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2/14/2015 Investment House Report
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NOTE: Part 3 will be sent Sunday. Jon Johnson is traveling and inclement weather has delayed him for a day. Thank you.
Targets hit: FEYE; MTSN
Buy alerts: GRUB
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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- New highs, almost all the way around.
- Investors not afraid of a long weekend.
- Solid moves from many sectors.
- If we can survive to 2017 and play our cards right, we could see the 1980's again.
- FOMC members out in force against an audit, tout the benefits of the Fed's 100 years. Benefits? Look at the dollar.
- Lots of fast talk explaining why retail sales are weak and people don't feel the effects of the recovery. Maybe, just maybe because the recovery is not benefitting a large group.
- VIX is still a concern.
- Okay, the market made new highs. As Ben Franklin said of the new government, now can they hold it?
It wasn't a lock, but they pulled it off.
Futures were up but not surging. The issues of the week once again appeared to be resolved. Europe and Russia had a Ukraine cease-fire. It wasn't in effect and they were fighting still, but the ceasefire hasn't gone into effect, so get your shots in while you can, right?
Greece and the EU were on again after the reports of a 'agreement in principle' Thursday fell apart. Greece officials were saying at the Monday meeting with EU finance ministers it had to do 'whatever it can' to get a deal. Apparently there is only so much liquidity in Greece, and the reality of comments such as the country could get money from Russia, China, the US or whoever to fund its ongoing overspending started to hit home (i.e. no way that could happen).
With that 'positive' backdrop, futures were up. Not surging, but they were up on top of the week's prior gains. The question we posed in the pre-market was whether modest gains early in the session would hold with a 3-day weekend on top of a nice stock market rally for the week.
It turns out investors (that is the term we are almost euphemistically using to describe current market participants) were not phased at all by the holiday weekend on top of the week's rally. It wasn't all cake, and stocks turned negative in the early afternoon session. They came back, however, and the fact they came back after selling negative is a testament in itself as to the buy side's tenacity.
Not only did the bids return after midday weakness, they were on a mission. A mission to drive the indices to new highs. They did so across the board . . . sans DJ30. Oh it wasn't a blastoff to massive new highs; volume was lower and breadth quite mediocre in contrast to the Thursday move. Still, when NASDAQ made the key move to that higher high Thursday, it had the volume. Key moves accompanies by volume are what you want to see, and at least NASDAQ showed it Thursday.
SP500 8.51, 0.41%
NASDAQ 36.23, 0.75%
DJ30 46.97, 0.26%
VOLUME: NYSE -5%, NASDAQ -6%
A/D: NYSE 1.7:1, NASDAQ 1.8:1
NASDAQ and SOX again led the gains as on Friday. That is fitting to see growth again taking the lead on new highs. RUTX and SP400 lagged somewhat, but their gains were better than the large cap NYSE. Definitely a growth-led move, and that is always a good thing.
Of course now the questions come. Can stocks hold the move? What about VIX falling to a level that triggered other bouts of selling over the past few months? Perhaps, however, with the indices breaking out the correlation breaks down? Further, what about VIX remaining overall elevated, even though it fell last week, as the market hits higher highs? Valuations are as extreme as 2007, indeed worse by some calculations.
These contrast others who say this is just the start of major move higher.
Short term there likely is testing of this move. Recall SP400 breaking to a higher high 1.5 weeks back. It immediately came back to test. Of course the rest of the market was not following it so it had to test, but it is not unusual to test breaks to new highs, particularly when there is a correlation set up between VIX and stock prices in a range. Yes the indices are breaking out of that range, but they are not blowing it away just yet, not in all cases. Again, breaks higher or breaks lower typically are tested either quickly or a week or so down the road. Doesn't mean the move is over, not at all. The tell, of course, is in how the test unfolds.
In any event, the move Friday on top of a week of gains ahead of a long weekend was somewhat impressive in its audacity if not in its internals.
The future could be great, IF . . .
In listening to all the back and forth on the week regarding the significance of this move to the highs in the range vis- -vis consumers still not spending as much (see January retail sales miss Thursday), earnings great in some instances, so-so in most others, continuing M&A, dividend payments, and stock buybacks in lieu of real capital investment, and the downturn in US economic activity in December and January, a thought occurred to me.
