Sunday, August 13, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 8-12-17

* * * *
8/12/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: NFLX

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
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interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Friday sees some relief though low volume and narrow breadth as usual.
- RUTX, SP400 already at the 200 day SMA, first time since 11/16. Loss
leaders become bounce leaders?
- SP500, NASDAQ, SOX bounce back to resistance.
- Seen this setup before and stocks rallied. Is it different this time?
- Next move is in the algorithms' hands
- Trump tells China he his ordering an investigation into Chinese trade
practices.

Is it over yet? Safe to come out? It depends. On what you consider safe.

After the impressive Thursday declines there was a rebound. Of sorts.
Hardly commensurate with the selloff, but the selling did not continue
Friday.

SP500 3.11, 0.13%
NASDAQ 39.69, 0.64%
DJ30 14.31, 0.07%
SP400 0.19%
RUTX 0.12%
SOX 0.58%
NASDAQ 100 0.75%

VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -18%. Just like volume to run out when stocks try
to recover from a rout. NYSE slid back to lower below average while NASDAQ
gave up an above average volume selling session, slipping back below average
on the upside. Obviously no renewed upside buying strength.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.2:1, NASDAQ 1.1:1. A powerhouse advance. NASDAQ
100 led the move higher as the big names garnered what few upside moves
there were.


THE MARKET

The stocks indices, again, fall into two categories. Okay, with the DJ30
thrown in it is three categories. It is just that the roles have changed.

Category 1: The Dow

DJ30: This index is in another world from the other indices. Sure, it sold
last week, but it was abnormally normal in its orderly test of an impressive
string of consecutive new highs. Holding at the 20 day EMA Thursday after
the selloff, again with a doji at the 20 day. Juxtaposed to the other
indices, quite abnormally normal.


Category 2: SP500, NASDAQ, SOX

This category contains indices that broke hard lower, broke next support,
and as of Friday are still problematic.

SP500: After spending three weeks riding along the 2009 upper channel line
SP500 tested. Then Thursday it dove lower, breaking the 50 day MA's.
Higher but not huge volume. Not even above average. It was not a massive
selloff. There was more downside volume in mid-May on that break of the 50
day MA's, but we all know that bounced right back after closing for a second
session below the 50 day MA. What am I saying? This is nothing that hasn't
been seen and overcome before. The selling was ugly, just as it was in May.
The question remains: will the algorithms buy on this dip or will they keep
selling the SP500 new high that reversed ahead of the Thursday selloff.
That said, the Friday bounce was NOT strong and sets up the potential to
fail at the 50 day MA and continue lower.

NASDAQ: After spending over a week working laterally over the 20 day EMA
and holding the June prior high, NASDAQ broke higher Tuesday but reversed.
Thursday it too dove below the 50 day MA's. It also broke the early June
prior high. Friday it recovered some ground but closed below the 50 day
MA's. Unlike SP500, NASDAQ volume jumped above average on the selling.
Still not huge trade, but above average. As with SP500, we have seen this
move before. NASDAQ also ripped lower in mid-May on volume but rebounded.
In June it broke the 50 day MA. It recovered to higher highs each time.
Indeed, NASDAQ can still give some ground and hold its uptrend. Sure
Thursday was ugly, but been there before and lived to tell about it. As with
SP500, the question is will the algorithms buy this dip or keep selling that
last new all-time high? That said, NASDAQ is just like SP500, and the
Friday rebound sets up a fade.

SOX: SOX could almost be in a category of its own. It never made a higher
high on the last rally before rolling over. It came back to the 50 day EMA,
looked as if it might form an inverted head and shoulders. Then it broke
lower Thursday, sold more Friday, then recovered a bit of ground to
positive. SOX, yes, CAN hold here and continue higher, it just doesn't look
very good. SOX is always a market key as it tends to forecast the overall
market moves. When it broke the possible inverted head and shoulders, that
was a mark against the uptrend.


Category 3: SP400, RUTX

These two indices were leaders -- in the selling.

SP400: Broke the 50 day MA's to start August, moved laterally, then plunged
Wednesday to Thursday. Gapped down to the 200 day SMA Friday, rebounded to
positive. A clear trend break, breaking the December 2016 to August 2017
trend. The last time SP400 visited the 200 day was in November 2016. It
held. Thus, SP400 may have shifted from downside market leader to ready to
help lead a bounce upside.

RUTX: Same action as SP400, working laterally below the 50 day MA after
breaking that level to start August, then bombing lower to the 200 day SMA
on the Friday open. RUTX bounced off the 200 day and closed with a modest
gain and a doji. That doji suggests it is ready for a relief bounce. Last
time at the 200 day SMA: November 2016. As with SP400, ready to turn from a
loss leader to a new upside leader?


IN SUM, the market was bifurcated as the small and midcaps broke support.
The other indices, sans DJ30, caught down to those two indices. Now those
two loss leaders are at the 200 day SMA and, just as they did in November
2016, can rebound in some more upside and perhaps lead a move higher.
Stranger things have happened of course, particularly in this Fed and plunge
protection dominated market. The swing vote, the key vote, is still the
algorithms and whether they buy the dip or just keep selling. Volume is not
that heavy on this drop so it does not look that the algorithms all threw in
to the downside.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +14.31 points (+0.07%) to close at 21858.32

Nasdaq
Stats: +39.68 points (+0.64%) to close at 6256.56
Volume: 1.8B (-18.18%)

Up Volume: 1.15B (+740.17M)
Down Volume: 625.77M (-1.154B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.1 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.86 to 1

New Highs: 27 (-5)
New Lows: 130 (-18)

S&P
Stats: +3.11 points (+0.13%) to close at 2441.32
NYSE Volume: 790.6M (-7.98%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.15 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 6.47 to 1

New Highs: 17 (-22)
New Lows: 157 (+38)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

Interesting week as more very intelligent money managers turn bearish.
Dennis Gartman cited those very intelligent people as he made the prediction
that the long bull run for stocks is over. He said he realized what kind of
damage such a call, if incorrect, could do to an 'already damaged'
reputation, but he just feels compelled to do it.

I am reminded of a gambler who has squandered most of his fortune, but makes
one last bet with his remaining capital to make that one big score. If
correct, he lives to gamble another day. If not, it is over.

So, more negative sentiment from the big names, though Gartman has lost big
name status as he has sadly made multiple wrong calls on stocks, oil, and
other commodities over the past year or two. He truly appears to have just
flip-flopped as the markets sold then rebounded, sold then rebounded. The
problem is you have to recognize you can and will be wrong. You must
recognize you don't know with any certainty at all what the market will do.
You study the patterns, the moves, the trends, and distill down to the
possible moves at any given point. Sometimes there are clear inflection
points, e.g. SP400 and RUTX at the 200 day SMA right now. Then, you put
yourself in position to play what appear to be the high probability plays,
and importantly, the high profitability plays, up and down, at that time.
Then when the moves are made, you play them.

Gartman really needs to be right this time because he has lost sight of what
he really knows and does not know and thus made 'certainty' calls for market
direction. When those go wrong, it is death. And sadly for him, the
commentary to his Friday announcement about the bear market's end brought
out the morbid humor. "He has given up on prognosticating and has decided
to become Captain Obvious." "How can you stake something you no longer
have?" "At this point one has to wonder if Gartman's own family fades his
market calls." The market is, as always, ruthless.

VIX: 15.51; -0.53
VXN: 17.77; -1.29
VXO: 12.87; -0.99

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; +0.04


Bulls and Bears: The two week fade appears to have caught up with some of
the bulls as the number fell below 60 for the first time in three weeks.
Reached levels that call for more serious corrections. Perhaps NASDAQ and
SP500 are trying, but will the Powers let them fall?

Bulls: 57.5 versus 60.0

Bears: 17.0 versus 16.2

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 57.5 versus 60.0
60.0 versus 60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5
versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7
versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5
versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 17.0 versus 16.2
16.2 versus 16.5 versus 16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3
versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9
versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75
versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6
versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.191% versus 2.201%. Bonds are trying to break higher to take on
the June high.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.201
versus 2.246% versus 2.262% versus 2.257% versus 2.264% versus 2.221% versus
2.266% versus 2.253% versus 2.296% versus 2.291% versus 2.303% versus 2.287%
versus 2.330% versus 2.255% versus 2.241% versus 2.270% versus 2.261% versus
2.318% versus 2.331% versus 2.346% versus 2.316% versus 2.361% versus 2.375%
versus 2.375% versus 2.368% versus 2.34% versus 2.304% versus 2.268% versus
2.20% versus 2.140% versus 2.140% versus 2.148%


EUR/USD: 1.18216 versus 1.17652. Euro bounces up off support, ready to
rally some more.

