (+0.04%) to close at 2191.95
NYSE Volume: 882M (-26.5%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.23 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.63 to 1
New Highs: 94 (-194)
New Lows: 167 (-45)
DJ30
Stats: -21.51 points (-0.11%) to close at 19170.42
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 14.12; +0.05
VXN: 16.99; -0.19
VXO: 14.11; +0.08
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.03
12 of 25 sessions over 1.0 on the close. Edging closer to 1.0 but as of yet
in the rally and now test, still not much downside speculation.
Bulls and Bears: Not the huge surge from the prior week, but another gain
by bulls, moving toward that 60 level that, at least during the Obama years,
acted as a barrier to the upside moves. That still leaves room to move
higher, but definitely in the upper end of the range. Bears actually moved
higher on the week, leaving them mid-range and thus not as much an indicator
as bulls.
Bulls: 56.3 versus 55.6
Bears: 22.3 versus 21.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 56.3 versus 55.6
55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9
versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4%
versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus
47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 22.3 versus 21.6
21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6
Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3%
versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus
20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8%
versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.394% versus 2.454%. Rebounded some Friday despite the
supposedly better economic data. Still an ugly week for bonds as they
continue trending lower below the 10 day EMA.
Historical: 2.454% versus 2.388% versus 2.30% versus 2.31%. versus 2.36%
versus 2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297% versus
2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867%
versus 1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus
1.83% versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76%
versus 1.73% versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus
1.80% versus 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74%
versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus
1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.06638 versus 1.06631. Modest 2 week recovery up to the 20 day
EMA but still in a major downtrend.
Historical: 1.06631 versus 1.0601 versus 1.0649 versus 1.05699 versus 1.066
versus 1.05910 versus 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus 1.0587
versus 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858
versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406
versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860
versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08851
versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus 1.0966
versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183
versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239
versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus
1.12259
USD/JPY: 113.52 versus 113.945. Big week again, testing the move Thursday
and Friday.
Historical: 113.945 versus 114.19 versus 112.685 versus 112.44 versus
111.835 versus 113.14 versus 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus
110.905 versus 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386
Oil: 51.68, +0.62. Big week up Wednesday to Friday. The move carries oil
to its October and June highs. Of course the OPEC deal was the huge event
on the week. Ironically, Friday Saudi Arabia commented that they "tend to
cheat" on OPEC agreements. Really? No, say it isn't so! Of COURSE it is.
Gold: 1177.80, +8.40. Ugly week as gold continued its trend lower below
the 10 day EMA. Gold is now at the gap point from early February and may
try to find some support for a bounce.
MONDAY
Over the weekend there is the Italian election and it is feared the
Italians, suffering from oppressively high unemployment and the huge costs
of the new immigrants, will move toward an 'Italiexit' from the EU. I
listened to a short debate on the topic afterhours, and one analyst
commented it was better to have the EU than separate countries with
different currencies, central banks, etc. because of "all the additional
regulation." Hmmm. Go read a history book on just how regulation EXPLODED
under the EU versus what was in place in individual countries before
joining. I am sure MANY EU countries, basically all but Germany and France,
would LOVE to leave. Might see the next shoe drop this weekend.
If it does, of course markets will panic. Will they panic similar to the
Trump election, i.e. drop massively in the overnight trade and then erase
all signs of worry by morning? Perhaps not, but I am just not too sure how
that will hurt the US.
Indeed, it might lead to a bit more testing/consolidating, but that only
helps a market already engaged in a much-needed test from the last run
higher.
Thus, we will watch for more leadership stocks to consolidate and set up new
moves. EMR is one that could be ready with another session or two. Some
energy is setting up still. Retail is also still showing nice fades.
Perhaps some chips can rally that group such as AVGO that has sold to the
200 day SMA and other support. Or SLAB that hit the 50 day MA and bounced.
Software could find some help from VMW, but not sure who else. It would
appear the 'safer' plays are in the initial market leaders, but you always
have to watch for the next group to arise, e.g. the possibility of retail.
Anyway, we will see how the Italian election plays out as well as new
developments in Pennsylvania where supposedly some recounts show Trump
losing 22K votes. If the market rally in the current leaders was built on
the hope of pro-economic policies versus the same old policies that produced
this most recent jobs report, then that rally could be facing a new reality.
Always interesting, eh? Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5255.65
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 5259
The 50 day SMA at 5263
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5309 is the late October lower high
5310 is the 2016 up trendline
5340 is the September all-time closing high.
Support:
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
The 200 day SMA at 5021
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 2191.95
Resistance:
The 10 day EMA at 2193
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
The 2016 trendline at 2205
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
Support:
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 50 day EMA at 2163
The 50 day SMA at 2156
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
The 200 day SMA at 2109
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 19,170.42
Resistance:
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 19,061
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 50 day EMA at 18,593
The 50 day SMA at 18,462
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
The 200 day SMA at 18,028
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
December 2 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, November (8:30): 178K actual versus 180K expected, 142K
prior (revised from 161K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, November (8:30): 156K actual versus 170K expected,
135K prior (revised from 142K)
Hourly Earnings, November (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.4%
prior (no revisions)
Unemployment Rate, November (8:30): 4.6% actual versus 4.9% expected, 4.9%
prior (no revisions)
Average Workweek, November (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.4
prior (no revisions)
December 5 - Monday
ISM Services, November (10:00): 55.6 expected, 54.8 prior
December 6 - Tuesday
Productivity-Rev., Q3 (8:30): 3.3% expected, 3.1% prior
Unit Labor Costs - R, Q3 (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Trade Balance, October (8:30): -$41.8B expected, -$36.4B prior
Factory Orders, October (10:00): 2.5% expected, 0.3% prior
December 7 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/03 (7:00): -9.4% prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, October (10:00): 5.486M prior
Crude Inventories, 12/03 (10:30): -0.884M prior
Consumer Credit, October (15:00): $18.7B expected, $19.3B prior
December 8 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 12/03 (8:30): 255K expected, 268K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/26 (8:30): 2081K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/03 (10:30)
December 9 - Friday
Mich Sentiment, December (10:00): 94.3 expected, 93.8 prior
Wholesale Inventorie, October (10:00): -0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
End part 1 of 3
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