Not Much News to Drive Stocks

MARKET SUMMARY

- After the fireworks, kind of an anticlimactic expiration, but stocks still post gains.
- Not much news to drive stocks, but they didn't need it.
- Modest gains but not the pullback yet for some new entries.

After all the news on the week . . . Russia, economic, and the grand finale, the FOMC's patience proclamation that set off an upside firestorm after the early week continuation of the oil/Russia selloff, Friday was pretty tame. Up but it had to slow some. Seems each time the market has a serious identity crisis as in October (Ebola, economics) and then December (oil and Russia), it roars back. Easy go, easy come?

SP500 9.42, 0.46%
NASDAQ 16.98, 0.36%
DJ30 26.65, 0.15%
SP400 0.33%
RUTX 0.32%
SOX -0.30%

Seems so, particularly with an FOMC perceived as continued lax and laissez-faire. Downright patient some would say. I don't really buy it; as discussed last week post-FOMC, to us Chairman Yellen's comments again indicate a rate hike 6 months after QE ended in October. That is the polar opposite of others such as Peter Schiff, the bear who believes the Fed will go for QE4. Still others believe the economy is in nirvana with 4% growth becoming the norm, great job creation, diving unemployment. Just your usual slightly different, a few degrees apart economic forecasts.

Of course reality is usually somewhere in between and we don't think things are going to hell in a hand basket (my father used that phrase; not sure what the derivation is or even the meaning for that matter) nor do we think it is anywhere near the boom the new normal believers claim. Jobs are not quality jobs and stats this weekend show that virtually all jobs growth has been from immigrants. Markit PMI readings are showing sharp slowdown, contrasting the establishment surveys. If oil continues its dive there will be further cap-ex cuts, less drilling, and layoffs, pressuring the one industry that kept the US economy alive during the recession.

Housing is worrisome as it slows, though as with the economy, the extreme high end is booming still while other areas start to struggle. Not only is the slowing worrisome but some of the comments you hear from our leaders once again talk of the inability of lower income households to gain access to mortgages. We are hearing the very same comments that preceded the housing boom then bust when banks were forced to lend to poor credit risks. There is no doubt the mortgage market is in a straightjacket gratis the tightened restrictions post-bust. Good risks with good credit find it hard to qualify. We went through that and put down an absurd amount on a place with just a small note yet I felt as if I was going to have to turn over my most recent prostate exam results. As usual with regulation, it is either too easy leading to corruption and bubble conditions, or it is too restrictive as it is now after the bust, when you need a bit of leeway to get the market going.




The point: things could crash; there are enough problems out there and if a few things fall the wrong way it could get messy. On the other hand, the US could continue to improve if we don't do stupid things that shoot ourselves in the foot such as banning fracturing, extend social benefits to millions of new people, etc. Of course we ARE blowing off our own feet so while there is improvement it remains painstakingly and frustratingly slow.

The Fed, however, needs to get some ammunition reloaded, and the only way to do that is get interest rates above 0%. If it does not and something hits, then we have negative rate policy in the US as in Europe, i.e. where it costs you money (other than inflation losses and opportunity cost) to keep banks on deposit. Thus the Fed has decided it wants to raise rates and will do so, albeit in a slow (is that patient?) process, unless something really ugly happens.

I could make some predictions for the new year but those are worthless and are only interesting in any shock value they have. You know, predicting the US and USSR will have an actual military altercation, intentional or otherwise, as a result of the school yard antics Russia is pulling such as buzzing US facilities in Guam with bombers, cutting off NATO aircraft with crazily risky moves, etc.


Russian fighter cuts across Norwegian F-16


Russian Bear bomber escorted away from Guam. Canadian F-18's intercepted two Bear bombers intruding into Alaska air defense identification zone on 12/8.

Or how about $20/bbl oil because demand really does tank as predicted but supply remains huge as Saudi Arabia wants to again kill off the US domestic industry to maintain market share. Interesting and based in some fact and history, but pure conjecture and just too many variables.

How do you position yourself for those predictions anyway? It is opinion, conjecture, and frankly in many cases BS.

What you have to do is look to stocks themselves and see how they are acting. Good patterns or weak patterns? Holding trends or giving them up? Leadership solid or struggling and fading?

Those are much more pertinent than broad guesses as to the future. Leaders help show you where the money is going and that is, bottom line, what you have to look at to determine where to place your money. If you get wedded to a big picture notion you tend to look at market moves through that prism and that can cause you to miss what stocks are telling you. That is why, regardless of how I feel about the economy and prospects for the future, I have to check them at the door when it is time to invest and trade. My economic opinions are not going to influence the market one bit even if I am right as of course I usually am.

Thus with the market still showing some very good patterns and setups that jumped higher last week, it appears the market still wants to rally to year end and thus we look for new plays upside. Indeed, while we were not too keen on taking new positions Friday given the 2-day sprint Wednesday and Thursday, we picked up some AAPL as it looks very good.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

SP500: Added more upside, tapping at the November all-time highs on the intraday high, backing off some to the close. MACD is lagging, at the prior highs. Still looking for a continued move higher to year end, but this gets interesting here at the prior high and the October and December close proximity selloffs.

NASDAQ: As with SP500, NASDAQ added more to end the week, though it too faded off the intraday high after touching near the November high. Strong recovery, near the prior high, lower MACD. Nice rebound off the 38% Fibonacci retracement, showing momentum is still good but an important test of the prior highs is ahead.

RUTX: The small caps continued the move over the November trading range. Still below the July and February peaks but took out an important one if it can hold the breakout.

DJ30: Gave back most of the Friday move by the close. Huge upside move Wednesday and Thursday, hit some resistance Friday, took a day off. Similar comments to NASDAQ with the 38% Fibonacci retracement hold and rebound but now at the prior high.

SOX: Still a great looking pattern with the surge off the 50 day EMA test. Modest loss Friday on some retrenching, but a very solid pattern and a solid new upside move.


LEADERSHIP:

Leaders were still performing Friday. Some took the day off, but good moves continued to move higher.

Data storage: STX and WDC still moving.

