Saturday, July 21, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-21-2018

* * * *
7/21/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: ISRG
Entry alerts: FOSL; ROST
Trailing stops: NVDA
Stop alerts: JD

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- Expiration 'fireworks' not about the market, but about the President.
- Market initially overcomes Trump on China trade, Trump on the Fed, but
slides on his lawyer's tape discussing a Playboy model payoff.
- High to low action, but a very quiet expiration.
- Large cap indices set up to move higher and with copious amounts of
earnings results coming, the will have the ammo if they want to move.
- Finding plays not just ahead of earnings is a bit challenging right now,
but some non-tech areas do look promising for the first time in a long time.

Stocks started mixed, but with the uptrend they found bids and rallied
positive, cruising into midmorning.

This despite Trump telling Joe Kernen China was a currency manipulator,
undermining the gains in the US. As a result, Trump stated he was 'ready to
go' on $500B of tariffs that would cover all Chinese goods.

Trump also had a beef with the Fed, stating Powell was a good man, but
raising rates at this juncture when the US was making good progress was only
driving up the dollar and making debt service costlier.

Oh my did the media go berserk. I had to change the channel away from CNBC
even sooner than usual, moving over to a fairly liberal Bloomberg that was,
by comparison, much tamer, much more attached to reality than the CNBC
non-Kernen anchors. The female CNBC 'news anchor' was beside herself
calling the President's positions 'crazy,' also noting that the President
wanted to CONTROL other agencies, giving the attorney general as an example.
Well, of all the nerve, the President wanting to control an agency that is
under the Executive Branch, i.e. an agency CONTROLLED by the President. The
result of our schools forgoing teaching our children what the Constitution
actually says even with respect to the very basic, three-branch governmental
system, is showing. It was so bad that even some of the liberal guests
(e.g. Jared Bernstein, former VP Biden's economic advisor) had to chime in
and say the President's comments were just not that bad.

I know, I know, this sounds like a personal problem, but it is really a
problem for everyone. News reporting that is passing itself off as unbiased
but always taking the same side on every story, pursuing only one line of
questioning. Failure of our education system to instill in our children the
most basic understanding of why we are the country we are and how we formed
and what truths we hold dear. Thus, we end up electing a socialist in New
York who wants the federal government to oust private ownership of companies
in favor of government control. A person who does not understand that the
unemployment rate does not move lower because someone has two jobs instead
of one. We are creating incredibly ignorant young adults, and equally
ignorant young adults are electing them to office. My son fumes when I say
such things, but he is well-versed in US history and economic history and is
in the incredibly small minority of his peers who understand economic cause
and effect.

The point: the market didn't care about Trump's tweets. China is
manipulating its currency lower, despite the condition and its pledge upon
joining the WTO that it would not, and it appears investors are taking this
as a sign China is losing the trade war, a war that really has not yet
started, that Trump has not yet begun to fight.

But, I digress.

Then at midmorning, another story hit. Was it the Fed Chair resigning after
Trump's tweets? No. A conflict erupting in the South China Sea? No. A
political assassination by the Russians and no doubt personally ordered by
Putin? No. Bill Clinton grope and sexually harass another woman? No! The
NYT reported TRUMP, having paid a Playboy model claiming to have had an
affair with Trump, was the one abusing women. Apparently there is a tape
that Trump's lawyer made in a discussion between Cohen and Trump where this
was discussed, a tape that was part of the items picked up in the FBI's raid
of Cohen's office. How this is not attorney-client privilege and EVER got
out from the wholly unbiased, apolitical, justice-seeking, of highest
probity FBI is a complete mystery. As you can see, once again, the laws of
the US are no longer applied equally.

Stocks peaked for the day on this news and started a gradual downtrend into
the Friday close.

SP500 -2.66, -0.09%
NASDAQ -5.10, -0.07%
DJ30 -6.38, -0.03%
SP400 -0.53%
RUTX -0.26%
SOX -0.49%
NASDAQ 100 -0.03%

VOLUME: NYSE +12%, NASDAQ -4%. NYSE trade moved above average, NASDAQ
remained below average and actually fell. Expiration Friday so higher
volume on NYSE was nothing special. Lower volume on NASDAQ was rather
surprising.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.1:1. Rather boring expiration.

All of the July expiration 'fireworks' had nothing to do with stocks.
Charlie 'the blabbermouth' Gasparino on FoxBusiness, panting and drooling
with excitement, openly mused this was perhaps just a teaser.

Perhaps, but this is nothing new for Trump, is it? Same kind of allegations
(or more) during the campaign. And it mattered . . . not. Everyone knew
Trump was no Boy Scout. Those that voted for him were tired of the same
old, same old, and knew Trump was not a best buddy. I heard one woman say
he was a pig, but she was not voting for pastor but for someone who would
change the business as usual DC crapola. Thus, I would be surprised if this
has ANY impact on Trump over a week from now. His policies are popular with
his voters and with many independents, and they seem to realize the flaws,
the 'pig-like' actions are part of the package. They don't care, they voted
to put a new sheriff into DC town, someone like Wyatt Earp to be hard-nosed
and clean things up.

I don't mean to make this sound like some kind of gushing over Trump. It is
not. I am distilling what I have heard from several republican friends
about their support for Trump even if these kind of things are revealed.
Hey, the democrats still loved Bill Clinton for doing the same or worse, so
I can at least understand the sentiment.

The question for us is whether this means much other than a fade from the
highs on one expiration Friday. Doubt it. If tape after tape after tape
emerges painting Trump as a beast, then yes it has impact. Other than that,
the Friday fade back to flat by the indices is likely about all those Trump
haters will get out of this, at least in terms of the market action.

So, after that somewhat digression I have to say that the market action
Friday, while disappointing, was not a reversal. It was a damn boring
session, but not a reversal. Sometimes boring can be good as when stocks or
indices are working on bases. The quiet lets them go about their business,
and then things get noisy when the post a breakout move.

Of course the action Friday left the indices unchanged. After good moves
Thursday, promising moves toward the prior highs, SP400 and RUTX faded, RUTX
part of the move, SP400 all of its move. Not reversals, but leaving SP400
and RUTX still below the key prior peaks.

NASDAQ, SP500 and DJ30 lost some ground but that is fine. They all rallied
higher the past two weeks or more and needed a break. They are taking that
break with very modest fades. SP500 and DJ30 look exceptionally good on
this test, and given the patterns we anticipate a turn back upside in the
not too distant future.

Earnings season is here with dozens reporting next week. We are still
looking at playing some pre-earnings moves, but the primary interest for new
positions is the counterpunching after the earnings release and the stock
shows its break. These results could help break DJ30 and SP500 back to
their upside moves. BA, UTX are setting up well and announces results, an
important industrial stock. CELG announces and it has also put in a good
pattern as have many large biotechs. AMZN, AMGN, INTC announce Thursday.
Plenty of important earnings are ahead this week, earnings that could power
the large cap indices higher.



THE MARKET


CHARTS

DJ30: The Dow is in a 2-day fade after almost 3 weeks upside that
approached but didn't really threaten the early June peak. The banks and
some industrials perked up the past week, fading back to end the week,
setting up the same as the Dow. DJ30 looks set up very well to continue
higher, and some earnings this week could be the driver.

