Saturday, May 19, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 5-19-18

* * * *
5/19/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: BA
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
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********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- Chips undermine any attempt for a group move higher.
- Economic data showing improvement, the kind that economists always miss.
- Still watching to see if the large cap and midcap indices can make good on
their good patterns.
- China says it never agreed to reduce the trade deficit $200B, but this
weekend agrees to "substantially reduce" the gap. Okay, given the trade
gap's size, $200B looks 'substantial.' Perhaps this 'deal' helps stocks
Monday.

Overall a week of lateral movement as the indices consolidated the initial,
and thus far only, surge off support. Sure, Tuesday was a hard day for the
large cap indices, but they hung on and worked laterally along the 10 day
EMA.

Of course, there are always exceptions to the general rule. There was
nothing lateral about the RUTX small caps as they tested early then surged
Wednesday and Thursday, taking a breather for a modest gain Friday. A lot
of power from the small caps as they punched out three consecutive new
all-time highs.

The other exception: SOX. It too suffered the Tuesday drop but held and
bounced nicely Wednesday. It looked good to go but then AMAT's weak
guidance undermined the move as it dragged other stocks lower and SOX with
it, gapping downside to a 1.44% Friday loss. Chips are an important group
to the market, and there is a question mark after Friday whether they can
shake off the AMAT impact and perhaps form a right shoulder to a potential
inverted head and shoulders pattern. That will take time, but it will also
show itself if SOX is able to limit the downside in the coming week.

SP500 -7.16, -0.26%
NASDAQ -28.13, -0.38%
DJ30 1.11, 0.00%
SP400 -0.25%
RUTX 0.08%
SOX -1.44%
NASDAQ 100 -0.51%

VOLUME: NYSE +18%, NASDAQ +2%. Upside volume, moving up above average again
for the first time in 7 sessions, as the NYSE indices were not hit hard.
That is not a bad thing given the lateral consolidation. NASDAQ trade still
below average as it tests the 10 day EMA, not bad action at all.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE +1.1:1, NASDAQ edges just positive. All thanks to the
small caps.

Again it was said trade was a concern with China saying it would never
unilaterally offer to reduce the budget deficit by $200B, Larry Kudlow then
saying China was lying, all the while China dropped its inquiry into claims
the US is dumping sorghum. Lots of words, lots of positioning, but it is
the actions that are ultimately the key. Of course, it does not help that
the US is now bickering with Europe over trade as well. China, Europe,
NAFTA. A trifecta.

Outside of ongoing trade speculation the economic data was not bad. Philly
Fed on Thursday shot past expectations and continuing claims has dropped
like a rock the past year. Retail sales dropped from March levels but the
revisions were to the upside and that means that likely the April readings
will be upwardly revised as well. When you start seeing the upward
revisions, that typically means any slow down is over, that the economists
are still seeing things through their 3-steps behind glasses.

'Ah ha!' the economists all say. THAT is why the RUTX surged to a new
all-time high while the large cap indices, laden with their worries over a
trade conflict, have failed to move. Oh, how silly of me; economists don't
know squat about markets. Heck, 90% of them don't know squat about
economics!


THE MARKET

CHARTS

RUTX: Continued the breakout to higher highs. Strong initial move, 3 days
of pause/test, two new upside sessions to new highs Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday was up but a day off with a modest gain, showing a doji. Broke out,
put in a good move on top of the breakout.

SOX: I said it was hardly the picture of health, and Friday it showed some
issues after AMAT's earnings beat but lowered guidance. Sounded like CAT in
a way. Other chip equipment stocks fell with AMAT, dragging SOX to the 10
day EMA on the close. That puts SOX at the trendline as well. There is the
possibility of forming an inverted head and shoulders with a dip to the 50
day SMA (another 15 points). Possible. SOX is still trending higher, but
it will have to overcome the AMAT pall and forming a right shoulder could do
it.

SP400: An upside week but barely. SP400 had to test to the 10 day EMA
before breaking higher the second half of the week. Tested the prior break
over the April high, moved back up to hold the breakout. Friday was off a
bit. Breakout, tested, now we will see if SP400 can follow RUTX higher
toward the old highs. A long way to go with an interim peak in between to
get to that prior all-time high.

SP500: Holding at the 10 day EMA after dropping to that level on the
Tuesday flop that ended leg one of this latest upside attempt. Friday saw
BA, CAT, DE and others break higher, but they could not budge the needle on
the entire 500 large caps. Still a very good break higher out of the
triangle followed by the current nice tight lateral test. MACD looks good
as noted before. All that is missing is the next upside break.