Software: SWI jumping.

Biotechs: Looking solid again. CELG, TGTX, XON.

Materials: Still looking better and better. LPX. TREX was down but still a nice pattern.


MARKET STATS

NASDAQ
Stats: +16.98 points (+0.36%) to close at 4765.38
Volume: 2.831B (+33.83%)

Up Volume: 1.85B (+80M)
Down Volume: 1.3B (+917.38M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.06 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.18 to 1

New Highs: 138 (+5)
New Lows: 52 (+8)

S&P
Stats: +9.42 points (+0.46%) to close at 2070.65
NYSE Volume: 2.5B (+127.27%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.82 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.14 to 1

New Highs: 221 (+33)
New Lows: 23 (0)

DJ30
Stats: +26.65 points (+0.15%) to close at 17804.8


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 16.49; -0.32
VXN: 16.89; -0.34
VXO: 14.63; -0.25

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; +0.1


Bulls and Bears:

Bulls: 49.5% versus 51.5% versus 53.4% versus 56.5%. Down again after some sharp declines. Never did get to 60%, a red flag top indicator for the market the past few years.

Bears: 14.9% versus 14.8% versus 13.9% versus 13.8% versus 14.9%. Bears still don't want to grow much at all.

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 49.5%
51.5% versus 53.4% versus 56.5% versus 56.4% versus 55.5% versus 54.6% versus 47.0% versus 35.3% versus 37.8% versus 45.5% versus 47.5% versus 48.0% versus 52.5% versus 57.6% versus 56.1% versus 52.5%

Background: Last undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June 2012.

Bears: 14.9%
14.8% versus 13.9% versus 13.8% versus 14.9% versus 14.8% versus 15.1% versus 16.3% versus 18.2% versus 17.3% versus 14.1% versus 15.1% versus 15.3% versus 15.2% versus 14.1% versus 13.3% versus 15.1% versus 16.2%

Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Right now bulls are coming back down from the 60 level that has consistently marked market tops over the past two years. The rapid decline in progress is pushing the bulls/bears lines toward one another. Still far from a cross with bulls falling faster than bears are rising, but bears are warming up to the notion of market weakness.


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 2.17 versus 2.21%
2.14% versus 2.05% versus 2.11% versus 2.08% versus 2.18% versus 2.16% versus 2.22% versus 2.26% versus 2.31% versus 2.24% versus 2.29% versus 2.29% versus 2.22 versus 2.17% versus 2.21% versus 2.24% versus 2.26% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.34% versus 2.35% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.32% versus 2.35% versus 2.36% versus 2.36% versus 2.30% versus 2.38% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.339% versus 2.33% versus 2.31%

Surging, suggesting that the Fed IS going to raise rates sooner than later.


Oil: 56.52, +2.41. Laterally Tuesday to Friday. Oil is at support, it wants to bounce even if it is nothing more than a relief bounce.


Gold: 1196.00, +1.10


$/JPY: 119.49 versus 118.83 versus 118.86 versus 116.81 versus 117.61 versus 118.75 versus 119.07 versus 118.12 versus 119.76 versus 120.55 versus 121.42 versus 119.78 versus 119.81 versus 119.21 versus 118.36 versus 118.63 versus 117.58 versus 117.93 versus 118.27 versus 117.73 versus 117.96 versus 118.00 versus 116.98 versus 116.47 versus 116.29 versus 115.74


Euro/$: 1.2225 versus 1.2284 versus 1.2345 versus 1.2509 versus 1.2448 versus 1.2462 versus 1.2389 versus 1.2439 versus 1.2366 versus 1.2318 versus 1.2289 versus 1.2379 versus 1.2313 versus 1.2383 versus 1.2473 versus 1.2452 versus 1.2509 versus 1.2477 versus 1.2442 versus 1.2386 versus 1.2549 versus 1.2543 versus 1.2532


MONDAY

A shortened week of course with Christmas on Thursday. Christmas Eve the market closes at 1:00ET. Friday the market is open but no one will be there.

A short week and typically a quiet week, but of course all economic data needs to be crammed in ahead of the holiday. Thus Tuesday is chocked full with durable goods, GDP third iteration (4.2% expected), Michigan Sentiment, Personal income and spending, New home sales . . . a full calendar.

Doesn't really change how we look at the market. After all, the Fed has spoken and it will be patient with us.

After the two day surge some positions we wanted got a bit away to the upside and Friday we watched for a bit of a pullback. There was just a bit with just some stocks. Not really what we wanted. So, we watch for that early this week. Remember, the test can take a few days. As the Fed, patience is key. Watch for orderly pullbacks/fades of the Wednesday and Thursday moves. When the stocks start back up, start picking up positions.

That is all for now.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 4765.38

Resistance:
4782 is the November 2014 peak

Support:
The 50 day EMA at 4638
4631 is the October 2014 upside gap point
4610 is the September 2014 post-bear market high.
4566 is the lower gap point from late October
4545 is the 38% Fibonacci retracement
4486 is the July 2014 high
The 200 day SMA at 4402
4372 is the March 2014 high
The August low at 4321
4316 is the lower gap point from October 2014
4289 is the July 2000 recovery high
4277 is the March lower gap point
4246.55 is the January 2014 peak
4185, the May lower gap point
4131 is the March 2014 low
4104 is the lower gap point from 12/20/13
4070 is the series of highs from late November/early December


S&P 500: Closed at 2070.65

Resistance:
2076 is the all-time high from November
2099 is the December 2012 up trendline

Support:
2041 is the lower trendline from 11/2012
The 50 day EMA at 2020
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1991 is the July 2014 high
The 200 day SMA at 1950
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1883.57 is the early March high.
The December and January highs at 1848
The April 2014 low at 1814
1808 is the November and December 2013 twin peaks
1775.22 is the October prior all-time high


Dow: Closed at 17,804.80

Resistance:
17,991 is the all-time high

Support:
The 50 day EMA at 17,434
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
The 200 day SMA at 16,880
16,736 is the penultimate all-time high from May 2014
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,341 is the May low
16,334 is the August 2014 low
16,257 is the January 2014 low
16,179 is the November 2013 peak.
15,739 is the December 2013 low
15,696 is the September 2013 peak
15,659 is the August 2013 peak