SP500: SP500 broke through the June and March highs and is now testing as
well, fading Thursday and Friday, waiting for the 10 day EMA to catch up.
Set up well, waiting on earnings.

NASDAQ: Rallied to a new high early week then slid laterally into Friday.
NASDAQ big names continue to push upside. The big change was the demise of
NFLX and its near-term trend. Gapped lower on earnings, recovered off the
lows but then stalled out. Other big names are in modest pullbacks similar
to DJ30 stocks, i.e. fading Thursday and Friday to test near support. MSFT
reported strong results, INTC is set to release results in the coming week.
NASDAQ continues in its uptrend.

SP400: Showed promise Thursday with a break higher to match the early July
peak. Faded Friday. Made a shallow test after the prior July high, is
rebounding as it needed to do, but it has not made the new breakout yet.
Critical for SP400 to make that move.

RUTX: As noted Thursday, RUTX' pattern is not as solid as SP400 with the
twin peaks. It tested the 20 day EMA off that second peak and has rebounded
Tuesday to Thursday, putting in a strong move Thursday. Friday it stalled,
fading just modestly. RUTX may bounce around here for a few sessions, but
it needs to make the breakout.

SOX: Trying to make a move off the 200 day SMA stick, SOX moved higher but
struggled after reaching the 50 day SMA. Looks as if it will put in a
higher low over the 50 day EMA and continue the break higher. INTC's
earnings will have something to do with that.


LEADERSHIP

FAANG: NFLX changed character on the week with its earnings miss. FB
continued its slow climb up the 10 day EMA. It announces results this week.
AMZN rallied to a new high, faded late week but is in very good position as
are many of the big name market leaders. GOOG is the same, surging early in
the week then fading to test the 10 day EMA. Very good positioning. AAPL
remains the forgotten stock of the group, in a 2 week tight lateral range.

Software: Some members of the group struggled, e.g. VMW, FFIV. Others
added to moves though slowed late week: DATA, ADBE; VRSN, TTWO. MSFT
announced solid results, gapped higher, faded much of the move. Good
earnings setting the stage.

Financial: Banks picked it back up Friday after a Thursday loss. JPM, BAC
up on strong volume. C looks good. V and MA put up modest Friday numbers
but look very good with V heading into earnings the coming week.

Industrials: BA tested more, setting up well ahead of earnings. UTX is
putting in an excellent test ahead of its results. HON exploded higher
Friday on huge trade with excellent earnings. TEX in a weeklong test back
to the 200 day SMA.

Energy: Down week for the group with oil falling as well. Many are testing
key support after 1 to 2 weeks of testing. APC ended at the 50 day MA, a
support it has used often. EOG showing a doji over the 50 day MA's, ESV at
that level as well. GPOR testing the 200 day. DO didn't make it; Friday it
broke sharply lower below the 50 day MA.

Drugs/Biotechs: MYGN broke higher again on the week. CELG, AMGN look very
good in pullbacks testing moves, earnings ahead this week. AGN solid in a
200 day SMA test. JNJ gapped upside Tuesday, could not hold and filled the
gap back at the 50 day MA. It could make its move upside as well.

Retail: Good week, sloppy finish Friday. ROST, TJX, FOSL all look good,
struggled Friday. RH, solid looking, needs to bounce. M broke higher
nicely, paused Friday.

Chips: As with many other areas, some very good setups heading into
earnings, e.g. TXN, SLAB. TSM powered higher to the 200 day SMA on its
earnings. Others were hit -- the story of the group, i.e. very bifurcated.
QRVO sold hard, SWKS dumped on its results.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: -6.38 points (-0.03%) to close at 25058.12

Nasdaq
Stats: -5.10 points (-0.07%) to close at 7820.20
Volume: 1.78B (-4.3%)

Up Volume: 721.95M (-111.22M)
Down Volume: 1.03B (+30M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.11 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.17 to 1

New Highs: 130 (+12)
New Lows: 39 (-7)

S&P
Stats: -2.66 points (-0.09%) to close at 2801.83
NYSE Volume: 816.81M (+11.48%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.13 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.49 to 1

New Highs: 90 (+9)
New Lows: 32 (-8)


SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.86; -0.01
VXN: 17.11; -0.24
VXO: 11.41; +0.05

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.98; +0.08

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls popped back up like a cork from 47.1 after the rise and drop. Got
overdone to the downside as everyone turned negative just as the market
bounced. Now is it too high? Not really. It was over 60 recently; a bit of
room but not much.

Bulls: 55.3 versus 52.4

Bears: 18.5 versus 18.5

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 55.3 versus 52.4
52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0
versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6
versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1
versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00 versus 64.7 versus 66.7
versus 64.4 versus 61.9 versus 64.1 versus 64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5
versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4
versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1

Bears: 18.5 versus 18.5
18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2
versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6
versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5
versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8
versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1
versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.895% versus 2.838%. Yields surged as bonds crashed. Trump
lamented the Fed's rate hikes and to many that only cemented another hike in
September as the Fed would have to show its 'independence.' Certainly
looked as if the market was heading that way.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 22.838%
versus 2.88% versus 2.86% versus 2.856% versus 2.829% versus 2.849% versus
2.853% versus 2.867% versus 2.867% versus 2.824% versus 2.835% versus 2.833%
versus 2.871% versus 2.86% versus 2.84% versus 2.833% versus 2.877% versus
2.882% versus 2.895% versus 2.899% versus 2.937% versus 2.889% versus 2.915%
versus 2.922% versus 2.933% versus 2.977% versus 2.963% versus 2.952% versus
2.948% versus 2.928% versus 2.974% versus 2.935% versus 2.944% versus 2.902%
versus 2.86% versus 2.857% versus 2.79% versus 2.931% versus 2.992% versus
2.982% versus 3.063% versus 3.056% versus 3.06% versus 3.123% versus 3.096%
versus 3.069%


EUR/USD: 1.17214 versus 1.1651. Euro jumped back up on the Trump comments.

Historical: 1.1651 versus 1.16514 versus 1.16603 versus 1.1709 versus 1.1685
versus 1.16608 versus 1.1672 versus 1.17288 versus 1.17578 versus 1.17439
versus 1.1689 versus 1.1665 versus 1.16388 versus 1.1638 versus 1.15634
versus 1.15602 versus 1.16517 versus 1.17031 versus 1.16572 versus 1.16072
versus 1.15762 versus 1.1586 versus 1.15746 versus 1.2624 versus 1.16245
versus 1.15678 versus 1.17973 versus 1.17454 versus 1.17761 versus 1.17737
versus 1.17987 versus 1.1774 versus 1.1762 versus 1.1697 versus 1.166 versus
1.16993 versus 1.16643 versus 1.15446 versus 1.17148 versus 1.17096 versus
1.17022 versus 1.17826 versus 1.1786 versus 1.17714 versus 1.1802 versus
1.1811 versus 1.18272 versus 1.19358 versus 1.19411 versus 1.1913 versus
1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus 1.19619 versus 1.1983 versus
1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus 1.21291 versus 1.21788 versus
1.2163 versus 1.22232


USD/JPY: 111.451 versus 112.732. Dollar dropped hard against the yen as
well.