DJ30: Very tight lateral move over the 10 day EMA Tuesday through Friday
after the drop from Monday that put in a new high on the rally off support.
Breakout from the triangle, a move over the April high, now testing that
move. Nice pattern, but nice patterns are just nice patterns until the next
break is put in. BA broke higher, CAT as well, both components. If AAPL
can throw in as well, that perhaps will help spring the move.

NASDAQ: Broke over the April high the prior week, held it Monday, but then
dropped Tuesday to the 10 day EMA and that prior peak. Worked laterally,
tried to make the break Wednesday, but didn't stick and NASDAQ closed the
week at the 10 day. As with the other large cap indices, it is in position
to move higher, just needs to show the move.


LEADERSHIP

Oil: Oils stocks enjoyed the lead, as a group, for the week. HAL, SLB,
PTEN, NBR, SPN and others had great weeks if not great Fridays. WHD had a
great week regardless of the day. We were able to bank some nice gain on
the week with several of our positions.

Drugs/biotechs: After a quiet 2+ weeks of consolidation, some good breaks
higher toward the end of the week. IMMU, ECYT gapped and gave us nice gains
to bank. ARWR is still solid in its upside move. Still waiting for BIIB to
make a break higher form a well-formed pattern. VCEL climbing the 10 day.
BLUE, as volatile as ever, is in the process of what looks to be a big move
starting.

China stocks: Volatile as well but mostly upside. BABA is in a 2 week
lateral move. BZUN exploded higher Thursday to a new high, kept it going
Friday. HTHT enjoyed a huge week, frontend loaded. ATHM took a breather
after a good break higher. YY started higher. SOHU could not advance its
Monday break higher. BITA is interesting. BIDU was clocked Friday, gapping
sharply lower to the 50 day EMA after a strong upside move.

Software: After a week of testing, many are starting to bounce back, e.g.
NOW, DATA. ULTI tested for a week and if it can get some volume we are
interested on a new move. UIS still looks good, still has not moved. CRM
testing the 20 day EMA. RHT testing the 50 day MA, started to bounce
Friday, not bad volume. Still a very solid sector.

Big Names: AAPL still in the 10 day EMA test of its break higher from its
range. FB testing its break higher with a 10 day EMA lateral move. GOOG
gapped to the 50 day MA on word of a story coming out about it losing the AI
battle with AMZN. NVDA fell to the 20 day EMA Tuesday and is attempting a
rebound. INTC fell to the 20 day EMA Friday, struggling as did most chips.
Still a nice uptrend. MSFT in a nice 20 day EMA test.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +1.11 points (0.00%) to close at 24715.09

Nasdaq
Stats: -28.13 points (-0.38%) to close at 7354.34
Volume: 1.95B (+1.56%)

Up Volume: 909.89M (+37.87M)
Down Volume: 1B (+23.7M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.01 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.54 to 1

New Highs: 148 (-24)
New Lows: 42 (-9)

S&P
Stats: -7.16 points (-0.26%) to close at 2712.97
NYSE Volume: 872M (+17.54%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.06 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.18 to 1

New Highs: 112 (-37)
New Lows: 72 (+19)


SENTIMENT

VIX: 13.42; -0.01
VXN: 16.87; -0.32
VXO: 13.31; +0.33

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.03; +0.20

Bulls and Bears:

After dropping similar to a stone from 65+ to the 40's, bulls rebounded 3.5
points, somewhat upper mid-level. Big move to a higher high, big drop, now
can stocks find enough contrary view to make a break higher?

Bulls: 46.6 versus 43.1

Bears: 19.4 versus 20.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 46.6 versus 43.1
43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5
versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4
versus 66.00 versus 64.7 versus 66.7 versus 64.4 versus 61.9 versus 64.1
versus 64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5
versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5
versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5
versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9
versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1
versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8
versus 49.5

Bears: 19.4 versus 20.6
20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8
versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5
versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1
versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4
versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1
versus 19.0 versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 3.06% versus 3.123%. Bonds bounced some Friday after breaking below
the April and February levels, but the main point is yields held over 3.0%

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.123%
versus 3.096% versus 3.069% versus 2.997% versus 2.97% versus 2.966% versus
3.006% versus 2.952% versus 2.948% versus 2.968% versus 2.954% versus 2.959%
versus 2.975% versus 3.0245% versus 3.00% versus 2.962% versus 2.96% versus
2.914% versus 2.867% versus 2.83% versus 2.829 versus 2.825% versus 2.781%
versus 2.801% versus 2.805% versus 2.775% versus 2.812% versus 2.806% versus
2.781% versus 2.739% versus 2.714% versus 2.781% versus 2.775% versus 2.854%
versus 2.813% versus 2.814% versus 2.881% versus 2.90% versus 2.852%


EUR/USD: 1.17714 versus 1.1802. After rebounding to the 10 day EMA into
Monday, the euro crashed lower Tuesday and continued to a lower selloff low
Friday.