ECONOMIC CALENDAR

December 22 - Monday
Existing Home Sales, November (10:00): 5.20M expected, 5.26M prior

December 23 - Tuesday
Durable Orders, November (8:30): 2.8% expected, 0.4% prior
Durable Goods -ex transports, November (8:30): 1.0% expected, -0.9% prior
GDP - Third Estimate, Q3 (8:30): 4.2% expected, 3.9% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q3 (8:30): 1.4% expected, 1.4% prior
FHFA Housing Price Index, October (9:00): 0.0% prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, December (9:55): 93.8 expected, 93.8 prior
Personal Income, November (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, November (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.2% prior
PCE Prices - Core, November (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
New Home Sales, November (10:00): 460K expected, 458K prior

December 24 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/20 (7:00): -3.3% prior
Initial Claims, 12/20 (8:30): 290K expected, 289K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/13 (8:30): 2358K expected, 2373K prior
Crude Inventories, 12/20 (10:30): -0.847M prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/20 (24:00): -64 bcf prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2014 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

Technorati tags: stock trading stock market investing Jon Johnson InvestmentHouse.com

Stocks and Oil Fall Together

MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks and oil fall together. Weaker world economy? Increased supply? Does it matter?
- Yearend rally is off the rails, but leaders continue holding the line, holding out the chance for a little Christmas magic.
- IEA cuts its oil forecast as well.
- Michigan Sentiment surges as citizens accept lower growth, lower standards of living as the new normal.
- Looking for indications of a new bounce attempt. Some indicators gelling, but still has to show it.

Stocks sell again, oil blamed, but low oil historically is good for economies, good for stocks.

Last week the one thing we felt could derail the yearend rally did just that: international issues. It started with Mario Draghi and the ECB doing nothing in terms of QE. It worsened when the PBOC tightened liquidity. It continued with oil plunging, again, and pundits speculating it was all about a slower world economy.

Friday oil took another $2+ hit and stocks suffered a 1.2% to 1.8% kick per the stock indices. Oil is blamed, understandably so, given it has accounted for virtually all of the US economic growth in the recovery and because the drop is viewed as a lack of world demand, ominous for economic output and thus earnings.

Of course as touched upon Thursday, is it really lack of demand or a massive new amount of supply causing the decline? No question without the US entry as a top crude producer oil prices would be higher. Then again, without the US entry into the market the US economy would not be as strong as it is and the entire world economics would be slower and thus perhaps oil prices lower via lack of demand. Interesting give and take.

If it is oil, it is just a recent phenomena. Oil put in its last high in June and has dropped from 108 to 58 in a steady, sharp slide. Stocks, on the other hand, have rallied with just one big hiccup (October), and just this past week started to sell. If it is oil causing stock weakness, it something the market just woke up to.

Oil or just the market having gas? To borrow a phrase from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, what difference does it make? Can you imagine the CEO of GM after people died from a known issue with an electrical switch saying 'what difference, at this time, does it make?' Can you imagine how she would have been strung up by the media, Congress, the public? Of course it does matter because it can continue if not corrected, but that is another story and, apparently, another election to come. After Thursday, I would suggest Elizabeth Warren will have a lot to do with who is the democratic nominee in 2016 as the democrats push aside Clinton again. But I digress.


'What difference, at this point, does it make?'

Either way stocks were off sharply again Friday, ending a week that saw sharp declines, attempts at reversals, but not enough to overcome the sellers. Perhaps just too much upside off of the October low, perhaps there are economic issues bubbling up under the surface that the economic data as reported is not picking up. In any event, the holiday rally is off the rails and the best it can hope for now is a pullback to next support and then a more traditional Christmas rally, i.e. from Christmas into the first few days of 2015.

SP500 -33.00, -1.62%
NASDAQ -54.56, -1.16%
DJ30 -315.51, -1.79%
SP400 -1.35%
RUTX -1.24%
SOX -1.73%

VOLUME: NYSE +21%. NASDAQ +1.1%. Some serious distribution on the NYSE indices as volume spiked on sharp selling. Distribution means dumping of stocks. 4 distribution sessions in the past 10 is fairly significant and suggests continued pressure on stocks.

A/D: -3.8:1 NYSE, -2.5:1 NASDAQ. Pretty strong but not as strong as the Wednesday -4 and -5:1.

Support was the issue Friday, and for several of the indices that next level did not hold. On others it did. Those that did break support are already at the next.

Leadership took hits but if you look at our positions, for the most part they remain in solid position. That seems surprising to many given the strength of the selling, but it is showing that some groups are simply using the selling to test and set up for a new move. As long as there are leaders doing just that, the market has the foundation to bounce after it finds the key support. The 38% Fibonacci retracement of the October move is getting closer, and if the upside still has momentum that should provide some kind of bounce.

It doesn't hurt that the VIX contracts are entering backwardation, that situation where the near term contract is valued higher than longer term contracts. When that occurs the market has bottomed over the past few years. When that lines up with a solid support level in the indices, the bounces are solid.

Friday was basically play management. We took some gain on DECK as it tripped the initial target. We closed STX, SNDK, and ACXM with trailing stops, and also closed VICR. Most of our positions, however, held up very well on the day and on the week. As noted, if leadership holds good support and good patterns, the ability to post up and give us an end of year run remain.


THE NEWS

November PPI fell 0.25 thanks to a 3.1% energy and 7.7% fuel decline. The core was 0.0% when energy was stripped out. Deflation? Hardly. Lower prices in fuel is a good thing for economies. Plenty of other items are not deflating but are inflating in price. There is concern that iron ore and other metals prices are floundering lower as well. With China no longer buying to hoard in addition to building ghost cities, the demand just isn't what it was.

IEA lowered its oil outlook for 2015 for the fourth time in as many months. Dropped daily demand expectations by 230K/bbl per day down to 900K. Demand down, supply up. Perfect storm for oil prices.