Historical: 112.732 versus 112.783 versus 112.896 versus 112.337 versus
112.631 versus 112.093 versus 110.911 versus 110.973 versus 110.474 versus
110.666 versus 110.40 versus 110.854 versus 110.687 versus 110.523 versus
110.223 versus 110.097 versus 109.678 versus 109.980 versus 109.895 versus
110.376 versus 110.03 versus 109.783 versus 110.668 versus 110.578 versus
110.247 versus 110.381 versus 110.314 versus 109.466 versus 109.705 versus
110.164 versus 109.878 versus 109.90 versus 109.53 versus 108.767


Oil: 68.26, +0.51. A tough prior week, then oil bounced back to the 50 day
MA into Friday. Still not a great pattern.


Gold: 1231.10, +7.10. With all the turmoil, gold shot higher. That still
leaves it in the downtrend, rebounding but just toward the 10 day EMA.


MONDAY

Large cap indices set up well. Small and midcaps near the old highs in a
very important test of those. Earnings are queued up, ready to drive the
action.

Will the earnings provide a catalyst? Most are good with good guidance.
There are some guidance misses and warnings, however, and some analysts are
talking around this being the near term peak in results. No doubt weak
guidance from big names dampens enthusiasm.

As discussed Thursday, this earnings season we are a bit reluctant to ride
too many through earnings or take on new positions with the intention of
holding then through the results. Typically that is not our favorite play
and with some guidance issues it becomes even less so. Picking good entries
after earnings is the preferred method as the skeletons are out of the
closet. Banks are an example. JNJ has filled the earnings gap higher.
Looking for those as vehicles to use when SP500, DJ30 and NASDAQ bounce from
these nice little tests.

Have a great weekend!

End part 1
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Sunday, July 15, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-14-18

* * * *
7/14/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: AMZN
Entry alerts: RH
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks turn a bit pensive ahead of a big earnings week.
- NFLX downgrade bandwagon getting pretty full, helping spook overall bids.
- President says US/UK strike an 'ambitious' trade deal
- President calls EU a foe economically, along with Russia, China.
- NASDAQ, RUTX, SP400 testing back from the highs. How they react off this
test is obviously key.
- Don't forget SP500, DJ30: they are getting some money and will it be at
the detriment of other indices?

After good breakouts Thursday with NASDAQ and NASDAQ moving to new highs and
SP500 clearing important resistance, stocks were pensive Friday. NFLX was
downgraded on valuation more than once just ahead of its Monday earnings
because . . . it could actually miss expectations. Wow, a stock could
actually miss earnings expectations? Duh. Yet, they act as if it is an
impossibility.

Of course it is not. Just ask the banks announcing on Friday. C missed the
top line, WFC missed the top and bottom line. Looks as if they are going to
have to get over getting free money from the Fed and then buying bonds for a
guaranteed return. WFC might actually have to start making loans again and
not just come on CNBC and falsely claim the banks are open for business to
lend to small businesses. That was the biggest farce ever. You would go to
WFC and you would be directed to a SBA loan; no way WFC was touching that --
it had risk attached to it. Now, with the Fed not so generous with the free
money, banks have to make money the old fashioned way, e.g. loans, jacking
up fees, etc.

Anyway, NFLX was hit hard, falling from the new closing high hit early week.
NFLX' action helped stymie NASDAQ's upside move, but didn't kill it.

Instead, a week of heavy earnings for NASDAQ is ahead, and it very much
looked as if the downgrades and bank earnings misses had bids pulling back
Friday after some good moves higher earlier week.

Not across the board of course. AMZN continued its new move while FB and
GOOG added more upside. Overall, however, Friday saw the action cool as the
indices turned in mixed sessions.

SP500 3.02, 0.11%
NASDAQ 2.06, 0.03%
DJ30 94.52, 0.38%
SP400 -0.02%
RUTX -0.19%
SOX -0.40%

VOLUME: NYSE -7%, NASDAQ -10%. Volume remained low and below average on
NYSE, an issue for the move higher. That is, however, no change from what
it has shown. NASDAQ trade faded after a good Thursday on that breakout.
Volume is still quite low overall after showing some good volume on the move
higher through late June.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -1.03:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1.

Interestingly, the week did see some changes but also more of the same. As
noted, SP500 broke through important resistance while NASDAQ moved to a new
all-time high. DJ30 showed a bit more life as well as the large cap NYSE
finally blipped a pulse.

At the same time, RUTX and SP400, clear leaders to this point, finished the
week a bit weaker, testing the 10 day EMA Wednesday through Friday. Thus
far normal tests for leading indices though you have to keep an eye on RUTX
as it ran into the June high with a head of steam then faded. Of course it
also rallied 6 of 7 sessions to get back up to that level, so a test of near
support is nothing in itself surprising. It is just one to watch in the
week ahead as earnings start to come out.


NEWS/ECONOMY

Friday the news was relative light. The President's trip to the UK yielded
news that the type of Brexit, hard or otherwise, would not inhibit new trade
agreements between the US and UK. Thus, an 'ambitious trade deal' was
proclaimed. How ambitious remains to be seen as the UK cannot even figure
out what it wants to do with Brexit right now.

After the UK meetings the President was reported to have called the EU an
enemy. Well, he said the EU is a foe for what it does to the US in trade.
He also said Russia is a foe and that China is an economic foe. That is
true, but not many are yet accustomed to the President's direct style of
calling things as he sees them as part of his preparation for negotiations.
The horror of it all. Right. It may not be what people are used to, i.e.
the 'dignified diplomacy' of the past, but it is not designed to be. It is
designed to throw the 'foe' off balance and make it difficult to anticipate
the next step. It is a kind of chaos style but with very definite methods
and goals.

Thus, when I hear this I just watch and listen with interest because the old
dignified diplomacy got us nothing. No, that is not correct. It got us
poor deals for the US, and attempts to alter those deals have failed. These
tactics appear to be somewhat successful. At the NATO summit, for example,
Trump obtained agreement on issues the prior President had asked for but got
nothing in return. We will see if there is further success.

The big story for the week, however, is earnings. That will drive much of
the action with NFLX reporting Monday after the close to establish the pace.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

NASDAQ: New high Thursday, then flat Friday as NFLX sold and the bids
faded. Nonetheless, a solid indication. The next key move is how NASDAQ
reacts to that new high, i.e. can it hold and resume or whether it reverses.
NASDAQ took a break to test the 10 day EMA just before the break higher; it
is rested to make the move and thus it should hold if it is for real.

SP500: Nice break higher Thursday as well, then Friday a modest rise on no
volume an important move upside and now this week with the earnings we see
if this important move from midrange off the January high holds and then
continues.

DJ30: Also came to life last week, indeed the past two weeks, but the Dow
is still well off the June peak that itself was well off the January peak.
About midrange for the trading range with a lot of work ahead of it.

SP400: Early June SP400 matched the January all-time high. SP400 faded to
the 50 day MA to end June and rallied back upside. SP400 broke to a new
all-time high at the first of the week. It then faded back to the 10 day
EMA to tend the week. This is the lick log for SP400, i.e. if it can hold
this shallow test of the break higher and make good on that new all-time
high.

RUTX: RUTX shows very similar action to SP400. They both led the move
higher so acting in tandem is not surprising. RUTX touched the prior high
from June Monday then faded to the 10 day EMA Thursday and Friday. As with
SP400, a test makes sense, but it has to hold near support and then make a
new move higher.

