Sunday, June 17, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 6-16-18

* * * *
6/16/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: MRO
Stop alerts: Cleared out positions that did not rebound with the market.
AAPL; BLUE; CAT; COP; CRZO

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
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impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- US, China trade tariffs. Market struggles, but holds up very well.
- Economic data pretty good, some not so great, but all of it a shadow of
what it once was and could be again.
- Has the redefinition of a strong economy fooled the Fed?
- Index action Friday suggests most of the move was just position shuffling
at expiration.
- Still good patterns after the 'week from hell' for the markets. That
bodes well for the upside to continue.

Trade had to get back into the picture at some point, knew it would. The
week's rally was under the White House threat of Friday tariffs on China.
Friday that threat became reality. The White House announced $50B in
tariffs on Chinese goods via a 25% tariff rate. China vowed a response and
in the first hour of trade delivered it: soy beans, whiskey, beef and some
other US products. While it was hoped this stage of the trade reformation
talks could be avoided, they are now here.

Stocks struggled as the possibility became reality. Futures opened sharply
lower. When the session bell rang stocks opened lower but then dove lower
after the first half hour as China announced its tariffs.

That sharp 10 minute drop was met with equally sharp buying, snapping the
indices right back up. Didn't turn positive, but immediately jumped back
into the range. Stocks range-traded into mid-afternoon. Then at 2:00ET
buys hit and jumped stocks to session highs, trading basically flat from the
Thursday close. The move waffled some into the close but managed to hold a
decent part of the bounce.

SP500 -2.83, -0.10%
NASDAQ -14.66, -0.19%
DJ30 -84.83, -0.34%
SP400 -0.17%
RUTX -0.05%
SOX -0.08$
NASDAQ 100 -0.33%

VOLUME: NYSE +154%, NASDAQ +40%. Impressive expiration volume.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ +1.1:1. Impressively boring breadth.

All indices managed a very solid move off the session lows that frankly were
never that low. Keep in mind it was expiration Friday and that means
holdings will be shuffled to position for next expiration. The tariff news
was fortuitous in a way as it assisted some in the shuffle. Then the market
showed a rebound to near flat: the dip was bought. Fairly clear expiration
shuffling and positioning with the assist from the tariff news.

Most stocks managed a rebound though not all. Our positions mostly
recovered, but those that did not we exited. Many stocks showed a dip then
a rebound on strong volume. Some of these were the industrial stocks that
have lagged and you would think would have been hammered lower and nailed
the floor on the trade issues managed very nice price recoveries with
volume. HON, UTX, DE, EMR are just a few.

The leaders from other areas showed less drama. Software was up in many
cases. AMZN, FB, NFX, GOOG, NVDA, BABA all held up just fine. SQ, QRVO,
ATHM, LSCC, BRKS, BIDU, TXN and many other stocks rallied, some quite
nicely.

It was not carnage for the leading groups of stocks. It was not carnage for
the indices either. It was a day off for the growth indices. It was
another day of testing, and perhaps a shakeout, for the lagging indices.
Despite the 'horrors' of a trade war as China called it, the market rode out
the news and expiration, holding their relative positions.

Of course, that leaves the large cap NYSE indices still looking for a break
higher, but as noted above, the action has the look of a shakeout that could
provide that spring upside for a new breakout.


NEWS/ECONOMY

A mountain of data and news on the week. FOMC decision to add another rate
hike in 2018. ECB decision to possible end QE by 2019 but has no intention
of hiking rates. Retail sales rather solid. Atlanta Fed hopping up its
current quarter GDP estimate to 4.8%.

Friday it was tariffs. It was New York PMI at 25.0 over 20.1 in May. It
was Michigan Sentiment at 99.3, up from 98.0 in May. All solid enough.

Note, however, that Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May
fell and missed expectations.

Industrial Production: -0.1 vs 0.2 expected vs 0.9 prior (from 0.7)

Capacity Utilization: 77.9 versus 78.1 expected versus 78.1 April


Good and not so good, hot and cold.

Then there is the yield curve. The Fed is hiking the short end while longer
term bonds rally, pushing yields lower. That is flattening the curve, an
indication that economics are slowing or that the Fed is overreacting to the
economic pickup.

This is interesting. As you may recall, from the early stages of the
'recovery' under the Obama administration I said that the recovery would not
be good by historical standards, but, because it had been so long since we
had really good economic growth and because everyone was so starved for
improvement, that mediocre numbers would be described as 'great,' 'strong,'
and the like. That is exactly what happened, and a lot of people allowed
the story line to be skewed that way, allowed themselves to believe that
1.5% annual growth with 3 or 4 quarters spaced out over 8 years hitting the
high 3% level was a 'great' recovery.

Is the Fed a victim of the propaganda it helped underwrite? While growth is
vastly improved versus the Obama years, it is still well, well off 'strong'
or 'great.' Those words describe what was the recovery under Reagan: 4%,
5%, 7%, 11% quarterly GDP growth, massive capital investment, millions upon
millions of high quality (not food industry) jobs in tech, industrial,
mining, construction, and other sectors.

Those were strong numbers. What we are seeing now are decent. If this
quarter turns out to be 4.8%, THAT is strong. We will see, but those of us
who lived through the Carter years and the Reagan years know that even this
improvement in the economic condition is far from what our system is capable
if we get rid of all the socialist remnants from Bush and Obama.

I always find it revolting to hear purported experts say that capitalism
does not work in this world because of the income inequities generated the
past 10+ years. That is nonsensical. I heard the same thing in the Carter
years, about how America had a good run, but the world had changes and its
system just could not produce the same gains as in the past.