Are the sentiment measures correct?

Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary surges to the highest since January 2007 (96.9). 93.8 blasted past expectations (89.5). Wages may be stagnant at best (real median incomes are 5% lower than 2007 and HIS Global Insight says it will take until 2019 to hit new highs!), but the consensus reports (Conference Board, Michigan Sentiment) show a more sanguine, even enthused, consumer.

Is this the 'new normal' as well, i.e. satisfied with less economic growth (because we don't remember what real growth is like) and thus satisfied with lower levels of living standards?


Frightening when you think of the parallels of 'settling,' e.g. willing to allow and accept complete government intrusion into every aspect of our lives. I have not heard one person complain of the passage of the appropriations bill Thursday night in the House that codified the NSA's ability to gather all of our electronic communications for use as it sees fit. Give us our iPhones, our student loans, our subprime auto loans, our false promises of affordable care, and we don't care. Disturbing.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

SP500: Broke the lower trendline and the 50 day EMA Friday but held the 50 day SMA at the close. Still 22 points over the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the October surge (1980), but at support from the 50 day and the late July, August peaks. Wasn't showing any signs of slowing as of Friday, but it is getting in the zone and now start looking for some doji at these prior highs to see if the sellers are losing momentum.

NASDAQ: Down on the week but not gutted. Gapped lower Friday but holding over the 50 day EMA and well over the late October gap point at 4600ish. So far a very normal test, though well, well above the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the October run (4545). Closer support at the 50 day (4631) down to 4600.

DJ30: Two big dives lower Wednesday and Friday left DJ30 at the 50 day SMA and September prior all-time high. Good place to hold but could give up some more ground to the 38% Fibonacci retracement (17,176; closed at 17,280). As with SP500, not showing any slowing as of the Friday close, but time to start looking for bottoming signals. A doji with tail would be nice.

RUTX: Gapped downside to the 200 day MA, closing at that level. This is the bottom of the 5 week trading range, still holding the range despite all the selling. Okay, it will show the next move from here. Duh.

SOX: As with NASDAQ, a down week but a rather normal fade. Undercut the 20 day EMA Friday, still well over the 38% Fibonacci retracement (645; closed at 671). 656 is the next real support from the November gap and the September peak.


LEADERSHIP:

Talking about leadership on a week when the large cap indices lost 4% may seem strange, but was is likely stranger to most is that almost all of our plays held near support, basically ignoring the selling or using it to make modest, orderly tests of recent moves.

Now perhaps these stocks are simply the last holdouts that will be taken out and shot, but they are holding up well in the selling. They of course have to continue holding their patterns, but if there is another break lower where the indices test that next support and rebound, they will be in great shape to continue their upside moves after some nice tests.

Plays holding up in lots of market selling:

Biotech: ACHN, CLDX, EXAS, PETX, PTCT, XON

Electronics: BSFT, ENPH, OCLR, SIMO

Tech/Software: AAPL, FLTX, ZBRA

Retail: BWLD, CRTO, EVLV

Internet: LLNW, TRLA

Miscellaneous: CMLS (radio), NMBL, SWIR (telecom), TREX (building materials)

Some leaders had issues: STX, SNDK. When you have that kind of selling something has got to give. Mostly, however, the leadership that had the good patterns, the sound bases that show accumulation over time, held up even after a week of pretty intense downside in the stock indices.


MARKET STATS

NASDAQ
Stats: -54.57 points (-1.16%) to close at 4653.6
Volume: 1.834B (+1.11%)

Up Volume: 507.57M (-772.43M)
Down Volume: 1.36B (+780.41M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.46 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.52 to 1

New Highs: 57 (-36)
New Lows: 190 (+74)

S&P
Stats: -33 points (-1.62%) to close at 2002.33
NYSE Volume: 1B (+21.3%). Volume jumping on the selling as stocks are dumped.

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 3.8 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.37 to 1

New Highs: 52 (-49)
New Lows: 360 (+147). Getting more extreme but not there yet. Need to see 500+.

Stats: -315.51 points (-1.79%) to close at 17280.83


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 21.08; +1. VIX is close to backwardation right now, i.e. when the near term contract as a percentage of the next month's contract reaches a value historically greater than normal. When that has occurred over the past couple of years the market was near a bottom. Not there yet, but another shakeout in the indices could do the trick.
VXN: 22.51; +2.11
VXO: 20.89; +2.61

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.13; +0.14


Bulls and Bears:

Bulls: 51.5% versus 53.4% versus 56.5%. Still backing off from near 60%, a red flag top indicator for the market the past few years. Never made 60% on this trip so after a bit of backtracking the market would be in position to move higher again.

Bears: 14.8% versus 13.9% versus 13.8% versus 14.9%. Bounced back up to the level hit a month back. Bears are stubborn, but they usually move less than the emotions on their sleeve bulls.

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 51.5%
53.4% versus 56.5% versus 56.4% versus 55.5% versus 54.6% versus 47.0% versus 35.3% versus 37.8% versus 45.5% versus 47.5% versus 48.0% versus 52.5% versus 57.6% versus 56.1% versus 52.5%

Background: Last undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June 2012.

Bears: 14.8%
13.9% versus 13.8% versus 14.9% versus 14.8% versus 15.1% versus 16.3% versus 18.2% versus 17.3% versus 14.1% versus 15.1% versus 15.3% versus 15.2% versus 14.1% versus 13.3% versus 15.1% versus 16.2%

Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Right now bulls are coming back down from the 60 level that has consistently marked market tops over the past two years. The rapid decline in progress is pushing the bulls/bears lines toward one another. Still far from a cross with bulls falling faster than bears are rising, but bears are warming up to the notion of market weakness.


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 2.08% versus 2.18% versus 2.16% versus 2.22% versus 2.26% versus 2.31% versus 2.24% versus 2.29% versus 2.29% versus 2.22 versus 2.17% versus 2.21% versus 2.24% versus 2.26% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.34% versus 2.35% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.32% versus 2.35% versus 2.36% versus 2.36% versus 2.30% versus 2.38% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.339% versus 2.33% versus 2.31%

Soaring to a new closing high on this move. Only the early October intraday spike is higher.