Historical: 1.17652 versus 1.17596 versus 1.17619 versus 1.17975 versus
1.1774 versus 1.18718 versus 1.18457 versus 1.18072 versus 1.18281 versus
1.18293 versus 1.1683 versus 1.17419 versus 1.1646 versus 1.1637 versus
1.16640 versus 1.16271 versus 1.15280 versus 1.15549 versus 1.14735 versus
1.14672 versus 1.13986 versus 1.14335 versus 1.14682 versus 1.13964 versus
1.14010 versus 1.14220 versus 1.13508 versus 1.13710 versus 1.13510 versus
1.14208 versus 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus
1.11928 versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus
1.11968 versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965


USD/JPY: 109.183 versus 109.177. Trying to bounce off the selloff, but in a
sharp downtrend.

Historical: 109.177 versus 110.03 versus 109.09 versus 110.09 versus
110.757 versus 110.689 versus 109.963 versus 110.717 versus 110.368 versus
110.28 versus 110.704 versus 111.07 versus 111.166 versus 111.897 versus
111.176 versus 111.128 versus 111.863 versus 111.89 versus 112.096 versus
112.582 versus 112.536 versus 113.314 versus 113.152 versus 113.929 versus
114.063 versus 113.913 versus 113.126 versus 113.253 versus 113.270 versus
112.413 versus 111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus
111.299 versus 111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus
110.873 versus 110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97


Oil: 48.82, +0.23. Oil faded to test the 20 day EMA to end the week,
showing a nice doji with tail. Still an excellent setup for the upside.
Needs something to trigger it.


Gold: 1294.00, +3.90. Gold is now bumping the April and June highs.



THIS WEEK

Given the index setups, this could actually be a week that decides some
direction. As noted earlier, the volume was not such that would indicate
the algorithms decided it was time to dump all stocks in a sell the rally
move.

Therefore, as we are not, as some seem to believe they are, omniscient with
what the self-thinking algos are going to do, we just prep for what can
happen off this selling. Nothing new there regardless whether algos, fund
managers, pension managers, etc. are making the investing decisions. There
are some good upside plays to make us money if the bids return, and some
downside for sure if they bids do not return.

That raises a very interesting point. When ETF's started to gain
popularity, I believed that was the start of the destruction of the markets.
Not that ETF's were the problem themselves, they were just part of the
preparation for market demise. They allow lazy investing, and the irony is,
they do not reflect the dollar for dollar moves of the stocks that comprise
the ETF. That is up to the ETF management, within certain limits of course.

As ETF's grew in popularity, you started to see market distorting movements.
Stocks would move intraday, but the ETF's would not follow. Then, in the
last hour, large index price moves occurred as the ETF's were brought more
in line with the days' trading action.

Now the next step is in place: algorithms running some very large funds and
thus lots of money, coupled with smaller robot advisors that tell investors
what ETF's to place their money. Then it is all turned over to the
machines. People playing the ETF game get unmercifully whipsawed as they
are rebalanced in sudden moves. It is like a mini expiration session every
session.

If you pay attention to how the algos trade you, how they accumulate shares,
etc., you recognize the tracks just as always, regardless of who manages the
money. That is why the false breakdown proved to be such a good entry for
us: program trades and algos were taught to buy those, and they have
dutifully done so for years. Thus, what does the current situation on
NASDAQ, SP500, and SOX show? Another break of support that could be a false
break.

In any event, this is going to lead to the destruction of any real
price-finding market. When the machines take over most of the action, that
will be the day the market ceases to reflect what markets have always shown,
e.g. the belief of investors as to the economic future, and will instead
reflect only the reactions of each algorithm and program to the headlines
that appear in the news ticker.

That puts a whole new angle on 'fake news' does it not? You have seen how a
planned rumor can move a stock, even the market. Just think what happens
when hundreds, even thousands, of headline-reading programs react to each
headline, and then what happens when the ETF's are then 'balanced' at the
end of the session to reflect the latest headlines? Destruction of markets.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6256.56

Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 6263
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
6461 is the June 2017 prior all-time high

Support:
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 2016 trendline at 6141
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
The 200 day SMA at 5838
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point


S&P 500: Closed at 2441.32

Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 2446
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2487 is the upper channel line from the March 2009 uptrend channel

Support:
2439 is the early June all-time closing high
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 2339
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 21,858.32

Resistance:
21,681is the July prior all-time high
22,179 is the August 2017 all-time high

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 21,836
The 50 day EMA at 21,574
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
The 200 day SMA at 20,484
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
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Saturday, August 05, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 8-5-17

* * * *
8/5/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: AAOI; LITE

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEWS/ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Jobs report beats, shows some decent improvement (though still not that
great), market goes nowhere. Again.
- Another piece of good news cannot break the indices higher, but they also
don't break lower and remain in position to bounce.
- Jobs market will never change with these policies in place.
- Plenty of bulls, lots of expert bears, but no one saying a correction is
imminent. Does that mean it is?
- Indices in position, good leadership remains as does the Fed. Have to
respect that.

Futures were up a bit before the July Jobs Report. They were up a bit after
the July Jobs Report. By the end of the session the stock indices were up a
bit. DJ30 put in yet another new high. SP500 continued to walk laterally
on the 10 day EMA and just below the 2009 upper channel line. NASDAQ and
SOX show doji over the 50 day EMA. SP400 and RUTX bounced to test the break
below the 50 day MA, below some resistance but still in the ballpark to hold
and resume the upside. In position, they just couldn't make the move even
after a pretty solid jobs report, strong AAPL earnings, and of course, a
continued benevolent Federal Reserve.

SP500 4.67, 0.19%
NASDAQ 11.22, 0.18%
DJ30 66.71, 0.30%
SP400 0.24%
RUTX 0.50%$
SOX 0.06%
NASDAQ 100 0.15%

The close looks better than it was 10 minutes before the close. SOX was
negative, SP500 was flirting with negative -- then a late bid bounced things
to a better finishing look.

VOLUME: NYSE -6%; NASDAQ -10%. Upside session volume failure with both
NYSE and NASDAQ dropping below average. Even with a jobs report. But, it
was a Friday in late summer and volume can be lower.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.3:1; NASDAQ 1.4:1. About in line with lackluster
gains.

It was a do nothing session in terms of overall movement and in terms of
altering the index patterns of the past 1 to 2 weeks.. Sometimes, however,
doing nothing can be the better option, particularly on a Friday after some
downside weeks.

Specifically, SP500, NASDAQ, and SOX are in very good position to start a
new upside leg. SOX is showing a doji at the 50 day EMA. NASDAQ a doji at
the 20 day EMA as it sits on top of the June prior high. SP500 is still
below its 2009 upper channel line, riding the 10 day EMA. A good
consolidation of the last highs, a nice quiet test.

SP400 and RUTX are not as neat and tidy, but they are at least holding near
the 50 day MA after breaking them Thursday. Not perfect but if the other
indices move up, they will likely follow. Likely. The economic data,
July's Jobs Report notwithstanding, is not good. ISM Services managed to
hold expansion territory, but dropped to the lowest in a year. Services led
the expansion. That puts it more in perspective. Then there are June's
Factory Orders that were all Boeing. Without those planes, orders were
negative. Capex investment was flat. Small and midcaps are domestically
economically sensitive. Thus it is not surprising their patterns have sold
more and harder than the large cap indices.

Leadership remains good enough. AAPL, FB and even NFLX are solid enough.
The financials are hanging in. China stocks ditto. Software had a good
week on some solid earnings. Large drugs and biotechs are good enough.
Large manufacturing, e.g. CAT, HON. After a week or more of selling chips
may be ready to attempt a bounce. It is no surprise the large cap leaders
are in better shape: look at what indices are in better shape.

In sum, the action leaves the non-DJ30 large cap indices in good position to
bounce. Leadership is good enough and after a test others are in position
to rebound. The small and midcaps are weaker but nothing a new general
market bounce cannot overcome.