Historical: 1.1802 versus 1.1811 versus 1.18272 versus 1.19358 versus
1.19411 versus 1.1913 versus 1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus
1.19619 versus 1.1983 versus 1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus
1.21291 versus 1.21788 versus 1.2163 versus 1.22232 versus 1.22094 versus
1.22876 versus 1.23464 versus 1.23748 versus 1.23712 versus 1.238532 versus
1.23313 versus 1.23299 versus 1.23720 versus 1.2359 versus 1.2311 versus
1.22812 versus 1.2247 versus 1.2285


USD/JPY: 110.76 versus 110.935. Dollar broke out over the 200 day SMA
Thursday, paused Friday. This was the next key level.

Historical: 110.935 versus 110.376 versus 110.246 versus 109.693 versus
109.384 versus 109.40 versus 109.746 versus 109.038 versus 109.022 versus
109.08 versus 109.175 versus 109.628 versus 109.91 versus 109.354 versus
109.051 versus 109.28 versus 109.373 versus 108.894 versus 108.728 versus
107.645 versus 107.404 versus 107.409 versus 107.027 versus 107.010 versus
107.362 versus 107.267 versus 106.882 versus 106.873 versus 107.09 versus
107.16 versus 106.939 versus 107.11 versus 106.816 versus 106.797 versus
105.901 versus 106.286 versus 106.81 versus 105.397 versus 105.473 versus
104.789 versus 104.829 versus 105.892 versus 106.478 versus 105.945 versus
105.946


Oil: 71.37, -0.12. Oil was off Friday and sluggish on the week, but it
continued its climb up the 10 day EMA.


Gold: 1291.30, +1.90. Plunged below the 200 day SMA Tuesday, holding the
same level through Friday.


MONDAY

The indices were unable to make a break higher Friday even though some
stocks jumped upside, e.g. BA. Chips were a drag, pure and simple. Other
groups were up, but not enough to offset the negatives and boost a new break
higher. Thus, the stock indices enter next week with SP500, DJ30, NASDAQ,
SP400 in good patterns but still looking for the next break higher, RUTX
likely ready to test its upside surge, and SOX trying to find out where it
wants to try and make a stand.

Now if trade is truly an issue, and it is to a certain extent, there may be
some positives to start the week. China and the US met and it is reported
that China agrees to boost US export purchases to "substantially reduce" the
trade gap. Is $200B a 'substantial reduction?' Was Larry Kudlow right in
calling China a liar and did China make claims it knew were untrue (I guess
that means it lied . . .)?

Well, given you know China likes to be able to save face, it would appear
that its readiness to agree to "substantially reduce" the trade gap but not
say it agreed to $200B in reductions is just that: face-saving semantics.

Perhaps this 'deal' will boost stocks. Perhaps there is still a lot of
weekend ahead. There is also the chip stocks. Can the market rally without
them? Yes, but it is not as easy. Good patterns remain in many areas and
we will see if they can continue breaking higher. They need to in order to
offset those groups struggling, e.g. fast food (SONC, JACK, YUM) and some
not-so-fast food (RRGB, TXRH).

In the end it comes down to leaders and whether they can make good on good
patterns. Many are and we banked some nice gain the past week. More will
have to make the moves to push SP500, DJ30, NASDAQ, SP400 higher out of
their bases. It is May, it is already hot outside, and the market has to
deal with the time of year issue (sell in May and go away . . .). For now,
if the stocks make the moves, we will play the stocks.

Have a great weekend!

End part 1
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Saturday, May 12, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 5-12-18

* * * *
5/12/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: WHD
Entry alerts: PTN; TSCO
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: XON

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- Rally takes a pause Friday after a solid week showing decent internals,
good enough leadership.
- Stock indices clear initial resistance, set for a short test.
- Earnings remain good enough but not exploding stocks higher.

On Friday, after 5 or 6 days of upside, the market rested. Nice moves off
support by all the indices with RUTX already bumping at the all-time highs.
Makes sense that they took a breather after the nice break higher, with some
decent volume as well, ahead of the weekend.

SP500 4.65, 0.17%
NASDAQ -2.09, -0.03%
DJ30 91.64, 0.37%
SP400 0.06%
RUTX 0.19%
SOX -0.75%
NASDAQ 100 0.16%

VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -4%

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE +1.2:1, NASDAQ +1.2:1

The week continued the rally and put a stronger stamp on the bounce that
started two Thursdays back with the doji reversal off support on all the
indices. Good volume on a key break higher as the indices broke through
near resistance. SP500, DJ30, SP400 cleared the upper trendline in their
triangles/downward wedges. NASDAQ, RUTX cleared the April highs with RUTX
rallying to the prior all-time highs. Not huge volume all the way up, but
strong volume on the breaks through resistance. That works.

