Saturday, October 15, 2016

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 10-15-16

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10/15/2016 Investment House Daily
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Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: SPY
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: VIPS

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- Chinese data this time tries to help the market.
- Did the Friends of Janet try to save the market from losses ahead of the
- Budget deficit soars explodes despite record taxes.
- Atlanta Fed takes down Q3 GDP yet again.
- Does the Fed really think anyone believes it?
- Volatility strikes back, leaves the indices technically bearish overall,
though in this market they could bounce near term first. Of course, then
there is the Fed.

Did the friends of Janet just stick save the market again?

It was a week that returned to old themes, one being China. Another is
volatility with day to day and intraday tennis match swings. Another is Fed
action in times of market stress. Not market crisis, but simple market
stress. The economy is, after all, recovering right? After all, the
Atlanta Fed just reduced its Q3 GDP to half its original estimate. It would
be very untoward just ahead of a presidential election if stocks rolled over
and tumbled, belying the purported economic prosperity that everyone talks
about but very few feel. All three were at work during the week, and the
market action suggests they are not done.

On Thursday China reported exports fell 10%. Stocks fell hard, but just as
several indices breached the early September lows hit on that sharp plunge,
they reversed. No positive close but they went a long way in cutting the

Friday there was more Chinese economic news but this time it was viewed as a
positive. Its PPI rose (0.1% versus -0.3% expected) for the first time
since March 2012 and helped bolster stocks and continue the Thursday
rebound. September retail sales snapped back to 0.6% from -0.2% in August,
adding to the upside impetus.

Stocks started higher but unfortunately hit their high at 10:20ET. That put
NASDAQ at its 50 day SMA, SP500, RUTX and DJ30 at their 50 day EMA, and SOX
and SP400 at their 10 day EMA. In short, they bounced, but bounced right
into resistance. And, resistance held. A sharp drop to midday ensued, and
then the indices range traded into the close.

SP500 0.43, 0.02%
NASDAQ 0.83, 0.02%
DJ30 39.44, 0.22%
SP400 0.01%
RUTX -0.27%
SOX 0.79%

VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -9%. Trade at least faded on the reversal, but it
is because of a lack of volume that helped the reversal along given the
early buying was not strong. Thus trade faded farther below average.

A/D: NYSE flat, NASDAQ flat.

The chart action on the week is bearish. The big Tuesday drop, the pause,
then the Thursday gap and selloff. The rebound was modestly encouraging as
it looked as if the Fed stepped in on SP500 and company and bought the dip,
driving those indices back up inside the early September lows hit on that
massive plunge 6 Fridays back.

The Friday action kept the indices above the early September low but that is
about all it did. The indices moved up to tap resistance either from the 50
day EMA or the 10 day EMA and then reversed to give up nearly all the
session gains. Indeed, RUTX did give up its gains and closed lower.

So, in a nutshell, after a quiet period where volatility died down and the
NYSE indices looked as if they might try to follow NASDAQ and SOX' strength,
the big V returned with gusto this week. A new selloff to new lows on this
pullback for some of the indices, followed by a bounce that looks all but
dead and over with.

That reopens the downside door and again leaves you asking the question,
will the Fed try to stop any selling given the election is less than a month
away? I am inclined to answer that 'yes.' It likely tried it on Thursday
as the indices rolled over to undercut the September low. Will the Fed be
successful? In the short run the Fed can pull that off. It did so in
February and pushed a very solid rebound. Friday Yellen was more dovish,
"steering to the left of the Minutes" as a JPM analyst described it,
indicating that she, of course, will take actions she deems necessary. So,
it appears she will try, but will she overcome the market's bearish


Budget Deficit soars even as tax receipts hit a record.

Spending rose 5% to 3.9T as the US borrows $0.15 of every dollar spent.

For fiscal year 2016 the US government's budget deficit surged 34% to $587B.

As a percentage of GDP the deficit climbed to 3.2% from 2.5% the prior year.

Tax receipts hit a record of $3.27T, yet our deficit surges.

As is often stated, there is no revenue problem, there is a spending
problem. Despite raising taxes and taking in more taxes from higher and
newer taxes, the deficit grows. Economists always say you cannot tax your
way out of the kind of deficit the US runs, and this past year provides a
textbook example of that.

Q3 GDP estimates are slashed further. Who would have thought?