No the problem is under Bush and Obama we have careened well off the
capitalism course. Free enterprise works IF you have free enterprise. We
have handcuffed our system. Reagan showed what happens when you free up our
entrepreneurs, free up capital, remove restraints on investment and risk
taking. Trump is trying, but the Congress his party controls will not act
on his agenda to rid us of the ACA and other socialist restraints. If they
were gone, yes we could again post those dramatic gains.

And the meaning is . . .

Okay, so back to the current Fed. Is it drinking the Kool-Aid of the
economy growing too fast and being too strong? With 95.9M working aged
people still out of the workforce? With average GDP growth still in the
2's? Seriously? Yet, that is what we hear, meaning the Fed would like to
stymie growth in the 2% range.

Thus, the yield curve, a measure of true economic strength, is not happy
with the Fed cracking down on economic growth at these economic output
levels. It is telling you that the Fed risks overtightening -- something it
always does, sadly -- and the decent-ish economic growth we see right now
will be put at risk long before the economy ever has a chance to show what
it can really accomplish.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

Not bad action given the 'horror' of a trade war with China. As noted
below, even with this scenario and SP500 and DJ30 weighted with stocks that
will not like trade wars, they both held up remarkably well.

NASDAQ: After a new all-time high Thursday, NASDAQ opened lower, held 7700
on the low, and rebounded to a modest loss. NASDAQ shows good upside
volume, very good leadership, and Friday did nothing to change the strength
of the move higher.

SOX: This remains an enigma in this market, even more so than SP500 and
DJ30. SOX rallied quite well into early June, still shy of the March
all-time high, then tested a week back. It has held the 10 day EMA, but is
unable to break higher. Thursday as tech and growth rallied it bumped
higher, but nothing impressive. Still at the 10 day, and very important for
the market.

RUTX: Not exploding higher on the week but put in new highs yet again.
Thursday a new high, Friday a test intraday down near the 10 day EMA, then a
rush back upside for a most modest loss. Still very strong, still doing
well in a tariff fight environment.

SP400: Brushed a new high, just putting in one, but that was the extend of
the move. Not surprising given SP400 rallied 2 weeks to get to that point.
Wednesday was a little wild, but it calmed down nicely Thursday and Friday,
showing a pair of doji with tail, holding the 10 day EMA on the close.
Touched a new high then tested to consolidate the rally, now in good
position to move to a new high and this time make it stick.

SP500: Similar to SP400, a rally from late May into this week. Spent the
week rounding out the move and fading to test the 10 day EMA, holding above
it on the close. Nice shakeout action. Many big names have tested and held
on. We will see if the reach lower and recovery was indeed a good shakeout.

DJ30: Also rallied, moving past the May highs with a solid break two weeks
back, rounding out the top then fading to the 10 day EMA Thursday. Friday a
gap lower, a test of the 20 day EMA, then a rebound to the 10 day. Shakeout
here as well? Again, it will show if that is the case, but here is the
point: even with the 'worst case' scenario for trade the Dow held its
breakout over resistance.


LEADERSHIP

FAANG: As noted Thursday, all posted nice gains but AAPL. Friday they all
held good patterns, again except AAPL. It broke below the 20 day EMA and we
just did not want to mess with it anymore. AMZN tested modestly with a
doji. FB ditto. NFLX ditto. GOOG was actually up. These look fine.

Chips: QRVO, LSCC, BRKS, AVGO continued upside. Still some strength here.
NVDA doji tested. ON is in great shape. MU may have found its test bottom.
AAOI looks good in its test. There is promise here though many are
struggling.

Software: Some impressive moves in the circumstances. FFIV up again. GLUU
up. DATA solid upside. EA as well. RHT, VMW look excellent to move higher
again.

Industrials: EMR, UTX, HON all tested lower, rebounded nicely. CAT gapped
rather large and did not get back. TEX has to make a 50 day MA stand. MMM
is interesting and looks as if it is about to turn the corner upside. Still
possibilities here.

Metals: Very mixed action. NUE, STLD down. SCHN exploded higher. CLF
reached lower, recovered a lot of ground to show a doji holding the 10 day
EMA.

China: BABA faded Friday after a Thursday break higher. Holding the 10 day
EMA and still solid in its uptrend and breakout. ATHM pushed higher, HTHT
looks solid to break higher. IQ, after a huge move, threw a doji Friday.
SOHU showing a nice move to end the week. NTES looks interesting to turn
the corner back up, perhaps SINA as well.

Drugs/Biotech: Still some looking good. EXAS added to a week of good
gains. Others not so good. ARWR fell to the 10 day EMA rather abruptly.
IMMU is back at the 20 da after a bounce didn't keep running. BLUE jumped
Wednesday and Thursday but reversed those moves sharply Friday.

Internet: AKAM enjoyed a good week and was up 1.37% Friday; not bad. LLNW
still setting up for a move higher.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: -84.83 points (-0.34%) to close at 25090.48

Nasdaq
Stats: -14.66 points (-0.19%) to close at 7746.38
Volume: 3.04B (+39.45%)

Up Volume: 1.35B (-20M)
Down Volume: 1.64B (+865.56M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.02 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.35 to 1

New Highs: 167 (-27)
New Lows: 44 (+9)

S&P
Stats: -2.83 points (-0.10%) to close at 2779.66
NYSE Volume: 2.36B (+153.80%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.1 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.33 to 1

New Highs: 86 (-16)
New Lows: 71 (+20)


SENTIMENT

VIX: 11.98; -0.14
VXN: 15.42; -0.52
VXO: 11.01; +0.50

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.93; 0.00

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls up 5.5 points over the past three weeks, bears -1.4 over the same
period. After dropping rather sharply during the stock rebound, bulls
finally feel the upside a bit. Likewise, bears rallied into the selling,
now tailing off after a few weeks of upside. That is the way it works.