Leadership is solid enough. Not many huge moves on the session as many that
led the break higher took a day off. Others, however, jumped. Retail posted
excellent gains. HD broke free from the handle. TSCO did the same with a
2.68% gain. FOSL surged on the week with a big breakout. BBY jumped
Friday. Nice. China stocks had a great week, e.g. ATHM, BIDU, while others
posted decent Friday moves, e.g. BIDU, HTHT. Software was strong again if
not on Friday.

So, a bounce higher on the indices off support, good volume on the break
through resistance, more than enough volume. Not the strongest move ever,
but compared to what the market showed before, a rather impressive week.

Friday was a rest day. Likely there is more testing early next week, and
that is good. A couple more days off would be normal, and then the market
shows if it can make good on that break of resistance. Thus far the move
looks solid, and we will be looking to move in to more positions, some that
gapped away from us this week, after they test the initial move.

THE MARKET

CHARTS

RUTX: The small cap leadership continued through the week, and Thursday and
Friday RUTX bumped against the March and January highs. After 6 sessions
upside and a 66 point move to that resistance, a pause would be normal.
Looking for a flag test to form and then RUTX can take on the prior highs.

SP500: Broke over the April high as well as the upper trendline to the
triangle on the week, pausing for a rest Friday. Good initial move off the
200 day SMA and the bottom of the triangle, breaking through the upper
trendline. Now a pause after 6 days off the support and that should set
SP500 for a renewed move higher.

NASDAQ: A strong move on the week as well, coming off the lower trendline
from 2016, clearing the mid-April high. Actually showed above average
volume on the Wednesday break past the April peak. Friday was a day off on
lower trade. As with the other indices, a test for a couple more days puts
in a 1-2-3 test and it is ready for a new upside leg in this move.

DJ30: Broke through the 50 day MA's and the upper trendline to the downward
wedge Wednesday, and continued upside through Friday. Volume was no great
shakes, but DJ30 moved through the mid-April peak, taking out the next
important resistance. Not a hugely powerful move, but breaking some
resistance, following the other indices.

SP400: Doji Friday after breaking higher the prior Friday and rallying
through Thursday. Cleared the 50 day MA's, the upper trendline to the
triangle, and the April peak long the way. Not as powerful as RUTX, but
knocking down the resistance as it finds it.

SOX: Took Friday off after breaking through the 50 day MA Thursday in a
6-session rally. That pushed SOX to the mid-April high and back in the old
channel from late 2017 into 2018. Recovered, but not much of a pattern.


LEADERSHIP

Chips: Hard to call this a leadership group right now as there are not that
many pushing to higher highs, but it is an important group and so worth a
look. MU moved up to the 50 day SMA late week, but still no volume. LRCX
is not bad given an inverted head and shoulders/ABCD pattern. AVGO is in a
trading range. QRVO is pausing after a 2-week move straight up. VSH is
testing a nice break higher. Some good moves, but again, not a huge area of
leaders.

China: Solid moves last week with some taking a pause Friday, e.g. BABA,
BZUN, WUBA. ATHM surged then rested Friday. BIDU, HTHT added some more
upside through Friday. Solid group.

FAANG: A week that saw some FAANG stocks renew. GOOG was one with a solid
surge on the week though flattish Friday. FB surged nicely on the week.
AAPL was off Friday but a steady rise on the week. AMZN is over the 10 day
EMA but very sluggish. NFLX is the same way, easing to test the 10 day EMA.

Oil stocks: Mostly an upside week as stocks started moving higher out of
patterns or continued moves, but it was back and forth each session and the
gains were still overall modest. SLB gapped out of its handle, but could go
no farther. HAL still in the lateral move. ESV enjoyed a strong week.
PTEN up slowly along the 10 day EMA. NBR stuck in a lateral move. Offshore
drillers were off Friday, but broke higher on the week, e.g. RIG, DO.

Retail: Well, Thursday I called the group unremarkable, then Friday there
were some good breaks. HD, TSCO jumped for us. BBY started breaking
higher. Nice. RH testing late week. COST, ROST not bad but still stuck in
a lateral range.