SOX: Still trending up the 200 day SMA but struggling to make serious
headway. SOX rallied off the 200 day the prior week through Tuesday last
week. Then it had issues, gapping back below the 50 day MA's it cleared
Tuesday. Higher low, used the 200 day as support, now has to hold and rally
again. AVGO upset things as it dove on the CA acquisition announcement, but
it is not the only cause. Some chips look great, some do not.


LEADERSHIP

FAANG: AMZN had the big week, up 4 of 5 sessions. FB put in a series of
new highs but is not exploding higher. NFLX had the downgrades Friday that
punished it ahead of Monday earnings. It is hanging in near the 20 day EMA.
AAPL broke upside but then moved laterally. GOOG, as with AMZN, enjoyed a
big move higher, clearing the June peak.

Software/Cloud: MSFT powered to a new high two sessions straight. DATA was
strong all week. ATVI surged to a new high, paused Friday. TTWO broke to a
higher recovery high as well. VRSN moved to a new high. Some very solid
moves. VMW still trying to hold near support and bounce. NTNX moved up to
the 50 day EMA and is trying to hold that move.

Chips: Some of the recent leaders took Friday off, e.g. TXN, NVDA, AMD.
AVGO still struggled after its huge Thursday gap lower.

Financial: V enjoyed a big week to a new high though was off a bit Friday.
Banks still struggle whether JPM or C or WFC.

Drugs/Biotechs: Still on the edge of some good moves by the big names, e.g.
AGN, GILD. CELG started a move, MYGN gapped and we are waiting for it to
set up a bit better. JNJ flopped to the 10 day EMA but may set up off that
test.

Energy/Oil: The setups remain good but these stocks also go back and forth
in decent patterns. APC testing the 20 day. DO looks as if it can break
higher. EOG remains in great shape to move. Some good looks looking for a
good move.

Industrials/Machinery: Improving. UTX broke higher Thursday and Friday.
MTW looks very interesting and HON looks to be moving up on volume. On the
other hand, DE flopped.

MISC: SQ, PYPL down Friday but still look good. IQ continues looking very
good. ULTA is breaking higher.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +94.52 points (+0.38%) to close at 25019.41

Nasdaq
Stats: +2.06 points (+0.03%) to close at 7825.98
Volume: 1.73B (-10.36%)

Up Volume: 733.51M (-646.49M)
Down Volume: 959.55M (+434.88M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.22 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.43 to 1

New Highs: 101 (-10)
New Lows: 50 (-5)

S&P
Stats: +3.02 points (+0.11%) to close at 2801.31
NYSE Volume: 632.726M (-7.08%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.03 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.61 to 1

New Highs: 99 (+5)
New Lows: 31 (-9)


SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.18; -0.40
VXN: 16.88; -0.24
VXO: 11.06; -0.38

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.98; +0.06

Bulls and Bears:

After the plummet in bulls they post an impressive 5.3 point rally. As soon
as they were falling the market rallied. How quickly did those bulls
return? Fast. A bit worrisome as it indicates some froth in the move.
Bears remained stagnant.

Bulls: 52.4 versus 47.1

Bears: 18.5 versus 18.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 52.4 versus 47.1
47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1
versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2
versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5
versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00 versus 64.7 versus 66.7 versus 64.4
versus 61.9 versus 64.1 versus 64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5
versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5
versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1
versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0
versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00
versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9
versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5

Bears: 18.5 versus 18.6
18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2
versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8
versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4
versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7
versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1
versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2
versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.829% versus 2.849%. TLT broke over the 200 day SMA on the week
and advanced Friday. Bond yields drop, bonds rally, yield curve continues
to be flat.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.829%
versus 2.849% versus 2.853% versus 2.867% versus 2.867% versus 2.824% versus
2.835% versus 2.833% versus 2.871% versus 2.86% versus 2.84% versus 2.833%
versus 2.877% versus 2.882% versus 2.895% versus 2.899% versus 2.937% versus
2.889% versus 2.915% versus 2.922% versus 2.933% versus 2.977% versus 2.963%
versus 2.952% versus 2.948% versus 2.928% versus 2.974% versus 2.935% versus
2.944% versus 2.902% versus 2.86% versus 2.857% versus 2.79% versus 2.931%
versus 2.992% versus 2.982% versus 3.063% versus 3.056% versus 3.06% versus
3.123% versus 3.096% versus 3.069%


EUR/USD: 1.1685 versus 1.16608. Euro faded on the week but showed some
strength Friday. Still working in a 5 week lateral range. Looks to be in a
bottoming process over the past 8 weeks.

Historical: 1.16608 versus 1.1672 versus 1.17288 versus 1.17578 versus
1.17439 versus 1.1689 versus 1.1665 versus 1.16388 versus 1.1638 versus
1.15634 versus 1.15602 versus 1.16517 versus 1.17031 versus 1.16572 versus
1.16072 versus 1.15762 versus 1.1586 versus 1.15746 versus 1.2624 versus
1.16245 versus 1.15678 versus 1.17973 versus 1.17454 versus 1.17761 versus
1.17737 versus 1.17987 versus 1.1774 versus 1.1762 versus 1.1697 versus
1.166 versus 1.16993 versus 1.16643 versus 1.15446 versus 1.17148 versus
1.17096 versus 1.17022 versus 1.17826 versus 1.1786 versus 1.17714 versus
1.1802 versus 1.1811 versus 1.18272 versus 1.19358 versus 1.19411 versus
1.1913 versus 1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus 1.19619 versus
1.1983 versus 1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus 1.21291 versus
1.21788 versus 1.2163 versus 1.22232


USD/JPY: 112.337 versus 112.631. Faded a bit to end the week after a surge
Monday to Thursday that broke the dollar out of a 7 week lateral move.

Historical: 112.631 versus 112.093 versus 110.911 versus 110.973 versus
110.474 versus 110.666 versus 110.40 versus 110.854 versus 110.687 versus
110.523 versus 110.223 versus 110.097 versus 109.678 versus 109.980 versus
109.895 versus 110.376 versus 110.03 versus 109.783 versus 110.668 versus
110.578 versus 110.247 versus 110.381 versus 110.314 versus 109.466 versus
109.705 versus 110.164 versus 109.878 versus 109.90 versus 109.53 versus
108.767


Oil: 71.01, +0.68. After breaking to a higher high to end June, oil tested
laterally but starting Wednesday was dropped hard to the 50 day MA.


Gold: 1241.20, -5.40. Putting in a double bottom over the past two weeks
with MACD rising. Gold could be prepping a new upside attempt.


MONDAY

Earnings should be the driving story on the week with NFLX starting it off
Monday afternoon. As noted, NFLX was rattled in price because others on
Friday joined UBS' Thursday call that NFLX might miss its earnings if it
does not get the overseas subscriptions. Yes, and if it is cloudy the sun
won't likely show for the day. Earnings are always hit or miss; even if
earnings are beaten a stock can still decline. It could be, and I said so
Thursday and Friday, that there are those attempting to get NFLX lower ahead
of earnings with the specific notion of moving in on the dip. Fake news?
That would be the case, but hard to prove this kind of gamesmanship.

In any event, we will watch NFLX and see if we can pick up a few more
positions at a good price. Very aggressive given earnings, but NFLX gapped
upside on its April earnings. Even though it peaked on that day, that still
provides a nice gain.