Friday the Atlanta Fed, after a rosy 3.8% projection for Q3 initially, made
yet another cut to that forecast. 3%, 2.6%, now just 1.9%. As the data
comes in, the numbers shrink. We have seen this movie too many times, the
one where hope springs eternal that things will get better in the second
half, that the economy is just about to take off. Then, nothing. The same
old stumbling, bumbling economy.

So, here's to a 1.4% 2016 GDP if Q4 can come in with the 1.6% currently
forecast and if the 1.9% Q3 revision is not revised even lower.

Lines of BS Part 2

As noted Thursday, you cannot watch news today and come away with any
semblance of the truth. I am not talking about the reporters per se, though
their inability to grasp the concepts and ask germane, meaningful questions
exposes the failures of journalism schools in addition to the viewpoints
where they work. Today I am talking about the guest experts on television
or the radio, invited to share their wisdom with all of us. They appear on
these stations with their titles, they spout their viewpoints and talking
points, then they leave their short segment, unchallenged as to what was
just stated.

A real time example: Another Federal Reserve bank president interview

Fed bank president Harker appeared on Fox Business Thursday morning to give
his take on rates and the economy. Mr. Harker was asked about the jobs
market and how some aspects looked promising, but others such as
participation rates, were not. As a reminder, the participation rate as
defined by the BLS is the percentage of the civilian non-institutional (i.e.
no prisoners) population aged 16 or over in the labor force (working or
actively seeking work). The participation rate in September stood at 62.9%,
just off lows hit back in the early 1970's and those wonderful economic
times. At that percentage, that tells you 94.1M working age US citizens not
only out of work, but out of the workforce.

Harker confidently stated that the participation rate was low and was going
to stay low for one simple reason: baby boomers are retiring. That is it.
That is his explanation.

Here is the problem with that, and a problem we have with just about all
conclusions the Fed reaches: it is direct conflict with the data that the
BLS compiles.

The participation rate tumbled at the time of the financial crisis from 66.4
to 62.4 in late 2015. There was no mass retirement at the time of the
financial crisis. People simply lost their jobs and could not find jobs to
replace them. As the 'recovery' progressed, they were able to find work,
but many work part time at more than one job or work 'full time' at a job
that pays far less than they full-time salary earned pre-crisis. Moreover,
per the September BLS jobs report, just 48% of all workers hold a full-time
job right now.

But here is the kicker. As I have reported each month for years, more
months than not have shown that it is the elderly, those 55 and over, who
are taking the bulk of the low wage hourly jobs this economy creates. They
are forced back into work because they simply cannot afford to live with 1)
the Fed holding interest rates near 0%, rendering traditional income
producing assets dead assets, 2) surging costs of healthcare (the ACA), 3)
surging rents, 4) food inflation.

Thus the elderly are not retiring but being forced back into the workforce.
Then why is the participation rate stagnant, and in Harker's words, going to
remain depressed?

Look at the other end of the spectrum. We pay people not to work in the US.
Several studies show that a single, non-working mother with 3 to 4 children
who participates in all federal programs has more disposable income than the
same person working a $70K per year job who pays her taxes and is not
eligible for those same benefits because of her income. Again, we pay
people not work in the US.

It is not because they are lazy or stupid. To the contrary, they are quite
smart, taking advantage of what is offered. Whether conscious or not, they
are making rational economic decisions about their lives. That is why I
always ask this simple question to any politician who comes to me for a
donation: do you believe if you pay someone to do something they will do it,
or if you pay someone not to do something they won't do it? If they cannot
answer a clear 'yes' to that question I know they do not understand
economics and accordingly will not make good decisions under pressure.

Thus, we PAY a large percentage of citizens not to work, to stay out of the
workforce. Oh that doesn't mean they just sit and take benefits. No, they
also work jobs here and there for cash and again, make an economic decision
not to report it. The odds of their being caught are low while the benefits
of tax free money are high. Thus they don't work in the system, participate
in the government benefits, work side jobs for cash, and pay no taxes. Oh
yes, and they are out of the workforce.

The Fed connection

But the Fed is not just talking, it is part of the problem. Capital
investment came up in the interview and Harker said that the businesses he
talked with all say it is the uncertainty of the times that keeps them from
making capital investment.

Sure uncertainty always plays a role. Harker is being disingenuous,
however, in ignoring the Fed's role. The Fed has held interest rates near
0% for over a decade. When there is uncertainty there is less inclination
for businesses to risk capital investment. When you have an alternative,
there is no reason to take on the risk of capital investment.