Healthcare: The Trump healthcare proposals gave these stocks a rush Friday.
We will see if they can sustain the momentum. ESRX, UNH, DVA, BIIB look
interesting.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: -2.09 points (-0.03%) to close at 7402.88
Volume: 2.08B (-3.55%)

Up Volume: 925.67M (-604.33M)
Down Volume: 1.12B (+445.26M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.19 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.58 to 1

New Highs: 151 (-25)
New Lows: 49 (+7)

S&P
Stats: +4.65 points (+0.17%) to close at 2727.72
NYSE Volume: 709.964M (-7.65%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.54 to 1

New Highs: 118 (-21)
New Lows: 27 (-4)

SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.65; -0.58
VXN: 16.19; -0.19
VXO: 12.57; -0.64

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.98; +0.17


Bulls and Bears:

Of COURSE bulls fell the past two weeks as the market started to rebound.
That is how this works, i.e. an inverse relationship.

Bulls: 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0

Bears: 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 43.1 versus 43.6
43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9
versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
versus 64.7 versus 66.7 versus 64.4 versus 61.9 versus 64.1 versus 64.2
versus 62.3 versus 61.5 versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3
versus 60.6 versus 60.4 versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1
versus 49.5 versus 49.5 versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0
versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5
versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7
versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5

Bears: 20.6 versus 20.8
20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7
versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6
versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2
versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4
versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0
versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.97% versus 2.966%. Closed over 3% Wednesday, but faded. Bouncing
back and forth the past two weeks just below the 50 day MA, and looks,
frankly, as if TLT wants to break higher. Does not make sense in terms of a
strengthening economy when rates should rise and bond prices should fall.
Nonetheless the bond market has the look it might try to break higher, and
that is a market against a new breakout in the stock market if indeed bonds
do break higher.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.966%
versus 3.006% versus 2.952% versus 2.948% versus 2.968% versus 2.954% versus
2.959% versus 2.975% versus 3.0245% versus 3.00% versus 2.962% versus 2.96%
versus 2.914% versus 2.867% versus 2.83% versus 2.829 versus 2.825% versus
2.781% versus 2.801% versus 2.805% versus 2.775% versus 2.812% versus 2.806%
versus 2.781% versus 2.739% versus 2.714% versus 2.781% versus 2.775% versus
2.854% versus 2.813% versus 2.814% versus 2.881% versus 2.90% versus 2.852%


EUR/USD: 1.19411 versus 1.1913. After 3 weeks of a steep decline, the euro
recovered some ground Wednesday to Friday, though could only manage a bounce
to the 10 day EMA.

Historical: 1.1913 versus 1.18533 versus 1.18672 versus 1.19150 versus
1.19619 versus 1.1983 versus 1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus
1.21291 versus 1.21788 versus 1.2163 versus 1.22232 versus 1.22094 versus
1.22876 versus 1.23464 versus 1.23748 versus 1.23712 versus 1.238532 versus
1.23313 versus 1.23299 versus 1.23720 versus 1.2359 versus 1.2311 versus
1.22812 versus 1.2247 versus 1.2285


USD/JPY: 109.384 versus 109.40. After a rally into May, the dollar is
working laterally below the 200 day SMA. It looks to be consolidating the
move higher to set up for a run at the 200 day.

Historical: 109.40 versus 109.746 versus 109.038 versus 109.022 versus
109.08 versus 109.175 versus 109.628 versus 109.91 versus 109.354 versus
109.051 versus 109.28 versus 109.373 versus 108.894 versus 108.728 versus
107.645 versus 107.404 versus 107.409 versus 107.027 versus 107.010 versus
107.362 versus 107.267 versus 106.882 versus 106.873 versus 107.09 versus
107.16 versus 106.939 versus 107.11 versus 106.816 versus 106.797 versus
105.901 versus 106.286 versus 106.81 versus 105.397 versus 105.473 versus
104.789 versus 104.829 versus 105.892 versus 106.478 versus 105.945 versus
105.946


Oil: 70.70, -0.66. Faded Friday after a week of continued upside along the
10 day EMA.


Gold: 1320.70, -1.60. Gold held the 200 day SMA the past 2 weeks, bounced
sharply Thursday. Friday a modest loss but gold is holding support and
setting up a bounce upside.


MONDAY

The stock indices made good on the reversals off support, moving through
near resistance last week with RUTX indeed already bumping at the prior
all-time highs. The pause Friday was logical as previously noted, and a
couple of days rest would work to rejuvenate the move and help it continue.

There was some better volume and some better breadth while leadership is
relatively solid. Thus we anticipate more upside and look to pick up more
solid plays as they present themselves.

As is usually the case with good moves, you cannot enter all the positions
you wanted. They either creep higher on low trade or they gap and rally
away from you. Or they don't move at all. The cool thing about continuing
moves is you get a second chance at those when they test the initial break.

Thus, after a bit more rest to start the week, when stocks resume the move
we want to let the current positions ride and then when new stocks break
higher, as long as the internals remain improved, pick up new positions.

Have a great weekend!