Bulls: 55.5 versus 52.9

Bears: 17.8 versus 17.7

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0
52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0
versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6
versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00 versus 64.7
versus 66.7 versus 64.4 versus 61.9 versus 64.1 versus 64.2 versus 62.3
versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6
versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5
versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2
versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00
versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5
versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5

Bears: 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2
17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8
versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7
versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6
versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2
versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4
versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0
versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.922% versus 2.933%. Bonds stemmed the selling on the week, worked
laterally long the 50 day MA's. Then they started to rally post-FOMC. Fed
raises rates and bonds rally, dropping yields? Again, not much faith shown
in the bond market that the Fed has a clue.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.933%
versus 2.977% versus 2.963% versus 2.952% versus 2.948% versus 2.928% versus
2.974% versus 2.935% versus 2.944% versus 2.902% versus 2.86% versus 2.857%
versus 2.79% versus 2.931% versus 2.992% versus 2.982% versus 3.063% versus
3.056% versus 3.06% versus 3.123% versus 3.096% versus 3.069% versus 2.997%
versus 2.97% versus 2.966% versus 3.006% versus 2.952% versus 2.948% versus
2.968% versus 2.954% versus 2.959% versus 2.975% versus 3.0245% versus 3.00%
versus 2.962% versus 2.96% versus 2.914% versus 2.867% versus 2.83% versus
2.829 versus 2.825% versus 2.781%


EUR/USD: 1.1607 versus 1.15678. After a gut punch plunge Thursday from the
50 day MA to almost the May low, the euro recovered just a bit. Nothing
major on the upside for the euro.

Historical: 1.15678 versus 1.17973 versus 1.17454 versus 1.17761 versus
1.17737 versus 1.17987 versus 1.1774 versus 1.1762 versus 1.1697 versus
1.166 versus 1.16993 versus 1.16643 versus 1.15446 versus 1.17148 versus
1.17096 versus 1.17022 versus 1.17826 versus 1.1786 versus 1.17714 versus
1.1802 versus 1.1811 versus 1.18272 versus 1.19358 versus 1.19411 versus
1.1913 versus 1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus 1.19619 versus
1.1983 versus 1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus 1.21291 versus
1.21788 versus 1.2163 versus 1.22232 versus 1.22094 versus 1.22876 versus
1.23464 versus 1.23748 versus 1.23712 versus 1.238532 versus 1.23313 versus
1.23299 versus 1.23720 versus 1.2359 versus 1.2311 versus 1.22812 versus
1.2247 versus 1.2285


USD/JPY: 110.668 versus 110.578. Dollar enjoyed gains all week but
Wednesday, the FOMC announcement day. Looked dead in late May. Quite the
comeback.

Historical: 110.578 versus 110.247 versus 110.381 versus 110.314 versus
109.466 versus 109.705 versus 110.164 versus 109.878 versus 109.90 versus
109.53 versus 108.767 versus 108.699 versus 108.699 versus 109.385 versus
109.667 versus 109.502 versus 110.833 versus 110.95 versus 110.76 versus
110.935 versus 110.376 versus 110.246 versus 109.693 versus 109.384 versus
109.40 versus 109.746 versus 109.038 versus 109.022 versus 109.08 versus
109.175 versus 109.628 versus 109.91 versus 109.354 versus 109.051 versus
109.28 versus 109.373 versus 108.894 versus 108.728 versus 107.645 versus
107.404 versus 107.409 versus 107.027 versus 107.010


Oil: 65.06, -1.83. It had to happen. After a 2 week climb back up to the
50 day EMA after breaking it in late May, oil rolled back over. Surging
dollar pushing it lower as well.


Gold: 1278.50, -29.80. Bombing lower as well, indeed breaking below the
May lows. That corrects the Thursday upside action that I called bizarre.


MONDAY

The 'week from hell' for the financial markets is in the books and NASDAQ,
RUTX and SP400 managed to put in new highs on the week before a bit of a
late week fade. SP500 and DJ30, the indices you would expect to get
hammered, while not coming close to new highs, held up very well, setting
themselves up for a new move higher despite news that most would have
predicted would scuttle any idea of an upside move. What doesn't kill you
makes you stronger, right?

SP500, DJ30 start the week in position to make good upside moves if the
conditions merge. Many tech stocks remain positive in their moves, not
extended after starting good upside breaks. Still like many of the patterns
out there. We are in several, and will look to be in more if they can make
good on the patterns in place. Thus far tech and growth have done so and we
will look at those hard. Don't forget, however, the industrials. As noted
before, if they could survive the back and forth dueling tariffs and hold
their patterns, it behooves you to keep a watch on them and when they break
higher, pick up the positions.

Have a great weekend!

End part 1
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Sunday, June 10, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 6-9-18

* * * *
6/9/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: CDXS; GALT
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- G-7 meeting contentious as expected, Canada accused of backstabbing was
unexpected, but Trump lays it on the table for all to see, offering true
free trade between the EU and the US. Bets if ANY nation will agree to
truly free trade?
- New highs on many indices, others close, and those lagging are looking
better.
- Will the market outlook regarding the future remain the same and yield
breaks higher from these good patterns? There is a better chance of that
than countries agreeing to true free trade.

The big story over the weekend was the G-7 (fka G-8, aka G6+1). Not that
there were no agreements and not that Trump and his advisors called Canada's
Trudeau dishonest and a backstabber. Those were indeed humorous moments,
and the latter not expected.