Oil: 57.81, -2.14.


Gold: 1222.50, -3.10. Tested the Tuesday surge higher, still trying to keep the rebound off the early November low going but facing serious resistance.


$/JPY: 118.75 versus 119.07 versus 118.12 versus 119.76 versus 120.55 versus 121.42 versus 119.78 versus 119.81 versus 119.21 versus 118.36 versus 118.63 versus 117.58 versus 117.93 versus 118.27 versus 117.73 versus 117.96 versus 118.00 versus 116.98 versus 116.47 versus 116.29 versus 115.74 versus 115.53 versus 115.32 versus 114.86 versus 114.60 versus 114.98 versus 114.64 versus 113.60 versus 113.73 versus 112.32 versus 109.23 versus 108.89 versus 108.16 versus 107.83 versus 108.13 versus 108.17 versus 107.20 versus 106.88

What a move over the past month. Taking a breather last week, testing the 20 day EMA, but the trend is still in place.


Euro/$: 1.2462 versus 1.2389 versus 1.2439 versus 1.2366 versus 1.2318 versus 1.2289 versus 1.2379 versus 1.2313 versus 1.2383 versus 1.2473 versus 1.2452 versus 1.2509 versus 1.2477 versus 1.2442 versus 1.2386 versus 1.2549 versus 1.2543 versus 1.2532


MONDAY

December expiration is this week and that precedes the shortened Christmas week. Christmas falls on Thursday this year and that means, according to the NYSE rules, Friday will be a half day session. No one will be there, but it will be a half day session because the market cannot be closed for more than 1.5 days during a normal trading week.

So much for the vagaries of the NYSE calendar rules.

The indices closed hard Friday, meaning they closed with big losses and at session lows. No signs of slowing such as bouncing up off the lows, showing doji with tails, etc. As noted, most are still well above the 38% Fibonacci retracement, but many are also at nearer potential support levels. Thus you start watching for indications they are trying to use these levels as support, i.e. selling lower then reversing off those lows to a doji, or gapping lower then rebounding and holding the gains. That action suggests the sellers are losing their grip, that the buyers are starting to move back in after the selling.

Also watch how stocks that have not broken down perform. Biotechs, drugs, retail, semiconductors, leading techs. If they hold their patterns/support, when combined with index action described above, the rebound probability jumps.

Energy is worth watching as well. It has been hammered. When buyers sense it is time, they move into leaders that held up and some of the worst hit sectors as a value perception play.

This move is at the point it needs to show a rebound if the rally, and I am not talking about the yearend rally now but the overall rally, is going to hold. December is usually up. It is clearly not thus far. When December is negative it tends to speak to how the market performs the following year. Thus, for the upside, you want to see this selling start to abate pretty soon and a continued move upside return.

We go into this week cautious of course but willing to let plays that are holding patterns and support work. It appears that when the international issues hit the market some decided to avoid the Christmas rush and book some gains. Again, we are looking at how the stocks that held the line continue to perform and for any signs of a bottom forming such as that further selloff to close support and then bounces to close higher off those lows. As we saw last week that is not always the all clear, but it shows the buyers are trying to step in, and if you string a couple of those sessions together back to back, that probabilities climb sharply.




SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 4653.60

Resistance:
4782 is the November 2014 peak


Support:
4650 is some support
4631 is the October 2014 upside gap point
The 50 day EMA at 4632
4610 is the September 2014 post-bear market high.
4566 is the lower gap point from late October
4486 is the July 2014 high
The 200 day SMA at 4394
4372 is the March 2014 high
The August low at 4321
4316 is the lower gap point from October 2014
4289 is the July 2000 recovery high
4277 is the March lower gap point
4246.55 is the January 2014 peak
4185, the May lower gap point
4131 is the March 2014 low
4104 is the lower gap point from 12/20/13
4070 is the series of highs from late November/early December


S&P 500: Closed at 2002.33

Resistance:
2011 is the September prior all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2020
2034 is the lower trendline from 11/2012
2076 is the all-time high from November
2093 is the December 2012 up trendline

Support:
The 50 day SMA at 2001
1991 is the July 2014 high
The 200 day SMA at 1946
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1883.57 is the early March high.
The December and January highs at 1848
The April 2014 low at 1814
1808 is the November and December 2013 twin peaks
1775.22 is the October prior all-time high


Dow: Closed at 17,280.33

Resistance:
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
The 50 day EMA at 17,436
17,991 is the all-time high

Support:
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
The 200 day SMA at 16,853
16,736 is the penultimate all-time high from May 2014
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,341 is the May low
16,334 is the August 2014 low
16,257 is the January 2014 low
16,179 is the November 2013 peak.
15,739 is the December 2013 low
15,696 is the September 2013 peak
15,659 is the August 2013 peak


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

December 12 - Friday
PPI, November (8:30): -0.2% actual versus -0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI, November (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Michigan Sentiment, December Preliminary (9:55): 93.8 actual versus 89.5 expected, 88.8 prior

December 15 - Monday
Empire Manufacturing, December (8:30): 14.0 expected, 10.2 prior
Industrial Production, November (9:15): 0.7% expected, -0.1% prior
Capacity Utilization, November (9:15): 79.3% expected, 78.9% prior
NAHB Housing Market , December (10:00): 58 expected, 58 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, October (16:00): $164.3B prior

December 16 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, November (8:30): 1035K expected, 1009K prior
Building Permits, November (8:30): 1060K expected, 1080K prior

December 17 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/13 (7:00): 7.3% prior
CPI, November (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Core CPI, November (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Current Account Balance, Q3 (8:30): -$95.0B expected, -$98.5B prior
Crude Inventories, 12/13 (10:30): 1.454M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, December (14:00): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

December 18 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 12/13 (8:30): 292K expected, 294K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/06 (8:30): 2510K expected, 2514K prior
Philadelphia Fed, December (10:00): 26.5 expected, 40.8 prior
Leading Indicators, November (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.9% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/13 (10:30): -51 bcf prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2014 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

Technorati tags: stock trading stock market investing Jon Johnson InvestmentHouse.com

Jobs Report Wows, But...