On the week, earnings will flow, the yield curve will remain flat, and trade
issues are still out there with China 'going high' while the US 'goes low.'
Give me a break, China. That didn't work in the 2016 elections; think it
will work for you? And in what way?

Earnings are key, but they will just provide the impetus for NASDAQ, SP400,
and RUTX that are testing back after reaching prior or new highs. How they
hold and rebound -- or not -- tells the story of these attempts at prior
highs. They tested them, backed off, and now holding near support,
regrouping. The next moves will tell the tale for them.

At the same time, watch SP500 and DJ30. Some money is moving their way.
Will it continue moving in even if the growth areas break higher off their
tests? Or, will money leave the growth areas and move to the large cap NYSE
stocks? Those will be important notes to watch for, important tells,
regarding existing positions.

End part 1
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Sunday, July 08, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-7-18

* * * *
7/7/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

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Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- NASDAQ, SP500 get off the cusp, join RUTX with significant moves.
- Jobs report drive the action? Trade? No.
- Trade and FOMC are still a problem for the market.
- Wages a problem? Not a problem? The Fed IS a problem.
- Some key stocks break higher Friday, others are in position to follow.

This past week some significant moves were made. Thursday RUTX made the
clean break from the 50 day EMA. SP400 started following that session,
really stepping out more Friday. SP500 finally showed some pop as well,
jumping from an 8-session lateral consolidation and importantly topping the
May peak. Chips were up, DJ30 as well, but they did not make very
significant breaks higher. More work to be done for those, but as with
SP500, at least they have a road map to follow, i.e. the moves of the other
indices.

Leadership was not bad either. FAANG stocks shows some serious action. FB
to a new all-time closing high despite the continual reports on privacy
issues. GOOG rallied nicely off the 50 day EMA test. NFLX broke higher on
solid volume from a 1.5 week consolidation. AMZN is still in that same
consolidation. AAPL as well. Perhaps the latter two will follow the other
FAANG leads as we would like SOX and DJ30 to do as well.

FAANG was not the only game in town. Drugs/biotechs, energy, software, some
key chips (e.g. AMD), TWTR, some metals, some materials (TREX) -- not
garbage. Hey, someone had to be pushing the indices higher. Good to see
there was some quality there; oh sure, it was not the industrial machinery
or JPM (though the latter were higher), but these were solid stocks.

SP500 23.21, 0.85%
NASDAQ 101.96, 1.34%
DJ30 99.74, 0.41%
SP400 0.76%
RUTX 0.87%
SOX 1.22%
NASDAQ 100 1.50%

VOLUME: NYSE -18%, NASDAQ -1%. Okay, no volume blowout, but it was Friday
on a holiday week. Stocks such as NFLX, FB, TWTR moved higher on quite
solid volume for a low volume session.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 2.9:1, NASDAQ 2.3:1. Not blowing away the downside
breadth shown on the worst selling, but not meaningless upside.

So was it the Jobs Report described as 'Goldilocks' by CNBC? Trade issues
improving? They didn't hurt, but they were not definitive.

Remember this: the moves Thursday and Friday were significant. Low volume
for sure and thus less impressive perhaps, but significant. That said,
there will still be ebb and flow from the issues of the day: trade
negotiations and the yield curve (aka the Fed).


NEWS/ECONOMY

Jobs Report: Good enough, but not great.

The doom/negative websites said to watch out for a jobs miss. The overly
bullish said expect huge. It was neither. It was not bad. It was more of the
same, i.e. an improving, decent jobs market but not producing wage growth.

Non-farm jobs: 213K vs 195K exp vs 244K prior (from 223K)

Unemployment Rate: 4.0% vs 3.8% expected vs 3.8% prior.

The increase resulted from more people entering the workforce looking for
jobs. This is, finally, a more normal reaction. Amazing isn't it how all
through the past 'recovery' nothing acted normal yet everyone said it was a
recovery. It wasn't. Now that we are having a recovery you see the numbers
reaction as they always do: more jobs and higher quality jobs are available,
those without jobs take heart and go looking for work. More people look
than can find jobs in a month and thus the unemployment rate rises. More
people reentering the workforce, not all of the new lookers find jobs,
unemployment rate rises. That is normal. That is healthy.

Wages: 0.2% vs 0.3% exp vs 0.3% prior. 2.7% year/year. Not rising as fast
as the other elements of the report. This is seen as a positive, i.e. the
Fed won't be compelled to hike rates as rapidly if wages are not rising and
'pushing' inflation as the Phillips Curve, Keynesian BS calls it. Wages
never, ever, in the history of the world, caused inflation. Wages rise out
of need for quality workers. The Fed fears that extra money will be pushed
into the market and if no more goods are made, then more money chases the
same amount of goods, the definition of inflation.

Problem is, as former Dallas Fed president McTeer noted, when the economy is
working such that wages would rise, supply rises and alleviates any demand
bottlenecks. The only thing that interrupts supply meeting demand? When
the Fed truncates money supply to the supply side and thus inhibits its
ability to meet demand. Thus, ironically and indeed tragically for the
average citizens involved, the Fed acts to prevent inflation, but the
actions it takes -- based on an 'indicator' that does not indicate what the
Fed thinks it does -- CAUSES the inflation as the supply of money to the
supply side is choked off.

Brilliant! The Fed never, ever understands this because it relies on a
model that worked only for 6 months in the entire economic history of the
world if it worked that long. It resorts to the standard Federal Reserve
Playbook Manual and takes steps that cause what it fears. Reminds me of the
movie 'Diehard' when the safe cracker says it will take a miracle to get
past the last lock. The FBI shows up and does the one thing that would let
them get past the last lock. The leader Hans proclaims to the safe cracker,
'You asked for a miracle? I give you the FBI.'

Looking at the yield curve flattening and the Fed hiking into that
flattening one has to wonder if the Fed should be in charge of anything
other than making sure there is enough security for the US gold stores.
Hell, the Fed is not even qualified for that. There should be a Fed, but
its ONLY duty should be to provide emergency liquidity when deemed necessary
and that should be automatically limited in time. Oh well. Trump won't
take on this project for now.

Workweek: 34.5 vs 34.5 exp vs 34.5 prior

U6: 7.8%. Rick Santelli at CNBC says this is the real unemployment rate.
When you factor in the 95Mish people out of the work force, I would hazard
it is MUCH higher, at least in real terms such as people who could work but
don't because they don't want to and don't have to because they can receive
benefits and live better than they did in the country they came from -- and
that includes people born in the US who have more disposable income taking
benefits than a person making close to $70K/year. See why there just might
be a problem?

Participation rate: 62.9% vs 62.7%.

More people coming back into the labor force, trying to weed down that 95.9M
people out of the workforce and get them into productive roles once again
versus reading the want ads, bed rest, and the other absurd things that
allowed them to collect unemployment or disability or some other 'aid.'

Where the Jobs Are:

Manufacturing +36K
Professional/Business: +50K
Healthcare: 25K
Construction 13K
Mining 5K
Retail -22K


Trade: US/China exchange $34B in trade tariff gifts on Friday. Trump
threatens billions, indeed hundreds of billions more. People wail and moan
and gnash their teeth. Changing the status quo can be trying, but do you
not do something that is right because it is difficult. I recall a
President saying we do these things not because they are easy, but because
they are hard. That problem with US leaders for the past 30 years is they
took the easy way out.