If the US can make it through 2016 without layering on ever more regulation, taxation, and intrusion in markets and businesses (something hardly answered at this point given just this past week the FEC's proposed rules taking over the internet with a 1930's telecom law), things could be very interesting.
We could see a 1980's-style boom in capital investment given the trillions of dollars that are not being invested because of the regulatory burdens and punitive tax schemes for businesses and individuals thanks to the ACA and the hundreds of thousands of other regulations enacted the past 6 years.
Just as sure as money was squirreled away in tax shelters in the 1970's, where the game was to avoid losing money versus making money and the country plodded its way through a malaise, money is not being put to work building, developing, creating as it typically is in the US. Stock buybacks, dividend payments, M&A (buy it, don't build it) are the 'new normal' forms of investment, along with money held overseas, awaiting a more favorable climate to start investing, building, researching, developing.
Ronald Reagan's son once asked him why he only made one movie a year given he made so much off of that movie. The not-quite-40th-President yet told his son that if he made a second movie, 90% of the profits would be taxed away, leaving just 10% to reward the movie studio, actors, etc. If the film was a flop, the risk of loss was huge. If it was a success, the reward was miniscule. Better not to invest in that second film, but wait until next year and do one then as well.
The same logic applies today. If the next President is smart, he or she will roll back regulations promulgated the past six years as fast as possible, energize Congress to reform the tax code, and provide incentives to invest and build in the US. Not the idiotic 'shovel ready' infrastructure that every socialist and communist country touts as the great jobs creator, but letting the private sector determine where the money should go, providing tax incentives to invest WHEREVER a person or business sees opportunity.
If that is done, trillions of dollars will come flying into the economy, growth will surge, revenues will explode, and, if we don't get stupid (as we always do) and spend $1.50 or more for every tax dollar that comes in, we could correct our deficit problem in no time. Moreover, others would pay up to invest in the US and its strength because the dollar would be so strong everyone would want dollar-based assets. I would love to be the next President. A few simple steps and in economic terms you would go down in history as a great.
FOMC takes to the airwaves to defeat being audited.
Speaking of meddling as referenced above, we have the Fed. This past week many of the twelve (a direct reference to 'The Nine' witch kings from 'The Lord of the Rings') spread out across the land (for them that means the financial stations) to strike back against the congressional bill calling for audits of the Fed to see just where our money is being used. A good question since there are many well-sourced stories out about the Fed using our money to prop up banks, corporations, and countries around the world. We should know why we have 0% interest rates, why our seniors cannot save but have to risk everything in financial markets.
But that would be foolish the smooth talking, indeed smug, FOMC governors instruct us. My goodness, Congress cannot even pass a budget as required by the Constitution and it wants to oversee the Fed? Preposterous of course as it would only be used for political gain and thus the independence of the Fed would be destroyed along with its credibility.
No one can argue that Congress knows damn little about how to run anything. Nor the executive. Nor congressional or executive appointees. Government cannot run anything and, alas, the Fed is a governmental body created by the Congress.
All we want to know is where the money is going. The Fed says it is transparent, but only in discussing interest rates and the concept of QE. It says nothing about WHERE it sends the money, where it makes those purchases, what countries, governments, groups, companies, individuals, etc. get the money or its benefit.
But we are told that the Fed has been around for 100 years and look how great the US is. The Fed is obviously doing the right thing and should be free from this kind of oversight into its inner workings and dealings. Even governor Fisher was dripping smugness when he said the same on Wednesday.
Credibility? The Fed cannot even admit that keeping rates at 0% during the Greenspan era fostered the housing bust. Or that loading the economy with liquidity ahead of Y2K surged NASDAQ 75% only to send it plummeting from 5000 to 1100 when it pulled all liquidity at once and jacked up interest rates in early 2000. How it was too tight at the threshold of the Great Recession with Mr. Bernanke saying the housing market was stable and was in no danger. How now Ms. Yellen cites the falling unemployment rate, that everyone knows is falling due to lack of participation, is a solid indicator of economic recovery.
What about those 100 years? Yes the economy has climbed higher and higher, but what has happened to our buying power? In those 100 years the dollar is been shredded, losing value steadily against gold that used to back it. Gold buys the same amount of goods or services it always has. A dollar, on the other hand, has lost over 90% of its value in that time.
Looked at another way:
Yes, an independent Federal Reserve has been so good to the US citizens. We certainly should not meddle in its affairs; we might find we could have a more valuable currency.