MARKET SUMMARY

- Jobs report wows, but a nation starved for good economics is easily pleased.
- Stocks indecisive whether jobs news was good or bad, but closed higher for good measure.
- Irony's sense of humor: Administration claims jobs victory on the day it is announced China is now the world's largest economy.
- 'Tis the season . . . for seasonal workers.
- Gaining ground? Participation rate holds steady.
- Factory Orders down for third month.
- First BAC said card sales were down and consumer credit shows a huge drop in credit card use.
- Some turning a bit more bearish at year end just because. But little tax loss or profit taking selling this year as funds still play catch up.

Good news good news? Good news bad news? Was it good news? Market a bit indecisive after purportedly great jobs report, but the same leaders win out.

At 321K non-farm payrolls, jobs topped expectations by 40% while October and September were revised higher to 243K (from 214K) and 271K (from 256K), respectively. Best reading for jobs since January 2012. In addition, hourly wages rose 0.4% versus 0.2% expected (0.1% October), the best reading since 1/2013.

Truly prosperity has returned to America. Yes, you can detect just a hint of sarcasm. Definitely better news but as has been the case, better news in numbers but not the kind of improvement that is leading to a better standard of living in the US, certainly not back to the levels experienced prior to the recession. As Rick Santelli, the closest at guessing the number of all the CNBC pundits, put it, it took six years to get what should have been accomplished in 2 years.


It took six years to get this jobs print?

But Mr. Santelli's comments pertained only to the overall numbers. He did not have the benefit of looking at the details, those same details that each month show the top line is mostly illusory. Yes there are more jobs, but the jobs are not 'American' jobs, i.e. the kind of standard of living improving, breadwinner jobs that are the hallmark of all prior US recoveries. Indeed, strikingly, the US LOST 150K full jobs in a month creating 321K jobs. That tells you the quality of jobs right there.

Indeed, the market was uncertain of the meaning when the news hit. Stocks jumped, stocks sold, investors laughed, investors cried. It took awhile, and there was never any heavy selling, but stocks did move higher on the day. Again.

We felt that would be the case, i.e. the trend continuing after the news hit. Moreover, the same stocks in the lead continued to lead Friday after digesting the Jobs Report: chips (SOX), small caps (RUTX), and . . . industrials (DJ30).

SP500 3.45, 0.17%
NASDAQ 11.32, 0.24%
DJ30 58.69, 0.33%
SP400 0.18%
RUTX 0.80%
SOX 1.00%

VOLUME: NYSE -5.5%, NASDAQ +3%

A/D: NYSE 1.1:1. NASDAQ 2:1


THE NEWS

Jobs for everyone! Well, not really. And not a permanent job either.

321K non-farm, best since 1/2012.

Unemployment: 5.8%, in line and steady from October.

Hourly wages: 0.4% versus 0.2% versus 0.1% October. Best since 1/2013.

Workweek: moved back up to 34.6 hours after falling to 34.5 hours in October.

U6 (underemployed added in): 11.4%, down from 12.7% in November 2013.

Those are the headlines, the trumpeted, heralded, bragged about headlines. 'Fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony.' As all the President's men and the President himself took time from their busy golf schedules to proclaim victory, it was announced that China is now the world's largest economy, 2 years ahead of the schedule.


'Fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony.' Morpheus from 'The Matrix'

Now, as the great Paul Harvey would say, the rest of the story.

321K jobs in a month. Compared to the prior six years that seems impressive. But, this is America. Used to be you had BETTER have 300K+ jobs a month in recovery or it was just an uptick.

Reagan: 23 months of 300K+ months of jobs. And we are not talking just 300K but 400K, 500K, 700K, and yes, even 1M PER MONTH.

Bush 1 and Clinton: 27 months of 300K+ over 10 years

1960's: 8 months of 300K+ with three over 400K.

Bush 2: That jobless recovery produced seven 300K+ jobs months.

Obama: 2. 2? In six years? But I suppose that makes sense given this 'great' economy as Jason Furman, head of the President's Economic Council called it on Tuesday has produced just three quarters of 4+% GDP growth in six years.


That's all we got? One G** damn hit?
You can't say G** damn on the air.
That's alright, nobody is listening anyway. - - 'Major League' 1989

Also consider the size of the labor force. In the 1980's it was 29% smaller, and thus 300K jobs was a MUCH LARGER proportion of jobs than today. There needs to be 500K jobs per month now to even come close to those levels.


Household survey versus Non-farms: flat jobs, temps not full-time.

The 300K+ jump in non-farm jobs didn't see a similar jump in jobs reported per the household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate.

Indeed, the household survey showed just +4K net jobs after taking out the 150K fulltime jobs LOST in November. 77K of the jobs were part-time.

What the hell? Are we relegated to creating copious amounts of low paying crap jobs here in the US?

This is Where the Jobs Are?

Friday morning just after the jobs release and before we could dig into the numbers I said likely the numbers reflected a large increase in seasonal jobs, i.e. retail. With Amazon and others attempting to avoid a fiasco such as last year and announcing they would hire tens of thousands of seasonal helpers, that was a pretty safe conclusion.

Indeed, 50K of the jobs were in retail. Leisure and hospitality 38K. Professional services (secretaries) 63K. Temps 22.7K.

Participation: Steady at 62.8%, matching the 1978 low. An additional 69K were 'not in the labor force.' More jobs we are told, but also more people leaving the workforce.

Match that with unemployment holding at 5.8%. Participation rate flat, 69K more out of the work force. Are there all of these new jobs? Sure there is some discrepancy between the two reports; always is. But this is not clearing up, and when viewed in conjunction with the other data, yet again you see the same old trends that show a weaker overall jobs market.

Jobs by age: 'No young workers, thank you.'