No, the real story was what Trump proposed after Europe complained about the
US' call for tariffs on the EU. After hearing all the euros complain about
the US placing tariffs on EU products because the EU placed tariffs on US
products and misused NAFTA, Trump called their bluff -- Trump offered NO
tariffs at all between the EU and the US. The old saying be careful what
you say you want because you might get it was never more in play. Only
Merkel had the guts to say something, and it was at least not negative: she
would consider that proposal.

Take that Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and all the other fake free trade
stooges. They are whining against Trump's tariff proposals because, they
say, we have to have 'free' trade with our allies. But there IS NO free
trade. The EU imposes all kinds of tariffs on all kinds of US goods. Every
day. Saying the US should not impose tariffs because it would disrupt free
trade is thus on its face absurd. Why were THEY not saying 'yes we want
free trade, so Europe, drop your tariffs on our goods and we won't impose
tariffs on yours. Quid pro quo. A bargained for exchange that helps all
participants.

Now the question is out there: do the euros REALLY want free trade? Do the
congressional republicans really want free trade or are they protecting
their donors? It is out there. We could have free trade. Are there the
guts to really take it?

Classic Trump bargaining. Everyone screams he is a madman. Robert DeNiro
unleashed a tirade this week that was not only obscene but makes you wonder
if senility has fully set in. Trump is actually bargaining, actually
negotiating as he did every day in business. The goal is clear, just as he
said while campaigning: free trade is fair trade, and our trade deals are
neither. He has shown he is the one wanting free trade. He made the
proposal. Again, does anyone have the guts to grab it? Does anyone REALLY
want true free trade?

THE MARKET

SP500 8.66, 0.31%
NASDAQ 10.44, 0.14%
DJ30 75.12, 0.30%
SP400 0.50%
RUTX 0.28%
SOX -0.85%
NASDAQ 100 flat

VOLUME: NYSE -12%, NASDAQ -16%. Friday volume fade on a session that was
both ways. Not bad, no heavy selling, just some low volume movement after
good breaks higher.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.4:1, NASDAQ 1.1:1. Modest as you would expect on a
flattish day.

Friday saw the midcaps lead, clearing to a new all-time high intraday. They
faded a bit, closing with a new all-time closing high. Another index hits
the A-T level, SP400 putting in a nice 6-session run.

SP500 put in a very acceptable week, finally clearing the May peaks. That
is all. It still has a lot of work, but started to do some work. Many
industrial stocks have some very interesting patterns. Ah, the pretty
picture syndrome NASDAQ experienced for a while. Then NASDAQ stocks broke
higher as did chips. All of them, of course, following RUTX and its string
of new highs.

RUTX is indeed impressive, rallying to another new high on Monday, Tuesday,
and Wednesday. Thursday it hit a new all-time high but faded. Friday was a
modest upside session. Still very strong if a bit extended -- again.

NASDAQ rallied to a new high on the week, dropped rather hard Thursday, then
Friday added some back. Solid pattern, waiting for the 10 day EMA to catch
up to it. When it does it is likely to surge again.

SOX rallied up to the March all-time high then faded Thursday and Friday to
the 10 day EMA. The chips came back to life and helped the market rally,
helped those other indices hit the new highs. Now we will see if the chips
can add their own new all-time high.

DJ30 posted a good week, continuing the prior Friday move up off the 50 day
SMA. DJ30 cleared the May highs and is now similarly situated as SP500 with
the March and February highs just overhead, still a long way off from that
January all-time high. Large caps have lagged, but their patterns are good.
As asked before, will the pretty patterns turn into good breakouts upside?


LEADERSHIP

Industrials: Still looking good, still need to show the good patterns can
convert. IP has a very nice look. UTX as well. HON started upside last
week. CAT still solid and DE continues to look ready to make the move.

Metals: This group has some nice patterns as well. SCHN, STLD, X. Perhaps
anticipating things not going so well at G-7. We will see how they react
Monday.

Software: Some struggled to end the week. NOW dumped Thursday, hung in
Friday. DATA also fell to near support. UIS enjoyed a great week. ATVI
remains solid. RHT, TTWO look good to go as well. MSFT testing the 10 day
MA, not bad at all.

Chips: NVDA looks very good with a 4-session test of the 10 day EMA. MXIM
testing the same level as well. TXN as well. NPTN looks quite good. Some
others as well, e.g. AAOI, MU -- these could provide new entries this week.

FAANG: FB in a nice 20 day EMA test on the week, weathering the continued
stream of bad news. GOOG looks ready to break higher again off the 10 day
EMA. AMZN may come back all the way to the 10 day and provide an entry.
NFLX is testing the 10 day as well and could provide something this week.

China: ATHM with a nice doji with tail tapping the 20 day EMA and
rebounding. HTHT tested the 10 day EMA as well, bounced Friday. BABA
tested to the 20 day, bounced Friday. Familiar story: test to near support,
bounce. IQ surged to a new all-time high with a 6+% gain; okay not all
tested the 10 day EMA.

Oil: Some broke higher starting Thursday. CRZO gapped and rallied that
session. COP continued climbing after the drop to the 50 day EMA the prior
week. XOM cracked to a higher recovery high.