End part 1
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Saturday, May 05, 2018

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 5-5-18

* * * *
5/5/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: BABA; CDXS
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- Stock indices build on the Thursday reversal, posting very nice percentage
gains on virtually no volume. Another rally with no teeth?
- Some nice leaders post good moves. Others we are still waiting on.
- Jobs report stronger but misses, and some say that is good because of the
Fed. Really? Still on that?
- Buffett bought AAPL in Q1, lets it 'slip' on a CNBC interview, lemmings
rush to follow the 'teacher.' Yes, he taught them a lesson, but they are
not getting it.
- Indices did what they needed to do at support. Now can some volume
actually show up to make these patterns work instead of fizzle?

Those Thursday doji at key support levels for the index bases led to a nice
price advance Friday as the indices try to make good on holding support and
holding their bases. Solid percentage gains for the indices as they
launched higher off support, though volume came in very, very light for the
session. Oh great, here we go again: upside accompanied by no volume.

SP500 33.69, 1.28%
NASDAQ 121.47, 1.71%
DJ30 332.36, 1.39%
SP400 1.33%
RUTX 1.23%
SOX 2.31%
NASDAQ 100 1.89%

VOLUME: NYSE -10%; NASDAQ -13%. Ah yes, once again volume declines,
precipitously and below average as stocks rallied. Again volume is missing
on the upside.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE +3:1, NASDAQ +2.7:1. Very solid breadth as the
entire market rallied. Buying across the board, but not many buyers.

Remember, the indices are in a basing process with SP500, DJ30, SP400 in
triangles, NASDAQ in a 3+ month trading range but still holding a 2+ year
trendline, while SOX and RUTX are in ranges as well. All tested lows or
trendlines in their bases and Friday all started to bounce. You WANT to see
better volume on the upside to give even the bounces some credibility as
well as show continuing accumulation, something that has to occur in a base
or else when it comes time to breakout all it does is jump up, fizzle, and
then fall.

Thus, the lack of volume keeps this in a bounce classification, and frankly
you have to see what happens Monday to see if there is something there other
than a Friday short squeeze. Yes, there are plenty of indications it is not
just a short squeeze, e.g. holding support, good patterns, decent earnings
(okay, good earnings), and it could make good on the volume later. Why?
Because if this is a real move there is not just one entry. If they are
still working we can move in with more positions Monday, and again when they
test the initial move off the support at the bottom of the patterns and
ranges.

A bit of a test that holds is a good entry point for more positions as many
stocks gapped higher Friday. If the move was on solid volume in a stock in
a good pattern, you can still enter if the upside continues. Weaker volume,
not so interested.

NEWS/ECONOMY

What had stocks so ginned up they rallied on no volume? Buffett let 'slip'
Berkshire had acquired 75M AAPL shares in Q1. Of course everyone rushed in;
if Warren bought they should buy. So, Buffett once again, after he took his
position, let out that he had done so, knowing all of the lemmings would
rush to follow and drive up the value of his shares. Worked like a charm.
They will never learn that Buffett, the 'investor, teacher, icon' as CNBC's
special calls him, is simply playing by his book just as Trump plays by his
book. The willing dupes were there yet again, and the entire market was up
in part because of Buffett's 'belief in America.'


Seeing through the Mueller investigation? It probably did not hurt that the
judge overseeing the Mueller case against Mr. Manafort is considering
dismissing the charges altogether, questioning Mueller's areas of
investigation. "I don't see how this indictment has anything to do with
anything the special prosecutor is authorized to investigate," noted the
judge. Could it be the courts are going to stand up to the unending
nonsense on this matter when so many other clearly prosecutable actions have
taken place before any of the areas under investigation were claimed to have
occurred? The market perhaps took some heart in the possibility of the
courts curtailing this. Perhaps.


Jobs Report not so good and thus was quite good.

With the Fed on hiking trail there is still the idea that economic weakness
is goodness. Futures bounced on thoughts, uttered by the CNBC morning
blabbermouth (man I miss Mark Haynes), that Fed Chair Powell should consider
perhaps 3 rate hikes in 2018 were unnecessary. There you have it: no need
for as many rate hikes.

Thus, a jobs report that was not that strong was a reason to at least not
sell stocks. When the bell rang, after falling to the open stocks jumped
upside. Jobs miss, Fed should reduce hikes, Buffett buying AAPL (back in
Q1 -- think he is buying now that he let everyone else know?). On Friday
that was reason to buy.

The April jobs report, however, was a miss though the jobs mix continues
MUCH improved over the Obama years that were dominated by government,
restaurant and bar hiring, and retail hiring.