NEWS/ECONOMY

June Jobs Report beats, is not bad, but it is not great.

The jobs report was stronger than expected across the board: wages, jobs,
participation, and revisions. "A little bit of a pickup" says CNBC's Kelly
Evans, hating the number. Okay, economist Mark Zandi says, after his ADP
report Thursday, the jobs market is in "high gear." The report blows out
anticipated non-farm numbers and CNBC says it is a 'little bit' better.

What is it? It is decent, but it is also likely lagging the economic data
that is sliding lower. Without tax reform, healthcare reform, or some kind
of meaningful reform, the numbers will regress because expectations of
economic increase will temper even more.

Non-Farm Payrolls: 209K vs 175K exp vs 231K June (from 187K)
Averages: 195K jobs last 3 months, 184K/month in 2017

Unemployment Rate: 4.3 vs 4.3 vs 4.4

Wages/earnings: 0.3% vs 0.2%. +2.5% year/year. Same gains as before.

Average Workweek: 34.5 vs 34.5

U-6 (less than full employed though wanting full employment): 8.6% vs 8.6%

Participation: 62.9% vs 62.8%. Workforce +349K, increasing the last 4
months. Some said this was because of increased confidence in the jobs
market. Perhaps, but it also doesn't hurt that the Trump administration
tossed out the Obama changes to what constitutes looking for work in order
to qualify for assistance. No longer is reading the classified ads looking
for work. Nor is bed rest, or taking sick kids to the doctor, signing up
for AA, etc. Looking for work is not actually looking for work, and thus
people must get off the non-working 'work' assistance program.


Employment +345K. Unemployed +4K


The Mix: Where are the jobs and who is getting them?

There is change occurring, and it is without any tax or healthcare reform.
Regulatory reduction and change is helping, one example just being who is
considered looking for work in order to receive assistance.

Structural changes, however, remain and are still occurring as retail has to
adjust on top of all other areas. Retail continues to show weak growth as
retailers shutter stores and try to figure out how to compete with Amazon.
Manufacturing shows solid gains. Those latter are high paying jobs. Some
improvement, but still the same, serious problems.

Part-time: +349K
Full-time: -54K

Food & Beverage (waiters): +53K

Prof/Business services: +49K

Healthcare: +39K

Manufacturing: +16K

Construction: +6K

Retail: +9K


If the job distribution above is not convincing, consider the following
complied by the New York Federal Reserve:

Education distribution of people obtaining jobs growth.

Less than high school education: +0.4% year/year

High School education: +0.9% year/year

College Educated and/or post-graduate degree: -0.2% year/year

This is the year/year trend. The trend lower in college and higher
education has been ongoing.

Consider the following:

The biggest problem according to major tech companies is finding qualified
people to hire. That may or may not be the case (studies show there are
tens of thousands of US educated STEM graduates who cannot find work), but
even if so, look at the jobs per industry distribution above. The economy
is still producing mostly low wage, hourly service jobs and thus most jobs
filled are in those areas.

Just look at the part-time jobs versus fulltime: 349K versus -54K. Even
now we are STILL killing off full-time jobs. The legacy of the ACA
continues as the Senate cowardly fails to act. Hopefully Trump will go
ahead and end insurance subsidies and have the complete failure of the ACA
rapidly come about.

Just look at US Productivity: with so many low-wage, menial jobs dominating
the economy, is there any wonder productivity has collapsed so sharply the
past four years?

Despite more jobs being created, they are the same kind of jobs. The
economy is not morphing into a new small business creating dynamo. Indeed,
we are still killing more businesses than creating, and until the ACA is
repealed as THE major step, then remove most all of the regulations from the
prior 8 years, and then put in meaningful tax reform to get investment in
the US going again (remember, capex is still virtually nonexistent), there
will be no change for most Americans.

Why? The bifurcation in wealth will necessarily continue because the Fed
will have no choice but to continue its low interest rate policies in
attempts to keep the markets afloat -- just as it did after the financial
crisis. No real gains, just inflated financial assets making certain
portions of society wealthier to spend and keep the economy moving. No
money to invest in small businesses to create the next new great jobs, just
keeping the old line of companies alive as well as the few newer companies
that run the communications everyone uses. The result is endless stagnation
and the hope that the debt bubble will not burst.

Greenspan still in denial.

But, according to Allen Greenspan, the Bond bubble is about to burst due to
'abnormally low' rates. Ironic. Greenspan was the main proponent of the
debt-financed economy. Is he now remorseful? No, he still does not
acknowledge his role. He is blaming others for expanding what he started.
That makes perfect sense in our society today: it is always someone else's
fault.


THE MARKET

LEADERSHIP

Tech: Not a bad session. MSFT gapped modestly upside off its test. AAPL
started back up after a brief test of its earnings gap higher. ORCL holds
its 7 week lateral move after gapping upside. Not bad.

Software: Remains solid. DATA adds more upside after its earnings gap.
VMW trying to make the break higher. GLUU continues upside. CALD gapped to
a higher high, faded some but still strong.

Chips: Those that sold back the past 1-2 weeks are trying to set up for a
bounce, e.g. AMAT, LRCX, AMD. SWKS held up longer but then broke and still
dos not look great. XLNX gapped upside Friday, but to a doji below the 10
day EMA on low trade. Not a lot of power. Important group, will see if it
can put in a decent move.

Drugs/biotech: JNJ still solid as is CELG. Large caps okay, small caps
still struggling, e.g. AXGN, IMGN, IMMU.

China stocks: Overall okay but some issues. YY remains strong as does
HTHT, BZUN, SINA, SOHU, BIDU. NTES fell under some pressure. JD looks
great.

Industrials: Large cap industrials were fine. HON continued its run for the
week. CAT bounced off a 10 day EMA test. HOLI, small cap, was not bad with
a bounce off the 20 day EMA.

Financial: WFC dropped hard but closed down just 1%. More fake accounts,
irregularities handling mortgages, and other issues surfaced again. Jerks.
C still edging up the 10 day EMA. BAC jumped off support and scored a nice
gain. JPM gapped but gave back a pretty good part of it. GS put in a solid
break higher on volume.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +66.71 points (+0.3%) to close at 22092.81

Nasdaq
Stats: +11.22 points (+0.18%) to close at 6351.56
Volume: 1.9B (-9.95%)

Up Volume: 925.29M (-29.44M)
Down Volume: 960.76M (-159.24M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.42 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.45 to 1

New Highs: 89 (0)
New Lows: 74 (-9)

S&P
Stats: +4.67 points (+0.19%) to close at 2476.83
NYSE Volume: 785M (-5.64%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.3 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.34 to 1

New Highs: 146 (+24)
New Lows: 51 (-19)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.03; -0.41
VXN: 14.09; -0.6
VXO: 8.9; +0.44

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; -0.01. Second straight session over 1.0.


Bulls and Bears: Bully. Bulls were lower but still at 60, the key level for
corrections. Of course the market has fade a week or two, but that is not
the kind of correction I am talking about. A real correction. We will see.

Bulls: 60.0 versus 60.2

Bears: 16.2 versus 16.5

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 60.0 versus 60.2
60.2 versus 57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus
50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus
58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7
versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7
versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8
versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0
versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7
versus 45.2

Bears: 16.2 versus 16.5
16.5 versus 16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2
versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3
versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3
versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5
versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2
versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.264% versus 2.221%. Modest drop in bonds on the jobs report. For
so strong, bonds were not surging. TLT is holding the 50 day MA, bouncing
off the low.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.221%
versus 2.266% versus 2.253% versus 2.296% versus 2.291% versus 2.303% versus
2.287% versus 2.330% versus 2.255% versus 2.241% versus 2.270% versus 2.261%
versus 2.318% versus 2.331% versus 2.346% versus 2.316% versus 2.361% versus
2.375% versus 2.375% versus 2.368% versus 2.34% versus 2.304% versus 2.268%
versus 2.20% versus 2.140% versus 2.140% versus 2.148% versus 2.165% versus
2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155% versus 2.162% versus 2.209% versus 2.21%
versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176% versus 2.14% versus 2.183% versus
2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20%


EUR/USD: 1.17738 versus 1.18718. Wow, the dollar actually rose against the
euro. Sold to the 10 day EMA, the support it has held the past 5 weeks on
the rally.