Drugs/Biotech: Mixed bag, still many good stocks. ARWR testing the 10 and
20 day EMA on the week after a good rally. IMGN looked very good but then
reversed ugly Thursday and Friday. VVUS surged Friday; dang -- we watched
it, then watched it break higher. BLUE at the 50 day EMA and a 'must hold'
level. Other healthcare is not bad, e.g. EXAS, FATE looking quite good.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +75.12 points (+0.30%) to close at 25316.53

Nasdaq
Stats: +10.44 points (+0.14%) to close at 7645.51
Volume: 1.94B (-16.38%)

Up Volume: 1.16B (+110M)
Down Volume: 722.78M (-517.22M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.1 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.27 to 1

New Highs: 154 (-123)
New Lows: 18 (-14)

S&P
Stats: +8.66 points (+0.31%) to close at 2779.03
NYSE Volume: 774.1M (-12.35%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.43 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.2 to 1

New Highs: 117 (-49)
New Lows: 23 (-34)


SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.18; +0.05
VXN: 16.51; +0.06
VXO: 11.33; -0.40

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.95; +0.03

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls edged higher as part of a 4 week recovery from the plummet from the 65
range. Hardly a new surge. Bears are holding a rebound from the prior five
months, but frankly, it is not that much of a bounce.

Bulls: 50.0 versus 49.1

Bears: 19.2 versus 19.2

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 50.0 versus 49.1
49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2
versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5
versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00 versus 64.7 versus 66.7 versus 64.4
versus 61.9 versus 64.1 versus 64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5
versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5
versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1
versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0
versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00
versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9
versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5

Bears: 19.2 versus 19.2
19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6
versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6
versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4
versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1
versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.948% versus 2.928%. Bonds continued selling on the week but
Thursday surged back up through the 50 day MA. Held that level with a 50
day MA Friday with a doji. Yields faded some, but the recovery of bonds over
the 50 day MA is an interesting development.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.928%
versus 2.974% versus 2.935% versus 2.944% versus 2.902% versus 2.86% versus
2.857% versus 2.79% versus 2.931% versus 2.992% versus 2.982% versus 3.063%
versus 3.056% versus 3.06% versus 3.123% versus 3.096% versus 3.069% versus
2.997% versus 2.97% versus 2.966% versus 3.006% versus 2.952% versus 2.948%
versus 2.968% versus 2.954% versus 2.959% versus 2.975% versus 3.0245%
versus 3.00% versus 2.962% versus 2.96% versus 2.914% versus 2.867% versus
2.83% versus 2.829 versus 2.825% versus 2.781%


EUR/USD: 1.17737 versus 1.17987. Euro recovered last week, then tested
back to the 20 day MA. Will the G-* conclusion send the euro up again?

Historical: 1.17987 versus 1.1774 versus 1.1762 versus 1.1697 versus 1.166
versus 1.16993 versus 1.16643 versus 1.15446 versus 1.17148 versus 1.17096
versus 1.17022 versus 1.17826 versus 1.1786 versus 1.17714 versus 1.1802
versus 1.1811 versus 1.18272 versus 1.19358 versus 1.19411 versus 1.1913
versus 1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus 1.19619 versus 1.1983
versus 1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus 1.21291 versus 1.21788
versus 1.2163 versus 1.22232 versus 1.22094 versus 1.22876 versus 1.23464
versus 1.23748 versus 1.23712 versus 1.238532 versus 1.23313 versus 1.23299
versus 1.23720 versus 1.2359 versus 1.2311 versus 1.22812 versus 1.2247
versus 1.2285


USD/JPY: 109.466 versus 109.705. Dollar tested the 50 day MA to end the
week after recovering over that important level 9 sessions prior.

Historical: 109.705 versus 110.164 versus 109.878 versus 109.90 versus
109.53 versus 108.767 versus 108.699 versus 108.699 versus 109.385 versus
109.667 versus 109.502 versus 110.833 versus 110.95 versus 110.76 versus
110.935 versus 110.376 versus 110.246 versus 109.693 versus 109.384 versus
109.40 versus 109.746 versus 109.038 versus 109.022 versus 109.08 versus
109.175 versus 109.628 versus 109.91 versus 109.354 versus 109.051 versus
109.28 versus 109.373 versus 108.894 versus 108.728 versus 107.645 versus
107.404 versus 107.409 versus 107.027 versus 107.010


Oil: 65.74, -0.21. Oil sold off to end May, start June. Thursday a
bounce, Friday flat. Not that strong and this bounce likely hits the 10 day
EMA then rolls back over.


Gold: 1302.70, -0.30.


MONDAY

Thursday was a bit rocky for the growth indices such as NASDAQ and SOX, but
they recovered decently Friday and remain in good patterns. The setups in
the indices are still quite nice though RUTX may need some more time to test
and consolidate before it rallies again.

That leaves the other indices that have lagged as likely candidates to
rally. SP500, SP400 look good. Industrials are showing better patterns
whether machinery or metals. Money looked to be going their way last week,
but not definitive just yet. We are looking at IP, still looking at DE, and
watching to see if CAT and HON can deliver upside.

There are also many other groups looking good, some that have rallied well
and just tested near support. GOOG, NVDA are examples. They too provide
that push to not only NASDAQ but SP500 as well.

In short, there are many good patterns in the market, and that suggests the
indices will continue to climb -- if they can keep the same outlook toward
the futures after G-7 and the US/North Korea meeting on 6/14, we could see a
lot of new breaks higher.

Our plays to start the week are a mix of healthcare, chips, big names,
China, industrial. Will see what groups receive the money.

Have a great weekend!

End part 1
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Sunday, June 03, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 6-2-18

* * * *
6/1/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: BABA; IQ; WHD
Entry alerts: HTHT; TXN; VEEV
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

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alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

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Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
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the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- NASDAQ, SOX answer the call, RUTX remains solid, SP500 tries to follow.
- May jobs top expectations, wages rise.
- End of the part-time economy? Nearly 1M full-time jobs added.
- A good start to June with some new money, but it was . . . a Friday.