Trade Deficit:

Over past 3 months the deficit is down the most in 10 years. Currently the
read is the lowest since 10/2016. Seems to be going the way the President
wants it. We will see if that turns out to be a good thing.

Trade Tactics:

I continue hearing our feckless elected congressional officials cry about
the tactics used against our allies and non-allies regarding trade. They
want a kinder, gentler approach. We have HAD a kinder, gentler approach for
decades. That worked quite well -- for our 'allies.' They and our
non-allies (enemies?) have pantsed us. They don't care; they have a good
deal. So, do you continue to do what clearly has nil impact or do you
finally demand they change and if not, reap some of the pain we have to
endure? Our congressional leaders are, as stated, feckless. And imbeciles.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

RUTX: Finished the 50 day EMA test Monday with the reach lower and rebound
to positive, then extended that move each session. The definitive move was
Thursday as the market came back from the holiday. Friday RUTX extended
that move upside toward the prior high. Breakout, rally, test, new break
higher to a new high, then testing late June to key support. Now on an
impressive rebound.

SP400: Started higher Thursday, not as impressive as RUTX, but a solid move
upside. Friday was a more definitive move. Closing in on the prior high
(2008.97; closed at 1989.49) with a 50 day MA test and bounce.

NASDAQ: A significant move here as well though not until Friday. NASDAQ
broke from its 8 session lateral move over the 50 day MA. Not huge trade
but a key group of large cap techs along with small cap drugs posted solid
moves. NASDAQ closed at the early June interim high and the March high. Of
course it needs to keep powering upside to a new high.

SP500: Rallied out of its 8-session 50 day MA lateral move as well. Not
closing in on a new high, just the early June peak that was still below the
March lower high and well off the late January high at 2870. Okay, lots to
do still without any help from the financial stocks. That makes SP500's
attempt higher difficult, but it is holding where it has to and is at least
following.

DJ30: Works for now, but definitely a follower with its financial and
industrial components hurting it. Its drug components are helping, but even
with that help all DJ30 could do Friday was move back up through the 200 day
SMA.

SOX: Two days up off the 200 day SMA, similar to the move in early May.
Just has not made as much of the move, closing just below the 50 day MA's.
Some big names helped, e.g. AMD, TXN, but many were up but mostly a rebound
from selling to resistance.


LEADERSHIP

FAANG: FB new high. NFLX starting higher out of a 1.5 week consolidation.
GOOG rebounding past the recent recovery high. Decent. AAPL, AMZN still in
the same 1.5 week consolidation. NFLX moving toward earnings, FB as well.

Software: UIS found its stride. TTWO moved to a new recovery high. GLUU
started up off its 3 week lateral consolidation. VRSN continues working
higher though on low trade. Ditto DATA, but not losing sleep over that.
Even MSFT broke higher off the 50 day MA.

Chips: AMD posted a powerful move for us. NVDA is trying to come back from
below 450 day MA oblivion. 252 is a key level for it buy the way. QRVO
took Friday off but surged back Thursday. MXIM posted a nice late-week
recovery as well. SLAB looking frisky. MU, AMAT and others looking for
help.

Drugs/Biotechs: Some stocks coming up off tests while others try to turn
away from downtrends. ACAD trying to break higher. BIIB exploding upside
with a gap on strong alzheimer's drug results. CELG moving up through the
50 day MA. ARWR keeps moving higher for us. Have some new additions for
this coming week.

Energy/Oil: Still look good, still looking for a good move. APC held a 20
day EMA test. APA trending nicely up the 10 day EMA. MRO, COP still basing
in solid patterns. CXO breaking higher. Other possibilities as well, e.g.
WDC, EOG.

Retail: Some bouncing such as COST moving off the 20 day EMA. Ditto ROST.
Still waiting for RH to move higher.

Financials: Posted gains Friday, but gains with not a lot of meaning. WFC
looks as if it might actually attempt a break higher through the 200 day
SMA. BAC and JPM could do this as well, but they are not an imminent threat
to move through that resistance anytime soon. C can bounce as well. Sure
it can; anything can bounce for a bit. C does look, however, as if it has
done its time and put in something of a near term bottom.



MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +99.74 points (+0.41%) to close at 24456.48

Nasdaq
Stats: +101.96 points (+1.34%) to close at 7688.39
Volume: 1.72B (-1.15%)

Up Volume: 1.35B (+60M)
Down Volume: 349.68M (-86.22M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.32 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.4 to 1

New Highs: 129 (+43)
New Lows: 21 (-16)

S&P
Stats: +23.21 points (+0.85%) to close at 2759.82
NYSE Volume: 664.553M (-17.67%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.87 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.81 to 1

New Highs: 138 (+60)
New Lows: 30 (-7)


SENTIMENT

VIX: 13.37; -1.60
VXN: 18.72; -1.63
VXO: 12.71; -2.25

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.00; +0.09

Bulls and Bears:

As noted last week with the sharp drop in bullish sentiment over the prior
two weeks, the sharp drop weighed for a move back up. Looks as if that move
started.


Bulls: 47.6 versus 52.0

Bears: 18.4 versus 17.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 47.6 versus 52.0
52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1
versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5
versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4
versus 66.00 versus 64.7 versus 66.7 versus 64.4 versus 61.9 versus 64.1
versus 64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5
versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5
versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5
versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9
versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1
versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8
versus 49.5

Bears: 18.4 versus 17.6
17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6
versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8
versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5
versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4
versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1
versus 19.0 versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.824% versus 2.835%. Bumped up into the 200 day SMA the prior week,
tested, then moved through the 200 day SMA Thursday and gapped upside
Friday. Bonds rallying as the Fed says it is hawkish. Goodness.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.835%
versus 2.833% versus 2.871% versus 2.86% versus 2.84% versus 2.833% versus
2.877% versus 2.882% versus 2.895% versus 2.899% versus 2.937% versus 2.889%
versus 2.915% versus 2.922% versus 2.933% versus 2.977% versus 2.963% versus
2.952% versus 2.948% versus 2.928% versus 2.974% versus 2.935% versus 2.944%
versus 2.902% versus 2.86% versus 2.857% versus 2.79% versus 2.931% versus
2.992% versus 2.982% versus 3.063% versus 3.056% versus 3.06% versus 3.123%
versus 3.096% versus 3.069% versus 2.997% versus 2.97% versus 2.966% versus
3.006% versus 2.952% versus 2.948% versus 2.968% versus 2.954% versus 2.959%
versus 2.975% versus 3.0245% versus 3.00% versus 2.962% versus 2.96% versus
2.914% versus 2.867% versus 2.83%


EUR/USD: 1.17439 versus 1.1689. Euro breaking higher despite the jobs
report, despite a hawkish Fed. Coming off a double bottom, moving up
through the 50 day MA, so there is some technical foundation here.