Historical: 1.18718 versus 1.18457 versus 1.18072 versus 1.18281 versus
1.18293 versus 1.1683 versus 1.17419 versus 1.1646 versus 1.1637 versus
1.16640 versus 1.16271 versus 1.15280 versus 1.15549 versus 1.14735 versus
1.14672 versus 1.13986 versus 1.14335 versus 1.14682 versus 1.13964 versus
1.14010 versus 1.14220 versus 1.13508 versus 1.13710 versus 1.13510 versus
1.14208 versus 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus
1.11928 versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus
1.11968 versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965


USD/JPY: 110.689 versus 109.963. Dollar bouncing after a three week drop.

Historical: 109.963 versus 110.717 versus 110.368 versus 110.28 versus
110.704 versus 111.07 versus 111.166 versus 111.897 versus 111.176 versus
111.128 versus 111.863 versus 111.89 versus 112.096 versus 112.582 versus
112.536 versus 113.314 versus 113.152 versus 113.929 versus 114.063 versus
113.913 versus 113.126 versus 113.253 versus 113.270 versus 112.413 versus
111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus 111.299 versus
111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus 110.873 versus
110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus 110.334 versus
110.299 versus 109.355


Oil: 49.58, +0.55. Still bumping up against the 200 day SMA as oil forms a
weeklong pennant testing the last break higher.


Gold: 1264.60, -9.80. Faded to the 10 day EMA in a 3 session pullback
testing the 3 week run off the May low.


MONDAY

NASDAQ, SP500, SOX are all snuggled against near support after just over a
week of a lateral move or a pullback. Not bad positioning, and there is
still leadership to that could throw in upside and break the indices higher
off support.

At the same time the good earnings news could not do that trick. AAPL
'rescued' the market but the indices sat on support. The jobs report was
solid enough but not too great, and the indices sat on support. They did
not break lower, but good news did not break them higher. Perhaps they were
just ignoring the market, doing what they needed to do. Perhaps.

Regardless of how they got there and why they stayed, those key indices are
at support and in position to rally. Now we see if they do.

The interesting aspect: bulls are at 60 for the second week. In early 2017,
bulls were over 60 for 7 weeks. No serious selloff resulted, an aberration
for the market and this indicator. Oh they tried to sell off, and several
times the indices made moves that historically would market a rollover.
Yet, bids came back in and thwarted the selling pressure and the indices
recovered. Magic. Ready to roll over, rolling over, then caught and
supported.

There is also Jim Paulson who said Friday that we can do all we want
"without aggravating inflation and interest rates." Moreover, he added, "if
that's going to continue, I think the bull market could continue forever."
Forever. Indeed.

Back to the interesting aspect. The other one. Even as bulls move over 60
and we see calls for unending bull markets (as I recall some saying in 1998
just before the Dow crashed), more and more expert money managers call for a
serious market correction. Interactive Brokers raised its margin
requirements on trades on volatility products. Friday another joined in.
BAC's Michael Hartnett, citing a euphoric bull/bear level, said a "little
more meaningful" correction, "not your average correction," is coming in the
fall. Still, he says it is not time to move out of equities just yet.

Whew. So this is not THE pullback that leads to that selloff. Gee, it
seems everyone, EVEN THE BEARS, don't think the correction is nigh. Maybe
they are in the know, but the fact that everyone says it is coming but not
yet means they don't have a clue as to the when. History says when everyone
says it isn't happening is when it happens. The experts rarely hit the nail
on the head. Anyone can say a correction is coming because of any number of
factors. We even say that, but at least we are not so arrogant (stupid?) to
say we know when.

So, very bullish, experts cautious, but not THAT cautious just yet. That
just means beware. The indices are in a position where they could bounce,
they just have to show they can do it. As there are still stocks that are
in position to rally as well, you have to be ready for that to happen.

Have a great weekend.



SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6351.56

Resistance:
6461 is the June 2017 prior all-time high

Support:
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
The 20 day EMA at 6333
6300 is the mid-June interim high
The 50 day EMA at 6252
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 2016 trendline at 6117
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
The 200 day SMA at 5812
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower


S&P 500: Closed at 2476.83

Resistance:
2484 is the upper channel line from the March 2009 uptrend channel

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2465
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
The 50 day EMA at 2443
2439 is the early June all-time closing high
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
The 200 day SMA at 2331
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 22,092.81

Resistance:

Support:
The 10 day EMA at 21,887
21,681is the July prior all-time high
The 20 day EMA at 21,746
The 50 day EMA at 21,482
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
The 200 day SMA at 20,388
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
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Sunday, July 30, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-29-17

* * * *
7/29/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

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Stop alerts: None issued

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Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks calm down after the Thursday action but still sluggish, hanging
onto support.
- Dow continues higher unfazed while the other indices decently save
themselves.
- Healthcare goes down in defeat. Now time to get serious and cut the
insurance company payoffs.
- Bulls top 60, indicating an overexcited market, but the rollover goalie is
still there to save the day.
- A bit more volatile, but the patterns remain solid for many leading
groups.
- Rotation returned on the week, and thus far more of the zero sum type.

The summer games continue with national USATF and AAU this weekend and into
next week. We are still on the go as my son jumps in nationals. As a result
the reports will be pared down some, i.e. no video. I appreciate your
understanding during this crunch time when all the training comes to bear.
Thank you!

Thursday the stock indices turned choppy with SP400 and NASDAQ still trying
to spit the bit on new highs. With this market's track record for giving up
new highs as fast as they are hit, that was worth some worry. Some, but
perhaps not a lot: even when they reversed sharply from new highs, the
selling was not long-lived as the powers that be do not want and indeed
cannot afford a prolonged market selloff.

Friday things calmed down a bit, but just a bit. All but the Dow lost
ground, but a half percent on SP400 was the largest decline. Not bad
considering AMZN missed on its earnings, though there were not many viewing
the miss as anything deeply nefarious about AMZN's prospects. The market
overall was down, but certainly not in a full dive after AMZN's results.

SP500 -3.32, -0.13%
NASDAQ -7.51, -0.12%
DJ30 33.76, +0.15%
SP400 -0.49%
RUTX -0.30%
SOX -0.39%

The indices all gapped lower, but DJ30 turned positive. The others opened,
sold farther, then managed varying degrees of recovery.

SP400 showed the most wear and tear, and not surprisingly it is one of the
indices that appears to have a real aversion to new highs over the past many
months. It does not completely roll over after a new high -- the PPT and
Fed help avoid that -- but it does tend to hit the highs only to
significantly jolt downside. After rallying off the low Thursday SP400
could not capitalize on the bounce, instead gapping lower again Friday. It
managed a small recovery, but still closed below the 20 day EMA as well as
the June prior recovery high. Last selling the 50 day MA held as support
and that level may come into play again.

RUTX has sold 3 sessions the same as SP400, but RUTX is very contained,
showing a doji with tail over the 20 day EMA. It is also holding over its
June prior high. This looks more like a rally to a new high being tested.
Likely if RUTX manages a good bounce off this test, SP400 can do likewise.

NASDAQ: Thursday NASDAQ gapped to a new high an then unceremoniously
reversed. A bounce off the 20 day EMA closed it over the 10 day and out of
harm's way, but Friday NASDAQ gapped lower again. Managed to recover to
basically flat, even with the AMZN earnings issues. That leaves NASDAQ
sitting on the June high as well. Got a bit squirrely around the new high,
but that is also somewhat par for the course in these rallies.

SOX: Reversed Thursday at the recent lower highs. Managed to hold the 20
day EMA and showed a doji Friday right on the 20 day. Not leading the way
for certain, but it is holding its own and trying to perhaps build an
inverted head and shoulders.

SP500 also bucked some at a new high, but it is far from reversing,
recovering nicely Thursday off the intraday weakness to hold the 10 day EMA
and holding that level again Friday on light trade. Nothing really out of
the norm here.

DJ30 is the index that shows the most comfort with success, hitting
successive higher highs Wednesday through Friday. Decent volume as well.
Not great, but it was very solid Thursday.


LEADERSHIP

Financial: Post-Yellen the banks suffered but the pullbacks have been
contained, at least for the banks. Now they are showing some good setups,
e.g. C, BAC.