Thursday I noted that how the indices respond to the Thursday trade and end
of month drop would be the tell. I also said NASDAQ, and SOX if it could as
well, needed to break higher, citing MSFT, INTC, AAPL as key stocks.

Well, Friday they obliged. Futures were higher from the open of trade,
holding a fairly tight range into the actual jobs report. The President
tweeted a couple of hours ahead of the release that he was looking forward
to the numbers, and that was interpreted as an indication they would be
good. Some attributed the morning rise in futures to that tweet. Looking
at the timeline, however, that is hard to conclude given futures were
already up before the tweet and didn't move much at all from there. Oh
well. The President should not, however, be tweeting about upcoming reports
just as his predecessor should not have given out the numbers ahead of the
official release. What happens next time if there is no tweet? Assume they
are not so great?

The jobs report was good enough and indeed initially caused futures to drop
as the 'Fear of the Fed' reemerged. A surprise beat, decent wage growth,
and high-quality jobs as the Household Survey showed 904,000 full-time jobs
added. Now that is REAL jobs growth, not the Affordable Care Act stunted
part-time waiter and burger flipper jobs through 2016.

In any event, if there was some Fed fear, stocks moved past it rather
quickly, opening higher, rallying to 1:00ET, then working laterally, holding
the gains into the close.

SP500 29.35, 1.08%
NASDAQ 112.21, 1.51%
DJ30 219.37, 0.90%
SP400 0.61%
RUTX 0.88%
SOX 2.34%

VOLUME: NYSE -38%; NASDAQ -13%. NYSE trade faded back to average after a
sharp end of month spike Thursday. Decent trade is about all you can say.
NASDAQ still showed solid overall trade levels (2.2B vs 2.4B), still solidly
above average after a month-end housekeeping session Thursday.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 2.4:1, NASDAQ 2.4:1. Not the 4:1 from Wednesday, but
solid enough.


Yes, NASDAQ was a big leader with its big names working well. MSFT, INTC,
NFLX, BABA broke to higher highs. GOOG, NVDA, AAPL put in solid moves. It
is not unusual for techs to take some leadership in the summer and that is
why I put the emphasis on NASDAQ making a move. Good start.

Those leaders and many more gave NASDAQ a clean break from its May range,
clearing the January penultimate high. NASDAQ is now 34 points from the
March all-time closing high. Volume was not as big as the month-end trade,
but it was still solidly above average, the capper to a four-session run of
much improved volume.

SOX added the bonus move as it too broke higher and cleared the January
high. SP500 rallied back to near the top of its range in a decent move.
RUTX shook off the Thursday downside and moved right back up to the
Wednesday all-time high.

Thus, at least for Friday and the start of the new month the indices that
needed to contribute did just that. Okay, next week DJ30, SP500 and SP400
need to contribute . . . hey, it worked Friday.

We banked some gain on BABA, IQ and WHD as the former two hit our initial
targets. WHD struggled so we took the rest of the gain off the table. We
bought some HTHT, TXN, and VEEV. There were others we could have picked up,
e.g. AAPL, RHT, TTWO, but the volume was iffy, they did not move too far,
and we likely still get good entries to start next week. On top of that, a
quick review of stocks shows some nice patterns ready to move higher to
support the upside move. As noted all week, that is what the market needs,
i.e. enough leaders to push the indices.

JOBS REPORT

Jobs, May: 223K vs 190K exp vs 159K prior (from 164K)

Unemployment: 3.8% vs 3.9% prior. Lowest since 4/08

Wages 0.3% vs 0.1% prior; +2.7% year/year

Workweek: 34.5 as expected and unchanged

Participation: 62.7% vs 62.8% prior as 170K left the workforce.

Those not in the labor force are at a new record of 95.9M. The ACA still has
effects. It was never repealed, just tinkered with. It still has its impact
and it shows.

Black unemployment: 5.9% versus 6.6% prior. Lowest since 1972.

Retail: 31K
Healthcare 29K
Construction 25K
Professional/Business 23K
Manufacturing 18K
Temp -7800

Full-time versus Part-time.

Recall during the Obama years the monthly lament about the low wage,
part-time jobs dominating the jobs reports. With the ACA in place and other
non-growth policies, it did not behoove companies to expend money on
full-time employees. Many industries and sectors did not hire at all
because the economy was so slow in terms of growth (recall the years and
years of top line revenue misses as sales declined during the 'recovery').
These were mostly the industries where you would typically find full-time
jobs. Instead, companies paid dividends, bought back stock shares, and cut
costs anywhere and everywhere. That is how they 'beat' the bottom line
earnings expectations even with sales declining quarter after quarter.

Indeed, even if they wanted to hire full-time workers, the ACA made that
unprofitable because of the added taxes and costs. The lucky received
exemptions. Still, it did not pay to hire full-time workers given the
economy.

Thus the proliferation of part-time jobs. Every month we would lose more
full-time jobs but see more and more part-time jobs. The sectors hiring
were retail, hospitality and leisure, government (huge federal expansion
under Obama), retail, food and beverage.

Now look at today. Individual mandate removed (though the ACA is still
there, still causing price increases in insurance premiums and otherwise
plaguing small businesses), anti-growth regulations unwritten, several taxes
undone, both replaced with pro-growth policies and tax reductions and
incentives.

The result: we started to see a return to high quality jobs in construction,
manufacturing, finance, etc. We saw retail hires shrink. We saw low hour,
low wage part-time jobs dry up.

So much so that in May a record was set for full-time jobs at 904,000.
Almost 1 million new full-time jobs. Quality jobs.