Historical: 1.1689 versus 1.1665 versus 1.16388 versus 1.1638 versus 1.15634
versus 1.15602 versus 1.16517 versus 1.17031 versus 1.16572 versus 1.16072
versus 1.15762 versus 1.1586 versus 1.15746 versus 1.2624 versus 1.16245
versus 1.15678 versus 1.17973 versus 1.17454 versus 1.17761 versus 1.17737
versus 1.17987 versus 1.1774 versus 1.1762 versus 1.1697 versus 1.166 versus
1.16993 versus 1.16643 versus 1.15446 versus 1.17148 versus 1.17096 versus
1.17022 versus 1.17826 versus 1.1786 versus 1.17714 versus 1.1802 versus
1.1811 versus 1.18272 versus 1.19358 versus 1.19411 versus 1.1913 versus
1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus 1.19619 versus 1.1983 versus
1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus 1.21291 versus 1.21788 versus
1.2163 versus 1.22232


USD/JPY: 110.474 versus 110.666. Dollar off Friday but just testing a break
back up through the 200 day SMA and measuring a run at the May high.

Historical: 110.666 versus 110.40 versus 110.854 versus 110.687 versus
110.523 versus 110.223 versus 110.097 versus 109.678 versus 109.980 versus
109.895 versus 110.376 versus 110.03 versus 109.783 versus 110.668 versus
110.578 versus 110.247 versus 110.381 versus 110.314 versus 109.466 versus
109.705 versus 110.164 versus 109.878 versus 109.90 versus 109.53 versus
108.767 versus 108.699 versus 108.699 versus 109.385 versus 109.667 versus
109.502 versus 110.833 versus 110.95 versus 110.76 versus 110.935 versus
110.376 versus 110.246 versus 109.693 versus 109.384 versus 109.40 versus
109.746 versus 109.038 versus 109.022 versus 109.08 versus 109.175 versus
109.628 versus 109.91 versus 109.354 versus 109.051 versus 109.28 versus
109.373 versus 108.894 versus 108.728 versus 107.645 versus 107.404 versus
107.409 versus 107.027 versus 107.010


Oil: 73.80, +0.86. Testing the higher high with a 4-day lateral move. 10
day EMA has now caught up to it.


Gold: 1255.80, -3.00. Bounced up to the 10 day EMA Tuesday and Thursday,
stalled Friday with a doji. Key initial bounce. Fails here, chronic
weakness.


MONDAY

Ah, a full week. The market will show if the moves I deemed significant
from Thursday and Friday (even with low volume) will hold the move.
Substantive leadership helped drive the move, leaders from the prior rally.
RUTX broke higher first with SP400 and NASDAQ following. That gives the
move some credence. Now the move has to show staying power.

Building on the significance of the 'significant move' call, we are looking
at adding positions if the new plays and existing plays make significant
moves. We will also let existing positions continue to work, some
rebounding from the prior selling, others from our recent entry points.

Earnings are just ahead, indeed already starting, and stocks, after a
selloff, are stirring higher ahead of results. That may give us some nice
gains to take before individual announcements, and with the pullback there
could still be good upside even on the results announcement. We will see
how that plays out, but for now we are looking to enter more plays as they
continue making significant moves.

Have a great weekend!

End part 1
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Sunday, July 01, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 6-30-18

* * * *
6/30/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************

NO VIDEOS THIS WEEKEND AS I AM IN A LOCATION WHERE IT IS NOT FEASIBLE TO
RECORD THEM. WILL CONTINUE VIDEOS THIS WEEK. THANK YOU!

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks try to continue the Thursday move higher, do a poor job.
- Modest gains Friday fail to shake off the lack of bids, selling, leaving
the character the same heading into the third quarter.
- Indices, key stocks still holding important support, thus far still unable
to move higher.

Friday started out with promise with futures higher as a follow up to the
Thursday upside. While the indices managed to close positive (for the most
part -- RUTX lower), the upside was really nothing by the close. Just more
lateral movement over some key support for NASDAQ, RUTX, SP400, SP500 (50
day MA), the 200 day SMA for DJ30 and SOX. In short, nothing to change the
status of the market as it tries to find footing at key support to continue
the overall uptrend.

Alas, another week of indecisive action other than to hold support by the
indices and many leading stocks. That in itself is not bad, and after 2 to
4 weeks of fading off the most recent highs, that is not the bad action many
claim it to be, e.g. some saying it is the start of a new bear market.
Seriously? Perhaps they are brilliantly prescient, but as for the patterns
I see, there is some seriously good stocks in seriously good position. If
the bids return at these classic bounce points, some seriously good moves
could result.

That is the technical picture: testing important support after a move to new
highs for many indices and stocks, still in the upside trend as they test.

SP500 2.06, 0.08%
NASDAQ 6.62, 0.09%
DJ30 55.36, 0.23%
SP400 0.07%
RUTX -0.12%
SOX 0.16%
NASDAQ 100 0.13%

VOLUME: NYSE +21%, NASDAQ +1%.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE +1.4:1, NASDAQ +1.2:1.

As for the sentiment aspects, the past two weeks there was/is a lot of talk
about a market top. Of course stocks sold into this test during that time.
New highs in the indices, many new highs in stocks. That typically brings
out calls of a market top.

There is also news, but it is all superseded by the trade discussions,
predictions, fears, rumors, speculation, and weak opinionating. Likely the
most important news of all is not really news, but a story, the story of the
Fed. It remains in the background, ready, by its own words, to continue
hiking in order to be ready for the next crisis. Ironically, and indeed
unsurprisingly, the yield curve is flattening as the Fed says it continues
its path to normalize rates. The Fed typically overacts and causes the
slowdowns it fears. That it is bent on tightening as the yield curve
flattens of course raises investor concerns.

Thus the resolution at this key support we are still waiting for, remains,
to use the President's terminology, huge.

As for trade, Friday there were reports of more 'troubling' developments,
primarily AKIOS reporting Trump is seeking at WTO withdrawal. The White
House responded that was the President was not seeking a withdrawal. Talk
about a nondenial denial. Okay, perhaps the White House wants serious
changes to the US' involvement and willingness to acquiesce to certain
aspects. Good cop, bad cop again, all played by the same person.

Chicago PMI, June: 64.1 versus 61 expected versus 62.7 May

Michigan Sentiment, June: 98.2 versus 99.0 versus 99.3.

Personal Income, May: 0.4 versus 0.4 expected versus 0.2% April (from 0.3%)

Spending, May: 0.2 versus 0.4 expected versus 0.5 April (from 0.6%)

News, important news, but most of it eclipsed, of course, by the trade 'war'
news. And the Fed's ongoing rate hike campaign in the background.


CHARTS

To view, click on the following links:

http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg

Still working at key support levels, trying to find footing. Or not. This
is, as noted, a continued key test for the indices.

RUTX: A pair of doji at the 50 day EMA, holding it Thursday and bouncing,
failing to hold an upside move Friday. RUTX has tested the second leg in
the rally that started with the mid-May breakout, holding at the 38%
Fibonacci retracement as well as that 50 day EMA. Excellent position to
bounce, now weighing the impact of the Fed as a negative versus the trade
issues that are a positive.

NASDAQ: Gapped higher, coughed up the move, closed basically flat. Still
over the 50 day MA, now for 5 sessions as it too assesses trade versus the
Fed. Now, if you look at the technical picture, NASDAQ is halfway in the
uptrend channel that is using the early 2016 trendline as the lower channel
line. Now for those of you who have been with us for a bit know that higher
lows at important support inside channels, horizontal trading ranges,
triangles, etc. can lead to breakouts from the patterns. Thus, this is a
positive at this level, but a potential one as NASDAQ will have to make the
move.