Retail Sales are not low, they just are not tracking the real spending. Yeah, right.
All week, before and after the putrid January Retail Sales figures Thursday (-0.8% versus -0.4% versus -0.9% prior), speculation raged about why consumers were not spending money when jobs were better, the economy was better, and they had the 'gasoline tax cut.'
As is often the case, those wanting to put forth a particular agenda came up with something completely off the wall to explain it: consumers ARE spending, but not on retail goods. They are going out and obtaining services such as massages, facials, lawn care, meals. After all, we are a service economy, right?
Makes so much sense. Until you ask the people in the service industry how their business is. Golly gee, it is as bad as the retail business, at least for the smaller players in the economy.
Maybe not even the small players. Seen PNRA's chart of late? How about CMG? It is not bad all over, but it is not exactly Mai Thais and Yahtzee (from 'Con Air', 1997).
Nicholas Cage, 'Con Air'
That is the way it has been since 2008 and the stimulus package: at that point the federal government made it clear who were the chosen. The large corporations received most of the funds, and those that were left over went to pay some political favors. Regulations at the rate of tens of thousands per year were promulgated that benefitted the large versus the small. The ACA was passed so we could see what was in it. We knew what it was and now we see what it is doing: driving small businesses out of business as, despite the recovery, the US is still killing more small businesses than creating. How healthy!
Perhaps the argument is correct, but misplaced. Yes, perhaps consumers ARE spending more on services. BUT, it is not discretionary services is it? No. It is mandated service acquisition in the form of higher costs of healthcare thanks to the ACA. People MUST spend to acquire insurance or be fined. Either way they are spending, right?
Mr. Liesman on CNBC dismissed the notion the services being purchased were mandated healthcare, saying 'his' group's research showed that spending was lower and thus was not the services where money is being spent.
The fallacy with his position: Liesman looks at average spending and says it is lower. Indeed, that is what the Administration looks at as well in concluding costs are lower.
Remember my discussion of how the costs vary, how a subsidized person can spend $4/month for the same insurance the person who does not qualify for a subsidy spends $4000 to $4800? The person spending the higher amount has seen his or her insurance continue to spike higher. Many saw 30%+ increases last year and are seeing at least the same this year. The AVERAGE cost, however, thanks to the new people put in the system with insanely low costs, is lower. Thus is LOOKS as if the average cost is lower, but we who are in the system KNOW the costs are higher because we are paying higher rates to cover generally higher priced policies as well as those who pay virtually nothing.
Talk about a regulatory burden. A small business that just meets the criteria is suddenly slammed with expenses it cannot afford to pay or pass along to employees because THEY cannot afford to pay it. Thus they have horrible choices. Lay people off and watch their business shrink instead of have a chance to grow, hire more people and cut everyone's hours below the minimum and thus risk losing good workers, or pay the freight and run out of money. The only way to make it work is to suddenly quadruple in size to get some economy of scale. In this economy, however, we know that just isn't going to happen.
NASDAQ: Only one more high to top, and that is 5133 from March 2000. 15 years ago less a month. Could NASDAQ be there in a month (closed at 4893.84 Friday)? The week saw NASDAQ start at the 10 day EMA just below the November and December peaks. It bounced, hit those highs, then Thursday gapped through them. Friday the same story. Good volume Thursday, lower but decent volume Friday. It showed the volume when it needed and it looks strong now. After a big breakout, it like will test in the near future, but it made the move and it made it with some strength as it came off the January low, showing volume and leadership.
SOX: A week of gains here as well took SOX just past the December peaks. A strong 2 weeks that got dicey Monday and the prior Friday. It held the line and rallied well, following NASDAQ. As with NASDAQ it will test the move before too long, but it will take its cue from that index.
SP400: Similar to NASDAQ, the midcaps rallied to the December peak last week, tested, then Thursday took off. Gapped upside and rallied to the close. Gapped and rallied Friday as well. Excellent upside break. SP400 took to the lead in late December, faded, then took the lead again the last week of January. It is still leading and that is very positive for the market overall.
RUTX: Coming to life, from laggard to co-leader, though still kind of following the other growth indices. Cannot argue with the move, however, rallying form late January, testing into early this week, then surging higher, taking out the summertime peaks then the late December peak Friday.
SP500: New high by the skin of its teeth, but a new high. Kind of a follower with volume lower and below average all week. This one suggests that VIX may be ready to push stocks into a test sooner than later.