Large corporations can access cash for virtually no cost in the current
extremely low rate environment. They can then turn around and invest in
guaranteed returns such as bonds. Money for nothing, guaranteed return, no
risk, no brainer. They make money with no risk, can use the money to buy
back stock or block competition from entering their domain, further
increasing profitability. They can take the extra profits and buy back more
stock. They reduce the float, automatically increase earnings per share,
trigger their clauses in their compensation packages, take home great

This is the SAME thing the Wells Fargo management was just hauled in front
of Congress for. The same issues that led to the Wells Fargo CEO to resign
Thursday. The management set up a system that rewarded certain behavior and
to what should have been no one's surprise, the employees acted according to
the way the system was set up. To stand up and proclaim ignorance and
innocence as to what your employees do under the system you set up is

For the Fed to arrogantly talk of the causes of the lack of capital
investment in the US and gloss over its effects on the citizenry while
wholly ignoring its primary role in the causation is either the height of
arrogance or the epitome of educational ignorance where theory blurs out all
reality or effects of implementing that theory.

The most shocking aspect of this to me (because I am aware of all of the
other statistics stated) is that the Fed members pontificate on policy and
CONTROL OUR FINANCIAL LIVES, yet base their actions regarding our financial
lives on erroneous assumptions. Thus we have a Fed that thinks the economy
is in recovery because the unemployment rate is low even with 94.1M people
out of the workforce. It isn't retirement that has them out, it is the
incentive to not work, and that incentive is not at the higher ages but at
people in their prime earning years. Is it any wonder, outside of the low
wage hour jobs that now predominate this economy, why average wages are so


The indices look weak once again from a technical standpoint. From a Fed
stand point . . .


SP500: Gapped upside, rallied through the 10 day EMA and near the 50 day
EMA but then faded the entire move. Still above the early September lows on
that sharp selloff, but on the week SP500 renewed the downside with that
sharp Tuesday fall, and the Thursday reversal and Friday fizzled rally are
not encouraging that technically it can hold up. Then there is the Fed . .

DJ30: Gapped and rallied to the 50 day EMA on the high, then reversed to
close at the session low. Held a gain; moral victory because the failure at
resistance shows that what buyers there were early fled the scene. DJ30 is
still in the 5 week lateral range following that sharp drop in early
September, but also a technically weak pattern.

NASDAQ: Gapped upside, moved through the 50 day SMA, then faded almost the
entire move, closing back below the 50 day EMA where it started. Not the
most auspicious rebound from selling though NASDAQ does hold one of its
uptrends from early 2016, and NASDAQ's pattern is not as toppy as the other
two large cap indices. It can hold here and continue as if nothing
happened -- but it has to hold over 5165.

RUTX: Rallied off the Thursday selling, moving up near the 50 day EMA but
never touching it before rolling over and closing at the session low. Still
just over the early September low, pretty much RUTX' last line of defense to
hold the current rally off the June low.

SP400: Gapped and rallied to the 10 day EMA then reversed the move to just
a modest gain. Broke the up trendline from January on Tuesday, posted a
lower low undercutting the early September low, then tried a rebound.
Friday SP400 gapped upside, made that 10 day EMA test, then faded the move.
Still over the September low but quite weak.

SOX: SOX showed a nice doji with tail Thursday as SOX made a full test back
to the 50 day MA's that it has used as support on this move. Friday a gap
higher to at tombstone doji that tapped the 10 day EMA on the high and
faded. SOX is still in a nice uptrend but it will have to show it can hold
what might be another quick test of this level.


Big Names: AAPL gapped to a decent gain. AMZN tried to gap off its 20 day
EMA test but faded the entire move. FB struggled and failed to hold a move
back over the 20 day EMA. NFLX gapped over resistance in a recovery move.
GOOG tried higher again, but settled back to the 20 day EMA again on the

Chips: SWKS looks fine testing its 20 day EMA. SLAB is testing its 50 day
MA's. MRVL holding up fine after a quick 50 day EMA test Thursday. AMAT
broke the 50 day MA's on the week. AMD still in a decent recovery. MU
tested the 50 day MA's on the week. Mostly in good enough shape, but
definitely testing.

Industrial equipment: Solid action with CAT bouncing off the 20 day EMA.
CMI is holding the 20 day EMA.

Oil: Still some very good tests, e.g. APA, CRK. Others have run a long way
and may be a bit tired but have not broken, e.g. CWEI, APC. HAL has surged,
needs a breather.