China stocks: A bit volatile Thursday, but hung on and bounced, e.g. NTES,
BABA, SOHU, SINA.

Chips: Struggling some, but after their runs, this is more like a normal
pullback: LRCX, SWKS, AMAT, AMD.

Metals, materials: After very good strength they had issues. CX fell to the
50 day EMA but held. LPX looks good at the 20 day EMA, showing a doji. AKS
is bombing lower. STLD tanked. CENX is struggling in aluminum.

Drugs/biotechs: Some big names felt the pressure last week though did not
break down. CELG, AMGN. IMGN is surging in a good move. AGEN came under
fire itself. Very mixed, but some good looking setups.

FAANG: FB looks very good to continue its breakout over the channel line.
AAPL sold into Friday but is holding the 50 day SMA. AMZN gapped lower on
earnings but was contained over the 50 day SMA. NFLX held the 10 day EMA
test. GOOG gapped below the 50 day EMA but managed to hold it on the close.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +33.76 points (+0.15%) to close at 21830.31

Nasdaq
Stats: -7.51 points (-0.12%) to close at 6374.68
Volume: 1.87B (-24.9%)

Up Volume: 784.07M (-166.88M)
Down Volume: 1.04B (-480M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.04 to 1

New Highs: 65 (-127)
New Lows: 55 (+9)

S&P
Stats: -3.32 points (-0.13%) to close at 2472.1
NYSE Volume: 772M (-14.22%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.22 to 1

New Highs: 87 (-76)
New Lows: 26 (+1)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS


VIX: 10.29; +0.18
VXN: 15.91; +0.02
VXO: 8.26; -0.13

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.83; -0.11


Bulls and Bears: Bully. After a surge of 8 points the prior week, bulls
continued the charge, moving back over 60 for the first time since early
2017. This is again putting out a caution flag for the upside, so much so
that Investor's Intelligence issued an alert on this showing in its survey.
The market tried to roll over several times since that bout of 60+ readings
in early 2017, but the selling was blunted by the PPT, then the buyers could
come back in and rescue the market. They did. Now with this reading, you
have to start watching for rollover attempts. Late last week could be one,
but it was not much, at least not yet.

Bulls: 60.2 versus 57.8

Bears: 16.5 versus 16.7

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 60.2 versus 57.8
57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus
55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus
54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4
versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8
versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8
versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9
versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 16.5 versus 16.7
16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3
versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5
versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3
versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6
versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.291% versus 2.303%. Bonds still attempting to bounce off the 200
day SMA test.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.303%
versus 2.287% versus 2.330% versus 2.255% versus 2.241% versus 2.270% versus
2.261% versus 2.318% versus 2.331% versus 2.346% versus 2.316% versus 2.361%
versus 2.375% versus 2.375% versus 2.368% versus 2.34% versus 2.304% versus
2.268% versus 2.20% versus 2.140% versus 2.140% versus 2.148% versus 2.165%
versus 2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155% versus 2.162% versus 2.209% versus
2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176% versus 2.14% versus 2.183%
versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20%


EUR/USD: 1.17497 versus 1.1683. That one-day dollar bounce sure didn't
last.

Historical: 1.1683 versus 1.17419 versus 1.1646 versus 1.1637 versus 1.16640
versus 1.16271 versus 1.15280 versus 1.15549 versus 1.14735 versus 1.14672
versus 1.13986 versus 1.14335 versus 1.14682 versus 1.13964 versus 1.14010
versus 1.14220 versus 1.13508 versus 1.13710 versus 1.13510 versus 1.14208
versus 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus 1.11928
versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus 1.11968
versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus 1.11965


USD/JPY: 110.704 versus 111.07

Historical: 111.07 versus 111.166 versus 111.897 versus 111.176 versus
111.128 versus 111.863 versus 111.89 versus 112.096 versus 112.582 versus
112.536 versus 113.314 versus 113.152 versus 113.929 versus 114.063 versus
113.913 versus 113.126 versus 113.253 versus 113.270 versus 112.413 versus
111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus 111.299 versus
111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus 110.873 versus
110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus 110.334 versus
110.299 versus 109.355


Oil: 49.71, +0.67. Oil continues upside, now at the 200 day SMA and the
upper channel line in the down channel. That said, 52-53 is the top of the
range. Getting close, another important test ahead.


Gold: 1268.40, +0.67%


MONDAY

Healthcare 'reform' was shot down by one vote from McCain as he is into
legacy building, wanting to be the man who 'stood' for working with the
other side to craft legislation. Of course that was not the case when he
wanted war and the democrats did not. Priorities, right? Now, perhaps,
Trump will do the right thing, finally, and stop subsidizing the insurance
companies to write bad insurance in the ACA 'markets.' That will bring
about the end to the majority of those plans in a hurry, requiring the need
to take action.

Then the BIG question faces America: do we go full socialism (a government
payor) or do we get back to what has made us great (still, not again) and
free up markets to be the efficient mechanisms they are AND provide for
those instances where cancer or other multi-year/lifetime ailments strike.
Those people cannot be abandoned just because of the hand they were dealt.
There ARE ways to do this and I have discussed some before. The question is
whether those in power want to relinquish their power over this aspect of
our lives and thus relinquish power back to The People.

Weighty stuff, but the market is not that concerned. Earnings are getting
longer in the tooth and now AAPL comes next week to try and get the animal
spirits back on track. The indices got a bit squirrely last week, reversed
off of some new highs, but they did not roll over.

Moreover, there are still good patterns to move on if they show good breaks.
The financials, drugs/biotechs/healthcare, materials in nice pullbacks, some
retailers making moves.

The point: still good patterns to drive the market higher -- as long as
money gets pushed there way.

The rub: this past week there was the more vicious type of rotation, i.e.
one area rises, one falls as money is yanked. That makes the market more of
a zero sum game as the algos move money around. Fortunately many stocks
continue to hold their patterns regardless, and we will try to focus on
those.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6374.68

Resistance:

Support:
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
The 20 day EMA at 6320
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6230
The 2016 trendline at 6110
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 200 day SMA at 5783
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower


S&P 500: Closed at 2472.10

Resistance:

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2458
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2439 is the early June all-time closing high
The 50 day EMA at 2435
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
The 200 day SMA at 2322
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 21,830.31

Resistance:

Support:
21,535 is the all-time high
The 20 day EMA at 21,575
The 50 day EMA at 21,367
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
The 200 day SMA at 20,292
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
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Sunday, July 23, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-22-17

* * * *
7/22/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: CENX
Entry alerts: TTPH
Trailing stops: IP; MDR
Stop alerts: ARRY

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
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********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Oh no, NASDAQ fails to notch a new high. Ha ha, right?
- Economic data continues weaker as the FOMC is set to meet next week. Will
it need to walk back some of the response from Yellen's testimony?
- FTC probing AMZN brings back memories of MSFT antitrust.
- New highs, now a rather normal test. Will RUTX manage to hold a new high
this time versus selling off?

Shocking. Alarming. NASDAQ did not rise for a session. The rally must be
over.

That is a bit of an exaggeration, but that is the way it appeared judging
from commentary on the financial stations. I suppose that mindset is bound
to evolve given the constant intervention taken to ensure any market selloff
is turned back to the upside. Most recently this occurred 2 weeks back,
prompting NASDAQ and SOX to turn -- on a dime -- and rally back to new
highs, at least for NASDAQ. NASDAQ gapped lower and SOX reversed violently
on the same session, closing at new selloff lows. The next session they
both gapped upside and rallied. A relief rally followed, and on the sixth
day Yellen gave her dovish congressional testimony. The rally surged upside
in part 2. Friday investors stepped back and the indices lost a bit of
ground. Hey, what is going on here?

Well, even manipulated markets cannot rise every session. As in 'The
Matrix' where humans would reject the programming if all was too serene and
idyllic, if stocks rallied every day, even the slowest in the land, that is,
Congress, would catch on and the intervention would lose effect. So, there
will be allowed declines as on Friday. The controlling powers will allow
normal market pullbacks, but if it continues too long and threatens a real
break, such as 2 weeks ago, actions must be taken.

So, as we noted might happened, though we wanted more upside first, the
stock indices started testing the breaks to new highs. Barely. The losses
in many cases required sensitive instruments to measure them.

