Sunday, October 15, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 10-14-17

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10/14/2017 Investment House Daily
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MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: DATA; PLAY; SOHU; VMW
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: BLRX; INFI
Stop alerts: None issued

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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- SOX posts a solid week while the large caps trend slightly higher, small
and midcaps finish up their tests.
- Bank earnings disappoint for the most part, but don't take the financials
out of the upside picture.
- Fed inflation 'mystery' even as inflation is all around it. The solution:
tax reform, healthcare reform to get true growth and stop distorting our
labor and investment markets, not to mention killing the middle class.
- Leaders still look very good and there are plenty of stocks set up to move
higher.
- Earnings season just getting started, still looks to be time to continue
higher.

The week was one that saw SOX post some nice gains but for the rest of the
market it was mostly a series of modest gains and even more modest losses
that kept the trends higher. Some days started softer, some started upside,
but none could really yield strong gains. In the end, the trends held but
the momentum in the large cap indices definitely slowed.

SP500 2.24, 0.09%
NASDAQ 14.29, 0.22%
DJ30 30.71, 0.13%
SP400 -0.05%
RUTX -0.17%
SOX -0.67%


Many leaders, however, continued showing excellent strength as smaller
biotechs and drugs were still great, software was strong again, some retail
posted great gains, chemicals started to rally. Banks started reporting
earnings, and while the stock action was not necessarily great, they left
themselves in position to return to the upside.

Thus, while the overall momentum of the move is slowing, there is still
plenty of leadership that is moving and that continues to set up to continue
moving. Last week we discussed how stocks rallying into earnings often
continue the move during the initial phase if the results are good. The
results were not all that great from the banks, but the stock indices still
held the trends with modest net gains.

Perhaps some good earnings this week can result in some renewed upside from
the rest of the market. Even then, you still have to view this as a market
that has rallied nicely and has lost some momentum -- at least for the large
cap indices. RUTX has put in a nice 2 week test of the 10 day EMA while
SP400 midcaps moved laterally in a tight range. They are set to continue
the move from the look of their consolidation, and that makes sense: they
led the last leg higher, started to test, and the large cap indices started
upside.

Now they are rested after the large caps made their move. Perhaps time for
some rotation back to the smaller caps while the large caps take a breather.
They certainly have some very nice play setups to aide in an upside move.


NEWS/ECONOMY

The news on the week saw mostly mixed data. Actual data was not so great
while sentiment data was again strong.

It also saw the Fed confused by the 'mystery' of low inflation. Well, here
is even more of a mystery: inflation is NOT low. As discussed earlier in
the week, inflation is showing up everywhere except in price increases.
There is 'hidden' inflation everywhere, most predominant in the portions,
amounts, reduced materials, etc. We have known for years that producers and
sellers felt they could not raise prices for fear of losing market share.
So, they kept prices more or less in line while 'raising' them by the other
means cited.

It seems incomprehensible that the Federal Reserve, stacked with ivory tower
economists, would not know this. But of COURSE they do. It is a fiction.
They know they have to get rates higher, and even if 'prices' remain low via
what is charged, they are going to hike.

I really don't have a problem with that; there is inflation in other areas
as discussed. The problem is, there needs to be tax reform to get the
economy really producing and moving versus the subterfuge of pricing. The
ACA needs to be removed to eliminate the strangulation of small businesses,
the distortion of our labor market into millions more sub-29 hour per week
hourly jobs, and to actually get healthcare back to where you can get a good
policy at a decent price.

I cannot understand the fight to preserve a system that has quadrupled and
more premium prices and done the same with deductibles. The statistic of
'coverage' is a red herring: you can be covered because you are forced to
buy a policy, but then have no money left over to go to the doctor and pay
your deductible. Yes there are subsidies for the poorest, but none of the
middle class, or more rightly put, the former middle class, can qualify for
subsidies.

So, you have coverage on paper but in reality these people are basically
uninsured. It reminds me of an old joke: a boy asks his father for help on
his homework. "what is the difference between in theory and in reality?"
the son asks. The father says, "go ask your mother if she would sleep with
a man for a million dollars" and come back and tell me what she said. The
son does, and his mother says "well, it would be wrong, but we could pay off
the house, pay for you kids' college, and have a retirement. If there were
no strings attached, yes I would." The son reports her answer and the
father says "now go ask your sister the same question." The sister responds
"yes I would" without hesitation or any of the other conditions the mother
placed on the deal. The son reports her answer to the father. The father
says "So, here is the difference: in theory we have $2 million; in reality
we live with two concubines."


THE MARKET

CHARTS

SOX: Market leader last week, breaking to a series of new post-2000 highs,
indeed 10 of the last 11 sessions. Solid gains Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,
and Friday. Okay, good moves and now up three weeks straight in a 45 degree
rise above the 10 day EMA. Perhaps a bit overbought near term as in this
series of rallies SOX typically rallies approximately 3 weeks before needing
a test.

RUTX: Excellent 2 week test back near the 10 day EMA after that mid-August
to early October surge. Amazing move, excellent test. Small caps could be
ready to move back upside next as the large cap indices take a breather.