DJ30: No new high for you. At 18,104, the prior high is just 86 points away, an easy day's work if the Dow gets it going. It likely could have been there with the other indices but for AXP sinking the index Thursday and Friday. As it is, DJ30 is at a double top and may make the prior high just as the market overall tests the breakouts following the nice two week advance off the bottom of the trading range.
Chips: SOX hitting a new high and chips from many different areas and sizes contributing to the move. We have our plays making us money, e.g. ANAD, ENPH, NXPI, MTSN. Others don't stink, e.g. SWKS, BRCM, NVDA.
Internet related: GOOG is still surging up to the 200 day SMA. TRIP rallied again after its gap on earnings. TWTR is still solid after its upside gap. GRUB surged back up off its test that filled the gap.
Software: SPLK jumped yet again after its nice breakout test. FEYE is blasting off, hitting our initial target Friday.
Energy: Still working higher after that pause, no doubt aided by a recovery in oil prices. APC gapped higher again. PTEN jumped on strong volume. SLB gapped upside to a higher high on this rally.
Retail: Still strong but some toppy looks, e.g. ROST, possibly TJX, BBBY. EVLV still looks quite good with a solid Friday move.
China: NOAH is still solid with a good move. JD is in a great pattern. SINA still moving up. Others slammed recently look better or are trying to rebound, e.g. SOHU, BIDU.
Stats: +36.22 points (+0.75%) to close at 4893.84
Volume: 1.878B (-6.44%)
Up Volume: 1.29B (-200M)
Down Volume: 629.36M (+69.5M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.75 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.39 to 1
New Highs: 136 (+3)
New Lows: 30 (+4)
Stats: +8.51 points (+0.41%) to close at 2096.99
NYSE Volume: 760M (-5.32%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.66 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.35 to 1
New Highs: 176 (+13)
New Lows: 7 (-4)
Stats: +46.97 points (+0.26%) to close at 18019.35
VIX: 14.69; -0.65
VXN: 15.15; -0.95
VXO: 14.48; -0.46
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; +0.1
Bulls and Bears:
Bulls: 52.5% versus 49.0% versus 53.1% versus 49.0%. As expected, bulls rose with the market gains. Working in the same lateral range since November after rallying off that dip in October that was the lowest reading
Bears: 15.2% versus 16.3% versus 16.3% versus 17.4% versus 16.3% versus 15.2%. So much for holding steady as bears flop back to the lows. But, even this 'flop' is part of a very long, flat lateral move of virtually no bears, or no change in bearishness.
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
49.0% versus 53.1% versus 49.0% versus 48.0% versus 50.5% versus 56.4% versus 52.5% versus 49.5% versus 51.5% versus 53.4% versus 56.5% versus 56.4% versus 55.5% versus 54.6% versus 47.0% versus 35.3% versus 37.8% versus 45.5% versus 47.5% versus 48.0% versus 52.5% versus 57.6% versus 56.1% versus 52.5%
Background: Last undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June 2012.
16.3% versus 16.3% versus 17.4% versus16.3% versus 15.2% versus 14.9% versus 15.8% versus 14.9% versus 14.8% versus 13.9% versus 13.8% versus 14.9% versus 14.8% versus 15.1% versus 16.3% versus 18.2% versus 17.3% versus 14.1% versus 15.1% versus 15.3% versus 15.2% versus 14.1% versus 13.3% versus 15.1% versus 16.2%
Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Right now bulls are coming back down from the 60 level that has consistently marked market tops over the past two years. The rapid decline in progress is pushing the bulls/bears lines toward one another. Still far from a cross with bulls falling faster than bears are rising, but bears are warming up to the notion of market weakness.
Bonds (10 year): 2.03%.
1.99% versus 1.98% versus 1.99% versus 1.95% versus 1.94% versus 1.81% versus 1.77% versus 1.78% versus 1.68% versus 1.67% versus 1.76% versus 1.73% versus 1.81% versus 1.82% VERSUS 1.80% versus 1.88% versus 1.86% versus 1.79% versus 1.83% versus 1.76% versus 1.84% versus 1.91% versus 1.91% versus 1.95% versus 2.02% versus 1.97% versus 1.94% versus 2.04% versus 2.12% versus 2.17% versus 2.19% versus 2.21% versus 2.25%
Breaking below the 50 day EMA for the first time since September 2014. That big surge was the near term top as Rick Santelli called just over two weeks back.