SP500 -0.91, -0.04%
NASDAQ -2.25, -0.04%
DJ30 -31.71, -0.15%
SP400 -0.26%
RUTX -0.45%
SOX -0.81%

VOLUME: NYSE +12%, NASDAQ -3%. NYSE trade finally moved higher Thursday
and Friday, though still below average. As SP500 and the NYSE indices went
nowhere or lost ground, that suggests some churn/higher volume turnover
after a good move. Nothing major yet, but higher volume to the downside is
never great. NASDAQ trade remained low and below average as it tested; no
selling what they just bought.

A/D: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.5:1. NASDAQ 100 was up on the session,
indicating the negative breadth was thanks to the non-large cap four letter
stocks.

This is hardly the stuff of an imminent selloff. Now IF the stock indices
reversed downside sharply as they have done on other occasions, giving up
the breakout with downside engulfing patterns, THAT would be a cause for
concern. Oh, but there is the Fed and the Plunge Protection Team, ready to
assist whenever some selling lasts to the point where those playing the
upside may get discouraged and not put all of their money into stocks (as if
there was another choice, right?).


NEWS/ECONOMY

The week was pretty slow given most of the news is the same old stories that
are kept alive with new leaks, theories, accusations. The Trump/Russia
fishing expedition continues and Trump continues insisting on keeping it
going with continued unforced errors. For instance? He says he would never
have hired Sessions if he knew Sessions would recuse himself -- without
asking. Granted I would be a bit miffed if my AG did that without
consultation, but I just don't have the bravado to Tweet about it. Trump
does things the way he has always done things, and it is quite humorous to
watch DC squirm. It is like the Beverly Hillbillies coming to upper
society, but the irony is Trump is one of upper society.

There are stories to worry about. As seen Thursday, the economic data
continues to erode as Philly Fed saw new orders (25.9 to 2.1), production,
and other metrics not just fall, but downright collapse. Economic data
continues eroding, and there is your justification for Yellen's
congressional cold feet.

There are also not just economic stories.

The FTC is probing AMZN for deceptive discounting. Democrats are vociferous
in wanting the FTC to pursue AMZN on the WFM deal. Sounds as if the
'getting too big' standard for corporations is flashing at Congress'
socialists. That is not to be confused with the 'too big to fail' standard
applied to banks. Banks can be propped up and subsidized as much as needed
to maintain their dominance, but corporations cannot be allowed to get too
large. After all, most members of Congress go to work for a big financial
institution or a firm in bed with the financial institutions after they
leave office. Cannot have the source of multi-million dollar salaries and
bonuses taken away; it is an entitlement for serving, right?

The problem: when government starts trying to limit companies for their
success, tremors run through the economy. It happened when the Clinton
administration decided to go after MSFT. No one knew it at the time, but
that move coincided with the NASDAQ's top. Now we have a long rally and
AMZN rightly is credited with a big role in that move. New highs, much rah,
rah spirit, then the regulators feel the need to 'protect' is us all. What
with? Another stock market crash and recession as in 2000 and 2001? Gee,
thanks. Not sure if the Fed and PPT can ultimately avert any negative
ramifications if the FTC is serious.


Money Supply. Of course what keeps the economy and markets moving is money
supply, and our friends at the Fed have the vault keys. While Yellen turned
more dovish with her congressional testimony, money supply is still
contracting, down for 105 months straight to a low of 5.4% growth. Yes it
is still growing, but for perspective that level is below the September 2008
level. It remains to be seen if the Fed loosens back up or not.


North Korea: The US has told all US nationals in North Korea to leave
immediately. That sounds really promising for a quick peace agreement. If
you mean bombing North Korea off the map as a quick means to peace, that is.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

So this is selling? The indices test their breaks higher. Not a lot of
intrigue here.

SOX: The only index NOT to hit a new high last week, so we start here.
Nice rally past the June lower high, peaking Thursday. Friday a gap to a
doji over the 10 day EMA. These stocks need a test, likely put in a modest
test over part of this coming week.

NASDAQ: Later to the new high but solid enough action with volume on
Tuesday's upside, a Wednesday gap past the prior all-time high. Thursday
and Friday basically a standoff. Breakout, new high, a very modest test
thus far.

RUTX: Nice surge to a clear new high Wednesday, a pause Thursday, then RUTX
was on a rampage early Friday. Then it stopped. The bids ended. RUTX
slipped, then fell harder, losing almost a half percent on the session.
Still holding the breakout to the high, however, and not in bad shape. It's
just that every time we see that kind of reversal you worry. It happened in
late February/early March. It happened in April just after a new high. It
happened in early June as it put in a new high. It happens.

SP400: This is a pretty test. Wednesday breakout to a new high, Thursday
and Friday a tap at the 10 day EMA on the low, a decent rebound off the
test. Held the break to a new high, good position.

SP500: New highs continued through Thursday, though Wednesday was the
closing high. Barely giving any back, holding easily over the 10 day EMA in
a barely test.

DJ30: Held steady around the prior week's new high, bouncing back and forth
over the 10 day EMA. Would test lower intraday then rebound to hold the 10
day. Pretty decent test has already taken place, leaving DJ30 in position
to move higher.


LEADERSHIP

Many groups rallied on the week, many tested back some to end the week.
Still plenty of leaders to push the indices higher. Biotech/Drugs,
software, China, chips look good. Even some retail has improved while oil
tries again but also struggles again.

China: Several stocks surged, other leaders tested. BZUN is surging and
continued doing so Friday with an 8% gain. HTHT surged. JD looks good to
make a break higher. SINA, SOHU, NTES, BABA are in decent tests. WUBA
looks ready to go again.

Biotech/Drugs: Some good moves, some tests as well. CELG rallied late week
showing better volume. AMGN was steadily higher up the 10 day EMA though
not spectacular. Others look ready to go, e.g. AXGN, ARNA.

Software: Some security software looks decent, e.g. SPLK. VMW still looks
good. TTWO, GLUU also have possibilities.

Retail: DDS exploded higher and continued to surge. CONN is setting up in
an early part of a test. JCP actually looks as if it can make a break
higher form a long selloff.

FAANG: FB led early week, hit the top of its channel, paused. AAPL is
testing a break through the 50 day SMA; interesting. AMZN testing the 10
day EMA after hitting a new high Tuesday to Thursday. NFLX continued higher
after gapping on earnings. GOOG just below the June high.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: -31.71 points (-0.15%) to close at 21580.07

Nasdaq
Stats: -2.25 points (-0.04%) to close at 6387.75
Volume: 1.8B (-2.7%)

Up Volume: 742.23M (-317.77M)
Down Volume: 986.83M (+240.7M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.47 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.14 to 1

New Highs: 131 (-59)
New Lows: 42 (+10)

S&P
Stats: -0.91 points (-0.04%) to close at 2472.54
NYSE Volume: 836.8M (+11.59%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.11 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.03 to 1

New Highs: 184 (-31)
New Lows: 15 (+7)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.36; -0.22
VXN: 14.36; 0
VXO: 7.77; -1.23

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.74; 0


Bulls and Bears: Bully. Bulls surge almost 8 points and indeed close to the
highs from earlier in the year. Nothing like new highs. Bulls fell almost
2 points, falling back toward multiyear lows.

Bulls: 57.8 versus 50.0

Bears: 16.7 versus 18.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 57.8 versus 50.0
50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus
50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus
51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7
versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2
versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6
versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 16.7 versus 18.6
18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1
versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3
versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5
versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3
versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3
versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.241% versus 2.264%. Bonds continued to rally on the week, moving
farther off the 200 day SMA.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.241%
versus 2.270% versus 2.261% versus 2.318% versus 2.331% versus 2.346% versus
2.316% versus 2.361% versus 2.375% versus 2.375% versus 2.368% versus 2.34%
versus 2.304% versus 2.268% versus 2.20% versus 2.140% versus 2.140% versus
2.148% versus 2.165% versus 2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155% versus 2.162%
versus 2.209% versus 2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176% versus
2.14% versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20%


EUR/USD: 1.16640 versus 1.16271. Euro broke sharply higher Thursday,
continued the move Friday.