SP400: The midcaps don't have the textbook test of the 10 day EMA a la
RUTX, but they also have rested, refusing to give up any ground in its 6
session tight lateral test. The 10 day EMA is now just below the
consolidation, and that often continues the move higher.

DJ30: Nice steady trend higher on the week with upside days and minor
downside. Climbing the 10 day EMA with good volume. Now up 5 weeks on this
move and that is extended for the Dow in these rallies. It is getting help
from the DJ20 transports as they broke to a new high Thursday. Gave it up
Friday, but right there.

SP500: Slight trend higher on the week as well, the 10 day EMA catching up
with the move. SP500 broke higher to start September, moving off the 50 day
MA, then tested in a lateral move through late September. Then a new break
higher and rally that took it through the 2007 upper trendline. Nice move,
now testing again. Not necessarily that overextended.

NASDAQ: Similar to SP500, NASDAQ came off the 50 day MA in late September
versus early that month, and it rallied into the prior Friday. Last week it
continued trending higher just over the 10 day EMA though at a much slower
pace. Trying to consolidate while holding the gains. Not sure it can, but
not as extended as DJ30.


Leadership

Software: Not as great a day Friday, but Thursday saw some good moves
upside from GLUU, CRM, VMW, MSFT and others. Looking at COUP as a new play
this week.

Biotechs/Drugs: Some great moves from INFI, IDRA, CNIT, BIIB. Decent
action from others, e.g. ARRY. Not all were great, e.g. BLRX, CNAT, but
there are some great setups we are looking at this weekend.

Semiconductors: A decent to very good week. AMD, AMAT, LRCX, ON, BRKS
showing very solid action. SMTC, SIMO, ADI, SLAB -- all solid. Lots of
strength.

China stocks: Mixed but started upside late week. They run hot and cold --
guess you call that volatile. SOHU exploded higher Friday and we banked
some strong gain. YY trended higher then broke higher Friday. BZUN finally
started upside again Friday. BIDU solid. CTRP looking decent but needs
more volume. BABA is testing the 20 day EMA on stronger volume. WUBA is
interesting.

Retail: Some great moves, e.g. TGT working well for us, WMT the cream of
the class. KORS trying to break out from a consolidation. HD in a nice 10
day EMA test. Not all are great: COST languishing after gapping lower.
JWN, M, DDS down. WSM gapped lower on results but is posting a nice
rebound.

FAANG: Decent just not inspired -- in most cases. FB up to the early
September top of its 3 month lateral range. AMZN breaking higher late week;
we will see if we can get in early week on a test. AAPL still below the 50
day MA. NFLX tested the 10 day EMA, trying to break higher again ahead of
earnings. GOOG posted a great week for us, rallying up the 10 day EMA.


Miscellaneous: Chemicals were great, e.g. CF, AGU. SQ continues a strong
move. NAK surged off the 200 day SMA.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +30.71 points (+0.13%) to close at 22871.72

Nasdaq
Stats: +14.29 points (+0.22%) to close at 6605.80
Volume: 1.76B (-12.44%)

Up Volume: 888.95M (-32.3M)
Down Volume: 831M (-219M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.08 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.38 to 1

New Highs: 237 (+14)
New Lows: 47 (+6)

S&P
Stats: +2.24 points (+0.09%) to close at 2553.17
NYSE Volume: 768M (-2.51%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.46 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.11 to 1

New Highs: 264 (+42)
New Lows: 30 (-2)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.61; -0.30
VXN: 13.97; -0.36
VXO: 7.57; -0.48

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; -0.20


Bulls and Bears: Whoa, a big spike in bulls continues, moving over the 60
level with bears dropping like a rock. Getting very bullish, indeed too
bullish.

Bulls: 60.4 versus 57.5

Bears: 15.1 versus 17.0

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.


Bulls: 60.4 versus 57.5
57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1
versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0
versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00
versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9
versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7
versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2
versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6
versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 15.1 versus 17.0
17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2 versus 19.1 versus 19.1 versus 18.3
versus 18.1 versus 17.0 versus 16.2 versus 16.5 versus 16.7 versus 18.6
versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1
versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3
versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5
versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3
versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3
versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.275% versus 2.321%. Bonds rallied all week on the economic data
and the belief the Fed may not be able to hike as it wants. TLT tested the
200 day SMA the prior week and rallied right back up to the 50 day MA as of
Friday.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.321%
versus 2.345% versus 2.345% versus 2.361% versus 2.348% versus 2.327% versus
2.326% versus 2.341% versus 2.339% versus 2.312% versus 2.307% versus 2.236%
versus 2.222% versus 2.253% versus 2.276% versus 2.273% versus 2.246% versus
2.234% versus 2.201% versus 2.186% versus 2.19% versus 2.167% versus 2.134%
versus 2.042% versus 2.105% versus 2.072% versus 2.166% versus 2.210% versus
2.136% versus 2.129% versus 2.175% versus 2.169% versus 2.189% versus 2.217%
versus 2.183% versus 2.197% versus 2.185%


EUR/USD: 1.1823 versus 1.1834. Euro recovered back to test the 50 day MA
after breaching it the last week of September.