Oil: 52.67, +1.48. Wednesday oil looked weak but it bounced Thursday, and then Friday moved up through the 50 day SMA. It is not dead on this move yet, and with MACD surging and a short inverted head and shoulders pattern in place, anticipate a beak up to the 50 day EMA at 54 soon. It likely takes it out but there is a lot of resistance at 55 to deal with.
Gold: 1227.00, +6.70. Trying to bounce after breaking the 50 day SMA Wednesday, but a pretty tepid move.
$/JPY: 118.83 versus 118.915 versus 120.26 versus119.48 versus 118.62 versus 118.987 versus 117.56 versus 117.21 versus 117.58 versus 117.52 versus 117.40 versus 118.30 versus 117.54 versus 117.88 versus 118.45
Holding at the 20 day EMA after the Thursday flop. Market would like to see it hold.
Euro/$: 1.1390 versus 1.1409 versus 1.1294 versus 1.1315 versus 1.1324 versus 1.1318 versus 1.1474 versus 1.1387 versus 1.1481 versus 1.1336 versus 1.1290 versus 1.1318 versus 1.1287 versus 1.1375 versus 1.1263 versus 1.1204 versus 1.1366 versus 1.1590 versus 1.1550 versus 1.1543 versus 1.1609 versus 1.1789 versus 1.1764 versus 1.1832 versus 1.1842 versus 1.1789 versus 1.1839 versus 1.1890 versus 1.1934 versus 1.2002 versus 1.2099 versus 1.2156
Doji at the 20 day EMA where the DXY0 has held on this entire move. Thus an important test.
Recall we did not think this move off the low of the range would not make it to new highs back when it started. That premise remained even as the move continued. We prepped some downside plays, entered some. Some worked e.g. GMCR, others started to but have struggled. Indeed, it is interesting several are STILL in position to sell off even as the indices hit new highs.
But I digress. Though we operated under the premise the indices would not make new highs, we have a lot of upside plays. Why? Because the market was primed to bounce, we played the bounce, and lo, stocks are still moving higher. When NASDAQ made that higher low at the 50 day SMA early in the week, our we started to warm to the idea there may be breakouts, particularly given SP400 already made the move.
The beauty of it is, as we said a few times on the way up, if stocks kept moving higher we would make money because we don't try to think we are smarter than the market, we just stick with good plays until they don't work. Obviously with the moves the market made, they are working.
There are good things happening in the market. New highs are showing up all over the place. The A/D lines have turned up. New highs in indices, new highs in stocks, new leaders turning up, old leaders still leading.
Now that the indices are at new highs suddenly everyone looks at the market again. Sometimes new highs begat more new highs as money rushes in to chase the move. That pushes our positions higher and creates opportunity to take gain in that regard as well as new upside plays.
It also means be a bit careful. After the rush of money the move is typically done near term and needs a rest. Thus, on a further rush higher next week, be prepared to bank some more gain. It is expiration week as well so you can bet more gains will be met with some selling, But it also will mean some volume as MANY felt the market would not make new highs, and if the indices hold the new highs they will be forced to roll out positions and otherwise cover. Again, that leads to some upside pressure.
You know that typically after new highs the market tests those highs at some point. A rush higher in expiration week is tailor made to take some gain and then anticipate some pullback. It may come, it may not, but if positions hit or tickle the targets or are up many days in a row, banking some gain ins prudent. If things pull back you look like a genius. And things will pull back at some point in the near future after this kind of move and given the breakouts.
So, we use the move to our advantage, as always. That does not mean we here are not going to look at other upside. To the contrary, while many stocks are up, we are looking around for others to play. Not all stocks rise at the same time. Further, even in a pullback good stocks will hold their patterns, and we want to be ready. Also, just because we think a pullback is due, doesn't mean it will happen anymore than it meant the indices would not make higher highs.
So, we look for up and coming areas, and if the market continues and they make the moves from good risk/reward levels, we participate in those moves. I always say a stock or an index can run farther, upside or downside, than we rationally think possible. Moreover, market advances move in waves. Early leaders rally first, then the next wave, then the next, etc. Consider that the indices just broke from a 3.5 month lateral consolidation/trading range. That is a pretty solid basing process and this is the first move. It behooves us to play stocks that are in good position to move higher and start higher given the indices are just making the break.