Historical: 1.16271 versus 1.15280 versus 1.15549 versus 1.14735 versus
1.14672 versus 1.13986 versus 1.14335 versus 1.14682 versus 1.13964 versus
1.14010 versus 1.14220 versus 1.13508 versus 1.13710 versus 1.13510 versus
1.14208 versus 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus
1.11928 versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus
1.11968 versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965 versus 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671


USD/JPY: 111.128 versus 111.863. Dollar bombed lower, breaking below the
50 day SMA Friday after trying to hold it Tuesday to Thursday.

Historical: 111.863 versus 111.89 versus 112.096 versus 112.582 versus
112.536 versus 113.314 versus 113.152 versus 113.929 versus 114.063 versus
113.913 versus 113.126 versus 113.253 versus 113.270 versus 112.413 versus
111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus 111.299 versus
111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus 110.873 versus
110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus 110.334 versus
110.299 versus 109.355


Oil: 45.72, -1.15. Came under pressure Friday as production figures show
Saudi Arabia pumping more than it said.


Gold: 1254.90, +9.40. Gold took on new luster with a move off the break
over the 200 day SMA. Paused midweek, surged sharply Friday, continuing
higher in its range.


MONDAY

Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, GDP Q2 advanced, and our
friends at the FOMC with a rate decision Wednesday. A relatively blistering
2.8% is anticipated on GDP -- will the Fed have advance notice of the
advance report? Likely. Will it toughen up the Fed's statement on
Wednesday? It shouldn't, but then again, the Fed may feel the market
misunderstood Chairman Yellen's congressional testimony and desires to
redirect the mindset away from the Fed having turned more dovish to
compensate for economic AND political risk.

That means Wednesday could be a bit more interesting than usual in terms of
a typical FOMC meeting. Outside of that, the indices started a test toward
the weekend, now a very modest test, a very normal one after new highs.
That should continue and set up a new break higher once completed.

The worry, of course, is that after hitting new highs the indices reverse.
As noted in discussing the RUTX chart, that is something it has done quite
regularly. New high, selloff. New high, selloff. Of course RUTX is not
the entire market and NASDAQ and SOX have led most of the move, and they too
are important for the rally's further advance. Both are in very nice, easy,
orderly tests. With the Fed, as far as we know right now, fully behind the
market, why not put in an easy test of the new highs and then resume the
rally?

As a result, we have some nice upside plays for the coming week, stocks that
in some cases have not made a big move yet but have some great bases in
place and look to move higher. Others have rallied, are testing, and still
have plenty of room to rise.

Earnings is here and some of these plays are heading toward results. Even
so, we like the possibilities.

Have a great evening!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6387.75

Resistance:

Support:
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
The 10 day EMA at 6316
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6191
The 2016 trendline at 6078
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 200 day SMA at 5756
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower


S&P 500: Closed at 2472.54

Resistance:

Support:
The 10 day EMA at 2458
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2439 is the early June all-time closing high
The 50 day EMA at 2427
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
The 200 day SMA at 2314
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 21,580.07

Resistance:

Support:
21,535 is the all-time high
The 20 day EMA at 21,489
The 50 day EMA at 21,294
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
The 200 day SMA at 20,205
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
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1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439

Saturday, July 15, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-15-17

* * * *
7/15/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: AMGN; DVAX
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Economic data limps in, giving the Fed's new normal dovishness support.
- Stocks take solace, embracing 'bad is good' once again.
- No volume, lousy breadth, new highs for DJ30, SP500, RUTX.
- Thus far rotation is helping all, hurting few. Earnings are coming and
may change that.

Friday saw more weak economic data from the CPI to Retail Sales. I suppose
you can conclude the Fed had this data before Yellen's return to not so
lonesome dove status in her Wednesday congressional address.

The market returned as well, i.e. returned to the 'bad is good' mindset.
Why not? The Fed has its back for economic AND political risk as learned
Wednesday. So, bad news equals good news equals buy.

That sent DJ30 to another new high as SP500 and RUTX joined it. NASDAQ and
SP400 are very close as well. A new normal in normalization of rates and
all is well again in terms of buying stocks.

SP500 11.44, 0.47%
NASDAQ 38.03, 0.61%
DJ30 85.65, 0.39%
SP400 0.34%
RUTX 0.22%
SOX 1.30%

VOLUME: NYSE -12%, NASDAQ -11%. Amazingly low volume. Yes, yes, it is
summer and vacation time, but you would think the Fed's 'run to the light'
capitulation this week trade would perk up a bit.

Advance/Decline: NYSE 2.5:1, NASDAQ 1.3:1. Seriously? NASDAQ is punching
at a new high and breadth is not even 3:2? Trying to figure out how NYSE
breadth hit 5:2 given the weak gains in small and midcaps. Suffice it to
say, breadth was a putrid as volume on this move. But, in a 'ignore the
dangers, enjoy the ride' Fed and PPT-induced rally, who cares, right?


It really does appear as if the Fed and the government (through the Plunge
Protection Team established under Reagan) will do anything to keep stock
markets higher. Why? Because likely they know that if this rally ever
stops and the algos that run the big buys and sells (versus the fund
managers that used to move the markets) flip their bias, the selling would
be historic in its descent, both in rate and magnitude.


It appeared the FOMC was on a 'bold' road to normalization. A steady,
methodical pace of modest rate hikes and a reduction in the ballooned
balance sheet thanks to buying any and all junk the financial markets
produced during the financial crisis and beyond.

Ostensibly this was keeping in step with an improving economy, though as we
pointed out for the past several months, the economic activity is not
improving. The reality appeared to be the Fed realized it was way behind
the curve, and if the domestic political and geopolitical stage continued to
worsen in addition to weakening economic data (to which the Fed would not
admit), the Fed did not have enough silver bullets to forestall any new
crises that might threaten the power of those in power. Thus, the need to
hike.

Then something happened. The data was worse than expected, even worse than
the Fed could gloss over. Jobs beat expectations and that is always good
for an excuse to look the other way, but jobs lag economic activity, and of
course the jobs report these days, similar to most government economic
reports, is hardly a representation of reality. Wages were still bad,
almost 100M (and some say over 100M) working aged are out of the workforce,
GDP was weak and saw corporate profits (as measured by IRS payments) fall,
retail sales fell for a second month, Inflation remains weak (at least
according to the government), and of course the President's healthcare
reform and tax cut agenda is at best in limbo.

Wednesday Chairman Yellen produced a much more dovish economic assessment
for Congress, lowering the Fed's GDP expectations.

So, no bold move back to normalization of rates? No, just the way the
government normalizes these days: CHANGE THE DEFINITION of normal.
Apparently permanently low growth rates and low interest rates are the Fed's
new normal. As with what you hear from many in Congress and 'expert'
economists, US economic growth is now permanently mired at European levels.

This has been said before about the US. Back in the 1970's when the US went
through stagflation and other woes thanks to overregulation, many said the
US economy was a nice experiment, had a good run, but it had run its course.
Then Reagan came along, implemented pro-growth policies, reduced regulation,
returned the power regarding investment decisions (in other words, money)
back to the people, and voila, a 20 year boom started.

The US population ran full circle from free markets and the boom they
produced to largess and entitlement expectation in the almost 40 years since
the Reagan era that Clinton helped keep alive with some good policy
decisions that overcame bad policy decisions, at least for awhile. After 8
years of massive, massive regulation and taxation, the votes came in for a
return to again freer markets, less regulation, less taxation.

The sad thing is, the Administration's propensity to self-inflict wounds
combined with an organized and motivated opposition and an utterly hapless,
power-consumed Congress has road-blocked what most people in the US want:
less regulation, less taxation, and a return of the power regarding
important life decisions such as healthcare.

Thus, perhaps Yellen's and the FOMC's read on the outlook is correct.
Realizing the politics are swinging against any real reform, the Fed was
compelled to adjust its view, fearing that in Yellen's twilight the markets
might actually roll over because of the political obstacles blocking what
sparked the November to early Summer stock market rally. Yellen cannot have
that blemish on her record just before Trump appoints another for the Chair.

Alas, the Fed is political as well. Who would have thought?

The upshot, however, is the Fed again has the market's back. It was
comfortable with letting the market correct a bit, but with these new
potential perils to Yellen's legacy it is taking no chances. So, the Fed
now has the market's back for economics and politics. And Yellen's legacy.

Of course the market responded upside. A new high for DJ30 on Wednesday,
the day of Yellen's new normal. SP500 and RUTX joined in with new all-time
highs on Friday. NASDAQ and SP400 midcaps are knocking on the new high
door.