SP400: The midcaps also spent the week holding at the 50 day MA. As noted
Thursday, there is the possibility of a bounce to a right shoulder to a head
and shoulders pattern that, if formed, started in May. There is also the
potential for a larger double top from the January and June highs.
Obviously that makes this 50 day MA test very important. Nothing new there.

SP500: Very similar to SP400, also holding the 50 day MA the past week.
Also, a potential head and shoulders to watch for if the index bounces to
2750ish and stalls, it likely has to deal with some downside. Important
higher high at important support.

SOX: Still holding at the 200 day SMA, spending the week there after the
Monday drop. Again, SOX held the 200 day SMA for 2 weeks in late
April/early May, and now we see if it can make the break higher once again.

DJ30: Held 24,000 on the low for the week, trying to rebound as in April
and May. Important test, needs some financials to help out.

Summary: Held the week at key support, but now has to deal with a holiday
shortened week and the month of the summer earnings season. Calls are for
20% earnings growth. Very optimistic but again, the issue is trade, and in
the background the Fed and that flattening yield curve.


LEADERSHP

Energy continues to set up some good patterns with some breaking higher.
Not many, just some. Energy tends to do that, i.e. look good, be set up,
then fail to make a move. With hold surging it would appear a no brainer,
yet oil stocks don't always follow oil prices.

Names: These stocks are well-known or at least are institutionally known,
and continue looking good at the weekend as much as they did Thursday.
TWTR, TTWO, ROKU, VMW, AMZN, NFLX, BDX, IQ, ALXN, ARWR, VRSN, ADBE.

There are other stocks from other groups also setting up well. WSM, RH,
BBY, TJX, SUPN, SIMO, LSCC, PII, RACE -- a diverse group of very good
patterns testing.

Set up yes, but as noted last week, the patterns have to hold, have to
advance off this support. The indices can do it if the leaders and second
tier do so as well. They look good. As noted Thursday, they are not
slouches.

Friday some attempted to move, most held their ground. Still waiting for
definitive moves by these stocks or perhaps some new group emerges. All the
better. The patterns remain very good, the indices are not yet giving up
support. I am not intending to sound overly optimistic or Polly Anna, but
the market will show what it will do off this test. The yield curve is a
worry -- do not think we are discounting it. Again, however, I am not smart
enough to foretell the market move, just prepare for the probabilities.
Great leadership in good patterns, indices testing key support in the
patterns. We will see how they react this coming week or next. Yes, it
could take that long.

Have a great weekend and Fourth!


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +55.36 points (+0.23%) to close at 24271.41

Nasdaq
Stats: +6.62 points (+0.09%) to close at 7510.30
Volume: 2.2B (+0.79%)

Up Volume: 1.25B (-150M)
Down Volume: 914.06M (+142.72M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.19 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.23 to 1

New Highs: 63 (+15)
New Lows: 66 (-70)

S&P
Stats: +2.06 points (+0.08%) to close at 2718.37
NYSE Volume: 978.114M (+21.27%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.39 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.5 to 1

New Highs: 53 (+13)
New Lows: 62 (-94)


SENTIMENT

VIX: 16.09; -0.76
VXN: 20.88; -0.88
VXO: 15.26; -0.92

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.24; -0.08

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls continue falling back, the past week a very sharp drop while bears
rise put in a fairly significant move of their own. Bulls are off 7.9
points in 2 weeks, a big drop. Typically sentiment is inverse of trade.
Negative sentiment is rallying as stocks test key support. This weighs for
a move back upside.


Bulls: 47.6 versus 52.0

Bears: 18.4 versus 17.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 47.6 versus 52.0
52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1
versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5
versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4
versus 66.00 versus 64.7 versus 66.7 versus 64.4 versus 61.9 versus 64.1
versus 64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5
versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5
versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5
versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9
versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1
versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8
versus 49.5

Bears: 18.4 versus 17.6
17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6
versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8
versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5
versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4
versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1
versus 19.0 versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.86% versus 2.84%. TLT rallied through the 200 day SMA intraday,
gave it up, falling back to close below it. Important level.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.84%
versus 2.833% versus 2.877% versus 2.882% versus 2.895% versus 2.899% versus
2.937% versus 2.889% versus 2.915% versus 2.922% versus 2.933% versus 2.977%
versus 2.963% versus 2.952% versus 2.948% versus 2.928% versus 2.974% versus
2.935% versus 2.944% versus 2.902% versus 2.86% versus 2.857% versus 2.79%
versus 2.931% versus 2.992% versus 2.982% versus 3.063% versus 3.056% versus
3.06% versus 3.123% versus 3.096% versus 3.069% versus 2.997% versus 2.97%
versus 2.966% versus 3.006% versus 2.952% versus 2.948% versus 2.968% versus
2.954% versus 2.959% versus 2.975% versus 3.0245% versus 3.00% versus 2.962%
versus 2.96% versus 2.914% versus 2.867% versus 2.83% versus 2.829 versus
2.825% versus 2.781%


EUR/USD: 1.1638 versus 1.15634. Still working in its 3 week lateral move
below the 50 day EMA.

Historical: 1.15634 versus 1.15602 versus 1.16517 versus 1.17031 versus
1.16572 versus 1.16072 versus 1.15762 versus 1.1586 versus 1.15746 versus
1.2624 versus 1.16245 versus 1.15678 versus 1.17973 versus 1.17454 versus
1.17761 versus 1.17737 versus 1.17987 versus 1.1774 versus 1.1762 versus
1.1697 versus 1.166 versus 1.16993 versus 1.16643 versus 1.15446 versus
1.17148 versus 1.17096 versus 1.17022 versus 1.17826 versus 1.1786 versus
1.17714 versus 1.1802 versus 1.1811 versus 1.18272 versus 1.19358 versus
1.19411 versus 1.1913 versus 1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus
1.19619 versus 1.1983 versus 1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus
1.21291 versus 1.21788 versus 1.2163 versus 1.22232


USD/JPY: 110.687 versus 110.523. Broke over the 200 day SMA again on the
week but again stalled at 111.

Historical: 110.523 versus 110.223 versus 110.097 versus 109.678 versus
109.980 versus 109.895 versus 110.376 versus 110.03 versus 109.783 versus
110.668 versus 110.578 versus 110.247 versus 110.381 versus 110.314 versus
109.466 versus 109.705 versus 110.164 versus 109.878 versus 109.90 versus
109.53 versus 108.767 versus 108.699 versus 108.699 versus 109.385 versus
109.667 versus 109.502 versus 110.833 versus 110.95 versus 110.76 versus
110.935 versus 110.376 versus 110.246 versus 109.693 versus 109.384 versus
109.40 versus 109.746 versus 109.038 versus 109.022 versus 109.08 versus
109.175 versus 109.628 versus 109.91 versus 109.354 versus 109.051 versus
109.28 versus 109.373 versus 108.894 versus 108.728 versus 107.645 versus
107.404 versus 107.409 versus 107.027 versus 107.010


Oil: 74.14, +0.70. Impressive 2 week run to a higher high.


Gold: 1254.50, +3.50. Two week decline to near the December 2017 low,
bounced modestly Friday.

End part 1
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Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439