Jobs: 164K vs 190K exp vs 132K prior (from 103K)

Unemployment 3.9 vs 4.0 ex vs 4.1 March. Lowest since 12/2000

Wages: 0.15% vs 0.2% expected. 2.6% year/year. Not that great.

U6: 7.8% (lowest since 12/2001)

Participation: 62.8%. Not rising this month, unable to move past that 63%
level.

Labor force: -236K and thus the 3.9% unemployment rate

Workweek: still at 34.5

Where the Jobs are:

Prof/Business: 54K
Manufacturing: 24K
Construction: 17K
Healthcare: 24K
Mining: 8K
Information: 7K
Government: -10K
Wholesale trade: -10K

Again, a decent job mix once more, but not an overall strong report. But
again, perhaps the Fed will go easy on the hikes? Hmm. Seemed to work for
Friday as one of the catalysts upside off the support.


THE MARKET

New break higher off of support in the patterns or at the trendlines as the
case may be. No volume, good breadth, good initial move. Now we see if
they can hold the moves.

CHARTS

SOX: Biggest move so starting here. Also, they were the most oversold
after the 8 week selloff from the March high. Two weeks at the 200 day SMA
then a big bounce Friday. Tried this a week before and didn't even last a
session as the gap higher was sold. Not bad in terms of the bounce. The
overall pattern is still lacking as SOX formed a head and shoulders and
broke lower. As is often the case in these patterns, it has not broken
down. Lots of rebounding chips the past 1 to 3 sessions, but a lot are just
rebounds that turned higher from the teeth of selling. Thus, we see if
chips can show the right stuff.

NASDAQ: Bouncing off the trendline from early 2016 after the Thursday doji
at the level on good volume. Made it to the 50 day SMA, closing just over
that level. Volume backed off to below average. Perhaps the reversal was
enough. In any event, held the trendline as it did two weeks back, bouncing
again. This time NASDAQ needs to put some distance on the trendline, unlike
the last attempt in the first two weeks of April.

SP500: Triangle was getting to the point so to speak, where it would show
its break higher or break lower. Nice doji reversal Thursday, nice solid
upside break and rally Friday to the 50 day EMA. That puts it about halfway
to the upper trendline in the 3+ month triangle. Volume needs to come in
because on both Thursday and Friday it was nowhere as the move started. On
the breakout at 2700ish (closed at 2663) that is when it really needs to
show the volume.

DJ30: Same action as SP500, i.e. doji Thursday at the 200 day SMA followed
by a break higher Friday. DJ30 is still below the 50 day MA's at 24,500 and
the upper trendline in its triangle at 24,450. No volume here either, but
again, on the breakout that is where you want to see it.

RUTX: Surged back up through the 50 day MA's, helping that NYSE 3:1
breadth. Only index that did not come close to the 200 day SMA on the April
selling. Small caps showing relative strength is not a bad indication for
the economy and the market. Even as the economy moves through a slow patch.
If the small caps rally, that says well for the slow patch ending and the
economy to pick back up.

SP400: After the Thursday doji tapping right at the 200 day SMA on the low,
the midcaps rallied through the 50 day MA's as well. Already nearing the
upper trendline of the 3+ month triangle, and as with the other indices we
are watching to see the volume to see if it comes back in on the break
higher.


LEADERSHIP

Retail: Some nice patterns. After pulling back some, HD, COST are starting
to rebound. TSCO tested and looks good. RH jumped to a higher recovery
high on good volume. BBY has a very interesting pattern. TJX is testing the
50 day MA's. Definitely some good-looking possibilities.

Software: Moving up again. FFIV was off a bit Friday but had a great week.
GLUU exploded higher for a third session. RHT broke to a higher high Friday
after testing the 10 day EMA on the week. CRM showed good volume finally as
it works up the 10 day EMA. MSFT trying to come up off the 50 day MA but
not much volume. DATA tested after the big upside breakaway gap Thursday on
its earnings. Still a good group.

Oil: Remains looking solid in the patterns. MRO did make the break
Thursday, adding to it Friday. HAL in a nice doji test of the 10 day EMA in
a handle. SLB looks great in its handle. DO looks as if it might come back
around to a buy. PTEN had a decent week to the upside. SPN in a nice
handle.

China: BABA shot higher on tremendous volume on very good earnings. BIDU is
in a weeklong lateral gap test. HTHT jumped up off a 50 day MA test. Not
bad. WUBA looks good off its 10 day EMA test.

Semiconductors: Some started rallying earlier this week and continued
through Friday, e.g. SLAB, QRVO. Others are setting up interesting
patterns, e.g. AAOI, AMD. LRCX and MU are interesting as well. Others are
still struggling, e.g. MXWL, XLNX. Important group, good to see some
improving.