Grey boom: 55 and over moved to an all-time high employment level at 32.8M

Under 24 NNA (Need Not Apply): -169K in this demographic as again the younger generation is unwanted. Go ahead, get that school loan, load up on the debt, then go live a Mom and Dad's house while you work in a part time job at the Gap or as a secretary. Four years of college goes a long way.



The headlines trumpet the most jobs created in 2014 in the new millennium. 278K/month for the past three months. Yet, as we have discussed each month for now 6 years, the jobs created are low end that not even the younger workers can work. It may have taken six years to get to this level, but what level is it? Do we just look at the numbers and give the thumbs up? Are we that starved for good news that millions of low paying, low-skill, dead end, standard of living decimating jobs are good enough for America? It is not enough to say we have produced the jobs. We have to produce jobs that are commensurate to the US being and, now sadly, retaking, the number one spot in economics in the world.


Factory Order in a mini-recession.

October: -0.7% versus 0.2% expected versus -0.5% prior


October is typically a slowdown month. People save some money in order to prepare for the holiday spending spree. October economic reports thus often suffer the fate of existing at the wrong time of the year.

This October, however, followed two months of lower orders, September (-0.5%) and August (-10%). Holy cow, after surging into July, Factory Orders have reversed those gains.

Take out defense spending ant orders drop further, down to -1.2%.

Business investment: Not surprisingly, it is no better, coming in at -1.6%.
Oil's decline accounted for some of the drop as the price drop attributed for the lower cost of refinery feedstock orders. Some silver lining in there, but too few.


Consumer Credit: Student loans, no credit card debt, and Automobiles



Smallest growth rate since 11/2013 and the first 3-month decline since the great crash and the 2012 string that took QE3 to correct.

Student and auto loans account for 93% of the total growth.

Credit Cards? As BAC reported early last week, sales from credit cards are lower. Indeed in October they plummeted 66% year/year.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

Friday continued the recent trends, i.e. SP500 holding gains but going nowhere, SOX surging, RUTX continuing a solid recovery, NASDAQ recovering the Monday loss, and DJ30 continuing to plow upwards.

SOX: Another solid 1% advance capped a Tuesday to Friday run. SOX is riding a three week run from the breakout over the July and September peaks and thus far showing no signs of relenting.

RUTX: After the 2-day plunge to the 200 day SMA, RUTX is on a steady recovery, up Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. It is still below the November peak as well as the August and July peaks, but it is working steadily. Not flashy but doing the job.

DJ30: A good week, rising off the very flat lateral move over Thanksgiving. Steady trend up the 10 day EMA. Not spectacular, but steady. MACD is starting to lag the move some. Still moving up but now MACD is added to slower volume. Something to watch, but it is a year end move that doesn't need a lot of trade to work.

SP500: Up on the week and just cracking to a new closing high Friday. Still over the 10 day EMA, working slowly higher, and sliding along the upper trendline to its long uptrend channel from 11/2012.

NASDAQ: Up to close out the week, but unable to recapture the pre-Monday drop highs. Still solid but lacking help from some big names such as GOOG.


LEADERSHIP

Biotechs: Large and small enjoyed another solid week. PTCT, ACHN,

Techs: Outside of some big names continuing to lag, there is some great action. ACXM, ENPH (chips), SWIR, SWI, SIMO, OCLR, PLNR, BSFT.

Retail: GPS, LB, COST, ROST, TJX. Not all is steady: BIG, AEO, FIVE.

Internet: Showing signs last week. LLNW, TRLA, BIDU, NTES


MARKET STATS

NASDAQ
Stats: +11.32 points (+0.24%) to close at 4780.76
Volume: 1.724B (+2.95%)

Up Volume: 1.07B (+393.51M)
Down Volume: 679.28M (-350.72M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.94 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.51 to 1

New Highs: 155 (+35)
New Lows: 111 (+12)

S&P
Stats: +3.45 points (+0.17%) to close at 2075.37
NYSE Volume: 755M (-5.48%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.1 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.76 to 1

New Highs: 186 (+15)
New Lows: 134 (+18)

DJ30
Stats: +58.69 points (+0.33%) to close at 17958.79


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.82; -0.56
VXN: 14.37; -0.61
VXO: 11.15; -0.79

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.03; -0.03


Bulls and Bears:

Bulls: 53.4% versus 56.5%. Backed off considerably after that month-long move toward 60.

Bears: 13.9% versus 13.8% versus 14.9%. Ticked up but still well off the 14.9% three weeks back.

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 53.4%
56.5% versus 56.4% versus 55.5% versus 54.6% versus 47.0% versus 35.3% versus 37.8% versus 45.5% versus 47.5% versus 48.0% versus 52.5% versus 57.6% versus 56.1% versus 52.5%

Background: Last undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June 2012.

Bears: 13.9%
13.8% versus 14.9% versus 14.8% versus 15.1% versus 16.3% versus 18.2% versus 17.3% versus 14.1% versus 15.1% versus 15.3% versus 15.2% versus 14.1% versus 13.3% versus 15.1% versus 16.2%

Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Right now bulls are coming back down from the 60 level that has consistently marked market tops over the past two years. The rapid decline in progress is pushing the bulls/bears lines toward one another. Still far from a cross with bulls falling faster than bears are rising, but bears are warming up to the notion of market weakness.


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 2.31% versus 2.24% versus 2.29% versus 2.29% versus 2.22 versus 2.17% versus 2.21% versus 2.24% versus 2.26% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.34% versus 2.35% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.32% versus 2.35% versus 2.36% versus 2.36% versus 2.30% versus 2.38% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.339% versus 2.33% versus 2.31%


Oil: 65.84, -0.97. So much for attempting to bounce. Monday was up but the rest of the week was a slow fade to a slightly lower closing low.


Gold: 1190.40, -17.38. After rallying to the 50 day EMA on Monday, pausing for a new move, the jobs data pushed gold back down from the 50 day EMA.