President Obama likes to take credit, likes to say he 'set the table' for
this rebound. In a way, yes he did. His policies were so anti-growth and
anti-business I said, during the heat of the election campaign, that WHOEVER
won could preside over a booming economy just by being smart and rolling
back the economy-crippling regulations and taxes. Clinton, Trump, Christie,
Cruz, etc., etc. Heck, even Bernie Sanders could have done so if he got rid
of the regulations and taxes (which he would not do, instead he would have
piled on more).

Thus, Obama DID set the table but it was not in the way he implies, i.e.
that his policies set up a growth environment. No, it was because his
policies HELD BACK what would have been a stronger, natural US economy
recovery that Trump's economy looks so good. I mean, Trump has not repealed
the ACA, just the mandate. He has removed a lot of regs, but there are
still many hobbling and hindering business. If he was able to do what he
wanted or said, the economy would REALLY be rumbling higher.

And that brings me to another point. I said this all during the prior
administration: we were being 'dummied down' in our understanding of what a
really strong economy is. We were told the US could not grow as fast as in
the past, etc. -- the same old tripe we were told in the Carter years.
'Nice try US, it worked for a while but the gravy train is over.' Then a
free enterprise President with a clear understanding of what drives that
system was elected. Huge boom.

So today I hear Cramer on CNBC say this was the best economy of his lifetime
(he is older than I am). Nonsense. The 1980's were stronger and broader.
Stronger GDP growth, more jobs created, all sectors booming, NEW tech
sectors emerging and booming. There is NO comparison. Today is 'okay'
growth, the kind of growth generated after the first few years of the Reagan
policies generated 4%, 6%, 7%, 10% and higher GDP rates. Strongest in his
lifetime? Absurd. But, Cramer has a history of these kind of statements,
i.e. full of BS and hyperbole.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

NASDAQ: Top billing given the breakout form the 2+ week lateral range and
the fact I noted Thursday it needed to do so. Volume lower but still
solidly above average as it takes out the January high and is running at the
March all-time high. Did what it needed, decent trade, good action from the
big names as well as the not so big names.

SOX: Clean break higher here as well, moving past the recent attempts at
higher highs. Now also cleanly past the mid-January peak. Some resistance
at 1420 from the bottom of the all-time high weeklong range and gap point
(less than 9 points away). Of course the prior high is wrapped up in that
resistance so it is basically an all-inclusive level to get through.

RUTX: New high Wednesday with a big surge off the weeklong test of the 10
day EMA. Faded Thursday, but Friday rallied right back to the all-time high
from Wednesday. Solid break higher, small caps still look good even if this
was not a session where they were in the lead (as has been the case the past
month).

SP500: Gapped off the 50 day EMA from the Thursday close, moved to a new
closing high in its lateral range. Not really a breakout as it has not
cleared the chaff at the top of the range. A good move aided by of course
the big NASDAQ names that started upside. Now it has to . . . actually make
the move and make it stick.

SP400: The midcaps looked so good Wednesday with their strong surge to a
new recovery high, clearing the range. Thursday gave that move back and
Friday, while higher, was an uninspired gap to a doji well below the
Wednesday and Thursday highs. Quite the letdown.

DJ30: Speaking of letdowns, DJ30 looked great two Mondays back, gapping
upside and out of its range. It gave that back, then really stunk the place
up with the Tuesday gap to the 50 day SMA. It bounced back and forth each
session since, going nowhere. Its claim to fame is that it did not break
below the 50 day MA. With the other indices breaking higher, that is faint
praise.


LEADERSHIP

FAANG: Have to start here as several are NASDAQ stocks. AAPL broke upside
from a 3 week lateral range over the 10 day EMA. Not any volume, but
promising for next week. FB continued a break higher from Thursday closing
with an all-time high closing price. NFLX Broke nicely higher off a 4-day
lateral move. GOOG gapped sharply higher and cleared the early May peak.
Two good days of upside price and volume. AMZN edged higher again on still
very low trade. All higher so NASDAQ was higher.

Chips: INTC put in a multiyear high with a solid upside break with volume.
MU recovered some from the Thursday downgrade drop. AMD posted a sharp move
and is now at the top of a 17 month trading range. AVGO is moving over its
200 day SMA. QRVO has set a good pattern. Others look stronger, e.g. XLNX,
ASML, SIMO. Indeed, SMTC broke sharply higher Thursday. The group is
coming around though it is not 'there' yet.

Software: VMW gapped sharply higher on earnings, clearing the May high;
that could produce an entry after a lateral test. MSFT broke to a new high.
VEEV broke higher Friday on very nice trade. NOW continues its comeback,
closing at an all-time closing high. FFIV is trying to break higher again.
TTWO started higher but could use more trade. GLUU is trying the same.
Very solid stocks working better.

Drugs/Biotechs: A mixed group but very good patterns and moves. ARWR
posted another good week. IMMU bouncing off the 10 day EMA. VCEL breaking
higher off a test. VVUS in a nice test. The group continues to produce
winners.

China: New life. BABA broke upside Friday. YY broke higher earlier in the
week. IQ broke sharply higher starting Wednesday. ATHM, HTHT enjoyed
strong weeks and Friday SOHU started upside with a nice move.

Industrial: Struggled but through they struggle they held on and have
worked some good consolidations, e.g. HON, BA. CAT can go into that
category as well.