Financial: A mixed bag Friday but decent enough n the week. BAC tested but
held. C surged but purged though its pattern is still fine. TCBI is
holding the 20 day EMA but it is struggling.

Retail: Some downgrades in the sector department stores and that hurt M,
KSS and DDS though JWN fared just fine. BBY faded just a bit of its move.
Apparel makers are still weak, e.g. NKE, LULU. UA is down but is in an
interesting pattern.

Tech: Some of the recent leaders fell on the week, e.g. STX, WDC. MSFT
continues to hang in its lateral range as does VMW.


Stats: +0.83 points (+0.02%) to close at 5214.16
Volume: 1.573B (-9.11%)

Up Volume: 824.63M (+275.99M)
Down Volume: 737.23M (-372.77M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.05 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.57 to 1

New Highs: 38 (+16)
New Lows: 79 (-20)

Stats: +0.43 points (+0.02%) to close at 2132.98
NYSE Volume: 808.1M (-7.85%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.01 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.97 to 1

New Highs: 49 (+13)
New Lows: 22 (-20)

Stats: +39.44 points (+0.22%) to close at 18138.38


VIX: 16.12; -0.57
VXN: 17.4; -0.25
VXO: 15.99; -0.56

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; -0.03

Nineteen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 15 of the last 26 sessions over 1.0.
Lots of pessimism.

Bulls and Bears: Both bulls and bears slipped a bit. Both are off their
highs and lows respectively, though bulls have lost more ground than bears
have gained.

Bulls: 46.1 versus 46.7

Bears: 23.1 versus 22.8

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.

Bulls: 46.1 versus 46.7
46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7
versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5%
versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus
45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2

Bears: 23.1 versus 22.8
22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2
versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7%
versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus
21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3%
versus 35.4%


Bonds (10 year): 1.80% versus 1.746%. After a gap higher off the 200 day
SMA Thursday, TLT gapped sharply lower to a lower low on this selloff.
Bonds have cracked.

Historical: 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74%
versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus
1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62% versus 1.625% versus 1.656%
versus 1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698% versus 1.70% versus 1.698% versus
1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54%
versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus
1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53%
versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%

EUR/USD: 1.0966 versus 1.10536. The euro continued its weeklong tumble
from the now failed August/September consolidation, closing in on the June
and July lows.

Historical: 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183
versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239
versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus
1.12259 versus 1.12061 versus 1.11898 versus 1.1151 versus 1.1177 versus
1.1155 versus 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335 versus
1.12318 versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545 versus
1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949 versus
1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251

USD/JPY: 104.201 versus 103.634. The dollar continues a trend upside,
breaking through the early September high Friday. Not a huge blast off but a
break of the last recovery high.

Historical: 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus 103.95 versus
103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus 102.035 versus
101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus 100.75 versus
101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386 versus 101.714 versus 101.956 versus
102.280 versus 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus
101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus
101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus
102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus
100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843

Oil: 50.35, -0.09. After surging to the June high early week, oil backed
off, but it appears to be just a test of the rally, holding at the 10 day
EMA Thursday with a nice doji, trading flat Friday. Higher inventories,
higher rig counts could not deter oil's advance.

Gold: 1255.50, -2.10. Gold is still licking its wounds after the massive
drop 2 weeks back. It broke the 200 day SMA and worked laterally just below
that level all week. It may still try to bounce a bit first, but it still
looks bearish. We want to enter GLD or other mining stocks (e.g. ABX) after
a modest bounce in gold prices stalls and starts to roll back over.


Volatility strikes back. After going dormant for more than a week as the
indices narrowed their ranges, suddenly the triple digit intraday moves
erupted again. That failed test of the resistance Monday followed by the
Tuesday sharp drop, and now the market is gyrating in the aftershocks again.
Just aftershocks that will settle down again or was Tuesday simply another
in a series of market quakes that started six Fridays back?

Earnings go full monty the coming week and we start to see just what Q3
really looked like itself and in the macro picture of the profits trend
lower. The start of the season was woeful but Friday looked much better
with a trio of good bank results from JPM, WFC, C. Heck, they should look
good as they are still getting money for nothing. Doesn't everyone wish
they could borrow from the Fed for next to nothing then use the money to buy
guaranteed return assets thus ensuring a profit? You have to ask the
question if they can why can't we? About the only thing the consumer has
going for him is a strengthening dollar. That is nice but thus far it has
not had an impact on rising oil prices, the usual effect of a higher dollar.
But, I digress.