Drugs/Healthcare: SRPT exploded higher Friday out of a 2 month triangle.
IMMU in a nice test. VRX has tested and looks good to move higher. EXAS
looks good. Mixed but good sector.

Misc: FLIR surging off a test post breakout. PCTY gapping to a new high on
volume.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +332.36 points (+1.39%) to close at 24262.51

Nasdaq
Stats: +121.47 points (+1.71%) to close at 7209.62
Volume: 2.02B (-12.87%)

Up Volume: 1.6B (+595.867M)
Down Volume: 393.13M (-866.107M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.71 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.79 to 1

New Highs: 93 (+32)
New Lows: 50 (-32)

S&P
Stats: +33.69 points (+1.28%) to close at 2663.42
NYSE Volume: 765.7M (-10.31%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.4 to 1

New Highs: 76 (+21)
New Lows: 65 (-56)


SENTIMENT

VIX: 14.77; -1.13
VXN: 18.41; -1.24
VXO: 15.26; -1.24

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; -0.06


Bulls and Bears:

Bulls bounced back 4.5 points after a precipitous decline. They are falling
hard, bouncing with quick sharp bounces, then falling again. Very similar to
the stock market action. Bears were lower but they are holding the bounce
higher into the 19's.

Bulls: 48.0 versus 43.6

Bears: 19.6 versus 19.8

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 48.0 versus 43.6
43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1
versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00 versus 64.7 versus 66.7
versus 64.4 versus 61.9 versus 64.1 versus 64.2 versus 62.3 versus 61.5
versus 63.5 versus 64.4 versus 63.5 versus 62.3 versus 60.6 versus 60.4
versus 57.5 versus 54.3 versus 50.5 versus 47.1 versus 49.5 versus 49.5
versus 48.1 versus 50.5 versus 57.5 versus 60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8
versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8
versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7
versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5

Bears: 19.6 versus 19.8
19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4
versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7
versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1
versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2
versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.952% versus 2.948%. Bonds moved up to test the 50 day MA on the
week and closed just below that level Friday. Double bottom? About to find
out in how they react at the 50 day MA's.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.948%
versus 2.968% versus 2.954% versus 2.959% versus 2.975% versus 3.0245%
versus 3.00% versus 2.962% versus 2.96% versus 2.914% versus 2.867% versus
2.83% versus 2.829 versus 2.825% versus 2.781% versus 2.801% versus 2.805%
versus 2.775% versus 2.812% versus 2.806% versus 2.781% versus 2.739% versus
2.714% versus 2.781% versus 2.775% versus 2.854% versus 2.813% versus 2.814%
versus 2.881% versus 2.90% versus 2.852%


EUR/USD: 1.19619 versus 1.1983. Euro dropped hard on the week through the
200 day SMA, trying to set up a bounce to test that break lower.

Historical: 1.1983 versus 1.1978 versus 1.19896 versus 1.20741 versus
1.21291 versus 1.21788 versus 1.2163 versus 1.22232 versus 1.22094 versus
1.22876 versus 1.23464 versus 1.23748 versus 1.23712 versus 1.238532 versus
1.23313 versus 1.23299 versus 1.23720 versus 1.2359 versus 1.2311 versus
1.22812 versus 1.2247 versus 1.2285 versus 1.22698 versus 1.23073 versus
1.23234 versus 1.2406 versus 1.24494 versus 1.2351 versus 1.23301 versus
1.23467 versus 1.22478 versus 1.2342 versus 1.2287 versus 1.2304 versus
1.23782 versus 1.2392 versus 1.23412 versus 1.2305 versus 1.2305 versus
1.24017 versus 1.2411 versus 1.2344 versus 1.23187 versus 1.22822 versus
1.21894


USD/JPY: 109.08 versus 109.175. Dollar rallied on the week, tested
Thursday and Friday to the 20 day EMA, showing a doji. Looks as if it is
testing to size up the 200 day SMA just overhead at 110.38.

Historical: 109.175 versus 109.628 versus 109.91 versus 109.354 versus
109.051 versus 109.28 versus 109.373 versus 108.894 versus 108.728 versus
107.645 versus 107.404 versus 107.409 versus 107.027 versus 107.010 versus
107.362 versus 107.267 versus 106.882 versus 106.873 versus 107.09 versus
107.16 versus 106.939 versus 107.11 versus 106.816 versus 106.797 versus
105.901 versus 106.286 versus 106.81 versus 105.397 versus 105.473 versus
104.789 versus 104.829 versus 105.892 versus 106.478 versus 105.945 versus
105.946


Oil: 69.72, +1.29. Oil broke to a higher rally high Friday.


Gold: 1314.70, +2.00. Fell to the 200 day SMA on the week, managed an ever
so slight bounce to end the week.

End part 1
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