Oil: Tough prior week, some healing this week though no clear renewal of
the upside. COP recovered decently off a 50 day MA test. APC likewise.
MRO recovered off a 20 day EMA test. CVX is trying to bounce from the 50
day MA. Others are struggling, e.g. PTEN, SPN, NBR -- small drillers and
operators.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +219.37 points (+0.90%) to close at 24635.21

Nasdaq
Stats: +112.22 points (+1.51%) to close at 7554.33
Volume: 2.2B (-12.7%)

Up Volume: 1.59B (+797.72M)
Down Volume: 568.39M (-1.122B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.41 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.57 to 1

New Highs: 206 (+48)
New Lows: 43 (-7)

S&P
Stats: +29.35 points (+1.08%) to close at 2734.62
NYSE Volume: 856.023M (-37.52%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.37 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.72 to 1

New Highs: 116 (+14)
New Lows: 40 (-26)


SENTIMENT

VIX: 13.46; -1.97
VXN: 15.11; -1.67
VXO: 12.52; -1.46

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.86; -0.27

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls edged higher as part of a 4 week recovery from the plummet from the 65
range. Hardly a new surge. Bears are holding a rebound from the prior five
months, but frankly, it is not that much of a bounce.

Bulls: 50.0 versus 49.1

Bears: 19.2 versus 19.2

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 50.0 versus 49.1
49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2
versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5
versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00 versus 64.7 versus 66.7 versus 64.4
versus 61.9 versus 64.1 versus 64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5
versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5
versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1
versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0
versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00
versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9
versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5

Bears: 19.2 versus 19.2
19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6
versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6
versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4
versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1
versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.902% versus 2.86%. After a early week on the trade scares, bonds
slipped back to end the week, pushing yields higher. Now testing the 50 day
MA and the lower gap point from Tuesday.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.86%
versus 2.857% versus 2.79% versus 2.931% versus 2.992% versus 2.982% versus
3.063% versus 3.056% versus 3.06% versus 3.123% versus 3.096% versus 3.069%
versus 2.997% versus 2.97% versus 2.966% versus 3.006% versus 2.952% versus
2.948% versus 2.968% versus 2.954% versus 2.959% versus 2.975% versus
3.0245% versus 3.00% versus 2.962% versus 2.96% versus 2.914% versus 2.867%
versus 2.83% versus 2.829 versus 2.825% versus 2.781%


EUR/USD: 1.166 versus 1.16993. Bounced up to the 10 day EMA, bumping there
Thursday and Friday, showing doji. Likely fails here.

Historical: 1.16993 versus 1.16643 versus 1.15446 versus 1.17148 versus
1.17096 versus 1.17022 versus 1.17826 versus 1.1786 versus 1.17714 versus
1.1802 versus 1.1811 versus 1.18272 versus 1.19358 versus 1.19411 versus
1.1913 versus 1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus 1.19619 versus
1.1983 versus 1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus 1.21291 versus
1.21788 versus 1.2163 versus 1.22232 versus 1.22094 versus 1.22876 versus
1.23464 versus 1.23748 versus 1.23712 versus 1.238532 versus 1.23313 versus
1.23299 versus 1.23720 versus 1.2359 versus 1.2311 versus 1.22812 versus
1.2247 versus 1.2285


USD/JPY: 109.53 versus 108.767. Up off the lows at the 50 day MA tested
early week. Interesting collision with the 200 day SMA ahead.

Historical: 108.767 versus 108.699 versus 108.699 versus 109.385 versus
109.667 versus 109.502 versus 110.833 versus 110.95 versus 110.76 versus
110.935 versus 110.376 versus 110.246 versus 109.693 versus 109.384 versus
109.40 versus 109.746 versus 109.038 versus 109.022 versus 109.08 versus
109.175 versus 109.628 versus 109.91 versus 109.354 versus 109.051 versus
109.28 versus 109.373 versus 108.894 versus 108.728 versus 107.645 versus
107.404 versus 107.409 versus 107.027 versus 107.010 versus 107.362 versus
107.267 versus 106.882 versus 106.873 versus 107.09 versus 107.16 versus
106.939 versus 107.11 versus 106.816 versus 106.797 versus 105.901 versus
106.286 versus 106.81 versus 105.397 versus 105.473 versus 104.789 versus
104.829 versus 105.892 versus 106.478 versus 105.945 versus 105.946


Oil: 65.81, -1.23. After trying to retake the 50 day MA Wednesday and
Thursday, oil failed as anticipated, falling to a lower closing low on this
selling. 60.00 looks probable still.


Gold: 1299.30, -5.40. Rallied up to the 200 day SMA through Thursday,
tried to break over but failed, then Friday gapped lower. Looks as if
gold's bounce is failing as well.


MONDAY

Good moves from key indices and stocks to end the week. That is all well
and good. Needed to do it. But, you know what is next: can they not only
hold the moves but can they push the gains? The patterns look right, the
leadership is expanding some, moves are starting. With this market,
however, there is no resting on laurels.

Fortunately there are good patterns we see ready to step up and help
continue the drive higher. Naturally we will be looking at those for plays
to further participate in the upside. With NASDAQ and SOX breaking higher
and SP500 not looking atrocious, we want to have money in them if the moves
are made.

Summer is getting going, often stocks stumble through summer even if tech
shows some leadership. That is working against the upside, but the patterns
are fanning out a bit, and a rally loves having a lot of stocks in good
patterns to drive it higher. We have some great plays in very good stocks
and are looking at even more; if the market wants to set up leaders and send
them running higher, I am not going to question it.

I have seen too many smart people outsmart themselves and miss out on good
runs that are presented simply because they are at the wrong time of the
year or otherwise make no sense. As you know, the market does not always
make sense. It does, however, set up the same kind of patterns and moves
over and over and over. They don't always make the moves (just pretty
pictures until they do, right?), but when they ARE making the moves, it is
time to move with them. We will see if this coming week the new breaks can
hold and continue higher, pulling more indices and stocks with them.

Have a great weekend!

End part 1
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