Excruciatingly light volume and not even a lot of breadth on the move to the
highs, even after the Yellen capitulation. Yet stocks climb. There is no
reason, again, to go lower if the Fed is going to back the stock market for
all reasons. Even Yellen's putative replacement, Mr. Kohn, is viewed by the
financial markets as uber-market friendly. That thought simply added
further giddiness to the upside.

Now the big names are second-guessing whether there will be a late
summer/early fall selloff as they alter their rate hike forecasts. Of
course those forecasts are worthless, but the market, despite rather
terrible internals, continues higher because the Fed has its back and there
is nowhere else to go. Savings? The Fed just knifed the elderly again;
banks should clone the democrat's healthcare commercial of a Paul Ryan
look-alike wheeling granny off the cliff and give the person doing the
pushing a Yellen look. Gold? You can buy it again. The dollar? It just
broke to a lower low out of the bottom of its channel. Hmmm. Perhaps
stocks?


THE MARKET

CHARTS

SP500: New all-time high as SP500 gapped off the 50 day EMA Wednesday and
rallied straight up. No volume, lousy breadth, but it made the new high
without the help from financials as their earnings were met with selling,
but they all recovered nicely. New high, lousy internals. Technically
something of a nightmare, but the market continues to move higher.

RUTX: New high as well though losing as much off the high on the close as
it gained. Still trying to figure out NYSE breadth gains with this kind of
move, a kind of 'excuse me' new high.

DJ30: Another new high here as well, its third straight. On no volume.

NASDAQ: Gapped higher and rallied close to a new high, just 9 points off
the early June closing high. No volume and it will be interesting to see
how NASDAQ reacts at the prior all-time high.

SOX: Broke higher over the June highs, still well off the early June peak.
Up 6 of 8 sessions.

SP400: The small caps touched the June all-time high then faded the gain.
5 of 6 days up, moving off the 50 day MA double bottom formed in June. Not
a bad pattern, new all-time high appears imminent, even with pathetic volme.


LEADERSHIP

Biotechs/Drugs: Overall solid on the week with some good moves Friday, e.g.
DVAX, AMGN. TTPH, AGEN, MNTA and others still look very good.

China: Some very good moves on the week and some on Friday. BABA continued
upside through Friday. YY is one we picked up Wednesday and it shot higher
9% Friday. YNDX gapped massively; could not buy it. NTES started a good
move though Thursday tested back to the 10 day EMA. Solid overall.

FAANG: Helped lead NASDAQ higher Friday, adding more gains. GOOG filled
the late June gap lower. AMZN is in a very nice test after approaching the
prior high. AAPL continued higher to the 50 day SMA. FB gapped a bit higher
to a doji. NFLX added more upside on its rebound.

Financial: Gapped lower on the JPM, C, WFC, GS earnings, these stocks did a
credible job of recovering off the opening lows. C puts in a very nice doji
with tail at the 20 day EMA. JPM gapped to the 20 day EMA then rebounded
sharply. Not bad, still showing good patterns.

Chips: Still recovering. LRCX edged higher on low volume in its week-plus
move. AMAT edged higher as well along with SWKS. AMD, MU faded some on the
week, moved higher Friday.

Metals: Faded some Friday but overall a solid week, maintaining good
patterns. SCHN, STLD, CENX, FCX.

Manufacturing, Machinery, Construction, Materials: Overall a decent week
though not hugely powerful. TEX broke to a higher rally high. MDR rallied
nicely on the week. HOLI rallied, still holding a good pattern.

Energy: Still well down in its selling but once again attempting to build a
foundation to move up. APA, HOS, SPN, PTEN, HAL. Possible, we will see.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +84.65 points (+0.39%) to close at 21637.74

Nasdaq
Stats: +38.03 points (+0.61%) to close at 6312.47
Volume: 1.62B (-10.5%)

Up Volume: 1.11B (+167.28M)
Down Volume: 483.29M (-351.3M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.3 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.01 to 1

New Highs: 151 (+45)
New Lows: 36 (-9)

S&P
Stats: +11.44 points (+0.47%) to close at 2459.27
NYSE Volume: 674.3M (-12.22%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.49 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.09 to 1

New Highs: 187 (+66)
New Lows: 8 (-4)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.51; -0.39
VXN: 13.8; -0.82
VXO: 8.64; +0.24

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.84; -0.03


Bulls and Bears: Bulls slip to match the lows of 2017. Hit highs in early
2017, now bulls are falling but surely the Fed's largesse will bounce them
back up. Right?

Bulls: 50.0 versus 52.5

Bears: 18.6 versus 18.8

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 50.0 versus 52.5
52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus
51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3
versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1
versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6
versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8
versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1
versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 18.6 versus 18.8
18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3
versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1
versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6
versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4
versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6
versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.332 versus 2.346%. Bonds gapped sharply higher, hitting 2.28% on
the 10 year, before failing at the 50 day MA and falling back to close at
the 200 day MA. Tried to rally on the Yellen dovishness but having a hard
time advancing the move.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.346%
versus 2.316% versus 2.361% versus 2.375% versus 2.375% versus 2.368% versus
2.34% versus 2.304% versus 2.268% versus 2.20% versus 2.140% versus 2.140%
versus 2.148% versus 2.165% versus 2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155% versus
2.162% versus 2.209% versus 2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176%
versus 2.14% versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20%


EUR/USD: 1.14672 versus 1.13986

Historical: 1.13986 versus 1.14335 versus 1.14682 versus 1.13964 versus
1.14010 versus 1.14220 versus 1.13508 versus 1.13710 versus 1.13510 versus
1.14208 versus 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus
1.11928 versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus
1.11968 versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965 versus 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671


USD/JPY: 112.536 versus 113.314. Dollar tested on the week then fell hard
Frida through the 200 day SMA.

Historical: 113.314 versus 113.152 versus 113.929 versus 114.063 versus
113.913 versus 113.126 versus 113.253 versus 113.270 versus 112.413 versus
111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus 111.299 versus
111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus 110.873 versus
110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus 110.334 versus
110.299 versus 109.355


Oil: 46.54, +0.46. Oil rallied back up to the 50 day MA Friday after
failing at that level two weeks back. Faded, put in a higher low, rallied
back. Now if the range is going to hold, oil should continue the break
higher in the range.


Gold: 1227.50, +10.20. Gold broke below the May low last week, rebounded
to recover it this week, gratis Yellen. Tapped the 200 day SMA on the high
then faded the gain. In a range and trying to roll back up from the lows.


MONDAY

NYSE indices were building patterns but were sluggish, not going anywhere.
NASDAQ and SOX started with a relief move after 2 weeks of selling. Then
that relief move took on new life Wednesday with the release of the Yellen
testimony to Congress. Wednesday to Friday those two put in solid moves.
Friday saw the NYSE indices coming around now as well, indeed beating SOX
and NASDAQ to new highs simply, however, because they did not rally before
or sell; they just were.

NASDAQ will be bumping the early June high to start the week with low, low
volume and MACD well, well lower as NASDAQ tests the prior high.
Technically it doesn't have a lot of power, and indeed the NYSE indices rose
on low volume and narrow breadth. Yet the Fed is there along with the PPT,
and the market has put in another recovery.

They may be ready for a test of the week to the upside though whether it is
more than a test becomes less likely now that the Fed is running cover. So,
we see if there is a test we can use to exit some plays and then set up new
upside buys. If a test is just a test, then we have new upside entries. If
not, if the rebound was just the last bit of fluff and rolls over hard, then
we will have some downside plays as well.

Of course, not everything has to fall. Rotation has given to some, taken
from others. It could return, but again, with the Fed becoming more dovish,
new money may enter the market allowing all areas to rise. That is not all
that evident yet given the very, very light trade, but both scenarios are
something to keep in mind when watching the market action this coming week.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6312.47

Resistance:
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.

Support:
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6153
The 2016 trendline at 6050
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 200 day SMA at 5729
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower


S&P 500: Closed at 2459.27

Resistance:

Support:
2453.46 is the all-time closing high
2439 is the early June prior all-time closing high
The 50 day EMA at 2417
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
The 200 day SMA at 2306
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 21,637.74

Resistance:

Support:
21,535 is the all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 21,224
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 20,121
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
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