$/JPY: 121.42 versus 119.78 versus 119.81 versus 119.21 versus 118.36 versus 118.63 versus 117.58 versus 117.93 versus 118.27 versus 117.73 versus 117.96 versus 118.00 versus 116.98 versus 116.47 versus 116.29 versus 115.74 versus 115.53 versus 115.32 versus 114.86 versus 114.60 versus 114.98 versus 114.64 versus 113.60 versus 113.73 versus 112.32 versus 109.23 versus 108.89 versus 108.16 versus 107.83 versus 108.13 versus 108.17 versus 107.20 versus 106.88


Euro/$: 1.2289 versus 1.2379 versus 1.2313 versus 1.2383 versus 1.2473 versus 1.2452 versus 1.2509 versus 1.2477 versus 1.2442 versus 1.2386 versus 1.2549 versus 1.2543 versus 1.2532 versus 1.2455 versus 1.2520 versus 1.2486 versus 1.2432 versus 1.2480 versus 1.2421 versus 1.2455 versus 1.2387 versus 1.2486 versus 1.2456 versus 1.2493 versus 1.2525 versus 1.2610


MONDAY

The Thanksgiving hiccup is out of the way along with the most recent Jobs hype, SOX and RUTX along with DJ30 reasserted themselves, and the rest of the market recovered off the two days of selling. Now can they push the rally into Christmas?

Looks as if they can, but then there are stories from Barron's discussing NASDAQ's ascent once again toward 5,000. Barron's this weekend says that the approach is raising fears of another overpriced bubble destined to pop. Barron's notes, however, that this time it is different at the same time acknowledging when you say things are different they never really are different. Okay, I guess that is the same as saying it with your fingers crossed.

No doubt stocks are getting a bit lofty and as the weekly bulls show, there are fewer the past week even as stocks continue to trend higher. Perhaps part of the fear of flying crowd?

We are not saying that stocks will just keep running. No, we are playing a yearend move that may possibly continue into January. Not trying to make anything more out of it than that. We identified the season pattern (the 'pat' scenario) back in September and early October, said it could very well play out as your classic selloff into an October bottom then yearend run, and thus we were ready when October bottomed when many experts were saying not to trust the market. It was a pat seasonal play, right down to the pundits getting scared. The rebound ensued, and now it is pushed by the fund managers that allowed themselves to be scared out of the two big rallies of the year and must make up lost ground.

That is all. Nothing more than that. If we get more, great. Kind of a play off of the old 'those who expect nothing are never disappointed' line, but that is kind of how you have to look at the market. Be ready, take what it gives you, and if it wants to give a bit more, take that as well. There are too many times IT is taking and not giving, so when it is there, pony up.

That said, with SOX and RUTX still looking solid, we intent to keep playing the move. There are many stocks out there with big, long bases in place, foundations for new, strong moves. This weekend we are looking at several of those that are what we call turning the corner, i.e. coming up off of long bases, making that first run and testing it. If the test holds, they are good to go, and of course that is when we want to move in.

Maybe it is an oversimplification of what is going on, but it has worked and nothing has really changed. The employment data came, it rattled around the market for the morning, then the market moved higher. If the international shenanigans are kept to a minimum, the market has a good shot at closing out the year with a continuing of the current run off the October low.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 4780.76

Resistance:

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 4710
4650 is some support
The 50 day EMA at 4615
4610 is the September 2014 post-bear market high.
4566 is the lower gap point from late October
4486 is the July 2014 high
The 200 day SMA at 4383
4372 is the March 2014 high
The August low at 4321
4316 is the lower gap point from October 2014
4289 is the July 2000 recovery high
4277 is the March lower gap point
4246.55 is the January 2014 peak
4185, the May lower gap point
4131 is the March 2014 low
4104 is the lower gap point from 12/20/13
4070 is the series of highs from late November/early December


S&P 500: Closed at 2075.37

Resistance:
2076 is the all-time high from November
2085 is the December 2012 up trendline

Support:
2027 is the lower trendline from 11/2012
The 50 day EMA at 2017
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1991 is the July 2014 high
The 200 day SMA at 1942
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1883.57 is the early March high.
The December and January highs at 1848
The April 2014 low at 1814
1808 is the November and December 2013 twin peaks
1775.22 is the October prior all-time high


Dow: Closed at 17,958.79

Resistance:

Support:
The 10 day EMA at 17,842
The 50 day EMA at 17,392
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
The 200 day SMA at 16,818
16,736 is the penultimate all-time high from May 2014
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,341 is the May low
16,334 is the August 2014 low
16,257 is the January 2014 low
16,179 is the November 2013 peak.
15,739 is the December 2013 low
15,696 is the September 2013 peak
15,659 is the August 2013 peak


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

December 5 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, November (8:30): 321K actual versus 230K expected, 243K prior (revised from 214K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, November (8:30): 314K actual versus 228K expected, 236K prior (revised from 209K)
Unemployment Rate, November (8:30): 5.8% actual versus 5.8% expected, 5.8% prior
Hourly Earnings, November (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Average Workweek, November (8:30): 34.6 actual versus 34.6 expected, 34.5 prior (revised from 34.6)
Trade Balance, October (8:30): -$43.4B actual versus -$42.0B expected, -$43.6B prior (revised from -$43.0B)
Factory Orders, October (10:00): -0.7% actual versus 0.2% expected, -0.5% prior (revised from -0.6%)
Consumer Credit, October (15:00): $13.2B actual versus $16.5B expected, $15.5B prior (revised from $15.9B)

December 9 - Tuesday
Wholesale Inventories, October (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, October (10:00): 4.735M prior

December 10 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/06 (7:00): -4.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 12/06 (10:30): -3.689M prior
Treasury Budget, November (14:00): -$59.0B expected, -$135.2B prior

December 11 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 12/06 (8:30): 295K expected, 297K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/29 (8:30): 2350K expected, 2362K prior
Retail Sales, November (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, November (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., November (8:30): -0.9% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, November (8:30): -0.2% prior
Business Inventories, October (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 12/06 (10:30): -22 bcf prior

December 12 - Friday
PPI, November (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI, November (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Michigan Sentiment, December Preliminary (9:55): 89.5 expected, 88.8 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2014 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

Technorati tags: stock trading stock market investing Jon Johnson InvestmentHouse.com