As always, look for good risk/reward and don't chase extended stocks, particularly after two weeks of upside. If a good stock broke out and we didn't get it, just wait. It will give you a second chance, e.g. GRUB, SPLK. Be patient, let them setup, then move in when they move. Take gain at logical points. If a play doesn't work, cut it and move on; there are many out there working just fine. And always, take partial profits then let the rest run higher. In these kind of moves exercising that kind of patience often turns a good gain into a really great gain.
Have a great Valentine's Day!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 4893.84
4815 is the December 2014 market peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
The 50 day EMA at 4708
4631 is the October 2014 upside gap point
4610 is the September 2014 post-bear market high.
4566 is the lower gap point from late October
4563 and 4567 are the January lows
4547 is the December low
The 200 day SMA at 4501
4486 is the July 2014 high
4372 is the March 2014 high
The August low at 4321
4316 is the lower gap point from October 2014
4289 is the July 2000 recovery high
4277 is the March lower gap point
4246.55 is the January 2014 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 2096.99
2150 is the December 2012 up trendline
2094 is the all-time high
2087 is the lower trendline from 11/2012
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November
2076 is the all-time high from November
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 50 day EMA at 2041
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1991 is the July 2014 high
The 200 day SMA at 1984
1972 is the December 2014 low
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1883.57 is the early March high.
The December and January highs at 1848
The April 2014 low at 1814
1808 is the November and December 2013 twin peaks
1775.22 is the October prior all-time high
Dow: Closed at 18,019.35
18,104 is the December all-time high
17,991 is the early December interim
17,923 is the January 2015 lower high
The 50 day EMA at 17,628
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
The 200 day SMA at 17,127
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,736 is the penultimate all-time high from May 2014
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,341 is the May low
16,334 is the August 2014 low
16,257 is the January 2014 low
16,179 is the November 2013 peak.
15,855 is the October 2014 low
15,739 is the December 2013 low
February 10 - Tuesday
Wholesale Inventories, December (10:00): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.8% prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, December (10:00): 5.028M actual versus 4.847M prior (revised from 4.972M)
February 11 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 02/07 (7:00): -9.0% actual versus 1.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 02/07 (10:30): 4.868M actual versus 6.333M prior
Treasury Budget, January (14:00): -17.5B actual versus -$19.0B expected, -$10.3B prior
February 12 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 02/07 (8:30): 304K actual versus 285K expected, 279K prior (revised from 278K)
Continuing Claims, 1/31 (8:30): 2354K actual versus 2395K expected, 2405K prior (revised from 2400K)
Retail Sales, January (8:30): -0.8% actual versus -0.4% expected, -0.9% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, January (8:30): -0.9% actual versus -0.4% expected, -0.9% prior (revised from -1.0%)
Business Inventories, December (10:00): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 02/07 (10:30): -160 bcf actual versus -115 bcf prior
February 13 - Friday
Export Prices ex-ag., January (8:30): -1.0% actual versus -1.0% prior (revised from -1.2%)
Import Prices ex-oil, January (8:30): -0.7% actual versus -0.1% prior
Mich Sentiment, February (10:00): 93.6 actual versus 98.3 expected, 98.1 prior
February 17 - Tuesday
Empire Manufacturing, February (8:30): 9.0 expected, 9.9 prior
NAHB Housing Market , February (10:00): 58 expected, 57 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, December (16:00): $33.5B prior
February 18 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 02/14 (7:00): -9.0% prior
Housing Starts, January (8:30): 1070K expected, 1089K prior
Building Permits, January (8:30): 1065K expected, 1032K prior
PPI, January (8:30): -0.4% expected, -0.3% prior
Core PPI, January (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Industrial Productio, January (9:15): 0.4% expected, -0.1% prior
Capacity Utilization, January (9:15): 79.9% expected, 79.7% prior
FOMC Minutes, 1/28 (14:00)
February 19 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 02/14 (8:30): 295K expected, 304K prior
Continuing Claims, 02/7 (8:30): 2398K expected, 2354K prior
Philadelphia Fed, February (10:00): 9.8 expected, 6.3 prior
Leading Indicators, January (10:00): 0.3% expected, 0.5% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 02/14 (10:30): -160 bcf prior
Crude Inventories, 02/14 (11:00): 4.868M prior
End part 1 of 3
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