Historical: 1.1834 versus 1.18662 versus 1.1813 versus 1.17460 versus
1.17352 versus 1.17100 versus 1.1754 versus 1.17676 versus 1.17315 versus
1.1812 versus 1.17817 versus 1.1746 versus 1.17852 versus 1.18540 versus
1.19476 versus 1.19420 versus 1.19420 versus 1.19954 versus 1.19436 versus
1.1918 versus 1.1874 versus 1.19706 versus 1.19551 versus 1.20379 versus
1.2025 versus 1.19258 versus 1.19143 versus 1.18621 versus 1.19131 versus
1.18938 versus 1.19731 versus 1.19678 versus 1.19212 versus 1.18 versus
1.17516 versus 1.1813 versus 1.17595 versus 1.17107 versus 1.17812 versus
1.17445 versus 1.17751 versus 1.18216 versus 1.17652 versus 1.17596 versus
1.17619 versus 1.17975 versus 1.1774 versus 1.18718 versus 1.18457 versus
1.18072 versus 1.18281 versus 1.18293 versus 1.1683 versus 1.17419 versus
1.1646 versus 1.1637 versus 1.16640 versus 1.16271 versus 1.15280 versus
1.15549 versus 1.14735


USD/JPY: 111.852 versus 112.25. Dollar faded toward the 200 day SMA all
week as the data suggests the Fed might not be so tough as it says it will
be.

Historical: 112.25 versus 112.413 versus 112.41 versus 112.700 versus
112.653 versus 112.818 versus 112.79 versus 112.667 versus 112.716 versus
112.442 versus 112.86 versus 112.289 versus 111.649 versus 1.12125 versus
111.995 versus 112.454 versus 111.559 versus 111.435 versus 110.846 versus
110.01 versus 110.62 versus 110.216 versus 109.434 versus 107.847 versus
108.444 versus 109.132 versus 108.747 versus 110.254 versus 110.049 versus
110.289 versus 109.652 versus 108.04 versus 109.160 versus 109.573 versus
109.195 versus 109.648 versus 109.173 versus 109.205 versus 109.333 versus
109.842 versus 110.6621 versus 109.927 versus 109.183 versus 109.177 versus
110.03 versus 109.09 versus 110.09 versus 110.757 versus 110.689 versus
109.963 versus 110.717 versus 110.368 versus 110.28 versus 110.704 versus
111.07 versus 111.166 versus 111.897 versus 111.176


Oil: 51.45, +0.85. Oil held the 200 day SMA test and rebounded Tuesday and
again Friday. Still looks as if this higher low could break it out of its
range.


Gold: 1304.60, +8.10. Gold rallied on the week and then broke back up
through the 50 day MA on Friday. It too doubts the Fed.


MONDAY

Earnings are taking over the headlines as the banks started the show and now
the floodgates open. The initial response was not great as the banks
faded -- for the most part. The question is whether the market has room for
more upside on some good earnings after the gains in DJ30, SOX and to a
lesser extent, NASDAQ and SP500.

As noted before the real question is whether RUTX and SP400, after their
tests, are ready to take up leadership again and move back upside, getting
money pushed their way, as the large cap indices take a break after their
move up that started as RUTX and SP400 started to take a breather.

We think that could be the case. There are plenty of setups in the group,
and they could provide another good leg higher over the next couple of weeks
even if the market decides to cap out the move at that point. That is what
I discussed last week: the continued rally at the first weeks of earnings
that then stalls. With the patterns we see there are still very good setups
to play that move and still make money before a stall.

Thus, we still believe the move could top out once the earnings saturation
comes, typically 2 or so weeks in once the big names start announcing, but
there are also great setups to play during that time as well as letting
positions work and banking gain as it comes. We did a lot of that last
week, particularly with the October expiration coming up this week.

Therefore, we intend to play good moves upside because there are so many
good stocks making good moves and in prime position to continue or start a
move. Yes, as noted last week some can get left at the altar when the move
runs out of steam, but the scenario we are playing allows for some more
upside before that occurs.

Have a great weekend!



SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6605.80

Resistance:
More new highs

Support:
6477 is the September intraday high
6461 is the July 2017 prior all-time high
6450 is the early September high
The 50 day EMA at 6433
The 2016 trendline at 6366
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 6079
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point


S&P 500: Closed at 2553.17

Resistance:
New highs again

Support:
2519 is the upper channel line from the March 2009 uptrend channel
The 50 day EMA at 2498
2491 is the August all-time high
2480 the late August and early August highs
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2409 is the July 2017 closing low
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
The 200 day SMA at 2403
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 22,871.72

Resistance:

Support:
The 10 day EMA at 22,740
22,420 is the September high
The 50 day EMA at 22,241
22,179 is the August 2017 all-time high
22,086 is the mid-August lower high
21,681is the July prior all-time high
21,638 is the July 2017 closing high
21,529 is the June 2017 high
The 200 day SMA at 21,170
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
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