Earnings season will be in full swing and we were wanting a pre-earnings
run. Not exactly a success at this stage. AAPL is more or less going to
plan but the rest of the market is hesitant, and looking at the index
patterns that is no mystery why. DJ30, SP500, SP400, RUTX have the rollover
look, and NASDAQ is not far from that more homely appearance. Can SOX hold
them up? More germane, can the Fed and the friend's of Janet (BOE, ECB)
hold them up? My goodness, man, an election depends upon it! How can the
US citizens decide to do what Wall Street wants them to do if there is
market turmoil? How did we ever get by before there was a Fed?

We picked up some downside positions last week, a few upside, cut some plays
that were problematic, but did not get too heavy into more buying as the
indices fought between themselves as to what trend would take control. As
of Friday that is still an open question though the downside looks stronger
technically, but the upside has SOX and the Fed on its side.

As for this week we are looking at some more upside and downside and still
have to be patient on getting really involved until one trend dominates.
There could be a bounce off of the lows in the range as defined by that
initial September selloff. A rebound back up to the top of the range is
playable, but until something changes, each move has to be viewed as more of
a trade on a bounce versus a new strong run. Moreover, with earnings
cranking up to full speed plays are somewhat truncated anyway.

Thus we here are looking at the new week as one of more downside opportunity
than upside after the late week action, though with this market it may take
a bounce off support back up into the range to set the next downside.
Overall, prognosis negative with the outlier of the Federal reserve and its
band of central banks ready to buy equities.

It is always interesting to hear the explanations for why the market does
one thing or another as if there is one story that catalyzes market moves.
Oh sure sometimes a major story explodes and markets do likewise. Other
times there is no major story so the speculation turns pretty creative. Last
week it was the notion on CNBC that not only did a Clinton win look more
certain but that it might lead to a sweep in the Congress as well. Thus the
market was selling because it wanted gridlock. Of course another financial
station argued that the more likely a Clinton victory appeared, the less
likely a Congressional sweep would occur because those who crossed over to
vote Clinton would still vote republican for the congressional races. It is
no wonder I am reading stories about people suffering from election related
ailments. It is enough to make your head hurt.

The key is going to be which direction DJ30, SP500, SP400 and RUTX take out
of this 6 week lateral move. When they break higher or lower, that is the
move we really get deeply involved with. Until then we make a few trades
with a little bit of money. We can make some great money with them if we
don't try for the long ball. If you do, this up and down action can grind
up your accounts. Just play for singles (to use baseball terminology since
it is the playoffs), take the gain, and be patient as we wait for the
indices to make their definitive break.

It is also fall, so go out and enjoy some of the better weather that most
are experiencing. Washington DC people may do what they can to louse it up,
but why not the rest of us do what we can to keep it at least a nice place
to be by being neighborly, friendly, and helpful. Oh yes, and use what they
are doing in DC to make us money in the market!

Have a great weekend!


NASDAQ: Closed at 5213.33

The 50 day EMA at 5221
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.

5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
The 200 day SMA at 4900
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks

S&P 500: Closed at 2132.55

2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 2165
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high

2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 200 day SMA at 2068
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high

Dow: Closed at 18,102.53

18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,357
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high

18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,640
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak


October 12 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/08 (7:00): -6.0% actual versus 2.9% prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, August (10:00): 5.443M actual versus 5.831M prior
(revised from 5.871M)
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (10:30): -2.976M prior
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (11:00): -2.976M prior
FOMC Minutes, September 21 (14:00)

October 13 - Thursday
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (12:00): -2.976M prior
Initial Claims, 10/08 (8:30): 246K actual versus 255K expected, 246K prior
(revised from 249K)
Continuing Claims, 10/01 (8:30): 2046K actual versus 2062K prior (revised
from 2058K)
Export Prices ex-ag., September (8:30): 0.4% actual versus -0.6% prior
(revised from -0.4%)
Import Prices ex-oil, September (8:30): 0.0% actual versus -0.1% prior
(revised from 0.0%)
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/08 (10:30): 79 bcf actual versus 80 bcf prior
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (11:00): 4.900M actual versus -2.976M prior
Treasury Budget, September (14:00): $90.9B prior

October 14 - Friday
PPI, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Core PPI, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail Sales, September (8:30): 0.6% expected, -0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, September (8:30): 0.5% expected, -0.1% prior
Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Mich Sentiment, October (10:00): 92.4 expected, 91.2 prior

End part 1 of 3
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1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439

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